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2024-09-05

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“石油危机”卷土重来？末日博士：就看中东火药桶炸不炸了

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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n“石油危机”卷土重来？末日博士：就看中东火药桶炸不炸了\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-09-05 14:00 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://hk.finance.yahoo.com/news/1970%E5%B9%B4%E4%BB%A3%E7%9F%B3%E6%B2%B9%E5%8D%B1%E6%A9%9F%E6%8D%B2%E5%9C%9F%E9%87%8D%E4%BE%86-%E6%9C%AB%E6%97%A5%E5%8D%9A%E5%A3%AB-%E5%B0%B1%E7%9C%8B%E4%B8%AD%E6%9D%B1%E7%81%AB%E8%97%A5%E6%A1%B6%E7%82%B8%E4%B8%8D%E7%82%B8%E4%BA%86-060005226.html><strong>鉅亨網</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>曾准确预测 2008 年金融海啸、享有“末日博士”称号的经济学家鲁比尼（Nouriel Roubini）警告，如果中东冲突升级，全球经济可能再次面临上世纪 70 年代那样的石油危机。据《Business Insider》周四（9月5日）引述《经济时报》报导，鲁比尼再次对世界经济前景感到悲观。他说，中东的风险正在上升，以色列和巴勒斯坦的冲突已经蔓延开来，并可能促使伊朗动手。他指出，如果以色列和伊朗的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://hk.finance.yahoo.com/news/1970%E5%B9%B4%E4%BB%A3%E7%9F%B3%E6%B2%B9%E5%8D%B1%E6%A9%9F%E6%8D%B2%E5%9C%9F%E9%87%8D%E4%BE%86-%E6%9C%AB%E6%97%A5%E5%8D%9A%E5%A3%AB-%E5%B0%B1%E7%9C%8B%E4%B8%AD%E6%9D%B1%E7%81%AB%E8%97%A5%E6%A1%B6%E7%82%B8%E4%B8%8D%E7%82%B8%E4%BA%86-060005226.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa762173084c70e47fd9c3bfa3b42f1a","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://hk.finance.yahoo.com/news/1970%E5%B9%B4%E4%BB%A3%E7%9F%B3%E6%B2%B9%E5%8D%B1%E6%A9%9F%E6%8D%B2%E5%9C%9F%E9%87%8D%E4%BE%86-%E6%9C%AB%E6%97%A5%E5%8D%9A%E5%A3%AB-%E5%B0%B1%E7%9C%8B%E4%B8%AD%E6%9D%B1%E7%81%AB%E8%97%A5%E6%A1%B6%E7%82%B8%E4%B8%8D%E7%82%B8%E4%BA%86-060005226.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2465751568","content_text":"曾准确预测 2008 年金融海啸、享有“末日博士”称号的经济学家鲁比尼（Nouriel Roubini）警告，如果中东冲突升级，全球经济可能再次面临上世纪 70 年代那样的石油危机。据《Business Insider》周四（9月5日）引述《经济时报》报导，鲁比尼再次对世界经济前景感到悲观。他说，中东的风险正在上升，以色列和巴勒斯坦的冲突已经蔓延开来，并可能促使伊朗动手。他指出，如果以色列和伊朗的冲突升级为全面战争，这可能会影响伊朗的石油出口，并引发原油价格大幅上涨。这种情况，类似上世纪 70 年代全球经济遭遇的石油冲击。“如果这场战争升级为以色列和伊朗的全面战争，波斯湾的石油生产和出口将被封锁数周，甚至数月，导致油价受到冲击，就像 1973 年‘赎罪日战争’或 1979 年‘伊朗革命’那样。”不过，他也坦言，到目前为止，中东冲突对油价的影响尚属温和。事实上，鲁比尼经常对全球经济和市场发出可怕警告，他在过去一年里特别担心油价冲击。他在 2022 年表示，这种冲击有可能引发经济衰退或上世纪 70 年代那样的停滞性通膨危机，即经济成长停滞，而通膨居高不下。众所周知，中东局势近期因两名关键人物之死又再度升级了，人们愈发担心这个火药桶就要炸了。7 月末，巴勒斯坦极端组织哈玛斯政治局领导人哈尼雅在伊朗首都德黑兰被暗杀。就在一天前，以色列在贝鲁特发动袭击，击毙黎巴嫩真主党高阶军事指挥官舒克尔。这两个地区武装组织背后都有伊朗撑腰。事实上，不止鲁比尼，其他行业专家也警告，伊朗被卷入以色列和哈玛斯的冲突，可能会引发原油市场重大波动。Commonwealth Bank of Australia 的分析报告显示，以色列攻击伊朗的石油基础设施，最多可能会危及全球 4% 原油供应。该公司策略师预估，在这种情况下，布兰特原油交易价格可能高达每桶 85 美元，较周三价格高 16% 左右。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":291,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":346064637087904,"gmtCreate":1725530780610,"gmtModify":1725531055584,"author":{"id":"4122727105580662","authorId":"4122727105580662","name":"Danielchugz","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4122727105580662","idStr":"4122727105580662"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"😂","listText":"😂","text":"😂","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/346064637087904","repostId":"2465751568","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":291,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}