BeHumble personal page - To The Moon

BeHumble

BeHumble

Mental clarity

11Follow

8Followers

0Topic

0Badge

2022-11-02

6

Strategas: There is no so-called Fed turn, and the long-term trend of U.S. stocks is still unclear

Go to Tiger App to see more news

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"userPageInfo":{"id":"4104784689184940","uuid":"4104784689184940","gmtCreate":1641681620997,"gmtModify":1664870989840,"name":"BeHumble","pinyin":"behumble","introduction":"","introductionEn":"","signature":"Mental clarity","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/2473e423ee6a904f09b87ca954b59e22","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":8,"headSize":11,"tweetSize":3,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":999,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":1,"name":"萌萌虎","nameTw":"萌萌虎","represent":"呱呱坠地","factor":"评论帖子3次或发布1条主帖（非转发）","iconColor":"3C9E83","bgColor":"A2F1D9"},"themeCounts":0,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":3,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":"init","userBadges":[{"badgeId":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493-2","templateUuid":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493","name":"Senior Tiger","description":"Join the tiger community for 1000 days","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0063fb68ea29c9ae6858c58630e182d5","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96c699a93be4214d4b49aea6a5a5d1a4","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35b0e542a9ff77046ed69ef602bc105d","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2025.02.08","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},{"badgeId":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03-2","templateUuid":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03","name":"Executive Tiger","description":"The transaction amount of the securities account reaches $300,000","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d20b23f1b6335407f882bc5c2ad12c0","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ada3b4533518ace8404a3f6dd192bd29","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/177f283ba21d1c077054dac07f88f3bd","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2025.01.07","exceedPercentage":"80.34%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1101},{"badgeId":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be-3","templateUuid":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be","name":"Legendary Trader","description":"Total number of securities or futures transactions reached 300","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/656db16598a0b8f21429e10d6c1cb033","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03f10910d4dd9234f9b5702a3342193a","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c767e35268feb729d50d3fa9a386c5a","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2024.05.07","exceedPercentage":"93.18%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},{"badgeId":"7a9f168ff73447fe856ed6c938b61789-1","templateUuid":"7a9f168ff73447fe856ed6c938b61789","name":"Knowledgeable Investor","description":"Traded more than 10 stocks","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e74cc24115c4fbae6154ec1b1041bf47","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d48265cbfd97c57f9048db29f22227b0","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76c6d6898b073c77e1c537ebe9ac1c57","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2022.11.15","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1102},{"badgeId":"29815c1501c442c58b708482689df577-1","templateUuid":"29815c1501c442c58b708482689df577","name":"Emerging Contributor","description":"Contributors who received Editor's Pick for the 1st time","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ce9180a952c61a51c39f70d533b81a7","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f98cf16cf4b858114f7ab9a779f9e6f1","grayImgUrl":null,"redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":"https://ttm.financial/TW/9000980585","hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2022.11.07","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":2005},{"badgeId":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84-1","templateUuid":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84","name":"Real Trader","description":"Completed a transaction","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2022.07.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100}],"userBadgeCount":6,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84-1","templateUuid":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84","name":"Real Trader","description":"Completed a transaction","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2022.07.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":null,"starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":0,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"baikeInfo":{},"tab":"post","tweets":[{"id":9985104313,"gmtCreate":1667339995732,"gmtModify":1676537898884,"author":{"id":"4104784689184940","authorId":"4104784689184940","name":"BeHumble","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/2473e423ee6a904f09b87ca954b59e22","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4104784689184940","idStr":"4104784689184940"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"6","listText":"6","text":"6","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9985104313","repostId":"2280552315","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2280552315","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1667316729,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2280552315?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-01 23:32","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Strategas: There is no so-called Fed turn, and the long-term trend of U.S. stocks is still unclear","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2280552315","media":"智通财经网","summary":"Strategas分析师Chris  Verrone表示，利率市场仍对美联储的鸽派倾向持怀疑态度，股票市场或许持有不同观点。尽管对于美联储是否转向的争论喋喋不休，但市场对它的看法并没有改变：实际上不存","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Strategas analyst Chris Verrone said that the interest rate market is still skeptical of the Fed's dovish bias, and the stock market may hold a different view. Despite the chatter over the debate about whether the Fed will pivot, the market's perception of it hasn't changed: there's actually no such thing as a pivot.</p><p>Three-month Eurodollar futures yields in March 2023 remain above 5%, Verrone said. Last week, the 3-month U.S. bond and the 10-year U.S. bond were inverted just like the 2-year U.S. bond and the 10-year U.S. bond.</p><p>Investors should also be wary of equating peak inflation with peak yields, he noted.</p><p>\"We will be careful to establish this connection. In about 16,000 trading days since 1960, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has been above CPI about 85% of the time. It is not uncommon in history that the CPI will return to 3% or 4% next year while the yield remains at 4% or 5%.\"</p><p>The analyst sees the bar for a reversal in the S&P 500 as high: \"There are indeed seasonal factors in the market right now, but if there is to be a sustained or directional move, the long-term trend still needs to be repaired.\"</p><p>Currently, nearly 40% of the S&P 500 components are running above the 200-day moving average. Verrone believes it is difficult to make money consistently in this situation. If the market is really healing itself, it will face a huge test.</p><p>The Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 have fallen to new lows recently, and while they may be oversold in the short term, the downtrend is still clear.</p><p>Verrone said investors should continue to pay attention to sectors with stronger trends and avoid weaker trends. In sectors such as consumer goods options, information technology, materials, communication services, utilities and real estate, the proportion of constituent stocks above the 200-day moving average is lower than that of the overall S&P index.</p><p>Energy is the leading sector, with 91% of the constituent stocks above the 200-day moving average. The industrial sector is expected to become the new leader in the market.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Strategas: There is no so-called Fed turn, and the long-term trend of U.S. stocks is still unclear</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStrategas: There is no so-called Fed turn, and the long-term trend of U.S. stocks is still unclear\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经网</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-11-01 23:32</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Strategas analyst Chris Verrone said that the interest rate market is still skeptical of the Fed's dovish bias, and the stock market may hold a different view. Despite the chatter over the debate about whether the Fed will pivot, the market's perception of it hasn't changed: there's actually no such thing as a pivot.</p><p>Three-month Eurodollar futures yields in March 2023 remain above 5%, Verrone said. Last week, the 3-month U.S. bond and the 10-year U.S. bond were inverted just like the 2-year U.S. bond and the 10-year U.S. bond.</p><p>Investors should also be wary of equating peak inflation with peak yields, he noted.</p><p>\"We will be careful to establish this connection. In about 16,000 trading days since 1960, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has been above CPI about 85% of the time. It is not uncommon in history that the CPI will return to 3% or 4% next year while the yield remains at 4% or 5%.\"</p><p>The analyst sees the bar for a reversal in the S&P 500 as high: \"There are indeed seasonal factors in the market right now, but if there is to be a sustained or directional move, the long-term trend still needs to be repaired.\"</p><p>Currently, nearly 40% of the S&P 500 components are running above the 200-day moving average. Verrone believes it is difficult to make money consistently in this situation. If the market is really healing itself, it will face a huge test.</p><p>The Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 have fallen to new lows recently, and while they may be oversold in the short term, the downtrend is still clear.</p><p>Verrone said investors should continue to pay attention to sectors with stronger trends and avoid weaker trends. In sectors such as consumer goods options, information technology, materials, communication services, utilities and real estate, the proportion of constituent stocks above the 200-day moving average is lower than that of the overall S&P index.</p><p>Energy is the leading sector, with 91% of the constituent stocks above the 200-day moving average. The industrial sector is expected to become the new leader in the market.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/821302.html\">智通财经网</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f661cac281478d469fe3de13c74563b2","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","BK4581":"高盛持仓",".DJI":"道琼斯","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","BK4504":"桥水持仓","SPY":"标普500ETF","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","OEX":"标普100","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/821302.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"2280552315","content_text":"Strategas分析师Chris  Verrone表示，利率市场仍对美联储的鸽派倾向持怀疑态度，股票市场或许持有不同观点。尽管对于美联储是否转向的争论喋喋不休，但市场对它的看法并没有改变：实际上不存在所谓的转向。Verrone称，2023年3月的三个月欧洲美元期货收益率仍高于5%。上周，3个月期美债与10年期美债如同2年期美债与10年期美债的情形，出现了倒挂。他指出，投资者还应该警惕将通胀峰值与收益率峰值等同起来。“我们会小心地建立这种联系。在1960年以来的大约16000个交易日中，10年期美债收益率在大约85%的时间里高于CPI。明年CPI回到3%或4%而收益率仍保持在4%或5%的情况在历史上并不罕见。”该分析师认为标普500指数反转的门槛很高：“现在市场确实存在季节性因素，但如果要出现持续或定向的走势，则仍需要修复长期趋势。”目前，近40%的标普500指数成分股运行于200天移动平均线之上。Verrone认为这种情况很难持续赚钱。如果市场真的在自我修复，将面临巨大的考验。纳斯达克100指数与标普500指数近期跌至新低，虽然可能在短期内超卖，但下跌趋势仍然很明显。Verrone表示，投资者应继续关注趋势较强的板块，避免趋势较弱的。可选消费品、信息技术、材料、通信服务、公用事业和房地产等板块中，在200天均线上方的成分股比例均低于整体标普指数。能源是领涨板块，91%的成分股位于200天均线上方。工业板块则有望成为市场的新领导者。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"NQmain":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"SH":0.6,".IXIC":1,"SPY":1,".DJI":1,"QQQ":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"DJX":0.6,"QID":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"IVV":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":299,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9985104313,"gmtCreate":1667339995732,"gmtModify":1676537898884,"author":{"id":"4104784689184940","authorId":"4104784689184940","name":"BeHumble","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/2473e423ee6a904f09b87ca954b59e22","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4104784689184940","idStr":"4104784689184940"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"6","listText":"6","text":"6","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9985104313","repostId":"2280552315","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2280552315","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1667316729,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2280552315?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-01 23:32","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Strategas: There is no so-called Fed turn, and the long-term trend of U.S. stocks is still unclear","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2280552315","media":"智通财经网","summary":"Strategas分析师Chris  Verrone表示，利率市场仍对美联储的鸽派倾向持怀疑态度，股票市场或许持有不同观点。尽管对于美联储是否转向的争论喋喋不休，但市场对它的看法并没有改变：实际上不存","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Strategas analyst Chris Verrone said that the interest rate market is still skeptical of the Fed's dovish bias, and the stock market may hold a different view. Despite the chatter over the debate about whether the Fed will pivot, the market's perception of it hasn't changed: there's actually no such thing as a pivot.</p><p>Three-month Eurodollar futures yields in March 2023 remain above 5%, Verrone said. Last week, the 3-month U.S. bond and the 10-year U.S. bond were inverted just like the 2-year U.S. bond and the 10-year U.S. bond.</p><p>Investors should also be wary of equating peak inflation with peak yields, he noted.</p><p>\"We will be careful to establish this connection. In about 16,000 trading days since 1960, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has been above CPI about 85% of the time. It is not uncommon in history that the CPI will return to 3% or 4% next year while the yield remains at 4% or 5%.\"</p><p>The analyst sees the bar for a reversal in the S&P 500 as high: \"There are indeed seasonal factors in the market right now, but if there is to be a sustained or directional move, the long-term trend still needs to be repaired.\"</p><p>Currently, nearly 40% of the S&P 500 components are running above the 200-day moving average. Verrone believes it is difficult to make money consistently in this situation. If the market is really healing itself, it will face a huge test.</p><p>The Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 have fallen to new lows recently, and while they may be oversold in the short term, the downtrend is still clear.</p><p>Verrone said investors should continue to pay attention to sectors with stronger trends and avoid weaker trends. In sectors such as consumer goods options, information technology, materials, communication services, utilities and real estate, the proportion of constituent stocks above the 200-day moving average is lower than that of the overall S&P index.</p><p>Energy is the leading sector, with 91% of the constituent stocks above the 200-day moving average. The industrial sector is expected to become the new leader in the market.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Strategas: There is no so-called Fed turn, and the long-term trend of U.S. stocks is still unclear</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStrategas: There is no so-called Fed turn, and the long-term trend of U.S. stocks is still unclear\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经网</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-11-01 23:32</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Strategas analyst Chris Verrone said that the interest rate market is still skeptical of the Fed's dovish bias, and the stock market may hold a different view. Despite the chatter over the debate about whether the Fed will pivot, the market's perception of it hasn't changed: there's actually no such thing as a pivot.</p><p>Three-month Eurodollar futures yields in March 2023 remain above 5%, Verrone said. Last week, the 3-month U.S. bond and the 10-year U.S. bond were inverted just like the 2-year U.S. bond and the 10-year U.S. bond.</p><p>Investors should also be wary of equating peak inflation with peak yields, he noted.</p><p>\"We will be careful to establish this connection. In about 16,000 trading days since 1960, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has been above CPI about 85% of the time. It is not uncommon in history that the CPI will return to 3% or 4% next year while the yield remains at 4% or 5%.\"</p><p>The analyst sees the bar for a reversal in the S&P 500 as high: \"There are indeed seasonal factors in the market right now, but if there is to be a sustained or directional move, the long-term trend still needs to be repaired.\"</p><p>Currently, nearly 40% of the S&P 500 components are running above the 200-day moving average. Verrone believes it is difficult to make money consistently in this situation. If the market is really healing itself, it will face a huge test.</p><p>The Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 have fallen to new lows recently, and while they may be oversold in the short term, the downtrend is still clear.</p><p>Verrone said investors should continue to pay attention to sectors with stronger trends and avoid weaker trends. In sectors such as consumer goods options, information technology, materials, communication services, utilities and real estate, the proportion of constituent stocks above the 200-day moving average is lower than that of the overall S&P index.</p><p>Energy is the leading sector, with 91% of the constituent stocks above the 200-day moving average. The industrial sector is expected to become the new leader in the market.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/821302.html\">智通财经网</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f661cac281478d469fe3de13c74563b2","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","BK4581":"高盛持仓",".DJI":"道琼斯","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","BK4504":"桥水持仓","SPY":"标普500ETF","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","OEX":"标普100","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/821302.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"2280552315","content_text":"Strategas分析师Chris  Verrone表示，利率市场仍对美联储的鸽派倾向持怀疑态度，股票市场或许持有不同观点。尽管对于美联储是否转向的争论喋喋不休，但市场对它的看法并没有改变：实际上不存在所谓的转向。Verrone称，2023年3月的三个月欧洲美元期货收益率仍高于5%。上周，3个月期美债与10年期美债如同2年期美债与10年期美债的情形，出现了倒挂。他指出，投资者还应该警惕将通胀峰值与收益率峰值等同起来。“我们会小心地建立这种联系。在1960年以来的大约16000个交易日中，10年期美债收益率在大约85%的时间里高于CPI。明年CPI回到3%或4%而收益率仍保持在4%或5%的情况在历史上并不罕见。”该分析师认为标普500指数反转的门槛很高：“现在市场确实存在季节性因素，但如果要出现持续或定向的走势，则仍需要修复长期趋势。”目前，近40%的标普500指数成分股运行于200天移动平均线之上。Verrone认为这种情况很难持续赚钱。如果市场真的在自我修复，将面临巨大的考验。纳斯达克100指数与标普500指数近期跌至新低，虽然可能在短期内超卖，但下跌趋势仍然很明显。Verrone表示，投资者应继续关注趋势较强的板块，避免趋势较弱的。可选消费品、信息技术、材料、通信服务、公用事业和房地产等板块中，在200天均线上方的成分股比例均低于整体标普指数。能源是领涨板块，91%的成分股位于200天均线上方。工业板块则有望成为市场的新领导者。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"NQmain":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"SH":0.6,".IXIC":1,"SPY":1,".DJI":1,"QQQ":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"DJX":0.6,"QID":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"IVV":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":299,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}