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2022-07-07

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Why a Rally in Growth Stocks Could Signal "Peak" Fed Hawkishness Has Passed

2022-07-06

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2022-07-06

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2022-07-04

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2022-07-01

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Micron's Weak Outlook Sparks Concerns of Chip Down Cycle

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Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1657149693,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2249546463?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-07 07:21","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why a Rally in Growth Stocks Could Signal \"Peak\" Fed Hawkishness Has Passed","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2249546463","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"If tech can sustain outperformance that will mean the market thinks the Fed has passed 'peak hawkish","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>If tech can sustain outperformance that will mean the market thinks the Fed has passed &#39;peak hawkishness,&#39; according to Sevens Report</p><p>Growth stocks have outperformed value equities recently as investors begin to question if the Federal Reserve has passed peak hawkishness already with its plans to raise rates to combat high inflation.</p><p>Recent bets on fed-funds futures have pointed toward a potential pivot back to rate cuts at some point next year, while 10-year yields on U.S. government debt have fallen below 3%. Corporate bond spreads have widened as recession worries bubble up. But thedecline in Treasury yields appears to be giving a lift to technology and other growth stocks over value-oriented equities.</p><p>&#34;While it&#39;s too early to declare the value outperformance &#39;over,&#39; we do think the outperformance of tech recently is notable, because if it continues that will be a strong signal that the market is now looking past future rates hikes towards eventual rate cuts in 2023,&#34; said Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, in a note Wednesday. &#34;If tech can mount sustained outperformance that will tell us the market thinks the Fed has passed &#39;peak hawkishness.&#39;&#34;</p><p>Long-term Treasury yields have been falling recently because investors are worried that the U.S. economy is slowing and &#34;a recession is a distinct possibility,&#34; said Tom Graff, head of investments at Facet Wealth, by phone.</p><p>The yield on the 10-year Treasury note jumped as high as about 3.482% in June, before falling Tuesday to 2.808%--the lowest since May 27 based on 3 p.m. Eastern Time levels, according to Dow Jones Market Data. That compares with a yield of about 1.5% at the end of 2021, when investors were anticipating that the Fed was gearing up to hike its benchmark rate to curb hot inflation.</p><p>The Fed raised its benchmark rate in March for the first time since 2018, lifting it a quarter percentage point from near zero while laying out plans for further increases as inflation was running at the hottest pace in 40 years. Since then, the central bank has become more hawkish, announcing larger rate hikes as the cost of living has remained stubbornly high.</p><p>That has made investors anxious that the Fed risks causing a recession by potentially being too aggressive to bring runaway inflation under control.</p><p>Read:Fed&#39;s Waller backs another jumbo 75 bp interest-rate hike in July</p><p>But now slowing growth has some investors questioning how long the Fed will continue on an aggressive path of monetary tightening, even though it began hiking rates just this year.</p><h2>Recession worries</h2><p>The yield curve spread between 10-year and 2-year Treasury rates briefly inverted on July 5 for the first time since mid-June, another sign that the U.S. may be facing a recession, although this time against a backdrop of declining rates, according to Graff. The yield curve was inverted on Wednesday afternoon, with two-year yields  slightly higher than 10-year rates , FactSet data show.</p><p>In Graff&#39;s view, the corporate bond market also has been flashing recession concerns.</p><p>&#34;Investment-grade corporate spreads are about as wide as they&#39;ve been any time&#34; outside of a  recession in the last 25 years, said Graff. That doesn&#39;t mean there&#39;s &#34;100% odds&#34; of an economic contraction, he said, &#34;but it&#39;s definitely clearly showing credit markets think there&#39;s a risk.&#34;</p><p>Spreads over Treasurys for high-yield debt, or junk bonds, have similarly increased, according to Graff.</p><p>&#34;U.S. corporate bond spreads continue to move higher even though 10-year Treasury yields peaked 3 weeks ago,&#34; said Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, in a note emailed July 6. &#34;Spreads tend to rise when markets are increasingly uncertain about future corporate cash flows, and that has been the case most of this year.&#34;</p><p>Investors worry about cash flows drying up in an economic slowdown as that may hinder companies from reinvesting in their businesses, or make it more difficult for cash-strapped borrowers to meet their financial obligations.</p><p>The U.S. stock market has sunk this year after a repricing of valuations that looked stretched as rates rose. Growth stocks, including shares of technology-related companies, have taken a steep drop in 2022.The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite plunged 29.5% during the first half of this year, while the S&amp;P 500 dropped 20.6%.</p><p>Growth stocks are particularly sensitive to rising rates as their anticipated cash flow streams are far out into the future. But with rates recently falling amid recession concerns, they&#39;ve recently been gaining ground after being trounced by value-style bets over a stretch that began late last year.</p><p>Since June 10, the Russell 1000 Growth Index  has eked out a gain of 0.5% through Wednesday,  while the Russell 1000 Value Index  dropped about 3.7% over the same period, FactSet data show.</p><p>Upcoming company earnings reports for the second quarter should give investors a &#34;clearer picture&#34; of what companies expect in terms of demand for their goods and services in the second half of 2022, as well as which direction stocks will be headed, according to Graff.</p><p>&#34;Some amount of earnings slowdown is priced in,&#34; he said of the equities market. &#34;In our view, if earnings are mildly lower in the second half but companies see them rebounding in &#39;23, that&#39;s probably a pretty good outcome for stocks.&#34;</p><p>In prior recessions, the average earnings drop for the S&amp;P 500 was 13%, with the global financial crisis, or GFC, skewing the results, according to Tony DeSpirito, BlackRock&#39;s chief investment officer for U.S. fundamental equities. A chart in his third-quarter outlook report illustrates this finding.</p><p>&#34;We are not calling for a recession, but we are cognizant that the risks of a recession are rising,&#34; DeSpirito said in the note. &#34;The Fed is tightening monetary policy, bringing an end to &#39;easy money&#39; policies,&#34; he said, while 30-year mortgage rates have about doubled since last year to nearly 6% today, inflation is starting to &#34;erode household savings&#34; and &#34;inventories of goods are elevated as both pandemic-induced supply shortages and voracious demand ease.&#34;</p><p>All three major U.S. stock benchmarks ended Wednesday higher after the release of minutes of the Fed&#39;s last policy meeting. The S&amp;P 500  gained 0.4%, while the Nasdaq Composite  rose 0.3% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average  edged up 0.2%, according to Dow Jones Market Data.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why a Rally in Growth Stocks Could Signal \"Peak\" Fed Hawkishness Has Passed</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy a Rally in Growth Stocks Could Signal \"Peak\" Fed Hawkishness Has Passed\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-07-07 07:21</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>If tech can sustain outperformance that will mean the market thinks the Fed has passed &#39;peak hawkishness,&#39; according to Sevens Report</p><p>Growth stocks have outperformed value equities recently as investors begin to question if the Federal Reserve has passed peak hawkishness already with its plans to raise rates to combat high inflation.</p><p>Recent bets on fed-funds futures have pointed toward a potential pivot back to rate cuts at some point next year, while 10-year yields on U.S. government debt have fallen below 3%. Corporate bond spreads have widened as recession worries bubble up. But thedecline in Treasury yields appears to be giving a lift to technology and other growth stocks over value-oriented equities.</p><p>&#34;While it&#39;s too early to declare the value outperformance &#39;over,&#39; we do think the outperformance of tech recently is notable, because if it continues that will be a strong signal that the market is now looking past future rates hikes towards eventual rate cuts in 2023,&#34; said Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, in a note Wednesday. &#34;If tech can mount sustained outperformance that will tell us the market thinks the Fed has passed &#39;peak hawkishness.&#39;&#34;</p><p>Long-term Treasury yields have been falling recently because investors are worried that the U.S. economy is slowing and &#34;a recession is a distinct possibility,&#34; said Tom Graff, head of investments at Facet Wealth, by phone.</p><p>The yield on the 10-year Treasury note jumped as high as about 3.482% in June, before falling Tuesday to 2.808%--the lowest since May 27 based on 3 p.m. Eastern Time levels, according to Dow Jones Market Data. That compares with a yield of about 1.5% at the end of 2021, when investors were anticipating that the Fed was gearing up to hike its benchmark rate to curb hot inflation.</p><p>The Fed raised its benchmark rate in March for the first time since 2018, lifting it a quarter percentage point from near zero while laying out plans for further increases as inflation was running at the hottest pace in 40 years. Since then, the central bank has become more hawkish, announcing larger rate hikes as the cost of living has remained stubbornly high.</p><p>That has made investors anxious that the Fed risks causing a recession by potentially being too aggressive to bring runaway inflation under control.</p><p>Read:Fed&#39;s Waller backs another jumbo 75 bp interest-rate hike in July</p><p>But now slowing growth has some investors questioning how long the Fed will continue on an aggressive path of monetary tightening, even though it began hiking rates just this year.</p><h2>Recession worries</h2><p>The yield curve spread between 10-year and 2-year Treasury rates briefly inverted on July 5 for the first time since mid-June, another sign that the U.S. may be facing a recession, although this time against a backdrop of declining rates, according to Graff. The yield curve was inverted on Wednesday afternoon, with two-year yields  slightly higher than 10-year rates , FactSet data show.</p><p>In Graff&#39;s view, the corporate bond market also has been flashing recession concerns.</p><p>&#34;Investment-grade corporate spreads are about as wide as they&#39;ve been any time&#34; outside of a  recession in the last 25 years, said Graff. That doesn&#39;t mean there&#39;s &#34;100% odds&#34; of an economic contraction, he said, &#34;but it&#39;s definitely clearly showing credit markets think there&#39;s a risk.&#34;</p><p>Spreads over Treasurys for high-yield debt, or junk bonds, have similarly increased, according to Graff.</p><p>&#34;U.S. corporate bond spreads continue to move higher even though 10-year Treasury yields peaked 3 weeks ago,&#34; said Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, in a note emailed July 6. &#34;Spreads tend to rise when markets are increasingly uncertain about future corporate cash flows, and that has been the case most of this year.&#34;</p><p>Investors worry about cash flows drying up in an economic slowdown as that may hinder companies from reinvesting in their businesses, or make it more difficult for cash-strapped borrowers to meet their financial obligations.</p><p>The U.S. stock market has sunk this year after a repricing of valuations that looked stretched as rates rose. Growth stocks, including shares of technology-related companies, have taken a steep drop in 2022.The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite plunged 29.5% during the first half of this year, while the S&amp;P 500 dropped 20.6%.</p><p>Growth stocks are particularly sensitive to rising rates as their anticipated cash flow streams are far out into the future. But with rates recently falling amid recession concerns, they&#39;ve recently been gaining ground after being trounced by value-style bets over a stretch that began late last year.</p><p>Since June 10, the Russell 1000 Growth Index  has eked out a gain of 0.5% through Wednesday,  while the Russell 1000 Value Index  dropped about 3.7% over the same period, FactSet data show.</p><p>Upcoming company earnings reports for the second quarter should give investors a &#34;clearer picture&#34; of what companies expect in terms of demand for their goods and services in the second half of 2022, as well as which direction stocks will be headed, according to Graff.</p><p>&#34;Some amount of earnings slowdown is priced in,&#34; he said of the equities market. &#34;In our view, if earnings are mildly lower in the second half but companies see them rebounding in &#39;23, that&#39;s probably a pretty good outcome for stocks.&#34;</p><p>In prior recessions, the average earnings drop for the S&amp;P 500 was 13%, with the global financial crisis, or GFC, skewing the results, according to Tony DeSpirito, BlackRock&#39;s chief investment officer for U.S. fundamental equities. A chart in his third-quarter outlook report illustrates this finding.</p><p>&#34;We are not calling for a recession, but we are cognizant that the risks of a recession are rising,&#34; DeSpirito said in the note. &#34;The Fed is tightening monetary policy, bringing an end to &#39;easy money&#39; policies,&#34; he said, while 30-year mortgage rates have about doubled since last year to nearly 6% today, inflation is starting to &#34;erode household savings&#34; and &#34;inventories of goods are elevated as both pandemic-induced supply shortages and voracious demand ease.&#34;</p><p>All three major U.S. stock benchmarks ended Wednesday higher after the release of minutes of the Fed&#39;s last policy meeting. The S&amp;P 500  gained 0.4%, while the Nasdaq Composite  rose 0.3% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average  edged up 0.2%, according to Dow Jones Market Data.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2249546463","content_text":"If tech can sustain outperformance that will mean the market thinks the Fed has passed 'peak hawkishness,' according to Sevens ReportGrowth stocks have outperformed value equities recently as investors begin to question if the Federal Reserve has passed peak hawkishness already with its plans to raise rates to combat high inflation.Recent bets on fed-funds futures have pointed toward a potential pivot back to rate cuts at some point next year, while 10-year yields on U.S. government debt have fallen below 3%. Corporate bond spreads have widened as recession worries bubble up. But thedecline in Treasury yields appears to be giving a lift to technology and other growth stocks over value-oriented equities.\"While it's too early to declare the value outperformance 'over,' we do think the outperformance of tech recently is notable, because if it continues that will be a strong signal that the market is now looking past future rates hikes towards eventual rate cuts in 2023,\" said Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, in a note Wednesday. \"If tech can mount sustained outperformance that will tell us the market thinks the Fed has passed 'peak hawkishness.'\"Long-term Treasury yields have been falling recently because investors are worried that the U.S. economy is slowing and \"a recession is a distinct possibility,\" said Tom Graff, head of investments at Facet Wealth, by phone.The yield on the 10-year Treasury note jumped as high as about 3.482% in June, before falling Tuesday to 2.808%--the lowest since May 27 based on 3 p.m. Eastern Time levels, according to Dow Jones Market Data. That compares with a yield of about 1.5% at the end of 2021, when investors were anticipating that the Fed was gearing up to hike its benchmark rate to curb hot inflation.The Fed raised its benchmark rate in March for the first time since 2018, lifting it a quarter percentage point from near zero while laying out plans for further increases as inflation was running at the hottest pace in 40 years. Since then, the central bank has become more hawkish, announcing larger rate hikes as the cost of living has remained stubbornly high.That has made investors anxious that the Fed risks causing a recession by potentially being too aggressive to bring runaway inflation under control.Read:Fed's Waller backs another jumbo 75 bp interest-rate hike in JulyBut now slowing growth has some investors questioning how long the Fed will continue on an aggressive path of monetary tightening, even though it began hiking rates just this year.Recession worriesThe yield curve spread between 10-year and 2-year Treasury rates briefly inverted on July 5 for the first time since mid-June, another sign that the U.S. may be facing a recession, although this time against a backdrop of declining rates, according to Graff. The yield curve was inverted on Wednesday afternoon, with two-year yields  slightly higher than 10-year rates , FactSet data show.In Graff's view, the corporate bond market also has been flashing recession concerns.\"Investment-grade corporate spreads are about as wide as they've been any time\" outside of a  recession in the last 25 years, said Graff. That doesn't mean there's \"100% odds\" of an economic contraction, he said, \"but it's definitely clearly showing credit markets think there's a risk.\"Spreads over Treasurys for high-yield debt, or junk bonds, have similarly increased, according to Graff.\"U.S. corporate bond spreads continue to move higher even though 10-year Treasury yields peaked 3 weeks ago,\" said Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, in a note emailed July 6. \"Spreads tend to rise when markets are increasingly uncertain about future corporate cash flows, and that has been the case most of this year.\"Investors worry about cash flows drying up in an economic slowdown as that may hinder companies from reinvesting in their businesses, or make it more difficult for cash-strapped borrowers to meet their financial obligations.The U.S. stock market has sunk this year after a repricing of valuations that looked stretched as rates rose. Growth stocks, including shares of technology-related companies, have taken a steep drop in 2022.The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite plunged 29.5% during the first half of this year, while the S&P 500 dropped 20.6%.Growth stocks are particularly sensitive to rising rates as their anticipated cash flow streams are far out into the future. But with rates recently falling amid recession concerns, they've recently been gaining ground after being trounced by value-style bets over a stretch that began late last year.Since June 10, the Russell 1000 Growth Index  has eked out a gain of 0.5% through Wednesday,  while the Russell 1000 Value Index  dropped about 3.7% over the same period, FactSet data show.Upcoming company earnings reports for the second quarter should give investors a \"clearer picture\" of what companies expect in terms of demand for their goods and services in the second half of 2022, as well as which direction stocks will be headed, according to Graff.\"Some amount of earnings slowdown is priced in,\" he said of the equities market. \"In our view, if earnings are mildly lower in the second half but companies see them rebounding in '23, that's probably a pretty good outcome for stocks.\"In prior recessions, the average earnings drop for the S&P 500 was 13%, with the global financial crisis, or GFC, skewing the results, according to Tony DeSpirito, BlackRock's chief investment officer for U.S. fundamental equities. A chart in his third-quarter outlook report illustrates this finding.\"We are not calling for a recession, but we are cognizant that the risks of a recession are rising,\" DeSpirito said in the note. \"The Fed is tightening monetary policy, bringing an end to 'easy money' policies,\" he said, while 30-year mortgage rates have about doubled since last year to nearly 6% today, inflation is starting to \"erode household savings\" and \"inventories of goods are elevated as both pandemic-induced supply shortages and voracious demand ease.\"All three major U.S. stock benchmarks ended Wednesday higher after the release of minutes of the Fed's last policy meeting. The S&P 500  gained 0.4%, while the Nasdaq Composite  rose 0.3% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average  edged up 0.2%, according to Dow Jones Market Data.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":173,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9070782996,"gmtCreate":1657108876715,"gmtModify":1676535950505,"author":{"id":"4110808193746402","authorId":"4110808193746402","authorIdStr":"4110808193746402","name":"afai123","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4da4495245f7766ea1651f4fabd1a01f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4110808193746402"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wait for the right time","listText":"Wait for the right time","text":"Wait for the right time","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9070782996","repostId":"1155860056","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1155860056","pubTimestamp":1657090524,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1155860056?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-06 14:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple Stock: Buy in July?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1155860056","media":"The Street","summary":"Apple stock is down 25% in 2022 alone. However, July has historically been a good month for the tech giant.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>The year 2022 has not been kind to the equities market, especially tech and growth stocks. With US stocks officially in a bear market, high inflation and rising interest rates are raising concerns about a looming recession.</p><p>Even tech behemoth Apple has not been able to avoid the market carnage. Shares are down nearly 25% YTD.</p><p>But July has tended to be one of the best returning months for the Cupertino, California-based company. So, is now a good time to buy Apple?</p><h3>AAPL’s Calendar Trends</h3><p>Historically, there are reasons to be excited about AAPL in July and August. Apple stock&#39;s outperformance over the S&amp;P 500 in the last decade has been a solid 5% on average. And during the past five years, only once has AAPL trailed the market in July - and that was by less than -1%.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/748de568768fa6336a37daaa771000c5\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"232\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Figure 2: Apple&#39;s average monthly returns vs. S&amp;P 500.</span></p><p>Why the strong performance during midsummer? Historically, sentiment around Apple has spiked ahead of two important calendar events: 1) the launch of the new iPhone in September and 2) the holiday shopping season.</p><p>Since the launch of the very first iPhone in 2007, the two months leading up to the iPhone’s annual model update (July and August) have shown returns of 6.7% and 5.3%. It is during these months that investors start setting their expectations on Apple’s core product demand.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1748be939e7c79d618ad49ebad5a92b\" tg-width=\"682\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Figure 3: AAPL average monthly return since iPhone launch.</span></p><p>And it is towards the end of the third calendar quarter when financial results are most likely to reflect the strengthened demand for Apple&#39;s products and services. Past trends, however, have shown that the market usually prices in those increased strengths in the months preceding Q3.</p><p>Indeed, the hype over Apple’s fall announcements often becomes too frothy. Traders tend to “sell the news,” when it does eventually arrive. This is one of the reasons that AAPL stock has historically declined or broken even with the S&amp;P 500 between September and December.</p><p>However, this time around, there is strong macro pressure bearing down on iPhone demand. High inflation has been bringing down consumer confidence.</p><p>According to the latest data from June, The Conference Board&#39;s consumer confidence index suffered a 4.5-point loss, sinking to 98.7 for the month. That’s the lowest level since February of 2021.</p><h3>Wall Street Looks Past June, Sets Its Sights on the iPhone 14 Launch</h3><p>Chinese lockdowns, stemming from Xi Jinping’s Zero-Covid policy, have been a major concern on Wall Street lately. Lockdowns are forecast to cut Apple&#39;s revenue by between $4 billion and $8 billion for this quarter, according to guidance provided by Cook &amp; Co.</p><p>However, according to Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, the problems in China probably peaked in June, meaning the worst may be over.</p><p>Ives also believes that Wall Street is well aware of the weakness Apple will face this quarter. He sees smart investors looking past Apple’s June numbers and instead focusing on September and December quarters as well as iPhone 14 production and demand numbers.</p><p>The Wedbush analyst further stated that Apple&#39;s installed base will help it continue to navigate macro storms with success.</p><p>Finally, Ives said some investors are likely underestimating the iPhone upgrade cycle - roughly 240 million of Apple&#39;s 1 billion iPhone users have not upgraded their phones to a new model in the past 3.5 years. Should those users upgrade soon, that could mean a sizable chunk of revenue for Apple.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1610613172068","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Stock: Buy in July?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Stock: Buy in July?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-07-06 14:55 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/buy-apple-stock-in-july><strong>The Street</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The year 2022 has not been kind to the equities market, especially tech and growth stocks. With US stocks officially in a bear market, high inflation and rising interest rates are raising concerns ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/buy-apple-stock-in-july\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/buy-apple-stock-in-july","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1155860056","content_text":"The year 2022 has not been kind to the equities market, especially tech and growth stocks. With US stocks officially in a bear market, high inflation and rising interest rates are raising concerns about a looming recession.Even tech behemoth Apple has not been able to avoid the market carnage. Shares are down nearly 25% YTD.But July has tended to be one of the best returning months for the Cupertino, California-based company. So, is now a good time to buy Apple?AAPL’s Calendar TrendsHistorically, there are reasons to be excited about AAPL in July and August. Apple stock's outperformance over the S&P 500 in the last decade has been a solid 5% on average. And during the past five years, only once has AAPL trailed the market in July - and that was by less than -1%.Figure 2: Apple's average monthly returns vs. S&P 500.Why the strong performance during midsummer? Historically, sentiment around Apple has spiked ahead of two important calendar events: 1) the launch of the new iPhone in September and 2) the holiday shopping season.Since the launch of the very first iPhone in 2007, the two months leading up to the iPhone’s annual model update (July and August) have shown returns of 6.7% and 5.3%. It is during these months that investors start setting their expectations on Apple’s core product demand.Figure 3: AAPL average monthly return since iPhone launch.And it is towards the end of the third calendar quarter when financial results are most likely to reflect the strengthened demand for Apple's products and services. Past trends, however, have shown that the market usually prices in those increased strengths in the months preceding Q3.Indeed, the hype over Apple’s fall announcements often becomes too frothy. Traders tend to “sell the news,” when it does eventually arrive. This is one of the reasons that AAPL stock has historically declined or broken even with the S&P 500 between September and December.However, this time around, there is strong macro pressure bearing down on iPhone demand. High inflation has been bringing down consumer confidence.According to the latest data from June, The Conference Board's consumer confidence index suffered a 4.5-point loss, sinking to 98.7 for the month. That’s the lowest level since February of 2021.Wall Street Looks Past June, Sets Its Sights on the iPhone 14 LaunchChinese lockdowns, stemming from Xi Jinping’s Zero-Covid policy, have been a major concern on Wall Street lately. Lockdowns are forecast to cut Apple's revenue by between $4 billion and $8 billion for this quarter, according to guidance provided by Cook & Co.However, according to Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, the problems in China probably peaked in June, meaning the worst may be over.Ives also believes that Wall Street is well aware of the weakness Apple will face this quarter. He sees smart investors looking past Apple’s June numbers and instead focusing on September and December quarters as well as iPhone 14 production and demand numbers.The Wedbush analyst further stated that Apple's installed base will help it continue to navigate macro storms with success.Finally, Ives said some investors are likely underestimating the iPhone upgrade cycle - roughly 240 million of Apple's 1 billion iPhone users have not upgraded their phones to a new model in the past 3.5 years. Should those users upgrade soon, that could mean a sizable chunk of revenue for Apple.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":116,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9070881245,"gmtCreate":1657042625187,"gmtModify":1676535937394,"author":{"id":"4110808193746402","authorId":"4110808193746402","authorIdStr":"4110808193746402","name":"afai123","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4da4495245f7766ea1651f4fabd1a01f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4110808193746402"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9070881245","repostId":"1149123897","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1149123897","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"1012688067","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1657029202,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1149123897?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-05 21:53","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Novavax Gets EC Approval for Nuvaxovid Use in Ages 12-17","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1149123897","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"Novavax Inc. said Tuesday that the European Commission has approved the expanded conditional marketi","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Novavax Inc. said Tuesday that the European Commission has approved the expanded conditional marketing authorization of Nuvaxovid NVX-CoV2373 Covid-19 vaccine in the EU for adolescents aged 12 through 17.</p><p>The approval follows the positive recommendation made by the European Medicines Agency&#39;s Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use on June 23.</p><p>The authorization was based on data from the ongoing pediatric expansion of a Phase 3 trial of Nuvaxovid in the U.S. Nuvaxovid achieved its primary effectiveness endpoint and demonstrated 80% clinical efficacy at a time when the Delta variant was the predominant strain in the U.S., the company said.</p><p>NVX-CoV2373 hasn&#39;t been authorized for use in the U.S., and the trade name Nuvaxovid hasn&#39;t been approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration.</p><p>Novavax shares rose 6% to $60.67 after finishing Friday&#39;s session up 11%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50bba73b749330ba12f507522609768d\" tg-width=\"785\" tg-height=\"672\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Novavax Gets EC Approval for Nuvaxovid Use in Ages 12-17</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNovavax Gets EC Approval for Nuvaxovid Use in Ages 12-17\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1012688067\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-07-05 21:53</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Novavax Inc. said Tuesday that the European Commission has approved the expanded conditional marketing authorization of Nuvaxovid NVX-CoV2373 Covid-19 vaccine in the EU for adolescents aged 12 through 17.</p><p>The approval follows the positive recommendation made by the European Medicines Agency&#39;s Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use on June 23.</p><p>The authorization was based on data from the ongoing pediatric expansion of a Phase 3 trial of Nuvaxovid in the U.S. Nuvaxovid achieved its primary effectiveness endpoint and demonstrated 80% clinical efficacy at a time when the Delta variant was the predominant strain in the U.S., the company said.</p><p>NVX-CoV2373 hasn&#39;t been authorized for use in the U.S., and the trade name Nuvaxovid hasn&#39;t been approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration.</p><p>Novavax shares rose 6% to $60.67 after finishing Friday&#39;s session up 11%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50bba73b749330ba12f507522609768d\" tg-width=\"785\" tg-height=\"672\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVAX":"诺瓦瓦克斯医药"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1149123897","content_text":"Novavax Inc. said Tuesday that the European Commission has approved the expanded conditional marketing authorization of Nuvaxovid NVX-CoV2373 Covid-19 vaccine in the EU for adolescents aged 12 through 17.The approval follows the positive recommendation made by the European Medicines Agency's Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use on June 23.The authorization was based on data from the ongoing pediatric expansion of a Phase 3 trial of Nuvaxovid in the U.S. Nuvaxovid achieved its primary effectiveness endpoint and demonstrated 80% clinical efficacy at a time when the Delta variant was the predominant strain in the U.S., the company said.NVX-CoV2373 hasn't been authorized for use in the U.S., and the trade name Nuvaxovid hasn't been approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration.Novavax shares rose 6% to $60.67 after finishing Friday's session up 11%.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":27,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9047517346,"gmtCreate":1656942324385,"gmtModify":1676535919306,"author":{"id":"4110808193746402","authorId":"4110808193746402","authorIdStr":"4110808193746402","name":"afai123","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4da4495245f7766ea1651f4fabd1a01f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4110808193746402"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9047517346","repostId":"2248313616","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":164,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9045269278,"gmtCreate":1656630523595,"gmtModify":1676535864988,"author":{"id":"4110808193746402","authorId":"4110808193746402","authorIdStr":"4110808193746402","name":"afai123","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4da4495245f7766ea1651f4fabd1a01f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4110808193746402"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9045269278","repostId":"2248854531","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2248854531","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1656628640,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2248854531?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-01 06:37","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Micron's Weak Outlook Sparks Concerns of Chip Down Cycle","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2248854531","media":"Reuters","summary":"June 30 (Reuters) - Micron Technology Inc projected fourth-quarter revenue and profit below market e","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>June 30 (Reuters) - Micron Technology Inc projected fourth-quarter revenue and profit below market estimates on Thursday, a sign that geopolitical turmoil and weakness in consumer spending would weigh on demand for its memory chips.</p><p>Shares of the Boise, Idaho-based company initially fell 6.3% in extended trading but later pared losses to trade 2.2% lower. The weak outlook could raise broader concern the chip market is heading into a down cycle after a recent shortage.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66c5d5c3a337646c0898ad012ee785ca\" tg-width=\"853\" tg-height=\"621\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Micron forecast adjusted revenue for the current quarter at $7.2 billion, plus or minus $400 million. Analysts on average expected a figure of $9.05 billion, according to Refinitiv IBES data.</p><p>“We believe that demand has weakened considerably and we&#39;ve seen that even in the areas that have been significantly constrained,&#34; Nikolay Todorov, analyst at Longbow Research, said. “Micron will essentially start or signal that the semiconductor cycle is turning.”</p><p>The outlook for memory chip makers has worsened in recent months as surging inflation, China&#39;s cooling economy and the Russia-Ukraine war hit consumer spending on smartphones and personal computers, a crucial market for the industry.</p><p>That has driven down chip prices and led to a buildup of inventories, with research firm TrendForce estimating a 3% to 8% drop in prices of DRAM chips during the third quarter of 2022.</p><p>“Recently, the industry demand environment has weakened, and we are taking action to moderate our supply growth in fiscal 2023,&#34; said Micron Chief Executive Sanjay Mehrotra in the earnings release. &#34;We are confident about the long-term secular demand for memory and storage and are well positioned to deliver strong cross-cycle financial performance.”</p><p>DRAM chips - widely used in data centers, personal computers and other devices - account for two-thirds of Micron&#39;s revenue, and the company also makes NAND memory chips that serve the data storage market.</p><p>The company expects adjusted profit for the quarter of $1.63 per share, plus or minus 20 cents, compared with estimates of $2.57 per share.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Micron's Weak Outlook Sparks Concerns of Chip Down Cycle</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMicron's Weak Outlook Sparks Concerns of Chip Down Cycle\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-07-01 06:37</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>June 30 (Reuters) - Micron Technology Inc projected fourth-quarter revenue and profit below market estimates on Thursday, a sign that geopolitical turmoil and weakness in consumer spending would weigh on demand for its memory chips.</p><p>Shares of the Boise, Idaho-based company initially fell 6.3% in extended trading but later pared losses to trade 2.2% lower. The weak outlook could raise broader concern the chip market is heading into a down cycle after a recent shortage.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66c5d5c3a337646c0898ad012ee785ca\" tg-width=\"853\" tg-height=\"621\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Micron forecast adjusted revenue for the current quarter at $7.2 billion, plus or minus $400 million. Analysts on average expected a figure of $9.05 billion, according to Refinitiv IBES data.</p><p>“We believe that demand has weakened considerably and we&#39;ve seen that even in the areas that have been significantly constrained,&#34; Nikolay Todorov, analyst at Longbow Research, said. “Micron will essentially start or signal that the semiconductor cycle is turning.”</p><p>The outlook for memory chip makers has worsened in recent months as surging inflation, China&#39;s cooling economy and the Russia-Ukraine war hit consumer spending on smartphones and personal computers, a crucial market for the industry.</p><p>That has driven down chip prices and led to a buildup of inventories, with research firm TrendForce estimating a 3% to 8% drop in prices of DRAM chips during the third quarter of 2022.</p><p>“Recently, the industry demand environment has weakened, and we are taking action to moderate our supply growth in fiscal 2023,&#34; said Micron Chief Executive Sanjay Mehrotra in the earnings release. &#34;We are confident about the long-term secular demand for memory and storage and are well positioned to deliver strong cross-cycle financial performance.”</p><p>DRAM chips - widely used in data centers, personal computers and other devices - account for two-thirds of Micron&#39;s revenue, and the company also makes NAND memory chips that serve the data storage market.</p><p>The company expects adjusted profit for the quarter of $1.63 per share, plus or minus 20 cents, compared with estimates of $2.57 per share.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MU":"美光科技"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2248854531","content_text":"June 30 (Reuters) - Micron Technology Inc projected fourth-quarter revenue and profit below market estimates on Thursday, a sign that geopolitical turmoil and weakness in consumer spending would weigh on demand for its memory chips.Shares of the Boise, Idaho-based company initially fell 6.3% in extended trading but later pared losses to trade 2.2% lower. The weak outlook could raise broader concern the chip market is heading into a down cycle after a recent shortage.Micron forecast adjusted revenue for the current quarter at $7.2 billion, plus or minus $400 million. Analysts on average expected a figure of $9.05 billion, according to Refinitiv IBES data.“We believe that demand has weakened considerably and we've seen that even in the areas that have been significantly constrained,\" Nikolay Todorov, analyst at Longbow Research, said. “Micron will essentially start or signal that the semiconductor cycle is turning.”The outlook for memory chip makers has worsened in recent months as surging inflation, China's cooling economy and the Russia-Ukraine war hit consumer spending on smartphones and personal computers, a crucial market for the industry.That has driven down chip prices and led to a buildup of inventories, with research firm TrendForce estimating a 3% to 8% drop in prices of DRAM chips during the third quarter of 2022.“Recently, the industry demand environment has weakened, and we are taking action to moderate our supply growth in fiscal 2023,\" said Micron Chief Executive Sanjay Mehrotra in the earnings release. \"We are confident about the long-term secular demand for memory and storage and are well positioned to deliver strong cross-cycle financial performance.”DRAM chips - widely used in data centers, personal computers and other devices - account for two-thirds of Micron's revenue, and the company also makes NAND memory chips that serve the data storage market.The company expects adjusted profit for the quarter of $1.63 per share, plus or minus 20 cents, compared with estimates of $2.57 per share.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":41,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9079825629,"gmtCreate":1657175609561,"gmtModify":1676535964422,"author":{"id":"4110808193746402","authorId":"4110808193746402","authorIdStr":"4110808193746402","name":"afai123","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4da4495245f7766ea1651f4fabd1a01f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4110808193746402"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9079825629","repostId":"2249546463","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":173,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9047517346,"gmtCreate":1656942324385,"gmtModify":1676535919306,"author":{"id":"4110808193746402","authorId":"4110808193746402","authorIdStr":"4110808193746402","name":"afai123","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4da4495245f7766ea1651f4fabd1a01f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4110808193746402"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9047517346","repostId":"2248313616","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2248313616","pubTimestamp":1656933657,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2248313616?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-04 19:20","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Micron Technology: Gross Margin Deteriorating Rapidly Points To More Share Price Downside","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2248313616","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Micron's business is in a down cycle. Gross margin, profitability and share price will likely contin","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2>Micron&#39;s business is in a down cycle. Gross margin, profitability and share price will likely continue to decline</h2><p>Micron is a great company. It is very competitive with the other semiconductor memory suppliers of the world. Its balance sheet is strong and it generates significant free cash flow. It has been reducing its cost structure, making it more profitable through a cycle. Micron and its peers have been more rational in their capex investment. I look forward to buying MU shares someday, but today I am short into this down cycle.</p><p>It is my opinion that despite the high-tech nature of the manufacturing process, memory is a commodity, and the business is cyclical. Profitability is driven by supply demand balance. As a result, Micron trades like a cyclical commodity stock with low PE ratios. Hence, in order to profit from trading in MU stock, one must trade it like a cyclical commodity business, selling close to the top and buying close to the bottom.</p><p>I have found that MU’s GM is the best indicator to foretell the top and the bottom of the cycle. A chart of MU’s historical GM and share price is shown in Figure 1. The last GM data point is management’s guidance for F4Q, which is 41.5% at the mid-point.</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c31d31b58e613efc395988429bbdae45\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Figure 1: Micron’s historical GM and price. Note: the price in Figure 1 is the closing price the day after earnings print. (Company releases and SA data base)</p><p>Figure 1 shows that historically, MU’s price peaked and then declined after the GM rolled over and declined and bottomed and then increased after the GM bottomed out and increased. However, in the current cycle, the GM has plateaued for four quarters and investors have been selling ahead of the GM decline likely because of the weakening macro outlook. In retrospect, the plateauing of the GM was likely an indication that despite continuous cost reduction, MU is losing pricing power and has to pass along most of its cost savings to its customers in order to maintain market share. This would have been an early indication of slackening demand.</p><h2>Micron&#39;s consumer facing business is down, and cloud, enterprise and auto businesses will probably roll over shortly</h2><p>This down cycle is driven by the macro-induced demand destruction. This is not lost to management and the analysts. The words “macro” and “macroeconomics” appeared no less than ten times in the F3Q2022CC. The macro headwinds are front and center in everyone’s concern.</p><p>Micron reported that the consumer facing businesses (smartphone and consumer PC) are deteriorating rapidly during F3Q. This is something that I have pointed out in my May 3 article. Micron also reported that the data center, enterprise, and auto business are holding up. During the Q&amp;A session, analysts expressed their concerns for the robustness of the data center business as enterprise CIOs are concerned with the macro-outlook and are pulling back on their budget. Analysts also pointed out that Chinese data centers have already pulled back their spending. Further, memory inventory is elevated in the data center supply chain, even higher than before the pandemic. While management did not provide any concrete answers, it is likely that the analysts’ concerns are simply leading indicators of a downturn in the data center business.</p><p>Similarly, when enterprise customers tighten their budget, the enterprise client business will likely decline. The auto business is always very sensitive to the economy. With the macro backdrop deteriorating rapidly, I will not be surprised that the auto business will roll over soon. Hence, it is likely that all of MU’s business segments will decline in the next several quarters, further impacting revenue, GM, profitability and share price.</p><p>Management has indicated that market visibility is worsening. This can be seen also in the lower revenue and GM guidance for F4Q and wider bands for the guidance. Revenue guidance is at $7.2 billion compared to analysts&#39; consensus of $9.02 billion, a big miss. The revenue guidance band is widened from a typical +/- $200 million to +/- $400 million. Similarly, the GM guidance represents a drop of 520 basis point at the mid-point and the band is widened from a typical +/- 1% to +/-1.5%. Further, management refused to predict when this cycle will bottom. Frankly, I do not think that they know because this down cycle is macro-driven and they, like most people, have very limited visibility on the trajectory of the macro.</p><p>I give management credit for doing things that are within their control. Management will cut operating expenses and capex. They will reduce wafer front end utilization in 2023. However, given the long lead time in the manufacturing cycle and the rapidly declining demand, management expects inventory, now at 108 days of sales, to explode by perhaps as much as 20 more days of sales. This will likely further exacerbate the downturn in GM due to potential write downs, lower utilization of wafer front end, and higher COGS carried in inventory. As a result, I expect GM to decline further beyond F4Q, taking MU’s share price down with it along the way.</p><h2>Gross margin is probably the best indicator to watch for the bottom</h2><p>An investor’s natural question is: when will the share price bottom? I do not know, but I will let my GM indicator guide me. I believe it is the best indicator for predicting the turning of the cycle. I will watch both the GM and the rate of decline of the GM. When the rate of decline moderates, it may be time to close my short positions and go long.</p><p>Some readers have commented in my May 3 article that the low PE ratio of MU shares will provide support for its share price. Unfortunately, earnings will likely decline in a down cycle, causing the PE ratio to increase. Hence, I believe that for most cyclical stocks like MU, the time to buy is when PE is sky-high. The time to sell is when the PE is low. Yet others have suggested that MU’s book value of about $43 per share may provide a floor. Unfortunately, cyclical companies may sell below book value in a down cycle. Hence, an investor may not find comfort in the book value to provide support should the macro get very ugly.</p><h2>Macro indicators are useful to gauge the bottom of Micron shares as well</h2><p>The macroeconomic headwinds impacting the worldwide economy are well known: Inflation, Fed tightening, war in Ukraine, Europe mired in a recession and energy crisis, high energy prices, China’s economy is hurting due to the collapse of its property developers, COVID lock-down, and policies against its tech companies. These same headwinds are impacting demand for MU’s memory products worldwide as well.</p><p>Typically, a memory down cycle lasts about eight quarters. With the plateauing of the GM for four quarters, we may be one to four quarters into this down cycle, depending on when you count as the start of the down cycle. Hence, there may be four or seven more quarters to go before this down cycle ends. However, since this cycle is driven by the macro, macro will likely determine the duration of this cycle. Hence, it pays to watch the macro indicators.</p><p>Shown in Figure 2 is a list of macro indicators that I intend to watch in conjunction with my GM indicator. I borrowed this list from Mr. David Rosenberg of Rosenberg Research. You can find his work on this list of indicators here between time stamps 1:36 and 4:32.</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/850a70cdefe0fd0376b0a239dac594f0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"318\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Figure 2: List of macroeconomic indicators to watch for market bottom. (Rosenberg Research)</p><p>When my GM indicator shows an inflection and when most of these indicators in Figure 2 have reached or come close to their respective target values, then it would be time to close my short positions and go long MU shares. Until then, I will let my short positions ride.</p><p>Looking at the indicators in Figure 2, one should not find too much comfort in the forward PE of the S&amp;P 500 being so close to the target value. I believe that downward revision of forward earnings will come in earnest when 3Q earnings are reported starting in several weeks. Downward revision will likely continue for at least the next six months, if not longer, thereby increasing the forward PE ratio.</p><p>The current 10-year treasury yield is 2.889% while the S&amp;P 500 dividend yield is 1.64%. For the ratio of the two yield numbers to reach parity, either the treasury yield has to come down a lot or the S&amp;P 500 has to decline a lot. Both will probably happen as the recession advances. This just tells me that there is much downside risk for MU share price, even though it has already declined by 45% from its peak of this cycle.</p><h2>Risks</h2><p>In the last cycle, investors have anticipated the peaking and bottoming of MU’s GM and acted accordingly ahead of the inflection points. Hence, there is a risk that investors may buy before the bottom, thereby reducing the return on my shorts and reducing the potential gain of my future longs. The economy may not worsen as much as I expect and hence MU’s shares may rebound rapidly. Micron, with its share price down significantly, may attract a suitor, causing share price to jump. Selling short always carries a risk of potentially unlimited loss. Buying put option carries a risk of complete loss of one’s capital.</p><h2>Takeaway</h2><p>Micron’s management has guided GM and revenue to decline 520 bps and 16.7%, respectively, QoQ at the mid-point. More importantly, the revenue guidance is 20% below analysts&#39; consensus, a big miss! It is likely that this down cycle will last well into 2023, resulting in Micron’s share price to continue to decline. This down cycle is driven by macro headwinds. Hence, it pays to watch my GM indicator for its inflection as well as some macro indicators to guide the timing of the closing of my shorts and to go long.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Micron Technology: Gross Margin Deteriorating Rapidly Points To More Share Price Downside</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMicron Technology: Gross Margin Deteriorating Rapidly Points To More Share Price Downside\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-07-04 19:20 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4521612-micron-technology-deteriorating-gross-margin-points-to-share-price-downside><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Micron's business is in a down cycle. Gross margin, profitability and share price will likely continue to declineMicron is a great company. It is very competitive with the other semiconductor memory ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4521612-micron-technology-deteriorating-gross-margin-points-to-share-price-downside\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MU":"美光科技"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4521612-micron-technology-deteriorating-gross-margin-points-to-share-price-downside","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2248313616","content_text":"Micron's business is in a down cycle. Gross margin, profitability and share price will likely continue to declineMicron is a great company. It is very competitive with the other semiconductor memory suppliers of the world. Its balance sheet is strong and it generates significant free cash flow. It has been reducing its cost structure, making it more profitable through a cycle. Micron and its peers have been more rational in their capex investment. I look forward to buying MU shares someday, but today I am short into this down cycle.It is my opinion that despite the high-tech nature of the manufacturing process, memory is a commodity, and the business is cyclical. Profitability is driven by supply demand balance. As a result, Micron trades like a cyclical commodity stock with low PE ratios. Hence, in order to profit from trading in MU stock, one must trade it like a cyclical commodity business, selling close to the top and buying close to the bottom.I have found that MU’s GM is the best indicator to foretell the top and the bottom of the cycle. A chart of MU’s historical GM and share price is shown in Figure 1. The last GM data point is management’s guidance for F4Q, which is 41.5% at the mid-point.Figure 1: Micron’s historical GM and price. Note: the price in Figure 1 is the closing price the day after earnings print. (Company releases and SA data base)Figure 1 shows that historically, MU’s price peaked and then declined after the GM rolled over and declined and bottomed and then increased after the GM bottomed out and increased. However, in the current cycle, the GM has plateaued for four quarters and investors have been selling ahead of the GM decline likely because of the weakening macro outlook. In retrospect, the plateauing of the GM was likely an indication that despite continuous cost reduction, MU is losing pricing power and has to pass along most of its cost savings to its customers in order to maintain market share. This would have been an early indication of slackening demand.Micron's consumer facing business is down, and cloud, enterprise and auto businesses will probably roll over shortlyThis down cycle is driven by the macro-induced demand destruction. This is not lost to management and the analysts. The words “macro” and “macroeconomics” appeared no less than ten times in the F3Q2022CC. The macro headwinds are front and center in everyone’s concern.Micron reported that the consumer facing businesses (smartphone and consumer PC) are deteriorating rapidly during F3Q. This is something that I have pointed out in my May 3 article. Micron also reported that the data center, enterprise, and auto business are holding up. During the Q&A session, analysts expressed their concerns for the robustness of the data center business as enterprise CIOs are concerned with the macro-outlook and are pulling back on their budget. Analysts also pointed out that Chinese data centers have already pulled back their spending. Further, memory inventory is elevated in the data center supply chain, even higher than before the pandemic. While management did not provide any concrete answers, it is likely that the analysts’ concerns are simply leading indicators of a downturn in the data center business.Similarly, when enterprise customers tighten their budget, the enterprise client business will likely decline. The auto business is always very sensitive to the economy. With the macro backdrop deteriorating rapidly, I will not be surprised that the auto business will roll over soon. Hence, it is likely that all of MU’s business segments will decline in the next several quarters, further impacting revenue, GM, profitability and share price.Management has indicated that market visibility is worsening. This can be seen also in the lower revenue and GM guidance for F4Q and wider bands for the guidance. Revenue guidance is at $7.2 billion compared to analysts' consensus of $9.02 billion, a big miss. The revenue guidance band is widened from a typical +/- $200 million to +/- $400 million. Similarly, the GM guidance represents a drop of 520 basis point at the mid-point and the band is widened from a typical +/- 1% to +/-1.5%. Further, management refused to predict when this cycle will bottom. Frankly, I do not think that they know because this down cycle is macro-driven and they, like most people, have very limited visibility on the trajectory of the macro.I give management credit for doing things that are within their control. Management will cut operating expenses and capex. They will reduce wafer front end utilization in 2023. However, given the long lead time in the manufacturing cycle and the rapidly declining demand, management expects inventory, now at 108 days of sales, to explode by perhaps as much as 20 more days of sales. This will likely further exacerbate the downturn in GM due to potential write downs, lower utilization of wafer front end, and higher COGS carried in inventory. As a result, I expect GM to decline further beyond F4Q, taking MU’s share price down with it along the way.Gross margin is probably the best indicator to watch for the bottomAn investor’s natural question is: when will the share price bottom? I do not know, but I will let my GM indicator guide me. I believe it is the best indicator for predicting the turning of the cycle. I will watch both the GM and the rate of decline of the GM. When the rate of decline moderates, it may be time to close my short positions and go long.Some readers have commented in my May 3 article that the low PE ratio of MU shares will provide support for its share price. Unfortunately, earnings will likely decline in a down cycle, causing the PE ratio to increase. Hence, I believe that for most cyclical stocks like MU, the time to buy is when PE is sky-high. The time to sell is when the PE is low. Yet others have suggested that MU’s book value of about $43 per share may provide a floor. Unfortunately, cyclical companies may sell below book value in a down cycle. Hence, an investor may not find comfort in the book value to provide support should the macro get very ugly.Macro indicators are useful to gauge the bottom of Micron shares as wellThe macroeconomic headwinds impacting the worldwide economy are well known: Inflation, Fed tightening, war in Ukraine, Europe mired in a recession and energy crisis, high energy prices, China’s economy is hurting due to the collapse of its property developers, COVID lock-down, and policies against its tech companies. These same headwinds are impacting demand for MU’s memory products worldwide as well.Typically, a memory down cycle lasts about eight quarters. With the plateauing of the GM for four quarters, we may be one to four quarters into this down cycle, depending on when you count as the start of the down cycle. Hence, there may be four or seven more quarters to go before this down cycle ends. However, since this cycle is driven by the macro, macro will likely determine the duration of this cycle. Hence, it pays to watch the macro indicators.Shown in Figure 2 is a list of macro indicators that I intend to watch in conjunction with my GM indicator. I borrowed this list from Mr. David Rosenberg of Rosenberg Research. You can find his work on this list of indicators here between time stamps 1:36 and 4:32.Figure 2: List of macroeconomic indicators to watch for market bottom. (Rosenberg Research)When my GM indicator shows an inflection and when most of these indicators in Figure 2 have reached or come close to their respective target values, then it would be time to close my short positions and go long MU shares. Until then, I will let my short positions ride.Looking at the indicators in Figure 2, one should not find too much comfort in the forward PE of the S&P 500 being so close to the target value. I believe that downward revision of forward earnings will come in earnest when 3Q earnings are reported starting in several weeks. Downward revision will likely continue for at least the next six months, if not longer, thereby increasing the forward PE ratio.The current 10-year treasury yield is 2.889% while the S&P 500 dividend yield is 1.64%. For the ratio of the two yield numbers to reach parity, either the treasury yield has to come down a lot or the S&P 500 has to decline a lot. Both will probably happen as the recession advances. This just tells me that there is much downside risk for MU share price, even though it has already declined by 45% from its peak of this cycle.RisksIn the last cycle, investors have anticipated the peaking and bottoming of MU’s GM and acted accordingly ahead of the inflection points. Hence, there is a risk that investors may buy before the bottom, thereby reducing the return on my shorts and reducing the potential gain of my future longs. The economy may not worsen as much as I expect and hence MU’s shares may rebound rapidly. Micron, with its share price down significantly, may attract a suitor, causing share price to jump. Selling short always carries a risk of potentially unlimited loss. Buying put option carries a risk of complete loss of one’s capital.TakeawayMicron’s management has guided GM and revenue to decline 520 bps and 16.7%, respectively, QoQ at the mid-point. More importantly, the revenue guidance is 20% below analysts' consensus, a big miss! It is likely that this down cycle will last well into 2023, resulting in Micron’s share price to continue to decline. This down cycle is driven by macro headwinds. Hence, it pays to watch my GM indicator for its inflection as well as some macro indicators to guide the timing of the closing of my shorts and to go long.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":164,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9070881245,"gmtCreate":1657042625187,"gmtModify":1676535937394,"author":{"id":"4110808193746402","authorId":"4110808193746402","authorIdStr":"4110808193746402","name":"afai123","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4da4495245f7766ea1651f4fabd1a01f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4110808193746402"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9070881245","repostId":"1149123897","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":27,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9070782996,"gmtCreate":1657108876715,"gmtModify":1676535950505,"author":{"id":"4110808193746402","authorId":"4110808193746402","authorIdStr":"4110808193746402","name":"afai123","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4da4495245f7766ea1651f4fabd1a01f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4110808193746402"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wait for the right time","listText":"Wait for the right time","text":"Wait for the right time","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9070782996","repostId":"1155860056","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":116,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9045269278,"gmtCreate":1656630523595,"gmtModify":1676535864988,"author":{"id":"4110808193746402","authorId":"4110808193746402","authorIdStr":"4110808193746402","name":"afai123","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4da4495245f7766ea1651f4fabd1a01f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4110808193746402"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9045269278","repostId":"2248854531","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":41,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}