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2023-06-01

A.I. more to read and careful to invest at this time. Things will change soon.

2023-04-28

Great ariticle, would you like to share it?

@愛吃辣的小老虎:趨勢派VS價值派，你是哪個派別?

2023-04-23

Very aggressive. she might have some other numbers to justify. Wait and watch.

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2023-04-23

As a AI company might have better prediction on their future. Believe in that?

ChatGPT: The Death Of C3.ai

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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Things will change soon.&nbsp;","listText":"A.I. more to read and careful to invest at this time. Things will change soon.&nbsp;","text":"A.I. more to read and careful to invest at this time. Things will change soon.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/182776959565856","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":287,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9947164313,"gmtCreate":1682687906233,"gmtModify":1682690198583,"author":{"id":"4110247617571482","authorId":"4110247617571482","name":"RamPillai","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a29f022c22b23ba59c95ef339590dd71","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4110247617571482","idStr":"4110247617571482"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9947164313","repostId":"9947165768","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9947165768,"gmtCreate":1682687606554,"gmtModify":1682687639372,"author":{"id":"4134020005550552","authorId":"4134020005550552","name":"愛吃辣的小老虎","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9ad2466c67d5dffe9ad61a7ccc0342a6","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4134020005550552","idStr":"4134020005550552"},"themes":[],"title":"趨勢派VS價值派，你是哪個派別?","htmlText":"按照投資風格劃分，追漲概念就是趨勢派，看重基本面見頂持有的就是價值派。趨勢派投資的代表人是威廉·歐奈爾，他憑藉“CANSLIM選股大法”闖蕩江湖，在20世紀70-80年代期間股票投資年收益率都超過了40%。作爲趨勢派的創始人，歐奈爾認爲選股最重要的原則是--不要唯價格論。他認爲過早介入只是浪費時間，並且很可能在股價築底階段的反覆拉鋸中被清洗出廠。威廉·歐奈爾對於買點的判斷，他會選擇在股價大跌並開始創出階段性新高的時候買入；對於賣點，他有7%的止損法則：股價下跌超過買入價的7%，就拋出止損，絕不猶豫。趨勢派投資的核心邏輯是小跌賣以規避單次大跌，升後買以求抓住單邊大升。趨勢派之問：股票相對現在要上升300%，期間必須經歷什麼？A、行業大發展B、企業大幅盈利C、先升20%。虎友們可以先思考一下這個問題，趨勢派會選擇什麼？答案很顯而易見。但趨勢派在實戰的過程中，經常會遇到價格震盪的情形。升起來觸及買入點買入，隨後就立刻跌下去，觸及賣點，這樣反覆走上了止損的路線，這也是趨勢投資的副作用。價值投資的代表人物巴菲特，讓我們熟知了價值投資這一派別，而不是讓價值投資單單的掌握在少數金融精英手裏。他的投資理念是去選擇經營穩健、財務狀況優秀、被市場低估的企業進行投資，最具代表性的案例就是1998年巴菲特收購百事公司的股票，當年百事可樂公司的股價被低估了50%。巴菲特價值投資的核心邏輯是以合適的價格去持有合適的股票，從而達到某個確定的盈利目的，強調公司價值，喜歡越跌越買。如何評估公司的價值是價值投資中最重要的一環。價值派之問：如果一支股票同時滿足3個條件:第一、連續5年企業淨利潤爲正且同比增速&gt;5%第二、上市時間大於7年第三、市值大於100億你認爲這支股票5年內上升的概率是多少？你會不會持有這支股票？價值派在實戰中的難點就在於怎麼判斷基本面向好，最簡單的是你可以把握行業趨勢去投資，複雜一點你","listText":"按照投資風格劃分，追漲概念就是趨勢派，看重基本面見頂持有的就是價值派。趨勢派投資的代表人是威廉·歐奈爾，他憑藉“CANSLIM選股大法”闖蕩江湖，在20世紀70-80年代期間股票投資年收益率都超過了40%。作爲趨勢派的創始人，歐奈爾認爲選股最重要的原則是--不要唯價格論。他認爲過早介入只是浪費時間，並且很可能在股價築底階段的反覆拉鋸中被清洗出廠。威廉·歐奈爾對於買點的判斷，他會選擇在股價大跌並開始創出階段性新高的時候買入；對於賣點，他有7%的止損法則：股價下跌超過買入價的7%，就拋出止損，絕不猶豫。趨勢派投資的核心邏輯是小跌賣以規避單次大跌，升後買以求抓住單邊大升。趨勢派之問：股票相對現在要上升300%，期間必須經歷什麼？A、行業大發展B、企業大幅盈利C、先升20%。虎友們可以先思考一下這個問題，趨勢派會選擇什麼？答案很顯而易見。但趨勢派在實戰的過程中，經常會遇到價格震盪的情形。升起來觸及買入點買入，隨後就立刻跌下去，觸及賣點，這樣反覆走上了止損的路線，這也是趨勢投資的副作用。價值投資的代表人物巴菲特，讓我們熟知了價值投資這一派別，而不是讓價值投資單單的掌握在少數金融精英手裏。他的投資理念是去選擇經營穩健、財務狀況優秀、被市場低估的企業進行投資，最具代表性的案例就是1998年巴菲特收購百事公司的股票，當年百事可樂公司的股價被低估了50%。巴菲特價值投資的核心邏輯是以合適的價格去持有合適的股票，從而達到某個確定的盈利目的，強調公司價值，喜歡越跌越買。如何評估公司的價值是價值投資中最重要的一環。價值派之問：如果一支股票同時滿足3個條件:第一、連續5年企業淨利潤爲正且同比增速&gt;5%第二、上市時間大於7年第三、市值大於100億你認爲這支股票5年內上升的概率是多少？你會不會持有這支股票？價值派在實戰中的難點就在於怎麼判斷基本面向好，最簡單的是你可以把握行業趨勢去投資，複雜一點你","text":"按照投資風格劃分，追漲概念就是趨勢派，看重基本面見頂持有的就是價值派。趨勢派投資的代表人是威廉·歐奈爾，他憑藉“CANSLIM選股大法”闖蕩江湖，在20世紀70-80年代期間股票投資年收益率都超過了40%。作爲趨勢派的創始人，歐奈爾認爲選股最重要的原則是--不要唯價格論。他認爲過早介入只是浪費時間，並且很可能在股價築底階段的反覆拉鋸中被清洗出廠。威廉·歐奈爾對於買點的判斷，他會選擇在股價大跌並開始創出階段性新高的時候買入；對於賣點，他有7%的止損法則：股價下跌超過買入價的7%，就拋出止損，絕不猶豫。趨勢派投資的核心邏輯是小跌賣以規避單次大跌，升後買以求抓住單邊大升。趨勢派之問：股票相對現在要上升300%，期間必須經歷什麼？A、行業大發展B、企業大幅盈利C、先升20%。虎友們可以先思考一下這個問題，趨勢派會選擇什麼？答案很顯而易見。但趨勢派在實戰的過程中，經常會遇到價格震盪的情形。升起來觸及買入點買入，隨後就立刻跌下去，觸及賣點，這樣反覆走上了止損的路線，這也是趨勢投資的副作用。價值投資的代表人物巴菲特，讓我們熟知了價值投資這一派別，而不是讓價值投資單單的掌握在少數金融精英手裏。他的投資理念是去選擇經營穩健、財務狀況優秀、被市場低估的企業進行投資，最具代表性的案例就是1998年巴菲特收購百事公司的股票，當年百事可樂公司的股價被低估了50%。巴菲特價值投資的核心邏輯是以合適的價格去持有合適的股票，從而達到某個確定的盈利目的，強調公司價值，喜歡越跌越買。如何評估公司的價值是價值投資中最重要的一環。價值派之問：如果一支股票同時滿足3個條件:第一、連續5年企業淨利潤爲正且同比增速>5%第二、上市時間大於7年第三、市值大於100億你認爲這支股票5年內上升的概率是多少？你會不會持有這支股票？價值派在實戰中的難點就在於怎麼判斷基本面向好，最簡單的是你可以把握行業趨勢去投資，複雜一點你","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f66152265b242110ac339e49fa871636","width":"1634","height":"1000"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b2e2c1c3ea048958e2964e21b8c21d0f","width":"1024","height":"460"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d04ca1e225b5f04a0bdafe4097382f24","width":"1298","height":"1267"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9947165768","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"subType":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":175,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9944724806,"gmtCreate":1682218534006,"gmtModify":1682221600536,"author":{"id":"4110247617571482","authorId":"4110247617571482","name":"RamPillai","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a29f022c22b23ba59c95ef339590dd71","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4110247617571482","idStr":"4110247617571482"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Very aggressive. she might have some other numbers to justify. Wait and watch.&nbsp;","listText":"Very aggressive. she might have some other numbers to justify. Wait and watch.&nbsp;","text":"Very aggressive. she might have some other numbers to justify. Wait and watch.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9944724806","repostId":"2329777000","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":94,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9944724165,"gmtCreate":1682218163157,"gmtModify":1682221600508,"author":{"id":"4110247617571482","authorId":"4110247617571482","name":"RamPillai","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a29f022c22b23ba59c95ef339590dd71","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4110247617571482","idStr":"4110247617571482"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"As a AI company might have better prediction on their future. &nbsp;Believe in that?&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"As a AI company might have better prediction on their future. &nbsp;Believe in that?&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"As a AI company might have better prediction on their future. Believe in that?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9944724165","repostId":"2329746249","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2329746249","pubTimestamp":1682070300,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2329746249?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-04-21 17:45","market":"us","language":"en","title":"ChatGPT: The Death Of C3.ai","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2329746249","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryGenerative AI will increase competition amongst applications, making it even more difficult f","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">Summary</h2><ul><li><p>Generative AI will increase competition amongst applications, making it even more difficult for C3.ai to gain traction in an already fragmented market.</p></li><li><p>C3.ai’s revenue concentration through Baker Hughes represents a significant risk, and C3.ai’s reliance on Baker Hughes has so far shown little sign of declining.</p></li><li><p>C3.ai is a meme stock, and the company is leaning into this with their pivot into enterprise search. The hype will die at some point, but this could take time.</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9949b6ab97fb6ed5ddd0bb40a7a6f007\" alt=\"da-kuk\" title=\"da-kuk\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"422\"/><span>da-kuk</span></p><p>C3.ai (NYSE:AI) is a service heavy machine learning application developer. Its business is highly dependent on customers who want to implement machine learning at scale, but do not have the necessary expertise to do so. While LLMs may appear to be a tailwind on the surface, they could actually represent an existential risk to companies like C3.ai, by increasing the productivity of developers and enabling non-technical employees to develop applications. C3.ai continues to trade on hype rather than substance, leaving the stock at risk of a significant pullback, although this situation could persist for a long-time.</p><h2>The Real Impact of Generative AI</h2><p>LLMs are able to write code and provide guidance on writing code, and these capabilities are likely to become increasingly sophisticated over time. These types of tools can be used to improve the productivity of developers or enable workers with little coding ability to develop their own applications. Generative AI is therefore likely to result in a proliferation of applications, developed both internally and by third-party vendors. While this may increase demand, it is also likely to crush prices, undermining the economics for suppliers. This could be particularly problematic for a company like C3.ai that charges customers enormous fees to implement solutions.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08c3f75298cf91b29e7c9053312f08a3\" alt=\"Figure 1: Potential Impact of Developer Productivity on Application Pricing (source: Created by author)\" title=\"Figure 1: Potential Impact of Developer Productivity on Application Pricing (source: Created by author)\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"444\"/><span>Figure 1: Potential Impact of Developer Productivity on Application Pricing (source: Created by author)</span></p><p>This type of phenomenon is not uncommon within software markets. A technology that causes a paradigm shift often causes market fragmentation, as it is difficult for incumbents to stay on top of developments across market segments. Once the pace of innovation normalizes, leaders are able to consolidate the market through M&amp;A or internal development. It is difficult to consider C3.ai a market leader or incumbent given its lack of traction in the market, but the company stands to lose as LLMs proliferate, along with other companies that are focused on end user applications and low-code / no-code software.</p><h2>C3.ai&#39;s Threats and Opportunities</h2><p>C3.ai believes that its software can serve as an orchestration system, enabling the company to benefit from innovation in other open source and proprietary software. Management has specifically pointed to functionality like:</p><ul><li><p>Machine learning</p></li><li><p>Virtualization</p></li><li><p>Encryption</p></li></ul><p>Management has also mentioned products, including:</p><ul><li><p>Databricks</p></li><li><p>Snowflake</p></li><li><p>Vertex AI</p></li><li><p>Amazon SageMaker</p></li><li><p>Azure ML</p></li><li><p>TensorFlow</p></li><li><p>Jupyter</p></li><li><p>Python</p></li></ul><p>While this could be considered supportive of C3.ai’s adoption in the short-run, it should also raise questions about the value the company actually provides. Longer-term, if these tools become more user friendly and/or AI makes these tools accessible to a broader audience, C3.ai may lose relevance.</p><p>C3.ai’s management discussed the use of LLMs in search on the third quarter earnings call, which was an interesting insight into how they think about the market. The way management discussed implementing LLMs makes it sound like they have made a fundamental breakthrough in computer science, when in reality it is basically just a user interface over a third-party algorithm and the customer&#39;s data. When asked about existing search products on the market, management didn’t even seem to be aware of existing products from companies like Elastic (ESTC). C3.ai’s management team doesn’t even really seem to understand what is the current state of the art technology, and yet are confidently asserting that they are the leaders. Elastic offers vector search and allows customers to embed LLMs in its search product. These types of models are proliferating rapidly, and as training costs decline their availability will only increase. It is difficult to see how any search product can really be differentiated just based on an LLM. It&#39;s not even really clear that LLMs give better search results than something like vector search, it is just that the results are presented in a more intuitive manner, albeit with potentially questionable accuracy.</p><p>On the business side, C3.ai is transitioning to a consumption-based pricing model, which management believes is going well. Response to the change from partners and potential customers has reportedly been enthusiastic. C3.ai reportedly has more than 290 qualified pilot opportunities in its pipeline. The meaning of this metric is somewhat difficult to parse though, as it seems likely that C3.ai is counting each opportunity within a single organization, inflating the number. The conversion of pilot programs to production is also reportedly progressing well, although this is yet to show up in the customer count. This could just be due to the fact that pilot programs have been expansion opportunities within existing customers, or because programs still haven’t matured to the point where C3.ai can count them as customers.</p><p>C3.ai has also expanded its partner ecosystem, which should help with sales and marketing. C3.ai’s partnership with Google Cloud has yielded a pipeline of 291 enterprise opportunities. C3.ai and AWS are currently pursuing 75 new opportunities, of which 41 appear highly qualified. C3.ai is also working with Azure and has established a strategic relationship with Booz Allen focused on providing solutions to the government defense and intelligence sectors. The DoD is already one of C3.ai’s larger customers, potentially making this relationship important.</p><p>Baker Hughes (BKR) also continues to be extremely important to C3.ai, contributing 28.9 million USD of related party revenue in the third quarter (approximately 43% of total revenue). There was also a large services contribution (8.6 million USD) from Baker Hughes in the third quarter with extremely high gross margins. Management attributed this to its skilled personnel and complex nature of the work. This seems somewhat strange though, particularly given the transaction was with a related party. 90% margins on services is highly unusual, even for highly skilled and critical services like cybersecurity.</p><h2>Financial Analysis</h2><p>Similar to a number of SaaS companies, C3.ai faced market weakness in the middle of 2022, which subsequently eased towards the end of the year and into early 2023. Management optimism has so far not translated to the company’s financial statements, although early guidance for the next financial year suggests a sharp acceleration in growth. Guidance is for fairly flat YoY revenue in the fourth quarter of FY2023 and around 30% revenue growth in FY2024. How much of this acceleration is attributable to headwinds from the business model transition easing versus an improvement in customer demand is unknown.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0725bfb09f9b9387165209295418121\" alt=\"Figure 2: C3.ai Revenue (source: Created by author using data from company reports)\" title=\"Figure 2: C3.ai Revenue (source: Created by author using data from company reports)\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\"/><span>Figure 2: C3.ai Revenue (source: Created by author using data from company reports)</span></p><p>C3.ai closed 27 deals during the third quarter, 17 of which were pilot deals under the consumption model. Despite this, the customer count only increased 8% YoY to 236 and was flat in the quarter. Management suggested that some of the new deals were with existing customers and some are trials which are still in the process of shifting into production. One of the primary reasons given by C3.ai for switching to a consumption model was that it would lower the barrier for customer adoption. C3.ai will need to start adding to its customer count significantly if investors are to maintain faith in the company.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/937741687e0bb3979a324151558b8078\" alt=\"Figure 3: C3.ai Customers (source: Created by author using data from C3.ai)\" title=\"Figure 3: C3.ai Customers (source: Created by author using data from C3.ai)\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\"/><span>Figure 3: C3.ai Customers (source: Created by author using data from C3.ai)</span></p><p>C3.ai’s gross margins are currently depressed due to the company’s use of pilots and this is expected to carry over into the fourth quarter of FY2023. This is because during the two quarter pilot period, customers receive unlimited run time and premium support resources to ensure the pilot is successful. Gross margins are expected to revert to their historical range as the percentage of pilot customers declines over time.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fce36ef467ba5d22b01ff98ad25a760b\" alt=\"Figure 4: C3.ai Gross Profit Margins (source: Created by author using data from company reports)\" title=\"Figure 4: C3.ai Gross Profit Margins (source: Created by author using data from company reports)\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\"/><span>Figure 4: C3.ai Gross Profit Margins (source: Created by author using data from company reports)</span></p><p>C3.ai continues to struggle with large operating losses, both due to depressed gross margins and high R&amp;D and sales and marketing expenses. If the transition to a consumption model is successful, C3.ai should start to realize some operating leverage in FY2024, helping to stem losses. Despite this, C3.ai is still likely at least a few years away from GAAP profitability.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0272e2eb5ab3ed4fc59305f676aee6e6\" alt=\"Figure 5: C3.ai Operating Profit Margins (source: Created by author using data from company reports)\" title=\"Figure 5: C3.ai Operating Profit Margins (source: Created by author using data from company reports)\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\"/><span>Figure 5: C3.ai Operating Profit Margins (source: Created by author using data from company reports)</span></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e529b99d74cbbc823b656d8b4a7b49a\" alt=\"Figure 6: C3.ai Operating Expenses (source: Created by author using data from C3.ai)\" title=\"Figure 6: C3.ai Operating Expenses (source: Created by author using data from C3.ai)\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\"/><span>Figure 6: C3.ai Operating Expenses (source: Created by author using data from C3.ai)</span></p><p>C3.ai job openings suggest that growth remains relatively soft, although it should be noted that C3.ai hired aggressively in 2021 and 2022 and is still growing into its current headcount.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c667ed4fa14a56146827473a40ffd02\" alt=\"Figure 7: C3.ai Job Openings (source: Revealera.com)\" title=\"Figure 7: C3.ai Job Openings (source: Revealera.com)\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"352\"/><span>Figure 7: C3.ai Job Openings (source: Revealera.com)</span></p><h2>Valuation</h2><p>For investors that believe that a large swathe of customers will choose to purchase “AI” applications off the shelf, rather than developing their own, now could be a good entry point into C3.ai. If growth accelerates over the next 12 months and interest rates decline, C3.ai’s valuation could increase substantially. If adoption of C3.ai’s products remains soft, the stock has significant downside though. The stock has been driven by ChatGPT hype over the last three months, which is something that has essentially no bearing on the company’s fundamental value.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4653c4c5d728307378e4e2f508bb753b\" alt=\"Figure 8: C3.ai Relative Valuation (source: Created by author using data from Seeking Alpha)\" title=\"Figure 8: C3.ai Relative Valuation (source: Created by author using data from Seeking Alpha)\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\"/><span>Figure 8: C3.ai Relative Valuation (source: Created by author using data from Seeking Alpha)</span></p><p><em>This article is written by </em><strong><em>Richard Durant</em></strong><em> for reference only. Please note the risks.</em></p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>ChatGPT: The Death Of C3.ai</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nChatGPT: The Death Of C3.ai\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-04-21 17:45 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4595225-chatgpt-the-death-of-c3ai><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryGenerative AI will increase competition amongst applications, making it even more difficult for C3.ai to gain traction in an already fragmented market.C3.ai’s revenue concentration through ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4595225-chatgpt-the-death-of-c3ai\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4023":"应用软件","BK4588":"碎股","BK4587":"ChatGPT概念","AI":"C3.ai, Inc.","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK4543":"AI","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4528":"SaaS概念"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4595225-chatgpt-the-death-of-c3ai","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2329746249","content_text":"SummaryGenerative AI will increase competition amongst applications, making it even more difficult for C3.ai to gain traction in an already fragmented market.C3.ai’s revenue concentration through Baker Hughes represents a significant risk, and C3.ai’s reliance on Baker Hughes has so far shown little sign of declining.C3.ai is a meme stock, and the company is leaning into this with their pivot into enterprise search. The hype will die at some point, but this could take time.da-kukC3.ai (NYSE:AI) is a service heavy machine learning application developer. Its business is highly dependent on customers who want to implement machine learning at scale, but do not have the necessary expertise to do so. While LLMs may appear to be a tailwind on the surface, they could actually represent an existential risk to companies like C3.ai, by increasing the productivity of developers and enabling non-technical employees to develop applications. C3.ai continues to trade on hype rather than substance, leaving the stock at risk of a significant pullback, although this situation could persist for a long-time.The Real Impact of Generative AILLMs are able to write code and provide guidance on writing code, and these capabilities are likely to become increasingly sophisticated over time. These types of tools can be used to improve the productivity of developers or enable workers with little coding ability to develop their own applications. Generative AI is therefore likely to result in a proliferation of applications, developed both internally and by third-party vendors. While this may increase demand, it is also likely to crush prices, undermining the economics for suppliers. This could be particularly problematic for a company like C3.ai that charges customers enormous fees to implement solutions.Figure 1: Potential Impact of Developer Productivity on Application Pricing (source: Created by author)This type of phenomenon is not uncommon within software markets. A technology that causes a paradigm shift often causes market fragmentation, as it is difficult for incumbents to stay on top of developments across market segments. Once the pace of innovation normalizes, leaders are able to consolidate the market through M&A or internal development. It is difficult to consider C3.ai a market leader or incumbent given its lack of traction in the market, but the company stands to lose as LLMs proliferate, along with other companies that are focused on end user applications and low-code / no-code software.C3.ai's Threats and OpportunitiesC3.ai believes that its software can serve as an orchestration system, enabling the company to benefit from innovation in other open source and proprietary software. Management has specifically pointed to functionality like:Machine learningVirtualizationEncryptionManagement has also mentioned products, including:DatabricksSnowflakeVertex AIAmazon SageMakerAzure MLTensorFlowJupyterPythonWhile this could be considered supportive of C3.ai’s adoption in the short-run, it should also raise questions about the value the company actually provides. Longer-term, if these tools become more user friendly and/or AI makes these tools accessible to a broader audience, C3.ai may lose relevance.C3.ai’s management discussed the use of LLMs in search on the third quarter earnings call, which was an interesting insight into how they think about the market. The way management discussed implementing LLMs makes it sound like they have made a fundamental breakthrough in computer science, when in reality it is basically just a user interface over a third-party algorithm and the customer's data. When asked about existing search products on the market, management didn’t even seem to be aware of existing products from companies like Elastic (ESTC). C3.ai’s management team doesn’t even really seem to understand what is the current state of the art technology, and yet are confidently asserting that they are the leaders. Elastic offers vector search and allows customers to embed LLMs in its search product. These types of models are proliferating rapidly, and as training costs decline their availability will only increase. It is difficult to see how any search product can really be differentiated just based on an LLM. It's not even really clear that LLMs give better search results than something like vector search, it is just that the results are presented in a more intuitive manner, albeit with potentially questionable accuracy.On the business side, C3.ai is transitioning to a consumption-based pricing model, which management believes is going well. Response to the change from partners and potential customers has reportedly been enthusiastic. C3.ai reportedly has more than 290 qualified pilot opportunities in its pipeline. The meaning of this metric is somewhat difficult to parse though, as it seems likely that C3.ai is counting each opportunity within a single organization, inflating the number. The conversion of pilot programs to production is also reportedly progressing well, although this is yet to show up in the customer count. This could just be due to the fact that pilot programs have been expansion opportunities within existing customers, or because programs still haven’t matured to the point where C3.ai can count them as customers.C3.ai has also expanded its partner ecosystem, which should help with sales and marketing. C3.ai’s partnership with Google Cloud has yielded a pipeline of 291 enterprise opportunities. C3.ai and AWS are currently pursuing 75 new opportunities, of which 41 appear highly qualified. C3.ai is also working with Azure and has established a strategic relationship with Booz Allen focused on providing solutions to the government defense and intelligence sectors. The DoD is already one of C3.ai’s larger customers, potentially making this relationship important.Baker Hughes (BKR) also continues to be extremely important to C3.ai, contributing 28.9 million USD of related party revenue in the third quarter (approximately 43% of total revenue). There was also a large services contribution (8.6 million USD) from Baker Hughes in the third quarter with extremely high gross margins. Management attributed this to its skilled personnel and complex nature of the work. This seems somewhat strange though, particularly given the transaction was with a related party. 90% margins on services is highly unusual, even for highly skilled and critical services like cybersecurity.Financial AnalysisSimilar to a number of SaaS companies, C3.ai faced market weakness in the middle of 2022, which subsequently eased towards the end of the year and into early 2023. Management optimism has so far not translated to the company’s financial statements, although early guidance for the next financial year suggests a sharp acceleration in growth. Guidance is for fairly flat YoY revenue in the fourth quarter of FY2023 and around 30% revenue growth in FY2024. How much of this acceleration is attributable to headwinds from the business model transition easing versus an improvement in customer demand is unknown.Figure 2: C3.ai Revenue (source: Created by author using data from company reports)C3.ai closed 27 deals during the third quarter, 17 of which were pilot deals under the consumption model. Despite this, the customer count only increased 8% YoY to 236 and was flat in the quarter. Management suggested that some of the new deals were with existing customers and some are trials which are still in the process of shifting into production. One of the primary reasons given by C3.ai for switching to a consumption model was that it would lower the barrier for customer adoption. C3.ai will need to start adding to its customer count significantly if investors are to maintain faith in the company.Figure 3: C3.ai Customers (source: Created by author using data from C3.ai)C3.ai’s gross margins are currently depressed due to the company’s use of pilots and this is expected to carry over into the fourth quarter of FY2023. This is because during the two quarter pilot period, customers receive unlimited run time and premium support resources to ensure the pilot is successful. Gross margins are expected to revert to their historical range as the percentage of pilot customers declines over time.Figure 4: C3.ai Gross Profit Margins (source: Created by author using data from company reports)C3.ai continues to struggle with large operating losses, both due to depressed gross margins and high R&D and sales and marketing expenses. If the transition to a consumption model is successful, C3.ai should start to realize some operating leverage in FY2024, helping to stem losses. Despite this, C3.ai is still likely at least a few years away from GAAP profitability.Figure 5: C3.ai Operating Profit Margins (source: Created by author using data from company reports)Figure 6: C3.ai Operating Expenses (source: Created by author using data from C3.ai)C3.ai job openings suggest that growth remains relatively soft, although it should be noted that C3.ai hired aggressively in 2021 and 2022 and is still growing into its current headcount.Figure 7: C3.ai Job Openings (source: Revealera.com)ValuationFor investors that believe that a large swathe of customers will choose to purchase “AI” applications off the shelf, rather than developing their own, now could be a good entry point into C3.ai. If growth accelerates over the next 12 months and interest rates decline, C3.ai’s valuation could increase substantially. If adoption of C3.ai’s products remains soft, the stock has significant downside though. The stock has been driven by ChatGPT hype over the last three months, which is something that has essentially no bearing on the company’s fundamental value.Figure 8: C3.ai Relative Valuation (source: Created by author using data from Seeking Alpha)This article is written by Richard Durant for reference only. Please note the risks.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":192,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":182776959565856,"gmtCreate":1685632351240,"gmtModify":1685634704261,"author":{"id":"4110247617571482","authorId":"4110247617571482","name":"RamPillai","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a29f022c22b23ba59c95ef339590dd71","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4110247617571482","authorIdStr":"4110247617571482"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"A.I. more to read and careful to invest at this time. Things will change soon.&nbsp;","listText":"A.I. more to read and careful to invest at this time. Things will change soon.&nbsp;","text":"A.I. more to read and careful to invest at this time. Things will change soon.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/182776959565856","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":287,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9947164313,"gmtCreate":1682687906233,"gmtModify":1682690198583,"author":{"id":"4110247617571482","authorId":"4110247617571482","name":"RamPillai","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a29f022c22b23ba59c95ef339590dd71","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4110247617571482","authorIdStr":"4110247617571482"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9947164313","repostId":"9947165768","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9947165768,"gmtCreate":1682687606554,"gmtModify":1682687639372,"author":{"id":"4134020005550552","authorId":"4134020005550552","name":"愛吃辣的小老虎","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9ad2466c67d5dffe9ad61a7ccc0342a6","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4134020005550552","authorIdStr":"4134020005550552"},"themes":[],"title":"趨勢派VS價值派，你是哪個派別?","htmlText":"按照投資風格劃分，追漲概念就是趨勢派，看重基本面見頂持有的就是價值派。趨勢派投資的代表人是威廉·歐奈爾，他憑藉“CANSLIM選股大法”闖蕩江湖，在20世紀70-80年代期間股票投資年收益率都超過了40%。作爲趨勢派的創始人，歐奈爾認爲選股最重要的原則是--不要唯價格論。他認爲過早介入只是浪費時間，並且很可能在股價築底階段的反覆拉鋸中被清洗出廠。威廉·歐奈爾對於買點的判斷，他會選擇在股價大跌並開始創出階段性新高的時候買入；對於賣點，他有7%的止損法則：股價下跌超過買入價的7%，就拋出止損，絕不猶豫。趨勢派投資的核心邏輯是小跌賣以規避單次大跌，升後買以求抓住單邊大升。趨勢派之問：股票相對現在要上升300%，期間必須經歷什麼？A、行業大發展B、企業大幅盈利C、先升20%。虎友們可以先思考一下這個問題，趨勢派會選擇什麼？答案很顯而易見。但趨勢派在實戰的過程中，經常會遇到價格震盪的情形。升起來觸及買入點買入，隨後就立刻跌下去，觸及賣點，這樣反覆走上了止損的路線，這也是趨勢投資的副作用。價值投資的代表人物巴菲特，讓我們熟知了價值投資這一派別，而不是讓價值投資單單的掌握在少數金融精英手裏。他的投資理念是去選擇經營穩健、財務狀況優秀、被市場低估的企業進行投資，最具代表性的案例就是1998年巴菲特收購百事公司的股票，當年百事可樂公司的股價被低估了50%。巴菲特價值投資的核心邏輯是以合適的價格去持有合適的股票，從而達到某個確定的盈利目的，強調公司價值，喜歡越跌越買。如何評估公司的價值是價值投資中最重要的一環。價值派之問：如果一支股票同時滿足3個條件:第一、連續5年企業淨利潤爲正且同比增速&gt;5%第二、上市時間大於7年第三、市值大於100億你認爲這支股票5年內上升的概率是多少？你會不會持有這支股票？價值派在實戰中的難點就在於怎麼判斷基本面向好，最簡單的是你可以把握行業趨勢去投資，複雜一點你","listText":"按照投資風格劃分，追漲概念就是趨勢派，看重基本面見頂持有的就是價值派。趨勢派投資的代表人是威廉·歐奈爾，他憑藉“CANSLIM選股大法”闖蕩江湖，在20世紀70-80年代期間股票投資年收益率都超過了40%。作爲趨勢派的創始人，歐奈爾認爲選股最重要的原則是--不要唯價格論。他認爲過早介入只是浪費時間，並且很可能在股價築底階段的反覆拉鋸中被清洗出廠。威廉·歐奈爾對於買點的判斷，他會選擇在股價大跌並開始創出階段性新高的時候買入；對於賣點，他有7%的止損法則：股價下跌超過買入價的7%，就拋出止損，絕不猶豫。趨勢派投資的核心邏輯是小跌賣以規避單次大跌，升後買以求抓住單邊大升。趨勢派之問：股票相對現在要上升300%，期間必須經歷什麼？A、行業大發展B、企業大幅盈利C、先升20%。虎友們可以先思考一下這個問題，趨勢派會選擇什麼？答案很顯而易見。但趨勢派在實戰的過程中，經常會遇到價格震盪的情形。升起來觸及買入點買入，隨後就立刻跌下去，觸及賣點，這樣反覆走上了止損的路線，這也是趨勢投資的副作用。價值投資的代表人物巴菲特，讓我們熟知了價值投資這一派別，而不是讓價值投資單單的掌握在少數金融精英手裏。他的投資理念是去選擇經營穩健、財務狀況優秀、被市場低估的企業進行投資，最具代表性的案例就是1998年巴菲特收購百事公司的股票，當年百事可樂公司的股價被低估了50%。巴菲特價值投資的核心邏輯是以合適的價格去持有合適的股票，從而達到某個確定的盈利目的，強調公司價值，喜歡越跌越買。如何評估公司的價值是價值投資中最重要的一環。價值派之問：如果一支股票同時滿足3個條件:第一、連續5年企業淨利潤爲正且同比增速&gt;5%第二、上市時間大於7年第三、市值大於100億你認爲這支股票5年內上升的概率是多少？你會不會持有這支股票？價值派在實戰中的難點就在於怎麼判斷基本面向好，最簡單的是你可以把握行業趨勢去投資，複雜一點你","text":"按照投資風格劃分，追漲概念就是趨勢派，看重基本面見頂持有的就是價值派。趨勢派投資的代表人是威廉·歐奈爾，他憑藉“CANSLIM選股大法”闖蕩江湖，在20世紀70-80年代期間股票投資年收益率都超過了40%。作爲趨勢派的創始人，歐奈爾認爲選股最重要的原則是--不要唯價格論。他認爲過早介入只是浪費時間，並且很可能在股價築底階段的反覆拉鋸中被清洗出廠。威廉·歐奈爾對於買點的判斷，他會選擇在股價大跌並開始創出階段性新高的時候買入；對於賣點，他有7%的止損法則：股價下跌超過買入價的7%，就拋出止損，絕不猶豫。趨勢派投資的核心邏輯是小跌賣以規避單次大跌，升後買以求抓住單邊大升。趨勢派之問：股票相對現在要上升300%，期間必須經歷什麼？A、行業大發展B、企業大幅盈利C、先升20%。虎友們可以先思考一下這個問題，趨勢派會選擇什麼？答案很顯而易見。但趨勢派在實戰的過程中，經常會遇到價格震盪的情形。升起來觸及買入點買入，隨後就立刻跌下去，觸及賣點，這樣反覆走上了止損的路線，這也是趨勢投資的副作用。價值投資的代表人物巴菲特，讓我們熟知了價值投資這一派別，而不是讓價值投資單單的掌握在少數金融精英手裏。他的投資理念是去選擇經營穩健、財務狀況優秀、被市場低估的企業進行投資，最具代表性的案例就是1998年巴菲特收購百事公司的股票，當年百事可樂公司的股價被低估了50%。巴菲特價值投資的核心邏輯是以合適的價格去持有合適的股票，從而達到某個確定的盈利目的，強調公司價值，喜歡越跌越買。如何評估公司的價值是價值投資中最重要的一環。價值派之問：如果一支股票同時滿足3個條件:第一、連續5年企業淨利潤爲正且同比增速>5%第二、上市時間大於7年第三、市值大於100億你認爲這支股票5年內上升的概率是多少？你會不會持有這支股票？價值派在實戰中的難點就在於怎麼判斷基本面向好，最簡單的是你可以把握行業趨勢去投資，複雜一點你","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f66152265b242110ac339e49fa871636","width":"1634","height":"1000"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b2e2c1c3ea048958e2964e21b8c21d0f","width":"1024","height":"460"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d04ca1e225b5f04a0bdafe4097382f24","width":"1298","height":"1267"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9947165768","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"subType":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":175,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9944724806,"gmtCreate":1682218534006,"gmtModify":1682221600536,"author":{"id":"4110247617571482","authorId":"4110247617571482","name":"RamPillai","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a29f022c22b23ba59c95ef339590dd71","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4110247617571482","authorIdStr":"4110247617571482"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Very aggressive. she might have some other numbers to justify. Wait and watch.&nbsp;","listText":"Very aggressive. she might have some other numbers to justify. Wait and watch.&nbsp;","text":"Very aggressive. she might have some other numbers to justify. Wait and watch.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9944724806","repostId":"2329777000","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2329777000","pubTimestamp":1682067627,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2329777000?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-04-21 17:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Cathie Wood Puts a $2,000 Price Target on Tesla for 2027, Driven By Robotaxis","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2329777000","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Cathie Wood's ARK Invest issued a new price target on Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) that would value the EV ma","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Cathie Wood&#39;s ARK Invest issued a new price target on Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) that would value the EV maker at more than $6T in fewer than four years.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/10eaa0a0e6b9272c3ae0590c53edc5a1\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\"/></p><p>ARK issued a report late Thursday, a day after Tesla&#39;s (TSLA) disappointing quarterly results, that valued the company at $2,000 per share by 2027 as the base case.</p><p>The target is bookended by a 25% chance of a bear case where TSLA hits $1,400 or less in 2027 and a 25% chance of a bull case where it reaches $2,500 per share or more.</p><p>The $2,000 target would value Tesla (TSLA) at about $6.34T, compared with the current market cap of $516.6B. Tesla (TSLA) shares fell 10% on Thursday on margin worries following price cuts through this year.</p><p>TSLA is the largest holding in Wood&#39;s flagship ARKK Innovation ETF (NYSEARCA:ARKK).</p><p>“We want Tesla to scale its units because each one of them now represents the potential for a robotaxi, or a robotaxi fleet,&#34; Wood said on CNBC.</p><p>“The robotaxi service is going to be, from a margin point of view, more like a SAAS business and so we think that it is very smart to maximize unit because they have so much option value now,” she added.</p><p>“Tesla’s prospective robotaxi business line is a key driver, contributing 58% of expected enterprise value and 45% of expected EBITDA in 2027,” ARK analysts said in their report. “Across our simulation set, electric vehicles account for 62% of revenues in 2027, at substantially lower margins than robotaxi revenue.”</p><p>Not surprisingly, Wood added TSLA shares to ARKK on the dip last night, buying 219,810 shares to bring it to 0.4799% of the portfolio. ARK also added 36,213 shares to the ARK Next Generation Internet fund (ARKW), bringing that to 0.4827% of the portfolio.</p><p>TSLA is down 50% from a year ago, but has gained about 50% year to date. ARKK is down 33% in the past year and up 23% year to date. ARKW fell 34% in a year and is up 32% in 2023.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Cathie Wood Puts a $2,000 Price Target on Tesla for 2027, Driven By Robotaxis</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCathie Wood Puts a $2,000 Price Target on Tesla for 2027, Driven By Robotaxis\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-04-21 17:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/news/3958571-cathie-wood-puts-a-2000-price-target-on-tesla-for-2027-driven-by-robotaxis><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Cathie Wood's ARK Invest issued a new price target on Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) that would value the EV maker at more than $6T in fewer than four years.ARK issued a report late Thursday, a day after Tesla's...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3958571-cathie-wood-puts-a-2000-price-target-on-tesla-for-2027-driven-by-robotaxis\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU1429558221.USD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity RA USD","LU1839511570.USD":"WELLS FARGO GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元","BK4581":"高盛持仓","TSLA":"特斯拉","LU0823411888.USD":"法巴消费创新基金 Cap","LU1435385759.SGD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity RA SGD-H","LU0082616367.USD":"摩根大通美国科技A（dist）","LU1551013342.USD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS USD","LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","BK4099":"汽车制造商","BK4511":"特斯拉概念","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0719512351.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Technology A (acc) SGD","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","LU0234572021.USD":"高盛美国核心股票组合Acc","LU0820561909.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AM\" (HKD) INC","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2249611893.SGD":"BNP PARIBAS ENERGY TRANSITION \"CRH\" (SGD) ACC","LU2063271972.USD":"富兰克林创新领域基金","LU0823414478.USD":"法巴经典能源转换基金","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","LU2326559502.SGD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity P/A SGD-H","LU0689472784.USD":"安联收益及增长基金Cl AM AT Acc","BK4544":"ARK ETF合集","LU1852331112.SGD":"Blackrock World Technology Fund A2 SGD-H","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4555":"新能源车","LU1720051017.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence AT Acc H2-SGD","LU0198837287.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - USA GROWTH \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU0316494557.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL FUNDAMENTAL STRATEGIES \"A\" ACC","LU1861215975.USD":"贝莱德新一代科技基金 A2","LU1548497426.USD":"安联环球人工智能AT Acc","LU1861220033.SGD":"Blackrock Next Generation Technology A2 SGD-H","LU1861558580.USD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B","LU0820561818.USD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金Cl AM DIS","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","BK4527":"明星科技股","LU1551013425.SGD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS H2-SGD","BK4588":"碎股","LU0348723411.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL HI-TECH GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","BK4574":"无人驾驶","LU1720051108.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","LU2357305700.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence ET H2-SGD"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3958571-cathie-wood-puts-a-2000-price-target-on-tesla-for-2027-driven-by-robotaxis","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2329777000","content_text":"Cathie Wood's ARK Invest issued a new price target on Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) that would value the EV maker at more than $6T in fewer than four years.ARK issued a report late Thursday, a day after Tesla's (TSLA) disappointing quarterly results, that valued the company at $2,000 per share by 2027 as the base case.The target is bookended by a 25% chance of a bear case where TSLA hits $1,400 or less in 2027 and a 25% chance of a bull case where it reaches $2,500 per share or more.The $2,000 target would value Tesla (TSLA) at about $6.34T, compared with the current market cap of $516.6B. Tesla (TSLA) shares fell 10% on Thursday on margin worries following price cuts through this year.TSLA is the largest holding in Wood's flagship ARKK Innovation ETF (NYSEARCA:ARKK).“We want Tesla to scale its units because each one of them now represents the potential for a robotaxi, or a robotaxi fleet,\" Wood said on CNBC.“The robotaxi service is going to be, from a margin point of view, more like a SAAS business and so we think that it is very smart to maximize unit because they have so much option value now,” she added.“Tesla’s prospective robotaxi business line is a key driver, contributing 58% of expected enterprise value and 45% of expected EBITDA in 2027,” ARK analysts said in their report. “Across our simulation set, electric vehicles account for 62% of revenues in 2027, at substantially lower margins than robotaxi revenue.”Not surprisingly, Wood added TSLA shares to ARKK on the dip last night, buying 219,810 shares to bring it to 0.4799% of the portfolio. ARK also added 36,213 shares to the ARK Next Generation Internet fund (ARKW), bringing that to 0.4827% of the portfolio.TSLA is down 50% from a year ago, but has gained about 50% year to date. ARKK is down 33% in the past year and up 23% year to date. ARKW fell 34% in a year and is up 32% in 2023.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":94,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9944724165,"gmtCreate":1682218163157,"gmtModify":1682221600508,"author":{"id":"4110247617571482","authorId":"4110247617571482","name":"RamPillai","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a29f022c22b23ba59c95ef339590dd71","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4110247617571482","authorIdStr":"4110247617571482"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"As a AI company might have better prediction on their future. &nbsp;Believe in that?&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"As a AI company might have better prediction on their future. &nbsp;Believe in that?&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"As a AI company might have better prediction on their future. Believe in that?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9944724165","repostId":"2329746249","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2329746249","pubTimestamp":1682070300,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2329746249?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-04-21 17:45","market":"us","language":"en","title":"ChatGPT: The Death Of C3.ai","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2329746249","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryGenerative AI will increase competition amongst applications, making it even more difficult f","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">Summary</h2><ul><li><p>Generative AI will increase competition amongst applications, making it even more difficult for C3.ai to gain traction in an already fragmented market.</p></li><li><p>C3.ai’s revenue concentration through Baker Hughes represents a significant risk, and C3.ai’s reliance on Baker Hughes has so far shown little sign of declining.</p></li><li><p>C3.ai is a meme stock, and the company is leaning into this with their pivot into enterprise search. The hype will die at some point, but this could take time.</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9949b6ab97fb6ed5ddd0bb40a7a6f007\" alt=\"da-kuk\" title=\"da-kuk\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"422\"/><span>da-kuk</span></p><p>C3.ai (NYSE:AI) is a service heavy machine learning application developer. Its business is highly dependent on customers who want to implement machine learning at scale, but do not have the necessary expertise to do so. While LLMs may appear to be a tailwind on the surface, they could actually represent an existential risk to companies like C3.ai, by increasing the productivity of developers and enabling non-technical employees to develop applications. C3.ai continues to trade on hype rather than substance, leaving the stock at risk of a significant pullback, although this situation could persist for a long-time.</p><h2>The Real Impact of Generative AI</h2><p>LLMs are able to write code and provide guidance on writing code, and these capabilities are likely to become increasingly sophisticated over time. These types of tools can be used to improve the productivity of developers or enable workers with little coding ability to develop their own applications. Generative AI is therefore likely to result in a proliferation of applications, developed both internally and by third-party vendors. While this may increase demand, it is also likely to crush prices, undermining the economics for suppliers. This could be particularly problematic for a company like C3.ai that charges customers enormous fees to implement solutions.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08c3f75298cf91b29e7c9053312f08a3\" alt=\"Figure 1: Potential Impact of Developer Productivity on Application Pricing (source: Created by author)\" title=\"Figure 1: Potential Impact of Developer Productivity on Application Pricing (source: Created by author)\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"444\"/><span>Figure 1: Potential Impact of Developer Productivity on Application Pricing (source: Created by author)</span></p><p>This type of phenomenon is not uncommon within software markets. A technology that causes a paradigm shift often causes market fragmentation, as it is difficult for incumbents to stay on top of developments across market segments. Once the pace of innovation normalizes, leaders are able to consolidate the market through M&amp;A or internal development. It is difficult to consider C3.ai a market leader or incumbent given its lack of traction in the market, but the company stands to lose as LLMs proliferate, along with other companies that are focused on end user applications and low-code / no-code software.</p><h2>C3.ai&#39;s Threats and Opportunities</h2><p>C3.ai believes that its software can serve as an orchestration system, enabling the company to benefit from innovation in other open source and proprietary software. Management has specifically pointed to functionality like:</p><ul><li><p>Machine learning</p></li><li><p>Virtualization</p></li><li><p>Encryption</p></li></ul><p>Management has also mentioned products, including:</p><ul><li><p>Databricks</p></li><li><p>Snowflake</p></li><li><p>Vertex AI</p></li><li><p>Amazon SageMaker</p></li><li><p>Azure ML</p></li><li><p>TensorFlow</p></li><li><p>Jupyter</p></li><li><p>Python</p></li></ul><p>While this could be considered supportive of C3.ai’s adoption in the short-run, it should also raise questions about the value the company actually provides. Longer-term, if these tools become more user friendly and/or AI makes these tools accessible to a broader audience, C3.ai may lose relevance.</p><p>C3.ai’s management discussed the use of LLMs in search on the third quarter earnings call, which was an interesting insight into how they think about the market. The way management discussed implementing LLMs makes it sound like they have made a fundamental breakthrough in computer science, when in reality it is basically just a user interface over a third-party algorithm and the customer&#39;s data. When asked about existing search products on the market, management didn’t even seem to be aware of existing products from companies like Elastic (ESTC). C3.ai’s management team doesn’t even really seem to understand what is the current state of the art technology, and yet are confidently asserting that they are the leaders. Elastic offers vector search and allows customers to embed LLMs in its search product. These types of models are proliferating rapidly, and as training costs decline their availability will only increase. It is difficult to see how any search product can really be differentiated just based on an LLM. It&#39;s not even really clear that LLMs give better search results than something like vector search, it is just that the results are presented in a more intuitive manner, albeit with potentially questionable accuracy.</p><p>On the business side, C3.ai is transitioning to a consumption-based pricing model, which management believes is going well. Response to the change from partners and potential customers has reportedly been enthusiastic. C3.ai reportedly has more than 290 qualified pilot opportunities in its pipeline. The meaning of this metric is somewhat difficult to parse though, as it seems likely that C3.ai is counting each opportunity within a single organization, inflating the number. The conversion of pilot programs to production is also reportedly progressing well, although this is yet to show up in the customer count. This could just be due to the fact that pilot programs have been expansion opportunities within existing customers, or because programs still haven’t matured to the point where C3.ai can count them as customers.</p><p>C3.ai has also expanded its partner ecosystem, which should help with sales and marketing. C3.ai’s partnership with Google Cloud has yielded a pipeline of 291 enterprise opportunities. C3.ai and AWS are currently pursuing 75 new opportunities, of which 41 appear highly qualified. C3.ai is also working with Azure and has established a strategic relationship with Booz Allen focused on providing solutions to the government defense and intelligence sectors. The DoD is already one of C3.ai’s larger customers, potentially making this relationship important.</p><p>Baker Hughes (BKR) also continues to be extremely important to C3.ai, contributing 28.9 million USD of related party revenue in the third quarter (approximately 43% of total revenue). There was also a large services contribution (8.6 million USD) from Baker Hughes in the third quarter with extremely high gross margins. Management attributed this to its skilled personnel and complex nature of the work. This seems somewhat strange though, particularly given the transaction was with a related party. 90% margins on services is highly unusual, even for highly skilled and critical services like cybersecurity.</p><h2>Financial Analysis</h2><p>Similar to a number of SaaS companies, C3.ai faced market weakness in the middle of 2022, which subsequently eased towards the end of the year and into early 2023. Management optimism has so far not translated to the company’s financial statements, although early guidance for the next financial year suggests a sharp acceleration in growth. Guidance is for fairly flat YoY revenue in the fourth quarter of FY2023 and around 30% revenue growth in FY2024. How much of this acceleration is attributable to headwinds from the business model transition easing versus an improvement in customer demand is unknown.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0725bfb09f9b9387165209295418121\" alt=\"Figure 2: C3.ai Revenue (source: Created by author using data from company reports)\" title=\"Figure 2: C3.ai Revenue (source: Created by author using data from company reports)\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\"/><span>Figure 2: C3.ai Revenue (source: Created by author using data from company reports)</span></p><p>C3.ai closed 27 deals during the third quarter, 17 of which were pilot deals under the consumption model. Despite this, the customer count only increased 8% YoY to 236 and was flat in the quarter. Management suggested that some of the new deals were with existing customers and some are trials which are still in the process of shifting into production. One of the primary reasons given by C3.ai for switching to a consumption model was that it would lower the barrier for customer adoption. C3.ai will need to start adding to its customer count significantly if investors are to maintain faith in the company.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/937741687e0bb3979a324151558b8078\" alt=\"Figure 3: C3.ai Customers (source: Created by author using data from C3.ai)\" title=\"Figure 3: C3.ai Customers (source: Created by author using data from C3.ai)\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\"/><span>Figure 3: C3.ai Customers (source: Created by author using data from C3.ai)</span></p><p>C3.ai’s gross margins are currently depressed due to the company’s use of pilots and this is expected to carry over into the fourth quarter of FY2023. This is because during the two quarter pilot period, customers receive unlimited run time and premium support resources to ensure the pilot is successful. Gross margins are expected to revert to their historical range as the percentage of pilot customers declines over time.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fce36ef467ba5d22b01ff98ad25a760b\" alt=\"Figure 4: C3.ai Gross Profit Margins (source: Created by author using data from company reports)\" title=\"Figure 4: C3.ai Gross Profit Margins (source: Created by author using data from company reports)\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\"/><span>Figure 4: C3.ai Gross Profit Margins (source: Created by author using data from company reports)</span></p><p>C3.ai continues to struggle with large operating losses, both due to depressed gross margins and high R&amp;D and sales and marketing expenses. If the transition to a consumption model is successful, C3.ai should start to realize some operating leverage in FY2024, helping to stem losses. Despite this, C3.ai is still likely at least a few years away from GAAP profitability.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0272e2eb5ab3ed4fc59305f676aee6e6\" alt=\"Figure 5: C3.ai Operating Profit Margins (source: Created by author using data from company reports)\" title=\"Figure 5: C3.ai Operating Profit Margins (source: Created by author using data from company reports)\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\"/><span>Figure 5: C3.ai Operating Profit Margins (source: Created by author using data from company reports)</span></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e529b99d74cbbc823b656d8b4a7b49a\" alt=\"Figure 6: C3.ai Operating Expenses (source: Created by author using data from C3.ai)\" title=\"Figure 6: C3.ai Operating Expenses (source: Created by author using data from C3.ai)\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\"/><span>Figure 6: C3.ai Operating Expenses (source: Created by author using data from C3.ai)</span></p><p>C3.ai job openings suggest that growth remains relatively soft, although it should be noted that C3.ai hired aggressively in 2021 and 2022 and is still growing into its current headcount.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c667ed4fa14a56146827473a40ffd02\" alt=\"Figure 7: C3.ai Job Openings (source: Revealera.com)\" title=\"Figure 7: C3.ai Job Openings (source: Revealera.com)\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"352\"/><span>Figure 7: C3.ai Job Openings (source: Revealera.com)</span></p><h2>Valuation</h2><p>For investors that believe that a large swathe of customers will choose to purchase “AI” applications off the shelf, rather than developing their own, now could be a good entry point into C3.ai. If growth accelerates over the next 12 months and interest rates decline, C3.ai’s valuation could increase substantially. If adoption of C3.ai’s products remains soft, the stock has significant downside though. The stock has been driven by ChatGPT hype over the last three months, which is something that has essentially no bearing on the company’s fundamental value.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4653c4c5d728307378e4e2f508bb753b\" alt=\"Figure 8: C3.ai Relative Valuation (source: Created by author using data from Seeking Alpha)\" title=\"Figure 8: C3.ai Relative Valuation (source: Created by author using data from Seeking Alpha)\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\"/><span>Figure 8: C3.ai Relative Valuation (source: Created by author using data from Seeking Alpha)</span></p><p><em>This article is written by </em><strong><em>Richard Durant</em></strong><em> for reference only. Please note the risks.</em></p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>ChatGPT: The Death Of C3.ai</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nChatGPT: The Death Of C3.ai\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-04-21 17:45 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4595225-chatgpt-the-death-of-c3ai><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryGenerative AI will increase competition amongst applications, making it even more difficult for C3.ai to gain traction in an already fragmented market.C3.ai’s revenue concentration through ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4595225-chatgpt-the-death-of-c3ai\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4023":"应用软件","BK4588":"碎股","BK4587":"ChatGPT概念","AI":"C3.ai, Inc.","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK4543":"AI","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4528":"SaaS概念"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4595225-chatgpt-the-death-of-c3ai","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2329746249","content_text":"SummaryGenerative AI will increase competition amongst applications, making it even more difficult for C3.ai to gain traction in an already fragmented market.C3.ai’s revenue concentration through Baker Hughes represents a significant risk, and C3.ai’s reliance on Baker Hughes has so far shown little sign of declining.C3.ai is a meme stock, and the company is leaning into this with their pivot into enterprise search. The hype will die at some point, but this could take time.da-kukC3.ai (NYSE:AI) is a service heavy machine learning application developer. Its business is highly dependent on customers who want to implement machine learning at scale, but do not have the necessary expertise to do so. While LLMs may appear to be a tailwind on the surface, they could actually represent an existential risk to companies like C3.ai, by increasing the productivity of developers and enabling non-technical employees to develop applications. C3.ai continues to trade on hype rather than substance, leaving the stock at risk of a significant pullback, although this situation could persist for a long-time.The Real Impact of Generative AILLMs are able to write code and provide guidance on writing code, and these capabilities are likely to become increasingly sophisticated over time. These types of tools can be used to improve the productivity of developers or enable workers with little coding ability to develop their own applications. Generative AI is therefore likely to result in a proliferation of applications, developed both internally and by third-party vendors. While this may increase demand, it is also likely to crush prices, undermining the economics for suppliers. This could be particularly problematic for a company like C3.ai that charges customers enormous fees to implement solutions.Figure 1: Potential Impact of Developer Productivity on Application Pricing (source: Created by author)This type of phenomenon is not uncommon within software markets. A technology that causes a paradigm shift often causes market fragmentation, as it is difficult for incumbents to stay on top of developments across market segments. Once the pace of innovation normalizes, leaders are able to consolidate the market through M&A or internal development. It is difficult to consider C3.ai a market leader or incumbent given its lack of traction in the market, but the company stands to lose as LLMs proliferate, along with other companies that are focused on end user applications and low-code / no-code software.C3.ai's Threats and OpportunitiesC3.ai believes that its software can serve as an orchestration system, enabling the company to benefit from innovation in other open source and proprietary software. Management has specifically pointed to functionality like:Machine learningVirtualizationEncryptionManagement has also mentioned products, including:DatabricksSnowflakeVertex AIAmazon SageMakerAzure MLTensorFlowJupyterPythonWhile this could be considered supportive of C3.ai’s adoption in the short-run, it should also raise questions about the value the company actually provides. Longer-term, if these tools become more user friendly and/or AI makes these tools accessible to a broader audience, C3.ai may lose relevance.C3.ai’s management discussed the use of LLMs in search on the third quarter earnings call, which was an interesting insight into how they think about the market. The way management discussed implementing LLMs makes it sound like they have made a fundamental breakthrough in computer science, when in reality it is basically just a user interface over a third-party algorithm and the customer's data. When asked about existing search products on the market, management didn’t even seem to be aware of existing products from companies like Elastic (ESTC). C3.ai’s management team doesn’t even really seem to understand what is the current state of the art technology, and yet are confidently asserting that they are the leaders. Elastic offers vector search and allows customers to embed LLMs in its search product. These types of models are proliferating rapidly, and as training costs decline their availability will only increase. It is difficult to see how any search product can really be differentiated just based on an LLM. It's not even really clear that LLMs give better search results than something like vector search, it is just that the results are presented in a more intuitive manner, albeit with potentially questionable accuracy.On the business side, C3.ai is transitioning to a consumption-based pricing model, which management believes is going well. Response to the change from partners and potential customers has reportedly been enthusiastic. C3.ai reportedly has more than 290 qualified pilot opportunities in its pipeline. The meaning of this metric is somewhat difficult to parse though, as it seems likely that C3.ai is counting each opportunity within a single organization, inflating the number. The conversion of pilot programs to production is also reportedly progressing well, although this is yet to show up in the customer count. This could just be due to the fact that pilot programs have been expansion opportunities within existing customers, or because programs still haven’t matured to the point where C3.ai can count them as customers.C3.ai has also expanded its partner ecosystem, which should help with sales and marketing. C3.ai’s partnership with Google Cloud has yielded a pipeline of 291 enterprise opportunities. C3.ai and AWS are currently pursuing 75 new opportunities, of which 41 appear highly qualified. C3.ai is also working with Azure and has established a strategic relationship with Booz Allen focused on providing solutions to the government defense and intelligence sectors. The DoD is already one of C3.ai’s larger customers, potentially making this relationship important.Baker Hughes (BKR) also continues to be extremely important to C3.ai, contributing 28.9 million USD of related party revenue in the third quarter (approximately 43% of total revenue). There was also a large services contribution (8.6 million USD) from Baker Hughes in the third quarter with extremely high gross margins. Management attributed this to its skilled personnel and complex nature of the work. This seems somewhat strange though, particularly given the transaction was with a related party. 90% margins on services is highly unusual, even for highly skilled and critical services like cybersecurity.Financial AnalysisSimilar to a number of SaaS companies, C3.ai faced market weakness in the middle of 2022, which subsequently eased towards the end of the year and into early 2023. Management optimism has so far not translated to the company’s financial statements, although early guidance for the next financial year suggests a sharp acceleration in growth. Guidance is for fairly flat YoY revenue in the fourth quarter of FY2023 and around 30% revenue growth in FY2024. How much of this acceleration is attributable to headwinds from the business model transition easing versus an improvement in customer demand is unknown.Figure 2: C3.ai Revenue (source: Created by author using data from company reports)C3.ai closed 27 deals during the third quarter, 17 of which were pilot deals under the consumption model. Despite this, the customer count only increased 8% YoY to 236 and was flat in the quarter. Management suggested that some of the new deals were with existing customers and some are trials which are still in the process of shifting into production. One of the primary reasons given by C3.ai for switching to a consumption model was that it would lower the barrier for customer adoption. C3.ai will need to start adding to its customer count significantly if investors are to maintain faith in the company.Figure 3: C3.ai Customers (source: Created by author using data from C3.ai)C3.ai’s gross margins are currently depressed due to the company’s use of pilots and this is expected to carry over into the fourth quarter of FY2023. This is because during the two quarter pilot period, customers receive unlimited run time and premium support resources to ensure the pilot is successful. Gross margins are expected to revert to their historical range as the percentage of pilot customers declines over time.Figure 4: C3.ai Gross Profit Margins (source: Created by author using data from company reports)C3.ai continues to struggle with large operating losses, both due to depressed gross margins and high R&D and sales and marketing expenses. If the transition to a consumption model is successful, C3.ai should start to realize some operating leverage in FY2024, helping to stem losses. Despite this, C3.ai is still likely at least a few years away from GAAP profitability.Figure 5: C3.ai Operating Profit Margins (source: Created by author using data from company reports)Figure 6: C3.ai Operating Expenses (source: Created by author using data from C3.ai)C3.ai job openings suggest that growth remains relatively soft, although it should be noted that C3.ai hired aggressively in 2021 and 2022 and is still growing into its current headcount.Figure 7: C3.ai Job Openings (source: Revealera.com)ValuationFor investors that believe that a large swathe of customers will choose to purchase “AI” applications off the shelf, rather than developing their own, now could be a good entry point into C3.ai. If growth accelerates over the next 12 months and interest rates decline, C3.ai’s valuation could increase substantially. If adoption of C3.ai’s products remains soft, the stock has significant downside though. The stock has been driven by ChatGPT hype over the last three months, which is something that has essentially no bearing on the company’s fundamental value.Figure 8: C3.ai Relative Valuation (source: Created by author using data from Seeking Alpha)This article is written by Richard Durant for reference only. Please note the risks.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":192,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}