Cathy Live personal page - To The Moon

Cathy Live

Cathy Live

No personal profile

41Follow

0Followers

2Topic

0Badge

09-28

Great coverage!

NIO: The Tide Is Finally Turning

01-12

Great article

Could the Lake Resources share price double in 2024?

2023-12-28

Rollercoaster

2023-06-27

Great Analysis! Thank you for sharing

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2023-05-06

[Smile] [Smile] [Smile] [Smile] //@Alice Arnault:@AcidIce i will stay on the optimistic side. The current decrease is somewhat of a cyclical process where there was a increase purchase during covid and the stocks will deprecate, secondly there is a lack of applications which need better devices. Look at cars, bags etc, there are millions of units sold everyday so long as the value provided exceeds what is desired

Apple Q2 Earnings Preview: Revenue Expected to Drop Again, With Macs Leading Decline

2023-03-02

Great post

@LMSunshine:How I Beat The Market By Analysing Economic Data & 🗞🗞🗞 Instead of “Buy the Rumor🗣🗣, Sell the News📰”

Go to Tiger App to see more news

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"userPageInfo":{"id":"4116122953760472","uuid":"4116122953760472","gmtCreate":1653019877104,"gmtModify":1676054358321,"name":"Cathy Live","pinyin":"cathylivecathylive","introduction":"","introductionEn":"","signature":"","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ed116ae5e9a38e726cbc8d6208ca78f2","hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b75ce0c34afff716602792a5d0929dd","hatId":"shopping-c3edc01e31206bedfff9b5eecea7bb42","hatName":"2023 New Year ","vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":0,"headSize":41,"tweetSize":6,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":999,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":1,"name":"萌萌虎","nameTw":"萌萌虎","represent":"呱呱坠地","factor":"评论帖子3次或发布1条主帖（非转发）","iconColor":"3C9E83","bgColor":"A2F1D9"},"themeCounts":2,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":1,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":"init","userBadges":[{"badgeId":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03-2","templateUuid":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03","name":"Executive Tiger","description":"The transaction amount of the securities account reaches $300,000","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d20b23f1b6335407f882bc5c2ad12c0","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ada3b4533518ace8404a3f6dd192bd29","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/177f283ba21d1c077054dac07f88f3bd","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2024.07.13","exceedPercentage":"80.29%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1101},{"badgeId":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be-3","templateUuid":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be","name":"Legendary Trader","description":"Total number of securities or futures transactions reached 300","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/656db16598a0b8f21429e10d6c1cb033","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03f10910d4dd9234f9b5702a3342193a","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c767e35268feb729d50d3fa9a386c5a","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2024.02.10","exceedPercentage":"93.20%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},{"badgeId":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493-1","templateUuid":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493","name":"Debut Tiger","description":"Join the tiger community for 500 days","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e4d0ca1da0456dc7894c946d44bf9ab","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f2f65e8ce4cfaae8db2bea9b127f58b","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5948a31b6edf154422335b265235809","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.10.02","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},{"badgeId":"7a9f168ff73447fe856ed6c938b61789-1","templateUuid":"7a9f168ff73447fe856ed6c938b61789","name":"Knowledgeable Investor","description":"Traded more than 10 stocks","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e74cc24115c4fbae6154ec1b1041bf47","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d48265cbfd97c57f9048db29f22227b0","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76c6d6898b073c77e1c537ebe9ac1c57","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.03.11","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1102},{"badgeId":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84-1","templateUuid":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84","name":"Real Trader","description":"Completed a transaction","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.02.25","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100}],"userBadgeCount":5,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03-2","templateUuid":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03","name":"Executive Tiger","description":"The transaction amount of the securities account reaches $300,000","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d20b23f1b6335407f882bc5c2ad12c0","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ada3b4533518ace8404a3f6dd192bd29","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/177f283ba21d1c077054dac07f88f3bd","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2024.07.13","exceedPercentage":"80.09%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1101},"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":null,"starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":1,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"baikeInfo":{},"tab":"post","tweets":[{"id":354370467864624,"gmtCreate":1727524316642,"gmtModify":1727524320522,"author":{"id":"4116122953760472","authorId":"4116122953760472","name":"Cathy Live","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ed116ae5e9a38e726cbc8d6208ca78f2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4116122953760472","authorIdStr":"4116122953760472"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great coverage!&nbsp;","listText":"Great coverage!&nbsp;","text":"Great coverage!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/354370467864624","repostId":"2470081011","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2470081011","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1727510601,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2470081011?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-09-28 16:03","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"NIO: The Tide Is Finally Turning","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2470081011","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"My article examines China's macro environment, highlighting its impact on the financial performance and future prospects of the stock market in general.NIO's financial updates in particular reveal str","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li><p>My article examines China&#39;s macro environment, highlighting its impact on the financial performance and future prospects of the stock market in general.</p></li><li><p>NIO&#39;s financial updates in particular reveal strong revenue growth and solid balance sheets, supporting a positive outlook for the stock.</p></li><li><p>Valuation analysis suggests the stock may have an upside indeed, with NIO having a cash-to-market-cap ratio of 57.5% to date.</p></li><li><p>Although the long term outlook remains highly uncertain, I continue to look at NIO today as pure speculation for bulls.</p></li></ul><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/03ac484e2ce629f35b09aa31866a2290\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"499\"/></p><p>primeimages</p><p></p><h2 id=\"id_2426392888\">My Coverage History &amp; Thesis Update</h2><p>I&#39;ve been covering <strong>NIO Inc.</strong> (NYSE:NIO) stock for quite a long time here on Seeking Alpha. Since November 2022, I&#39;ve been bearish, but then I changed my stance to &#34;Neutral&#34; at the beginning of December 2023 and then finally issued a &#34;Buy&#34; rating, noting that NIO was looking interesting as a speculative &#34;Buy&#34; (that call was made in early March 2024). In early June 2024, I reiterated my &#34;Buy&#34; rating, still seeing a few reasons to stay bullish on NIO in the short-to-medium term.</p><p>I think my bullish thesis hasn&#39;t played out yet, but I see it started to go in the right direction recently:</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0b85cbda3e393e855353c2ba856c2101\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"468\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha, my coverage of NIO stock</p><p></p><p><em>To date, I still believe I was close to marking the local bottom in NIO&#39;s price.</em> I think NIO still has significant growth potential in the medium term, especially as interest from retail and international investors returns to China.</p><h2 id=\"id_3415084607\">Why Do I Think So?</h2><p>Let me first tell you a bit about the macro setup in China the way I see it.</p><p>China has rolled out a sizeable monetary policy easing package a few days ago. The measures include a cut of 50 b.p. on the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) and a 20 b.p. cut on the 7-day reverse REPO rate, thereby releasing bank liquidity for credit creation and asset purchase. Moreover, preexisting mortgage interest rates have been cut to improve consumer confidence. It would have been a hit to the banking sector, but the negative effect on margins should be theoretically offset by lower rates on deposits. Net-net, it&#39;s going to stimulate the economy, in my view.</p><p>At the same time, new special credit lines from the People&#39;s Bank of China (aka PBoC) are now available for funds, investment banks, and insurance companies at low interest rates for share buybacks (~1.75% annually) and for major shareholders to increase their stakes (~2.25%). The CCP tried to encourage a stock market rally, hoping to lift sentiment and trigger a consumer confidence revival that would turn into real money.</p><p>The regulatory changes in August not only made it easier for the PBoC to trade bonds to raise the yield curve and support the banks, but they also removed interest-rate caps on inter-bank lending. So the response of the markets to this announcement last 7 calendar days has been encouraging: the MSCI China ETF (MCHI) is up 17.44%, while the tech sector - China Internet ETF (KWEB) - is up over 22%. The price action looks crazy hot right now:</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/87793b8b4377d463bdfd64abddc26eab\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"439\"/></p><p>Data by YCharts</p><p></p><p>In periods like now, we usually see the most bullish reaction from the assets of &#34;the longest duration&#34; so to speak - in terms of equities, it&#39;s usually unprofitable growth stocks, which have been falling for many quarters. NIO is the perfect fit, and it follows the theoretical rules:</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3aed05b140e8e0ed8b7eb8f4fc40fd02\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"424\"/></p><p>Data by YCharts</p><p></p><p>But NIO isn&#39;t just an unprofitable growth stock.</p><p>Their recent introduction of the SkyOS operating system and the Banyan 3 smart system, along with the development of the Shenji NX9031 chip for smart driving, makes NIO one of the most innovative car brands today, in my view. The launch of the ONVO brand&#39;s 1st model - the L60 - is expected to further boost sales, with a target of reaching a supply capacity of ~10,000 units by the end of the year. This model is priced competitively at only RMB290,900, which is about RMB30,000 cheaper than the Tesla (TSLA) Model Y for comparison, positioning NIO quite well in the Chinese market.</p><p>NIO&#39;s business itself is already growing quite well. The vehicle margin rose to 12.2%, against a 6.2% margin compared with the same quarter last year, because material costs dropped further. The gross margin also rose to 9.7%, which is still low, but against 1% a year ago it looks like a great achievement to me. Even with all those gains, NIO reported a net loss of RMB5 billion, down 16.7% from last year, showing that it&#39;s still early to talk seriously about profitability. Anyway, the cash balance continues to be strong – NIO reported cash and cash equivalents of RMB41.6 billion as of June 30, 2024, which should make it easy to take advantage of future opportunities to invest and grow the business.</p><p>I like NIO&#39;s efforts to extend its charging and swapping network, which seems to be strategically in time. According to a recent press release, NIO has established more than 2,561 power swap stations and more than 23,000 chargers worldwide, helping to meet users&#39; strong demand. The Power Up Partner Plan aims to provide access to NIO&#39;s charging network in every county in mainland China by mid-2025, which will likely further facilitate sales growth and market penetration.</p><p>The management is looking to reach an end-of-year vehicle margin of about 15% and a 3rd factory with a capacity of ~100,000 units (scheduled to come online in Q3 next year). The goal is to increase monthly delivery volumes to 30,000-40,000 units for the NIO brand and a long-term vehicle margin of 25%. The goal for the ONVO brand in particular is a 15% vehicle margin with a competitive pricing position and cutting-edge technology.</p><p>Based on all that, perhaps we&#39;ll see a continuation of the earnings revisions to the upside, which so far touched only the next 3 years:</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/2c0e55b0181bc9e8a00e299265f53fe5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"331\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p></p><p>As I noted above, it&#39;s too early to hope for a bottom-line break even any time soon, but anyway, the market is expecting to see the first positive adjusted EPS in FY2027, so the consensus is already quite pessimistic, leaving little room for much downside from here.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ea823a9a4c1ae37cad3667412e38e1fc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"312\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p></p><p>Honestly, I don&#39;t know if NIO indeed is poised for sustained growth in the long term through its heavy investments in tech, infrastructure, and market expansion. However, I believe the short-to-medium-term momentum is likely to continue as the market participants continue to reprice the Chinese equities.</p><p>Much of the risks that were priced in before came from the China macro concerns and potentially weakening consumers. I wrote about it in my previously bearish articles on NIO (and not only). But those macro headwinds are getting much softer now with the new policy updates. At the same time, I like NIO&#39;s new initiatives with the ONVO brand that keep the management confident in the company&#39;s ability to meet competitive pressures. We&#39;ll see, but it looks like the company has a clear roadmap to guide its growth and development in the medium term.</p><p>I know it&#39;s hard to call NIO undervalued - it has no P/E or EV/EBITDA ratios for our assessment, even on the forwarding basis (again, the firm is projected to break even in FY2027). But on the sales-related ratios, NIO is trading at about the median of the Consumer Discretionary sector:</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8b6978b917e41cd287008cf504f8ea0a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"486\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha, NIO&#39;s Valuation</p><p></p><p>NIO&#39;s P/S ratios fell down over 80% since their 5-year peaks, so probably amid better sentiment they can go up from here. Anyway, on the cash-to-market-cap ratio, NIO still looks quite cheap to me - 57.5% of its market cap is backed by cash so to speak:</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/aed45be967e2819d992fe7274e86539b\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"424\"/></p><p>Data by YCharts</p><p></p><p>I&#39;m not sure what is driving Morningstar Premium&#39;s fair value models (proprietary source), but in NIO&#39;s case we see an undervaluation of over 31%:</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0454ca36cba1f368f99155a5abec1d2d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"260\"/></p><p>Morningstar Premium (proprietary source), notes added</p><p></p><p>Based on all of the above, I decided to maintain my speculative &#34;Buy&#34; rating for NIO for another quarter at least.</p><h2 id=\"id_942063814\">Where Can I Be Wrong?</h2><p>In fact, there are a whole series of risk factors for my thesis - let me touch on the most obvious ones, which I generally covered last time.</p><p>First, I assume that the improving macro environment in China should lure Western investors (and not only Western ones) back to Chinese assets. But this could be a fallacy as it is by no means certain that a) the crisis is over and China will return to a period of stable GDP growth and b) NIO will be a good pick given its financials and deep unprofitability.</p><p>The second risk lies in my reasoning about improving the fundamentals. Again, NIO remains a deeply unprofitable company that constantly needs new capital injections. There&#39;s a risk that the company will quickly &#34;wipe out&#34; any beginnings of recovery growth in its stock quotes by announcing a new share capital issuance - this is a risk I can&#39;t rule out and simply ignore.</p><p>The third risk is that the lack of positive EBITDA does not allow us to value NIO as the financial theory recommends. This is a characteristic of a growth stock, but in any case, investors will have to wait another 3 fiscal years before they see the first positive P/E ratios.</p><h2 id=\"id_1205053800\">The Bottom Line</h2><p>Given the risks I listed above, I continue to look at NIO today as pure speculation for bulls. Of course, the fundamentals are moving in the right direction, and so is valuation (rising cash to market cap is a good metric). But long term, the outlook remains highly uncertain. However, considering my assumption of a better macro setup in China and also the recent updates from the firm, I decided to hold my medium-term speculative &#34;Buy&#34; rating.</p><p><em>Thank you for reading!</em></p><p>Editor&#39;s Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>NIO: The Tide Is Finally Turning</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNIO: The Tide Is Finally Turning\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-09-28 16:03 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4723723-nio-tide-finally-turning><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>My article examines China's macro environment, highlighting its impact on the financial performance and future prospects of the stock market in general.NIO's financial updates in particular reveal ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4723723-nio-tide-finally-turning\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4531":"中概回港概念","09866":"蔚来-SW","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU0708995583.HKD":"TEMPLETON CHINA \"A\" (HKD) ACC","BK4555":"新能源车","BK4509":"腾讯概念","NIO.SI":"蔚来","BK4526":"热门中概股","BK4588":"碎股","NIO":"蔚来","BK4574":"无人驾驶","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","LU0320764599.SGD":"FTIF - Templeton China A Acc SGD","LU0052750758.USD":"富兰克林中国基金A Acc","BK4099":"汽车制造商","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4723723-nio-tide-finally-turning","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2470081011","content_text":"My article examines China's macro environment, highlighting its impact on the financial performance and future prospects of the stock market in general.NIO's financial updates in particular reveal strong revenue growth and solid balance sheets, supporting a positive outlook for the stock.Valuation analysis suggests the stock may have an upside indeed, with NIO having a cash-to-market-cap ratio of 57.5% to date.Although the long term outlook remains highly uncertain, I continue to look at NIO today as pure speculation for bulls.primeimagesMy Coverage History & Thesis UpdateI've been covering NIO Inc. (NYSE:NIO) stock for quite a long time here on Seeking Alpha. Since November 2022, I've been bearish, but then I changed my stance to \"Neutral\" at the beginning of December 2023 and then finally issued a \"Buy\" rating, noting that NIO was looking interesting as a speculative \"Buy\" (that call was made in early March 2024). In early June 2024, I reiterated my \"Buy\" rating, still seeing a few reasons to stay bullish on NIO in the short-to-medium term.I think my bullish thesis hasn't played out yet, but I see it started to go in the right direction recently:Seeking Alpha, my coverage of NIO stockTo date, I still believe I was close to marking the local bottom in NIO's price. I think NIO still has significant growth potential in the medium term, especially as interest from retail and international investors returns to China.Why Do I Think So?Let me first tell you a bit about the macro setup in China the way I see it.China has rolled out a sizeable monetary policy easing package a few days ago. The measures include a cut of 50 b.p. on the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) and a 20 b.p. cut on the 7-day reverse REPO rate, thereby releasing bank liquidity for credit creation and asset purchase. Moreover, preexisting mortgage interest rates have been cut to improve consumer confidence. It would have been a hit to the banking sector, but the negative effect on margins should be theoretically offset by lower rates on deposits. Net-net, it's going to stimulate the economy, in my view.At the same time, new special credit lines from the People's Bank of China (aka PBoC) are now available for funds, investment banks, and insurance companies at low interest rates for share buybacks (~1.75% annually) and for major shareholders to increase their stakes (~2.25%). The CCP tried to encourage a stock market rally, hoping to lift sentiment and trigger a consumer confidence revival that would turn into real money.The regulatory changes in August not only made it easier for the PBoC to trade bonds to raise the yield curve and support the banks, but they also removed interest-rate caps on inter-bank lending. So the response of the markets to this announcement last 7 calendar days has been encouraging: the MSCI China ETF (MCHI) is up 17.44%, while the tech sector - China Internet ETF (KWEB) - is up over 22%. The price action looks crazy hot right now:Data by YChartsIn periods like now, we usually see the most bullish reaction from the assets of \"the longest duration\" so to speak - in terms of equities, it's usually unprofitable growth stocks, which have been falling for many quarters. NIO is the perfect fit, and it follows the theoretical rules:Data by YChartsBut NIO isn't just an unprofitable growth stock.Their recent introduction of the SkyOS operating system and the Banyan 3 smart system, along with the development of the Shenji NX9031 chip for smart driving, makes NIO one of the most innovative car brands today, in my view. The launch of the ONVO brand's 1st model - the L60 - is expected to further boost sales, with a target of reaching a supply capacity of ~10,000 units by the end of the year. This model is priced competitively at only RMB290,900, which is about RMB30,000 cheaper than the Tesla (TSLA) Model Y for comparison, positioning NIO quite well in the Chinese market.NIO's business itself is already growing quite well. The vehicle margin rose to 12.2%, against a 6.2% margin compared with the same quarter last year, because material costs dropped further. The gross margin also rose to 9.7%, which is still low, but against 1% a year ago it looks like a great achievement to me. Even with all those gains, NIO reported a net loss of RMB5 billion, down 16.7% from last year, showing that it's still early to talk seriously about profitability. Anyway, the cash balance continues to be strong – NIO reported cash and cash equivalents of RMB41.6 billion as of June 30, 2024, which should make it easy to take advantage of future opportunities to invest and grow the business.I like NIO's efforts to extend its charging and swapping network, which seems to be strategically in time. According to a recent press release, NIO has established more than 2,561 power swap stations and more than 23,000 chargers worldwide, helping to meet users' strong demand. The Power Up Partner Plan aims to provide access to NIO's charging network in every county in mainland China by mid-2025, which will likely further facilitate sales growth and market penetration.The management is looking to reach an end-of-year vehicle margin of about 15% and a 3rd factory with a capacity of ~100,000 units (scheduled to come online in Q3 next year). The goal is to increase monthly delivery volumes to 30,000-40,000 units for the NIO brand and a long-term vehicle margin of 25%. The goal for the ONVO brand in particular is a 15% vehicle margin with a competitive pricing position and cutting-edge technology.Based on all that, perhaps we'll see a continuation of the earnings revisions to the upside, which so far touched only the next 3 years:Seeking AlphaAs I noted above, it's too early to hope for a bottom-line break even any time soon, but anyway, the market is expecting to see the first positive adjusted EPS in FY2027, so the consensus is already quite pessimistic, leaving little room for much downside from here.Seeking AlphaHonestly, I don't know if NIO indeed is poised for sustained growth in the long term through its heavy investments in tech, infrastructure, and market expansion. However, I believe the short-to-medium-term momentum is likely to continue as the market participants continue to reprice the Chinese equities.Much of the risks that were priced in before came from the China macro concerns and potentially weakening consumers. I wrote about it in my previously bearish articles on NIO (and not only). But those macro headwinds are getting much softer now with the new policy updates. At the same time, I like NIO's new initiatives with the ONVO brand that keep the management confident in the company's ability to meet competitive pressures. We'll see, but it looks like the company has a clear roadmap to guide its growth and development in the medium term.I know it's hard to call NIO undervalued - it has no P/E or EV/EBITDA ratios for our assessment, even on the forwarding basis (again, the firm is projected to break even in FY2027). But on the sales-related ratios, NIO is trading at about the median of the Consumer Discretionary sector:Seeking Alpha, NIO's ValuationNIO's P/S ratios fell down over 80% since their 5-year peaks, so probably amid better sentiment they can go up from here. Anyway, on the cash-to-market-cap ratio, NIO still looks quite cheap to me - 57.5% of its market cap is backed by cash so to speak:Data by YChartsI'm not sure what is driving Morningstar Premium's fair value models (proprietary source), but in NIO's case we see an undervaluation of over 31%:Morningstar Premium (proprietary source), notes addedBased on all of the above, I decided to maintain my speculative \"Buy\" rating for NIO for another quarter at least.Where Can I Be Wrong?In fact, there are a whole series of risk factors for my thesis - let me touch on the most obvious ones, which I generally covered last time.First, I assume that the improving macro environment in China should lure Western investors (and not only Western ones) back to Chinese assets. But this could be a fallacy as it is by no means certain that a) the crisis is over and China will return to a period of stable GDP growth and b) NIO will be a good pick given its financials and deep unprofitability.The second risk lies in my reasoning about improving the fundamentals. Again, NIO remains a deeply unprofitable company that constantly needs new capital injections. There's a risk that the company will quickly \"wipe out\" any beginnings of recovery growth in its stock quotes by announcing a new share capital issuance - this is a risk I can't rule out and simply ignore.The third risk is that the lack of positive EBITDA does not allow us to value NIO as the financial theory recommends. This is a characteristic of a growth stock, but in any case, investors will have to wait another 3 fiscal years before they see the first positive P/E ratios.The Bottom LineGiven the risks I listed above, I continue to look at NIO today as pure speculation for bulls. Of course, the fundamentals are moving in the right direction, and so is valuation (rising cash to market cap is a good metric). But long term, the outlook remains highly uncertain. However, considering my assumption of a better macro setup in China and also the recent updates from the firm, I decided to hold my medium-term speculative \"Buy\" rating.Thank you for reading!Editor's Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":157,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":262120637206600,"gmtCreate":1705029241566,"gmtModify":1705029245480,"author":{"id":"4116122953760472","authorId":"4116122953760472","name":"Cathy Live","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ed116ae5e9a38e726cbc8d6208ca78f2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4116122953760472","authorIdStr":"4116122953760472"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great article&nbsp;","listText":"Great article&nbsp;","text":"Great article","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/262120637206600","repostId":"2402567761","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2402567761","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1704825000,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2402567761?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-01-10 02:30","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Could the Lake Resources share price double in 2024?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2402567761","media":"MotleyFool","summary":"It's that time of the year when the crystal ball is dusted off for some bold predictions.Of course, no one has a working fortune-telling device and the most expert of experts actually can't say with any more certainty than anyone else about what will happen to ASX shares.Since lithium has been such a hot topic the past few years, let's take a look at miner Lake Resources N.L. .Can it possibly double its share price this year?Before we look to the future, let's examine the past.The past 12 months has seen global lithium prices crash.According to TradingEconomics, lithium carbonate was selling for 487,500 CNY per tonne early 2023 but is now going for less than 97,000 CNY.This might go some way to explaining why the Lake Resources share price has tumbled more than 85% since a year ago.What Lake Resources can do internally, and the external factor it can't control. The other driver of the shares, of course, is the lithium price.During the 2021 calendar year, the Lake Resources price gained","content":"<html><body><div>\n<p>It's that time of the year when the crystal ball is dusted off for some bold predictions.</p>\n<p>Of course, no one has a working fortune-telling device and the most expert of experts actually can't say with any more certainty than anyone else about what will happen to ASX shares.</p>\n<p>But we can take some educated guesses.</p>\n<p>Since lithium has been such a hot topic the past few years, let's take a look at miner <strong>Lake Resources N.L.</strong> (ASX: LKE).</p>\n<p>Can it possibly double its share price this year?</p>\n<h2>Annus horribilis</h2>\n<p>Before we look to the future, let's examine the past.</p>\n<p>The past 12 months has seen global lithium prices crash.</p>\n<p>According to TradingEconomics, lithium carbonate was selling for 487,500 CNY per tonne early 2023 but is now going for less than 97,000 CNY.</p>\n<figure><img decoding=\"async\" height=\"373\" src=\"https://www.fool.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/chart-538x373.png\" srcset=\"data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP///yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7\" width=\"538\"/><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" height=\"373\" sizes=\"(max-width: 538px) 100vw, 538px\" src=\"https://www.fool.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/chart-538x373.png\" srcset=\"https://www.fool.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/chart-538x373.png 538w, https://www.fool.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/chart-325x225.png 325w, https://www.fool.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/chart-768x532.png 768w, https://www.fool.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/chart-1200x832.png 1200w, https://www.fool.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/chart.png 1500w\" width=\"538\"/></noscript></figure>\n<p>Despite its lustre as a critical raw material for the world's transition to lower carbon emissions, last year's economic uncertainty was brutal on lithium.</p>\n<p>This might go some way to explaining why the Lake Resources share price has tumbled more than 85% since a year ago.</p>\n<h2>What Lake Resources can do internally, and the external factor it can't control</h2>\n<p>One important factor to remember when assessing Lake Resources' potential is that it is currently highly dependent on one mine named Kachi in Argentina.</p>\n<p>This does give it explosive potential to double its share price in 2024 if favourable results are shown from the samples collected there.</p>\n<p>But there is also substantial risk that the stock tanks even further if the market dislikes the progress.</p>\n<p>To demonstrate this volatility, just before Christmas Lake Resources shares jumped 15% in the same day, after positive definitive feasibility study data was released.</p>\n<figure><img decoding=\"async\" height=\"319\" src=\"https://www.fool.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/image-65-663x319.png\" srcset=\"data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP///yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7\" width=\"663\"/><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" height=\"319\" sizes=\"(max-width: 663px) 100vw, 663px\" src=\"https://www.fool.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/image-65-663x319.png\" srcset=\"https://www.fool.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/image-65-663x319.png 663w, https://www.fool.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/image-65-400x192.png 400w, https://www.fool.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/image-65.png 746w\" width=\"663\"/></noscript></figure>\n<p>The other driver of the shares, of course, is the lithium price.</p>\n<p>In the longer run, many experts do not expect the commodity price to remain in the current doldrums. There is simply too much demand forthcoming in order to build all the electric cars and high-power batteries that the world requires.</p>\n<p>But will the lithium price pick up in 2024? No one knows.</p>\n<p>It's highly dependent on how fast the western consumers can recover from the painful interest rates hikes of the past two years and whether China can finally trigger a much-delayed post-pandemic economic boom.</p>\n<h2>Can history repeat?</h2>\n<p>Anchoring is dangerous because the past is never an indicator of future performance.</p>\n<p>However, analysing the historical record of the Lake Resources share price can give us a clue as to how the market could respond to good or bad news.</p>\n<p>Between February and April in 2022, the shares rocketed 154% in less than two months.</p>\n<p>During the 2021 calendar year, the Lake Resources price gained a whopping 1,343%.</p>\n<p>These events show the market is capable of sending this lithium stock into the stratosphere if it sees developments that it likes.</p>\n<p>So can Lake Resources shares double in 2024?</p>\n<p>It sure can. But it needs everything to go right.</p>\n</div></body></html>","source":"motleyfoolau_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Could the Lake Resources share price double in 2024?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCould the Lake Resources share price double in 2024?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-01-10 02:30 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com.au/2024/01/10/could-the-lake-resources-share-price-double-in-2024/><strong>MotleyFool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>It's that time of the year when the crystal ball is dusted off for some bold predictions.\nOf course, no one has a working fortune-telling device and the most expert of experts actually can't say with ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com.au/2024/01/10/could-the-lake-resources-share-price-double-in-2024/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK7504":"锂钴概念","LKE.AU":"LAKE RESOURCES NL","BK7509":"中概股","PLS.AU":"PILBARA MINERALS LTD","BK7095":"多种金属与采矿","BK7507":"资源股"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com.au/2024/01/10/could-the-lake-resources-share-price-double-in-2024/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2402567761","content_text":"It's that time of the year when the crystal ball is dusted off for some bold predictions.\nOf course, no one has a working fortune-telling device and the most expert of experts actually can't say with any more certainty than anyone else about what will happen to ASX shares.\nBut we can take some educated guesses.\nSince lithium has been such a hot topic the past few years, let's take a look at miner Lake Resources N.L. (ASX: LKE).\nCan it possibly double its share price this year?\nAnnus horribilis\nBefore we look to the future, let's examine the past.\nThe past 12 months has seen global lithium prices crash.\nAccording to TradingEconomics, lithium carbonate was selling for 487,500 CNY per tonne early 2023 but is now going for less than 97,000 CNY.\n\nDespite its lustre as a critical raw material for the world's transition to lower carbon emissions, last year's economic uncertainty was brutal on lithium.\nThis might go some way to explaining why the Lake Resources share price has tumbled more than 85% since a year ago.\nWhat Lake Resources can do internally, and the external factor it can't control\nOne important factor to remember when assessing Lake Resources' potential is that it is currently highly dependent on one mine named Kachi in Argentina.\nThis does give it explosive potential to double its share price in 2024 if favourable results are shown from the samples collected there.\nBut there is also substantial risk that the stock tanks even further if the market dislikes the progress.\nTo demonstrate this volatility, just before Christmas Lake Resources shares jumped 15% in the same day, after positive definitive feasibility study data was released.\n\nThe other driver of the shares, of course, is the lithium price.\nIn the longer run, many experts do not expect the commodity price to remain in the current doldrums. There is simply too much demand forthcoming in order to build all the electric cars and high-power batteries that the world requires.\nBut will the lithium price pick up in 2024? No one knows.\nIt's highly dependent on how fast the western consumers can recover from the painful interest rates hikes of the past two years and whether China can finally trigger a much-delayed post-pandemic economic boom.\nCan history repeat?\nAnchoring is dangerous because the past is never an indicator of future performance.\nHowever, analysing the historical record of the Lake Resources share price can give us a clue as to how the market could respond to good or bad news.\nBetween February and April in 2022, the shares rocketed 154% in less than two months.\nDuring the 2021 calendar year, the Lake Resources price gained a whopping 1,343%.\nThese events show the market is capable of sending this lithium stock into the stratosphere if it sees developments that it likes.\nSo can Lake Resources shares double in 2024?\nIt sure can. But it needs everything to go right.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":269,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":256950488375552,"gmtCreate":1703766101097,"gmtModify":1703769880879,"author":{"id":"4116122953760472","authorId":"4116122953760472","name":"Cathy Live","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ed116ae5e9a38e726cbc8d6208ca78f2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4116122953760472","authorIdStr":"4116122953760472"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Rollercoaster","listText":"Rollercoaster","text":"Rollercoaster","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/256950488375552","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":495,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":766881446297664,"gmtCreate":1687849112918,"gmtModify":1687849501389,"author":{"id":"4116122953760472","authorId":"4116122953760472","name":"Cathy Live","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ed116ae5e9a38e726cbc8d6208ca78f2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4116122953760472","authorIdStr":"4116122953760472"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great Analysis! Thank you for sharing","listText":"Great Analysis! Thank you for sharing","text":"Great Analysis! Thank you for sharing","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/766881446297664","repostId":"2346023063","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":441,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9947524190,"gmtCreate":1683316309910,"gmtModify":1683322493173,"author":{"id":"4116122953760472","authorId":"4116122953760472","name":"Cathy Live","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ed116ae5e9a38e726cbc8d6208ca78f2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4116122953760472","authorIdStr":"4116122953760472"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Smile]&nbsp;[Smile]&nbsp;[Smile]&nbsp;[Smile]&nbsp;//<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/4127523291683312\">@Alice Arnault</a>:<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/3569382039983887\">@AcidIce&nbsp;</a>i will stay on the optimistic side. The current decrease is somewhat of a cyclical process where there was a increase purchase during covid and the stocks will deprecate, secondly there is a lack of applications which need better devices.&nbsp; Look at cars, bags etc, there are millions of units sold everyday so long as the value provided exceeds what is desired","listText":"[Smile]&nbsp;[Smile]&nbsp;[Smile]&nbsp;[Smile]&nbsp;//<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/4127523291683312\">@Alice Arnault</a>:<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/3569382039983887\">@AcidIce&nbsp;</a>i will stay on the optimistic side. The current decrease is somewhat of a cyclical process where there was a increase purchase during covid and the stocks will deprecate, secondly there is a lack of applications which need better devices.&nbsp; Look at cars, bags etc, there are millions of units sold everyday so long as the value provided exceeds what is desired","text":"[Smile] [Smile] [Smile] [Smile] //@Alice Arnault:@AcidIce i will stay on the optimistic side. The current decrease is somewhat of a cyclical process where there was a increase purchase during covid and the stocks will deprecate, secondly there is a lack of applications which need better devices. Look at cars, bags etc, there are millions of units sold everyday so long as the value provided exceeds what is desired","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":15,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9947524190","repostId":"1132764660","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1132764660","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1683210332,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1132764660?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-05-04 22:25","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple Q2 Earnings Preview: Revenue Expected to Drop Again, With Macs Leading Decline","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1132764660","media":"Yahoo Finance","summary":"Apple (AAPL) will report its fiscal Q2 earnings after the bell on Thursday with the tech giant expec","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Apple (AAPL) will report its fiscal Q2 earnings after the bell on Thursday with the tech giant expected to report its second straight year-over-year decline in quarterly revenue.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Apple, like other electronics makers, is dealing with a steep drop off in PC and tablet sales. Both makers Intel (INTC) and AMD (AMD) reported dramatic declines in chip revenue, and Apple appears to be set to announce its own significant declines in Mac and iPad sales.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Here are the numbers Wall Street is looking for in the report, according to data from Bloomberg, compared to how Apple performed in the same quarter last year.</p><ul><li><p><strong>Revenue:</strong> $92.6 billion expected versus $97.3 billion in Q2 2022</p></li><li><p><strong>Adj. EPS:</strong> $1.43 expected versus $1.52 in Q2 2022</p></li><li><p><strong>iPhone:</strong> $48.9 billion expected versus $50.6 billion in Q2 2022</p></li><li><p><strong>Services:</strong> $21.1 billion expected versus $19.8 billion in Q2 2022</p></li><li><p><strong>Mac:</strong> $7.7 billion expected versus $10.4 billion in Q2 2022</p></li><li><p><strong>iPad:</strong> $6.7 billion expected versus $7.6 billion in Q2 2022</p></li><li><p><strong>Wearables:</strong> $8.5 billion expected versus $8.8 billion in Q2 2022</p></li></ul><p style=\"text-align: start;\">In a recent investor note, BofA Global Research analyst Wamsi Mohan wrote that he believes Apple will report a slight beat in Q2, but warns that guidance for Q3 could come in lighter than expected. UBS analyst David Vogt, meanwhile, says that iPhone sell-through to retailers and carriers in the second half of the year could come in lower than anticipated.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">While iPhone sales are expected to decline slightly in Q2, Apple’s Mac business is set to drop a harsh 25% year-over-year, as fewer people need to buy laptops and desktops following the explosive growth the industry experienced during the pandemic.</p><p><a href=\"https://www.gartner.com/en/newsroom/press-releases/04-11-2023-gartner-says-worldwide-pc-shipments-declined-30-percent-in-first-quarter-of-2023\" title=\"According to Gartner\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"link rapid-noclick-resp\"><br/></a>According to Gartner, worldwide PC shipments fell 30% year-over-year in the first quarter of 2023. And that’s hammering chip makers like Intel and AMD, which reported sharp declines in their processor businesses.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Apple’s Services growth is also expected to decline year-over-year, but, more importantly, investors will be looking for any news on how much interest the company’s new high-yield savings account is drawing from consumers.</p><p>Outside of earnings, Apple is preparing to host its annual WWDC conference where the company is largely expected to show off its highly anticipated AR/VR headset. The device, which the company has yet to confirm exists, could provide Apple with another revenue stream, and set up the firm as a key player in the still-nascent market.</p><p>Stocks slid over 1% ahead of its financial results.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce246afe4160c04803e7098b4660e90b\" tg-width=\"655\" tg-height=\"522\"/></p><p></p></body></html>","source":"yahoofinance_sg","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Q2 Earnings Preview: Revenue Expected to Drop Again, With Macs Leading Decline</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Q2 Earnings Preview: Revenue Expected to Drop Again, With Macs Leading Decline\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-05-04 22:25 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.yahoo.com/news/apple-q2-earnings-141710458.html><strong>Yahoo Finance</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Apple (AAPL) will report its fiscal Q2 earnings after the bell on Thursday with the tech giant expected to report its second straight year-over-year decline in quarterly revenue.Apple, like other ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/apple-q2-earnings-141710458.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/apple-q2-earnings-141710458.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1132764660","content_text":"Apple (AAPL) will report its fiscal Q2 earnings after the bell on Thursday with the tech giant expected to report its second straight year-over-year decline in quarterly revenue.Apple, like other electronics makers, is dealing with a steep drop off in PC and tablet sales. Both makers Intel (INTC) and AMD (AMD) reported dramatic declines in chip revenue, and Apple appears to be set to announce its own significant declines in Mac and iPad sales.Here are the numbers Wall Street is looking for in the report, according to data from Bloomberg, compared to how Apple performed in the same quarter last year.Revenue: $92.6 billion expected versus $97.3 billion in Q2 2022Adj. EPS: $1.43 expected versus $1.52 in Q2 2022iPhone: $48.9 billion expected versus $50.6 billion in Q2 2022Services: $21.1 billion expected versus $19.8 billion in Q2 2022Mac: $7.7 billion expected versus $10.4 billion in Q2 2022iPad: $6.7 billion expected versus $7.6 billion in Q2 2022Wearables: $8.5 billion expected versus $8.8 billion in Q2 2022In a recent investor note, BofA Global Research analyst Wamsi Mohan wrote that he believes Apple will report a slight beat in Q2, but warns that guidance for Q3 could come in lighter than expected. UBS analyst David Vogt, meanwhile, says that iPhone sell-through to retailers and carriers in the second half of the year could come in lower than anticipated.While iPhone sales are expected to decline slightly in Q2, Apple’s Mac business is set to drop a harsh 25% year-over-year, as fewer people need to buy laptops and desktops following the explosive growth the industry experienced during the pandemic.According to Gartner, worldwide PC shipments fell 30% year-over-year in the first quarter of 2023. And that’s hammering chip makers like Intel and AMD, which reported sharp declines in their processor businesses.Apple’s Services growth is also expected to decline year-over-year, but, more importantly, investors will be looking for any news on how much interest the company’s new high-yield savings account is drawing from consumers.Outside of earnings, Apple is preparing to host its annual WWDC conference where the company is largely expected to show off its highly anticipated AR/VR headset. The device, which the company has yet to confirm exists, could provide Apple with another revenue stream, and set up the firm as a key player in the still-nascent market.Stocks slid over 1% ahead of its financial results.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":366,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9940113628,"gmtCreate":1677746353465,"gmtModify":1677747207375,"author":{"id":"4116122953760472","authorId":"4116122953760472","name":"Cathy Live","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ed116ae5e9a38e726cbc8d6208ca78f2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4116122953760472","authorIdStr":"4116122953760472"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great post","listText":"Great post","text":"Great post","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9940113628","repostId":"9957259153","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9957259153,"gmtCreate":1677308230173,"gmtModify":1677308851895,"author":{"id":"4113904591642392","authorId":"4113904591642392","name":"LMSunshine","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0ad636f2490d8428fcee9da6d669e46c","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4113904591642392","authorIdStr":"4113904591642392"},"themes":[],"title":"How I Beat The Market By Analysing Economic Data & 🗞🗞🗞 Instead of “Buy the Rumor🗣🗣, Sell the News📰”","htmlText":"\"Buy the rumor🗣🗣, sell the news📰” is a trading strategy that can be used by traders eyeing short-term profits. ✅ In this strategy, traders buy a security based on speculation about an upcoming 📰 event &amp; sell the security when that 📰 is announced. ❌ Disadvantages of the strategy include lack of accuracy &amp; potential loss of opportunity on decisions not made quickly enough💸💸💸 ➡️ A common example of “Buy the 🗣🗣, sell the 🗞🗞🗞” in the stock market is trading based on the expectation of a company's quarterly earnings report. Perhaps there's a rumor that a company is expected to provide more revenue to shareholders than previously thought. In that case, traders will buy the stock quickly to take advantage of increased dividends or stock prices. Once the company has its earnings call or mak","listText":"\"Buy the rumor🗣🗣, sell the news📰” is a trading strategy that can be used by traders eyeing short-term profits. ✅ In this strategy, traders buy a security based on speculation about an upcoming 📰 event &amp; sell the security when that 📰 is announced. ❌ Disadvantages of the strategy include lack of accuracy &amp; potential loss of opportunity on decisions not made quickly enough💸💸💸 ➡️ A common example of “Buy the 🗣🗣, sell the 🗞🗞🗞” in the stock market is trading based on the expectation of a company's quarterly earnings report. Perhaps there's a rumor that a company is expected to provide more revenue to shareholders than previously thought. In that case, traders will buy the stock quickly to take advantage of increased dividends or stock prices. Once the company has its earnings call or mak","text":"\"Buy the rumor🗣🗣, sell the news📰” is a trading strategy that can be used by traders eyeing short-term profits. ✅ In this strategy, traders buy a security based on speculation about an upcoming 📰 event & sell the security when that 📰 is announced. ❌ Disadvantages of the strategy include lack of accuracy & potential loss of opportunity on decisions not made quickly enough💸💸💸 ➡️ A common example of “Buy the 🗣🗣, sell the 🗞🗞🗞” in the stock market is trading based on the expectation of a company's quarterly earnings report. Perhaps there's a rumor that a company is expected to provide more revenue to shareholders than previously thought. In that case, traders will buy the stock quickly to take advantage of increased dividends or stock prices. Once the company has its earnings call or mak","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/19eabe9671eeee46908059cb5b060ec3","width":"1241","height":"1213"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1641d31881234e5b8f380eabf9d6d7a6","width":"1242","height":"755"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0d4633d3f7a7027c2d311e7d83887179","width":"1242","height":"622"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9957259153","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":6,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":355,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9947524190,"gmtCreate":1683316309910,"gmtModify":1683322493173,"author":{"id":"4116122953760472","authorId":"4116122953760472","name":"Cathy Live","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ed116ae5e9a38e726cbc8d6208ca78f2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4116122953760472","authorIdStr":"4116122953760472"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Smile]&nbsp;[Smile]&nbsp;[Smile]&nbsp;[Smile]&nbsp;//<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/4127523291683312\">@Alice Arnault</a>:<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/3569382039983887\">@AcidIce&nbsp;</a>i will stay on the optimistic side. The current decrease is somewhat of a cyclical process where there was a increase purchase during covid and the stocks will deprecate, secondly there is a lack of applications which need better devices.&nbsp; Look at cars, bags etc, there are millions of units sold everyday so long as the value provided exceeds what is desired","listText":"[Smile]&nbsp;[Smile]&nbsp;[Smile]&nbsp;[Smile]&nbsp;//<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/4127523291683312\">@Alice Arnault</a>:<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/3569382039983887\">@AcidIce&nbsp;</a>i will stay on the optimistic side. The current decrease is somewhat of a cyclical process where there was a increase purchase during covid and the stocks will deprecate, secondly there is a lack of applications which need better devices.&nbsp; Look at cars, bags etc, there are millions of units sold everyday so long as the value provided exceeds what is desired","text":"[Smile] [Smile] [Smile] [Smile] //@Alice Arnault:@AcidIce i will stay on the optimistic side. The current decrease is somewhat of a cyclical process where there was a increase purchase during covid and the stocks will deprecate, secondly there is a lack of applications which need better devices. Look at cars, bags etc, there are millions of units sold everyday so long as the value provided exceeds what is desired","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":15,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9947524190","repostId":"1132764660","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":366,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":354370467864624,"gmtCreate":1727524316642,"gmtModify":1727524320522,"author":{"id":"4116122953760472","authorId":"4116122953760472","name":"Cathy Live","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ed116ae5e9a38e726cbc8d6208ca78f2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4116122953760472","authorIdStr":"4116122953760472"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great coverage!&nbsp;","listText":"Great coverage!&nbsp;","text":"Great coverage!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/354370467864624","repostId":"2470081011","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2470081011","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1727510601,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2470081011?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-09-28 16:03","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"NIO: The Tide Is Finally Turning","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2470081011","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"My article examines China's macro environment, highlighting its impact on the financial performance and future prospects of the stock market in general.NIO's financial updates in particular reveal str","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li><p>My article examines China&#39;s macro environment, highlighting its impact on the financial performance and future prospects of the stock market in general.</p></li><li><p>NIO&#39;s financial updates in particular reveal strong revenue growth and solid balance sheets, supporting a positive outlook for the stock.</p></li><li><p>Valuation analysis suggests the stock may have an upside indeed, with NIO having a cash-to-market-cap ratio of 57.5% to date.</p></li><li><p>Although the long term outlook remains highly uncertain, I continue to look at NIO today as pure speculation for bulls.</p></li></ul><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/03ac484e2ce629f35b09aa31866a2290\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"499\"/></p><p>primeimages</p><p></p><h2 id=\"id_2426392888\">My Coverage History &amp; Thesis Update</h2><p>I&#39;ve been covering <strong>NIO Inc.</strong> (NYSE:NIO) stock for quite a long time here on Seeking Alpha. Since November 2022, I&#39;ve been bearish, but then I changed my stance to &#34;Neutral&#34; at the beginning of December 2023 and then finally issued a &#34;Buy&#34; rating, noting that NIO was looking interesting as a speculative &#34;Buy&#34; (that call was made in early March 2024). In early June 2024, I reiterated my &#34;Buy&#34; rating, still seeing a few reasons to stay bullish on NIO in the short-to-medium term.</p><p>I think my bullish thesis hasn&#39;t played out yet, but I see it started to go in the right direction recently:</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0b85cbda3e393e855353c2ba856c2101\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"468\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha, my coverage of NIO stock</p><p></p><p><em>To date, I still believe I was close to marking the local bottom in NIO&#39;s price.</em> I think NIO still has significant growth potential in the medium term, especially as interest from retail and international investors returns to China.</p><h2 id=\"id_3415084607\">Why Do I Think So?</h2><p>Let me first tell you a bit about the macro setup in China the way I see it.</p><p>China has rolled out a sizeable monetary policy easing package a few days ago. The measures include a cut of 50 b.p. on the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) and a 20 b.p. cut on the 7-day reverse REPO rate, thereby releasing bank liquidity for credit creation and asset purchase. Moreover, preexisting mortgage interest rates have been cut to improve consumer confidence. It would have been a hit to the banking sector, but the negative effect on margins should be theoretically offset by lower rates on deposits. Net-net, it&#39;s going to stimulate the economy, in my view.</p><p>At the same time, new special credit lines from the People&#39;s Bank of China (aka PBoC) are now available for funds, investment banks, and insurance companies at low interest rates for share buybacks (~1.75% annually) and for major shareholders to increase their stakes (~2.25%). The CCP tried to encourage a stock market rally, hoping to lift sentiment and trigger a consumer confidence revival that would turn into real money.</p><p>The regulatory changes in August not only made it easier for the PBoC to trade bonds to raise the yield curve and support the banks, but they also removed interest-rate caps on inter-bank lending. So the response of the markets to this announcement last 7 calendar days has been encouraging: the MSCI China ETF (MCHI) is up 17.44%, while the tech sector - China Internet ETF (KWEB) - is up over 22%. The price action looks crazy hot right now:</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/87793b8b4377d463bdfd64abddc26eab\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"439\"/></p><p>Data by YCharts</p><p></p><p>In periods like now, we usually see the most bullish reaction from the assets of &#34;the longest duration&#34; so to speak - in terms of equities, it&#39;s usually unprofitable growth stocks, which have been falling for many quarters. NIO is the perfect fit, and it follows the theoretical rules:</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3aed05b140e8e0ed8b7eb8f4fc40fd02\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"424\"/></p><p>Data by YCharts</p><p></p><p>But NIO isn&#39;t just an unprofitable growth stock.</p><p>Their recent introduction of the SkyOS operating system and the Banyan 3 smart system, along with the development of the Shenji NX9031 chip for smart driving, makes NIO one of the most innovative car brands today, in my view. The launch of the ONVO brand&#39;s 1st model - the L60 - is expected to further boost sales, with a target of reaching a supply capacity of ~10,000 units by the end of the year. This model is priced competitively at only RMB290,900, which is about RMB30,000 cheaper than the Tesla (TSLA) Model Y for comparison, positioning NIO quite well in the Chinese market.</p><p>NIO&#39;s business itself is already growing quite well. The vehicle margin rose to 12.2%, against a 6.2% margin compared with the same quarter last year, because material costs dropped further. The gross margin also rose to 9.7%, which is still low, but against 1% a year ago it looks like a great achievement to me. Even with all those gains, NIO reported a net loss of RMB5 billion, down 16.7% from last year, showing that it&#39;s still early to talk seriously about profitability. Anyway, the cash balance continues to be strong – NIO reported cash and cash equivalents of RMB41.6 billion as of June 30, 2024, which should make it easy to take advantage of future opportunities to invest and grow the business.</p><p>I like NIO&#39;s efforts to extend its charging and swapping network, which seems to be strategically in time. According to a recent press release, NIO has established more than 2,561 power swap stations and more than 23,000 chargers worldwide, helping to meet users&#39; strong demand. The Power Up Partner Plan aims to provide access to NIO&#39;s charging network in every county in mainland China by mid-2025, which will likely further facilitate sales growth and market penetration.</p><p>The management is looking to reach an end-of-year vehicle margin of about 15% and a 3rd factory with a capacity of ~100,000 units (scheduled to come online in Q3 next year). The goal is to increase monthly delivery volumes to 30,000-40,000 units for the NIO brand and a long-term vehicle margin of 25%. The goal for the ONVO brand in particular is a 15% vehicle margin with a competitive pricing position and cutting-edge technology.</p><p>Based on all that, perhaps we&#39;ll see a continuation of the earnings revisions to the upside, which so far touched only the next 3 years:</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/2c0e55b0181bc9e8a00e299265f53fe5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"331\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p></p><p>As I noted above, it&#39;s too early to hope for a bottom-line break even any time soon, but anyway, the market is expecting to see the first positive adjusted EPS in FY2027, so the consensus is already quite pessimistic, leaving little room for much downside from here.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ea823a9a4c1ae37cad3667412e38e1fc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"312\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p></p><p>Honestly, I don&#39;t know if NIO indeed is poised for sustained growth in the long term through its heavy investments in tech, infrastructure, and market expansion. However, I believe the short-to-medium-term momentum is likely to continue as the market participants continue to reprice the Chinese equities.</p><p>Much of the risks that were priced in before came from the China macro concerns and potentially weakening consumers. I wrote about it in my previously bearish articles on NIO (and not only). But those macro headwinds are getting much softer now with the new policy updates. At the same time, I like NIO&#39;s new initiatives with the ONVO brand that keep the management confident in the company&#39;s ability to meet competitive pressures. We&#39;ll see, but it looks like the company has a clear roadmap to guide its growth and development in the medium term.</p><p>I know it&#39;s hard to call NIO undervalued - it has no P/E or EV/EBITDA ratios for our assessment, even on the forwarding basis (again, the firm is projected to break even in FY2027). But on the sales-related ratios, NIO is trading at about the median of the Consumer Discretionary sector:</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8b6978b917e41cd287008cf504f8ea0a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"486\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha, NIO&#39;s Valuation</p><p></p><p>NIO&#39;s P/S ratios fell down over 80% since their 5-year peaks, so probably amid better sentiment they can go up from here. Anyway, on the cash-to-market-cap ratio, NIO still looks quite cheap to me - 57.5% of its market cap is backed by cash so to speak:</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/aed45be967e2819d992fe7274e86539b\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"424\"/></p><p>Data by YCharts</p><p></p><p>I&#39;m not sure what is driving Morningstar Premium&#39;s fair value models (proprietary source), but in NIO&#39;s case we see an undervaluation of over 31%:</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0454ca36cba1f368f99155a5abec1d2d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"260\"/></p><p>Morningstar Premium (proprietary source), notes added</p><p></p><p>Based on all of the above, I decided to maintain my speculative &#34;Buy&#34; rating for NIO for another quarter at least.</p><h2 id=\"id_942063814\">Where Can I Be Wrong?</h2><p>In fact, there are a whole series of risk factors for my thesis - let me touch on the most obvious ones, which I generally covered last time.</p><p>First, I assume that the improving macro environment in China should lure Western investors (and not only Western ones) back to Chinese assets. But this could be a fallacy as it is by no means certain that a) the crisis is over and China will return to a period of stable GDP growth and b) NIO will be a good pick given its financials and deep unprofitability.</p><p>The second risk lies in my reasoning about improving the fundamentals. Again, NIO remains a deeply unprofitable company that constantly needs new capital injections. There&#39;s a risk that the company will quickly &#34;wipe out&#34; any beginnings of recovery growth in its stock quotes by announcing a new share capital issuance - this is a risk I can&#39;t rule out and simply ignore.</p><p>The third risk is that the lack of positive EBITDA does not allow us to value NIO as the financial theory recommends. This is a characteristic of a growth stock, but in any case, investors will have to wait another 3 fiscal years before they see the first positive P/E ratios.</p><h2 id=\"id_1205053800\">The Bottom Line</h2><p>Given the risks I listed above, I continue to look at NIO today as pure speculation for bulls. Of course, the fundamentals are moving in the right direction, and so is valuation (rising cash to market cap is a good metric). But long term, the outlook remains highly uncertain. However, considering my assumption of a better macro setup in China and also the recent updates from the firm, I decided to hold my medium-term speculative &#34;Buy&#34; rating.</p><p><em>Thank you for reading!</em></p><p>Editor&#39;s Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>NIO: The Tide Is Finally Turning</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNIO: The Tide Is Finally Turning\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-09-28 16:03 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4723723-nio-tide-finally-turning><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>My article examines China's macro environment, highlighting its impact on the financial performance and future prospects of the stock market in general.NIO's financial updates in particular reveal ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4723723-nio-tide-finally-turning\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4531":"中概回港概念","09866":"蔚来-SW","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU0708995583.HKD":"TEMPLETON CHINA \"A\" (HKD) ACC","BK4555":"新能源车","BK4509":"腾讯概念","NIO.SI":"蔚来","BK4526":"热门中概股","BK4588":"碎股","NIO":"蔚来","BK4574":"无人驾驶","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","LU0320764599.SGD":"FTIF - Templeton China A Acc SGD","LU0052750758.USD":"富兰克林中国基金A Acc","BK4099":"汽车制造商","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4723723-nio-tide-finally-turning","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2470081011","content_text":"My article examines China's macro environment, highlighting its impact on the financial performance and future prospects of the stock market in general.NIO's financial updates in particular reveal strong revenue growth and solid balance sheets, supporting a positive outlook for the stock.Valuation analysis suggests the stock may have an upside indeed, with NIO having a cash-to-market-cap ratio of 57.5% to date.Although the long term outlook remains highly uncertain, I continue to look at NIO today as pure speculation for bulls.primeimagesMy Coverage History & Thesis UpdateI've been covering NIO Inc. (NYSE:NIO) stock for quite a long time here on Seeking Alpha. Since November 2022, I've been bearish, but then I changed my stance to \"Neutral\" at the beginning of December 2023 and then finally issued a \"Buy\" rating, noting that NIO was looking interesting as a speculative \"Buy\" (that call was made in early March 2024). In early June 2024, I reiterated my \"Buy\" rating, still seeing a few reasons to stay bullish on NIO in the short-to-medium term.I think my bullish thesis hasn't played out yet, but I see it started to go in the right direction recently:Seeking Alpha, my coverage of NIO stockTo date, I still believe I was close to marking the local bottom in NIO's price. I think NIO still has significant growth potential in the medium term, especially as interest from retail and international investors returns to China.Why Do I Think So?Let me first tell you a bit about the macro setup in China the way I see it.China has rolled out a sizeable monetary policy easing package a few days ago. The measures include a cut of 50 b.p. on the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) and a 20 b.p. cut on the 7-day reverse REPO rate, thereby releasing bank liquidity for credit creation and asset purchase. Moreover, preexisting mortgage interest rates have been cut to improve consumer confidence. It would have been a hit to the banking sector, but the negative effect on margins should be theoretically offset by lower rates on deposits. Net-net, it's going to stimulate the economy, in my view.At the same time, new special credit lines from the People's Bank of China (aka PBoC) are now available for funds, investment banks, and insurance companies at low interest rates for share buybacks (~1.75% annually) and for major shareholders to increase their stakes (~2.25%). The CCP tried to encourage a stock market rally, hoping to lift sentiment and trigger a consumer confidence revival that would turn into real money.The regulatory changes in August not only made it easier for the PBoC to trade bonds to raise the yield curve and support the banks, but they also removed interest-rate caps on inter-bank lending. So the response of the markets to this announcement last 7 calendar days has been encouraging: the MSCI China ETF (MCHI) is up 17.44%, while the tech sector - China Internet ETF (KWEB) - is up over 22%. The price action looks crazy hot right now:Data by YChartsIn periods like now, we usually see the most bullish reaction from the assets of \"the longest duration\" so to speak - in terms of equities, it's usually unprofitable growth stocks, which have been falling for many quarters. NIO is the perfect fit, and it follows the theoretical rules:Data by YChartsBut NIO isn't just an unprofitable growth stock.Their recent introduction of the SkyOS operating system and the Banyan 3 smart system, along with the development of the Shenji NX9031 chip for smart driving, makes NIO one of the most innovative car brands today, in my view. The launch of the ONVO brand's 1st model - the L60 - is expected to further boost sales, with a target of reaching a supply capacity of ~10,000 units by the end of the year. This model is priced competitively at only RMB290,900, which is about RMB30,000 cheaper than the Tesla (TSLA) Model Y for comparison, positioning NIO quite well in the Chinese market.NIO's business itself is already growing quite well. The vehicle margin rose to 12.2%, against a 6.2% margin compared with the same quarter last year, because material costs dropped further. The gross margin also rose to 9.7%, which is still low, but against 1% a year ago it looks like a great achievement to me. Even with all those gains, NIO reported a net loss of RMB5 billion, down 16.7% from last year, showing that it's still early to talk seriously about profitability. Anyway, the cash balance continues to be strong – NIO reported cash and cash equivalents of RMB41.6 billion as of June 30, 2024, which should make it easy to take advantage of future opportunities to invest and grow the business.I like NIO's efforts to extend its charging and swapping network, which seems to be strategically in time. According to a recent press release, NIO has established more than 2,561 power swap stations and more than 23,000 chargers worldwide, helping to meet users' strong demand. The Power Up Partner Plan aims to provide access to NIO's charging network in every county in mainland China by mid-2025, which will likely further facilitate sales growth and market penetration.The management is looking to reach an end-of-year vehicle margin of about 15% and a 3rd factory with a capacity of ~100,000 units (scheduled to come online in Q3 next year). The goal is to increase monthly delivery volumes to 30,000-40,000 units for the NIO brand and a long-term vehicle margin of 25%. The goal for the ONVO brand in particular is a 15% vehicle margin with a competitive pricing position and cutting-edge technology.Based on all that, perhaps we'll see a continuation of the earnings revisions to the upside, which so far touched only the next 3 years:Seeking AlphaAs I noted above, it's too early to hope for a bottom-line break even any time soon, but anyway, the market is expecting to see the first positive adjusted EPS in FY2027, so the consensus is already quite pessimistic, leaving little room for much downside from here.Seeking AlphaHonestly, I don't know if NIO indeed is poised for sustained growth in the long term through its heavy investments in tech, infrastructure, and market expansion. However, I believe the short-to-medium-term momentum is likely to continue as the market participants continue to reprice the Chinese equities.Much of the risks that were priced in before came from the China macro concerns and potentially weakening consumers. I wrote about it in my previously bearish articles on NIO (and not only). But those macro headwinds are getting much softer now with the new policy updates. At the same time, I like NIO's new initiatives with the ONVO brand that keep the management confident in the company's ability to meet competitive pressures. We'll see, but it looks like the company has a clear roadmap to guide its growth and development in the medium term.I know it's hard to call NIO undervalued - it has no P/E or EV/EBITDA ratios for our assessment, even on the forwarding basis (again, the firm is projected to break even in FY2027). But on the sales-related ratios, NIO is trading at about the median of the Consumer Discretionary sector:Seeking Alpha, NIO's ValuationNIO's P/S ratios fell down over 80% since their 5-year peaks, so probably amid better sentiment they can go up from here. Anyway, on the cash-to-market-cap ratio, NIO still looks quite cheap to me - 57.5% of its market cap is backed by cash so to speak:Data by YChartsI'm not sure what is driving Morningstar Premium's fair value models (proprietary source), but in NIO's case we see an undervaluation of over 31%:Morningstar Premium (proprietary source), notes addedBased on all of the above, I decided to maintain my speculative \"Buy\" rating for NIO for another quarter at least.Where Can I Be Wrong?In fact, there are a whole series of risk factors for my thesis - let me touch on the most obvious ones, which I generally covered last time.First, I assume that the improving macro environment in China should lure Western investors (and not only Western ones) back to Chinese assets. But this could be a fallacy as it is by no means certain that a) the crisis is over and China will return to a period of stable GDP growth and b) NIO will be a good pick given its financials and deep unprofitability.The second risk lies in my reasoning about improving the fundamentals. Again, NIO remains a deeply unprofitable company that constantly needs new capital injections. There's a risk that the company will quickly \"wipe out\" any beginnings of recovery growth in its stock quotes by announcing a new share capital issuance - this is a risk I can't rule out and simply ignore.The third risk is that the lack of positive EBITDA does not allow us to value NIO as the financial theory recommends. This is a characteristic of a growth stock, but in any case, investors will have to wait another 3 fiscal years before they see the first positive P/E ratios.The Bottom LineGiven the risks I listed above, I continue to look at NIO today as pure speculation for bulls. Of course, the fundamentals are moving in the right direction, and so is valuation (rising cash to market cap is a good metric). But long term, the outlook remains highly uncertain. However, considering my assumption of a better macro setup in China and also the recent updates from the firm, I decided to hold my medium-term speculative \"Buy\" rating.Thank you for reading!Editor's Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":157,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":262120637206600,"gmtCreate":1705029241566,"gmtModify":1705029245480,"author":{"id":"4116122953760472","authorId":"4116122953760472","name":"Cathy Live","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ed116ae5e9a38e726cbc8d6208ca78f2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4116122953760472","authorIdStr":"4116122953760472"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great article&nbsp;","listText":"Great article&nbsp;","text":"Great article","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/262120637206600","repostId":"2402567761","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":269,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":256950488375552,"gmtCreate":1703766101097,"gmtModify":1703769880879,"author":{"id":"4116122953760472","authorId":"4116122953760472","name":"Cathy Live","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ed116ae5e9a38e726cbc8d6208ca78f2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4116122953760472","authorIdStr":"4116122953760472"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Rollercoaster","listText":"Rollercoaster","text":"Rollercoaster","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/256950488375552","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":495,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":766881446297664,"gmtCreate":1687849112918,"gmtModify":1687849501389,"author":{"id":"4116122953760472","authorId":"4116122953760472","name":"Cathy Live","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ed116ae5e9a38e726cbc8d6208ca78f2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4116122953760472","authorIdStr":"4116122953760472"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great Analysis! Thank you for sharing","listText":"Great Analysis! Thank you for sharing","text":"Great Analysis! Thank you for sharing","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/766881446297664","repostId":"2346023063","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2346023063","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1687824074,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2346023063?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-06-27 08:01","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Market Is Running Out Of Fuel","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2346023063","media":"Seekingalpha","summary":"The thing is that the first of the above factors began to weaken. In his testimony before the House Financial Services Committee, Mr. Powell suggested that interest rates needed to rise to address U.S. economic growth and contain price pressures. He reiterated the Fed's determination to bring inflation back down to its 2% target and indicated that further rate hikes could be expected by the end of the year [against the previous hope-driven consensus]. He noted, however, that lowering inflation m","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>While the whole world is watching the fiasco of Putin&#39;s state system in Russia, I decided to once again give a brief overview of new information from the American stock market. I will try to be brief this time. Of course, my previous Sell thesis for the general market has not changed for the last few days. It has only got stronger, and now you find out why.</p><p>Let us first recall what exactly has been the fuel for the rally we have experienced since the beginning of this year. Earlier, I suggested that there were several reasons for such a strong, unidirectional upward movement, including:</p><p>1) the expectation of a more dovish stance from the Fed;</p><p>2) the growing liquidity in the capital markets;</p><p>3) the hype and the Main/Wall Streets&#39; reflections on how AI should change the world;</p><p>4) rather weak consequences after the collapse of SVB and some other banks;</p><p>5) positive expectations from future EPS figures [we have seen a lot of upward revisions lately].</p><p>After identifying these reasons for myself, I tried to relate them to reality and understand how sustainably long they can fuel this rally. That said, of course, these factors cannot be ignored - at the very least, this can lead to opportunity costs or a lot of pain if you are a short seller. But looking at the dynamics of the strength of these factors is critical, in my opinion. And this is where several questions should arise for those who continue to view these factors with great bullish hope. Let&#39;s go in order.</p><p>Why did the markets - S&amp;P 500 (SPY) (SPX) (SP500) - take a break recently after their breathtaking rise? <strong>The thing is that the first of the above factors began to weaken.</strong> In his testimony before the House Financial Services Committee, Mr. Powell suggested that interest rates needed to rise to address U.S. economic growth and contain price pressures. He reiterated the Fed&#39;s determination to bring inflation back down to its 2% target and indicated that further rate hikes could be expected by the end of the year [against the previous hope-driven consensus]. He noted, however, that lowering inflation may require a period of below-average growth and some softening of labor market conditions.</p><p>Okay, but what about liquidity? <strong>As far as I can see, the second driver - liquidity - started to weaken in from of our eyes</strong>, breaking the usual pattern of &#34;liquidity down - markets down,&#34; because the markets have not responded properly to this to date.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3620a7264d2f712662f67a534b31663\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"452\"/></p><p>Financial Times</p><p>As Morgan Stanley&#39;s Mike Wilson recently noted [proprietary source], M2 particularly stands out among the bank&#39;s favorite liquidity measures. In October 2022, global M2 reached its lowest point, signaling a potential turning point for the markets. As anticipated, this led to a rally in stocks. However, it&#39;s now important to acknowledge that <strong>the current performance of the S&amp;P 500 seems to have surpassed its historical correlation with global M2:</strong></p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ffb67d24974f85a64dd37eb3ac77600\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"455\"/></p><p>Morgan Stanley [June 20, 2023 - proprietary source]</p><p>Furthermore, Mr. Wilson notes that while the bailout of depositors by the Fed and the FDIC in March can&#39;t be considered a direct monetary stimulus, it did inject liquidity into the financial system. This injection of liquidity enabled banks to maintain their credit extension activities. However, according to Morgan Stanley&#39;s fixed income strategists, the issuance of Treasury bills and notes over the next 6 months will reach a substantial sum of $1.2 trillion. It&#39;s expected that a significant portion of this amount, <strong>approximately $500 billion, will be funded by drawing down bank reserves</strong>. It is important to consider the historical implications of such reserve drawdowns, as the equity market has typically not performed well in their aftermath:</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84bde5de8ad1e121c1021cb82e295379\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"447\"/></p><p>Morgan Stanley [June 20, 2023 - proprietary source]</p><p>As we can see from the recent inflows to money market instruments, the problems many banks are having with deposits can only get worse in the foreseeable future.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6335feb426b4042e732bdd89a2e0ed9e\" tg-width=\"575\" tg-height=\"457\"/></p><p>BofA [June 2023 - proprietary source]</p><p>If so much money is flowing into the money market, it is not happening out of thin air, but is, in my opinion, primarily due to the &#34;bleeding&#34; of bank deposits. Therefore, <strong>it seems to me that the 4th driver I listed above is also quite weak at the moment</strong>.</p><p>What about AI and LLM models that are supposed to miraculously turn our lives upside down? As I mentioned earlier, this hype has created a kind of bubble whose end is impossible to time. Again, I am not going to try to do that. But - and I think this is a very important point - <strong>it seems to me that the interest of the crowd is showing the first signs of weakening</strong>. One of the clearest signs of this is Google searches on the relevant topics, which started to drop sharply after peaking in April/May. We have already seen something similar in 2022 in the example of another technological trend:</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4079458e432392752605b6781619f16f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"336\"/></p><p>Google Trends</p><p>I am in no way comparing the applicability of LLM models to NFTs - they are completely different animals. Nor am I saying that LLMs will not have a positive impact on the economy. Of course, that&#39;s not the case. But aside from that effect, there are some other things that the stock market is reluctant to acknowledge, focusing only on the positive. Obviously,<strong> the waning of mass interest in ChatGPT should lead to a logical disillusionment</strong>.</p><p>And the last driver, which also seems rather weak to me now, is the EPS upward revisions. I wrote about this last time, and too little time has passed since then for anything to change radically. I believe in Morgan Stanley&#39;s econometric calculations, which have already proven their effectiveness in 2022. According to the bank&#39;s model, we are waiting for a strong downward, not upward, revaluation of EPS figures for S&amp;P 500 companies. So I think the risks to the bulls will continue to escalate with the multiple expansion, which, by the way, almost fully explains the large tech rally YTD:</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e871012145ce36404430f7b60192dca9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"403\"/></p><p>Shared by @MichaelKantro on Twitter [June 17, 2023]</p><h2>Your Takeaway</h2><p>Again, I must warn you about the risks of my next Sell thesis. First, there is a huge amount of subjectivity in what you have just read. Second, I could be wrong about the overall effect of AI on the stock market - perhaps the bubble I see before me is not a bubble. Third, the momentum of the rally is still strong, and the recent weakness does not mean anything yet. I recommend you do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions. I definitely would not short the market - it&#39;s not for me.</p><p>But despite the upside risks, I believe that the actual potential upside for the rally looks is too small to date. The stock market is running out of fuel in many ways - keep that in mind if you are active in tactical positioning or have long speculative positions.</p><p><em>Thank you for reading!</em></p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Market Is Running Out Of Fuel</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Market Is Running Out Of Fuel\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-06-27 08:01 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4613532-market-running-out-of-fuel><strong>Seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>While the whole world is watching the fiasco of Putin's state system in Russia, I decided to once again give a brief overview of new information from the American stock market. I will try to be brief ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4613532-market-running-out-of-fuel\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4613532-market-running-out-of-fuel","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2346023063","content_text":"While the whole world is watching the fiasco of Putin's state system in Russia, I decided to once again give a brief overview of new information from the American stock market. I will try to be brief this time. Of course, my previous Sell thesis for the general market has not changed for the last few days. It has only got stronger, and now you find out why.Let us first recall what exactly has been the fuel for the rally we have experienced since the beginning of this year. Earlier, I suggested that there were several reasons for such a strong, unidirectional upward movement, including:1) the expectation of a more dovish stance from the Fed;2) the growing liquidity in the capital markets;3) the hype and the Main/Wall Streets' reflections on how AI should change the world;4) rather weak consequences after the collapse of SVB and some other banks;5) positive expectations from future EPS figures [we have seen a lot of upward revisions lately].After identifying these reasons for myself, I tried to relate them to reality and understand how sustainably long they can fuel this rally. That said, of course, these factors cannot be ignored - at the very least, this can lead to opportunity costs or a lot of pain if you are a short seller. But looking at the dynamics of the strength of these factors is critical, in my opinion. And this is where several questions should arise for those who continue to view these factors with great bullish hope. Let's go in order.Why did the markets - S&P 500 (SPY) (SPX) (SP500) - take a break recently after their breathtaking rise? The thing is that the first of the above factors began to weaken. In his testimony before the House Financial Services Committee, Mr. Powell suggested that interest rates needed to rise to address U.S. economic growth and contain price pressures. He reiterated the Fed's determination to bring inflation back down to its 2% target and indicated that further rate hikes could be expected by the end of the year [against the previous hope-driven consensus]. He noted, however, that lowering inflation may require a period of below-average growth and some softening of labor market conditions.Okay, but what about liquidity? As far as I can see, the second driver - liquidity - started to weaken in from of our eyes, breaking the usual pattern of \"liquidity down - markets down,\" because the markets have not responded properly to this to date.Financial TimesAs Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson recently noted [proprietary source], M2 particularly stands out among the bank's favorite liquidity measures. In October 2022, global M2 reached its lowest point, signaling a potential turning point for the markets. As anticipated, this led to a rally in stocks. However, it's now important to acknowledge that the current performance of the S&P 500 seems to have surpassed its historical correlation with global M2:Morgan Stanley [June 20, 2023 - proprietary source]Furthermore, Mr. Wilson notes that while the bailout of depositors by the Fed and the FDIC in March can't be considered a direct monetary stimulus, it did inject liquidity into the financial system. This injection of liquidity enabled banks to maintain their credit extension activities. However, according to Morgan Stanley's fixed income strategists, the issuance of Treasury bills and notes over the next 6 months will reach a substantial sum of $1.2 trillion. It's expected that a significant portion of this amount, approximately $500 billion, will be funded by drawing down bank reserves. It is important to consider the historical implications of such reserve drawdowns, as the equity market has typically not performed well in their aftermath:Morgan Stanley [June 20, 2023 - proprietary source]As we can see from the recent inflows to money market instruments, the problems many banks are having with deposits can only get worse in the foreseeable future.BofA [June 2023 - proprietary source]If so much money is flowing into the money market, it is not happening out of thin air, but is, in my opinion, primarily due to the \"bleeding\" of bank deposits. Therefore, it seems to me that the 4th driver I listed above is also quite weak at the moment.What about AI and LLM models that are supposed to miraculously turn our lives upside down? As I mentioned earlier, this hype has created a kind of bubble whose end is impossible to time. Again, I am not going to try to do that. But - and I think this is a very important point - it seems to me that the interest of the crowd is showing the first signs of weakening. One of the clearest signs of this is Google searches on the relevant topics, which started to drop sharply after peaking in April/May. We have already seen something similar in 2022 in the example of another technological trend:Google TrendsI am in no way comparing the applicability of LLM models to NFTs - they are completely different animals. Nor am I saying that LLMs will not have a positive impact on the economy. Of course, that's not the case. But aside from that effect, there are some other things that the stock market is reluctant to acknowledge, focusing only on the positive. Obviously, the waning of mass interest in ChatGPT should lead to a logical disillusionment.And the last driver, which also seems rather weak to me now, is the EPS upward revisions. I wrote about this last time, and too little time has passed since then for anything to change radically. I believe in Morgan Stanley's econometric calculations, which have already proven their effectiveness in 2022. According to the bank's model, we are waiting for a strong downward, not upward, revaluation of EPS figures for S&P 500 companies. So I think the risks to the bulls will continue to escalate with the multiple expansion, which, by the way, almost fully explains the large tech rally YTD:Shared by @MichaelKantro on Twitter [June 17, 2023]Your TakeawayAgain, I must warn you about the risks of my next Sell thesis. First, there is a huge amount of subjectivity in what you have just read. Second, I could be wrong about the overall effect of AI on the stock market - perhaps the bubble I see before me is not a bubble. Third, the momentum of the rally is still strong, and the recent weakness does not mean anything yet. I recommend you do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions. I definitely would not short the market - it's not for me.But despite the upside risks, I believe that the actual potential upside for the rally looks is too small to date. The stock market is running out of fuel in many ways - keep that in mind if you are active in tactical positioning or have long speculative positions.Thank you for reading!","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":441,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9940113628,"gmtCreate":1677746353465,"gmtModify":1677747207375,"author":{"id":"4116122953760472","authorId":"4116122953760472","name":"Cathy Live","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ed116ae5e9a38e726cbc8d6208ca78f2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4116122953760472","authorIdStr":"4116122953760472"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great post","listText":"Great post","text":"Great post","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9940113628","repostId":"9957259153","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9957259153,"gmtCreate":1677308230173,"gmtModify":1677308851895,"author":{"id":"4113904591642392","authorId":"4113904591642392","name":"LMSunshine","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0ad636f2490d8428fcee9da6d669e46c","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4113904591642392","authorIdStr":"4113904591642392"},"themes":[],"title":"How I Beat The Market By Analysing Economic Data & 🗞🗞🗞 Instead of “Buy the Rumor🗣🗣, Sell the News📰”","htmlText":"\"Buy the rumor🗣🗣, sell the news📰” is a trading strategy that can be used by traders eyeing short-term profits. ✅ In this strategy, traders buy a security based on speculation about an upcoming 📰 event &amp; sell the security when that 📰 is announced. ❌ Disadvantages of the strategy include lack of accuracy &amp; potential loss of opportunity on decisions not made quickly enough💸💸💸 ➡️ A common example of “Buy the 🗣🗣, sell the 🗞🗞🗞” in the stock market is trading based on the expectation of a company's quarterly earnings report. Perhaps there's a rumor that a company is expected to provide more revenue to shareholders than previously thought. In that case, traders will buy the stock quickly to take advantage of increased dividends or stock prices. Once the company has its earnings call or mak","listText":"\"Buy the rumor🗣🗣, sell the news📰” is a trading strategy that can be used by traders eyeing short-term profits. ✅ In this strategy, traders buy a security based on speculation about an upcoming 📰 event &amp; sell the security when that 📰 is announced. ❌ Disadvantages of the strategy include lack of accuracy &amp; potential loss of opportunity on decisions not made quickly enough💸💸💸 ➡️ A common example of “Buy the 🗣🗣, sell the 🗞🗞🗞” in the stock market is trading based on the expectation of a company's quarterly earnings report. Perhaps there's a rumor that a company is expected to provide more revenue to shareholders than previously thought. In that case, traders will buy the stock quickly to take advantage of increased dividends or stock prices. Once the company has its earnings call or mak","text":"\"Buy the rumor🗣🗣, sell the news📰” is a trading strategy that can be used by traders eyeing short-term profits. ✅ In this strategy, traders buy a security based on speculation about an upcoming 📰 event & sell the security when that 📰 is announced. ❌ Disadvantages of the strategy include lack of accuracy & potential loss of opportunity on decisions not made quickly enough💸💸💸 ➡️ A common example of “Buy the 🗣🗣, sell the 🗞🗞🗞” in the stock market is trading based on the expectation of a company's quarterly earnings report. Perhaps there's a rumor that a company is expected to provide more revenue to shareholders than previously thought. In that case, traders will buy the stock quickly to take advantage of increased dividends or stock prices. Once the company has its earnings call or mak","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/19eabe9671eeee46908059cb5b060ec3","width":"1241","height":"1213"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1641d31881234e5b8f380eabf9d6d7a6","width":"1242","height":"755"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0d4633d3f7a7027c2d311e7d83887179","width":"1242","height":"622"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9957259153","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":6,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":355,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}