7f231b67 personal page - To The Moon

7f231b67

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2022-05-11

$System1(SST)$boo

2022-05-11

$System1(SST)$up

2022-05-06

$Twitter(TWTR)$next

2022-05-06

$System1(SST)$hais

2022-05-04

$System1(SST)$not so good

2022-04-29

$Moderna, Inc.(MRNA)$..

2022-04-29

$System1(SST)$..

2022-04-24

$Pfizer(PFE)$next

2022-04-23

$System1(SST)$damn it

2022-04-23

$Manchester United PLC(MANU)$hm

2022-04-22

$System1(SST)$pls climb again

2022-04-22

$Manchester United PLC(MANU)$horrible

2022-04-21

$System1(SST)$still bad

2022-04-21

$System1(SST)$pls go to og value

2022-04-20

Posted

Is The End Near For Musk And Tesla?

2022-04-20

Great ariticle, would you like to share it?

@koolgal:$OVERSEA-CHINESE BANKING CORP(O39.SI)$ is the most undervalued and oversold of the 3 Singapore banks. It recently faced some headwinds of banking scam but has weathered the storm reasonably well.With interest rates rising and a hot property market, OCBC should do well in the 2nd half of 2022.The Financial Analysts have rated OCBC as a Buy with Target Price of between 14.22and 14.40.The latest earnings report showed that OCBC was 35% better in profits in 2021 compared to 2022. I intend to keep $OVERSEA-CHINESE BANKING CORP(O39.SI)$ in my long term portfolio as I believe it is a strong and reliable bank with an excellent management team. It also pays steady dividends

2022-04-19

$System1(SST)$very bad

2022-04-19

$Manchester United PLC(MANU)$good

2022-04-16

$AmplitudeE, Inc.(AMPL)$next target

2022-04-15

Good

U.S. Stocks Slide as Rising Bond Yields Hit Growth Stocks

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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Inc.(MRNA)$..","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0a469af65cede21c118c297a48cb5105","width":"1440","height":"4639"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9060491104","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":638,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9060493833,"gmtCreate":1651187184689,"gmtModify":1676534864566,"author":{"id":"4111462698941142","authorId":"4111462698941142","name":"7f231b67","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4111462698941142","authorIdStr":"4111462698941142"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SST\">$System1(SST)$</a>..","listText":"<a 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href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PFE\">$Pfizer(PFE)$</a>next","text":"$Pfizer(PFE)$next","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/770acb849fd2a62fe713ee9ad5aaf38a","width":"1440","height":"4639"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9084077823","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":413,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9085139763,"gmtCreate":1650669373710,"gmtModify":1676534772272,"author":{"id":"4111462698941142","authorId":"4111462698941142","name":"7f231b67","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4111462698941142","authorIdStr":"4111462698941142"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SST\">$System1(SST)$</a>damn it","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SST\">$System1(SST)$</a>damn it","text":"$System1(SST)$damn it","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4746bcea65864037bb9fcc03338e0c44","width":"1440","height":"2560"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9085139763","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":613,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9085197089,"gmtCreate":1650669137917,"gmtModify":1676534772113,"author":{"id":"4111462698941142","authorId":"4111462698941142","name":"7f231b67","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4111462698941142","authorIdStr":"4111462698941142"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/MANU\">$Manchester United PLC(MANU)$</a>hm","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/MANU\">$Manchester United PLC(MANU)$</a>hm","text":"$Manchester United PLC(MANU)$hm","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c786f6fe76c7f78102691194cd8e3101","width":"1440","height":"4639"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9085197089","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":521,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9082279684,"gmtCreate":1650583339124,"gmtModify":1676534755855,"author":{"id":"4111462698941142","authorId":"4111462698941142","name":"7f231b67","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4111462698941142","authorIdStr":"4111462698941142"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SST\">$System1(SST)$</a>pls climb again","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SST\">$System1(SST)$</a>pls climb again","text":"$System1(SST)$pls climb again","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/cfad75294e6431ff6879985b0f68eb43","width":"1440","height":"2560"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9082279684","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":165,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9082270874,"gmtCreate":1650583287001,"gmtModify":1676534755824,"author":{"id":"4111462698941142","authorId":"4111462698941142","name":"7f231b67","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4111462698941142","authorIdStr":"4111462698941142"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/MANU\">$Manchester United PLC(MANU)$</a>horrible","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/MANU\">$Manchester United PLC(MANU)$</a>horrible","text":"$Manchester United PLC(MANU)$horrible","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/07ab643b075e4471305554ba77e07465","width":"1440","height":"4639"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9082270874","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":49,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9086551916,"gmtCreate":1650472298561,"gmtModify":1676534732451,"author":{"id":"4111462698941142","authorId":"4111462698941142","name":"7f231b67","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4111462698941142","authorIdStr":"4111462698941142"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SST\">$System1(SST)$</a>still bad","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SST\">$System1(SST)$</a>still bad","text":"$System1(SST)$still bad","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d8e9a5f09b73656074304c4630963db1","width":"1440","height":"2560"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9086551916","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":387,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9086553727,"gmtCreate":1650472275912,"gmtModify":1676534732449,"author":{"id":"4111462698941142","authorId":"4111462698941142","name":"7f231b67","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4111462698941142","authorIdStr":"4111462698941142"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SST\">$System1(SST)$</a>pls go to og value","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SST\">$System1(SST)$</a>pls go to og value","text":"$System1(SST)$pls go to og value","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/2b029127013de43f7fa00dee1decf93c","width":"1440","height":"4515"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9086553727","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":118,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9088740572,"gmtCreate":1650386121469,"gmtModify":1676534711464,"author":{"id":"4111462698941142","authorId":"4111462698941142","name":"7f231b67","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4111462698941142","authorIdStr":"4111462698941142"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Posted","listText":"Posted","text":"Posted","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9088740572","repostId":"1105569285","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1105569285","pubTimestamp":1650468622,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1105569285?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-04-20 23:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is The End Near For Musk And Tesla?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1105569285","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryDespite recent gains, investors should consider selling Tesla and other meme stocks now, before institutional money bails.While regulators may still be too frightened to hold Musk accountable, ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Summary</p><ul><li>Despite recent gains, investors should consider selling Tesla and other meme stocks now, before institutional money bails.</li><li>While regulators may still be too frightened to hold Musk accountable, a change in public opinion would be far more consequential to Musk and his empire.</li><li>The hype around Musk’s stake in Twitter and the speculation around his plans for the social media platform takes focus away from the troubles, which are many, ahead of Tesla.</li></ul><p>For years, Elon Musk has used hype to prop up Tesla’s stock. It’s worked so well that other companies have followed his lead. But now, we think the world has seen that the emperor has no clothes. The attempted Twitter (TWTR) takeover is yet another example of Musk bullying his way into what he wants and underscores how his super-star status cannot always convince people to overlook his irreverent, reckless, and potentially illegal behavior. As the recent lawsuit againstMusk shows, he is not completely immune from the consequences of his actions. Despite recent gains, investors should consider selling Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) and other meme stocks now, before institutional money bails.</p><p><b>End of the Road for Musk</b></p><p>Most investors are keenly aware of Musk’s long history of making grand promises that don’t come true – the Roadster, the Semi, the Cybertruck, full-self driving (FSD) etc. – and at times are blatantly unethical, such as tweeting “funding secured” to go private, and pumping Doge coin. But now, we have evidence that he may have acted illegally in the way he reported his purchases of Twitter stock. Given the clear rules about how investors should report large stakes in public companies – like what Musk has in Twitter – this case seems straightforward: Musk broke the rules.</p><p>The next question is how severely he will be punished. If the past is any guide, regulators will not muster more than a slap on the wrist. The real question is how institutional investors will react to signs Musk has pushed the envelope too far.</p><p>Institutional investors own Tesla stock more often because they must, given its influence on their performance, than because they see it as a good investment. Any investor with a rigorous process can see the stock is ridiculously overvalued; so, you own it for the “Musk effect”. Accordingly, the institutional investors’ decision to sell Tesla stock will be based on when Musk’s outsized influence begins to wane.</p><p>We think that moment has come.</p><p><b>Musk Meets His Maker: Twitter</b></p><p>In our view, Musk’s repeated rule-breaking behavior has finally gone too far. Details of the case are still emerging, but Musk’s failure to disclose his more than 5% stake in Twitter arguably hurt investors who sold shares after he crossed that ownership threshold. Instead, Musk kept purchasing shares until reaching a 9% stake in Twitter before disclosing his position. The initial class-action lawsuit and the potential for more have finally gotten the attention of investors, if not regulators.</p><p>The poor reception Twitter’s employees gave the news of Musk’s stake is a very public rejection of his super-star influencer status and provide the first tangible evidence that maybe his star power has limitations. If a hostile takeover prompts a mass exodus of talent, then Musk might end up destroying the company in the process of buying it. That being said, the loudest voices in the company are not necessarily the most valuable.</p><p>As more people join lawsuits against Musk, and Twitter employees continue to express their mistrust of the company’s largest shareholder, institutional investors may seize this moment to quietly unload their shares of overvalued Tesla stock. Now is the time to sell because the price of the stock to this point has been more a reflection of Musk’s ability to draw an audience than any underlying fundamental value in the company.</p><p><b>Live by the Stunt, Die by the Stunt</b></p><p>Ultimately, it appears that as much as Twitter was the launch pad for Musk’s super influence powers, his failure thus far to win the publicity battle could mark the beginning-of-the-end of his super-star status.</p><p>Musk’s Twitter play, which is another in a long series of distractions, could end poorly for Musk. Instead of addressing Tesla’s issues, Musk appears to be attempting to position himself as a defender of free speech. The risk he faces is that instead of looking like a hero he looks more like a bully running an ego-driven takeover with little regard for the rules. While regulators may still be too frightened to hold Musk accountable (more on this below), a change in public opinion would be far more consequential to Musk and his empire.</p><p>Tesla’s investors have not been impressed with Musk’s Twitter antics either, as the stock is down 11% since he announced his ownership in the social media giant. Likewise, the “Musk bump” in Twitter shares is likely to fade as investors realize the only value Musk brought was publicity, and not good publicity either. Although Twitter remains a popular platform, it has its own problems and suggestions such as removing a letter from its name can do more harm than good.</p><p><b>Why Haven’t Regulators Done Anything Before Now?</b></p><p>Tesla’s high stock price has, thus far, kept its CEO well beyond an arm’s length of regulators. Other executives in other times likely would have faced consequences for many of the things Musk has said and done. Today, Tesla’s high stock price indicates investors’ collective belief in Musk’s promises and protects Musk. Regulators don’t want to be accused of causing the company’s stock price to fall, thereby destroying the wealth of many investors and, as a result, footing the cost of defending against numerous shareholder lawsuits.</p><p>Furthermore, Musk can claim Tesla’s elevated stock price and the wealth it endows is what he needs to fulfill his outlandish promises over time. However, should Tesla’s stock price ever reflect realistic expectations for the company, authorities may feel emboldened to pursue legal or regulatory action against Musk and/or Tesla. Credible claims can be made for several offenses, including:</p><ul><li>stock and cryptocurrency manipulation</li><li>false advertising of Full Self Driving (FSD)</li><li>ignoring safety authorities</li><li>neglecting to file documentation on time related to his purchase of Twitter’s shares</li><li>and other claims of dubious veracity</li></ul><p><b>What Will Regulators Do When the Bubble Pops?</b></p><p>Musk has positioned himself as a pop-culture icon. Though society loves to build up celebrities, so too does it love tearing them down even more. Once Tesla’s stock price falls from its overly inflated levels, Musk will lose his cover that has protected him from all his unethical and arguably illegal behavior. Regulators are likely to come after Musk with knives out after all the humiliation they had to suffer at his hand.</p><p><b>Trouble on the Horizon</b></p><p>All the hype around Musk’s large stake in Twitter and the speculation around his plans for the social media platform takes focus away from the troubles, which are many, ahead for Tesla. Of course, that is likely his goal. Below we discuss the fundamentals of Tesla’s business, which cannot be wished away or made irrelevant with hype.</p><p><b>Incumbents Are Catching Up:</b> Tesla’s first-mover advantage has long been cited as reason enough for investors to pile their money into the company. However, that advantage is gone, and in some cases turning into a lag. Ford (F), Rivian (RIVN), and General Motors (GM) aim to produce EV trucks in 2022, but Tesla will be on the sidelines until at least 2023 before launching its Cybertruck.</p><p>The rising competition from incumbents means the days of Tesla’s rising profitability could be numbered. For starters, 26% of the company’s GAAP earnings in 2021 were from the sale of regulatory credits, not from the underlying economics of making and selling vehicles and other ancillary services.</p><p>Once incumbents increase production of EVs they will need to purchase fewer credits from Elon. That means Tesla needs to actually start <i>selling</i> <i>cars</i>to make money. The catch-22 is that for the company to sell more cars, it first needs to increase its production capacity. If Tesla’s succeeds in selling more cars capital expenditure and working capital are primed to grow along with sales. Tesla needs to build economies of scale before it can benefit from them.</p><p><b>Market Share Losses Continue:</b> Incumbent automakers have entered the EV market with scale and are already taking market share from Tesla. Per Figure 2, Tesla’s share of global EV sales fell from 16% in 2019 to 14% in 2021.</p><p>Tesla’s share of the U.S. EV market fell from 79% in2020to 70% in2021. With light truck sales comprising more than three out of every four vehicles sold in the U.S. in January 2022, Tesla falling behind in truck EVs means its share of the U.S. market could fall further.</p><p><b>Figure 2: Tesla’s Share of the Global EV Sales</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc4dd16dde86e1ab31f85bd8a2af4aee\" tg-width=\"630\" tg-height=\"260\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>TSLA Market Share Since 2019(New Constructs, LLC)</p><p>Sources: New Constructs, LLC, EV-volumes.com and Statista</p><p><b>Slow Start to 2022:</b>Though Teslaforecastedan at least 50% YoY rise in deliveries in 2022, the company is feeling the effects of supply chain problems – just like every other automaker. The company delivered 310,000 vehicles in the quarter, while consensus estimates were for 313,000.</p><p><b>Reverse DCF Math: Valuation Implies Tesla Will Own at Least 57% of the Global Passenger EV Market</b></p><p>Despite the increased competition, failure to meet delivery expectations, and diminutive share of the global EV market in 2021, Tesla’s valuation implies the company will own 57% of the global passenger EV market in 2030.</p><p>Even if Tesla increases the average selling price (ASP) per vehicle to $55K vs. ($49K in 2021), Tesla’s stock price at ~$1,100/share implies the firm will sell 15 million vehicles in 2030 versus ~936k in 2021. That figure represents 57% of the projected base case global EV passenger vehicle market in 2030 and the implied vehicle sales based on a lower ASP looks even more unrealistic.</p><p>To provide inarguably best-case scenarios for assessing the expectations reflected in Tesla’s stock price, we assume Tesla achieves profit margins 1.5x Toyota Motor Corp (TM) and triples its current auto manufacturing efficiency.</p><p>Per Figure 3, an $1,100/share price implies that, in 2030, Tesla will sell the following number of vehicles based on these ASP benchmarks:</p><ul><li>15 million vehicles – ASP of $55K (above average U.S. new car price of $47K in 2021)</li><li>7 million vehicles – ASP of $49K (equal to Tesla’s 2021 ASP[1])</li><li>21 million vehicles – ASP of $38K (equal to General Motors’ ASP[2] of $38K in 2021)</li></ul><p>If Tesla achieves those EV sales, the implied market share for the company would be the following (assuming global passenger EV sales reach 26 million in 2030, the base case projection from the IEA):</p><ul><li>57% for 15 million vehicles</li><li>64% for 17 million vehicles</li><li>83% for 21 million vehicles</li></ul><p>If we assume the IEA’s best case for global passenger EV sales in 2030, 47 million vehicles, the above vehicle sales represent:</p><ul><li>31% for 15 million vehicles</li><li>35% for 17 million vehicles</li><li>45% for 21 million vehicles</li></ul><p><b>Figure 3: Tesla’s Implied Vehicle Sales in 2030 to Justify $1,100/Share</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bad84793f241565c81ebb0d29b01242c\" tg-width=\"630\" tg-height=\"284\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>TSLA DCF Implied Vehicle Production(New Constructs, LLC)</p><p>Sources: New Constructs, LLC and company filings</p><p><b>Tesla Must Generate More Profits Than Apple For Investors to Make Money</b></p><p>Below are the assumptions we use in our reverse discounted cash flow model to calculate the implied production levels above.</p><p>Bulls should understand what Tesla needs to accomplish to justify ~$1,100/share:</p><ul><li>immediately achieve a 14% NOPAT margin (1.5x Toyota’s margin, which is the highest of the large-scale automakers we cover), compared to Tesla’s TTM margin of 8%) and</li><li>grow revenue by 32% compounded annually from 2022 to 2030.</li></ul><p>In this scenario, Tesla generates <i>$811 billion</i> in revenue in 2030, which is 116% of the combined revenues of Toyota, Stellantis (STLA), Ford, General Motors, and Honda (HMC) over the past twelve months. Tesla must replace the U.S. auto industry before 2030 to justify current valuations.</p><p>This scenario also implies Tesla grows net operating profit after-tax (NOPAT) by 2,458% from 2021 to 2030. In this scenario, Tesla generates $112 billion in NOPAT in 2030, or 12% higher than Apple’s (AAPL) TTM NOPAT, which, at $100 billion, is the highest of all companies we cover, and 65% higher than Microsoft (MSFT), the second-highest. Those companies have intertwined themselves in the lives of consumers and businesses around the world, which seems an unlikely feat for Tesla at this point.</p><p><b>TSLA Has 46% Downside If Morgan Stanley Is Right About Sales</b></p><p>If we assume Tesla reaches Morgan Stanley’s estimate of selling 8.1 million cars in 2030 (which implies a 31% share of the global passenger EV market in 2030), at an ASP of $55k, the stock is worth just $542/share. Details:</p><ul><li>NOPAT margin improves to 14% and</li><li>revenue grows 27% compounded annually over the next decade, then</li></ul><p>the stock is worth just $547/share today – a 46% downside to the current price. See the math behind this reverse DCF scenario. In this scenario, Tesla grows NOPAT to $62 billion, or nearly 14x its 2021 NOPAT, and just 7% below Alphabet’s (GOOGL) 2021 NOPAT.</p><p><b>TSLA Has 80%+ Downside Even with 27% Market Share and Realistic Margins</b></p><p>If we estimate more reasonable (but still very optimistic) margins and market share achievements for Tesla, the stock is worth just $200/share. Here’s the math:</p><ul><li>NOPAT margin improves to 9% (equal to Toyota’s TTM margin) and</li><li>revenue grows by consensus estimates from 2022 to 2024 and</li><li>revenue grows 17% a year from 2025 to 2030, then</li></ul><p>the stock is worth just $200/share today – an 80% downside to the current price.</p><p>In this scenario, Tesla sells 7 million cars (27% of the global passenger EV market in 2030) at an ASP of $47K (average new car price in U.S. in 2021) and grows NOPAT by 24% compounded annually from 2022 to 2030.</p><p>We also assume a more realistic NOPAT margin of 9% in this scenario, which is 1.3x higher than Toyota’s industry-leading five-year average NOPAT margin of 7%. Given the required capital requirements to fund manufacturing and match increased competition in the EV market, Tesla is unlikely to achieve and sustain a margin as high as 9% from 2022 to 2030. If Tesla fails to meet these expectations, then the stock is worth less than $200/share.</p><p>Figure 4 compares the firm’s historical NOPAT to the NOPAT implied in the above scenarios to illustrate just how high the expectations baked into Tesla’s stock price remain. For additional context, we show Toyota’s, General Motors’, and Apple’s TTM NOPAT.</p><p><b>Figure 4: Tesla’s Historical and Implied NOPAT: DCF Valuation Scenarios</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e43f865637ac4c84e8199df2b05d061\" tg-width=\"630\" tg-height=\"330\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>TSLA DCF Implied NOPAT(New Constructs, LLC)</p><p>Sources: New Constructs, LLC and company filings</p><p>Each of the above scenarios assumes Tesla’s invested capital grows 14% compounded annually through 2030. For reference, Tesla’s invested capital grew 49% compounded annually from 2011 to 2021 and 30% compounded annually since 2015.</p><p>An invested capital CAGR of 14% represents 1/3rdthe CAGR of Tesla’s property, plant, and equipment since 2011 and assumes the company can build future plants and produce cars 3x more efficiently than it has so far.</p><p>In other words, we aim to provide inarguably best-case scenarios for assessing the expectations for future market share and profits reflected in Tesla’s stock market valuation.</p><p><b>Tesla Won’t Be the Only One to Fall</b></p><p>Other meme stocks have taken pages from the Musk playbook and will likely suffer the same fate we expect Tesla to suffer once the game is up. GameStop (GME) promised to transform itself into an ecommerce powerhouse, yet the company continues to head in the opposite direction and earnings continue to disappoint. GameStop’s Core Earnings fell from -$200 million in fiscal 2021 to -$321 million in fiscal 2022.</p><p>Despite the company’s inability to quickly execute operational change, GameStop’s stock has remained well above a reasonable valuation thanks in part to announcing the launch of a marketplace for nonfungible tokens (NFTs) and partnerships with blockchain firms.</p><p>AMC Entertainment Holdings (AMC) has also run several Tesla-esque plays to prop up its stock. Indeed, the company’s CEO recently tweeted that the company is “playing on offense again” with its investment in a microcap gold mine. Before gold mines, the company got on the crypto bandwagon in 2021 by accepting Bitcoin, Ethereum, Bitcoin Cash, and Litecoin.</p><p>Beyond the repeated attempts at propping up their stocks, the fundamentally weak business models of Tesla, GameStop, and AMC Entertainment in highly competitive industries burn cash and continue to dilute shareholders whenever possible. Per Figure 5, despite combining for more than $1.1 trillion of market cap, Tesla, AMC Entertainment, and GameStop have a combined economic book value, our measure of the no growth value of a stock, of -$52 billion and -$4.3 billion of free cash flow over the past twelve months.</p><p><b>Figure 5: Meme Stock’s Market Cap, Economic Book Value &amp; FCF: TTM</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/add55782c8e6b0e8a891f84c9ec7421f\" tg-width=\"630\" tg-height=\"119\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Meme Stocks Market Cap, Economic Book Value, FCF(New Constructs, LLC)</p><p>Sources: New Constructs, LLC and company filings</p><p><i>This article originally published on April 14, 2022.</i></p><p><i>Disclosure: David Trainer, Kyle Guske II, and Matt Shuler receive no compensation to write about any specific stock, sector, style, or theme.</i></p><p>[1] Tesla’s ASP = (total automotive revenues – regulatory credits) / deliveries</p><p>[2] General Motors’ ASP = Vehicle, parts and accessories / wholesale vehicle sales</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs The End Near For Musk And Tesla?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-04-20 23:30 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4501979-is-the-end-near-for-musk-and-tesla><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryDespite recent gains, investors should consider selling Tesla and other meme stocks now, before institutional money bails.While regulators may still be too frightened to hold Musk accountable, ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4501979-is-the-end-near-for-musk-and-tesla\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4501979-is-the-end-near-for-musk-and-tesla","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1105569285","content_text":"SummaryDespite recent gains, investors should consider selling Tesla and other meme stocks now, before institutional money bails.While regulators may still be too frightened to hold Musk accountable, a change in public opinion would be far more consequential to Musk and his empire.The hype around Musk’s stake in Twitter and the speculation around his plans for the social media platform takes focus away from the troubles, which are many, ahead of Tesla.For years, Elon Musk has used hype to prop up Tesla’s stock. It’s worked so well that other companies have followed his lead. But now, we think the world has seen that the emperor has no clothes. The attempted Twitter (TWTR) takeover is yet another example of Musk bullying his way into what he wants and underscores how his super-star status cannot always convince people to overlook his irreverent, reckless, and potentially illegal behavior. As the recent lawsuit againstMusk shows, he is not completely immune from the consequences of his actions. Despite recent gains, investors should consider selling Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) and other meme stocks now, before institutional money bails.End of the Road for MuskMost investors are keenly aware of Musk’s long history of making grand promises that don’t come true – the Roadster, the Semi, the Cybertruck, full-self driving (FSD) etc. – and at times are blatantly unethical, such as tweeting “funding secured” to go private, and pumping Doge coin. But now, we have evidence that he may have acted illegally in the way he reported his purchases of Twitter stock. Given the clear rules about how investors should report large stakes in public companies – like what Musk has in Twitter – this case seems straightforward: Musk broke the rules.The next question is how severely he will be punished. If the past is any guide, regulators will not muster more than a slap on the wrist. The real question is how institutional investors will react to signs Musk has pushed the envelope too far.Institutional investors own Tesla stock more often because they must, given its influence on their performance, than because they see it as a good investment. Any investor with a rigorous process can see the stock is ridiculously overvalued; so, you own it for the “Musk effect”. Accordingly, the institutional investors’ decision to sell Tesla stock will be based on when Musk’s outsized influence begins to wane.We think that moment has come.Musk Meets His Maker: TwitterIn our view, Musk’s repeated rule-breaking behavior has finally gone too far. Details of the case are still emerging, but Musk’s failure to disclose his more than 5% stake in Twitter arguably hurt investors who sold shares after he crossed that ownership threshold. Instead, Musk kept purchasing shares until reaching a 9% stake in Twitter before disclosing his position. The initial class-action lawsuit and the potential for more have finally gotten the attention of investors, if not regulators.The poor reception Twitter’s employees gave the news of Musk’s stake is a very public rejection of his super-star influencer status and provide the first tangible evidence that maybe his star power has limitations. If a hostile takeover prompts a mass exodus of talent, then Musk might end up destroying the company in the process of buying it. That being said, the loudest voices in the company are not necessarily the most valuable.As more people join lawsuits against Musk, and Twitter employees continue to express their mistrust of the company’s largest shareholder, institutional investors may seize this moment to quietly unload their shares of overvalued Tesla stock. Now is the time to sell because the price of the stock to this point has been more a reflection of Musk’s ability to draw an audience than any underlying fundamental value in the company.Live by the Stunt, Die by the StuntUltimately, it appears that as much as Twitter was the launch pad for Musk’s super influence powers, his failure thus far to win the publicity battle could mark the beginning-of-the-end of his super-star status.Musk’s Twitter play, which is another in a long series of distractions, could end poorly for Musk. Instead of addressing Tesla’s issues, Musk appears to be attempting to position himself as a defender of free speech. The risk he faces is that instead of looking like a hero he looks more like a bully running an ego-driven takeover with little regard for the rules. While regulators may still be too frightened to hold Musk accountable (more on this below), a change in public opinion would be far more consequential to Musk and his empire.Tesla’s investors have not been impressed with Musk’s Twitter antics either, as the stock is down 11% since he announced his ownership in the social media giant. Likewise, the “Musk bump” in Twitter shares is likely to fade as investors realize the only value Musk brought was publicity, and not good publicity either. Although Twitter remains a popular platform, it has its own problems and suggestions such as removing a letter from its name can do more harm than good.Why Haven’t Regulators Done Anything Before Now?Tesla’s high stock price has, thus far, kept its CEO well beyond an arm’s length of regulators. Other executives in other times likely would have faced consequences for many of the things Musk has said and done. Today, Tesla’s high stock price indicates investors’ collective belief in Musk’s promises and protects Musk. Regulators don’t want to be accused of causing the company’s stock price to fall, thereby destroying the wealth of many investors and, as a result, footing the cost of defending against numerous shareholder lawsuits.Furthermore, Musk can claim Tesla’s elevated stock price and the wealth it endows is what he needs to fulfill his outlandish promises over time. However, should Tesla’s stock price ever reflect realistic expectations for the company, authorities may feel emboldened to pursue legal or regulatory action against Musk and/or Tesla. Credible claims can be made for several offenses, including:stock and cryptocurrency manipulationfalse advertising of Full Self Driving (FSD)ignoring safety authoritiesneglecting to file documentation on time related to his purchase of Twitter’s sharesand other claims of dubious veracityWhat Will Regulators Do When the Bubble Pops?Musk has positioned himself as a pop-culture icon. Though society loves to build up celebrities, so too does it love tearing them down even more. Once Tesla’s stock price falls from its overly inflated levels, Musk will lose his cover that has protected him from all his unethical and arguably illegal behavior. Regulators are likely to come after Musk with knives out after all the humiliation they had to suffer at his hand.Trouble on the HorizonAll the hype around Musk’s large stake in Twitter and the speculation around his plans for the social media platform takes focus away from the troubles, which are many, ahead for Tesla. Of course, that is likely his goal. Below we discuss the fundamentals of Tesla’s business, which cannot be wished away or made irrelevant with hype.Incumbents Are Catching Up: Tesla’s first-mover advantage has long been cited as reason enough for investors to pile their money into the company. However, that advantage is gone, and in some cases turning into a lag. Ford (F), Rivian (RIVN), and General Motors (GM) aim to produce EV trucks in 2022, but Tesla will be on the sidelines until at least 2023 before launching its Cybertruck.The rising competition from incumbents means the days of Tesla’s rising profitability could be numbered. For starters, 26% of the company’s GAAP earnings in 2021 were from the sale of regulatory credits, not from the underlying economics of making and selling vehicles and other ancillary services.Once incumbents increase production of EVs they will need to purchase fewer credits from Elon. That means Tesla needs to actually start selling carsto make money. The catch-22 is that for the company to sell more cars, it first needs to increase its production capacity. If Tesla’s succeeds in selling more cars capital expenditure and working capital are primed to grow along with sales. Tesla needs to build economies of scale before it can benefit from them.Market Share Losses Continue: Incumbent automakers have entered the EV market with scale and are already taking market share from Tesla. Per Figure 2, Tesla’s share of global EV sales fell from 16% in 2019 to 14% in 2021.Tesla’s share of the U.S. EV market fell from 79% in2020to 70% in2021. With light truck sales comprising more than three out of every four vehicles sold in the U.S. in January 2022, Tesla falling behind in truck EVs means its share of the U.S. market could fall further.Figure 2: Tesla’s Share of the Global EV SalesTSLA Market Share Since 2019(New Constructs, LLC)Sources: New Constructs, LLC, EV-volumes.com and StatistaSlow Start to 2022:Though Teslaforecastedan at least 50% YoY rise in deliveries in 2022, the company is feeling the effects of supply chain problems – just like every other automaker. The company delivered 310,000 vehicles in the quarter, while consensus estimates were for 313,000.Reverse DCF Math: Valuation Implies Tesla Will Own at Least 57% of the Global Passenger EV MarketDespite the increased competition, failure to meet delivery expectations, and diminutive share of the global EV market in 2021, Tesla’s valuation implies the company will own 57% of the global passenger EV market in 2030.Even if Tesla increases the average selling price (ASP) per vehicle to $55K vs. ($49K in 2021), Tesla’s stock price at ~$1,100/share implies the firm will sell 15 million vehicles in 2030 versus ~936k in 2021. That figure represents 57% of the projected base case global EV passenger vehicle market in 2030 and the implied vehicle sales based on a lower ASP looks even more unrealistic.To provide inarguably best-case scenarios for assessing the expectations reflected in Tesla’s stock price, we assume Tesla achieves profit margins 1.5x Toyota Motor Corp (TM) and triples its current auto manufacturing efficiency.Per Figure 3, an $1,100/share price implies that, in 2030, Tesla will sell the following number of vehicles based on these ASP benchmarks:15 million vehicles – ASP of $55K (above average U.S. new car price of $47K in 2021)7 million vehicles – ASP of $49K (equal to Tesla’s 2021 ASP[1])21 million vehicles – ASP of $38K (equal to General Motors’ ASP[2] of $38K in 2021)If Tesla achieves those EV sales, the implied market share for the company would be the following (assuming global passenger EV sales reach 26 million in 2030, the base case projection from the IEA):57% for 15 million vehicles64% for 17 million vehicles83% for 21 million vehiclesIf we assume the IEA’s best case for global passenger EV sales in 2030, 47 million vehicles, the above vehicle sales represent:31% for 15 million vehicles35% for 17 million vehicles45% for 21 million vehiclesFigure 3: Tesla’s Implied Vehicle Sales in 2030 to Justify $1,100/ShareTSLA DCF Implied Vehicle Production(New Constructs, LLC)Sources: New Constructs, LLC and company filingsTesla Must Generate More Profits Than Apple For Investors to Make MoneyBelow are the assumptions we use in our reverse discounted cash flow model to calculate the implied production levels above.Bulls should understand what Tesla needs to accomplish to justify ~$1,100/share:immediately achieve a 14% NOPAT margin (1.5x Toyota’s margin, which is the highest of the large-scale automakers we cover), compared to Tesla’s TTM margin of 8%) andgrow revenue by 32% compounded annually from 2022 to 2030.In this scenario, Tesla generates $811 billion in revenue in 2030, which is 116% of the combined revenues of Toyota, Stellantis (STLA), Ford, General Motors, and Honda (HMC) over the past twelve months. Tesla must replace the U.S. auto industry before 2030 to justify current valuations.This scenario also implies Tesla grows net operating profit after-tax (NOPAT) by 2,458% from 2021 to 2030. In this scenario, Tesla generates $112 billion in NOPAT in 2030, or 12% higher than Apple’s (AAPL) TTM NOPAT, which, at $100 billion, is the highest of all companies we cover, and 65% higher than Microsoft (MSFT), the second-highest. Those companies have intertwined themselves in the lives of consumers and businesses around the world, which seems an unlikely feat for Tesla at this point.TSLA Has 46% Downside If Morgan Stanley Is Right About SalesIf we assume Tesla reaches Morgan Stanley’s estimate of selling 8.1 million cars in 2030 (which implies a 31% share of the global passenger EV market in 2030), at an ASP of $55k, the stock is worth just $542/share. Details:NOPAT margin improves to 14% andrevenue grows 27% compounded annually over the next decade, thenthe stock is worth just $547/share today – a 46% downside to the current price. See the math behind this reverse DCF scenario. In this scenario, Tesla grows NOPAT to $62 billion, or nearly 14x its 2021 NOPAT, and just 7% below Alphabet’s (GOOGL) 2021 NOPAT.TSLA Has 80%+ Downside Even with 27% Market Share and Realistic MarginsIf we estimate more reasonable (but still very optimistic) margins and market share achievements for Tesla, the stock is worth just $200/share. Here’s the math:NOPAT margin improves to 9% (equal to Toyota’s TTM margin) andrevenue grows by consensus estimates from 2022 to 2024 andrevenue grows 17% a year from 2025 to 2030, thenthe stock is worth just $200/share today – an 80% downside to the current price.In this scenario, Tesla sells 7 million cars (27% of the global passenger EV market in 2030) at an ASP of $47K (average new car price in U.S. in 2021) and grows NOPAT by 24% compounded annually from 2022 to 2030.We also assume a more realistic NOPAT margin of 9% in this scenario, which is 1.3x higher than Toyota’s industry-leading five-year average NOPAT margin of 7%. Given the required capital requirements to fund manufacturing and match increased competition in the EV market, Tesla is unlikely to achieve and sustain a margin as high as 9% from 2022 to 2030. If Tesla fails to meet these expectations, then the stock is worth less than $200/share.Figure 4 compares the firm’s historical NOPAT to the NOPAT implied in the above scenarios to illustrate just how high the expectations baked into Tesla’s stock price remain. For additional context, we show Toyota’s, General Motors’, and Apple’s TTM NOPAT.Figure 4: Tesla’s Historical and Implied NOPAT: DCF Valuation ScenariosTSLA DCF Implied NOPAT(New Constructs, LLC)Sources: New Constructs, LLC and company filingsEach of the above scenarios assumes Tesla’s invested capital grows 14% compounded annually through 2030. For reference, Tesla’s invested capital grew 49% compounded annually from 2011 to 2021 and 30% compounded annually since 2015.An invested capital CAGR of 14% represents 1/3rdthe CAGR of Tesla’s property, plant, and equipment since 2011 and assumes the company can build future plants and produce cars 3x more efficiently than it has so far.In other words, we aim to provide inarguably best-case scenarios for assessing the expectations for future market share and profits reflected in Tesla’s stock market valuation.Tesla Won’t Be the Only One to FallOther meme stocks have taken pages from the Musk playbook and will likely suffer the same fate we expect Tesla to suffer once the game is up. GameStop (GME) promised to transform itself into an ecommerce powerhouse, yet the company continues to head in the opposite direction and earnings continue to disappoint. GameStop’s Core Earnings fell from -$200 million in fiscal 2021 to -$321 million in fiscal 2022.Despite the company’s inability to quickly execute operational change, GameStop’s stock has remained well above a reasonable valuation thanks in part to announcing the launch of a marketplace for nonfungible tokens (NFTs) and partnerships with blockchain firms.AMC Entertainment Holdings (AMC) has also run several Tesla-esque plays to prop up its stock. Indeed, the company’s CEO recently tweeted that the company is “playing on offense again” with its investment in a microcap gold mine. Before gold mines, the company got on the crypto bandwagon in 2021 by accepting Bitcoin, Ethereum, Bitcoin Cash, and Litecoin.Beyond the repeated attempts at propping up their stocks, the fundamentally weak business models of Tesla, GameStop, and AMC Entertainment in highly competitive industries burn cash and continue to dilute shareholders whenever possible. Per Figure 5, despite combining for more than $1.1 trillion of market cap, Tesla, AMC Entertainment, and GameStop have a combined economic book value, our measure of the no growth value of a stock, of -$52 billion and -$4.3 billion of free cash flow over the past twelve months.Figure 5: Meme Stock’s Market Cap, Economic Book Value & FCF: TTMMeme Stocks Market Cap, Economic Book Value, FCF(New Constructs, LLC)Sources: New Constructs, LLC and company filingsThis article originally published on April 14, 2022.Disclosure: David Trainer, Kyle Guske II, and Matt Shuler receive no compensation to write about any specific stock, sector, style, or theme.[1] Tesla’s ASP = (total automotive revenues – regulatory credits) / deliveries[2] General Motors’ ASP = Vehicle, parts and accessories / wholesale vehicle sales","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":92,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9088740681,"gmtCreate":1650386093194,"gmtModify":1676534711456,"author":{"id":"4111462698941142","authorId":"4111462698941142","name":"7f231b67","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4111462698941142","authorIdStr":"4111462698941142"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9088740681","repostId":"9081992328","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9081992328,"gmtCreate":1650176703138,"gmtModify":1676534664103,"author":{"id":"3559581955535845","authorId":"3559581955535845","name":"koolgal","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c05274d88ffc0434623e57350c52c70a","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559581955535845","authorIdStr":"3559581955535845"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/O39.SI\">$OVERSEA-CHINESE BANKING CORP(O39.SI)$</a>&nbsp;is the most undervalued and oversold of the 3 Singapore banks.&nbsp; It recently faced some headwinds of banking scam but has weathered the storm reasonably well.With interest rates rising and a hot property market, OCBC should do well in the 2nd half of 2022.The Financial Analysts have rated OCBC as a Buy with Target Price of between 14.22and 14.40.The latest earnings report showed that OCBC was 35% better in profits in&nbsp;2021 compared to 2022.&nbsp;I intend to keep&nbsp;<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/O39.SI\">$OVERSEA-CHINESE BANKING CORP(O39.SI)$</a>&nbsp;in my long term portfolio as I believe it is a strong and reliable bank with an excellent management team.&nbsp; It also pays steady dividends","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/O39.SI\">$OVERSEA-CHINESE BANKING CORP(O39.SI)$</a>&nbsp;is the most undervalued and oversold of the 3 Singapore banks.&nbsp; It recently faced some headwinds of banking scam but has weathered the storm reasonably well.With interest rates rising and a hot property market, OCBC should do well in the 2nd half of 2022.The Financial Analysts have rated OCBC as a Buy with Target Price of between 14.22and 14.40.The latest earnings report showed that OCBC was 35% better in profits in&nbsp;2021 compared to 2022.&nbsp;I intend to keep&nbsp;<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/O39.SI\">$OVERSEA-CHINESE BANKING CORP(O39.SI)$</a>&nbsp;in my long term portfolio as I believe it is a strong and reliable bank with an excellent management team.&nbsp; It also pays steady dividends","text":"$OVERSEA-CHINESE BANKING CORP(O39.SI)$ is the most undervalued and oversold of the 3 Singapore banks. It recently faced some headwinds of banking scam but has weathered the storm reasonably well.With interest rates rising and a hot property market, OCBC should do well in the 2nd half of 2022.The Financial Analysts have rated OCBC as a Buy with Target Price of between 14.22and 14.40.The latest earnings report showed that OCBC was 35% better in profits in 2021 compared to 2022. I intend to keep $OVERSEA-CHINESE BANKING CORP(O39.SI)$ in my long term portfolio as I believe it is a strong and reliable bank with an excellent management team. It also pays steady dividends","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/dfad3a6689ca6c7734daa690df953c6f","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9081992328","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":43,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9088251304,"gmtCreate":1650353668710,"gmtModify":1676534703542,"author":{"id":"4111462698941142","authorId":"4111462698941142","name":"7f231b67","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4111462698941142","authorIdStr":"4111462698941142"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SST\">$System1(SST)$</a>very bad","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SST\">$System1(SST)$</a>very bad","text":"$System1(SST)$very bad","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a149bcc89ae15c21593e8dc557eb38a8","width":"1440","height":"2560"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9088251304","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":498,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3573677486154929","authorId":"3573677486154929","name":"GarfieldLee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a282fc470586cdcaaecc2a102e0d42b","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3573677486154929","authorIdStr":"3573677486154929"},"content":"Give me a chance to minimise my loss please","text":"Give me a chance to minimise my loss please","html":"Give me a chance to minimise my loss please"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9088259706,"gmtCreate":1650353500757,"gmtModify":1676534703510,"author":{"id":"4111462698941142","authorId":"4111462698941142","name":"7f231b67","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4111462698941142","authorIdStr":"4111462698941142"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/MANU\">$Manchester United PLC(MANU)$</a>good","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/MANU\">$Manchester United PLC(MANU)$</a>good","text":"$Manchester United PLC(MANU)$good","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0356195cfa6359e09cc6cfbe1d3f3871","width":"1440","height":"4639"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9088259706","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":101,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9083124380,"gmtCreate":1650081083178,"gmtModify":1676534644023,"author":{"id":"4111462698941142","authorId":"4111462698941142","name":"7f231b67","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4111462698941142","authorIdStr":"4111462698941142"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMPL\">$AmplitudeE, Inc.(AMPL)$</a>next target","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMPL\">$AmplitudeE, Inc.(AMPL)$</a>next target","text":"$AmplitudeE, Inc.(AMPL)$next target","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/63ca3438e8430b91e90aa132f92446bd","width":"1440","height":"4639"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9083124380","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":82,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9089293377,"gmtCreate":1649991821038,"gmtModify":1676534624705,"author":{"id":"4111462698941142","authorId":"4111462698941142","name":"7f231b67","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4111462698941142","authorIdStr":"4111462698941142"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9089293377","repostId":"2227671343","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2227671343","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1649975897,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2227671343?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-04-15 06:38","market":"us","language":"en","title":"U.S. Stocks Slide as Rising Bond Yields Hit Growth Stocks","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2227671343","media":"Reuters","summary":"* Twitter slips on Elon Musk's $43 bln buyout offer* Big banks beat expectations, report profit drop","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>* <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWTR\">Twitter</a> slips on Elon Musk&#39;s $43 bln buyout offer</p><p>* Big banks beat expectations, report profit drops</p><p>* All three major U.S. stock indexes post weekly declines</p><p>* Indexes down: Dow 0.33%, S&amp;P 1.21%, Nasdaq 2.14%</p><p>NEW YORK, April 14 (Reuters) - Wall Street closed lower on Thursday at the end of a holiday-shortened week as bond yields resumed their uphill climb and investors contended with mixed earnings and economic data.</p><p>All three major U.S. stock indexes posted weekly losses ahead of the Good Friday holiday.</p><p>&#34;It’s a combination of continued worries still there,&#34; said Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at LPL Financial in Charlotte, North Carolina. &#34;It&#39;s a mixed bag earning season so far, and that, coupled with high inflation and the hawkish Fed have led to selling ahead of the holiday weekend.&#34;</p><p>Rising 10-year Treasury yields pressured growth stocks, dragging the S&amp;P 500 and the Nasdaq deeply into negative territory, while the Dow posted a more modest loss.</p><p>&#34;The higher yields pressure higher growth stocks as their net present value ... takes a hit when yields go higher,&#34; Detrick said.</p><p>A quartet of large U.S. banks shifted the first quarter reporting season into overdrive, with Goldman Sachs Group Inc , Citigroup Inc, Morgan Stanley, and Wells Fargo &amp; Co all posting results.</p><p>While all four beat Street estimates, they also reported steep profit declines. Their share price reaction was mixed, and were last moving in the range of up 1.6% (Citigroup) to down by 4.5% (Wells Fargo). The broader S&amp;P 500 Finance index fell 1.0%.</p><p>&#34;There’s some concerns this earnings season,&#34; Detrick added. &#34;Expectations are the lowest since the recovery started and it&#39;s got investors cautious of how companies will step up to the earnings altar in the comings weeks.&#34;</p><p>A host of economic data showed spiking gasoline prices helped retail sales beat consensus and prompted the largest jump in import prices in nearly 11 years.</p><p>The data falls in lockstep with other recent indicators, which appear to cement aggressive inflation-curbing actions from the Federal Reserve in the coming months, including a series of 50 basis point interest rate hikes.</p><p>Tesla Inc Chairman Elon Musk offered to take Twitter Inc private with a $41 billion cash offer. The social media company&#39;s shares oscillated throughout the session but closed down 1.7%.</p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 113.36 points, or 0.33%, to 34,451.23, the S&amp;P 500 lost 54 points, or 1.21%, to 4,392.59 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 292.51 points, or 2.14%, to 13,351.08.</p><p>Of the 11 major sectors in the S&amp;P 500, tech shares fared the worst, sliding 2.5%.</p><p>The first-quarter reporting season is still in its infancy, with 34 of the companies in the S&amp;P 500 having reported.</p><p>Analysts now expect aggregate annual S&amp;P 500 earnings growth of 6.3%, less optimistic than the 7.5% growth projected at the beginning of the year.</p><p>Thursday marked the monthly expiration for options contracts, an occurrence that has in the recent past helped amplify stock market gyrations as investors make adjustments to account for millions of expiring options contracts on stocks, ETFs and indexes.</p><p>Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 1.83-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 2.02-to-1 ratio favored decliners.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 posted 33 new 52-week highs and 14 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 66 new highs and 218 new lows.</p><p>Volume on U.S. exchanges was 10.45 billion shares, compared with the 12.22 billion average over the last 20 trading days.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. Stocks Slide as Rising Bond Yields Hit Growth Stocks</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. Stocks Slide as Rising Bond Yields Hit Growth Stocks\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-04-15 06:38</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>* <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWTR\">Twitter</a> slips on Elon Musk&#39;s $43 bln buyout offer</p><p>* Big banks beat expectations, report profit drops</p><p>* All three major U.S. stock indexes post weekly declines</p><p>* Indexes down: Dow 0.33%, S&amp;P 1.21%, Nasdaq 2.14%</p><p>NEW YORK, April 14 (Reuters) - Wall Street closed lower on Thursday at the end of a holiday-shortened week as bond yields resumed their uphill climb and investors contended with mixed earnings and economic data.</p><p>All three major U.S. stock indexes posted weekly losses ahead of the Good Friday holiday.</p><p>&#34;It’s a combination of continued worries still there,&#34; said Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at LPL Financial in Charlotte, North Carolina. &#34;It&#39;s a mixed bag earning season so far, and that, coupled with high inflation and the hawkish Fed have led to selling ahead of the holiday weekend.&#34;</p><p>Rising 10-year Treasury yields pressured growth stocks, dragging the S&amp;P 500 and the Nasdaq deeply into negative territory, while the Dow posted a more modest loss.</p><p>&#34;The higher yields pressure higher growth stocks as their net present value ... takes a hit when yields go higher,&#34; Detrick said.</p><p>A quartet of large U.S. banks shifted the first quarter reporting season into overdrive, with Goldman Sachs Group Inc , Citigroup Inc, Morgan Stanley, and Wells Fargo &amp; Co all posting results.</p><p>While all four beat Street estimates, they also reported steep profit declines. Their share price reaction was mixed, and were last moving in the range of up 1.6% (Citigroup) to down by 4.5% (Wells Fargo). The broader S&amp;P 500 Finance index fell 1.0%.</p><p>&#34;There’s some concerns this earnings season,&#34; Detrick added. &#34;Expectations are the lowest since the recovery started and it&#39;s got investors cautious of how companies will step up to the earnings altar in the comings weeks.&#34;</p><p>A host of economic data showed spiking gasoline prices helped retail sales beat consensus and prompted the largest jump in import prices in nearly 11 years.</p><p>The data falls in lockstep with other recent indicators, which appear to cement aggressive inflation-curbing actions from the Federal Reserve in the coming months, including a series of 50 basis point interest rate hikes.</p><p>Tesla Inc Chairman Elon Musk offered to take Twitter Inc private with a $41 billion cash offer. The social media company&#39;s shares oscillated throughout the session but closed down 1.7%.</p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 113.36 points, or 0.33%, to 34,451.23, the S&amp;P 500 lost 54 points, or 1.21%, to 4,392.59 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 292.51 points, or 2.14%, to 13,351.08.</p><p>Of the 11 major sectors in the S&amp;P 500, tech shares fared the worst, sliding 2.5%.</p><p>The first-quarter reporting season is still in its infancy, with 34 of the companies in the S&amp;P 500 having reported.</p><p>Analysts now expect aggregate annual S&amp;P 500 earnings growth of 6.3%, less optimistic than the 7.5% growth projected at the beginning of the year.</p><p>Thursday marked the monthly expiration for options contracts, an occurrence that has in the recent past helped amplify stock market gyrations as investors make adjustments to account for millions of expiring options contracts on stocks, ETFs and indexes.</p><p>Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 1.83-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 2.02-to-1 ratio favored decliners.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 posted 33 new 52-week highs and 14 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 66 new highs and 218 new lows.</p><p>Volume on U.S. exchanges was 10.45 billion shares, compared with the 12.22 billion average over the last 20 trading days.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4127":"投资银行业与经纪业","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","SANA":"Sana Biotechnology, Inc.","COMP":"Compass, Inc.","BK4511":"特斯拉概念","SPY":"标普500ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","BK4099":"汽车制造商","BK4139":"生物科技","BK4079":"房地产服务","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK4007":"制药","BK4207":"综合性银行","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","TSLA":"特斯拉",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","OEX":"标普100","SH":"标普500反向ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4501":"段永平概念","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4082":"医疗保健设备","BK4196":"保健护理服务","BK4574":"无人驾驶","LHDX":"Lucira Health, Inc.","C":"花旗","BK4555":"新能源车","WFC":"富国银行","TWTR":"Twitter","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","LABP":"Landos Biopharma, Inc.","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","MS":"摩根士丹利","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","BK4539":"次新股"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2227671343","content_text":"* Twitter slips on Elon Musk's $43 bln buyout offer* Big banks beat expectations, report profit drops* All three major U.S. stock indexes post weekly declines* Indexes down: Dow 0.33%, S&P 1.21%, Nasdaq 2.14%NEW YORK, April 14 (Reuters) - Wall Street closed lower on Thursday at the end of a holiday-shortened week as bond yields resumed their uphill climb and investors contended with mixed earnings and economic data.All three major U.S. stock indexes posted weekly losses ahead of the Good Friday holiday.\"It’s a combination of continued worries still there,\" said Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at LPL Financial in Charlotte, North Carolina. \"It's a mixed bag earning season so far, and that, coupled with high inflation and the hawkish Fed have led to selling ahead of the holiday weekend.\"Rising 10-year Treasury yields pressured growth stocks, dragging the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq deeply into negative territory, while the Dow posted a more modest loss.\"The higher yields pressure higher growth stocks as their net present value ... takes a hit when yields go higher,\" Detrick said.A quartet of large U.S. banks shifted the first quarter reporting season into overdrive, with Goldman Sachs Group Inc , Citigroup Inc, Morgan Stanley, and Wells Fargo & Co all posting results.While all four beat Street estimates, they also reported steep profit declines. Their share price reaction was mixed, and were last moving in the range of up 1.6% (Citigroup) to down by 4.5% (Wells Fargo). The broader S&P 500 Finance index fell 1.0%.\"There’s some concerns this earnings season,\" Detrick added. \"Expectations are the lowest since the recovery started and it's got investors cautious of how companies will step up to the earnings altar in the comings weeks.\"A host of economic data showed spiking gasoline prices helped retail sales beat consensus and prompted the largest jump in import prices in nearly 11 years.The data falls in lockstep with other recent indicators, which appear to cement aggressive inflation-curbing actions from the Federal Reserve in the coming months, including a series of 50 basis point interest rate hikes.Tesla Inc Chairman Elon Musk offered to take Twitter Inc private with a $41 billion cash offer. The social media company's shares oscillated throughout the session but closed down 1.7%.The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 113.36 points, or 0.33%, to 34,451.23, the S&P 500 lost 54 points, or 1.21%, to 4,392.59 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 292.51 points, or 2.14%, to 13,351.08.Of the 11 major sectors in the S&P 500, tech shares fared the worst, sliding 2.5%.The first-quarter reporting season is still in its infancy, with 34 of the companies in the S&P 500 having reported.Analysts now expect aggregate annual S&P 500 earnings growth of 6.3%, less optimistic than the 7.5% growth projected at the beginning of the year.Thursday marked the monthly expiration for options contracts, an occurrence that has in the recent past helped amplify stock market gyrations as investors make adjustments to account for millions of expiring options contracts on stocks, ETFs and indexes.Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 1.83-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 2.02-to-1 ratio favored decliners.The S&P 500 posted 33 new 52-week highs and 14 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 66 new highs and 218 new lows.Volume on U.S. exchanges was 10.45 billion shares, compared with the 12.22 billion average over the last 20 trading days.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":124,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9088251304,"gmtCreate":1650353668710,"gmtModify":1676534703542,"author":{"id":"4111462698941142","authorId":"4111462698941142","name":"7f231b67","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4111462698941142","authorIdStr":"4111462698941142"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SST\">$System1(SST)$</a>very bad","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SST\">$System1(SST)$</a>very bad","text":"$System1(SST)$very 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it","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4746bcea65864037bb9fcc03338e0c44","width":"1440","height":"2560"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9085139763","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":613,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9089293377,"gmtCreate":1649991821038,"gmtModify":1676534624705,"author":{"id":"4111462698941142","authorId":"4111462698941142","name":"7f231b67","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4111462698941142","authorIdStr":"4111462698941142"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9089293377","repostId":"2227671343","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":124,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9088259706,"gmtCreate":1650353500757,"gmtModify":1676534703510,"author":{"id":"4111462698941142","authorId":"4111462698941142","name":"7f231b67","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4111462698941142","authorIdStr":"4111462698941142"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/MANU\">$Manchester United PLC(MANU)$</a>good","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/MANU\">$Manchester United PLC(MANU)$</a>good","text":"$Manchester United PLC(MANU)$good","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0356195cfa6359e09cc6cfbe1d3f3871","width":"1440","height":"4639"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9088259706","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":101,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9017978982,"gmtCreate":1649740310547,"gmtModify":1676534561982,"author":{"id":"4111462698941142","authorId":"4111462698941142","name":"7f231b67","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4111462698941142","authorIdStr":"4111462698941142"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SST\">$System1(SST)$</a>like","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SST\">$System1(SST)$</a>like","text":"$System1(SST)$like","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f9cfc0aa6b1b8d6a25a21f3ffe2fa2ae","width":"1440","height":"4639"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9017978982","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":85,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9083124380,"gmtCreate":1650081083178,"gmtModify":1676534644023,"author":{"id":"4111462698941142","authorId":"4111462698941142","name":"7f231b67","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4111462698941142","authorIdStr":"4111462698941142"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMPL\">$AmplitudeE, Inc.(AMPL)$</a>next 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href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SOFI\">$SoFi Technologies Inc.(SOFI)$</a>buy more","text":"$SoFi Technologies Inc.(SOFI)$buy more","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9080513220","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":62,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9017971082,"gmtCreate":1649740244698,"gmtModify":1676534561966,"author":{"id":"4111462698941142","authorId":"4111462698941142","name":"7f231b67","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4111462698941142","authorIdStr":"4111462698941142"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9017971082","repostId":"1117213474","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1117213474","pubTimestamp":1649734854,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1117213474?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-04-12 11:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Earnings Season Poses Next Trial for Volatile Stock Market","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1117213474","media":"The Wall Street Journal","summary":"Investors will scour the reports for signs of how businesses are coping with higher costs for everyt","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Investors will scour the reports for signs of how businesses are coping with higher costs for everything from energy to labor</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/548da717f13080c4dcc23f824eb321f9\" tg-width=\"1290\" tg-height=\"859\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>CarMax Inc. is among the companies expected to report earnings this week.</span></p><p>Inflation is making winners and losers of the companies reporting earnings in the coming weeks.</p><p>High prices are fattening the winners’ bottom lines—earnings expectations are sky-high for energy companies, for instance. The losers are saddled with higher costs that eat into their profits.</p><p>“This quarter we’re going to find out who can pass on costs and who can’t,” said Joe Quinlan, head of CIO market strategy for Merrill and Bank of America Private Bank. “This is going to be a revealing quarter in terms of who’s at risk of these inflationary pressures.”</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 has fallen 7.4% to start 2022 as investors prepare for the Federal Reserve to dial back its support of the economy in an attempt to control rising prices. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite has retreated even further and is now down 14% for the year.</p><p>As U.S. corporations unveil their quarterly results, investors will search for signs of how businesses are coping with higher costs for everything from energy to labor. Those signals, coupled with clues about how managers expect their businesses to perform in the coming quarters, could help stocks recover some of their momentum—or add further stress.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b71223334aaf1a7f9e8d4d7a4fd9b661\" tg-width=\"434\" tg-height=\"561\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Investors this week will parse earnings reports from big financial companies including JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co., BlackRock Inc. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc., as well as CarMax Inc., Delta Air Lines Inc. and UnitedHealth Group Inc.</p><p>They also will scrutinize fresh inflation data after a report last month showed the fastest climb in the consumer-price index in 40 years. Minutes released last week from the Federal Reserve’s March meeting, when the central bank approved its first interest-rate increase in more than three years, suggested many officialscould support a larger half-percentage-pointincrease at future meetings, especially if inflation remains high.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb3379acece467d362435110969848fb\" tg-width=\"422\" tg-height=\"570\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Nike Inc., which reported higher sales from a year earlier but lower earnings, said higher costs for freight and logistics weighed on its profit.Darden Restaurants Inc., the parent company of Olive Garden,cut its financial guidance and raised its forecast for inflation. A Darden executive said the company raised prices last quarter and is considering whether to raise them further.</p><p>Rising costs are leading many investors to focus on the profit margins that companies can wring out of their operations.</p><p>The net profit margin for the S&amp;P 500 is projected to come in at 12.1% for the first quarter, above the five-year average of 11.2% but down from the record 13.1% in the second quarter of 2021, according to FactSet.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ffb11912ff6aa24486ebb3870097f7b\" tg-width=\"1050\" tg-height=\"699\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Investors will examine earnings reports from companies including Delta Air Lines Inc. to see how managers are responding to inflation.</span></p><p>“If profit margins come down substantially, I could see that being something that market participants are paying closer attention to,” said Rafia Hasan, chief investment officer at Wipfli Financial Advisors. “If there’s a negative surprise there, that could be something that is a risk to the market.”</p><p>Companies are still expected to report growth in profits, but not at the levels seen last year, when results were being measured against the knocked-down earnings of the early pandemic. Analysts estimate that earnings from companies in the S&amp;P 500 rose 4.5% in the first quarter year over year, FactSet data show. In the fourth quarter of 2021, they surged 31%.</p><p>The projected growth isn’t evenly distributed among industries. Companies in the energy sector are expected to more than triple their earnings, while the industrials and materials groups are projected to report increases of more than 30%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d8b73790c23d0844154f4647dfcf884\" tg-width=\"962\" tg-height=\"695\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Analysts are projecting lower profits, by contrast, from the financial, consumer-discretionary and communication-services segments.</p><p>As the economy ran into obstacles in the early months of 2022, from the surge in the Omicron variant of Covid-19 to the war in Ukraine and sanctions against Russia, analysts trimmed their forecasts for first-quarter profit growth.</p><p>But they have raised growth estimates for the rest of the year. Earnings are expected to grow 9.8% in 2022, up from the 7.1% increase projected on Dec. 31.</p><p>That has some money managers worried that the market isn’t fully factoring in the headwinds of tighter monetary policy and high inflation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f521a14e61d1e1c1780edc1e6f25aa2b\" tg-width=\"433\" tg-height=\"569\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>“Earnings expectations for the full year shouldn’t be rising under these conditions,” said Kent Insley, chief investment officer at Tiedemann Advisors. “There’s still more optimism in the marketplace than is deserved.”</p><p>Many investors expect the market is in for a bumpy road as the year continues, with the Fed raising rates, inflation reports drawing close attention and midterm elections approaching in November.</p><p>While the market pullback has helped stocks look cheaper than they did a few months ago, they are still valued above longer-term norms. The S&amp;P 500 traded late last week at 19.4 times its projected earnings over the next 12 months, down from 21.5 at the end of last year but above the five-year average of 18.9.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0b3284a870b79846f24b6aba0f6426f\" tg-width=\"975\" tg-height=\"694\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>If companies do produce higher profits, investors say that could help the market find its path higher.</p><p>“To the extent we do see the earnings growth come through, that would be a positive and something for U.S. equity investors to sort of use as a North Star as we deal with a lot of volatility,” said Nick Gaskell, portfolio manager at Eaton Vance WaterOak Advisors.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Earnings Season Poses Next Trial for Volatile Stock Market</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nEarnings Season Poses Next Trial for Volatile Stock Market\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-04-12 11:40 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.wsj.com/articles/earnings-season-poses-next-trial-for-volatile-stock-market-11649610255?mod=markets_lead_pos5><strong>The Wall Street Journal</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Investors will scour the reports for signs of how businesses are coping with higher costs for everything from energy to laborCarMax Inc. is among the companies expected to report earnings this week....</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/earnings-season-poses-next-trial-for-volatile-stock-market-11649610255?mod=markets_lead_pos5\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.wsj.com/articles/earnings-season-poses-next-trial-for-volatile-stock-market-11649610255?mod=markets_lead_pos5","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1117213474","content_text":"Investors will scour the reports for signs of how businesses are coping with higher costs for everything from energy to laborCarMax Inc. is among the companies expected to report earnings this week.Inflation is making winners and losers of the companies reporting earnings in the coming weeks.High prices are fattening the winners’ bottom lines—earnings expectations are sky-high for energy companies, for instance. The losers are saddled with higher costs that eat into their profits.“This quarter we’re going to find out who can pass on costs and who can’t,” said Joe Quinlan, head of CIO market strategy for Merrill and Bank of America Private Bank. “This is going to be a revealing quarter in terms of who’s at risk of these inflationary pressures.”The S&P 500 has fallen 7.4% to start 2022 as investors prepare for the Federal Reserve to dial back its support of the economy in an attempt to control rising prices. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite has retreated even further and is now down 14% for the year.As U.S. corporations unveil their quarterly results, investors will search for signs of how businesses are coping with higher costs for everything from energy to labor. Those signals, coupled with clues about how managers expect their businesses to perform in the coming quarters, could help stocks recover some of their momentum—or add further stress.Investors this week will parse earnings reports from big financial companies including JPMorgan Chase & Co., BlackRock Inc. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc., as well as CarMax Inc., Delta Air Lines Inc. and UnitedHealth Group Inc.They also will scrutinize fresh inflation data after a report last month showed the fastest climb in the consumer-price index in 40 years. Minutes released last week from the Federal Reserve’s March meeting, when the central bank approved its first interest-rate increase in more than three years, suggested many officialscould support a larger half-percentage-pointincrease at future meetings, especially if inflation remains high.Nike Inc., which reported higher sales from a year earlier but lower earnings, said higher costs for freight and logistics weighed on its profit.Darden Restaurants Inc., the parent company of Olive Garden,cut its financial guidance and raised its forecast for inflation. A Darden executive said the company raised prices last quarter and is considering whether to raise them further.Rising costs are leading many investors to focus on the profit margins that companies can wring out of their operations.The net profit margin for the S&P 500 is projected to come in at 12.1% for the first quarter, above the five-year average of 11.2% but down from the record 13.1% in the second quarter of 2021, according to FactSet.Investors will examine earnings reports from companies including Delta Air Lines Inc. to see how managers are responding to inflation.“If profit margins come down substantially, I could see that being something that market participants are paying closer attention to,” said Rafia Hasan, chief investment officer at Wipfli Financial Advisors. “If there’s a negative surprise there, that could be something that is a risk to the market.”Companies are still expected to report growth in profits, but not at the levels seen last year, when results were being measured against the knocked-down earnings of the early pandemic. Analysts estimate that earnings from companies in the S&P 500 rose 4.5% in the first quarter year over year, FactSet data show. In the fourth quarter of 2021, they surged 31%.The projected growth isn’t evenly distributed among industries. Companies in the energy sector are expected to more than triple their earnings, while the industrials and materials groups are projected to report increases of more than 30%.Analysts are projecting lower profits, by contrast, from the financial, consumer-discretionary and communication-services segments.As the economy ran into obstacles in the early months of 2022, from the surge in the Omicron variant of Covid-19 to the war in Ukraine and sanctions against Russia, analysts trimmed their forecasts for first-quarter profit growth.But they have raised growth estimates for the rest of the year. Earnings are expected to grow 9.8% in 2022, up from the 7.1% increase projected on Dec. 31.That has some money managers worried that the market isn’t fully factoring in the headwinds of tighter monetary policy and high inflation.“Earnings expectations for the full year shouldn’t be rising under these conditions,” said Kent Insley, chief investment officer at Tiedemann Advisors. “There’s still more optimism in the marketplace than is deserved.”Many investors expect the market is in for a bumpy road as the year continues, with the Fed raising rates, inflation reports drawing close attention and midterm elections approaching in November.While the market pullback has helped stocks look cheaper than they did a few months ago, they are still valued above longer-term norms. The S&P 500 traded late last week at 19.4 times its projected earnings over the next 12 months, down from 21.5 at the end of last year but above the five-year average of 18.9.If companies do produce higher profits, investors say that could help the market find its path higher.“To the extent we do see the earnings growth come through, that would be a positive and something for U.S. equity investors to sort of use as a North Star as we deal with a lot of volatility,” said Nick Gaskell, portfolio manager at Eaton Vance WaterOak Advisors.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":129,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9061501067,"gmtCreate":1651635637570,"gmtModify":1676534940646,"author":{"id":"4111462698941142","authorId":"4111462698941142","name":"7f231b67","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4111462698941142","authorIdStr":"4111462698941142"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SST\">$System1(SST)$</a>not so good","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SST\">$System1(SST)$</a>not so good","text":"$System1(SST)$not so good","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/fe97b655337b45faef08b262df406d00","width":"1440","height":"2560"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9061501067","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":625,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9060493833,"gmtCreate":1651187184689,"gmtModify":1676534864566,"author":{"id":"4111462698941142","authorId":"4111462698941142","name":"7f231b67","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4111462698941142","authorIdStr":"4111462698941142"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SST\">$System1(SST)$</a>..","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SST\">$System1(SST)$</a>..","text":"$System1(SST)$..","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/38b638e50fe01fbdddf6ff1b973d4748","width":"1440","height":"2560"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9060493833","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":494,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9088740572,"gmtCreate":1650386121469,"gmtModify":1676534711464,"author":{"id":"4111462698941142","authorId":"4111462698941142","name":"7f231b67","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4111462698941142","authorIdStr":"4111462698941142"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Posted","listText":"Posted","text":"Posted","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9088740572","repostId":"1105569285","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1105569285","pubTimestamp":1650468622,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1105569285?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-04-20 23:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is The End Near For Musk And Tesla?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1105569285","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryDespite recent gains, investors should consider selling Tesla and other meme stocks now, before institutional money bails.While regulators may still be too frightened to hold Musk accountable, ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Summary</p><ul><li>Despite recent gains, investors should consider selling Tesla and other meme stocks now, before institutional money bails.</li><li>While regulators may still be too frightened to hold Musk accountable, a change in public opinion would be far more consequential to Musk and his empire.</li><li>The hype around Musk’s stake in Twitter and the speculation around his plans for the social media platform takes focus away from the troubles, which are many, ahead of Tesla.</li></ul><p>For years, Elon Musk has used hype to prop up Tesla’s stock. It’s worked so well that other companies have followed his lead. But now, we think the world has seen that the emperor has no clothes. The attempted Twitter (TWTR) takeover is yet another example of Musk bullying his way into what he wants and underscores how his super-star status cannot always convince people to overlook his irreverent, reckless, and potentially illegal behavior. As the recent lawsuit againstMusk shows, he is not completely immune from the consequences of his actions. Despite recent gains, investors should consider selling Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) and other meme stocks now, before institutional money bails.</p><p><b>End of the Road for Musk</b></p><p>Most investors are keenly aware of Musk’s long history of making grand promises that don’t come true – the Roadster, the Semi, the Cybertruck, full-self driving (FSD) etc. – and at times are blatantly unethical, such as tweeting “funding secured” to go private, and pumping Doge coin. But now, we have evidence that he may have acted illegally in the way he reported his purchases of Twitter stock. Given the clear rules about how investors should report large stakes in public companies – like what Musk has in Twitter – this case seems straightforward: Musk broke the rules.</p><p>The next question is how severely he will be punished. If the past is any guide, regulators will not muster more than a slap on the wrist. The real question is how institutional investors will react to signs Musk has pushed the envelope too far.</p><p>Institutional investors own Tesla stock more often because they must, given its influence on their performance, than because they see it as a good investment. Any investor with a rigorous process can see the stock is ridiculously overvalued; so, you own it for the “Musk effect”. Accordingly, the institutional investors’ decision to sell Tesla stock will be based on when Musk’s outsized influence begins to wane.</p><p>We think that moment has come.</p><p><b>Musk Meets His Maker: Twitter</b></p><p>In our view, Musk’s repeated rule-breaking behavior has finally gone too far. Details of the case are still emerging, but Musk’s failure to disclose his more than 5% stake in Twitter arguably hurt investors who sold shares after he crossed that ownership threshold. Instead, Musk kept purchasing shares until reaching a 9% stake in Twitter before disclosing his position. The initial class-action lawsuit and the potential for more have finally gotten the attention of investors, if not regulators.</p><p>The poor reception Twitter’s employees gave the news of Musk’s stake is a very public rejection of his super-star influencer status and provide the first tangible evidence that maybe his star power has limitations. If a hostile takeover prompts a mass exodus of talent, then Musk might end up destroying the company in the process of buying it. That being said, the loudest voices in the company are not necessarily the most valuable.</p><p>As more people join lawsuits against Musk, and Twitter employees continue to express their mistrust of the company’s largest shareholder, institutional investors may seize this moment to quietly unload their shares of overvalued Tesla stock. Now is the time to sell because the price of the stock to this point has been more a reflection of Musk’s ability to draw an audience than any underlying fundamental value in the company.</p><p><b>Live by the Stunt, Die by the Stunt</b></p><p>Ultimately, it appears that as much as Twitter was the launch pad for Musk’s super influence powers, his failure thus far to win the publicity battle could mark the beginning-of-the-end of his super-star status.</p><p>Musk’s Twitter play, which is another in a long series of distractions, could end poorly for Musk. Instead of addressing Tesla’s issues, Musk appears to be attempting to position himself as a defender of free speech. The risk he faces is that instead of looking like a hero he looks more like a bully running an ego-driven takeover with little regard for the rules. While regulators may still be too frightened to hold Musk accountable (more on this below), a change in public opinion would be far more consequential to Musk and his empire.</p><p>Tesla’s investors have not been impressed with Musk’s Twitter antics either, as the stock is down 11% since he announced his ownership in the social media giant. Likewise, the “Musk bump” in Twitter shares is likely to fade as investors realize the only value Musk brought was publicity, and not good publicity either. Although Twitter remains a popular platform, it has its own problems and suggestions such as removing a letter from its name can do more harm than good.</p><p><b>Why Haven’t Regulators Done Anything Before Now?</b></p><p>Tesla’s high stock price has, thus far, kept its CEO well beyond an arm’s length of regulators. Other executives in other times likely would have faced consequences for many of the things Musk has said and done. Today, Tesla’s high stock price indicates investors’ collective belief in Musk’s promises and protects Musk. Regulators don’t want to be accused of causing the company’s stock price to fall, thereby destroying the wealth of many investors and, as a result, footing the cost of defending against numerous shareholder lawsuits.</p><p>Furthermore, Musk can claim Tesla’s elevated stock price and the wealth it endows is what he needs to fulfill his outlandish promises over time. However, should Tesla’s stock price ever reflect realistic expectations for the company, authorities may feel emboldened to pursue legal or regulatory action against Musk and/or Tesla. Credible claims can be made for several offenses, including:</p><ul><li>stock and cryptocurrency manipulation</li><li>false advertising of Full Self Driving (FSD)</li><li>ignoring safety authorities</li><li>neglecting to file documentation on time related to his purchase of Twitter’s shares</li><li>and other claims of dubious veracity</li></ul><p><b>What Will Regulators Do When the Bubble Pops?</b></p><p>Musk has positioned himself as a pop-culture icon. Though society loves to build up celebrities, so too does it love tearing them down even more. Once Tesla’s stock price falls from its overly inflated levels, Musk will lose his cover that has protected him from all his unethical and arguably illegal behavior. Regulators are likely to come after Musk with knives out after all the humiliation they had to suffer at his hand.</p><p><b>Trouble on the Horizon</b></p><p>All the hype around Musk’s large stake in Twitter and the speculation around his plans for the social media platform takes focus away from the troubles, which are many, ahead for Tesla. Of course, that is likely his goal. Below we discuss the fundamentals of Tesla’s business, which cannot be wished away or made irrelevant with hype.</p><p><b>Incumbents Are Catching Up:</b> Tesla’s first-mover advantage has long been cited as reason enough for investors to pile their money into the company. However, that advantage is gone, and in some cases turning into a lag. Ford (F), Rivian (RIVN), and General Motors (GM) aim to produce EV trucks in 2022, but Tesla will be on the sidelines until at least 2023 before launching its Cybertruck.</p><p>The rising competition from incumbents means the days of Tesla’s rising profitability could be numbered. For starters, 26% of the company’s GAAP earnings in 2021 were from the sale of regulatory credits, not from the underlying economics of making and selling vehicles and other ancillary services.</p><p>Once incumbents increase production of EVs they will need to purchase fewer credits from Elon. That means Tesla needs to actually start <i>selling</i> <i>cars</i>to make money. The catch-22 is that for the company to sell more cars, it first needs to increase its production capacity. If Tesla’s succeeds in selling more cars capital expenditure and working capital are primed to grow along with sales. Tesla needs to build economies of scale before it can benefit from them.</p><p><b>Market Share Losses Continue:</b> Incumbent automakers have entered the EV market with scale and are already taking market share from Tesla. Per Figure 2, Tesla’s share of global EV sales fell from 16% in 2019 to 14% in 2021.</p><p>Tesla’s share of the U.S. EV market fell from 79% in2020to 70% in2021. With light truck sales comprising more than three out of every four vehicles sold in the U.S. in January 2022, Tesla falling behind in truck EVs means its share of the U.S. market could fall further.</p><p><b>Figure 2: Tesla’s Share of the Global EV Sales</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc4dd16dde86e1ab31f85bd8a2af4aee\" tg-width=\"630\" tg-height=\"260\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>TSLA Market Share Since 2019(New Constructs, LLC)</p><p>Sources: New Constructs, LLC, EV-volumes.com and Statista</p><p><b>Slow Start to 2022:</b>Though Teslaforecastedan at least 50% YoY rise in deliveries in 2022, the company is feeling the effects of supply chain problems – just like every other automaker. The company delivered 310,000 vehicles in the quarter, while consensus estimates were for 313,000.</p><p><b>Reverse DCF Math: Valuation Implies Tesla Will Own at Least 57% of the Global Passenger EV Market</b></p><p>Despite the increased competition, failure to meet delivery expectations, and diminutive share of the global EV market in 2021, Tesla’s valuation implies the company will own 57% of the global passenger EV market in 2030.</p><p>Even if Tesla increases the average selling price (ASP) per vehicle to $55K vs. ($49K in 2021), Tesla’s stock price at ~$1,100/share implies the firm will sell 15 million vehicles in 2030 versus ~936k in 2021. That figure represents 57% of the projected base case global EV passenger vehicle market in 2030 and the implied vehicle sales based on a lower ASP looks even more unrealistic.</p><p>To provide inarguably best-case scenarios for assessing the expectations reflected in Tesla’s stock price, we assume Tesla achieves profit margins 1.5x Toyota Motor Corp (TM) and triples its current auto manufacturing efficiency.</p><p>Per Figure 3, an $1,100/share price implies that, in 2030, Tesla will sell the following number of vehicles based on these ASP benchmarks:</p><ul><li>15 million vehicles – ASP of $55K (above average U.S. new car price of $47K in 2021)</li><li>7 million vehicles – ASP of $49K (equal to Tesla’s 2021 ASP[1])</li><li>21 million vehicles – ASP of $38K (equal to General Motors’ ASP[2] of $38K in 2021)</li></ul><p>If Tesla achieves those EV sales, the implied market share for the company would be the following (assuming global passenger EV sales reach 26 million in 2030, the base case projection from the IEA):</p><ul><li>57% for 15 million vehicles</li><li>64% for 17 million vehicles</li><li>83% for 21 million vehicles</li></ul><p>If we assume the IEA’s best case for global passenger EV sales in 2030, 47 million vehicles, the above vehicle sales represent:</p><ul><li>31% for 15 million vehicles</li><li>35% for 17 million vehicles</li><li>45% for 21 million vehicles</li></ul><p><b>Figure 3: Tesla’s Implied Vehicle Sales in 2030 to Justify $1,100/Share</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bad84793f241565c81ebb0d29b01242c\" tg-width=\"630\" tg-height=\"284\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>TSLA DCF Implied Vehicle Production(New Constructs, LLC)</p><p>Sources: New Constructs, LLC and company filings</p><p><b>Tesla Must Generate More Profits Than Apple For Investors to Make Money</b></p><p>Below are the assumptions we use in our reverse discounted cash flow model to calculate the implied production levels above.</p><p>Bulls should understand what Tesla needs to accomplish to justify ~$1,100/share:</p><ul><li>immediately achieve a 14% NOPAT margin (1.5x Toyota’s margin, which is the highest of the large-scale automakers we cover), compared to Tesla’s TTM margin of 8%) and</li><li>grow revenue by 32% compounded annually from 2022 to 2030.</li></ul><p>In this scenario, Tesla generates <i>$811 billion</i> in revenue in 2030, which is 116% of the combined revenues of Toyota, Stellantis (STLA), Ford, General Motors, and Honda (HMC) over the past twelve months. Tesla must replace the U.S. auto industry before 2030 to justify current valuations.</p><p>This scenario also implies Tesla grows net operating profit after-tax (NOPAT) by 2,458% from 2021 to 2030. In this scenario, Tesla generates $112 billion in NOPAT in 2030, or 12% higher than Apple’s (AAPL) TTM NOPAT, which, at $100 billion, is the highest of all companies we cover, and 65% higher than Microsoft (MSFT), the second-highest. Those companies have intertwined themselves in the lives of consumers and businesses around the world, which seems an unlikely feat for Tesla at this point.</p><p><b>TSLA Has 46% Downside If Morgan Stanley Is Right About Sales</b></p><p>If we assume Tesla reaches Morgan Stanley’s estimate of selling 8.1 million cars in 2030 (which implies a 31% share of the global passenger EV market in 2030), at an ASP of $55k, the stock is worth just $542/share. Details:</p><ul><li>NOPAT margin improves to 14% and</li><li>revenue grows 27% compounded annually over the next decade, then</li></ul><p>the stock is worth just $547/share today – a 46% downside to the current price. See the math behind this reverse DCF scenario. In this scenario, Tesla grows NOPAT to $62 billion, or nearly 14x its 2021 NOPAT, and just 7% below Alphabet’s (GOOGL) 2021 NOPAT.</p><p><b>TSLA Has 80%+ Downside Even with 27% Market Share and Realistic Margins</b></p><p>If we estimate more reasonable (but still very optimistic) margins and market share achievements for Tesla, the stock is worth just $200/share. Here’s the math:</p><ul><li>NOPAT margin improves to 9% (equal to Toyota’s TTM margin) and</li><li>revenue grows by consensus estimates from 2022 to 2024 and</li><li>revenue grows 17% a year from 2025 to 2030, then</li></ul><p>the stock is worth just $200/share today – an 80% downside to the current price.</p><p>In this scenario, Tesla sells 7 million cars (27% of the global passenger EV market in 2030) at an ASP of $47K (average new car price in U.S. in 2021) and grows NOPAT by 24% compounded annually from 2022 to 2030.</p><p>We also assume a more realistic NOPAT margin of 9% in this scenario, which is 1.3x higher than Toyota’s industry-leading five-year average NOPAT margin of 7%. Given the required capital requirements to fund manufacturing and match increased competition in the EV market, Tesla is unlikely to achieve and sustain a margin as high as 9% from 2022 to 2030. If Tesla fails to meet these expectations, then the stock is worth less than $200/share.</p><p>Figure 4 compares the firm’s historical NOPAT to the NOPAT implied in the above scenarios to illustrate just how high the expectations baked into Tesla’s stock price remain. For additional context, we show Toyota’s, General Motors’, and Apple’s TTM NOPAT.</p><p><b>Figure 4: Tesla’s Historical and Implied NOPAT: DCF Valuation Scenarios</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e43f865637ac4c84e8199df2b05d061\" tg-width=\"630\" tg-height=\"330\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>TSLA DCF Implied NOPAT(New Constructs, LLC)</p><p>Sources: New Constructs, LLC and company filings</p><p>Each of the above scenarios assumes Tesla’s invested capital grows 14% compounded annually through 2030. For reference, Tesla’s invested capital grew 49% compounded annually from 2011 to 2021 and 30% compounded annually since 2015.</p><p>An invested capital CAGR of 14% represents 1/3rdthe CAGR of Tesla’s property, plant, and equipment since 2011 and assumes the company can build future plants and produce cars 3x more efficiently than it has so far.</p><p>In other words, we aim to provide inarguably best-case scenarios for assessing the expectations for future market share and profits reflected in Tesla’s stock market valuation.</p><p><b>Tesla Won’t Be the Only One to Fall</b></p><p>Other meme stocks have taken pages from the Musk playbook and will likely suffer the same fate we expect Tesla to suffer once the game is up. GameStop (GME) promised to transform itself into an ecommerce powerhouse, yet the company continues to head in the opposite direction and earnings continue to disappoint. GameStop’s Core Earnings fell from -$200 million in fiscal 2021 to -$321 million in fiscal 2022.</p><p>Despite the company’s inability to quickly execute operational change, GameStop’s stock has remained well above a reasonable valuation thanks in part to announcing the launch of a marketplace for nonfungible tokens (NFTs) and partnerships with blockchain firms.</p><p>AMC Entertainment Holdings (AMC) has also run several Tesla-esque plays to prop up its stock. Indeed, the company’s CEO recently tweeted that the company is “playing on offense again” with its investment in a microcap gold mine. Before gold mines, the company got on the crypto bandwagon in 2021 by accepting Bitcoin, Ethereum, Bitcoin Cash, and Litecoin.</p><p>Beyond the repeated attempts at propping up their stocks, the fundamentally weak business models of Tesla, GameStop, and AMC Entertainment in highly competitive industries burn cash and continue to dilute shareholders whenever possible. Per Figure 5, despite combining for more than $1.1 trillion of market cap, Tesla, AMC Entertainment, and GameStop have a combined economic book value, our measure of the no growth value of a stock, of -$52 billion and -$4.3 billion of free cash flow over the past twelve months.</p><p><b>Figure 5: Meme Stock’s Market Cap, Economic Book Value &amp; FCF: TTM</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/add55782c8e6b0e8a891f84c9ec7421f\" tg-width=\"630\" tg-height=\"119\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Meme Stocks Market Cap, Economic Book Value, FCF(New Constructs, LLC)</p><p>Sources: New Constructs, LLC and company filings</p><p><i>This article originally published on April 14, 2022.</i></p><p><i>Disclosure: David Trainer, Kyle Guske II, and Matt Shuler receive no compensation to write about any specific stock, sector, style, or theme.</i></p><p>[1] Tesla’s ASP = (total automotive revenues – regulatory credits) / deliveries</p><p>[2] General Motors’ ASP = Vehicle, parts and accessories / wholesale vehicle sales</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is The End Near For Musk And Tesla?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs The End Near For Musk And Tesla?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-04-20 23:30 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4501979-is-the-end-near-for-musk-and-tesla><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryDespite recent gains, investors should consider selling Tesla and other meme stocks now, before institutional money bails.While regulators may still be too frightened to hold Musk accountable, ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4501979-is-the-end-near-for-musk-and-tesla\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4501979-is-the-end-near-for-musk-and-tesla","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1105569285","content_text":"SummaryDespite recent gains, investors should consider selling Tesla and other meme stocks now, before institutional money bails.While regulators may still be too frightened to hold Musk accountable, a change in public opinion would be far more consequential to Musk and his empire.The hype around Musk’s stake in Twitter and the speculation around his plans for the social media platform takes focus away from the troubles, which are many, ahead of Tesla.For years, Elon Musk has used hype to prop up Tesla’s stock. It’s worked so well that other companies have followed his lead. But now, we think the world has seen that the emperor has no clothes. The attempted Twitter (TWTR) takeover is yet another example of Musk bullying his way into what he wants and underscores how his super-star status cannot always convince people to overlook his irreverent, reckless, and potentially illegal behavior. As the recent lawsuit againstMusk shows, he is not completely immune from the consequences of his actions. Despite recent gains, investors should consider selling Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) and other meme stocks now, before institutional money bails.End of the Road for MuskMost investors are keenly aware of Musk’s long history of making grand promises that don’t come true – the Roadster, the Semi, the Cybertruck, full-self driving (FSD) etc. – and at times are blatantly unethical, such as tweeting “funding secured” to go private, and pumping Doge coin. But now, we have evidence that he may have acted illegally in the way he reported his purchases of Twitter stock. Given the clear rules about how investors should report large stakes in public companies – like what Musk has in Twitter – this case seems straightforward: Musk broke the rules.The next question is how severely he will be punished. If the past is any guide, regulators will not muster more than a slap on the wrist. The real question is how institutional investors will react to signs Musk has pushed the envelope too far.Institutional investors own Tesla stock more often because they must, given its influence on their performance, than because they see it as a good investment. Any investor with a rigorous process can see the stock is ridiculously overvalued; so, you own it for the “Musk effect”. Accordingly, the institutional investors’ decision to sell Tesla stock will be based on when Musk’s outsized influence begins to wane.We think that moment has come.Musk Meets His Maker: TwitterIn our view, Musk’s repeated rule-breaking behavior has finally gone too far. Details of the case are still emerging, but Musk’s failure to disclose his more than 5% stake in Twitter arguably hurt investors who sold shares after he crossed that ownership threshold. Instead, Musk kept purchasing shares until reaching a 9% stake in Twitter before disclosing his position. The initial class-action lawsuit and the potential for more have finally gotten the attention of investors, if not regulators.The poor reception Twitter’s employees gave the news of Musk’s stake is a very public rejection of his super-star influencer status and provide the first tangible evidence that maybe his star power has limitations. If a hostile takeover prompts a mass exodus of talent, then Musk might end up destroying the company in the process of buying it. That being said, the loudest voices in the company are not necessarily the most valuable.As more people join lawsuits against Musk, and Twitter employees continue to express their mistrust of the company’s largest shareholder, institutional investors may seize this moment to quietly unload their shares of overvalued Tesla stock. Now is the time to sell because the price of the stock to this point has been more a reflection of Musk’s ability to draw an audience than any underlying fundamental value in the company.Live by the Stunt, Die by the StuntUltimately, it appears that as much as Twitter was the launch pad for Musk’s super influence powers, his failure thus far to win the publicity battle could mark the beginning-of-the-end of his super-star status.Musk’s Twitter play, which is another in a long series of distractions, could end poorly for Musk. Instead of addressing Tesla’s issues, Musk appears to be attempting to position himself as a defender of free speech. The risk he faces is that instead of looking like a hero he looks more like a bully running an ego-driven takeover with little regard for the rules. While regulators may still be too frightened to hold Musk accountable (more on this below), a change in public opinion would be far more consequential to Musk and his empire.Tesla’s investors have not been impressed with Musk’s Twitter antics either, as the stock is down 11% since he announced his ownership in the social media giant. Likewise, the “Musk bump” in Twitter shares is likely to fade as investors realize the only value Musk brought was publicity, and not good publicity either. Although Twitter remains a popular platform, it has its own problems and suggestions such as removing a letter from its name can do more harm than good.Why Haven’t Regulators Done Anything Before Now?Tesla’s high stock price has, thus far, kept its CEO well beyond an arm’s length of regulators. Other executives in other times likely would have faced consequences for many of the things Musk has said and done. Today, Tesla’s high stock price indicates investors’ collective belief in Musk’s promises and protects Musk. Regulators don’t want to be accused of causing the company’s stock price to fall, thereby destroying the wealth of many investors and, as a result, footing the cost of defending against numerous shareholder lawsuits.Furthermore, Musk can claim Tesla’s elevated stock price and the wealth it endows is what he needs to fulfill his outlandish promises over time. However, should Tesla’s stock price ever reflect realistic expectations for the company, authorities may feel emboldened to pursue legal or regulatory action against Musk and/or Tesla. Credible claims can be made for several offenses, including:stock and cryptocurrency manipulationfalse advertising of Full Self Driving (FSD)ignoring safety authoritiesneglecting to file documentation on time related to his purchase of Twitter’s sharesand other claims of dubious veracityWhat Will Regulators Do When the Bubble Pops?Musk has positioned himself as a pop-culture icon. Though society loves to build up celebrities, so too does it love tearing them down even more. Once Tesla’s stock price falls from its overly inflated levels, Musk will lose his cover that has protected him from all his unethical and arguably illegal behavior. Regulators are likely to come after Musk with knives out after all the humiliation they had to suffer at his hand.Trouble on the HorizonAll the hype around Musk’s large stake in Twitter and the speculation around his plans for the social media platform takes focus away from the troubles, which are many, ahead for Tesla. Of course, that is likely his goal. Below we discuss the fundamentals of Tesla’s business, which cannot be wished away or made irrelevant with hype.Incumbents Are Catching Up: Tesla’s first-mover advantage has long been cited as reason enough for investors to pile their money into the company. However, that advantage is gone, and in some cases turning into a lag. Ford (F), Rivian (RIVN), and General Motors (GM) aim to produce EV trucks in 2022, but Tesla will be on the sidelines until at least 2023 before launching its Cybertruck.The rising competition from incumbents means the days of Tesla’s rising profitability could be numbered. For starters, 26% of the company’s GAAP earnings in 2021 were from the sale of regulatory credits, not from the underlying economics of making and selling vehicles and other ancillary services.Once incumbents increase production of EVs they will need to purchase fewer credits from Elon. That means Tesla needs to actually start selling carsto make money. The catch-22 is that for the company to sell more cars, it first needs to increase its production capacity. If Tesla’s succeeds in selling more cars capital expenditure and working capital are primed to grow along with sales. Tesla needs to build economies of scale before it can benefit from them.Market Share Losses Continue: Incumbent automakers have entered the EV market with scale and are already taking market share from Tesla. Per Figure 2, Tesla’s share of global EV sales fell from 16% in 2019 to 14% in 2021.Tesla’s share of the U.S. EV market fell from 79% in2020to 70% in2021. With light truck sales comprising more than three out of every four vehicles sold in the U.S. in January 2022, Tesla falling behind in truck EVs means its share of the U.S. market could fall further.Figure 2: Tesla’s Share of the Global EV SalesTSLA Market Share Since 2019(New Constructs, LLC)Sources: New Constructs, LLC, EV-volumes.com and StatistaSlow Start to 2022:Though Teslaforecastedan at least 50% YoY rise in deliveries in 2022, the company is feeling the effects of supply chain problems – just like every other automaker. The company delivered 310,000 vehicles in the quarter, while consensus estimates were for 313,000.Reverse DCF Math: Valuation Implies Tesla Will Own at Least 57% of the Global Passenger EV MarketDespite the increased competition, failure to meet delivery expectations, and diminutive share of the global EV market in 2021, Tesla’s valuation implies the company will own 57% of the global passenger EV market in 2030.Even if Tesla increases the average selling price (ASP) per vehicle to $55K vs. ($49K in 2021), Tesla’s stock price at ~$1,100/share implies the firm will sell 15 million vehicles in 2030 versus ~936k in 2021. That figure represents 57% of the projected base case global EV passenger vehicle market in 2030 and the implied vehicle sales based on a lower ASP looks even more unrealistic.To provide inarguably best-case scenarios for assessing the expectations reflected in Tesla’s stock price, we assume Tesla achieves profit margins 1.5x Toyota Motor Corp (TM) and triples its current auto manufacturing efficiency.Per Figure 3, an $1,100/share price implies that, in 2030, Tesla will sell the following number of vehicles based on these ASP benchmarks:15 million vehicles – ASP of $55K (above average U.S. new car price of $47K in 2021)7 million vehicles – ASP of $49K (equal to Tesla’s 2021 ASP[1])21 million vehicles – ASP of $38K (equal to General Motors’ ASP[2] of $38K in 2021)If Tesla achieves those EV sales, the implied market share for the company would be the following (assuming global passenger EV sales reach 26 million in 2030, the base case projection from the IEA):57% for 15 million vehicles64% for 17 million vehicles83% for 21 million vehiclesIf we assume the IEA’s best case for global passenger EV sales in 2030, 47 million vehicles, the above vehicle sales represent:31% for 15 million vehicles35% for 17 million vehicles45% for 21 million vehiclesFigure 3: Tesla’s Implied Vehicle Sales in 2030 to Justify $1,100/ShareTSLA DCF Implied Vehicle Production(New Constructs, LLC)Sources: New Constructs, LLC and company filingsTesla Must Generate More Profits Than Apple For Investors to Make MoneyBelow are the assumptions we use in our reverse discounted cash flow model to calculate the implied production levels above.Bulls should understand what Tesla needs to accomplish to justify ~$1,100/share:immediately achieve a 14% NOPAT margin (1.5x Toyota’s margin, which is the highest of the large-scale automakers we cover), compared to Tesla’s TTM margin of 8%) andgrow revenue by 32% compounded annually from 2022 to 2030.In this scenario, Tesla generates $811 billion in revenue in 2030, which is 116% of the combined revenues of Toyota, Stellantis (STLA), Ford, General Motors, and Honda (HMC) over the past twelve months. Tesla must replace the U.S. auto industry before 2030 to justify current valuations.This scenario also implies Tesla grows net operating profit after-tax (NOPAT) by 2,458% from 2021 to 2030. In this scenario, Tesla generates $112 billion in NOPAT in 2030, or 12% higher than Apple’s (AAPL) TTM NOPAT, which, at $100 billion, is the highest of all companies we cover, and 65% higher than Microsoft (MSFT), the second-highest. Those companies have intertwined themselves in the lives of consumers and businesses around the world, which seems an unlikely feat for Tesla at this point.TSLA Has 46% Downside If Morgan Stanley Is Right About SalesIf we assume Tesla reaches Morgan Stanley’s estimate of selling 8.1 million cars in 2030 (which implies a 31% share of the global passenger EV market in 2030), at an ASP of $55k, the stock is worth just $542/share. Details:NOPAT margin improves to 14% andrevenue grows 27% compounded annually over the next decade, thenthe stock is worth just $547/share today – a 46% downside to the current price. See the math behind this reverse DCF scenario. In this scenario, Tesla grows NOPAT to $62 billion, or nearly 14x its 2021 NOPAT, and just 7% below Alphabet’s (GOOGL) 2021 NOPAT.TSLA Has 80%+ Downside Even with 27% Market Share and Realistic MarginsIf we estimate more reasonable (but still very optimistic) margins and market share achievements for Tesla, the stock is worth just $200/share. Here’s the math:NOPAT margin improves to 9% (equal to Toyota’s TTM margin) andrevenue grows by consensus estimates from 2022 to 2024 andrevenue grows 17% a year from 2025 to 2030, thenthe stock is worth just $200/share today – an 80% downside to the current price.In this scenario, Tesla sells 7 million cars (27% of the global passenger EV market in 2030) at an ASP of $47K (average new car price in U.S. in 2021) and grows NOPAT by 24% compounded annually from 2022 to 2030.We also assume a more realistic NOPAT margin of 9% in this scenario, which is 1.3x higher than Toyota’s industry-leading five-year average NOPAT margin of 7%. Given the required capital requirements to fund manufacturing and match increased competition in the EV market, Tesla is unlikely to achieve and sustain a margin as high as 9% from 2022 to 2030. If Tesla fails to meet these expectations, then the stock is worth less than $200/share.Figure 4 compares the firm’s historical NOPAT to the NOPAT implied in the above scenarios to illustrate just how high the expectations baked into Tesla’s stock price remain. For additional context, we show Toyota’s, General Motors’, and Apple’s TTM NOPAT.Figure 4: Tesla’s Historical and Implied NOPAT: DCF Valuation ScenariosTSLA DCF Implied NOPAT(New Constructs, LLC)Sources: New Constructs, LLC and company filingsEach of the above scenarios assumes Tesla’s invested capital grows 14% compounded annually through 2030. For reference, Tesla’s invested capital grew 49% compounded annually from 2011 to 2021 and 30% compounded annually since 2015.An invested capital CAGR of 14% represents 1/3rdthe CAGR of Tesla’s property, plant, and equipment since 2011 and assumes the company can build future plants and produce cars 3x more efficiently than it has so far.In other words, we aim to provide inarguably best-case scenarios for assessing the expectations for future market share and profits reflected in Tesla’s stock market valuation.Tesla Won’t Be the Only One to FallOther meme stocks have taken pages from the Musk playbook and will likely suffer the same fate we expect Tesla to suffer once the game is up. GameStop (GME) promised to transform itself into an ecommerce powerhouse, yet the company continues to head in the opposite direction and earnings continue to disappoint. GameStop’s Core Earnings fell from -$200 million in fiscal 2021 to -$321 million in fiscal 2022.Despite the company’s inability to quickly execute operational change, GameStop’s stock has remained well above a reasonable valuation thanks in part to announcing the launch of a marketplace for nonfungible tokens (NFTs) and partnerships with blockchain firms.AMC Entertainment Holdings (AMC) has also run several Tesla-esque plays to prop up its stock. Indeed, the company’s CEO recently tweeted that the company is “playing on offense again” with its investment in a microcap gold mine. Before gold mines, the company got on the crypto bandwagon in 2021 by accepting Bitcoin, Ethereum, Bitcoin Cash, and Litecoin.Beyond the repeated attempts at propping up their stocks, the fundamentally weak business models of Tesla, GameStop, and AMC Entertainment in highly competitive industries burn cash and continue to dilute shareholders whenever possible. Per Figure 5, despite combining for more than $1.1 trillion of market cap, Tesla, AMC Entertainment, and GameStop have a combined economic book value, our measure of the no growth value of a stock, of -$52 billion and -$4.3 billion of free cash flow over the past twelve months.Figure 5: Meme Stock’s Market Cap, Economic Book Value & FCF: TTMMeme Stocks Market Cap, Economic Book Value, FCF(New Constructs, LLC)Sources: New Constructs, LLC and company filingsThis article originally published on April 14, 2022.Disclosure: David Trainer, Kyle Guske II, and Matt Shuler receive no compensation to write about any specific stock, sector, style, or theme.[1] Tesla’s ASP = (total automotive revenues – regulatory credits) / deliveries[2] General Motors’ ASP = Vehicle, parts and accessories / wholesale vehicle 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