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2022-03-14
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本周美联储靴子落地,可以抄底了吗?
Go to Tiger App to see more news
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","listText":"Okay ","text":"Okay","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9032979835","repostId":"1191557560","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191557560","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"中国大陆领先的金融数据、信息和软件服务企业,总部位于上海陆家嘴金融中心。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Wind万得","id":"99","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68"},"pubTimestamp":1647238446,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1191557560?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-14 14:14","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"本周美联储靴子落地,可以抄底了吗?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191557560","media":"Wind万得","summary":"美联储加息之后,就是美股抄底之时?历史经验表明,美股在利率上升后将经历更大的波动,但这并不意味着牛市已经结束。事实上,根据LPL Financial的数据,在之前的8个加息周期中,标普500指数在每次","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote>美联储加息之后,就是美股抄底之时?历史经验表明,美股在利率上升后将经历更大的波动,但这并不意味着牛市已经结束。事实上,根据LPL Financial的数据,在之前的8个加息周期中,标普500指数在每次首次加息后的一年时间里都会有所上升。</blockquote><p>俄乌冲突叠加美联储加息预期,美股三大股指今年来走势非常弱,但是从另一面来看,短期急速下跌释放部分风险,反而让股指更具有吸引力,毕竟美股是YYDS。</p><p>三大股指中,以科技股为重的纳斯达克指数目前下跌幅度最大,年初至今下跌17.9%。标普500指数跌近12%,这在美股历史上最差开局排第四位,排在前三位的是2009、2020以及1935年,这三次分别对应全球金融危机、全球新冠爆发以及美国经济危机。但神奇的是,这三年到年末的时候标普500指数全部大幅上涨,这一次拭目以待。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9a1f4c3daebe6531bc63c89d464fc94\" tg-width=\"693\" tg-height=\"568\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>从市场情绪来看,现在全市场风险偏好迅速下降,和2008年、2015年类似,但是相较于2020年初的恐慌情绪还有一定距离。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a801f787feca93a0896535a1106f7d51\" tg-width=\"707\" tg-height=\"419\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>美银的恐慌指数也来到极度恐惧附近,而且已经持续了近两周。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b9054da0bdf5f02b31b06cd8baba3e52\" tg-width=\"756\" tg-height=\"378\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>对冲基金的恐慌性抛售在短期内也达到一个极端。近两周时间对冲基金的美股仓位下降3%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9de9be7eb59a648971081ccc69bbfe2a\" tg-width=\"536\" tg-height=\"402\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>另外美股市场的日内波动率也回到2020年初的水平,表明市场的恐慌情绪进一步扩散。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e1ecf8535511f48ae987dfe758ff2e3\" tg-width=\"796\" tg-height=\"542\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>历史经验表明,美股在利率上升后将经历更大的波动,但这并不意味着牛市已经结束。事实上,根据LPL Financial的数据,在之前的8个加息周期中,标普500指数在每次首次加息后的一年时间里都会有所上升。</p><p>本周,“超级央行周”拉开大幕,由美联储领衔,英国、日本以及巴西、土耳其、印尼均将公布利率决议。</p><p>3月17日(周四),美联储FOMC将公布利率决议、政策声明及经济预期,美联储主席鲍威尔也在此后将召开新闻发布会。</p><p>受到乌克兰局势不确定、欧美对俄制裁加码和大宗商品价格飙升等因素影响,整个金融市场可能会持续剧烈波动,预计美联储将会对加息持谨慎态度,今年可能不会在每次FOMC会议上加息,并且今年可能不会有单次50个基点的加息幅度。此外,经济学家还预计美联储点阵图将会显示今年加息四至五次。</p><p>不过,目前基金公司普遍对美股后市不太乐观。高盛继2月将年底标普500目标位由5100点下降至4900点后,其最新报告再度下调至4700点,主要理由是经济基本面将面临更多挑战,上市公司业绩增速低于预期。</p><p>华尔街不少经济学家预计,美国和全球经济近期有可能会出现滞涨,明年经济陷入衰退的概率达35%。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n本周美联储靴子落地,可以抄底了吗?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/99\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Wind万得 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-03-14 14:14</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote>美联储加息之后,就是美股抄底之时?历史经验表明,美股在利率上升后将经历更大的波动,但这并不意味着牛市已经结束。事实上,根据LPL Financial的数据,在之前的8个加息周期中,标普500指数在每次首次加息后的一年时间里都会有所上升。</blockquote><p>俄乌冲突叠加美联储加息预期,美股三大股指今年来走势非常弱,但是从另一面来看,短期急速下跌释放部分风险,反而让股指更具有吸引力,毕竟美股是YYDS。</p><p>三大股指中,以科技股为重的纳斯达克指数目前下跌幅度最大,年初至今下跌17.9%。标普500指数跌近12%,这在美股历史上最差开局排第四位,排在前三位的是2009、2020以及1935年,这三次分别对应全球金融危机、全球新冠爆发以及美国经济危机。但神奇的是,这三年到年末的时候标普500指数全部大幅上涨,这一次拭目以待。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9a1f4c3daebe6531bc63c89d464fc94\" tg-width=\"693\" tg-height=\"568\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>从市场情绪来看,现在全市场风险偏好迅速下降,和2008年、2015年类似,但是相较于2020年初的恐慌情绪还有一定距离。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a801f787feca93a0896535a1106f7d51\" tg-width=\"707\" tg-height=\"419\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>美银的恐慌指数也来到极度恐惧附近,而且已经持续了近两周。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b9054da0bdf5f02b31b06cd8baba3e52\" tg-width=\"756\" tg-height=\"378\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>对冲基金的恐慌性抛售在短期内也达到一个极端。近两周时间对冲基金的美股仓位下降3%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9de9be7eb59a648971081ccc69bbfe2a\" tg-width=\"536\" tg-height=\"402\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>另外美股市场的日内波动率也回到2020年初的水平,表明市场的恐慌情绪进一步扩散。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e1ecf8535511f48ae987dfe758ff2e3\" tg-width=\"796\" tg-height=\"542\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>历史经验表明,美股在利率上升后将经历更大的波动,但这并不意味着牛市已经结束。事实上,根据LPL Financial的数据,在之前的8个加息周期中,标普500指数在每次首次加息后的一年时间里都会有所上升。</p><p>本周,“超级央行周”拉开大幕,由美联储领衔,英国、日本以及巴西、土耳其、印尼均将公布利率决议。</p><p>3月17日(周四),美联储FOMC将公布利率决议、政策声明及经济预期,美联储主席鲍威尔也在此后将召开新闻发布会。</p><p>受到乌克兰局势不确定、欧美对俄制裁加码和大宗商品价格飙升等因素影响,整个金融市场可能会持续剧烈波动,预计美联储将会对加息持谨慎态度,今年可能不会在每次FOMC会议上加息,并且今年可能不会有单次50个基点的加息幅度。此外,经济学家还预计美联储点阵图将会显示今年加息四至五次。</p><p>不过,目前基金公司普遍对美股后市不太乐观。高盛继2月将年底标普500目标位由5100点下降至4900点后,其最新报告再度下调至4700点,主要理由是经济基本面将面临更多挑战,上市公司业绩增速低于预期。</p><p>华尔街不少经济学家预计,美国和全球经济近期有可能会出现滞涨,明年经济陷入衰退的概率达35%。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f6ec6e99c0c8b9feb7f296b78c65a54","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","UDOW":"道指三倍做多ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","DDM":"道指两倍做多ETF","DXD":"道指两倍做空ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","OEX":"标普100","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","DOG":"道指反向ETF","DJX":"1/100道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191557560","content_text":"美联储加息之后,就是美股抄底之时?历史经验表明,美股在利率上升后将经历更大的波动,但这并不意味着牛市已经结束。事实上,根据LPL Financial的数据,在之前的8个加息周期中,标普500指数在每次首次加息后的一年时间里都会有所上升。俄乌冲突叠加美联储加息预期,美股三大股指今年来走势非常弱,但是从另一面来看,短期急速下跌释放部分风险,反而让股指更具有吸引力,毕竟美股是YYDS。三大股指中,以科技股为重的纳斯达克指数目前下跌幅度最大,年初至今下跌17.9%。标普500指数跌近12%,这在美股历史上最差开局排第四位,排在前三位的是2009、2020以及1935年,这三次分别对应全球金融危机、全球新冠爆发以及美国经济危机。但神奇的是,这三年到年末的时候标普500指数全部大幅上涨,这一次拭目以待。从市场情绪来看,现在全市场风险偏好迅速下降,和2008年、2015年类似,但是相较于2020年初的恐慌情绪还有一定距离。美银的恐慌指数也来到极度恐惧附近,而且已经持续了近两周。对冲基金的恐慌性抛售在短期内也达到一个极端。近两周时间对冲基金的美股仓位下降3%。另外美股市场的日内波动率也回到2020年初的水平,表明市场的恐慌情绪进一步扩散。历史经验表明,美股在利率上升后将经历更大的波动,但这并不意味着牛市已经结束。事实上,根据LPL Financial的数据,在之前的8个加息周期中,标普500指数在每次首次加息后的一年时间里都会有所上升。本周,“超级央行周”拉开大幕,由美联储领衔,英国、日本以及巴西、土耳其、印尼均将公布利率决议。3月17日(周四),美联储FOMC将公布利率决议、政策声明及经济预期,美联储主席鲍威尔也在此后将召开新闻发布会。受到乌克兰局势不确定、欧美对俄制裁加码和大宗商品价格飙升等因素影响,整个金融市场可能会持续剧烈波动,预计美联储将会对加息持谨慎态度,今年可能不会在每次FOMC会议上加息,并且今年可能不会有单次50个基点的加息幅度。此外,经济学家还预计美联储点阵图将会显示今年加息四至五次。不过,目前基金公司普遍对美股后市不太乐观。高盛继2月将年底标普500目标位由5100点下降至4900点后,其最新报告再度下调至4700点,主要理由是经济基本面将面临更多挑战,上市公司业绩增速低于预期。华尔街不少经济学家预计,美国和全球经济近期有可能会出现滞涨,明年经济陷入衰退的概率达35%。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":141,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9032979835,"gmtCreate":1647268382722,"gmtModify":1676534210128,"author":{"id":"4108385087129530","authorId":"4108385087129530","name":"TH13","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6afe77192132f58ae7090fc03b76e05f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4108385087129530","authorIdStr":"4108385087129530"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Okay 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