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2022-12-12

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Investors Are Losing Faith in Cathie Wood’s ARK Innovation

2022-12-09

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2022-12-03

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2022-12-03

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2022-12-03

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11 Hours With Sam Bankman-Fried: Inside the Bahamian Penthouse After FTX’s Fall

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2022-11-29

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2022-11-27

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2022-11-27

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2022-11-24

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Some finally appear to belosing their conviction.</p><p>Shares of the fund, a pandemic-era favorite largely made up of unprofitable,growth-oriented technology companies, are down 63% this year. While the S&amp;P 500 index has rallied 10% since mid-October to cut its 2022 losses to 17%, Ms. Wood’s flagship fund is hovering near a five-year low.</p><p>Investors heeding a “buy the dip” rallying cry poured money into the fund in each of the first five months of the year—a net $1.89 billion—as markets tumbled. Since then, their enthusiasm has waned. They pulled money in three of the next six months, or a net $76.5 million, according to FactSet. On Nov. 30 alone, they yanked $146 million, which was among the largest single-day outflows of the year.</p><p>Investors have bailed out ofgrowth stocksand other speculative assets en masse this year. In a rising yield environment in which they suddenly have options for earning returns with little risk, many are losing their appetite for money-losing companies promising the chance of returns in the future.</p><p>The three largest holdings in the fund—which is known by its ticker symbol ARKK—areZoom Video CommunicationsInc.,ZM-0.28%decrease; red down pointing triangleTeslaInc. andExact SciencesCorp., companies Ms. Wood has said have the potential to change the world.</p><p>Shares of Zoomand Tesla have lost about half their value this year, while Exact Sciences, an unprofitable provider of cancer screening and diagnostics tools, is down 43%. Ms. Wood has also been a proponent of bitcoin, whichhas fallen about 75%from its November 2021 peak.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c983e003a0fbcee27d261ad5e0c07a5\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Cathie Wood predicts cryptocurrency growth and has been buying shares of Coinbase.PHOTO:SHANNON STAPLETON/REUTERS</span></p><p>Similar bets netted huge rewards in the low-rate environment of 2020 and 2021. ARKK shares more than doubled in 2020 beforeworries about inflation—and the prospect of higher rates—stalled their advance.</p><p>“The bet was that free money would last indefinitely, and there doesn’t seem to have been a risk-management game plan,” saidJon Burckett-St. Laurent, senior portfolio manager at Exencial Wealth Advisors.</p><p>For her part, Ms. Wood continues to shrug off the critics and stand by her investments. She tweeted recently that companies in her fund are “sacrificing short-term profitability for exponential and highly profitable long term growth.” During a Bloomberg Television interview in November, she predicted theprice of bitcoinwill hit $1 million by 2030, a roughly 6,000% increase from current levels.</p><p>Ms. Wood has called for Zoom, ARKK’s largest holding, to approach $1,500 a share in 2026, based in part on expectations of a worker backlash againstreturning to offices. Her bear case is for shares to trade at $700. They closed Friday at $72.16.</p><p>Through a spokeswoman, Ms. Wood declined to comment.</p><p>While many on Wall Street are cutting risk and bracing for a recession, Ms. Wood has been adding to riskier positions in recent weeks, buying more shares of cryptocurrency exchangeCoinbase GlobalInc. and a bitcoin futures ETF.</p><p>ARKK added 931,000 shares of Coinbase worth roughly $43 million in November, according to FactSet. ARKK is the second-largest holder of Coinbase shares, which are down 84% year-to-date. Another of Ms. Wood’s funds, theARK Next Generation Internet ETFARKW-0.70%decrease; red down pointing triangle, increased its exposure to bitcoin with the purchase of 608,000 shares of theGrayscale Bitcoin Trust, worth $6 million. GBTC trust shares are down 77% this year.</p><p>Some investors say Ms. Wood’s fund still doesn’t look cheap, even after its sharp share-price declines. Since a majority of the companies it holds are unprofitable, traditional valuation measures such as price-to-earnings ratios are irrelevant.</p><p>“I think with the flows into Cathie’s fund, there’s a knee-jerk reaction from some investors when something’s down that much,” saidBill Callahan, investment strategist at Schroders. “But that’s not always the right play. All of these stocks work in a relatively low nominal growth, low rate environment. It just doesn’t seem like that’s where we’re going to be.”</p><p>Data from popular retail brokerage Webull Financial LLC shows that customers have added cash on anet basis to ARKKthis year, but the number of accounts holding the fund is shrinking.</p><p>Since Jan. 1, the number of accounts holding the fund is down 8%, Webull Chief ExecutiveAnthony Deniersaid. By mid-November, the total had fallen to the lowest level of the year.</p><p>“The big change started happening in July,” Mr. Denier said. “It’s been steadily declining.”</p><p>ARKK could see another hit come in the coming weeks, Mr. Denier said, if savvy individual investors target their holdings for what is known as tax-loss harvesting—selling losing positions before year-end to realize losses and write them off as a tax loss.</p><p>Ms. Wood continues to try to sell investors on the future, but with returns plunging, more of them have questions.</p><p>“With Cathie Wood’s model, there’s no question that if one of her companies cures cancer, that stock will go through the roof,” saidBrian Mulberry, client portfolio manager at Zacks Investment Management. “It’s just simply a question of, how do you get from here to the other side of the rainbow?”</p></body></html>","source":"wsj_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Investors Are Losing Faith in Cathie Wood’s ARK Innovation</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nInvestors Are Losing Faith in Cathie Wood’s ARK Innovation\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-12 21:23 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.wsj.com/articles/investors-are-losing-faith-in-cathie-woods-ark-innovation-11670846139?mod=rss_markets_main><strong>The Wall Street Journal</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Investors who bought the dip inCathie Wood‘sARK InnovationARKK-1.45%decrease; red down pointing triangleexchange-traded fund have been punished this year. Some finally appear to belosing their ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/investors-are-losing-faith-in-cathie-woods-ark-innovation-11670846139?mod=rss_markets_main\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ARKF":"ARK Fintech Innovation ETF","ARKG":"ARK Genomic Revolution ETF","ARKK":"ARK Innovation ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.wsj.com/articles/investors-are-losing-faith-in-cathie-woods-ark-innovation-11670846139?mod=rss_markets_main","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1195161646","content_text":"Investors who bought the dip inCathie Wood‘sARK InnovationARKK-1.45%decrease; red down pointing triangleexchange-traded fund have been punished this year. Some finally appear to belosing their conviction.Shares of the fund, a pandemic-era favorite largely made up of unprofitable,growth-oriented technology companies, are down 63% this year. While the S&P 500 index has rallied 10% since mid-October to cut its 2022 losses to 17%, Ms. Wood’s flagship fund is hovering near a five-year low.Investors heeding a “buy the dip” rallying cry poured money into the fund in each of the first five months of the year—a net $1.89 billion—as markets tumbled. Since then, their enthusiasm has waned. They pulled money in three of the next six months, or a net $76.5 million, according to FactSet. On Nov. 30 alone, they yanked $146 million, which was among the largest single-day outflows of the year.Investors have bailed out ofgrowth stocksand other speculative assets en masse this year. In a rising yield environment in which they suddenly have options for earning returns with little risk, many are losing their appetite for money-losing companies promising the chance of returns in the future.The three largest holdings in the fund—which is known by its ticker symbol ARKK—areZoom Video CommunicationsInc.,ZM-0.28%decrease; red down pointing triangleTeslaInc. andExact SciencesCorp., companies Ms. Wood has said have the potential to change the world.Shares of Zoomand Tesla have lost about half their value this year, while Exact Sciences, an unprofitable provider of cancer screening and diagnostics tools, is down 43%. Ms. Wood has also been a proponent of bitcoin, whichhas fallen about 75%from its November 2021 peak.Cathie Wood predicts cryptocurrency growth and has been buying shares of Coinbase.PHOTO:SHANNON STAPLETON/REUTERSSimilar bets netted huge rewards in the low-rate environment of 2020 and 2021. ARKK shares more than doubled in 2020 beforeworries about inflation—and the prospect of higher rates—stalled their advance.“The bet was that free money would last indefinitely, and there doesn’t seem to have been a risk-management game plan,” saidJon Burckett-St. Laurent, senior portfolio manager at Exencial Wealth Advisors.For her part, Ms. Wood continues to shrug off the critics and stand by her investments. She tweeted recently that companies in her fund are “sacrificing short-term profitability for exponential and highly profitable long term growth.” During a Bloomberg Television interview in November, she predicted theprice of bitcoinwill hit $1 million by 2030, a roughly 6,000% increase from current levels.Ms. Wood has called for Zoom, ARKK’s largest holding, to approach $1,500 a share in 2026, based in part on expectations of a worker backlash againstreturning to offices. Her bear case is for shares to trade at $700. They closed Friday at $72.16.Through a spokeswoman, Ms. Wood declined to comment.While many on Wall Street are cutting risk and bracing for a recession, Ms. Wood has been adding to riskier positions in recent weeks, buying more shares of cryptocurrency exchangeCoinbase GlobalInc. and a bitcoin futures ETF.ARKK added 931,000 shares of Coinbase worth roughly $43 million in November, according to FactSet. ARKK is the second-largest holder of Coinbase shares, which are down 84% year-to-date. Another of Ms. Wood’s funds, theARK Next Generation Internet ETFARKW-0.70%decrease; red down pointing triangle, increased its exposure to bitcoin with the purchase of 608,000 shares of theGrayscale Bitcoin Trust, worth $6 million. GBTC trust shares are down 77% this year.Some investors say Ms. Wood’s fund still doesn’t look cheap, even after its sharp share-price declines. Since a majority of the companies it holds are unprofitable, traditional valuation measures such as price-to-earnings ratios are irrelevant.“I think with the flows into Cathie’s fund, there’s a knee-jerk reaction from some investors when something’s down that much,” saidBill Callahan, investment strategist at Schroders. “But that’s not always the right play. All of these stocks work in a relatively low nominal growth, low rate environment. It just doesn’t seem like that’s where we’re going to be.”Data from popular retail brokerage Webull Financial LLC shows that customers have added cash on anet basis to ARKKthis year, but the number of accounts holding the fund is shrinking.Since Jan. 1, the number of accounts holding the fund is down 8%, Webull Chief ExecutiveAnthony Deniersaid. By mid-November, the total had fallen to the lowest level of the year.“The big change started happening in July,” Mr. Denier said. “It’s been steadily declining.”ARKK could see another hit come in the coming weeks, Mr. Denier said, if savvy individual investors target their holdings for what is known as tax-loss harvesting—selling losing positions before year-end to realize losses and write them off as a tax loss.Ms. Wood continues to try to sell investors on the future, but with returns plunging, more of them have questions.“With Cathie Wood’s model, there’s no question that if one of her companies cures cancer, that stock will go through the roof,” saidBrian Mulberry, client portfolio manager at Zacks Investment Management. “It’s just simply a question of, how do you get from here to the other side of the rainbow?”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":168,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9920711386,"gmtCreate":1670548333746,"gmtModify":1676538390656,"author":{"id":"4129173637846012","authorId":"4129173637846012","name":"Csd","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c94468b485a22bdb5cf61a9d32169cc0","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":11,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9920711386","repostId":"2290422271","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":468,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9964336529,"gmtCreate":1670075319262,"gmtModify":1676538298800,"author":{"id":"4129173637846012","authorId":"4129173637846012","name":"Csd","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c94468b485a22bdb5cf61a9d32169cc0","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9964336529","repostId":"2288596195","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":233,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9964336695,"gmtCreate":1670075288217,"gmtModify":1676538298792,"author":{"id":"4129173637846012","authorId":"4129173637846012","name":"Csd","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c94468b485a22bdb5cf61a9d32169cc0","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"&nbsp;Like","listText":"&nbsp;Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9964336695","repostId":"1121458158","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":350,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9964336398,"gmtCreate":1670075245714,"gmtModify":1676538298784,"author":{"id":"4129173637846012","authorId":"4129173637846012","name":"Csd","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c94468b485a22bdb5cf61a9d32169cc0","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9964336398","repostId":"1152464265","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1152464265","pubTimestamp":1670022054,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1152464265?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-12-03 07:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"11 Hours With Sam Bankman-Fried: Inside the Bahamian Penthouse After FTX’s Fall","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1152464265","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"Sam Bankman-Fried’s $30 million Bahamas penthouse looks like a dorm after the students have left for winter break. The dishwasher is full. Towels are piled in the laundry room. Bat streamers from a Ha","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb8b5a354d9d687bd95cdff74dddc508\" tg-width=\"1214\" tg-height=\"811\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Sam Bankman-Fried’s $30 million Bahamas penthouse looks like a dorm after the students have left for winter break. The dishwasher is full. Towels are piled in the laundry room. Bat streamers from a Halloween party are still hanging from a doorway. Two boxes of Legos sit on the floor of one bedroom. And then there are the shoes—dozens of sneakers and heels piled in the foyer, left behind by employees who fled the island of New Providence last month when his cryptocurrency exchangeFTX imploded.</p><p>“It’s been an interesting few weeks,” Bankman-Fried says in a chipper tone as he greets me. It’s a muggy Saturday afternoon, eight days after FTX filed for bankruptcy. He’s shoeless, in white gym socks, a red T-shirt and wrinkled khaki shorts. His standard uniform.</p><p>This isn’t part of the typical tour Bankman-Fried gave to the many reporters who came to tell the tale of the boy-genius-crypto-billionaire who slept on a beanbag chair next to his desk and only got rich so he could give it all away, and it’s easy to see why. The apartment is at the top of one of the luxury condo buildings that border a marina in a gated community called Albany. Outside, deckhands buff the stanchions of a 200-foot yacht owned by a fracking billionaire. A bronze replica of Wall Street’s<i>Charging Bull</i>statue stands on the lawn, which is as manicured as the residents. I feel like I’ve crash-landed on an alien planet populated solely by the very rich and the people who work for them.</p><p>Bankman-Fried leads me down a marble-floored hallway to a small bedroom, where he perches on a plush brown couch. Always known for being jittery, he taps his foot so hard it rattles a coffee table, smacks gum and rubs his index finger with his thumb like he’s twirling an invisible fidget spinner. But he seems almost cheerful as he explains why he’s invited me into his 12,000-square-foot bolthole, against the advice of his lawyers, even as investigators from theUS Department of Justice probewhether he used customers’ funds to prop up his hedge fund, a crime that could send him to prison for years. (Spoiler alert: It sure looks like he did.)</p><p>“What I’m focusing on is what I can do, right now, to try and make things as right as possible,” Bankman-Fried says. “I can’t do that if I’m just focused on covering my ass.”</p><p>But he seems to be doing just that, with me here and all along the apology tour he’ll later embark on, which will include a video appearance at a<i>New York Times</i>conference and an interview on<i>Good Morning America</i>. He’s been trying to blame his firm’s failure on a hazy combination of comically poor bookkeeping, wildly misjudged risks and complete ignorance of what his hedge fund was doing. In other words, an alumnus of both MIT and the elite Wall Street trading firmJane Streetis arguing that he was just dumb with the numbers—not pulling a conscious fraud. Talking in detail to journalists about what’s certain to be the subject of extensive litigation seems like an unusual strategy, but it makes sense: The press helped him create his only-honest-man-in-crypto image, so why not use them to talk his way out of trouble?</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79b2ba9ef6da8454146f200cdc460f6e\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"666\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Bankman-Fried after an interview on<i>Bloomberg Wealth With David Rubenstein</i>on Aug. 17, 2022.Photographer: Jeenah Moon/Bloomberg</p><p>He doesn’t say so, but one reason he might be willing to speak with me is that I’m one of the reporters who helped build him up. After spending two days at FTX’s offices in February, I flew past the brightred flagsat his company—its lack of corporate governance, the ties to his Alameda Research hedge fund, its profligate spending on marketing, the fact that it operated largely outside US jurisdiction. Iwrote a storyfocused on whether Bankman-Fried would follow through on his plans to donate huge sums to charity and his connections to an unusual philanthropic movement calledeffective altruism.</p><p>It wasn’t the most embarrassingly puffy of the many puff pieces that came out about him. (“After my interview with SBF, I was convinced: I was talking to a future trillionaire,” one writer said in an article commissioned by a venture capital firm.) But my tone wasn’t entirely dissimilar. “Bankman-Fried is a thought experiment from a college philosophy seminar come to life,” I wrote. “Should someone who wants to save the world first amass as much money and power as possible, or will the pursuit corrupt him along the way?” Now it seems pretty clear that a better question would’ve been whether the business was ascam from the start.</p><p>I tell Bankman-Fried I want to talk about the decisions that led to FTX’s collapse, and why he took them. Earlier in the week, inlate-night DM exchangeswith a<i>Vox</i>reporter and on a phone call with a YouTuber, he made comments that many interpreted as an admission that everything he said was a lie. (“So the ethics stuff, mostly a front?” the<i>Vox</i>reporter asked. “Yeah,” Bankman-Fried replied.) He’d spoken so cynically about his motivations that to many it seemed like a comic book character was pulling off his mask to reveal the villain who’d been hiding there all along.</p><p>I set out on this visit with a different working theory. Maybe I was feeling the tug of my past reporting, but I still didn’t think the talk about charity was all made up. Since he was a teenager, Bankman-Fried has described himself as utilitarian—following the philosophy that the correct action is the one likely to result in the greatest good for the greatest number of people. He said his endgame was making and donating enough money to prevent pandemics and stop runaway artificial intelligence from destroying humanity. Faced with a crisis, and believing he was the hero of his own sci-fi movie, he might’ve thought it was right to make a crazy, even illegal, gamble to save his company.</p><p>To be clear, if that’s what happened, it’s the logic of a megalomaniac, not a martyr. The money wasn’t his to gamble with, and “the ends justify the means” is a cliché of bad ethics. But if it’s what he believed, he might still think he’d made the right decision, even if it didn’t work out. It seemed to me that’s what he meant when he messaged<i>Vox</i>, “The worst quadrant is sketchy + lose. The best is win + ???” I want to probe that, in part because it might get him to talk more candidly about what had happened to his customers’ money.</p><p>I decide to approach the topic gingerly, on terms I think he’ll relate to, as it seems he’s in less of a crime-confess-y mood. He’s said he likes to evaluate decisions in terms of expected value—the odds of success times the likely payoff—so I begin by asking: “Should I judge you by your impact, or by the expected value of your decision?”</p><p>“When all is said and done, what matters is your actual realized impact. Like, that’s what actually matters to the world,” he says. “But, obviously, there’s luck.”</p><p>That’s the in I’m looking for. For the next 11 hours—with breaks for fundraising calls and a very awkward dinner—I try to get him to tell me exactly what he meant. He denies that he’s committed fraud or lied to anyone and blames FTX’s failure on his sloppiness and inattention. But at points it seems like he’s saying he got<i>un</i>lucky, or miscalculated the odds.</p><p>Bankman-Fried tells me he’s still got a chance to raise $8 billion to save his company. He seems delusional, or committed to pretending this is still an error he can fix, and either way, the few supporters remaining at his penthouse seem unlikely to set him straight. The grim scene reminds me a bit of the end of<i>Scarface</i>, with Tony Montana holed up in his mansion, semi-incoherent, his unknown enemies sneaking closer. But instead of mountains of cocaine, Bankman-Fried is clinging to spreadsheet tabs filled with wildly optimistic cryptocurrency valuations.</p><p>Think of FTX like an offshore casino. Customers sent in money, then gambled on the price of hundreds ofcryptocurrencies—not just Bitcoin or Ether, but more obscure coins. In crypto slang, the latter are called shitcoins, because almost no one knows what they’re for. But in the past few years, otherwise respectable people, from retired dentists to heads of state, convinced themselves that these coins werethe future of finance. Or at least that enough other people might think so to make the price go up. Bankman-Fried’s casino was growing so fast that earlier this year some of Silicon Valley’s top venture capitalists invested in it at a $32 billion valuation.</p><p>The problem surfaced last month. After a rival crypto-casino kingpin raised concerns about FTX on Twitter, customers rushed to cash in their chips. But when Bankman-Fried’s casino opened the vault, their money wasn’t there. According to multiple news reports citing people familiar with the matter, it had been secretly lent to Bankman-Fried’s hedge fund, which had lost it in some mix of bad bets, insane spending and perhaps something even sketchier. John Ray III, the lawyer who’s now chief executive officer of the bankrupt exchange, has alleged in court that FTX covered up the loans using secret software.</p><p>Bankman-Fried denies this again to me. Returning to the framework of expected value, I ask him if the decisions he made were correct.</p><p>“I think that I’ve made a lot of plus-EV decisions and a few very large boneheaded decisions,” he says. “Certainly in retrospect, those very large decisions were very bad, and may end up overwhelming everything else.”</p><p>The chain of events, in his telling, started about four years ago. Bankman-Fried was in Hong Kong, where he’d moved from Berkeley, California, with a small group of friends from the effective-altruism community. Together they ran a successful startup crypto hedge fund,Alameda Research. (The name itself was an early example of his casual attitude toward rules—it was chosen to avoid scrutiny from banks, which frequently closed its accounts. “If we named our company like, Shitcoin Daytraders Inc., they’d probably just reject us,” Bankman-Fried told a podcaster in 2021. “But, I mean, no one doesn’t like research.”)</p><p>The fund had made millions of dollars exploiting inefficiencies across cryptocurrency exchanges. (Ex-employees, even those otherwise critical of Bankman-Fried, have said this is true, though some have said Alameda then lost some of that money because of bad trades and mismanagement.) Bankman-Fried and his friends began considering starting their own exchange—what would become FTX.</p><p>The way Bankman-Fried later described this decision reveals his attitude toward risk. He estimated there was an 80% chance the exchange would fail to attract enough customers. But he’s said one should always take a bet, even a long-shot one, if the expected value is positive, calling this stance “risk neutral.” But it actually meant he would take risks that to a normal person sound insane. “As an individual, to make a bet where it’s like, ‘I’m going to gamble my $10 billion and either get $20 billion or $0, with equal probability,’ would be madness,” Rob Wiblin, host of an effective-altruism podcast, said to Bankman-Fried in April. “But from an altruistic point of view, it’s not so crazy.”</p><p>“Completely agree,” Bankman-Fried replied. He told another interviewer that he’d make a bet described as a chance of “51% you double the earth out somewhere else, 49% it all disappears.”</p><p>Bankman-Fried and his friends jump-started FTX by having Alameda provide liquidity. It was a huge conflict of interest. Imagine if the top executives at an online poker site also entered its high-stakes tournaments—the temptation to cheat by peeking at other players’ cards would be huge. But Bankman-Fried assured customers that Alameda would play by the same rules as everyone else, and enough people came to trade that FTX took off. “Having Alameda provide liquidity on FTX early on was the right decision, because I think that helped make FTX a great product for users, even though it obviously ended up backfiring,” Bankman-Fried tells me.</p><p>Part of FTX’s appeal was that it was mostly a derivatives exchange, which allowed customers to trade “on margin,” meaning with borrowed money. That’s a key to his defense. Bankman-Fried argues no one should be surprised that big traders on FTX, including Alameda, were borrowing from the exchange, and that his fund’s position just somehow got out of hand. “Everyone was borrowing and lending,” he says. “That’s been its calling card.” But FTX’s normal margin system, crypto traders tell me, would never have permitted anyone to accumulate a debt that looked like Alameda’s. When I ask if Alameda had to follow the same margin rules as other traders, he admits the fund did not. “There was more leeway,” he says.</p><p>That wouldn’t have been so important had Alameda stuck to its original trading strategy of relatively low-risk arbitrage trades. But in 2020 and 2021, as Bankman-Fried became the face of FTX, amajor political donorand a favorite of Silicon Valley, Alameda faced more competition in that market-making business. It shifted its strategy to, essentially, gambling on shitcoins.</p><p>As Caroline Ellison, then Alameda’s co-CEO, explained in aMarch 2021 post on Twitter: “The way to really make money is figure out when the market is going to go up and get balls long before that,” she wrote, adding that she’d learned the strategy from the classic market-manipulation memoir,<i>Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.</i>Her co-CEO said in another tweet that a profitable strategy was buying Dogecoin becauseElon Musktweeted about it.</p><p>The reason they were bragging about what sounded like a high schooler’s tactics was that it was working better than anyone knew. When we spoke in February 2022, Bankman-Fried told me that Alameda had made $1 billion the previous year. He now says that was Alameda’s arbitrage profits. On top of that, its shitcoins gained tens of billions of dollars of value, at least on paper. “If you mark everything to market, I do believe at one point my net worth got to $100 billion,” Bankman-Fried says.</p><p>Any trader would know this wasn’t nearly as good as it sounded. The large pile of tokens couldn’t be turned into cash without crashing the market. Much of it was even made of tokens that Bankman-Fried and his friends had spun up themselves, such as FTT, Serum or Maps—the official currency of a nonsensical crypto-meets-mapping app—or were closely affiliated with, like Solana. While Bankman-Fried acknowledges the pile was worth something less than $100 billion—maybe he’d mark it down a third, he says—he maintains that he could have extracted quite a lot of real money from his holdings.</p><p>But he didn’t. Instead, Alameda borrowed billions of dollars from other crypto lenders—not FTX—and sunk them into more crypto bets. Publicly, Bankman-Fried presented himself as an ethical operator andcalled for regulationto rein in crypto’s worst excesses. But through his hedge fund, he’d actually become the market’s most degenerate gambler. I ask him why, if he really thought he could sell the tokens, he didn’t. “Why not, like, take some risk off?”</p><p>“OK. In retrospect, absolutely. That would’ve been the right, like, unambiguously the right thing to do,” he says. “But also it was just, like, hilariously well-capitalized.”</p><p>Near the peak of the great shitcoin boom, in April 2022, FTX hosted a lavish conference at a resort and casino in Nassau. It was Bankman-Fried’s coming out party. He got to share the stage with quarterback Tom Brady. Also there: former Prime Minister Tony Blair and ex-President Bill Clinton, who extended a fatherly hand when the young crypto executive seemed nervous. The author Michael Lewis, who’s working on a book about Bankman-Fried, praised him in a fawning interview onstage. “You’re breaking land speed records. And I don’t think people are really noticing what’s happened, just how dramatic the revolution has become,” Lewis said, asking when crypto would take over Wall Street.</p><p>The next month, thecrypto crash began. It started when a popular set of coins called Terra and Luna collapsed, wiping out $60 billion. Terra and Luna were almost openly a Ponzi scheme, but some of the biggest crypto funds had invested in them with borrowed money and went bankrupt. This made the lenders who’d lent billions of dollars to Alameda nervous. They asked Alameda to repay the loans, with real money. It needed billions of dollars, fast, or it would go bust.</p><p>There are two different versions of what happened next. Two people with knowledge of the matter told me that Ellison, by then the sole head of Alameda, had told her side of the story to her staff amid the crisis. Ellison said that she, Bankman-Fried and his two top lieutenants—Gary Wang and Nishad Singh—had discussed the shortfall. Instead of admitting Alameda’s failure, they decided to use FTX customer funds to cover it, according to the people. If that’s true, all four executives would’ve knowingly committed fraud. (Ellison, Wang and Singh didn’t respond to messages seeking comment.)</p><p>When I put this to Bankman-Fried, he screws up his eyes, furrows his eyebrows, puts his hands in his hair and thinks for a few seconds.</p><p>“So, it’s not how I remember what happened,” Bankman-Fried says. But he surprises me by acknowledging that there had been a meeting, post-Luna crash, where they debated what to do about Alameda’s debts. The way he tells it, he was packing for a trip to DC and “only kibitzing on parts of the discussion.” It didn’t seem like a crisis, he says. It was a matter of extending a bit more credit to a fund that already traded on margin and still had a pile of collateral worth way more than enough to cover the loan. (Although the pile of collateral was largely shitcoins.)</p><p>“That was the point at which Alameda’s margin position on FTX got, well, it got more leveraged substantially,” he says. “Obviously, in retrospect, we should’ve just said no. I sort of didn’t realize then how large the position had gotten.”</p><p>“You were all aware there was a chance this would not work,” I say.</p><p>“That’s right,” he says. “But I thought that the risk was substantially smaller.”</p><p>I try to imagine what he could’ve been thinking. If FTX had liquidated Alameda’s position, the fund would’ve gone bankrupt, and even if the exchange didn’t take direct losses, customers would’ve lost confidence in it. Bankman-Fried points out that the companies that lent money to Alameda might have failed, too, causing a hard-to-predict cascade of events.</p><p>“Now let’s say you don’t margin call Alameda,” I posit. “Maybe you think there’s like a 70% chance everything will be OK, it’ll all work out?”</p><p>“Yes, but also in the cases where it didn’t work out, I thought the downside was not nearly as high as it was,” he says. “I thought that there was the risk of a much smaller hole. I thought it was going to be manageable.”</p><p>Bankman-Fried pulls out his laptop (an Acer Predator) and opens a spreadsheet to show what he meant. It’s similar to thebalance sheethe reportedly showed investors when he was seeking a last-minute bailout, which he says consolidated FTX and Alameda’s positions because by then the fund had defaulted on its debt. On one line—labeled “What I *thought*”—he lists $8.9 billion in debts and way more than enough money to pay them: $9 billion in liquid assets, $15.4 billion in “less liquid” assets and $3.2 billion in “illiquid” ones. He tells me this was more or less the position he was considering when he had the meeting with the other executives.</p><p>“It looks naively to me like, you know, there’s still some significant liabilities out there, but, like, we should be able to cover it,” he says.</p><p>“So what’s the problem, then?”</p><p>Bankman-Fried points to another place on the spreadsheet, which he says shows the actual truth of the situation at the time of the meeting. This one shows similar numbers, but with $8 billion less liquid assets.</p><p>“What’s the difference between these two rows here?” he asks.</p><p>“You didn’t have $8 billion in cash that you thought you had,” I say.</p><p>“That’s correct. Yes.”</p><p>“You misplaced $8 billion?” I ask.</p><p>“Misaccounted,” Bankman-Fried says, sounding almost proud of his explanation. Sometimes, he says, customers would wire money to Alameda Research instead of sending it directly to FTX. (Some banks were more willing to work with the hedge fund than the exchange, for some reason.) He claims that somehow, FTX’s internal accounting system double-counted this money, essentially crediting it to both the exchange and the fund.</p><p>That still doesn’t explain why the money was gone. “Where did the $8 billion go?” I ask.</p><p>To answer, Bankman-Fried creates a new tab on the spreadsheet and starts typing. He lists Alameda and FTX’s biggest cash flows. One of the biggest expenses is paying a net $2.5 billion toBinance, a rival, to buy out its investment in FTX. He also lists $250 million for real estate, $1.5 billion for expenses, $4 billion for venture capital investments, $1.5 billion for acquisitions and $1 billion labeled “fuckups.” Even accounting for both firms’ profits, and all the venture capital money raised by FTX, it tallies to negative $6.5 billion.</p><p>Bankman-Fried is telling me that the billions of dollars customers wired to Alameda is gone simply because the companies spent way more than they made. He claims he paid so little attention to his expenses that he didn’t realize he was spending more than he was taking in. “I was real lazy about this mental math,” the former physics major says. He creates another column in his spreadsheet and types in much lower numbers to show what he thought he was spending at the time.</p><p>It seems to me like he is, without saying it exactly, blaming his underlings for FTX’s failure, especially Ellison, the head of Alameda. The two had dated and lived together at times. She was part of Bankman-Fried’s Future Fund, which was supposed to distribute FTX and Alameda’s earnings to effective-altruist-approved causes. It seems unlikely she would’ve blown billions of dollars without asking. “People might take, like, the TLDR as, like, it was my ex-girlfriend’s fault,” I tell him. “That is sort of what you’re saying.”</p><p>“I think the biggest failure was that it wasn’t entirely clear whose fault it was,” he says.</p><p>Bankman-Fried tells me he has to make a call. After a while, the sun goes down and I’m hungry. I’m allowed to join a group of Bankman-Fried’s supporters for dinner, as long as I don’t mention their names.</p><p>With the curtains drawn, the living room looks considerably less grand than it does in pictures. I’ve been told that FTX employees gathered here amid the crisis, while Bankman-Fried worked in another apartment. Addled by stress and sleep deprivation, they wept and hugged one another. Most didn’t say goodbye as they left the island, one by one. Many flew back to their childhood homes to be with their parents.</p><p>The supporters at the dinner tell me they feel like the press has been unfair. They say that Bankman-Fried and his friends weren’t the polyamorous partiers the tabloids have portrayed and that they did little besides work. Earlier in the week, a Bahamian man who’d served as FTX’s round-the-clock chauffeur and gofer also told me the reports weren’t true. “People make it seem like this big<i>Wolf of Wall Street</i>thing,” he said. “Bro, it was a bunch of nerds.”</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b87535c118f069e782e80762398d0a9c\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"1000\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Illustration: Maxime Mouysset for Bloomberg Businessweek</p><p>By the time I finish my plate of off-the-record rice and beans, Bankman-Fried is free again. We return to the study. He’s barefoot now, having balled up his gym socks and stuffed them behind a couch cushion. He lies on the couch, his computer on his lap. The light from the screen casts shadows of his curls on his forehead.</p><p>I notice a skin-colored patch on his arm. He tells me it’s a transdermal antidepressant, selegiline. I ask if he’s using it as a performance enhancer or to treat depression. “Nothing’s binary,” he says. “But I’ve been borderline depressed for my whole life.” He adds that he also sometimes takes Adderall—“10 milligrams at a time, a few times a day”—as did some of his colleagues, but that talk of drug use is overblown. “I don’t think that was the problem,” he says.</p><p>I tell Bankman-Fried my theory about his motivation, sidestepping the question of whether he misappropriated customer funds. Bankman-Fried denies that his world-saving goals made him willing to take giant gambles. As we talk more, it seems like he’s saying he made some kind of bet but hadn’t calculated the expected value properly.</p><p>“I was comfortable taking the risk that, like, I may end up kind of falling flat,” he says, staring at his computer screen, where he had pulled up a game and was leading an army of cartoon knights and fairies into battle. “But what actually happened was disastrously bad and, like, no significant chance of that happening would’ve made sense to risk, and that was a fuckup. Like, that was a mass miscalculation in downside.”</p><p>I read Bankman-Fried a post by Will MacAskill, one of the founders of the effective-altruism movement. He recruited Bankman-Fried into it when he was a junior at MIT and this year had joined the board of Bankman-Fried’s Future Fund. On Nov. 11,MacAskill wrote on Twitterthat Bankman-Fried had betrayed him. “For years, the EA community has emphasized the importance of integrity, honesty and the respect of common-sense moral constraints,” MacAskill wrote. “If customer funds were misused, then Sam did not listen; he must have thought he was above such considerations.”</p><p>Bankman-Fried closes his eyes and pushes his toes against one arm of the couch, clenching the other arm with his hands. “That’s not how I view what happened,” he says. “But I did fuck up. I think really what I want to say is, like, I’m really fucking sorry. By far the worst thing about this is that it will tarnish the reputation of people who are dedicated to doing nothing but what they thought was best for the world.” Bankman-Fried trails off. On his computer screen, his army casts spells and swings swords unattended.</p><p>I ask what he’d say to people who are comparing him to the most famous Ponzi schemer of recent times. “Bernie Madoff also said he had good intentions and gave a lot to charity,” I say.</p><p>“FTX was a legitimate, profitable, thriving business. And I fucked up by, like, allowing a margin position to get too big on it. One that endangered the platform. It was a completely unnecessary and unforced error, which like maybe I got super unlucky on, but, like, that was my bad.”</p><p>“It fucking sucks,” he adds. “But it wasn’t inherent to what the business was. It was just a fuckup. A huge fuckup.”</p><p>To me, it doesn’t really seem like a fuckup. Even if I believe that he misplaced and accidentally spent $8 billion, he’s already told me that Alameda had been allowed to violate FTX’s margin rules. This wasn’t some little technical thing. He was so proud of FTX’s margining system that he’d been lobbying regulators for it to be used on US exchanges instead of traditional safeguards. In May, Bankman-Fried himself said on Twitter that exchanges should never extend credit to a fund and put other customers’ assets at risk. He wrote that the idea an exchange would even have that discretion was “scary.” I read him the tweets and ask: “Isn’t that, like, exactly what you did, right around that time?”</p><p>“Yeah, I guess that’s kind of fair,” he says. Then he seems to claim that this was evidence the rules he was lobbying for were a good idea. “I think this is one of the things that would have stopped.”</p><p>“You had a rule on your platform. You didn’t follow it,” I say.</p><p>By now it’s past midnight, and—operating without the benefit of any prescription stimulants—I’m worn out. I ask Bankman-Fried if I can see the apartment’s deck before I leave. Outside, crickets chirp as we stand by the pool. The marina is dark, lit only by the spotlights of yachts. As I say goodbye, Bankman-Fried bites into a burger bun and starts talking about potential bailouts with one of his supporters.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>11 Hours With Sam Bankman-Fried: Inside the Bahamian Penthouse After FTX’s Fall</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n11 Hours With Sam Bankman-Fried: Inside the Bahamian Penthouse After FTX’s Fall\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-03 07:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2022-12-02/inside-sam-bankman-fried-s-bahamian-penthouse-after-ftx-s-collapse?srnd=premium-asia><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Sam Bankman-Fried’s $30 million Bahamas penthouse looks like a dorm after the students have left for winter break. The dishwasher is full. Towels are piled in the laundry room. Bat streamers from a ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2022-12-02/inside-sam-bankman-fried-s-bahamian-penthouse-after-ftx-s-collapse?srnd=premium-asia\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc.","GBTC":"Grayscale Bitcoin Trust"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2022-12-02/inside-sam-bankman-fried-s-bahamian-penthouse-after-ftx-s-collapse?srnd=premium-asia","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1152464265","content_text":"Sam Bankman-Fried’s $30 million Bahamas penthouse looks like a dorm after the students have left for winter break. The dishwasher is full. Towels are piled in the laundry room. Bat streamers from a Halloween party are still hanging from a doorway. Two boxes of Legos sit on the floor of one bedroom. And then there are the shoes—dozens of sneakers and heels piled in the foyer, left behind by employees who fled the island of New Providence last month when his cryptocurrency exchangeFTX imploded.“It’s been an interesting few weeks,” Bankman-Fried says in a chipper tone as he greets me. It’s a muggy Saturday afternoon, eight days after FTX filed for bankruptcy. He’s shoeless, in white gym socks, a red T-shirt and wrinkled khaki shorts. His standard uniform.This isn’t part of the typical tour Bankman-Fried gave to the many reporters who came to tell the tale of the boy-genius-crypto-billionaire who slept on a beanbag chair next to his desk and only got rich so he could give it all away, and it’s easy to see why. The apartment is at the top of one of the luxury condo buildings that border a marina in a gated community called Albany. Outside, deckhands buff the stanchions of a 200-foot yacht owned by a fracking billionaire. A bronze replica of Wall Street’sCharging Bullstatue stands on the lawn, which is as manicured as the residents. I feel like I’ve crash-landed on an alien planet populated solely by the very rich and the people who work for them.Bankman-Fried leads me down a marble-floored hallway to a small bedroom, where he perches on a plush brown couch. Always known for being jittery, he taps his foot so hard it rattles a coffee table, smacks gum and rubs his index finger with his thumb like he’s twirling an invisible fidget spinner. But he seems almost cheerful as he explains why he’s invited me into his 12,000-square-foot bolthole, against the advice of his lawyers, even as investigators from theUS Department of Justice probewhether he used customers’ funds to prop up his hedge fund, a crime that could send him to prison for years. (Spoiler alert: It sure looks like he did.)“What I’m focusing on is what I can do, right now, to try and make things as right as possible,” Bankman-Fried says. “I can’t do that if I’m just focused on covering my ass.”But he seems to be doing just that, with me here and all along the apology tour he’ll later embark on, which will include a video appearance at aNew York Timesconference and an interview onGood Morning America. He’s been trying to blame his firm’s failure on a hazy combination of comically poor bookkeeping, wildly misjudged risks and complete ignorance of what his hedge fund was doing. In other words, an alumnus of both MIT and the elite Wall Street trading firmJane Streetis arguing that he was just dumb with the numbers—not pulling a conscious fraud. Talking in detail to journalists about what’s certain to be the subject of extensive litigation seems like an unusual strategy, but it makes sense: The press helped him create his only-honest-man-in-crypto image, so why not use them to talk his way out of trouble?Bankman-Fried after an interview onBloomberg Wealth With David Rubensteinon Aug. 17, 2022.Photographer: Jeenah Moon/BloombergHe doesn’t say so, but one reason he might be willing to speak with me is that I’m one of the reporters who helped build him up. After spending two days at FTX’s offices in February, I flew past the brightred flagsat his company—its lack of corporate governance, the ties to his Alameda Research hedge fund, its profligate spending on marketing, the fact that it operated largely outside US jurisdiction. Iwrote a storyfocused on whether Bankman-Fried would follow through on his plans to donate huge sums to charity and his connections to an unusual philanthropic movement calledeffective altruism.It wasn’t the most embarrassingly puffy of the many puff pieces that came out about him. (“After my interview with SBF, I was convinced: I was talking to a future trillionaire,” one writer said in an article commissioned by a venture capital firm.) But my tone wasn’t entirely dissimilar. “Bankman-Fried is a thought experiment from a college philosophy seminar come to life,” I wrote. “Should someone who wants to save the world first amass as much money and power as possible, or will the pursuit corrupt him along the way?” Now it seems pretty clear that a better question would’ve been whether the business was ascam from the start.I tell Bankman-Fried I want to talk about the decisions that led to FTX’s collapse, and why he took them. Earlier in the week, inlate-night DM exchangeswith aVoxreporter and on a phone call with a YouTuber, he made comments that many interpreted as an admission that everything he said was a lie. (“So the ethics stuff, mostly a front?” theVoxreporter asked. “Yeah,” Bankman-Fried replied.) He’d spoken so cynically about his motivations that to many it seemed like a comic book character was pulling off his mask to reveal the villain who’d been hiding there all along.I set out on this visit with a different working theory. Maybe I was feeling the tug of my past reporting, but I still didn’t think the talk about charity was all made up. Since he was a teenager, Bankman-Fried has described himself as utilitarian—following the philosophy that the correct action is the one likely to result in the greatest good for the greatest number of people. He said his endgame was making and donating enough money to prevent pandemics and stop runaway artificial intelligence from destroying humanity. Faced with a crisis, and believing he was the hero of his own sci-fi movie, he might’ve thought it was right to make a crazy, even illegal, gamble to save his company.To be clear, if that’s what happened, it’s the logic of a megalomaniac, not a martyr. The money wasn’t his to gamble with, and “the ends justify the means” is a cliché of bad ethics. But if it’s what he believed, he might still think he’d made the right decision, even if it didn’t work out. It seemed to me that’s what he meant when he messagedVox, “The worst quadrant is sketchy + lose. The best is win + ???” I want to probe that, in part because it might get him to talk more candidly about what had happened to his customers’ money.I decide to approach the topic gingerly, on terms I think he’ll relate to, as it seems he’s in less of a crime-confess-y mood. He’s said he likes to evaluate decisions in terms of expected value—the odds of success times the likely payoff—so I begin by asking: “Should I judge you by your impact, or by the expected value of your decision?”“When all is said and done, what matters is your actual realized impact. Like, that’s what actually matters to the world,” he says. “But, obviously, there’s luck.”That’s the in I’m looking for. For the next 11 hours—with breaks for fundraising calls and a very awkward dinner—I try to get him to tell me exactly what he meant. He denies that he’s committed fraud or lied to anyone and blames FTX’s failure on his sloppiness and inattention. But at points it seems like he’s saying he gotunlucky, or miscalculated the odds.Bankman-Fried tells me he’s still got a chance to raise $8 billion to save his company. He seems delusional, or committed to pretending this is still an error he can fix, and either way, the few supporters remaining at his penthouse seem unlikely to set him straight. The grim scene reminds me a bit of the end ofScarface, with Tony Montana holed up in his mansion, semi-incoherent, his unknown enemies sneaking closer. But instead of mountains of cocaine, Bankman-Fried is clinging to spreadsheet tabs filled with wildly optimistic cryptocurrency valuations.Think of FTX like an offshore casino. Customers sent in money, then gambled on the price of hundreds ofcryptocurrencies—not just Bitcoin or Ether, but more obscure coins. In crypto slang, the latter are called shitcoins, because almost no one knows what they’re for. But in the past few years, otherwise respectable people, from retired dentists to heads of state, convinced themselves that these coins werethe future of finance. Or at least that enough other people might think so to make the price go up. Bankman-Fried’s casino was growing so fast that earlier this year some of Silicon Valley’s top venture capitalists invested in it at a $32 billion valuation.The problem surfaced last month. After a rival crypto-casino kingpin raised concerns about FTX on Twitter, customers rushed to cash in their chips. But when Bankman-Fried’s casino opened the vault, their money wasn’t there. According to multiple news reports citing people familiar with the matter, it had been secretly lent to Bankman-Fried’s hedge fund, which had lost it in some mix of bad bets, insane spending and perhaps something even sketchier. John Ray III, the lawyer who’s now chief executive officer of the bankrupt exchange, has alleged in court that FTX covered up the loans using secret software.Bankman-Fried denies this again to me. Returning to the framework of expected value, I ask him if the decisions he made were correct.“I think that I’ve made a lot of plus-EV decisions and a few very large boneheaded decisions,” he says. “Certainly in retrospect, those very large decisions were very bad, and may end up overwhelming everything else.”The chain of events, in his telling, started about four years ago. Bankman-Fried was in Hong Kong, where he’d moved from Berkeley, California, with a small group of friends from the effective-altruism community. Together they ran a successful startup crypto hedge fund,Alameda Research. (The name itself was an early example of his casual attitude toward rules—it was chosen to avoid scrutiny from banks, which frequently closed its accounts. “If we named our company like, Shitcoin Daytraders Inc., they’d probably just reject us,” Bankman-Fried told a podcaster in 2021. “But, I mean, no one doesn’t like research.”)The fund had made millions of dollars exploiting inefficiencies across cryptocurrency exchanges. (Ex-employees, even those otherwise critical of Bankman-Fried, have said this is true, though some have said Alameda then lost some of that money because of bad trades and mismanagement.) Bankman-Fried and his friends began considering starting their own exchange—what would become FTX.The way Bankman-Fried later described this decision reveals his attitude toward risk. He estimated there was an 80% chance the exchange would fail to attract enough customers. But he’s said one should always take a bet, even a long-shot one, if the expected value is positive, calling this stance “risk neutral.” But it actually meant he would take risks that to a normal person sound insane. “As an individual, to make a bet where it’s like, ‘I’m going to gamble my $10 billion and either get $20 billion or $0, with equal probability,’ would be madness,” Rob Wiblin, host of an effective-altruism podcast, said to Bankman-Fried in April. “But from an altruistic point of view, it’s not so crazy.”“Completely agree,” Bankman-Fried replied. He told another interviewer that he’d make a bet described as a chance of “51% you double the earth out somewhere else, 49% it all disappears.”Bankman-Fried and his friends jump-started FTX by having Alameda provide liquidity. It was a huge conflict of interest. Imagine if the top executives at an online poker site also entered its high-stakes tournaments—the temptation to cheat by peeking at other players’ cards would be huge. But Bankman-Fried assured customers that Alameda would play by the same rules as everyone else, and enough people came to trade that FTX took off. “Having Alameda provide liquidity on FTX early on was the right decision, because I think that helped make FTX a great product for users, even though it obviously ended up backfiring,” Bankman-Fried tells me.Part of FTX’s appeal was that it was mostly a derivatives exchange, which allowed customers to trade “on margin,” meaning with borrowed money. That’s a key to his defense. Bankman-Fried argues no one should be surprised that big traders on FTX, including Alameda, were borrowing from the exchange, and that his fund’s position just somehow got out of hand. “Everyone was borrowing and lending,” he says. “That’s been its calling card.” But FTX’s normal margin system, crypto traders tell me, would never have permitted anyone to accumulate a debt that looked like Alameda’s. When I ask if Alameda had to follow the same margin rules as other traders, he admits the fund did not. “There was more leeway,” he says.That wouldn’t have been so important had Alameda stuck to its original trading strategy of relatively low-risk arbitrage trades. But in 2020 and 2021, as Bankman-Fried became the face of FTX, amajor political donorand a favorite of Silicon Valley, Alameda faced more competition in that market-making business. It shifted its strategy to, essentially, gambling on shitcoins.As Caroline Ellison, then Alameda’s co-CEO, explained in aMarch 2021 post on Twitter: “The way to really make money is figure out when the market is going to go up and get balls long before that,” she wrote, adding that she’d learned the strategy from the classic market-manipulation memoir,Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.Her co-CEO said in another tweet that a profitable strategy was buying Dogecoin becauseElon Musktweeted about it.The reason they were bragging about what sounded like a high schooler’s tactics was that it was working better than anyone knew. When we spoke in February 2022, Bankman-Fried told me that Alameda had made $1 billion the previous year. He now says that was Alameda’s arbitrage profits. On top of that, its shitcoins gained tens of billions of dollars of value, at least on paper. “If you mark everything to market, I do believe at one point my net worth got to $100 billion,” Bankman-Fried says.Any trader would know this wasn’t nearly as good as it sounded. The large pile of tokens couldn’t be turned into cash without crashing the market. Much of it was even made of tokens that Bankman-Fried and his friends had spun up themselves, such as FTT, Serum or Maps—the official currency of a nonsensical crypto-meets-mapping app—or were closely affiliated with, like Solana. While Bankman-Fried acknowledges the pile was worth something less than $100 billion—maybe he’d mark it down a third, he says—he maintains that he could have extracted quite a lot of real money from his holdings.But he didn’t. Instead, Alameda borrowed billions of dollars from other crypto lenders—not FTX—and sunk them into more crypto bets. Publicly, Bankman-Fried presented himself as an ethical operator andcalled for regulationto rein in crypto’s worst excesses. But through his hedge fund, he’d actually become the market’s most degenerate gambler. I ask him why, if he really thought he could sell the tokens, he didn’t. “Why not, like, take some risk off?”“OK. In retrospect, absolutely. That would’ve been the right, like, unambiguously the right thing to do,” he says. “But also it was just, like, hilariously well-capitalized.”Near the peak of the great shitcoin boom, in April 2022, FTX hosted a lavish conference at a resort and casino in Nassau. It was Bankman-Fried’s coming out party. He got to share the stage with quarterback Tom Brady. Also there: former Prime Minister Tony Blair and ex-President Bill Clinton, who extended a fatherly hand when the young crypto executive seemed nervous. The author Michael Lewis, who’s working on a book about Bankman-Fried, praised him in a fawning interview onstage. “You’re breaking land speed records. And I don’t think people are really noticing what’s happened, just how dramatic the revolution has become,” Lewis said, asking when crypto would take over Wall Street.The next month, thecrypto crash began. It started when a popular set of coins called Terra and Luna collapsed, wiping out $60 billion. Terra and Luna were almost openly a Ponzi scheme, but some of the biggest crypto funds had invested in them with borrowed money and went bankrupt. This made the lenders who’d lent billions of dollars to Alameda nervous. They asked Alameda to repay the loans, with real money. It needed billions of dollars, fast, or it would go bust.There are two different versions of what happened next. Two people with knowledge of the matter told me that Ellison, by then the sole head of Alameda, had told her side of the story to her staff amid the crisis. Ellison said that she, Bankman-Fried and his two top lieutenants—Gary Wang and Nishad Singh—had discussed the shortfall. Instead of admitting Alameda’s failure, they decided to use FTX customer funds to cover it, according to the people. If that’s true, all four executives would’ve knowingly committed fraud. (Ellison, Wang and Singh didn’t respond to messages seeking comment.)When I put this to Bankman-Fried, he screws up his eyes, furrows his eyebrows, puts his hands in his hair and thinks for a few seconds.“So, it’s not how I remember what happened,” Bankman-Fried says. But he surprises me by acknowledging that there had been a meeting, post-Luna crash, where they debated what to do about Alameda’s debts. The way he tells it, he was packing for a trip to DC and “only kibitzing on parts of the discussion.” It didn’t seem like a crisis, he says. It was a matter of extending a bit more credit to a fund that already traded on margin and still had a pile of collateral worth way more than enough to cover the loan. (Although the pile of collateral was largely shitcoins.)“That was the point at which Alameda’s margin position on FTX got, well, it got more leveraged substantially,” he says. “Obviously, in retrospect, we should’ve just said no. I sort of didn’t realize then how large the position had gotten.”“You were all aware there was a chance this would not work,” I say.“That’s right,” he says. “But I thought that the risk was substantially smaller.”I try to imagine what he could’ve been thinking. If FTX had liquidated Alameda’s position, the fund would’ve gone bankrupt, and even if the exchange didn’t take direct losses, customers would’ve lost confidence in it. Bankman-Fried points out that the companies that lent money to Alameda might have failed, too, causing a hard-to-predict cascade of events.“Now let’s say you don’t margin call Alameda,” I posit. “Maybe you think there’s like a 70% chance everything will be OK, it’ll all work out?”“Yes, but also in the cases where it didn’t work out, I thought the downside was not nearly as high as it was,” he says. “I thought that there was the risk of a much smaller hole. I thought it was going to be manageable.”Bankman-Fried pulls out his laptop (an Acer Predator) and opens a spreadsheet to show what he meant. It’s similar to thebalance sheethe reportedly showed investors when he was seeking a last-minute bailout, which he says consolidated FTX and Alameda’s positions because by then the fund had defaulted on its debt. On one line—labeled “What I *thought*”—he lists $8.9 billion in debts and way more than enough money to pay them: $9 billion in liquid assets, $15.4 billion in “less liquid” assets and $3.2 billion in “illiquid” ones. He tells me this was more or less the position he was considering when he had the meeting with the other executives.“It looks naively to me like, you know, there’s still some significant liabilities out there, but, like, we should be able to cover it,” he says.“So what’s the problem, then?”Bankman-Fried points to another place on the spreadsheet, which he says shows the actual truth of the situation at the time of the meeting. This one shows similar numbers, but with $8 billion less liquid assets.“What’s the difference between these two rows here?” he asks.“You didn’t have $8 billion in cash that you thought you had,” I say.“That’s correct. Yes.”“You misplaced $8 billion?” I ask.“Misaccounted,” Bankman-Fried says, sounding almost proud of his explanation. Sometimes, he says, customers would wire money to Alameda Research instead of sending it directly to FTX. (Some banks were more willing to work with the hedge fund than the exchange, for some reason.) He claims that somehow, FTX’s internal accounting system double-counted this money, essentially crediting it to both the exchange and the fund.That still doesn’t explain why the money was gone. “Where did the $8 billion go?” I ask.To answer, Bankman-Fried creates a new tab on the spreadsheet and starts typing. He lists Alameda and FTX’s biggest cash flows. One of the biggest expenses is paying a net $2.5 billion toBinance, a rival, to buy out its investment in FTX. He also lists $250 million for real estate, $1.5 billion for expenses, $4 billion for venture capital investments, $1.5 billion for acquisitions and $1 billion labeled “fuckups.” Even accounting for both firms’ profits, and all the venture capital money raised by FTX, it tallies to negative $6.5 billion.Bankman-Fried is telling me that the billions of dollars customers wired to Alameda is gone simply because the companies spent way more than they made. He claims he paid so little attention to his expenses that he didn’t realize he was spending more than he was taking in. “I was real lazy about this mental math,” the former physics major says. He creates another column in his spreadsheet and types in much lower numbers to show what he thought he was spending at the time.It seems to me like he is, without saying it exactly, blaming his underlings for FTX’s failure, especially Ellison, the head of Alameda. The two had dated and lived together at times. She was part of Bankman-Fried’s Future Fund, which was supposed to distribute FTX and Alameda’s earnings to effective-altruist-approved causes. It seems unlikely she would’ve blown billions of dollars without asking. “People might take, like, the TLDR as, like, it was my ex-girlfriend’s fault,” I tell him. “That is sort of what you’re saying.”“I think the biggest failure was that it wasn’t entirely clear whose fault it was,” he says.Bankman-Fried tells me he has to make a call. After a while, the sun goes down and I’m hungry. I’m allowed to join a group of Bankman-Fried’s supporters for dinner, as long as I don’t mention their names.With the curtains drawn, the living room looks considerably less grand than it does in pictures. I’ve been told that FTX employees gathered here amid the crisis, while Bankman-Fried worked in another apartment. Addled by stress and sleep deprivation, they wept and hugged one another. Most didn’t say goodbye as they left the island, one by one. Many flew back to their childhood homes to be with their parents.The supporters at the dinner tell me they feel like the press has been unfair. They say that Bankman-Fried and his friends weren’t the polyamorous partiers the tabloids have portrayed and that they did little besides work. Earlier in the week, a Bahamian man who’d served as FTX’s round-the-clock chauffeur and gofer also told me the reports weren’t true. “People make it seem like this bigWolf of Wall Streetthing,” he said. “Bro, it was a bunch of nerds.”Illustration: Maxime Mouysset for Bloomberg BusinessweekBy the time I finish my plate of off-the-record rice and beans, Bankman-Fried is free again. We return to the study. He’s barefoot now, having balled up his gym socks and stuffed them behind a couch cushion. He lies on the couch, his computer on his lap. The light from the screen casts shadows of his curls on his forehead.I notice a skin-colored patch on his arm. He tells me it’s a transdermal antidepressant, selegiline. I ask if he’s using it as a performance enhancer or to treat depression. “Nothing’s binary,” he says. “But I’ve been borderline depressed for my whole life.” He adds that he also sometimes takes Adderall—“10 milligrams at a time, a few times a day”—as did some of his colleagues, but that talk of drug use is overblown. “I don’t think that was the problem,” he says.I tell Bankman-Fried my theory about his motivation, sidestepping the question of whether he misappropriated customer funds. Bankman-Fried denies that his world-saving goals made him willing to take giant gambles. As we talk more, it seems like he’s saying he made some kind of bet but hadn’t calculated the expected value properly.“I was comfortable taking the risk that, like, I may end up kind of falling flat,” he says, staring at his computer screen, where he had pulled up a game and was leading an army of cartoon knights and fairies into battle. “But what actually happened was disastrously bad and, like, no significant chance of that happening would’ve made sense to risk, and that was a fuckup. Like, that was a mass miscalculation in downside.”I read Bankman-Fried a post by Will MacAskill, one of the founders of the effective-altruism movement. He recruited Bankman-Fried into it when he was a junior at MIT and this year had joined the board of Bankman-Fried’s Future Fund. On Nov. 11,MacAskill wrote on Twitterthat Bankman-Fried had betrayed him. “For years, the EA community has emphasized the importance of integrity, honesty and the respect of common-sense moral constraints,” MacAskill wrote. “If customer funds were misused, then Sam did not listen; he must have thought he was above such considerations.”Bankman-Fried closes his eyes and pushes his toes against one arm of the couch, clenching the other arm with his hands. “That’s not how I view what happened,” he says. “But I did fuck up. I think really what I want to say is, like, I’m really fucking sorry. By far the worst thing about this is that it will tarnish the reputation of people who are dedicated to doing nothing but what they thought was best for the world.” Bankman-Fried trails off. On his computer screen, his army casts spells and swings swords unattended.I ask what he’d say to people who are comparing him to the most famous Ponzi schemer of recent times. “Bernie Madoff also said he had good intentions and gave a lot to charity,” I say.“FTX was a legitimate, profitable, thriving business. And I fucked up by, like, allowing a margin position to get too big on it. One that endangered the platform. It was a completely unnecessary and unforced error, which like maybe I got super unlucky on, but, like, that was my bad.”“It fucking sucks,” he adds. “But it wasn’t inherent to what the business was. It was just a fuckup. A huge fuckup.”To me, it doesn’t really seem like a fuckup. Even if I believe that he misplaced and accidentally spent $8 billion, he’s already told me that Alameda had been allowed to violate FTX’s margin rules. This wasn’t some little technical thing. He was so proud of FTX’s margining system that he’d been lobbying regulators for it to be used on US exchanges instead of traditional safeguards. In May, Bankman-Fried himself said on Twitter that exchanges should never extend credit to a fund and put other customers’ assets at risk. He wrote that the idea an exchange would even have that discretion was “scary.” I read him the tweets and ask: “Isn’t that, like, exactly what you did, right around that time?”“Yeah, I guess that’s kind of fair,” he says. Then he seems to claim that this was evidence the rules he was lobbying for were a good idea. “I think this is one of the things that would have stopped.”“You had a rule on your platform. You didn’t follow it,” I say.By now it’s past midnight, and—operating without the benefit of any prescription stimulants—I’m worn out. I ask Bankman-Fried if I can see the apartment’s deck before I leave. Outside, crickets chirp as we stand by the pool. The marina is dark, lit only by the spotlights of yachts. As I say goodbye, Bankman-Fried bites into a burger bun and starts talking about potential bailouts with one of his supporters.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":323,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9962789124,"gmtCreate":1669849498368,"gmtModify":1676538254418,"author":{"id":"4129173637846012","authorId":"4129173637846012","name":"Csd","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c94468b485a22bdb5cf61a9d32169cc0","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9962789124","repostId":"1176439361","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":421,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9962320695,"gmtCreate":1669725892118,"gmtModify":1676538229948,"author":{"id":"4129173637846012","authorId":"4129173637846012","name":"Csd","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c94468b485a22bdb5cf61a9d32169cc0","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9962320695","repostId":"1123801521","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1123801521","pubTimestamp":1669723755,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1123801521?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-11-29 20:09","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple’s Stock Buyback Bonanza Helps to Buoy Shares in Market Slump","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1123801521","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"Apple has spent $550 billion on repurchases in a decadeCash returns help offset short-term concerns ","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul><li>Apple has spent $550 billion on repurchases in a decade</li><li>Cash returns help offset short-term concerns on iPhone output</li></ul><p>Apple Inc. has shelled out more than $550 billion buying back its own shares over the past decade, more than any other US company, and the technology juggernaut shows no signs of slowing down.</p><p>Even with the stock under pressure the past few days because of production delays for its newest handsets, Apple has fared better than other megacap tech companies in this year’s bear market. Solid earnings and generous buybacks have become a central part of the investment thesis, making the stock more attractive during turbulent times.</p><h3>Massive Buybacks</h3><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e5bdcde57916bace21e91d2ef7beada\" tg-width=\"637\" tg-height=\"351\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>“That’s how they get the safe haven, the gold standard view from investors,” said Gene Munster, who covered Apple during a 21-year career as an analyst before co-founding venture-capital firm Loup Ventures. “When they just keep showing up and generating the kind of cash they do and buying their own stock back, it sends a strong message and I think they’ll continue to do that as much as they can.”</p><p>The next signpost for investors about Apple’s appetite for its own stock will come in April, which is when the company typically tops up its repurchase authorization. It’s added $90 billion to the program in each of the past two years. It’s still generating the earnings to replenish its bank account: It was the only megacap to rally in the wake of its results this quarter, and the report kept analysts from dramatically slashing estimates, in contrast to widespread cuts at its peers.</p><h3>Net Cash Neutral</h3><p>Even with economies slowing around the world, demand is still strong for Apple’s most expensive iPhones, analysts say. The problem now is manufacturing delays because of Covid lockdowns in China, leading to what analysts say are record wait times for deliveries just as the holiday shopping season kicks off. While that may cause a short-term hit to revenue, there’s no sign it’s denting the longer-term case for the stock.</p><p>Apple accumulated cash for years under co-founder Steve Jobs, and Chief Executive Officer Tim Cook has been working on ways to better invest the money and return it to shareholders. Apple, which ended last quarter with $169 billion in cash and marketable securities, aims to have net cash -- cash minus debt outstanding -- of zero in the future.</p><p>“This is an aggressive bet that they made, something that Steve Jobs would have never done, and it’s paid off nicely for the company and its investors in part because the stock has done well during that period,” Munster said of the share repurchases.</p><p>Apple, the world’s largest company with a market value of almost $2.3 trillion, also is in a league of its own when it comes to share buybacks.</p><p>In two of the last five years, it has outspent the second-highest repurchaser by least $50 billion. It spent almost $90 billion last year, about equal to the market value of Citigroup Inc.</p><h3>Dominating Buyback Charts</h3><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e504e54952af625c58fcc077c57dc4c2\" tg-width=\"642\" tg-height=\"371\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Investors like buybacks because they reduce a company’s share count and thereby provide a lift to earnings per share. The risk is that a company overpays, buying at a time when the stock is overvalued. Apple, though, says it’s paid an average price of $47 a share since it began buying back stock a decade ago, compared with the current share price of $144.22.</p><p>Apple has steered clear from using its cash pile to make large acquisitions, at a time when scrutiny of the size and clout of megacap tech firms is rising. Bulls say buybacks have been a good strategy for the company, until it turns its resources to a new product category like automotive, which could prove more capital intensive.</p><p>“In general, investors would like to see cash being used to generate growth,” said Lewis Grant, senior portfolio manager for global equities at Federated Hermes Ltd. “But when you look at a company the size of Apple and the amount of cash that we’re really talking about, deploying tens of billions of dollars every year to generate growth is perhaps overly ambitious.”</p><p>Apple also pays a cash dividend, but it’s almost an afterthought. The quarterly payout of 23 cents a share equals 0.6% of the stock price, one of the lowest yields in the S&amp;P 500 index. Apple raised the payout by a penny in May and said it’s committed to annual increases.</p><p>However, investors don’t seem overly concerned how the company chooses to return capital, as long as they continue to do so.</p><p>“We actually don’t care which way you send the capital back to us,” said Mark Stoeckle, Adams Funds’ chief executive officer, adding that Apple would have to raise its dividend by “an enormous amount” to get to a yield that would matter. “We just don’t see that happening, so we’re just as happy with the stock buyback.”</p><h3>Tech Chart of the Day</h3><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa7ca1712e341191ddece38007542608\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"348\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Activision Blizzard Inc. analysts are growing more positive on the video-game maker, seeing value in the stock even as Microsoft Corp.’s planned acquisition looks increasingly dicey. At least six firms have upgraded their ratings in November, including three on Monday. The trend has lifted the Bloomberg consensus rating on the stock -- a ratio of its buy, hold and sell ratings -- to 4.6 out of 5, its highest since January, and up from an April low of 3.94. This has made Activision nearly as well liked among Wall Street analysts as Take-Two Interactive Software Inc., which boasts a consensus rating of 4.57, and above Electronic Arts Inc., which has a consensus rating of 4.29.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple’s Stock Buyback Bonanza Helps to Buoy Shares in Market Slump</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple’s Stock Buyback Bonanza Helps to Buoy Shares in Market Slump\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-29 20:09 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-29/apple-aapl-stock-buyback-bonanza-helps-to-buoy-stock-in-market-slump?srnd=premium><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Apple has spent $550 billion on repurchases in a decadeCash returns help offset short-term concerns on iPhone outputApple Inc. has shelled out more than $550 billion buying back its own shares over ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-29/apple-aapl-stock-buyback-bonanza-helps-to-buoy-stock-in-market-slump?srnd=premium\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-29/apple-aapl-stock-buyback-bonanza-helps-to-buoy-stock-in-market-slump?srnd=premium","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1123801521","content_text":"Apple has spent $550 billion on repurchases in a decadeCash returns help offset short-term concerns on iPhone outputApple Inc. has shelled out more than $550 billion buying back its own shares over the past decade, more than any other US company, and the technology juggernaut shows no signs of slowing down.Even with the stock under pressure the past few days because of production delays for its newest handsets, Apple has fared better than other megacap tech companies in this year’s bear market. Solid earnings and generous buybacks have become a central part of the investment thesis, making the stock more attractive during turbulent times.Massive Buybacks“That’s how they get the safe haven, the gold standard view from investors,” said Gene Munster, who covered Apple during a 21-year career as an analyst before co-founding venture-capital firm Loup Ventures. “When they just keep showing up and generating the kind of cash they do and buying their own stock back, it sends a strong message and I think they’ll continue to do that as much as they can.”The next signpost for investors about Apple’s appetite for its own stock will come in April, which is when the company typically tops up its repurchase authorization. It’s added $90 billion to the program in each of the past two years. It’s still generating the earnings to replenish its bank account: It was the only megacap to rally in the wake of its results this quarter, and the report kept analysts from dramatically slashing estimates, in contrast to widespread cuts at its peers.Net Cash NeutralEven with economies slowing around the world, demand is still strong for Apple’s most expensive iPhones, analysts say. The problem now is manufacturing delays because of Covid lockdowns in China, leading to what analysts say are record wait times for deliveries just as the holiday shopping season kicks off. While that may cause a short-term hit to revenue, there’s no sign it’s denting the longer-term case for the stock.Apple accumulated cash for years under co-founder Steve Jobs, and Chief Executive Officer Tim Cook has been working on ways to better invest the money and return it to shareholders. Apple, which ended last quarter with $169 billion in cash and marketable securities, aims to have net cash -- cash minus debt outstanding -- of zero in the future.“This is an aggressive bet that they made, something that Steve Jobs would have never done, and it’s paid off nicely for the company and its investors in part because the stock has done well during that period,” Munster said of the share repurchases.Apple, the world’s largest company with a market value of almost $2.3 trillion, also is in a league of its own when it comes to share buybacks.In two of the last five years, it has outspent the second-highest repurchaser by least $50 billion. It spent almost $90 billion last year, about equal to the market value of Citigroup Inc.Dominating Buyback ChartsInvestors like buybacks because they reduce a company’s share count and thereby provide a lift to earnings per share. The risk is that a company overpays, buying at a time when the stock is overvalued. Apple, though, says it’s paid an average price of $47 a share since it began buying back stock a decade ago, compared with the current share price of $144.22.Apple has steered clear from using its cash pile to make large acquisitions, at a time when scrutiny of the size and clout of megacap tech firms is rising. Bulls say buybacks have been a good strategy for the company, until it turns its resources to a new product category like automotive, which could prove more capital intensive.“In general, investors would like to see cash being used to generate growth,” said Lewis Grant, senior portfolio manager for global equities at Federated Hermes Ltd. “But when you look at a company the size of Apple and the amount of cash that we’re really talking about, deploying tens of billions of dollars every year to generate growth is perhaps overly ambitious.”Apple also pays a cash dividend, but it’s almost an afterthought. The quarterly payout of 23 cents a share equals 0.6% of the stock price, one of the lowest yields in the S&P 500 index. Apple raised the payout by a penny in May and said it’s committed to annual increases.However, investors don’t seem overly concerned how the company chooses to return capital, as long as they continue to do so.“We actually don’t care which way you send the capital back to us,” said Mark Stoeckle, Adams Funds’ chief executive officer, adding that Apple would have to raise its dividend by “an enormous amount” to get to a yield that would matter. “We just don’t see that happening, so we’re just as happy with the stock buyback.”Tech Chart of the DayActivision Blizzard Inc. analysts are growing more positive on the video-game maker, seeing value in the stock even as Microsoft Corp.’s planned acquisition looks increasingly dicey. At least six firms have upgraded their ratings in November, including three on Monday. The trend has lifted the Bloomberg consensus rating on the stock -- a ratio of its buy, hold and sell ratings -- to 4.6 out of 5, its highest since January, and up from an April low of 3.94. This has made Activision nearly as well liked among Wall Street analysts as Take-Two Interactive Software Inc., which boasts a consensus rating of 4.57, and above Electronic Arts Inc., which has a consensus rating of 4.29.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":164,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9962320965,"gmtCreate":1669725821057,"gmtModify":1676538229934,"author":{"id":"4129173637846012","authorId":"4129173637846012","name":"Csd","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c94468b485a22bdb5cf61a9d32169cc0","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9962320965","repostId":"1173876241","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":411,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9966647992,"gmtCreate":1669528009617,"gmtModify":1676538205237,"author":{"id":"4129173637846012","authorId":"4129173637846012","name":"Csd","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c94468b485a22bdb5cf61a9d32169cc0","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":19,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9966647992","repostId":"1170146184","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":268,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9966647098,"gmtCreate":1669527977915,"gmtModify":1676538205232,"author":{"id":"4129173637846012","authorId":"4129173637846012","name":"Csd","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c94468b485a22bdb5cf61a9d32169cc0","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9966647098","repostId":"1102414813","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1102414813","pubTimestamp":1669338003,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1102414813?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-11-25 09:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla: The Bubble Is Popping","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1102414813","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryTesla has seen its shares underperform widely in 2022 so far.The company faces a wide range of issues, including declining prices, slowing demand, and so on.Tesla is still not cheap despite the","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Tesla has seen its shares underperform widely in 2022 so far.</li><li>The company faces a wide range of issues, including declining prices, slowing demand, and so on.</li><li>Tesla is still not cheap despite the hefty pullback in 2022. Shares could fall further.</li></ul><p><b>Article Thesis</b></p><p>Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) is one of the companies that benefitted the most from ultra-low interest rates and that saw its market capitalization expand massively during the pandemic-impacted years 2020 and 2021. Things are changing, however, and Tesla has vastly underperformed the market so far this year. A multitude of issues hurts Tesla&#39;s near-term and longer-term outlook, and since shares are not cheap despite the share price drop this year, there is further downside potential.</p><p><b>Tesla Is Facing Many Issues</b></p><p>Let&#39;s start with something positive: Tesla is a leading EV player that will generate compelling business growth this year and that operates with above-average margins. That&#39;s a pretty strong result for a company that has not been around for many decades.</p><p>That being said, Tesla is facing a range of headwinds in the coming quarters and years, some of them company-specific, while others are driven by an adverse macro environment. Let&#39;s take a look at some of the key issues that could be a problem for Tesla going forward:</p><p><b>Pricing And Demand Problems In China</b></p><p>China is, by far, the most important country for Tesla, both when it comes to production and when it comes to sales. Tesla&#39;s factory in China is its most profitable one, making Tesla&#39;s China business integral to the company as a whole. In China, Tesla is seemingly facing considerable headwinds.</p><p>The company has been lowering prices repeatedly over the last couple of months, and yet, demand has not been as strong as Tesla hoped it would be, some reports suggest. See, for example, the following excerpt from a report from Seeking Alpha:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b28c18f93d3e288dcab7d0fb0d75c67\" tg-width=\"598\" tg-height=\"130\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p>Ideally, investors want to invest in companies with pricing power, where customers are buying up products even as prices increase. Think, for example, Apple&#39;s (AAPL) ability to sell more and more iPhones despite rising prices. Tesla has lowered the price of its vehicles in China repeatedly, and yet it looks like demand is waning. After all, there&#39;s a wide range of reports that show that delivery times of Tesla&#39;s vehicles are declining. This, in turn, suggests that Tesla&#39;s backlog is shrinking, i.e. fewer new orders are coming in relative to the vehicles Tesla produces.</p><p>The combination of declining delivery times and declining prices suggests trouble for Tesla in its most important market. Either, the company will have to lower prices further in order to revive demand, which would put even more pressure on margins, or Tesla could face a situation where it cannot fill capacity, as there aren&#39;t enough orders once Tesla has worked through its backlog. Both situations suggest that profitability in Tesla&#39;s most important market could come under pressure in the coming quarters.</p><p><b>Reliance On China</b></p><p>There&#39;s also another China-specific risk. Apart from China-based equities, which are oftentimes priced for disaster today, Tesla could be one of the most exposed companies to this macro risk. It relies heavily on China for manufacturing, it relies heavily on China for sales, as China is the largest EV market in the world, and due to China&#39;s dominance when it comes to battery production and all kinds of materials, Tesla also relies heavily on China for supplies. It seems possible that investors will increasingly factor this into their investment decisions, which could result in share price headwinds for Tesla.</p><p><b>Growing Competition</b></p><p>Another risk factor for Tesla is rising competition. It&#39;s true that competition has been a bear argument for years, but it increasingly looks like this is now, in fact, becoming a problem. Not only has Tesla lost the advantage in the highly important electric truck business, as its Cybertruck is still not available while competitors Ford (F) and Rivian (RIVN) are successfully selling their electric pickups, but Tesla is also at risk of losing its leadership position in the EV space, overall. BYD (OTCPK: BYDDY)(OTCPK: BYDDF) has emerged as an extremely capable, fast-growing EV player that could sell more EVs next year, even when we do not count plug-in hybrids. In October, BYDsold103,000 pure EVs (220,000 including PHEVs), with a growth rate of 150% year over year. That annualizes at more than 1.2 million, with a growth rate that is way higher than the growth rate Tesla has achieved in the recent past. If these trends continue, BYD will easily become the leader in the global EV space by volume, which could put pressure on Tesla&#39;s margins (as BYD could lower market-wide prices thanks to better scale), and which could also result in less interest in Tesla by investors.</p><p>Add other emerging competitors both on the high end, such as Lucid (LCID), and in the value segment (e.g. XPeng (XPEV)), and the picture could be getting worse for Tesla.</p><p><b>Musk&#39;s Behavior</b></p><p>Elon Musk, Tesla&#39;s CEO, is a controversial person. He has many fans, but he also has many critics. And recent things he did could have a negative impact on Tesla&#39;s future performance, I believe.</p><p>First, his actions as the new owner of Twitter did not make everyone happy. Some reacted very negatively to the changes he brought -- it&#39;s possible that this will make some people reconsider buying another EV from Tesla. His suggestions for a peace plan in Ukraine also resulted in some negative PR, which could further reduce the number of people willing to buy from his companies. These controversial actions also could result in more scrutiny by regulators.</p><p>Second, he is now very occupied with Twitter, which will arguably mean that he has less time guiding Tesla. When his time is diverted across many different projects, that could negatively influence the decisions he makes, which could hurt Tesla in the long run.</p><p>Last but not least, Musk continues to sell parts of his stake in Tesla -- despite the fact that hestated that he was &#34;almost done selling&#34; one year ago. Ongoing selling by the most important insider could hurt sentiment further -- that has already been visible in some statements, comments, etc. from investors, and if Musk continues to sell shares, that will likely accelerate.</p><p>So while Elon Musk surely had a large positive impact on Tesla&#39;s performance in the past, Elon Musk&#39;s importance as a Tesla insider also poses a risk for investors that shouldn&#39;t be neglected.</p><p><b>The Macro Environment Is Far From Great</b></p><p>Another problem for Tesla is that the macro environment in many parts of the world isn&#39;t great. Lockdowns in China hurt demand and consumer sentiment, while an energy crisis in Europe and record-high inflation will hurt consumers&#39; ability to buy high-priced vehicles. In the US, inflation remains well above the norm as well, pressuring real disposable income:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/788b74c5822453891b0d2ebda7d1387e\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Data by YCharts</p><p>With consumers being under pressure, their ability and willingness to buy high-end vehicles will likely shrink. Add rising interest rates, and financing a new vehicle becomes even less attractive. With many people expecting a recession in the US in 2023, it is likely that Tesla and other automobile companies will feel headwinds from an adverse macro environment.</p><p><b>Tesla: A Cheap Money Bubble Stock</b></p><p>Over the last couple of years, and especially in 2020 and 2021, money was ultra-cheap. With interest rates at a very low level, and with investors being interested in ESG themes, higher-growth story stocks such as Tesla saw their valuations expand massively:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e921162860df808f7e3ecd1edbc10886\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Data by YCharts</p><p>Between early 2017 and early 2022, Tesla saw its revenue grow by an attractive 670%. Its market capitalization, however, expanded by more than 3,000% -- there clearly was a big disconnect between Tesla&#39;s underlying performance and the way the market valued the company. As we can see in the above chart, that was mainly due to the massive share price gains in 2020 and 2021 -- before that, Tesla&#39;s revenue had outperformed its market capitalization gains.</p><p>When seemingly endless sums of money are flowing into a stock despite the fact that the underlying performance is lagging far behind, that poses the risk of creating a bubble. Similar issues were visible in other EV stocks at the time, but Tesla has, by far, been the EV stock with the highest market cap, thus the problem was especially noteworthy here. At the peak, Tesla was trading with a market capitalization north of $1.2 trillion, which was an outrageously high company value not too long ago. Even today, only a small number of companies are trading with a market capitalization this high.</p><p>So far this year, Tesla has declined by close to 60%, destroying hundreds of billions of dollars in value. Those that bought Tesla early on are still easily in positive territory, but for those that bought over the last two years or so, Tesla has been far from a success story -- despite the fact that the company continued to grow its revenue and profit. This reminds me of the performance of Cisco (CSCO) and Microsoft (MSFT) following the bursting of the dot.com bubble -- these companies continued to execute well and grew for many years, but the fact that prices were inflated too much during the bubble still resulted in negative price returns for many years.</p><p><b>Shares Have Gotten Cheaper But Aren&#39;t Cheap</b></p><p>With Tesla trading down almost 60% relative to where shares traded at the beginning of the year, TSLA stock has become a lot cheaper. But that doesn&#39;t mean that Tesla is cheap. Tesla still trades at more than 40x forward net profits, and those estimates could see further downward revisions going forward -- estimates were reduced slightly over the last three months, and more of that could be coming, e.g. due to the negative news from China.</p><p>Many other EV companies are trading at way lower price to sales multiples, which are generally around 2 for NIO (NIO), XPeng, Li Auto (LI), versus a sales multiple of more than 6 for Tesla. BYD, Tesla&#39;s biggest and fastest-growing peer, is trading at just 2x this year&#39;s revenue, too, while growing much faster than Tesla.</p><p>So while Tesla&#39;s downside potential is now more limited than one year ago, it is far from guaranteed that Tesla&#39;s shares will bottom soon. Shares could easily fall further, I believe, especially if earnings estimates start to decline more meaningfully or if other additional negative news emerges.</p><p><b>Takeaway</b></p><p>Buying into stocks that are rising can feel good, but it can also be dangerous. Those that chased Tesla during the COVID bubble have paid a steep price already, as Tesla is down almost 60% so far this year.</p><p>With a wide range of problems, headwinds, and risk factors, Tesla could see its shares decline further, however. Once the bubble has popped, there is no guarantee that a bottom will be reached in a short period of time.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla: The Bubble Is Popping</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla: The Bubble Is Popping\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-25 09:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4560023-tesla-the-bubble-is-popping><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryTesla has seen its shares underperform widely in 2022 so far.The company faces a wide range of issues, including declining prices, slowing demand, and so on.Tesla is still not cheap despite the...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4560023-tesla-the-bubble-is-popping\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4560023-tesla-the-bubble-is-popping","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1102414813","content_text":"SummaryTesla has seen its shares underperform widely in 2022 so far.The company faces a wide range of issues, including declining prices, slowing demand, and so on.Tesla is still not cheap despite the hefty pullback in 2022. Shares could fall further.Article ThesisTesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) is one of the companies that benefitted the most from ultra-low interest rates and that saw its market capitalization expand massively during the pandemic-impacted years 2020 and 2021. Things are changing, however, and Tesla has vastly underperformed the market so far this year. A multitude of issues hurts Tesla's near-term and longer-term outlook, and since shares are not cheap despite the share price drop this year, there is further downside potential.Tesla Is Facing Many IssuesLet's start with something positive: Tesla is a leading EV player that will generate compelling business growth this year and that operates with above-average margins. That's a pretty strong result for a company that has not been around for many decades.That being said, Tesla is facing a range of headwinds in the coming quarters and years, some of them company-specific, while others are driven by an adverse macro environment. Let's take a look at some of the key issues that could be a problem for Tesla going forward:Pricing And Demand Problems In ChinaChina is, by far, the most important country for Tesla, both when it comes to production and when it comes to sales. Tesla's factory in China is its most profitable one, making Tesla's China business integral to the company as a whole. In China, Tesla is seemingly facing considerable headwinds.The company has been lowering prices repeatedly over the last couple of months, and yet, demand has not been as strong as Tesla hoped it would be, some reports suggest. See, for example, the following excerpt from a report from Seeking Alpha:Seeking AlphaIdeally, investors want to invest in companies with pricing power, where customers are buying up products even as prices increase. Think, for example, Apple's (AAPL) ability to sell more and more iPhones despite rising prices. Tesla has lowered the price of its vehicles in China repeatedly, and yet it looks like demand is waning. After all, there's a wide range of reports that show that delivery times of Tesla's vehicles are declining. This, in turn, suggests that Tesla's backlog is shrinking, i.e. fewer new orders are coming in relative to the vehicles Tesla produces.The combination of declining delivery times and declining prices suggests trouble for Tesla in its most important market. Either, the company will have to lower prices further in order to revive demand, which would put even more pressure on margins, or Tesla could face a situation where it cannot fill capacity, as there aren't enough orders once Tesla has worked through its backlog. Both situations suggest that profitability in Tesla's most important market could come under pressure in the coming quarters.Reliance On ChinaThere's also another China-specific risk. Apart from China-based equities, which are oftentimes priced for disaster today, Tesla could be one of the most exposed companies to this macro risk. It relies heavily on China for manufacturing, it relies heavily on China for sales, as China is the largest EV market in the world, and due to China's dominance when it comes to battery production and all kinds of materials, Tesla also relies heavily on China for supplies. It seems possible that investors will increasingly factor this into their investment decisions, which could result in share price headwinds for Tesla.Growing CompetitionAnother risk factor for Tesla is rising competition. It's true that competition has been a bear argument for years, but it increasingly looks like this is now, in fact, becoming a problem. Not only has Tesla lost the advantage in the highly important electric truck business, as its Cybertruck is still not available while competitors Ford (F) and Rivian (RIVN) are successfully selling their electric pickups, but Tesla is also at risk of losing its leadership position in the EV space, overall. BYD (OTCPK: BYDDY)(OTCPK: BYDDF) has emerged as an extremely capable, fast-growing EV player that could sell more EVs next year, even when we do not count plug-in hybrids. In October, BYDsold103,000 pure EVs (220,000 including PHEVs), with a growth rate of 150% year over year. That annualizes at more than 1.2 million, with a growth rate that is way higher than the growth rate Tesla has achieved in the recent past. If these trends continue, BYD will easily become the leader in the global EV space by volume, which could put pressure on Tesla's margins (as BYD could lower market-wide prices thanks to better scale), and which could also result in less interest in Tesla by investors.Add other emerging competitors both on the high end, such as Lucid (LCID), and in the value segment (e.g. XPeng (XPEV)), and the picture could be getting worse for Tesla.Musk's BehaviorElon Musk, Tesla's CEO, is a controversial person. He has many fans, but he also has many critics. And recent things he did could have a negative impact on Tesla's future performance, I believe.First, his actions as the new owner of Twitter did not make everyone happy. Some reacted very negatively to the changes he brought -- it's possible that this will make some people reconsider buying another EV from Tesla. His suggestions for a peace plan in Ukraine also resulted in some negative PR, which could further reduce the number of people willing to buy from his companies. These controversial actions also could result in more scrutiny by regulators.Second, he is now very occupied with Twitter, which will arguably mean that he has less time guiding Tesla. When his time is diverted across many different projects, that could negatively influence the decisions he makes, which could hurt Tesla in the long run.Last but not least, Musk continues to sell parts of his stake in Tesla -- despite the fact that hestated that he was \"almost done selling\" one year ago. Ongoing selling by the most important insider could hurt sentiment further -- that has already been visible in some statements, comments, etc. from investors, and if Musk continues to sell shares, that will likely accelerate.So while Elon Musk surely had a large positive impact on Tesla's performance in the past, Elon Musk's importance as a Tesla insider also poses a risk for investors that shouldn't be neglected.The Macro Environment Is Far From GreatAnother problem for Tesla is that the macro environment in many parts of the world isn't great. Lockdowns in China hurt demand and consumer sentiment, while an energy crisis in Europe and record-high inflation will hurt consumers' ability to buy high-priced vehicles. In the US, inflation remains well above the norm as well, pressuring real disposable income:Data by YChartsWith consumers being under pressure, their ability and willingness to buy high-end vehicles will likely shrink. Add rising interest rates, and financing a new vehicle becomes even less attractive. With many people expecting a recession in the US in 2023, it is likely that Tesla and other automobile companies will feel headwinds from an adverse macro environment.Tesla: A Cheap Money Bubble StockOver the last couple of years, and especially in 2020 and 2021, money was ultra-cheap. With interest rates at a very low level, and with investors being interested in ESG themes, higher-growth story stocks such as Tesla saw their valuations expand massively:Data by YChartsBetween early 2017 and early 2022, Tesla saw its revenue grow by an attractive 670%. Its market capitalization, however, expanded by more than 3,000% -- there clearly was a big disconnect between Tesla's underlying performance and the way the market valued the company. As we can see in the above chart, that was mainly due to the massive share price gains in 2020 and 2021 -- before that, Tesla's revenue had outperformed its market capitalization gains.When seemingly endless sums of money are flowing into a stock despite the fact that the underlying performance is lagging far behind, that poses the risk of creating a bubble. Similar issues were visible in other EV stocks at the time, but Tesla has, by far, been the EV stock with the highest market cap, thus the problem was especially noteworthy here. At the peak, Tesla was trading with a market capitalization north of $1.2 trillion, which was an outrageously high company value not too long ago. Even today, only a small number of companies are trading with a market capitalization this high.So far this year, Tesla has declined by close to 60%, destroying hundreds of billions of dollars in value. Those that bought Tesla early on are still easily in positive territory, but for those that bought over the last two years or so, Tesla has been far from a success story -- despite the fact that the company continued to grow its revenue and profit. This reminds me of the performance of Cisco (CSCO) and Microsoft (MSFT) following the bursting of the dot.com bubble -- these companies continued to execute well and grew for many years, but the fact that prices were inflated too much during the bubble still resulted in negative price returns for many years.Shares Have Gotten Cheaper But Aren't CheapWith Tesla trading down almost 60% relative to where shares traded at the beginning of the year, TSLA stock has become a lot cheaper. But that doesn't mean that Tesla is cheap. Tesla still trades at more than 40x forward net profits, and those estimates could see further downward revisions going forward -- estimates were reduced slightly over the last three months, and more of that could be coming, e.g. due to the negative news from China.Many other EV companies are trading at way lower price to sales multiples, which are generally around 2 for NIO (NIO), XPeng, Li Auto (LI), versus a sales multiple of more than 6 for Tesla. BYD, Tesla's biggest and fastest-growing peer, is trading at just 2x this year's revenue, too, while growing much faster than Tesla.So while Tesla's downside potential is now more limited than one year ago, it is far from guaranteed that Tesla's shares will bottom soon. Shares could easily fall further, I believe, especially if earnings estimates start to decline more meaningfully or if other additional negative news emerges.TakeawayBuying into stocks that are rising can feel good, but it can also be dangerous. Those that chased Tesla during the COVID bubble have paid a steep price already, as Tesla is down almost 60% so far this year.With a wide range of problems, headwinds, and risk factors, Tesla could see its shares decline further, however. Once the bubble has popped, there is no guarantee that a bottom will be reached in a short period of time.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":257,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9966926613,"gmtCreate":1669387985333,"gmtModify":1676538192153,"author":{"id":"4129173637846012","authorId":"4129173637846012","name":"Csd","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c94468b485a22bdb5cf61a9d32169cc0","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9966926613","repostId":"1136499781","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1136499781","pubTimestamp":1669339910,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1136499781?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-11-25 09:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple Isn't Planning to Buy Manchester United","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1136499781","media":"MacRumors","summary":"Apple is not currently planning to purchase Premier League club Manchester United, according to a so","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Apple is not currently planning to purchase Premier League club Manchester United, according to a source familiar with the matter.</p><p>A report earlier today from the British tabloid <i>The Daily Star</i> claimed that Apple had expressed an interest in buying Manchester United for around $7 billion, but our source with direct knowledge of the situation said the report is false.</p><p>Manchester United has been majority owned by the Glazer family since 2005. The club announced on Tuesday that its board planned to &#34;explore strategic alternatives,&#34; including a potential sale of the club. The news came on the same day that Manchester United announced that star player Cristiano Ronaldo would be leaving the club.</p><p>While it has no plans to buy Manchester United, Apple has been pushing into sports content. The company partnered with the MLB to air a weekly &#34;Friday Night Baseball&#34; doubleheader on Apple TV+ during the 2022 regular season, and it will be the exclusive provider of MLS games for the next 10 years. Apple is reportedly also considered a frontrunner for streaming rights to the NFL&#39;s Sunday Ticket package starting next season.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1637734094842","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Isn't Planning to Buy Manchester United</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Isn't Planning to Buy Manchester United\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-25 09:31 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.macrumors.com/2022/11/24/apple-not-planning-to-buy-manchester-united/><strong>MacRumors</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Apple is not currently planning to purchase Premier League club Manchester United, according to a source familiar with the matter.A report earlier today from the British tabloid The Daily Star claimed...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.macrumors.com/2022/11/24/apple-not-planning-to-buy-manchester-united/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MANU":"曼联","AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.macrumors.com/2022/11/24/apple-not-planning-to-buy-manchester-united/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1136499781","content_text":"Apple is not currently planning to purchase Premier League club Manchester United, according to a source familiar with the matter.A report earlier today from the British tabloid The Daily Star claimed that Apple had expressed an interest in buying Manchester United for around $7 billion, but our source with direct knowledge of the situation said the report is false.Manchester United has been majority owned by the Glazer family since 2005. The club announced on Tuesday that its board planned to \"explore strategic alternatives,\" including a potential sale of the club. The news came on the same day that Manchester United announced that star player Cristiano Ronaldo would be leaving the club.While it has no plans to buy Manchester United, Apple has been pushing into sports content. The company partnered with the MLB to air a weekly \"Friday Night Baseball\" doubleheader on Apple TV+ during the 2022 regular season, and it will be the exclusive provider of MLS games for the next 10 years. Apple is reportedly also considered a frontrunner for streaming rights to the NFL's Sunday Ticket package starting next season.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":50,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9968582459,"gmtCreate":1669256287572,"gmtModify":1676538174848,"author":{"id":"4129173637846012","authorId":"4129173637846012","name":"Csd","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c94468b485a22bdb5cf61a9d32169cc0","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9968582459","repostId":"1168042484","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":38,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9968586657,"gmtCreate":1669256080079,"gmtModify":1676538174789,"author":{"id":"4129173637846012","authorId":"4129173637846012","name":"Csd","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c94468b485a22bdb5cf61a9d32169cc0","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanks!","listText":"Thanks!","text":"Thanks!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9968586657","repostId":"1113183258","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1113183258","pubTimestamp":1669210983,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1113183258?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-11-23 21:43","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Amazon Poised to Benefit This Season as Inflation Fears Ease","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1113183258","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"The company spooked investors with slowest-ever holiday quarter growth forecast, but consumers conti","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>The company spooked investors with slowest-ever holiday quarter growth forecast, but consumers continue to spend.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a643c9f5dff7bc0cda7353a97336e3b7\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"667\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Low visibility: High prices, rising interest rates and the war in Ukraine are making seasonal forecasts unusually difficult this year.Photographer: Elijah Nouvelage/Bloomberg</span></p><p>Amazon.com Inc. spooked investors last month when it predicted the slowest holiday season growth in its history. Now there are signs—albeit tentative—that the world’s largest e-commerce company could have a somewhat merrier Christmas than anticipated.</p><p>Inflation has eased in recent weeks and, according to survey results released Sunday by Jefferies Financial Group, US consumers see prices moderating in all categories except rent and groceries. Americans continue to spend despite rising interest rates, with October retail sales increasing the most in eight months. Analysts, meanwhile, expect Amazon to hit the higher end of its fourth-quarter forecast, with revenue growing 6.7% to $146.6 billion, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That’s still a slowdown from last year’s 9.4%growth but hardly a disaster.</p><p>Asked about Amazon’s holiday prospects during an earnings call in October, Chief Financial Officer Brian Olsavsky expressed measured optimism but acknowledged that various headwinds—inflation, rising interest rates, the war in Ukraine—made prognostication  unusually difficult this year. Indeed, two data tracking firms have decidedly different forecasts.Last week, Insider Intelligence said it expected online sales in November and December to rise 12% from a year earlier and faster than last year’s growth of 10.4%.Yet in October, Adobe Inc. predicted an increase of just 2.5%, a marked slowdown from its 8.6% growth tally in 2021.</p><p>The picture will become somewhat clearer following the so-called Cyber Five period that kicks off on Thanksgiving and runs through Black Friday and Cyber Monday. Though Americans have been spreading their holiday shopping over a longer period in recent years, those five days are expected to account forabout a sixth of the season’s buying.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5578603d902de3cc6133e00ec74c14c4\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"666\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>An Amazon delivery truck in San Francisco.Photographer: David Paul Morris/Bloomberg</span></p><p>“We’ll know after Cyber Monday if shoppers are really cutting back or if they’re just waiting for big discounts,” said Dan Brownsher, chief executive officer of Channel Key,an e-commerce consulting firm with 70 clients that generate more than $100 million in combined annual revenue. “Cyber Five is the prime time, when all the deals are running and all the traffic is happening. We just don’t know yet.”</p><p>Despite the layoffs in technology, finance and real estate, most people are working and hungry for bargains, said Andrew Lipsman, an Insider Intelligence analyst. Retailers got away with meager discounts of 10% to 20% last year because consumers were warned about supply-chain issues and eager to buy whatever they could find. This year they’ll see discounts in the range of 30% to 40% since retailers are competing with one another to clear out inventory, he said.</p><p>“We have entered a heavier discounting environment, and consumers are deal-seeking,” Lipsman said. “Consumers are rankled by inflation, but they still have disposable income.”</p><p>For Amazon merchants, who account for more than half of the company’s online sales, much depends on what they sell. Some categories aren’t expected to do especially well this holiday season. Adobe, for one, predicts that online apparel sales will suffer because customers are returning to the stores, where they can see garments and try them on.</p><p>Electronics could be another casualty, in part because many Americans loaded up on televisions, computers and accessories during the pandemic and aren’t ready to upgrade.</p><p>Bernie Thompson, chief technology officer at Plugable in Redmond, Washington, said searches for laptop docking stations and other products were down about 20% so far in November compared with the previous month. This could be the first time his Amazon sales decline since he began selling on the platform in 2009, he said. Thompson is cutting prices and increasing his advertising budget to try to juice sales.</p><p>“We expected to have a whip effect in consumer electronics from scarcity to glut, but it happened a lot faster than anyone thought,” he said. “None of this is disastrous. So far it’s just difficult.”</p><p>Jason Boyce,whose Avenue7Media helps about 100 businesses sell online, said most of his clients carry premium products and haven’t experienced a drop in demand. One of the bestselling products is a mattress topper, sales of which continue to grow despite competing products on Amazon that are priced much lower.</p><p>“Our motto is price high and justify,” he said. “I’m just not seeing the signs of the pending downturn like we do in the news now.”</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Amazon Poised to Benefit This Season as Inflation Fears Ease</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAmazon Poised to Benefit This Season as Inflation Fears Ease\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-23 21:43 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-23/amazon-poised-to-benefit-this-season-as-inflation-fears-ease?srnd=technology-vp><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The company spooked investors with slowest-ever holiday quarter growth forecast, but consumers continue to spend.Low visibility: High prices, rising interest rates and the war in Ukraine are making ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-23/amazon-poised-to-benefit-this-season-as-inflation-fears-ease?srnd=technology-vp\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-23/amazon-poised-to-benefit-this-season-as-inflation-fears-ease?srnd=technology-vp","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1113183258","content_text":"The company spooked investors with slowest-ever holiday quarter growth forecast, but consumers continue to spend.Low visibility: High prices, rising interest rates and the war in Ukraine are making seasonal forecasts unusually difficult this year.Photographer: Elijah Nouvelage/BloombergAmazon.com Inc. spooked investors last month when it predicted the slowest holiday season growth in its history. Now there are signs—albeit tentative—that the world’s largest e-commerce company could have a somewhat merrier Christmas than anticipated.Inflation has eased in recent weeks and, according to survey results released Sunday by Jefferies Financial Group, US consumers see prices moderating in all categories except rent and groceries. Americans continue to spend despite rising interest rates, with October retail sales increasing the most in eight months. Analysts, meanwhile, expect Amazon to hit the higher end of its fourth-quarter forecast, with revenue growing 6.7% to $146.6 billion, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That’s still a slowdown from last year’s 9.4%growth but hardly a disaster.Asked about Amazon’s holiday prospects during an earnings call in October, Chief Financial Officer Brian Olsavsky expressed measured optimism but acknowledged that various headwinds—inflation, rising interest rates, the war in Ukraine—made prognostication  unusually difficult this year. Indeed, two data tracking firms have decidedly different forecasts.Last week, Insider Intelligence said it expected online sales in November and December to rise 12% from a year earlier and faster than last year’s growth of 10.4%.Yet in October, Adobe Inc. predicted an increase of just 2.5%, a marked slowdown from its 8.6% growth tally in 2021.The picture will become somewhat clearer following the so-called Cyber Five period that kicks off on Thanksgiving and runs through Black Friday and Cyber Monday. Though Americans have been spreading their holiday shopping over a longer period in recent years, those five days are expected to account forabout a sixth of the season’s buying.An Amazon delivery truck in San Francisco.Photographer: David Paul Morris/Bloomberg“We’ll know after Cyber Monday if shoppers are really cutting back or if they’re just waiting for big discounts,” said Dan Brownsher, chief executive officer of Channel Key,an e-commerce consulting firm with 70 clients that generate more than $100 million in combined annual revenue. “Cyber Five is the prime time, when all the deals are running and all the traffic is happening. We just don’t know yet.”Despite the layoffs in technology, finance and real estate, most people are working and hungry for bargains, said Andrew Lipsman, an Insider Intelligence analyst. Retailers got away with meager discounts of 10% to 20% last year because consumers were warned about supply-chain issues and eager to buy whatever they could find. This year they’ll see discounts in the range of 30% to 40% since retailers are competing with one another to clear out inventory, he said.“We have entered a heavier discounting environment, and consumers are deal-seeking,” Lipsman said. “Consumers are rankled by inflation, but they still have disposable income.”For Amazon merchants, who account for more than half of the company’s online sales, much depends on what they sell. Some categories aren’t expected to do especially well this holiday season. Adobe, for one, predicts that online apparel sales will suffer because customers are returning to the stores, where they can see garments and try them on.Electronics could be another casualty, in part because many Americans loaded up on televisions, computers and accessories during the pandemic and aren’t ready to upgrade.Bernie Thompson, chief technology officer at Plugable in Redmond, Washington, said searches for laptop docking stations and other products were down about 20% so far in November compared with the previous month. This could be the first time his Amazon sales decline since he began selling on the platform in 2009, he said. Thompson is cutting prices and increasing his advertising budget to try to juice sales.“We expected to have a whip effect in consumer electronics from scarcity to glut, but it happened a lot faster than anyone thought,” he said. “None of this is disastrous. So far it’s just difficult.”Jason Boyce,whose Avenue7Media helps about 100 businesses sell online, said most of his clients carry premium products and haven’t experienced a drop in demand. One of the bestselling products is a mattress topper, sales of which continue to grow despite competing products on Amazon that are priced much lower.“Our motto is price high and justify,” he said. “I’m just not seeing the signs of the pending downturn like we do in the news now.”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":126,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9966647992,"gmtCreate":1669528009617,"gmtModify":1676538205237,"author":{"id":"4129173637846012","authorId":"4129173637846012","name":"Csd","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c94468b485a22bdb5cf61a9d32169cc0","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":19,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9966647992","repostId":"1170146184","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1170146184","pubTimestamp":1669522674,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1170146184?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-11-27 12:17","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Tech Stocks You Can Count on in This Uncertain Market","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1170146184","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"Here are three top-quality tech stocks investors can count on in the long term.Apple(AAPL): Warren B","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul><li>Here are three top-quality tech stocks investors can count on in the long term.</li><li><b>Apple</b>(<b>AAPL</b>): Warren Buffett continues to buy because of its economic moat.</li><li><b>Advanced Micro Devices</b>(<b>AMD</b>): Analysts love this beaten-down tech name.</li><li><b>Nvidia</b>(<b>NVDA</b>): The bad news is already priced into downed stocks like Nvidia.</li></ul><p>2022 was a tough one for tech stocks. Most were walloped with higher interest rates, fears of aggressive rate hikes, geopolitical issues, economic concerns, and fed-up consumers. It chased even the sanest investors from the market. While it’s impossible to find a risk-free investment, some are safer than others – especially if they’re leaders in their sectors, with wide economic moats.</p><p>In fact, one of the best ways to spot strong tech stocks is to follow the Warren Buffett model, which is to invest in simple companies that are easy to understand; companies with predictable and proven earnings; companies that can be bought at a reasonable price; and companies with“economic moat,”or a unique advantage over its competition. Seeing that Warren Buffett is now worth about $108.2 billion, it’s a safe bet he knows a thing or two about safe investing.</p><p><b>Apple (AAPL)</b></p><p>With a diversified revenue stream, and an ability to adapt to new consumer trends, <b>Apple</b> (NASDAQ:<b>AAPL</b>) will always be one of the strong tech stocks to bet on. Even Warren Buffett once said he continues to invest in Apple because of its brand, ecosystem, and strong economic moat.</p><p>In addition, we have to consider that Apple is a global leader in innovation. Just look at the iPhone alone. First introduced to the public in 2007, it’s now one of the most popular mobile phones in the world, with a growing market share. Better, earnings have been solid.</p><p>The company just beat expectations on revenue and profits, and it showed that global demand for its products is still high. In its fourth quarter, the company’s revenue was up 8% to $90 billion. Mac sales were up 25% to $11.5 billion in the quarter. iPhone sales were up 10% to $42.6 billion. Operating income was up by 5% to $25 billion. EPS was up 4% to $1.29, putting it above expectations for $1.27.</p><p>Also, analysts, such as Deutsche Bank’s Sidney Ho, say Apple is trading at a reasonable valuation and has a buy rating with a price target of $175. Apple also carries a dividend yield of 0.66%, and it’s been aggressive with stock buybacks.</p><p><b>Tech Stocks: Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)</b></p><p><b>Advanced Micro Devices</b> (NASDAQ: <b>AMD</b>) was butchered for most of the year. But that’ll happen when most of the tech stock sector is dragging just about everything lower. However, after falling from about $150 to a low of about $60, the AMD stock is showing strong signs of life. With patience, I’d like to see the AMD stock run from its current price of $75.25 to $120 in the near term.</p><p>Analysts like the AMD stock, too. UBS upgraded AMD to a buy rating with a price target of $95 a share. Baird analyst Tristan Gerra also just upgraded the beaten-down tech name to outperform with a price target of $100. He believes the company’s newest Genoa chips could widen the company’s competitive moat. Credit Suisse analyst Chris Caso also initiated coverage of AMD with an outperform rating, with a price target of $90.</p><p>Piper Sandler analyst Harsh Kumar is also overweight on the stock, with a price target of $90. He added that earnings appear to be bottoming and that PC inventory should start to clear out in the early part of 2023. In addition, he believes AMD is a great way to trade the server uptrend and cloud strength.</p><p><b>Tech Stocks: Nvidia (NVDA)</b></p><p>While <b>Nvidia</b> (NASDAQ:<b>NVDA</b>) was cut in half this year, it’s still one quality, safe name investors can count on. For one, the company makes the chips that are used to power some of the world’s most advanced technologies, including gaming, supercomputing, the cloud, artificial intelligence, machine learning, virtual reality, augmented reality, autonomous driving, etc. Again, NVDA was destroyed in 2022. But it’s still a high-quality name to count on.</p><p>Better, it’s also getting a jump on the Industrial Omniverse, which is already being used by major companies, like <b>Lowe’s</b> (NYSE:LOW), <b>BMW</b>(OTCMKTS:BMWYY), <b>Siemens</b>(OTCMKTS:SIEGY), and <b>Lockheed Martin</b> (NYSE:LMT).</p><p>Analysts, like Credit Suisse’s Chris Casso, say there’s been enough bad news for semiconductors to lower the risk of investing. The firm also said Nvidia was one of its top picks thanks to its strength in artificial intelligence, computing, and data centers. Better, the firm now has an outperform rating on the stock, with a $210 price target. Piper Sandler analyst Harsh Kumar also sees a near-term turnaround for Nvidia and has an overweight rating on the stock. For me, from a current price of $160.38, I’d like to see the stock run back to $195 by the first half of the New Year.</p></body></html>","source":"investorplace","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Tech Stocks You Can Count on in This Uncertain Market</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Tech Stocks You Can Count on in This Uncertain Market\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-27 12:17 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://investorplace.com/2022/11/3-tech-stocks-you-can-count-on-in-this-uncertain-market/><strong>InvestorPlace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Here are three top-quality tech stocks investors can count on in the long term.Apple(AAPL): Warren Buffett continues to buy because of its economic moat.Advanced Micro Devices(AMD): Analysts love this...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2022/11/3-tech-stocks-you-can-count-on-in-this-uncertain-market/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果","AMD":"美国超微公司","NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2022/11/3-tech-stocks-you-can-count-on-in-this-uncertain-market/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1170146184","content_text":"Here are three top-quality tech stocks investors can count on in the long term.Apple(AAPL): Warren Buffett continues to buy because of its economic moat.Advanced Micro Devices(AMD): Analysts love this beaten-down tech name.Nvidia(NVDA): The bad news is already priced into downed stocks like Nvidia.2022 was a tough one for tech stocks. Most were walloped with higher interest rates, fears of aggressive rate hikes, geopolitical issues, economic concerns, and fed-up consumers. It chased even the sanest investors from the market. While it’s impossible to find a risk-free investment, some are safer than others – especially if they’re leaders in their sectors, with wide economic moats.In fact, one of the best ways to spot strong tech stocks is to follow the Warren Buffett model, which is to invest in simple companies that are easy to understand; companies with predictable and proven earnings; companies that can be bought at a reasonable price; and companies with“economic moat,”or a unique advantage over its competition. Seeing that Warren Buffett is now worth about $108.2 billion, it’s a safe bet he knows a thing or two about safe investing.Apple (AAPL)With a diversified revenue stream, and an ability to adapt to new consumer trends, Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) will always be one of the strong tech stocks to bet on. Even Warren Buffett once said he continues to invest in Apple because of its brand, ecosystem, and strong economic moat.In addition, we have to consider that Apple is a global leader in innovation. Just look at the iPhone alone. First introduced to the public in 2007, it’s now one of the most popular mobile phones in the world, with a growing market share. Better, earnings have been solid.The company just beat expectations on revenue and profits, and it showed that global demand for its products is still high. In its fourth quarter, the company’s revenue was up 8% to $90 billion. Mac sales were up 25% to $11.5 billion in the quarter. iPhone sales were up 10% to $42.6 billion. Operating income was up by 5% to $25 billion. EPS was up 4% to $1.29, putting it above expectations for $1.27.Also, analysts, such as Deutsche Bank’s Sidney Ho, say Apple is trading at a reasonable valuation and has a buy rating with a price target of $175. Apple also carries a dividend yield of 0.66%, and it’s been aggressive with stock buybacks.Tech Stocks: Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ: AMD) was butchered for most of the year. But that’ll happen when most of the tech stock sector is dragging just about everything lower. However, after falling from about $150 to a low of about $60, the AMD stock is showing strong signs of life. With patience, I’d like to see the AMD stock run from its current price of $75.25 to $120 in the near term.Analysts like the AMD stock, too. UBS upgraded AMD to a buy rating with a price target of $95 a share. Baird analyst Tristan Gerra also just upgraded the beaten-down tech name to outperform with a price target of $100. He believes the company’s newest Genoa chips could widen the company’s competitive moat. Credit Suisse analyst Chris Caso also initiated coverage of AMD with an outperform rating, with a price target of $90.Piper Sandler analyst Harsh Kumar is also overweight on the stock, with a price target of $90. He added that earnings appear to be bottoming and that PC inventory should start to clear out in the early part of 2023. In addition, he believes AMD is a great way to trade the server uptrend and cloud strength.Tech Stocks: Nvidia (NVDA)While Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) was cut in half this year, it’s still one quality, safe name investors can count on. For one, the company makes the chips that are used to power some of the world’s most advanced technologies, including gaming, supercomputing, the cloud, artificial intelligence, machine learning, virtual reality, augmented reality, autonomous driving, etc. Again, NVDA was destroyed in 2022. But it’s still a high-quality name to count on.Better, it’s also getting a jump on the Industrial Omniverse, which is already being used by major companies, like Lowe’s (NYSE:LOW), BMW(OTCMKTS:BMWYY), Siemens(OTCMKTS:SIEGY), and Lockheed Martin (NYSE:LMT).Analysts, like Credit Suisse’s Chris Casso, say there’s been enough bad news for semiconductors to lower the risk of investing. The firm also said Nvidia was one of its top picks thanks to its strength in artificial intelligence, computing, and data centers. Better, the firm now has an outperform rating on the stock, with a $210 price target. Piper Sandler analyst Harsh Kumar also sees a near-term turnaround for Nvidia and has an overweight rating on the stock. For me, from a current price of $160.38, I’d like to see the stock run back to $195 by the first half of the New Year.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":268,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9920711386,"gmtCreate":1670548333746,"gmtModify":1676538390656,"author":{"id":"4129173637846012","authorId":"4129173637846012","name":"Csd","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c94468b485a22bdb5cf61a9d32169cc0","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":11,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9920711386","repostId":"2290422271","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2290422271","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1670536748,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2290422271?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-12-09 05:59","market":"us","language":"en","title":"US STOCKS-S&P 500, Nasdaq Snap Losing Streaks After Jobless Claims Rise","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2290422271","media":"Reuters","summary":"(Reuters) - The S&P 500 ended higher on Thursday, snapping a five-session losing streak, as investor","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>(Reuters) - The S&amp;P 500 ended higher on Thursday, snapping a five-session losing streak, as investors interpreted data showing a rise in weekly jobless claims as a sign the pace of interest rate hikes could soon slow.</p><p>Wall Street&#39;s main indexes had come under pressure in recent days, with the S&amp;P 500 shedding 3.6% since the beginning of December on expectations of a longer rate-hike cycle and downbeat economic views from some top company executives.</p><p>Such thinking had also weighed on the Nasdaq Composite, which had posted four straight losing sessions prior to Thursday&#39;s advance on the tech-heavy index.</p><p>Stocks rose as investors cheered data showing the number of Americans filing claims for jobless benefits increased moderately last week, while unemployment rolls hit a 10-month high toward the end of November.</p><p>The report follows data last Friday that showed U.S. employers hired more workers than expected in November and increased wages, spurring fears that the Fed might stick to its aggressive stance to tame decades-high inflation.</p><p>Markets have been swayed by data releases in recent days, with investors lacking certainty ahead of Federal Reserve guidance next week on interest rates.</p><p>Such behavior means Friday&#39;s producer price index and the University of Michigan&#39;s consumer sentiment survey will likely dictate whether Wall Street can build on Thursday&#39;s rally.</p><p>&#34;The market has to adjust to the fact that we&#39;re moving from a stimulus-based economy - both fiscal and monetary - into a fundamentals-based economy, and that&#39;s what we&#39;re grappling with right now,&#34; said Wiley Angell, chief market strategist at Ziegler Capital Management.</p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 183.56 points, or 0.55%, to close at 33,781.48; the S&amp;P 500 gained 29.59 points, or 0.75%, to finish at 3,963.51; and the Nasdaq Composite added 123.45 points, or 1.13%, at 11,082.00.</p><p>Nine of the 11 major S&amp;P 500 sectors rose, led by a 1.6% gain in technology stocks.</p><p>Most mega-cap technology and growth stocks gained. Apple Inc, Nvidia Corp and Amazon.com Inc rose between 1.2% and 6.5%.</p><p>Microsoft Corp ended 1.2% higher, despite giving up some intraday gains after the Federal Trade Commission filed a complaint aimed at blocking the tech giant&#39;s $69 billion bid to buy Activision Blizzard Inc. The &#34;Call of Duty&#34; games maker closed 1.5% lower.</p><p>The energy index was an exception, slipping 0.5%, despite Exxon Mobil Corp gaining 0.7% after announcing it would expand its $30-billion share repurchase program. The sector had been under pressure in recent sessions as commodity prices slipped: U.S. crude is now hovering near its level at the start of 2022.</p><p>Meanwhile, Moderna Inc advanced 3.2% after the U.S. Food and Drug Administration authorized COVID-19 shots from the vaccine maker that target both the original coronavirus and Omicron sub-variants for use in children as young as six months old.</p><p>The regulator also approved similar guidance for fellow COVID vaccine maker Pfizer Inc, which rose 3.1%, and its partner BioNTech, whose U.S.-listed shares    gained 5.6%.</p><p>Rent the Runway Inc posted its biggest ever one-day gain, jumping 74.3%, after the clothing rental firm raised its 2022 revenue forecast.</p><p>Volume on U.S. exchanges was 10.07 billion shares, compared with the 10.90 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 posted 15 new 52-week highs and three new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 82 new highs and 232 new lows.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>US STOCKS-S&P 500, Nasdaq Snap Losing Streaks After Jobless Claims Rise</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUS STOCKS-S&P 500, Nasdaq Snap Losing Streaks After Jobless Claims Rise\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-12-09 05:59</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>(Reuters) - The S&amp;P 500 ended higher on Thursday, snapping a five-session losing streak, as investors interpreted data showing a rise in weekly jobless claims as a sign the pace of interest rate hikes could soon slow.</p><p>Wall Street&#39;s main indexes had come under pressure in recent days, with the S&amp;P 500 shedding 3.6% since the beginning of December on expectations of a longer rate-hike cycle and downbeat economic views from some top company executives.</p><p>Such thinking had also weighed on the Nasdaq Composite, which had posted four straight losing sessions prior to Thursday&#39;s advance on the tech-heavy index.</p><p>Stocks rose as investors cheered data showing the number of Americans filing claims for jobless benefits increased moderately last week, while unemployment rolls hit a 10-month high toward the end of November.</p><p>The report follows data last Friday that showed U.S. employers hired more workers than expected in November and increased wages, spurring fears that the Fed might stick to its aggressive stance to tame decades-high inflation.</p><p>Markets have been swayed by data releases in recent days, with investors lacking certainty ahead of Federal Reserve guidance next week on interest rates.</p><p>Such behavior means Friday&#39;s producer price index and the University of Michigan&#39;s consumer sentiment survey will likely dictate whether Wall Street can build on Thursday&#39;s rally.</p><p>&#34;The market has to adjust to the fact that we&#39;re moving from a stimulus-based economy - both fiscal and monetary - into a fundamentals-based economy, and that&#39;s what we&#39;re grappling with right now,&#34; said Wiley Angell, chief market strategist at Ziegler Capital Management.</p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 183.56 points, or 0.55%, to close at 33,781.48; the S&amp;P 500 gained 29.59 points, or 0.75%, to finish at 3,963.51; and the Nasdaq Composite added 123.45 points, or 1.13%, at 11,082.00.</p><p>Nine of the 11 major S&amp;P 500 sectors rose, led by a 1.6% gain in technology stocks.</p><p>Most mega-cap technology and growth stocks gained. Apple Inc, Nvidia Corp and Amazon.com Inc rose between 1.2% and 6.5%.</p><p>Microsoft Corp ended 1.2% higher, despite giving up some intraday gains after the Federal Trade Commission filed a complaint aimed at blocking the tech giant&#39;s $69 billion bid to buy Activision Blizzard Inc. The &#34;Call of Duty&#34; games maker closed 1.5% lower.</p><p>The energy index was an exception, slipping 0.5%, despite Exxon Mobil Corp gaining 0.7% after announcing it would expand its $30-billion share repurchase program. The sector had been under pressure in recent sessions as commodity prices slipped: U.S. crude is now hovering near its level at the start of 2022.</p><p>Meanwhile, Moderna Inc advanced 3.2% after the U.S. Food and Drug Administration authorized COVID-19 shots from the vaccine maker that target both the original coronavirus and Omicron sub-variants for use in children as young as six months old.</p><p>The regulator also approved similar guidance for fellow COVID vaccine maker Pfizer Inc, which rose 3.1%, and its partner BioNTech, whose U.S.-listed shares    gained 5.6%.</p><p>Rent the Runway Inc posted its biggest ever one-day gain, jumping 74.3%, after the clothing rental firm raised its 2022 revenue forecast.</p><p>Volume on U.S. exchanges was 10.07 billion shares, compared with the 10.90 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 posted 15 new 52-week highs and three new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 82 new highs and 232 new lows.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2290422271","content_text":"(Reuters) - The S&P 500 ended higher on Thursday, snapping a five-session losing streak, as investors interpreted data showing a rise in weekly jobless claims as a sign the pace of interest rate hikes could soon slow.Wall Street's main indexes had come under pressure in recent days, with the S&P 500 shedding 3.6% since the beginning of December on expectations of a longer rate-hike cycle and downbeat economic views from some top company executives.Such thinking had also weighed on the Nasdaq Composite, which had posted four straight losing sessions prior to Thursday's advance on the tech-heavy index.Stocks rose as investors cheered data showing the number of Americans filing claims for jobless benefits increased moderately last week, while unemployment rolls hit a 10-month high toward the end of November.The report follows data last Friday that showed U.S. employers hired more workers than expected in November and increased wages, spurring fears that the Fed might stick to its aggressive stance to tame decades-high inflation.Markets have been swayed by data releases in recent days, with investors lacking certainty ahead of Federal Reserve guidance next week on interest rates.Such behavior means Friday's producer price index and the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment survey will likely dictate whether Wall Street can build on Thursday's rally.\"The market has to adjust to the fact that we're moving from a stimulus-based economy - both fiscal and monetary - into a fundamentals-based economy, and that's what we're grappling with right now,\" said Wiley Angell, chief market strategist at Ziegler Capital Management.The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 183.56 points, or 0.55%, to close at 33,781.48; the S&P 500 gained 29.59 points, or 0.75%, to finish at 3,963.51; and the Nasdaq Composite added 123.45 points, or 1.13%, at 11,082.00.Nine of the 11 major S&P 500 sectors rose, led by a 1.6% gain in technology stocks.Most mega-cap technology and growth stocks gained. Apple Inc, Nvidia Corp and Amazon.com Inc rose between 1.2% and 6.5%.Microsoft Corp ended 1.2% higher, despite giving up some intraday gains after the Federal Trade Commission filed a complaint aimed at blocking the tech giant's $69 billion bid to buy Activision Blizzard Inc. The \"Call of Duty\" games maker closed 1.5% lower.The energy index was an exception, slipping 0.5%, despite Exxon Mobil Corp gaining 0.7% after announcing it would expand its $30-billion share repurchase program. The sector had been under pressure in recent sessions as commodity prices slipped: U.S. crude is now hovering near its level at the start of 2022.Meanwhile, Moderna Inc advanced 3.2% after the U.S. Food and Drug Administration authorized COVID-19 shots from the vaccine maker that target both the original coronavirus and Omicron sub-variants for use in children as young as six months old.The regulator also approved similar guidance for fellow COVID vaccine maker Pfizer Inc, which rose 3.1%, and its partner BioNTech, whose U.S.-listed shares    gained 5.6%.Rent the Runway Inc posted its biggest ever one-day gain, jumping 74.3%, after the clothing rental firm raised its 2022 revenue forecast.Volume on U.S. exchanges was 10.07 billion shares, compared with the 10.90 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.The S&P 500 posted 15 new 52-week highs and three new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 82 new highs and 232 new lows.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":468,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9962789124,"gmtCreate":1669849498368,"gmtModify":1676538254418,"author":{"id":"4129173637846012","authorId":"4129173637846012","name":"Csd","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c94468b485a22bdb5cf61a9d32169cc0","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9962789124","repostId":"1176439361","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1176439361","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1669822019,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1176439361?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-11-30 23:26","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Hot Chinese ADRs Continued to Fly Higher in Morning Trading","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1176439361","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Hot Chinese ADRs climbed for a third day, adding to a record rally this month.Alibaba jumped over 10","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Hot Chinese ADRs climbed for a third day, adding to a record rally this month.</p><p>Alibaba jumped over 10%; XPeng surged nearly 40%; Nio rose over 24%; Baidu rose more than 8%.</p><p>The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index gained 6% Wednesday, putting the benchmark on pace for a 37% surge this month.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0fb2dd381f469c7fdce955b73ed65036\" tg-width=\"483\" tg-height=\"766\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Hot Chinese ADRs Continued to Fly Higher in Morning Trading</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHot Chinese ADRs Continued to Fly Higher in Morning Trading\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-11-30 23:26</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Hot Chinese ADRs climbed for a third day, adding to a record rally this month.</p><p>Alibaba jumped over 10%; XPeng surged nearly 40%; Nio rose over 24%; Baidu rose more than 8%.</p><p>The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index gained 6% Wednesday, putting the benchmark on pace for a 37% surge this month.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0fb2dd381f469c7fdce955b73ed65036\" tg-width=\"483\" tg-height=\"766\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","XPEV":"小鹏汽车"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1176439361","content_text":"Hot Chinese ADRs climbed for a third day, adding to a record rally this month.Alibaba jumped over 10%; XPeng surged nearly 40%; Nio rose over 24%; Baidu rose more than 8%.The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index gained 6% Wednesday, putting the benchmark on pace for a 37% surge this month.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":421,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9962320965,"gmtCreate":1669725821057,"gmtModify":1676538229934,"author":{"id":"4129173637846012","authorId":"4129173637846012","name":"Csd","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c94468b485a22bdb5cf61a9d32169cc0","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9962320965","repostId":"1173876241","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1173876241","pubTimestamp":1669735462,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1173876241?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-11-29 23:24","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Alibaba: Candidate For The Record Book Of Mispriced Stocks","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1173876241","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryWhile top line growth is now close to zero, Alibaba could increase operating income, earnings","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Summary</p><ul><li>While top line growth is now close to zero, Alibaba could increase operating income, earnings per share, and free cash flow at a high pace.</li><li>Despite different risks continuing to exist for Alibaba, the growth potential for the different business segments remains high.</li><li>Alibaba is focusing on share buybacks, which is a good move considering its deeply undervalued share price.</li></ul><p>I must be honest. So far, my investment in as well as my articles about Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE:BABA) have been nothing but a catastrophe. Since my last article, the stock price declined 31% and since the article in January 2022, the stock declined 37%. I built my position in Alibaba over time but so far, I didn’t make any money. I also must admit that I did not expect Alibaba to decline so steeply. At least when getting close to $100, I assumed we hit the bottom and could not imagine Alibaba declining lower.</p><p>However, my long-term investment thesis did not change. I am still long-term bullish about Alibaba and in my opinion the market is completely mispricing the stock and just focusing on the risks while completely ignoring the cash generating business and existing growth potential.</p><h3>Quarterly Results</h3><p>About two weeks ago, Alibaba reported second quarter results for fiscal 2022. And while it missed on revenue expectations by $490 million, it could beat earnings per ADS by $0.17. When looking at the quarterly results, I will report the numbers in Renminbi.</p><p>Although growth slowed down, Alibaba could still increase revenue from RMB 200,690 million in the same quarter last year to RMB 207,176 million this quarter resulting in 3.2% year-over-year growth. Adjusted EBITDA increased from RMB 34,840 million in Q2/21 to RMB 43,311 million in Q2/22 – resulting in 24.3% year-over-year growth. And finally, diluted earnings per share almost quadrupled from RMB 0.25 in the same quarter last year to RMB 0.97 this quarter. When looking at non-GAAP diluted earnings per share, we saw an increase of 15% YoY from RMB 1.40 in the same quarter last year to RMB 1.61 this quarter. And finally, free cash flow increased from RMB 22,239 million in Q2/21 to RMB 35,709 million in Q2/22 – resulting in 60.6% year-over-year growth.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78baaf1cc15acbf0419b0de8a14fb12b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"359\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>When looking at the different segments, the biggest part of revenue is still stemming from China commerce, which generated RMB 135,431 million in revenue (a decline of 1% year-over-year). This segment is responsible for the biggest part of adjusted EBITDA (RMB 43,980 million). International Commerce could generate RMB 15,747 million in revenue, resulting in 4% YoY growth and Local Consumer Services generated revenue of RMB 13,073 million resulting in 21% YoY growth. However, both segments are still not profitable and generated negative EBITDA. Cloud could generate RMB 20,757 million in revenue (increasing 4% year-over-year growth) and adjusted EBITDA was RMB 434 million. Cainiao could generate revenue of RMB 13,367 million resulting in 36% year-over-year growth and after reporting a loss of in the same quarter last year the segment reported an adjusted EBITDA of RMB 125 million. And finally, Digital media and entertainment could generate RMB 8,392 million in revenue (resulting in 4% YoY growth). However, the segment was also not profitable.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e016228f4be40a684f90dd4cc0d784a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"361\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Additionally, growth from its 11.11 Global Shopping Event slowed down as well and Alibaba could only report results in line with last year’s gross merchandise volume performance. During the last earnings call, Alibaba also commented on the last Singles Day:</p><p>During our recent 11.11 Global Shopping Festival, Taobao and Tmall&#39;s total GMV was in line with the performance last year during the same period. Initial fruits of the operation strategies outlined just now were seen during November 11. More than 600 million users engaged with our November 11 related contents, a single-digit growth year-on-year. Although, the total number of buyers declined compared to the same period last year, the average GMV per person increased.</p><p>Management also mentioned three factors which had a negative impact on the results. First, the warmer than usual temperature in China probably led to fewer people shopping online. Second, about 15% of delivery areas across China experienced abnormal or suspended logistic services, which had a negative effect. And finally, other merchants were also pushing hard on 11.11 and probably took away some market share from Alibaba.</p><h3>Headwinds</h3><p>While Alibaba is talking about a solid quarter, they are also acknowledging the difficulties for Alibaba during the last earnings call:</p><p>We delivered a solid quarter in a macro environment full of uncertainty. The ongoing resurgence of COVID-19, geopolitical tension, inflation, and currency depreciation, the convergence of all these forces that created considerable difficulties for business operations.</p><p>And one of the major problems in China is still COVID-19. Right now, numbers are increasing dramatically again – and we must assume this will have a negative impact on Alibaba in the current quarter as it creates huge challenges for logistics.</p><h3><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5809b3db2fbbe959366e7e5747713f2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"451\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Long-Term Growth</h3><p>Growth for Alibaba is clearly slowing down right now - as it does for almost every technology company around the world. As we must assume the low growth rates (or even declining numbers) will last for several quarters (maybe even a few years) this is a temporary headwind due to the economy slowing down and the looming recession. Nevertheless, I remain confident that the long-term outlook should be bullish, and Alibaba’s management is also optimistic about the growth potential of the different business sectors.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8dbac2dcf4e4f48e3d631c3a9120bab3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"297\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>The highest growth rates might be achieved by the cloud business, where Alibaba is clear market leader in China. In 2021, Alibaba had a market share of 37% ahead of competitors Huawei – which has a market share of 18% - and Tencent (OTCPK:TCEHY) – which has a market share of 17%. And while I don’t think Alibaba will be able to gain market shares (as other, strong competitors are moving in the space), the public cloud market is expected to triple in the coming years – and Alibaba can achieve high growth rates by just keeping its market share stable. In a study about the Chinese cloud market, McKinsey writes:</p><p>To date, China’s cloud adoption has been led largely by consumer-facing companies, which need elastic, on-demand access to unlimited computing power to help them respond to huge fluctuations in customer demand. During China’s Singles’ Day shopping festival, for instance, e-commerce traffic, transactions, and gross merchandise volumes can reach up to 30 times normal daily levels. (…) Consumer-driven growth will remain an important driver of cloud adoption, but we believe the next wave of migration could be spearheaded by China’s critical industrial and manufacturing sectors.</p><p>But not only the cloud business of Alibaba can grow at a high pace. Its China commerce business, which is generating most of Alibaba’s revenue and responsible for its profitability, also has growth potential going forward – despite the declining Chinese population. While the population is declining, the share of Chinese population living in poverty is also declining. And I am already using the definitions of poverty adopted in upper-middle-income countries. In 2019, about 25% of population still lived in poverty in China (in urban areas only 16%). And with that percentage continuing to go down, the number of potential shoppers for Alibaba will increase.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/baff5be28b9b9bfc4dfdd1e92c109996\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"451\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>In my last article about JD.com, Inc., I already mentioned that Chinese consumers are expected to shop more online in the years to come. According to an Accenture study about Chinese consumer insights, most people will either keep their personal frequency of online shopping unchanged (49%) or increase the frequency of online shopping (44%).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92ae88cd63f9723d8ed8ec370eebccf7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"361\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>And the same study is also showing that the per capita disposable income of urban residents is continuously increasing during the last decade. And even when per capita consumption expenditures declined slightly in 2020 (due to COVID-19), this number is also increasing with a steady pace.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f02c27b7c2c4f411e620779d9dfe359\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"507\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>International Commerce is also expected to grow with a high pace. Alibaba is focusing on the South Asia e-commerce market, which is expected to grow with a high pace. The market size will increase with a CAGR of 27% between 2020 and 2025 to $260 billion (according to Alibaba’s Investor Day 2021 presentation). And Lazada is not only well-positioned, but it also continued to improve monetization rate and was also enhancing operating efficiency. Additionally, during the last quarter, loss per order for Lazada narrowed by 25% compared to the same quarter last year. And the International commerce segment is close to being profitable.</p><p>And finally, we should not forget the economic moat Alibaba has built around its business. During the last earnings call, management made the following statement:</p><p>After many years of operation, Taobao, Tmall is now deeply entrenched in our users&#39; mind as the shopping destination. We are focused on user engagement on our platform by enhancing the customer journey across search, algorithm-driven discovery recommendations, live streaming and other engagement features (…)</p><p>Number two, we further consolidate the scale and the stickiness of our most valuable consumer group. For the 12 months ended December 30, 2022, the number of consumers who each spent over RMB 10,000 on top on Taobao and Tmall remain around 124 million with a retention rate of 98%. 88VIP membership population held steady at 25 million this quarter, with solid membership retention and growth in GMV contribution.</p><p>Number three, we improved consumer satisfaction by continually investing in customer service during and after services and the logistics service experiences, such as doorstep delivery of orders as required.</p><p>Alibaba clearly has a wide economic moat based on cost advantages – the company is one of the major e-commerce players in China and the cost advantages are hard to match by smaller competitors. Aside from cost advantages, Alibaba is also profiting from its brand name(s) and for its cloud business switching costs come into play. After choosing a cloud service it usually costs time and money (which businesses are not willing to spend) to move to a competitor – and this is creating a stickiness in favor of Alibaba.</p><h3>Share Repurchases</h3><p>In the last few quarters, Alibaba increased its share repurchase program, which was certainly a good move by Alibaba considering the steeply declining share price. Since June 2021 (15 months ago), the number of outstanding shares was decreased from 2,755 million to 2,646 million right now – resulting in a decline of 4%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0af5c02ed6507d0f66fc07aaed807035\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"435\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>And it is good that Alibaba is buying back shares and the remaining $7 billion share repurchase program was extended by another $15 billion. But in my opinion, they should be more aggressive and use the cash reserves for share buybacks – at least in parts. On September 30, 2022, the company had RMB 206.7 billion in cash and cash equivalents as well as RMB 270.2 billion in short-term investments. At current share prices, the company could repurchase 32% of its outstanding shares and Alibaba should certainly not use all its liquid resources for share buybacks. But using cash to repurchase about 10% of outstanding shares would be a smart move in my opinion. Additionally, Alibaba is generating enough free cash flow annually to repurchase more than 10% of the outstanding shares (of course this will change with a higher share price).</p><h3>Intrinsic Value Calculation</h3><p>In every single one of my articles, I basically argued that Alibaba is undervalued. And I will stick to my guns – the company is undervalued and remains undervalued. Even when calculating with extremely cautious assumptions, Alibaba is clearly trading below its intrinsic value.</p><p>In the last two quarters, Alibaba generated a free cash flow of $8,137 million and in the last annual results the company reported a free cash flow of $15,597 million. As basis for our calculation, we therefore assume a free cash flow of $16 billion. And for the years to come, we assume 6% growth till perpetuity which leads to an intrinsic value of $151.23 for Alibaba.</p><p>And – like I said above – theses assumptions are extremely cautious. Not only did Alibaba report already much higher free cash flow numbers in the past (as high as $26 billion), it also reported much higher growth rates in the past. And for the years to come there are several growth drivers: First, Alibaba will be able to grow its top line again (see section above). Second, despite constantly declining margins in the past, the business will at some point be able to reduce the current high spendings on expansions and be more profitable again. And finally, Alibaba can use share buybacks (especially right now) and spend its cash on the balance sheet as well as the generated free cash flow to repurchase shares. This by itself is enough to lead to 6% growth right now.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66d4ee3047c7afdae4d9e6591ea506f8\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>And finally, we should not forget, that Alibaba is trading for a P/FCF ratio of 8.7 right now – although free cash flow declined almost 50% compared to previous levels. These are absurd valuation levels for a business as Alibaba – despite risks surrounding the business.</p><h3>Conclusion</h3><p>I know I have been wrong about Alibaba in the last few quarters. But first of all, the horrible stock performance of the last few quarters does not mean my thesis – which is based on the fundamentals of the business – is wrong. And second, investing is a marathon and not a sprint. I remain extremely bullish about Alibaba.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba: Candidate For The Record Book Of Mispriced Stocks</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba: Candidate For The Record Book Of Mispriced Stocks\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-29 23:24 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4561046-alibaba-candidate-for-the-record-book-of-mispriced-stocks><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryWhile top line growth is now close to zero, Alibaba could increase operating income, earnings per share, and free cash flow at a high pace.Despite different risks continuing to exist for ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4561046-alibaba-candidate-for-the-record-book-of-mispriced-stocks\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","09988":"阿里巴巴-SW"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4561046-alibaba-candidate-for-the-record-book-of-mispriced-stocks","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1173876241","content_text":"SummaryWhile top line growth is now close to zero, Alibaba could increase operating income, earnings per share, and free cash flow at a high pace.Despite different risks continuing to exist for Alibaba, the growth potential for the different business segments remains high.Alibaba is focusing on share buybacks, which is a good move considering its deeply undervalued share price.I must be honest. So far, my investment in as well as my articles about Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE:BABA) have been nothing but a catastrophe. Since my last article, the stock price declined 31% and since the article in January 2022, the stock declined 37%. I built my position in Alibaba over time but so far, I didn’t make any money. I also must admit that I did not expect Alibaba to decline so steeply. At least when getting close to $100, I assumed we hit the bottom and could not imagine Alibaba declining lower.However, my long-term investment thesis did not change. I am still long-term bullish about Alibaba and in my opinion the market is completely mispricing the stock and just focusing on the risks while completely ignoring the cash generating business and existing growth potential.Quarterly ResultsAbout two weeks ago, Alibaba reported second quarter results for fiscal 2022. And while it missed on revenue expectations by $490 million, it could beat earnings per ADS by $0.17. When looking at the quarterly results, I will report the numbers in Renminbi.Although growth slowed down, Alibaba could still increase revenue from RMB 200,690 million in the same quarter last year to RMB 207,176 million this quarter resulting in 3.2% year-over-year growth. Adjusted EBITDA increased from RMB 34,840 million in Q2/21 to RMB 43,311 million in Q2/22 – resulting in 24.3% year-over-year growth. And finally, diluted earnings per share almost quadrupled from RMB 0.25 in the same quarter last year to RMB 0.97 this quarter. When looking at non-GAAP diluted earnings per share, we saw an increase of 15% YoY from RMB 1.40 in the same quarter last year to RMB 1.61 this quarter. And finally, free cash flow increased from RMB 22,239 million in Q2/21 to RMB 35,709 million in Q2/22 – resulting in 60.6% year-over-year growth.When looking at the different segments, the biggest part of revenue is still stemming from China commerce, which generated RMB 135,431 million in revenue (a decline of 1% year-over-year). This segment is responsible for the biggest part of adjusted EBITDA (RMB 43,980 million). International Commerce could generate RMB 15,747 million in revenue, resulting in 4% YoY growth and Local Consumer Services generated revenue of RMB 13,073 million resulting in 21% YoY growth. However, both segments are still not profitable and generated negative EBITDA. Cloud could generate RMB 20,757 million in revenue (increasing 4% year-over-year growth) and adjusted EBITDA was RMB 434 million. Cainiao could generate revenue of RMB 13,367 million resulting in 36% year-over-year growth and after reporting a loss of in the same quarter last year the segment reported an adjusted EBITDA of RMB 125 million. And finally, Digital media and entertainment could generate RMB 8,392 million in revenue (resulting in 4% YoY growth). However, the segment was also not profitable.Additionally, growth from its 11.11 Global Shopping Event slowed down as well and Alibaba could only report results in line with last year’s gross merchandise volume performance. During the last earnings call, Alibaba also commented on the last Singles Day:During our recent 11.11 Global Shopping Festival, Taobao and Tmall's total GMV was in line with the performance last year during the same period. Initial fruits of the operation strategies outlined just now were seen during November 11. More than 600 million users engaged with our November 11 related contents, a single-digit growth year-on-year. Although, the total number of buyers declined compared to the same period last year, the average GMV per person increased.Management also mentioned three factors which had a negative impact on the results. First, the warmer than usual temperature in China probably led to fewer people shopping online. Second, about 15% of delivery areas across China experienced abnormal or suspended logistic services, which had a negative effect. And finally, other merchants were also pushing hard on 11.11 and probably took away some market share from Alibaba.HeadwindsWhile Alibaba is talking about a solid quarter, they are also acknowledging the difficulties for Alibaba during the last earnings call:We delivered a solid quarter in a macro environment full of uncertainty. The ongoing resurgence of COVID-19, geopolitical tension, inflation, and currency depreciation, the convergence of all these forces that created considerable difficulties for business operations.And one of the major problems in China is still COVID-19. Right now, numbers are increasing dramatically again – and we must assume this will have a negative impact on Alibaba in the current quarter as it creates huge challenges for logistics.Long-Term GrowthGrowth for Alibaba is clearly slowing down right now - as it does for almost every technology company around the world. As we must assume the low growth rates (or even declining numbers) will last for several quarters (maybe even a few years) this is a temporary headwind due to the economy slowing down and the looming recession. Nevertheless, I remain confident that the long-term outlook should be bullish, and Alibaba’s management is also optimistic about the growth potential of the different business sectors.The highest growth rates might be achieved by the cloud business, where Alibaba is clear market leader in China. In 2021, Alibaba had a market share of 37% ahead of competitors Huawei – which has a market share of 18% - and Tencent (OTCPK:TCEHY) – which has a market share of 17%. And while I don’t think Alibaba will be able to gain market shares (as other, strong competitors are moving in the space), the public cloud market is expected to triple in the coming years – and Alibaba can achieve high growth rates by just keeping its market share stable. In a study about the Chinese cloud market, McKinsey writes:To date, China’s cloud adoption has been led largely by consumer-facing companies, which need elastic, on-demand access to unlimited computing power to help them respond to huge fluctuations in customer demand. During China’s Singles’ Day shopping festival, for instance, e-commerce traffic, transactions, and gross merchandise volumes can reach up to 30 times normal daily levels. (…) Consumer-driven growth will remain an important driver of cloud adoption, but we believe the next wave of migration could be spearheaded by China’s critical industrial and manufacturing sectors.But not only the cloud business of Alibaba can grow at a high pace. Its China commerce business, which is generating most of Alibaba’s revenue and responsible for its profitability, also has growth potential going forward – despite the declining Chinese population. While the population is declining, the share of Chinese population living in poverty is also declining. And I am already using the definitions of poverty adopted in upper-middle-income countries. In 2019, about 25% of population still lived in poverty in China (in urban areas only 16%). And with that percentage continuing to go down, the number of potential shoppers for Alibaba will increase.In my last article about JD.com, Inc., I already mentioned that Chinese consumers are expected to shop more online in the years to come. According to an Accenture study about Chinese consumer insights, most people will either keep their personal frequency of online shopping unchanged (49%) or increase the frequency of online shopping (44%).And the same study is also showing that the per capita disposable income of urban residents is continuously increasing during the last decade. And even when per capita consumption expenditures declined slightly in 2020 (due to COVID-19), this number is also increasing with a steady pace.International Commerce is also expected to grow with a high pace. Alibaba is focusing on the South Asia e-commerce market, which is expected to grow with a high pace. The market size will increase with a CAGR of 27% between 2020 and 2025 to $260 billion (according to Alibaba’s Investor Day 2021 presentation). And Lazada is not only well-positioned, but it also continued to improve monetization rate and was also enhancing operating efficiency. Additionally, during the last quarter, loss per order for Lazada narrowed by 25% compared to the same quarter last year. And the International commerce segment is close to being profitable.And finally, we should not forget the economic moat Alibaba has built around its business. During the last earnings call, management made the following statement:After many years of operation, Taobao, Tmall is now deeply entrenched in our users' mind as the shopping destination. We are focused on user engagement on our platform by enhancing the customer journey across search, algorithm-driven discovery recommendations, live streaming and other engagement features (…)Number two, we further consolidate the scale and the stickiness of our most valuable consumer group. For the 12 months ended December 30, 2022, the number of consumers who each spent over RMB 10,000 on top on Taobao and Tmall remain around 124 million with a retention rate of 98%. 88VIP membership population held steady at 25 million this quarter, with solid membership retention and growth in GMV contribution.Number three, we improved consumer satisfaction by continually investing in customer service during and after services and the logistics service experiences, such as doorstep delivery of orders as required.Alibaba clearly has a wide economic moat based on cost advantages – the company is one of the major e-commerce players in China and the cost advantages are hard to match by smaller competitors. Aside from cost advantages, Alibaba is also profiting from its brand name(s) and for its cloud business switching costs come into play. After choosing a cloud service it usually costs time and money (which businesses are not willing to spend) to move to a competitor – and this is creating a stickiness in favor of Alibaba.Share RepurchasesIn the last few quarters, Alibaba increased its share repurchase program, which was certainly a good move by Alibaba considering the steeply declining share price. Since June 2021 (15 months ago), the number of outstanding shares was decreased from 2,755 million to 2,646 million right now – resulting in a decline of 4%.And it is good that Alibaba is buying back shares and the remaining $7 billion share repurchase program was extended by another $15 billion. But in my opinion, they should be more aggressive and use the cash reserves for share buybacks – at least in parts. On September 30, 2022, the company had RMB 206.7 billion in cash and cash equivalents as well as RMB 270.2 billion in short-term investments. At current share prices, the company could repurchase 32% of its outstanding shares and Alibaba should certainly not use all its liquid resources for share buybacks. But using cash to repurchase about 10% of outstanding shares would be a smart move in my opinion. Additionally, Alibaba is generating enough free cash flow annually to repurchase more than 10% of the outstanding shares (of course this will change with a higher share price).Intrinsic Value CalculationIn every single one of my articles, I basically argued that Alibaba is undervalued. And I will stick to my guns – the company is undervalued and remains undervalued. Even when calculating with extremely cautious assumptions, Alibaba is clearly trading below its intrinsic value.In the last two quarters, Alibaba generated a free cash flow of $8,137 million and in the last annual results the company reported a free cash flow of $15,597 million. As basis for our calculation, we therefore assume a free cash flow of $16 billion. And for the years to come, we assume 6% growth till perpetuity which leads to an intrinsic value of $151.23 for Alibaba.And – like I said above – theses assumptions are extremely cautious. Not only did Alibaba report already much higher free cash flow numbers in the past (as high as $26 billion), it also reported much higher growth rates in the past. And for the years to come there are several growth drivers: First, Alibaba will be able to grow its top line again (see section above). Second, despite constantly declining margins in the past, the business will at some point be able to reduce the current high spendings on expansions and be more profitable again. And finally, Alibaba can use share buybacks (especially right now) and spend its cash on the balance sheet as well as the generated free cash flow to repurchase shares. This by itself is enough to lead to 6% growth right now.And finally, we should not forget, that Alibaba is trading for a P/FCF ratio of 8.7 right now – although free cash flow declined almost 50% compared to previous levels. These are absurd valuation levels for a business as Alibaba – despite risks surrounding the business.ConclusionI know I have been wrong about Alibaba in the last few quarters. But first of all, the horrible stock performance of the last few quarters does not mean my thesis – which is based on the fundamentals of the business – is wrong. And second, investing is a marathon and not a sprint. I remain extremely bullish about Alibaba.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":411,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9964336398,"gmtCreate":1670075245714,"gmtModify":1676538298784,"author":{"id":"4129173637846012","authorId":"4129173637846012","name":"Csd","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c94468b485a22bdb5cf61a9d32169cc0","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9964336398","repostId":"1152464265","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1152464265","pubTimestamp":1670022054,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1152464265?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-12-03 07:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"11 Hours With Sam Bankman-Fried: Inside the Bahamian Penthouse After FTX’s Fall","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1152464265","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"Sam Bankman-Fried’s $30 million Bahamas penthouse looks like a dorm after the students have left for winter break. The dishwasher is full. Towels are piled in the laundry room. Bat streamers from a Ha","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb8b5a354d9d687bd95cdff74dddc508\" tg-width=\"1214\" tg-height=\"811\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Sam Bankman-Fried’s $30 million Bahamas penthouse looks like a dorm after the students have left for winter break. The dishwasher is full. Towels are piled in the laundry room. Bat streamers from a Halloween party are still hanging from a doorway. Two boxes of Legos sit on the floor of one bedroom. And then there are the shoes—dozens of sneakers and heels piled in the foyer, left behind by employees who fled the island of New Providence last month when his cryptocurrency exchangeFTX imploded.</p><p>“It’s been an interesting few weeks,” Bankman-Fried says in a chipper tone as he greets me. It’s a muggy Saturday afternoon, eight days after FTX filed for bankruptcy. He’s shoeless, in white gym socks, a red T-shirt and wrinkled khaki shorts. His standard uniform.</p><p>This isn’t part of the typical tour Bankman-Fried gave to the many reporters who came to tell the tale of the boy-genius-crypto-billionaire who slept on a beanbag chair next to his desk and only got rich so he could give it all away, and it’s easy to see why. The apartment is at the top of one of the luxury condo buildings that border a marina in a gated community called Albany. Outside, deckhands buff the stanchions of a 200-foot yacht owned by a fracking billionaire. A bronze replica of Wall Street’s<i>Charging Bull</i>statue stands on the lawn, which is as manicured as the residents. I feel like I’ve crash-landed on an alien planet populated solely by the very rich and the people who work for them.</p><p>Bankman-Fried leads me down a marble-floored hallway to a small bedroom, where he perches on a plush brown couch. Always known for being jittery, he taps his foot so hard it rattles a coffee table, smacks gum and rubs his index finger with his thumb like he’s twirling an invisible fidget spinner. But he seems almost cheerful as he explains why he’s invited me into his 12,000-square-foot bolthole, against the advice of his lawyers, even as investigators from theUS Department of Justice probewhether he used customers’ funds to prop up his hedge fund, a crime that could send him to prison for years. (Spoiler alert: It sure looks like he did.)</p><p>“What I’m focusing on is what I can do, right now, to try and make things as right as possible,” Bankman-Fried says. “I can’t do that if I’m just focused on covering my ass.”</p><p>But he seems to be doing just that, with me here and all along the apology tour he’ll later embark on, which will include a video appearance at a<i>New York Times</i>conference and an interview on<i>Good Morning America</i>. He’s been trying to blame his firm’s failure on a hazy combination of comically poor bookkeeping, wildly misjudged risks and complete ignorance of what his hedge fund was doing. In other words, an alumnus of both MIT and the elite Wall Street trading firmJane Streetis arguing that he was just dumb with the numbers—not pulling a conscious fraud. Talking in detail to journalists about what’s certain to be the subject of extensive litigation seems like an unusual strategy, but it makes sense: The press helped him create his only-honest-man-in-crypto image, so why not use them to talk his way out of trouble?</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79b2ba9ef6da8454146f200cdc460f6e\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"666\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Bankman-Fried after an interview on<i>Bloomberg Wealth With David Rubenstein</i>on Aug. 17, 2022.Photographer: Jeenah Moon/Bloomberg</p><p>He doesn’t say so, but one reason he might be willing to speak with me is that I’m one of the reporters who helped build him up. After spending two days at FTX’s offices in February, I flew past the brightred flagsat his company—its lack of corporate governance, the ties to his Alameda Research hedge fund, its profligate spending on marketing, the fact that it operated largely outside US jurisdiction. Iwrote a storyfocused on whether Bankman-Fried would follow through on his plans to donate huge sums to charity and his connections to an unusual philanthropic movement calledeffective altruism.</p><p>It wasn’t the most embarrassingly puffy of the many puff pieces that came out about him. (“After my interview with SBF, I was convinced: I was talking to a future trillionaire,” one writer said in an article commissioned by a venture capital firm.) But my tone wasn’t entirely dissimilar. “Bankman-Fried is a thought experiment from a college philosophy seminar come to life,” I wrote. “Should someone who wants to save the world first amass as much money and power as possible, or will the pursuit corrupt him along the way?” Now it seems pretty clear that a better question would’ve been whether the business was ascam from the start.</p><p>I tell Bankman-Fried I want to talk about the decisions that led to FTX’s collapse, and why he took them. Earlier in the week, inlate-night DM exchangeswith a<i>Vox</i>reporter and on a phone call with a YouTuber, he made comments that many interpreted as an admission that everything he said was a lie. (“So the ethics stuff, mostly a front?” the<i>Vox</i>reporter asked. “Yeah,” Bankman-Fried replied.) He’d spoken so cynically about his motivations that to many it seemed like a comic book character was pulling off his mask to reveal the villain who’d been hiding there all along.</p><p>I set out on this visit with a different working theory. Maybe I was feeling the tug of my past reporting, but I still didn’t think the talk about charity was all made up. Since he was a teenager, Bankman-Fried has described himself as utilitarian—following the philosophy that the correct action is the one likely to result in the greatest good for the greatest number of people. He said his endgame was making and donating enough money to prevent pandemics and stop runaway artificial intelligence from destroying humanity. Faced with a crisis, and believing he was the hero of his own sci-fi movie, he might’ve thought it was right to make a crazy, even illegal, gamble to save his company.</p><p>To be clear, if that’s what happened, it’s the logic of a megalomaniac, not a martyr. The money wasn’t his to gamble with, and “the ends justify the means” is a cliché of bad ethics. But if it’s what he believed, he might still think he’d made the right decision, even if it didn’t work out. It seemed to me that’s what he meant when he messaged<i>Vox</i>, “The worst quadrant is sketchy + lose. The best is win + ???” I want to probe that, in part because it might get him to talk more candidly about what had happened to his customers’ money.</p><p>I decide to approach the topic gingerly, on terms I think he’ll relate to, as it seems he’s in less of a crime-confess-y mood. He’s said he likes to evaluate decisions in terms of expected value—the odds of success times the likely payoff—so I begin by asking: “Should I judge you by your impact, or by the expected value of your decision?”</p><p>“When all is said and done, what matters is your actual realized impact. Like, that’s what actually matters to the world,” he says. “But, obviously, there’s luck.”</p><p>That’s the in I’m looking for. For the next 11 hours—with breaks for fundraising calls and a very awkward dinner—I try to get him to tell me exactly what he meant. He denies that he’s committed fraud or lied to anyone and blames FTX’s failure on his sloppiness and inattention. But at points it seems like he’s saying he got<i>un</i>lucky, or miscalculated the odds.</p><p>Bankman-Fried tells me he’s still got a chance to raise $8 billion to save his company. He seems delusional, or committed to pretending this is still an error he can fix, and either way, the few supporters remaining at his penthouse seem unlikely to set him straight. The grim scene reminds me a bit of the end of<i>Scarface</i>, with Tony Montana holed up in his mansion, semi-incoherent, his unknown enemies sneaking closer. But instead of mountains of cocaine, Bankman-Fried is clinging to spreadsheet tabs filled with wildly optimistic cryptocurrency valuations.</p><p>Think of FTX like an offshore casino. Customers sent in money, then gambled on the price of hundreds ofcryptocurrencies—not just Bitcoin or Ether, but more obscure coins. In crypto slang, the latter are called shitcoins, because almost no one knows what they’re for. But in the past few years, otherwise respectable people, from retired dentists to heads of state, convinced themselves that these coins werethe future of finance. Or at least that enough other people might think so to make the price go up. Bankman-Fried’s casino was growing so fast that earlier this year some of Silicon Valley’s top venture capitalists invested in it at a $32 billion valuation.</p><p>The problem surfaced last month. After a rival crypto-casino kingpin raised concerns about FTX on Twitter, customers rushed to cash in their chips. But when Bankman-Fried’s casino opened the vault, their money wasn’t there. According to multiple news reports citing people familiar with the matter, it had been secretly lent to Bankman-Fried’s hedge fund, which had lost it in some mix of bad bets, insane spending and perhaps something even sketchier. John Ray III, the lawyer who’s now chief executive officer of the bankrupt exchange, has alleged in court that FTX covered up the loans using secret software.</p><p>Bankman-Fried denies this again to me. Returning to the framework of expected value, I ask him if the decisions he made were correct.</p><p>“I think that I’ve made a lot of plus-EV decisions and a few very large boneheaded decisions,” he says. “Certainly in retrospect, those very large decisions were very bad, and may end up overwhelming everything else.”</p><p>The chain of events, in his telling, started about four years ago. Bankman-Fried was in Hong Kong, where he’d moved from Berkeley, California, with a small group of friends from the effective-altruism community. Together they ran a successful startup crypto hedge fund,Alameda Research. (The name itself was an early example of his casual attitude toward rules—it was chosen to avoid scrutiny from banks, which frequently closed its accounts. “If we named our company like, Shitcoin Daytraders Inc., they’d probably just reject us,” Bankman-Fried told a podcaster in 2021. “But, I mean, no one doesn’t like research.”)</p><p>The fund had made millions of dollars exploiting inefficiencies across cryptocurrency exchanges. (Ex-employees, even those otherwise critical of Bankman-Fried, have said this is true, though some have said Alameda then lost some of that money because of bad trades and mismanagement.) Bankman-Fried and his friends began considering starting their own exchange—what would become FTX.</p><p>The way Bankman-Fried later described this decision reveals his attitude toward risk. He estimated there was an 80% chance the exchange would fail to attract enough customers. But he’s said one should always take a bet, even a long-shot one, if the expected value is positive, calling this stance “risk neutral.” But it actually meant he would take risks that to a normal person sound insane. “As an individual, to make a bet where it’s like, ‘I’m going to gamble my $10 billion and either get $20 billion or $0, with equal probability,’ would be madness,” Rob Wiblin, host of an effective-altruism podcast, said to Bankman-Fried in April. “But from an altruistic point of view, it’s not so crazy.”</p><p>“Completely agree,” Bankman-Fried replied. He told another interviewer that he’d make a bet described as a chance of “51% you double the earth out somewhere else, 49% it all disappears.”</p><p>Bankman-Fried and his friends jump-started FTX by having Alameda provide liquidity. It was a huge conflict of interest. Imagine if the top executives at an online poker site also entered its high-stakes tournaments—the temptation to cheat by peeking at other players’ cards would be huge. But Bankman-Fried assured customers that Alameda would play by the same rules as everyone else, and enough people came to trade that FTX took off. “Having Alameda provide liquidity on FTX early on was the right decision, because I think that helped make FTX a great product for users, even though it obviously ended up backfiring,” Bankman-Fried tells me.</p><p>Part of FTX’s appeal was that it was mostly a derivatives exchange, which allowed customers to trade “on margin,” meaning with borrowed money. That’s a key to his defense. Bankman-Fried argues no one should be surprised that big traders on FTX, including Alameda, were borrowing from the exchange, and that his fund’s position just somehow got out of hand. “Everyone was borrowing and lending,” he says. “That’s been its calling card.” But FTX’s normal margin system, crypto traders tell me, would never have permitted anyone to accumulate a debt that looked like Alameda’s. When I ask if Alameda had to follow the same margin rules as other traders, he admits the fund did not. “There was more leeway,” he says.</p><p>That wouldn’t have been so important had Alameda stuck to its original trading strategy of relatively low-risk arbitrage trades. But in 2020 and 2021, as Bankman-Fried became the face of FTX, amajor political donorand a favorite of Silicon Valley, Alameda faced more competition in that market-making business. It shifted its strategy to, essentially, gambling on shitcoins.</p><p>As Caroline Ellison, then Alameda’s co-CEO, explained in aMarch 2021 post on Twitter: “The way to really make money is figure out when the market is going to go up and get balls long before that,” she wrote, adding that she’d learned the strategy from the classic market-manipulation memoir,<i>Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.</i>Her co-CEO said in another tweet that a profitable strategy was buying Dogecoin becauseElon Musktweeted about it.</p><p>The reason they were bragging about what sounded like a high schooler’s tactics was that it was working better than anyone knew. When we spoke in February 2022, Bankman-Fried told me that Alameda had made $1 billion the previous year. He now says that was Alameda’s arbitrage profits. On top of that, its shitcoins gained tens of billions of dollars of value, at least on paper. “If you mark everything to market, I do believe at one point my net worth got to $100 billion,” Bankman-Fried says.</p><p>Any trader would know this wasn’t nearly as good as it sounded. The large pile of tokens couldn’t be turned into cash without crashing the market. Much of it was even made of tokens that Bankman-Fried and his friends had spun up themselves, such as FTT, Serum or Maps—the official currency of a nonsensical crypto-meets-mapping app—or were closely affiliated with, like Solana. While Bankman-Fried acknowledges the pile was worth something less than $100 billion—maybe he’d mark it down a third, he says—he maintains that he could have extracted quite a lot of real money from his holdings.</p><p>But he didn’t. Instead, Alameda borrowed billions of dollars from other crypto lenders—not FTX—and sunk them into more crypto bets. Publicly, Bankman-Fried presented himself as an ethical operator andcalled for regulationto rein in crypto’s worst excesses. But through his hedge fund, he’d actually become the market’s most degenerate gambler. I ask him why, if he really thought he could sell the tokens, he didn’t. “Why not, like, take some risk off?”</p><p>“OK. In retrospect, absolutely. That would’ve been the right, like, unambiguously the right thing to do,” he says. “But also it was just, like, hilariously well-capitalized.”</p><p>Near the peak of the great shitcoin boom, in April 2022, FTX hosted a lavish conference at a resort and casino in Nassau. It was Bankman-Fried’s coming out party. He got to share the stage with quarterback Tom Brady. Also there: former Prime Minister Tony Blair and ex-President Bill Clinton, who extended a fatherly hand when the young crypto executive seemed nervous. The author Michael Lewis, who’s working on a book about Bankman-Fried, praised him in a fawning interview onstage. “You’re breaking land speed records. And I don’t think people are really noticing what’s happened, just how dramatic the revolution has become,” Lewis said, asking when crypto would take over Wall Street.</p><p>The next month, thecrypto crash began. It started when a popular set of coins called Terra and Luna collapsed, wiping out $60 billion. Terra and Luna were almost openly a Ponzi scheme, but some of the biggest crypto funds had invested in them with borrowed money and went bankrupt. This made the lenders who’d lent billions of dollars to Alameda nervous. They asked Alameda to repay the loans, with real money. It needed billions of dollars, fast, or it would go bust.</p><p>There are two different versions of what happened next. Two people with knowledge of the matter told me that Ellison, by then the sole head of Alameda, had told her side of the story to her staff amid the crisis. Ellison said that she, Bankman-Fried and his two top lieutenants—Gary Wang and Nishad Singh—had discussed the shortfall. Instead of admitting Alameda’s failure, they decided to use FTX customer funds to cover it, according to the people. If that’s true, all four executives would’ve knowingly committed fraud. (Ellison, Wang and Singh didn’t respond to messages seeking comment.)</p><p>When I put this to Bankman-Fried, he screws up his eyes, furrows his eyebrows, puts his hands in his hair and thinks for a few seconds.</p><p>“So, it’s not how I remember what happened,” Bankman-Fried says. But he surprises me by acknowledging that there had been a meeting, post-Luna crash, where they debated what to do about Alameda’s debts. The way he tells it, he was packing for a trip to DC and “only kibitzing on parts of the discussion.” It didn’t seem like a crisis, he says. It was a matter of extending a bit more credit to a fund that already traded on margin and still had a pile of collateral worth way more than enough to cover the loan. (Although the pile of collateral was largely shitcoins.)</p><p>“That was the point at which Alameda’s margin position on FTX got, well, it got more leveraged substantially,” he says. “Obviously, in retrospect, we should’ve just said no. I sort of didn’t realize then how large the position had gotten.”</p><p>“You were all aware there was a chance this would not work,” I say.</p><p>“That’s right,” he says. “But I thought that the risk was substantially smaller.”</p><p>I try to imagine what he could’ve been thinking. If FTX had liquidated Alameda’s position, the fund would’ve gone bankrupt, and even if the exchange didn’t take direct losses, customers would’ve lost confidence in it. Bankman-Fried points out that the companies that lent money to Alameda might have failed, too, causing a hard-to-predict cascade of events.</p><p>“Now let’s say you don’t margin call Alameda,” I posit. “Maybe you think there’s like a 70% chance everything will be OK, it’ll all work out?”</p><p>“Yes, but also in the cases where it didn’t work out, I thought the downside was not nearly as high as it was,” he says. “I thought that there was the risk of a much smaller hole. I thought it was going to be manageable.”</p><p>Bankman-Fried pulls out his laptop (an Acer Predator) and opens a spreadsheet to show what he meant. It’s similar to thebalance sheethe reportedly showed investors when he was seeking a last-minute bailout, which he says consolidated FTX and Alameda’s positions because by then the fund had defaulted on its debt. On one line—labeled “What I *thought*”—he lists $8.9 billion in debts and way more than enough money to pay them: $9 billion in liquid assets, $15.4 billion in “less liquid” assets and $3.2 billion in “illiquid” ones. He tells me this was more or less the position he was considering when he had the meeting with the other executives.</p><p>“It looks naively to me like, you know, there’s still some significant liabilities out there, but, like, we should be able to cover it,” he says.</p><p>“So what’s the problem, then?”</p><p>Bankman-Fried points to another place on the spreadsheet, which he says shows the actual truth of the situation at the time of the meeting. This one shows similar numbers, but with $8 billion less liquid assets.</p><p>“What’s the difference between these two rows here?” he asks.</p><p>“You didn’t have $8 billion in cash that you thought you had,” I say.</p><p>“That’s correct. Yes.”</p><p>“You misplaced $8 billion?” I ask.</p><p>“Misaccounted,” Bankman-Fried says, sounding almost proud of his explanation. Sometimes, he says, customers would wire money to Alameda Research instead of sending it directly to FTX. (Some banks were more willing to work with the hedge fund than the exchange, for some reason.) He claims that somehow, FTX’s internal accounting system double-counted this money, essentially crediting it to both the exchange and the fund.</p><p>That still doesn’t explain why the money was gone. “Where did the $8 billion go?” I ask.</p><p>To answer, Bankman-Fried creates a new tab on the spreadsheet and starts typing. He lists Alameda and FTX’s biggest cash flows. One of the biggest expenses is paying a net $2.5 billion toBinance, a rival, to buy out its investment in FTX. He also lists $250 million for real estate, $1.5 billion for expenses, $4 billion for venture capital investments, $1.5 billion for acquisitions and $1 billion labeled “fuckups.” Even accounting for both firms’ profits, and all the venture capital money raised by FTX, it tallies to negative $6.5 billion.</p><p>Bankman-Fried is telling me that the billions of dollars customers wired to Alameda is gone simply because the companies spent way more than they made. He claims he paid so little attention to his expenses that he didn’t realize he was spending more than he was taking in. “I was real lazy about this mental math,” the former physics major says. He creates another column in his spreadsheet and types in much lower numbers to show what he thought he was spending at the time.</p><p>It seems to me like he is, without saying it exactly, blaming his underlings for FTX’s failure, especially Ellison, the head of Alameda. The two had dated and lived together at times. She was part of Bankman-Fried’s Future Fund, which was supposed to distribute FTX and Alameda’s earnings to effective-altruist-approved causes. It seems unlikely she would’ve blown billions of dollars without asking. “People might take, like, the TLDR as, like, it was my ex-girlfriend’s fault,” I tell him. “That is sort of what you’re saying.”</p><p>“I think the biggest failure was that it wasn’t entirely clear whose fault it was,” he says.</p><p>Bankman-Fried tells me he has to make a call. After a while, the sun goes down and I’m hungry. I’m allowed to join a group of Bankman-Fried’s supporters for dinner, as long as I don’t mention their names.</p><p>With the curtains drawn, the living room looks considerably less grand than it does in pictures. I’ve been told that FTX employees gathered here amid the crisis, while Bankman-Fried worked in another apartment. Addled by stress and sleep deprivation, they wept and hugged one another. Most didn’t say goodbye as they left the island, one by one. Many flew back to their childhood homes to be with their parents.</p><p>The supporters at the dinner tell me they feel like the press has been unfair. They say that Bankman-Fried and his friends weren’t the polyamorous partiers the tabloids have portrayed and that they did little besides work. Earlier in the week, a Bahamian man who’d served as FTX’s round-the-clock chauffeur and gofer also told me the reports weren’t true. “People make it seem like this big<i>Wolf of Wall Street</i>thing,” he said. “Bro, it was a bunch of nerds.”</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b87535c118f069e782e80762398d0a9c\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"1000\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Illustration: Maxime Mouysset for Bloomberg Businessweek</p><p>By the time I finish my plate of off-the-record rice and beans, Bankman-Fried is free again. We return to the study. He’s barefoot now, having balled up his gym socks and stuffed them behind a couch cushion. He lies on the couch, his computer on his lap. The light from the screen casts shadows of his curls on his forehead.</p><p>I notice a skin-colored patch on his arm. He tells me it’s a transdermal antidepressant, selegiline. I ask if he’s using it as a performance enhancer or to treat depression. “Nothing’s binary,” he says. “But I’ve been borderline depressed for my whole life.” He adds that he also sometimes takes Adderall—“10 milligrams at a time, a few times a day”—as did some of his colleagues, but that talk of drug use is overblown. “I don’t think that was the problem,” he says.</p><p>I tell Bankman-Fried my theory about his motivation, sidestepping the question of whether he misappropriated customer funds. Bankman-Fried denies that his world-saving goals made him willing to take giant gambles. As we talk more, it seems like he’s saying he made some kind of bet but hadn’t calculated the expected value properly.</p><p>“I was comfortable taking the risk that, like, I may end up kind of falling flat,” he says, staring at his computer screen, where he had pulled up a game and was leading an army of cartoon knights and fairies into battle. “But what actually happened was disastrously bad and, like, no significant chance of that happening would’ve made sense to risk, and that was a fuckup. Like, that was a mass miscalculation in downside.”</p><p>I read Bankman-Fried a post by Will MacAskill, one of the founders of the effective-altruism movement. He recruited Bankman-Fried into it when he was a junior at MIT and this year had joined the board of Bankman-Fried’s Future Fund. On Nov. 11,MacAskill wrote on Twitterthat Bankman-Fried had betrayed him. “For years, the EA community has emphasized the importance of integrity, honesty and the respect of common-sense moral constraints,” MacAskill wrote. “If customer funds were misused, then Sam did not listen; he must have thought he was above such considerations.”</p><p>Bankman-Fried closes his eyes and pushes his toes against one arm of the couch, clenching the other arm with his hands. “That’s not how I view what happened,” he says. “But I did fuck up. I think really what I want to say is, like, I’m really fucking sorry. By far the worst thing about this is that it will tarnish the reputation of people who are dedicated to doing nothing but what they thought was best for the world.” Bankman-Fried trails off. On his computer screen, his army casts spells and swings swords unattended.</p><p>I ask what he’d say to people who are comparing him to the most famous Ponzi schemer of recent times. “Bernie Madoff also said he had good intentions and gave a lot to charity,” I say.</p><p>“FTX was a legitimate, profitable, thriving business. And I fucked up by, like, allowing a margin position to get too big on it. One that endangered the platform. It was a completely unnecessary and unforced error, which like maybe I got super unlucky on, but, like, that was my bad.”</p><p>“It fucking sucks,” he adds. “But it wasn’t inherent to what the business was. It was just a fuckup. A huge fuckup.”</p><p>To me, it doesn’t really seem like a fuckup. Even if I believe that he misplaced and accidentally spent $8 billion, he’s already told me that Alameda had been allowed to violate FTX’s margin rules. This wasn’t some little technical thing. He was so proud of FTX’s margining system that he’d been lobbying regulators for it to be used on US exchanges instead of traditional safeguards. In May, Bankman-Fried himself said on Twitter that exchanges should never extend credit to a fund and put other customers’ assets at risk. He wrote that the idea an exchange would even have that discretion was “scary.” I read him the tweets and ask: “Isn’t that, like, exactly what you did, right around that time?”</p><p>“Yeah, I guess that’s kind of fair,” he says. Then he seems to claim that this was evidence the rules he was lobbying for were a good idea. “I think this is one of the things that would have stopped.”</p><p>“You had a rule on your platform. You didn’t follow it,” I say.</p><p>By now it’s past midnight, and—operating without the benefit of any prescription stimulants—I’m worn out. I ask Bankman-Fried if I can see the apartment’s deck before I leave. Outside, crickets chirp as we stand by the pool. The marina is dark, lit only by the spotlights of yachts. As I say goodbye, Bankman-Fried bites into a burger bun and starts talking about potential bailouts with one of his supporters.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>11 Hours With Sam Bankman-Fried: Inside the Bahamian Penthouse After FTX’s Fall</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n11 Hours With Sam Bankman-Fried: Inside the Bahamian Penthouse After FTX’s Fall\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-03 07:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2022-12-02/inside-sam-bankman-fried-s-bahamian-penthouse-after-ftx-s-collapse?srnd=premium-asia><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Sam Bankman-Fried’s $30 million Bahamas penthouse looks like a dorm after the students have left for winter break. The dishwasher is full. Towels are piled in the laundry room. Bat streamers from a ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2022-12-02/inside-sam-bankman-fried-s-bahamian-penthouse-after-ftx-s-collapse?srnd=premium-asia\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc.","GBTC":"Grayscale Bitcoin Trust"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2022-12-02/inside-sam-bankman-fried-s-bahamian-penthouse-after-ftx-s-collapse?srnd=premium-asia","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1152464265","content_text":"Sam Bankman-Fried’s $30 million Bahamas penthouse looks like a dorm after the students have left for winter break. The dishwasher is full. Towels are piled in the laundry room. Bat streamers from a Halloween party are still hanging from a doorway. Two boxes of Legos sit on the floor of one bedroom. And then there are the shoes—dozens of sneakers and heels piled in the foyer, left behind by employees who fled the island of New Providence last month when his cryptocurrency exchangeFTX imploded.“It’s been an interesting few weeks,” Bankman-Fried says in a chipper tone as he greets me. It’s a muggy Saturday afternoon, eight days after FTX filed for bankruptcy. He’s shoeless, in white gym socks, a red T-shirt and wrinkled khaki shorts. His standard uniform.This isn’t part of the typical tour Bankman-Fried gave to the many reporters who came to tell the tale of the boy-genius-crypto-billionaire who slept on a beanbag chair next to his desk and only got rich so he could give it all away, and it’s easy to see why. The apartment is at the top of one of the luxury condo buildings that border a marina in a gated community called Albany. Outside, deckhands buff the stanchions of a 200-foot yacht owned by a fracking billionaire. A bronze replica of Wall Street’sCharging Bullstatue stands on the lawn, which is as manicured as the residents. I feel like I’ve crash-landed on an alien planet populated solely by the very rich and the people who work for them.Bankman-Fried leads me down a marble-floored hallway to a small bedroom, where he perches on a plush brown couch. Always known for being jittery, he taps his foot so hard it rattles a coffee table, smacks gum and rubs his index finger with his thumb like he’s twirling an invisible fidget spinner. But he seems almost cheerful as he explains why he’s invited me into his 12,000-square-foot bolthole, against the advice of his lawyers, even as investigators from theUS Department of Justice probewhether he used customers’ funds to prop up his hedge fund, a crime that could send him to prison for years. (Spoiler alert: It sure looks like he did.)“What I’m focusing on is what I can do, right now, to try and make things as right as possible,” Bankman-Fried says. “I can’t do that if I’m just focused on covering my ass.”But he seems to be doing just that, with me here and all along the apology tour he’ll later embark on, which will include a video appearance at aNew York Timesconference and an interview onGood Morning America. He’s been trying to blame his firm’s failure on a hazy combination of comically poor bookkeeping, wildly misjudged risks and complete ignorance of what his hedge fund was doing. In other words, an alumnus of both MIT and the elite Wall Street trading firmJane Streetis arguing that he was just dumb with the numbers—not pulling a conscious fraud. Talking in detail to journalists about what’s certain to be the subject of extensive litigation seems like an unusual strategy, but it makes sense: The press helped him create his only-honest-man-in-crypto image, so why not use them to talk his way out of trouble?Bankman-Fried after an interview onBloomberg Wealth With David Rubensteinon Aug. 17, 2022.Photographer: Jeenah Moon/BloombergHe doesn’t say so, but one reason he might be willing to speak with me is that I’m one of the reporters who helped build him up. After spending two days at FTX’s offices in February, I flew past the brightred flagsat his company—its lack of corporate governance, the ties to his Alameda Research hedge fund, its profligate spending on marketing, the fact that it operated largely outside US jurisdiction. Iwrote a storyfocused on whether Bankman-Fried would follow through on his plans to donate huge sums to charity and his connections to an unusual philanthropic movement calledeffective altruism.It wasn’t the most embarrassingly puffy of the many puff pieces that came out about him. (“After my interview with SBF, I was convinced: I was talking to a future trillionaire,” one writer said in an article commissioned by a venture capital firm.) But my tone wasn’t entirely dissimilar. “Bankman-Fried is a thought experiment from a college philosophy seminar come to life,” I wrote. “Should someone who wants to save the world first amass as much money and power as possible, or will the pursuit corrupt him along the way?” Now it seems pretty clear that a better question would’ve been whether the business was ascam from the start.I tell Bankman-Fried I want to talk about the decisions that led to FTX’s collapse, and why he took them. Earlier in the week, inlate-night DM exchangeswith aVoxreporter and on a phone call with a YouTuber, he made comments that many interpreted as an admission that everything he said was a lie. (“So the ethics stuff, mostly a front?” theVoxreporter asked. “Yeah,” Bankman-Fried replied.) He’d spoken so cynically about his motivations that to many it seemed like a comic book character was pulling off his mask to reveal the villain who’d been hiding there all along.I set out on this visit with a different working theory. Maybe I was feeling the tug of my past reporting, but I still didn’t think the talk about charity was all made up. Since he was a teenager, Bankman-Fried has described himself as utilitarian—following the philosophy that the correct action is the one likely to result in the greatest good for the greatest number of people. He said his endgame was making and donating enough money to prevent pandemics and stop runaway artificial intelligence from destroying humanity. Faced with a crisis, and believing he was the hero of his own sci-fi movie, he might’ve thought it was right to make a crazy, even illegal, gamble to save his company.To be clear, if that’s what happened, it’s the logic of a megalomaniac, not a martyr. The money wasn’t his to gamble with, and “the ends justify the means” is a cliché of bad ethics. But if it’s what he believed, he might still think he’d made the right decision, even if it didn’t work out. It seemed to me that’s what he meant when he messagedVox, “The worst quadrant is sketchy + lose. The best is win + ???” I want to probe that, in part because it might get him to talk more candidly about what had happened to his customers’ money.I decide to approach the topic gingerly, on terms I think he’ll relate to, as it seems he’s in less of a crime-confess-y mood. He’s said he likes to evaluate decisions in terms of expected value—the odds of success times the likely payoff—so I begin by asking: “Should I judge you by your impact, or by the expected value of your decision?”“When all is said and done, what matters is your actual realized impact. Like, that’s what actually matters to the world,” he says. “But, obviously, there’s luck.”That’s the in I’m looking for. For the next 11 hours—with breaks for fundraising calls and a very awkward dinner—I try to get him to tell me exactly what he meant. He denies that he’s committed fraud or lied to anyone and blames FTX’s failure on his sloppiness and inattention. But at points it seems like he’s saying he gotunlucky, or miscalculated the odds.Bankman-Fried tells me he’s still got a chance to raise $8 billion to save his company. He seems delusional, or committed to pretending this is still an error he can fix, and either way, the few supporters remaining at his penthouse seem unlikely to set him straight. The grim scene reminds me a bit of the end ofScarface, with Tony Montana holed up in his mansion, semi-incoherent, his unknown enemies sneaking closer. But instead of mountains of cocaine, Bankman-Fried is clinging to spreadsheet tabs filled with wildly optimistic cryptocurrency valuations.Think of FTX like an offshore casino. Customers sent in money, then gambled on the price of hundreds ofcryptocurrencies—not just Bitcoin or Ether, but more obscure coins. In crypto slang, the latter are called shitcoins, because almost no one knows what they’re for. But in the past few years, otherwise respectable people, from retired dentists to heads of state, convinced themselves that these coins werethe future of finance. Or at least that enough other people might think so to make the price go up. Bankman-Fried’s casino was growing so fast that earlier this year some of Silicon Valley’s top venture capitalists invested in it at a $32 billion valuation.The problem surfaced last month. After a rival crypto-casino kingpin raised concerns about FTX on Twitter, customers rushed to cash in their chips. But when Bankman-Fried’s casino opened the vault, their money wasn’t there. According to multiple news reports citing people familiar with the matter, it had been secretly lent to Bankman-Fried’s hedge fund, which had lost it in some mix of bad bets, insane spending and perhaps something even sketchier. John Ray III, the lawyer who’s now chief executive officer of the bankrupt exchange, has alleged in court that FTX covered up the loans using secret software.Bankman-Fried denies this again to me. Returning to the framework of expected value, I ask him if the decisions he made were correct.“I think that I’ve made a lot of plus-EV decisions and a few very large boneheaded decisions,” he says. “Certainly in retrospect, those very large decisions were very bad, and may end up overwhelming everything else.”The chain of events, in his telling, started about four years ago. Bankman-Fried was in Hong Kong, where he’d moved from Berkeley, California, with a small group of friends from the effective-altruism community. Together they ran a successful startup crypto hedge fund,Alameda Research. (The name itself was an early example of his casual attitude toward rules—it was chosen to avoid scrutiny from banks, which frequently closed its accounts. “If we named our company like, Shitcoin Daytraders Inc., they’d probably just reject us,” Bankman-Fried told a podcaster in 2021. “But, I mean, no one doesn’t like research.”)The fund had made millions of dollars exploiting inefficiencies across cryptocurrency exchanges. (Ex-employees, even those otherwise critical of Bankman-Fried, have said this is true, though some have said Alameda then lost some of that money because of bad trades and mismanagement.) Bankman-Fried and his friends began considering starting their own exchange—what would become FTX.The way Bankman-Fried later described this decision reveals his attitude toward risk. He estimated there was an 80% chance the exchange would fail to attract enough customers. But he’s said one should always take a bet, even a long-shot one, if the expected value is positive, calling this stance “risk neutral.” But it actually meant he would take risks that to a normal person sound insane. “As an individual, to make a bet where it’s like, ‘I’m going to gamble my $10 billion and either get $20 billion or $0, with equal probability,’ would be madness,” Rob Wiblin, host of an effective-altruism podcast, said to Bankman-Fried in April. “But from an altruistic point of view, it’s not so crazy.”“Completely agree,” Bankman-Fried replied. He told another interviewer that he’d make a bet described as a chance of “51% you double the earth out somewhere else, 49% it all disappears.”Bankman-Fried and his friends jump-started FTX by having Alameda provide liquidity. It was a huge conflict of interest. Imagine if the top executives at an online poker site also entered its high-stakes tournaments—the temptation to cheat by peeking at other players’ cards would be huge. But Bankman-Fried assured customers that Alameda would play by the same rules as everyone else, and enough people came to trade that FTX took off. “Having Alameda provide liquidity on FTX early on was the right decision, because I think that helped make FTX a great product for users, even though it obviously ended up backfiring,” Bankman-Fried tells me.Part of FTX’s appeal was that it was mostly a derivatives exchange, which allowed customers to trade “on margin,” meaning with borrowed money. That’s a key to his defense. Bankman-Fried argues no one should be surprised that big traders on FTX, including Alameda, were borrowing from the exchange, and that his fund’s position just somehow got out of hand. “Everyone was borrowing and lending,” he says. “That’s been its calling card.” But FTX’s normal margin system, crypto traders tell me, would never have permitted anyone to accumulate a debt that looked like Alameda’s. When I ask if Alameda had to follow the same margin rules as other traders, he admits the fund did not. “There was more leeway,” he says.That wouldn’t have been so important had Alameda stuck to its original trading strategy of relatively low-risk arbitrage trades. But in 2020 and 2021, as Bankman-Fried became the face of FTX, amajor political donorand a favorite of Silicon Valley, Alameda faced more competition in that market-making business. It shifted its strategy to, essentially, gambling on shitcoins.As Caroline Ellison, then Alameda’s co-CEO, explained in aMarch 2021 post on Twitter: “The way to really make money is figure out when the market is going to go up and get balls long before that,” she wrote, adding that she’d learned the strategy from the classic market-manipulation memoir,Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.Her co-CEO said in another tweet that a profitable strategy was buying Dogecoin becauseElon Musktweeted about it.The reason they were bragging about what sounded like a high schooler’s tactics was that it was working better than anyone knew. When we spoke in February 2022, Bankman-Fried told me that Alameda had made $1 billion the previous year. He now says that was Alameda’s arbitrage profits. On top of that, its shitcoins gained tens of billions of dollars of value, at least on paper. “If you mark everything to market, I do believe at one point my net worth got to $100 billion,” Bankman-Fried says.Any trader would know this wasn’t nearly as good as it sounded. The large pile of tokens couldn’t be turned into cash without crashing the market. Much of it was even made of tokens that Bankman-Fried and his friends had spun up themselves, such as FTT, Serum or Maps—the official currency of a nonsensical crypto-meets-mapping app—or were closely affiliated with, like Solana. While Bankman-Fried acknowledges the pile was worth something less than $100 billion—maybe he’d mark it down a third, he says—he maintains that he could have extracted quite a lot of real money from his holdings.But he didn’t. Instead, Alameda borrowed billions of dollars from other crypto lenders—not FTX—and sunk them into more crypto bets. Publicly, Bankman-Fried presented himself as an ethical operator andcalled for regulationto rein in crypto’s worst excesses. But through his hedge fund, he’d actually become the market’s most degenerate gambler. I ask him why, if he really thought he could sell the tokens, he didn’t. “Why not, like, take some risk off?”“OK. In retrospect, absolutely. That would’ve been the right, like, unambiguously the right thing to do,” he says. “But also it was just, like, hilariously well-capitalized.”Near the peak of the great shitcoin boom, in April 2022, FTX hosted a lavish conference at a resort and casino in Nassau. It was Bankman-Fried’s coming out party. He got to share the stage with quarterback Tom Brady. Also there: former Prime Minister Tony Blair and ex-President Bill Clinton, who extended a fatherly hand when the young crypto executive seemed nervous. The author Michael Lewis, who’s working on a book about Bankman-Fried, praised him in a fawning interview onstage. “You’re breaking land speed records. And I don’t think people are really noticing what’s happened, just how dramatic the revolution has become,” Lewis said, asking when crypto would take over Wall Street.The next month, thecrypto crash began. It started when a popular set of coins called Terra and Luna collapsed, wiping out $60 billion. Terra and Luna were almost openly a Ponzi scheme, but some of the biggest crypto funds had invested in them with borrowed money and went bankrupt. This made the lenders who’d lent billions of dollars to Alameda nervous. They asked Alameda to repay the loans, with real money. It needed billions of dollars, fast, or it would go bust.There are two different versions of what happened next. Two people with knowledge of the matter told me that Ellison, by then the sole head of Alameda, had told her side of the story to her staff amid the crisis. Ellison said that she, Bankman-Fried and his two top lieutenants—Gary Wang and Nishad Singh—had discussed the shortfall. Instead of admitting Alameda’s failure, they decided to use FTX customer funds to cover it, according to the people. If that’s true, all four executives would’ve knowingly committed fraud. (Ellison, Wang and Singh didn’t respond to messages seeking comment.)When I put this to Bankman-Fried, he screws up his eyes, furrows his eyebrows, puts his hands in his hair and thinks for a few seconds.“So, it’s not how I remember what happened,” Bankman-Fried says. But he surprises me by acknowledging that there had been a meeting, post-Luna crash, where they debated what to do about Alameda’s debts. The way he tells it, he was packing for a trip to DC and “only kibitzing on parts of the discussion.” It didn’t seem like a crisis, he says. It was a matter of extending a bit more credit to a fund that already traded on margin and still had a pile of collateral worth way more than enough to cover the loan. (Although the pile of collateral was largely shitcoins.)“That was the point at which Alameda’s margin position on FTX got, well, it got more leveraged substantially,” he says. “Obviously, in retrospect, we should’ve just said no. I sort of didn’t realize then how large the position had gotten.”“You were all aware there was a chance this would not work,” I say.“That’s right,” he says. “But I thought that the risk was substantially smaller.”I try to imagine what he could’ve been thinking. If FTX had liquidated Alameda’s position, the fund would’ve gone bankrupt, and even if the exchange didn’t take direct losses, customers would’ve lost confidence in it. Bankman-Fried points out that the companies that lent money to Alameda might have failed, too, causing a hard-to-predict cascade of events.“Now let’s say you don’t margin call Alameda,” I posit. “Maybe you think there’s like a 70% chance everything will be OK, it’ll all work out?”“Yes, but also in the cases where it didn’t work out, I thought the downside was not nearly as high as it was,” he says. “I thought that there was the risk of a much smaller hole. I thought it was going to be manageable.”Bankman-Fried pulls out his laptop (an Acer Predator) and opens a spreadsheet to show what he meant. It’s similar to thebalance sheethe reportedly showed investors when he was seeking a last-minute bailout, which he says consolidated FTX and Alameda’s positions because by then the fund had defaulted on its debt. On one line—labeled “What I *thought*”—he lists $8.9 billion in debts and way more than enough money to pay them: $9 billion in liquid assets, $15.4 billion in “less liquid” assets and $3.2 billion in “illiquid” ones. He tells me this was more or less the position he was considering when he had the meeting with the other executives.“It looks naively to me like, you know, there’s still some significant liabilities out there, but, like, we should be able to cover it,” he says.“So what’s the problem, then?”Bankman-Fried points to another place on the spreadsheet, which he says shows the actual truth of the situation at the time of the meeting. This one shows similar numbers, but with $8 billion less liquid assets.“What’s the difference between these two rows here?” he asks.“You didn’t have $8 billion in cash that you thought you had,” I say.“That’s correct. Yes.”“You misplaced $8 billion?” I ask.“Misaccounted,” Bankman-Fried says, sounding almost proud of his explanation. Sometimes, he says, customers would wire money to Alameda Research instead of sending it directly to FTX. (Some banks were more willing to work with the hedge fund than the exchange, for some reason.) He claims that somehow, FTX’s internal accounting system double-counted this money, essentially crediting it to both the exchange and the fund.That still doesn’t explain why the money was gone. “Where did the $8 billion go?” I ask.To answer, Bankman-Fried creates a new tab on the spreadsheet and starts typing. He lists Alameda and FTX’s biggest cash flows. One of the biggest expenses is paying a net $2.5 billion toBinance, a rival, to buy out its investment in FTX. He also lists $250 million for real estate, $1.5 billion for expenses, $4 billion for venture capital investments, $1.5 billion for acquisitions and $1 billion labeled “fuckups.” Even accounting for both firms’ profits, and all the venture capital money raised by FTX, it tallies to negative $6.5 billion.Bankman-Fried is telling me that the billions of dollars customers wired to Alameda is gone simply because the companies spent way more than they made. He claims he paid so little attention to his expenses that he didn’t realize he was spending more than he was taking in. “I was real lazy about this mental math,” the former physics major says. He creates another column in his spreadsheet and types in much lower numbers to show what he thought he was spending at the time.It seems to me like he is, without saying it exactly, blaming his underlings for FTX’s failure, especially Ellison, the head of Alameda. The two had dated and lived together at times. She was part of Bankman-Fried’s Future Fund, which was supposed to distribute FTX and Alameda’s earnings to effective-altruist-approved causes. It seems unlikely she would’ve blown billions of dollars without asking. “People might take, like, the TLDR as, like, it was my ex-girlfriend’s fault,” I tell him. “That is sort of what you’re saying.”“I think the biggest failure was that it wasn’t entirely clear whose fault it was,” he says.Bankman-Fried tells me he has to make a call. After a while, the sun goes down and I’m hungry. I’m allowed to join a group of Bankman-Fried’s supporters for dinner, as long as I don’t mention their names.With the curtains drawn, the living room looks considerably less grand than it does in pictures. I’ve been told that FTX employees gathered here amid the crisis, while Bankman-Fried worked in another apartment. Addled by stress and sleep deprivation, they wept and hugged one another. Most didn’t say goodbye as they left the island, one by one. Many flew back to their childhood homes to be with their parents.The supporters at the dinner tell me they feel like the press has been unfair. They say that Bankman-Fried and his friends weren’t the polyamorous partiers the tabloids have portrayed and that they did little besides work. Earlier in the week, a Bahamian man who’d served as FTX’s round-the-clock chauffeur and gofer also told me the reports weren’t true. “People make it seem like this bigWolf of Wall Streetthing,” he said. “Bro, it was a bunch of nerds.”Illustration: Maxime Mouysset for Bloomberg BusinessweekBy the time I finish my plate of off-the-record rice and beans, Bankman-Fried is free again. We return to the study. He’s barefoot now, having balled up his gym socks and stuffed them behind a couch cushion. He lies on the couch, his computer on his lap. The light from the screen casts shadows of his curls on his forehead.I notice a skin-colored patch on his arm. He tells me it’s a transdermal antidepressant, selegiline. I ask if he’s using it as a performance enhancer or to treat depression. “Nothing’s binary,” he says. “But I’ve been borderline depressed for my whole life.” He adds that he also sometimes takes Adderall—“10 milligrams at a time, a few times a day”—as did some of his colleagues, but that talk of drug use is overblown. “I don’t think that was the problem,” he says.I tell Bankman-Fried my theory about his motivation, sidestepping the question of whether he misappropriated customer funds. Bankman-Fried denies that his world-saving goals made him willing to take giant gambles. As we talk more, it seems like he’s saying he made some kind of bet but hadn’t calculated the expected value properly.“I was comfortable taking the risk that, like, I may end up kind of falling flat,” he says, staring at his computer screen, where he had pulled up a game and was leading an army of cartoon knights and fairies into battle. “But what actually happened was disastrously bad and, like, no significant chance of that happening would’ve made sense to risk, and that was a fuckup. Like, that was a mass miscalculation in downside.”I read Bankman-Fried a post by Will MacAskill, one of the founders of the effective-altruism movement. He recruited Bankman-Fried into it when he was a junior at MIT and this year had joined the board of Bankman-Fried’s Future Fund. On Nov. 11,MacAskill wrote on Twitterthat Bankman-Fried had betrayed him. “For years, the EA community has emphasized the importance of integrity, honesty and the respect of common-sense moral constraints,” MacAskill wrote. “If customer funds were misused, then Sam did not listen; he must have thought he was above such considerations.”Bankman-Fried closes his eyes and pushes his toes against one arm of the couch, clenching the other arm with his hands. “That’s not how I view what happened,” he says. “But I did fuck up. I think really what I want to say is, like, I’m really fucking sorry. By far the worst thing about this is that it will tarnish the reputation of people who are dedicated to doing nothing but what they thought was best for the world.” Bankman-Fried trails off. On his computer screen, his army casts spells and swings swords unattended.I ask what he’d say to people who are comparing him to the most famous Ponzi schemer of recent times. “Bernie Madoff also said he had good intentions and gave a lot to charity,” I say.“FTX was a legitimate, profitable, thriving business. And I fucked up by, like, allowing a margin position to get too big on it. One that endangered the platform. It was a completely unnecessary and unforced error, which like maybe I got super unlucky on, but, like, that was my bad.”“It fucking sucks,” he adds. “But it wasn’t inherent to what the business was. It was just a fuckup. A huge fuckup.”To me, it doesn’t really seem like a fuckup. Even if I believe that he misplaced and accidentally spent $8 billion, he’s already told me that Alameda had been allowed to violate FTX’s margin rules. This wasn’t some little technical thing. He was so proud of FTX’s margining system that he’d been lobbying regulators for it to be used on US exchanges instead of traditional safeguards. In May, Bankman-Fried himself said on Twitter that exchanges should never extend credit to a fund and put other customers’ assets at risk. He wrote that the idea an exchange would even have that discretion was “scary.” I read him the tweets and ask: “Isn’t that, like, exactly what you did, right around that time?”“Yeah, I guess that’s kind of fair,” he says. Then he seems to claim that this was evidence the rules he was lobbying for were a good idea. “I think this is one of the things that would have stopped.”“You had a rule on your platform. You didn’t follow it,” I say.By now it’s past midnight, and—operating without the benefit of any prescription stimulants—I’m worn out. I ask Bankman-Fried if I can see the apartment’s deck before I leave. Outside, crickets chirp as we stand by the pool. The marina is dark, lit only by the spotlights of yachts. As I say goodbye, Bankman-Fried bites into a burger bun and starts talking about potential bailouts with one of his supporters.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":323,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9964336529,"gmtCreate":1670075319262,"gmtModify":1676538298800,"author":{"id":"4129173637846012","authorId":"4129173637846012","name":"Csd","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c94468b485a22bdb5cf61a9d32169cc0","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9964336529","repostId":"2288596195","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2288596195","pubTimestamp":1670024380,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2288596195?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-12-03 07:39","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why Now Is NOT the Time to Buy NIO Stock","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2288596195","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"Nio (NIO) stock could remain under pressure to due China’s unpredictable Covid-19 policy.Despite Nio’s revenue growth, investors should observe the company’s widening earnings loss.Investors can choos","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul><li><b>Nio</b> (<b>NIO</b>) stock could remain under pressure to due China’s unpredictable Covid-19 policy.</li><li>Despite Nio’s revenue growth, investors should observe the company’s widening earnings loss.</li><li>Investors can choose to delay any purchases of NIO stock until conditions improve.</li></ul><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14e2554adb7734c917635ae8dca2b6ba\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"432\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Michael Vi / Shutterstock.com</p><p>Given the fact that <b>Nio</b> (NYSE:<b>NIO</b>) stock is down year-to-date, eager investors may be tempted to take a long position now. However, this is actually a time to exercise caution.</p><p>For one thing, China’s on-and-off zero-Covid policies could throw a wrench into the works. Besides, Nio’s financials are less than ideal, especially when it comes to the company’s profits (or lack thereof).</p><p>As a China-based electric vehicle (EV) company, Nio has to contend with multiple challenges. There’s the prospect of having to compete in a fierce EV market. Plus, Nio must deal with a government that’s not always business-friendly.</p><p>Regardless of where you’re located, if you’re invested in Nio, the company’s problems will become your problems. There may be a time to take a stake in Nio at some point in the future, but for the time being, a watch-and-wait strategy is entirely appropriate.</p><table border=\"1\"><tbody><tr><td><b>NIO</b></td><td><b>Nio</b></td><td>$12.09</td></tr></tbody></table><h2>What’s Happening with NIO Stock?</h2><p>NIO stock started 2022 at $33, but recently declined to just $12 and change. Bear in mind, just because a stock has a lower price, doesn’t necessarily mean it’s a good value.</p><p>It’s difficult to assign a proper value to a stock when there’s an unpredictable government. On Nov. 11, a number of U.S.-listed Chinese companies’ shares rallied because Beijing seemed to be easing some of China’s Covid-19 restrictions. Yet, the hope of a near-term full reopening in China wouldn’t last long.</p><p>Fast-forward to Nov. 22, and China is reporting 28,127 new domestically transmitted Covid-19 cases. This number was close to the nation’s daily peak from April.</p><p>The next thing you know, there are reports of cultural and entertainment venues closures and restricted use of some shopping malls and restaurants. This, clearly, is a challenging macro-level environment for Nio to work in.</p><h2>Nio’s Financial Are Problematic</h2><p>Meanwhile, some folks probably celebrated Nio’s most recently reported quarterly financial results, but perhaps they shouldn’t. There’s good news in the data but also major issues.</p><p>It’s true that Nio increased its revenue 32.6% year over year during the third quarter of 2022. However, Nio also saw its gross margin shrink from 20.3% to 13.3% during that time.</p><p>Furthermore, Nio’s gross profit contracted 12.9% year over year, but that’s not even the worst part. Distressingly, Nio’s net earnings loss ballooned 392.1% year over year to the equivalent of $577.9 million in Q3 2022.</p><p>Now, we can start to see why NIO stock hasn’t regained its footing this year. Currently, there are too many holes in the bull thesis for investors to put their faith in Nio.</p><h2>What You Can Do Now</h2><p>This isn’t to suggest that Nio is a toxic business that’s about to go bankrupt. There may be an appropriate time to consider NIO stock in the future.</p><p>However, once again, let’s not confuse a low share price with a compelling value. The macro-level and company-specific conditions simply don’t favor an investment in Nio, so feel free to stay on the sidelines for now.</p></body></html>","source":"investorplace","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Now Is NOT the Time to Buy NIO Stock</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Now Is NOT the Time to Buy NIO Stock\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-03 07:39 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://investorplace.com/market360/2022/12/why-now-is-not-the-time-to-buy-nio-stock/><strong>InvestorPlace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Nio (NIO) stock could remain under pressure to due China’s unpredictable Covid-19 policy.Despite Nio’s revenue growth, investors should observe the company’s widening earnings loss.Investors can ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/market360/2022/12/why-now-is-not-the-time-to-buy-nio-stock/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4099":"汽车制造商","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","NIO.SI":"蔚来","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4531":"中概回港概念","NIO":"蔚来","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4555":"新能源车","LU0052750758.USD":"富兰克林中国基金A Acc","BK4509":"腾讯概念","LU0320764599.SGD":"FTIF - Templeton China A Acc SGD","EVS.SI":"MSCI China Electric Vehicles and Future Mobility ETF-NikkoAM","BK4526":"热门中概股","09866":"蔚来-SW","BK4574":"无人驾驶","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","LU0708995583.HKD":"TEMPLETON CHINA \"A\" (HKD) ACC","BK4504":"桥水持仓"},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/market360/2022/12/why-now-is-not-the-time-to-buy-nio-stock/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2288596195","content_text":"Nio (NIO) stock could remain under pressure to due China’s unpredictable Covid-19 policy.Despite Nio’s revenue growth, investors should observe the company’s widening earnings loss.Investors can choose to delay any purchases of NIO stock until conditions improve.Source: Michael Vi / Shutterstock.comGiven the fact that Nio (NYSE:NIO) stock is down year-to-date, eager investors may be tempted to take a long position now. However, this is actually a time to exercise caution.For one thing, China’s on-and-off zero-Covid policies could throw a wrench into the works. Besides, Nio’s financials are less than ideal, especially when it comes to the company’s profits (or lack thereof).As a China-based electric vehicle (EV) company, Nio has to contend with multiple challenges. There’s the prospect of having to compete in a fierce EV market. Plus, Nio must deal with a government that’s not always business-friendly.Regardless of where you’re located, if you’re invested in Nio, the company’s problems will become your problems. There may be a time to take a stake in Nio at some point in the future, but for the time being, a watch-and-wait strategy is entirely appropriate.NIONio$12.09What’s Happening with NIO Stock?NIO stock started 2022 at $33, but recently declined to just $12 and change. Bear in mind, just because a stock has a lower price, doesn’t necessarily mean it’s a good value.It’s difficult to assign a proper value to a stock when there’s an unpredictable government. On Nov. 11, a number of U.S.-listed Chinese companies’ shares rallied because Beijing seemed to be easing some of China’s Covid-19 restrictions. Yet, the hope of a near-term full reopening in China wouldn’t last long.Fast-forward to Nov. 22, and China is reporting 28,127 new domestically transmitted Covid-19 cases. This number was close to the nation’s daily peak from April.The next thing you know, there are reports of cultural and entertainment venues closures and restricted use of some shopping malls and restaurants. This, clearly, is a challenging macro-level environment for Nio to work in.Nio’s Financial Are ProblematicMeanwhile, some folks probably celebrated Nio’s most recently reported quarterly financial results, but perhaps they shouldn’t. There’s good news in the data but also major issues.It’s true that Nio increased its revenue 32.6% year over year during the third quarter of 2022. However, Nio also saw its gross margin shrink from 20.3% to 13.3% during that time.Furthermore, Nio’s gross profit contracted 12.9% year over year, but that’s not even the worst part. Distressingly, Nio’s net earnings loss ballooned 392.1% year over year to the equivalent of $577.9 million in Q3 2022.Now, we can start to see why NIO stock hasn’t regained its footing this year. Currently, there are too many holes in the bull thesis for investors to put their faith in Nio.What You Can Do NowThis isn’t to suggest that Nio is a toxic business that’s about to go bankrupt. There may be an appropriate time to consider NIO stock in the future.However, once again, let’s not confuse a low share price with a compelling value. The macro-level and company-specific conditions simply don’t favor an investment in Nio, so feel free to stay on the sidelines for now.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":233,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9964336695,"gmtCreate":1670075288217,"gmtModify":1676538298792,"author":{"id":"4129173637846012","authorId":"4129173637846012","name":"Csd","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c94468b485a22bdb5cf61a9d32169cc0","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"&nbsp;Like","listText":"&nbsp;Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9964336695","repostId":"1121458158","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1121458158","pubTimestamp":1670026613,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1121458158?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-12-03 08:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why Blackstone’s $69 Billion Property Fund Is Signaling Pain Ahead for Real Estate Industry","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1121458158","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"Pain is deepening across the US real estate industry.Two of the biggest players — Blackstone Inc. an","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb45c2382372c7e146989481fd97fcf6\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"666\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Pain is deepening across the US real estate industry.</p><p>Two of the biggest players — Blackstone Inc. and Wells Fargo &amp; Co. — took steps this week to contend with weaker demand as the industry faces a rapidly cooling property market, rising interest rates and waning investor appetite.</p><p>The well-heeled investors in the $69 billion Blackstone Real Estate Income Trust Inc. learnedThursday the fund will limit withdrawals as people seek to pull money from what’s been a cash magnet for one of the largest owners of real estate globally. Also Thursday, Wells Fargo, the biggest home loan originator among US banks, confirmedit’s cutting hundreds more mortgage employees as soaring borrowing costs crush demand.</p><p>The $69 billion BREIT will be limiting withdrawals as headwinds hold back the real estate market.Photographer: Angus Mordant/Bloomberg</p><p>“It’s a one-two punch,” Susan Wachter, real estate professor at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School, said in an interview. “Both are realistic pullback responses to the overall economic weakness we’re seeing now as well as the spike in interest rates.”</p><p>In the past decade, the real estate industry reaped the benefits of the Federal Reserve’s policy of low rates. Homebuyers, taking advantage of record-low borrowing costs, went on a spree that fueled double-digit price gains. Ultra-low rates also drove a refinancing boom that put more money in homeowners’ pockets and spurred the creation of jobs for mortgage brokers, title insurance agents and appraisers.</p><p>Now, real estate has been among the hardest-hit sectors of the Fed’s campaign to quash inflation by boosting interest rates at the fastest pace in decades.</p><p>In the housing market, mortgage rates that have doubled this year are sidelining potential buyers and causing sellers to pull back on new listings. A measure of prices hasdroppedfor the last three months, while pending home sales havefallenfor five months in a row. The volume of mortgages with rate locks plunged 61% in October from 2021 levels, according to Black Knight Inc.</p><p>Commercial real estate is also feeling the sting. Property prices have slumped 13% from a peak this year, according to Green Street’s October price index. The financing environment has become trickier as some big lenders have scaled back, leading property owners such as a Brookfield Asset Management Inc. unit to warn that it might struggle to refinance certain debt.</p><h2>Industry Fallout</h2><p>The industry fallout has been wide-ranging. Reverse Mortgage Funding, a home lender backed by Starwood Capital Group,filedfor Chapter 11 bankruptcy this week.</p><p>Layoffs have been widespread. Opendoor Technologies Inc., which pioneered a data-driven spin on home-flipping known as iBuying,laid offabout 18% of its workforce and wrote down the value of its property holdings by $573 million. Brokerage Redfin Corp. went through two rounds of layoffs and shuttered its iBuying business, while competitor Compass Inc. also made deep cuts to its technology teams in a quest for profitability.</p><p>Layoffs only tell part of the story of the pain. While mortgage firms and real estate technology companies cut costs by firing workers, real estate agents make up a large share of the industry’s workforce. They’re usually considered independent contractors and depend on commissions for a living. They don’t show up in layoff tallies but are also exposed to slowing home sales.</p><p>“There are hundreds of thousands of real estate agents who are not going to be practicing because people are buying and selling fewer homes,” said Mike DelPrete, a scholar-in-residence at the University of Colorado Boulder. “It’s like a silent culling of the ranks.”</p><h2>Search for Yield</h2><p>When interest rates were ultra low, investors turned to commercial real estate as a source for higher yields than they could get by owning Treasuries and other low-risk bonds.</p><p>That was part of BREIT’s appeal, drawing in high-net-worth clients lured by the 13% annualized returns in one major share class through October. BREIT raked in money to buy apartments and industrial buildings, properties that the private equity firm bet would keep growing in value because demand outstripped supply. People who couldn’t afford to buy a house needed to rent, the reasoning went, and shoppers increasingly buying online drove up the need for warehouse space.</p><p>“Our business is built on performance, not fund flows, and performance is rock solid,” a Blackstone spokesperson said Thursday after the firm announced the redemption limits.</p><p>Much of the money withdrawn from BREIT was from overseas, with offshore investors redeeming at eight times the rate of US ones in the past year. Blackstone shares dropped 2.7% Friday to $82.76 at 10:47 a.m., after tumbling 7.1% the day before.</p><p>Read more about the pressures facing Blackstone’s giant real estate fund for wealthy investors.</p><p>Commercial-property owners are getting hit with financing challenges after years of paying for deals with cheap loans. Expensive debt haspushedsome borrowers into negative leverage, which means that debt costs are outpacing expected returns. Dealmaking has also frozen, with transaction volume plunging 43% in October from a year earlier, according to MSCI Real Assets.</p><p>“With the benefits of leverage severely limited and owners who are not being forced to sell, the price expectations gap between sellers and potential buyers has been wide enough to limit deal closings,” Jim Costello, an MSCI economist, wrote in a Nov. 16 report.</p><p>Despite all the pain points, the housing and commercial real estate industries are in better shape than in some previous downturns, with more tightly underwritten loans and less of a risk of markets being oversupplied.</p><p>With BREIT, the fund is still outperforming the S&amp;P 500 Index, even as investors increasingly want out. And Thursday’s announced sale of a stake in two Las Vegas hotels is expected to generate roughly $730 million in profit for BREIT shareholders, Bloomberg previously reported.</p><h2>Relative Value</h2><p>What’s changing most drastically across the industry is the relative value of real estate to other investments.</p><p>Thanks in part to the Federal Reserve’s hiking campaign, investors have other places to earn money that could generate more yield than in years past and tend to be more liquid than commercial real estate, including Treasuries, investment-grade bonds, and mortgage-backed securities.</p><p>“Real estate is quite cyclical,” Wharton’s Wachter said. “It’s bad for real estate when rates go up and you can get higher yields from Treasuries and other assets.”</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Blackstone’s $69 Billion Property Fund Is Signaling Pain Ahead for Real Estate Industry</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Blackstone’s $69 Billion Property Fund Is Signaling Pain Ahead for Real Estate Industry\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-03 08:16 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-02/blackstone-fund-hitting-limit-signals-broader-real-estate-pain?srnd=premium><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Pain is deepening across the US real estate industry.Two of the biggest players — Blackstone Inc. and Wells Fargo & Co. — took steps this week to contend with weaker demand as the industry faces a ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-02/blackstone-fund-hitting-limit-signals-broader-real-estate-pain?srnd=premium\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BX":"黑石"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-02/blackstone-fund-hitting-limit-signals-broader-real-estate-pain?srnd=premium","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1121458158","content_text":"Pain is deepening across the US real estate industry.Two of the biggest players — Blackstone Inc. and Wells Fargo & Co. — took steps this week to contend with weaker demand as the industry faces a rapidly cooling property market, rising interest rates and waning investor appetite.The well-heeled investors in the $69 billion Blackstone Real Estate Income Trust Inc. learnedThursday the fund will limit withdrawals as people seek to pull money from what’s been a cash magnet for one of the largest owners of real estate globally. Also Thursday, Wells Fargo, the biggest home loan originator among US banks, confirmedit’s cutting hundreds more mortgage employees as soaring borrowing costs crush demand.The $69 billion BREIT will be limiting withdrawals as headwinds hold back the real estate market.Photographer: Angus Mordant/Bloomberg“It’s a one-two punch,” Susan Wachter, real estate professor at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School, said in an interview. “Both are realistic pullback responses to the overall economic weakness we’re seeing now as well as the spike in interest rates.”In the past decade, the real estate industry reaped the benefits of the Federal Reserve’s policy of low rates. Homebuyers, taking advantage of record-low borrowing costs, went on a spree that fueled double-digit price gains. Ultra-low rates also drove a refinancing boom that put more money in homeowners’ pockets and spurred the creation of jobs for mortgage brokers, title insurance agents and appraisers.Now, real estate has been among the hardest-hit sectors of the Fed’s campaign to quash inflation by boosting interest rates at the fastest pace in decades.In the housing market, mortgage rates that have doubled this year are sidelining potential buyers and causing sellers to pull back on new listings. A measure of prices hasdroppedfor the last three months, while pending home sales havefallenfor five months in a row. The volume of mortgages with rate locks plunged 61% in October from 2021 levels, according to Black Knight Inc.Commercial real estate is also feeling the sting. Property prices have slumped 13% from a peak this year, according to Green Street’s October price index. The financing environment has become trickier as some big lenders have scaled back, leading property owners such as a Brookfield Asset Management Inc. unit to warn that it might struggle to refinance certain debt.Industry FalloutThe industry fallout has been wide-ranging. Reverse Mortgage Funding, a home lender backed by Starwood Capital Group,filedfor Chapter 11 bankruptcy this week.Layoffs have been widespread. Opendoor Technologies Inc., which pioneered a data-driven spin on home-flipping known as iBuying,laid offabout 18% of its workforce and wrote down the value of its property holdings by $573 million. Brokerage Redfin Corp. went through two rounds of layoffs and shuttered its iBuying business, while competitor Compass Inc. also made deep cuts to its technology teams in a quest for profitability.Layoffs only tell part of the story of the pain. While mortgage firms and real estate technology companies cut costs by firing workers, real estate agents make up a large share of the industry’s workforce. They’re usually considered independent contractors and depend on commissions for a living. They don’t show up in layoff tallies but are also exposed to slowing home sales.“There are hundreds of thousands of real estate agents who are not going to be practicing because people are buying and selling fewer homes,” said Mike DelPrete, a scholar-in-residence at the University of Colorado Boulder. “It’s like a silent culling of the ranks.”Search for YieldWhen interest rates were ultra low, investors turned to commercial real estate as a source for higher yields than they could get by owning Treasuries and other low-risk bonds.That was part of BREIT’s appeal, drawing in high-net-worth clients lured by the 13% annualized returns in one major share class through October. BREIT raked in money to buy apartments and industrial buildings, properties that the private equity firm bet would keep growing in value because demand outstripped supply. People who couldn’t afford to buy a house needed to rent, the reasoning went, and shoppers increasingly buying online drove up the need for warehouse space.“Our business is built on performance, not fund flows, and performance is rock solid,” a Blackstone spokesperson said Thursday after the firm announced the redemption limits.Much of the money withdrawn from BREIT was from overseas, with offshore investors redeeming at eight times the rate of US ones in the past year. Blackstone shares dropped 2.7% Friday to $82.76 at 10:47 a.m., after tumbling 7.1% the day before.Read more about the pressures facing Blackstone’s giant real estate fund for wealthy investors.Commercial-property owners are getting hit with financing challenges after years of paying for deals with cheap loans. Expensive debt haspushedsome borrowers into negative leverage, which means that debt costs are outpacing expected returns. Dealmaking has also frozen, with transaction volume plunging 43% in October from a year earlier, according to MSCI Real Assets.“With the benefits of leverage severely limited and owners who are not being forced to sell, the price expectations gap between sellers and potential buyers has been wide enough to limit deal closings,” Jim Costello, an MSCI economist, wrote in a Nov. 16 report.Despite all the pain points, the housing and commercial real estate industries are in better shape than in some previous downturns, with more tightly underwritten loans and less of a risk of markets being oversupplied.With BREIT, the fund is still outperforming the S&P 500 Index, even as investors increasingly want out. And Thursday’s announced sale of a stake in two Las Vegas hotels is expected to generate roughly $730 million in profit for BREIT shareholders, Bloomberg previously reported.Relative ValueWhat’s changing most drastically across the industry is the relative value of real estate to other investments.Thanks in part to the Federal Reserve’s hiking campaign, investors have other places to earn money that could generate more yield than in years past and tend to be more liquid than commercial real estate, including Treasuries, investment-grade bonds, and mortgage-backed securities.“Real estate is quite cyclical,” Wharton’s Wachter said. “It’s bad for real estate when rates go up and you can get higher yields from Treasuries and other assets.”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":350,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9962320695,"gmtCreate":1669725892118,"gmtModify":1676538229948,"author":{"id":"4129173637846012","authorId":"4129173637846012","name":"Csd","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c94468b485a22bdb5cf61a9d32169cc0","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9962320695","repostId":"1123801521","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":164,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9968582459,"gmtCreate":1669256287572,"gmtModify":1676538174848,"author":{"id":"4129173637846012","authorId":"4129173637846012","name":"Csd","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c94468b485a22bdb5cf61a9d32169cc0","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9968582459","repostId":"1168042484","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1168042484","pubTimestamp":1669207575,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1168042484?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-11-23 20:46","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla’s Stock Slump Has Gone Too Far, Morgan Stanley Says","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1168042484","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"Shares slumped 52% this year with $300b wipeout in two monthsMorgan Stanley sees value opportunity while Citi upgradesElon Musk.Photographer: Carina Johansen/AFPAfter losing nearly $300 billion in mar","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul><li>Shares slumped 52% this year with $300b wipeout in two months</li><li>Morgan Stanley sees value opportunity while Citi upgrades</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76d786e2fc285c0e8faa9755ba109fa5\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"665\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Elon Musk.Photographer: Carina Johansen/AFP</span></p><p>After losing nearly $300 billion in market value in two months, a growing chorus of Tesla Inc. analysts say the share-price decline has gone far enough.</p><p>Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas said on Wednesday that Tesla is approaching his “bear case” price target of $150, presenting an opportunity for investors to buy at a bargain price. Citi analysts upgraded the shares to neutral from sell, saying that a more than 50% slump this year “has balanced out the near-term risk/reward.”</p><p>Despite challenges including decelerating demand andprice cutsin China, Tesla is the only electric vehicle maker covered by Morgan Stanley that generates a profit on the sale of its cars, Jonas wrote in a note. The analyst -- who also highlighted Tesla’s potential to benefit from consumer tax credits in the US -- reiterated his $330 price target.</p><p>Shares rose as much as 1.9% in premarket trading to $173.11. The stock has slumped this year amid rising raw materials costs,issueswith production and sales in China and pressure on customer budgets. Latterly, Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk’s focus on turning around Twitter Inc. has also hit sentiment, with $300 billion wiped off Tesla’s market cap in the past two months, according to Bloomberg calculations.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28418b2c1e10b82bdeec4788d9133a29\" tg-width=\"1235\" tg-height=\"695\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The distraction caused by Twitter needs to end to stop the stock slide, according to Jonas. “There must be some form of sentiment ‘circuit breaker’ around the Twitter situation to calm investor concerns around Tesla,” he wrote.</p><p>Despite all of the challenges Tesla has faced this year, Wall Street has mainly stayed bullish. The majority of Tesla analysts tracked by Bloomberg rate the stock a buy or equivalent, while the shares would need to rally a whopping 80% to hit the median analyst target price. This year’s slump has left the stock trading at 31 times forward earnings, down from more than 200 times in early 2021.</p><p>Citi analyst Itay Michaeli, who upgraded the stock on Wednesday, has one of the lowest price targets on the Street, at $176. The analyst said he was turning more positive because Tesla’s slump means that some of the overly-bullish expectations in the stock, including on unit sales, have now been priced out.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla’s Stock Slump Has Gone Too Far, Morgan Stanley Says</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla’s Stock Slump Has Gone Too Far, Morgan Stanley Says\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-23 20:46 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-23/tesla-is-value-opportunity-as-it-nears-morgan-stanley-bear-case?srnd=markets-vp><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Shares slumped 52% this year with $300b wipeout in two monthsMorgan Stanley sees value opportunity while Citi upgradesElon Musk.Photographer: Carina Johansen/AFPAfter losing nearly $300 billion in ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-23/tesla-is-value-opportunity-as-it-nears-morgan-stanley-bear-case?srnd=markets-vp\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-23/tesla-is-value-opportunity-as-it-nears-morgan-stanley-bear-case?srnd=markets-vp","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1168042484","content_text":"Shares slumped 52% this year with $300b wipeout in two monthsMorgan Stanley sees value opportunity while Citi upgradesElon Musk.Photographer: Carina Johansen/AFPAfter losing nearly $300 billion in market value in two months, a growing chorus of Tesla Inc. analysts say the share-price decline has gone far enough.Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas said on Wednesday that Tesla is approaching his “bear case” price target of $150, presenting an opportunity for investors to buy at a bargain price. Citi analysts upgraded the shares to neutral from sell, saying that a more than 50% slump this year “has balanced out the near-term risk/reward.”Despite challenges including decelerating demand andprice cutsin China, Tesla is the only electric vehicle maker covered by Morgan Stanley that generates a profit on the sale of its cars, Jonas wrote in a note. The analyst -- who also highlighted Tesla’s potential to benefit from consumer tax credits in the US -- reiterated his $330 price target.Shares rose as much as 1.9% in premarket trading to $173.11. The stock has slumped this year amid rising raw materials costs,issueswith production and sales in China and pressure on customer budgets. Latterly, Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk’s focus on turning around Twitter Inc. has also hit sentiment, with $300 billion wiped off Tesla’s market cap in the past two months, according to Bloomberg calculations.The distraction caused by Twitter needs to end to stop the stock slide, according to Jonas. “There must be some form of sentiment ‘circuit breaker’ around the Twitter situation to calm investor concerns around Tesla,” he wrote.Despite all of the challenges Tesla has faced this year, Wall Street has mainly stayed bullish. The majority of Tesla analysts tracked by Bloomberg rate the stock a buy or equivalent, while the shares would need to rally a whopping 80% to hit the median analyst target price. This year’s slump has left the stock trading at 31 times forward earnings, down from more than 200 times in early 2021.Citi analyst Itay Michaeli, who upgraded the stock on Wednesday, has one of the lowest price targets on the Street, at $176. The analyst said he was turning more positive because Tesla’s slump means that some of the overly-bullish expectations in the stock, including on unit sales, have now been priced out.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":38,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9923622368,"gmtCreate":1670853044954,"gmtModify":1676538446141,"author":{"id":"4129173637846012","authorId":"4129173637846012","name":"Csd","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c94468b485a22bdb5cf61a9d32169cc0","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hmm","listText":"Hmm","text":"Hmm","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9923622368","repostId":"1195161646","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":168,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9966647098,"gmtCreate":1669527977915,"gmtModify":1676538205232,"author":{"id":"4129173637846012","authorId":"4129173637846012","name":"Csd","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c94468b485a22bdb5cf61a9d32169cc0","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9966647098","repostId":"1102414813","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":257,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9966926613,"gmtCreate":1669387985333,"gmtModify":1676538192153,"author":{"id":"4129173637846012","authorId":"4129173637846012","name":"Csd","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c94468b485a22bdb5cf61a9d32169cc0","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9966926613","repostId":"1136499781","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":50,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9968586657,"gmtCreate":1669256080079,"gmtModify":1676538174789,"author":{"id":"4129173637846012","authorId":"4129173637846012","name":"Csd","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c94468b485a22bdb5cf61a9d32169cc0","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanks!","listText":"Thanks!","text":"Thanks!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9968586657","repostId":"1113183258","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":126,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}