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LLin
2022-12-13
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@koolgal:🏆🏆🏆Apple is my pick for World Cup Stock Top Gainer 🏆🏆🏆
LLin
2022-09-20
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Treasury Yields Jump Before Fed Meeting, Stocks Rebound
LLin
2022-09-20
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QQQ: Summer Glory To Fade Off In Fall Obscurity?
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is my pick for World Cup Stock Top Gainer 🏆🏆🏆","htmlText":"🌟🌟🌟<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 🌈🌈🌈Apple is my pick for World Cup Stock Top Gainer as it is the strongest and largest company in the US by market capitalisation at USD 2.26 Trillion. It is the World's Most Valuable Company in 2022. What is Apple's secret sauce of success? Why does Warren Buffett called Apple \"probably the best business I know in the world \"? I believe it is a combination of factors. Firstly Apple has a wide brand moat and an ecosystem that makes it difficult for a consumer to switch easily. Apple had generated a whopping USD 99.8 billion on net income and USD111.4 billion in free cash flow over the last 12 months. That is up from USD 57.4 billion and USD 73.4 billion f","listText":"🌟🌟🌟<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 🌈🌈🌈Apple is my pick for World Cup Stock Top Gainer as it is the strongest and largest company in the US by market capitalisation at USD 2.26 Trillion. It is the World's Most Valuable Company in 2022. What is Apple's secret sauce of success? Why does Warren Buffett called Apple \"probably the best business I know in the world \"? I believe it is a combination of factors. Firstly Apple has a wide brand moat and an ecosystem that makes it difficult for a consumer to switch easily. Apple had generated a whopping USD 99.8 billion on net income and USD111.4 billion in free cash flow over the last 12 months. That is up from USD 57.4 billion and USD 73.4 billion f","text":"🌟🌟🌟$Apple(AAPL)$ 🌈🌈🌈Apple is my pick for World Cup Stock Top Gainer as it is the strongest and largest company in the US by market capitalisation at USD 2.26 Trillion. It is the World's Most Valuable Company in 2022. What is Apple's secret sauce of success? Why does Warren Buffett called Apple \"probably the best business I know in the world \"? I believe it is a combination of factors. Firstly Apple has a wide brand moat and an ecosystem that makes it difficult for a consumer to switch easily. Apple had generated a whopping USD 99.8 billion on net income and USD111.4 billion in free cash flow over the last 12 months. That is up from USD 57.4 billion and USD 73.4 billion f","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/32ddb8822bc1b1bd8d1e5a251a04164a","width":"1080","height":"2340"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9272cf364036c1d2465ea49e82935600","width":"1080","height":"2340"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/10a116153c64498e242b2f8ef5aa994d","width":"1080","height":"2340"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9923957484","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":534,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9910659270,"gmtCreate":1663628200190,"gmtModify":1676537302075,"author":{"id":"4121469500068312","authorId":"4121469500068312","name":"LLin","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4121469500068312","authorIdStr":"4121469500068312"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanks","listText":"Thanks","text":"Thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9910659270","repostId":"2268896593","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2268896593","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1663601055,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2268896593?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-19 23:24","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Treasury Yields Jump Before Fed Meeting, Stocks Rebound","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2268896593","media":"Reuters","summary":"NEW YORK, Sept 19 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury benchmark 10-year yields hit their highest in more than a decade on Monday and shares rebounded despite the message that the Federal Reserve means business ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>NEW YORK, Sept 19 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury benchmark 10-year yields hit their highest in more than a decade on Monday and shares rebounded despite the message that the Federal Reserve means business tackling inflation ahead of another likely hefty interest rate hike this week.</p><p>The yield on 10-year Treasuries hit 3.518%, its highest level since April 2011. The higher rate helped strengthen the dollar and weaken gold prices as other central banks also are expected to hike rates this week.</p><p>Markets started to get the message from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole banking symposium in August, but then investors remained in denial until it became clear inflation was stubbornly high, said George Goncalves, head of U.S. macro strategy at MUFG Securities Americas Inc in New York.</p><p>The past three Fed meetings there have been relief rallies in bonds and equities as markets interpreted Powell as being dovish. But a rally this time is unlikely when policymakers conclude a two-day meeting on Wednesday, he said.</p><p>"People are wising up to the fact that the Fed means business," he said. "The only way to contain this inflation is to get ahead of it, and they're still behind the curve. Peak hawkishness is getting closer, but we're not there yet."</p><p>Markets are fully pricing in a hike of 75 basis points, with futures showing a 20% chance of a full percentage point increase on Wednesday, according to CME's FedWatch Tool.</p><p>Markets also indicate a real chance that rates could hit 4.5% as the Fed is forced to tip the economy into a recession to subdue inflation.</p><p>The two-year yield , a barometer of future inflation expectations, climbed to a fresh almost 15-year high of 3.970%. European government bond yields also rose.</p><p>"Asset performance during this Fed tightening cycle is very different from the norm for other rate hike episodes," said David Chao, a global market strategist at Invesco.</p><p>"Usually, the Fed tightens when the economy is thriving and most assets do well. However, most assets have suffered this time, perhaps due to the surge in inflation and abrupt policy change."</p><p>Trading was thin in Britain as markets were closed in observance of the state funeral of Queen Elizabeth.</p><p>On Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.31%, the S&P 500 gained 0.25% and the Nasdaq Composite added 0.21%.</p><p>European shares also bounced back after the broad STOXX index slid as much as 1% to a more than 10-week low, dragged down by rate-sensitive tech stocks and French shares which were hurt by the collapse of a planned merger between two TV companies.</p><p>The STOXX was last up 0.04%. Earlier in the day, Asian stocks also lost ground.</p><p><b>TIGHTENING TIME</b></p><p>It is not just in the United States that rate rises are expected. Most of the central banks meeting this week - from Switzerland to South Africa - are expected to hike, with markets split on whether the Bank of England will move by 50 or 75 basis points.</p><p>China's central bank went its own way though, and cut a repo rate by 10 basis points to support its ailing economy. Chinese blue chips still finished 0.1% lower.</p><p>The other exception is the Bank of Japan, also due to meet this week and which has shown no sign of abandoning its uber-easy yield curve policy despite the drastic slide in the yen.</p><p>The dollar rose 0.36% against the yen , having backed away from the recent 24-year peak of 144.99 in the face of increasingly strident intervention warnings from Japanese policymakers.</p><p>The dollar index rose 0.274%, with the euro down 0.18% to $0.9997.</p><p>"We expect the USD to keep trending higher this week to a new cyclical high above 110.8pts because of the deteriorating outlook for the world economy," said CBA analysts in a note.</p><p>The ascent of the dollar and yields has been a drag for gold, which was down 0.78% at $1,662 an ounce after hitting lows not seen since April 2020 last week.</p><p>Oil prices also tumbled, pressured by the stronger dollar, and subdued growth outlook. U.S. crude fell 0.55% to $84.64 per barrel and Brent was at $90.93, down 0.46% on the day.</p><p>Spot gold dropped 0.3% to $1.670,82 an ounce.</p><p>Bitcoin , which also moves in line with investors' risk appetite, hit a three-month low of $18,271 and was last down 0.45% to $19.332,00.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Treasury Yields Jump Before Fed Meeting, Stocks Rebound</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTreasury Yields Jump Before Fed Meeting, Stocks Rebound\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-09-19 23:24</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>NEW YORK, Sept 19 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury benchmark 10-year yields hit their highest in more than a decade on Monday and shares rebounded despite the message that the Federal Reserve means business tackling inflation ahead of another likely hefty interest rate hike this week.</p><p>The yield on 10-year Treasuries hit 3.518%, its highest level since April 2011. The higher rate helped strengthen the dollar and weaken gold prices as other central banks also are expected to hike rates this week.</p><p>Markets started to get the message from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole banking symposium in August, but then investors remained in denial until it became clear inflation was stubbornly high, said George Goncalves, head of U.S. macro strategy at MUFG Securities Americas Inc in New York.</p><p>The past three Fed meetings there have been relief rallies in bonds and equities as markets interpreted Powell as being dovish. But a rally this time is unlikely when policymakers conclude a two-day meeting on Wednesday, he said.</p><p>"People are wising up to the fact that the Fed means business," he said. "The only way to contain this inflation is to get ahead of it, and they're still behind the curve. Peak hawkishness is getting closer, but we're not there yet."</p><p>Markets are fully pricing in a hike of 75 basis points, with futures showing a 20% chance of a full percentage point increase on Wednesday, according to CME's FedWatch Tool.</p><p>Markets also indicate a real chance that rates could hit 4.5% as the Fed is forced to tip the economy into a recession to subdue inflation.</p><p>The two-year yield , a barometer of future inflation expectations, climbed to a fresh almost 15-year high of 3.970%. European government bond yields also rose.</p><p>"Asset performance during this Fed tightening cycle is very different from the norm for other rate hike episodes," said David Chao, a global market strategist at Invesco.</p><p>"Usually, the Fed tightens when the economy is thriving and most assets do well. However, most assets have suffered this time, perhaps due to the surge in inflation and abrupt policy change."</p><p>Trading was thin in Britain as markets were closed in observance of the state funeral of Queen Elizabeth.</p><p>On Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.31%, the S&P 500 gained 0.25% and the Nasdaq Composite added 0.21%.</p><p>European shares also bounced back after the broad STOXX index slid as much as 1% to a more than 10-week low, dragged down by rate-sensitive tech stocks and French shares which were hurt by the collapse of a planned merger between two TV companies.</p><p>The STOXX was last up 0.04%. Earlier in the day, Asian stocks also lost ground.</p><p><b>TIGHTENING TIME</b></p><p>It is not just in the United States that rate rises are expected. Most of the central banks meeting this week - from Switzerland to South Africa - are expected to hike, with markets split on whether the Bank of England will move by 50 or 75 basis points.</p><p>China's central bank went its own way though, and cut a repo rate by 10 basis points to support its ailing economy. Chinese blue chips still finished 0.1% lower.</p><p>The other exception is the Bank of Japan, also due to meet this week and which has shown no sign of abandoning its uber-easy yield curve policy despite the drastic slide in the yen.</p><p>The dollar rose 0.36% against the yen , having backed away from the recent 24-year peak of 144.99 in the face of increasingly strident intervention warnings from Japanese policymakers.</p><p>The dollar index rose 0.274%, with the euro down 0.18% to $0.9997.</p><p>"We expect the USD to keep trending higher this week to a new cyclical high above 110.8pts because of the deteriorating outlook for the world economy," said CBA analysts in a note.</p><p>The ascent of the dollar and yields has been a drag for gold, which was down 0.78% at $1,662 an ounce after hitting lows not seen since April 2020 last week.</p><p>Oil prices also tumbled, pressured by the stronger dollar, and subdued growth outlook. U.S. crude fell 0.55% to $84.64 per barrel and Brent was at $90.93, down 0.46% on the day.</p><p>Spot gold dropped 0.3% to $1.670,82 an ounce.</p><p>Bitcoin , which also moves in line with investors' risk appetite, hit a three-month low of $18,271 and was last down 0.45% to $19.332,00.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2268896593","content_text":"NEW YORK, Sept 19 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury benchmark 10-year yields hit their highest in more than a decade on Monday and shares rebounded despite the message that the Federal Reserve means business tackling inflation ahead of another likely hefty interest rate hike this week.The yield on 10-year Treasuries hit 3.518%, its highest level since April 2011. The higher rate helped strengthen the dollar and weaken gold prices as other central banks also are expected to hike rates this week.Markets started to get the message from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole banking symposium in August, but then investors remained in denial until it became clear inflation was stubbornly high, said George Goncalves, head of U.S. macro strategy at MUFG Securities Americas Inc in New York.The past three Fed meetings there have been relief rallies in bonds and equities as markets interpreted Powell as being dovish. But a rally this time is unlikely when policymakers conclude a two-day meeting on Wednesday, he said.\"People are wising up to the fact that the Fed means business,\" he said. \"The only way to contain this inflation is to get ahead of it, and they're still behind the curve. Peak hawkishness is getting closer, but we're not there yet.\"Markets are fully pricing in a hike of 75 basis points, with futures showing a 20% chance of a full percentage point increase on Wednesday, according to CME's FedWatch Tool.Markets also indicate a real chance that rates could hit 4.5% as the Fed is forced to tip the economy into a recession to subdue inflation.The two-year yield , a barometer of future inflation expectations, climbed to a fresh almost 15-year high of 3.970%. European government bond yields also rose.\"Asset performance during this Fed tightening cycle is very different from the norm for other rate hike episodes,\" said David Chao, a global market strategist at Invesco.\"Usually, the Fed tightens when the economy is thriving and most assets do well. However, most assets have suffered this time, perhaps due to the surge in inflation and abrupt policy change.\"Trading was thin in Britain as markets were closed in observance of the state funeral of Queen Elizabeth.On Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.31%, the S&P 500 gained 0.25% and the Nasdaq Composite added 0.21%.European shares also bounced back after the broad STOXX index slid as much as 1% to a more than 10-week low, dragged down by rate-sensitive tech stocks and French shares which were hurt by the collapse of a planned merger between two TV companies.The STOXX was last up 0.04%. Earlier in the day, Asian stocks also lost ground.TIGHTENING TIMEIt is not just in the United States that rate rises are expected. Most of the central banks meeting this week - from Switzerland to South Africa - are expected to hike, with markets split on whether the Bank of England will move by 50 or 75 basis points.China's central bank went its own way though, and cut a repo rate by 10 basis points to support its ailing economy. Chinese blue chips still finished 0.1% lower.The other exception is the Bank of Japan, also due to meet this week and which has shown no sign of abandoning its uber-easy yield curve policy despite the drastic slide in the yen.The dollar rose 0.36% against the yen , having backed away from the recent 24-year peak of 144.99 in the face of increasingly strident intervention warnings from Japanese policymakers.The dollar index rose 0.274%, with the euro down 0.18% to $0.9997.\"We expect the USD to keep trending higher this week to a new cyclical high above 110.8pts because of the deteriorating outlook for the world economy,\" said CBA analysts in a note.The ascent of the dollar and yields has been a drag for gold, which was down 0.78% at $1,662 an ounce after hitting lows not seen since April 2020 last week.Oil prices also tumbled, pressured by the stronger dollar, and subdued growth outlook. U.S. crude fell 0.55% to $84.64 per barrel and Brent was at $90.93, down 0.46% on the day.Spot gold dropped 0.3% to $1.670,82 an ounce.Bitcoin , which also moves in line with investors' risk appetite, hit a three-month low of $18,271 and was last down 0.45% to $19.332,00.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":348,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9910650341,"gmtCreate":1663628158883,"gmtModify":1676537302037,"author":{"id":"4121469500068312","authorId":"4121469500068312","name":"LLin","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4121469500068312","authorIdStr":"4121469500068312"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanks","listText":"Thanks","text":"Thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9910650341","repostId":"1158905038","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1158905038","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1663591588,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1158905038?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-19 20:46","market":"us","language":"en","title":"QQQ: Summer Glory To Fade Off In Fall Obscurity?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1158905038","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryIn this note, we will discuss recent price action in Invesco's QQQ ETF, along with the factor","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Summary</p><ul><li>In this note, we will discuss recent price action in Invesco's QQQ ETF, along with the factors driving this action.</li><li>Furthermore, I share a fresh outlook for the QQQ now that my call for a retest of June lows is looking nailed on to materialize.</li><li>I rate QQQ 'Neutral' at $290.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53444cd062deb64dcc2310c4eee26ce0\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"637\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Dilok Klaisataporn</span></p><p>Introduction: Where Do We Stand?</p><p>Invesco's QQQ (NASDAQ:QQQ) is an exchange-traded fund that tracks the tech-heavy Nasdaq-100 index. After a scintillating summer rally off of June lows, tech stocks and equity markets, in general, have resumed their downtrend. The lasttime I wrote on QQQ was back in early June, and here's what I said at the time:</p><blockquote>In the near term, I see QQQ running up to the $320-330 range, but over the medium term, we are likely to decline to $250-260. These targets are based on fundamental, quantitative, and technical analysis shared in today's note. With a near-term upside of 3-8% and a medium-term downside of ~20-25%, I'm not too fond of QQQ's risk/reward here. Therefore, I am neutral on QQQ at current levels.</blockquote><blockquote><i>Source:Is QQQ A Buy Or Sell During The Dip? It's Complicated</i></blockquote><p>After initially dipping to ~$270 by mid-June, the QQQ went on a smashing rally to reach the $335 level by mid-August. On 15th August 2022, I wrote the following in my newsletter:</p><blockquote>A series of higher highs and higher lows seem to reflect a strong bullish reversal; however, below-average trading volumes are unnerving. We are close to a resistance zone in the $335-345 range, and on the weekly chart, QQQ is testing the top end of the falling wedge pattern we have traded in for the last nine months. A rejection from this zone could quite easily trigger a retest of June lows.</blockquote><blockquote><i>Source:TQI Weekly - Issue #5: A New Bull Market Or Just Another Bear Market Rally</i></blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/159a6c2ed14077cf70319e8af4b8ccfb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>QQQ's chart as of mid-August (WeBull Desktop)</span></p><p>Now, I am not sharing this history to showcase some extraordinary ability to predict the stock market. Instead, I strongly believe that nobody knows where the market is going in the near term. All we can do is analyze the fundamental, quantitative, and technical data to get a better understanding of what could happen in the market. And then orient our investing operations to benefit from this probabilistic understanding of the market environment.</p><p>Sticky inflation, rising interest rates, hawkish monetary policy, and slowing economic activity do not portend strong equity market returns for the foreseeable future. On Tuesday, the CPI inflation print came in hotter-than-expected at 8.3%, surprising market participants betting on a drop off in inflation. However, on the ground, inflation is slowing down [e.g., prices at the gas station are down significantly in recent weeks, home prices are declining, used auto prices are way off their peak, and there are many other instances]. Now, the lagging rents data (~30-40% of CPI) is set to make the headline inflation numbers look bad for some time to come.</p><p>While renowned investors like Ray Dalio and Jeff Gundlach called out the rising probability of a recession during this week (and predicted another 20-25% decline in S&P500), the Fed seems to be focusing on countering inflation - moving full steam ahead with its quantitative tightening program. The expectations for the Fed's September meeting (on 21st and 22nd) are now pointing toward a 75-100 bps hike in the federal funds rate, and the bond market seems to be pricing in more hawkishness from Fed chair Jay Powell, as treasury rates continue to shift up rapidly.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6d4fb12a3da252cd53a6b5e96f4a380\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>YCharts</span></p><p>Legendary investor Warren Buffett's quote comes to mind:</p><blockquote>Interest rates are to asset prices what gravity is to the apple. When there are low interest rates, there is a very low gravitational pull on asset prices. The most important item over time in valuation is obviously interest rates.</blockquote><p>As interest rates have shot up in 2022, equities have been getting re-rated lower, and after a 28% YTD decline, the P/E ratio for Invesco's QQQ ETF (QQQ) [an ETF tracking Nasdaq-100 index] has come down to ~22-23x. Looking at historical data from the past ten years, the QQQ seems like a no-brainer buy at around 20x earnings.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a4da36ad357f2be93d1e18fbcb5edbc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"328\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>GuruFocus</span></p><p>However, persistently-high inflation, rising interest rates, and slowing economic activity (amidst waning consumer confidence) are significant threats to corporate earnings and the valuation multiples attached to these earnings. Honestly, earnings may be the next shoe to drop in this market cycle, and Q3 & Q4 could bring a lot more volatility to the equity markets.</p><p>A Look At Some Recent Market Action</p><p>Broad market indices [S&P500 (SPX), Nasdaq-100 (NDX), and Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA)] got off to a strong start in September; however, volatility returned to Wall Street last week. On Tuesday, stocks took a tumble (SPY down ~4%, QQQ down ~5%) as inflation data came in hotter-than-expected - raising expectations of a 75-100 bps rate hike by the Fed at its September meeting and even more hawkishness from the Fed. After a couple of benign days on Wednesday and Thursday, the sell-off resumed on Friday, with all major indices closing in the red. With the Fed tightening into a slowing economy, the fears of an economic recession are growing.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0576618c7710bd346a4a0f9d24e86a0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"439\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>YCharts</span></p><p>At my recently launched marketplace service, The Quantamental Investor, we saw our GARP & Buyback-Dividend portfolios experience a negative ROIC of -1.42% and -1.54% over the last two weeks, with a big chunk of weakness coming from a sell-off in large to mega-cap tech stocks. Interestingly, the performance of small to mid-cap (higher growth) companies was superior to that of their larger counterparts. As of the close on Friday, TQI's Moonshot Growth portfolio had an ROIC of +3.76%, which was better than iShares Russell 1000 Growth ETF's (IWF) return of -1.86%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8806662e5af57a7b54a1a3e62a249693\" tg-width=\"905\" tg-height=\"264\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>At TQI, our playbook for this bear market is -</p><blockquote>Build long positions slowly and manage risk proactively.</blockquote><p>If equity prices continue to fall over the coming weeks and months, then our dollar cost averaging plan will prove to be an effective risk management strategy. At TQI, we started our core portfolios with a 50% cash position, which we intend to deploy in a staggered way over the next ten months.</p><p>Where Is The Market Headed Next?</p><p>I don't know where the market will be a week, a month, or a quarter from now. However, considering valuations and technical charts, I think a retest of QQQ's June lows of ~$270 is very likely in the near term.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a46914a4f61975720b899626da4c4047\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"478\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>WeBull Desktop</span></p><p>If we fail to hold these levels, QQQ may be in for a decline to the $215-235 range. And I say this because the tech generals (largest components) in QQQ - Apple and Microsoft - have a potential downside of ~30-40% each. Read my latest articles on this subject to understand my reasoning for this call:</p><ul><li>Microsoft: Insider Selling, Frothy Valuation, Worsening Fundamentals, And More [September 15th, 2022]</li><li>Apple Vs. Microsoft Vs. Treasury Bonds: The Battle Of Safe Havens Round-2 [August 25th, 2022]</li><li>Apple Vs. Microsoft Vs. Treasury Bonds: The Battle Of Safe Havens [April 20th, 2022]</li></ul><p>We are getting closer to the Q3 (fall) earnings season, and that's when we could see a resolution on either side of the ~$270 level. With rising interest rates, the P/E trading multiples on QQQ are unlikely to expand in the foreseeable future (unless the earnings drop off, in which case the price will likely follow). Overall, I am not too fond of QQQ's medium-term risk-reward from current levels.</p><p>Final Thoughts</p><p>The Fed is hawkish as ever, and its balance sheet roll-off has just started. At some point, the Fed will break something in the economy, and then we will see yet another pivot. However, investors may have to undergo a lot more pain in equity markets before this happens. As the old adage goes -</p><blockquote><b>Don't Fight The Fed.</b></blockquote><p>And we are abiding by this rule in all of TQI's core portfolios by running our investing operations with ~50% in cash and deploying this cash slowly in a staggered fashion over a long period of time.</p><p>Over the near term, the QQQ is likely headed to June lows of ~$270, which is a downside of -7%. With the near and medium-term risk/reward being unattractive, I continue to rate QQQ 'Neutral' at ~$290.</p><p>While broad market [QQQ] is not enticing, there are loads of individual stocks offering asymmetric risk/reward opportunities. Being selective, contrarian, and right could yield spectacular returns for investors buying during periods of heightened volatility like the one we are experiencing today. I'll leave you with this thought - "Invest actively and manage risk proactively."</p><p><b>Key Takeaway:</b> I am neutral on QQQ at current levels.</p><p>Thank you for reading, and happy investing. Please feel free to share any questions, thoughts, or concerns in the comments section below.</p><p><i>This article was written by Ahan Vashi, </i><i>for reference only.</i></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>QQQ: Summer Glory To Fade Off In Fall Obscurity?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nQQQ: Summer Glory To Fade Off In Fall Obscurity?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-19 20:46 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4541722-qqq-summer-glory-fade-off-fall-obscurity><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryIn this note, we will discuss recent price action in Invesco's QQQ ETF, along with the factors driving this action.Furthermore, I share a fresh outlook for the QQQ now that my call for a retest...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4541722-qqq-summer-glory-fade-off-fall-obscurity\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NDX":"纳斯达克100指数",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","QQQ":"纳指100ETF"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4541722-qqq-summer-glory-fade-off-fall-obscurity","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1158905038","content_text":"SummaryIn this note, we will discuss recent price action in Invesco's QQQ ETF, along with the factors driving this action.Furthermore, I share a fresh outlook for the QQQ now that my call for a retest of June lows is looking nailed on to materialize.I rate QQQ 'Neutral' at $290.Dilok KlaisatapornIntroduction: Where Do We Stand?Invesco's QQQ (NASDAQ:QQQ) is an exchange-traded fund that tracks the tech-heavy Nasdaq-100 index. After a scintillating summer rally off of June lows, tech stocks and equity markets, in general, have resumed their downtrend. The lasttime I wrote on QQQ was back in early June, and here's what I said at the time:In the near term, I see QQQ running up to the $320-330 range, but over the medium term, we are likely to decline to $250-260. These targets are based on fundamental, quantitative, and technical analysis shared in today's note. With a near-term upside of 3-8% and a medium-term downside of ~20-25%, I'm not too fond of QQQ's risk/reward here. Therefore, I am neutral on QQQ at current levels.Source:Is QQQ A Buy Or Sell During The Dip? It's ComplicatedAfter initially dipping to ~$270 by mid-June, the QQQ went on a smashing rally to reach the $335 level by mid-August. On 15th August 2022, I wrote the following in my newsletter:A series of higher highs and higher lows seem to reflect a strong bullish reversal; however, below-average trading volumes are unnerving. We are close to a resistance zone in the $335-345 range, and on the weekly chart, QQQ is testing the top end of the falling wedge pattern we have traded in for the last nine months. A rejection from this zone could quite easily trigger a retest of June lows.Source:TQI Weekly - Issue #5: A New Bull Market Or Just Another Bear Market RallyQQQ's chart as of mid-August (WeBull Desktop)Now, I am not sharing this history to showcase some extraordinary ability to predict the stock market. Instead, I strongly believe that nobody knows where the market is going in the near term. All we can do is analyze the fundamental, quantitative, and technical data to get a better understanding of what could happen in the market. And then orient our investing operations to benefit from this probabilistic understanding of the market environment.Sticky inflation, rising interest rates, hawkish monetary policy, and slowing economic activity do not portend strong equity market returns for the foreseeable future. On Tuesday, the CPI inflation print came in hotter-than-expected at 8.3%, surprising market participants betting on a drop off in inflation. However, on the ground, inflation is slowing down [e.g., prices at the gas station are down significantly in recent weeks, home prices are declining, used auto prices are way off their peak, and there are many other instances]. Now, the lagging rents data (~30-40% of CPI) is set to make the headline inflation numbers look bad for some time to come.While renowned investors like Ray Dalio and Jeff Gundlach called out the rising probability of a recession during this week (and predicted another 20-25% decline in S&P500), the Fed seems to be focusing on countering inflation - moving full steam ahead with its quantitative tightening program. The expectations for the Fed's September meeting (on 21st and 22nd) are now pointing toward a 75-100 bps hike in the federal funds rate, and the bond market seems to be pricing in more hawkishness from Fed chair Jay Powell, as treasury rates continue to shift up rapidly.YChartsLegendary investor Warren Buffett's quote comes to mind:Interest rates are to asset prices what gravity is to the apple. When there are low interest rates, there is a very low gravitational pull on asset prices. The most important item over time in valuation is obviously interest rates.As interest rates have shot up in 2022, equities have been getting re-rated lower, and after a 28% YTD decline, the P/E ratio for Invesco's QQQ ETF (QQQ) [an ETF tracking Nasdaq-100 index] has come down to ~22-23x. Looking at historical data from the past ten years, the QQQ seems like a no-brainer buy at around 20x earnings.GuruFocusHowever, persistently-high inflation, rising interest rates, and slowing economic activity (amidst waning consumer confidence) are significant threats to corporate earnings and the valuation multiples attached to these earnings. Honestly, earnings may be the next shoe to drop in this market cycle, and Q3 & Q4 could bring a lot more volatility to the equity markets.A Look At Some Recent Market ActionBroad market indices [S&P500 (SPX), Nasdaq-100 (NDX), and Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA)] got off to a strong start in September; however, volatility returned to Wall Street last week. On Tuesday, stocks took a tumble (SPY down ~4%, QQQ down ~5%) as inflation data came in hotter-than-expected - raising expectations of a 75-100 bps rate hike by the Fed at its September meeting and even more hawkishness from the Fed. After a couple of benign days on Wednesday and Thursday, the sell-off resumed on Friday, with all major indices closing in the red. With the Fed tightening into a slowing economy, the fears of an economic recession are growing.YChartsAt my recently launched marketplace service, The Quantamental Investor, we saw our GARP & Buyback-Dividend portfolios experience a negative ROIC of -1.42% and -1.54% over the last two weeks, with a big chunk of weakness coming from a sell-off in large to mega-cap tech stocks. Interestingly, the performance of small to mid-cap (higher growth) companies was superior to that of their larger counterparts. As of the close on Friday, TQI's Moonshot Growth portfolio had an ROIC of +3.76%, which was better than iShares Russell 1000 Growth ETF's (IWF) return of -1.86%.At TQI, our playbook for this bear market is -Build long positions slowly and manage risk proactively.If equity prices continue to fall over the coming weeks and months, then our dollar cost averaging plan will prove to be an effective risk management strategy. At TQI, we started our core portfolios with a 50% cash position, which we intend to deploy in a staggered way over the next ten months.Where Is The Market Headed Next?I don't know where the market will be a week, a month, or a quarter from now. However, considering valuations and technical charts, I think a retest of QQQ's June lows of ~$270 is very likely in the near term.WeBull DesktopIf we fail to hold these levels, QQQ may be in for a decline to the $215-235 range. And I say this because the tech generals (largest components) in QQQ - Apple and Microsoft - have a potential downside of ~30-40% each. Read my latest articles on this subject to understand my reasoning for this call:Microsoft: Insider Selling, Frothy Valuation, Worsening Fundamentals, And More [September 15th, 2022]Apple Vs. Microsoft Vs. Treasury Bonds: The Battle Of Safe Havens Round-2 [August 25th, 2022]Apple Vs. Microsoft Vs. Treasury Bonds: The Battle Of Safe Havens [April 20th, 2022]We are getting closer to the Q3 (fall) earnings season, and that's when we could see a resolution on either side of the ~$270 level. With rising interest rates, the P/E trading multiples on QQQ are unlikely to expand in the foreseeable future (unless the earnings drop off, in which case the price will likely follow). Overall, I am not too fond of QQQ's medium-term risk-reward from current levels.Final ThoughtsThe Fed is hawkish as ever, and its balance sheet roll-off has just started. At some point, the Fed will break something in the economy, and then we will see yet another pivot. However, investors may have to undergo a lot more pain in equity markets before this happens. As the old adage goes -Don't Fight The Fed.And we are abiding by this rule in all of TQI's core portfolios by running our investing operations with ~50% in cash and deploying this cash slowly in a staggered fashion over a long period of time.Over the near term, the QQQ is likely headed to June lows of ~$270, which is a downside of -7%. With the near and medium-term risk/reward being unattractive, I continue to rate QQQ 'Neutral' at ~$290.While broad market [QQQ] is not enticing, there are loads of individual stocks offering asymmetric risk/reward opportunities. Being selective, contrarian, and right could yield spectacular returns for investors buying during periods of heightened volatility like the one we are experiencing today. I'll leave you with this thought - \"Invest actively and manage risk proactively.\"Key Takeaway: I am neutral on QQQ at current levels.Thank you for reading, and happy investing. Please feel free to share any questions, thoughts, or concerns in the comments section below.This article was written by Ahan Vashi, for reference only.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":197,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9923594950,"gmtCreate":1670884759071,"gmtModify":1676538451127,"author":{"id":"4121469500068312","authorId":"4121469500068312","name":"LLin","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4121469500068312","authorIdStr":"4121469500068312"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9923594950","repostId":"9923957484","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9923957484,"gmtCreate":1670792776549,"gmtModify":1676538432691,"author":{"id":"3559581955535845","authorId":"3559581955535845","name":"koolgal","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c05274d88ffc0434623e57350c52c70a","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559581955535845","authorIdStr":"3559581955535845"},"themes":[],"title":"🏆🏆🏆Apple is my pick for World Cup Stock Top Gainer 🏆🏆🏆","htmlText":"🌟🌟🌟<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 🌈🌈🌈Apple is my pick for World Cup Stock Top Gainer as it is the strongest and largest company in the US by market capitalisation at USD 2.26 Trillion. It is the World's Most Valuable Company in 2022. What is Apple's secret sauce of success? Why does Warren Buffett called Apple \"probably the best business I know in the world \"? I believe it is a combination of factors. Firstly Apple has a wide brand moat and an ecosystem that makes it difficult for a consumer to switch easily. Apple had generated a whopping USD 99.8 billion on net income and USD111.4 billion in free cash flow over the last 12 months. That is up from USD 57.4 billion and USD 73.4 billion f","listText":"🌟🌟🌟<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 🌈🌈🌈Apple is my pick for World Cup Stock Top Gainer as it is the strongest and largest company in the US by market capitalisation at USD 2.26 Trillion. It is the World's Most Valuable Company in 2022. What is Apple's secret sauce of success? Why does Warren Buffett called Apple \"probably the best business I know in the world \"? I believe it is a combination of factors. Firstly Apple has a wide brand moat and an ecosystem that makes it difficult for a consumer to switch easily. Apple had generated a whopping USD 99.8 billion on net income and USD111.4 billion in free cash flow over the last 12 months. That is up from USD 57.4 billion and USD 73.4 billion f","text":"🌟🌟🌟$Apple(AAPL)$ 🌈🌈🌈Apple is my pick for World Cup Stock Top Gainer as it is the strongest and largest company in the US by market capitalisation at USD 2.26 Trillion. It is the World's Most Valuable Company in 2022. What is Apple's secret sauce of success? Why does Warren Buffett called Apple \"probably the best business I know in the world \"? I believe it is a combination of factors. Firstly Apple has a wide brand moat and an ecosystem that makes it difficult for a consumer to switch easily. Apple had generated a whopping USD 99.8 billion on net income and USD111.4 billion in free cash flow over the last 12 months. That is up from USD 57.4 billion and USD 73.4 billion f","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/32ddb8822bc1b1bd8d1e5a251a04164a","width":"1080","height":"2340"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9272cf364036c1d2465ea49e82935600","width":"1080","height":"2340"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/10a116153c64498e242b2f8ef5aa994d","width":"1080","height":"2340"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9923957484","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":534,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9910659270,"gmtCreate":1663628200190,"gmtModify":1676537302075,"author":{"id":"4121469500068312","authorId":"4121469500068312","name":"LLin","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4121469500068312","authorIdStr":"4121469500068312"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanks","listText":"Thanks","text":"Thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9910659270","repostId":"2268896593","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2268896593","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1663601055,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2268896593?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-19 23:24","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Treasury Yields Jump Before Fed Meeting, Stocks Rebound","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2268896593","media":"Reuters","summary":"NEW YORK, Sept 19 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury benchmark 10-year yields hit their highest in more than a decade on Monday and shares rebounded despite the message that the Federal Reserve means business ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>NEW YORK, Sept 19 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury benchmark 10-year yields hit their highest in more than a decade on Monday and shares rebounded despite the message that the Federal Reserve means business tackling inflation ahead of another likely hefty interest rate hike this week.</p><p>The yield on 10-year Treasuries hit 3.518%, its highest level since April 2011. The higher rate helped strengthen the dollar and weaken gold prices as other central banks also are expected to hike rates this week.</p><p>Markets started to get the message from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole banking symposium in August, but then investors remained in denial until it became clear inflation was stubbornly high, said George Goncalves, head of U.S. macro strategy at MUFG Securities Americas Inc in New York.</p><p>The past three Fed meetings there have been relief rallies in bonds and equities as markets interpreted Powell as being dovish. But a rally this time is unlikely when policymakers conclude a two-day meeting on Wednesday, he said.</p><p>"People are wising up to the fact that the Fed means business," he said. "The only way to contain this inflation is to get ahead of it, and they're still behind the curve. Peak hawkishness is getting closer, but we're not there yet."</p><p>Markets are fully pricing in a hike of 75 basis points, with futures showing a 20% chance of a full percentage point increase on Wednesday, according to CME's FedWatch Tool.</p><p>Markets also indicate a real chance that rates could hit 4.5% as the Fed is forced to tip the economy into a recession to subdue inflation.</p><p>The two-year yield , a barometer of future inflation expectations, climbed to a fresh almost 15-year high of 3.970%. European government bond yields also rose.</p><p>"Asset performance during this Fed tightening cycle is very different from the norm for other rate hike episodes," said David Chao, a global market strategist at Invesco.</p><p>"Usually, the Fed tightens when the economy is thriving and most assets do well. However, most assets have suffered this time, perhaps due to the surge in inflation and abrupt policy change."</p><p>Trading was thin in Britain as markets were closed in observance of the state funeral of Queen Elizabeth.</p><p>On Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.31%, the S&P 500 gained 0.25% and the Nasdaq Composite added 0.21%.</p><p>European shares also bounced back after the broad STOXX index slid as much as 1% to a more than 10-week low, dragged down by rate-sensitive tech stocks and French shares which were hurt by the collapse of a planned merger between two TV companies.</p><p>The STOXX was last up 0.04%. Earlier in the day, Asian stocks also lost ground.</p><p><b>TIGHTENING TIME</b></p><p>It is not just in the United States that rate rises are expected. Most of the central banks meeting this week - from Switzerland to South Africa - are expected to hike, with markets split on whether the Bank of England will move by 50 or 75 basis points.</p><p>China's central bank went its own way though, and cut a repo rate by 10 basis points to support its ailing economy. Chinese blue chips still finished 0.1% lower.</p><p>The other exception is the Bank of Japan, also due to meet this week and which has shown no sign of abandoning its uber-easy yield curve policy despite the drastic slide in the yen.</p><p>The dollar rose 0.36% against the yen , having backed away from the recent 24-year peak of 144.99 in the face of increasingly strident intervention warnings from Japanese policymakers.</p><p>The dollar index rose 0.274%, with the euro down 0.18% to $0.9997.</p><p>"We expect the USD to keep trending higher this week to a new cyclical high above 110.8pts because of the deteriorating outlook for the world economy," said CBA analysts in a note.</p><p>The ascent of the dollar and yields has been a drag for gold, which was down 0.78% at $1,662 an ounce after hitting lows not seen since April 2020 last week.</p><p>Oil prices also tumbled, pressured by the stronger dollar, and subdued growth outlook. U.S. crude fell 0.55% to $84.64 per barrel and Brent was at $90.93, down 0.46% on the day.</p><p>Spot gold dropped 0.3% to $1.670,82 an ounce.</p><p>Bitcoin , which also moves in line with investors' risk appetite, hit a three-month low of $18,271 and was last down 0.45% to $19.332,00.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Treasury Yields Jump Before Fed Meeting, Stocks Rebound</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTreasury Yields Jump Before Fed Meeting, Stocks Rebound\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-09-19 23:24</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>NEW YORK, Sept 19 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury benchmark 10-year yields hit their highest in more than a decade on Monday and shares rebounded despite the message that the Federal Reserve means business tackling inflation ahead of another likely hefty interest rate hike this week.</p><p>The yield on 10-year Treasuries hit 3.518%, its highest level since April 2011. The higher rate helped strengthen the dollar and weaken gold prices as other central banks also are expected to hike rates this week.</p><p>Markets started to get the message from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole banking symposium in August, but then investors remained in denial until it became clear inflation was stubbornly high, said George Goncalves, head of U.S. macro strategy at MUFG Securities Americas Inc in New York.</p><p>The past three Fed meetings there have been relief rallies in bonds and equities as markets interpreted Powell as being dovish. But a rally this time is unlikely when policymakers conclude a two-day meeting on Wednesday, he said.</p><p>"People are wising up to the fact that the Fed means business," he said. "The only way to contain this inflation is to get ahead of it, and they're still behind the curve. Peak hawkishness is getting closer, but we're not there yet."</p><p>Markets are fully pricing in a hike of 75 basis points, with futures showing a 20% chance of a full percentage point increase on Wednesday, according to CME's FedWatch Tool.</p><p>Markets also indicate a real chance that rates could hit 4.5% as the Fed is forced to tip the economy into a recession to subdue inflation.</p><p>The two-year yield , a barometer of future inflation expectations, climbed to a fresh almost 15-year high of 3.970%. European government bond yields also rose.</p><p>"Asset performance during this Fed tightening cycle is very different from the norm for other rate hike episodes," said David Chao, a global market strategist at Invesco.</p><p>"Usually, the Fed tightens when the economy is thriving and most assets do well. However, most assets have suffered this time, perhaps due to the surge in inflation and abrupt policy change."</p><p>Trading was thin in Britain as markets were closed in observance of the state funeral of Queen Elizabeth.</p><p>On Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.31%, the S&P 500 gained 0.25% and the Nasdaq Composite added 0.21%.</p><p>European shares also bounced back after the broad STOXX index slid as much as 1% to a more than 10-week low, dragged down by rate-sensitive tech stocks and French shares which were hurt by the collapse of a planned merger between two TV companies.</p><p>The STOXX was last up 0.04%. Earlier in the day, Asian stocks also lost ground.</p><p><b>TIGHTENING TIME</b></p><p>It is not just in the United States that rate rises are expected. Most of the central banks meeting this week - from Switzerland to South Africa - are expected to hike, with markets split on whether the Bank of England will move by 50 or 75 basis points.</p><p>China's central bank went its own way though, and cut a repo rate by 10 basis points to support its ailing economy. Chinese blue chips still finished 0.1% lower.</p><p>The other exception is the Bank of Japan, also due to meet this week and which has shown no sign of abandoning its uber-easy yield curve policy despite the drastic slide in the yen.</p><p>The dollar rose 0.36% against the yen , having backed away from the recent 24-year peak of 144.99 in the face of increasingly strident intervention warnings from Japanese policymakers.</p><p>The dollar index rose 0.274%, with the euro down 0.18% to $0.9997.</p><p>"We expect the USD to keep trending higher this week to a new cyclical high above 110.8pts because of the deteriorating outlook for the world economy," said CBA analysts in a note.</p><p>The ascent of the dollar and yields has been a drag for gold, which was down 0.78% at $1,662 an ounce after hitting lows not seen since April 2020 last week.</p><p>Oil prices also tumbled, pressured by the stronger dollar, and subdued growth outlook. U.S. crude fell 0.55% to $84.64 per barrel and Brent was at $90.93, down 0.46% on the day.</p><p>Spot gold dropped 0.3% to $1.670,82 an ounce.</p><p>Bitcoin , which also moves in line with investors' risk appetite, hit a three-month low of $18,271 and was last down 0.45% to $19.332,00.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2268896593","content_text":"NEW YORK, Sept 19 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury benchmark 10-year yields hit their highest in more than a decade on Monday and shares rebounded despite the message that the Federal Reserve means business tackling inflation ahead of another likely hefty interest rate hike this week.The yield on 10-year Treasuries hit 3.518%, its highest level since April 2011. The higher rate helped strengthen the dollar and weaken gold prices as other central banks also are expected to hike rates this week.Markets started to get the message from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole banking symposium in August, but then investors remained in denial until it became clear inflation was stubbornly high, said George Goncalves, head of U.S. macro strategy at MUFG Securities Americas Inc in New York.The past three Fed meetings there have been relief rallies in bonds and equities as markets interpreted Powell as being dovish. But a rally this time is unlikely when policymakers conclude a two-day meeting on Wednesday, he said.\"People are wising up to the fact that the Fed means business,\" he said. \"The only way to contain this inflation is to get ahead of it, and they're still behind the curve. Peak hawkishness is getting closer, but we're not there yet.\"Markets are fully pricing in a hike of 75 basis points, with futures showing a 20% chance of a full percentage point increase on Wednesday, according to CME's FedWatch Tool.Markets also indicate a real chance that rates could hit 4.5% as the Fed is forced to tip the economy into a recession to subdue inflation.The two-year yield , a barometer of future inflation expectations, climbed to a fresh almost 15-year high of 3.970%. European government bond yields also rose.\"Asset performance during this Fed tightening cycle is very different from the norm for other rate hike episodes,\" said David Chao, a global market strategist at Invesco.\"Usually, the Fed tightens when the economy is thriving and most assets do well. However, most assets have suffered this time, perhaps due to the surge in inflation and abrupt policy change.\"Trading was thin in Britain as markets were closed in observance of the state funeral of Queen Elizabeth.On Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.31%, the S&P 500 gained 0.25% and the Nasdaq Composite added 0.21%.European shares also bounced back after the broad STOXX index slid as much as 1% to a more than 10-week low, dragged down by rate-sensitive tech stocks and French shares which were hurt by the collapse of a planned merger between two TV companies.The STOXX was last up 0.04%. Earlier in the day, Asian stocks also lost ground.TIGHTENING TIMEIt is not just in the United States that rate rises are expected. Most of the central banks meeting this week - from Switzerland to South Africa - are expected to hike, with markets split on whether the Bank of England will move by 50 or 75 basis points.China's central bank went its own way though, and cut a repo rate by 10 basis points to support its ailing economy. Chinese blue chips still finished 0.1% lower.The other exception is the Bank of Japan, also due to meet this week and which has shown no sign of abandoning its uber-easy yield curve policy despite the drastic slide in the yen.The dollar rose 0.36% against the yen , having backed away from the recent 24-year peak of 144.99 in the face of increasingly strident intervention warnings from Japanese policymakers.The dollar index rose 0.274%, with the euro down 0.18% to $0.9997.\"We expect the USD to keep trending higher this week to a new cyclical high above 110.8pts because of the deteriorating outlook for the world economy,\" said CBA analysts in a note.The ascent of the dollar and yields has been a drag for gold, which was down 0.78% at $1,662 an ounce after hitting lows not seen since April 2020 last week.Oil prices also tumbled, pressured by the stronger dollar, and subdued growth outlook. U.S. crude fell 0.55% to $84.64 per barrel and Brent was at $90.93, down 0.46% on the day.Spot gold dropped 0.3% to $1.670,82 an ounce.Bitcoin , which also moves in line with investors' risk appetite, hit a three-month low of $18,271 and was last down 0.45% to $19.332,00.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":348,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9910650341,"gmtCreate":1663628158883,"gmtModify":1676537302037,"author":{"id":"4121469500068312","authorId":"4121469500068312","name":"LLin","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4121469500068312","authorIdStr":"4121469500068312"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanks","listText":"Thanks","text":"Thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9910650341","repostId":"1158905038","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1158905038","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1663591588,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1158905038?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-19 20:46","market":"us","language":"en","title":"QQQ: Summer Glory To Fade Off In Fall Obscurity?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1158905038","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryIn this note, we will discuss recent price action in Invesco's QQQ ETF, along with the factor","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Summary</p><ul><li>In this note, we will discuss recent price action in Invesco's QQQ ETF, along with the factors driving this action.</li><li>Furthermore, I share a fresh outlook for the QQQ now that my call for a retest of June lows is looking nailed on to materialize.</li><li>I rate QQQ 'Neutral' at $290.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53444cd062deb64dcc2310c4eee26ce0\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"637\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Dilok Klaisataporn</span></p><p>Introduction: Where Do We Stand?</p><p>Invesco's QQQ (NASDAQ:QQQ) is an exchange-traded fund that tracks the tech-heavy Nasdaq-100 index. After a scintillating summer rally off of June lows, tech stocks and equity markets, in general, have resumed their downtrend. The lasttime I wrote on QQQ was back in early June, and here's what I said at the time:</p><blockquote>In the near term, I see QQQ running up to the $320-330 range, but over the medium term, we are likely to decline to $250-260. These targets are based on fundamental, quantitative, and technical analysis shared in today's note. With a near-term upside of 3-8% and a medium-term downside of ~20-25%, I'm not too fond of QQQ's risk/reward here. Therefore, I am neutral on QQQ at current levels.</blockquote><blockquote><i>Source:Is QQQ A Buy Or Sell During The Dip? It's Complicated</i></blockquote><p>After initially dipping to ~$270 by mid-June, the QQQ went on a smashing rally to reach the $335 level by mid-August. On 15th August 2022, I wrote the following in my newsletter:</p><blockquote>A series of higher highs and higher lows seem to reflect a strong bullish reversal; however, below-average trading volumes are unnerving. We are close to a resistance zone in the $335-345 range, and on the weekly chart, QQQ is testing the top end of the falling wedge pattern we have traded in for the last nine months. A rejection from this zone could quite easily trigger a retest of June lows.</blockquote><blockquote><i>Source:TQI Weekly - Issue #5: A New Bull Market Or Just Another Bear Market Rally</i></blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/159a6c2ed14077cf70319e8af4b8ccfb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>QQQ's chart as of mid-August (WeBull Desktop)</span></p><p>Now, I am not sharing this history to showcase some extraordinary ability to predict the stock market. Instead, I strongly believe that nobody knows where the market is going in the near term. All we can do is analyze the fundamental, quantitative, and technical data to get a better understanding of what could happen in the market. And then orient our investing operations to benefit from this probabilistic understanding of the market environment.</p><p>Sticky inflation, rising interest rates, hawkish monetary policy, and slowing economic activity do not portend strong equity market returns for the foreseeable future. On Tuesday, the CPI inflation print came in hotter-than-expected at 8.3%, surprising market participants betting on a drop off in inflation. However, on the ground, inflation is slowing down [e.g., prices at the gas station are down significantly in recent weeks, home prices are declining, used auto prices are way off their peak, and there are many other instances]. Now, the lagging rents data (~30-40% of CPI) is set to make the headline inflation numbers look bad for some time to come.</p><p>While renowned investors like Ray Dalio and Jeff Gundlach called out the rising probability of a recession during this week (and predicted another 20-25% decline in S&P500), the Fed seems to be focusing on countering inflation - moving full steam ahead with its quantitative tightening program. The expectations for the Fed's September meeting (on 21st and 22nd) are now pointing toward a 75-100 bps hike in the federal funds rate, and the bond market seems to be pricing in more hawkishness from Fed chair Jay Powell, as treasury rates continue to shift up rapidly.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6d4fb12a3da252cd53a6b5e96f4a380\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>YCharts</span></p><p>Legendary investor Warren Buffett's quote comes to mind:</p><blockquote>Interest rates are to asset prices what gravity is to the apple. When there are low interest rates, there is a very low gravitational pull on asset prices. The most important item over time in valuation is obviously interest rates.</blockquote><p>As interest rates have shot up in 2022, equities have been getting re-rated lower, and after a 28% YTD decline, the P/E ratio for Invesco's QQQ ETF (QQQ) [an ETF tracking Nasdaq-100 index] has come down to ~22-23x. Looking at historical data from the past ten years, the QQQ seems like a no-brainer buy at around 20x earnings.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a4da36ad357f2be93d1e18fbcb5edbc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"328\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>GuruFocus</span></p><p>However, persistently-high inflation, rising interest rates, and slowing economic activity (amidst waning consumer confidence) are significant threats to corporate earnings and the valuation multiples attached to these earnings. Honestly, earnings may be the next shoe to drop in this market cycle, and Q3 & Q4 could bring a lot more volatility to the equity markets.</p><p>A Look At Some Recent Market Action</p><p>Broad market indices [S&P500 (SPX), Nasdaq-100 (NDX), and Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA)] got off to a strong start in September; however, volatility returned to Wall Street last week. On Tuesday, stocks took a tumble (SPY down ~4%, QQQ down ~5%) as inflation data came in hotter-than-expected - raising expectations of a 75-100 bps rate hike by the Fed at its September meeting and even more hawkishness from the Fed. After a couple of benign days on Wednesday and Thursday, the sell-off resumed on Friday, with all major indices closing in the red. With the Fed tightening into a slowing economy, the fears of an economic recession are growing.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0576618c7710bd346a4a0f9d24e86a0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"439\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>YCharts</span></p><p>At my recently launched marketplace service, The Quantamental Investor, we saw our GARP & Buyback-Dividend portfolios experience a negative ROIC of -1.42% and -1.54% over the last two weeks, with a big chunk of weakness coming from a sell-off in large to mega-cap tech stocks. Interestingly, the performance of small to mid-cap (higher growth) companies was superior to that of their larger counterparts. As of the close on Friday, TQI's Moonshot Growth portfolio had an ROIC of +3.76%, which was better than iShares Russell 1000 Growth ETF's (IWF) return of -1.86%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8806662e5af57a7b54a1a3e62a249693\" tg-width=\"905\" tg-height=\"264\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>At TQI, our playbook for this bear market is -</p><blockquote>Build long positions slowly and manage risk proactively.</blockquote><p>If equity prices continue to fall over the coming weeks and months, then our dollar cost averaging plan will prove to be an effective risk management strategy. At TQI, we started our core portfolios with a 50% cash position, which we intend to deploy in a staggered way over the next ten months.</p><p>Where Is The Market Headed Next?</p><p>I don't know where the market will be a week, a month, or a quarter from now. However, considering valuations and technical charts, I think a retest of QQQ's June lows of ~$270 is very likely in the near term.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a46914a4f61975720b899626da4c4047\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"478\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>WeBull Desktop</span></p><p>If we fail to hold these levels, QQQ may be in for a decline to the $215-235 range. And I say this because the tech generals (largest components) in QQQ - Apple and Microsoft - have a potential downside of ~30-40% each. Read my latest articles on this subject to understand my reasoning for this call:</p><ul><li>Microsoft: Insider Selling, Frothy Valuation, Worsening Fundamentals, And More [September 15th, 2022]</li><li>Apple Vs. Microsoft Vs. Treasury Bonds: The Battle Of Safe Havens Round-2 [August 25th, 2022]</li><li>Apple Vs. Microsoft Vs. Treasury Bonds: The Battle Of Safe Havens [April 20th, 2022]</li></ul><p>We are getting closer to the Q3 (fall) earnings season, and that's when we could see a resolution on either side of the ~$270 level. With rising interest rates, the P/E trading multiples on QQQ are unlikely to expand in the foreseeable future (unless the earnings drop off, in which case the price will likely follow). Overall, I am not too fond of QQQ's medium-term risk-reward from current levels.</p><p>Final Thoughts</p><p>The Fed is hawkish as ever, and its balance sheet roll-off has just started. At some point, the Fed will break something in the economy, and then we will see yet another pivot. However, investors may have to undergo a lot more pain in equity markets before this happens. As the old adage goes -</p><blockquote><b>Don't Fight The Fed.</b></blockquote><p>And we are abiding by this rule in all of TQI's core portfolios by running our investing operations with ~50% in cash and deploying this cash slowly in a staggered fashion over a long period of time.</p><p>Over the near term, the QQQ is likely headed to June lows of ~$270, which is a downside of -7%. With the near and medium-term risk/reward being unattractive, I continue to rate QQQ 'Neutral' at ~$290.</p><p>While broad market [QQQ] is not enticing, there are loads of individual stocks offering asymmetric risk/reward opportunities. Being selective, contrarian, and right could yield spectacular returns for investors buying during periods of heightened volatility like the one we are experiencing today. I'll leave you with this thought - "Invest actively and manage risk proactively."</p><p><b>Key Takeaway:</b> I am neutral on QQQ at current levels.</p><p>Thank you for reading, and happy investing. Please feel free to share any questions, thoughts, or concerns in the comments section below.</p><p><i>This article was written by Ahan Vashi, </i><i>for reference only.</i></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>QQQ: Summer Glory To Fade Off In Fall Obscurity?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nQQQ: Summer Glory To Fade Off In Fall Obscurity?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-19 20:46 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4541722-qqq-summer-glory-fade-off-fall-obscurity><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryIn this note, we will discuss recent price action in Invesco's QQQ ETF, along with the factors driving this action.Furthermore, I share a fresh outlook for the QQQ now that my call for a retest...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4541722-qqq-summer-glory-fade-off-fall-obscurity\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NDX":"纳斯达克100指数",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","QQQ":"纳指100ETF"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4541722-qqq-summer-glory-fade-off-fall-obscurity","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1158905038","content_text":"SummaryIn this note, we will discuss recent price action in Invesco's QQQ ETF, along with the factors driving this action.Furthermore, I share a fresh outlook for the QQQ now that my call for a retest of June lows is looking nailed on to materialize.I rate QQQ 'Neutral' at $290.Dilok KlaisatapornIntroduction: Where Do We Stand?Invesco's QQQ (NASDAQ:QQQ) is an exchange-traded fund that tracks the tech-heavy Nasdaq-100 index. After a scintillating summer rally off of June lows, tech stocks and equity markets, in general, have resumed their downtrend. The lasttime I wrote on QQQ was back in early June, and here's what I said at the time:In the near term, I see QQQ running up to the $320-330 range, but over the medium term, we are likely to decline to $250-260. These targets are based on fundamental, quantitative, and technical analysis shared in today's note. With a near-term upside of 3-8% and a medium-term downside of ~20-25%, I'm not too fond of QQQ's risk/reward here. Therefore, I am neutral on QQQ at current levels.Source:Is QQQ A Buy Or Sell During The Dip? It's ComplicatedAfter initially dipping to ~$270 by mid-June, the QQQ went on a smashing rally to reach the $335 level by mid-August. On 15th August 2022, I wrote the following in my newsletter:A series of higher highs and higher lows seem to reflect a strong bullish reversal; however, below-average trading volumes are unnerving. We are close to a resistance zone in the $335-345 range, and on the weekly chart, QQQ is testing the top end of the falling wedge pattern we have traded in for the last nine months. A rejection from this zone could quite easily trigger a retest of June lows.Source:TQI Weekly - Issue #5: A New Bull Market Or Just Another Bear Market RallyQQQ's chart as of mid-August (WeBull Desktop)Now, I am not sharing this history to showcase some extraordinary ability to predict the stock market. Instead, I strongly believe that nobody knows where the market is going in the near term. All we can do is analyze the fundamental, quantitative, and technical data to get a better understanding of what could happen in the market. And then orient our investing operations to benefit from this probabilistic understanding of the market environment.Sticky inflation, rising interest rates, hawkish monetary policy, and slowing economic activity do not portend strong equity market returns for the foreseeable future. On Tuesday, the CPI inflation print came in hotter-than-expected at 8.3%, surprising market participants betting on a drop off in inflation. However, on the ground, inflation is slowing down [e.g., prices at the gas station are down significantly in recent weeks, home prices are declining, used auto prices are way off their peak, and there are many other instances]. Now, the lagging rents data (~30-40% of CPI) is set to make the headline inflation numbers look bad for some time to come.While renowned investors like Ray Dalio and Jeff Gundlach called out the rising probability of a recession during this week (and predicted another 20-25% decline in S&P500), the Fed seems to be focusing on countering inflation - moving full steam ahead with its quantitative tightening program. The expectations for the Fed's September meeting (on 21st and 22nd) are now pointing toward a 75-100 bps hike in the federal funds rate, and the bond market seems to be pricing in more hawkishness from Fed chair Jay Powell, as treasury rates continue to shift up rapidly.YChartsLegendary investor Warren Buffett's quote comes to mind:Interest rates are to asset prices what gravity is to the apple. When there are low interest rates, there is a very low gravitational pull on asset prices. The most important item over time in valuation is obviously interest rates.As interest rates have shot up in 2022, equities have been getting re-rated lower, and after a 28% YTD decline, the P/E ratio for Invesco's QQQ ETF (QQQ) [an ETF tracking Nasdaq-100 index] has come down to ~22-23x. Looking at historical data from the past ten years, the QQQ seems like a no-brainer buy at around 20x earnings.GuruFocusHowever, persistently-high inflation, rising interest rates, and slowing economic activity (amidst waning consumer confidence) are significant threats to corporate earnings and the valuation multiples attached to these earnings. Honestly, earnings may be the next shoe to drop in this market cycle, and Q3 & Q4 could bring a lot more volatility to the equity markets.A Look At Some Recent Market ActionBroad market indices [S&P500 (SPX), Nasdaq-100 (NDX), and Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA)] got off to a strong start in September; however, volatility returned to Wall Street last week. On Tuesday, stocks took a tumble (SPY down ~4%, QQQ down ~5%) as inflation data came in hotter-than-expected - raising expectations of a 75-100 bps rate hike by the Fed at its September meeting and even more hawkishness from the Fed. After a couple of benign days on Wednesday and Thursday, the sell-off resumed on Friday, with all major indices closing in the red. With the Fed tightening into a slowing economy, the fears of an economic recession are growing.YChartsAt my recently launched marketplace service, The Quantamental Investor, we saw our GARP & Buyback-Dividend portfolios experience a negative ROIC of -1.42% and -1.54% over the last two weeks, with a big chunk of weakness coming from a sell-off in large to mega-cap tech stocks. Interestingly, the performance of small to mid-cap (higher growth) companies was superior to that of their larger counterparts. As of the close on Friday, TQI's Moonshot Growth portfolio had an ROIC of +3.76%, which was better than iShares Russell 1000 Growth ETF's (IWF) return of -1.86%.At TQI, our playbook for this bear market is -Build long positions slowly and manage risk proactively.If equity prices continue to fall over the coming weeks and months, then our dollar cost averaging plan will prove to be an effective risk management strategy. At TQI, we started our core portfolios with a 50% cash position, which we intend to deploy in a staggered way over the next ten months.Where Is The Market Headed Next?I don't know where the market will be a week, a month, or a quarter from now. However, considering valuations and technical charts, I think a retest of QQQ's June lows of ~$270 is very likely in the near term.WeBull DesktopIf we fail to hold these levels, QQQ may be in for a decline to the $215-235 range. And I say this because the tech generals (largest components) in QQQ - Apple and Microsoft - have a potential downside of ~30-40% each. Read my latest articles on this subject to understand my reasoning for this call:Microsoft: Insider Selling, Frothy Valuation, Worsening Fundamentals, And More [September 15th, 2022]Apple Vs. Microsoft Vs. Treasury Bonds: The Battle Of Safe Havens Round-2 [August 25th, 2022]Apple Vs. Microsoft Vs. Treasury Bonds: The Battle Of Safe Havens [April 20th, 2022]We are getting closer to the Q3 (fall) earnings season, and that's when we could see a resolution on either side of the ~$270 level. With rising interest rates, the P/E trading multiples on QQQ are unlikely to expand in the foreseeable future (unless the earnings drop off, in which case the price will likely follow). Overall, I am not too fond of QQQ's medium-term risk-reward from current levels.Final ThoughtsThe Fed is hawkish as ever, and its balance sheet roll-off has just started. At some point, the Fed will break something in the economy, and then we will see yet another pivot. However, investors may have to undergo a lot more pain in equity markets before this happens. As the old adage goes -Don't Fight The Fed.And we are abiding by this rule in all of TQI's core portfolios by running our investing operations with ~50% in cash and deploying this cash slowly in a staggered fashion over a long period of time.Over the near term, the QQQ is likely headed to June lows of ~$270, which is a downside of -7%. With the near and medium-term risk/reward being unattractive, I continue to rate QQQ 'Neutral' at ~$290.While broad market [QQQ] is not enticing, there are loads of individual stocks offering asymmetric risk/reward opportunities. Being selective, contrarian, and right could yield spectacular returns for investors buying during periods of heightened volatility like the one we are experiencing today. I'll leave you with this thought - \"Invest actively and manage risk proactively.\"Key Takeaway: I am neutral on QQQ at current levels.Thank you for reading, and happy investing. Please feel free to share any questions, thoughts, or concerns in the comments section below.This article was written by Ahan Vashi, for reference only.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":197,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
