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2023-04-01
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A Bull Market Is Coming: Here's Warren Buffett's Investing Advice
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2023-03-28
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23:23","market":"us","language":"en","title":"A Bull Market Is Coming: Here's Warren Buffett's Investing Advice","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2323795936","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Your strategy can make or break your portfolio right now.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>The past year has been rough for most people, and it's easy to feel pessimistic about the future. A whopping 83% of U.S. adults say they're feeling stressed about inflation, according to a 2022 survey from the American Psychological Association. And with many people worried about an impending recession, it's possible things could get worse before they get better.</p><p>However, there is a light at the end of the tunnel. A bull market is on the way, and legendary investor Warren Buffett can offer some smart advice about how to handle your investments right now.</p><h2>1. Don't get hung up on short-term market movements</h2><p>When the market is rocky, it's easy to focus on all the short-term ups and downs. But what really matters is the long-term performance.</p><p>Timing the market effectively is next to impossible, so nobody can say for certain when this bear market will end and the next bull market will begin. But we do know that no downturn lasts forever, so it's only a matter of time before the market rebounds.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45dff17d25ce3b607f4e3341c07e5654\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"410\"/></p><p>^SPX data by YCharts.</p><p>In 2008, at the height of the Great Recession, Warren Buffett wrote an opinion piece for <em>The New York Times</em>. He wrote:</p><blockquote>I can't predict the short-term movements of the stock market. I haven't the faintest idea as to whether stocks will be higher or lower a month or a year from now. What is likely, however, is that the market will move higher, perhaps substantially so, well before either sentiment or the economy turns up. So if you wait for the robins, spring will be over.</blockquote><p>It's not easy watching your portfolio drop in value. But in times like these, it's more important than ever to keep a long-term outlook. The market will recover eventually, and the best thing you can do right now is ride out the storm.</p><h2>2. Keep investing during the slumps</h2><p>Stock market downturns may not seem like the best time to invest, but they can actually be a fantastic buying opportunity. When the market is in a slump, stock prices are lower -- sometimes substantially so.</p><p>Many stocks have watched their prices drop by 50% or more over the past year, which means now is your chance to load up on quality investments at a steep discount. Then when the market recovers, you could see lucrative earnings.</p><p>This strategy is one of the most effective ways to build wealth in the stock market and is also a Buffett-approved approach. As he wrote in the <em>Times</em> article.</p><blockquote>A simple rule dictates my buying: Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful. To be sure, investors are right to be wary of highly leveraged entities or businesses in weak competitive positions. But fears regarding the long-term prosperity of the nation's many sound companies make no sense. These businesses will indeed suffer earnings hiccups, as they always have. But most major companies will be setting new profit records 5, 10 and 20 years from now.</blockquote><h2>3. Focus on quality companies</h2><p>Keeping a long-term outlook and investing during the market's low points are two important steps to building wealth, but the third part of the equation is arguably the most important: Invest in the right stocks.</p><p>The investments you choose will make or break your portfolio. Shaky stocks will have a tougher time recovering from market downturns, and there's a greater risk you'll lose money. But strong stocks from healthy companies are far more likely to rebound.</p><p>In <strong>Berkshire Hathaway</strong>'s 2021 letter to shareholders, Buffett emphasized that he and business partner Charlie Munger focus heavily on investing in quality companies. "[W]e own stocks based upon our expectations about their long-term <em>business</em> performance and <em>not</em> because we view them as vehicles for timely market moves," he writes. "That point is crucial: Charlie and I are <em>not</em> stock-pickers; we are business-pickers."</p><p>Right now is not an easy time to be an investor, but that doesn't mean it's a bad time to invest. By choosing quality investments, continuing to invest during the market's slumps, and holding those stocks for the long term, you can not only survive this downturn but generate wealth that lasts a lifetime.</p></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>A Bull Market Is Coming: Here's Warren Buffett's Investing Advice</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nA Bull Market Is Coming: Here's Warren Buffett's Investing Advice\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-03-31 23:23 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/03/30/bull-market-coming-warren-buffett-investing-advice/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The past year has been rough for most people, and it's easy to feel pessimistic about the future. A whopping 83% of U.S. adults say they're feeling stressed about inflation, according to a 2022 survey...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/03/30/bull-market-coming-warren-buffett-investing-advice/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BRK.A":"伯克希尔","BRK.B":"伯克希尔B"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/03/30/bull-market-coming-warren-buffett-investing-advice/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2323795936","content_text":"The past year has been rough for most people, and it's easy to feel pessimistic about the future. A whopping 83% of U.S. adults say they're feeling stressed about inflation, according to a 2022 survey from the American Psychological Association. And with many people worried about an impending recession, it's possible things could get worse before they get better.However, there is a light at the end of the tunnel. A bull market is on the way, and legendary investor Warren Buffett can offer some smart advice about how to handle your investments right now.1. Don't get hung up on short-term market movementsWhen the market is rocky, it's easy to focus on all the short-term ups and downs. But what really matters is the long-term performance.Timing the market effectively is next to impossible, so nobody can say for certain when this bear market will end and the next bull market will begin. But we do know that no downturn lasts forever, so it's only a matter of time before the market rebounds.^SPX data by YCharts.In 2008, at the height of the Great Recession, Warren Buffett wrote an opinion piece for The New York Times. He wrote:I can't predict the short-term movements of the stock market. I haven't the faintest idea as to whether stocks will be higher or lower a month or a year from now. What is likely, however, is that the market will move higher, perhaps substantially so, well before either sentiment or the economy turns up. So if you wait for the robins, spring will be over.It's not easy watching your portfolio drop in value. But in times like these, it's more important than ever to keep a long-term outlook. The market will recover eventually, and the best thing you can do right now is ride out the storm.2. Keep investing during the slumpsStock market downturns may not seem like the best time to invest, but they can actually be a fantastic buying opportunity. When the market is in a slump, stock prices are lower -- sometimes substantially so.Many stocks have watched their prices drop by 50% or more over the past year, which means now is your chance to load up on quality investments at a steep discount. Then when the market recovers, you could see lucrative earnings.This strategy is one of the most effective ways to build wealth in the stock market and is also a Buffett-approved approach. As he wrote in the Times article.A simple rule dictates my buying: Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful. To be sure, investors are right to be wary of highly leveraged entities or businesses in weak competitive positions. But fears regarding the long-term prosperity of the nation's many sound companies make no sense. These businesses will indeed suffer earnings hiccups, as they always have. But most major companies will be setting new profit records 5, 10 and 20 years from now.3. Focus on quality companiesKeeping a long-term outlook and investing during the market's low points are two important steps to building wealth, but the third part of the equation is arguably the most important: Invest in the right stocks.The investments you choose will make or break your portfolio. Shaky stocks will have a tougher time recovering from market downturns, and there's a greater risk you'll lose money. But strong stocks from healthy companies are far more likely to rebound.In Berkshire Hathaway's 2021 letter to shareholders, Buffett emphasized that he and business partner Charlie Munger focus heavily on investing in quality companies. \"[W]e own stocks based upon our expectations about their long-term business performance and not because we view them as vehicles for timely market moves,\" he writes. \"That point is crucial: Charlie and I are not stock-pickers; we are business-pickers.\"Right now is not an easy time to be an investor, but that doesn't mean it's a bad time to invest. By choosing quality investments, continuing to invest during the market's slumps, and holding those stocks for the long term, you can not only survive this downturn but generate wealth that lasts a lifetime.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":153,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9941360393,"gmtCreate":1679983315613,"gmtModify":1679985381290,"author":{"id":"4121237375795032","authorId":"4121237375795032","name":"ILSL","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/68f1e3c52d7d67dffe9c3c8d6cff8d40","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4121237375795032","authorIdStr":"4121237375795032"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"OK","listText":"OK","text":"OK","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9941360393","repostId":"2322928222","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":169,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9941287641,"gmtCreate":1680279035884,"gmtModify":1680279065244,"author":{"id":"4121237375795032","authorId":"4121237375795032","name":"ILSL","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/68f1e3c52d7d67dffe9c3c8d6cff8d40","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4121237375795032","authorIdStr":"4121237375795032"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9941287641","repostId":"2323795936","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":153,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9941360393,"gmtCreate":1679983315613,"gmtModify":1679985381290,"author":{"id":"4121237375795032","authorId":"4121237375795032","name":"ILSL","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/68f1e3c52d7d67dffe9c3c8d6cff8d40","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4121237375795032","authorIdStr":"4121237375795032"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"OK","listText":"OK","text":"OK","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9941360393","repostId":"2322928222","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2322928222","pubTimestamp":1679980793,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2322928222?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-28 13:19","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tech Stocks Are Expensive Now. They Might Not Be as Safe as They Look","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2322928222","media":"marketwatch","summary":"Technology stocks have raced higher after a terrible 2022, making them quite expensive. The time for","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align:left;\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a51d26eff0bdb366fb8827cfd179330\" tg-width=\"639\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Technology stocks have raced higher after a terrible 2022, making them quite expensive. The time for caution has come.</p><p>The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite index has gained about 13% this year, compared with a gain of less than 4% for the S&P 500. Concern about banks, rather than spectacular results from tech companies, is the main reason.</p><p>Fear that more banks will fail, and that obtaining credit will be harder, is making investors worry about economic growth and keeping a lid on broader stock market gains. A weaker economy would mean less inflation, allowing the Federal Reserve to ease back on raising interest, which has sent long-dated bond yields lower, boosting the value of future profits.</p><p>That matters for tech because investors buy those growth stocks mainly for the earnings the companies are expected to deliver years from now. Lower rates boost the current discounted value of those profits, meaning investors may be willing to pay more.</p><p>At the same time, tech companies’ relatively brisk growth makes profits a bit less sensitive to changes in demand across the broader economy.</p><p>The strong start to the year for tech is a reversal from 2022, when the Nasdaq fell 32% as the Fed raised rates to fight inflation, sending bond yields higher.</p><p>But given the recent rally, buying tech stocks may not be so safe at this point.</p><p>The most glaring reason is that they now look fairly expensive. The Nasdaq’s aggregate forward price/earnings ratio is about 25.4 times, about 44% above the S&P 500’s 17.6 times, according to FactSet. The Nasdaq usually trades at a premium, but this is a particularly wide valuation gap.</p><p>It isn’t far from that seen in August 2020, the peak of the pandemic-era rally, when the Nasdaq traded at a 48% premium to the S&P 500. For context, the Nasdaq has traded at a premium of less than 20% at times during the past decade.</p><p>To be sure, the Nasdaq’s so-called PEG ratio, a measure that divides the price/earnings multiple by the rate of earnings growth so that the valuation can take into account how fast profits are growing, is relatively appealing. With a price/earnings ratio of 25.4 times and aggregate per-share profits expected to grow at 17% annually for the next three years, the figure comes out to about 1.5 times.</p><p>That’s fairly low, considering that the S&P 500 trades at a PEG ratio of just over two times. At current levels, investors are paying less for the earnings growth the Nasdaq will deliver than for the anticipated profit growth for the S&P 500.</p><p>A counterargument is that Nasdaq’s PEG is only as low as it looks if the earnings growth is actually as high as Wall Street expects it to be. Part of the strong expected growth for tech comes from a just over 20% increase in EPS for 2024 after what could be a tough 2023. It would decline to 15% by 2025.</p><p>The growth rates of many tech trends, such as e-commerce, digital payments, entertainment streaming, and even cloud services, are still high, but decelerating.</p><p>“These mega cap [tech] companies are subject to the law of large numbers,” said Doug Peta, chief U.S. investment strategist at BCA Research. “It’s difficult to keep growing at a fast rate.”</p><p>Even if tech remains particularly expensive, the short term could bring more of a rally. Banking’s problems should drag on the stock market for some time, especially if evidence builds that difficulty in borrowing is hurting the economy.</p><p>That would drive more money into tech names. “One thing that helps growth’s [tech stocks’] cause is that the worries for the broader market have emanated from worries in one particular component of the market, the banks,” Peta said.</p><p>The problem is that while buying now is a bet that the tech trade has a little more juice in it for the near term, the sector looks way less attractive now than it did a few months ago. It is far more vulnerable to poor performance.</p></body></html>","source":"mwatch_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tech Stocks Are Expensive Now. They Might Not Be as Safe as They Look</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTech Stocks Are Expensive Now. They Might Not Be as Safe as They Look\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-03-28 13:19 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/tech-stocks-expensive-sp-500-risk-ec590be9?mod=newsviewer_click><strong>marketwatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Technology stocks have raced higher after a terrible 2022, making them quite expensive. The time for caution has come.The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite index has gained about 13% this year, ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/tech-stocks-expensive-sp-500-risk-ec590be9?mod=newsviewer_click\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"513500":"标普500ETF","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","BK4588":"碎股","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","OEX":"标普100","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/tech-stocks-expensive-sp-500-risk-ec590be9?mod=newsviewer_click","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2322928222","content_text":"Technology stocks have raced higher after a terrible 2022, making them quite expensive. The time for caution has come.The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite index has gained about 13% this year, compared with a gain of less than 4% for the S&P 500. Concern about banks, rather than spectacular results from tech companies, is the main reason.Fear that more banks will fail, and that obtaining credit will be harder, is making investors worry about economic growth and keeping a lid on broader stock market gains. A weaker economy would mean less inflation, allowing the Federal Reserve to ease back on raising interest, which has sent long-dated bond yields lower, boosting the value of future profits.That matters for tech because investors buy those growth stocks mainly for the earnings the companies are expected to deliver years from now. Lower rates boost the current discounted value of those profits, meaning investors may be willing to pay more.At the same time, tech companies’ relatively brisk growth makes profits a bit less sensitive to changes in demand across the broader economy.The strong start to the year for tech is a reversal from 2022, when the Nasdaq fell 32% as the Fed raised rates to fight inflation, sending bond yields higher.But given the recent rally, buying tech stocks may not be so safe at this point.The most glaring reason is that they now look fairly expensive. The Nasdaq’s aggregate forward price/earnings ratio is about 25.4 times, about 44% above the S&P 500’s 17.6 times, according to FactSet. The Nasdaq usually trades at a premium, but this is a particularly wide valuation gap.It isn’t far from that seen in August 2020, the peak of the pandemic-era rally, when the Nasdaq traded at a 48% premium to the S&P 500. For context, the Nasdaq has traded at a premium of less than 20% at times during the past decade.To be sure, the Nasdaq’s so-called PEG ratio, a measure that divides the price/earnings multiple by the rate of earnings growth so that the valuation can take into account how fast profits are growing, is relatively appealing. With a price/earnings ratio of 25.4 times and aggregate per-share profits expected to grow at 17% annually for the next three years, the figure comes out to about 1.5 times.That’s fairly low, considering that the S&P 500 trades at a PEG ratio of just over two times. At current levels, investors are paying less for the earnings growth the Nasdaq will deliver than for the anticipated profit growth for the S&P 500.A counterargument is that Nasdaq’s PEG is only as low as it looks if the earnings growth is actually as high as Wall Street expects it to be. Part of the strong expected growth for tech comes from a just over 20% increase in EPS for 2024 after what could be a tough 2023. It would decline to 15% by 2025.The growth rates of many tech trends, such as e-commerce, digital payments, entertainment streaming, and even cloud services, are still high, but decelerating.“These mega cap [tech] companies are subject to the law of large numbers,” said Doug Peta, chief U.S. investment strategist at BCA Research. “It’s difficult to keep growing at a fast rate.”Even if tech remains particularly expensive, the short term could bring more of a rally. Banking’s problems should drag on the stock market for some time, especially if evidence builds that difficulty in borrowing is hurting the economy.That would drive more money into tech names. “One thing that helps growth’s [tech stocks’] cause is that the worries for the broader market have emanated from worries in one particular component of the market, the banks,” Peta said.The problem is that while buying now is a bet that the tech trade has a little more juice in it for the near term, the sector looks way less attractive now than it did a few months ago. It is far more vulnerable to poor performance.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":169,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}