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Imthiyas

Imthiyas

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10-29

I don't trust you anything you say , regarding Tesla, please you are not eligible to analyse the Top businessman mind .,

Tesla: A Rare Opportunity Presents Itself (Rating Upgrade)

10-28

This writer is negative on Tesla, readers just scroll down the rubbish , and load up on Tesla.

Tesla: Don't Be Fooled By The Market

10-25

You are misguiding the buisness and Elon musk hate the short sellers he will wipe out all short sellers.

Tesla Faces Major Risks In The Future

10-25

Bull shit your analysis every time, stop posting your views.

Tesla Faces Major Risks In The Future

03-18

$Marathon Digital Holdings Inc(MARA)$ Guys see the volume the big shots already got good volume in 40 percent discount price still they trying to get weak hearted to dump and gather before it starts to shoot up, I always suggest don't dump in cheap,please have patience,if you are weak hearted this counter is not suitable,,

03-15

$Marathon Digital Holdings Inc(MARA)$ today is the last day to Board, if miss you all will regret of not boarding the flight to the moon,, If you hang tight never give up you will be rewarded,,,

03-08

$Marathon Digital Holdings Inc(MARA)$ Don't listen noises, just don't sell at cheap, to the , it is under Grade A stock now💐 Just Hold it , patience will pay you

03-08

$Marathon Digital Holdings Inc(MARA)$ guys remember my commentS I said it will go 27 and above,, Guys don't sell by panic and frustrations, keep patience, it will easily go 30 and above, either a real rebound will come soon or a short squeeze may happen very soon, Holddddddd

02-27

$Marathon Digital Holdings Inc(MARA)$ guys remember my commentS I said it will go 27 and above,,

02-09

You are talking always negative about this counter, don't guide wrongly , your predictions are wrong,

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2023-11-23

Recession is not going to come, dare To accumulate high percentage return stocks,,

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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don't trust you anything you say , regarding Tesla, please you are not eligible to analyse the Top businessman mind .,&nbsp;","listText":"I don't trust you anything you say , regarding Tesla, please you are not eligible to analyse the Top businessman mind .,&nbsp;","text":"I don't trust you anything you say , regarding Tesla, please you are not eligible to analyse the Top businessman mind .,","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/365237912133688","repostId":"1130557209","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1130557209","pubTimestamp":1730178672,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1130557209?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-10-29 13:11","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla: A Rare Opportunity Presents Itself (Rating Upgrade)","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1130557209","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryTesla, Inc.'s Q3 2024 report and Robotaxi event provided enough insights and details to allow proper valuation of the segment.Most business segments are revised up in my intrinsic valuation, bo","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2 id=\"id_1110977808\">Summary</h2><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Tesla, Inc.&#39;s Q3 2024 report and Robotaxi event provided enough insights and details to allow proper valuation of the segment.</p></li><li><p>Most business segments are revised up in my intrinsic valuation, both in terms of growth and profitability.</p></li><li><p>The energy segment shows exponential growth both in terms of sales and gross margins. This should be a core driver moving forward.</p></li><li><p>Tesla trades at fair intrinsic value without valuing the robotics segment. This provides optionality where investors get robotics for free, whatever it may output in the future.</p></li></ul><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ea846c85f05cf55e98aebf60aa138e07\" alt=\"10th Annual Breakthrough Prize Ceremony\" title=\"10th Annual Breakthrough Prize Ceremony\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\"/><span>10th Annual Breakthrough Prize Ceremony</span></p><p></p><p>My approach to <strong>Tesla, Inc.</strong> (NASDAQ:TSLA) has been laid out in two previous articles on Seeking Alpha (article 1, article 2). It revolves around paying for the tangible core business segments and receiving the potential segments for free. When I value the business, I only value the segments that exist today or that have a clear roadmap and that contribute to the core drivers of the business. Segments like Robotaxi and robotics were previously excluded due to the lack of information regarding output and timelines.</p><p>However, as of the Q3 2024 report, we now have a lot more tangible details regarding Robotaxi and I can now incorporate that segment into my valuation. With some new details regarding the business, Tesla is now undervalued and a buy again, despite the recent surge in the stock price.</p><p>I will break down each segment of my sum-of-the-parts valuation model and walk you through the input changes from my previous two articles, which were more detailed per segment. I recommend reading either one, or both, of my previous articles for more details regarding each segment, as I think articles will start to become very bloated if I reiterate each detail over and over. Instead, the focus is on identifying hints that help us project future drivers for the business as well as looking for a positive outlook for the shorter term.</p><h2 id=\"id_2078300066\">Automotive</h2><p>With the recent Robotaxi event, we gained some details about the production and price point of Cybercab. In addition, during the Q3 earnings call, CEO Elon Musk mentioned the following:</p><blockquote><p>I do feel confident of Cybercab reaching volume production in &#39;26. So just starting production, reaching volume production in &#39;26. And that&#39;s -- that should be substantial. And we&#39;re aiming for at least 2 million units a year of Cybercab. That&#39;ll be in more than one factory, but I think it&#39;s at least 2 million units a year, maybe 4 million ultimately.</p></blockquote><p>The details are a bit up for interpretation, but my takeaway is that Elon Musk projects roughly 2 million vehicles per year as of 2026, scaling up to 4 million vehicles. If we take the price point into consideration, which was said to be ~$30,000, that results in a net addition of ~$60 billion per year in automotive revenue by 2026 from Cybercab alone. There are some problems with the statement, though, as Tesla does not have the capacity for that output as of the time of writing.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/bf79fce18f42ec6c508bbe8c0bfd6232\" alt=\"Tesla production capacity\" title=\"Tesla production capacity\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"318\"/><span>Tesla production capacity</span></p><p></p><p>With their current capacity, they would have to sack current models to reach that, which would impact revenues negatively as the automotive segment is doing ~$75 billion on a trailing 12-month basis currently. What is more likely is that capacity will increase, and we will likely see new factories being built out to support the projected output. We will keep this in mind as we will have to project higher capital expenditures in the reinvestment portion of our valuation model later.</p><p>The sensible approach, in my opinion, is to account for a slight increase in market share as of 2026 and onwards, to accommodate the launch of Cybercabs, and also increase the operating margins of these vehicles. In my opinion, it is likely that the Cybercab platform will be easier and cheaper to manufacture than current lineups, driving higher margins.</p><p>The assumptions are also supported by this comment from the Q3 earnings call, also made by CEO Elon Musk:</p><blockquote><p></p><p>I do want to give some rough estimate, which is I think it&#39;s 20% to 30% vehicle growth next year [...]</p><p>I think with our lower-cost vehicles with the advent of autonomy something like a 20% to 30% growth next year is my best guess.</p></blockquote><p>Here are my updated projections for the automotive segment, reflecting a slight increase in market share as well as a margin improvement.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/79ab14b84cb766b2a77752de53614d89\" alt=\"Automotive projections\" title=\"Automotive projections\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"94\"/><span>Automotive projections</span></p><p></p><p>In the shorter term, investors were given plenty of positive catalysts, which likely contributed to the market rewarding Tesla with a +22% share price increase on the day following the Q3 earnings. First, deliveries were up year-over-year (YoY) for the first time in 2024, and it came with a 137 basis points gross margin improvement YoY, which at 19.6% is the best recorded gross profit margin since Q1 of 2023 (20.5%). This comes as the Chinese market picks up and accelerates again, breaking a potential downtrend that had investors worried.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/dbd33515998637b7b9ac14f1f6e5361e\" alt=\"Tesla automotive geographical revenue\" title=\"Tesla automotive geographical revenue\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"324\"/><span>Tesla automotive geographical revenue</span></p><p></p><p>Another positive note is that capacity utilization increased by 10% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ), breaking another negative downtrend while still delivering ~100% of production output. This means that every car being produced is also sold, not taking inventory into consideration. The reason we sometimes see periods with more than 100% deliveries as a percentage of production is when inventory is clearing out in addition to new production.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/08a5434d482345b41577666399e93bb0\" alt=\"Tesla deliveries and production\" title=\"Tesla deliveries and production\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"317\"/><span>Tesla deliveries and production</span></p><p></p><h2 id=\"id_3058587934\">Energy</h2><p>Compared to my first article, the energy segment has been cut down to only account for the energy generation and storage part of Tesla since we no longer get information regarding the solar business since Q4 of 2023. We are currently witnessing a massive expansion of this segment by Tesla, both in storage deployment and recorded sales. Q3 of 2024 proves that the prior quarter of 157% YoY growth in deployment was not a mere anomaly but a new exponential growth curve forming. While Q3 was not quite as impressive, Tesla still grew the quarter 73% YoY against a much more difficult comparison period compared to Q2.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d08df47b9aa229945e48bf82b843a387\" alt=\"Tesla Energy generation and storage\" title=\"Tesla Energy generation and storage\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"318\"/><span>Tesla Energy generation and storage</span></p><p></p><p>While Q3 recorded ~$600 million less revenue compared to Q2, the difference in gross profit was only $15 million. Tesla is becoming increasingly profitable in this segment, which has led me to increase my profitability projections for the segment as well as drive slightly stronger revenues into the future as it is proving to be a core segment.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/888b7a28abb608f08b6f5d6b74e86afa\" alt=\"Tesla energy gross profit and margins\" title=\"Tesla energy gross profit and margins\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"293\"/><span>Tesla energy gross profit and margins</span></p><p></p><p>I have left the ending period&#39;s operating margin the same and only ramped up how quickly they get there, as I still can&#39;t tell a story in my valuation where Tesla exceeds 23% operating margins for the segment. As for an increase in revenues, I only adjusted 2024 and 2025 to reflect the accelerated pace, but ultimately, the periods onwards are left in accordance with my previous projections. I already accounted for energy being a large driver, and I only really got hints of an accelerated route to reach the end goal, but not enough to change the goalpost. Elon notes the following during the earnings call, supporting the current outlook:</p><blockquote><p>So, let&#39;s see. And we also have the energy storage business is growing like wildfire, with strong demand for both Megapack and Powerwall.</p></blockquote><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/eeb55be9fa5afacb313e6c72e8249722\" alt=\"Tesla energy projections\" title=\"Tesla energy projections\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"67\"/><span>Tesla energy projections</span></p><p></p><h2 id=\"id_1127281948\">Services excluding Robotaxi and Robotics</h2><p>I have divided the services segment into multiple parts, historically excluding robotaxi and robotics as these are separate segments in my valuation sum-of-the-parts model. Instead, services mainly consist of automotive servicing as well as full self-driving (FSD). Tesla gives us very little information to work with for this segment; therefore, I have to make many assumptions. For the automotive servicing segment, I have based the margin profile to be in line with industry standards more or less. There is an increase towards the latter periods to account for Tesla&#39;s efficiency and growth in miscellaneous line items attributed to servicing, such as spare parts manufacturing. The revenue reflects a percentage of automotive sales, partly in line with historical averages, but also accounting for an increase in efficiencies. There are no changes to this segment compared to previous articles.</p><p>However, the FSD segment has received some assumption changes to reflect the recent Robotaxi event. This is mainly represented in an increase in the adoption rate, ramping up a bit faster after the launch of the Cybercab in 2026. Unfortunately, Tesla does not disclose adoption rates for FSD, and there are various reports citing anything from a 5% adoption rate to something like 20% at the time of writing. I have a more modest approach, believing the FSD adoption rate is in the single digits right now, and after more widespread regulatory approval of the technology, I believe it will reach up to ~40% by 2033. If we are to believe CEO Elon Musk, it should be significantly higher, as the future is said to be fully autonomous by the CEO. However, I believe my current projections reflect the reality provided by the information we have available today.</p><p>The way I calculate FSD revenue is to assume a 5-year life length per vehicle. I then get an estimated vehicle sales figure by dividing the current average sales price by the projected future revenue. The reason I don&#39;t try to adjust the median cost per vehicle in my model is because there are too many variables affecting future median sales prices for the Tesla fleet. For one, we have no idea what the fleet is composed of 10 years out, what they&#39;ll be selling for, what the inflation rates will look like, and so forth. I take the simple approach of adjusting the model to use the latest available median cost per vehicle, which is calculated by dividing automotive revenues by automotive deliveries not subject to operating leases.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ee3f7819d9ab7e4d89634e7df37be715\" alt=\"Tesla vehicle deliveries and average sales price\" title=\"Tesla vehicle deliveries and average sales price\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"318\"/><span>Tesla vehicle deliveries and average sales price</span></p><p></p><p>The reason this calculation is important is that it impacts the FSD revenue because I calculate FSD revenue by multiplying the assumed FSD annual cost (subscription) by the trailing twelve months of vehicles on FSD, calculated by using the adoption rate. This method may inflate the vehicles sold per period, but by having a conservative approach to the adoption rate, it normalizes the figure.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/de8c98731cc6fd2c9288fe5b05e7ab90\" alt=\"Tesla FSD sales\" title=\"Tesla FSD sales\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"138\"/><span>Tesla FSD sales</span></p><p></p><h2 id=\"id_1178059110\">Robotaxi</h2><p>In my two previous articles, I excluded the Robotaxi segment from the base model because it was not much more than speculation as a result of a few hints by Tesla. Now the segment is a lot more tangible, with specific timelines and figures given to support it. As such, I have decided not to include it as part of optionality any longer, but instead incorporate it into my main model. However, it is still modeled to leave a lot of margin of safety. This means that I am actively valuing the segment, and I am paying for it. Before, whatever Robotaxi results would have been, they would have been given to me &#34;for free&#34; as long as I purchased shares below intrinsic value.</p><p>This segment does not include actual sales of Cybercabs; instead, it focuses on the service, meaning the software and application. The way I approach Robotaxi revenue is to look at the ride-hailing market projections and assume a market share of this. Operating margins are significantly higher than companies like Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER) since the operations will exclude plenty of expenses that UBER has to incur. For one, the main expense associated with Robotaxis will be FSD as well as the actual vehicle production costs, none of which are included in this segment.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/df888393e50c626721ce670356ea4d54\" alt=\"Robotaxi projections\" title=\"Robotaxi projections\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"70\"/><span>Robotaxi projections</span></p><p></p><p>I don&#39;t think the solution will have wide regulatory approval any time in this decade, and as such, the market share I assign Tesla is relatively low. The ride-hailing market is not particularly crowded; there are only a few main businesses operating within it. However, once regulatory approval is more widely spread, Tesla will have a quick scaling mechanism, as not only Cybercabs will be eligible for the service but also all Teslas. Elon Musk mentions that there won&#39;t really be a need for parking spaces anymore, as a Robotaxi fleet can operate around the clock.</p><p>Tesla owners can connect their vehicles to the network and make money whenever they don&#39;t make use of their vehicles themselves. It&#39;s an interesting concept and one that may be a highly lucrative business in and of itself, but it is still too early to put too much faith into overly bullish projections for the segment. It starts off in 2026 with a ~0.21% market share and tops off at ~14% in 2033. These figures will likely have to be constantly monitored and updated as we grow closer to the launch of the Cybercab.</p><h2 id=\"id_404536890\">Valuation</h2><p>Now that we have our projections, we can incorporate all the segments in our sum-of-the-parts valuation model and create our intrinsic valuation. There are a few key assumptions made:</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>The discount rate is composed of the implied equity risk premium for the month of October (as calculated by Professor Aswath Damodaran), the risk-free rate, and a rather hefty execution risk of 2% assigned by me for Tesla. The execution risk reflects high uncertainty in future performance relative to more predictable businesses.</p></li><li><p>The terminal growth rate is anchored to the risk-free rate. Some like to set a static figure here like 2 or 3%, but economists can&#39;t forecast the next quarter&#39;s economic growth, let alone more than 10 periods out. Instead of using a historical average, I use a rate that reflects the implied economic growth set by the market at the time of the valuation, with the risk-free rate as a proxy for that.</p></li><li><p>Stock-based compensation, or SBC, is accounted for by diluting the outstanding share per period and calculating free cash flow to the firm on a per-share basis. As stock-based compensation is not a cash expense, it should not affect free cash flow. However, it is important to capture the dilutive effect of this type of compensation, and the best approach, in my opinion, is to dilute the outstanding shares per period.</p></li></ul><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9fc697ff3139cbc1793c9a2f51aea5b6\" alt=\"Tesla DCF model\" title=\"Tesla DCF model\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\"/><span>Tesla DCF model</span></p><p></p><p>These inputs give me a fair intrinsic value per share of ~$273, roughly in line with the closing price as of Friday, the 25th of October. This is after Tesla&#39;s massive increase in share price after the Q3 earnings report. Tesla at around fair intrinsic value is a buy for me, especially considering that we have the optionality of not paying for the robotics or supercharger network segment. Whatever these two segments may contribute to the future, we receive it for free by not valuing them in our sum-of-the-parts model.</p><h2 id=\"id_4145974097\">Risks</h2><p>Whenever you value a business where most of the value is terminal, meaning outside the projection periods, you really have to be cautious in your projections. It is easy to get swept up in the hype from the CEO, claiming there is merit to the ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) projections of reaching $20-30 trillion of market cap in the years to come. Here is a quote from the Q2 earnings call:</p><blockquote><p>That&#39;s why my rough estimate long-term is in accordance with the ARK [ph] Invest analysis of market cap on the order of $5 trillion for -- maybe more for autonomous transport, and it&#39;s several times that number for general purpose humanoid robots.</p></blockquote><p>I try to be sensible in my approach and root the assumptions in a more cautious approach backed by what is tangible. It is important to have an understanding of the future outlook of the business and track it closely. Some I choose to be careful regarding Tesla, as investors can really be swept away in the tides of excitement. Tesla is an exciting company, but be careful what you pay for.</p><h2 id=\"id_1078179166\">Summary</h2><p>The period between Q2 and Q3 earnings in 2024 provided investors with a lot of new insight and input into the business. Tesla has given comments for each business driver, which can be extrapolated into future periods, even though a cautious approach is advisable. Most segments in my sum-of-the-parts have seen revisions to the upside in terms of growth and profitability, and with the addition of Robotaxi as a segment, it is now fairly valued.</p><p>Any time I can get a wonderful business like Tesla at fair value that usually trades overvalued, it&#39;s an opportunity. Most of the value is terminal, and as such, I tend to be cautious with my projections. With a proper margin of safety and plenty of optionality in terms of the robotics segment, I have upgraded Tesla to a buy from a hold.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla: A Rare Opportunity Presents Itself (Rating Upgrade)</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla: A Rare Opportunity Presents Itself (Rating Upgrade)\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-10-29 13:11 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4730129-tesla-rare-opportunity-presents-itself-rating-upgrade><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryTesla, Inc.'s Q3 2024 report and Robotaxi event provided enough insights and details to allow proper valuation of the segment.Most business segments are revised up in my intrinsic valuation, ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4730129-tesla-rare-opportunity-presents-itself-rating-upgrade\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4730129-tesla-rare-opportunity-presents-itself-rating-upgrade","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1130557209","content_text":"SummaryTesla, Inc.'s Q3 2024 report and Robotaxi event provided enough insights and details to allow proper valuation of the segment.Most business segments are revised up in my intrinsic valuation, both in terms of growth and profitability.The energy segment shows exponential growth both in terms of sales and gross margins. This should be a core driver moving forward.Tesla trades at fair intrinsic value without valuing the robotics segment. This provides optionality where investors get robotics for free, whatever it may output in the future.10th Annual Breakthrough Prize CeremonyMy approach to Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) has been laid out in two previous articles on Seeking Alpha (article 1, article 2). It revolves around paying for the tangible core business segments and receiving the potential segments for free. When I value the business, I only value the segments that exist today or that have a clear roadmap and that contribute to the core drivers of the business. Segments like Robotaxi and robotics were previously excluded due to the lack of information regarding output and timelines.However, as of the Q3 2024 report, we now have a lot more tangible details regarding Robotaxi and I can now incorporate that segment into my valuation. With some new details regarding the business, Tesla is now undervalued and a buy again, despite the recent surge in the stock price.I will break down each segment of my sum-of-the-parts valuation model and walk you through the input changes from my previous two articles, which were more detailed per segment. I recommend reading either one, or both, of my previous articles for more details regarding each segment, as I think articles will start to become very bloated if I reiterate each detail over and over. Instead, the focus is on identifying hints that help us project future drivers for the business as well as looking for a positive outlook for the shorter term.AutomotiveWith the recent Robotaxi event, we gained some details about the production and price point of Cybercab. In addition, during the Q3 earnings call, CEO Elon Musk mentioned the following:I do feel confident of Cybercab reaching volume production in '26. So just starting production, reaching volume production in '26. And that's -- that should be substantial. And we're aiming for at least 2 million units a year of Cybercab. That'll be in more than one factory, but I think it's at least 2 million units a year, maybe 4 million ultimately.The details are a bit up for interpretation, but my takeaway is that Elon Musk projects roughly 2 million vehicles per year as of 2026, scaling up to 4 million vehicles. If we take the price point into consideration, which was said to be ~$30,000, that results in a net addition of ~$60 billion per year in automotive revenue by 2026 from Cybercab alone. There are some problems with the statement, though, as Tesla does not have the capacity for that output as of the time of writing.Tesla production capacityWith their current capacity, they would have to sack current models to reach that, which would impact revenues negatively as the automotive segment is doing ~$75 billion on a trailing 12-month basis currently. What is more likely is that capacity will increase, and we will likely see new factories being built out to support the projected output. We will keep this in mind as we will have to project higher capital expenditures in the reinvestment portion of our valuation model later.The sensible approach, in my opinion, is to account for a slight increase in market share as of 2026 and onwards, to accommodate the launch of Cybercabs, and also increase the operating margins of these vehicles. In my opinion, it is likely that the Cybercab platform will be easier and cheaper to manufacture than current lineups, driving higher margins.The assumptions are also supported by this comment from the Q3 earnings call, also made by CEO Elon Musk:I do want to give some rough estimate, which is I think it's 20% to 30% vehicle growth next year [...]I think with our lower-cost vehicles with the advent of autonomy something like a 20% to 30% growth next year is my best guess.Here are my updated projections for the automotive segment, reflecting a slight increase in market share as well as a margin improvement.Automotive projectionsIn the shorter term, investors were given plenty of positive catalysts, which likely contributed to the market rewarding Tesla with a +22% share price increase on the day following the Q3 earnings. First, deliveries were up year-over-year (YoY) for the first time in 2024, and it came with a 137 basis points gross margin improvement YoY, which at 19.6% is the best recorded gross profit margin since Q1 of 2023 (20.5%). This comes as the Chinese market picks up and accelerates again, breaking a potential downtrend that had investors worried.Tesla automotive geographical revenueAnother positive note is that capacity utilization increased by 10% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ), breaking another negative downtrend while still delivering ~100% of production output. This means that every car being produced is also sold, not taking inventory into consideration. The reason we sometimes see periods with more than 100% deliveries as a percentage of production is when inventory is clearing out in addition to new production.Tesla deliveries and productionEnergyCompared to my first article, the energy segment has been cut down to only account for the energy generation and storage part of Tesla since we no longer get information regarding the solar business since Q4 of 2023. We are currently witnessing a massive expansion of this segment by Tesla, both in storage deployment and recorded sales. Q3 of 2024 proves that the prior quarter of 157% YoY growth in deployment was not a mere anomaly but a new exponential growth curve forming. While Q3 was not quite as impressive, Tesla still grew the quarter 73% YoY against a much more difficult comparison period compared to Q2.Tesla Energy generation and storageWhile Q3 recorded ~$600 million less revenue compared to Q2, the difference in gross profit was only $15 million. Tesla is becoming increasingly profitable in this segment, which has led me to increase my profitability projections for the segment as well as drive slightly stronger revenues into the future as it is proving to be a core segment.Tesla energy gross profit and marginsI have left the ending period's operating margin the same and only ramped up how quickly they get there, as I still can't tell a story in my valuation where Tesla exceeds 23% operating margins for the segment. As for an increase in revenues, I only adjusted 2024 and 2025 to reflect the accelerated pace, but ultimately, the periods onwards are left in accordance with my previous projections. I already accounted for energy being a large driver, and I only really got hints of an accelerated route to reach the end goal, but not enough to change the goalpost. Elon notes the following during the earnings call, supporting the current outlook:So, let's see. And we also have the energy storage business is growing like wildfire, with strong demand for both Megapack and Powerwall.Tesla energy projectionsServices excluding Robotaxi and RoboticsI have divided the services segment into multiple parts, historically excluding robotaxi and robotics as these are separate segments in my valuation sum-of-the-parts model. Instead, services mainly consist of automotive servicing as well as full self-driving (FSD). Tesla gives us very little information to work with for this segment; therefore, I have to make many assumptions. For the automotive servicing segment, I have based the margin profile to be in line with industry standards more or less. There is an increase towards the latter periods to account for Tesla's efficiency and growth in miscellaneous line items attributed to servicing, such as spare parts manufacturing. The revenue reflects a percentage of automotive sales, partly in line with historical averages, but also accounting for an increase in efficiencies. There are no changes to this segment compared to previous articles.However, the FSD segment has received some assumption changes to reflect the recent Robotaxi event. This is mainly represented in an increase in the adoption rate, ramping up a bit faster after the launch of the Cybercab in 2026. Unfortunately, Tesla does not disclose adoption rates for FSD, and there are various reports citing anything from a 5% adoption rate to something like 20% at the time of writing. I have a more modest approach, believing the FSD adoption rate is in the single digits right now, and after more widespread regulatory approval of the technology, I believe it will reach up to ~40% by 2033. If we are to believe CEO Elon Musk, it should be significantly higher, as the future is said to be fully autonomous by the CEO. However, I believe my current projections reflect the reality provided by the information we have available today.The way I calculate FSD revenue is to assume a 5-year life length per vehicle. I then get an estimated vehicle sales figure by dividing the current average sales price by the projected future revenue. The reason I don't try to adjust the median cost per vehicle in my model is because there are too many variables affecting future median sales prices for the Tesla fleet. For one, we have no idea what the fleet is composed of 10 years out, what they'll be selling for, what the inflation rates will look like, and so forth. I take the simple approach of adjusting the model to use the latest available median cost per vehicle, which is calculated by dividing automotive revenues by automotive deliveries not subject to operating leases.Tesla vehicle deliveries and average sales priceThe reason this calculation is important is that it impacts the FSD revenue because I calculate FSD revenue by multiplying the assumed FSD annual cost (subscription) by the trailing twelve months of vehicles on FSD, calculated by using the adoption rate. This method may inflate the vehicles sold per period, but by having a conservative approach to the adoption rate, it normalizes the figure.Tesla FSD salesRobotaxiIn my two previous articles, I excluded the Robotaxi segment from the base model because it was not much more than speculation as a result of a few hints by Tesla. Now the segment is a lot more tangible, with specific timelines and figures given to support it. As such, I have decided not to include it as part of optionality any longer, but instead incorporate it into my main model. However, it is still modeled to leave a lot of margin of safety. This means that I am actively valuing the segment, and I am paying for it. Before, whatever Robotaxi results would have been, they would have been given to me \"for free\" as long as I purchased shares below intrinsic value.This segment does not include actual sales of Cybercabs; instead, it focuses on the service, meaning the software and application. The way I approach Robotaxi revenue is to look at the ride-hailing market projections and assume a market share of this. Operating margins are significantly higher than companies like Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER) since the operations will exclude plenty of expenses that UBER has to incur. For one, the main expense associated with Robotaxis will be FSD as well as the actual vehicle production costs, none of which are included in this segment.Robotaxi projectionsI don't think the solution will have wide regulatory approval any time in this decade, and as such, the market share I assign Tesla is relatively low. The ride-hailing market is not particularly crowded; there are only a few main businesses operating within it. However, once regulatory approval is more widely spread, Tesla will have a quick scaling mechanism, as not only Cybercabs will be eligible for the service but also all Teslas. Elon Musk mentions that there won't really be a need for parking spaces anymore, as a Robotaxi fleet can operate around the clock.Tesla owners can connect their vehicles to the network and make money whenever they don't make use of their vehicles themselves. It's an interesting concept and one that may be a highly lucrative business in and of itself, but it is still too early to put too much faith into overly bullish projections for the segment. It starts off in 2026 with a ~0.21% market share and tops off at ~14% in 2033. These figures will likely have to be constantly monitored and updated as we grow closer to the launch of the Cybercab.ValuationNow that we have our projections, we can incorporate all the segments in our sum-of-the-parts valuation model and create our intrinsic valuation. There are a few key assumptions made:The discount rate is composed of the implied equity risk premium for the month of October (as calculated by Professor Aswath Damodaran), the risk-free rate, and a rather hefty execution risk of 2% assigned by me for Tesla. The execution risk reflects high uncertainty in future performance relative to more predictable businesses.The terminal growth rate is anchored to the risk-free rate. Some like to set a static figure here like 2 or 3%, but economists can't forecast the next quarter's economic growth, let alone more than 10 periods out. Instead of using a historical average, I use a rate that reflects the implied economic growth set by the market at the time of the valuation, with the risk-free rate as a proxy for that.Stock-based compensation, or SBC, is accounted for by diluting the outstanding share per period and calculating free cash flow to the firm on a per-share basis. As stock-based compensation is not a cash expense, it should not affect free cash flow. However, it is important to capture the dilutive effect of this type of compensation, and the best approach, in my opinion, is to dilute the outstanding shares per period.Tesla DCF modelThese inputs give me a fair intrinsic value per share of ~$273, roughly in line with the closing price as of Friday, the 25th of October. This is after Tesla's massive increase in share price after the Q3 earnings report. Tesla at around fair intrinsic value is a buy for me, especially considering that we have the optionality of not paying for the robotics or supercharger network segment. Whatever these two segments may contribute to the future, we receive it for free by not valuing them in our sum-of-the-parts model.RisksWhenever you value a business where most of the value is terminal, meaning outside the projection periods, you really have to be cautious in your projections. It is easy to get swept up in the hype from the CEO, claiming there is merit to the ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) projections of reaching $20-30 trillion of market cap in the years to come. Here is a quote from the Q2 earnings call:That's why my rough estimate long-term is in accordance with the ARK [ph] Invest analysis of market cap on the order of $5 trillion for -- maybe more for autonomous transport, and it's several times that number for general purpose humanoid robots.I try to be sensible in my approach and root the assumptions in a more cautious approach backed by what is tangible. It is important to have an understanding of the future outlook of the business and track it closely. Some I choose to be careful regarding Tesla, as investors can really be swept away in the tides of excitement. Tesla is an exciting company, but be careful what you pay for.SummaryThe period between Q2 and Q3 earnings in 2024 provided investors with a lot of new insight and input into the business. Tesla has given comments for each business driver, which can be extrapolated into future periods, even though a cautious approach is advisable. Most segments in my sum-of-the-parts have seen revisions to the upside in terms of growth and profitability, and with the addition of Robotaxi as a segment, it is now fairly valued.Any time I can get a wonderful business like Tesla at fair value that usually trades overvalued, it's an opportunity. Most of the value is terminal, and as such, I tend to be cautious with my projections. With a proper margin of safety and plenty of optionality in terms of the robotics segment, I have upgraded Tesla to a buy from a hold.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":22,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":364766764265472,"gmtCreate":1730064625070,"gmtModify":1730078773009,"author":{"id":"4105081372269870","authorId":"4105081372269870","name":"Imthiyas","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/713b089fffd0a4f627af530e8f4039ee","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4105081372269870","authorIdStr":"4105081372269870"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"This writer is negative on Tesla, readers just scroll down the rubbish , and load up on Tesla.","listText":"This writer is negative on Tesla, readers just scroll down the rubbish , and load up on Tesla.","text":"This writer is negative on Tesla, readers just scroll down the rubbish , and load up on Tesla.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/364766764265472","repostId":"2478918073","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2478918073","pubTimestamp":1729923068,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2478918073?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-10-26 14:11","market":"nz","language":"en","title":"Tesla: Don't Be Fooled By The Market","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2478918073","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Tesla, Inc.'s 20% post-earnings surge has recovered most losses incurred after its underwhelming Robotaxi event.Tesla's solid Q3 earnings release supports the thesis that the worst is likely behind th","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul><li><p>Tesla, Inc.&#39;s 20% post-earnings surge has recovered most losses incurred after its underwhelming Robotaxi event.</p></li><li><p>Tesla&#39;s solid Q3 earnings release supports the thesis that the worst is likely behind the EV leader.</p></li><li><p>However, the market isn&#39;t dumb, given Tesla&#39;s sky-high valuation amid EV growth challenges.</p></li><li><p>Tesla&#39;s fast-growing energy storage business might not be sufficient to justify the optimism baked into its autonomous driving ambitions.</p></li><li><p>I argue why betting against TSLA isn&#39;t wise. However, going long on the stock seems too aggressive at the current levels.</p></li></ul><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9fb069981b6649ef9bb9d10bf4d75d46\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\"/><span></span></p><p></p><h2>Tesla: 20% Post-Earnings Surge Recovered Most Of Recent Losses</h2><p><strong>Tesla, Inc.</strong> (NASDAQ:TSLA) investors cheered the EV leader&#39;s Q3 earnings release as TSLA surged more than 20% on October 24. As a result, it has recovered most of the losses since its relatively underwhelming Robotaxi Day in early October. The significant volatility in the stock has likely stunned inexperienced TSLA holders as the market reassesses the Elon Musk-led company&#39;s EV growth profile.</p><p>Doubts about Tesla&#39;s launch of “more affordable” vehicles dominated the narrative at its Robotaxi event. Reports about human-controlled Optimus robots made the news in the financial media, as investors were concerned about the company&#39;s autonomous ambitions. Hence, questions from bearish investors about what has changed over the past two weeks that led to yesterday&#39;s surge are justified.</p><p>Management remains optimistic about scaling Tesla&#39;s autonomous aspirations over the next two years. However, I assess that the de-rating that followed its Robotaxi event in early October suggests the market is increasingly focused on the company&#39;s near-term growth prospects. Therefore, Tesla&#39;s ability to deliver a growth inflection in its financial performance could indicate the worst is likely over.</p><p>There were already green shoots of a recovery in early October when Tesla posted delivery growth in Q3, outperforming Wall Street&#39;s estimates. In my previous TSLA article, I urged investors to remain cautious, as Tesla could disappoint at its Robotaxi event. My thesis panned out as the market digested the overstated hype, although this week&#39;s spectacular post-earnings surge has reversed the initial decline.</p><h2>Tesla&#39;s Q3 Earnings Suggests The Worst Is Likely Behind Us</h2><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/15e0d0b30d4122dc26b561f82ba77f81\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\"/><span></span></p><p></p><p>Tesla&#39;s performance in Q3 underscores its pre-eminent position as the world&#39;s leading EV maker. As seen above, it recorded a 7.8% YoY increase in revenue in Q3, corroborating the recovery momentum it posted in Q2. Tesla has continued to manage its pricing levers to improve its competitiveness. The intense competition in the EV industry has hampered the company&#39;s ability to drive a more robust topline growth profile. The high-interest rate environment has continued to affect affordability, although the headwinds have likely peaked. Despite that, Tesla&#39;s ability to navigate these challenges and achieve a revenue growth inflection is a testament to its market leadership, scale, branding, and customer confidence.</p><p>Notably, Tesla notched solid results with its Cybertruck, becoming the “third best-selling EV in Q3 in the US.” Therefore, the market is likely increasingly confident in its growth prospects through 2025, corroborating the EV leader&#39;s market dominance.</p><h2>Tesla&#39;s Scale Could Lift Its Margins Further</h2><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f94bc2cda755ff8959ee09c686fdef06\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\"/><span></span></p><p></p><p>Management indicates macroeconomic challenges in Q4 could hamper its robust automotive gross margin recovery. However, its ability to post a solid corporate gross margin of almost 20% demonstrates the sustainability of Tesla&#39;s scale.</p><p>In addition, Elon Musk telegraphed his confidence in achieving 20% to 30% in vehicle growth rates next year, justifying the recent optimism. As a result, Tesla&#39;s increasing scale should position the EV leader well into potential delivery estimates of above 2M for 2025.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4c78be624408fa981e86dbd2847d08c6\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"454\"/><span></span></p><p></p><p>Coupled with the continued growth in its energy generation and storage business, I assess that the market has turned more constructive with the recent proof points. As seen above, Tesla&#39;s energy business has continued to do well, posting a topline growth of more than 40% on a trailing twelve-month basis. Given its improved scale, its gross profitability has also been lifted markedly, reaching nearly 26% in Q3 (trailing twelve months basis).</p><p>As a result, Tesla has demonstrated its ability to chart a significant growth vector through its energy business, even as its EV growth has decelerated. Although its energy business remains nascent (relative to its automotive business), it&#39;s expected to play an increasingly critical role moving ahead.</p><p>Solar energy capacity has surged to new highs, gaining significant influence in the renewable energy industry. Hence, I assess that cautious or bearish investors (including myself) have likely understated Tesla&#39;s capabilities to expand its growth drivers, notwithstanding the slowdown in its core EV business.</p><h2>TSLA Stock: But, Hasn&#39;t The Market Priced Them In?</h2><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/119454cad8eb328c901c728cd7c0ff71\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"615\" tg-height=\"318\"/><span></span></p><p></p><p>Despite that, TSLA&#39;s “F” valuation grade corroborates my cautious thesis that the market has likely overstated its relatively tepid “C-” growth grade. In other words, it&#39;s increasingly challenging for TSLA investors to justify its growth premium based on its fast-growing energy storage business. Accordingly, it hasn&#39;t been able to mitigate the slowdown in its main EV business.</p><p>Tesla has committed to driving near- and medium-term growth through its Robotaxi business and autonomous driving software. However, these optionalities are still mired in significant uncertainties. Although management telegraphed its confidence in the volume production for Cybercab in 2026, investors must be cautious in potentially overstating them.</p><p>Regulatory hurdles, deployment challenges, and capacity constraints could hamper management&#39;s optimism. In addition, the actualization of Tesla&#39;s autonomous driving ambitions isn&#39;t expected to be close to fruition yet. Hence, there seems to be too much hype baked into TSLA&#39;s arguably unjustified valuation metrics at the current levels.</p><h2>Is TSLA Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold?</h2><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/521b6c84d7a5a04ecba3f472fc901cd5\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"394\"/><span></span></p><p></p><p>TSLA&#39;s forward adjusted EPS multiple of 105x is substantially above its consumer discretionary (XLY) sector median of 17x. It&#39;s also markedly above its automotive peers&#39; median of 3.6x (according to S&amp;P Cap IQ data). Furthermore, investors should consider the relative underperformance of its solar energy peers listed in the Invesco Solar ETF (TAN), as it fell to new recent lows in October 2024. Therefore, anticipating a significant valuation re-rating based on its core EV or solar energy business could be increasingly challenging unless Tesla makes a substantial breakthrough in actualizing its autonomous ambitions.</p><p>Despite that, its price action highlights the robustness of its dip-buying sentiments. TSLA&#39;s “A” momentum grade has been upgraded from “D” over the past six months, corroborating the stock&#39;s markedly improved buying momentum. Therefore, bearish investors must be cautious about trying to bet against the market, as these bets could be eviscerated, given the potentially high volatility and robustness in TSLA&#39;s underlying momentum.</p><p>TSLA&#39;s price action has inched closer to a critical resistance zone under the $270 level. That level has resisted buying advances since December 2023, which justifies increased caution. Therefore, I assess that the market seems to have baked in steep optimism on Tesla, Inc.&#39;s ability to actualize and monetize its autonomous driving and Robotaxi ambitions over the coming years.</p><p>Hence, I urge investors to remain cautious about the stock, as profit-taking could also set in as it inches closer to the $270 zone.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla: Don't Be Fooled By The Market</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla: Don't Be Fooled By The Market\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-10-26 14:11 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4729587-tesla-dont-be-fooled-by-the-market><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Tesla, Inc.'s 20% post-earnings surge has recovered most losses incurred after its underwhelming Robotaxi event.Tesla's solid Q3 earnings release supports the thesis that the worst is likely behind ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4729587-tesla-dont-be-fooled-by-the-market\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SG9999015952.SGD":"LIONGLOBAL DISRUPTIVE INNOVATION \"I\" (SGD) ACC","LU1429558221.USD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity RA USD","LU2357305700.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence ET H2-SGD","LU1861559042.SGD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B SGD","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元","LU1435385759.SGD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity RA SGD-H","LU2213496289.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","LU1551013342.USD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS USD","LU0082616367.USD":"摩根大通美国科技A（dist）","BK4527":"明星科技股","LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","LU0719512351.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Technology A (acc) SGD","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","LU0964807845.USD":"ALLIANZ INCOME & GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","BK4588":"碎股","LU2249611893.SGD":"BNP PARIBAS ENERGY TRANSITION \"CRH\" (SGD) ACC","LU1914381329.SGD":"Allianz Best Styles Global Equity Cl ET Acc H2-SGD","LU0234572021.USD":"高盛美国核心股票组合Acc","TSLA":"特斯拉","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","LU2063271972.USD":"富兰克林创新领域基金","LU2756315664.SGD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMI\" (SGDHDG) INC","SG9999015945.SGD":"LionGlobal Disruptive Innovation Fund A SGD","BK4581":"高盛持仓","LU0823414478.USD":"法巴经典能源转换基金","SG9999015986.USD":"LIONGLOBAL DISRUPTIVE INNOVATION \"I\" (USD) ACC","BK4099":"汽车制造商","LU1145028129.USD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AQ\" (USD) INC","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","BK4511":"特斯拉概念","LU2023250330.USD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMG\" (USD) INC","LU0689472784.USD":"安联收益及增长基金Cl AM AT Acc","LU2326559502.SGD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity P/A SGD-H","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","LU1720051017.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence AT Acc H2-SGD","LU1852331112.SGD":"Blackrock World Technology Fund A2 SGD-H","LU0198837287.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - USA GROWTH \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU0316494557.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL FUNDAMENTAL STRATEGIES \"A\" ACC","LU1861215975.USD":"贝莱德新一代科技基金 A2","LU0820561818.USD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金Cl AM DIS","LU1861220033.SGD":"Blackrock Next Generation Technology A2 SGD-H","LU2602419157.SGD":"HSBC ISLAMIC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"AC\" (SGD) ACC","BK4592":"伊斯兰概念","LU1551013425.SGD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS H2-SGD","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","LU0348723411.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL HI-TECH GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","LU1720051108.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4729587-tesla-dont-be-fooled-by-the-market","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2478918073","content_text":"Tesla, Inc.'s 20% post-earnings surge has recovered most losses incurred after its underwhelming Robotaxi event.Tesla's solid Q3 earnings release supports the thesis that the worst is likely behind the EV leader.However, the market isn't dumb, given Tesla's sky-high valuation amid EV growth challenges.Tesla's fast-growing energy storage business might not be sufficient to justify the optimism baked into its autonomous driving ambitions.I argue why betting against TSLA isn't wise. However, going long on the stock seems too aggressive at the current levels.Tesla: 20% Post-Earnings Surge Recovered Most Of Recent LossesTesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) investors cheered the EV leader's Q3 earnings release as TSLA surged more than 20% on October 24. As a result, it has recovered most of the losses since its relatively underwhelming Robotaxi Day in early October. The significant volatility in the stock has likely stunned inexperienced TSLA holders as the market reassesses the Elon Musk-led company's EV growth profile.Doubts about Tesla's launch of “more affordable” vehicles dominated the narrative at its Robotaxi event. Reports about human-controlled Optimus robots made the news in the financial media, as investors were concerned about the company's autonomous ambitions. Hence, questions from bearish investors about what has changed over the past two weeks that led to yesterday's surge are justified.Management remains optimistic about scaling Tesla's autonomous aspirations over the next two years. However, I assess that the de-rating that followed its Robotaxi event in early October suggests the market is increasingly focused on the company's near-term growth prospects. Therefore, Tesla's ability to deliver a growth inflection in its financial performance could indicate the worst is likely over.There were already green shoots of a recovery in early October when Tesla posted delivery growth in Q3, outperforming Wall Street's estimates. In my previous TSLA article, I urged investors to remain cautious, as Tesla could disappoint at its Robotaxi event. My thesis panned out as the market digested the overstated hype, although this week's spectacular post-earnings surge has reversed the initial decline.Tesla's Q3 Earnings Suggests The Worst Is Likely Behind UsTesla's performance in Q3 underscores its pre-eminent position as the world's leading EV maker. As seen above, it recorded a 7.8% YoY increase in revenue in Q3, corroborating the recovery momentum it posted in Q2. Tesla has continued to manage its pricing levers to improve its competitiveness. The intense competition in the EV industry has hampered the company's ability to drive a more robust topline growth profile. The high-interest rate environment has continued to affect affordability, although the headwinds have likely peaked. Despite that, Tesla's ability to navigate these challenges and achieve a revenue growth inflection is a testament to its market leadership, scale, branding, and customer confidence.Notably, Tesla notched solid results with its Cybertruck, becoming the “third best-selling EV in Q3 in the US.” Therefore, the market is likely increasingly confident in its growth prospects through 2025, corroborating the EV leader's market dominance.Tesla's Scale Could Lift Its Margins FurtherManagement indicates macroeconomic challenges in Q4 could hamper its robust automotive gross margin recovery. However, its ability to post a solid corporate gross margin of almost 20% demonstrates the sustainability of Tesla's scale.In addition, Elon Musk telegraphed his confidence in achieving 20% to 30% in vehicle growth rates next year, justifying the recent optimism. As a result, Tesla's increasing scale should position the EV leader well into potential delivery estimates of above 2M for 2025.Coupled with the continued growth in its energy generation and storage business, I assess that the market has turned more constructive with the recent proof points. As seen above, Tesla's energy business has continued to do well, posting a topline growth of more than 40% on a trailing twelve-month basis. Given its improved scale, its gross profitability has also been lifted markedly, reaching nearly 26% in Q3 (trailing twelve months basis).As a result, Tesla has demonstrated its ability to chart a significant growth vector through its energy business, even as its EV growth has decelerated. Although its energy business remains nascent (relative to its automotive business), it's expected to play an increasingly critical role moving ahead.Solar energy capacity has surged to new highs, gaining significant influence in the renewable energy industry. Hence, I assess that cautious or bearish investors (including myself) have likely understated Tesla's capabilities to expand its growth drivers, notwithstanding the slowdown in its core EV business.TSLA Stock: But, Hasn't The Market Priced Them In?Despite that, TSLA's “F” valuation grade corroborates my cautious thesis that the market has likely overstated its relatively tepid “C-” growth grade. In other words, it's increasingly challenging for TSLA investors to justify its growth premium based on its fast-growing energy storage business. Accordingly, it hasn't been able to mitigate the slowdown in its main EV business.Tesla has committed to driving near- and medium-term growth through its Robotaxi business and autonomous driving software. However, these optionalities are still mired in significant uncertainties. Although management telegraphed its confidence in the volume production for Cybercab in 2026, investors must be cautious in potentially overstating them.Regulatory hurdles, deployment challenges, and capacity constraints could hamper management's optimism. In addition, the actualization of Tesla's autonomous driving ambitions isn't expected to be close to fruition yet. Hence, there seems to be too much hype baked into TSLA's arguably unjustified valuation metrics at the current levels.Is TSLA Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold?TSLA's forward adjusted EPS multiple of 105x is substantially above its consumer discretionary (XLY) sector median of 17x. It's also markedly above its automotive peers' median of 3.6x (according to S&P Cap IQ data). Furthermore, investors should consider the relative underperformance of its solar energy peers listed in the Invesco Solar ETF (TAN), as it fell to new recent lows in October 2024. Therefore, anticipating a significant valuation re-rating based on its core EV or solar energy business could be increasingly challenging unless Tesla makes a substantial breakthrough in actualizing its autonomous ambitions.Despite that, its price action highlights the robustness of its dip-buying sentiments. TSLA's “A” momentum grade has been upgraded from “D” over the past six months, corroborating the stock's markedly improved buying momentum. Therefore, bearish investors must be cautious about trying to bet against the market, as these bets could be eviscerated, given the potentially high volatility and robustness in TSLA's underlying momentum.TSLA's price action has inched closer to a critical resistance zone under the $270 level. That level has resisted buying advances since December 2023, which justifies increased caution. Therefore, I assess that the market seems to have baked in steep optimism on Tesla, Inc.'s ability to actualize and monetize its autonomous driving and Robotaxi ambitions over the coming years.Hence, I urge investors to remain cautious about the stock, as profit-taking could also set in as it inches closer to the $270 zone.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":14,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":363856259665984,"gmtCreate":1729842334055,"gmtModify":1729843614979,"author":{"id":"4105081372269870","authorId":"4105081372269870","name":"Imthiyas","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/713b089fffd0a4f627af530e8f4039ee","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4105081372269870","authorIdStr":"4105081372269870"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"You are misguiding the buisness and Elon musk hate the short sellers he will wipe out all short sellers.","listText":"You are misguiding the buisness and Elon musk hate the short sellers he will wipe out all short sellers.","text":"You are misguiding the buisness and Elon musk hate the short sellers he will wipe out all short sellers.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/363856259665984","repostId":"2478675257","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2478675257","pubTimestamp":1729840530,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2478675257?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-10-25 15:15","market":"nz","language":"en","title":"Tesla Faces Major Risks In The Future","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2478675257","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Tesla faces growing risks due to Elon Musk's political alignment, impacting its primary markets and consumer perception negatively.Political associations influence EV ownership, with Democrats favorin","content":"<html><body><ul><li>Tesla faces growing risks due to Elon Musk's political alignment, impacting its primary markets and consumer perception negatively.</li><li>Political associations influence EV ownership, with Democrats favoring EVs more than Republicans, potentially affecting the Company's market.</li><li>Increased competition and declining consumer interest have reduced TSLA's market share and consideration score, threatening revenue.</li><li>Class action lawsuits over Tesla's FSD promises add financial risks, highlighting the company's overvaluation and potential revenue losses.</li></ul><p><figure><picture><img fetchpriority=\"high\" height=\"1002px\" sizes=\"(max-width: 768px) calc(100vw - 36px), (max-width: 1024px) calc(100vw - 132px), (max-width: 1200px) calc(66.6vw - 72px), 600px\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/497215523/image_497215523.jpg?io=getty-c-w750\" srcset=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/497215523/image_497215523.jpg?io=getty-c-w1536 1536w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/497215523/image_497215523.jpg?io=getty-c-w1280 1280w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/497215523/image_497215523.jpg?io=getty-c-w1080 1080w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/497215523/image_497215523.jpg?io=getty-c-w750 750w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/497215523/image_497215523.jpg?io=getty-c-w640 640w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/497215523/image_497215523.jpg?io=getty-c-w480 480w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/497215523/image_497215523.jpg?io=getty-c-w320 320w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/497215523/image_497215523.jpg?io=getty-c-w240 240w\" width=\"1536px\"/></picture><figcaption><p>wellesenterprises</p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>Tesla (<span>NASDAQ:TSLA</span>) is one of the largest EV companies in the world, with a market capitalization of more than $700 billion. We recently discussed how the company's fair value is less than a third of its market<span> capitalization</span><span>. However, as we'll see throughout this article, the company faces risks from a number of avenues including slowing growth, weak FSD, and the association with its founder, Elon Musk, who's vocally aligned himself with the Republican Party.</span></p> <p>That could have a substantial impact on the company's future growth.</p> <h2>Tesla Earnings</h2> <p>Tesla saw its share price go up after hours, by double-digits, after announcing respectably strong earnings in a market expecting doom.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/10/23/34591885-17297379300300016.png\"/></span><figcaption><p>Tesla Investor Presentation</p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>The company also predicted 20% vehicle growth next year; however, we'd like to highlight that this is from the company seeing ~6% YoY growth, and predicted 50% annualized growth last year. We'll believe it when we see it, but we're not optimistic. The company's total revenues increased only 8% YoY supported by services and energy generation and storage.</p> <p>Tesla has continued to hype up autonomy, but as we discussed here, the company is well behind. The company's profit went up, and we will concede that FCF for the company was strong, not surprising given margins in energy generation and storage. However YoY the company's growth in cash and cash equivalents was ~$7.5 billion, not enough to justify its valuation.</p> <p>Given the slowdown in automotive revenues which indicates a shift towards lower margin vehicles, the company's after-hours strength represents a better selling opportunity to us.</p> <h2>EVs versus Political Association</h2> <p>Given the different stances the parties have taken on climate change, there's a strong political association to EV ownership.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/10/20/saupload_ev-politics-slide-deck.webp\"/></picture><figcaption><p>EV Politics</p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>Tesla itself is known for its largest market being California, where it was founded, the quintessential \"blue\" state. The above chart highlights how by major political party views on EVs vary dramatically. Among Republicans, almost 50% have a mostly unfavorable view on electric-only car brands while only 10% have a mostly favorable view.</p> <p>Among Democrats, the mostly favorable percentage is almost 40% while the mostly unfavorable is only 20%.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/10/20/saupload_Visualizing-Electric-Vehicle-Adoption-Across-U.S.-States_Website_07232024.jpg\"/></picture><figcaption><p>EV Adoption</p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>This is also partially visible in EV ownership registrations per 100K by state. While there are some associations (i.e. blue states tend to have more concentrated / higher populations that could lend themselves well to EV ownership) it's visible that EV ownership varies partially by party association of the step.</p> <p>For example, Colorado has 1.4% EV adoption, while Wyoming next door has &lt;0.2%. Wisconsin has 0.4% while Iowa has 0.25%. This variance helps reaffirm what we stated above, through polls, which is that Democrats are dramatically more likely to own an electric vehicle than Republicans.</p> <h2>Elon Musk versus Target Buyers</h2> <p>In our view, that association presents a substantial risk given that Elon Musk has aligned himself with the Republican Party's candidate, Donald Trump.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/10/20/34591885-17294019703896348.png\"/></span><figcaption><p>Political Alignment</p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>The impact of this alignment can be clearly seen in polls asking people of their opinion on Elon Musk. Democrats have an approval rating of 6% which has plummeted from more than 20% while at the same time approval about Republicans has more than doubled from 30% a few years ago to more than 60%.</p> <p>Now you might say you don't care about political opinions on the CEOs of the companies you shop at. That's valid. However, we'd argue that Elon Musk as a persona is much more associated with Tesla, with 83% of Americans doing so. That means that a negative view of Elon Musk could have an impact on Tesla's primary markets.</p> <p>The net result of this all, regardless of how reasonable anyone thinks it is, is that there's a substantial risk to Tesla.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/10/20/saupload_9776219d09442eb3c98a8fd34966d11e.jpg\"/></picture><figcaption><p>Bloomberg Tesla Owners</p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>According to Bloomberg's 2023 Tesla Owners survey disapproval is a top reason why Tesla owners are walking away, with more than 20% saying yes. Now it's tough to quantify exact risks. However, in the same survey above, 13% of Model 3 owners were planning to leave at all, which means that ~3% of Tesla owners today are considering walking away.</p> <p>However, in Tesla's world, at 2 million vehicles per year, that's 60K vehicles less of Model 3 demand, which is billions of dollars of lost revenue. More importantly, this is coming at the same time as competition is increasing, and EV sales are slowing.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/10/20/saupload_image-placeholder-title.jpg\"/></picture><figcaption><p>Cox Automotive</p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>Tesla has continued to face additional competition which has pushed down its market share to below 50%. From a global market share perspective, the company is still struggling to compete for its crown, with cheap EVs in China and Europe putting substantial pressure on the company. The company competes with BYD for the crown of the top global EV maker.</p> <p>Overall new competition has pushed down Tesla's consideration score:</p> <blockquote><p>Survey data reported by <em>Reuters</em> found that Tesla's \"consideration score\" - a metric used by Caliber to track consumer interest in brands, based on how they respond to the prompt \"I would buy, or continue buying, products and services from Tesla, if given the chance\" - has fallen to 31 percent from its 70 percent high in November 2021, tumbling by 8 percent alone this January. Caliber's consideration scores for rival EV-producing manufacturers Audi, BMW, and Mercedes, meanwhile, increased slightly during the same period, reaching between 44-47 percent.</p></blockquote> <p>In Europe, one of the largest retail chains, Rossmann, has halted plans to purchase EVs as a result of Donald Trump directly. This is a quantifiable risk that could cost the company billions at a time when sales are already flat lining.</p> <h2>Tesla FSD Hardware Class Action</h2> <p>At the same time, after Tesla's lackluster self-driving event, we expect class actions over the company's FSD to ramp up. That's been a major source of the company's profits recently, and the company is already facing some class action lawsuits.</p> <p>It's well known that Tesla FSD has been promised as being around the corner for almost a decade now. Tesla owners with the \"HW3\" package spent more than $10K on this package with the promise of full-self driving. Tesla has continued to make this promise despite releasing \"HW4\" and not offering an upgrade to \"HW3\" owners, saying it would be too expensive.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/10/20/saupload_Screenshot-2024-10-14-at-4.12.48_E2_80_AFPM.jpg\"/></picture><figcaption><p>Bloomberg Disengagement</p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>Tesla's miles to disengagement has barely doubled over the last several years. For perspective, Waymo is at roughly 100x that, and conventional wisdom is that there's much further to go. Think about how often your car would need to go before \"failure\" for you to buy a FSD car with no steering wheel or controls. Tesla is far, far away.</p> <p>Tesla appears to understand the risk with HW3, saying \"let's not get nuanced\" at the event asking the company to confirm, while updating the language on its website. Recent FSD releases indicate that Tesla is hitting the limits of what's possible with HW3, with recent releases coming out on HW4 first instead of HW3.</p> <p>More importantly, HW3 releases now use both computers, which makes it impossible to achieve Level 5 FSD given a requirement for redundant computers.</p> <h2>Thesis Risk</h2> <p>The largest risk to our thesis is that the company's newfound allegiances might change some of the statistics above and make a new group of people more open to EVs. That could help replace lost customers and support Tesla's sales and returns.</p> <h2>Conclusion</h2> <p>Tesla, as we discussed in our prior article, is already trading well above fair value. Now, with recent developments around the election along with the company's FSD event, we see risks increasing. That could potentially cost the company billions in revenue as it's struggling.</p> <p>This adds on to the company's liability with FSD, as the company has made promises that it's now seeing class action lawsuits with. These sales were a massive source of profits for the company and margins, so having to refund them could be massively expensive.</p> <div></div> <p>As a result, this helps to highlight how overvalued Tesla is and why it's a poor investment at this time. Let us know your thoughts in the comments below.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Faces Major Risks In The Future</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ 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class=\"title\">\nTesla Faces Major Risks In The Future\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-10-25 15:15 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4729442-tesla-stock-faces-major-risks-in-future-reiterate-sell><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Tesla faces growing risks due to Elon Musk's political alignment, impacting its primary markets and consumer perception negatively.Political associations influence EV ownership, with Democrats ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4729442-tesla-stock-faces-major-risks-in-future-reiterate-sell\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/497215523/image_497215523.jpg","relate_stocks":{"BK4555":"新能源车","LU2756315318.SGD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMG\" (SGDHDG) INC A","LU1720051108.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE \"AT\" (HKD) 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SGD-H","LU1861215975.USD":"贝莱德新一代科技基金 A2","BK4592":"伊斯兰概念","LU1861558580.USD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B","LU0820561818.USD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金Cl AM DIS","LU1861220033.SGD":"Blackrock Next Generation Technology A2 SGD-H","LU2602419157.SGD":"HSBC ISLAMIC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"AC\" (SGD) ACC","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4729442-tesla-stock-faces-major-risks-in-future-reiterate-sell","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2478675257","content_text":"Tesla faces growing risks due to Elon Musk's political alignment, impacting its primary markets and consumer perception negatively.Political associations influence EV ownership, with Democrats favoring EVs more than Republicans, potentially affecting the Company's market.Increased competition and declining consumer interest have reduced TSLA's market share and consideration score, threatening revenue.Class action lawsuits over Tesla's FSD promises add financial risks, highlighting the company's overvaluation and potential revenue losses.wellesenterprises Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) is one of the largest EV companies in the world, with a market capitalization of more than $700 billion. We recently discussed how the company's fair value is less than a third of its market capitalization. However, as we'll see throughout this article, the company faces risks from a number of avenues including slowing growth, weak FSD, and the association with its founder, Elon Musk, who's vocally aligned himself with the Republican Party. That could have a substantial impact on the company's future growth. Tesla Earnings Tesla saw its share price go up after hours, by double-digits, after announcing respectably strong earnings in a market expecting doom. Tesla Investor Presentation The company also predicted 20% vehicle growth next year; however, we'd like to highlight that this is from the company seeing ~6% YoY growth, and predicted 50% annualized growth last year. We'll believe it when we see it, but we're not optimistic. The company's total revenues increased only 8% YoY supported by services and energy generation and storage. Tesla has continued to hype up autonomy, but as we discussed here, the company is well behind. The company's profit went up, and we will concede that FCF for the company was strong, not surprising given margins in energy generation and storage. However YoY the company's growth in cash and cash equivalents was ~$7.5 billion, not enough to justify its valuation. Given the slowdown in automotive revenues which indicates a shift towards lower margin vehicles, the company's after-hours strength represents a better selling opportunity to us. EVs versus Political Association Given the different stances the parties have taken on climate change, there's a strong political association to EV ownership. EV Politics Tesla itself is known for its largest market being California, where it was founded, the quintessential \"blue\" state. The above chart highlights how by major political party views on EVs vary dramatically. Among Republicans, almost 50% have a mostly unfavorable view on electric-only car brands while only 10% have a mostly favorable view. Among Democrats, the mostly favorable percentage is almost 40% while the mostly unfavorable is only 20%. EV Adoption This is also partially visible in EV ownership registrations per 100K by state. While there are some associations (i.e. blue states tend to have more concentrated / higher populations that could lend themselves well to EV ownership) it's visible that EV ownership varies partially by party association of the step. For example, Colorado has 1.4% EV adoption, while Wyoming next door has <0.2%. Wisconsin has 0.4% while Iowa has 0.25%. This variance helps reaffirm what we stated above, through polls, which is that Democrats are dramatically more likely to own an electric vehicle than Republicans. Elon Musk versus Target Buyers In our view, that association presents a substantial risk given that Elon Musk has aligned himself with the Republican Party's candidate, Donald Trump. Political Alignment The impact of this alignment can be clearly seen in polls asking people of their opinion on Elon Musk. Democrats have an approval rating of 6% which has plummeted from more than 20% while at the same time approval about Republicans has more than doubled from 30% a few years ago to more than 60%. Now you might say you don't care about political opinions on the CEOs of the companies you shop at. That's valid. However, we'd argue that Elon Musk as a persona is much more associated with Tesla, with 83% of Americans doing so. That means that a negative view of Elon Musk could have an impact on Tesla's primary markets. The net result of this all, regardless of how reasonable anyone thinks it is, is that there's a substantial risk to Tesla. Bloomberg Tesla Owners According to Bloomberg's 2023 Tesla Owners survey disapproval is a top reason why Tesla owners are walking away, with more than 20% saying yes. Now it's tough to quantify exact risks. However, in the same survey above, 13% of Model 3 owners were planning to leave at all, which means that ~3% of Tesla owners today are considering walking away. However, in Tesla's world, at 2 million vehicles per year, that's 60K vehicles less of Model 3 demand, which is billions of dollars of lost revenue. More importantly, this is coming at the same time as competition is increasing, and EV sales are slowing. Cox Automotive Tesla has continued to face additional competition which has pushed down its market share to below 50%. From a global market share perspective, the company is still struggling to compete for its crown, with cheap EVs in China and Europe putting substantial pressure on the company. The company competes with BYD for the crown of the top global EV maker. Overall new competition has pushed down Tesla's consideration score: Survey data reported by Reuters found that Tesla's \"consideration score\" - a metric used by Caliber to track consumer interest in brands, based on how they respond to the prompt \"I would buy, or continue buying, products and services from Tesla, if given the chance\" - has fallen to 31 percent from its 70 percent high in November 2021, tumbling by 8 percent alone this January. Caliber's consideration scores for rival EV-producing manufacturers Audi, BMW, and Mercedes, meanwhile, increased slightly during the same period, reaching between 44-47 percent. In Europe, one of the largest retail chains, Rossmann, has halted plans to purchase EVs as a result of Donald Trump directly. This is a quantifiable risk that could cost the company billions at a time when sales are already flat lining. Tesla FSD Hardware Class Action At the same time, after Tesla's lackluster self-driving event, we expect class actions over the company's FSD to ramp up. That's been a major source of the company's profits recently, and the company is already facing some class action lawsuits. It's well known that Tesla FSD has been promised as being around the corner for almost a decade now. Tesla owners with the \"HW3\" package spent more than $10K on this package with the promise of full-self driving. Tesla has continued to make this promise despite releasing \"HW4\" and not offering an upgrade to \"HW3\" owners, saying it would be too expensive. Bloomberg Disengagement Tesla's miles to disengagement has barely doubled over the last several years. For perspective, Waymo is at roughly 100x that, and conventional wisdom is that there's much further to go. Think about how often your car would need to go before \"failure\" for you to buy a FSD car with no steering wheel or controls. Tesla is far, far away. Tesla appears to understand the risk with HW3, saying \"let's not get nuanced\" at the event asking the company to confirm, while updating the language on its website. Recent FSD releases indicate that Tesla is hitting the limits of what's possible with HW3, with recent releases coming out on HW4 first instead of HW3. More importantly, HW3 releases now use both computers, which makes it impossible to achieve Level 5 FSD given a requirement for redundant computers. Thesis Risk The largest risk to our thesis is that the company's newfound allegiances might change some of the statistics above and make a new group of people more open to EVs. That could help replace lost customers and support Tesla's sales and returns. Conclusion Tesla, as we discussed in our prior article, is already trading well above fair value. Now, with recent developments around the election along with the company's FSD event, we see risks increasing. That could potentially cost the company billions in revenue as it's struggling. This adds on to the company's liability with FSD, as the company has made promises that it's now seeing class action lawsuits with. These sales were a massive source of profits for the company and margins, so having to refund them could be massively expensive.  As a result, this helps to highlight how overvalued Tesla is and why it's a poor investment at this time. Let us know your thoughts in the comments below.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":363855863721992,"gmtCreate":1729842240420,"gmtModify":1729843536299,"author":{"id":"4105081372269870","authorId":"4105081372269870","name":"Imthiyas","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/713b089fffd0a4f627af530e8f4039ee","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4105081372269870","authorIdStr":"4105081372269870"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Bull shit your analysis every time, stop posting your views.","listText":"Bull shit your analysis every time, stop posting your views.","text":"Bull shit your analysis every time, stop posting your views.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/363855863721992","repostId":"2478675257","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2478675257","pubTimestamp":1729840530,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2478675257?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-10-25 15:15","market":"nz","language":"en","title":"Tesla Faces Major Risks In The Future","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2478675257","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Tesla faces growing risks due to Elon Musk's political alignment, impacting its primary markets and consumer perception negatively.Political associations influence EV ownership, with Democrats favorin","content":"<html><body><ul><li>Tesla faces growing risks due to Elon Musk's political alignment, impacting its primary markets and consumer perception negatively.</li><li>Political associations influence EV ownership, with Democrats favoring EVs more than Republicans, potentially affecting the Company's market.</li><li>Increased competition and declining consumer interest have reduced TSLA's market share and consideration score, threatening revenue.</li><li>Class action lawsuits over Tesla's FSD promises add financial risks, highlighting the company's overvaluation and potential revenue losses.</li></ul><p><figure><picture><img fetchpriority=\"high\" height=\"1002px\" sizes=\"(max-width: 768px) calc(100vw - 36px), (max-width: 1024px) calc(100vw - 132px), (max-width: 1200px) calc(66.6vw - 72px), 600px\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/497215523/image_497215523.jpg?io=getty-c-w750\" srcset=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/497215523/image_497215523.jpg?io=getty-c-w1536 1536w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/497215523/image_497215523.jpg?io=getty-c-w1280 1280w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/497215523/image_497215523.jpg?io=getty-c-w1080 1080w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/497215523/image_497215523.jpg?io=getty-c-w750 750w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/497215523/image_497215523.jpg?io=getty-c-w640 640w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/497215523/image_497215523.jpg?io=getty-c-w480 480w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/497215523/image_497215523.jpg?io=getty-c-w320 320w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/497215523/image_497215523.jpg?io=getty-c-w240 240w\" width=\"1536px\"/></picture><figcaption><p>wellesenterprises</p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>Tesla (<span>NASDAQ:TSLA</span>) is one of the largest EV companies in the world, with a market capitalization of more than $700 billion. We recently discussed how the company's fair value is less than a third of its market<span> capitalization</span><span>. However, as we'll see throughout this article, the company faces risks from a number of avenues including slowing growth, weak FSD, and the association with its founder, Elon Musk, who's vocally aligned himself with the Republican Party.</span></p> <p>That could have a substantial impact on the company's future growth.</p> <h2>Tesla Earnings</h2> <p>Tesla saw its share price go up after hours, by double-digits, after announcing respectably strong earnings in a market expecting doom.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/10/23/34591885-17297379300300016.png\"/></span><figcaption><p>Tesla Investor Presentation</p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>The company also predicted 20% vehicle growth next year; however, we'd like to highlight that this is from the company seeing ~6% YoY growth, and predicted 50% annualized growth last year. We'll believe it when we see it, but we're not optimistic. The company's total revenues increased only 8% YoY supported by services and energy generation and storage.</p> <p>Tesla has continued to hype up autonomy, but as we discussed here, the company is well behind. The company's profit went up, and we will concede that FCF for the company was strong, not surprising given margins in energy generation and storage. However YoY the company's growth in cash and cash equivalents was ~$7.5 billion, not enough to justify its valuation.</p> <p>Given the slowdown in automotive revenues which indicates a shift towards lower margin vehicles, the company's after-hours strength represents a better selling opportunity to us.</p> <h2>EVs versus Political Association</h2> <p>Given the different stances the parties have taken on climate change, there's a strong political association to EV ownership.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/10/20/saupload_ev-politics-slide-deck.webp\"/></picture><figcaption><p>EV Politics</p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>Tesla itself is known for its largest market being California, where it was founded, the quintessential \"blue\" state. The above chart highlights how by major political party views on EVs vary dramatically. Among Republicans, almost 50% have a mostly unfavorable view on electric-only car brands while only 10% have a mostly favorable view.</p> <p>Among Democrats, the mostly favorable percentage is almost 40% while the mostly unfavorable is only 20%.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/10/20/saupload_Visualizing-Electric-Vehicle-Adoption-Across-U.S.-States_Website_07232024.jpg\"/></picture><figcaption><p>EV Adoption</p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>This is also partially visible in EV ownership registrations per 100K by state. While there are some associations (i.e. blue states tend to have more concentrated / higher populations that could lend themselves well to EV ownership) it's visible that EV ownership varies partially by party association of the step.</p> <p>For example, Colorado has 1.4% EV adoption, while Wyoming next door has &lt;0.2%. Wisconsin has 0.4% while Iowa has 0.25%. This variance helps reaffirm what we stated above, through polls, which is that Democrats are dramatically more likely to own an electric vehicle than Republicans.</p> <h2>Elon Musk versus Target Buyers</h2> <p>In our view, that association presents a substantial risk given that Elon Musk has aligned himself with the Republican Party's candidate, Donald Trump.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/10/20/34591885-17294019703896348.png\"/></span><figcaption><p>Political Alignment</p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>The impact of this alignment can be clearly seen in polls asking people of their opinion on Elon Musk. Democrats have an approval rating of 6% which has plummeted from more than 20% while at the same time approval about Republicans has more than doubled from 30% a few years ago to more than 60%.</p> <p>Now you might say you don't care about political opinions on the CEOs of the companies you shop at. That's valid. However, we'd argue that Elon Musk as a persona is much more associated with Tesla, with 83% of Americans doing so. That means that a negative view of Elon Musk could have an impact on Tesla's primary markets.</p> <p>The net result of this all, regardless of how reasonable anyone thinks it is, is that there's a substantial risk to Tesla.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/10/20/saupload_9776219d09442eb3c98a8fd34966d11e.jpg\"/></picture><figcaption><p>Bloomberg Tesla Owners</p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>According to Bloomberg's 2023 Tesla Owners survey disapproval is a top reason why Tesla owners are walking away, with more than 20% saying yes. Now it's tough to quantify exact risks. However, in the same survey above, 13% of Model 3 owners were planning to leave at all, which means that ~3% of Tesla owners today are considering walking away.</p> <p>However, in Tesla's world, at 2 million vehicles per year, that's 60K vehicles less of Model 3 demand, which is billions of dollars of lost revenue. More importantly, this is coming at the same time as competition is increasing, and EV sales are slowing.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/10/20/saupload_image-placeholder-title.jpg\"/></picture><figcaption><p>Cox Automotive</p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>Tesla has continued to face additional competition which has pushed down its market share to below 50%. From a global market share perspective, the company is still struggling to compete for its crown, with cheap EVs in China and Europe putting substantial pressure on the company. The company competes with BYD for the crown of the top global EV maker.</p> <p>Overall new competition has pushed down Tesla's consideration score:</p> <blockquote><p>Survey data reported by <em>Reuters</em> found that Tesla's \"consideration score\" - a metric used by Caliber to track consumer interest in brands, based on how they respond to the prompt \"I would buy, or continue buying, products and services from Tesla, if given the chance\" - has fallen to 31 percent from its 70 percent high in November 2021, tumbling by 8 percent alone this January. Caliber's consideration scores for rival EV-producing manufacturers Audi, BMW, and Mercedes, meanwhile, increased slightly during the same period, reaching between 44-47 percent.</p></blockquote> <p>In Europe, one of the largest retail chains, Rossmann, has halted plans to purchase EVs as a result of Donald Trump directly. This is a quantifiable risk that could cost the company billions at a time when sales are already flat lining.</p> <h2>Tesla FSD Hardware Class Action</h2> <p>At the same time, after Tesla's lackluster self-driving event, we expect class actions over the company's FSD to ramp up. That's been a major source of the company's profits recently, and the company is already facing some class action lawsuits.</p> <p>It's well known that Tesla FSD has been promised as being around the corner for almost a decade now. Tesla owners with the \"HW3\" package spent more than $10K on this package with the promise of full-self driving. Tesla has continued to make this promise despite releasing \"HW4\" and not offering an upgrade to \"HW3\" owners, saying it would be too expensive.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/10/20/saupload_Screenshot-2024-10-14-at-4.12.48_E2_80_AFPM.jpg\"/></picture><figcaption><p>Bloomberg Disengagement</p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>Tesla's miles to disengagement has barely doubled over the last several years. For perspective, Waymo is at roughly 100x that, and conventional wisdom is that there's much further to go. Think about how often your car would need to go before \"failure\" for you to buy a FSD car with no steering wheel or controls. Tesla is far, far away.</p> <p>Tesla appears to understand the risk with HW3, saying \"let's not get nuanced\" at the event asking the company to confirm, while updating the language on its website. Recent FSD releases indicate that Tesla is hitting the limits of what's possible with HW3, with recent releases coming out on HW4 first instead of HW3.</p> <p>More importantly, HW3 releases now use both computers, which makes it impossible to achieve Level 5 FSD given a requirement for redundant computers.</p> <h2>Thesis Risk</h2> <p>The largest risk to our thesis is that the company's newfound allegiances might change some of the statistics above and make a new group of people more open to EVs. That could help replace lost customers and support Tesla's sales and returns.</p> <h2>Conclusion</h2> <p>Tesla, as we discussed in our prior article, is already trading well above fair value. Now, with recent developments around the election along with the company's FSD event, we see risks increasing. That could potentially cost the company billions in revenue as it's struggling.</p> <p>This adds on to the company's liability with FSD, as the company has made promises that it's now seeing class action lawsuits with. These sales were a massive source of profits for the company and margins, so having to refund them could be massively expensive.</p> <div></div> <p>As a result, this helps to highlight how overvalued Tesla is and why it's a poor investment at this time. Let us know your thoughts in the comments below.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Faces Major Risks In The Future</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ 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class=\"title\">\nTesla Faces Major Risks In The Future\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-10-25 15:15 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4729442-tesla-stock-faces-major-risks-in-future-reiterate-sell><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Tesla faces growing risks due to Elon Musk's political alignment, impacting its primary markets and consumer perception negatively.Political associations influence EV ownership, with Democrats ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4729442-tesla-stock-faces-major-risks-in-future-reiterate-sell\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/497215523/image_497215523.jpg","relate_stocks":{"BK4555":"新能源车","LU2756315318.SGD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMG\" (SGDHDG) INC A","LU1720051108.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE \"AT\" (HKD) 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SGD-H","LU1861215975.USD":"贝莱德新一代科技基金 A2","BK4592":"伊斯兰概念","LU1861558580.USD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B","LU0820561818.USD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金Cl AM DIS","LU1861220033.SGD":"Blackrock Next Generation Technology A2 SGD-H","LU2602419157.SGD":"HSBC ISLAMIC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"AC\" (SGD) ACC","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4729442-tesla-stock-faces-major-risks-in-future-reiterate-sell","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2478675257","content_text":"Tesla faces growing risks due to Elon Musk's political alignment, impacting its primary markets and consumer perception negatively.Political associations influence EV ownership, with Democrats favoring EVs more than Republicans, potentially affecting the Company's market.Increased competition and declining consumer interest have reduced TSLA's market share and consideration score, threatening revenue.Class action lawsuits over Tesla's FSD promises add financial risks, highlighting the company's overvaluation and potential revenue losses.wellesenterprises Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) is one of the largest EV companies in the world, with a market capitalization of more than $700 billion. We recently discussed how the company's fair value is less than a third of its market capitalization. However, as we'll see throughout this article, the company faces risks from a number of avenues including slowing growth, weak FSD, and the association with its founder, Elon Musk, who's vocally aligned himself with the Republican Party. That could have a substantial impact on the company's future growth. Tesla Earnings Tesla saw its share price go up after hours, by double-digits, after announcing respectably strong earnings in a market expecting doom. Tesla Investor Presentation The company also predicted 20% vehicle growth next year; however, we'd like to highlight that this is from the company seeing ~6% YoY growth, and predicted 50% annualized growth last year. We'll believe it when we see it, but we're not optimistic. The company's total revenues increased only 8% YoY supported by services and energy generation and storage. Tesla has continued to hype up autonomy, but as we discussed here, the company is well behind. The company's profit went up, and we will concede that FCF for the company was strong, not surprising given margins in energy generation and storage. However YoY the company's growth in cash and cash equivalents was ~$7.5 billion, not enough to justify its valuation. Given the slowdown in automotive revenues which indicates a shift towards lower margin vehicles, the company's after-hours strength represents a better selling opportunity to us. EVs versus Political Association Given the different stances the parties have taken on climate change, there's a strong political association to EV ownership. EV Politics Tesla itself is known for its largest market being California, where it was founded, the quintessential \"blue\" state. The above chart highlights how by major political party views on EVs vary dramatically. Among Republicans, almost 50% have a mostly unfavorable view on electric-only car brands while only 10% have a mostly favorable view. Among Democrats, the mostly favorable percentage is almost 40% while the mostly unfavorable is only 20%. EV Adoption This is also partially visible in EV ownership registrations per 100K by state. While there are some associations (i.e. blue states tend to have more concentrated / higher populations that could lend themselves well to EV ownership) it's visible that EV ownership varies partially by party association of the step. For example, Colorado has 1.4% EV adoption, while Wyoming next door has <0.2%. Wisconsin has 0.4% while Iowa has 0.25%. This variance helps reaffirm what we stated above, through polls, which is that Democrats are dramatically more likely to own an electric vehicle than Republicans. Elon Musk versus Target Buyers In our view, that association presents a substantial risk given that Elon Musk has aligned himself with the Republican Party's candidate, Donald Trump. Political Alignment The impact of this alignment can be clearly seen in polls asking people of their opinion on Elon Musk. Democrats have an approval rating of 6% which has plummeted from more than 20% while at the same time approval about Republicans has more than doubled from 30% a few years ago to more than 60%. Now you might say you don't care about political opinions on the CEOs of the companies you shop at. That's valid. However, we'd argue that Elon Musk as a persona is much more associated with Tesla, with 83% of Americans doing so. That means that a negative view of Elon Musk could have an impact on Tesla's primary markets. The net result of this all, regardless of how reasonable anyone thinks it is, is that there's a substantial risk to Tesla. Bloomberg Tesla Owners According to Bloomberg's 2023 Tesla Owners survey disapproval is a top reason why Tesla owners are walking away, with more than 20% saying yes. Now it's tough to quantify exact risks. However, in the same survey above, 13% of Model 3 owners were planning to leave at all, which means that ~3% of Tesla owners today are considering walking away. However, in Tesla's world, at 2 million vehicles per year, that's 60K vehicles less of Model 3 demand, which is billions of dollars of lost revenue. More importantly, this is coming at the same time as competition is increasing, and EV sales are slowing. Cox Automotive Tesla has continued to face additional competition which has pushed down its market share to below 50%. From a global market share perspective, the company is still struggling to compete for its crown, with cheap EVs in China and Europe putting substantial pressure on the company. The company competes with BYD for the crown of the top global EV maker. Overall new competition has pushed down Tesla's consideration score: Survey data reported by Reuters found that Tesla's \"consideration score\" - a metric used by Caliber to track consumer interest in brands, based on how they respond to the prompt \"I would buy, or continue buying, products and services from Tesla, if given the chance\" - has fallen to 31 percent from its 70 percent high in November 2021, tumbling by 8 percent alone this January. Caliber's consideration scores for rival EV-producing manufacturers Audi, BMW, and Mercedes, meanwhile, increased slightly during the same period, reaching between 44-47 percent. In Europe, one of the largest retail chains, Rossmann, has halted plans to purchase EVs as a result of Donald Trump directly. This is a quantifiable risk that could cost the company billions at a time when sales are already flat lining. Tesla FSD Hardware Class Action At the same time, after Tesla's lackluster self-driving event, we expect class actions over the company's FSD to ramp up. That's been a major source of the company's profits recently, and the company is already facing some class action lawsuits. It's well known that Tesla FSD has been promised as being around the corner for almost a decade now. Tesla owners with the \"HW3\" package spent more than $10K on this package with the promise of full-self driving. Tesla has continued to make this promise despite releasing \"HW4\" and not offering an upgrade to \"HW3\" owners, saying it would be too expensive. Bloomberg Disengagement Tesla's miles to disengagement has barely doubled over the last several years. For perspective, Waymo is at roughly 100x that, and conventional wisdom is that there's much further to go. Think about how often your car would need to go before \"failure\" for you to buy a FSD car with no steering wheel or controls. Tesla is far, far away. Tesla appears to understand the risk with HW3, saying \"let's not get nuanced\" at the event asking the company to confirm, while updating the language on its website. Recent FSD releases indicate that Tesla is hitting the limits of what's possible with HW3, with recent releases coming out on HW4 first instead of HW3. More importantly, HW3 releases now use both computers, which makes it impossible to achieve Level 5 FSD given a requirement for redundant computers. Thesis Risk The largest risk to our thesis is that the company's newfound allegiances might change some of the statistics above and make a new group of people more open to EVs. That could help replace lost customers and support Tesla's sales and returns. Conclusion Tesla, as we discussed in our prior article, is already trading well above fair value. Now, with recent developments around the election along with the company's FSD event, we see risks increasing. That could potentially cost the company billions in revenue as it's struggling. This adds on to the company's liability with FSD, as the company has made promises that it's now seeing class action lawsuits with. These sales were a massive source of profits for the company and margins, so having to refund them could be massively expensive.  As a result, this helps to highlight how overvalued Tesla is and why it's a poor investment at this time. Let us know your thoughts in the comments below.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":285654516289544,"gmtCreate":1710774663141,"gmtModify":1710831522728,"author":{"id":"4105081372269870","authorId":"4105081372269870","name":"Imthiyas","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/713b089fffd0a4f627af530e8f4039ee","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4105081372269870","authorIdStr":"4105081372269870"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/MARA\">$Marathon Digital Holdings Inc(MARA)$</a>&nbsp; Guys see the volume the big shots already got &nbsp;good volume in 40 percent discount price still they trying to get weak hearted to dump and gather before it starts to shoot up, I always suggest don't dump in cheap,please have patience,if you are weak hearted this counter is not suitable,,","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/MARA\">$Marathon Digital Holdings Inc(MARA)$</a>&nbsp; Guys see the volume the big shots already got &nbsp;good volume in 40 percent discount price still they trying to get weak hearted to dump and gather before it starts to shoot up, I always suggest don't dump in cheap,please have patience,if you are weak hearted this counter is not suitable,,","text":"$Marathon Digital Holdings Inc(MARA)$ Guys see the volume the big shots already got good volume in 40 percent discount price still they trying to get weak hearted to dump and gather before it starts to shoot up, I always suggest don't dump in cheap,please have patience,if you are weak hearted this counter is not suitable,,","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":157,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":8,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/285654516289544","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1194,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":284345069433016,"gmtCreate":1710436110858,"gmtModify":1710436115015,"author":{"id":"4105081372269870","authorId":"4105081372269870","name":"Imthiyas","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/713b089fffd0a4f627af530e8f4039ee","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4105081372269870","authorIdStr":"4105081372269870"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/MARA\">$Marathon Digital Holdings Inc(MARA)$</a> today is the last day to Board, if miss you all will regret of not boarding the flight to the moon,, If you hang tight never give up you will be rewarded,,,","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/MARA\">$Marathon Digital Holdings Inc(MARA)$</a> today is the last day to Board, if miss you all will regret of not boarding the flight to the moon,, If you hang tight never give up you will be rewarded,,,","text":"$Marathon Digital Holdings Inc(MARA)$ today is the last day to Board, if miss you all will regret of not boarding the flight to the moon,, If you hang tight never give up you will be rewarded,,,","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/284345069433016","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":586,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":282133400616968,"gmtCreate":1709908815911,"gmtModify":1709908819049,"author":{"id":"4105081372269870","authorId":"4105081372269870","name":"Imthiyas","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/713b089fffd0a4f627af530e8f4039ee","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4105081372269870","authorIdStr":"4105081372269870"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/MARA\">$Marathon Digital Holdings Inc(MARA)$</a>&nbsp; Don't listen noises, just don't sell at cheap, to the , it is under Grade A stock now💐 Just Hold it , patience will pay you","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/MARA\">$Marathon Digital Holdings Inc(MARA)$</a>&nbsp; Don't listen noises, just don't sell at cheap, to the , it is under Grade A stock now💐 Just Hold it , patience will pay you","text":"$Marathon Digital Holdings Inc(MARA)$ Don't listen noises, just don't sell at cheap, to the , it is under Grade A stock now💐 Just Hold it , patience will pay you","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/282133400616968","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":375,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":281827504951304,"gmtCreate":1709834134352,"gmtModify":1709851900106,"author":{"id":"4105081372269870","authorId":"4105081372269870","name":"Imthiyas","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/713b089fffd0a4f627af530e8f4039ee","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4105081372269870","authorIdStr":"4105081372269870"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/MARA\">$Marathon Digital Holdings Inc(MARA)$</a> guys remember my commentS I said it will go 27 and above,, Guys don't sell by panic and frustrations, keep patience, it will easily go 30 and above, either a real rebound will come soon or a short squeeze may happen very soon, Holddddddd","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/MARA\">$Marathon Digital Holdings Inc(MARA)$</a> guys remember my commentS I said it will go 27 and above,, Guys don't sell by panic and frustrations, keep patience, it will easily go 30 and above, either a real rebound will come soon or a short squeeze may happen very soon, Holddddddd","text":"$Marathon Digital Holdings Inc(MARA)$ guys remember my commentS I said it will go 27 and above,, Guys don't sell by panic and frustrations, keep patience, it will easily go 30 and above, either a real rebound will come soon or a short squeeze may happen very soon, Holddddddd","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/281827504951304","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":630,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":278269166804992,"gmtCreate":1708964428954,"gmtModify":1709005295710,"author":{"id":"4105081372269870","authorId":"4105081372269870","name":"Imthiyas","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/713b089fffd0a4f627af530e8f4039ee","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4105081372269870","authorIdStr":"4105081372269870"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/MARA\">$Marathon Digital Holdings Inc(MARA)$</a> guys remember my commentS I said it will go 27 and above,,","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/MARA\">$Marathon Digital Holdings Inc(MARA)$</a> guys remember my commentS I said it will go 27 and above,,","text":"$Marathon Digital Holdings Inc(MARA)$ guys remember my commentS I said it will go 27 and above,,","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/278269166804992","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":342,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":272027360162016,"gmtCreate":1707450723426,"gmtModify":1707452512930,"author":{"id":"4105081372269870","authorId":"4105081372269870","name":"Imthiyas","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/713b089fffd0a4f627af530e8f4039ee","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4105081372269870","authorIdStr":"4105081372269870"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"You are talking always negative about this counter, don't guide wrongly , your predictions are wrong,&nbsp;","listText":"You are talking always negative about this counter, don't guide wrongly , your predictions are wrong,&nbsp;","text":"You are talking always negative about this counter, don't guide wrongly , your predictions are wrong,","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/272027360162016","repostId":"1162050595","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":336,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":244572443947104,"gmtCreate":1700734174516,"gmtModify":1700735197325,"author":{"id":"4105081372269870","authorId":"4105081372269870","name":"Imthiyas","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/713b089fffd0a4f627af530e8f4039ee","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4105081372269870","authorIdStr":"4105081372269870"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Recession is not going to come, dare&nbsp; To accumulate high percentage return stocks,,","listText":"Recession is not going to come, dare&nbsp; To accumulate high percentage return stocks,,","text":"Recession is not going to come, dare To accumulate high percentage return stocks,,","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/244572443947104","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":163,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":285654516289544,"gmtCreate":1710774663141,"gmtModify":1710831522728,"author":{"id":"4105081372269870","authorId":"4105081372269870","name":"Imthiyas","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/713b089fffd0a4f627af530e8f4039ee","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4105081372269870","authorIdStr":"4105081372269870"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/MARA\">$Marathon Digital Holdings Inc(MARA)$</a>&nbsp; Guys see the volume the big shots already got &nbsp;good volume in 40 percent discount price still they trying to get weak hearted to dump and gather before it starts to shoot up, I always suggest don't dump in cheap,please have patience,if you are weak hearted this counter is not suitable,,","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/MARA\">$Marathon Digital Holdings Inc(MARA)$</a>&nbsp; Guys see the volume the big shots already got &nbsp;good volume in 40 percent discount price still they trying to get weak hearted to dump and gather before it starts to shoot up, I always suggest don't dump in cheap,please have patience,if you are weak hearted this counter is not suitable,,","text":"$Marathon Digital Holdings Inc(MARA)$ Guys see the volume the big shots already got good volume in 40 percent discount price still they trying to get weak hearted to dump and gather before it starts to shoot up, I always suggest don't dump in cheap,please have patience,if you are weak hearted this counter is not suitable,,","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":157,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":8,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/285654516289544","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1194,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":282133400616968,"gmtCreate":1709908815911,"gmtModify":1709908819049,"author":{"id":"4105081372269870","authorId":"4105081372269870","name":"Imthiyas","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/713b089fffd0a4f627af530e8f4039ee","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4105081372269870","authorIdStr":"4105081372269870"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/MARA\">$Marathon Digital Holdings Inc(MARA)$</a>&nbsp; Don't listen noises, just don't sell at cheap, to the , it is under Grade A stock now💐 Just Hold it , patience will pay you","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/MARA\">$Marathon Digital Holdings Inc(MARA)$</a>&nbsp; Don't listen noises, just don't sell at cheap, to the , it is under Grade A stock now💐 Just Hold it , patience will pay you","text":"$Marathon Digital Holdings Inc(MARA)$ Don't listen noises, just don't sell at cheap, to the , it is under Grade A stock now💐 Just Hold it , patience will pay you","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/282133400616968","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":375,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":284345069433016,"gmtCreate":1710436110858,"gmtModify":1710436115015,"author":{"id":"4105081372269870","authorId":"4105081372269870","name":"Imthiyas","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/713b089fffd0a4f627af530e8f4039ee","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4105081372269870","authorIdStr":"4105081372269870"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/MARA\">$Marathon Digital Holdings Inc(MARA)$</a> today is the last day to Board, if miss you all will regret of not boarding the flight to the moon,, If you hang tight never give up you will be rewarded,,,","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/MARA\">$Marathon Digital Holdings Inc(MARA)$</a> today is the last day to Board, if miss you all will regret of not boarding the flight to the moon,, If you hang tight never give up you will be rewarded,,,","text":"$Marathon Digital Holdings Inc(MARA)$ today is the last day to Board, if miss you all will regret of not boarding the flight to the moon,, If you hang tight never give up you will be rewarded,,,","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/284345069433016","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":586,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":281827504951304,"gmtCreate":1709834134352,"gmtModify":1709851900106,"author":{"id":"4105081372269870","authorId":"4105081372269870","name":"Imthiyas","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/713b089fffd0a4f627af530e8f4039ee","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4105081372269870","authorIdStr":"4105081372269870"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/MARA\">$Marathon Digital Holdings Inc(MARA)$</a> guys remember my commentS I said it will go 27 and above,, Guys don't sell by panic and frustrations, keep patience, it will easily go 30 and above, either a real rebound will come soon or a short squeeze may happen very soon, Holddddddd","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/MARA\">$Marathon Digital Holdings Inc(MARA)$</a> guys remember my commentS I said it will go 27 and above,, Guys don't sell by panic and frustrations, keep patience, it will easily go 30 and above, either a real rebound will come soon or a short squeeze may happen very soon, Holddddddd","text":"$Marathon Digital Holdings Inc(MARA)$ guys remember my commentS I said it will go 27 and above,, Guys don't sell by panic and frustrations, keep patience, it will easily go 30 and above, either a real rebound will come soon or a short squeeze may happen very soon, Holddddddd","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/281827504951304","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":630,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":365237912133688,"gmtCreate":1730179750599,"gmtModify":1730179755344,"author":{"id":"4105081372269870","authorId":"4105081372269870","name":"Imthiyas","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/713b089fffd0a4f627af530e8f4039ee","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4105081372269870","authorIdStr":"4105081372269870"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I don't trust you anything you say , regarding Tesla, please you are not eligible to analyse the Top businessman mind .,&nbsp;","listText":"I don't trust you anything you say , regarding Tesla, please you are not eligible to analyse the Top businessman mind .,&nbsp;","text":"I don't trust you anything you say , regarding Tesla, please you are not eligible to analyse the Top businessman mind .,","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/365237912133688","repostId":"1130557209","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1130557209","pubTimestamp":1730178672,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1130557209?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-10-29 13:11","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla: A Rare Opportunity Presents Itself (Rating Upgrade)","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1130557209","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryTesla, Inc.'s Q3 2024 report and Robotaxi event provided enough insights and details to allow proper valuation of the segment.Most business segments are revised up in my intrinsic valuation, bo","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2 id=\"id_1110977808\">Summary</h2><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Tesla, Inc.&#39;s Q3 2024 report and Robotaxi event provided enough insights and details to allow proper valuation of the segment.</p></li><li><p>Most business segments are revised up in my intrinsic valuation, both in terms of growth and profitability.</p></li><li><p>The energy segment shows exponential growth both in terms of sales and gross margins. This should be a core driver moving forward.</p></li><li><p>Tesla trades at fair intrinsic value without valuing the robotics segment. This provides optionality where investors get robotics for free, whatever it may output in the future.</p></li></ul><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ea846c85f05cf55e98aebf60aa138e07\" alt=\"10th Annual Breakthrough Prize Ceremony\" title=\"10th Annual Breakthrough Prize Ceremony\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\"/><span>10th Annual Breakthrough Prize Ceremony</span></p><p></p><p>My approach to <strong>Tesla, Inc.</strong> (NASDAQ:TSLA) has been laid out in two previous articles on Seeking Alpha (article 1, article 2). It revolves around paying for the tangible core business segments and receiving the potential segments for free. When I value the business, I only value the segments that exist today or that have a clear roadmap and that contribute to the core drivers of the business. Segments like Robotaxi and robotics were previously excluded due to the lack of information regarding output and timelines.</p><p>However, as of the Q3 2024 report, we now have a lot more tangible details regarding Robotaxi and I can now incorporate that segment into my valuation. With some new details regarding the business, Tesla is now undervalued and a buy again, despite the recent surge in the stock price.</p><p>I will break down each segment of my sum-of-the-parts valuation model and walk you through the input changes from my previous two articles, which were more detailed per segment. I recommend reading either one, or both, of my previous articles for more details regarding each segment, as I think articles will start to become very bloated if I reiterate each detail over and over. Instead, the focus is on identifying hints that help us project future drivers for the business as well as looking for a positive outlook for the shorter term.</p><h2 id=\"id_2078300066\">Automotive</h2><p>With the recent Robotaxi event, we gained some details about the production and price point of Cybercab. In addition, during the Q3 earnings call, CEO Elon Musk mentioned the following:</p><blockquote><p>I do feel confident of Cybercab reaching volume production in &#39;26. So just starting production, reaching volume production in &#39;26. And that&#39;s -- that should be substantial. And we&#39;re aiming for at least 2 million units a year of Cybercab. That&#39;ll be in more than one factory, but I think it&#39;s at least 2 million units a year, maybe 4 million ultimately.</p></blockquote><p>The details are a bit up for interpretation, but my takeaway is that Elon Musk projects roughly 2 million vehicles per year as of 2026, scaling up to 4 million vehicles. If we take the price point into consideration, which was said to be ~$30,000, that results in a net addition of ~$60 billion per year in automotive revenue by 2026 from Cybercab alone. There are some problems with the statement, though, as Tesla does not have the capacity for that output as of the time of writing.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/bf79fce18f42ec6c508bbe8c0bfd6232\" alt=\"Tesla production capacity\" title=\"Tesla production capacity\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"318\"/><span>Tesla production capacity</span></p><p></p><p>With their current capacity, they would have to sack current models to reach that, which would impact revenues negatively as the automotive segment is doing ~$75 billion on a trailing 12-month basis currently. What is more likely is that capacity will increase, and we will likely see new factories being built out to support the projected output. We will keep this in mind as we will have to project higher capital expenditures in the reinvestment portion of our valuation model later.</p><p>The sensible approach, in my opinion, is to account for a slight increase in market share as of 2026 and onwards, to accommodate the launch of Cybercabs, and also increase the operating margins of these vehicles. In my opinion, it is likely that the Cybercab platform will be easier and cheaper to manufacture than current lineups, driving higher margins.</p><p>The assumptions are also supported by this comment from the Q3 earnings call, also made by CEO Elon Musk:</p><blockquote><p></p><p>I do want to give some rough estimate, which is I think it&#39;s 20% to 30% vehicle growth next year [...]</p><p>I think with our lower-cost vehicles with the advent of autonomy something like a 20% to 30% growth next year is my best guess.</p></blockquote><p>Here are my updated projections for the automotive segment, reflecting a slight increase in market share as well as a margin improvement.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/79ab14b84cb766b2a77752de53614d89\" alt=\"Automotive projections\" title=\"Automotive projections\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"94\"/><span>Automotive projections</span></p><p></p><p>In the shorter term, investors were given plenty of positive catalysts, which likely contributed to the market rewarding Tesla with a +22% share price increase on the day following the Q3 earnings. First, deliveries were up year-over-year (YoY) for the first time in 2024, and it came with a 137 basis points gross margin improvement YoY, which at 19.6% is the best recorded gross profit margin since Q1 of 2023 (20.5%). This comes as the Chinese market picks up and accelerates again, breaking a potential downtrend that had investors worried.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/dbd33515998637b7b9ac14f1f6e5361e\" alt=\"Tesla automotive geographical revenue\" title=\"Tesla automotive geographical revenue\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"324\"/><span>Tesla automotive geographical revenue</span></p><p></p><p>Another positive note is that capacity utilization increased by 10% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ), breaking another negative downtrend while still delivering ~100% of production output. This means that every car being produced is also sold, not taking inventory into consideration. The reason we sometimes see periods with more than 100% deliveries as a percentage of production is when inventory is clearing out in addition to new production.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/08a5434d482345b41577666399e93bb0\" alt=\"Tesla deliveries and production\" title=\"Tesla deliveries and production\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"317\"/><span>Tesla deliveries and production</span></p><p></p><h2 id=\"id_3058587934\">Energy</h2><p>Compared to my first article, the energy segment has been cut down to only account for the energy generation and storage part of Tesla since we no longer get information regarding the solar business since Q4 of 2023. We are currently witnessing a massive expansion of this segment by Tesla, both in storage deployment and recorded sales. Q3 of 2024 proves that the prior quarter of 157% YoY growth in deployment was not a mere anomaly but a new exponential growth curve forming. While Q3 was not quite as impressive, Tesla still grew the quarter 73% YoY against a much more difficult comparison period compared to Q2.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d08df47b9aa229945e48bf82b843a387\" alt=\"Tesla Energy generation and storage\" title=\"Tesla Energy generation and storage\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"318\"/><span>Tesla Energy generation and storage</span></p><p></p><p>While Q3 recorded ~$600 million less revenue compared to Q2, the difference in gross profit was only $15 million. Tesla is becoming increasingly profitable in this segment, which has led me to increase my profitability projections for the segment as well as drive slightly stronger revenues into the future as it is proving to be a core segment.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/888b7a28abb608f08b6f5d6b74e86afa\" alt=\"Tesla energy gross profit and margins\" title=\"Tesla energy gross profit and margins\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"293\"/><span>Tesla energy gross profit and margins</span></p><p></p><p>I have left the ending period&#39;s operating margin the same and only ramped up how quickly they get there, as I still can&#39;t tell a story in my valuation where Tesla exceeds 23% operating margins for the segment. As for an increase in revenues, I only adjusted 2024 and 2025 to reflect the accelerated pace, but ultimately, the periods onwards are left in accordance with my previous projections. I already accounted for energy being a large driver, and I only really got hints of an accelerated route to reach the end goal, but not enough to change the goalpost. Elon notes the following during the earnings call, supporting the current outlook:</p><blockquote><p>So, let&#39;s see. And we also have the energy storage business is growing like wildfire, with strong demand for both Megapack and Powerwall.</p></blockquote><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/eeb55be9fa5afacb313e6c72e8249722\" alt=\"Tesla energy projections\" title=\"Tesla energy projections\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"67\"/><span>Tesla energy projections</span></p><p></p><h2 id=\"id_1127281948\">Services excluding Robotaxi and Robotics</h2><p>I have divided the services segment into multiple parts, historically excluding robotaxi and robotics as these are separate segments in my valuation sum-of-the-parts model. Instead, services mainly consist of automotive servicing as well as full self-driving (FSD). Tesla gives us very little information to work with for this segment; therefore, I have to make many assumptions. For the automotive servicing segment, I have based the margin profile to be in line with industry standards more or less. There is an increase towards the latter periods to account for Tesla&#39;s efficiency and growth in miscellaneous line items attributed to servicing, such as spare parts manufacturing. The revenue reflects a percentage of automotive sales, partly in line with historical averages, but also accounting for an increase in efficiencies. There are no changes to this segment compared to previous articles.</p><p>However, the FSD segment has received some assumption changes to reflect the recent Robotaxi event. This is mainly represented in an increase in the adoption rate, ramping up a bit faster after the launch of the Cybercab in 2026. Unfortunately, Tesla does not disclose adoption rates for FSD, and there are various reports citing anything from a 5% adoption rate to something like 20% at the time of writing. I have a more modest approach, believing the FSD adoption rate is in the single digits right now, and after more widespread regulatory approval of the technology, I believe it will reach up to ~40% by 2033. If we are to believe CEO Elon Musk, it should be significantly higher, as the future is said to be fully autonomous by the CEO. However, I believe my current projections reflect the reality provided by the information we have available today.</p><p>The way I calculate FSD revenue is to assume a 5-year life length per vehicle. I then get an estimated vehicle sales figure by dividing the current average sales price by the projected future revenue. The reason I don&#39;t try to adjust the median cost per vehicle in my model is because there are too many variables affecting future median sales prices for the Tesla fleet. For one, we have no idea what the fleet is composed of 10 years out, what they&#39;ll be selling for, what the inflation rates will look like, and so forth. I take the simple approach of adjusting the model to use the latest available median cost per vehicle, which is calculated by dividing automotive revenues by automotive deliveries not subject to operating leases.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ee3f7819d9ab7e4d89634e7df37be715\" alt=\"Tesla vehicle deliveries and average sales price\" title=\"Tesla vehicle deliveries and average sales price\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"318\"/><span>Tesla vehicle deliveries and average sales price</span></p><p></p><p>The reason this calculation is important is that it impacts the FSD revenue because I calculate FSD revenue by multiplying the assumed FSD annual cost (subscription) by the trailing twelve months of vehicles on FSD, calculated by using the adoption rate. This method may inflate the vehicles sold per period, but by having a conservative approach to the adoption rate, it normalizes the figure.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/de8c98731cc6fd2c9288fe5b05e7ab90\" alt=\"Tesla FSD sales\" title=\"Tesla FSD sales\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"138\"/><span>Tesla FSD sales</span></p><p></p><h2 id=\"id_1178059110\">Robotaxi</h2><p>In my two previous articles, I excluded the Robotaxi segment from the base model because it was not much more than speculation as a result of a few hints by Tesla. Now the segment is a lot more tangible, with specific timelines and figures given to support it. As such, I have decided not to include it as part of optionality any longer, but instead incorporate it into my main model. However, it is still modeled to leave a lot of margin of safety. This means that I am actively valuing the segment, and I am paying for it. Before, whatever Robotaxi results would have been, they would have been given to me &#34;for free&#34; as long as I purchased shares below intrinsic value.</p><p>This segment does not include actual sales of Cybercabs; instead, it focuses on the service, meaning the software and application. The way I approach Robotaxi revenue is to look at the ride-hailing market projections and assume a market share of this. Operating margins are significantly higher than companies like Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER) since the operations will exclude plenty of expenses that UBER has to incur. For one, the main expense associated with Robotaxis will be FSD as well as the actual vehicle production costs, none of which are included in this segment.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/df888393e50c626721ce670356ea4d54\" alt=\"Robotaxi projections\" title=\"Robotaxi projections\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"70\"/><span>Robotaxi projections</span></p><p></p><p>I don&#39;t think the solution will have wide regulatory approval any time in this decade, and as such, the market share I assign Tesla is relatively low. The ride-hailing market is not particularly crowded; there are only a few main businesses operating within it. However, once regulatory approval is more widely spread, Tesla will have a quick scaling mechanism, as not only Cybercabs will be eligible for the service but also all Teslas. Elon Musk mentions that there won&#39;t really be a need for parking spaces anymore, as a Robotaxi fleet can operate around the clock.</p><p>Tesla owners can connect their vehicles to the network and make money whenever they don&#39;t make use of their vehicles themselves. It&#39;s an interesting concept and one that may be a highly lucrative business in and of itself, but it is still too early to put too much faith into overly bullish projections for the segment. It starts off in 2026 with a ~0.21% market share and tops off at ~14% in 2033. These figures will likely have to be constantly monitored and updated as we grow closer to the launch of the Cybercab.</p><h2 id=\"id_404536890\">Valuation</h2><p>Now that we have our projections, we can incorporate all the segments in our sum-of-the-parts valuation model and create our intrinsic valuation. There are a few key assumptions made:</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>The discount rate is composed of the implied equity risk premium for the month of October (as calculated by Professor Aswath Damodaran), the risk-free rate, and a rather hefty execution risk of 2% assigned by me for Tesla. The execution risk reflects high uncertainty in future performance relative to more predictable businesses.</p></li><li><p>The terminal growth rate is anchored to the risk-free rate. Some like to set a static figure here like 2 or 3%, but economists can&#39;t forecast the next quarter&#39;s economic growth, let alone more than 10 periods out. Instead of using a historical average, I use a rate that reflects the implied economic growth set by the market at the time of the valuation, with the risk-free rate as a proxy for that.</p></li><li><p>Stock-based compensation, or SBC, is accounted for by diluting the outstanding share per period and calculating free cash flow to the firm on a per-share basis. As stock-based compensation is not a cash expense, it should not affect free cash flow. However, it is important to capture the dilutive effect of this type of compensation, and the best approach, in my opinion, is to dilute the outstanding shares per period.</p></li></ul><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9fc697ff3139cbc1793c9a2f51aea5b6\" alt=\"Tesla DCF model\" title=\"Tesla DCF model\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\"/><span>Tesla DCF model</span></p><p></p><p>These inputs give me a fair intrinsic value per share of ~$273, roughly in line with the closing price as of Friday, the 25th of October. This is after Tesla&#39;s massive increase in share price after the Q3 earnings report. Tesla at around fair intrinsic value is a buy for me, especially considering that we have the optionality of not paying for the robotics or supercharger network segment. Whatever these two segments may contribute to the future, we receive it for free by not valuing them in our sum-of-the-parts model.</p><h2 id=\"id_4145974097\">Risks</h2><p>Whenever you value a business where most of the value is terminal, meaning outside the projection periods, you really have to be cautious in your projections. It is easy to get swept up in the hype from the CEO, claiming there is merit to the ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) projections of reaching $20-30 trillion of market cap in the years to come. Here is a quote from the Q2 earnings call:</p><blockquote><p>That&#39;s why my rough estimate long-term is in accordance with the ARK [ph] Invest analysis of market cap on the order of $5 trillion for -- maybe more for autonomous transport, and it&#39;s several times that number for general purpose humanoid robots.</p></blockquote><p>I try to be sensible in my approach and root the assumptions in a more cautious approach backed by what is tangible. It is important to have an understanding of the future outlook of the business and track it closely. Some I choose to be careful regarding Tesla, as investors can really be swept away in the tides of excitement. Tesla is an exciting company, but be careful what you pay for.</p><h2 id=\"id_1078179166\">Summary</h2><p>The period between Q2 and Q3 earnings in 2024 provided investors with a lot of new insight and input into the business. Tesla has given comments for each business driver, which can be extrapolated into future periods, even though a cautious approach is advisable. Most segments in my sum-of-the-parts have seen revisions to the upside in terms of growth and profitability, and with the addition of Robotaxi as a segment, it is now fairly valued.</p><p>Any time I can get a wonderful business like Tesla at fair value that usually trades overvalued, it&#39;s an opportunity. Most of the value is terminal, and as such, I tend to be cautious with my projections. With a proper margin of safety and plenty of optionality in terms of the robotics segment, I have upgraded Tesla to a buy from a hold.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla: A Rare Opportunity Presents Itself (Rating Upgrade)</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla: A Rare Opportunity Presents Itself (Rating Upgrade)\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-10-29 13:11 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4730129-tesla-rare-opportunity-presents-itself-rating-upgrade><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryTesla, Inc.'s Q3 2024 report and Robotaxi event provided enough insights and details to allow proper valuation of the segment.Most business segments are revised up in my intrinsic valuation, ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4730129-tesla-rare-opportunity-presents-itself-rating-upgrade\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4730129-tesla-rare-opportunity-presents-itself-rating-upgrade","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1130557209","content_text":"SummaryTesla, Inc.'s Q3 2024 report and Robotaxi event provided enough insights and details to allow proper valuation of the segment.Most business segments are revised up in my intrinsic valuation, both in terms of growth and profitability.The energy segment shows exponential growth both in terms of sales and gross margins. This should be a core driver moving forward.Tesla trades at fair intrinsic value without valuing the robotics segment. This provides optionality where investors get robotics for free, whatever it may output in the future.10th Annual Breakthrough Prize CeremonyMy approach to Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) has been laid out in two previous articles on Seeking Alpha (article 1, article 2). It revolves around paying for the tangible core business segments and receiving the potential segments for free. When I value the business, I only value the segments that exist today or that have a clear roadmap and that contribute to the core drivers of the business. Segments like Robotaxi and robotics were previously excluded due to the lack of information regarding output and timelines.However, as of the Q3 2024 report, we now have a lot more tangible details regarding Robotaxi and I can now incorporate that segment into my valuation. With some new details regarding the business, Tesla is now undervalued and a buy again, despite the recent surge in the stock price.I will break down each segment of my sum-of-the-parts valuation model and walk you through the input changes from my previous two articles, which were more detailed per segment. I recommend reading either one, or both, of my previous articles for more details regarding each segment, as I think articles will start to become very bloated if I reiterate each detail over and over. Instead, the focus is on identifying hints that help us project future drivers for the business as well as looking for a positive outlook for the shorter term.AutomotiveWith the recent Robotaxi event, we gained some details about the production and price point of Cybercab. In addition, during the Q3 earnings call, CEO Elon Musk mentioned the following:I do feel confident of Cybercab reaching volume production in '26. So just starting production, reaching volume production in '26. And that's -- that should be substantial. And we're aiming for at least 2 million units a year of Cybercab. That'll be in more than one factory, but I think it's at least 2 million units a year, maybe 4 million ultimately.The details are a bit up for interpretation, but my takeaway is that Elon Musk projects roughly 2 million vehicles per year as of 2026, scaling up to 4 million vehicles. If we take the price point into consideration, which was said to be ~$30,000, that results in a net addition of ~$60 billion per year in automotive revenue by 2026 from Cybercab alone. There are some problems with the statement, though, as Tesla does not have the capacity for that output as of the time of writing.Tesla production capacityWith their current capacity, they would have to sack current models to reach that, which would impact revenues negatively as the automotive segment is doing ~$75 billion on a trailing 12-month basis currently. What is more likely is that capacity will increase, and we will likely see new factories being built out to support the projected output. We will keep this in mind as we will have to project higher capital expenditures in the reinvestment portion of our valuation model later.The sensible approach, in my opinion, is to account for a slight increase in market share as of 2026 and onwards, to accommodate the launch of Cybercabs, and also increase the operating margins of these vehicles. In my opinion, it is likely that the Cybercab platform will be easier and cheaper to manufacture than current lineups, driving higher margins.The assumptions are also supported by this comment from the Q3 earnings call, also made by CEO Elon Musk:I do want to give some rough estimate, which is I think it's 20% to 30% vehicle growth next year [...]I think with our lower-cost vehicles with the advent of autonomy something like a 20% to 30% growth next year is my best guess.Here are my updated projections for the automotive segment, reflecting a slight increase in market share as well as a margin improvement.Automotive projectionsIn the shorter term, investors were given plenty of positive catalysts, which likely contributed to the market rewarding Tesla with a +22% share price increase on the day following the Q3 earnings. First, deliveries were up year-over-year (YoY) for the first time in 2024, and it came with a 137 basis points gross margin improvement YoY, which at 19.6% is the best recorded gross profit margin since Q1 of 2023 (20.5%). This comes as the Chinese market picks up and accelerates again, breaking a potential downtrend that had investors worried.Tesla automotive geographical revenueAnother positive note is that capacity utilization increased by 10% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ), breaking another negative downtrend while still delivering ~100% of production output. This means that every car being produced is also sold, not taking inventory into consideration. The reason we sometimes see periods with more than 100% deliveries as a percentage of production is when inventory is clearing out in addition to new production.Tesla deliveries and productionEnergyCompared to my first article, the energy segment has been cut down to only account for the energy generation and storage part of Tesla since we no longer get information regarding the solar business since Q4 of 2023. We are currently witnessing a massive expansion of this segment by Tesla, both in storage deployment and recorded sales. Q3 of 2024 proves that the prior quarter of 157% YoY growth in deployment was not a mere anomaly but a new exponential growth curve forming. While Q3 was not quite as impressive, Tesla still grew the quarter 73% YoY against a much more difficult comparison period compared to Q2.Tesla Energy generation and storageWhile Q3 recorded ~$600 million less revenue compared to Q2, the difference in gross profit was only $15 million. Tesla is becoming increasingly profitable in this segment, which has led me to increase my profitability projections for the segment as well as drive slightly stronger revenues into the future as it is proving to be a core segment.Tesla energy gross profit and marginsI have left the ending period's operating margin the same and only ramped up how quickly they get there, as I still can't tell a story in my valuation where Tesla exceeds 23% operating margins for the segment. As for an increase in revenues, I only adjusted 2024 and 2025 to reflect the accelerated pace, but ultimately, the periods onwards are left in accordance with my previous projections. I already accounted for energy being a large driver, and I only really got hints of an accelerated route to reach the end goal, but not enough to change the goalpost. Elon notes the following during the earnings call, supporting the current outlook:So, let's see. And we also have the energy storage business is growing like wildfire, with strong demand for both Megapack and Powerwall.Tesla energy projectionsServices excluding Robotaxi and RoboticsI have divided the services segment into multiple parts, historically excluding robotaxi and robotics as these are separate segments in my valuation sum-of-the-parts model. Instead, services mainly consist of automotive servicing as well as full self-driving (FSD). Tesla gives us very little information to work with for this segment; therefore, I have to make many assumptions. For the automotive servicing segment, I have based the margin profile to be in line with industry standards more or less. There is an increase towards the latter periods to account for Tesla's efficiency and growth in miscellaneous line items attributed to servicing, such as spare parts manufacturing. The revenue reflects a percentage of automotive sales, partly in line with historical averages, but also accounting for an increase in efficiencies. There are no changes to this segment compared to previous articles.However, the FSD segment has received some assumption changes to reflect the recent Robotaxi event. This is mainly represented in an increase in the adoption rate, ramping up a bit faster after the launch of the Cybercab in 2026. Unfortunately, Tesla does not disclose adoption rates for FSD, and there are various reports citing anything from a 5% adoption rate to something like 20% at the time of writing. I have a more modest approach, believing the FSD adoption rate is in the single digits right now, and after more widespread regulatory approval of the technology, I believe it will reach up to ~40% by 2033. If we are to believe CEO Elon Musk, it should be significantly higher, as the future is said to be fully autonomous by the CEO. However, I believe my current projections reflect the reality provided by the information we have available today.The way I calculate FSD revenue is to assume a 5-year life length per vehicle. I then get an estimated vehicle sales figure by dividing the current average sales price by the projected future revenue. The reason I don't try to adjust the median cost per vehicle in my model is because there are too many variables affecting future median sales prices for the Tesla fleet. For one, we have no idea what the fleet is composed of 10 years out, what they'll be selling for, what the inflation rates will look like, and so forth. I take the simple approach of adjusting the model to use the latest available median cost per vehicle, which is calculated by dividing automotive revenues by automotive deliveries not subject to operating leases.Tesla vehicle deliveries and average sales priceThe reason this calculation is important is that it impacts the FSD revenue because I calculate FSD revenue by multiplying the assumed FSD annual cost (subscription) by the trailing twelve months of vehicles on FSD, calculated by using the adoption rate. This method may inflate the vehicles sold per period, but by having a conservative approach to the adoption rate, it normalizes the figure.Tesla FSD salesRobotaxiIn my two previous articles, I excluded the Robotaxi segment from the base model because it was not much more than speculation as a result of a few hints by Tesla. Now the segment is a lot more tangible, with specific timelines and figures given to support it. As such, I have decided not to include it as part of optionality any longer, but instead incorporate it into my main model. However, it is still modeled to leave a lot of margin of safety. This means that I am actively valuing the segment, and I am paying for it. Before, whatever Robotaxi results would have been, they would have been given to me \"for free\" as long as I purchased shares below intrinsic value.This segment does not include actual sales of Cybercabs; instead, it focuses on the service, meaning the software and application. The way I approach Robotaxi revenue is to look at the ride-hailing market projections and assume a market share of this. Operating margins are significantly higher than companies like Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER) since the operations will exclude plenty of expenses that UBER has to incur. For one, the main expense associated with Robotaxis will be FSD as well as the actual vehicle production costs, none of which are included in this segment.Robotaxi projectionsI don't think the solution will have wide regulatory approval any time in this decade, and as such, the market share I assign Tesla is relatively low. The ride-hailing market is not particularly crowded; there are only a few main businesses operating within it. However, once regulatory approval is more widely spread, Tesla will have a quick scaling mechanism, as not only Cybercabs will be eligible for the service but also all Teslas. Elon Musk mentions that there won't really be a need for parking spaces anymore, as a Robotaxi fleet can operate around the clock.Tesla owners can connect their vehicles to the network and make money whenever they don't make use of their vehicles themselves. It's an interesting concept and one that may be a highly lucrative business in and of itself, but it is still too early to put too much faith into overly bullish projections for the segment. It starts off in 2026 with a ~0.21% market share and tops off at ~14% in 2033. These figures will likely have to be constantly monitored and updated as we grow closer to the launch of the Cybercab.ValuationNow that we have our projections, we can incorporate all the segments in our sum-of-the-parts valuation model and create our intrinsic valuation. There are a few key assumptions made:The discount rate is composed of the implied equity risk premium for the month of October (as calculated by Professor Aswath Damodaran), the risk-free rate, and a rather hefty execution risk of 2% assigned by me for Tesla. The execution risk reflects high uncertainty in future performance relative to more predictable businesses.The terminal growth rate is anchored to the risk-free rate. Some like to set a static figure here like 2 or 3%, but economists can't forecast the next quarter's economic growth, let alone more than 10 periods out. Instead of using a historical average, I use a rate that reflects the implied economic growth set by the market at the time of the valuation, with the risk-free rate as a proxy for that.Stock-based compensation, or SBC, is accounted for by diluting the outstanding share per period and calculating free cash flow to the firm on a per-share basis. As stock-based compensation is not a cash expense, it should not affect free cash flow. However, it is important to capture the dilutive effect of this type of compensation, and the best approach, in my opinion, is to dilute the outstanding shares per period.Tesla DCF modelThese inputs give me a fair intrinsic value per share of ~$273, roughly in line with the closing price as of Friday, the 25th of October. This is after Tesla's massive increase in share price after the Q3 earnings report. Tesla at around fair intrinsic value is a buy for me, especially considering that we have the optionality of not paying for the robotics or supercharger network segment. Whatever these two segments may contribute to the future, we receive it for free by not valuing them in our sum-of-the-parts model.RisksWhenever you value a business where most of the value is terminal, meaning outside the projection periods, you really have to be cautious in your projections. It is easy to get swept up in the hype from the CEO, claiming there is merit to the ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) projections of reaching $20-30 trillion of market cap in the years to come. Here is a quote from the Q2 earnings call:That's why my rough estimate long-term is in accordance with the ARK [ph] Invest analysis of market cap on the order of $5 trillion for -- maybe more for autonomous transport, and it's several times that number for general purpose humanoid robots.I try to be sensible in my approach and root the assumptions in a more cautious approach backed by what is tangible. It is important to have an understanding of the future outlook of the business and track it closely. Some I choose to be careful regarding Tesla, as investors can really be swept away in the tides of excitement. Tesla is an exciting company, but be careful what you pay for.SummaryThe period between Q2 and Q3 earnings in 2024 provided investors with a lot of new insight and input into the business. Tesla has given comments for each business driver, which can be extrapolated into future periods, even though a cautious approach is advisable. Most segments in my sum-of-the-parts have seen revisions to the upside in terms of growth and profitability, and with the addition of Robotaxi as a segment, it is now fairly valued.Any time I can get a wonderful business like Tesla at fair value that usually trades overvalued, it's an opportunity. Most of the value is terminal, and as such, I tend to be cautious with my projections. With a proper margin of safety and plenty of optionality in terms of the robotics segment, I have upgraded Tesla to a buy from a hold.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":22,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":278269166804992,"gmtCreate":1708964428954,"gmtModify":1709005295710,"author":{"id":"4105081372269870","authorId":"4105081372269870","name":"Imthiyas","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/713b089fffd0a4f627af530e8f4039ee","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4105081372269870","authorIdStr":"4105081372269870"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/MARA\">$Marathon Digital Holdings Inc(MARA)$</a> guys remember my commentS I said it will go 27 and above,,","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/MARA\">$Marathon Digital Holdings Inc(MARA)$</a> guys remember my commentS I said it will go 27 and above,,","text":"$Marathon Digital Holdings Inc(MARA)$ guys remember my commentS I said it will go 27 and above,,","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/278269166804992","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":342,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":272027360162016,"gmtCreate":1707450723426,"gmtModify":1707452512930,"author":{"id":"4105081372269870","authorId":"4105081372269870","name":"Imthiyas","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/713b089fffd0a4f627af530e8f4039ee","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4105081372269870","authorIdStr":"4105081372269870"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"You are talking always negative about this counter, don't guide wrongly , your predictions are wrong,&nbsp;","listText":"You are talking always negative about this counter, don't guide wrongly , your predictions are wrong,&nbsp;","text":"You are talking always negative about this counter, don't guide wrongly , your predictions are wrong,","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/272027360162016","repostId":"1162050595","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1162050595","pubTimestamp":1707449536,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1162050595?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-02-09 11:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"MARA Stock Short-Squeezes Higher as Bitcoin Takes $45,000","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1162050595","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"$Marathon$ stock is up 23% today in what may be a short-squeeze effort in progress.MARA has a notably high short interest, covering 22.36% of the float.While it’s possible investors are buying MARA as a result of Bitcoin’s  recent strength, it remains unclear.There may be a Marathon  stock short-squeeze in the making today as the crypto mining company surges as Bitcoin  inches past the all-important $45,000 psychological barrier.What’s up with MARA stock lately?","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MARA\">Marathon</a> stock is up 23% today in what may be a short-squeeze effort in progress.</p></li><li><p>MARA has a notably high short interest, covering 22.36% of the float.</p></li><li><p>While it’s possible investors are buying MARA as a result of Bitcoin’s (BTC-USD) recent strength, it remains unclear.</p></li></ul><p>There may be a Marathon (NASDAQ:MARA) stock short-squeeze in the making today as the crypto mining company surges as Bitcoin (BTC-USD) inches past the all-important $45,000 psychological barrier.</p><h3 id=\"id_1338185557\">What’s up with MARA stock lately?</h3><p>Well, MARA is up a surprise 23% today, likely benefiting from the rise of the price of the primary commodity it mines: Bitcoin. Indeed, BTC is up 5% over the past five trading days, recently even crossing the $45,000 per coin threshold.</p><p>While the stock is likely receiving a boost from Bitcoin’s recent climb, it’s likely not what’s behind today’s jump, at least not entirely. According to data from the financial data site Fintel, MARA stock has a notably high short interest.</p><p>MARA has a 22.36% short interest, far higher than most normal securities. This suggests that the stock’s recent surge may be the result of an ongoing short squeeze.</p><h3 id=\"id_2435892240\">Is There a MARA Stock Short-Squeeze in the Making?</h3><p>A short squeeze entails an organized effort to raise the price of a security as part of a plan to force those who hold short shares of said security to sell their holdings, thus pushing the stock up even more. As stock prices rise, those with short positions on the security are “squeezed” into selling as a way to avoid sometimes substantial losses.</p><p>Short squeezes have become something of a mainstay among Reddit investors, with companies like Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) and GameStop (NASDAQ:GME) experiencing historic rallies off the back of investor manipulation. The latter, in particular, saw the video game retailer climb to an all-time high of $500 per share, from just $17, purely from the effort of thousands of r/WallStreetBets investors.</p><p>While it’s difficult to tell if today’s jump falls into short-squeeze territory, MARA’s high short interest certainly strengthens the case.</p><p>After today’s gains, MARA stock is still down more than 8% year-to-date, though the company is up 209% in the last 12 months.</p></body></html>","source":"investorplace_stock_picks","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>MARA Stock Short-Squeezes Higher as Bitcoin Takes $45,000</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMARA Stock Short-Squeezes Higher as Bitcoin Takes $45,000\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-02-09 11:32 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://investorplace.com/2024/02/mara-stock-short-squeezes-higher-as-bitcoin-takes-45000/><strong>InvestorPlace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Marathon stock is up 23% today in what may be a short-squeeze effort in progress.MARA has a notably high short interest, covering 22.36% of the float.While it’s possible investors are buying MARA as a...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2024/02/mara-stock-short-squeezes-higher-as-bitcoin-takes-45000/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MARA":"Marathon Digital Holdings Inc"},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2024/02/mara-stock-short-squeezes-higher-as-bitcoin-takes-45000/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1162050595","content_text":"Marathon stock is up 23% today in what may be a short-squeeze effort in progress.MARA has a notably high short interest, covering 22.36% of the float.While it’s possible investors are buying MARA as a result of Bitcoin’s (BTC-USD) recent strength, it remains unclear.There may be a Marathon (NASDAQ:MARA) stock short-squeeze in the making today as the crypto mining company surges as Bitcoin (BTC-USD) inches past the all-important $45,000 psychological barrier.What’s up with MARA stock lately?Well, MARA is up a surprise 23% today, likely benefiting from the rise of the price of the primary commodity it mines: Bitcoin. Indeed, BTC is up 5% over the past five trading days, recently even crossing the $45,000 per coin threshold.While the stock is likely receiving a boost from Bitcoin’s recent climb, it’s likely not what’s behind today’s jump, at least not entirely. According to data from the financial data site Fintel, MARA stock has a notably high short interest.MARA has a 22.36% short interest, far higher than most normal securities. This suggests that the stock’s recent surge may be the result of an ongoing short squeeze.Is There a MARA Stock Short-Squeeze in the Making?A short squeeze entails an organized effort to raise the price of a security as part of a plan to force those who hold short shares of said security to sell their holdings, thus pushing the stock up even more. As stock prices rise, those with short positions on the security are “squeezed” into selling as a way to avoid sometimes substantial losses.Short squeezes have become something of a mainstay among Reddit investors, with companies like Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) and GameStop (NASDAQ:GME) experiencing historic rallies off the back of investor manipulation. The latter, in particular, saw the video game retailer climb to an all-time high of $500 per share, from just $17, purely from the effort of thousands of r/WallStreetBets investors.While it’s difficult to tell if today’s jump falls into short-squeeze territory, MARA’s high short interest certainly strengthens the case.After today’s gains, MARA stock is still down more than 8% year-to-date, though the company is up 209% in the last 12 months.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":336,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":364766764265472,"gmtCreate":1730064625070,"gmtModify":1730078773009,"author":{"id":"4105081372269870","authorId":"4105081372269870","name":"Imthiyas","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/713b089fffd0a4f627af530e8f4039ee","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4105081372269870","authorIdStr":"4105081372269870"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"This writer is negative on Tesla, readers just scroll down the rubbish , and load up on Tesla.","listText":"This writer is negative on Tesla, readers just scroll down the rubbish , and load up on Tesla.","text":"This writer is negative on Tesla, readers just scroll down the rubbish , and load up on Tesla.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/364766764265472","repostId":"2478918073","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2478918073","pubTimestamp":1729923068,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2478918073?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-10-26 14:11","market":"nz","language":"en","title":"Tesla: Don't Be Fooled By The Market","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2478918073","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Tesla, Inc.'s 20% post-earnings surge has recovered most losses incurred after its underwhelming Robotaxi event.Tesla's solid Q3 earnings release supports the thesis that the worst is likely behind th","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul><li><p>Tesla, Inc.&#39;s 20% post-earnings surge has recovered most losses incurred after its underwhelming Robotaxi event.</p></li><li><p>Tesla&#39;s solid Q3 earnings release supports the thesis that the worst is likely behind the EV leader.</p></li><li><p>However, the market isn&#39;t dumb, given Tesla&#39;s sky-high valuation amid EV growth challenges.</p></li><li><p>Tesla&#39;s fast-growing energy storage business might not be sufficient to justify the optimism baked into its autonomous driving ambitions.</p></li><li><p>I argue why betting against TSLA isn&#39;t wise. However, going long on the stock seems too aggressive at the current levels.</p></li></ul><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9fb069981b6649ef9bb9d10bf4d75d46\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\"/><span></span></p><p></p><h2>Tesla: 20% Post-Earnings Surge Recovered Most Of Recent Losses</h2><p><strong>Tesla, Inc.</strong> (NASDAQ:TSLA) investors cheered the EV leader&#39;s Q3 earnings release as TSLA surged more than 20% on October 24. As a result, it has recovered most of the losses since its relatively underwhelming Robotaxi Day in early October. The significant volatility in the stock has likely stunned inexperienced TSLA holders as the market reassesses the Elon Musk-led company&#39;s EV growth profile.</p><p>Doubts about Tesla&#39;s launch of “more affordable” vehicles dominated the narrative at its Robotaxi event. Reports about human-controlled Optimus robots made the news in the financial media, as investors were concerned about the company&#39;s autonomous ambitions. Hence, questions from bearish investors about what has changed over the past two weeks that led to yesterday&#39;s surge are justified.</p><p>Management remains optimistic about scaling Tesla&#39;s autonomous aspirations over the next two years. However, I assess that the de-rating that followed its Robotaxi event in early October suggests the market is increasingly focused on the company&#39;s near-term growth prospects. Therefore, Tesla&#39;s ability to deliver a growth inflection in its financial performance could indicate the worst is likely over.</p><p>There were already green shoots of a recovery in early October when Tesla posted delivery growth in Q3, outperforming Wall Street&#39;s estimates. In my previous TSLA article, I urged investors to remain cautious, as Tesla could disappoint at its Robotaxi event. My thesis panned out as the market digested the overstated hype, although this week&#39;s spectacular post-earnings surge has reversed the initial decline.</p><h2>Tesla&#39;s Q3 Earnings Suggests The Worst Is Likely Behind Us</h2><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/15e0d0b30d4122dc26b561f82ba77f81\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\"/><span></span></p><p></p><p>Tesla&#39;s performance in Q3 underscores its pre-eminent position as the world&#39;s leading EV maker. As seen above, it recorded a 7.8% YoY increase in revenue in Q3, corroborating the recovery momentum it posted in Q2. Tesla has continued to manage its pricing levers to improve its competitiveness. The intense competition in the EV industry has hampered the company&#39;s ability to drive a more robust topline growth profile. The high-interest rate environment has continued to affect affordability, although the headwinds have likely peaked. Despite that, Tesla&#39;s ability to navigate these challenges and achieve a revenue growth inflection is a testament to its market leadership, scale, branding, and customer confidence.</p><p>Notably, Tesla notched solid results with its Cybertruck, becoming the “third best-selling EV in Q3 in the US.” Therefore, the market is likely increasingly confident in its growth prospects through 2025, corroborating the EV leader&#39;s market dominance.</p><h2>Tesla&#39;s Scale Could Lift Its Margins Further</h2><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f94bc2cda755ff8959ee09c686fdef06\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\"/><span></span></p><p></p><p>Management indicates macroeconomic challenges in Q4 could hamper its robust automotive gross margin recovery. However, its ability to post a solid corporate gross margin of almost 20% demonstrates the sustainability of Tesla&#39;s scale.</p><p>In addition, Elon Musk telegraphed his confidence in achieving 20% to 30% in vehicle growth rates next year, justifying the recent optimism. As a result, Tesla&#39;s increasing scale should position the EV leader well into potential delivery estimates of above 2M for 2025.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4c78be624408fa981e86dbd2847d08c6\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"454\"/><span></span></p><p></p><p>Coupled with the continued growth in its energy generation and storage business, I assess that the market has turned more constructive with the recent proof points. As seen above, Tesla&#39;s energy business has continued to do well, posting a topline growth of more than 40% on a trailing twelve-month basis. Given its improved scale, its gross profitability has also been lifted markedly, reaching nearly 26% in Q3 (trailing twelve months basis).</p><p>As a result, Tesla has demonstrated its ability to chart a significant growth vector through its energy business, even as its EV growth has decelerated. Although its energy business remains nascent (relative to its automotive business), it&#39;s expected to play an increasingly critical role moving ahead.</p><p>Solar energy capacity has surged to new highs, gaining significant influence in the renewable energy industry. Hence, I assess that cautious or bearish investors (including myself) have likely understated Tesla&#39;s capabilities to expand its growth drivers, notwithstanding the slowdown in its core EV business.</p><h2>TSLA Stock: But, Hasn&#39;t The Market Priced Them In?</h2><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/119454cad8eb328c901c728cd7c0ff71\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"615\" tg-height=\"318\"/><span></span></p><p></p><p>Despite that, TSLA&#39;s “F” valuation grade corroborates my cautious thesis that the market has likely overstated its relatively tepid “C-” growth grade. In other words, it&#39;s increasingly challenging for TSLA investors to justify its growth premium based on its fast-growing energy storage business. Accordingly, it hasn&#39;t been able to mitigate the slowdown in its main EV business.</p><p>Tesla has committed to driving near- and medium-term growth through its Robotaxi business and autonomous driving software. However, these optionalities are still mired in significant uncertainties. Although management telegraphed its confidence in the volume production for Cybercab in 2026, investors must be cautious in potentially overstating them.</p><p>Regulatory hurdles, deployment challenges, and capacity constraints could hamper management&#39;s optimism. In addition, the actualization of Tesla&#39;s autonomous driving ambitions isn&#39;t expected to be close to fruition yet. Hence, there seems to be too much hype baked into TSLA&#39;s arguably unjustified valuation metrics at the current levels.</p><h2>Is TSLA Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold?</h2><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/521b6c84d7a5a04ecba3f472fc901cd5\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"394\"/><span></span></p><p></p><p>TSLA&#39;s forward adjusted EPS multiple of 105x is substantially above its consumer discretionary (XLY) sector median of 17x. It&#39;s also markedly above its automotive peers&#39; median of 3.6x (according to S&amp;P Cap IQ data). Furthermore, investors should consider the relative underperformance of its solar energy peers listed in the Invesco Solar ETF (TAN), as it fell to new recent lows in October 2024. Therefore, anticipating a significant valuation re-rating based on its core EV or solar energy business could be increasingly challenging unless Tesla makes a substantial breakthrough in actualizing its autonomous ambitions.</p><p>Despite that, its price action highlights the robustness of its dip-buying sentiments. TSLA&#39;s “A” momentum grade has been upgraded from “D” over the past six months, corroborating the stock&#39;s markedly improved buying momentum. Therefore, bearish investors must be cautious about trying to bet against the market, as these bets could be eviscerated, given the potentially high volatility and robustness in TSLA&#39;s underlying momentum.</p><p>TSLA&#39;s price action has inched closer to a critical resistance zone under the $270 level. That level has resisted buying advances since December 2023, which justifies increased caution. Therefore, I assess that the market seems to have baked in steep optimism on Tesla, Inc.&#39;s ability to actualize and monetize its autonomous driving and Robotaxi ambitions over the coming years.</p><p>Hence, I urge investors to remain cautious about the stock, as profit-taking could also set in as it inches closer to the $270 zone.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla: Don't Be Fooled By The Market</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla: Don't Be Fooled By The Market\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-10-26 14:11 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4729587-tesla-dont-be-fooled-by-the-market><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Tesla, Inc.'s 20% post-earnings surge has recovered most losses incurred after its underwhelming Robotaxi event.Tesla's solid Q3 earnings release supports the thesis that the worst is likely behind ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4729587-tesla-dont-be-fooled-by-the-market\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SG9999015952.SGD":"LIONGLOBAL DISRUPTIVE INNOVATION \"I\" (SGD) ACC","LU1429558221.USD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity RA USD","LU2357305700.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence ET H2-SGD","LU1861559042.SGD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B SGD","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元","LU1435385759.SGD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity RA SGD-H","LU2213496289.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","LU1551013342.USD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS USD","LU0082616367.USD":"摩根大通美国科技A（dist）","BK4527":"明星科技股","LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","LU0719512351.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Technology A (acc) SGD","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","LU0964807845.USD":"ALLIANZ INCOME & GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","BK4588":"碎股","LU2249611893.SGD":"BNP PARIBAS ENERGY TRANSITION \"CRH\" (SGD) ACC","LU1914381329.SGD":"Allianz Best Styles Global Equity Cl ET Acc H2-SGD","LU0234572021.USD":"高盛美国核心股票组合Acc","TSLA":"特斯拉","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","LU2063271972.USD":"富兰克林创新领域基金","LU2756315664.SGD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMI\" (SGDHDG) INC","SG9999015945.SGD":"LionGlobal Disruptive Innovation Fund A SGD","BK4581":"高盛持仓","LU0823414478.USD":"法巴经典能源转换基金","SG9999015986.USD":"LIONGLOBAL DISRUPTIVE INNOVATION \"I\" (USD) ACC","BK4099":"汽车制造商","LU1145028129.USD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AQ\" (USD) INC","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","BK4511":"特斯拉概念","LU2023250330.USD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMG\" (USD) INC","LU0689472784.USD":"安联收益及增长基金Cl AM AT Acc","LU2326559502.SGD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity P/A SGD-H","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","LU1720051017.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence AT Acc H2-SGD","LU1852331112.SGD":"Blackrock World Technology Fund A2 SGD-H","LU0198837287.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - USA GROWTH \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU0316494557.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL FUNDAMENTAL STRATEGIES \"A\" ACC","LU1861215975.USD":"贝莱德新一代科技基金 A2","LU0820561818.USD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金Cl AM DIS","LU1861220033.SGD":"Blackrock Next Generation Technology A2 SGD-H","LU2602419157.SGD":"HSBC ISLAMIC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"AC\" (SGD) ACC","BK4592":"伊斯兰概念","LU1551013425.SGD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS H2-SGD","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","LU0348723411.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL HI-TECH GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","LU1720051108.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4729587-tesla-dont-be-fooled-by-the-market","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2478918073","content_text":"Tesla, Inc.'s 20% post-earnings surge has recovered most losses incurred after its underwhelming Robotaxi event.Tesla's solid Q3 earnings release supports the thesis that the worst is likely behind the EV leader.However, the market isn't dumb, given Tesla's sky-high valuation amid EV growth challenges.Tesla's fast-growing energy storage business might not be sufficient to justify the optimism baked into its autonomous driving ambitions.I argue why betting against TSLA isn't wise. However, going long on the stock seems too aggressive at the current levels.Tesla: 20% Post-Earnings Surge Recovered Most Of Recent LossesTesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) investors cheered the EV leader's Q3 earnings release as TSLA surged more than 20% on October 24. As a result, it has recovered most of the losses since its relatively underwhelming Robotaxi Day in early October. The significant volatility in the stock has likely stunned inexperienced TSLA holders as the market reassesses the Elon Musk-led company's EV growth profile.Doubts about Tesla's launch of “more affordable” vehicles dominated the narrative at its Robotaxi event. Reports about human-controlled Optimus robots made the news in the financial media, as investors were concerned about the company's autonomous ambitions. Hence, questions from bearish investors about what has changed over the past two weeks that led to yesterday's surge are justified.Management remains optimistic about scaling Tesla's autonomous aspirations over the next two years. However, I assess that the de-rating that followed its Robotaxi event in early October suggests the market is increasingly focused on the company's near-term growth prospects. Therefore, Tesla's ability to deliver a growth inflection in its financial performance could indicate the worst is likely over.There were already green shoots of a recovery in early October when Tesla posted delivery growth in Q3, outperforming Wall Street's estimates. In my previous TSLA article, I urged investors to remain cautious, as Tesla could disappoint at its Robotaxi event. My thesis panned out as the market digested the overstated hype, although this week's spectacular post-earnings surge has reversed the initial decline.Tesla's Q3 Earnings Suggests The Worst Is Likely Behind UsTesla's performance in Q3 underscores its pre-eminent position as the world's leading EV maker. As seen above, it recorded a 7.8% YoY increase in revenue in Q3, corroborating the recovery momentum it posted in Q2. Tesla has continued to manage its pricing levers to improve its competitiveness. The intense competition in the EV industry has hampered the company's ability to drive a more robust topline growth profile. The high-interest rate environment has continued to affect affordability, although the headwinds have likely peaked. Despite that, Tesla's ability to navigate these challenges and achieve a revenue growth inflection is a testament to its market leadership, scale, branding, and customer confidence.Notably, Tesla notched solid results with its Cybertruck, becoming the “third best-selling EV in Q3 in the US.” Therefore, the market is likely increasingly confident in its growth prospects through 2025, corroborating the EV leader's market dominance.Tesla's Scale Could Lift Its Margins FurtherManagement indicates macroeconomic challenges in Q4 could hamper its robust automotive gross margin recovery. However, its ability to post a solid corporate gross margin of almost 20% demonstrates the sustainability of Tesla's scale.In addition, Elon Musk telegraphed his confidence in achieving 20% to 30% in vehicle growth rates next year, justifying the recent optimism. As a result, Tesla's increasing scale should position the EV leader well into potential delivery estimates of above 2M for 2025.Coupled with the continued growth in its energy generation and storage business, I assess that the market has turned more constructive with the recent proof points. As seen above, Tesla's energy business has continued to do well, posting a topline growth of more than 40% on a trailing twelve-month basis. Given its improved scale, its gross profitability has also been lifted markedly, reaching nearly 26% in Q3 (trailing twelve months basis).As a result, Tesla has demonstrated its ability to chart a significant growth vector through its energy business, even as its EV growth has decelerated. Although its energy business remains nascent (relative to its automotive business), it's expected to play an increasingly critical role moving ahead.Solar energy capacity has surged to new highs, gaining significant influence in the renewable energy industry. Hence, I assess that cautious or bearish investors (including myself) have likely understated Tesla's capabilities to expand its growth drivers, notwithstanding the slowdown in its core EV business.TSLA Stock: But, Hasn't The Market Priced Them In?Despite that, TSLA's “F” valuation grade corroborates my cautious thesis that the market has likely overstated its relatively tepid “C-” growth grade. In other words, it's increasingly challenging for TSLA investors to justify its growth premium based on its fast-growing energy storage business. Accordingly, it hasn't been able to mitigate the slowdown in its main EV business.Tesla has committed to driving near- and medium-term growth through its Robotaxi business and autonomous driving software. However, these optionalities are still mired in significant uncertainties. Although management telegraphed its confidence in the volume production for Cybercab in 2026, investors must be cautious in potentially overstating them.Regulatory hurdles, deployment challenges, and capacity constraints could hamper management's optimism. In addition, the actualization of Tesla's autonomous driving ambitions isn't expected to be close to fruition yet. Hence, there seems to be too much hype baked into TSLA's arguably unjustified valuation metrics at the current levels.Is TSLA Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold?TSLA's forward adjusted EPS multiple of 105x is substantially above its consumer discretionary (XLY) sector median of 17x. It's also markedly above its automotive peers' median of 3.6x (according to S&P Cap IQ data). Furthermore, investors should consider the relative underperformance of its solar energy peers listed in the Invesco Solar ETF (TAN), as it fell to new recent lows in October 2024. Therefore, anticipating a significant valuation re-rating based on its core EV or solar energy business could be increasingly challenging unless Tesla makes a substantial breakthrough in actualizing its autonomous ambitions.Despite that, its price action highlights the robustness of its dip-buying sentiments. TSLA's “A” momentum grade has been upgraded from “D” over the past six months, corroborating the stock's markedly improved buying momentum. Therefore, bearish investors must be cautious about trying to bet against the market, as these bets could be eviscerated, given the potentially high volatility and robustness in TSLA's underlying momentum.TSLA's price action has inched closer to a critical resistance zone under the $270 level. That level has resisted buying advances since December 2023, which justifies increased caution. Therefore, I assess that the market seems to have baked in steep optimism on Tesla, Inc.'s ability to actualize and monetize its autonomous driving and Robotaxi ambitions over the coming years.Hence, I urge investors to remain cautious about the stock, as profit-taking could also set in as it inches closer to the $270 zone.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":14,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":363856259665984,"gmtCreate":1729842334055,"gmtModify":1729843614979,"author":{"id":"4105081372269870","authorId":"4105081372269870","name":"Imthiyas","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/713b089fffd0a4f627af530e8f4039ee","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4105081372269870","authorIdStr":"4105081372269870"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"You are misguiding the buisness and Elon musk hate the short sellers he will wipe out all short sellers.","listText":"You are misguiding the buisness and Elon musk hate the short sellers he will wipe out all short sellers.","text":"You are misguiding the buisness and Elon musk hate the short sellers he will wipe out all short sellers.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/363856259665984","repostId":"2478675257","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2478675257","pubTimestamp":1729840530,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2478675257?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-10-25 15:15","market":"nz","language":"en","title":"Tesla Faces Major Risks In The Future","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2478675257","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Tesla faces growing risks due to Elon Musk's political alignment, impacting its primary markets and consumer perception negatively.Political associations influence EV ownership, with Democrats favorin","content":"<html><body><ul><li>Tesla faces growing risks due to Elon Musk's political alignment, impacting its primary markets and consumer perception negatively.</li><li>Political associations influence EV ownership, with Democrats favoring EVs more than Republicans, potentially affecting the Company's market.</li><li>Increased competition and declining consumer interest have reduced TSLA's market share and consideration score, threatening revenue.</li><li>Class action lawsuits over Tesla's FSD promises add financial risks, highlighting the company's overvaluation and potential revenue losses.</li></ul><p><figure><picture><img fetchpriority=\"high\" height=\"1002px\" sizes=\"(max-width: 768px) calc(100vw - 36px), (max-width: 1024px) calc(100vw - 132px), (max-width: 1200px) calc(66.6vw - 72px), 600px\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/497215523/image_497215523.jpg?io=getty-c-w750\" srcset=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/497215523/image_497215523.jpg?io=getty-c-w1536 1536w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/497215523/image_497215523.jpg?io=getty-c-w1280 1280w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/497215523/image_497215523.jpg?io=getty-c-w1080 1080w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/497215523/image_497215523.jpg?io=getty-c-w750 750w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/497215523/image_497215523.jpg?io=getty-c-w640 640w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/497215523/image_497215523.jpg?io=getty-c-w480 480w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/497215523/image_497215523.jpg?io=getty-c-w320 320w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/497215523/image_497215523.jpg?io=getty-c-w240 240w\" width=\"1536px\"/></picture><figcaption><p>wellesenterprises</p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>Tesla (<span>NASDAQ:TSLA</span>) is one of the largest EV companies in the world, with a market capitalization of more than $700 billion. We recently discussed how the company's fair value is less than a third of its market<span> capitalization</span><span>. However, as we'll see throughout this article, the company faces risks from a number of avenues including slowing growth, weak FSD, and the association with its founder, Elon Musk, who's vocally aligned himself with the Republican Party.</span></p> <p>That could have a substantial impact on the company's future growth.</p> <h2>Tesla Earnings</h2> <p>Tesla saw its share price go up after hours, by double-digits, after announcing respectably strong earnings in a market expecting doom.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/10/23/34591885-17297379300300016.png\"/></span><figcaption><p>Tesla Investor Presentation</p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>The company also predicted 20% vehicle growth next year; however, we'd like to highlight that this is from the company seeing ~6% YoY growth, and predicted 50% annualized growth last year. We'll believe it when we see it, but we're not optimistic. The company's total revenues increased only 8% YoY supported by services and energy generation and storage.</p> <p>Tesla has continued to hype up autonomy, but as we discussed here, the company is well behind. The company's profit went up, and we will concede that FCF for the company was strong, not surprising given margins in energy generation and storage. However YoY the company's growth in cash and cash equivalents was ~$7.5 billion, not enough to justify its valuation.</p> <p>Given the slowdown in automotive revenues which indicates a shift towards lower margin vehicles, the company's after-hours strength represents a better selling opportunity to us.</p> <h2>EVs versus Political Association</h2> <p>Given the different stances the parties have taken on climate change, there's a strong political association to EV ownership.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/10/20/saupload_ev-politics-slide-deck.webp\"/></picture><figcaption><p>EV Politics</p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>Tesla itself is known for its largest market being California, where it was founded, the quintessential \"blue\" state. The above chart highlights how by major political party views on EVs vary dramatically. Among Republicans, almost 50% have a mostly unfavorable view on electric-only car brands while only 10% have a mostly favorable view.</p> <p>Among Democrats, the mostly favorable percentage is almost 40% while the mostly unfavorable is only 20%.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/10/20/saupload_Visualizing-Electric-Vehicle-Adoption-Across-U.S.-States_Website_07232024.jpg\"/></picture><figcaption><p>EV Adoption</p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>This is also partially visible in EV ownership registrations per 100K by state. While there are some associations (i.e. blue states tend to have more concentrated / higher populations that could lend themselves well to EV ownership) it's visible that EV ownership varies partially by party association of the step.</p> <p>For example, Colorado has 1.4% EV adoption, while Wyoming next door has &lt;0.2%. Wisconsin has 0.4% while Iowa has 0.25%. This variance helps reaffirm what we stated above, through polls, which is that Democrats are dramatically more likely to own an electric vehicle than Republicans.</p> <h2>Elon Musk versus Target Buyers</h2> <p>In our view, that association presents a substantial risk given that Elon Musk has aligned himself with the Republican Party's candidate, Donald Trump.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/10/20/34591885-17294019703896348.png\"/></span><figcaption><p>Political Alignment</p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>The impact of this alignment can be clearly seen in polls asking people of their opinion on Elon Musk. Democrats have an approval rating of 6% which has plummeted from more than 20% while at the same time approval about Republicans has more than doubled from 30% a few years ago to more than 60%.</p> <p>Now you might say you don't care about political opinions on the CEOs of the companies you shop at. That's valid. However, we'd argue that Elon Musk as a persona is much more associated with Tesla, with 83% of Americans doing so. That means that a negative view of Elon Musk could have an impact on Tesla's primary markets.</p> <p>The net result of this all, regardless of how reasonable anyone thinks it is, is that there's a substantial risk to Tesla.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/10/20/saupload_9776219d09442eb3c98a8fd34966d11e.jpg\"/></picture><figcaption><p>Bloomberg Tesla Owners</p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>According to Bloomberg's 2023 Tesla Owners survey disapproval is a top reason why Tesla owners are walking away, with more than 20% saying yes. Now it's tough to quantify exact risks. However, in the same survey above, 13% of Model 3 owners were planning to leave at all, which means that ~3% of Tesla owners today are considering walking away.</p> <p>However, in Tesla's world, at 2 million vehicles per year, that's 60K vehicles less of Model 3 demand, which is billions of dollars of lost revenue. More importantly, this is coming at the same time as competition is increasing, and EV sales are slowing.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/10/20/saupload_image-placeholder-title.jpg\"/></picture><figcaption><p>Cox Automotive</p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>Tesla has continued to face additional competition which has pushed down its market share to below 50%. From a global market share perspective, the company is still struggling to compete for its crown, with cheap EVs in China and Europe putting substantial pressure on the company. The company competes with BYD for the crown of the top global EV maker.</p> <p>Overall new competition has pushed down Tesla's consideration score:</p> <blockquote><p>Survey data reported by <em>Reuters</em> found that Tesla's \"consideration score\" - a metric used by Caliber to track consumer interest in brands, based on how they respond to the prompt \"I would buy, or continue buying, products and services from Tesla, if given the chance\" - has fallen to 31 percent from its 70 percent high in November 2021, tumbling by 8 percent alone this January. Caliber's consideration scores for rival EV-producing manufacturers Audi, BMW, and Mercedes, meanwhile, increased slightly during the same period, reaching between 44-47 percent.</p></blockquote> <p>In Europe, one of the largest retail chains, Rossmann, has halted plans to purchase EVs as a result of Donald Trump directly. This is a quantifiable risk that could cost the company billions at a time when sales are already flat lining.</p> <h2>Tesla FSD Hardware Class Action</h2> <p>At the same time, after Tesla's lackluster self-driving event, we expect class actions over the company's FSD to ramp up. That's been a major source of the company's profits recently, and the company is already facing some class action lawsuits.</p> <p>It's well known that Tesla FSD has been promised as being around the corner for almost a decade now. Tesla owners with the \"HW3\" package spent more than $10K on this package with the promise of full-self driving. Tesla has continued to make this promise despite releasing \"HW4\" and not offering an upgrade to \"HW3\" owners, saying it would be too expensive.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/10/20/saupload_Screenshot-2024-10-14-at-4.12.48_E2_80_AFPM.jpg\"/></picture><figcaption><p>Bloomberg Disengagement</p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>Tesla's miles to disengagement has barely doubled over the last several years. For perspective, Waymo is at roughly 100x that, and conventional wisdom is that there's much further to go. Think about how often your car would need to go before \"failure\" for you to buy a FSD car with no steering wheel or controls. Tesla is far, far away.</p> <p>Tesla appears to understand the risk with HW3, saying \"let's not get nuanced\" at the event asking the company to confirm, while updating the language on its website. Recent FSD releases indicate that Tesla is hitting the limits of what's possible with HW3, with recent releases coming out on HW4 first instead of HW3.</p> <p>More importantly, HW3 releases now use both computers, which makes it impossible to achieve Level 5 FSD given a requirement for redundant computers.</p> <h2>Thesis Risk</h2> <p>The largest risk to our thesis is that the company's newfound allegiances might change some of the statistics above and make a new group of people more open to EVs. That could help replace lost customers and support Tesla's sales and returns.</p> <h2>Conclusion</h2> <p>Tesla, as we discussed in our prior article, is already trading well above fair value. Now, with recent developments around the election along with the company's FSD event, we see risks increasing. That could potentially cost the company billions in revenue as it's struggling.</p> <p>This adds on to the company's liability with FSD, as the company has made promises that it's now seeing class action lawsuits with. These sales were a massive source of profits for the company and margins, so having to refund them could be massively expensive.</p> <div></div> <p>As a result, this helps to highlight how overvalued Tesla is and why it's a poor investment at this time. Let us know your thoughts in the comments below.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Faces Major Risks In The Future</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ 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class=\"title\">\nTesla Faces Major Risks In The Future\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-10-25 15:15 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4729442-tesla-stock-faces-major-risks-in-future-reiterate-sell><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Tesla faces growing risks due to Elon Musk's political alignment, impacting its primary markets and consumer perception negatively.Political associations influence EV ownership, with Democrats ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4729442-tesla-stock-faces-major-risks-in-future-reiterate-sell\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/497215523/image_497215523.jpg","relate_stocks":{"BK4555":"新能源车","LU2756315318.SGD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMG\" (SGDHDG) INC A","LU1720051108.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE \"AT\" (HKD) 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SGD-H","LU1861215975.USD":"贝莱德新一代科技基金 A2","BK4592":"伊斯兰概念","LU1861558580.USD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B","LU0820561818.USD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金Cl AM DIS","LU1861220033.SGD":"Blackrock Next Generation Technology A2 SGD-H","LU2602419157.SGD":"HSBC ISLAMIC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"AC\" (SGD) ACC","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4729442-tesla-stock-faces-major-risks-in-future-reiterate-sell","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2478675257","content_text":"Tesla faces growing risks due to Elon Musk's political alignment, impacting its primary markets and consumer perception negatively.Political associations influence EV ownership, with Democrats favoring EVs more than Republicans, potentially affecting the Company's market.Increased competition and declining consumer interest have reduced TSLA's market share and consideration score, threatening revenue.Class action lawsuits over Tesla's FSD promises add financial risks, highlighting the company's overvaluation and potential revenue losses.wellesenterprises Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) is one of the largest EV companies in the world, with a market capitalization of more than $700 billion. We recently discussed how the company's fair value is less than a third of its market capitalization. However, as we'll see throughout this article, the company faces risks from a number of avenues including slowing growth, weak FSD, and the association with its founder, Elon Musk, who's vocally aligned himself with the Republican Party. That could have a substantial impact on the company's future growth. Tesla Earnings Tesla saw its share price go up after hours, by double-digits, after announcing respectably strong earnings in a market expecting doom. Tesla Investor Presentation The company also predicted 20% vehicle growth next year; however, we'd like to highlight that this is from the company seeing ~6% YoY growth, and predicted 50% annualized growth last year. We'll believe it when we see it, but we're not optimistic. The company's total revenues increased only 8% YoY supported by services and energy generation and storage. Tesla has continued to hype up autonomy, but as we discussed here, the company is well behind. The company's profit went up, and we will concede that FCF for the company was strong, not surprising given margins in energy generation and storage. However YoY the company's growth in cash and cash equivalents was ~$7.5 billion, not enough to justify its valuation. Given the slowdown in automotive revenues which indicates a shift towards lower margin vehicles, the company's after-hours strength represents a better selling opportunity to us. EVs versus Political Association Given the different stances the parties have taken on climate change, there's a strong political association to EV ownership. EV Politics Tesla itself is known for its largest market being California, where it was founded, the quintessential \"blue\" state. The above chart highlights how by major political party views on EVs vary dramatically. Among Republicans, almost 50% have a mostly unfavorable view on electric-only car brands while only 10% have a mostly favorable view. Among Democrats, the mostly favorable percentage is almost 40% while the mostly unfavorable is only 20%. EV Adoption This is also partially visible in EV ownership registrations per 100K by state. While there are some associations (i.e. blue states tend to have more concentrated / higher populations that could lend themselves well to EV ownership) it's visible that EV ownership varies partially by party association of the step. For example, Colorado has 1.4% EV adoption, while Wyoming next door has <0.2%. Wisconsin has 0.4% while Iowa has 0.25%. This variance helps reaffirm what we stated above, through polls, which is that Democrats are dramatically more likely to own an electric vehicle than Republicans. Elon Musk versus Target Buyers In our view, that association presents a substantial risk given that Elon Musk has aligned himself with the Republican Party's candidate, Donald Trump. Political Alignment The impact of this alignment can be clearly seen in polls asking people of their opinion on Elon Musk. Democrats have an approval rating of 6% which has plummeted from more than 20% while at the same time approval about Republicans has more than doubled from 30% a few years ago to more than 60%. Now you might say you don't care about political opinions on the CEOs of the companies you shop at. That's valid. However, we'd argue that Elon Musk as a persona is much more associated with Tesla, with 83% of Americans doing so. That means that a negative view of Elon Musk could have an impact on Tesla's primary markets. The net result of this all, regardless of how reasonable anyone thinks it is, is that there's a substantial risk to Tesla. Bloomberg Tesla Owners According to Bloomberg's 2023 Tesla Owners survey disapproval is a top reason why Tesla owners are walking away, with more than 20% saying yes. Now it's tough to quantify exact risks. However, in the same survey above, 13% of Model 3 owners were planning to leave at all, which means that ~3% of Tesla owners today are considering walking away. However, in Tesla's world, at 2 million vehicles per year, that's 60K vehicles less of Model 3 demand, which is billions of dollars of lost revenue. More importantly, this is coming at the same time as competition is increasing, and EV sales are slowing. Cox Automotive Tesla has continued to face additional competition which has pushed down its market share to below 50%. From a global market share perspective, the company is still struggling to compete for its crown, with cheap EVs in China and Europe putting substantial pressure on the company. The company competes with BYD for the crown of the top global EV maker. Overall new competition has pushed down Tesla's consideration score: Survey data reported by Reuters found that Tesla's \"consideration score\" - a metric used by Caliber to track consumer interest in brands, based on how they respond to the prompt \"I would buy, or continue buying, products and services from Tesla, if given the chance\" - has fallen to 31 percent from its 70 percent high in November 2021, tumbling by 8 percent alone this January. Caliber's consideration scores for rival EV-producing manufacturers Audi, BMW, and Mercedes, meanwhile, increased slightly during the same period, reaching between 44-47 percent. In Europe, one of the largest retail chains, Rossmann, has halted plans to purchase EVs as a result of Donald Trump directly. This is a quantifiable risk that could cost the company billions at a time when sales are already flat lining. Tesla FSD Hardware Class Action At the same time, after Tesla's lackluster self-driving event, we expect class actions over the company's FSD to ramp up. That's been a major source of the company's profits recently, and the company is already facing some class action lawsuits. It's well known that Tesla FSD has been promised as being around the corner for almost a decade now. Tesla owners with the \"HW3\" package spent more than $10K on this package with the promise of full-self driving. Tesla has continued to make this promise despite releasing \"HW4\" and not offering an upgrade to \"HW3\" owners, saying it would be too expensive. Bloomberg Disengagement Tesla's miles to disengagement has barely doubled over the last several years. For perspective, Waymo is at roughly 100x that, and conventional wisdom is that there's much further to go. Think about how often your car would need to go before \"failure\" for you to buy a FSD car with no steering wheel or controls. Tesla is far, far away. Tesla appears to understand the risk with HW3, saying \"let's not get nuanced\" at the event asking the company to confirm, while updating the language on its website. Recent FSD releases indicate that Tesla is hitting the limits of what's possible with HW3, with recent releases coming out on HW4 first instead of HW3. More importantly, HW3 releases now use both computers, which makes it impossible to achieve Level 5 FSD given a requirement for redundant computers. Thesis Risk The largest risk to our thesis is that the company's newfound allegiances might change some of the statistics above and make a new group of people more open to EVs. That could help replace lost customers and support Tesla's sales and returns. Conclusion Tesla, as we discussed in our prior article, is already trading well above fair value. Now, with recent developments around the election along with the company's FSD event, we see risks increasing. That could potentially cost the company billions in revenue as it's struggling. This adds on to the company's liability with FSD, as the company has made promises that it's now seeing class action lawsuits with. These sales were a massive source of profits for the company and margins, so having to refund them could be massively expensive.  As a result, this helps to highlight how overvalued Tesla is and why it's a poor investment at this time. Let us know your thoughts in the comments below.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":363855863721992,"gmtCreate":1729842240420,"gmtModify":1729843536299,"author":{"id":"4105081372269870","authorId":"4105081372269870","name":"Imthiyas","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/713b089fffd0a4f627af530e8f4039ee","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4105081372269870","authorIdStr":"4105081372269870"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Bull shit your analysis every time, stop posting your views.","listText":"Bull shit your analysis every time, stop posting your views.","text":"Bull shit your analysis every time, stop posting your views.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/363855863721992","repostId":"2478675257","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2478675257","pubTimestamp":1729840530,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2478675257?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-10-25 15:15","market":"nz","language":"en","title":"Tesla Faces Major Risks In The Future","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2478675257","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Tesla faces growing risks due to Elon Musk's political alignment, impacting its primary markets and consumer perception negatively.Political associations influence EV ownership, with Democrats favorin","content":"<html><body><ul><li>Tesla faces growing risks due to Elon Musk's political alignment, impacting its primary markets and consumer perception negatively.</li><li>Political associations influence EV ownership, with Democrats favoring EVs more than Republicans, potentially affecting the Company's market.</li><li>Increased competition and declining consumer interest have reduced TSLA's market share and consideration score, threatening revenue.</li><li>Class action lawsuits over Tesla's FSD promises add financial risks, highlighting the company's overvaluation and potential revenue losses.</li></ul><p><figure><picture><img fetchpriority=\"high\" height=\"1002px\" sizes=\"(max-width: 768px) calc(100vw - 36px), (max-width: 1024px) calc(100vw - 132px), (max-width: 1200px) calc(66.6vw - 72px), 600px\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/497215523/image_497215523.jpg?io=getty-c-w750\" srcset=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/497215523/image_497215523.jpg?io=getty-c-w1536 1536w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/497215523/image_497215523.jpg?io=getty-c-w1280 1280w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/497215523/image_497215523.jpg?io=getty-c-w1080 1080w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/497215523/image_497215523.jpg?io=getty-c-w750 750w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/497215523/image_497215523.jpg?io=getty-c-w640 640w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/497215523/image_497215523.jpg?io=getty-c-w480 480w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/497215523/image_497215523.jpg?io=getty-c-w320 320w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/497215523/image_497215523.jpg?io=getty-c-w240 240w\" width=\"1536px\"/></picture><figcaption><p>wellesenterprises</p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>Tesla (<span>NASDAQ:TSLA</span>) is one of the largest EV companies in the world, with a market capitalization of more than $700 billion. We recently discussed how the company's fair value is less than a third of its market<span> capitalization</span><span>. However, as we'll see throughout this article, the company faces risks from a number of avenues including slowing growth, weak FSD, and the association with its founder, Elon Musk, who's vocally aligned himself with the Republican Party.</span></p> <p>That could have a substantial impact on the company's future growth.</p> <h2>Tesla Earnings</h2> <p>Tesla saw its share price go up after hours, by double-digits, after announcing respectably strong earnings in a market expecting doom.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/10/23/34591885-17297379300300016.png\"/></span><figcaption><p>Tesla Investor Presentation</p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>The company also predicted 20% vehicle growth next year; however, we'd like to highlight that this is from the company seeing ~6% YoY growth, and predicted 50% annualized growth last year. We'll believe it when we see it, but we're not optimistic. The company's total revenues increased only 8% YoY supported by services and energy generation and storage.</p> <p>Tesla has continued to hype up autonomy, but as we discussed here, the company is well behind. The company's profit went up, and we will concede that FCF for the company was strong, not surprising given margins in energy generation and storage. However YoY the company's growth in cash and cash equivalents was ~$7.5 billion, not enough to justify its valuation.</p> <p>Given the slowdown in automotive revenues which indicates a shift towards lower margin vehicles, the company's after-hours strength represents a better selling opportunity to us.</p> <h2>EVs versus Political Association</h2> <p>Given the different stances the parties have taken on climate change, there's a strong political association to EV ownership.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/10/20/saupload_ev-politics-slide-deck.webp\"/></picture><figcaption><p>EV Politics</p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>Tesla itself is known for its largest market being California, where it was founded, the quintessential \"blue\" state. The above chart highlights how by major political party views on EVs vary dramatically. Among Republicans, almost 50% have a mostly unfavorable view on electric-only car brands while only 10% have a mostly favorable view.</p> <p>Among Democrats, the mostly favorable percentage is almost 40% while the mostly unfavorable is only 20%.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/10/20/saupload_Visualizing-Electric-Vehicle-Adoption-Across-U.S.-States_Website_07232024.jpg\"/></picture><figcaption><p>EV Adoption</p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>This is also partially visible in EV ownership registrations per 100K by state. While there are some associations (i.e. blue states tend to have more concentrated / higher populations that could lend themselves well to EV ownership) it's visible that EV ownership varies partially by party association of the step.</p> <p>For example, Colorado has 1.4% EV adoption, while Wyoming next door has &lt;0.2%. Wisconsin has 0.4% while Iowa has 0.25%. This variance helps reaffirm what we stated above, through polls, which is that Democrats are dramatically more likely to own an electric vehicle than Republicans.</p> <h2>Elon Musk versus Target Buyers</h2> <p>In our view, that association presents a substantial risk given that Elon Musk has aligned himself with the Republican Party's candidate, Donald Trump.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/10/20/34591885-17294019703896348.png\"/></span><figcaption><p>Political Alignment</p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>The impact of this alignment can be clearly seen in polls asking people of their opinion on Elon Musk. Democrats have an approval rating of 6% which has plummeted from more than 20% while at the same time approval about Republicans has more than doubled from 30% a few years ago to more than 60%.</p> <p>Now you might say you don't care about political opinions on the CEOs of the companies you shop at. That's valid. However, we'd argue that Elon Musk as a persona is much more associated with Tesla, with 83% of Americans doing so. That means that a negative view of Elon Musk could have an impact on Tesla's primary markets.</p> <p>The net result of this all, regardless of how reasonable anyone thinks it is, is that there's a substantial risk to Tesla.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/10/20/saupload_9776219d09442eb3c98a8fd34966d11e.jpg\"/></picture><figcaption><p>Bloomberg Tesla Owners</p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>According to Bloomberg's 2023 Tesla Owners survey disapproval is a top reason why Tesla owners are walking away, with more than 20% saying yes. Now it's tough to quantify exact risks. However, in the same survey above, 13% of Model 3 owners were planning to leave at all, which means that ~3% of Tesla owners today are considering walking away.</p> <p>However, in Tesla's world, at 2 million vehicles per year, that's 60K vehicles less of Model 3 demand, which is billions of dollars of lost revenue. More importantly, this is coming at the same time as competition is increasing, and EV sales are slowing.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/10/20/saupload_image-placeholder-title.jpg\"/></picture><figcaption><p>Cox Automotive</p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>Tesla has continued to face additional competition which has pushed down its market share to below 50%. From a global market share perspective, the company is still struggling to compete for its crown, with cheap EVs in China and Europe putting substantial pressure on the company. The company competes with BYD for the crown of the top global EV maker.</p> <p>Overall new competition has pushed down Tesla's consideration score:</p> <blockquote><p>Survey data reported by <em>Reuters</em> found that Tesla's \"consideration score\" - a metric used by Caliber to track consumer interest in brands, based on how they respond to the prompt \"I would buy, or continue buying, products and services from Tesla, if given the chance\" - has fallen to 31 percent from its 70 percent high in November 2021, tumbling by 8 percent alone this January. Caliber's consideration scores for rival EV-producing manufacturers Audi, BMW, and Mercedes, meanwhile, increased slightly during the same period, reaching between 44-47 percent.</p></blockquote> <p>In Europe, one of the largest retail chains, Rossmann, has halted plans to purchase EVs as a result of Donald Trump directly. This is a quantifiable risk that could cost the company billions at a time when sales are already flat lining.</p> <h2>Tesla FSD Hardware Class Action</h2> <p>At the same time, after Tesla's lackluster self-driving event, we expect class actions over the company's FSD to ramp up. That's been a major source of the company's profits recently, and the company is already facing some class action lawsuits.</p> <p>It's well known that Tesla FSD has been promised as being around the corner for almost a decade now. Tesla owners with the \"HW3\" package spent more than $10K on this package with the promise of full-self driving. Tesla has continued to make this promise despite releasing \"HW4\" and not offering an upgrade to \"HW3\" owners, saying it would be too expensive.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/10/20/saupload_Screenshot-2024-10-14-at-4.12.48_E2_80_AFPM.jpg\"/></picture><figcaption><p>Bloomberg Disengagement</p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>Tesla's miles to disengagement has barely doubled over the last several years. For perspective, Waymo is at roughly 100x that, and conventional wisdom is that there's much further to go. Think about how often your car would need to go before \"failure\" for you to buy a FSD car with no steering wheel or controls. Tesla is far, far away.</p> <p>Tesla appears to understand the risk with HW3, saying \"let's not get nuanced\" at the event asking the company to confirm, while updating the language on its website. Recent FSD releases indicate that Tesla is hitting the limits of what's possible with HW3, with recent releases coming out on HW4 first instead of HW3.</p> <p>More importantly, HW3 releases now use both computers, which makes it impossible to achieve Level 5 FSD given a requirement for redundant computers.</p> <h2>Thesis Risk</h2> <p>The largest risk to our thesis is that the company's newfound allegiances might change some of the statistics above and make a new group of people more open to EVs. That could help replace lost customers and support Tesla's sales and returns.</p> <h2>Conclusion</h2> <p>Tesla, as we discussed in our prior article, is already trading well above fair value. Now, with recent developments around the election along with the company's FSD event, we see risks increasing. That could potentially cost the company billions in revenue as it's struggling.</p> <p>This adds on to the company's liability with FSD, as the company has made promises that it's now seeing class action lawsuits with. These sales were a massive source of profits for the company and margins, so having to refund them could be massively expensive.</p> <div></div> <p>As a result, this helps to highlight how overvalued Tesla is and why it's a poor investment at this time. Let us know your thoughts in the comments below.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Faces Major Risks In The Future</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ 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class=\"title\">\nTesla Faces Major Risks In The Future\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-10-25 15:15 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4729442-tesla-stock-faces-major-risks-in-future-reiterate-sell><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Tesla faces growing risks due to Elon Musk's political alignment, impacting its primary markets and consumer perception negatively.Political associations influence EV ownership, with Democrats ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4729442-tesla-stock-faces-major-risks-in-future-reiterate-sell\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/497215523/image_497215523.jpg","relate_stocks":{"BK4555":"新能源车","LU2756315318.SGD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMG\" (SGDHDG) INC A","LU1720051108.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE \"AT\" (HKD) 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SGD-H","LU1861215975.USD":"贝莱德新一代科技基金 A2","BK4592":"伊斯兰概念","LU1861558580.USD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B","LU0820561818.USD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金Cl AM DIS","LU1861220033.SGD":"Blackrock Next Generation Technology A2 SGD-H","LU2602419157.SGD":"HSBC ISLAMIC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"AC\" (SGD) ACC","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4729442-tesla-stock-faces-major-risks-in-future-reiterate-sell","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2478675257","content_text":"Tesla faces growing risks due to Elon Musk's political alignment, impacting its primary markets and consumer perception negatively.Political associations influence EV ownership, with Democrats favoring EVs more than Republicans, potentially affecting the Company's market.Increased competition and declining consumer interest have reduced TSLA's market share and consideration score, threatening revenue.Class action lawsuits over Tesla's FSD promises add financial risks, highlighting the company's overvaluation and potential revenue losses.wellesenterprises Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) is one of the largest EV companies in the world, with a market capitalization of more than $700 billion. We recently discussed how the company's fair value is less than a third of its market capitalization. However, as we'll see throughout this article, the company faces risks from a number of avenues including slowing growth, weak FSD, and the association with its founder, Elon Musk, who's vocally aligned himself with the Republican Party. That could have a substantial impact on the company's future growth. Tesla Earnings Tesla saw its share price go up after hours, by double-digits, after announcing respectably strong earnings in a market expecting doom. Tesla Investor Presentation The company also predicted 20% vehicle growth next year; however, we'd like to highlight that this is from the company seeing ~6% YoY growth, and predicted 50% annualized growth last year. We'll believe it when we see it, but we're not optimistic. The company's total revenues increased only 8% YoY supported by services and energy generation and storage. Tesla has continued to hype up autonomy, but as we discussed here, the company is well behind. The company's profit went up, and we will concede that FCF for the company was strong, not surprising given margins in energy generation and storage. However YoY the company's growth in cash and cash equivalents was ~$7.5 billion, not enough to justify its valuation. Given the slowdown in automotive revenues which indicates a shift towards lower margin vehicles, the company's after-hours strength represents a better selling opportunity to us. EVs versus Political Association Given the different stances the parties have taken on climate change, there's a strong political association to EV ownership. EV Politics Tesla itself is known for its largest market being California, where it was founded, the quintessential \"blue\" state. The above chart highlights how by major political party views on EVs vary dramatically. Among Republicans, almost 50% have a mostly unfavorable view on electric-only car brands while only 10% have a mostly favorable view. Among Democrats, the mostly favorable percentage is almost 40% while the mostly unfavorable is only 20%. EV Adoption This is also partially visible in EV ownership registrations per 100K by state. While there are some associations (i.e. blue states tend to have more concentrated / higher populations that could lend themselves well to EV ownership) it's visible that EV ownership varies partially by party association of the step. For example, Colorado has 1.4% EV adoption, while Wyoming next door has <0.2%. Wisconsin has 0.4% while Iowa has 0.25%. This variance helps reaffirm what we stated above, through polls, which is that Democrats are dramatically more likely to own an electric vehicle than Republicans. Elon Musk versus Target Buyers In our view, that association presents a substantial risk given that Elon Musk has aligned himself with the Republican Party's candidate, Donald Trump. Political Alignment The impact of this alignment can be clearly seen in polls asking people of their opinion on Elon Musk. Democrats have an approval rating of 6% which has plummeted from more than 20% while at the same time approval about Republicans has more than doubled from 30% a few years ago to more than 60%. Now you might say you don't care about political opinions on the CEOs of the companies you shop at. That's valid. However, we'd argue that Elon Musk as a persona is much more associated with Tesla, with 83% of Americans doing so. That means that a negative view of Elon Musk could have an impact on Tesla's primary markets. The net result of this all, regardless of how reasonable anyone thinks it is, is that there's a substantial risk to Tesla. Bloomberg Tesla Owners According to Bloomberg's 2023 Tesla Owners survey disapproval is a top reason why Tesla owners are walking away, with more than 20% saying yes. Now it's tough to quantify exact risks. However, in the same survey above, 13% of Model 3 owners were planning to leave at all, which means that ~3% of Tesla owners today are considering walking away. However, in Tesla's world, at 2 million vehicles per year, that's 60K vehicles less of Model 3 demand, which is billions of dollars of lost revenue. More importantly, this is coming at the same time as competition is increasing, and EV sales are slowing. Cox Automotive Tesla has continued to face additional competition which has pushed down its market share to below 50%. From a global market share perspective, the company is still struggling to compete for its crown, with cheap EVs in China and Europe putting substantial pressure on the company. The company competes with BYD for the crown of the top global EV maker. Overall new competition has pushed down Tesla's consideration score: Survey data reported by Reuters found that Tesla's \"consideration score\" - a metric used by Caliber to track consumer interest in brands, based on how they respond to the prompt \"I would buy, or continue buying, products and services from Tesla, if given the chance\" - has fallen to 31 percent from its 70 percent high in November 2021, tumbling by 8 percent alone this January. Caliber's consideration scores for rival EV-producing manufacturers Audi, BMW, and Mercedes, meanwhile, increased slightly during the same period, reaching between 44-47 percent. In Europe, one of the largest retail chains, Rossmann, has halted plans to purchase EVs as a result of Donald Trump directly. This is a quantifiable risk that could cost the company billions at a time when sales are already flat lining. Tesla FSD Hardware Class Action At the same time, after Tesla's lackluster self-driving event, we expect class actions over the company's FSD to ramp up. That's been a major source of the company's profits recently, and the company is already facing some class action lawsuits. It's well known that Tesla FSD has been promised as being around the corner for almost a decade now. Tesla owners with the \"HW3\" package spent more than $10K on this package with the promise of full-self driving. Tesla has continued to make this promise despite releasing \"HW4\" and not offering an upgrade to \"HW3\" owners, saying it would be too expensive. Bloomberg Disengagement Tesla's miles to disengagement has barely doubled over the last several years. For perspective, Waymo is at roughly 100x that, and conventional wisdom is that there's much further to go. Think about how often your car would need to go before \"failure\" for you to buy a FSD car with no steering wheel or controls. Tesla is far, far away. Tesla appears to understand the risk with HW3, saying \"let's not get nuanced\" at the event asking the company to confirm, while updating the language on its website. Recent FSD releases indicate that Tesla is hitting the limits of what's possible with HW3, with recent releases coming out on HW4 first instead of HW3. More importantly, HW3 releases now use both computers, which makes it impossible to achieve Level 5 FSD given a requirement for redundant computers. Thesis Risk The largest risk to our thesis is that the company's newfound allegiances might change some of the statistics above and make a new group of people more open to EVs. That could help replace lost customers and support Tesla's sales and returns. Conclusion Tesla, as we discussed in our prior article, is already trading well above fair value. Now, with recent developments around the election along with the company's FSD event, we see risks increasing. That could potentially cost the company billions in revenue as it's struggling. This adds on to the company's liability with FSD, as the company has made promises that it's now seeing class action lawsuits with. These sales were a massive source of profits for the company and margins, so having to refund them could be massively expensive.  As a result, this helps to highlight how overvalued Tesla is and why it's a poor investment at this time. Let us know your thoughts in the comments below.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":244572443947104,"gmtCreate":1700734174516,"gmtModify":1700735197325,"author":{"id":"4105081372269870","authorId":"4105081372269870","name":"Imthiyas","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/713b089fffd0a4f627af530e8f4039ee","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4105081372269870","authorIdStr":"4105081372269870"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Recession is not going to come, dare&nbsp; To accumulate high percentage return stocks,,","listText":"Recession is not going to come, dare&nbsp; To accumulate high percentage return stocks,,","text":"Recession is not going to come, dare To accumulate high percentage return stocks,,","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/244572443947104","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":163,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}