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2022-06-21

Granny state. [Cool]

Singapore Pushes Latest Laws to Regulate Online Content

2022-06-21

For anyone owning an EV will know, when the battery goes dead, the entire car is bricked. Solve the battery supply issue and you'll be king.

Tesla: Battery May Create A Winner-Take-All Situation

2022-06-21

Thanks for sharing. $CVR Energy Inc(CVI)$is a surprise in the list. Reminds me of Top Glove hitting peak then plummet never to return.

3 Stocks to Avoid This Week

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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[Cool]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9049617936","repostId":"1195032811","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1195032811","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1655781517,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1195032811?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-21 11:18","market":"sg","language":"en","title":"Singapore Pushes Latest Laws to Regulate Online Content","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1195032811","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"Singapore is joining global peers in proposing laws that will grant regulators the power to order so","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Singapore is joining global peers in proposing laws that will grant regulators the power to order social media services to remove or block online content deemed harmful especially to youths.</p><p>The envisioned rules also require social media platforms to implement community standards and content moderation processes to shield users from harmful content, communications minister Josephine Teo said in a Facebook post Monday. The guidelines, which will undergo public consultation starting next month, push social media companies to take greater responsibility for user safety, she said.</p><p>Singapore has long defended the need for laws to police content on the internet, saying the island is especially vulnerable to fake news and misinformation campaigns given it’s a financial hub with a multi-ethnic population that enjoys widespread internet access. But critics are concerned that recently enacted laws, such as ones barring foreign interference in local politics and governing online falsehoods, could be used to stem dissent or mis-applied because they’re too loosely defined. Meta Platforms Inc.’s Facebook are among those that have expressed concern with Singapore’s fake news law.</p><p>The Southeast Asian nation joins countries such as Australia, Germany and the UK, which have enacted or proposed online content and safety laws. US internet giants such as Meta and Alphabet Inc. are under growing pressure worldwide to curb the spread of misinformation on their globe-spanning platforms, most recently around the coronavirus pandemic. Governments are concerned about their influence in an era where more and more people get their news online and through social media.</p><p>Under the proposed laws, examples of content that could be blocked include live-streamed videos of mass shootings and viral social media challenges that encourage young people to perform dangerous stunts, according to the Straits Times. They will also take into account sensitive issues like race and religion, the newspaper added.</p><p>“Online safety is a growing concern and Singapore is not alone in seeking stronger safeguards for our people,” Teo said in her post. “There is a growing global movement pushing to enhance online safety, recognising harms come along with the good when people engage on social media.”</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Singapore Pushes Latest Laws to Regulate Online Content</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSingapore Pushes Latest Laws to Regulate Online Content\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-06-21 11:18 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.yahoo.com/news/singapore-pushes-latest-laws-regulate-013524124.html><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Singapore is joining global peers in proposing laws that will grant regulators the power to order social media services to remove or block online content deemed harmful especially to youths.The ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/singapore-pushes-latest-laws-regulate-013524124.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/singapore-pushes-latest-laws-regulate-013524124.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1195032811","content_text":"Singapore is joining global peers in proposing laws that will grant regulators the power to order social media services to remove or block online content deemed harmful especially to youths.The envisioned rules also require social media platforms to implement community standards and content moderation processes to shield users from harmful content, communications minister Josephine Teo said in a Facebook post Monday. The guidelines, which will undergo public consultation starting next month, push social media companies to take greater responsibility for user safety, she said.Singapore has long defended the need for laws to police content on the internet, saying the island is especially vulnerable to fake news and misinformation campaigns given it’s a financial hub with a multi-ethnic population that enjoys widespread internet access. But critics are concerned that recently enacted laws, such as ones barring foreign interference in local politics and governing online falsehoods, could be used to stem dissent or mis-applied because they’re too loosely defined. Meta Platforms Inc.’s Facebook are among those that have expressed concern with Singapore’s fake news law.The Southeast Asian nation joins countries such as Australia, Germany and the UK, which have enacted or proposed online content and safety laws. 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They will also take into account sensitive issues like race and religion, the newspaper added.“Online safety is a growing concern and Singapore is not alone in seeking stronger safeguards for our people,” Teo said in her post. “There is a growing global movement pushing to enhance online safety, recognising harms come along with the good when people engage on social media.”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":395,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9049696625,"gmtCreate":1655780599967,"gmtModify":1676535704270,"author":{"id":"4106869274809420","authorId":"4106869274809420","name":"glitterstar9","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a4d54b6823ec8a9a708c9ac3e2e5ea8d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4106869274809420","authorIdStr":"4106869274809420"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"For anyone owning an EV will know, when the battery goes dead, the entire car is bricked.&nbsp; Solve the battery supply issue&nbsp;and you'll be king.&nbsp;","listText":"For anyone owning an EV will know, when the battery goes dead, the entire car is bricked.&nbsp; Solve the battery supply issue&nbsp;and you'll be king.&nbsp;","text":"For anyone owning an EV will know, when the battery goes dead, the entire car is bricked. Solve the battery supply issue and you'll be king.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9049696625","repostId":"1134066941","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1134066941","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1655766811,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1134066941?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-21 07:13","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla: Battery May Create A Winner-Take-All Situation","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1134066941","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryInvesting in nonlinear stocks like Tesla is all about anticipating nonlinear effects.And an e","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Investing in nonlinear stocks like Tesla is all about anticipating nonlinear effects.</li><li>And an effective way involves drawing analogies from other nonlinear situations, especially situations with a wide range and variety.</li><li>The thesis, therefore, is to analyze the similarities between the current EV battery situation and the QWERTY keyboards in the typewriter industry.</li><li>The lack of standardization and the convolution of many non-technical factors can potentially create a winner-take-all situation.</li></ul><p><b>Thesis</b></p><p>Investing in nonlinear stocks like Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) is all about anticipating nonlinear effects. Investors not only need to have the ability to see around the corner but also need to do so before most people. However, to say this is hard is simply a truism. And a &#34;trick&#34; I find effective in analyzing nonlinear situations is to draw analogies from another nonlinear situation. I, of course, did not invent this trick. Others have discussed it in length, and books have been written about it. A recent one that I found very readable is David Epstein&#39;s bestseller entitled<i>&#34;Range: Why Generalists Triumph in a Specialized World&#34;</i>. Highly recommended.</p><p>Now, the art of drawing analogies lies in the <i>range</i>(hence the title of Epstein&#39;s book). Drawing analogies from similar situations does not help too much. We need to draw analogies from situations with <i>range</i>. Citing an example from his book, if you try to analyze the new competing landscape amid M&amp;As in a dynamic market, analyzing &#34;similar&#34; M&amp;As won&#39;t be too helpful. Most likely, there are no &#34;similar&#34; prior examples. It is more helpful to draw analogies from a completely different domain, for example, the power struggle of countries during a dynamic time (say Europe during the 1500s and 1600s).</p><p>Now, back to TSLA. The thesis is to analyze the current situation between its battery production and the QWERTY keyboards. Despite (or thanks to) the wide range of these two examples, you will see the central argument is that due to the lack of standardization, the battery issue potentially creates a winner-take-all situation in EV space, just like the QWERTY keyboard did in the keyboard space. Note that the thesis is not to argue if such potential is good or bad. Whether the dominance of the QWERTY keyboard is good or bad depends on your perspective and historical context. The thesis is just that there is such a potential and TSLA is one of the main contenders, thus creating an investment opportunity with enormous upside.</p><p><b>QWERTY Keyboard and EV Battery</b></p><p>A bit of background on the QWERTY keyboard first - in the off chance that some readers never paid attention to its history. The QWERTY design was designed for typewriters and became popular in 1878. It has remained in ubiquitous use since then. Before it became popular, there was a multitude of contemporary alternatives. But once it did, it dominated and became the <i>only</i> one left.</p><p>Now, back again to TSLA and batteries. A few key similarities here. First, the battery issue now, just like the keyboard design in the 1870s, lacks standardization and there is a multitude of alternative designs. TSLA itself has used and is still using multiple cell designs (18650, 2170, and more recently 4680), and it is unlikely that the EV industry will reach a standardization agreement anytime soon.</p><p>Second, the battery issue is crucial to the EV industry, just like the keyboard design is to the typewriter industry. We will elaborate more on the importance later.</p><p>Third, the winner does not have to be the &#34;best&#34; design, just like in the typewriter case. Many readers try to analyze the technical superiority of battery design A vs B. But the matter of fact is that in a highly nonlinear and dynamic market, many factors besides technical superiority contribute and convolute. Furthermore, once dominance is established, it sticks. The QWERTY keyboard in a sense is the least efficient design for modern computers, but this does not stop it from being <i>the</i> standard keyboard today when jamming the keys is a concern at all.</p><p><b>TSLA&#39;s Battery Plan</b></p><p>Let&#39;s discuss the crucial role of the battery issue in the EV industry. Simply put, it is <i>the</i> bottleneck issue. In my view, our EV problem equals a battery problem. TSLA (and other EV players too) recognized the issue a long time ago. For example, back in its 2020 Battery Day presentation, TSLA announced a battery plan to improve design, build its own cells, and better integrate the cells into the vehicle.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff981e3a652331155c7f5886da20e486\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"312\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>TSLA Investor Presentation</p><p>Fast-forward to 2022, TSLA celebrated its one-millionth 4680 cell production earlier in the year, as you can see from the following Twitter message sent out by Elon Musk. It&#39;s a baby step, admittedly. Each Model Y needs about 1k of these cells. So 1 million 4680 cells are only enough for about 1,000 Model Ys. But it is a good start. Because the next steps can be so nonlinear that a small step can create far-fetching ripple effects, as discussed next.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94210d04b6183bf77eef16f988b8f857\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"557\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>TSLA Official Twitter</p><p><b>Nonlinear Effects of Battery</b></p><p>First, some technical background. Compared to the earlier 2170 cells, each 4680 cell is about 5x large in volume and can, therefore, hold about 5x the energy of each 2170 cell. Regarding the 4680 cells, a common comment from readers to my other battery article involves a zero-sum counter-argument. Since each 4680 cell is 5x larger than 2170 cells in volume and only delivers 5x more energy, are they not the same? In terms of material cost, manufacturing cost, weight, et al?</p><p>My answer is no because of the second-order effects. Not all the components scale equally. For example, the weight of the steel casings is less in the 4680 which would allow greater amounts of active components (it has to do with the surface area/volume ratio, a detail best left for the comment section). Furthermore, 5x more energy means 5x fewer <i>numbers</i> of cells used per vehicle. When the number of cells decreases, the use of connectors, assemble difficulty, and logistics all decrease. In the end, the 4680 cells can deliver 6x the power (the distinction between energy and power is again best left for the comments) and boost the driving range by 16%.</p><p>Then there are even higher-order effects and non-technical effects (well, maybe still technical, just beyond the range of battery technicalities). For example, the in-house production of 4680 cells can lead to more streamlined battery-vehicle integration. Further down the road, battery-software integration would be the next logical step toward driving range optimization and even autonomous driving.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31b141b337b16ad62a5734d606f84b89\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"346\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>TSLA Investor Presentation</p><p><b>Final Thoughts and Risks</b></p><p>In my view, our EV problem is a battery problem. And the battery problem has the potential to create a win-take-all situation in the EV space, just like the QWERTY keyboard did for typewriters. These two situations share many similarities: notably the lack of standardization and the convolution of many non-technical factors. TSLA&#39;s in-house production of the 4680 cells is admittedly a small step on the battery front. But it creates the potential to trigger other high-order effects. I view it as a bullish catalyst, and it puts TSLA in a more advantageous position as a contender.</p><p>TSLA faces many risks, both in terms of its batteries and beyond.</p><p>It is currently facing supply chain constraints and rising costs (especially on raw materials and electronics for batteries). As a result, it has just announced significant increases of the prices of EVs with some models going up by as much as $6,000. Whether these price increases can work out successfully or not remains to be seen.</p><p>Economies-of-scale is a limiting factor to reduce battery costs, and TSLA&#39;s 4680 cells have not reached this critical scale yet (far away from it). The earlier 18650 cells, for example, have taken billions of units produced to make them economically attractive to a wide range of producers and end-users.</p><p>TSLA&#39;s vertical integration plan in the battery space also faces uncertainties and competition. On its 2020 Battery Day, TSLA announced its planned entry into lithium mining. The plan was to start with buying lithium claims on 10,000 acres in Nevada. But nothing has really happened so far (while other players including Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) (BRK.B) have been actively developing lithium extraction techniques and facilities). AndMusk Twittedrecently about &#34;actually&#34; getting on with this (the emphases were added by me):</p><blockquote>&#34;Price of lithium has gone to insane levels! Tesla<b>might actually have to</b>get into the mining and refining directly at scale, unless costs improve. There is no shortage of the element itself, as lithium is almost everywhere on Earth, but pace of extraction/refinement is slow.&#34;</blockquote></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla: Battery May Create A Winner-Take-All Situation</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla: Battery May Create A Winner-Take-All Situation\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-06-21 07:13 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4519360-tesla-tsla-battery-may-create-winner-take-all-situation?source=content_type%3Areact%7Cfirst_level_url%3Ahome%7Csection%3Aportfolio%7Csection_asset%3Aheadlines%7Cline%3A2><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryInvesting in nonlinear stocks like Tesla is all about anticipating nonlinear effects.And an effective way involves drawing analogies from other nonlinear situations, especially situations with ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4519360-tesla-tsla-battery-may-create-winner-take-all-situation?source=content_type%3Areact%7Cfirst_level_url%3Ahome%7Csection%3Aportfolio%7Csection_asset%3Aheadlines%7Cline%3A2\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4519360-tesla-tsla-battery-may-create-winner-take-all-situation?source=content_type%3Areact%7Cfirst_level_url%3Ahome%7Csection%3Aportfolio%7Csection_asset%3Aheadlines%7Cline%3A2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1134066941","content_text":"SummaryInvesting in nonlinear stocks like Tesla is all about anticipating nonlinear effects.And an effective way involves drawing analogies from other nonlinear situations, especially situations with a wide range and variety.The thesis, therefore, is to analyze the similarities between the current EV battery situation and the QWERTY keyboards in the typewriter industry.The lack of standardization and the convolution of many non-technical factors can potentially create a winner-take-all situation.ThesisInvesting in nonlinear stocks like Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) is all about anticipating nonlinear effects. Investors not only need to have the ability to see around the corner but also need to do so before most people. However, to say this is hard is simply a truism. And a \"trick\" I find effective in analyzing nonlinear situations is to draw analogies from another nonlinear situation. I, of course, did not invent this trick. Others have discussed it in length, and books have been written about it. A recent one that I found very readable is David Epstein's bestseller entitled\"Range: Why Generalists Triumph in a Specialized World\". Highly recommended.Now, the art of drawing analogies lies in the range(hence the title of Epstein's book). Drawing analogies from similar situations does not help too much. We need to draw analogies from situations with range. Citing an example from his book, if you try to analyze the new competing landscape amid M&As in a dynamic market, analyzing \"similar\" M&As won't be too helpful. Most likely, there are no \"similar\" prior examples. It is more helpful to draw analogies from a completely different domain, for example, the power struggle of countries during a dynamic time (say Europe during the 1500s and 1600s).Now, back to TSLA. The thesis is to analyze the current situation between its battery production and the QWERTY keyboards. Despite (or thanks to) the wide range of these two examples, you will see the central argument is that due to the lack of standardization, the battery issue potentially creates a winner-take-all situation in EV space, just like the QWERTY keyboard did in the keyboard space. Note that the thesis is not to argue if such potential is good or bad. Whether the dominance of the QWERTY keyboard is good or bad depends on your perspective and historical context. The thesis is just that there is such a potential and TSLA is one of the main contenders, thus creating an investment opportunity with enormous upside.QWERTY Keyboard and EV BatteryA bit of background on the QWERTY keyboard first - in the off chance that some readers never paid attention to its history. The QWERTY design was designed for typewriters and became popular in 1878. It has remained in ubiquitous use since then. Before it became popular, there was a multitude of contemporary alternatives. But once it did, it dominated and became the only one left.Now, back again to TSLA and batteries. A few key similarities here. First, the battery issue now, just like the keyboard design in the 1870s, lacks standardization and there is a multitude of alternative designs. TSLA itself has used and is still using multiple cell designs (18650, 2170, and more recently 4680), and it is unlikely that the EV industry will reach a standardization agreement anytime soon.Second, the battery issue is crucial to the EV industry, just like the keyboard design is to the typewriter industry. We will elaborate more on the importance later.Third, the winner does not have to be the \"best\" design, just like in the typewriter case. Many readers try to analyze the technical superiority of battery design A vs B. But the matter of fact is that in a highly nonlinear and dynamic market, many factors besides technical superiority contribute and convolute. Furthermore, once dominance is established, it sticks. The QWERTY keyboard in a sense is the least efficient design for modern computers, but this does not stop it from being the standard keyboard today when jamming the keys is a concern at all.TSLA's Battery PlanLet's discuss the crucial role of the battery issue in the EV industry. Simply put, it is the bottleneck issue. In my view, our EV problem equals a battery problem. TSLA (and other EV players too) recognized the issue a long time ago. For example, back in its 2020 Battery Day presentation, TSLA announced a battery plan to improve design, build its own cells, and better integrate the cells into the vehicle.TSLA Investor PresentationFast-forward to 2022, TSLA celebrated its one-millionth 4680 cell production earlier in the year, as you can see from the following Twitter message sent out by Elon Musk. It's a baby step, admittedly. Each Model Y needs about 1k of these cells. So 1 million 4680 cells are only enough for about 1,000 Model Ys. But it is a good start. Because the next steps can be so nonlinear that a small step can create far-fetching ripple effects, as discussed next.TSLA Official TwitterNonlinear Effects of BatteryFirst, some technical background. Compared to the earlier 2170 cells, each 4680 cell is about 5x large in volume and can, therefore, hold about 5x the energy of each 2170 cell. Regarding the 4680 cells, a common comment from readers to my other battery article involves a zero-sum counter-argument. Since each 4680 cell is 5x larger than 2170 cells in volume and only delivers 5x more energy, are they not the same? In terms of material cost, manufacturing cost, weight, et al?My answer is no because of the second-order effects. Not all the components scale equally. For example, the weight of the steel casings is less in the 4680 which would allow greater amounts of active components (it has to do with the surface area/volume ratio, a detail best left for the comment section). Furthermore, 5x more energy means 5x fewer numbers of cells used per vehicle. When the number of cells decreases, the use of connectors, assemble difficulty, and logistics all decrease. In the end, the 4680 cells can deliver 6x the power (the distinction between energy and power is again best left for the comments) and boost the driving range by 16%.Then there are even higher-order effects and non-technical effects (well, maybe still technical, just beyond the range of battery technicalities). For example, the in-house production of 4680 cells can lead to more streamlined battery-vehicle integration. Further down the road, battery-software integration would be the next logical step toward driving range optimization and even autonomous driving.TSLA Investor PresentationFinal Thoughts and RisksIn my view, our EV problem is a battery problem. And the battery problem has the potential to create a win-take-all situation in the EV space, just like the QWERTY keyboard did for typewriters. These two situations share many similarities: notably the lack of standardization and the convolution of many non-technical factors. TSLA's in-house production of the 4680 cells is admittedly a small step on the battery front. But it creates the potential to trigger other high-order effects. I view it as a bullish catalyst, and it puts TSLA in a more advantageous position as a contender.TSLA faces many risks, both in terms of its batteries and beyond.It is currently facing supply chain constraints and rising costs (especially on raw materials and electronics for batteries). As a result, it has just announced significant increases of the prices of EVs with some models going up by as much as $6,000. Whether these price increases can work out successfully or not remains to be seen.Economies-of-scale is a limiting factor to reduce battery costs, and TSLA's 4680 cells have not reached this critical scale yet (far away from it). The earlier 18650 cells, for example, have taken billions of units produced to make them economically attractive to a wide range of producers and end-users.TSLA's vertical integration plan in the battery space also faces uncertainties and competition. On its 2020 Battery Day, TSLA announced its planned entry into lithium mining. The plan was to start with buying lithium claims on 10,000 acres in Nevada. But nothing has really happened so far (while other players including Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) (BRK.B) have been actively developing lithium extraction techniques and facilities). AndMusk Twittedrecently about \"actually\" getting on with this (the emphases were added by me):\"Price of lithium has gone to insane levels! Teslamight actually have toget into the mining and refining directly at scale, unless costs improve. There is no shortage of the element itself, as lithium is almost everywhere on Earth, but pace of extraction/refinement is slow.\"","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":397,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9049690123,"gmtCreate":1655780079962,"gmtModify":1676535704093,"author":{"id":"4106869274809420","authorId":"4106869274809420","name":"glitterstar9","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a4d54b6823ec8a9a708c9ac3e2e5ea8d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4106869274809420","authorIdStr":"4106869274809420"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanks for sharing.&nbsp;<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/CVI\">$CVR Energy Inc(CVI)$</a>is a surprise in the list.&nbsp; Reminds me of Top Glove hitting peak then plummet never to return.","listText":"Thanks for sharing.&nbsp;<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/CVI\">$CVR Energy Inc(CVI)$</a>is a surprise in the list.&nbsp; Reminds me of Top Glove hitting peak then plummet never to return.","text":"Thanks for sharing. $CVR Energy Inc(CVI)$is a surprise in the list. Reminds me of Top Glove hitting peak then plummet never to return.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9049690123","repostId":"2244800443","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2244800443","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1655769621,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2244800443?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-21 08:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Stocks to Avoid This Week","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2244800443","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"These investments seem pretty vulnerable right now.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>My &#34;three stocks to avoid&#34; column last week was a dud. The three stocks I thought were going to move lower for the week -- <b>Oracle</b>, <b>Beyond Air</b>, and <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLNK\">Blink Charging</a></b> -- finished up 1%, up 5%, and flat, respectively, averaging out to a 2% gain.</p><p>The <b>S&amp;P 500</b> experienced a 5.8% drop, and the investments I figured would fare worse did a lot better. I was wrong, but I have still been correct in 24 of the past 35 weeks.</p><p>Where do I go to next? I see <b>Rite Aid</b>, <b>MicroStrategy</b>, and <b>CVR Energy</b> as stocks you may want to consider steering clear of this week. Let&#39;s go over my near-term concerns with all three investments.</p><h2><b>Rite Aid</b></h2><p>Time hasn&#39;t been kind to Rite Aid since it rejected a buyout proposal to take the drugstore operator private at $14.60 a share three months ago. The stock begins this holiday-shortened trading week at $6.20.</p><p>It doesn&#39;t help that Rite Aid also posted a much larger quarterly loss than analysts were expecting in April. Adding fuel to the fire sale, the drugstore chain reports fresh financials on Thursday morning.</p><p>There&#39;s always hope that Rite Aid eventually finds a suitable exit strategy. It never truly recovered from when shareholders shot down a proposed pairing with Walgreens a few years ago. It also has assets it may be able to unlock. <b>Deutsche Bank</b> stunned the market when it slashed its price target on Rite Aid from $16 to $1 three months ago. Deutsche Bank analyst George Hill has since boosted that price goal to $2, and then $4 on the potential for Rite Aid to raise money by selling its pharmacy benefits manager business, but he&#39;s sticking to his bearish sell rating. The upside is there if Rite Aid can ever get beyond its arrogance, but for now it has a pending quarterly earnings update, and that didn&#39;t go well last time.</p><h2><b>MicroStrategy</b></h2><p>There&#39;s been something wrong with the crypto market in recent months, and the chaos is only intensifying. We&#39;ve even seen a stablecoin and a decentralized finance platform slam on the brakes in the past couple of weeks. The market&#39;s confidence in digital currencies has been rattled, possibly to the point where it&#39;s irreversible. Where does that leave MicroStrategy?</p><p>CEO Michael Saylor has gone all in on <b>Bitcoin</b> (BTC 6.58%). It&#39;s a decision that seemed brilliant when he invested billions in the top crypto as it was rising. But it&#39;s been disastrous on the way down. More to the point, the enterprise software company that Sailor should be focusing on was never exciting. We&#39;re talking about declining annual revenue in six of the past seven years. Bitcoin&#39;s crash is showing us that the emperor has no clothes, but it&#39;s not as if MicroStrategy itself was a snappy dresser before the costly infatuation with the imploding crypto market.</p><h2><b>CVR Energy</b></h2><p>After back-to-back weeks of greater-than 5% slides, I want my third pick to be hopeful for a general market rebound. This means betting against an investment that&#39;s been rising as general markets are falling. One of the largest companies to have more than doubled in 2022 is CVR Energy.</p><p>The petroleum refiner and maker of nitrogen fertilizer is booming alongside most oil and gas stocks this year. With petroleum prices soaring, it&#39;s easy to see why the stock is up 105% year to date. However, the good times aren&#39;t expected to last. Revenue and earnings are skyrocketing this year, but analysts see an 8% revenue decline come 2023, with earnings cut nearly in half. Looking back, it has also posted a larger-than-expected adjusted loss in two of the past three quarters. If the overall market starts to recover, there will be some rotation out of this red-hot sector. CVR Energy is doing a lot of things right, but even winners need to take a breather now and then.</p><p>It&#39;s going to be a bumpy road for some of these investments. If you&#39;re looking for safe stocks, you aren&#39;t likely to find them in Rite Aid, MicroStrategy, or CVR Energy this week.</p></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Stocks to Avoid This Week</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Stocks to Avoid This Week\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-06-21 08:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/06/20/3-stocks-to-avoid-this-week/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>My \"three stocks to avoid\" column last week was a dud. The three stocks I thought were going to move lower for the week -- Oracle, Beyond Air, and Blink Charging -- finished up 1%, up 5%, and flat, ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/06/20/3-stocks-to-avoid-this-week/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MSTR":"MicroStrategy","CVI":"CVR能源","RAD":"来德爱"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/06/20/3-stocks-to-avoid-this-week/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2244800443","content_text":"My \"three stocks to avoid\" column last week was a dud. The three stocks I thought were going to move lower for the week -- Oracle, Beyond Air, and Blink Charging -- finished up 1%, up 5%, and flat, respectively, averaging out to a 2% gain.The S&P 500 experienced a 5.8% drop, and the investments I figured would fare worse did a lot better. I was wrong, but I have still been correct in 24 of the past 35 weeks.Where do I go to next? I see Rite Aid, MicroStrategy, and CVR Energy as stocks you may want to consider steering clear of this week. Let's go over my near-term concerns with all three investments.Rite AidTime hasn't been kind to Rite Aid since it rejected a buyout proposal to take the drugstore operator private at $14.60 a share three months ago. The stock begins this holiday-shortened trading week at $6.20.It doesn't help that Rite Aid also posted a much larger quarterly loss than analysts were expecting in April. Adding fuel to the fire sale, the drugstore chain reports fresh financials on Thursday morning.There's always hope that Rite Aid eventually finds a suitable exit strategy. It never truly recovered from when shareholders shot down a proposed pairing with Walgreens a few years ago. It also has assets it may be able to unlock. Deutsche Bank stunned the market when it slashed its price target on Rite Aid from $16 to $1 three months ago. Deutsche Bank analyst George Hill has since boosted that price goal to $2, and then $4 on the potential for Rite Aid to raise money by selling its pharmacy benefits manager business, but he's sticking to his bearish sell rating. The upside is there if Rite Aid can ever get beyond its arrogance, but for now it has a pending quarterly earnings update, and that didn't go well last time.MicroStrategyThere's been something wrong with the crypto market in recent months, and the chaos is only intensifying. We've even seen a stablecoin and a decentralized finance platform slam on the brakes in the past couple of weeks. The market's confidence in digital currencies has been rattled, possibly to the point where it's irreversible. Where does that leave MicroStrategy?CEO Michael Saylor has gone all in on Bitcoin (BTC 6.58%). It's a decision that seemed brilliant when he invested billions in the top crypto as it was rising. But it's been disastrous on the way down. More to the point, the enterprise software company that Sailor should be focusing on was never exciting. We're talking about declining annual revenue in six of the past seven years. Bitcoin's crash is showing us that the emperor has no clothes, but it's not as if MicroStrategy itself was a snappy dresser before the costly infatuation with the imploding crypto market.CVR EnergyAfter back-to-back weeks of greater-than 5% slides, I want my third pick to be hopeful for a general market rebound. This means betting against an investment that's been rising as general markets are falling. One of the largest companies to have more than doubled in 2022 is CVR Energy.The petroleum refiner and maker of nitrogen fertilizer is booming alongside most oil and gas stocks this year. With petroleum prices soaring, it's easy to see why the stock is up 105% year to date. However, the good times aren't expected to last. Revenue and earnings are skyrocketing this year, but analysts see an 8% revenue decline come 2023, with earnings cut nearly in half. Looking back, it has also posted a larger-than-expected adjusted loss in two of the past three quarters. If the overall market starts to recover, there will be some rotation out of this red-hot sector. CVR Energy is doing a lot of things right, but even winners need to take a breather now and then.It's going to be a bumpy road for some of these investments. If you're looking for safe stocks, you aren't likely to find them in Rite Aid, MicroStrategy, or CVR Energy this week.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":562,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9049690123,"gmtCreate":1655780079962,"gmtModify":1676535704093,"author":{"id":"4106869274809420","authorId":"4106869274809420","name":"glitterstar9","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a4d54b6823ec8a9a708c9ac3e2e5ea8d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4106869274809420","idStr":"4106869274809420"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanks for sharing.&nbsp;<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/CVI\">$CVR Energy Inc(CVI)$</a>is a surprise in the list.&nbsp; Reminds me of Top Glove hitting peak then plummet never to return.","listText":"Thanks for sharing.&nbsp;<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/CVI\">$CVR Energy Inc(CVI)$</a>is a surprise in the list.&nbsp; Reminds me of Top Glove hitting peak then plummet never to return.","text":"Thanks for sharing. $CVR Energy Inc(CVI)$is a surprise in the list. Reminds me of Top Glove hitting peak then plummet never to return.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9049690123","repostId":"2244800443","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":562,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9049696625,"gmtCreate":1655780599967,"gmtModify":1676535704270,"author":{"id":"4106869274809420","authorId":"4106869274809420","name":"glitterstar9","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a4d54b6823ec8a9a708c9ac3e2e5ea8d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4106869274809420","idStr":"4106869274809420"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"For anyone owning an EV will know, when the battery goes dead, the entire car is bricked.&nbsp; Solve the battery supply issue&nbsp;and you'll be king.&nbsp;","listText":"For anyone owning an EV will know, when the battery goes dead, the entire car is bricked.&nbsp; Solve the battery supply issue&nbsp;and you'll be king.&nbsp;","text":"For anyone owning an EV will know, when the battery goes dead, the entire car is bricked. Solve the battery supply issue and you'll be king.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9049696625","repostId":"1134066941","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1134066941","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1655766811,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1134066941?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-21 07:13","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla: Battery May Create A Winner-Take-All Situation","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1134066941","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryInvesting in nonlinear stocks like Tesla is all about anticipating nonlinear effects.And an e","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Investing in nonlinear stocks like Tesla is all about anticipating nonlinear effects.</li><li>And an effective way involves drawing analogies from other nonlinear situations, especially situations with a wide range and variety.</li><li>The thesis, therefore, is to analyze the similarities between the current EV battery situation and the QWERTY keyboards in the typewriter industry.</li><li>The lack of standardization and the convolution of many non-technical factors can potentially create a winner-take-all situation.</li></ul><p><b>Thesis</b></p><p>Investing in nonlinear stocks like Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) is all about anticipating nonlinear effects. Investors not only need to have the ability to see around the corner but also need to do so before most people. However, to say this is hard is simply a truism. And a &#34;trick&#34; I find effective in analyzing nonlinear situations is to draw analogies from another nonlinear situation. I, of course, did not invent this trick. Others have discussed it in length, and books have been written about it. A recent one that I found very readable is David Epstein&#39;s bestseller entitled<i>&#34;Range: Why Generalists Triumph in a Specialized World&#34;</i>. Highly recommended.</p><p>Now, the art of drawing analogies lies in the <i>range</i>(hence the title of Epstein&#39;s book). Drawing analogies from similar situations does not help too much. We need to draw analogies from situations with <i>range</i>. Citing an example from his book, if you try to analyze the new competing landscape amid M&amp;As in a dynamic market, analyzing &#34;similar&#34; M&amp;As won&#39;t be too helpful. Most likely, there are no &#34;similar&#34; prior examples. It is more helpful to draw analogies from a completely different domain, for example, the power struggle of countries during a dynamic time (say Europe during the 1500s and 1600s).</p><p>Now, back to TSLA. The thesis is to analyze the current situation between its battery production and the QWERTY keyboards. Despite (or thanks to) the wide range of these two examples, you will see the central argument is that due to the lack of standardization, the battery issue potentially creates a winner-take-all situation in EV space, just like the QWERTY keyboard did in the keyboard space. Note that the thesis is not to argue if such potential is good or bad. Whether the dominance of the QWERTY keyboard is good or bad depends on your perspective and historical context. The thesis is just that there is such a potential and TSLA is one of the main contenders, thus creating an investment opportunity with enormous upside.</p><p><b>QWERTY Keyboard and EV Battery</b></p><p>A bit of background on the QWERTY keyboard first - in the off chance that some readers never paid attention to its history. The QWERTY design was designed for typewriters and became popular in 1878. It has remained in ubiquitous use since then. Before it became popular, there was a multitude of contemporary alternatives. But once it did, it dominated and became the <i>only</i> one left.</p><p>Now, back again to TSLA and batteries. A few key similarities here. First, the battery issue now, just like the keyboard design in the 1870s, lacks standardization and there is a multitude of alternative designs. TSLA itself has used and is still using multiple cell designs (18650, 2170, and more recently 4680), and it is unlikely that the EV industry will reach a standardization agreement anytime soon.</p><p>Second, the battery issue is crucial to the EV industry, just like the keyboard design is to the typewriter industry. We will elaborate more on the importance later.</p><p>Third, the winner does not have to be the &#34;best&#34; design, just like in the typewriter case. Many readers try to analyze the technical superiority of battery design A vs B. But the matter of fact is that in a highly nonlinear and dynamic market, many factors besides technical superiority contribute and convolute. Furthermore, once dominance is established, it sticks. The QWERTY keyboard in a sense is the least efficient design for modern computers, but this does not stop it from being <i>the</i> standard keyboard today when jamming the keys is a concern at all.</p><p><b>TSLA&#39;s Battery Plan</b></p><p>Let&#39;s discuss the crucial role of the battery issue in the EV industry. Simply put, it is <i>the</i> bottleneck issue. In my view, our EV problem equals a battery problem. TSLA (and other EV players too) recognized the issue a long time ago. For example, back in its 2020 Battery Day presentation, TSLA announced a battery plan to improve design, build its own cells, and better integrate the cells into the vehicle.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff981e3a652331155c7f5886da20e486\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"312\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>TSLA Investor Presentation</p><p>Fast-forward to 2022, TSLA celebrated its one-millionth 4680 cell production earlier in the year, as you can see from the following Twitter message sent out by Elon Musk. It&#39;s a baby step, admittedly. Each Model Y needs about 1k of these cells. So 1 million 4680 cells are only enough for about 1,000 Model Ys. But it is a good start. Because the next steps can be so nonlinear that a small step can create far-fetching ripple effects, as discussed next.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94210d04b6183bf77eef16f988b8f857\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"557\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>TSLA Official Twitter</p><p><b>Nonlinear Effects of Battery</b></p><p>First, some technical background. Compared to the earlier 2170 cells, each 4680 cell is about 5x large in volume and can, therefore, hold about 5x the energy of each 2170 cell. Regarding the 4680 cells, a common comment from readers to my other battery article involves a zero-sum counter-argument. Since each 4680 cell is 5x larger than 2170 cells in volume and only delivers 5x more energy, are they not the same? In terms of material cost, manufacturing cost, weight, et al?</p><p>My answer is no because of the second-order effects. Not all the components scale equally. For example, the weight of the steel casings is less in the 4680 which would allow greater amounts of active components (it has to do with the surface area/volume ratio, a detail best left for the comment section). Furthermore, 5x more energy means 5x fewer <i>numbers</i> of cells used per vehicle. When the number of cells decreases, the use of connectors, assemble difficulty, and logistics all decrease. In the end, the 4680 cells can deliver 6x the power (the distinction between energy and power is again best left for the comments) and boost the driving range by 16%.</p><p>Then there are even higher-order effects and non-technical effects (well, maybe still technical, just beyond the range of battery technicalities). For example, the in-house production of 4680 cells can lead to more streamlined battery-vehicle integration. Further down the road, battery-software integration would be the next logical step toward driving range optimization and even autonomous driving.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31b141b337b16ad62a5734d606f84b89\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"346\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>TSLA Investor Presentation</p><p><b>Final Thoughts and Risks</b></p><p>In my view, our EV problem is a battery problem. And the battery problem has the potential to create a win-take-all situation in the EV space, just like the QWERTY keyboard did for typewriters. These two situations share many similarities: notably the lack of standardization and the convolution of many non-technical factors. TSLA&#39;s in-house production of the 4680 cells is admittedly a small step on the battery front. But it creates the potential to trigger other high-order effects. I view it as a bullish catalyst, and it puts TSLA in a more advantageous position as a contender.</p><p>TSLA faces many risks, both in terms of its batteries and beyond.</p><p>It is currently facing supply chain constraints and rising costs (especially on raw materials and electronics for batteries). As a result, it has just announced significant increases of the prices of EVs with some models going up by as much as $6,000. Whether these price increases can work out successfully or not remains to be seen.</p><p>Economies-of-scale is a limiting factor to reduce battery costs, and TSLA&#39;s 4680 cells have not reached this critical scale yet (far away from it). The earlier 18650 cells, for example, have taken billions of units produced to make them economically attractive to a wide range of producers and end-users.</p><p>TSLA&#39;s vertical integration plan in the battery space also faces uncertainties and competition. On its 2020 Battery Day, TSLA announced its planned entry into lithium mining. The plan was to start with buying lithium claims on 10,000 acres in Nevada. But nothing has really happened so far (while other players including Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) (BRK.B) have been actively developing lithium extraction techniques and facilities). AndMusk Twittedrecently about &#34;actually&#34; getting on with this (the emphases were added by me):</p><blockquote>&#34;Price of lithium has gone to insane levels! Tesla<b>might actually have to</b>get into the mining and refining directly at scale, unless costs improve. There is no shortage of the element itself, as lithium is almost everywhere on Earth, but pace of extraction/refinement is slow.&#34;</blockquote></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla: Battery May Create A Winner-Take-All Situation</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla: Battery May Create A Winner-Take-All Situation\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-06-21 07:13 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4519360-tesla-tsla-battery-may-create-winner-take-all-situation?source=content_type%3Areact%7Cfirst_level_url%3Ahome%7Csection%3Aportfolio%7Csection_asset%3Aheadlines%7Cline%3A2><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryInvesting in nonlinear stocks like Tesla is all about anticipating nonlinear effects.And an effective way involves drawing analogies from other nonlinear situations, especially situations with ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4519360-tesla-tsla-battery-may-create-winner-take-all-situation?source=content_type%3Areact%7Cfirst_level_url%3Ahome%7Csection%3Aportfolio%7Csection_asset%3Aheadlines%7Cline%3A2\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4519360-tesla-tsla-battery-may-create-winner-take-all-situation?source=content_type%3Areact%7Cfirst_level_url%3Ahome%7Csection%3Aportfolio%7Csection_asset%3Aheadlines%7Cline%3A2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1134066941","content_text":"SummaryInvesting in nonlinear stocks like Tesla is all about anticipating nonlinear effects.And an effective way involves drawing analogies from other nonlinear situations, especially situations with a wide range and variety.The thesis, therefore, is to analyze the similarities between the current EV battery situation and the QWERTY keyboards in the typewriter industry.The lack of standardization and the convolution of many non-technical factors can potentially create a winner-take-all situation.ThesisInvesting in nonlinear stocks like Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) is all about anticipating nonlinear effects. Investors not only need to have the ability to see around the corner but also need to do so before most people. However, to say this is hard is simply a truism. And a \"trick\" I find effective in analyzing nonlinear situations is to draw analogies from another nonlinear situation. I, of course, did not invent this trick. Others have discussed it in length, and books have been written about it. A recent one that I found very readable is David Epstein's bestseller entitled\"Range: Why Generalists Triumph in a Specialized World\". Highly recommended.Now, the art of drawing analogies lies in the range(hence the title of Epstein's book). Drawing analogies from similar situations does not help too much. We need to draw analogies from situations with range. Citing an example from his book, if you try to analyze the new competing landscape amid M&As in a dynamic market, analyzing \"similar\" M&As won't be too helpful. Most likely, there are no \"similar\" prior examples. It is more helpful to draw analogies from a completely different domain, for example, the power struggle of countries during a dynamic time (say Europe during the 1500s and 1600s).Now, back to TSLA. The thesis is to analyze the current situation between its battery production and the QWERTY keyboards. Despite (or thanks to) the wide range of these two examples, you will see the central argument is that due to the lack of standardization, the battery issue potentially creates a winner-take-all situation in EV space, just like the QWERTY keyboard did in the keyboard space. Note that the thesis is not to argue if such potential is good or bad. Whether the dominance of the QWERTY keyboard is good or bad depends on your perspective and historical context. The thesis is just that there is such a potential and TSLA is one of the main contenders, thus creating an investment opportunity with enormous upside.QWERTY Keyboard and EV BatteryA bit of background on the QWERTY keyboard first - in the off chance that some readers never paid attention to its history. The QWERTY design was designed for typewriters and became popular in 1878. It has remained in ubiquitous use since then. Before it became popular, there was a multitude of contemporary alternatives. But once it did, it dominated and became the only one left.Now, back again to TSLA and batteries. A few key similarities here. First, the battery issue now, just like the keyboard design in the 1870s, lacks standardization and there is a multitude of alternative designs. TSLA itself has used and is still using multiple cell designs (18650, 2170, and more recently 4680), and it is unlikely that the EV industry will reach a standardization agreement anytime soon.Second, the battery issue is crucial to the EV industry, just like the keyboard design is to the typewriter industry. We will elaborate more on the importance later.Third, the winner does not have to be the \"best\" design, just like in the typewriter case. Many readers try to analyze the technical superiority of battery design A vs B. But the matter of fact is that in a highly nonlinear and dynamic market, many factors besides technical superiority contribute and convolute. Furthermore, once dominance is established, it sticks. The QWERTY keyboard in a sense is the least efficient design for modern computers, but this does not stop it from being the standard keyboard today when jamming the keys is a concern at all.TSLA's Battery PlanLet's discuss the crucial role of the battery issue in the EV industry. Simply put, it is the bottleneck issue. In my view, our EV problem equals a battery problem. TSLA (and other EV players too) recognized the issue a long time ago. For example, back in its 2020 Battery Day presentation, TSLA announced a battery plan to improve design, build its own cells, and better integrate the cells into the vehicle.TSLA Investor PresentationFast-forward to 2022, TSLA celebrated its one-millionth 4680 cell production earlier in the year, as you can see from the following Twitter message sent out by Elon Musk. It's a baby step, admittedly. Each Model Y needs about 1k of these cells. So 1 million 4680 cells are only enough for about 1,000 Model Ys. But it is a good start. Because the next steps can be so nonlinear that a small step can create far-fetching ripple effects, as discussed next.TSLA Official TwitterNonlinear Effects of BatteryFirst, some technical background. Compared to the earlier 2170 cells, each 4680 cell is about 5x large in volume and can, therefore, hold about 5x the energy of each 2170 cell. Regarding the 4680 cells, a common comment from readers to my other battery article involves a zero-sum counter-argument. Since each 4680 cell is 5x larger than 2170 cells in volume and only delivers 5x more energy, are they not the same? In terms of material cost, manufacturing cost, weight, et al?My answer is no because of the second-order effects. Not all the components scale equally. For example, the weight of the steel casings is less in the 4680 which would allow greater amounts of active components (it has to do with the surface area/volume ratio, a detail best left for the comment section). Furthermore, 5x more energy means 5x fewer numbers of cells used per vehicle. When the number of cells decreases, the use of connectors, assemble difficulty, and logistics all decrease. In the end, the 4680 cells can deliver 6x the power (the distinction between energy and power is again best left for the comments) and boost the driving range by 16%.Then there are even higher-order effects and non-technical effects (well, maybe still technical, just beyond the range of battery technicalities). For example, the in-house production of 4680 cells can lead to more streamlined battery-vehicle integration. Further down the road, battery-software integration would be the next logical step toward driving range optimization and even autonomous driving.TSLA Investor PresentationFinal Thoughts and RisksIn my view, our EV problem is a battery problem. And the battery problem has the potential to create a win-take-all situation in the EV space, just like the QWERTY keyboard did for typewriters. These two situations share many similarities: notably the lack of standardization and the convolution of many non-technical factors. TSLA's in-house production of the 4680 cells is admittedly a small step on the battery front. But it creates the potential to trigger other high-order effects. I view it as a bullish catalyst, and it puts TSLA in a more advantageous position as a contender.TSLA faces many risks, both in terms of its batteries and beyond.It is currently facing supply chain constraints and rising costs (especially on raw materials and electronics for batteries). As a result, it has just announced significant increases of the prices of EVs with some models going up by as much as $6,000. Whether these price increases can work out successfully or not remains to be seen.Economies-of-scale is a limiting factor to reduce battery costs, and TSLA's 4680 cells have not reached this critical scale yet (far away from it). The earlier 18650 cells, for example, have taken billions of units produced to make them economically attractive to a wide range of producers and end-users.TSLA's vertical integration plan in the battery space also faces uncertainties and competition. On its 2020 Battery Day, TSLA announced its planned entry into lithium mining. The plan was to start with buying lithium claims on 10,000 acres in Nevada. But nothing has really happened so far (while other players including Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) (BRK.B) have been actively developing lithium extraction techniques and facilities). AndMusk Twittedrecently about \"actually\" getting on with this (the emphases were added by me):\"Price of lithium has gone to insane levels! Teslamight actually have toget into the mining and refining directly at scale, unless costs improve. There is no shortage of the element itself, as lithium is almost everywhere on Earth, but pace of extraction/refinement is slow.\"","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":397,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9049617936,"gmtCreate":1655783257125,"gmtModify":1676535704836,"author":{"id":"4106869274809420","authorId":"4106869274809420","name":"glitterstar9","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a4d54b6823ec8a9a708c9ac3e2e5ea8d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4106869274809420","idStr":"4106869274809420"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Granny state.&nbsp;&nbsp;[Cool]&nbsp;","listText":"Granny state.&nbsp;&nbsp;[Cool]&nbsp;","text":"Granny state. [Cool]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9049617936","repostId":"1195032811","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":395,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}