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2023-03-30

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The "real murderer" emerges! A transaction of more than 30 million yuan caused a tragedy of 220 billion yuan! They started to buy the bottom greedy

2022-07-18

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2022-07-15

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2022-07-14

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2022-07-11

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2022-07-09

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Behind Abe's assassination, how did the Japanese economy "lose" for three decades?

2022-07-07

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2022-07-06

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2022-07-04

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Wenzhou's richest man fought Wall Street, JPMorgan Chase lost 800 million

2022-07-02

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2022-07-02

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2022-07-02

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2022-07-01

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2022-07-01

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Singapore Bourse May Give Up Support At 3,100 Points

2022-06-30

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Singapore Stocks to Watch: Yanlord, Straits Trading, TTJ, Second Chance, IWOW

2022-06-30

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Central Bankers Write Requiem for Low-Inflation Strategies

2022-06-29

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Palantir: This Is What A Rare Buying Opportunity Looks Like

2022-06-29

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Alibaba: 5 Reasons To Buy, 2 Reasons To Sell

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Yean","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0965e84896827ab38942412eb422457d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4118888674291832","authorIdStr":"4118888674291832"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"OK","listText":"OK","text":"OK","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9941873909","repostId":"2323273475","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2323273475","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"致力于提供最及时的财经资讯，最专业的解读分析，覆盖宏观经济、金融机构、A股市场、上市公司、投资理财等财经领域。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"券商中国","id":"9","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d482d56459984e8c86a6a137295b3c4f"},"pubTimestamp":1680140064,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2323273475?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-30 09:34","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The \"real murderer\" emerges! A transaction of more than 30 million yuan caused a tragedy of 220 billion yuan! They started to buy the bottom greedy","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2323273475","media":"券商中国","summary":"危机之下，恐慌情绪往往会被无限放大。当前，欧洲万亿银行巨头——德意志银行离奇闪崩的“真凶”，逐渐浮出水面。当地时间3月28日，欧洲多家监管机构认为，一笔有关德意志银行信用违约互换(CDS)的交易，引发","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Under a crisis, panic is often infinitely amplified.</p><p>Currently, European trillion-dollar banking giants-<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">Deutsche Bank</a>The \"real murderer\" of the bizarre flash crash gradually surfaced. On March 28, local time, many European regulatory agencies believed that a related<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0H7D.UK\">Deutsche Bank</a>The credit default swap (CDS) transaction triggered a fierce sell-off in Deutsche Bank stocks and even the European banking industry last Friday, which once caused the market value of the index tracking European bank stocks to evaporate by more than 30 billion euros (about 220 billion yuan).</p><p><strong>In addition, more details about the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank have also been revealed. On March 28, local time, Michael Barr, the Federal Reserve's vice chairman in charge of supervision, testified before the U.S. Senate Banking Committee that on the day it declared bankruptcy (March 10, local time), Silicon Valley Bank suffered a run of as much as US $100 billion, which made the bank A total of US $142 billion (approximately RMB 1,058.2 billion) flowed out within two days.</strong></p><p>It is worth mentioning that activist investors on Wall Street are currently aggressively bargaining regional bank stocks with strong fundamentals. Data show that in the past two weeks,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EEMA\">iShares</a>The net subscription amount of regional bank ETFs in the United States reached US $236.2 million (approximately RMB 1.8 billion), a record high.</p><p><strong>220 billion \"tragedy\"</strong></p><p>On March 28, local time, many European regulators believed that a transaction related to Deutsche Bank's credit default swap (CDS) triggered a fierce sell-off in Deutsche Bank's stock and even the European banking industry last Friday.</p><p><strong>According to people familiar with the matter, a bet of about 5 million euros (about 37.35 million yuan) on a swap transaction related to Deutsche Bank's subordinated debt may be the chief culprit of the \"Deutsche Bank panic\". Regulators have communicated with market participants about this transaction. Such contracts are usually illiquid, and at a time when market confidence is lacking, any disturbance may cause a huge shock.</strong></p><p>On the 24th local time, Deutsche Bank's European stocks suddenly staged a flash crash, with the largest intraday drop of nearly 15%, the largest intraday drop since March 2002, which even worried the market that it would experience a new round of \"life and death weekend\" in the banking industry, which also caused the market value of the index tracking European banking stocks to evaporate by more than 30 billion euros (about 220 billion yuan) instantly.</p><p>Behind a 5 million CDS transaction that destroyed the market value of 30 billion euros is the market's panic psychology about the European banking industry.</p><p><strong>According to people familiar with the matter, so far, there is no evidence of any wrongdoing in this CDS transaction, and some data suggest that this transaction may be to hedge risks.</strong></p><p>CDS is a derivative contract. Investors use CDS to hedge their investments or bet on changes in corporate creditworthiness. The surge in CDS prices may reflect widespread anxiety about the banking system, as well as turmoil in riskier European bank debt.</p><p>Deutsche Bank's five-year CDS soared from less than 100 basis points two weeks ago to more than 200 basis points last Friday. Market interpretation believes that following the collapse of three U.S. banks and the explosion of Credit Suisse, the German banking giant may be the next financial institution under pressure.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1ac443dad1a4ea8bd5abbdb8ddfb159\" alt=\"\"/></p><p>It is worth mentioning that as of the end of 2022, Deutsche Bank's total assets exceeded 1.3 trillion euros. It is a century-old European bank and one of the 30 global systemically important banks recognized by global banking regulators.</p><p>At present, Europe's top regulator is calling for stricter scrutiny of CDS.</p><p>Andrea Enria, chairman of the European Central Bank's supervisory board, said that \"opaque\" credit default swap (CDS) trading is hurting bank share prices and may even lead to a massive run on banks. It is very worrying that only a few million euros of transactions can crush a bank with trillions of euros of assets.</p><p>Enria further pointed out that the CDS market is \"very opaque and very illiquid\" and that the CDS market should \"improve transparency\" by changing all transactions to clearing by a central counterparty, which is reviewed by the Global Financial Stability Board.</p><p><strong>2-day run on 1 trillion</strong></p><p>At the same time, more details about the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank have gradually been revealed.</p><p>On March 28, local time, Michael Barr, the Federal Reserve's vice chairman in charge of supervision, testified before the U.S. Senate Banking Committee that on the day it declared bankruptcy (March 10, local time), Silicon Valley Bank suffered a run of as much as US $100 billion, which made the bank The bank had a total outflow of US $142 billion (approximately more than RMB 1 trillion) within two days.</p><p>Michael Barr further said that Fed staff worked around the clock on March 9, trying to find enough collateral to borrow billions more from the Fed's discount window to meet withdrawal requests. They raised as much money as they could until the morning of March 10, but then encountered a larger withdrawal.</p><p>During the hearing, Michael Barr revealed that Federal Reserve banking regulators have been in close and repeated contact with Silicon Valley Bank executives for nearly a year to warn of high interest rates and liquidity risks.</p><p><strong>According to the testimony, Fed regulators issued six warnings \"near the end of 2021,\" and two more in May 2022. But the bank \"failed to address\" the Fed's concerns in a timely manner.</strong></p><p>At this hearing, senior officials from the Federal Reserve, the Treasury Department and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) all hinted that there would be changes in banking regulations, and stricter new capital and liquidity regulations were coming. Barr said he expected banks with more than $100 billion in assets to \"need to strengthen their capital and liquidity standards\".</p><p><strong>Rare big bargain hunting</strong></p><p>Risks rise and opportunities fall.</p><p>After the complete release of the U.S. banking crisis, activist investors on Wall Street are aggressively bargaining regional bank stocks with strong fundamentals. Data show that in the past two weeks, the net subscription amount of iShares U.S. regional bank ETF reached US $236.2 million, a record high.</p><p><strong>The sudden collapse of Silicon Valley Bank triggered a collapse in the U.S. banking industry. The ETF has fallen nearly 26% since the Silicon Valley Bank explosion on March 8.</strong></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e92d5620d65b4d33948356a46e0e32f8\" alt=\"\"/></p><p>Some fund managers believe that after this rare large-scale sell-off, a large number of high-quality \"bargains\" have appeared in the market. Banks that were relatively far from the epicenter of the storm also suffered a 20%-plus plunge, so valuations of those banks improved substantially, said Hunter Doble, portfolio manager at Hotchkis & Wiley.</p><p>Doble's current holdings include<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CFG\">Citizens Financial Group</a>Inc,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USB\">U.S. Bancorp</a>The stocks of large regional banks, including the former, fell by 22% during the year, and the latter by about 18% during the year.</p><p>Christopher Marinac, head of research at Janney Montgomery Scott, also believes that the balance sheets of U.S. regional banks are stronger than market expectations, and he further recommends buy West<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601099\">Pacific Ocean</a>United Bank,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NYCB\">New York Community Bank</a>, and gave reasons that the loan loss reserve ratio of the banking industry has increased from 0.92% in the fourth quarter of 2019 to the latest estimate of 1.12%.</p><p>At the same time, there are various signs that the probability of effectively controlling the banking crisis in the United States is increasing. Among them, First Citizens Bank has promised to acquire Silicon Valley Bank; U.S. authorities are also considering expanding an emergency loan facility to provide more support to banks.</p><p>On March 28, local time, U.S. President Biden stated that the crisis involving U.S. regional banks is easing, and he has done everything possible to use existing institutions to solve the crisis, although the crisis is \"not over yet.\"</p><p><strong>However, it should be pointed out that at present, the risks of U.S. bank stocks have not been completely alleviated, especially for small and medium-sized banks. A large number of depositors have transferred their deposits to big banks, and some depositors have even directly transferred their deposits to short-term U.S. Treasury Bond, money market funds and other assets.</strong></p><p>According to data released Monday by data provider EPFR, more than $286 billion has flowed into money market funds since March this year, the largest since the epidemic.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The \"real murderer\" emerges! A transaction of more than 30 million yuan caused a tragedy of 220 billion yuan! They started to buy the bottom greedy</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe \"real murderer\" emerges! A transaction of more than 30 million yuan caused a tragedy of 220 billion yuan! They started to buy the bottom greedy\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/9\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d482d56459984e8c86a6a137295b3c4f);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">券商中国 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2023-03-30 09:34</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Under a crisis, panic is often infinitely amplified.</p><p>Currently, European trillion-dollar banking giants-<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">Deutsche Bank</a>The \"real murderer\" of the bizarre flash crash gradually surfaced. On March 28, local time, many European regulatory agencies believed that a related<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0H7D.UK\">Deutsche Bank</a>The credit default swap (CDS) transaction triggered a fierce sell-off in Deutsche Bank stocks and even the European banking industry last Friday, which once caused the market value of the index tracking European bank stocks to evaporate by more than 30 billion euros (about 220 billion yuan).</p><p><strong>In addition, more details about the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank have also been revealed. On March 28, local time, Michael Barr, the Federal Reserve's vice chairman in charge of supervision, testified before the U.S. Senate Banking Committee that on the day it declared bankruptcy (March 10, local time), Silicon Valley Bank suffered a run of as much as US $100 billion, which made the bank A total of US $142 billion (approximately RMB 1,058.2 billion) flowed out within two days.</strong></p><p>It is worth mentioning that activist investors on Wall Street are currently aggressively bargaining regional bank stocks with strong fundamentals. Data show that in the past two weeks,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EEMA\">iShares</a>The net subscription amount of regional bank ETFs in the United States reached US $236.2 million (approximately RMB 1.8 billion), a record high.</p><p><strong>220 billion \"tragedy\"</strong></p><p>On March 28, local time, many European regulators believed that a transaction related to Deutsche Bank's credit default swap (CDS) triggered a fierce sell-off in Deutsche Bank's stock and even the European banking industry last Friday.</p><p><strong>According to people familiar with the matter, a bet of about 5 million euros (about 37.35 million yuan) on a swap transaction related to Deutsche Bank's subordinated debt may be the chief culprit of the \"Deutsche Bank panic\". Regulators have communicated with market participants about this transaction. Such contracts are usually illiquid, and at a time when market confidence is lacking, any disturbance may cause a huge shock.</strong></p><p>On the 24th local time, Deutsche Bank's European stocks suddenly staged a flash crash, with the largest intraday drop of nearly 15%, the largest intraday drop since March 2002, which even worried the market that it would experience a new round of \"life and death weekend\" in the banking industry, which also caused the market value of the index tracking European banking stocks to evaporate by more than 30 billion euros (about 220 billion yuan) instantly.</p><p>Behind a 5 million CDS transaction that destroyed the market value of 30 billion euros is the market's panic psychology about the European banking industry.</p><p><strong>According to people familiar with the matter, so far, there is no evidence of any wrongdoing in this CDS transaction, and some data suggest that this transaction may be to hedge risks.</strong></p><p>CDS is a derivative contract. Investors use CDS to hedge their investments or bet on changes in corporate creditworthiness. The surge in CDS prices may reflect widespread anxiety about the banking system, as well as turmoil in riskier European bank debt.</p><p>Deutsche Bank's five-year CDS soared from less than 100 basis points two weeks ago to more than 200 basis points last Friday. Market interpretation believes that following the collapse of three U.S. banks and the explosion of Credit Suisse, the German banking giant may be the next financial institution under pressure.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1ac443dad1a4ea8bd5abbdb8ddfb159\" alt=\"\"/></p><p>It is worth mentioning that as of the end of 2022, Deutsche Bank's total assets exceeded 1.3 trillion euros. It is a century-old European bank and one of the 30 global systemically important banks recognized by global banking regulators.</p><p>At present, Europe's top regulator is calling for stricter scrutiny of CDS.</p><p>Andrea Enria, chairman of the European Central Bank's supervisory board, said that \"opaque\" credit default swap (CDS) trading is hurting bank share prices and may even lead to a massive run on banks. It is very worrying that only a few million euros of transactions can crush a bank with trillions of euros of assets.</p><p>Enria further pointed out that the CDS market is \"very opaque and very illiquid\" and that the CDS market should \"improve transparency\" by changing all transactions to clearing by a central counterparty, which is reviewed by the Global Financial Stability Board.</p><p><strong>2-day run on 1 trillion</strong></p><p>At the same time, more details about the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank have gradually been revealed.</p><p>On March 28, local time, Michael Barr, the Federal Reserve's vice chairman in charge of supervision, testified before the U.S. Senate Banking Committee that on the day it declared bankruptcy (March 10, local time), Silicon Valley Bank suffered a run of as much as US $100 billion, which made the bank The bank had a total outflow of US $142 billion (approximately more than RMB 1 trillion) within two days.</p><p>Michael Barr further said that Fed staff worked around the clock on March 9, trying to find enough collateral to borrow billions more from the Fed's discount window to meet withdrawal requests. They raised as much money as they could until the morning of March 10, but then encountered a larger withdrawal.</p><p>During the hearing, Michael Barr revealed that Federal Reserve banking regulators have been in close and repeated contact with Silicon Valley Bank executives for nearly a year to warn of high interest rates and liquidity risks.</p><p><strong>According to the testimony, Fed regulators issued six warnings \"near the end of 2021,\" and two more in May 2022. But the bank \"failed to address\" the Fed's concerns in a timely manner.</strong></p><p>At this hearing, senior officials from the Federal Reserve, the Treasury Department and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) all hinted that there would be changes in banking regulations, and stricter new capital and liquidity regulations were coming. Barr said he expected banks with more than $100 billion in assets to \"need to strengthen their capital and liquidity standards\".</p><p><strong>Rare big bargain hunting</strong></p><p>Risks rise and opportunities fall.</p><p>After the complete release of the U.S. banking crisis, activist investors on Wall Street are aggressively bargaining regional bank stocks with strong fundamentals. Data show that in the past two weeks, the net subscription amount of iShares U.S. regional bank ETF reached US $236.2 million, a record high.</p><p><strong>The sudden collapse of Silicon Valley Bank triggered a collapse in the U.S. banking industry. The ETF has fallen nearly 26% since the Silicon Valley Bank explosion on March 8.</strong></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e92d5620d65b4d33948356a46e0e32f8\" alt=\"\"/></p><p>Some fund managers believe that after this rare large-scale sell-off, a large number of high-quality \"bargains\" have appeared in the market. Banks that were relatively far from the epicenter of the storm also suffered a 20%-plus plunge, so valuations of those banks improved substantially, said Hunter Doble, portfolio manager at Hotchkis & Wiley.</p><p>Doble's current holdings include<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CFG\">Citizens Financial Group</a>Inc,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USB\">U.S. Bancorp</a>The stocks of large regional banks, including the former, fell by 22% during the year, and the latter by about 18% during the year.</p><p>Christopher Marinac, head of research at Janney Montgomery Scott, also believes that the balance sheets of U.S. regional banks are stronger than market expectations, and he further recommends buy West<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601099\">Pacific Ocean</a>United Bank,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NYCB\">New York Community Bank</a>, and gave reasons that the loan loss reserve ratio of the banking industry has increased from 0.92% in the fourth quarter of 2019 to the latest estimate of 1.12%.</p><p>At the same time, there are various signs that the probability of effectively controlling the banking crisis in the United States is increasing. Among them, First Citizens Bank has promised to acquire Silicon Valley Bank; U.S. authorities are also considering expanding an emergency loan facility to provide more support to banks.</p><p>On March 28, local time, U.S. President Biden stated that the crisis involving U.S. regional banks is easing, and he has done everything possible to use existing institutions to solve the crisis, although the crisis is \"not over yet.\"</p><p><strong>However, it should be pointed out that at present, the risks of U.S. bank stocks have not been completely alleviated, especially for small and medium-sized banks. A large number of depositors have transferred their deposits to big banks, and some depositors have even directly transferred their deposits to short-term U.S. Treasury Bond, money market funds and other assets.</strong></p><p>According to data released Monday by data provider EPFR, more than $286 billion has flowed into money market funds since March this year, the largest since the epidemic.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09ef3608878142de83f534f9c79a3fdf","relate_stocks":{"DB":"德意志银行"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2323273475","content_text":"危机之下，恐慌情绪往往会被无限放大。当前，欧洲万亿银行巨头——德意志银行离奇闪崩的“真凶”，逐渐浮出水面。当地时间3月28日，欧洲多家监管机构认为，一笔有关德意志银行信用违约互换(CDS)的交易，引发了上周五德银股票乃至欧洲银行业遭遇的凶猛抛售，一度导致追踪欧洲银行股的指数市值蒸发超300亿欧元（约合人民币2200亿元）。另外，关于硅谷银行轰然倒塌的更多细节也被披露出来。当地时间3月28日，美联储负责监管的副主席Michael Barr在美国参议院银行委员会作证时表示，宣告破产当天（当地时间3月10日），硅谷银行遭遇的挤兑高达1000亿美元，这使得该银行在两天内共计流出了1420亿美元（约合人民币10582亿元）。值得一提的是，目前华尔街的激进投资者正在大举抄底基本面强劲的地区性银行股票。数据显示，过去两周内，iShares美国地区性银行ETF获净申购金额达到2.362亿美元（约合人民币18亿元），创出历史最高纪录。2200亿的“惨案”当地时间3月28日，欧洲多家监管机构认为，一笔有关德意志银行信用违约互换(CDS)的交易，引发了上周五德银股票乃至欧洲银行业遭遇的凶猛抛售。据知情人士透露，一笔约500万欧元（约合人民币3735万元）押注于与德银次级债相关的互换交易，可能是导致“德银恐慌”的罪魁祸首，监管机构已跟市场参与者们沟通过这笔交易。此类合约通常缺乏流动性，在市场信心缺失之际，任何风吹草动都可能引发巨震。当地时间24日，德意志银行的欧股突然上演闪崩，盘中最大跌幅近15%，创2002年3月以来的最大盘中跌幅，甚至令市场担忧，又将经历新一轮银行业的“生死周末”，这也导致追踪欧洲银行股的指数市值瞬间蒸发超300亿欧元（约合人民币2200亿元）。一笔500万的CDS交易打掉300亿欧元市值的背后是，市场对欧洲银行业的恐慌性心理。知情人士称，到目前为止，还没有证据表明，这笔CDS交易有任何不法行为，一些数据表明，这一交易可能是为了对冲风险。CDS是一种衍生品合约，投资者用CDS来对冲自己的投资，或用来对企业信用度的变化进行押注。CDS价格的飙升可能反映了对银行系统的普遍焦虑情绪，以及风险较大的欧洲银行债务的动荡。德银的五年期CDS从两周前的不到100个基点一度飙升至上周五的逾200个基点，市场解读认为，继三家美国银行倒闭和瑞信爆雷后，这只德国银行巨头可能是下一家面临压力的金融机构。值得一提的是，截至2022年底，德意志银行总资产规模超过1.3万亿欧元，是一家拥有百年历史的欧洲银行，也是全球银行业监管机构认定的30家全球系统重要性银行之一。当前，欧洲最高监管机构正在呼吁对CDS进行更为严格的审查。欧洲央行监事会主席Andrea Enria表示，“不透明”的信用违约互换(CDS)交易正在损害银行股价，甚至可能导致银行遭到大规模挤兑。只要有几百万欧元的交易，就可以击垮一家拥有万亿欧元资产的银行，这令人非常担忧。Enria进一步指出，CDS市场“非常不透明且流动性非常差”，CDS市场应该将全部交易改由中央对手方清算，从而“提高透明度”，并由全球金融稳定委员会(Financial Stability Board)进行审查。2天挤兑10000亿与此同时，关于硅谷银行轰然倒塌的更多细节也逐渐披露出来。当地时间3月28日，美联储负责监管的副主席Michael Barr在美国参议院银行委员会作证时表示，在宣告破产当天（当地时间3月10日），硅谷银行遭遇的挤兑高达1000亿美元，这使得该银行在两天内共计流出了1420亿美元（约合人民币超10000亿元）。Michael Barr进一步表示，美联储工作人员在3月9日夜以继日地工作，试图寻找足够的抵押品，从美联储的贴现窗口再借入数十亿美元以满足提现请求。直到3月10日上午，他们筹集了尽可能多的资金，但随后遭遇了更大规模的提款。在听证会上，Michael Barr透露，近一年以来，美联储银行监管机构一直与硅谷银行高管保持密切和反复的联系，以警告高利率和流动性风险。根据证词，美联储监管机构在“接近2021年底”发布了六次警告，在2022年5月又发布了两次警告。但该银行“未能及时解决”美联储的担忧。在这场听证会上，美联储、财政部和联邦存款保险公司（FDIC）的高官都暗示，银行业监管规定将会有改变，更严格的资本和流动性新规将至。Barr称，他预计资产超过1000亿美元的银行将“需要强化资本和流动性的标准”。罕见大抄底风险是涨出来的，机会是跌出来的。在美国银行业危机彻底释放后，华尔街的激进投资者正在大举抄底基本面强劲的地区性银行股票。数据显示，过去两周内，iShares美国地区性银行ETF获净申购金额达到2.362亿美元，创出历史最高纪录。硅谷银行的骤然倒闭，引发了美国银行业的大溃败。自3月8日硅谷银行爆雷以来，该ETF已经下跌了近26%。部分基金经理认为，这一轮罕见的大规模抛售过后，市场出现了大量优质的“便宜货”。Hotchkis & Wiley投资组合经理Hunter Doble表示，相对远离风暴中心的银行也遭遇了20%以上的暴跌，因此这些银行的估值有了实质性改善。Doble目前持有包括Citizens Financial Group Inc、美国合众银行在内的大型地区性银行的股票，前者股价年内跌幅达22%，后者年内下跌约18%。Janney Montgomery Scott研究主管Christopher Marinac也认为，美国地区性银行的资产负债表比市场预期的更强劲，其进一步建议，买入西太平洋合众银行、纽约社区银行，并给出理由称，银行业的贷款损失准备金率已经从2019年第四季度的0.92%上升到了最新预估的1.12%。同时，种种迹象表明，美国银行业危机得到有效控制的概率正在增加。其中，第一公民银行已经承诺收购硅谷银行；美国当局也正在考虑扩大一项紧急贷款安排，为银行提供更多支持。当地时间3月28日，美国总统拜登表示，涉及美国区域银行的危机正在缓解，他已尽一切可能，利用现有机构来解决危机，虽然这场危机眼下“尚未结束”。但需要指出的是，目前美股银行股的风险尚未完全缓解，尤其是对中小型银行而言，大量储户已经将存款转移到大银行，部分储户甚至直接将存款转而投资于短期美国国债、货币市场基金等资产。据数据提供商EPFR周一公布的数据显示，今年3月以来，已有超过2860亿美元的资金流入货币市场基金，创疫情以来最大纪录。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"DB":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2523,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9075976867,"gmtCreate":1658139094159,"gmtModify":1676536111075,"author":{"id":"4118888674291832","authorId":"4118888674291832","name":"Hui 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Yean","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0965e84896827ab38942412eb422457d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4118888674291832","authorIdStr":"4118888674291832"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9076060107","repostId":"1166021735","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3080,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9071182273,"gmtCreate":1657501342392,"gmtModify":1676536014330,"author":{"id":"4118888674291832","authorId":"4118888674291832","name":"Hui Yean","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0965e84896827ab38942412eb422457d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4118888674291832","authorIdStr":"4118888674291832"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"OK","listText":"OK","text":"OK","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9071182273","repostId":"2250061276","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2357,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9073865314,"gmtCreate":1657327763138,"gmtModify":1676535991105,"author":{"id":"4118888674291832","authorId":"4118888674291832","name":"Hui Yean","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0965e84896827ab38942412eb422457d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4118888674291832","authorIdStr":"4118888674291832"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"OK","listText":"OK","text":"OK","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9073865314","repostId":"1172335974","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1172335974","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1657272279,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1172335974?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-08 17:24","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Behind Abe's assassination, how did the Japanese economy \"lose\" for three decades?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1172335974","media":"风暴眼工作室","summary":"7月8日，日本前首相安倍晋三遭遇枪击的消息震惊全世界。据央视报道，当地时间8日，日本前首相安倍晋三当天上午在奈良发表演讲时中枪 。据悉，安倍晋三在上救护车时还有意识，目前安倍晋三已经没有生命体征。日元","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On July 8th, the news that former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was shot shocked the whole world.</p><p>According to CCTV reports, on the 8th local time, former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was shot when he delivered a speech in Nara that morning. It is reported that Shinzo Abe was still conscious when he got on the ambulance. At present, Shinzo Abe has no vital signs.</p><p>The yen exchange rate was also affected. As of 11:30 on July 8, the decline of the US dollar against the yen expanded to 0.47% to 135.37, and the yen appreciated.</p><p>Why did the yen suddenly appreciate after Abe's assassination? Perhaps it has something to do with the \"Abenomics\" promoted during his term of office. After Shinzo Abe took office at the end of 2012, he accelerated the implementation of a series of economic stimulus policies, the most notable of which was the loose monetary policy, and the yen exchange rate began to depreciate at an accelerated pace.</p><p>Since the beginning of this year, the yen exchange rate has continued to fall more obviously. On June 13th, the exchange rate of the Japanese yen against the US dollar once fell below the 135 yen to 1 US dollar mark, setting a new low in about 24 years. In more than a year since the beginning of 2021, the yen has depreciated significantly by more than 25% relative to the US dollar.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73ac608c7438fa9083c60e6af1c6dfd9\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"330\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>As a traditional safe-haven currency, it continued to plummet, causing Japanese bonds and yen assets to begin to be sold off sharply.</p><p>While Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda reiterated his view that the Bank of Japan must maintain its massive stimulus plan to shore up the fragile economic recovery.</p><p>But for ordinary Japanese, it is still debatable whether the fragile economic recovery needs to be supported by the sharp depreciation of the yen. After all, as a big importer, Japan's energy dependence on foreign countries is as high as 88%, and its food self-sufficiency rate is only 37%. The rise in commodity prices brought about by the depreciation of the yen will directly affect citizens' lives.</p><p>Especially after so many years of substantial easing, since the Japanese economy collapsed in 1990, Japan's average annual GDP growth rate has been less than 1%.</p><p>The real estate has been widened, the price has been widened, but the disposable income of residents has not been widened, and people somewhat lack confidence. After experiencing the \"lost decade\", \"lost twenty years\" and \"lost thirty years\", Japan's lost eyes are going to the time dimension of Atlantis.</p><p>In the fourth decade, will Japan be able to make a comeback?</p><p><b>Abe and his \"Abenomics\"</b></p><p>Although Shinzo Abe resigned as prime minister in August 2020, the sharp depreciation of the yen is closely related to his \"Abenomics\".</p><p>At the end of 2012, Shinzo Abe once again served as the Prime Minister of Japan, and immediately threw out the route of \"fighting for the economy\", which was heated as \"Abenomics\" by the media.</p><p>The so-called \"Abenomics\" is a policy combination to solve Japan's economic problems through experimental monetary policy (QQE for short), proactive fiscal policy and economic structural reform. Including \"three major strategies\":</p><p>First, it proposed the largest quantitative easing (QE) monetary policy in Japanese history, and the central bank purchased 7.5 trillion yen of Treasury Bond every month;</p><p>Second, break through the expansionary fiscal policy of the previous government with a total budget of 70 trillion yen;</p><p>Third, a package of growth strategies including the Trans-Pacific Strategic Economic Partnership Agreement (TPP), deregulation to arouse private investment and promote innovation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79ef0cf1ad82f6f4d2dbd2d9e5cde013\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Abenomics is the latest effort to solve Japan's economic downturn since 1990s. So how effective is the implementation?</p><p>An analysis article of global macro speculation pointed out that Abenomics is a great economic experiment. Japanese financiers and politicians broke stereotypes and used a three-pronged approach of structural adjustment, fiscal and monetary policies to increase Japan's potential economic growth rate and overcome deflation. The first three years of the experiment were quite successful.</p><p>At the same time, the article also pointed out that \"Abenomics\" was bleak from 2016 to 2020. Under the impact of COVID-19 pandemic, some Abenomics goals have been achieved, especially inflation expectations, yen exchange rate, real interest rates and stock prices. However, the potential output growth in the same period is not good, which proves that structural reform is not being promoted effectively.</p><p>Zhang Jifeng, deputy director of the Japanese Institute of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, believes that Abe's achievements in economic governance are obvious to all, but there are also serious problems. One of the most serious problems is the difficult financial situation, which has never changed.</p><p>Liu Yun, an associate researcher at the Northeast Asia Institute of China Institute of Contemporary International Relations, believes that if we only look at Japan's GDP, there will be a misunderstanding that Abenomics is not very successful. But on the whole, the Japanese economy is an upward attitude. For example, wages in Japan have increased and profits of large enterprises have grown well, so the Japanese economic situation has improved.</p><p><b>\"Lost\" began in 1990</b></p><p>The original intention of \"Abenomics\" is to save Japan's persistently sluggish economy. The \"lost decade\" was first put forward when the Japanese stock market bubble burst in 1990.</p><p>More than ten years before the bursting of the bubble that devastated Japan, Japan was once a \"miracle-making country\".</p><p>From the early labor-intensive enterprises such as cotton textile, they began to accumulate capital, and then took manufacturing as the core industry, actively expanded investment, introduced foreign advanced technology, and quickly rebuilt the domestic industrial system from the ruins after the war.</p><p>By 1964, the Tokyo Olympic Games became an important symbol of Japan's economic development and transformation. Due to the demand for steel for large-scale infrastructure construction and the demand for color TVs at the opening of the Olympic Games, Japan's steel and electromechanical industries flourished, and Japan experienced a complete \"The development stage from exchanging shirts for planes\" to \"Made in Japan\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d0a4f35b86afc5382004806076b2487\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In 1965, Japan's steel exports to the United States accounted for half of the total imports of the United States. In 1968, Japan became the world's second largest economy after the United States.</p><p>At the same time, Japan has firmly grasped the new generation of industrial revolution. Automobiles, steel, telecommunications, semiconductors and pharmaceuticals have comprehensively dominated the US market, and Hitachi, NEC, Fujitsu, Mitsubishi and Toshiba have joined forces.</p><p>In the consecutive trade deficits of the United States with Japan that year, the industrial giants suffered losses year after year, and Intel was even on the verge of bankruptcy.</p><p>Under the dilemma of being beaten by Japanese goods, the United States launched a trade war that Chinese people now look familiar-</p><p>Since 1981, Japanese cars sold all over the world have been heavily taxed by the United States, and their export quotas have been restricted.</p><p>At the same time, the United States imposed 100% tariffs on Japanese high-tech products such as computers and televisions on the grounds of \"dumping behavior\" by Japan. Japanese semiconductors were set a lower export price limit, and Japanese chips were subject to 100% punitive tariffs.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2325f7d267568d30d4ad4c0f6022d74e\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"326\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>U.S. lawmakers smash Japanese products live</p><p>In addition, the executives of Japanese enterprises were arrested in the name of \"industrial espionage\". Japan was accused by the United States of being a \"currency manipulator\" and stealing intellectual property rights from the United States, and was asked to increase the import of American agricultural products, cancel the trade terms unfavorable to foreign companies, let Japan impose voluntary export restrictions in textiles, steel, television and machine tools, and at the same time carry out factory transfer and industrial upgrading...</p><p>While constantly accusing Japan of supporting industrial policies through the state, the United States introduced a new trade law in 1988, activating the \"Super 301\" clause-openly legislating to interfere with Japan's industrial and trade policies, forcing Japan to carry out institutional reforms.</p><p>In 1989, Japan and the United States began negotiations on the \"Japan-US Structural Agreement\", and negotiated on economic policies, systems and corporate behaviors, which prompted Japan to carry out open reforms in circulation system and business practices: for example, taking housing as a strategic industry and further opening up the circulation system; Further open up the domestic market and reorganize the import and export system in accordance with the principle of free trade.</p><p>By 1989, the U.S. Trade Representative had initiated a total of 24 Section 301 investigations against Japan, almost all of which were made concessions by the Japanese government.</p><p>At the same time, due to the \"Plaza Accord\" reached by the United States, Japan, the Federal Republic of Germany, France and the United Kingdom in 1985, the exchange rate of the yen against the US dollar was forced to appreciate sharply. After \"Black Monday\" in October 1987, the yen appreciated to 120 yen/dollar, with an increase of 90% in 1988.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12ab4dd9acfe04f8aab569cb046a73ff\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"337\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Plaza agreement signing site</p><p>The sharp appreciation of the yen has dealt a devastating blow to Japan, which is mainly an export-oriented economy. Production costs have risen sharply, and high-quality enterprises have begun to flee overseas. In order to cope with the exchange rate crisis, the Japanese government has begun to cut interest rates sharply, hoping to \"send money\" so that enterprises can invest and set up factories at low cost.</p><p>But in fact, due to the long industrial return cycle, a large amount of yen lent at low interest rate has not been invested in the real economy, and the abundant liquidity of the money market has begun to flow into the housing market, stock market and luxury goods market with the \"strength\" of the yen's sharp appreciation after the Plaza Accord.</p><p>Since 1986, Japan's rapidly expanding economic prosperity has been called the \"Heisei Boom\". At the end of 1985, the Nikkei 225 stock price index closed at 13,083 points and at the end of 1989, it closed at 38,916 points. In four years, the Nikkei 225 index rose by 197.45%, and the total market value of stocks continued to expand to 896 trillion yen, accounting for 60% of Japan's gross national product that year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f5d38582a2e3123322a61e5b005f13f\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"312\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Japanese streets in the 1980s</p><p>The land price in Tokyo is soaring, and the land price of the Tokyo Imperial Palace of the Japanese Emperor exceeds the land valuation of the whole France; A 10,000 yen note in the Ginza area is thrown on the ground, and you can't buy the small piece of land it covers.</p><p>At the same time, the Japanese have become the world's largest consumers of luxury goods. They have swept watch shops, jewelry stores and wine houses all over the world. Foreign banks and securities companies have counted their money in the Japanese market.</p><p>After a large number of short-selling options on stock indexes that completely deviate from economic reality, the bubble broke out when it expanded to the extreme.</p><p>In October 1990, Japan's five-year bull market ended, and the stock market plummeted by 63.24%, creating the largest decline in the history of the Japanese stock market. The following year, the property market plummeted by 65%, bankrupt enterprises emerged in an endless stream, the number of unemployed people surged, and the wealth of the whole country shrank by nearly 50%.</p><p>At the same time, the short-term sharp recession has caused countless ordinary people who have no time to get out to be \"stuck\" by various capital investment targets, and a major economic reshuffle has allowed the wealth of the whole society to be transferred to the hands of a few winners.</p><p>Since then, the Japanese economy has been in a downturn for a long time.</p><p>The Nikkei Average Index went from a historical high of 38,957 on December 29, 1989 to a low of 6,994.9 on October 29, 2008, with a cumulative decline of more than 82%. In the next four years, the Nikkei Average Index still hovered around 10,000 points.</p><p>That is to say, since the late 1990s, the \"lost decade\" of Japanese economy has been reported in newspapers, and the problem has not been solved so far.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ced67142e550e77f5f84c394cba59c8d\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"383\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>What exactly has Japan lost in 30 years?</b></p><p>In 2010, as the Japanese economy still did not improve, the media began to put forward the \"lost twenty years\" of the Japanese economy.</p><p>In fact, \"twenty years\" is still not the end of Japan's economic downturn. Counting from the highest closing point in the history of the Nikkei 225 Index at 38,957, it has been falling all the way since then, falling to less than 10,000 points many times during this period, and it did not stop falling until 2017.</p><p>At the close of trading on July 7, 2022, the Nikkei 225 Index closed at 26,490.53 points, still more than 10,000 points away from its highest point.</p><p>The \"Plaza Accord\", which caused the yen to appreciate sharply, is considered by many people to be the root cause of the Great Depression caused by Japan's bubble economy.</p><p>However, in the analysis of this Great Depression, the criticism of the Plaza Accord is not consistent. Former Deputy Minister of the Ministry of Finance of Japan, Toyo Tian, even personally refuted this view.</p><p>Because from 1985 to 1990, with overseas investment under the strong yen, Japan's overseas net assets rose from more than 1 trillion US dollars to more than 3 trillion US dollars, that is, the so-called \"there is another Japan besides Japan\"--</p><p>The 300% appreciation of the yen in 10 years is accompanied by a huge increase in production costs and labor costs. In order to maintain their competitiveness, a large number of Japanese companies have to look overseas, which makes Japanese companies' capital flow out rapidly.</p><p>The rapidly appreciating yen and the increasingly anxious Japan-US trade war have also boosted this outflow-the strong yen is convenient for Japanese companies to invest and acquire overseas companies, while building factories abroad can bypass the US sanctions on \"Made in Japan\".</p><p>From 1985 to 1990, Japanese companies carried out a total of 21 huge overseas mergers and acquisitions worth more than 50 billion yen.</p><p>In 1989, Rockefeller Center bought by Mitsubishi for $1.4 billion, Universal Pictures bought by Panasonic for $6 billion, and Columbia Pictures bought by Sony for $3.4 billion-including the copyright of Spider-Man that Marvel Comics has not been able to recover now;</p><p>The Japanese are even ambitious to buy the United States as \"Japan's forty-first county\". Why does the city look so like Tokyo from the 70th floor of the InterContinental Los Angeles Hotel?</p><p>Because the Japanese bought half of the real estate here back then.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6420f38680bf983f828177b00418e180\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Japanese scholar Ito Gan wrote in Anger Across the Pacific that some Japanese people believe that Japan will become the next \"superpower\" and the government will lead the people to \"end the American era\".</p><p>It's just that these real estates belong to giant enterprises, consortia, speculators and wealthy foreign businessmen, but they don't belong to the Japanese people alone.</p><p>In 2020, \"Sankei Shimbun\" reported that the revenue of Japanese overseas local legal persons has increased by 220% in the past 20 years. According to OECD statistics, Japan's per capita purchasing power level in 2020 is only US $39,000, an increase of only US $39,000 from 1990. 4%.</p><p><b>1. Thirty years of unmoved income</b></p><p>After 1900, Japan's investment activities came to an abrupt end.</p><p>Banks go bankrupt, factories go bankrupt, mortgage disasters, and banks full of non-performing assets have to merge and reorganize; The sharply rising production costs have caused a large number of enterprises to close down, and the worst thing is ordinary people-they have been laid off in the tide of bankruptcies, their lifelong savings have volatilized in the bubble crisis, and they have to bear heavy mortgages.</p><p>However, after the collapse of the lifelong employment system and the merit sequence, they worked overtime in order to keep their jobs. Although the \"social animal\" culture was not born in Japan's bubble crisis, it has been solidified since then-accepting competition and the supremacy of production efficiency. The squeezing of gears on themselves has become the most helpless choice for Japanese migrant workers.</p><p>However, the torrent of social development pushed the Japanese forward, but it failed to give them the due reward.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11648f82b27132391bb1a6cef2c3432a\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"296\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In February 2021, the \"Diligence Statistics Survey\" released by the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare of Japan showed that Japan's per capita monthly salary in 2020 was 318,299 yen, or about 19,600 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.2%, the largest decrease in 12 years.</p><p>This figure was about 350,000 yuan in 1990, when the average annual income of Japanese people was 4.25 million yen. Based on the exchange rate at that time, the monthly salary was about 11,600 yuan.</p><p>The average annual income of \"standing still\" for 30 consecutive years has become the most violent \"contraceptive pill\" in Japan.</p><p><b>2. Irreversible aging</b></p><p>In 2020, Japan's total population ranked 11th in the world, falling out of the top ten for the first time since 1950. From 1974 to 2020, Japan's birth rate dropped from 1.86% to 0.67%, and it began to fall into negative population growth for 13 consecutive years around 2008.</p><p>At the same time, Japan's elderly population aged 65 and above reached 36.4 million, accounting for 29.1% of the total population.</p><p>The declining birthrate and aging have caused Japan to fall into a serious shortage of labor supply and slow down in labor productivity growth, thus causing the economic growth to continue to slow down:</p><p>\"From 1961 to 2020, Japan's working-age population growth rate, labor productivity growth rate and economic trend basically changed synchronously. From 1961 to 1975, the average growth rate of Japan's working-age population remained at a high level of 1.6%, and the growth rate of labor productivity reached a peak of 8.4%. The average growth rate of real GDP also remained at a high level of 7.7%; From 1976 to 1988, the working-age population and labor productivity maintained a low growth rate of 0.9% and 3.7% respectively, and the real GDP growth rate also dropped to 4.4%; From 1989 to 2020, the growth rates of working-age population and labor productivity dropped sharply from 0.9% and 4.4% to-0.8% and 1.1% respectively, and the real GDP growth rate dropped from 5.4% to-4.4%. \"</p><p>With the decline of the labor force and the decrease of tax revenue, the expenses such as pensions that need to be spent are rapidly expanding. Since 1990, the number of people living on pensions has been five times that of taxpayers.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c92a0dfa8f71abcdb41b554124294a7\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"302\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In 2004, Japan launched the pension reform, increasing the tax revenue by 0.354% every year. By 2017, the pension paid by taxpayers had accounted for 18.3% of their annual income, which became a heavy burden for the Japanese people.</p><p>The ranking of Japan's Human Development Index (which measures per capita GDP, education, and medical care) dropped from the first place in the world in 1990 to the 19th place in the world in 2020.</p><p>At the same time, Japanese young people have a negative attitude towards life, low material desire and lack of motivation for struggle due to the decline in expected income, resulting in \"hikikomori\". According to the definition of the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare of Japan, hikikomori are people who stay at home for more than 6 months and almost cut off contact with the outside world. According to the data of the Survey on Living Conditions of the Cabinet Office of Japan, there are 541,000 hikikomori aged 15-39 and 40-64, respectively.</p><p>The consumption and house purchase demand of the elderly are far lower than those of young people, and young people seriously lack consumption desire, which makes it difficult to significantly increase total consumption. Japan has fallen into a \"low desire society\".</p><p><b>3. Lifelong QE, but always weak</b></p><p>In 2021, Japan's total GDP of 4,937.4 billion US dollars will fall from the \"5 prefix\", but it is still an economic power that stands out from Europe and ranks as the third largest economy in the world. It doesn't seem to be bad.</p><p>But in fact, Japan's GDP reached 5.55 trillion US dollars in 1995. At that time, the ratio of Japan's GDP to the GDP of the United States was 71.34%. In 2021, this ratio became 21.46%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0823be1f503a8cdff0d86e9ba57b90cf\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"231\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Compared with the glory of the past, today's Japan is indeed somewhat embarrassed.</p><p>At the same time, Japan's macro leverage ratio also leads the world. According to the latest data from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), at the end of the second quarter of 2021, the macro leverage ratios of various countries were 286.2% in the United States, 284.3% in the Eurozone, and 416.5% in Japan.</p><p>The huge debt scale comes from decades of Japanese quantitative easing.</p><p>Quantitative easing is a Japanese innovation in the field of finance.</p><p>In 1998, the Bank of Japan began to implement the policy of zero interest rate and quantitative easing for the first time, that is, to regulate economic activities by controlling the currency supply.</p><p>In 2013, Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda launched a monetary policy stimulus plan to boost inflation.</p><p>Since 2013, the yen has continued to depreciate against the US dollar, and exports have achieved a substantial increase; At the same time, the Japanese benchmark interest rate has been falling all the way, and the ten-year Treasury Bond interest rate even dropped to a negative number in 2016.</p><p>At the same time, the Bank of Japan began to purchase ETFs (exchange-traded funds) on a large scale, with an average annual ETF purchase scale close to 4 trillion yen. By 2021, the Bank of Japan's stocks will account for more than 80% of stock ETFs, accounting for more than 80% of the total market value of the Tokyo Stock Exchange.</p><p>Although the Nikkei 225 index has strengthened all the way from around 8,000 points in 2012, and even broke through the 30,000-point mark in February 2021, this still seems to be a mirror-like bubble boom because of the huge amount injected by the Bank of Japan. The base currency has neither raised inflation nor driven economic growth.</p><p>In terms of economic structure, except for core basic raw materials, Japan still maintains its barrier advantage, and almost all other industries are hesitating. The markets of automobiles, shipbuilding, machine tools, and electronics industries are all being divided up by the United States, China, South Korea and other countries, and there are few achievements in emerging industries.</p><p>At present, the number of Japanese unicorn companies is only 6, which lags far behind the 554, 180, 64, 43, and 26 in the United States, China, India, Britain, and Germany, and their valuations are all less than US $2 billion.</p><p>At the same time, Japan's debt has expanded rapidly. As of the end of December 2021, Japan's national debt, composed of Treasury Bond, borrowings and short-term government securities, reached 1,218.4 trillion yen, and the per capita debt of Japanese citizens was approximately 9.71 million yen, or approximately RMB 534573 yuan.</p><p>However, at a time when central banks in the United States, Britain, and Europe have begun to tighten their pace, the Bank of Japan has not changed its loose monetary policy.</p><p><b>\"Against the market\" easing, unlimited money printing, yen falling streak</b></p><p>The yen's losing streak began in March.</p><p>After the Federal Reserve's rate hike landed in March and released signals that it would increase rate hike and accelerate shrinking balance sheet in the future, both Britain and Europe began to accelerate the tightening of monetary policy, but the Bank of Japan did the opposite and insisted on maintaining quantitative easing policy.</p><p>On March 28th, the Bank of Japan issued a press release announcing that it would launch a \"continuous designated price market operation\" measure to curb the rise of interest rates from March 29th to 31st, that is, to purchase public bonds from private financial institutions in unlimited amounts at designated interest rates.</p><p>On the same day, the yen exchange rate plunged 1.38%.</p><p>On April 20th, less than a month later, the Bank of Japan announced an unlimited purchase of 10-year Treasury Bond to defend the 0.25% yield ceiling of 10-year Japanese Treasury Bond, which once again pushed the depreciation of the yen.</p><p>Some experts believe that since the depreciation of the yen is beneficial to Japan's export-oriented economy, the Bank of Japan has always regarded the loose monetary environment as an important means to boost market expectations, especially when it has just entered the new fiscal year, it is even more difficult for the Bank of Japan to tighten monetary policy.</p><p>But can easing save Japan's economy?</p><p>In fact, Japan's trade structure is unstable. Since the Abe government came to power and introduced the unlimited stimulus policy, the total export volume has declined continuously from 2012 to 2015, and only maintained a trade surplus in 2016 and 2017.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b2490580bd25519041d5aef1bb5c3c0\" tg-width=\"525\" tg-height=\"263\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Recently, global crude oil and raw material prices have soared, and the depreciation of the yen has raised the costs of Japanese companies and broadened the channels for imported inflation. At the same time, according to the \"Value-added Trade Statistics\" released by the OECD, the added value created in Japan has dropped from 94% in 1995 to 83% in 2018, a decrease of 11%. Japan's related high value-added products and services have It is increasingly difficult to offset its rising production costs.</p><p>The only beneficiary is Japanese local speculators. With the sharp landing of the Federal Reserve, U.S. bond yields continue to soar, and the spread between U.S. and Japanese Treasury Bond has become wider and wider, so local speculators have begun to short-sell Japanese yen on a large scale., borrowing yen to buy arbitrage of U.S. bonds.</p><p>What about ordinary people?</p><p>Rising prices have led to rising living costs and weakened consumption power, and the \"lost thirty years\" seems to be postponed again-the depreciation of the yen, which was recognized as \"beneficial to the economy\" by the Bank of Japan, has never effectively boosted Japan's economic growth for many years, but has prevented the Japanese economy from escaping from the large-scale financial easing policy for more than ten years.</p><p>Thirty years ago, then central bank governor Mie Yasu warned the government that a country must not survive by blowing economic bubbles, otherwise it will be a great harm to the country.</p><p>So shortly after he took office, Japan implemented a tightening monetary policy, greatly raised the loan interest rate and actively punctured the bubble. This hard landing plunged Japan into decades of depression, but it was often regarded by later generations as the decisive decision of \"a strong man breaking his wrist\".</p><p>It's just that the car in front has been overturned, and the car in front is unknown.</p><p>Thirty years later, Japan seems to be still the same Japan.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1639703443321","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Behind Abe's assassination, how did the Japanese economy \"lose\" for three decades?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBehind Abe's assassination, how did the Japanese economy \"lose\" for three decades?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">风暴眼工作室</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-07-08 17:24</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On July 8th, the news that former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was shot shocked the whole world.</p><p>According to CCTV reports, on the 8th local time, former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was shot when he delivered a speech in Nara that morning. It is reported that Shinzo Abe was still conscious when he got on the ambulance. At present, Shinzo Abe has no vital signs.</p><p>The yen exchange rate was also affected. As of 11:30 on July 8, the decline of the US dollar against the yen expanded to 0.47% to 135.37, and the yen appreciated.</p><p>Why did the yen suddenly appreciate after Abe's assassination? Perhaps it has something to do with the \"Abenomics\" promoted during his term of office. After Shinzo Abe took office at the end of 2012, he accelerated the implementation of a series of economic stimulus policies, the most notable of which was the loose monetary policy, and the yen exchange rate began to depreciate at an accelerated pace.</p><p>Since the beginning of this year, the yen exchange rate has continued to fall more obviously. On June 13th, the exchange rate of the Japanese yen against the US dollar once fell below the 135 yen to 1 US dollar mark, setting a new low in about 24 years. In more than a year since the beginning of 2021, the yen has depreciated significantly by more than 25% relative to the US dollar.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73ac608c7438fa9083c60e6af1c6dfd9\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"330\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>As a traditional safe-haven currency, it continued to plummet, causing Japanese bonds and yen assets to begin to be sold off sharply.</p><p>While Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda reiterated his view that the Bank of Japan must maintain its massive stimulus plan to shore up the fragile economic recovery.</p><p>But for ordinary Japanese, it is still debatable whether the fragile economic recovery needs to be supported by the sharp depreciation of the yen. After all, as a big importer, Japan's energy dependence on foreign countries is as high as 88%, and its food self-sufficiency rate is only 37%. The rise in commodity prices brought about by the depreciation of the yen will directly affect citizens' lives.</p><p>Especially after so many years of substantial easing, since the Japanese economy collapsed in 1990, Japan's average annual GDP growth rate has been less than 1%.</p><p>The real estate has been widened, the price has been widened, but the disposable income of residents has not been widened, and people somewhat lack confidence. After experiencing the \"lost decade\", \"lost twenty years\" and \"lost thirty years\", Japan's lost eyes are going to the time dimension of Atlantis.</p><p>In the fourth decade, will Japan be able to make a comeback?</p><p><b>Abe and his \"Abenomics\"</b></p><p>Although Shinzo Abe resigned as prime minister in August 2020, the sharp depreciation of the yen is closely related to his \"Abenomics\".</p><p>At the end of 2012, Shinzo Abe once again served as the Prime Minister of Japan, and immediately threw out the route of \"fighting for the economy\", which was heated as \"Abenomics\" by the media.</p><p>The so-called \"Abenomics\" is a policy combination to solve Japan's economic problems through experimental monetary policy (QQE for short), proactive fiscal policy and economic structural reform. Including \"three major strategies\":</p><p>First, it proposed the largest quantitative easing (QE) monetary policy in Japanese history, and the central bank purchased 7.5 trillion yen of Treasury Bond every month;</p><p>Second, break through the expansionary fiscal policy of the previous government with a total budget of 70 trillion yen;</p><p>Third, a package of growth strategies including the Trans-Pacific Strategic Economic Partnership Agreement (TPP), deregulation to arouse private investment and promote innovation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79ef0cf1ad82f6f4d2dbd2d9e5cde013\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Abenomics is the latest effort to solve Japan's economic downturn since 1990s. So how effective is the implementation?</p><p>An analysis article of global macro speculation pointed out that Abenomics is a great economic experiment. Japanese financiers and politicians broke stereotypes and used a three-pronged approach of structural adjustment, fiscal and monetary policies to increase Japan's potential economic growth rate and overcome deflation. The first three years of the experiment were quite successful.</p><p>At the same time, the article also pointed out that \"Abenomics\" was bleak from 2016 to 2020. Under the impact of COVID-19 pandemic, some Abenomics goals have been achieved, especially inflation expectations, yen exchange rate, real interest rates and stock prices. However, the potential output growth in the same period is not good, which proves that structural reform is not being promoted effectively.</p><p>Zhang Jifeng, deputy director of the Japanese Institute of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, believes that Abe's achievements in economic governance are obvious to all, but there are also serious problems. One of the most serious problems is the difficult financial situation, which has never changed.</p><p>Liu Yun, an associate researcher at the Northeast Asia Institute of China Institute of Contemporary International Relations, believes that if we only look at Japan's GDP, there will be a misunderstanding that Abenomics is not very successful. But on the whole, the Japanese economy is an upward attitude. For example, wages in Japan have increased and profits of large enterprises have grown well, so the Japanese economic situation has improved.</p><p><b>\"Lost\" began in 1990</b></p><p>The original intention of \"Abenomics\" is to save Japan's persistently sluggish economy. The \"lost decade\" was first put forward when the Japanese stock market bubble burst in 1990.</p><p>More than ten years before the bursting of the bubble that devastated Japan, Japan was once a \"miracle-making country\".</p><p>From the early labor-intensive enterprises such as cotton textile, they began to accumulate capital, and then took manufacturing as the core industry, actively expanded investment, introduced foreign advanced technology, and quickly rebuilt the domestic industrial system from the ruins after the war.</p><p>By 1964, the Tokyo Olympic Games became an important symbol of Japan's economic development and transformation. Due to the demand for steel for large-scale infrastructure construction and the demand for color TVs at the opening of the Olympic Games, Japan's steel and electromechanical industries flourished, and Japan experienced a complete \"The development stage from exchanging shirts for planes\" to \"Made in Japan\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d0a4f35b86afc5382004806076b2487\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In 1965, Japan's steel exports to the United States accounted for half of the total imports of the United States. In 1968, Japan became the world's second largest economy after the United States.</p><p>At the same time, Japan has firmly grasped the new generation of industrial revolution. Automobiles, steel, telecommunications, semiconductors and pharmaceuticals have comprehensively dominated the US market, and Hitachi, NEC, Fujitsu, Mitsubishi and Toshiba have joined forces.</p><p>In the consecutive trade deficits of the United States with Japan that year, the industrial giants suffered losses year after year, and Intel was even on the verge of bankruptcy.</p><p>Under the dilemma of being beaten by Japanese goods, the United States launched a trade war that Chinese people now look familiar-</p><p>Since 1981, Japanese cars sold all over the world have been heavily taxed by the United States, and their export quotas have been restricted.</p><p>At the same time, the United States imposed 100% tariffs on Japanese high-tech products such as computers and televisions on the grounds of \"dumping behavior\" by Japan. Japanese semiconductors were set a lower export price limit, and Japanese chips were subject to 100% punitive tariffs.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2325f7d267568d30d4ad4c0f6022d74e\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"326\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>U.S. lawmakers smash Japanese products live</p><p>In addition, the executives of Japanese enterprises were arrested in the name of \"industrial espionage\". Japan was accused by the United States of being a \"currency manipulator\" and stealing intellectual property rights from the United States, and was asked to increase the import of American agricultural products, cancel the trade terms unfavorable to foreign companies, let Japan impose voluntary export restrictions in textiles, steel, television and machine tools, and at the same time carry out factory transfer and industrial upgrading...</p><p>While constantly accusing Japan of supporting industrial policies through the state, the United States introduced a new trade law in 1988, activating the \"Super 301\" clause-openly legislating to interfere with Japan's industrial and trade policies, forcing Japan to carry out institutional reforms.</p><p>In 1989, Japan and the United States began negotiations on the \"Japan-US Structural Agreement\", and negotiated on economic policies, systems and corporate behaviors, which prompted Japan to carry out open reforms in circulation system and business practices: for example, taking housing as a strategic industry and further opening up the circulation system; Further open up the domestic market and reorganize the import and export system in accordance with the principle of free trade.</p><p>By 1989, the U.S. Trade Representative had initiated a total of 24 Section 301 investigations against Japan, almost all of which were made concessions by the Japanese government.</p><p>At the same time, due to the \"Plaza Accord\" reached by the United States, Japan, the Federal Republic of Germany, France and the United Kingdom in 1985, the exchange rate of the yen against the US dollar was forced to appreciate sharply. After \"Black Monday\" in October 1987, the yen appreciated to 120 yen/dollar, with an increase of 90% in 1988.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12ab4dd9acfe04f8aab569cb046a73ff\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"337\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Plaza agreement signing site</p><p>The sharp appreciation of the yen has dealt a devastating blow to Japan, which is mainly an export-oriented economy. Production costs have risen sharply, and high-quality enterprises have begun to flee overseas. In order to cope with the exchange rate crisis, the Japanese government has begun to cut interest rates sharply, hoping to \"send money\" so that enterprises can invest and set up factories at low cost.</p><p>But in fact, due to the long industrial return cycle, a large amount of yen lent at low interest rate has not been invested in the real economy, and the abundant liquidity of the money market has begun to flow into the housing market, stock market and luxury goods market with the \"strength\" of the yen's sharp appreciation after the Plaza Accord.</p><p>Since 1986, Japan's rapidly expanding economic prosperity has been called the \"Heisei Boom\". At the end of 1985, the Nikkei 225 stock price index closed at 13,083 points and at the end of 1989, it closed at 38,916 points. In four years, the Nikkei 225 index rose by 197.45%, and the total market value of stocks continued to expand to 896 trillion yen, accounting for 60% of Japan's gross national product that year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f5d38582a2e3123322a61e5b005f13f\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"312\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Japanese streets in the 1980s</p><p>The land price in Tokyo is soaring, and the land price of the Tokyo Imperial Palace of the Japanese Emperor exceeds the land valuation of the whole France; A 10,000 yen note in the Ginza area is thrown on the ground, and you can't buy the small piece of land it covers.</p><p>At the same time, the Japanese have become the world's largest consumers of luxury goods. They have swept watch shops, jewelry stores and wine houses all over the world. Foreign banks and securities companies have counted their money in the Japanese market.</p><p>After a large number of short-selling options on stock indexes that completely deviate from economic reality, the bubble broke out when it expanded to the extreme.</p><p>In October 1990, Japan's five-year bull market ended, and the stock market plummeted by 63.24%, creating the largest decline in the history of the Japanese stock market. The following year, the property market plummeted by 65%, bankrupt enterprises emerged in an endless stream, the number of unemployed people surged, and the wealth of the whole country shrank by nearly 50%.</p><p>At the same time, the short-term sharp recession has caused countless ordinary people who have no time to get out to be \"stuck\" by various capital investment targets, and a major economic reshuffle has allowed the wealth of the whole society to be transferred to the hands of a few winners.</p><p>Since then, the Japanese economy has been in a downturn for a long time.</p><p>The Nikkei Average Index went from a historical high of 38,957 on December 29, 1989 to a low of 6,994.9 on October 29, 2008, with a cumulative decline of more than 82%. In the next four years, the Nikkei Average Index still hovered around 10,000 points.</p><p>That is to say, since the late 1990s, the \"lost decade\" of Japanese economy has been reported in newspapers, and the problem has not been solved so far.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ced67142e550e77f5f84c394cba59c8d\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"383\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>What exactly has Japan lost in 30 years?</b></p><p>In 2010, as the Japanese economy still did not improve, the media began to put forward the \"lost twenty years\" of the Japanese economy.</p><p>In fact, \"twenty years\" is still not the end of Japan's economic downturn. Counting from the highest closing point in the history of the Nikkei 225 Index at 38,957, it has been falling all the way since then, falling to less than 10,000 points many times during this period, and it did not stop falling until 2017.</p><p>At the close of trading on July 7, 2022, the Nikkei 225 Index closed at 26,490.53 points, still more than 10,000 points away from its highest point.</p><p>The \"Plaza Accord\", which caused the yen to appreciate sharply, is considered by many people to be the root cause of the Great Depression caused by Japan's bubble economy.</p><p>However, in the analysis of this Great Depression, the criticism of the Plaza Accord is not consistent. Former Deputy Minister of the Ministry of Finance of Japan, Toyo Tian, even personally refuted this view.</p><p>Because from 1985 to 1990, with overseas investment under the strong yen, Japan's overseas net assets rose from more than 1 trillion US dollars to more than 3 trillion US dollars, that is, the so-called \"there is another Japan besides Japan\"--</p><p>The 300% appreciation of the yen in 10 years is accompanied by a huge increase in production costs and labor costs. In order to maintain their competitiveness, a large number of Japanese companies have to look overseas, which makes Japanese companies' capital flow out rapidly.</p><p>The rapidly appreciating yen and the increasingly anxious Japan-US trade war have also boosted this outflow-the strong yen is convenient for Japanese companies to invest and acquire overseas companies, while building factories abroad can bypass the US sanctions on \"Made in Japan\".</p><p>From 1985 to 1990, Japanese companies carried out a total of 21 huge overseas mergers and acquisitions worth more than 50 billion yen.</p><p>In 1989, Rockefeller Center bought by Mitsubishi for $1.4 billion, Universal Pictures bought by Panasonic for $6 billion, and Columbia Pictures bought by Sony for $3.4 billion-including the copyright of Spider-Man that Marvel Comics has not been able to recover now;</p><p>The Japanese are even ambitious to buy the United States as \"Japan's forty-first county\". Why does the city look so like Tokyo from the 70th floor of the InterContinental Los Angeles Hotel?</p><p>Because the Japanese bought half of the real estate here back then.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6420f38680bf983f828177b00418e180\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Japanese scholar Ito Gan wrote in Anger Across the Pacific that some Japanese people believe that Japan will become the next \"superpower\" and the government will lead the people to \"end the American era\".</p><p>It's just that these real estates belong to giant enterprises, consortia, speculators and wealthy foreign businessmen, but they don't belong to the Japanese people alone.</p><p>In 2020, \"Sankei Shimbun\" reported that the revenue of Japanese overseas local legal persons has increased by 220% in the past 20 years. According to OECD statistics, Japan's per capita purchasing power level in 2020 is only US $39,000, an increase of only US $39,000 from 1990. 4%.</p><p><b>1. Thirty years of unmoved income</b></p><p>After 1900, Japan's investment activities came to an abrupt end.</p><p>Banks go bankrupt, factories go bankrupt, mortgage disasters, and banks full of non-performing assets have to merge and reorganize; The sharply rising production costs have caused a large number of enterprises to close down, and the worst thing is ordinary people-they have been laid off in the tide of bankruptcies, their lifelong savings have volatilized in the bubble crisis, and they have to bear heavy mortgages.</p><p>However, after the collapse of the lifelong employment system and the merit sequence, they worked overtime in order to keep their jobs. Although the \"social animal\" culture was not born in Japan's bubble crisis, it has been solidified since then-accepting competition and the supremacy of production efficiency. The squeezing of gears on themselves has become the most helpless choice for Japanese migrant workers.</p><p>However, the torrent of social development pushed the Japanese forward, but it failed to give them the due reward.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11648f82b27132391bb1a6cef2c3432a\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"296\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In February 2021, the \"Diligence Statistics Survey\" released by the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare of Japan showed that Japan's per capita monthly salary in 2020 was 318,299 yen, or about 19,600 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.2%, the largest decrease in 12 years.</p><p>This figure was about 350,000 yuan in 1990, when the average annual income of Japanese people was 4.25 million yen. Based on the exchange rate at that time, the monthly salary was about 11,600 yuan.</p><p>The average annual income of \"standing still\" for 30 consecutive years has become the most violent \"contraceptive pill\" in Japan.</p><p><b>2. Irreversible aging</b></p><p>In 2020, Japan's total population ranked 11th in the world, falling out of the top ten for the first time since 1950. From 1974 to 2020, Japan's birth rate dropped from 1.86% to 0.67%, and it began to fall into negative population growth for 13 consecutive years around 2008.</p><p>At the same time, Japan's elderly population aged 65 and above reached 36.4 million, accounting for 29.1% of the total population.</p><p>The declining birthrate and aging have caused Japan to fall into a serious shortage of labor supply and slow down in labor productivity growth, thus causing the economic growth to continue to slow down:</p><p>\"From 1961 to 2020, Japan's working-age population growth rate, labor productivity growth rate and economic trend basically changed synchronously. From 1961 to 1975, the average growth rate of Japan's working-age population remained at a high level of 1.6%, and the growth rate of labor productivity reached a peak of 8.4%. The average growth rate of real GDP also remained at a high level of 7.7%; From 1976 to 1988, the working-age population and labor productivity maintained a low growth rate of 0.9% and 3.7% respectively, and the real GDP growth rate also dropped to 4.4%; From 1989 to 2020, the growth rates of working-age population and labor productivity dropped sharply from 0.9% and 4.4% to-0.8% and 1.1% respectively, and the real GDP growth rate dropped from 5.4% to-4.4%. \"</p><p>With the decline of the labor force and the decrease of tax revenue, the expenses such as pensions that need to be spent are rapidly expanding. Since 1990, the number of people living on pensions has been five times that of taxpayers.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c92a0dfa8f71abcdb41b554124294a7\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"302\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In 2004, Japan launched the pension reform, increasing the tax revenue by 0.354% every year. By 2017, the pension paid by taxpayers had accounted for 18.3% of their annual income, which became a heavy burden for the Japanese people.</p><p>The ranking of Japan's Human Development Index (which measures per capita GDP, education, and medical care) dropped from the first place in the world in 1990 to the 19th place in the world in 2020.</p><p>At the same time, Japanese young people have a negative attitude towards life, low material desire and lack of motivation for struggle due to the decline in expected income, resulting in \"hikikomori\". According to the definition of the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare of Japan, hikikomori are people who stay at home for more than 6 months and almost cut off contact with the outside world. According to the data of the Survey on Living Conditions of the Cabinet Office of Japan, there are 541,000 hikikomori aged 15-39 and 40-64, respectively.</p><p>The consumption and house purchase demand of the elderly are far lower than those of young people, and young people seriously lack consumption desire, which makes it difficult to significantly increase total consumption. Japan has fallen into a \"low desire society\".</p><p><b>3. Lifelong QE, but always weak</b></p><p>In 2021, Japan's total GDP of 4,937.4 billion US dollars will fall from the \"5 prefix\", but it is still an economic power that stands out from Europe and ranks as the third largest economy in the world. It doesn't seem to be bad.</p><p>But in fact, Japan's GDP reached 5.55 trillion US dollars in 1995. At that time, the ratio of Japan's GDP to the GDP of the United States was 71.34%. In 2021, this ratio became 21.46%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0823be1f503a8cdff0d86e9ba57b90cf\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"231\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Compared with the glory of the past, today's Japan is indeed somewhat embarrassed.</p><p>At the same time, Japan's macro leverage ratio also leads the world. According to the latest data from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), at the end of the second quarter of 2021, the macro leverage ratios of various countries were 286.2% in the United States, 284.3% in the Eurozone, and 416.5% in Japan.</p><p>The huge debt scale comes from decades of Japanese quantitative easing.</p><p>Quantitative easing is a Japanese innovation in the field of finance.</p><p>In 1998, the Bank of Japan began to implement the policy of zero interest rate and quantitative easing for the first time, that is, to regulate economic activities by controlling the currency supply.</p><p>In 2013, Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda launched a monetary policy stimulus plan to boost inflation.</p><p>Since 2013, the yen has continued to depreciate against the US dollar, and exports have achieved a substantial increase; At the same time, the Japanese benchmark interest rate has been falling all the way, and the ten-year Treasury Bond interest rate even dropped to a negative number in 2016.</p><p>At the same time, the Bank of Japan began to purchase ETFs (exchange-traded funds) on a large scale, with an average annual ETF purchase scale close to 4 trillion yen. By 2021, the Bank of Japan's stocks will account for more than 80% of stock ETFs, accounting for more than 80% of the total market value of the Tokyo Stock Exchange.</p><p>Although the Nikkei 225 index has strengthened all the way from around 8,000 points in 2012, and even broke through the 30,000-point mark in February 2021, this still seems to be a mirror-like bubble boom because of the huge amount injected by the Bank of Japan. The base currency has neither raised inflation nor driven economic growth.</p><p>In terms of economic structure, except for core basic raw materials, Japan still maintains its barrier advantage, and almost all other industries are hesitating. The markets of automobiles, shipbuilding, machine tools, and electronics industries are all being divided up by the United States, China, South Korea and other countries, and there are few achievements in emerging industries.</p><p>At present, the number of Japanese unicorn companies is only 6, which lags far behind the 554, 180, 64, 43, and 26 in the United States, China, India, Britain, and Germany, and their valuations are all less than US $2 billion.</p><p>At the same time, Japan's debt has expanded rapidly. As of the end of December 2021, Japan's national debt, composed of Treasury Bond, borrowings and short-term government securities, reached 1,218.4 trillion yen, and the per capita debt of Japanese citizens was approximately 9.71 million yen, or approximately RMB 534573 yuan.</p><p>However, at a time when central banks in the United States, Britain, and Europe have begun to tighten their pace, the Bank of Japan has not changed its loose monetary policy.</p><p><b>\"Against the market\" easing, unlimited money printing, yen falling streak</b></p><p>The yen's losing streak began in March.</p><p>After the Federal Reserve's rate hike landed in March and released signals that it would increase rate hike and accelerate shrinking balance sheet in the future, both Britain and Europe began to accelerate the tightening of monetary policy, but the Bank of Japan did the opposite and insisted on maintaining quantitative easing policy.</p><p>On March 28th, the Bank of Japan issued a press release announcing that it would launch a \"continuous designated price market operation\" measure to curb the rise of interest rates from March 29th to 31st, that is, to purchase public bonds from private financial institutions in unlimited amounts at designated interest rates.</p><p>On the same day, the yen exchange rate plunged 1.38%.</p><p>On April 20th, less than a month later, the Bank of Japan announced an unlimited purchase of 10-year Treasury Bond to defend the 0.25% yield ceiling of 10-year Japanese Treasury Bond, which once again pushed the depreciation of the yen.</p><p>Some experts believe that since the depreciation of the yen is beneficial to Japan's export-oriented economy, the Bank of Japan has always regarded the loose monetary environment as an important means to boost market expectations, especially when it has just entered the new fiscal year, it is even more difficult for the Bank of Japan to tighten monetary policy.</p><p>But can easing save Japan's economy?</p><p>In fact, Japan's trade structure is unstable. Since the Abe government came to power and introduced the unlimited stimulus policy, the total export volume has declined continuously from 2012 to 2015, and only maintained a trade surplus in 2016 and 2017.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b2490580bd25519041d5aef1bb5c3c0\" tg-width=\"525\" tg-height=\"263\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Recently, global crude oil and raw material prices have soared, and the depreciation of the yen has raised the costs of Japanese companies and broadened the channels for imported inflation. At the same time, according to the \"Value-added Trade Statistics\" released by the OECD, the added value created in Japan has dropped from 94% in 1995 to 83% in 2018, a decrease of 11%. Japan's related high value-added products and services have It is increasingly difficult to offset its rising production costs.</p><p>The only beneficiary is Japanese local speculators. With the sharp landing of the Federal Reserve, U.S. bond yields continue to soar, and the spread between U.S. and Japanese Treasury Bond has become wider and wider, so local speculators have begun to short-sell Japanese yen on a large scale., borrowing yen to buy arbitrage of U.S. bonds.</p><p>What about ordinary people?</p><p>Rising prices have led to rising living costs and weakened consumption power, and the \"lost thirty years\" seems to be postponed again-the depreciation of the yen, which was recognized as \"beneficial to the economy\" by the Bank of Japan, has never effectively boosted Japan's economic growth for many years, but has prevented the Japanese economy from escaping from the large-scale financial easing policy for more than ten years.</p><p>Thirty years ago, then central bank governor Mie Yasu warned the government that a country must not survive by blowing economic bubbles, otherwise it will be a great harm to the country.</p><p>So shortly after he took office, Japan implemented a tightening monetary policy, greatly raised the loan interest rate and actively punctured the bubble. This hard landing plunged Japan into decades of depression, but it was often regarded by later generations as the decisive decision of \"a strong man breaking his wrist\".</p><p>It's just that the car in front has been overturned, and the car in front is unknown.</p><p>Thirty years later, Japan seems to be still the same Japan.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/vyE5FKltsfEpcN7v5P6r4w\">风暴眼工作室</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab6491f7a764c5c5f68017952b8c2931","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/vyE5FKltsfEpcN7v5P6r4w","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1172335974","content_text":"7月8日，日本前首相安倍晋三遭遇枪击的消息震惊全世界。据央视报道，当地时间8日，日本前首相安倍晋三当天上午在奈良发表演讲时中枪 。据悉，安倍晋三在上救护车时还有意识，目前安倍晋三已经没有生命体征。日元汇率也受到了影响，截至7月8日11：30，美元兑日元跌幅扩大至0.47%，报135.37，日元有所升值。安倍遇刺，日元为何会突然升值？或许与其任期内力主推动的“安倍经济学”有关。安倍晋三2012年底上台后加速实施的一系列刺激经济政策，最值得注目的就是宽松货币政策，日元汇率开始加速贬值。今年以来，日元汇率持续下跌态势更加明显。6月13日，日元兑美元汇率一度跌破135日元兑换1美元关口，创下约24年的新低。而从2021年初至今的一年多时间内，日元相对美元已经大幅贬值超过25%。作为传统避险货币持续大跌，让日债和日元资产开始被大幅抛售。虽然日本央行行长黑田东彦重申了他的观点，即日本央行必须维持其大规模刺激计划，以支撑脆弱的经济复苏。但对于普通日本人，脆弱的经济复苏是否需要用日元的大幅贬值来支撑还是值得商榷，毕竟日本作为一个进口大国，能源对外依存度高达88%，粮食自给率仅有37%。日元贬值带来的大宗商品价格抬升，将直接影响市民的生活。尤其是大幅宽松了这么多年，可从1990年日本经济崩溃以来，日本平均年GDP增长率不足1%。宽高了房产、宽起了物价，独独没有宽起来居民的可支配收入，人们多少缺乏点信心。在已经经历了“失落的十年”、\"失落的二十年\"、“失落的三十年”之后，日本的失落眼看着要奔向亚特兰蒂斯的那个时间维度去了。第四个十年，日本又是否能绝地翻盘呢？安倍和他的“安倍经济学”虽然安倍晋三在2020年8月就已经辞任首相，但日元如今的大幅贬值却和他的“安倍经济学”联系紧密。2012年底，安倍晋三再次担任日本首相，随即抛出“拼经济”路线，被媒体热炒为“安倍经济学”。所谓“安倍经济学”，是通过实验性质的货币政策(简称QQE)、积极财政政策和经济结构改革来解决日本经济问题的政策组合。包括“三大策略”：其一，提出日本史上最大规模的量化宽松（QE）货币政策，央行每月购买国债7.5万亿日元；其二，突破前任政府预算总额70万亿日元的扩张性财政政策；其三，囊括《跨太平洋战略经济伙伴协定》（TPP）、放松管制以唤起民间投资和促进创新等在内的一揽子增长战略。安倍经济学是为了解决1990年代以后日本经济不断低迷而做出的最新努力。那么实施效果如何呢？全球宏观投机的一篇分析文章指出，安倍经济学是一个伟大的经济实验，日本金融家和政治家打破成见，用结构调整、财政和货币政策三管齐下的方法提升日本潜在经济增长率，克服通货紧缩。实验的前三年，获得了相当成功。文章同时也指出，“安倍经济学”2016到2020年则表现暗淡。新冠疫情冲击下部分安倍经济学的目标得以实现，尤其是通胀预期、日元汇率、真实利率和股票价格等，但是同期的潜在产出成长并不佳，证明了结构改革推进不力。中国社会科学院日本研究所副所长张季风认为，安倍在经济治理上的成绩大家有目共睹，但是也有较为严重的问题。其中最严重的问题就是财政状况困难，这个局面始终没有得到改变。中国现代国际关系研究院东北亚研究所副研究员刘云认为，若仅从日本GDP来看，会有所误解，认为安倍经济学不太成功。但如果从整体上看，日本经济是一个向上的姿态，例如日本的工资有增加、大企业利润增速不错，所以日本经济形势是有所好转的。“失落”始于1990“安倍经济学”的初衷是为了挽救日本持续低迷的经济。而“失落的十年”最早被提出，则是1990年日本股市泡沫破灭。在这场让日本一蹶不振的泡沫大破灭之前的十数年，日本曾是“缔造奇迹的国家”。从早期的棉纺织等劳动密集型企业开始积累资本，再到后来以制造业为核心产业，积极扩大投资、引进国外先进技术，从战后的废墟里迅速重建起本国的工业体系。到1964年，东京奥运会更是成为衔接日本经济发展转型的重要标志，由于大规模基建对钢铁的需求以及奥运会开幕对彩电的需求，日本的钢铁、机电行业蓬勃发展，日本经历了一个完整的“用衬衫换飞机”到“日本制造”的发展阶段。1965年，日本输出美国的钢铁占到了美国进口总量一半，1968年，日本成为了仅次美国的世界第二大经济体。与此同时，日本牢牢抓住了新一代的产业革命，汽车、钢铁、电信、半导体、制药全面制霸美国市场，日立、NEC、富士通、三菱和东芝群雄并起。而美国在当年对日的连年贸易赤字中，产业巨头们一片连年亏损，英特尔甚至一度濒临倒闭。在被日货打得找不着北的窘境之下，美国不顾脸面地发起了一场国人如今看起来很眼熟的贸易战——从1981年开始，行销全球的日系汽车开始被美国课以重税，并且在出口额度上被加以限制。同时，美国以日方“存在倾销行为”为由对日本的电脑、电视等高科技产品征收100%的关税，日本的半导体被设置出口价格下限、日本的芯片被征收100%惩罚性关税。美国议员直播砸碎日本产品此外，日系企业的高管被以“产业间谍罪”为名拘捕，日本被美国指责为“汇率操纵国”、从美国窃取知识产权，并被要求加大对美国农产品的进口力度、取消对外企不利的贸易条款、让日本在纺织品、钢铁、电视和机床等行业都实行自愿出口限制，同时进行工厂转移和产业升级……在不断指责日本通过国家扶持产业政策的同时，美国却在1988年出台新的贸易法，启用“超级301”条款——公然立法干预日本的产业与贸易政策，迫使日本进行制度性改革。1989年日美开始“日美结构协议”谈判，就经济政策、制度及企业行为等进行磋商，促使日本在流通体制、商业惯例等方面进行开放性改革：例如把住房作为战略性产业，进一步开放流通体制；进一步开放国内市场，按照自由贸易的原则重组进出口体制。截至1989年，美国贸易代表总计向日本发起了24例301条款案件调查，几乎全部由日本政府做出了让步。同时，由于1985年美国、日本、联邦德国、法国和英国达成的“广场协议”，日元兑美元汇率被迫大幅升值。1987年10月的“黑色星期一”之后，日元升值到120日元/美元，1988年度升幅高达90%。广场协议签订现场大幅升值的日元对以出口型经济为主的日本造成了毁灭性的打击，生产成本急剧上涨、优质企业开始逃向海外，为了应对汇率危机，日本政府开始大幅降息，寄希望于“发钱”让企业可以低成本去投资办厂。可实际上，由于实业回报周期过长，低利率贷出大量的日元并没有被投入到到实体经济，货币市场的充裕流动性，随着日元在广场协议后大幅升值的“强势”开始大量流入房市、股市以及奢侈品市场。1986 年开始，日本飞速膨胀的经济繁荣被称为“平成景气”，1985年末日经225股价指数收于13083点， 1989年末收于38916点，四年间日经225指数累计上涨197.45%，并且股票总市值继续膨胀至896万亿日元，占日本当年国民生产总值的60%。80年代的日本街头东京的地价则是坐地飞升，日本天皇的东京皇居土地价格就超过了整个法国的土地估价；银座地区一张1万日元的纸币扔在地上，也买不到它所覆盖的那一小片土地。同时，日本人成了全球最大的奢侈品消费国，他们横扫全球的手表店、珠宝店以及红酒酒庄，外资银行与证券公司在日本市场数钱数到手软。与经济现实完全背离的大批股指沽空期权之后，是泡沫膨胀到极致时爆发。1990年10月，日本长达5年的牛市结束，股市暴跌63.24%，创造了日本股市历史上最大的下跌幅度。次年，楼市暴跌65%，破产企业层出不穷，失业人群人数激增，整个国家财富缩水了近50%。同时，短期的大幅衰退让无数来不及抽身的普通人被各项资本投资标的物“套牢”，一场经济大洗牌让全社会的财富被转移至少数赢家手中。此后，日本经济开始长期处于低迷状态。日经平均指数由1989年12月29日历史高位38957，到2008年10月29日最低6994.9，累积跌幅逾82%，其后4年日经平均指数仍然始终徘徊在10,000点左右。也就是从90年代末开始，日本经济“失去的十年””开始不断见诸报端，并至今难题未解。三十年里，日本具体失去了什么？2010年，由于日本经济仍无起色，媒体开始提出日本经济“失去的二十年”。实际上，“二十年”依旧不是日本经济颓靡的终点。自38957的日经225指数历史最高收盘点位开始算起，此后一路下行，期间多次跌至1万点一下，直至2017年才止跌。2022年7月7日收盘，日经225指数收盘报26490.53点，距其最高点仍有一万多点的差距。那个让日元急剧升值的“广场协议”，被许多人认为是日本泡沫经济引发大萧条的根源。但对于这次大萧条的分析中，对于广场协议的批判并不是一致的。原日本大藏省副相行天丰雄甚至亲自出面驳斥过这一观点。因为在1985年~1990年，借强势日元下的海外投资，日本海外净资产从1万多亿美元上升到3万多亿美元，也就是所谓的“日本之外，还有一个日本”——日元10年升值300%的同时，是生产成本与人力成本的巨幅抬升。为了保持自己的竞争力，大量日企不得不将目光投向海外，这使得日企资本急速外流。升值迅速的日元与日渐焦灼的日美贸易战也助推了这一外流——强势的日元方便日企投资收购海外企业，同时在外建厂可以绕开美国对“日本制造”的制裁。从1985年到1990年，日本企业总共进行了21起500亿日元以上的巨型海外并购案。1989年，三菱公司14亿美元买下的洛克菲勒中心、松下60亿美元买下的美国环球影业、索尼公司以34亿美元买下哥伦比亚影片公司——其中包括漫威如今都没能收回的蜘蛛侠版权；日本人甚至雄心壮志地要将美国买成“日本的第四十一个县”，为什么从洛杉矶洲际酒店70楼看去的城市那么像东京？因为当年日本人买下了这里一半的地产。日本学者伊藤感在《横跨太平洋的愤怒》中写到，一些日本人相信日本会成为下一个\"超级大国\"，政府会带领民众\"终结美国的时代\"。只是这些地产，属于巨企、属于财团、属于投机者、属于外籍富商，但独独不属于日本的人民。2020年《产经新闻》报道，日本海外当地法人的营收在近20年内增长了220%，而按照OECD的统计数据，日本2020年的人均购买力水平仅为3.9万美元，比1990年仅增长了4%。1、三十年不动的收入1900年以后，日本的投资活动戛然而止。银行破产、工厂倒闭、房贷成灾，充斥着不良资产的银行不得不合并重组；剧烈抬升的生产成本让企业大批倒闭，最惨的还是普通人——在倒闭潮中被裁员、一辈子的积蓄在泡沫危机中挥发、还要背上沉重的房贷。而在终身雇佣制和年功序列崩解后，为了保住工作而拼命加班，“社畜”文化虽然不诞生于日本的泡沫危机，但却在这之后得到了固化——接受竞争和生产效率至上的齿轮对自己的压榨，成了日本打工人最无奈的选择。但社会发展的洪流推进着日本人前进，却没能给他们应有的回报。2021年2月，日本厚生劳动省发布的“勤劳统计调查”显示，日本2020年的人均月薪为31万8299日元，约合1.96万元人民币，同比减少1.2%，创下12年以来最大降幅。而这一数字在1990年时是35万元左右，当时的日本人平均年收入是425万日元，以当时的汇率计算，月薪约合1.16万人民币。连续30年“原地踏步”的平均年收入，成了日本最猛烈的“避孕药”。2、难以逆转的老龄化2020年，日本总人口居世界11位，是1950年以来首次跌出前十。从1974到2020年，日本出生率由1.86%降至0.67%，在2008年左右开始陷入连续13年的人口负增长。同时，日本65岁及以上老年人口达3640万，在总人口中所占比例达29.1%。少子老龄化，导致日本陷入严重的劳动力供给不足、劳动生产率增速趋缓，进而使经济增速持续放缓：“1961-2020年日本劳动年龄人口增速、劳动生产率增速与经济走势基本同步变化。伴随1961-1975年日本劳动年龄人口平均增速维持在1.6%的高位、劳动生产率增速达到8.4%峰值，实际GDP平均增速也维持在7.7%的高位；1976-1988年劳动年龄人口、劳动生产率分别维持0.9%、3.7%的低速增长，实际GDP增速也降至4.4%；1989-2020年劳动年龄人口、劳动生产率增速分别从0.9%、4.4%大幅降至-0.8%、1.1%，实际GDP增速从5.4%降至-4.4%。”在劳动人口下降，税收不断减少的情况下，需要支出的养老金等费用却在急速扩大，自1990年起，依附养老金生活的人数已经是纳税人的5倍。2004年日本启动了养老金改革，每年以0.354%的涨幅提高税收，到2017年纳税人缴纳的养老金已占到个人年收入的18.3%，成了日本民众沉重的负担。日本人类发展指数的排名（测量人均GDP，教育，以及医疗），则从1990年的世界第一掉落至2020年的世界第十九。同时，日本年轻人因预期收入下降而形成的生活态度消极、物质欲望低下、缺乏奋斗动力的风气，由此产生“蛰居族”。根据日本厚生劳动省定义，蛰居族为持续6个月以上待在家里不出门，几乎和外界断绝联系的人群，根据日本内阁府《生活状况相关调查》数据，15-39岁、40-64岁人口蛰居族分别达54.1、61.3万人。老年人的消费和购房需求远低于年轻人，年轻人又严重缺乏消费欲望，使得总消费难以大幅提升，日本陷入“低欲望社会”。3、终身QE，却始终乏力2021年，日本以49374亿美元的GDP总量跌下“5字头”，但依旧是傲视欧洲，名列世界第三大经济体的经济大国，看起来似乎并不差。但实际上，日本1995年GDP就已经达到了5.55万亿美元，当时日本GDP与美国GDP的比率是71.34%，2021年，这个比率变成了21.46%。与过往的辉煌相比，如今的日本确实有些困窘。同时，日本的宏观杠杆率也在全球领先。国际清算银行（BIS）最新数据显示，2021 年二季度末，各国宏观杠杆率中美国为286.2%、欧元区为284.3%，而日本为416.5%。庞大的债务规模来源于日本数十年的量化宽松。量化宽松，是日本在融领域的一个创新。1998年，日本央行本央行第一次开始实行零利率和量化宽松政策，即通过对通货供应量的控制来调节经济活动。2013年，日本央行行长黑田东彦推出提振通胀的货币政策刺激计划。从2013年开始，日元兑美元持续贬值，出口实现了较大幅度增长；同时日本基准利率一路下行，十年期国债利率在2016年甚至下降至负数。同时日本央行开始大规模购入ETF(交易所交易基金)，年均ETF购买规模接近4万亿日元，到2021年，日本央行持有股票占股票ETF的80%以上，占东京证券交易所总市值的5%以上。虽然日经225指数从2012年的八千点附近，一路走强，在2021年2月甚至突破了三万点大关，但这似乎仍然是一场镜花水月的泡沫化繁荣，因为日本央行注入的巨量基础货币既没有拉高通胀率，也没有拉动经济增长。经济结构上，日本除核心基础原材料依然保持壁垒优势，其他产业几乎都在裹足不前。汽车、造船、机床、电子产业的市场都在被美、中、韩等国瓜分，新兴产业上更是少有建树。目前日本独角兽企业数量仅6家，大幅落后于美、中、印、英、德、的554、180、64、43、26家，且估值均小于20亿美元。同时，日本的债务急剧扩张，截至2021年12月底，由国债、借款及政府短期证券构成的日本国家债务达到1218.4万亿日元，日本国民人均负债约为971万日元，约合人民币53万4573元。但在美、英、欧等央行均已开始紧缩步伐的当下，日本央行却仍旧未改变宽松的货币政策。“逆市”宽松、无限量印钞、日元连跌日元的连跌始于3月份。在3月美联储加息落地，并释放后续将加大加息幅度和加快缩表的信号后，英、欧均开始加速收紧货币政策，但日本央行却反其道而行之，坚持维持量化宽松政策。3 月 28 日，日本央行发布新闻稿宣布，将在3月 29-31 日间，发动抑制利率上升的“连续性指定价格市场操作”措施，即以指定的利率，无限量从民间金融机构手中收购公债。当天，日元汇率重挫1.38％。4月20日，不到一个月的时间内日本央行又宣布无限量购买10年期国债，以捍卫10年期日本国债0.25%的收益率上限，再度推动了日元的贬值。有专家认为，由于日元贬值有利于日本以出口为导向的经济，日本央行一直将宽松的货币环境作为提振市场预期的重要手段，尤其是在刚刚进入新财年的当下，日本央行更难有可能收紧货币政策。但宽松能挽救日本经济吗？实际上，日本贸易结构并不稳定，自安倍政府上台推出无限刺激政策后，出口总额在2012~2015年连续下降，仅2016、2017年两年保持了贸易顺差状态。近期全球原油和原材料价格飙升，日元贬值更是抬高了日本企业的成本，拓宽了输入型通胀的渠道。同时，根据OECD发布的“附加值贸易统计”数据显示，日本国内创造的附加值已经从1995年的94％降至2018年的83％，降低了11％，日本相关高附加值产品和服务已经越来越难抵消其不断提升的生产成本。唯一得益的，是日本本土的投机者们，随着美联储大幅落地，美债收益率持续飙涨，美日国债利差已经越来越大，于是本土的投机者们开始大规模沽空日元，借日元买美债的套利。对于老百姓来说呢？物价提升导致生活成本上升、消费力削弱，“失落的三十年”似乎又要延期——被日本央行认定“有利于经济”的日元贬值，多年来从未有效提振过日本的经济增长，反而让日本经济十数年来无法从大规模金融缓和政策中脱出。三十年前，时任央行行长三重野康告诫政府：一个国家绝对不能靠吹经济泡沫生存，否则将是国家的大害。于是在他上台不久后日本就实行了紧缩性的货币政策，大幅度提高了贷款利率，主动刺破泡沫。这场硬着陆让日本陷入了数十年的萧条，却也常被后人视为“壮士断腕”的果决。只是前车已覆，后未知更。三十年过去，日本似乎还是那个日本。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2106,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9079377928,"gmtCreate":1657154819264,"gmtModify":1676535959965,"author":{"id":"4118888674291832","authorId":"4118888674291832","name":"Hui 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Yean","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0965e84896827ab38942412eb422457d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4118888674291832","authorIdStr":"4118888674291832"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9047502318","repostId":"1128701140","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1128701140","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"有深度、有温度、有态度，在这里读懂财富。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"金融八卦女频道","id":"63","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01a8ace21e1041b4bb972ca835e331c7"},"pubTimestamp":1656917579,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1128701140?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-04 14:52","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Wenzhou's richest man fought Wall Street, JPMorgan Chase lost 800 million","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1128701140","media":"金融八卦女频道","summary":"这次华尔街失算了，金融领域华尔街还是天下第一，但他们的对手也不是没有长进。中国企业通过多年的努力，已经获得了丰富的市场经验和丰厚的资本，被别人摁在地上暴打时，还是有能力反击的。时隔三个多月，全地球人都","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>This time Wall Street miscalculated. In the financial field, Wall Street is still the best in the world, but their opponents are not without progress. Through years of hard work, Chinese enterprises have gained rich market experience and rich capital. When they are pressed on the ground and beaten by others, they still have the ability to fight back. After more than three months, the \"Demon Nickel Short Squeeze War\" known to all people on earth has finally come to an end:</p><p>Xiang Guangda, the richest man in Wenzhou, and his Tsingshan Group escaped unscathed, and Wall Street giant JPMorgan Chase cut its meat and lost 120 million US dollars (about 800 million yuan).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed3f5a82dbe41eeb1131b5fe7f4f8e37\" tg-width=\"693\" tg-height=\"442\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>▲ Xiang Guangda, the actual controller of Tsingshan Holdings/Source: Internet</p><p>According to news on June 29, Tsingshan Holding Group safely withdrew from most of its short nickel positions on the London Metal Exchange (LME). The size of positions has been reduced to about 30,000 tons, far lower than the peak of over 150,000 tons at the time of the incident, and these positions are not held through JPMorgan Chase.</p><p>This is probably the result of negotiations between the two parties. Tsingshan Group left dignity for Wall Street bosses. Otherwise, according to the situation at that time, 120 million US dollars was far from enough.</p><p>Friends who are concerned about this matter may still be \"confused\". Isn't the legendary mastermind behind the scenes the Swiss commodity giant \"Glencore\"? Why did JPMorgan Chase lose money in the end?</p><p>What exactly happened in these three months?</p><p><b>/Qingshan counterkills, Wall Street miscalculates/</b></p><p>Briefly sort out the entire process of the Lunni incident:</p><p>On March 7, 2022, Lunni futures soared from US $29,000/ton to US $55,000/ton, a 15-year high.</p><p>On March 8, Lunni futures rose straight from US $60,000/ton to US $100,000/ton, and the entire process took no more than one hour.</p><p>At 8:15 on March 8 (UK time), Lunkin Exchange suspended all nickel contract trading and canceled trading after 0:00 on March 8, commonly known as \"unplugging the network cable\".</p><p>On March 9, Xiang Guangda admitted that he had been squeezed short by foreign capital and had obtained sufficient spot goods through various channels.</p><p>On March 15, Tsingshan Group stated that it had reached a \"silent agreement\" with a syndicate of futures bank creditors. During this period, Tsingshan's positions will not be closed, and Tsingshan Group will reduce its positions thereafter.</p><p>On March 16, nickel trading at Lunjin Exchange resumed.</p><p>On June 29, Tsingshan Group withdrew from most of its short nickel positions in Lunjin, and the incident ended.</p><p>After reading this, people who don't know the details will still have questions, why is Tsingshan Group targeted by Wall Street capital?</p><p>I really can't blame Wall Street Capital. Tsingshan Group has cultivated itself into \"Tang Monk Meat\", who doesn't want to eat it.</p><p>Tsingshan Group has three fatal loopholes in this matter:</p><p>1. The nickel produced by Tsingshan Group is different from the delivery products traded by Lunjin Exchange. The product delivered by Lunjin Exchange is electrolytic nickel with a purity of more than 99.8%, while the nickel produced by Tsingshan Group is only about 70% high matte nickel and ferronickel with a content of about 10%. 2. There is a problem with the hedging operation of Tsingshan Group. At that time, it bought 200,000 tons of short futures orders, but the entire nickel inventory of Lunjin Exchange was only 80,000 tons. That is to say, even if it bought all the nickel of Lunjin Exchange, it could not make up half of its short futures orders. 3. Usually, when Tsingshan Group meets the delivery period, it will buy nickel with Russia to close its position. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine led to a reversal of market logic, and Russian nickel was embargoed. Tsingshan Group did not respond to this news in time. To sum up, although Tsingshan Group has a rich family, it has played all its good cards at this card table, with only \"1 to 3\" in its hand, and others can't afford to play any cards. In this situation, how could Wall Street capital, which was born bloodthirsty, let go of this seemingly \"must-win\" hunt? It's not like Wall Street hasn't done this before.</p><p>Therefore, Wall Street Capital quickly raised the price of nickel futures on March 7 and March 8, quickly raising something from 20,000 to 30,000 US dollars to 100,000 US dollars, incidentally breaking the \"highest price fluctuation of any kind of asset\" record. \"</p><p>The situation at that time was that Tsingshan Group would have to lose hundreds of billions if it could not ship goods, and if it had no money, it would have to sell Indonesian nickel ore. The new energy industry chain that Chinese companies have worked so hard to build might be severely hit.</p><p>This time Wall Street miscalculated. In the financial field, Wall Street is still the best in the world, but their opponents are not without progress. Through years of hard work, Chinese enterprises have gained rich market experience and rich capital. When they are pressed on the ground and beaten by others, they still have the ability to fight back.</p><p>Although we didn't know who started it at that time, on March 9th, Qingshan Group's counterattack began. Tsingshan Holdings responded that it will replace domestic metal nickel plates with its high matte nickel, which has been allocated to sufficient spot for delivery through various channels.</p><p>Judging from the gossip, several large enterprises in the industry participated in this replacement at that time, which can be described as united as one. Xiang Guangda's original words were: \"After receiving many phone calls, relevant state departments and leaders are very supportive of Qingshan.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c59e434fbd20c251852e2cf114ed5ca\" tg-width=\"509\" tg-height=\"227\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ccda0030b524a1d6ae7153f6bcfe1ae9\" tg-width=\"494\" tg-height=\"202\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>So, why didn't the final result be that Tsingshan Group took out 200,000 tons of nickel delivery products and handed them over to Wall Street takeovers, leaving them with nowhere to store the goods. In the end, they could only sell them at a low price and lose tens of billions of dollars?</p><p>Collecting 200,000 tons of nickel delivery products can certainly solve the urgent need, but what should domestic companies do if so much nickel is handed over? Do all companies stop production and wait for a few months before new nickel is produced before resuming production?</p><p>Doing so, of course, is very relieving, but the price paid is too great.</p><p>As a mature entrepreneur, Xiang Guangda negotiated with his opponents from March 9th to March 15th with the confidence that he could produce 200,000 tons of delivery products, and finally reached a \"silent agreement\".</p><p>Judging from the news on June 29, Tsingshan Group reduced its short position to turn the corner. Although Wall Street institutions lost a small amount of money, they avoided the expansion of losses, which is an acceptable result for both sides.</p><p><b>/Who is the real mastermind behind the \"Demon Nickel War\"? /</b></p><p>When the incident happened in early March, someone pressed the calculator and said that Tsingshan Group might lose 8 billion to 12 billion dollars at that time, equivalent to hundreds of billions of RMB. Short-squeezing such a large amount of funds will inevitably involve a lot of funds.</p><p>At that time, some people suspected that commodity giant Glencore was behind the scenes in order to obtain Tsingshan's 60% stake in Indonesian nickel mines. Founded in 1974, Glencore is the largest company in Switzerland, with an operating income of US $215.11 billion. Its business scope covers the supply of mineral products, energy products and agricultural products.</p><p>But it is impossible for Glencore to spend so much money by itself. There must be a team behind it. Judging from the current situation, at least now, JPMorgan Chase and Elliott, two \"wolves from Wall Street\", have been forced out.</p><p>In April, JPMorgan Chase sold it out in its first-quarter earnings report, which showed a loss of $120 million in nickel-related businesses.</p><p>Except for participating in the \"demon nickel short squeeze\" incident in March, it is difficult to have any other reason to be convincing that the veteran Wall Street investment banks lost hundreds of millions of dollars on a single futures commodity in the first quarter. Afterwards, relevant information also proved that it was the largest counterparty of Tsingshan Group's large short positions.</p><p>Three months ago, of Tsingshan's more than 150,000 tons of nickel short positions, about 50,000 tons were held through JPMorgan Chase's over-the-counter positions. At that time, Tsingshan Holding Group once owed JPMorgan Chase about US $1 billion in margin. In just three months, JPMorgan Chase fell into the quagmire of losses of $120 million.</p><p>With such a big hole in finance, the person in charge has to say something.</p><p>Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, said reluctantly: \"We had a bit of a loss this quarter, and we will try to tide over it. We will analyze what we have done wrong and what different measures can be taken afterwards.\"</p><p>This sentence is very official, but it has two meanings:</p><p>First, they are doing things for customers. JPMorgan Chase lost money, and so did their customers. As for who the customer is, whether it is Glencore or not, it is not said. Second, they have reservations about Lunjin Institute's behavior of \"unplugging the network cable\", and maybe they have to \"take measures\". It's hard to say what measures JPMorgan Chase will take, but some people have already started to take action. They don't seem to give up and are still making their final struggles.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/373adb34449d811ea165e417eea1bae6\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"634\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>▲ Source/vision china</p><p>According to the announcement issued by the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on June 6, on June 1, the well-known American investment company \"Elliott Management Company\" attacked them, arguing that the Lonkin Exchange \"cancelled the transaction after 00:00 UK time on March 8, 2022. The behavior is illegal.\"</p><p>Elliott's two hedge funds sued the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, its subsidiary LME and its clearing company LME Clear Limite to the British High Court, preparing to claim about US $456 million, or about 3 billion yuan.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9692a7e3296316fcd1fde0c491252117\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"712\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Elliott Management Company was founded in 1977, and its fund management scale will exceed US $51.5 billion by the end of 2021. It is a veritable wolf of Wall Street and is known for its tough, aggressive, and ruthless investment style.</p><p>Just how fierce is Elliot? It can make a country uneasy.</p><p>At the end of 2000, Argentina was in turmoil, with five consecutive presidents changing in half a month, and its foreign debt of up to 150 billion U.S. dollars was unable to repay. Just as other financial institutions avoided it in time, Elliott spent $617 million to bargain-hunting Argentine Treasury Bond.</p><p>In the following nine years, Argentina proposed a debt restructuring plan in order to revive the economy. The creditors headed by Elliott ruthlessly refused twice and took Argentina to the American court. I can't imagine how ruthless this move is. It can be compared to the current creditors who disagree with Evergrande's restructuring. What will happen to Evergrande?</p><p>On June 16, 2017, the U.S. Supreme Court finally ruled against Argentina. Argentina tearfully took out $2.28 billion to settle. This single Elliott earned 3.7 times, but every penny was the hard-earned money of the Argentine people.</p><p>As for how many Wall Street capital institutions are involved in this matter, it is still unclear. If Elliott can win the lawsuit with HKEx, it may be possible to see. Because when \"dividing the meat\", the wolves on Wall Street will be willing to go out.</p><p><b>/\"China's Nickel King\" pinches Musks' fate? /</b></p><p>According to national business daily, relevant personnel of Glencore said in response to whether they were involved in the matter, \"The above statement is total nonsense.\"</p><p>However, the report also pointed out that some insiders believe that Glencore is an indirect participant in this wave of market even if it is not directly involved. The reason why the market speculates this is that the competition for metal nickel has entered a fierce stage on a global scale.</p><p>Nickel is one of the important raw materials for manufacturing new energy ternary lithium batteries, accounting for nearly 30% of the total battery cost. If it is a high-nickel and ultra-high-nickel battery, the proportion will be even higher. However, nickel is unevenly distributed all over the world, making it difficult to mine.</p><p>\"Nickel anxiety\" is a common problem among new energy vehicle bosses. Even Tesla CEO Musk said that the shortage of nickel raw materials is the biggest obstacle to the production of electric vehicle batteries.</p><p>Data show that from March 2021 to March 2022, the nickel inventory of Lunjin Exchange continued to decline, with a drop of nearly 70%. The main reason is that nickel delivery products are bought in large quantities for the manufacture of new energy batteries. It is estimated that the nickel gap from 2023 to 2025 will be-25,600 tons,-27,900 tons, and-65,300 tons respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4245aa1e37a9a023ca6069abaa0dccba\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"631\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Isn't this just God feeding Xiang Guangda with a rice bowl?</p><p>Xiang Guangda was born in an ordinary worker's family in Shacheng Town, Longwan, Wenzhou in 1958. After graduation, he worked in a state-owned enterprise for eight years and became the workshop director.</p><p>In 1988, Xiang Guangda was ready to \"stand at thirty\". He gave up the \"iron rice bowl\" that everyone envied at that time, and jointly founded \"Zhejiang Ouhai Automobile Door and Window Manufacturing Company\" with Zhang Jimin and other relatives.</p><p>Because of his emphasis on research and development, Xiang Guangda's automobile doors and windows business is very good. At the end of 1993, he jointly developed automobile rim steel with a Chinese automobile wheel factory, and invested 24 million yuan to establish \"Zhejiang Fengye Special-shaped Steel Company\". In 1995, the company was reorganized and \"Zhejiang Fengye Group Co., Ltd.\" was established, officially entering the stainless steel industry.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1739f693edc5047788bfff78b4944285\" tg-width=\"400\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>After 2005, the entire steel industry entered a destocking cycle. Xiang Guangda realized that if it didn't change, the enterprise would sooner or later be submerged in the torrent of stainless steel enterprises.</p><p>Xiang Guangda invested 10 billion yuan in the research and development of new technologies, took the lead in introducing the internationally advanced rotary kiln-submerged furnace (RKEF) smelting process, and led a team to develop the new technology of RKEF-AOD furnace dual method, which reduced the total energy consumption of stainless steel smelting. It was cut by 50% and saved 800 yuan per ton.</p><p>\"60%-70% of stainless steel is nickel, so who produces nickel? It is produced by foreigners, but we don't produce it ourselves.\" Xiang Guangda put the production of \"nickel\" on the agenda again.</p><p>During the financial crisis in 2008, Xiang Guangda took the opportunity to acquire the Indonesian nickel mine with the highest nickel reserves in the world. Tsingshan Holdings and Indonesia Eight Star Investment Co., Ltd. jointly established Sulawesi Mining Investment Co., Ltd., and obtained the mining right of laterite nickel mine with an area of 47,000 hectares.</p><p>The mining park was quickly established, and in February 2010, nickel produced abroad by a Chinese company for the first time was successfully shipped back to China. Tsingshan Holding Group has conquered the technology of purifying high matte nickel with laterite nickel ore. After the operation, Xiang Guangda has opened up the upstream and downstream of nickel production.</p><p>With \"nickel\" in hand, there is no need to worry about stainless steel. Tsingshan Holding Group has more than ten stainless steel subsidiaries. From 2009 to 2019, Tsingshan Holding's stainless steel output increased from one million tons to tens of millions of tons, and its sales increased from tens of billions to more than 200 billion yuan. At present, it has secured the throne of the world's largest stainless steel manufacturer.</p><p>Xiang Guangda has also become a frequent visitor at the local government enterprise symposium.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c46ceaa170e4d055c8235a32992a6dfb\" tg-width=\"618\" tg-height=\"453\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>In 2021, the total revenue of Tsingshan Holding Group will reach 292.892 billion, ranking 279th among the world's top 500 companies. Tianyancha shows that Xiang Guangda holds 48.45% of the equity of Tsingshan Holding Group through various channels and is the actual controller of the group.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/684284868a43986c93078ec1487797ce\" tg-width=\"507\" tg-height=\"760\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>▲ Tsingshan Holdings Equity Structure/Screenshot of Tianyancha</p><p>In recent years, the new energy industry has gradually emerged, especially after 2020, new energy has become the hottest track at the moment. The market value of A-share CATL and BYD has exceeded one trillion yuan, and the market value of Tesla even exceeds the combined market value of several established auto companies.</p><p>The new energy industry is short of nickel, and Xiang Guangda has a lot of it. Tsingshan Holdings' nickel output will be 600,000 tons in 2021, reach 850,000 tons in 2022, accounting for 30% of the global total, and will reach 1.1 million tons in 2023.</p><p>Holding nearly 30% of the world's nickel production, it can be said that Xiang Guangda is a proper \"king of nickel\" and has also pinched the life gate of the new energy automobile industry to death.</p><p>If you are not satisfied, you just \"work\" for new energy vehicles. At present, Tsingshan Group has joined hands with Xugong Group to enter the new energy vehicle industry.</p><p>It's just that there are many people who are popular, and pigs on the tuyere are also the easiest targets to be attacked. Xiang Guangda, who survived this \"robbery\" safely, still needs to be careful. He has too much \"nickel\" in his hand, which is too tempting.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Wenzhou's richest man fought Wall Street, JPMorgan Chase lost 800 million</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWenzhou's richest man fought Wall Street, JPMorgan Chase lost 800 million\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/63\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/01a8ace21e1041b4bb972ca835e331c7);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">金融八卦女频道 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-07-04 14:52</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>This time Wall Street miscalculated. In the financial field, Wall Street is still the best in the world, but their opponents are not without progress. Through years of hard work, Chinese enterprises have gained rich market experience and rich capital. When they are pressed on the ground and beaten by others, they still have the ability to fight back. After more than three months, the \"Demon Nickel Short Squeeze War\" known to all people on earth has finally come to an end:</p><p>Xiang Guangda, the richest man in Wenzhou, and his Tsingshan Group escaped unscathed, and Wall Street giant JPMorgan Chase cut its meat and lost 120 million US dollars (about 800 million yuan).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed3f5a82dbe41eeb1131b5fe7f4f8e37\" tg-width=\"693\" tg-height=\"442\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>▲ Xiang Guangda, the actual controller of Tsingshan Holdings/Source: Internet</p><p>According to news on June 29, Tsingshan Holding Group safely withdrew from most of its short nickel positions on the London Metal Exchange (LME). The size of positions has been reduced to about 30,000 tons, far lower than the peak of over 150,000 tons at the time of the incident, and these positions are not held through JPMorgan Chase.</p><p>This is probably the result of negotiations between the two parties. Tsingshan Group left dignity for Wall Street bosses. Otherwise, according to the situation at that time, 120 million US dollars was far from enough.</p><p>Friends who are concerned about this matter may still be \"confused\". Isn't the legendary mastermind behind the scenes the Swiss commodity giant \"Glencore\"? Why did JPMorgan Chase lose money in the end?</p><p>What exactly happened in these three months?</p><p><b>/Qingshan counterkills, Wall Street miscalculates/</b></p><p>Briefly sort out the entire process of the Lunni incident:</p><p>On March 7, 2022, Lunni futures soared from US $29,000/ton to US $55,000/ton, a 15-year high.</p><p>On March 8, Lunni futures rose straight from US $60,000/ton to US $100,000/ton, and the entire process took no more than one hour.</p><p>At 8:15 on March 8 (UK time), Lunkin Exchange suspended all nickel contract trading and canceled trading after 0:00 on March 8, commonly known as \"unplugging the network cable\".</p><p>On March 9, Xiang Guangda admitted that he had been squeezed short by foreign capital and had obtained sufficient spot goods through various channels.</p><p>On March 15, Tsingshan Group stated that it had reached a \"silent agreement\" with a syndicate of futures bank creditors. During this period, Tsingshan's positions will not be closed, and Tsingshan Group will reduce its positions thereafter.</p><p>On March 16, nickel trading at Lunjin Exchange resumed.</p><p>On June 29, Tsingshan Group withdrew from most of its short nickel positions in Lunjin, and the incident ended.</p><p>After reading this, people who don't know the details will still have questions, why is Tsingshan Group targeted by Wall Street capital?</p><p>I really can't blame Wall Street Capital. Tsingshan Group has cultivated itself into \"Tang Monk Meat\", who doesn't want to eat it.</p><p>Tsingshan Group has three fatal loopholes in this matter:</p><p>1. The nickel produced by Tsingshan Group is different from the delivery products traded by Lunjin Exchange. The product delivered by Lunjin Exchange is electrolytic nickel with a purity of more than 99.8%, while the nickel produced by Tsingshan Group is only about 70% high matte nickel and ferronickel with a content of about 10%. 2. There is a problem with the hedging operation of Tsingshan Group. At that time, it bought 200,000 tons of short futures orders, but the entire nickel inventory of Lunjin Exchange was only 80,000 tons. That is to say, even if it bought all the nickel of Lunjin Exchange, it could not make up half of its short futures orders. 3. Usually, when Tsingshan Group meets the delivery period, it will buy nickel with Russia to close its position. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine led to a reversal of market logic, and Russian nickel was embargoed. Tsingshan Group did not respond to this news in time. To sum up, although Tsingshan Group has a rich family, it has played all its good cards at this card table, with only \"1 to 3\" in its hand, and others can't afford to play any cards. In this situation, how could Wall Street capital, which was born bloodthirsty, let go of this seemingly \"must-win\" hunt? It's not like Wall Street hasn't done this before.</p><p>Therefore, Wall Street Capital quickly raised the price of nickel futures on March 7 and March 8, quickly raising something from 20,000 to 30,000 US dollars to 100,000 US dollars, incidentally breaking the \"highest price fluctuation of any kind of asset\" record. \"</p><p>The situation at that time was that Tsingshan Group would have to lose hundreds of billions if it could not ship goods, and if it had no money, it would have to sell Indonesian nickel ore. The new energy industry chain that Chinese companies have worked so hard to build might be severely hit.</p><p>This time Wall Street miscalculated. In the financial field, Wall Street is still the best in the world, but their opponents are not without progress. Through years of hard work, Chinese enterprises have gained rich market experience and rich capital. When they are pressed on the ground and beaten by others, they still have the ability to fight back.</p><p>Although we didn't know who started it at that time, on March 9th, Qingshan Group's counterattack began. Tsingshan Holdings responded that it will replace domestic metal nickel plates with its high matte nickel, which has been allocated to sufficient spot for delivery through various channels.</p><p>Judging from the gossip, several large enterprises in the industry participated in this replacement at that time, which can be described as united as one. Xiang Guangda's original words were: \"After receiving many phone calls, relevant state departments and leaders are very supportive of Qingshan.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c59e434fbd20c251852e2cf114ed5ca\" tg-width=\"509\" tg-height=\"227\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ccda0030b524a1d6ae7153f6bcfe1ae9\" tg-width=\"494\" tg-height=\"202\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>So, why didn't the final result be that Tsingshan Group took out 200,000 tons of nickel delivery products and handed them over to Wall Street takeovers, leaving them with nowhere to store the goods. In the end, they could only sell them at a low price and lose tens of billions of dollars?</p><p>Collecting 200,000 tons of nickel delivery products can certainly solve the urgent need, but what should domestic companies do if so much nickel is handed over? Do all companies stop production and wait for a few months before new nickel is produced before resuming production?</p><p>Doing so, of course, is very relieving, but the price paid is too great.</p><p>As a mature entrepreneur, Xiang Guangda negotiated with his opponents from March 9th to March 15th with the confidence that he could produce 200,000 tons of delivery products, and finally reached a \"silent agreement\".</p><p>Judging from the news on June 29, Tsingshan Group reduced its short position to turn the corner. Although Wall Street institutions lost a small amount of money, they avoided the expansion of losses, which is an acceptable result for both sides.</p><p><b>/Who is the real mastermind behind the \"Demon Nickel War\"? /</b></p><p>When the incident happened in early March, someone pressed the calculator and said that Tsingshan Group might lose 8 billion to 12 billion dollars at that time, equivalent to hundreds of billions of RMB. Short-squeezing such a large amount of funds will inevitably involve a lot of funds.</p><p>At that time, some people suspected that commodity giant Glencore was behind the scenes in order to obtain Tsingshan's 60% stake in Indonesian nickel mines. Founded in 1974, Glencore is the largest company in Switzerland, with an operating income of US $215.11 billion. Its business scope covers the supply of mineral products, energy products and agricultural products.</p><p>But it is impossible for Glencore to spend so much money by itself. There must be a team behind it. Judging from the current situation, at least now, JPMorgan Chase and Elliott, two \"wolves from Wall Street\", have been forced out.</p><p>In April, JPMorgan Chase sold it out in its first-quarter earnings report, which showed a loss of $120 million in nickel-related businesses.</p><p>Except for participating in the \"demon nickel short squeeze\" incident in March, it is difficult to have any other reason to be convincing that the veteran Wall Street investment banks lost hundreds of millions of dollars on a single futures commodity in the first quarter. Afterwards, relevant information also proved that it was the largest counterparty of Tsingshan Group's large short positions.</p><p>Three months ago, of Tsingshan's more than 150,000 tons of nickel short positions, about 50,000 tons were held through JPMorgan Chase's over-the-counter positions. At that time, Tsingshan Holding Group once owed JPMorgan Chase about US $1 billion in margin. In just three months, JPMorgan Chase fell into the quagmire of losses of $120 million.</p><p>With such a big hole in finance, the person in charge has to say something.</p><p>Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, said reluctantly: \"We had a bit of a loss this quarter, and we will try to tide over it. We will analyze what we have done wrong and what different measures can be taken afterwards.\"</p><p>This sentence is very official, but it has two meanings:</p><p>First, they are doing things for customers. JPMorgan Chase lost money, and so did their customers. As for who the customer is, whether it is Glencore or not, it is not said. Second, they have reservations about Lunjin Institute's behavior of \"unplugging the network cable\", and maybe they have to \"take measures\". It's hard to say what measures JPMorgan Chase will take, but some people have already started to take action. They don't seem to give up and are still making their final struggles.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/373adb34449d811ea165e417eea1bae6\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"634\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>▲ Source/vision china</p><p>According to the announcement issued by the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on June 6, on June 1, the well-known American investment company \"Elliott Management Company\" attacked them, arguing that the Lonkin Exchange \"cancelled the transaction after 00:00 UK time on March 8, 2022. The behavior is illegal.\"</p><p>Elliott's two hedge funds sued the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, its subsidiary LME and its clearing company LME Clear Limite to the British High Court, preparing to claim about US $456 million, or about 3 billion yuan.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9692a7e3296316fcd1fde0c491252117\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"712\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Elliott Management Company was founded in 1977, and its fund management scale will exceed US $51.5 billion by the end of 2021. It is a veritable wolf of Wall Street and is known for its tough, aggressive, and ruthless investment style.</p><p>Just how fierce is Elliot? It can make a country uneasy.</p><p>At the end of 2000, Argentina was in turmoil, with five consecutive presidents changing in half a month, and its foreign debt of up to 150 billion U.S. dollars was unable to repay. Just as other financial institutions avoided it in time, Elliott spent $617 million to bargain-hunting Argentine Treasury Bond.</p><p>In the following nine years, Argentina proposed a debt restructuring plan in order to revive the economy. The creditors headed by Elliott ruthlessly refused twice and took Argentina to the American court. I can't imagine how ruthless this move is. It can be compared to the current creditors who disagree with Evergrande's restructuring. What will happen to Evergrande?</p><p>On June 16, 2017, the U.S. Supreme Court finally ruled against Argentina. Argentina tearfully took out $2.28 billion to settle. This single Elliott earned 3.7 times, but every penny was the hard-earned money of the Argentine people.</p><p>As for how many Wall Street capital institutions are involved in this matter, it is still unclear. If Elliott can win the lawsuit with HKEx, it may be possible to see. Because when \"dividing the meat\", the wolves on Wall Street will be willing to go out.</p><p><b>/\"China's Nickel King\" pinches Musks' fate? /</b></p><p>According to national business daily, relevant personnel of Glencore said in response to whether they were involved in the matter, \"The above statement is total nonsense.\"</p><p>However, the report also pointed out that some insiders believe that Glencore is an indirect participant in this wave of market even if it is not directly involved. The reason why the market speculates this is that the competition for metal nickel has entered a fierce stage on a global scale.</p><p>Nickel is one of the important raw materials for manufacturing new energy ternary lithium batteries, accounting for nearly 30% of the total battery cost. If it is a high-nickel and ultra-high-nickel battery, the proportion will be even higher. However, nickel is unevenly distributed all over the world, making it difficult to mine.</p><p>\"Nickel anxiety\" is a common problem among new energy vehicle bosses. Even Tesla CEO Musk said that the shortage of nickel raw materials is the biggest obstacle to the production of electric vehicle batteries.</p><p>Data show that from March 2021 to March 2022, the nickel inventory of Lunjin Exchange continued to decline, with a drop of nearly 70%. The main reason is that nickel delivery products are bought in large quantities for the manufacture of new energy batteries. It is estimated that the nickel gap from 2023 to 2025 will be-25,600 tons,-27,900 tons, and-65,300 tons respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4245aa1e37a9a023ca6069abaa0dccba\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"631\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Isn't this just God feeding Xiang Guangda with a rice bowl?</p><p>Xiang Guangda was born in an ordinary worker's family in Shacheng Town, Longwan, Wenzhou in 1958. After graduation, he worked in a state-owned enterprise for eight years and became the workshop director.</p><p>In 1988, Xiang Guangda was ready to \"stand at thirty\". He gave up the \"iron rice bowl\" that everyone envied at that time, and jointly founded \"Zhejiang Ouhai Automobile Door and Window Manufacturing Company\" with Zhang Jimin and other relatives.</p><p>Because of his emphasis on research and development, Xiang Guangda's automobile doors and windows business is very good. At the end of 1993, he jointly developed automobile rim steel with a Chinese automobile wheel factory, and invested 24 million yuan to establish \"Zhejiang Fengye Special-shaped Steel Company\". In 1995, the company was reorganized and \"Zhejiang Fengye Group Co., Ltd.\" was established, officially entering the stainless steel industry.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1739f693edc5047788bfff78b4944285\" tg-width=\"400\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>After 2005, the entire steel industry entered a destocking cycle. Xiang Guangda realized that if it didn't change, the enterprise would sooner or later be submerged in the torrent of stainless steel enterprises.</p><p>Xiang Guangda invested 10 billion yuan in the research and development of new technologies, took the lead in introducing the internationally advanced rotary kiln-submerged furnace (RKEF) smelting process, and led a team to develop the new technology of RKEF-AOD furnace dual method, which reduced the total energy consumption of stainless steel smelting. It was cut by 50% and saved 800 yuan per ton.</p><p>\"60%-70% of stainless steel is nickel, so who produces nickel? It is produced by foreigners, but we don't produce it ourselves.\" Xiang Guangda put the production of \"nickel\" on the agenda again.</p><p>During the financial crisis in 2008, Xiang Guangda took the opportunity to acquire the Indonesian nickel mine with the highest nickel reserves in the world. Tsingshan Holdings and Indonesia Eight Star Investment Co., Ltd. jointly established Sulawesi Mining Investment Co., Ltd., and obtained the mining right of laterite nickel mine with an area of 47,000 hectares.</p><p>The mining park was quickly established, and in February 2010, nickel produced abroad by a Chinese company for the first time was successfully shipped back to China. Tsingshan Holding Group has conquered the technology of purifying high matte nickel with laterite nickel ore. After the operation, Xiang Guangda has opened up the upstream and downstream of nickel production.</p><p>With \"nickel\" in hand, there is no need to worry about stainless steel. Tsingshan Holding Group has more than ten stainless steel subsidiaries. From 2009 to 2019, Tsingshan Holding's stainless steel output increased from one million tons to tens of millions of tons, and its sales increased from tens of billions to more than 200 billion yuan. At present, it has secured the throne of the world's largest stainless steel manufacturer.</p><p>Xiang Guangda has also become a frequent visitor at the local government enterprise symposium.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c46ceaa170e4d055c8235a32992a6dfb\" tg-width=\"618\" tg-height=\"453\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>In 2021, the total revenue of Tsingshan Holding Group will reach 292.892 billion, ranking 279th among the world's top 500 companies. Tianyancha shows that Xiang Guangda holds 48.45% of the equity of Tsingshan Holding Group through various channels and is the actual controller of the group.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/684284868a43986c93078ec1487797ce\" tg-width=\"507\" tg-height=\"760\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>▲ Tsingshan Holdings Equity Structure/Screenshot of Tianyancha</p><p>In recent years, the new energy industry has gradually emerged, especially after 2020, new energy has become the hottest track at the moment. The market value of A-share CATL and BYD has exceeded one trillion yuan, and the market value of Tesla even exceeds the combined market value of several established auto companies.</p><p>The new energy industry is short of nickel, and Xiang Guangda has a lot of it. Tsingshan Holdings' nickel output will be 600,000 tons in 2021, reach 850,000 tons in 2022, accounting for 30% of the global total, and will reach 1.1 million tons in 2023.</p><p>Holding nearly 30% of the world's nickel production, it can be said that Xiang Guangda is a proper \"king of nickel\" and has also pinched the life gate of the new energy automobile industry to death.</p><p>If you are not satisfied, you just \"work\" for new energy vehicles. At present, Tsingshan Group has joined hands with Xugong Group to enter the new energy vehicle industry.</p><p>It's just that there are many people who are popular, and pigs on the tuyere are also the easiest targets to be attacked. Xiang Guangda, who survived this \"robbery\" safely, still needs to be careful. He has too much \"nickel\" in his hand, which is too tempting.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed3f5a82dbe41eeb1131b5fe7f4f8e37","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1128701140","content_text":"这次华尔街失算了，金融领域华尔街还是天下第一，但他们的对手也不是没有长进。中国企业通过多年的努力，已经获得了丰富的市场经验和丰厚的资本，被别人摁在地上暴打时，还是有能力反击的。时隔三个多月，全地球人都知道的“妖镍逼空大战”，终于告一段落：温州首富项光达和他的青山集团全身而退，华尔街巨头摩根大通割肉出局，亏了1.2亿美金（约8亿人民币）。▲青山控股实控人项光达/图源：网络6月29日消息，青山控股集团安全退出了伦敦金属交易所（LME）的大部分镍空头头寸。持仓规模已经缩减至3万吨左右，远低于事发时的超15万吨的峰值，且这些头寸都不是通过摩根大通持有。这很可能是双方协商的结果，青山集团给华尔街大佬留了体面，否则根据当时的情况，1.2亿美金是远远不够的。关注这个事情的朋友可能还“懵着”，传说中的幕后黑手不是瑞士大宗商品巨鳄“嘉能可”吗，怎么最后亏损的是摩根大通？这三个月到底发生了什么？/青山反杀，华尔街失算/简单梳理一下伦镍事件的整个过程：2022年3月7日伦镍期货从2.9万美元/吨，飙涨到5.5万美元/吨，创15年内新高。3月8日伦镍期货从6万美元/吨直线拉升到10万美元/吨，整个过程不超过1小时。3月8日8时15分（英国时间），伦金所暂停所有镍合约的交易，并取消3月8日0点之后的交易，俗称“拔网线”。3月9日，项光达承认被外国资本逼空，已通过多种渠道获得充足现货。3月15日，青山集团表示与期货银行债权人组成的银团达成“静默协议”。期间不会对青山的持仓进行平仓，此后青山集团会减少持仓。3月16日，伦金所镍交易恢复。6月29日，青山集团退出了伦金所的大部分镍空头头寸，事件结束。读到这里，不了解其中细节的人还会有疑问，为什么是青山集团被华尔街资本盯上了呢？还真不能怪华尔街资本，青山集团把自己养成“唐僧肉”，谁不想吃呢。青山集团在此事上有三大致命漏洞：1、青山集团生产的镍，与伦金所交易的交割品不一样。伦金所交割品是纯度高达99.8%以上的电解镍，而青山集团生产的镍只有70%左右高冰镍和含量10%左右的镍铁。2、青山集团的对冲操作有问题。当时它买了20万吨期货空单，但整个伦金所镍库存只有8万吨，也就是说把伦金所的镍都买了，也凑不齐它期货空单的一半。3、平常青山集团遇到交割期，会跟俄罗斯买镍平仓。俄乌冲突导致市场逻辑逆转，俄罗斯的镍被禁运，青山集团没有及时对这一消息有所反应。综上，青山集团虽然家底丰厚，但在这张牌桌上，它把好牌都出了，手里只有“1对3”，别人出什么牌都要不起。遇到这种情况，天生嗜血的华尔街资本，怎么可能放过这场看似“必赢”的围猎。华尔街以前也不是没干过这种事。所以，华尔街资本于3月7日、3月8日两日快速拉升镍期货价格，将两三万美金的东西快速拉升到10万美金，顺带破了“任何一种资产价格波动的最高纪录。”当时的情况就是，青山集团拿不出货就得赔钱上千亿，没钱就得卖印尼的镍矿，中国企业辛辛苦苦建立的新能源产业链，恐将遭到狠狠一棒槌。这次华尔街失算了，金融领域华尔街还是天下第一，但他们的对手也不是没有长进。中国企业通过多年的努力，已经获得了丰富的市场经验和丰厚的资本，被别人摁在地上暴打时，还是有能力反击的。虽然当时还不知道谁下手的，但3月9日，青山集团的反杀就开始了。青山控股回应称，将用旗下高冰镍置换国内金属镍板，已通过多种渠道调配到充足现货进行交割。从小道消息来看，当时业内好几家大型企业都参与到了此次的置换，可谓是众志成城。项光达的原话是：“接到很多电话，国家有关部门和领导对青山都很支持。”那么，最后的结果为什么不是青山集团拿出20万吨镍交割品，交给华尔街接盘侠，让他们拿货无处存放，最后只能低价出售，赔上百亿美金呢？凑了20万吨镍交割品固然能够解决燃眉之急，但这么多镍交出去，国内企业该怎么办？难道所有企业都停止生产，等上几个月，新镍生产出来再恢复生产？这么做，固然很解气，付出的代价也太大了。项光达作为成熟的企业家，3月9日到3月15日，他在能拿出20万吨交割品的底气下，同对手进行了谈判，最终达成了“静默协议”。从6月29日的消息来看，青山集团缩减了空头头寸让自己转危为安，华尔街机构虽然赔了点小钱，但避免了损失扩大化，算是两边都能接受的结果。/谁是“妖镍大战”真正的幕后黑手？/3月初事件发生时，有人按过计算器，说当时青山集团可能亏损80亿到120亿美金，折合人民币上千亿。逼空这么大体量资金，涉及的资金必然不会少。当时有人怀疑大宗商品巨头嘉能可是幕后黑手，目的是为了拿到青山在印尼镍矿60%的股权。嘉能可成立于1974年，是瑞士最大的企业，营业收入高达2151.1亿美元，经营范围覆盖矿产品、能源产品和农产品的供应。但嘉能可不可能自己拿出这么多钱，背后一定有团队。从目前的情况看，至少现在已经逼出来摩根大通和埃利奥特这两头“来自华尔街的狼”。4月，摩根大通第一季财报早就出卖了它，财报显示与镍相关的业务出现了1.2亿美元的亏损。能让华尔街老牌投行一季度在单一期货商品上大亏上亿美元，除了参与了3月的“妖镍逼空”事件，很难有别的理由让人信服。事后相关信息也证明，它是青山集团大量空头头寸的最大交易对手方。而三个月前，在青山逾15万吨的镍空头头寸中，约有5万吨是通过摩根大通场外头寸持有，当时青山控股集团一度欠摩根大通约10亿美元保证金。短短三个月间，摩根大通便陷入了1.2亿美元亏损的泥潭。财务上出了这么大窟窿，负责人总得说点什么吧。摩根大通首席执行官杰米·戴蒙（Jamie Dimon）不情愿地说：“我们本季度有一点亏损，我们会设法渡过难关的。我们会对自己做错了什么，以及伦金所之后可以采取哪些不同措施进行事后分析。”这句话说的很官方，但细品有两重意思：一，他们是在帮客户做事，摩根大通亏了，他们的客户也亏了。至于客户是谁，是不是嘉能可，并没说。二，他们对伦金所“拔网线”的行为是有保留意见的，说不定还得“采取措施”。摩根大通会采取什么措施不好说，但有人已经开始行动了，他们似乎并不认输，还在做最后的挣扎。▲图源/视觉中国根据港交所6月6日发布的公告，6月1日美国著名投资公司“埃利奥特管理公司”向他们发难，认为伦金所“取消2022年3月8日英国时间00：00之后交易的行为不合法。”埃利奥特旗下两只对冲基金将港交所和其子公司伦金所（LME）及其清算公司LME Clear Limite告上英国高等法院，准备索赔约4.56亿美元，约30亿人民币。埃利奥特管理公司成立于1977年，2021年底基金管理规模超515亿美元，它是名副其实的华尔街之狼，以强硬、激进、狠辣的投资风格闻名。埃利奥特到底有多凶狠？它能让一个国家不得安生。2000年底，阿根廷动荡不安，半个月连续换了5任总统，高达1500亿美元的外债无力偿还。正当其他金融机构避之不及时，埃利奥特用6.17亿美元抄底阿根廷国债。此后9年时间里，阿根廷为了重振经济提出债务重组方案，埃利奥特为首的债权人2次无情拒绝，还将阿根廷告上美国法庭。想象不到这招有多狠，可以类比现在债权人不同意恒大重组，恒大会怎样。2017年6月16日，美国最高法院最终判决阿根廷败诉。阿根廷含泪拿出了22.8亿美元和解，这一单埃利奥特赚了3.7倍，但每一分钱都是阿根廷人民的血汗钱。至于到底有多少华尔街的资本机构参与此事，目前还不明确。如果埃利奥特能从与港交所的官司中获胜，或许有可能看到。因为“分肉”的时候，华尔街的狼才会愿意倾巢出动。/“中国镍王”捏住马斯克们命门？ /据《每日经济新闻》报道，嘉能可相关人员在回复是否参与此事时表示，“上述这种说法完全是胡说八道（total nonsense）。”但报道中也同时指出有行内人员认为嘉能可即使没有直接参与，也是这一波行情的间接参与者。市场之所以这样猜测，是因为在全球范围内，对于金属镍的争夺已经进入白热化的阶段。镍是制造新能源三元锂电池的重要原材料之一，在电池总成本中占比将近30%，如果是高镍、超高镍电池这个比例还将更高。但镍元素在全世界分布不均，开采难度大。“镍焦虑”是新能源汽车大佬的普遍问题，连特斯拉CEO马斯克都说，镍原料的短缺是影响电动车电池生产的最大障碍。数据显示，2021年3月至2022年3月，伦金所的镍库存持续下降，降幅接近70%。主要原因是镍交割品被大量买去用于制造新能源电池。预计2023年-2025年镍的缺口分别为-2.56万吨、-2.79万吨、-6.53万吨。这不就是老天爷端着饭碗给项光达喂饭吗？1958年项光达出生于温州龙湾沙城镇的一个普通工人家庭。毕业后在国企干了八年，还当上了车间主任。1988年，项光达准备“三十而立”，他放弃了当时人人羡慕的“铁饭碗”，联合张积敏等亲戚合伙创办了“浙江瓯海汽车门窗制造公司”。由于注重研发，项光达的汽车门窗生意很好。1993年底，他与中国一汽车轮厂联合开发汽车轮辋钢，并投资2400万元，成立“浙江丰业异型钢公司”。并于1995年改组公司，成立“浙江丰业集团有限公司”，正式进入不锈钢行业。2005年之后，整个钢铁行业进入去库存周期。项光达意识到，如果不改变，企业迟早淹没在不锈钢企业的洪流中。项光达拿出100亿投入研发新技术，率先引进国际先进的回转窑—矿热炉（RKEF）冶炼工艺，又带队研发出RKEF—AOD炉双联法新技术，把不锈钢冶炼的总能耗砍掉了50%，每吨成本节省800元。“不锈钢60%--70%都是镍，那镍是谁来生产的？是老外生产的，我们自己没有生产。”项光达又将生产“镍”提到了议事日程。2008年金融危机时，项光达趁机收购了全球镍储量最高的印尼镍矿。青山控股与印尼八星投资有限公司合资设立苏拉威西矿业投资有限公司，获得了面积为4.70万公顷的红土镍矿开采权。矿业园区很快建立，2010年2月，第一次由中国公司在国外生产的镍顺利装船回国。青山控股集团又攻克了用红土镍矿提纯高冰镍的技术，一通操作下来，项光达已经打通了镍生产的上下游。有“镍”在手，不锈钢不愁。青山控股集团旗下有十多家不锈钢类子公司，2009年至2019年，青山控股不锈钢产量从百万吨增至千万吨，销售额从几百亿增至2000多亿元，目前已经坐稳全球最大不锈钢生产企业的宝座。项光达也成为当地政府企业座谈会上的常客。2021年青山控股集团总营收高达2928.92亿，位列世界500强第279位。天眼查显示，项光达通过各种路径，占有青山控股集团的股权比例高达48.45%，是集团的实际控制人。▲青山控股股权结构/天眼查截图这些年，新能源产业逐步兴起，尤其是2020年之后，新能源成为当下最火的赛道，没有之一。A股的宁德时代、比亚迪市值破万亿，特斯拉的市值甚至超过几家老牌汽车公司市值总和。新能源行业缺镍，项光达手里有很多。青山控股2021年镍产量为60万吨，2022年将达到85万吨占到全球总量的30%，2023年更将达到110万吨。手握全球近30%的镍产量，可以说，项光达是妥妥的“镍之王”，也把新能源汽车行业的命门捏得死死的。不满足只是给新能源汽车“打工”，目前青山集团已携手徐工集团，入局新能源汽车产业。只是人红是非多，风口上的猪也是最容易被下手的对象。安然渡过这一“劫”的项光达，还是要小心，他手上的“镍”太多，太诱人了。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2164,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9044862282,"gmtCreate":1656731800646,"gmtModify":1676535886315,"author":{"id":"4118888674291832","authorId":"4118888674291832","name":"Hui 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Yean","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0965e84896827ab38942412eb422457d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4118888674291832","authorIdStr":"4118888674291832"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9045545589","repostId":"2248349068","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":820,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9045548547,"gmtCreate":1656637636889,"gmtModify":1676535868302,"author":{"id":"4118888674291832","authorId":"4118888674291832","name":"Hui Yean","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0965e84896827ab38942412eb422457d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4118888674291832","authorIdStr":"4118888674291832"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9045548547","repostId":"1155386517","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1155386517","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1656633821,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1155386517?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-01 08:03","market":"sg","language":"en","title":"Singapore Bourse May Give Up Support At 3,100 Points","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1155386517","media":"RTTNews","summary":"The Singapore stock market has closed lower in consecutive trading days, dropping almost 40 points o","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>The Singapore stock market has closed lower in consecutive trading days, dropping almost 40 points or 1.3 percent along the way. The Straits Times Index now rests just above the 3,100-point plateau and it&#39;s likely to open under pressure again on Friday.</p><p>The global forecast for the Asian markets calls for continued consolidation, with energy, steel and financial stocks likely to lead the way lower. The European and U.S. markets were down and the Asian markets are tipped to follow suit.</p><p>The STI finished sharply lower on Thursday following losses from the financial shares, property stocks and industrials.</p><p>For the day, the index retreated 32.66 points or 1.04 percent to finish at the daily low of 3,102.21 after peaking at 3,138.21. Volume was 1.13 billion shares worth 1.1 billion Singapore dollars. There were 290 decliners and 204 gainers.</p><p>Among the actives, Ascendas REIT dipped 0.70 percent, while CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust plunged 2.25 percent, CapitaLand Investment stumbled 1.29 percent, City Developments slipped 0.49 percent, Comfort DelGro gained 0.72 percent, DBS Group lost 1.07 percent, Genting Singapore retreated 1.37 percent, Hongkong Land cratered 2.14 percent, Keppel Corp was down 0.46 percent, Mapletree Commercial Trust tanked 1.61 percent, Mapletree Industrial Trust slid 0.76 percent, Mapletree Logistics Trust dropped 1.18 percent, Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation shed 1.13 percent, SATS eased 0.26 percent, SembCorp Industries declined 1.38 percent, Singapore Exchange fell 0.84 percent, Singapore Technologies Engineering climbed 0.99 percent, SingTel sank 1.17 percent, Thai Beverage tumbled 1.53 percent, United Overseas Bank slumped 1.35 percent, Wilmar International skidded 1.22 percent, Yangzijiang Financial plummeted 2.38 percent and Yangzijiang Shipbuilding was unchanged.</p><p>The lead from Wall Street is negative as the major averages opened sharply lower on Thursday, made back some ground as the day progressed but still ended well in the red.</p><p>The Dow dropped 253.88 points or 0.82 percent to finish at 30,775.43, while the NASDAQ tumbled 149.16 points or 1.33 percent to end at 11,028.74 and the S&amp;P 500 sank 33.45 points or 0.88 percent to close at 3,785.38.</p><p>The early sell-off on Wall Street came amid lingering concerns about the global economic outlook and the possibility of a recession. Central bank chiefs have reaffirmed their resolve to pare inflation despite threats to economic growth.</p><p>A Commerce Department report provided further evidence of an economic slowdown, showing that personal spending increased less than expected in May.</p><p>Crude oil prices moved sharply lower Thursday, extending the pullback seen in the previous session on lingering concerns about the outlook for demand amid the possibility of a recession. West Texas Intermediate for August delivery plunged $4.02 or 3.7 percent to $105.76 a barrel.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1626938412129","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Singapore Bourse May Give Up Support At 3,100 Points</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSingapore Bourse May Give Up Support At 3,100 Points\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-07-01 08:03 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.rttnews.com/3293989/singapore-bourse-may-give-up-support-at-3100-points.aspx?type=acom><strong>RTTNews</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The Singapore stock market has closed lower in consecutive trading days, dropping almost 40 points or 1.3 percent along the way. The Straits Times Index now rests just above the 3,100-point plateau ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.rttnews.com/3293989/singapore-bourse-may-give-up-support-at-3100-points.aspx?type=acom\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"STI.SI":"富时新加坡海峡指数"},"source_url":"https://www.rttnews.com/3293989/singapore-bourse-may-give-up-support-at-3100-points.aspx?type=acom","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1155386517","content_text":"The Singapore stock market has closed lower in consecutive trading days, dropping almost 40 points or 1.3 percent along the way. The Straits Times Index now rests just above the 3,100-point plateau and it's likely to open under pressure again on Friday.The global forecast for the Asian markets calls for continued consolidation, with energy, steel and financial stocks likely to lead the way lower. The European and U.S. markets were down and the Asian markets are tipped to follow suit.The STI finished sharply lower on Thursday following losses from the financial shares, property stocks and industrials.For the day, the index retreated 32.66 points or 1.04 percent to finish at the daily low of 3,102.21 after peaking at 3,138.21. Volume was 1.13 billion shares worth 1.1 billion Singapore dollars. There were 290 decliners and 204 gainers.Among the actives, Ascendas REIT dipped 0.70 percent, while CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust plunged 2.25 percent, CapitaLand Investment stumbled 1.29 percent, City Developments slipped 0.49 percent, Comfort DelGro gained 0.72 percent, DBS Group lost 1.07 percent, Genting Singapore retreated 1.37 percent, Hongkong Land cratered 2.14 percent, Keppel Corp was down 0.46 percent, Mapletree Commercial Trust tanked 1.61 percent, Mapletree Industrial Trust slid 0.76 percent, Mapletree Logistics Trust dropped 1.18 percent, Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation shed 1.13 percent, SATS eased 0.26 percent, SembCorp Industries declined 1.38 percent, Singapore Exchange fell 0.84 percent, Singapore Technologies Engineering climbed 0.99 percent, SingTel sank 1.17 percent, Thai Beverage tumbled 1.53 percent, United Overseas Bank slumped 1.35 percent, Wilmar International skidded 1.22 percent, Yangzijiang Financial plummeted 2.38 percent and Yangzijiang Shipbuilding was unchanged.The lead from Wall Street is negative as the major averages opened sharply lower on Thursday, made back some ground as the day progressed but still ended well in the red.The Dow dropped 253.88 points or 0.82 percent to finish at 30,775.43, while the NASDAQ tumbled 149.16 points or 1.33 percent to end at 11,028.74 and the S&P 500 sank 33.45 points or 0.88 percent to close at 3,785.38.The early sell-off on Wall Street came amid lingering concerns about the global economic outlook and the possibility of a recession. Central bank chiefs have reaffirmed their resolve to pare inflation despite threats to economic growth.A Commerce Department report provided further evidence of an economic slowdown, showing that personal spending increased less than expected in May.Crude oil prices moved sharply lower Thursday, extending the pullback seen in the previous session on lingering concerns about the outlook for demand amid the possibility of a recession. West Texas Intermediate for August delivery plunged $4.02 or 3.7 percent to $105.76 a barrel.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"STI.SI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1391,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9045920120,"gmtCreate":1656552243160,"gmtModify":1676535852191,"author":{"id":"4118888674291832","authorId":"4118888674291832","name":"Hui Yean","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0965e84896827ab38942412eb422457d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4118888674291832","authorIdStr":"4118888674291832"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9045920120","repostId":"1124599394","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1124599394","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1656550652,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1124599394?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-30 08:57","market":"sg","language":"en","title":"Singapore Stocks to Watch: Yanlord, Straits Trading, TTJ, Second Chance, IWOW","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1124599394","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"THE following companies saw new developments that may affect trading of their securities on Thursday","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>THE following companies saw new developments that may affect trading of their securities on Thursday (Jun 30):</p><p><b>Yanlord Land Group(Z25):</b> Yanlord Land Group has pulled in RMB 6.1 billion (S$1.28 billion) in pre-sales from selling all units in the third batch of apartments launched for its Shanghai project, Yanlord Arcadia.</p><p><b>Straits Trading(S20):</b> Straits Real Estate, a unit of mainboard-listed Straits Trading, is acquiring a portfolio of office and industrial buildings and several plots of development land in Gloucester Business Park for £130 million (S$219.5 million).</p><p><b>TTJ(K1Q): </b>THC Venture, which has made a bid to privatise structural steel specialist TTJ Holdings, does not intend to raise its offer price of S$0.23 per share, it said in a Wednesday (Jun 29) bourse filing.</p><p><b>Second Chance(528):</b> BETTER Chance Properties (BCP), a subsidiary of mainboard-listed Second Chance Properties, has granted a potential buyer an option to purchase its Lucky Plaza units for S$13.39 million.</p><p>The potential buyer of the units, #01-56/57/58/59, is Lew Chee Beng and/or his nominee, Second Chance disclosed in a Wednesday (Jun 29) bourse filing. The option will expire on Aug 1. An option fee of 1 per cent of the sale price has been paid to BCP.</p><p><b>IWOW(NXR):</b> Tracetogether token maker iWOW Technology saw its net profit inch up 4 per cent to S$3.9 million for FY2022 ended March, on the back of growth across all its business segments.</p><p>iWOW declared a final dividend of 0.36 Singapore cent a share. Excluding one-off expenses from its initial public offering in April, its net profit grew 36 per cent to S$5 million for the year.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Singapore Stocks to Watch: Yanlord, Straits Trading, TTJ, Second Chance, IWOW</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSingapore Stocks to Watch: Yanlord, Straits Trading, TTJ, Second Chance, IWOW\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-06-30 08:57</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>THE following companies saw new developments that may affect trading of their securities on Thursday (Jun 30):</p><p><b>Yanlord Land Group(Z25):</b> Yanlord Land Group has pulled in RMB 6.1 billion (S$1.28 billion) in pre-sales from selling all units in the third batch of apartments launched for its Shanghai project, Yanlord Arcadia.</p><p><b>Straits Trading(S20):</b> Straits Real Estate, a unit of mainboard-listed Straits Trading, is acquiring a portfolio of office and industrial buildings and several plots of development land in Gloucester Business Park for £130 million (S$219.5 million).</p><p><b>TTJ(K1Q): </b>THC Venture, which has made a bid to privatise structural steel specialist TTJ Holdings, does not intend to raise its offer price of S$0.23 per share, it said in a Wednesday (Jun 29) bourse filing.</p><p><b>Second Chance(528):</b> BETTER Chance Properties (BCP), a subsidiary of mainboard-listed Second Chance Properties, has granted a potential buyer an option to purchase its Lucky Plaza units for S$13.39 million.</p><p>The potential buyer of the units, #01-56/57/58/59, is Lew Chee Beng and/or his nominee, Second Chance disclosed in a Wednesday (Jun 29) bourse filing. The option will expire on Aug 1. An option fee of 1 per cent of the sale price has been paid to BCP.</p><p><b>IWOW(NXR):</b> Tracetogether token maker iWOW Technology saw its net profit inch up 4 per cent to S$3.9 million for FY2022 ended March, on the back of growth across all its business segments.</p><p>iWOW declared a final dividend of 0.36 Singapore cent a share. Excluding one-off expenses from its initial public offering in April, its net profit grew 36 per cent to S$5 million for the year.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"S20.SI":"海峡贸易有限公司.","NXR.SI":"爱物联科技","Z25.SI":"仁恒置地集团有限公司"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1124599394","content_text":"THE following companies saw new developments that may affect trading of their securities on Thursday (Jun 30):Yanlord Land Group(Z25): Yanlord Land Group has pulled in RMB 6.1 billion (S$1.28 billion) in pre-sales from selling all units in the third batch of apartments launched for its Shanghai project, Yanlord Arcadia.Straits Trading(S20): Straits Real Estate, a unit of mainboard-listed Straits Trading, is acquiring a portfolio of office and industrial buildings and several plots of development land in Gloucester Business Park for £130 million (S$219.5 million).TTJ(K1Q): THC Venture, which has made a bid to privatise structural steel specialist TTJ Holdings, does not intend to raise its offer price of S$0.23 per share, it said in a Wednesday (Jun 29) bourse filing.Second Chance(528): BETTER Chance Properties (BCP), a subsidiary of mainboard-listed Second Chance Properties, has granted a potential buyer an option to purchase its Lucky Plaza units for S$13.39 million.The potential buyer of the units, #01-56/57/58/59, is Lew Chee Beng and/or his nominee, Second Chance disclosed in a Wednesday (Jun 29) bourse filing. The option will expire on Aug 1. An option fee of 1 per cent of the sale price has been paid to BCP.IWOW(NXR): Tracetogether token maker iWOW Technology saw its net profit inch up 4 per cent to S$3.9 million for FY2022 ended March, on the back of growth across all its business segments.iWOW declared a final dividend of 0.36 Singapore cent a share. Excluding one-off expenses from its initial public offering in April, its net profit grew 36 per cent to S$5 million for the year.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"Z25.SI":0.9,"528.SI":0.9,"S20.SI":0.9,"K1Q.SI":0.9,"NXR.SI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1287,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9045962510,"gmtCreate":1656552018430,"gmtModify":1676535852113,"author":{"id":"4118888674291832","authorId":"4118888674291832","name":"Hui Yean","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0965e84896827ab38942412eb422457d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4118888674291832","authorIdStr":"4118888674291832"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9045962510","repostId":"1156002058","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1156002058","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1656549444,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1156002058?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-30 08:37","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Central Bankers Write Requiem for Low-Inflation Strategies","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1156002058","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"Powell, Lagarde, Bailey warn of longer-lasting inflation shockNew world of deglobalization may requi","content":"<div>\n<p>Powell, Lagarde, Bailey warn of longer-lasting inflation shockNew world of deglobalization may require tighter policy biasRisks are mounting that the world is shifting to a regime of higher inflation,...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-29/central-bankers-write-requiem-for-low-inflation-strategies?srnd=markets-vp\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Central Bankers Write Requiem for Low-Inflation Strategies</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCentral Bankers Write Requiem for Low-Inflation Strategies\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-06-30 08:37 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-29/central-bankers-write-requiem-for-low-inflation-strategies?srnd=markets-vp><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Powell, Lagarde, Bailey warn of longer-lasting inflation shockNew world of deglobalization may require tighter policy biasRisks are mounting that the world is shifting to a regime of higher inflation,...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-29/central-bankers-write-requiem-for-low-inflation-strategies?srnd=markets-vp\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-29/central-bankers-write-requiem-for-low-inflation-strategies?srnd=markets-vp","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1156002058","content_text":"Powell, Lagarde, Bailey warn of longer-lasting inflation shockNew world of deglobalization may require tighter policy biasRisks are mounting that the world is shifting to a regime of higher inflation, forcing central bankers to tear up their playbook of the last 20 years.That was a key message from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and his European counterparts on Wednesday as they debated how to tackle persistent price pressures and slower growth.“I don’t think we are going to go back to that environment of low inflation,” European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde told the ECB’s annual forum in Sintra, Portugal.“There are forces that have been unleashed as a result of the pandemic, as a result of this massive geopolitical shock we are facing now that are going to change the picture and the landscape within which we operate,” she said during a 90-minute panel discussion moderated by Bloomberg Television’s Francine Lacqua.Her comments, alongside those of Powell and Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, mean a potential upheaval of monetary policy practice. For years, the critical foe facing central bankers was too-low inflation -- pushing them to deploy near-zero interest rates and massive bond purchases to lift their economies during recessions and feeble recoveries.The common enemy now is sizzling price pressures, which have surged to 40-year highs in the US as pandemic-tangled supply chains and Russia - Ukraine war sink predictions they will prove fleeting, forcing central bankers to hit the brakes: The Fed raised interest rates by 75 basis points this month -- the largest increase since 1994 -- and signaled it could do the same in July.For Powell and his colleagues, a conclusion that underlying inflation is at risk of drifting higher and becoming unmoored from the Fed’s 2% target could spell an even-more aggressive policy pivot than suggested by their June forecast.That outlook -- which already shows the most hawkish Fed action since the 1990s, projects rates rising another 175 basis points this year and peaking between 3.75% and 4% in 2023. The following year, however, officials pencil in modest rate cuts as growth moderates and inflation turns back toward target.Policy makers “are saying there is going to be some pain and we may not get the soft landing we want, but having this high inflation and high inflation expectations is worse,” said Derek Tang, an economist at LH Meyer in Washington. “This is a major shift” and may forestall rate cuts in 2024.De-GlobalizationThe Fed chief warned of a “re-division of the world into competing geopolitical and economic camps, and a reversal of globalization” that could result in lower productivity and growth.The risk of longer-lasting scarcity as the world reorders can already be seen. Inflation rates in the U.S, U.K, and the eurozone are far above their targets and the worry is that they could be persistently so as global trading and production patterns reconfigure.“It’s how you deal with a series of large supply shocks with no air gap between them, which of course feeds through into expectations,” Bailey said. “Put them all together, they’re not transitory in the traditional sense of the term.”For decades, advanced economies enjoyed a tailwind from globalization. In the terminology of central banking, inflation expectations were anchored and that allowed central banks to allow labor markets to run hotter. Access to off-shore labor also gutted worker bargaining power, further undercutting inflation but at a social cost as wages stagnated.“The last ten years were so far the height of the disinflationary forces that we faced,” Powell said. “That world seems to be gone now at least for the time being. We are living with different forces now and have to think about monetary policy in a very different way.”The Fed in 2020 reorientated its policy approach to tackle the problem of too-low inflation, adopting a strategy that committed to not reacting preemptively to forecasts of higher inflation as the labor market tightened and redefining the full-employment side of its mandate to be broad and inclusive.Powell acknowledged that the current environment raised questions about whether this approach was still fit for purpose.“If you want to know the lessons to be learned of the last ten years, look at our framework. Those were all based on a low inflation environment that we had. And now we are in this new world where it is quite different with higher inflation and many supply shocks and strong inflationary forces around the world.”Central bankers worry that unrelenting price increases could shift households and businesses into a state where expectations are based on more recent inflation experience.“To the extent that there are a series of shocks, it does become rational for people to pay more and more attention,” Powell said. “The clock is kind of running” on how long the Fed can count on low expectations before they move higher. “We will prevent that from happening.”In earlier remarks on Wednesday in Sintra, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said officials now face an asymmetric choice, warning that the error of assuming inflation expectations are well anchored when they aren’t is more costly than tightening policy too aggressively to make sure they stay that way.Jens Weidmann, former President of Germany’s Bundesbank, made a similar argument at a separate event earlier this week in Basel, cautioning against the gradualism that had been a hallmark of central banking until this year.“The more persistent the shock proves to be, the more the delay in monetary tightening increases the risk that companies, households and workers will start to expect that high inflation is here to stay,” Weidmannsaidon June 26.  “In order to prevent de-anchoring, the persistence of inflation should be overstated rather than understated, and a forceful monetary policy response is advisable precisely when uncertainty about it is particularly high.”Powell implicitly acknowledged the asymmetric choice -- conceding that officials could err and tip the economy into a recession, but arguing that was the lesser of two evils.“We are committed to and will succeed in getting inflation down to 2%,” he said. “The process is highly likely to involve some pain. But the worse pain would be from failing to address this high inflation and allowing it to become persistent.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1056,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9042518411,"gmtCreate":1656497204633,"gmtModify":1676535840654,"author":{"id":"4118888674291832","authorId":"4118888674291832","name":"Hui Yean","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0965e84896827ab38942412eb422457d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4118888674291832","authorIdStr":"4118888674291832"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanks for sharing","listText":"Thanks for sharing","text":"Thanks for sharing","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9042518411","repostId":"1148096186","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1148096186","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1656486106,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1148096186?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-29 15:01","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir: This Is What A Rare Buying Opportunity Looks Like","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148096186","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryShares of Palantir have dropped 50% year to date and are now trading below their IPO price.Bu","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Shares of Palantir have dropped 50% year to date and are now trading below their IPO price.</li><li>Business fundamentals have continued to march forward, completely disconnected to the stock crash. In particular, Palantir continues to grow commercial revenue at a 50%+ y/y pace.</li><li>Products like Foundry, with massive TAMs, have the ambition of taking over AWS&#39; dominance in enterprise software.</li><li>Palantir is trading cheaply at ~9x forward revenue, especially as it expects to continue 30%+ y/y revenue growth for the next three years.</li></ul><p>If you were to ask me for a single stock I would choose to invest in for a year-end rebound, I wouldn&#39;t hesitate to name Palantir (NYSE:PLTR). This big data giant, a fabled software company for its close relationships with the U.S. government (particularly the armed forces), has seen a tremendous stock market reversal this year. Dropping quite suddenly from being one of the most celebrated and richly-valued tech stocks in the industry, Palantir has now shed half of its value.</p><p>It&#39;s time, in my view, for investors to take a hard second look at this name.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/435db134f2fc8dbf9289c062fbad1864\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Data byYCharts</p><p><b>What&#39;s going on with Palantir? Slightly soft guidance doesn&#39;t justify the massive share price collapse</b></p><p>First of all, let&#39;s address the recent goings-on with Palantir. If you look at the stock price chart above, you&#39;ll notice that Palantir&#39;s correction accelerated in May, after the company released Q1 earnings results and updated its guidance. Two things are at play here: of course, the broader stock market correction and &#34;risk off&#34; attitude have hammered high-growth stocks like Palantir.</p><p>Separately outside of that, investors reacted harshly to Palantir&#39;s Q2 guidance outlook.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e8c07bb7c75548a94a1abbbf47d3b54\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"349\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Palantir outlook(Palantir Q1 earnings deck)</p><p>For Q2, Palantir is guiding to &#34;base case&#34; revenue of $470 million. This represents 30% y/y growth, and was below the $483.8 million (+34% y/y growth) that Wall Street had hoped for.</p><p>The key thing here, however: <b>Palantir has a &#34;wide range&#34; of potential upside drivers to this forecast.</b> The company has notoriously long offered very flimsy guidance targets relative to other companies and frequently sets a low bar for itself to cross. This guidance update should not be read as any meaningful slowdown in Palantir&#39;s go-to-market performance.</p><p><b>The long-term bull case is still vibrant</b></p><p>Wall Street and most investors are famously short-term oriented, but with a company like Palantir, we should be far more interested in the longer-term bullish thesis.</p><p>It&#39;s important to recognize that Palantir remains one of the leading software companies in big data and AI. Since its IPO only two years ago, the company has rolled out a slew of new products:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/669be31c4037d75a919175406729f826\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"355\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Palantir new products(Palantir Q1 earnings deck)</p><p>Though not a new product, the product we should be watching closely is Palantir Foundry, which is the company&#39;s PaaS (platform-as-a-service) offering for both government and corporate clients to build and deploy applications. Palantir has ambitions of Foundry overtaking AWS as the central hub for app development. Per COO Shyam Sankar&#39;s prepared remarks on the Q1 earnings call:</p><blockquote>The greatest opportunity for Foundry continues to be the application development infrastructure platform. We believe that Foundry will become the place that you go to build the applications of the future. With AWS or Azure with their highly unopinionated collection of services, most of the work remains in front of you to get to value. And all of that onus is on you, the customer, to get to that value.</blockquote><blockquote>With Foundry, you&#39;re 90% of the way there on day 1. Software-defined data integration, native multi-tenancy for your applications, the OPIs, version pipelines, applications, artifacts, to just name some of the components, that make Foundry work from the start.</blockquote><blockquote>That&#39;s why U.S. Space Forces’, Kobayashi Maru factory realized their ambition, building 13 operationally accepted applications on top of Foundry in months while sunsetting legacy $100 million-plus programs. That&#39;s why Airbus rolled out an internally developed supply chain network control tower, a suite built on top of Foundry&#39;s application development infrastructure. And this set of applications, it mitigates supply chain issues and is working towards saving hundreds of millions of euros annually by speeding up production against existing fixed capacity and reducing inventory across all parts.</blockquote><blockquote>What AWS was in the last decade, Foundry will be in the next.&#34;</blockquote><p>Here, in my view, are all the key reasons to be bullish on Palantir for the long haul:</p><ul><li><b>Big data is a massive discipline that can be applied in nearly limitless ways.</b> Palantir isn&#39;t a software company that serves only one or a limited set of use cases. Data and inferences that can be made from data are prevalent in just about everything: which explains why Palantir is such a powerful tool for both public and private sector clients.</li><li><b>Growth at scale.</b> Despite being at a ~$2 billion annual revenue scale, Palantir continues to deliver 30-40% y/y revenue growth, and its long-term outlook calls for the company to be able to sustain growth rates in excess of 30% y/y through at least 2025. Few companies are able to achieve this kind of growth at scale, and it&#39;s a testament to the wide applicability of Palantir&#39;s products and the humongous clientele it has drawn (in particular, the U.S. Army).</li><li><b>Stepping up go-to-market momentum.</b> Palantir is chasing growth across a wide variety of channels. The company has stepped up its sales hiring this year, a nod at the broad market opportunity it has and the need for more territory coverage. Palantir also has deepened relationships with ISVs (integrated service vendors) that can resell Palantir&#39;s products without its involvement and offer additional coverage that Palantir&#39;s direct sales force can&#39;t handle.</li><li><b>One foot in the public sector, one foot in private</b>. Palantir made its name on being a large federal government contractor, but its products are just as compelling to an enterprise segment that is growing ever more obsessed with the value of big data. Most software companies start off as primarily dealing with enterprise buyers, and then hopefully getting FedRAMP certification to sell into public sector clients later. Palantir did the reverse: but now, its momentum with Fortune 100 companies is continuing to grow, and customer adds are continuing to trend at an impressive pace.</li><li><b>Free cash flow.</b> Though not yet profitable from a GAAP standpoint, Palantir continues to exceed internal expectations for free cash flow, which means the business is self-financing (a departure from many other rapid-growth software companies that continue to need to raise capital to finance their losses).</li></ul><p>In short, focus on the long-term expansion potential here: Q2 guidance is just noise, a drop in the bucket.</p><p><b>Formidable growth continues</b></p><p>Nor should investors get the impression that Palantir&#39;s growth in recent quarters has been lagging, either. One highlight to extract from Palantir&#39;s Q1 earnings results: total commercial revenue grew 54% y/y to $205 million. As seen in the chart below, that represents four straight quarters of acceleration:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/833acc59cf63e20602348b8cb23afb9b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"349\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Palantir commercial revenue performance(Palantir Q1 earnings deck)</p><p>The company has also broadened its customer counts. At present, Palantir&#39;s business revolves primarily around large government contracts and mega blue-chip corporations. But with the company stepping up its go-to-market activities on the commercial side, the mid-market represents another major growth leg for Palantir that it has not yet tapped into. In Q1 alone, Palantir grew its customer base by 40 customers, or 17%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2cdeb72f8b2a25fe7b7a3a8320408f5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"349\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Palantir customer growth(Palantir Q1 earnings deck)</p><p>For now, Palantir&#39;s growth metrics are still vibrant (and note as well that with 124% net revenue retention rates, there&#39;s plenty of revenue expansion happening within the existing install base too). The fact that the company is expecting to continue pushing for 30%+ y/y growth through 2025 is also quite rare for a company of its scale.</p><p><b>GAAP margins are drifting toward breakeven</b></p><p>One final point to extract from Palantir&#39;s latest Q1 results: though investors flagged Palantir&#39;s high GAAP losses at the time of its IPO, these margins are slowly converging toward break-even. In Q1, GAAP operating margins boosted to -9%, versus -33% in the year-ago Q1 (helped in no small part by the devaluation of Palantir&#39;s stock, which reduces stock-comp expenses on paper):</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db7c309dbda404642f0722d408632b6c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"351\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Palantir margin trends(Palantir Q1 earnings deck)</p><p><b>Valuation and key takeaways</b></p><p>In spite of Palantir&#39;s strengths and all its long-term potential, the stock is currently trading at what I consider to be an unmissable bargain. At current share prices just below $10, Palantir trades at a $19.70 billion market cap. After we net off the $2.52 billion of cash on Palantir&#39;s most recent balance sheet, its resulting <b>enterprise value is $17.16 billion.</b></p><p>For the current fiscal year FY22, Wall Street analysts are expecting revenue of $1.99 billion (+29% y/y), and for next year FY23, consensus stands at $2.56 billion (+29% y/y). Both estimates, by the way, fall short of Palantir&#39;s stated guidance of maintaining 30%+ growth through 2025 (and so far, Palantir has never backed down on a commitment). Nevertheless, at Wall Street&#39;s consensus figures, the stock trades at:</p><ul><li><b>8.6x EV/FY22 revenue</b></li><li><b>6.7x EV/FY23 revenue</b></li></ul><p>There was a time when A) Palantir traded north of &gt;25x current-year revenue, and B) when software companies with mere 15-20% y/y growth traded at a 9-10x revenue multiple. Though I&#39;m not exactly calling for tech valuation multiples to revert to the excesses of 2021, I think Palantir looks incredibly cheap given its target to sustain 30% y/y growth for the long term.</p><p><b>The bottom line here:</b> Palantir is a rare combination of strong execution, unparalleled branding and reputation, a wide basket of massive-TAM products, and reasonable valuation. Don&#39;t miss this buying opportunity.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir: This Is What A Rare Buying Opportunity Looks Like</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: This Is What A Rare Buying Opportunity Looks Like\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-06-29 15:01 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4520635-palantir-stock-rare-buying-opportunity><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryShares of Palantir have dropped 50% year to date and are now trading below their IPO price.Business fundamentals have continued to march forward, completely disconnected to the stock crash. In ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4520635-palantir-stock-rare-buying-opportunity\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4520635-palantir-stock-rare-buying-opportunity","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148096186","content_text":"SummaryShares of Palantir have dropped 50% year to date and are now trading below their IPO price.Business fundamentals have continued to march forward, completely disconnected to the stock crash. In particular, Palantir continues to grow commercial revenue at a 50%+ y/y pace.Products like Foundry, with massive TAMs, have the ambition of taking over AWS' dominance in enterprise software.Palantir is trading cheaply at ~9x forward revenue, especially as it expects to continue 30%+ y/y revenue growth for the next three years.If you were to ask me for a single stock I would choose to invest in for a year-end rebound, I wouldn't hesitate to name Palantir (NYSE:PLTR). This big data giant, a fabled software company for its close relationships with the U.S. government (particularly the armed forces), has seen a tremendous stock market reversal this year. Dropping quite suddenly from being one of the most celebrated and richly-valued tech stocks in the industry, Palantir has now shed half of its value.It's time, in my view, for investors to take a hard second look at this name.Data byYChartsWhat's going on with Palantir? Slightly soft guidance doesn't justify the massive share price collapseFirst of all, let's address the recent goings-on with Palantir. If you look at the stock price chart above, you'll notice that Palantir's correction accelerated in May, after the company released Q1 earnings results and updated its guidance. Two things are at play here: of course, the broader stock market correction and \"risk off\" attitude have hammered high-growth stocks like Palantir.Separately outside of that, investors reacted harshly to Palantir's Q2 guidance outlook.Palantir outlook(Palantir Q1 earnings deck)For Q2, Palantir is guiding to \"base case\" revenue of $470 million. This represents 30% y/y growth, and was below the $483.8 million (+34% y/y growth) that Wall Street had hoped for.The key thing here, however: Palantir has a \"wide range\" of potential upside drivers to this forecast. The company has notoriously long offered very flimsy guidance targets relative to other companies and frequently sets a low bar for itself to cross. This guidance update should not be read as any meaningful slowdown in Palantir's go-to-market performance.The long-term bull case is still vibrantWall Street and most investors are famously short-term oriented, but with a company like Palantir, we should be far more interested in the longer-term bullish thesis.It's important to recognize that Palantir remains one of the leading software companies in big data and AI. Since its IPO only two years ago, the company has rolled out a slew of new products:Palantir new products(Palantir Q1 earnings deck)Though not a new product, the product we should be watching closely is Palantir Foundry, which is the company's PaaS (platform-as-a-service) offering for both government and corporate clients to build and deploy applications. Palantir has ambitions of Foundry overtaking AWS as the central hub for app development. Per COO Shyam Sankar's prepared remarks on the Q1 earnings call:The greatest opportunity for Foundry continues to be the application development infrastructure platform. We believe that Foundry will become the place that you go to build the applications of the future. With AWS or Azure with their highly unopinionated collection of services, most of the work remains in front of you to get to value. And all of that onus is on you, the customer, to get to that value.With Foundry, you're 90% of the way there on day 1. Software-defined data integration, native multi-tenancy for your applications, the OPIs, version pipelines, applications, artifacts, to just name some of the components, that make Foundry work from the start.That's why U.S. Space Forces’, Kobayashi Maru factory realized their ambition, building 13 operationally accepted applications on top of Foundry in months while sunsetting legacy $100 million-plus programs. That's why Airbus rolled out an internally developed supply chain network control tower, a suite built on top of Foundry's application development infrastructure. And this set of applications, it mitigates supply chain issues and is working towards saving hundreds of millions of euros annually by speeding up production against existing fixed capacity and reducing inventory across all parts.What AWS was in the last decade, Foundry will be in the next.\"Here, in my view, are all the key reasons to be bullish on Palantir for the long haul:Big data is a massive discipline that can be applied in nearly limitless ways. Palantir isn't a software company that serves only one or a limited set of use cases. Data and inferences that can be made from data are prevalent in just about everything: which explains why Palantir is such a powerful tool for both public and private sector clients.Growth at scale. Despite being at a ~$2 billion annual revenue scale, Palantir continues to deliver 30-40% y/y revenue growth, and its long-term outlook calls for the company to be able to sustain growth rates in excess of 30% y/y through at least 2025. Few companies are able to achieve this kind of growth at scale, and it's a testament to the wide applicability of Palantir's products and the humongous clientele it has drawn (in particular, the U.S. Army).Stepping up go-to-market momentum. Palantir is chasing growth across a wide variety of channels. The company has stepped up its sales hiring this year, a nod at the broad market opportunity it has and the need for more territory coverage. Palantir also has deepened relationships with ISVs (integrated service vendors) that can resell Palantir's products without its involvement and offer additional coverage that Palantir's direct sales force can't handle.One foot in the public sector, one foot in private. Palantir made its name on being a large federal government contractor, but its products are just as compelling to an enterprise segment that is growing ever more obsessed with the value of big data. Most software companies start off as primarily dealing with enterprise buyers, and then hopefully getting FedRAMP certification to sell into public sector clients later. Palantir did the reverse: but now, its momentum with Fortune 100 companies is continuing to grow, and customer adds are continuing to trend at an impressive pace.Free cash flow. Though not yet profitable from a GAAP standpoint, Palantir continues to exceed internal expectations for free cash flow, which means the business is self-financing (a departure from many other rapid-growth software companies that continue to need to raise capital to finance their losses).In short, focus on the long-term expansion potential here: Q2 guidance is just noise, a drop in the bucket.Formidable growth continuesNor should investors get the impression that Palantir's growth in recent quarters has been lagging, either. One highlight to extract from Palantir's Q1 earnings results: total commercial revenue grew 54% y/y to $205 million. As seen in the chart below, that represents four straight quarters of acceleration:Palantir commercial revenue performance(Palantir Q1 earnings deck)The company has also broadened its customer counts. At present, Palantir's business revolves primarily around large government contracts and mega blue-chip corporations. But with the company stepping up its go-to-market activities on the commercial side, the mid-market represents another major growth leg for Palantir that it has not yet tapped into. In Q1 alone, Palantir grew its customer base by 40 customers, or 17%.Palantir customer growth(Palantir Q1 earnings deck)For now, Palantir's growth metrics are still vibrant (and note as well that with 124% net revenue retention rates, there's plenty of revenue expansion happening within the existing install base too). The fact that the company is expecting to continue pushing for 30%+ y/y growth through 2025 is also quite rare for a company of its scale.GAAP margins are drifting toward breakevenOne final point to extract from Palantir's latest Q1 results: though investors flagged Palantir's high GAAP losses at the time of its IPO, these margins are slowly converging toward break-even. In Q1, GAAP operating margins boosted to -9%, versus -33% in the year-ago Q1 (helped in no small part by the devaluation of Palantir's stock, which reduces stock-comp expenses on paper):Palantir margin trends(Palantir Q1 earnings deck)Valuation and key takeawaysIn spite of Palantir's strengths and all its long-term potential, the stock is currently trading at what I consider to be an unmissable bargain. At current share prices just below $10, Palantir trades at a $19.70 billion market cap. After we net off the $2.52 billion of cash on Palantir's most recent balance sheet, its resulting enterprise value is $17.16 billion.For the current fiscal year FY22, Wall Street analysts are expecting revenue of $1.99 billion (+29% y/y), and for next year FY23, consensus stands at $2.56 billion (+29% y/y). Both estimates, by the way, fall short of Palantir's stated guidance of maintaining 30%+ growth through 2025 (and so far, Palantir has never backed down on a commitment). Nevertheless, at Wall Street's consensus figures, the stock trades at:8.6x EV/FY22 revenue6.7x EV/FY23 revenueThere was a time when A) Palantir traded north of >25x current-year revenue, and B) when software companies with mere 15-20% y/y growth traded at a 9-10x revenue multiple. Though I'm not exactly calling for tech valuation multiples to revert to the excesses of 2021, I think Palantir looks incredibly cheap given its target to sustain 30% y/y growth for the long term.The bottom line here: Palantir is a rare combination of strong execution, unparalleled branding and reputation, a wide basket of massive-TAM products, and reasonable valuation. Don't miss this buying opportunity.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PLTR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":768,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9042518026,"gmtCreate":1656497103465,"gmtModify":1676535840654,"author":{"id":"4118888674291832","authorId":"4118888674291832","name":"Hui Yean","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0965e84896827ab38942412eb422457d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4118888674291832","authorIdStr":"4118888674291832"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9042518026","repostId":"2247335031","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2247335031","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1656515616,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2247335031?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-29 23:13","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Alibaba: 5 Reasons To Buy, 2 Reasons To Sell","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2247335031","media":"Seekingalpha","summary":"IntroductionAlibaba (NYSE:BABA) (OTCPK:BABAF) is one of the most contentious holdings in my portfoli","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2>Introduction</h2><p>Alibaba (NYSE:BABA) (OTCPK:BABAF) is <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> of the most contentious holdings in my portfolio. For starters, Alibaba is the only Chinese stock I own [having initiated a small position in mid-November 2021]. Secondly, I believe that Alibaba&#39;s stock is ridiculously cheap based on its business fundamentals. However, I am still not entirely convinced about this investment due to macroeconomic and regulatory headwinds in China. The consensus noise in broader investment media is very bearish for Chinese tech stocks, and I don&#39;t think the sentiment will improve anytime soon.</p><p>After analyzing Alibaba&#39;s Q4 numbers, I performed an exercise to nail down the bullish and bearish arguments for a long-term investment in Alibaba. In today&#39;s note, we will be discussing five reasons to buy and two reasons to sell Alibaba&#39;s stock at current levels. Here we go.</p><h2>5 Reasons To Buy Alibaba</h2><ul><li><b>Solid Business Fundamentals</b></li></ul><p>In Q4, Alibaba reported an earnings miss; however, revenue came in stronger-than-expected at $32.1B (vs. analyst estimates of ~$31B). As you may know, the Chinese economy is still suffering from draconian lockdowns, inflation, and slowing consumer demand. Despite all the noise around its business, Alibaba&#39;s fundamentals remain robust. After experiencing a pull forward in demand during the first wave of COVID, the fact that Alibaba is still growing its revenues is heartening. With inflation causing intense margin pressures, Alibaba&#39;s gross and operating margins declined considerably in Q4; however, these numbers are still very healthy. As the Chinese economy opens up and resumes growth, I think Alibaba&#39;s revenues and margins will start expanding once again.</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35f832b08e66d361bbb5c51f7355f977\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>YCharts</p><p>In recent quarters, Alibaba&#39;s margins have come under pressure, which in turn has led to compression in free cash flow generation. For Q4, Alibaba reported a negative free cash flow of -$1.18B; however, if you look at historical trends, Alibaba has burnt cash in Q4 for the last three years, and this year&#39;s burn is the smallest. At the end of the day, Alibaba is still a free cash flow machine.</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4b8f7d033c114324988b2dc1f3407c8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"413\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>YCharts</p><p>With roughly $50B of net cash, Alibaba has little to no liquidity or bankruptcy risk. Due to a violent valuation reset in its stock, Alibaba&#39;s management has adopted a more aggressive capital return program (upsizing its share buyback authorization to $25B in March 2022).</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52a65cd79cb85db43d377e4030d3f406\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"413\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>YCharts</p><p>According to Alibaba&#39;s Deputy CFO, Toby Xu -</p><blockquote>The upsized share buyback underscores our confidence in Alibaba&#39;s long-term, sustainable growth potential and value creation. Alibaba&#39;s stock price does not fairly reflect the company&#39;s value given our robust financial health and expansion plans.</blockquote><p>I agree with Toby. Let&#39;s find out why.</p><ul><li><b>Dirt Cheap Valuations</b></li></ul><p>When I rated Alibaba a strong buy before its earnings report, the stock was trading at a ridiculously low P/FCF multiple of ~8.55x. I must reiterate that I had no clue as to what Alibaba would report in Q4 or how the stock would react to these numbers. However, the valuation made Alibaba a no-brainer, and it still is a no-brainer (despite the +40% move in Alibaba&#39;s stock). Today, Alibaba is trading at ~14x P/FCF (well below the 3-yr median P/FCF of ~21x).</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97154790c41df6813966a9c0226a5d43\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"413\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>YCharts</p><p>Honestly, I don&#39;t think Alibaba&#39;s Q4 numbers justify the quick 40% bounce we have seen in its stock over the last few days; however, Alibaba&#39;s valuation remains depressed, and the upside move may continue in the near future (quantitative factor data and technical charts suggest so).</p><ul><li><b>Improving Quant Factor Grades</b></li></ul><p>After the recent run-up in Alibaba&#39;s stock, its momentum factor grade has improved from &#34;C-&#34; to &#34;B+&#34;. I previously highlighted the positive trend in Alibaba&#39;s momentum factor grade as a potential sign of a turnaround in the stock. While momentum may continue to carry the stock higher towards the $140-$150 range, Alibaba&#39;s factor grades for valuation and (earnings) revisions are getting weaker.</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c7da606c3f053f0884d0de15d76984d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"251\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha Quant Rating</p><p>With profitability and growth factor grades holding up, Alibaba&#39;s stock could ride the momentum train higher. Furthermore, Alibaba&#39;s fundamentals are likely to rebound in the coming 4-8 quarters. Hence, I view the current quantitative factor grades for Alibaba favorably, despite an overall rating of &#39;Hold&#39; [3.30] on SA&#39;s Quant Rating System.</p><ul><li><b>A Trend Reversal On The Technical Charts</b></li></ul><p>Alibaba&#39;s technical chart is showing signs of a major trend reversal with a breakout from its downward falling wedge pattern. While I don&#39;t expect Alibaba&#39;s stock to go up in a straight line, I will be looking for the stock to recapture its 200-EMA of ~$130 to confirm the trend reversal.</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da230de0660c27b79cb293f0e3a75813\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"440\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>On 25th May 2022, I wrote the following:</p><blockquote>As of today, Alibaba is still stuck in the downward wedge pattern; however, there are signs of RSI divergence, and the MACD is also moving up slowly as the stock hovers above a demand zone (shown on the chart). While I do not see a trend reversal just yet, I think the technical setup is improving. A breakout to the upside could send Alibaba back up to $140-$150 in quick order.</blockquote><p>Today, the RSI and MACD divergence that we observed a month ago is far more evident. While this bounce may yet fizzle out in the coming weeks and months, I think the technical setup is favorable for bulls (especially for ones with a long-term investment horizon).</p><ul><li><b>Signs of regulatory policy relaxation</b></li></ul><p>Over the past few months, the Chinese government has been seemingly easing up on its ongoing technology crackdown. Out of the five reasons I laid out in support of buying Alibaba, I think policy relaxation is probably the weakest one due to its abstract nature. However, if we do see a policy reversal from the Chinese government or even an easing of its technology crackdown, Alibaba could get rid of a major overhang on its stock, and if the negative sentiment abates, the stock could re-rate higher to a normalized valuation multiple.</p><h2>2 Reasons To Sell Alibaba</h2><p>Considering Alibaba&#39;s healthy fundamentals, dirt-cheap valuation, improving quant factor grades, and bullish technical setup, I don&#39;t think there is a straightforward, data-driven bear thesis against Alibaba. However, if I had to look for reasons to sell Alibaba at this throwaway price, they would have to be extrinsic reasons.</p><ul><li><b>Poor Macroeconomic Environment</b></li></ul><p>Like most businesses, Alibaba is exposed to macroeconomic factors. With most of its revenues coming from China, Alibaba&#39;s sales growth and margins could remain unimpressive for the foreseeable future. If Alibaba&#39;s free cash flows were to contract further in the event of a recession, the stock could go lower even if multiples were to return to normalized levels.</p><ul><li><b>Potential Delisting in the US</b></li></ul><p>While Alibaba has not been named as a (potential) violator of the HFCAA (Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act) by the US SEC, the risk of potential delisting from US exchanges is non-zero for Alibaba. Institutional investors like Blackrock have exited Alibaba&#39;s ADRs and invested in Alibaba directly on Hong Kong exchanges. In my view, a potential delisting of ADRs is not a significant risk for Alibaba, but if you wish to get ahead of this risk, you should look to sell Alibaba ADRs [and consider investing in Alibaba on Hong Kong exchanges].</p><h2>Bottom Line</h2><p>Even after a rapid 40%+ move off its lows, fundamental, quantitative, and technical data render Alibaba&#39;s stock a &#34;Buy&#34;. As we saw today, the good in Alibaba (reasons to buy) far outweighs the bad (reasons to sell). Hence, I continue to be bullish on Alibaba.</p><p><b>Key Takeaway:</b> I rate Alibaba a strong buy at $117.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba: 5 Reasons To Buy, 2 Reasons To Sell</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba: 5 Reasons To Buy, 2 Reasons To Sell\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-06-29 23:13 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4520712-alibaba-stock-5-reasons-buy-2-reasons-sell><strong>Seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>IntroductionAlibaba (NYSE:BABA) (OTCPK:BABAF) is one of the most contentious holdings in my portfolio. For starters, Alibaba is the only Chinese stock I own [having initiated a small position in mid-...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4520712-alibaba-stock-5-reasons-buy-2-reasons-sell\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","09988":"阿里巴巴-W"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4520712-alibaba-stock-5-reasons-buy-2-reasons-sell","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2247335031","content_text":"IntroductionAlibaba (NYSE:BABA) (OTCPK:BABAF) is one of the most contentious holdings in my portfolio. For starters, Alibaba is the only Chinese stock I own [having initiated a small position in mid-November 2021]. Secondly, I believe that Alibaba's stock is ridiculously cheap based on its business fundamentals. However, I am still not entirely convinced about this investment due to macroeconomic and regulatory headwinds in China. The consensus noise in broader investment media is very bearish for Chinese tech stocks, and I don't think the sentiment will improve anytime soon.After analyzing Alibaba's Q4 numbers, I performed an exercise to nail down the bullish and bearish arguments for a long-term investment in Alibaba. In today's note, we will be discussing five reasons to buy and two reasons to sell Alibaba's stock at current levels. Here we go.5 Reasons To Buy AlibabaSolid Business FundamentalsIn Q4, Alibaba reported an earnings miss; however, revenue came in stronger-than-expected at $32.1B (vs. analyst estimates of ~$31B). As you may know, the Chinese economy is still suffering from draconian lockdowns, inflation, and slowing consumer demand. Despite all the noise around its business, Alibaba's fundamentals remain robust. After experiencing a pull forward in demand during the first wave of COVID, the fact that Alibaba is still growing its revenues is heartening. With inflation causing intense margin pressures, Alibaba's gross and operating margins declined considerably in Q4; however, these numbers are still very healthy. As the Chinese economy opens up and resumes growth, I think Alibaba's revenues and margins will start expanding once again.YChartsIn recent quarters, Alibaba's margins have come under pressure, which in turn has led to compression in free cash flow generation. For Q4, Alibaba reported a negative free cash flow of -$1.18B; however, if you look at historical trends, Alibaba has burnt cash in Q4 for the last three years, and this year's burn is the smallest. At the end of the day, Alibaba is still a free cash flow machine.YChartsWith roughly $50B of net cash, Alibaba has little to no liquidity or bankruptcy risk. Due to a violent valuation reset in its stock, Alibaba's management has adopted a more aggressive capital return program (upsizing its share buyback authorization to $25B in March 2022).YChartsAccording to Alibaba's Deputy CFO, Toby Xu -The upsized share buyback underscores our confidence in Alibaba's long-term, sustainable growth potential and value creation. Alibaba's stock price does not fairly reflect the company's value given our robust financial health and expansion plans.I agree with Toby. Let's find out why.Dirt Cheap ValuationsWhen I rated Alibaba a strong buy before its earnings report, the stock was trading at a ridiculously low P/FCF multiple of ~8.55x. I must reiterate that I had no clue as to what Alibaba would report in Q4 or how the stock would react to these numbers. However, the valuation made Alibaba a no-brainer, and it still is a no-brainer (despite the +40% move in Alibaba's stock). Today, Alibaba is trading at ~14x P/FCF (well below the 3-yr median P/FCF of ~21x).YChartsHonestly, I don't think Alibaba's Q4 numbers justify the quick 40% bounce we have seen in its stock over the last few days; however, Alibaba's valuation remains depressed, and the upside move may continue in the near future (quantitative factor data and technical charts suggest so).Improving Quant Factor GradesAfter the recent run-up in Alibaba's stock, its momentum factor grade has improved from \"C-\" to \"B+\". I previously highlighted the positive trend in Alibaba's momentum factor grade as a potential sign of a turnaround in the stock. While momentum may continue to carry the stock higher towards the $140-$150 range, Alibaba's factor grades for valuation and (earnings) revisions are getting weaker.Seeking Alpha Quant RatingWith profitability and growth factor grades holding up, Alibaba's stock could ride the momentum train higher. Furthermore, Alibaba's fundamentals are likely to rebound in the coming 4-8 quarters. Hence, I view the current quantitative factor grades for Alibaba favorably, despite an overall rating of 'Hold' [3.30] on SA's Quant Rating System.A Trend Reversal On The Technical ChartsAlibaba's technical chart is showing signs of a major trend reversal with a breakout from its downward falling wedge pattern. While I don't expect Alibaba's stock to go up in a straight line, I will be looking for the stock to recapture its 200-EMA of ~$130 to confirm the trend reversal.On 25th May 2022, I wrote the following:As of today, Alibaba is still stuck in the downward wedge pattern; however, there are signs of RSI divergence, and the MACD is also moving up slowly as the stock hovers above a demand zone (shown on the chart). While I do not see a trend reversal just yet, I think the technical setup is improving. A breakout to the upside could send Alibaba back up to $140-$150 in quick order.Today, the RSI and MACD divergence that we observed a month ago is far more evident. While this bounce may yet fizzle out in the coming weeks and months, I think the technical setup is favorable for bulls (especially for ones with a long-term investment horizon).Signs of regulatory policy relaxationOver the past few months, the Chinese government has been seemingly easing up on its ongoing technology crackdown. Out of the five reasons I laid out in support of buying Alibaba, I think policy relaxation is probably the weakest one due to its abstract nature. However, if we do see a policy reversal from the Chinese government or even an easing of its technology crackdown, Alibaba could get rid of a major overhang on its stock, and if the negative sentiment abates, the stock could re-rate higher to a normalized valuation multiple.2 Reasons To Sell AlibabaConsidering Alibaba's healthy fundamentals, dirt-cheap valuation, improving quant factor grades, and bullish technical setup, I don't think there is a straightforward, data-driven bear thesis against Alibaba. However, if I had to look for reasons to sell Alibaba at this throwaway price, they would have to be extrinsic reasons.Poor Macroeconomic EnvironmentLike most businesses, Alibaba is exposed to macroeconomic factors. With most of its revenues coming from China, Alibaba's sales growth and margins could remain unimpressive for the foreseeable future. If Alibaba's free cash flows were to contract further in the event of a recession, the stock could go lower even if multiples were to return to normalized levels.Potential Delisting in the USWhile Alibaba has not been named as a (potential) violator of the HFCAA (Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act) by the US SEC, the risk of potential delisting from US exchanges is non-zero for Alibaba. Institutional investors like Blackrock have exited Alibaba's ADRs and invested in Alibaba directly on Hong Kong exchanges. In my view, a potential delisting of ADRs is not a significant risk for Alibaba, but if you wish to get ahead of this risk, you should look to sell Alibaba ADRs [and consider investing in Alibaba on Hong Kong exchanges].Bottom LineEven after a rapid 40%+ move off its lows, fundamental, quantitative, and technical data render Alibaba's stock a \"Buy\". As we saw today, the good in Alibaba (reasons to buy) far outweighs the bad (reasons to sell). Hence, I continue to be bullish on Alibaba.Key Takeaway: I rate Alibaba a strong buy at $117.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09988":0.6,"BABA":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1112,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9070278831,"gmtCreate":1657070331623,"gmtModify":1676535943897,"author":{"id":"4118888674291832","authorId":"4118888674291832","name":"Hui Yean","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0965e84896827ab38942412eb422457d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4118888674291832","authorIdStr":"4118888674291832"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"OK","listText":"OK","text":"OK","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9070278831","repostId":"1126427898","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2549,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9044862330,"gmtCreate":1656731767320,"gmtModify":1676535886307,"author":{"id":"4118888674291832","authorId":"4118888674291832","name":"Hui Yean","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0965e84896827ab38942412eb422457d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4118888674291832","authorIdStr":"4118888674291832"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9044862330","repostId":"2248406678","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":595,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9045545589,"gmtCreate":1656637877341,"gmtModify":1676535868452,"author":{"id":"4118888674291832","authorId":"4118888674291832","name":"Hui Yean","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0965e84896827ab38942412eb422457d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4118888674291832","authorIdStr":"4118888674291832"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9045545589","repostId":"2248349068","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":820,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9045962510,"gmtCreate":1656552018430,"gmtModify":1676535852113,"author":{"id":"4118888674291832","authorId":"4118888674291832","name":"Hui Yean","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0965e84896827ab38942412eb422457d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4118888674291832","authorIdStr":"4118888674291832"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9045962510","repostId":"1156002058","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1156002058","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1656549444,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1156002058?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-30 08:37","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Central Bankers Write Requiem for Low-Inflation Strategies","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1156002058","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"Powell, Lagarde, Bailey warn of longer-lasting inflation shockNew world of deglobalization may requi","content":"<div>\n<p>Powell, Lagarde, Bailey warn of longer-lasting inflation shockNew world of deglobalization may require tighter policy biasRisks are mounting that the world is shifting to a regime of higher inflation,...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-29/central-bankers-write-requiem-for-low-inflation-strategies?srnd=markets-vp\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Central Bankers Write Requiem for Low-Inflation Strategies</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCentral Bankers Write Requiem for Low-Inflation Strategies\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-06-30 08:37 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-29/central-bankers-write-requiem-for-low-inflation-strategies?srnd=markets-vp><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Powell, Lagarde, Bailey warn of longer-lasting inflation shockNew world of deglobalization may require tighter policy biasRisks are mounting that the world is shifting to a regime of higher inflation,...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-29/central-bankers-write-requiem-for-low-inflation-strategies?srnd=markets-vp\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-29/central-bankers-write-requiem-for-low-inflation-strategies?srnd=markets-vp","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1156002058","content_text":"Powell, Lagarde, Bailey warn of longer-lasting inflation shockNew world of deglobalization may require tighter policy biasRisks are mounting that the world is shifting to a regime of higher inflation, forcing central bankers to tear up their playbook of the last 20 years.That was a key message from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and his European counterparts on Wednesday as they debated how to tackle persistent price pressures and slower growth.“I don’t think we are going to go back to that environment of low inflation,” European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde told the ECB’s annual forum in Sintra, Portugal.“There are forces that have been unleashed as a result of the pandemic, as a result of this massive geopolitical shock we are facing now that are going to change the picture and the landscape within which we operate,” she said during a 90-minute panel discussion moderated by Bloomberg Television’s Francine Lacqua.Her comments, alongside those of Powell and Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, mean a potential upheaval of monetary policy practice. For years, the critical foe facing central bankers was too-low inflation -- pushing them to deploy near-zero interest rates and massive bond purchases to lift their economies during recessions and feeble recoveries.The common enemy now is sizzling price pressures, which have surged to 40-year highs in the US as pandemic-tangled supply chains and Russia - Ukraine war sink predictions they will prove fleeting, forcing central bankers to hit the brakes: The Fed raised interest rates by 75 basis points this month -- the largest increase since 1994 -- and signaled it could do the same in July.For Powell and his colleagues, a conclusion that underlying inflation is at risk of drifting higher and becoming unmoored from the Fed’s 2% target could spell an even-more aggressive policy pivot than suggested by their June forecast.That outlook -- which already shows the most hawkish Fed action since the 1990s, projects rates rising another 175 basis points this year and peaking between 3.75% and 4% in 2023. The following year, however, officials pencil in modest rate cuts as growth moderates and inflation turns back toward target.Policy makers “are saying there is going to be some pain and we may not get the soft landing we want, but having this high inflation and high inflation expectations is worse,” said Derek Tang, an economist at LH Meyer in Washington. “This is a major shift” and may forestall rate cuts in 2024.De-GlobalizationThe Fed chief warned of a “re-division of the world into competing geopolitical and economic camps, and a reversal of globalization” that could result in lower productivity and growth.The risk of longer-lasting scarcity as the world reorders can already be seen. Inflation rates in the U.S, U.K, and the eurozone are far above their targets and the worry is that they could be persistently so as global trading and production patterns reconfigure.“It’s how you deal with a series of large supply shocks with no air gap between them, which of course feeds through into expectations,” Bailey said. “Put them all together, they’re not transitory in the traditional sense of the term.”For decades, advanced economies enjoyed a tailwind from globalization. In the terminology of central banking, inflation expectations were anchored and that allowed central banks to allow labor markets to run hotter. Access to off-shore labor also gutted worker bargaining power, further undercutting inflation but at a social cost as wages stagnated.“The last ten years were so far the height of the disinflationary forces that we faced,” Powell said. “That world seems to be gone now at least for the time being. We are living with different forces now and have to think about monetary policy in a very different way.”The Fed in 2020 reorientated its policy approach to tackle the problem of too-low inflation, adopting a strategy that committed to not reacting preemptively to forecasts of higher inflation as the labor market tightened and redefining the full-employment side of its mandate to be broad and inclusive.Powell acknowledged that the current environment raised questions about whether this approach was still fit for purpose.“If you want to know the lessons to be learned of the last ten years, look at our framework. Those were all based on a low inflation environment that we had. And now we are in this new world where it is quite different with higher inflation and many supply shocks and strong inflationary forces around the world.”Central bankers worry that unrelenting price increases could shift households and businesses into a state where expectations are based on more recent inflation experience.“To the extent that there are a series of shocks, it does become rational for people to pay more and more attention,” Powell said. “The clock is kind of running” on how long the Fed can count on low expectations before they move higher. “We will prevent that from happening.”In earlier remarks on Wednesday in Sintra, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said officials now face an asymmetric choice, warning that the error of assuming inflation expectations are well anchored when they aren’t is more costly than tightening policy too aggressively to make sure they stay that way.Jens Weidmann, former President of Germany’s Bundesbank, made a similar argument at a separate event earlier this week in Basel, cautioning against the gradualism that had been a hallmark of central banking until this year.“The more persistent the shock proves to be, the more the delay in monetary tightening increases the risk that companies, households and workers will start to expect that high inflation is here to stay,” Weidmannsaidon June 26.  “In order to prevent de-anchoring, the persistence of inflation should be overstated rather than understated, and a forceful monetary policy response is advisable precisely when uncertainty about it is particularly high.”Powell implicitly acknowledged the asymmetric choice -- conceding that officials could err and tip the economy into a recession, but arguing that was the lesser of two evils.“We are committed to and will succeed in getting inflation down to 2%,” he said. “The process is highly likely to involve some pain. But the worse pain would be from failing to address this high inflation and allowing it to become persistent.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1056,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9076060107,"gmtCreate":1657761118309,"gmtModify":1676536057706,"author":{"id":"4118888674291832","authorId":"4118888674291832","name":"Hui Yean","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0965e84896827ab38942412eb422457d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4118888674291832","authorIdStr":"4118888674291832"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9076060107","repostId":"1166021735","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3080,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9071182273,"gmtCreate":1657501342392,"gmtModify":1676536014330,"author":{"id":"4118888674291832","authorId":"4118888674291832","name":"Hui Yean","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0965e84896827ab38942412eb422457d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4118888674291832","authorIdStr":"4118888674291832"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"OK","listText":"OK","text":"OK","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9071182273","repostId":"2250061276","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2357,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9042518026,"gmtCreate":1656497103465,"gmtModify":1676535840654,"author":{"id":"4118888674291832","authorId":"4118888674291832","name":"Hui Yean","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0965e84896827ab38942412eb422457d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4118888674291832","authorIdStr":"4118888674291832"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9042518026","repostId":"2247335031","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2247335031","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1656515616,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2247335031?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-29 23:13","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Alibaba: 5 Reasons To Buy, 2 Reasons To Sell","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2247335031","media":"Seekingalpha","summary":"IntroductionAlibaba (NYSE:BABA) (OTCPK:BABAF) is one of the most contentious holdings in my portfoli","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2>Introduction</h2><p>Alibaba (NYSE:BABA) (OTCPK:BABAF) is <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> of the most contentious holdings in my portfolio. For starters, Alibaba is the only Chinese stock I own [having initiated a small position in mid-November 2021]. Secondly, I believe that Alibaba&#39;s stock is ridiculously cheap based on its business fundamentals. However, I am still not entirely convinced about this investment due to macroeconomic and regulatory headwinds in China. The consensus noise in broader investment media is very bearish for Chinese tech stocks, and I don&#39;t think the sentiment will improve anytime soon.</p><p>After analyzing Alibaba&#39;s Q4 numbers, I performed an exercise to nail down the bullish and bearish arguments for a long-term investment in Alibaba. In today&#39;s note, we will be discussing five reasons to buy and two reasons to sell Alibaba&#39;s stock at current levels. Here we go.</p><h2>5 Reasons To Buy Alibaba</h2><ul><li><b>Solid Business Fundamentals</b></li></ul><p>In Q4, Alibaba reported an earnings miss; however, revenue came in stronger-than-expected at $32.1B (vs. analyst estimates of ~$31B). As you may know, the Chinese economy is still suffering from draconian lockdowns, inflation, and slowing consumer demand. Despite all the noise around its business, Alibaba&#39;s fundamentals remain robust. After experiencing a pull forward in demand during the first wave of COVID, the fact that Alibaba is still growing its revenues is heartening. With inflation causing intense margin pressures, Alibaba&#39;s gross and operating margins declined considerably in Q4; however, these numbers are still very healthy. As the Chinese economy opens up and resumes growth, I think Alibaba&#39;s revenues and margins will start expanding once again.</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35f832b08e66d361bbb5c51f7355f977\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>YCharts</p><p>In recent quarters, Alibaba&#39;s margins have come under pressure, which in turn has led to compression in free cash flow generation. For Q4, Alibaba reported a negative free cash flow of -$1.18B; however, if you look at historical trends, Alibaba has burnt cash in Q4 for the last three years, and this year&#39;s burn is the smallest. At the end of the day, Alibaba is still a free cash flow machine.</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4b8f7d033c114324988b2dc1f3407c8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"413\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>YCharts</p><p>With roughly $50B of net cash, Alibaba has little to no liquidity or bankruptcy risk. Due to a violent valuation reset in its stock, Alibaba&#39;s management has adopted a more aggressive capital return program (upsizing its share buyback authorization to $25B in March 2022).</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52a65cd79cb85db43d377e4030d3f406\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"413\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>YCharts</p><p>According to Alibaba&#39;s Deputy CFO, Toby Xu -</p><blockquote>The upsized share buyback underscores our confidence in Alibaba&#39;s long-term, sustainable growth potential and value creation. Alibaba&#39;s stock price does not fairly reflect the company&#39;s value given our robust financial health and expansion plans.</blockquote><p>I agree with Toby. Let&#39;s find out why.</p><ul><li><b>Dirt Cheap Valuations</b></li></ul><p>When I rated Alibaba a strong buy before its earnings report, the stock was trading at a ridiculously low P/FCF multiple of ~8.55x. I must reiterate that I had no clue as to what Alibaba would report in Q4 or how the stock would react to these numbers. However, the valuation made Alibaba a no-brainer, and it still is a no-brainer (despite the +40% move in Alibaba&#39;s stock). Today, Alibaba is trading at ~14x P/FCF (well below the 3-yr median P/FCF of ~21x).</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97154790c41df6813966a9c0226a5d43\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"413\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>YCharts</p><p>Honestly, I don&#39;t think Alibaba&#39;s Q4 numbers justify the quick 40% bounce we have seen in its stock over the last few days; however, Alibaba&#39;s valuation remains depressed, and the upside move may continue in the near future (quantitative factor data and technical charts suggest so).</p><ul><li><b>Improving Quant Factor Grades</b></li></ul><p>After the recent run-up in Alibaba&#39;s stock, its momentum factor grade has improved from &#34;C-&#34; to &#34;B+&#34;. I previously highlighted the positive trend in Alibaba&#39;s momentum factor grade as a potential sign of a turnaround in the stock. While momentum may continue to carry the stock higher towards the $140-$150 range, Alibaba&#39;s factor grades for valuation and (earnings) revisions are getting weaker.</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c7da606c3f053f0884d0de15d76984d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"251\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha Quant Rating</p><p>With profitability and growth factor grades holding up, Alibaba&#39;s stock could ride the momentum train higher. Furthermore, Alibaba&#39;s fundamentals are likely to rebound in the coming 4-8 quarters. Hence, I view the current quantitative factor grades for Alibaba favorably, despite an overall rating of &#39;Hold&#39; [3.30] on SA&#39;s Quant Rating System.</p><ul><li><b>A Trend Reversal On The Technical Charts</b></li></ul><p>Alibaba&#39;s technical chart is showing signs of a major trend reversal with a breakout from its downward falling wedge pattern. While I don&#39;t expect Alibaba&#39;s stock to go up in a straight line, I will be looking for the stock to recapture its 200-EMA of ~$130 to confirm the trend reversal.</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da230de0660c27b79cb293f0e3a75813\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"440\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>On 25th May 2022, I wrote the following:</p><blockquote>As of today, Alibaba is still stuck in the downward wedge pattern; however, there are signs of RSI divergence, and the MACD is also moving up slowly as the stock hovers above a demand zone (shown on the chart). While I do not see a trend reversal just yet, I think the technical setup is improving. A breakout to the upside could send Alibaba back up to $140-$150 in quick order.</blockquote><p>Today, the RSI and MACD divergence that we observed a month ago is far more evident. While this bounce may yet fizzle out in the coming weeks and months, I think the technical setup is favorable for bulls (especially for ones with a long-term investment horizon).</p><ul><li><b>Signs of regulatory policy relaxation</b></li></ul><p>Over the past few months, the Chinese government has been seemingly easing up on its ongoing technology crackdown. Out of the five reasons I laid out in support of buying Alibaba, I think policy relaxation is probably the weakest one due to its abstract nature. However, if we do see a policy reversal from the Chinese government or even an easing of its technology crackdown, Alibaba could get rid of a major overhang on its stock, and if the negative sentiment abates, the stock could re-rate higher to a normalized valuation multiple.</p><h2>2 Reasons To Sell Alibaba</h2><p>Considering Alibaba&#39;s healthy fundamentals, dirt-cheap valuation, improving quant factor grades, and bullish technical setup, I don&#39;t think there is a straightforward, data-driven bear thesis against Alibaba. However, if I had to look for reasons to sell Alibaba at this throwaway price, they would have to be extrinsic reasons.</p><ul><li><b>Poor Macroeconomic Environment</b></li></ul><p>Like most businesses, Alibaba is exposed to macroeconomic factors. With most of its revenues coming from China, Alibaba&#39;s sales growth and margins could remain unimpressive for the foreseeable future. If Alibaba&#39;s free cash flows were to contract further in the event of a recession, the stock could go lower even if multiples were to return to normalized levels.</p><ul><li><b>Potential Delisting in the US</b></li></ul><p>While Alibaba has not been named as a (potential) violator of the HFCAA (Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act) by the US SEC, the risk of potential delisting from US exchanges is non-zero for Alibaba. Institutional investors like Blackrock have exited Alibaba&#39;s ADRs and invested in Alibaba directly on Hong Kong exchanges. In my view, a potential delisting of ADRs is not a significant risk for Alibaba, but if you wish to get ahead of this risk, you should look to sell Alibaba ADRs [and consider investing in Alibaba on Hong Kong exchanges].</p><h2>Bottom Line</h2><p>Even after a rapid 40%+ move off its lows, fundamental, quantitative, and technical data render Alibaba&#39;s stock a &#34;Buy&#34;. As we saw today, the good in Alibaba (reasons to buy) far outweighs the bad (reasons to sell). Hence, I continue to be bullish on Alibaba.</p><p><b>Key Takeaway:</b> I rate Alibaba a strong buy at $117.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba: 5 Reasons To Buy, 2 Reasons To Sell</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba: 5 Reasons To Buy, 2 Reasons To Sell\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-06-29 23:13 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4520712-alibaba-stock-5-reasons-buy-2-reasons-sell><strong>Seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>IntroductionAlibaba (NYSE:BABA) (OTCPK:BABAF) is one of the most contentious holdings in my portfolio. For starters, Alibaba is the only Chinese stock I own [having initiated a small position in mid-...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4520712-alibaba-stock-5-reasons-buy-2-reasons-sell\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","09988":"阿里巴巴-W"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4520712-alibaba-stock-5-reasons-buy-2-reasons-sell","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2247335031","content_text":"IntroductionAlibaba (NYSE:BABA) (OTCPK:BABAF) is one of the most contentious holdings in my portfolio. For starters, Alibaba is the only Chinese stock I own [having initiated a small position in mid-November 2021]. Secondly, I believe that Alibaba's stock is ridiculously cheap based on its business fundamentals. However, I am still not entirely convinced about this investment due to macroeconomic and regulatory headwinds in China. The consensus noise in broader investment media is very bearish for Chinese tech stocks, and I don't think the sentiment will improve anytime soon.After analyzing Alibaba's Q4 numbers, I performed an exercise to nail down the bullish and bearish arguments for a long-term investment in Alibaba. In today's note, we will be discussing five reasons to buy and two reasons to sell Alibaba's stock at current levels. Here we go.5 Reasons To Buy AlibabaSolid Business FundamentalsIn Q4, Alibaba reported an earnings miss; however, revenue came in stronger-than-expected at $32.1B (vs. analyst estimates of ~$31B). As you may know, the Chinese economy is still suffering from draconian lockdowns, inflation, and slowing consumer demand. Despite all the noise around its business, Alibaba's fundamentals remain robust. After experiencing a pull forward in demand during the first wave of COVID, the fact that Alibaba is still growing its revenues is heartening. With inflation causing intense margin pressures, Alibaba's gross and operating margins declined considerably in Q4; however, these numbers are still very healthy. As the Chinese economy opens up and resumes growth, I think Alibaba's revenues and margins will start expanding once again.YChartsIn recent quarters, Alibaba's margins have come under pressure, which in turn has led to compression in free cash flow generation. For Q4, Alibaba reported a negative free cash flow of -$1.18B; however, if you look at historical trends, Alibaba has burnt cash in Q4 for the last three years, and this year's burn is the smallest. At the end of the day, Alibaba is still a free cash flow machine.YChartsWith roughly $50B of net cash, Alibaba has little to no liquidity or bankruptcy risk. Due to a violent valuation reset in its stock, Alibaba's management has adopted a more aggressive capital return program (upsizing its share buyback authorization to $25B in March 2022).YChartsAccording to Alibaba's Deputy CFO, Toby Xu -The upsized share buyback underscores our confidence in Alibaba's long-term, sustainable growth potential and value creation. Alibaba's stock price does not fairly reflect the company's value given our robust financial health and expansion plans.I agree with Toby. Let's find out why.Dirt Cheap ValuationsWhen I rated Alibaba a strong buy before its earnings report, the stock was trading at a ridiculously low P/FCF multiple of ~8.55x. I must reiterate that I had no clue as to what Alibaba would report in Q4 or how the stock would react to these numbers. However, the valuation made Alibaba a no-brainer, and it still is a no-brainer (despite the +40% move in Alibaba's stock). Today, Alibaba is trading at ~14x P/FCF (well below the 3-yr median P/FCF of ~21x).YChartsHonestly, I don't think Alibaba's Q4 numbers justify the quick 40% bounce we have seen in its stock over the last few days; however, Alibaba's valuation remains depressed, and the upside move may continue in the near future (quantitative factor data and technical charts suggest so).Improving Quant Factor GradesAfter the recent run-up in Alibaba's stock, its momentum factor grade has improved from \"C-\" to \"B+\". I previously highlighted the positive trend in Alibaba's momentum factor grade as a potential sign of a turnaround in the stock. While momentum may continue to carry the stock higher towards the $140-$150 range, Alibaba's factor grades for valuation and (earnings) revisions are getting weaker.Seeking Alpha Quant RatingWith profitability and growth factor grades holding up, Alibaba's stock could ride the momentum train higher. Furthermore, Alibaba's fundamentals are likely to rebound in the coming 4-8 quarters. Hence, I view the current quantitative factor grades for Alibaba favorably, despite an overall rating of 'Hold' [3.30] on SA's Quant Rating System.A Trend Reversal On The Technical ChartsAlibaba's technical chart is showing signs of a major trend reversal with a breakout from its downward falling wedge pattern. While I don't expect Alibaba's stock to go up in a straight line, I will be looking for the stock to recapture its 200-EMA of ~$130 to confirm the trend reversal.On 25th May 2022, I wrote the following:As of today, Alibaba is still stuck in the downward wedge pattern; however, there are signs of RSI divergence, and the MACD is also moving up slowly as the stock hovers above a demand zone (shown on the chart). While I do not see a trend reversal just yet, I think the technical setup is improving. A breakout to the upside could send Alibaba back up to $140-$150 in quick order.Today, the RSI and MACD divergence that we observed a month ago is far more evident. While this bounce may yet fizzle out in the coming weeks and months, I think the technical setup is favorable for bulls (especially for ones with a long-term investment horizon).Signs of regulatory policy relaxationOver the past few months, the Chinese government has been seemingly easing up on its ongoing technology crackdown. Out of the five reasons I laid out in support of buying Alibaba, I think policy relaxation is probably the weakest one due to its abstract nature. However, if we do see a policy reversal from the Chinese government or even an easing of its technology crackdown, Alibaba could get rid of a major overhang on its stock, and if the negative sentiment abates, the stock could re-rate higher to a normalized valuation multiple.2 Reasons To Sell AlibabaConsidering Alibaba's healthy fundamentals, dirt-cheap valuation, improving quant factor grades, and bullish technical setup, I don't think there is a straightforward, data-driven bear thesis against Alibaba. However, if I had to look for reasons to sell Alibaba at this throwaway price, they would have to be extrinsic reasons.Poor Macroeconomic EnvironmentLike most businesses, Alibaba is exposed to macroeconomic factors. With most of its revenues coming from China, Alibaba's sales growth and margins could remain unimpressive for the foreseeable future. If Alibaba's free cash flows were to contract further in the event of a recession, the stock could go lower even if multiples were to return to normalized levels.Potential Delisting in the USWhile Alibaba has not been named as a (potential) violator of the HFCAA (Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act) by the US SEC, the risk of potential delisting from US exchanges is non-zero for Alibaba. Institutional investors like Blackrock have exited Alibaba's ADRs and invested in Alibaba directly on Hong Kong exchanges. In my view, a potential delisting of ADRs is not a significant risk for Alibaba, but if you wish to get ahead of this risk, you should look to sell Alibaba ADRs [and consider investing in Alibaba on Hong Kong exchanges].Bottom LineEven after a rapid 40%+ move off its lows, fundamental, quantitative, and technical data render Alibaba's stock a \"Buy\". As we saw today, the good in Alibaba (reasons to buy) far outweighs the bad (reasons to sell). Hence, I continue to be bullish on Alibaba.Key Takeaway: I rate Alibaba a strong buy at $117.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09988":0.6,"BABA":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1112,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9075976867,"gmtCreate":1658139094159,"gmtModify":1676536111075,"author":{"id":"4118888674291832","authorId":"4118888674291832","name":"Hui Yean","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0965e84896827ab38942412eb422457d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4118888674291832","authorIdStr":"4118888674291832"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"OK","listText":"OK","text":"OK","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9075976867","repostId":"1149776860","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2693,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9073865314,"gmtCreate":1657327763138,"gmtModify":1676535991105,"author":{"id":"4118888674291832","authorId":"4118888674291832","name":"Hui Yean","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0965e84896827ab38942412eb422457d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4118888674291832","authorIdStr":"4118888674291832"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"OK","listText":"OK","text":"OK","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9073865314","repostId":"1172335974","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1172335974","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1657272279,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1172335974?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-08 17:24","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Behind Abe's assassination, how did the Japanese economy \"lose\" for three decades?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1172335974","media":"风暴眼工作室","summary":"7月8日，日本前首相安倍晋三遭遇枪击的消息震惊全世界。据央视报道，当地时间8日，日本前首相安倍晋三当天上午在奈良发表演讲时中枪 。据悉，安倍晋三在上救护车时还有意识，目前安倍晋三已经没有生命体征。日元","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On July 8th, the news that former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was shot shocked the whole world.</p><p>According to CCTV reports, on the 8th local time, former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was shot when he delivered a speech in Nara that morning. It is reported that Shinzo Abe was still conscious when he got on the ambulance. At present, Shinzo Abe has no vital signs.</p><p>The yen exchange rate was also affected. As of 11:30 on July 8, the decline of the US dollar against the yen expanded to 0.47% to 135.37, and the yen appreciated.</p><p>Why did the yen suddenly appreciate after Abe's assassination? Perhaps it has something to do with the \"Abenomics\" promoted during his term of office. After Shinzo Abe took office at the end of 2012, he accelerated the implementation of a series of economic stimulus policies, the most notable of which was the loose monetary policy, and the yen exchange rate began to depreciate at an accelerated pace.</p><p>Since the beginning of this year, the yen exchange rate has continued to fall more obviously. On June 13th, the exchange rate of the Japanese yen against the US dollar once fell below the 135 yen to 1 US dollar mark, setting a new low in about 24 years. In more than a year since the beginning of 2021, the yen has depreciated significantly by more than 25% relative to the US dollar.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73ac608c7438fa9083c60e6af1c6dfd9\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"330\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>As a traditional safe-haven currency, it continued to plummet, causing Japanese bonds and yen assets to begin to be sold off sharply.</p><p>While Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda reiterated his view that the Bank of Japan must maintain its massive stimulus plan to shore up the fragile economic recovery.</p><p>But for ordinary Japanese, it is still debatable whether the fragile economic recovery needs to be supported by the sharp depreciation of the yen. After all, as a big importer, Japan's energy dependence on foreign countries is as high as 88%, and its food self-sufficiency rate is only 37%. The rise in commodity prices brought about by the depreciation of the yen will directly affect citizens' lives.</p><p>Especially after so many years of substantial easing, since the Japanese economy collapsed in 1990, Japan's average annual GDP growth rate has been less than 1%.</p><p>The real estate has been widened, the price has been widened, but the disposable income of residents has not been widened, and people somewhat lack confidence. After experiencing the \"lost decade\", \"lost twenty years\" and \"lost thirty years\", Japan's lost eyes are going to the time dimension of Atlantis.</p><p>In the fourth decade, will Japan be able to make a comeback?</p><p><b>Abe and his \"Abenomics\"</b></p><p>Although Shinzo Abe resigned as prime minister in August 2020, the sharp depreciation of the yen is closely related to his \"Abenomics\".</p><p>At the end of 2012, Shinzo Abe once again served as the Prime Minister of Japan, and immediately threw out the route of \"fighting for the economy\", which was heated as \"Abenomics\" by the media.</p><p>The so-called \"Abenomics\" is a policy combination to solve Japan's economic problems through experimental monetary policy (QQE for short), proactive fiscal policy and economic structural reform. Including \"three major strategies\":</p><p>First, it proposed the largest quantitative easing (QE) monetary policy in Japanese history, and the central bank purchased 7.5 trillion yen of Treasury Bond every month;</p><p>Second, break through the expansionary fiscal policy of the previous government with a total budget of 70 trillion yen;</p><p>Third, a package of growth strategies including the Trans-Pacific Strategic Economic Partnership Agreement (TPP), deregulation to arouse private investment and promote innovation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79ef0cf1ad82f6f4d2dbd2d9e5cde013\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Abenomics is the latest effort to solve Japan's economic downturn since 1990s. So how effective is the implementation?</p><p>An analysis article of global macro speculation pointed out that Abenomics is a great economic experiment. Japanese financiers and politicians broke stereotypes and used a three-pronged approach of structural adjustment, fiscal and monetary policies to increase Japan's potential economic growth rate and overcome deflation. The first three years of the experiment were quite successful.</p><p>At the same time, the article also pointed out that \"Abenomics\" was bleak from 2016 to 2020. Under the impact of COVID-19 pandemic, some Abenomics goals have been achieved, especially inflation expectations, yen exchange rate, real interest rates and stock prices. However, the potential output growth in the same period is not good, which proves that structural reform is not being promoted effectively.</p><p>Zhang Jifeng, deputy director of the Japanese Institute of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, believes that Abe's achievements in economic governance are obvious to all, but there are also serious problems. One of the most serious problems is the difficult financial situation, which has never changed.</p><p>Liu Yun, an associate researcher at the Northeast Asia Institute of China Institute of Contemporary International Relations, believes that if we only look at Japan's GDP, there will be a misunderstanding that Abenomics is not very successful. But on the whole, the Japanese economy is an upward attitude. For example, wages in Japan have increased and profits of large enterprises have grown well, so the Japanese economic situation has improved.</p><p><b>\"Lost\" began in 1990</b></p><p>The original intention of \"Abenomics\" is to save Japan's persistently sluggish economy. The \"lost decade\" was first put forward when the Japanese stock market bubble burst in 1990.</p><p>More than ten years before the bursting of the bubble that devastated Japan, Japan was once a \"miracle-making country\".</p><p>From the early labor-intensive enterprises such as cotton textile, they began to accumulate capital, and then took manufacturing as the core industry, actively expanded investment, introduced foreign advanced technology, and quickly rebuilt the domestic industrial system from the ruins after the war.</p><p>By 1964, the Tokyo Olympic Games became an important symbol of Japan's economic development and transformation. Due to the demand for steel for large-scale infrastructure construction and the demand for color TVs at the opening of the Olympic Games, Japan's steel and electromechanical industries flourished, and Japan experienced a complete \"The development stage from exchanging shirts for planes\" to \"Made in Japan\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d0a4f35b86afc5382004806076b2487\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In 1965, Japan's steel exports to the United States accounted for half of the total imports of the United States. In 1968, Japan became the world's second largest economy after the United States.</p><p>At the same time, Japan has firmly grasped the new generation of industrial revolution. Automobiles, steel, telecommunications, semiconductors and pharmaceuticals have comprehensively dominated the US market, and Hitachi, NEC, Fujitsu, Mitsubishi and Toshiba have joined forces.</p><p>In the consecutive trade deficits of the United States with Japan that year, the industrial giants suffered losses year after year, and Intel was even on the verge of bankruptcy.</p><p>Under the dilemma of being beaten by Japanese goods, the United States launched a trade war that Chinese people now look familiar-</p><p>Since 1981, Japanese cars sold all over the world have been heavily taxed by the United States, and their export quotas have been restricted.</p><p>At the same time, the United States imposed 100% tariffs on Japanese high-tech products such as computers and televisions on the grounds of \"dumping behavior\" by Japan. Japanese semiconductors were set a lower export price limit, and Japanese chips were subject to 100% punitive tariffs.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2325f7d267568d30d4ad4c0f6022d74e\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"326\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>U.S. lawmakers smash Japanese products live</p><p>In addition, the executives of Japanese enterprises were arrested in the name of \"industrial espionage\". Japan was accused by the United States of being a \"currency manipulator\" and stealing intellectual property rights from the United States, and was asked to increase the import of American agricultural products, cancel the trade terms unfavorable to foreign companies, let Japan impose voluntary export restrictions in textiles, steel, television and machine tools, and at the same time carry out factory transfer and industrial upgrading...</p><p>While constantly accusing Japan of supporting industrial policies through the state, the United States introduced a new trade law in 1988, activating the \"Super 301\" clause-openly legislating to interfere with Japan's industrial and trade policies, forcing Japan to carry out institutional reforms.</p><p>In 1989, Japan and the United States began negotiations on the \"Japan-US Structural Agreement\", and negotiated on economic policies, systems and corporate behaviors, which prompted Japan to carry out open reforms in circulation system and business practices: for example, taking housing as a strategic industry and further opening up the circulation system; Further open up the domestic market and reorganize the import and export system in accordance with the principle of free trade.</p><p>By 1989, the U.S. Trade Representative had initiated a total of 24 Section 301 investigations against Japan, almost all of which were made concessions by the Japanese government.</p><p>At the same time, due to the \"Plaza Accord\" reached by the United States, Japan, the Federal Republic of Germany, France and the United Kingdom in 1985, the exchange rate of the yen against the US dollar was forced to appreciate sharply. After \"Black Monday\" in October 1987, the yen appreciated to 120 yen/dollar, with an increase of 90% in 1988.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12ab4dd9acfe04f8aab569cb046a73ff\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"337\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Plaza agreement signing site</p><p>The sharp appreciation of the yen has dealt a devastating blow to Japan, which is mainly an export-oriented economy. Production costs have risen sharply, and high-quality enterprises have begun to flee overseas. In order to cope with the exchange rate crisis, the Japanese government has begun to cut interest rates sharply, hoping to \"send money\" so that enterprises can invest and set up factories at low cost.</p><p>But in fact, due to the long industrial return cycle, a large amount of yen lent at low interest rate has not been invested in the real economy, and the abundant liquidity of the money market has begun to flow into the housing market, stock market and luxury goods market with the \"strength\" of the yen's sharp appreciation after the Plaza Accord.</p><p>Since 1986, Japan's rapidly expanding economic prosperity has been called the \"Heisei Boom\". At the end of 1985, the Nikkei 225 stock price index closed at 13,083 points and at the end of 1989, it closed at 38,916 points. In four years, the Nikkei 225 index rose by 197.45%, and the total market value of stocks continued to expand to 896 trillion yen, accounting for 60% of Japan's gross national product that year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f5d38582a2e3123322a61e5b005f13f\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"312\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Japanese streets in the 1980s</p><p>The land price in Tokyo is soaring, and the land price of the Tokyo Imperial Palace of the Japanese Emperor exceeds the land valuation of the whole France; A 10,000 yen note in the Ginza area is thrown on the ground, and you can't buy the small piece of land it covers.</p><p>At the same time, the Japanese have become the world's largest consumers of luxury goods. They have swept watch shops, jewelry stores and wine houses all over the world. Foreign banks and securities companies have counted their money in the Japanese market.</p><p>After a large number of short-selling options on stock indexes that completely deviate from economic reality, the bubble broke out when it expanded to the extreme.</p><p>In October 1990, Japan's five-year bull market ended, and the stock market plummeted by 63.24%, creating the largest decline in the history of the Japanese stock market. The following year, the property market plummeted by 65%, bankrupt enterprises emerged in an endless stream, the number of unemployed people surged, and the wealth of the whole country shrank by nearly 50%.</p><p>At the same time, the short-term sharp recession has caused countless ordinary people who have no time to get out to be \"stuck\" by various capital investment targets, and a major economic reshuffle has allowed the wealth of the whole society to be transferred to the hands of a few winners.</p><p>Since then, the Japanese economy has been in a downturn for a long time.</p><p>The Nikkei Average Index went from a historical high of 38,957 on December 29, 1989 to a low of 6,994.9 on October 29, 2008, with a cumulative decline of more than 82%. In the next four years, the Nikkei Average Index still hovered around 10,000 points.</p><p>That is to say, since the late 1990s, the \"lost decade\" of Japanese economy has been reported in newspapers, and the problem has not been solved so far.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ced67142e550e77f5f84c394cba59c8d\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"383\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>What exactly has Japan lost in 30 years?</b></p><p>In 2010, as the Japanese economy still did not improve, the media began to put forward the \"lost twenty years\" of the Japanese economy.</p><p>In fact, \"twenty years\" is still not the end of Japan's economic downturn. Counting from the highest closing point in the history of the Nikkei 225 Index at 38,957, it has been falling all the way since then, falling to less than 10,000 points many times during this period, and it did not stop falling until 2017.</p><p>At the close of trading on July 7, 2022, the Nikkei 225 Index closed at 26,490.53 points, still more than 10,000 points away from its highest point.</p><p>The \"Plaza Accord\", which caused the yen to appreciate sharply, is considered by many people to be the root cause of the Great Depression caused by Japan's bubble economy.</p><p>However, in the analysis of this Great Depression, the criticism of the Plaza Accord is not consistent. Former Deputy Minister of the Ministry of Finance of Japan, Toyo Tian, even personally refuted this view.</p><p>Because from 1985 to 1990, with overseas investment under the strong yen, Japan's overseas net assets rose from more than 1 trillion US dollars to more than 3 trillion US dollars, that is, the so-called \"there is another Japan besides Japan\"--</p><p>The 300% appreciation of the yen in 10 years is accompanied by a huge increase in production costs and labor costs. In order to maintain their competitiveness, a large number of Japanese companies have to look overseas, which makes Japanese companies' capital flow out rapidly.</p><p>The rapidly appreciating yen and the increasingly anxious Japan-US trade war have also boosted this outflow-the strong yen is convenient for Japanese companies to invest and acquire overseas companies, while building factories abroad can bypass the US sanctions on \"Made in Japan\".</p><p>From 1985 to 1990, Japanese companies carried out a total of 21 huge overseas mergers and acquisitions worth more than 50 billion yen.</p><p>In 1989, Rockefeller Center bought by Mitsubishi for $1.4 billion, Universal Pictures bought by Panasonic for $6 billion, and Columbia Pictures bought by Sony for $3.4 billion-including the copyright of Spider-Man that Marvel Comics has not been able to recover now;</p><p>The Japanese are even ambitious to buy the United States as \"Japan's forty-first county\". Why does the city look so like Tokyo from the 70th floor of the InterContinental Los Angeles Hotel?</p><p>Because the Japanese bought half of the real estate here back then.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6420f38680bf983f828177b00418e180\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Japanese scholar Ito Gan wrote in Anger Across the Pacific that some Japanese people believe that Japan will become the next \"superpower\" and the government will lead the people to \"end the American era\".</p><p>It's just that these real estates belong to giant enterprises, consortia, speculators and wealthy foreign businessmen, but they don't belong to the Japanese people alone.</p><p>In 2020, \"Sankei Shimbun\" reported that the revenue of Japanese overseas local legal persons has increased by 220% in the past 20 years. According to OECD statistics, Japan's per capita purchasing power level in 2020 is only US $39,000, an increase of only US $39,000 from 1990. 4%.</p><p><b>1. Thirty years of unmoved income</b></p><p>After 1900, Japan's investment activities came to an abrupt end.</p><p>Banks go bankrupt, factories go bankrupt, mortgage disasters, and banks full of non-performing assets have to merge and reorganize; The sharply rising production costs have caused a large number of enterprises to close down, and the worst thing is ordinary people-they have been laid off in the tide of bankruptcies, their lifelong savings have volatilized in the bubble crisis, and they have to bear heavy mortgages.</p><p>However, after the collapse of the lifelong employment system and the merit sequence, they worked overtime in order to keep their jobs. Although the \"social animal\" culture was not born in Japan's bubble crisis, it has been solidified since then-accepting competition and the supremacy of production efficiency. The squeezing of gears on themselves has become the most helpless choice for Japanese migrant workers.</p><p>However, the torrent of social development pushed the Japanese forward, but it failed to give them the due reward.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11648f82b27132391bb1a6cef2c3432a\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"296\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In February 2021, the \"Diligence Statistics Survey\" released by the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare of Japan showed that Japan's per capita monthly salary in 2020 was 318,299 yen, or about 19,600 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.2%, the largest decrease in 12 years.</p><p>This figure was about 350,000 yuan in 1990, when the average annual income of Japanese people was 4.25 million yen. Based on the exchange rate at that time, the monthly salary was about 11,600 yuan.</p><p>The average annual income of \"standing still\" for 30 consecutive years has become the most violent \"contraceptive pill\" in Japan.</p><p><b>2. Irreversible aging</b></p><p>In 2020, Japan's total population ranked 11th in the world, falling out of the top ten for the first time since 1950. From 1974 to 2020, Japan's birth rate dropped from 1.86% to 0.67%, and it began to fall into negative population growth for 13 consecutive years around 2008.</p><p>At the same time, Japan's elderly population aged 65 and above reached 36.4 million, accounting for 29.1% of the total population.</p><p>The declining birthrate and aging have caused Japan to fall into a serious shortage of labor supply and slow down in labor productivity growth, thus causing the economic growth to continue to slow down:</p><p>\"From 1961 to 2020, Japan's working-age population growth rate, labor productivity growth rate and economic trend basically changed synchronously. From 1961 to 1975, the average growth rate of Japan's working-age population remained at a high level of 1.6%, and the growth rate of labor productivity reached a peak of 8.4%. The average growth rate of real GDP also remained at a high level of 7.7%; From 1976 to 1988, the working-age population and labor productivity maintained a low growth rate of 0.9% and 3.7% respectively, and the real GDP growth rate also dropped to 4.4%; From 1989 to 2020, the growth rates of working-age population and labor productivity dropped sharply from 0.9% and 4.4% to-0.8% and 1.1% respectively, and the real GDP growth rate dropped from 5.4% to-4.4%. \"</p><p>With the decline of the labor force and the decrease of tax revenue, the expenses such as pensions that need to be spent are rapidly expanding. Since 1990, the number of people living on pensions has been five times that of taxpayers.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c92a0dfa8f71abcdb41b554124294a7\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"302\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In 2004, Japan launched the pension reform, increasing the tax revenue by 0.354% every year. By 2017, the pension paid by taxpayers had accounted for 18.3% of their annual income, which became a heavy burden for the Japanese people.</p><p>The ranking of Japan's Human Development Index (which measures per capita GDP, education, and medical care) dropped from the first place in the world in 1990 to the 19th place in the world in 2020.</p><p>At the same time, Japanese young people have a negative attitude towards life, low material desire and lack of motivation for struggle due to the decline in expected income, resulting in \"hikikomori\". According to the definition of the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare of Japan, hikikomori are people who stay at home for more than 6 months and almost cut off contact with the outside world. According to the data of the Survey on Living Conditions of the Cabinet Office of Japan, there are 541,000 hikikomori aged 15-39 and 40-64, respectively.</p><p>The consumption and house purchase demand of the elderly are far lower than those of young people, and young people seriously lack consumption desire, which makes it difficult to significantly increase total consumption. Japan has fallen into a \"low desire society\".</p><p><b>3. Lifelong QE, but always weak</b></p><p>In 2021, Japan's total GDP of 4,937.4 billion US dollars will fall from the \"5 prefix\", but it is still an economic power that stands out from Europe and ranks as the third largest economy in the world. It doesn't seem to be bad.</p><p>But in fact, Japan's GDP reached 5.55 trillion US dollars in 1995. At that time, the ratio of Japan's GDP to the GDP of the United States was 71.34%. In 2021, this ratio became 21.46%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0823be1f503a8cdff0d86e9ba57b90cf\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"231\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Compared with the glory of the past, today's Japan is indeed somewhat embarrassed.</p><p>At the same time, Japan's macro leverage ratio also leads the world. According to the latest data from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), at the end of the second quarter of 2021, the macro leverage ratios of various countries were 286.2% in the United States, 284.3% in the Eurozone, and 416.5% in Japan.</p><p>The huge debt scale comes from decades of Japanese quantitative easing.</p><p>Quantitative easing is a Japanese innovation in the field of finance.</p><p>In 1998, the Bank of Japan began to implement the policy of zero interest rate and quantitative easing for the first time, that is, to regulate economic activities by controlling the currency supply.</p><p>In 2013, Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda launched a monetary policy stimulus plan to boost inflation.</p><p>Since 2013, the yen has continued to depreciate against the US dollar, and exports have achieved a substantial increase; At the same time, the Japanese benchmark interest rate has been falling all the way, and the ten-year Treasury Bond interest rate even dropped to a negative number in 2016.</p><p>At the same time, the Bank of Japan began to purchase ETFs (exchange-traded funds) on a large scale, with an average annual ETF purchase scale close to 4 trillion yen. By 2021, the Bank of Japan's stocks will account for more than 80% of stock ETFs, accounting for more than 80% of the total market value of the Tokyo Stock Exchange.</p><p>Although the Nikkei 225 index has strengthened all the way from around 8,000 points in 2012, and even broke through the 30,000-point mark in February 2021, this still seems to be a mirror-like bubble boom because of the huge amount injected by the Bank of Japan. The base currency has neither raised inflation nor driven economic growth.</p><p>In terms of economic structure, except for core basic raw materials, Japan still maintains its barrier advantage, and almost all other industries are hesitating. The markets of automobiles, shipbuilding, machine tools, and electronics industries are all being divided up by the United States, China, South Korea and other countries, and there are few achievements in emerging industries.</p><p>At present, the number of Japanese unicorn companies is only 6, which lags far behind the 554, 180, 64, 43, and 26 in the United States, China, India, Britain, and Germany, and their valuations are all less than US $2 billion.</p><p>At the same time, Japan's debt has expanded rapidly. As of the end of December 2021, Japan's national debt, composed of Treasury Bond, borrowings and short-term government securities, reached 1,218.4 trillion yen, and the per capita debt of Japanese citizens was approximately 9.71 million yen, or approximately RMB 534573 yuan.</p><p>However, at a time when central banks in the United States, Britain, and Europe have begun to tighten their pace, the Bank of Japan has not changed its loose monetary policy.</p><p><b>\"Against the market\" easing, unlimited money printing, yen falling streak</b></p><p>The yen's losing streak began in March.</p><p>After the Federal Reserve's rate hike landed in March and released signals that it would increase rate hike and accelerate shrinking balance sheet in the future, both Britain and Europe began to accelerate the tightening of monetary policy, but the Bank of Japan did the opposite and insisted on maintaining quantitative easing policy.</p><p>On March 28th, the Bank of Japan issued a press release announcing that it would launch a \"continuous designated price market operation\" measure to curb the rise of interest rates from March 29th to 31st, that is, to purchase public bonds from private financial institutions in unlimited amounts at designated interest rates.</p><p>On the same day, the yen exchange rate plunged 1.38%.</p><p>On April 20th, less than a month later, the Bank of Japan announced an unlimited purchase of 10-year Treasury Bond to defend the 0.25% yield ceiling of 10-year Japanese Treasury Bond, which once again pushed the depreciation of the yen.</p><p>Some experts believe that since the depreciation of the yen is beneficial to Japan's export-oriented economy, the Bank of Japan has always regarded the loose monetary environment as an important means to boost market expectations, especially when it has just entered the new fiscal year, it is even more difficult for the Bank of Japan to tighten monetary policy.</p><p>But can easing save Japan's economy?</p><p>In fact, Japan's trade structure is unstable. Since the Abe government came to power and introduced the unlimited stimulus policy, the total export volume has declined continuously from 2012 to 2015, and only maintained a trade surplus in 2016 and 2017.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b2490580bd25519041d5aef1bb5c3c0\" tg-width=\"525\" tg-height=\"263\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Recently, global crude oil and raw material prices have soared, and the depreciation of the yen has raised the costs of Japanese companies and broadened the channels for imported inflation. At the same time, according to the \"Value-added Trade Statistics\" released by the OECD, the added value created in Japan has dropped from 94% in 1995 to 83% in 2018, a decrease of 11%. Japan's related high value-added products and services have It is increasingly difficult to offset its rising production costs.</p><p>The only beneficiary is Japanese local speculators. With the sharp landing of the Federal Reserve, U.S. bond yields continue to soar, and the spread between U.S. and Japanese Treasury Bond has become wider and wider, so local speculators have begun to short-sell Japanese yen on a large scale., borrowing yen to buy arbitrage of U.S. bonds.</p><p>What about ordinary people?</p><p>Rising prices have led to rising living costs and weakened consumption power, and the \"lost thirty years\" seems to be postponed again-the depreciation of the yen, which was recognized as \"beneficial to the economy\" by the Bank of Japan, has never effectively boosted Japan's economic growth for many years, but has prevented the Japanese economy from escaping from the large-scale financial easing policy for more than ten years.</p><p>Thirty years ago, then central bank governor Mie Yasu warned the government that a country must not survive by blowing economic bubbles, otherwise it will be a great harm to the country.</p><p>So shortly after he took office, Japan implemented a tightening monetary policy, greatly raised the loan interest rate and actively punctured the bubble. This hard landing plunged Japan into decades of depression, but it was often regarded by later generations as the decisive decision of \"a strong man breaking his wrist\".</p><p>It's just that the car in front has been overturned, and the car in front is unknown.</p><p>Thirty years later, Japan seems to be still the same Japan.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1639703443321","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Behind Abe's assassination, how did the Japanese economy \"lose\" for three decades?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBehind Abe's assassination, how did the Japanese economy \"lose\" for three decades?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">风暴眼工作室</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-07-08 17:24</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On July 8th, the news that former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was shot shocked the whole world.</p><p>According to CCTV reports, on the 8th local time, former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was shot when he delivered a speech in Nara that morning. It is reported that Shinzo Abe was still conscious when he got on the ambulance. At present, Shinzo Abe has no vital signs.</p><p>The yen exchange rate was also affected. As of 11:30 on July 8, the decline of the US dollar against the yen expanded to 0.47% to 135.37, and the yen appreciated.</p><p>Why did the yen suddenly appreciate after Abe's assassination? Perhaps it has something to do with the \"Abenomics\" promoted during his term of office. After Shinzo Abe took office at the end of 2012, he accelerated the implementation of a series of economic stimulus policies, the most notable of which was the loose monetary policy, and the yen exchange rate began to depreciate at an accelerated pace.</p><p>Since the beginning of this year, the yen exchange rate has continued to fall more obviously. On June 13th, the exchange rate of the Japanese yen against the US dollar once fell below the 135 yen to 1 US dollar mark, setting a new low in about 24 years. In more than a year since the beginning of 2021, the yen has depreciated significantly by more than 25% relative to the US dollar.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73ac608c7438fa9083c60e6af1c6dfd9\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"330\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>As a traditional safe-haven currency, it continued to plummet, causing Japanese bonds and yen assets to begin to be sold off sharply.</p><p>While Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda reiterated his view that the Bank of Japan must maintain its massive stimulus plan to shore up the fragile economic recovery.</p><p>But for ordinary Japanese, it is still debatable whether the fragile economic recovery needs to be supported by the sharp depreciation of the yen. After all, as a big importer, Japan's energy dependence on foreign countries is as high as 88%, and its food self-sufficiency rate is only 37%. The rise in commodity prices brought about by the depreciation of the yen will directly affect citizens' lives.</p><p>Especially after so many years of substantial easing, since the Japanese economy collapsed in 1990, Japan's average annual GDP growth rate has been less than 1%.</p><p>The real estate has been widened, the price has been widened, but the disposable income of residents has not been widened, and people somewhat lack confidence. After experiencing the \"lost decade\", \"lost twenty years\" and \"lost thirty years\", Japan's lost eyes are going to the time dimension of Atlantis.</p><p>In the fourth decade, will Japan be able to make a comeback?</p><p><b>Abe and his \"Abenomics\"</b></p><p>Although Shinzo Abe resigned as prime minister in August 2020, the sharp depreciation of the yen is closely related to his \"Abenomics\".</p><p>At the end of 2012, Shinzo Abe once again served as the Prime Minister of Japan, and immediately threw out the route of \"fighting for the economy\", which was heated as \"Abenomics\" by the media.</p><p>The so-called \"Abenomics\" is a policy combination to solve Japan's economic problems through experimental monetary policy (QQE for short), proactive fiscal policy and economic structural reform. Including \"three major strategies\":</p><p>First, it proposed the largest quantitative easing (QE) monetary policy in Japanese history, and the central bank purchased 7.5 trillion yen of Treasury Bond every month;</p><p>Second, break through the expansionary fiscal policy of the previous government with a total budget of 70 trillion yen;</p><p>Third, a package of growth strategies including the Trans-Pacific Strategic Economic Partnership Agreement (TPP), deregulation to arouse private investment and promote innovation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79ef0cf1ad82f6f4d2dbd2d9e5cde013\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Abenomics is the latest effort to solve Japan's economic downturn since 1990s. So how effective is the implementation?</p><p>An analysis article of global macro speculation pointed out that Abenomics is a great economic experiment. Japanese financiers and politicians broke stereotypes and used a three-pronged approach of structural adjustment, fiscal and monetary policies to increase Japan's potential economic growth rate and overcome deflation. The first three years of the experiment were quite successful.</p><p>At the same time, the article also pointed out that \"Abenomics\" was bleak from 2016 to 2020. Under the impact of COVID-19 pandemic, some Abenomics goals have been achieved, especially inflation expectations, yen exchange rate, real interest rates and stock prices. However, the potential output growth in the same period is not good, which proves that structural reform is not being promoted effectively.</p><p>Zhang Jifeng, deputy director of the Japanese Institute of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, believes that Abe's achievements in economic governance are obvious to all, but there are also serious problems. One of the most serious problems is the difficult financial situation, which has never changed.</p><p>Liu Yun, an associate researcher at the Northeast Asia Institute of China Institute of Contemporary International Relations, believes that if we only look at Japan's GDP, there will be a misunderstanding that Abenomics is not very successful. But on the whole, the Japanese economy is an upward attitude. For example, wages in Japan have increased and profits of large enterprises have grown well, so the Japanese economic situation has improved.</p><p><b>\"Lost\" began in 1990</b></p><p>The original intention of \"Abenomics\" is to save Japan's persistently sluggish economy. The \"lost decade\" was first put forward when the Japanese stock market bubble burst in 1990.</p><p>More than ten years before the bursting of the bubble that devastated Japan, Japan was once a \"miracle-making country\".</p><p>From the early labor-intensive enterprises such as cotton textile, they began to accumulate capital, and then took manufacturing as the core industry, actively expanded investment, introduced foreign advanced technology, and quickly rebuilt the domestic industrial system from the ruins after the war.</p><p>By 1964, the Tokyo Olympic Games became an important symbol of Japan's economic development and transformation. Due to the demand for steel for large-scale infrastructure construction and the demand for color TVs at the opening of the Olympic Games, Japan's steel and electromechanical industries flourished, and Japan experienced a complete \"The development stage from exchanging shirts for planes\" to \"Made in Japan\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d0a4f35b86afc5382004806076b2487\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In 1965, Japan's steel exports to the United States accounted for half of the total imports of the United States. In 1968, Japan became the world's second largest economy after the United States.</p><p>At the same time, Japan has firmly grasped the new generation of industrial revolution. Automobiles, steel, telecommunications, semiconductors and pharmaceuticals have comprehensively dominated the US market, and Hitachi, NEC, Fujitsu, Mitsubishi and Toshiba have joined forces.</p><p>In the consecutive trade deficits of the United States with Japan that year, the industrial giants suffered losses year after year, and Intel was even on the verge of bankruptcy.</p><p>Under the dilemma of being beaten by Japanese goods, the United States launched a trade war that Chinese people now look familiar-</p><p>Since 1981, Japanese cars sold all over the world have been heavily taxed by the United States, and their export quotas have been restricted.</p><p>At the same time, the United States imposed 100% tariffs on Japanese high-tech products such as computers and televisions on the grounds of \"dumping behavior\" by Japan. Japanese semiconductors were set a lower export price limit, and Japanese chips were subject to 100% punitive tariffs.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2325f7d267568d30d4ad4c0f6022d74e\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"326\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>U.S. lawmakers smash Japanese products live</p><p>In addition, the executives of Japanese enterprises were arrested in the name of \"industrial espionage\". Japan was accused by the United States of being a \"currency manipulator\" and stealing intellectual property rights from the United States, and was asked to increase the import of American agricultural products, cancel the trade terms unfavorable to foreign companies, let Japan impose voluntary export restrictions in textiles, steel, television and machine tools, and at the same time carry out factory transfer and industrial upgrading...</p><p>While constantly accusing Japan of supporting industrial policies through the state, the United States introduced a new trade law in 1988, activating the \"Super 301\" clause-openly legislating to interfere with Japan's industrial and trade policies, forcing Japan to carry out institutional reforms.</p><p>In 1989, Japan and the United States began negotiations on the \"Japan-US Structural Agreement\", and negotiated on economic policies, systems and corporate behaviors, which prompted Japan to carry out open reforms in circulation system and business practices: for example, taking housing as a strategic industry and further opening up the circulation system; Further open up the domestic market and reorganize the import and export system in accordance with the principle of free trade.</p><p>By 1989, the U.S. Trade Representative had initiated a total of 24 Section 301 investigations against Japan, almost all of which were made concessions by the Japanese government.</p><p>At the same time, due to the \"Plaza Accord\" reached by the United States, Japan, the Federal Republic of Germany, France and the United Kingdom in 1985, the exchange rate of the yen against the US dollar was forced to appreciate sharply. After \"Black Monday\" in October 1987, the yen appreciated to 120 yen/dollar, with an increase of 90% in 1988.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12ab4dd9acfe04f8aab569cb046a73ff\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"337\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Plaza agreement signing site</p><p>The sharp appreciation of the yen has dealt a devastating blow to Japan, which is mainly an export-oriented economy. Production costs have risen sharply, and high-quality enterprises have begun to flee overseas. In order to cope with the exchange rate crisis, the Japanese government has begun to cut interest rates sharply, hoping to \"send money\" so that enterprises can invest and set up factories at low cost.</p><p>But in fact, due to the long industrial return cycle, a large amount of yen lent at low interest rate has not been invested in the real economy, and the abundant liquidity of the money market has begun to flow into the housing market, stock market and luxury goods market with the \"strength\" of the yen's sharp appreciation after the Plaza Accord.</p><p>Since 1986, Japan's rapidly expanding economic prosperity has been called the \"Heisei Boom\". At the end of 1985, the Nikkei 225 stock price index closed at 13,083 points and at the end of 1989, it closed at 38,916 points. In four years, the Nikkei 225 index rose by 197.45%, and the total market value of stocks continued to expand to 896 trillion yen, accounting for 60% of Japan's gross national product that year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f5d38582a2e3123322a61e5b005f13f\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"312\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Japanese streets in the 1980s</p><p>The land price in Tokyo is soaring, and the land price of the Tokyo Imperial Palace of the Japanese Emperor exceeds the land valuation of the whole France; A 10,000 yen note in the Ginza area is thrown on the ground, and you can't buy the small piece of land it covers.</p><p>At the same time, the Japanese have become the world's largest consumers of luxury goods. They have swept watch shops, jewelry stores and wine houses all over the world. Foreign banks and securities companies have counted their money in the Japanese market.</p><p>After a large number of short-selling options on stock indexes that completely deviate from economic reality, the bubble broke out when it expanded to the extreme.</p><p>In October 1990, Japan's five-year bull market ended, and the stock market plummeted by 63.24%, creating the largest decline in the history of the Japanese stock market. The following year, the property market plummeted by 65%, bankrupt enterprises emerged in an endless stream, the number of unemployed people surged, and the wealth of the whole country shrank by nearly 50%.</p><p>At the same time, the short-term sharp recession has caused countless ordinary people who have no time to get out to be \"stuck\" by various capital investment targets, and a major economic reshuffle has allowed the wealth of the whole society to be transferred to the hands of a few winners.</p><p>Since then, the Japanese economy has been in a downturn for a long time.</p><p>The Nikkei Average Index went from a historical high of 38,957 on December 29, 1989 to a low of 6,994.9 on October 29, 2008, with a cumulative decline of more than 82%. In the next four years, the Nikkei Average Index still hovered around 10,000 points.</p><p>That is to say, since the late 1990s, the \"lost decade\" of Japanese economy has been reported in newspapers, and the problem has not been solved so far.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ced67142e550e77f5f84c394cba59c8d\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"383\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>What exactly has Japan lost in 30 years?</b></p><p>In 2010, as the Japanese economy still did not improve, the media began to put forward the \"lost twenty years\" of the Japanese economy.</p><p>In fact, \"twenty years\" is still not the end of Japan's economic downturn. Counting from the highest closing point in the history of the Nikkei 225 Index at 38,957, it has been falling all the way since then, falling to less than 10,000 points many times during this period, and it did not stop falling until 2017.</p><p>At the close of trading on July 7, 2022, the Nikkei 225 Index closed at 26,490.53 points, still more than 10,000 points away from its highest point.</p><p>The \"Plaza Accord\", which caused the yen to appreciate sharply, is considered by many people to be the root cause of the Great Depression caused by Japan's bubble economy.</p><p>However, in the analysis of this Great Depression, the criticism of the Plaza Accord is not consistent. Former Deputy Minister of the Ministry of Finance of Japan, Toyo Tian, even personally refuted this view.</p><p>Because from 1985 to 1990, with overseas investment under the strong yen, Japan's overseas net assets rose from more than 1 trillion US dollars to more than 3 trillion US dollars, that is, the so-called \"there is another Japan besides Japan\"--</p><p>The 300% appreciation of the yen in 10 years is accompanied by a huge increase in production costs and labor costs. In order to maintain their competitiveness, a large number of Japanese companies have to look overseas, which makes Japanese companies' capital flow out rapidly.</p><p>The rapidly appreciating yen and the increasingly anxious Japan-US trade war have also boosted this outflow-the strong yen is convenient for Japanese companies to invest and acquire overseas companies, while building factories abroad can bypass the US sanctions on \"Made in Japan\".</p><p>From 1985 to 1990, Japanese companies carried out a total of 21 huge overseas mergers and acquisitions worth more than 50 billion yen.</p><p>In 1989, Rockefeller Center bought by Mitsubishi for $1.4 billion, Universal Pictures bought by Panasonic for $6 billion, and Columbia Pictures bought by Sony for $3.4 billion-including the copyright of Spider-Man that Marvel Comics has not been able to recover now;</p><p>The Japanese are even ambitious to buy the United States as \"Japan's forty-first county\". Why does the city look so like Tokyo from the 70th floor of the InterContinental Los Angeles Hotel?</p><p>Because the Japanese bought half of the real estate here back then.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6420f38680bf983f828177b00418e180\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Japanese scholar Ito Gan wrote in Anger Across the Pacific that some Japanese people believe that Japan will become the next \"superpower\" and the government will lead the people to \"end the American era\".</p><p>It's just that these real estates belong to giant enterprises, consortia, speculators and wealthy foreign businessmen, but they don't belong to the Japanese people alone.</p><p>In 2020, \"Sankei Shimbun\" reported that the revenue of Japanese overseas local legal persons has increased by 220% in the past 20 years. According to OECD statistics, Japan's per capita purchasing power level in 2020 is only US $39,000, an increase of only US $39,000 from 1990. 4%.</p><p><b>1. Thirty years of unmoved income</b></p><p>After 1900, Japan's investment activities came to an abrupt end.</p><p>Banks go bankrupt, factories go bankrupt, mortgage disasters, and banks full of non-performing assets have to merge and reorganize; The sharply rising production costs have caused a large number of enterprises to close down, and the worst thing is ordinary people-they have been laid off in the tide of bankruptcies, their lifelong savings have volatilized in the bubble crisis, and they have to bear heavy mortgages.</p><p>However, after the collapse of the lifelong employment system and the merit sequence, they worked overtime in order to keep their jobs. Although the \"social animal\" culture was not born in Japan's bubble crisis, it has been solidified since then-accepting competition and the supremacy of production efficiency. The squeezing of gears on themselves has become the most helpless choice for Japanese migrant workers.</p><p>However, the torrent of social development pushed the Japanese forward, but it failed to give them the due reward.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11648f82b27132391bb1a6cef2c3432a\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"296\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In February 2021, the \"Diligence Statistics Survey\" released by the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare of Japan showed that Japan's per capita monthly salary in 2020 was 318,299 yen, or about 19,600 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.2%, the largest decrease in 12 years.</p><p>This figure was about 350,000 yuan in 1990, when the average annual income of Japanese people was 4.25 million yen. Based on the exchange rate at that time, the monthly salary was about 11,600 yuan.</p><p>The average annual income of \"standing still\" for 30 consecutive years has become the most violent \"contraceptive pill\" in Japan.</p><p><b>2. Irreversible aging</b></p><p>In 2020, Japan's total population ranked 11th in the world, falling out of the top ten for the first time since 1950. From 1974 to 2020, Japan's birth rate dropped from 1.86% to 0.67%, and it began to fall into negative population growth for 13 consecutive years around 2008.</p><p>At the same time, Japan's elderly population aged 65 and above reached 36.4 million, accounting for 29.1% of the total population.</p><p>The declining birthrate and aging have caused Japan to fall into a serious shortage of labor supply and slow down in labor productivity growth, thus causing the economic growth to continue to slow down:</p><p>\"From 1961 to 2020, Japan's working-age population growth rate, labor productivity growth rate and economic trend basically changed synchronously. From 1961 to 1975, the average growth rate of Japan's working-age population remained at a high level of 1.6%, and the growth rate of labor productivity reached a peak of 8.4%. The average growth rate of real GDP also remained at a high level of 7.7%; From 1976 to 1988, the working-age population and labor productivity maintained a low growth rate of 0.9% and 3.7% respectively, and the real GDP growth rate also dropped to 4.4%; From 1989 to 2020, the growth rates of working-age population and labor productivity dropped sharply from 0.9% and 4.4% to-0.8% and 1.1% respectively, and the real GDP growth rate dropped from 5.4% to-4.4%. \"</p><p>With the decline of the labor force and the decrease of tax revenue, the expenses such as pensions that need to be spent are rapidly expanding. Since 1990, the number of people living on pensions has been five times that of taxpayers.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c92a0dfa8f71abcdb41b554124294a7\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"302\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In 2004, Japan launched the pension reform, increasing the tax revenue by 0.354% every year. By 2017, the pension paid by taxpayers had accounted for 18.3% of their annual income, which became a heavy burden for the Japanese people.</p><p>The ranking of Japan's Human Development Index (which measures per capita GDP, education, and medical care) dropped from the first place in the world in 1990 to the 19th place in the world in 2020.</p><p>At the same time, Japanese young people have a negative attitude towards life, low material desire and lack of motivation for struggle due to the decline in expected income, resulting in \"hikikomori\". According to the definition of the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare of Japan, hikikomori are people who stay at home for more than 6 months and almost cut off contact with the outside world. According to the data of the Survey on Living Conditions of the Cabinet Office of Japan, there are 541,000 hikikomori aged 15-39 and 40-64, respectively.</p><p>The consumption and house purchase demand of the elderly are far lower than those of young people, and young people seriously lack consumption desire, which makes it difficult to significantly increase total consumption. Japan has fallen into a \"low desire society\".</p><p><b>3. Lifelong QE, but always weak</b></p><p>In 2021, Japan's total GDP of 4,937.4 billion US dollars will fall from the \"5 prefix\", but it is still an economic power that stands out from Europe and ranks as the third largest economy in the world. It doesn't seem to be bad.</p><p>But in fact, Japan's GDP reached 5.55 trillion US dollars in 1995. At that time, the ratio of Japan's GDP to the GDP of the United States was 71.34%. In 2021, this ratio became 21.46%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0823be1f503a8cdff0d86e9ba57b90cf\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"231\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Compared with the glory of the past, today's Japan is indeed somewhat embarrassed.</p><p>At the same time, Japan's macro leverage ratio also leads the world. According to the latest data from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), at the end of the second quarter of 2021, the macro leverage ratios of various countries were 286.2% in the United States, 284.3% in the Eurozone, and 416.5% in Japan.</p><p>The huge debt scale comes from decades of Japanese quantitative easing.</p><p>Quantitative easing is a Japanese innovation in the field of finance.</p><p>In 1998, the Bank of Japan began to implement the policy of zero interest rate and quantitative easing for the first time, that is, to regulate economic activities by controlling the currency supply.</p><p>In 2013, Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda launched a monetary policy stimulus plan to boost inflation.</p><p>Since 2013, the yen has continued to depreciate against the US dollar, and exports have achieved a substantial increase; At the same time, the Japanese benchmark interest rate has been falling all the way, and the ten-year Treasury Bond interest rate even dropped to a negative number in 2016.</p><p>At the same time, the Bank of Japan began to purchase ETFs (exchange-traded funds) on a large scale, with an average annual ETF purchase scale close to 4 trillion yen. By 2021, the Bank of Japan's stocks will account for more than 80% of stock ETFs, accounting for more than 80% of the total market value of the Tokyo Stock Exchange.</p><p>Although the Nikkei 225 index has strengthened all the way from around 8,000 points in 2012, and even broke through the 30,000-point mark in February 2021, this still seems to be a mirror-like bubble boom because of the huge amount injected by the Bank of Japan. The base currency has neither raised inflation nor driven economic growth.</p><p>In terms of economic structure, except for core basic raw materials, Japan still maintains its barrier advantage, and almost all other industries are hesitating. The markets of automobiles, shipbuilding, machine tools, and electronics industries are all being divided up by the United States, China, South Korea and other countries, and there are few achievements in emerging industries.</p><p>At present, the number of Japanese unicorn companies is only 6, which lags far behind the 554, 180, 64, 43, and 26 in the United States, China, India, Britain, and Germany, and their valuations are all less than US $2 billion.</p><p>At the same time, Japan's debt has expanded rapidly. As of the end of December 2021, Japan's national debt, composed of Treasury Bond, borrowings and short-term government securities, reached 1,218.4 trillion yen, and the per capita debt of Japanese citizens was approximately 9.71 million yen, or approximately RMB 534573 yuan.</p><p>However, at a time when central banks in the United States, Britain, and Europe have begun to tighten their pace, the Bank of Japan has not changed its loose monetary policy.</p><p><b>\"Against the market\" easing, unlimited money printing, yen falling streak</b></p><p>The yen's losing streak began in March.</p><p>After the Federal Reserve's rate hike landed in March and released signals that it would increase rate hike and accelerate shrinking balance sheet in the future, both Britain and Europe began to accelerate the tightening of monetary policy, but the Bank of Japan did the opposite and insisted on maintaining quantitative easing policy.</p><p>On March 28th, the Bank of Japan issued a press release announcing that it would launch a \"continuous designated price market operation\" measure to curb the rise of interest rates from March 29th to 31st, that is, to purchase public bonds from private financial institutions in unlimited amounts at designated interest rates.</p><p>On the same day, the yen exchange rate plunged 1.38%.</p><p>On April 20th, less than a month later, the Bank of Japan announced an unlimited purchase of 10-year Treasury Bond to defend the 0.25% yield ceiling of 10-year Japanese Treasury Bond, which once again pushed the depreciation of the yen.</p><p>Some experts believe that since the depreciation of the yen is beneficial to Japan's export-oriented economy, the Bank of Japan has always regarded the loose monetary environment as an important means to boost market expectations, especially when it has just entered the new fiscal year, it is even more difficult for the Bank of Japan to tighten monetary policy.</p><p>But can easing save Japan's economy?</p><p>In fact, Japan's trade structure is unstable. Since the Abe government came to power and introduced the unlimited stimulus policy, the total export volume has declined continuously from 2012 to 2015, and only maintained a trade surplus in 2016 and 2017.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b2490580bd25519041d5aef1bb5c3c0\" tg-width=\"525\" tg-height=\"263\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Recently, global crude oil and raw material prices have soared, and the depreciation of the yen has raised the costs of Japanese companies and broadened the channels for imported inflation. At the same time, according to the \"Value-added Trade Statistics\" released by the OECD, the added value created in Japan has dropped from 94% in 1995 to 83% in 2018, a decrease of 11%. Japan's related high value-added products and services have It is increasingly difficult to offset its rising production costs.</p><p>The only beneficiary is Japanese local speculators. With the sharp landing of the Federal Reserve, U.S. bond yields continue to soar, and the spread between U.S. and Japanese Treasury Bond has become wider and wider, so local speculators have begun to short-sell Japanese yen on a large scale., borrowing yen to buy arbitrage of U.S. bonds.</p><p>What about ordinary people?</p><p>Rising prices have led to rising living costs and weakened consumption power, and the \"lost thirty years\" seems to be postponed again-the depreciation of the yen, which was recognized as \"beneficial to the economy\" by the Bank of Japan, has never effectively boosted Japan's economic growth for many years, but has prevented the Japanese economy from escaping from the large-scale financial easing policy for more than ten years.</p><p>Thirty years ago, then central bank governor Mie Yasu warned the government that a country must not survive by blowing economic bubbles, otherwise it will be a great harm to the country.</p><p>So shortly after he took office, Japan implemented a tightening monetary policy, greatly raised the loan interest rate and actively punctured the bubble. This hard landing plunged Japan into decades of depression, but it was often regarded by later generations as the decisive decision of \"a strong man breaking his wrist\".</p><p>It's just that the car in front has been overturned, and the car in front is unknown.</p><p>Thirty years later, Japan seems to be still the same Japan.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/vyE5FKltsfEpcN7v5P6r4w\">风暴眼工作室</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab6491f7a764c5c5f68017952b8c2931","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/vyE5FKltsfEpcN7v5P6r4w","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1172335974","content_text":"7月8日，日本前首相安倍晋三遭遇枪击的消息震惊全世界。据央视报道，当地时间8日，日本前首相安倍晋三当天上午在奈良发表演讲时中枪 。据悉，安倍晋三在上救护车时还有意识，目前安倍晋三已经没有生命体征。日元汇率也受到了影响，截至7月8日11：30，美元兑日元跌幅扩大至0.47%，报135.37，日元有所升值。安倍遇刺，日元为何会突然升值？或许与其任期内力主推动的“安倍经济学”有关。安倍晋三2012年底上台后加速实施的一系列刺激经济政策，最值得注目的就是宽松货币政策，日元汇率开始加速贬值。今年以来，日元汇率持续下跌态势更加明显。6月13日，日元兑美元汇率一度跌破135日元兑换1美元关口，创下约24年的新低。而从2021年初至今的一年多时间内，日元相对美元已经大幅贬值超过25%。作为传统避险货币持续大跌，让日债和日元资产开始被大幅抛售。虽然日本央行行长黑田东彦重申了他的观点，即日本央行必须维持其大规模刺激计划，以支撑脆弱的经济复苏。但对于普通日本人，脆弱的经济复苏是否需要用日元的大幅贬值来支撑还是值得商榷，毕竟日本作为一个进口大国，能源对外依存度高达88%，粮食自给率仅有37%。日元贬值带来的大宗商品价格抬升，将直接影响市民的生活。尤其是大幅宽松了这么多年，可从1990年日本经济崩溃以来，日本平均年GDP增长率不足1%。宽高了房产、宽起了物价，独独没有宽起来居民的可支配收入，人们多少缺乏点信心。在已经经历了“失落的十年”、\"失落的二十年\"、“失落的三十年”之后，日本的失落眼看着要奔向亚特兰蒂斯的那个时间维度去了。第四个十年，日本又是否能绝地翻盘呢？安倍和他的“安倍经济学”虽然安倍晋三在2020年8月就已经辞任首相，但日元如今的大幅贬值却和他的“安倍经济学”联系紧密。2012年底，安倍晋三再次担任日本首相，随即抛出“拼经济”路线，被媒体热炒为“安倍经济学”。所谓“安倍经济学”，是通过实验性质的货币政策(简称QQE)、积极财政政策和经济结构改革来解决日本经济问题的政策组合。包括“三大策略”：其一，提出日本史上最大规模的量化宽松（QE）货币政策，央行每月购买国债7.5万亿日元；其二，突破前任政府预算总额70万亿日元的扩张性财政政策；其三，囊括《跨太平洋战略经济伙伴协定》（TPP）、放松管制以唤起民间投资和促进创新等在内的一揽子增长战略。安倍经济学是为了解决1990年代以后日本经济不断低迷而做出的最新努力。那么实施效果如何呢？全球宏观投机的一篇分析文章指出，安倍经济学是一个伟大的经济实验，日本金融家和政治家打破成见，用结构调整、财政和货币政策三管齐下的方法提升日本潜在经济增长率，克服通货紧缩。实验的前三年，获得了相当成功。文章同时也指出，“安倍经济学”2016到2020年则表现暗淡。新冠疫情冲击下部分安倍经济学的目标得以实现，尤其是通胀预期、日元汇率、真实利率和股票价格等，但是同期的潜在产出成长并不佳，证明了结构改革推进不力。中国社会科学院日本研究所副所长张季风认为，安倍在经济治理上的成绩大家有目共睹，但是也有较为严重的问题。其中最严重的问题就是财政状况困难，这个局面始终没有得到改变。中国现代国际关系研究院东北亚研究所副研究员刘云认为，若仅从日本GDP来看，会有所误解，认为安倍经济学不太成功。但如果从整体上看，日本经济是一个向上的姿态，例如日本的工资有增加、大企业利润增速不错，所以日本经济形势是有所好转的。“失落”始于1990“安倍经济学”的初衷是为了挽救日本持续低迷的经济。而“失落的十年”最早被提出，则是1990年日本股市泡沫破灭。在这场让日本一蹶不振的泡沫大破灭之前的十数年，日本曾是“缔造奇迹的国家”。从早期的棉纺织等劳动密集型企业开始积累资本，再到后来以制造业为核心产业，积极扩大投资、引进国外先进技术，从战后的废墟里迅速重建起本国的工业体系。到1964年，东京奥运会更是成为衔接日本经济发展转型的重要标志，由于大规模基建对钢铁的需求以及奥运会开幕对彩电的需求，日本的钢铁、机电行业蓬勃发展，日本经历了一个完整的“用衬衫换飞机”到“日本制造”的发展阶段。1965年，日本输出美国的钢铁占到了美国进口总量一半，1968年，日本成为了仅次美国的世界第二大经济体。与此同时，日本牢牢抓住了新一代的产业革命，汽车、钢铁、电信、半导体、制药全面制霸美国市场，日立、NEC、富士通、三菱和东芝群雄并起。而美国在当年对日的连年贸易赤字中，产业巨头们一片连年亏损，英特尔甚至一度濒临倒闭。在被日货打得找不着北的窘境之下，美国不顾脸面地发起了一场国人如今看起来很眼熟的贸易战——从1981年开始，行销全球的日系汽车开始被美国课以重税，并且在出口额度上被加以限制。同时，美国以日方“存在倾销行为”为由对日本的电脑、电视等高科技产品征收100%的关税，日本的半导体被设置出口价格下限、日本的芯片被征收100%惩罚性关税。美国议员直播砸碎日本产品此外，日系企业的高管被以“产业间谍罪”为名拘捕，日本被美国指责为“汇率操纵国”、从美国窃取知识产权，并被要求加大对美国农产品的进口力度、取消对外企不利的贸易条款、让日本在纺织品、钢铁、电视和机床等行业都实行自愿出口限制，同时进行工厂转移和产业升级……在不断指责日本通过国家扶持产业政策的同时，美国却在1988年出台新的贸易法，启用“超级301”条款——公然立法干预日本的产业与贸易政策，迫使日本进行制度性改革。1989年日美开始“日美结构协议”谈判，就经济政策、制度及企业行为等进行磋商，促使日本在流通体制、商业惯例等方面进行开放性改革：例如把住房作为战略性产业，进一步开放流通体制；进一步开放国内市场，按照自由贸易的原则重组进出口体制。截至1989年，美国贸易代表总计向日本发起了24例301条款案件调查，几乎全部由日本政府做出了让步。同时，由于1985年美国、日本、联邦德国、法国和英国达成的“广场协议”，日元兑美元汇率被迫大幅升值。1987年10月的“黑色星期一”之后，日元升值到120日元/美元，1988年度升幅高达90%。广场协议签订现场大幅升值的日元对以出口型经济为主的日本造成了毁灭性的打击，生产成本急剧上涨、优质企业开始逃向海外，为了应对汇率危机，日本政府开始大幅降息，寄希望于“发钱”让企业可以低成本去投资办厂。可实际上，由于实业回报周期过长，低利率贷出大量的日元并没有被投入到到实体经济，货币市场的充裕流动性，随着日元在广场协议后大幅升值的“强势”开始大量流入房市、股市以及奢侈品市场。1986 年开始，日本飞速膨胀的经济繁荣被称为“平成景气”，1985年末日经225股价指数收于13083点， 1989年末收于38916点，四年间日经225指数累计上涨197.45%，并且股票总市值继续膨胀至896万亿日元，占日本当年国民生产总值的60%。80年代的日本街头东京的地价则是坐地飞升，日本天皇的东京皇居土地价格就超过了整个法国的土地估价；银座地区一张1万日元的纸币扔在地上，也买不到它所覆盖的那一小片土地。同时，日本人成了全球最大的奢侈品消费国，他们横扫全球的手表店、珠宝店以及红酒酒庄，外资银行与证券公司在日本市场数钱数到手软。与经济现实完全背离的大批股指沽空期权之后，是泡沫膨胀到极致时爆发。1990年10月，日本长达5年的牛市结束，股市暴跌63.24%，创造了日本股市历史上最大的下跌幅度。次年，楼市暴跌65%，破产企业层出不穷，失业人群人数激增，整个国家财富缩水了近50%。同时，短期的大幅衰退让无数来不及抽身的普通人被各项资本投资标的物“套牢”，一场经济大洗牌让全社会的财富被转移至少数赢家手中。此后，日本经济开始长期处于低迷状态。日经平均指数由1989年12月29日历史高位38957，到2008年10月29日最低6994.9，累积跌幅逾82%，其后4年日经平均指数仍然始终徘徊在10,000点左右。也就是从90年代末开始，日本经济“失去的十年””开始不断见诸报端，并至今难题未解。三十年里，日本具体失去了什么？2010年，由于日本经济仍无起色，媒体开始提出日本经济“失去的二十年”。实际上，“二十年”依旧不是日本经济颓靡的终点。自38957的日经225指数历史最高收盘点位开始算起，此后一路下行，期间多次跌至1万点一下，直至2017年才止跌。2022年7月7日收盘，日经225指数收盘报26490.53点，距其最高点仍有一万多点的差距。那个让日元急剧升值的“广场协议”，被许多人认为是日本泡沫经济引发大萧条的根源。但对于这次大萧条的分析中，对于广场协议的批判并不是一致的。原日本大藏省副相行天丰雄甚至亲自出面驳斥过这一观点。因为在1985年~1990年，借强势日元下的海外投资，日本海外净资产从1万多亿美元上升到3万多亿美元，也就是所谓的“日本之外，还有一个日本”——日元10年升值300%的同时，是生产成本与人力成本的巨幅抬升。为了保持自己的竞争力，大量日企不得不将目光投向海外，这使得日企资本急速外流。升值迅速的日元与日渐焦灼的日美贸易战也助推了这一外流——强势的日元方便日企投资收购海外企业，同时在外建厂可以绕开美国对“日本制造”的制裁。从1985年到1990年，日本企业总共进行了21起500亿日元以上的巨型海外并购案。1989年，三菱公司14亿美元买下的洛克菲勒中心、松下60亿美元买下的美国环球影业、索尼公司以34亿美元买下哥伦比亚影片公司——其中包括漫威如今都没能收回的蜘蛛侠版权；日本人甚至雄心壮志地要将美国买成“日本的第四十一个县”，为什么从洛杉矶洲际酒店70楼看去的城市那么像东京？因为当年日本人买下了这里一半的地产。日本学者伊藤感在《横跨太平洋的愤怒》中写到，一些日本人相信日本会成为下一个\"超级大国\"，政府会带领民众\"终结美国的时代\"。只是这些地产，属于巨企、属于财团、属于投机者、属于外籍富商，但独独不属于日本的人民。2020年《产经新闻》报道，日本海外当地法人的营收在近20年内增长了220%，而按照OECD的统计数据，日本2020年的人均购买力水平仅为3.9万美元，比1990年仅增长了4%。1、三十年不动的收入1900年以后，日本的投资活动戛然而止。银行破产、工厂倒闭、房贷成灾，充斥着不良资产的银行不得不合并重组；剧烈抬升的生产成本让企业大批倒闭，最惨的还是普通人——在倒闭潮中被裁员、一辈子的积蓄在泡沫危机中挥发、还要背上沉重的房贷。而在终身雇佣制和年功序列崩解后，为了保住工作而拼命加班，“社畜”文化虽然不诞生于日本的泡沫危机，但却在这之后得到了固化——接受竞争和生产效率至上的齿轮对自己的压榨，成了日本打工人最无奈的选择。但社会发展的洪流推进着日本人前进，却没能给他们应有的回报。2021年2月，日本厚生劳动省发布的“勤劳统计调查”显示，日本2020年的人均月薪为31万8299日元，约合1.96万元人民币，同比减少1.2%，创下12年以来最大降幅。而这一数字在1990年时是35万元左右，当时的日本人平均年收入是425万日元，以当时的汇率计算，月薪约合1.16万人民币。连续30年“原地踏步”的平均年收入，成了日本最猛烈的“避孕药”。2、难以逆转的老龄化2020年，日本总人口居世界11位，是1950年以来首次跌出前十。从1974到2020年，日本出生率由1.86%降至0.67%，在2008年左右开始陷入连续13年的人口负增长。同时，日本65岁及以上老年人口达3640万，在总人口中所占比例达29.1%。少子老龄化，导致日本陷入严重的劳动力供给不足、劳动生产率增速趋缓，进而使经济增速持续放缓：“1961-2020年日本劳动年龄人口增速、劳动生产率增速与经济走势基本同步变化。伴随1961-1975年日本劳动年龄人口平均增速维持在1.6%的高位、劳动生产率增速达到8.4%峰值，实际GDP平均增速也维持在7.7%的高位；1976-1988年劳动年龄人口、劳动生产率分别维持0.9%、3.7%的低速增长，实际GDP增速也降至4.4%；1989-2020年劳动年龄人口、劳动生产率增速分别从0.9%、4.4%大幅降至-0.8%、1.1%，实际GDP增速从5.4%降至-4.4%。”在劳动人口下降，税收不断减少的情况下，需要支出的养老金等费用却在急速扩大，自1990年起，依附养老金生活的人数已经是纳税人的5倍。2004年日本启动了养老金改革，每年以0.354%的涨幅提高税收，到2017年纳税人缴纳的养老金已占到个人年收入的18.3%，成了日本民众沉重的负担。日本人类发展指数的排名（测量人均GDP，教育，以及医疗），则从1990年的世界第一掉落至2020年的世界第十九。同时，日本年轻人因预期收入下降而形成的生活态度消极、物质欲望低下、缺乏奋斗动力的风气，由此产生“蛰居族”。根据日本厚生劳动省定义，蛰居族为持续6个月以上待在家里不出门，几乎和外界断绝联系的人群，根据日本内阁府《生活状况相关调查》数据，15-39岁、40-64岁人口蛰居族分别达54.1、61.3万人。老年人的消费和购房需求远低于年轻人，年轻人又严重缺乏消费欲望，使得总消费难以大幅提升，日本陷入“低欲望社会”。3、终身QE，却始终乏力2021年，日本以49374亿美元的GDP总量跌下“5字头”，但依旧是傲视欧洲，名列世界第三大经济体的经济大国，看起来似乎并不差。但实际上，日本1995年GDP就已经达到了5.55万亿美元，当时日本GDP与美国GDP的比率是71.34%，2021年，这个比率变成了21.46%。与过往的辉煌相比，如今的日本确实有些困窘。同时，日本的宏观杠杆率也在全球领先。国际清算银行（BIS）最新数据显示，2021 年二季度末，各国宏观杠杆率中美国为286.2%、欧元区为284.3%，而日本为416.5%。庞大的债务规模来源于日本数十年的量化宽松。量化宽松，是日本在融领域的一个创新。1998年，日本央行本央行第一次开始实行零利率和量化宽松政策，即通过对通货供应量的控制来调节经济活动。2013年，日本央行行长黑田东彦推出提振通胀的货币政策刺激计划。从2013年开始，日元兑美元持续贬值，出口实现了较大幅度增长；同时日本基准利率一路下行，十年期国债利率在2016年甚至下降至负数。同时日本央行开始大规模购入ETF(交易所交易基金)，年均ETF购买规模接近4万亿日元，到2021年，日本央行持有股票占股票ETF的80%以上，占东京证券交易所总市值的5%以上。虽然日经225指数从2012年的八千点附近，一路走强，在2021年2月甚至突破了三万点大关，但这似乎仍然是一场镜花水月的泡沫化繁荣，因为日本央行注入的巨量基础货币既没有拉高通胀率，也没有拉动经济增长。经济结构上，日本除核心基础原材料依然保持壁垒优势，其他产业几乎都在裹足不前。汽车、造船、机床、电子产业的市场都在被美、中、韩等国瓜分，新兴产业上更是少有建树。目前日本独角兽企业数量仅6家，大幅落后于美、中、印、英、德、的554、180、64、43、26家，且估值均小于20亿美元。同时，日本的债务急剧扩张，截至2021年12月底，由国债、借款及政府短期证券构成的日本国家债务达到1218.4万亿日元，日本国民人均负债约为971万日元，约合人民币53万4573元。但在美、英、欧等央行均已开始紧缩步伐的当下，日本央行却仍旧未改变宽松的货币政策。“逆市”宽松、无限量印钞、日元连跌日元的连跌始于3月份。在3月美联储加息落地，并释放后续将加大加息幅度和加快缩表的信号后，英、欧均开始加速收紧货币政策，但日本央行却反其道而行之，坚持维持量化宽松政策。3 月 28 日，日本央行发布新闻稿宣布，将在3月 29-31 日间，发动抑制利率上升的“连续性指定价格市场操作”措施，即以指定的利率，无限量从民间金融机构手中收购公债。当天，日元汇率重挫1.38％。4月20日，不到一个月的时间内日本央行又宣布无限量购买10年期国债，以捍卫10年期日本国债0.25%的收益率上限，再度推动了日元的贬值。有专家认为，由于日元贬值有利于日本以出口为导向的经济，日本央行一直将宽松的货币环境作为提振市场预期的重要手段，尤其是在刚刚进入新财年的当下，日本央行更难有可能收紧货币政策。但宽松能挽救日本经济吗？实际上，日本贸易结构并不稳定，自安倍政府上台推出无限刺激政策后，出口总额在2012~2015年连续下降，仅2016、2017年两年保持了贸易顺差状态。近期全球原油和原材料价格飙升，日元贬值更是抬高了日本企业的成本，拓宽了输入型通胀的渠道。同时，根据OECD发布的“附加值贸易统计”数据显示，日本国内创造的附加值已经从1995年的94％降至2018年的83％，降低了11％，日本相关高附加值产品和服务已经越来越难抵消其不断提升的生产成本。唯一得益的，是日本本土的投机者们，随着美联储大幅落地，美债收益率持续飙涨，美日国债利差已经越来越大，于是本土的投机者们开始大规模沽空日元，借日元买美债的套利。对于老百姓来说呢？物价提升导致生活成本上升、消费力削弱，“失落的三十年”似乎又要延期——被日本央行认定“有利于经济”的日元贬值，多年来从未有效提振过日本的经济增长，反而让日本经济十数年来无法从大规模金融缓和政策中脱出。三十年前，时任央行行长三重野康告诫政府：一个国家绝对不能靠吹经济泡沫生存，否则将是国家的大害。于是在他上台不久后日本就实行了紧缩性的货币政策，大幅度提高了贷款利率，主动刺破泡沫。这场硬着陆让日本陷入了数十年的萧条，却也常被后人视为“壮士断腕”的果决。只是前车已覆，后未知更。三十年过去，日本似乎还是那个日本。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2106,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9044862282,"gmtCreate":1656731800646,"gmtModify":1676535886315,"author":{"id":"4118888674291832","authorId":"4118888674291832","name":"Hui 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