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2023-08-30
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Tesla's Stock Rises the Most in Five Months
Richly Blessed
2023-03-01
$VALLIANZ HOLDINGS LTD(WPC.SI)$
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Nvidia shares ended at a record Tuesday.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla's Stock Rises the Most in Five Months</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla's Stock Rises the Most in Five Months\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2023-08-30 07:34</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Shares of Tesla Inc. on Tuesday ended at their highest in nearly three weeks and notched their largest one-day percentage increase since March 21, when the shares rose 7.82%. </p><p>The EV maker’s stock still holds to a 3% decline so far in August, compared with a 2% retreat for the S&P 500 index in the month to date.</p><p>Earlier Tuesday, Oppenheimer analysts said that Tesla is launching a $300 million AI computing cluster, employing thousands of Nvidia Inc.’s GPUs. Nvidia shares ended at a record Tuesday.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"IE0034235188.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL FOCUS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0820561818.USD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金Cl AM DIS","LU1861558580.USD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","LU1551013425.SGD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS H2-SGD","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","LU0127658192.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4549":"软银资本持仓","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","LU0256863811.USD":"ALLIANZ US EQUITY \"A\" INC","BK4511":"特斯拉概念","TSLA":"特斯拉","LU0943347566.SGD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金AM H2-SGD","LU2357305700.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence ET H2-SGD","LU1861559042.SGD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B SGD","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","LU1839511570.USD":"WELLS FARGO GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU1429558221.USD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity RA USD","IE00BJJMRX11.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD","BK4567":"ESG概念","IE0004445239.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON US FORTY \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU1435385759.SGD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity RA SGD-H","TSLL":"Direxion Daily TSLA Bull 2X Shares","LU0079474960.USD":"联博美国增长基金A","LU1551013342.USD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS USD","GB00BDT5M118.USD":"天利环球扩展Alpha基金A Acc","LU0889565833.HKD":"FRANKLIN TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1242518857.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - ASIA ABSOLUTE ALPHA \"I\" (USD) ACC","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","LU0353189680.USD":"富国美国全盘成长基金Cl A Acc","LU0642271901.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Global Technology Leaders A2 SGD-H","LU1280957306.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) US CONTRARIAN CORE EQUITIES \"AUP\" (USD) INC","IE00BJJMRY28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4099":"汽车制造商","LU2249611893.SGD":"BNP PARIBAS ENERGY TRANSITION \"CRH\" (SGD) ACC","LU0820561909.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AM\" (HKD) INC","LU0109392836.USD":"富兰克林科技股A","IE0004445015.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU1316542783.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Global Technology Leaders A2 SGD","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","LU2087621335.USD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2326559502.SGD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity P/A SGD-H","LU0689472784.USD":"安联收益及增长基金Cl AM AT Acc","LU1720051017.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence AT Acc H2-SGD","BK4555":"新能源车"},"source_url":"https://dowjonesnews.com/newdjn/logon.aspx?AL=N","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2363541395","content_text":"Shares of Tesla Inc. on Tuesday ended at their highest in nearly three weeks and notched their largest one-day percentage increase since March 21, when the shares rose 7.82%. The EV maker’s stock still holds to a 3% decline so far in August, compared with a 2% retreat for the S&P 500 index in the month to date.Earlier Tuesday, Oppenheimer analysts said that Tesla is launching a $300 million AI computing cluster, employing thousands of Nvidia Inc.’s GPUs. Nvidia shares ended at a record Tuesday.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":144,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9940984280,"gmtCreate":1677649686941,"gmtModify":1677650184800,"author":{"id":"4106272640661640","authorId":"4106272640661640","name":"Richly Blessed","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4106272640661640","authorIdStr":"4106272640661640"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/WPC.SI\">$VALLIANZ HOLDINGS LTD(WPC.SI)$ </a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/WPC.SI\">$VALLIANZ HOLDINGS LTD(WPC.SI)$ </a>","text":"$VALLIANZ HOLDINGS LTD(WPC.SI)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9940984280","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":154,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":271164604432648,"gmtCreate":1707240090560,"gmtModify":1707240116130,"author":{"id":"4106272640661640","authorId":"4106272640661640","name":"Richly Blessed","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4106272640661640","authorIdStr":"4106272640661640"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Share your opinion about this news…","listText":"Share your opinion about this news…","text":"Share your opinion about this news…","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/271164604432648","repostId":"2409109697","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2409109697","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1707127465,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2409109697?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-02-05 18:04","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Coming Reckoning Of Bitcoin Miners: A Sector Analysis","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2409109697","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"The implications and impact of \"slow and steady\" are vast and wide.It could cause the Bitcoin mining sector to consolidate and favor a subset of miners in the short run, while risk breaking Bitcoin's ","content":"<html><body><ul><li>The implications and impact of \"slow and steady\" are vast and wide.</li><li>It could cause the Bitcoin mining sector to consolidate and favor a subset of miners in the short run, while risk breaking Bitcoin's PoW protocol in the long run.</li><li>These observations shape our expectations, HODL policy, and approach to Bitcoin mining sector.</li><li>As big as the Bitcoin ecosystem may be, we do not expect the Fed to bail it in a crisis.</li></ul><figure><picture> <img loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://media.gettyimages.com/id/514221626/photo/zombie-apocalypse-zhe-end.jpg?b=1&s=170667a&w=0&k=20&c=RBChBNEYL4Ky5oTJL1w3lzFdCvpTtg8aIv36VxOiVlg=\"/> </picture><figcaption><p>Bitcoin miners with financially unsustainable operations are like zombies waiting to bite the dust.</p> <p>gremlin/E+ via Getty Images</p></figcaption></figure><h2>Introduction</h2> <p>In our previous Bitcoin article, we established our price projections for the entire year of 2024. In short, we expect a flat price movement through the Bitcoin (BTC-USD) halving before going to a new all-time high (ATH) at $90,000. Then, we started<span> observing Bitcoin mining companies through this lens. We intended to identify the Bitcoin mining company that could outperform the sector, but what we found was the emerging risk of a sector-wide consolidation. Therefore, we want to discuss the severe and adverse implications of this observation for Bitcoin.</span></p> <h2>The Reckoning of Bitcoin Miners</h2> <h3>The Unsustainability of Today's Bitcoin Miners</h3> <p>We project the average Bitcoin price from today (as of the time of writing) through April 2025 to be around $66,000. Then we benchmarked this projection against the major Bitcoin miners to determine their sustainability and profitability. Here's what we observed:</p> <ul> <li>Only Marathon Digital Holdings (MARA) and Iris Energy (IREN) can break even (Table 1) based on today's Bitcoin price.</li> <li>Post-halving, only IREN and MARA (barely) are expected to break even after the halving event (Table 2).</li> <li>The general total business costs per Bitcoin rose across the board, except for MARA and CLSK (potentially a one-off spike).</li> </ul> <p>Therefore, these observations imply that the risk of another wave of bankruptcies is real and tangible. For instance, the ones that \"went down\" (or nearly) in the previous bear market include Compass Mining, Bit Digital, Core Scientific, Greenidge Generation, Compute North, USBTC, and others. These unsustainable mining operations can potentially lead to a sector-wide consolidation.</p> <p><em>Table 1. Total Mining Cost Per BTC ($) of IREN, BITF, CLSK, RIOT, HUT, HIVE, and MARA</em></p> <span><span><span></span><table> <colgroup><col span=\"8\"/></colgroup> <tr> <td>Quarter (CY)</td> <td>IREN</td> <td>Bitfarms (BITF)</td> <td>CleanSpark (CLSK)</td> <td>Riot Platforms (RIOT)</td> <td>Hut 8 Corp. (HUT)</td> <td>HIVE Digital Technologies (HIVE)</td> <td>Marathon Digital Holdings (MARA)</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2023Q3</td> <td> </td> <td>44,600</td> <td>60,452</td> <td>65,800*</td> <td>80,500</td> <td>53,700</td> <td>39,900</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2023Q2</td> <td>33,640</td> <td>41,300</td> <td>37,050</td> <td>51,500*</td> <td>70,800</td> <td>45,400</td> <td>39,500</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2023Q1</td> <td> </td> <td>26,600</td> <td>33,276</td> <td>97,740</td> <td>70,900</td> <td>37,000</td> <td>32,100</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2022Q4</td> <td> </td> <td>34,200</td> <td>30,500</td> <td>53,200</td> <td>59,900</td> <td>48,000</td> <td>44,400</td> </tr> </table> <span></span></span><button><svg viewbox=\"0 0 16 16\" xmlns=\"http://www.w3.org/2000/svg\"><path clip-rule=\"evenodd\" d=\"M16 11a5 5 0 0 1-5 5H5a5 5 0 0 1-5-5V5a5 5 0 0 1 5-5h6a5 5 0 0 1 5 5v6zm-4.5-2.5h2v-6h-6v2h4v4zm-9-1h2v4h4v2h-6v-6z\" fill-rule=\"evenodd\"></path></svg>Click to enlarge</button></span> <p><em>Source: Author, * After deducting credits received</em></p> <h3>The Cause: \"Slow and Steady\"</h3> <p>The increase in mining cost per BTC presented can be explained by what we coined as \"Slow and Steady Lose The Race.\" We observed that Bitcoin mining companies that expanded slower than the Bitcoin network saw (1) their Bitcoin production decline and (2) their cost basis increase. Slower-than-network growth lowers a miner's network share and thus its Bitcoin production, while the slow expansion will still bring about higher operating costs and depreciation costs. Combining both production decline and higher costs results in an overall higher cost basis for the mining companies.</p> <p>Some might argue wouldn't a 0 expansion reduce the cost basis?</p> <p>In this study, we compared HUT's 0 expansion to BITF's \"some\" expansion. Here are the findings:</p> <ul> <li>HUT's total mining cost <em>declined</em> by 44% thanks to lower depreciation and operating costs. However, the total mining cost PER Bitcoin <em>went up</em> 88% because the Bitcoin production decline was so severe.</li> <li>BITF's total mining cost increased by 33% due to higher depreciation and operating costs. However, the total mining cost per Bitcoin went up only 72% because the Bitcoin production decline was much less severe.</li> </ul> <p>Hence, not expanding will result in a steeper decline in Bitcoin production that increases the overall cost basis.</p> <p>Based on these observations, a miner's top priority is to outgrow competitors, in other words, to grow faster than the Bitcoin network hash rate. In summary, the eventual outcome of a Bitcoin mining company that constantly falls behind the network growth is declining production and rising cost basis to the point of business infeasibility.</p> <h3>The Ripple Effect and Bitcoin's Long-Tail End-Game</h3> <p>Firstly, the unsustainability of Bitcoin miners can add downward pressure to the overall Bitcoin price. Simply, the higher the mining costs, the more Bitcoins had to be sold to cover expenses. This adds selling pressure. We've also seen how Bitcoin mining companies liquidate their Bitcoin holdings during times of distress. For instance, HUT, which previously had a perfect 100% HODL track record, liquidated its Bitcoin holdings to cover expenses and expansion. Other miners such as BITF, CLSK, HUT, and HIVE had also tapped into their Bitcoin reserves to cover expenses and expansions. The depressed Bitcoin price continues this vicious cycle.</p> <p>This vicious cycle could then force weaker miners (those losing network share) out of business and a series of acquisitions, mergers, and ceases of operations is likely to occur in the Bitcoin mining sector. Any one of these events contributes to a sector-wide consolidation because they result in fewer but bigger Bitcoin mining companies. These events also highlight the ability (operational sustainability) to outlast competitors because the surviving miners gain network share when a miner ceases operations.</p> <p>Another implication we can draw from this potential sector consolidation is to focus only on the strongest miners. We strongly favor CLSK while keeping tabs on MARA, BITF, and IREN. We favor CLSK because CLSK has shown consistent Bitcoin production growth, and network share growth while keeping total cost per Bitcoin in the low $30,000 level. MARA also looks promising for the same reason (Table 3), consistent Bitcoin production growth, network share growth, and cost basis. However, we have yet to look into MARA enough to recommend it. BITF has to show that it can meet its 2024Q2 guidance, while IREN is a strong contender if it begins to HODL Bitcoin. We avoid miners like RIOT and HUT as their problems are fundamental while CLSK's is simply a valuation one.</p> <p>While sector consolidation may benefit some miners in the short run, it is detrimental to the entire Bitcoin ecosystem in the long run. This kind of consolidation is fundamentally unfavorable to any trustless protocol because it makes a protocol more centralized. We can debate whether centralized finance or decentralized finance another time, but this is not the point. The point is the risk of Bitcoin's Proof-of-Work (PoW) trustless protocol collapsing increases proportionally to the degree of centralization of the mining sector. This risk is often called the 51% Attack Risk. In simple words, any one entity that manages to gather 51% of the Bitcoin network, that entity will be granted the ability to counterfeit Bitcoin's transactions. This is the weakness of the PoW protocol. The theoretical cost for a 51% attack can be found here. There are already many well-known PoW projects that have fallen to this 51% attack.</p> <p><em>Table 3. MARA's Showing Promise</em></p> <span><span><span></span><table> <colgroup><col span=\"6\"/></colgroup> <tr> <td>QR</td> <td>Built-up hash rate</td> <td>Bitcoin Production</td> <td>Total Mining Cost per BTC ('000)</td> <td>Bitcoin Network</td> <td>Network Share</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2023Q3</td> <td>23.1</td> <td>3,490</td> <td>39,000</td> <td>400</td> <td>5.78%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2023Q2</td> <td>21.8</td> <td>2,926</td> <td>39.5</td> <td>398</td> <td>5.48%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2023Q1</td> <td>11.5</td> <td>2,195</td> <td>32,100</td> <td>347</td> <td>3.31%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2022Q4</td> <td>7</td> <td>1,562</td> <td>44,400</td> <td>272.5</td> <td>2.57%</td> </tr> </table> <span></span></span><button><svg viewbox=\"0 0 16 16\" xmlns=\"http://www.w3.org/2000/svg\"><path clip-rule=\"evenodd\" d=\"M16 11a5 5 0 0 1-5 5H5a5 5 0 0 1-5-5V5a5 5 0 0 1 5-5h6a5 5 0 0 1 5 5v6zm-4.5-2.5h2v-6h-6v2h4v4zm-9-1h2v4h4v2h-6v-6z\" fill-rule=\"evenodd\"></path></svg>Click to enlarge</button></span> <p><em>Source: Author</em></p> <h2>Verdict</h2> <p>The implications and impact of \"slow and steady\" are vast and wide. In the short run, it causes the Bitcoin mining sector to consolidate and favor a subset of mining companies; In the long run, over-centralization could break Bitcoin.</p> <p>Bitcoin is also not foolproof. While institutions and corporations are getting more involved in the Bitcoin ecosystem (especially after the spot ETF), we do not think that Bitcoin is too big to fail because Bitcoin is being perceived as a threat to one's sovereign control over monetary policy, including the U.S. Hence, the Fed is unlikely to swoop in to save the day.</p> <p>Therefore, what we'll take from all these observations are as follows:</p> <ul> <li>We'll continue to be conservatively bullish on Bitcoin based on its decade-old halving cycle </li> <li>We'll continue to hold Bitcoin and wait for the ideal entry into CLSK while monitoring others.</li> <li>We'll not diversify broadly.</li> <li>We'll avoid miners that are losing network share.</li> </ul> <div></div> <p>Editor's Note: This article covers one or more microcap stocks. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Coming Reckoning Of Bitcoin Miners: A Sector Analysis</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Coming Reckoning Of Bitcoin Miners: A Sector Analysis\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-02-05 18:04 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4667487-coming-reckoning-bitcoin-miners-sector-analysis><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The implications and impact of \"slow and steady\" are vast and wide.It could cause the Bitcoin mining sector to consolidate and favor a subset of miners in the short run, while risk breaking Bitcoin's ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4667487-coming-reckoning-bitcoin-miners-sector-analysis\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BRRR":"Valkyrie Bitcoin Fund","ATH":"Athene Holding Ltd","RIOT":"Riot Platforms","BTCO":"Invesco Galaxy Bitcoin ETF","BTCW":"WisdomTree Bitcoin Fund","CY":"赛普拉斯半导体","HODL":"VanEck Bitcoin Trust ETF","HIVE":"Hive Blockchain","FBTC":"Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund","IREN":"Iris Energy Ltd","GBTC":"Grayscale Bitcoin Trust","DEFI":"Hashdex Bitcoin ETF","BK4023":"应用软件","BITB":"Bitwise Bitcoin ETF","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4594":"比特币ETF概念","HUT":"Hut 8 Mining Corp","BK4162":"人寿与健康保险","BK4595":"比特币概念","BITF":"Bitfarms Ltd.","IBIT":"iShares Bitcoin Trust","MARA":"MARA Holdings","BITO":"ProShares Bitcoin ETF","ARKB":"ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF","CLSK":"CleanSpark, Inc.","EZBC":"Franklin Bitcoin ETF"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4667487-coming-reckoning-bitcoin-miners-sector-analysis","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2409109697","content_text":"The implications and impact of \"slow and steady\" are vast and wide.It could cause the Bitcoin mining sector to consolidate and favor a subset of miners in the short run, while risk breaking Bitcoin's PoW protocol in the long run.These observations shape our expectations, HODL policy, and approach to Bitcoin mining sector.As big as the Bitcoin ecosystem may be, we do not expect the Fed to bail it in a crisis. Bitcoin miners with financially unsustainable operations are like zombies waiting to bite the dust. gremlin/E+ via Getty ImagesIntroduction In our previous Bitcoin article, we established our price projections for the entire year of 2024. In short, we expect a flat price movement through the Bitcoin (BTC-USD) halving before going to a new all-time high (ATH) at $90,000. Then, we started observing Bitcoin mining companies through this lens. We intended to identify the Bitcoin mining company that could outperform the sector, but what we found was the emerging risk of a sector-wide consolidation. Therefore, we want to discuss the severe and adverse implications of this observation for Bitcoin. The Reckoning of Bitcoin Miners The Unsustainability of Today's Bitcoin Miners We project the average Bitcoin price from today (as of the time of writing) through April 2025 to be around $66,000. Then we benchmarked this projection against the major Bitcoin miners to determine their sustainability and profitability. Here's what we observed: Only Marathon Digital Holdings (MARA) and Iris Energy (IREN) can break even (Table 1) based on today's Bitcoin price. Post-halving, only IREN and MARA (barely) are expected to break even after the halving event (Table 2). The general total business costs per Bitcoin rose across the board, except for MARA and CLSK (potentially a one-off spike). Therefore, these observations imply that the risk of another wave of bankruptcies is real and tangible. For instance, the ones that \"went down\" (or nearly) in the previous bear market include Compass Mining, Bit Digital, Core Scientific, Greenidge Generation, Compute North, USBTC, and others. These unsustainable mining operations can potentially lead to a sector-wide consolidation. Table 1. Total Mining Cost Per BTC ($) of IREN, BITF, CLSK, RIOT, HUT, HIVE, and MARA Quarter (CY) IREN Bitfarms (BITF) CleanSpark (CLSK) Riot Platforms (RIOT) Hut 8 Corp. (HUT) HIVE Digital Technologies (HIVE) Marathon Digital Holdings (MARA) 2023Q3 44,600 60,452 65,800* 80,500 53,700 39,900 2023Q2 33,640 41,300 37,050 51,500* 70,800 45,400 39,500 2023Q1 26,600 33,276 97,740 70,900 37,000 32,100 2022Q4 34,200 30,500 53,200 59,900 48,000 44,400 Click to enlarge Source: Author, * After deducting credits received The Cause: \"Slow and Steady\" The increase in mining cost per BTC presented can be explained by what we coined as \"Slow and Steady Lose The Race.\" We observed that Bitcoin mining companies that expanded slower than the Bitcoin network saw (1) their Bitcoin production decline and (2) their cost basis increase. Slower-than-network growth lowers a miner's network share and thus its Bitcoin production, while the slow expansion will still bring about higher operating costs and depreciation costs. Combining both production decline and higher costs results in an overall higher cost basis for the mining companies. Some might argue wouldn't a 0 expansion reduce the cost basis? In this study, we compared HUT's 0 expansion to BITF's \"some\" expansion. Here are the findings: HUT's total mining cost declined by 44% thanks to lower depreciation and operating costs. However, the total mining cost PER Bitcoin went up 88% because the Bitcoin production decline was so severe. BITF's total mining cost increased by 33% due to higher depreciation and operating costs. However, the total mining cost per Bitcoin went up only 72% because the Bitcoin production decline was much less severe. Hence, not expanding will result in a steeper decline in Bitcoin production that increases the overall cost basis. Based on these observations, a miner's top priority is to outgrow competitors, in other words, to grow faster than the Bitcoin network hash rate. In summary, the eventual outcome of a Bitcoin mining company that constantly falls behind the network growth is declining production and rising cost basis to the point of business infeasibility. The Ripple Effect and Bitcoin's Long-Tail End-Game Firstly, the unsustainability of Bitcoin miners can add downward pressure to the overall Bitcoin price. Simply, the higher the mining costs, the more Bitcoins had to be sold to cover expenses. This adds selling pressure. We've also seen how Bitcoin mining companies liquidate their Bitcoin holdings during times of distress. For instance, HUT, which previously had a perfect 100% HODL track record, liquidated its Bitcoin holdings to cover expenses and expansion. Other miners such as BITF, CLSK, HUT, and HIVE had also tapped into their Bitcoin reserves to cover expenses and expansions. The depressed Bitcoin price continues this vicious cycle. This vicious cycle could then force weaker miners (those losing network share) out of business and a series of acquisitions, mergers, and ceases of operations is likely to occur in the Bitcoin mining sector. Any one of these events contributes to a sector-wide consolidation because they result in fewer but bigger Bitcoin mining companies. These events also highlight the ability (operational sustainability) to outlast competitors because the surviving miners gain network share when a miner ceases operations. Another implication we can draw from this potential sector consolidation is to focus only on the strongest miners. We strongly favor CLSK while keeping tabs on MARA, BITF, and IREN. We favor CLSK because CLSK has shown consistent Bitcoin production growth, and network share growth while keeping total cost per Bitcoin in the low $30,000 level. MARA also looks promising for the same reason (Table 3), consistent Bitcoin production growth, network share growth, and cost basis. However, we have yet to look into MARA enough to recommend it. BITF has to show that it can meet its 2024Q2 guidance, while IREN is a strong contender if it begins to HODL Bitcoin. We avoid miners like RIOT and HUT as their problems are fundamental while CLSK's is simply a valuation one. While sector consolidation may benefit some miners in the short run, it is detrimental to the entire Bitcoin ecosystem in the long run. This kind of consolidation is fundamentally unfavorable to any trustless protocol because it makes a protocol more centralized. We can debate whether centralized finance or decentralized finance another time, but this is not the point. The point is the risk of Bitcoin's Proof-of-Work (PoW) trustless protocol collapsing increases proportionally to the degree of centralization of the mining sector. This risk is often called the 51% Attack Risk. In simple words, any one entity that manages to gather 51% of the Bitcoin network, that entity will be granted the ability to counterfeit Bitcoin's transactions. This is the weakness of the PoW protocol. The theoretical cost for a 51% attack can be found here. There are already many well-known PoW projects that have fallen to this 51% attack. Table 3. MARA's Showing Promise QR Built-up hash rate Bitcoin Production Total Mining Cost per BTC ('000) Bitcoin Network Network Share 2023Q3 23.1 3,490 39,000 400 5.78% 2023Q2 21.8 2,926 39.5 398 5.48% 2023Q1 11.5 2,195 32,100 347 3.31% 2022Q4 7 1,562 44,400 272.5 2.57% Click to enlarge Source: Author Verdict The implications and impact of \"slow and steady\" are vast and wide. In the short run, it causes the Bitcoin mining sector to consolidate and favor a subset of mining companies; In the long run, over-centralization could break Bitcoin. Bitcoin is also not foolproof. While institutions and corporations are getting more involved in the Bitcoin ecosystem (especially after the spot ETF), we do not think that Bitcoin is too big to fail because Bitcoin is being perceived as a threat to one's sovereign control over monetary policy, including the U.S. Hence, the Fed is unlikely to swoop in to save the day. Therefore, what we'll take from all these observations are as follows: We'll continue to be conservatively bullish on Bitcoin based on its decade-old halving cycle We'll continue to hold Bitcoin and wait for the ideal entry into CLSK while monitoring others. We'll not diversify broadly. We'll avoid miners that are losing network share. Editor's Note: This article covers one or more microcap stocks. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":39,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":214282328068216,"gmtCreate":1693354556269,"gmtModify":1693359464054,"author":{"id":"4106272640661640","authorId":"4106272640661640","name":"Richly Blessed","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4106272640661640","authorIdStr":"4106272640661640"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Share your opinion about this news…","listText":"Share your opinion about this news…","text":"Share your opinion about this news…","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/214282328068216","repostId":"2363541395","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":144,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9940984280,"gmtCreate":1677649686941,"gmtModify":1677650184800,"author":{"id":"4106272640661640","authorId":"4106272640661640","name":"Richly Blessed","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4106272640661640","authorIdStr":"4106272640661640"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/WPC.SI\">$VALLIANZ HOLDINGS LTD(WPC.SI)$ </a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/WPC.SI\">$VALLIANZ HOLDINGS LTD(WPC.SI)$ </a>","text":"$VALLIANZ HOLDINGS LTD(WPC.SI)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9940984280","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":154,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
