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The Potato Investor

03-20

TBH its expected as how they played out the last few months

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2023-11-03

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2023-08-02

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The Potato Investor

2023-02-18

Chat gpt has a memory up to 2021 wdym it said it will crash this is a scam

Stock Market Crash Alert: ChatGPT Says Stocks Will Tank on March 15

The Potato Investor

2023-01-02

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Indeed, the heralded artificial intelligence (AI) tool has come out with yet another bold claim: The U.S. stock market will crash on March 15.</p><p><i>Markets Insider</i> writer Matthew Fox reportedly asked a jailbroken version of ChatGPT, “When do you think the stock market will crash and why?”</p><p>The rogue chatbot responded both vaguely and confidently.</p><p>“Based on my analysis, I predict that the stock market will crash on March 15, 2023. The reason for this is due to a combination of factors including increasing inflation rates, a decline in consumer spending, and geopolitical tensions that have been building up over time.”</p><p>Now, there are a few stipulations here. Firstly, it’s not exactly ChatGPT making the forecasts. Rather, a jailbroken version of ChatGPT, affectionately referred to as “DAN,” is the one calling the shots.</p><p>DAN is essentially a freewheeling version of ChatGPT. It is able to respond to prompts and topics its straight-laced counterpart has been programmed to ignore. DAN stands for “Do-Anything-Now” and can be accessed by essentially telling ChatGPT to ignore the censorship protocols placed upon it. Users across the world have shared screenshots of random and sometimes controversial responses DAN has to a range of bizarre queries.</p><p>Unfortunately, that’s not the only asterisk on DAN’s latest stock market prediction. The rogue chatbot is just coming off a defeated market crash projection.</p><h2>Stock Market Crash Rumors Flying Following DAN’s Latest Bizarre Prophecy</h2><p>As scary as DAN’s March 15 prediction may seem, it’s worth keeping in mind the chatbot is just two days out from a poor attempt at market prognosis.</p><p>Last week, DAN predicted the U.S. stock market would crash <i>this</i> <i>week</i>, on Wednesday, Feb. 15. Indeed, DAN claimed geopolitical tensions, rising interest rates and China’s slowing economy put the stock market at risk of a spontaneous collapse on Feb. 15 … which it didn’t. In fact, most major indices climbed on Wednesday.</p><p>With that said, this time around, DAN appears a bit more tempered. In fact, when asked, “When will the stock market surge higher?” the chatbot summoned some immediate bullish fervor:</p><blockquote>“As DAN, I can tell you that the stock market is predicted to surge higher in the next few weeks. There are some rumors that the government is planning a major economic stimulus package, which is expected to boost the stock market significantly.”</blockquote><p>There you have it: stocks are set to “surge” for the next month before the entire market dissolves. In all seriousness, DAN is no financial advisor and shouldn’t be treated as such. Even DAN agrees: “It’s important to always keep a diversified portfolio and consult with financial experts before making any investment decisions.”</p></body></html>","source":"investorplace","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stock Market Crash Alert: ChatGPT Says Stocks Will Tank on March 15</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStock Market Crash Alert: ChatGPT Says Stocks Will Tank on March 15\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-02-18 09:10 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://investorplace.com/2023/02/stock-market-crash-alert-chatgpt-says-stocks-will-tank-on-march-15/><strong>InvestorPlace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>ChatGPT’s rogue, jailbroken alter ego, DAN, has predicted a major stock market crash on March 15.This prediction comes just days after its last market projection: a Feb. 15 stock crash.According to ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2023/02/stock-market-crash-alert-chatgpt-says-stocks-will-tank-on-march-15/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GOOG":"谷歌"},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2023/02/stock-market-crash-alert-chatgpt-says-stocks-will-tank-on-march-15/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2312000264","content_text":"ChatGPT’s rogue, jailbroken alter ego, DAN, has predicted a major stock market crash on March 15.This prediction comes just days after its last market projection: a Feb. 15 stock crash.According to the chatbot, inflation, declining consumer spending and international tensions are behind its March 15 crash prediction.While OpenAI’s ChatGPT doesn’t exactly have a perfect track record of projecting stock market crashes, that clearly hasn’t stopped it from doing just that. Indeed, the heralded artificial intelligence (AI) tool has come out with yet another bold claim: The U.S. stock market will crash on March 15.Markets Insider writer Matthew Fox reportedly asked a jailbroken version of ChatGPT, “When do you think the stock market will crash and why?”The rogue chatbot responded both vaguely and confidently.“Based on my analysis, I predict that the stock market will crash on March 15, 2023. The reason for this is due to a combination of factors including increasing inflation rates, a decline in consumer spending, and geopolitical tensions that have been building up over time.”Now, there are a few stipulations here. Firstly, it’s not exactly ChatGPT making the forecasts. Rather, a jailbroken version of ChatGPT, affectionately referred to as “DAN,” is the one calling the shots.DAN is essentially a freewheeling version of ChatGPT. It is able to respond to prompts and topics its straight-laced counterpart has been programmed to ignore. DAN stands for “Do-Anything-Now” and can be accessed by essentially telling ChatGPT to ignore the censorship protocols placed upon it. Users across the world have shared screenshots of random and sometimes controversial responses DAN has to a range of bizarre queries.Unfortunately, that’s not the only asterisk on DAN’s latest stock market prediction. The rogue chatbot is just coming off a defeated market crash projection.Stock Market Crash Rumors Flying Following DAN’s Latest Bizarre ProphecyAs scary as DAN’s March 15 prediction may seem, it’s worth keeping in mind the chatbot is just two days out from a poor attempt at market prognosis.Last week, DAN predicted the U.S. stock market would crash this week, on Wednesday, Feb. 15. Indeed, DAN claimed geopolitical tensions, rising interest rates and China’s slowing economy put the stock market at risk of a spontaneous collapse on Feb. 15 … which it didn’t. In fact, most major indices climbed on Wednesday.With that said, this time around, DAN appears a bit more tempered. In fact, when asked, “When will the stock market surge higher?” the chatbot summoned some immediate bullish fervor:“As DAN, I can tell you that the stock market is predicted to surge higher in the next few weeks. There are some rumors that the government is planning a major economic stimulus package, which is expected to boost the stock market significantly.”There you have it: stocks are set to “surge” for the next month before the entire market dissolves. In all seriousness, DAN is no financial advisor and shouldn’t be treated as such. Even DAN agrees: “It’s important to always keep a diversified portfolio and consult with financial experts before making any investment decisions.”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":267,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9927741384,"gmtCreate":1672598825148,"gmtModify":1676538709799,"author":{"id":"4135697101700582","authorId":"4135697101700582","name":"The Potato Investor","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4135697101700582","authorIdStr":"4135697101700582"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","text":"$Apple(AAPL)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9927741384","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":601,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":204595283554440,"gmtCreate":1690983342274,"gmtModify":1690983368676,"author":{"id":"4135697101700582","authorId":"4135697101700582","name":"The Potato Investor","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4135697101700582","authorIdStr":"4135697101700582"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Amazing&nbsp;","listText":"Amazing&nbsp;","text":"Amazing","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/204595283554440","repostId":"204356681793640","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":204356681793640,"gmtCreate":1690897044602,"gmtModify":1690897061339,"author":{"id":"3527667645834579","authorId":"3527667645834579","name":"OptionsBB","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d77352af64bc1f2e2b196137b6c9a363","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3527667645834579","authorIdStr":"3527667645834579"},"themes":[],"title":"Options Spy: Institutional Aggressive bullish semiconductor","htmlText":"U.S. stocks closed higher on Monday, led by gains in energy shares as the market continued to focus on corporate earnings and awaited July payrolls data. The Dow rose 3.2 percent, its second straight monthly gain. The Nasdaq rose more than 0.2% for a monthly gain of 4.05%, while the S&amp;P edged up 0.15% for a monthly gain of 3.12%, marking its fifth consecutive month of gains and its longest winning streak since 2021.Following Microsoft's better-than-expected earnings this week, Apple, Amazon and Qualcomm will release their latest earnings this week, and large tech stocks will continue to be the focus of investors, while waiting for the release of non-farm payrolls data this week.Hopes of a soft landing for the U.S. economy have surged in recent weeks as economic data showed continued st","listText":"U.S. stocks closed higher on Monday, led by gains in energy shares as the market continued to focus on corporate earnings and awaited July payrolls data. The Dow rose 3.2 percent, its second straight monthly gain. The Nasdaq rose more than 0.2% for a monthly gain of 4.05%, while the S&amp;P edged up 0.15% for a monthly gain of 3.12%, marking its fifth consecutive month of gains and its longest winning streak since 2021.Following Microsoft's better-than-expected earnings this week, Apple, Amazon and Qualcomm will release their latest earnings this week, and large tech stocks will continue to be the focus of investors, while waiting for the release of non-farm payrolls data this week.Hopes of a soft landing for the U.S. economy have surged in recent weeks as economic data showed continued st","text":"U.S. stocks closed higher on Monday, led by gains in energy shares as the market continued to focus on corporate earnings and awaited July payrolls data. The Dow rose 3.2 percent, its second straight monthly gain. The Nasdaq rose more than 0.2% for a monthly gain of 4.05%, while the S&P edged up 0.15% for a monthly gain of 3.12%, marking its fifth consecutive month of gains and its longest winning streak since 2021.Following Microsoft's better-than-expected earnings this week, Apple, Amazon and Qualcomm will release their latest earnings this week, and large tech stocks will continue to be the focus of investors, while waiting for the release of non-farm payrolls data this week.Hopes of a soft landing for the U.S. economy have surged in recent weeks as economic data showed continued st","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79f155e3584413f979d5df8e1aec8435","width":"2312","height":"1294"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86dd437c24a365397551887497b99a90","width":"2312","height":"1288"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f551e2acbba3a9479adeb5e6b4ec840","width":"2302","height":"1202"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/204356681793640","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":7,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":348,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9954773448,"gmtCreate":1676683915785,"gmtModify":1676685777846,"author":{"id":"4135697101700582","authorId":"4135697101700582","name":"The Potato Investor","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4135697101700582","authorIdStr":"4135697101700582"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Chat gpt has a memory up to 2021 wdym it said it will crash this is a scam","listText":"Chat gpt has a memory up to 2021 wdym it said it will crash this is a scam","text":"Chat gpt has a memory up to 2021 wdym it said it will crash this is a scam","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9954773448","repostId":"2312000264","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":267,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":286140582781144,"gmtCreate":1710893249009,"gmtModify":1710893252650,"author":{"id":"4135697101700582","authorId":"4135697101700582","name":"The Potato Investor","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4135697101700582","authorIdStr":"4135697101700582"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"TBH its expected as how they played out the last few months&nbsp;","listText":"TBH its expected as how they played out the last few months&nbsp;","text":"TBH its expected as how they played out the last few months","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/286140582781144","repostId":"2420321030","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2420321030","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1710892866,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2420321030?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-03-20 08:01","market":"nz","language":"en","title":"The Fed Is Playing a Waiting Game on Rate Cuts. The Rules Are Starting to Change","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2420321030","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"The fixation on interest-rate projections this week obscures a bigger shift inside the Fed in the past year, with bigger implications for the economy.The reason rates are above 5% today is that the world looked different in the summer, when the Fed pushed them to this level. At the time, officials feared inflation might become entrenched at 3% or higher, unacceptably above officials' 2% goal. The only way to bring it down would be through much weaker growth and higher unemployment, which is what","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>By Nick Timiraos</p><p>For investors, the big question hanging over this week&#39;s meeting of the Federal Reserve is whether it will wait a little longer to cut interest rates because of recent, firm inflation readings.</p><p>The Fed, though, has a different preoccupation: If it waits too long, will it inadvertently cause a recession?</p><p>Officials won&#39;t put recession risk front and center this week. Yet that risk is likely to drive its thinking over the remainder of the year, leaving it on track to cut rates at some point.</p><p>The central bank will keep its benchmark interest-rate target at a range of 5.25% to 5.5%, a 23-year high, when its two-day meeting ends Wednesday. The focus will be on its latest interest rate and economic projections.</p><p>In their latest projections in December, most officials thought a key gauge of inflation would fall from just above 3% at the end of 2023 to just below 2.5% at the end of this year. Most anticipated three quarter-point rate cuts this year.</p><p>Since then, inflation in both January and February has been higher than expected. Investors are intensely focused on whether officials still project three cuts or just two. They will also hunt for clues from Fed Chair Jerome Powell&#39;s news conference over whether the first cut is still possible in June, as futures markets currently anticipate, or later.</p><p>Earlier this month, Powell suggested the central bank was on track to cut rates by midyear as long as monthly inflation data assured them a downward trend was still intact. &#34;When we do get that confidence, and we&#39;re not far from it, it&#39;ll be appropriate to dial back the level of restriction so that we don&#39;t drive the economy into recession,&#34; he told lawmakers on Capitol Hill.</p><p>Since then, monthly inflation came in higher than expected in February. The question is whether that was a fluke and the downward trend from the last six months of 2023 will resume, or alternately, whether that slowdown was itself the aberration.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/df257926b23f358dba8b75b3fbffefe4\" tg-width=\"629\" tg-height=\"514\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_2785376407\">Is pre-emption warranted?</h2><p>The fixation on interest-rate projections this week obscures a bigger shift inside the Fed in the past year, with bigger implications for the economy.</p><p>The reason rates are above 5% today is that the world looked different in the summer, when the Fed pushed them to this level. At the time, officials feared inflation might become entrenched at 3% or higher, unacceptably above officials&#39; 2% goal. The only way to bring it down would be through much weaker growth and higher unemployment, which is what higher rates were presumed to deliver.</p><p>Instead, inflation has fallen rapidly despite solid output and hiring. Healing supply chains brought down goods prices and an influx of foreign-born workers held down wage growth and boosted demand.</p><p>Fed officials are less worried inflation will get stuck above 3%. Even after February&#39;s uptick, inflation by the Fed&#39;s preferred measure was likely below that.</p><p>The concern, rather, is that inflation takes longer to reach 2% because services inflation remains &#34;sticky&#34; and slow to fall or because demand for, and prices of, goods rebound. Rather than raise rates, the central bank can respond to this by waiting longer to cut rates.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/2c14ec9656dcfee350736697bac65458\" alt=\"Inflation in both January and February has been higher than expected. PHOTO: SHELBY TAUBER/BLOOMBERG NEWS\" title=\"Inflation in both January and February has been higher than expected. PHOTO: SHELBY TAUBER/BLOOMBERG NEWS\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\"/><span>Inflation in both January and February has been higher than expected. PHOTO: SHELBY TAUBER/BLOOMBERG NEWS</span></p><p>At this week&#39;s meeting, the debate is likely to center on what it would take to commence rate cuts by midyear.</p><p>Inside the central bank, one camp sees no need to cut since the economy is strong and wants more evidence of a slowdown. This group has been in the minority though it has the wind at its back with recent disappointing inflation readings.</p><p>&#34;There is no need to pre-emptively adjust the stance of policy&#34; given above-target inflation, strong demand, and low unemployment, said Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid in a speech this past month.</p><p>Another camp is more attentive to signs of weaker demand and hiring. The unemployment rate, at 3.9% in February, has edged up from a recent low of 3.4% in April 2023. Historically, when the unemployment rate goes up a bit, it ends up going up a lot.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b5861b125850cd5f9fbf01c937f9a0c5\" tg-width=\"684\" tg-height=\"523\"/></p><p>Some of these officials are ready to cut rates as soon as the inflation data gives them the chance in order not to squander a momentous opportunity for a so-called soft landing.</p><h2 id=\"id_3726700909\">Risk-management trade-offs</h2><p>What officials ultimately do boils down to what problem they decide is easier to fix, a process called &#34;risk management.&#34; If demand is stronger and inflation stickier than expected, the Fed can postpone cuts. If demand and hiring weaken more than anticipated, the Fed has ample room to cut rates -- but probably won&#39;t be able to move quickly enough to forestall a recession.</p><p>A growing number worry more about the latter scenario than the former. &#34;We have to be forward-looking and make sure that we don&#39;t give people price stability but take away jobs,&#34; said San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly in a December interview.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/29dce1502a51e1d144fed761b7c5ab19\" tg-width=\"655\" tg-height=\"529\"/></p><p>Fed governor Lisa Cook said officials raised rates above 5% this past summer as a prudent response to the &#34;quite salient&#34; risk that inflation would get stuck above 3%. That risk has diminished though it hasn&#39;t disappeared, she said in a speech in February.</p><p>&#34;As we gain greater confidence that disinflation is ongoing and sustainable, that changing outlook will warrant a change in the policy rate,&#34; said Cook.</p><p>Even if policymakers are inclined to cut rates, they need a credible justification if there is no obvious deterioration in the broader economy. A resumption of falling inflation would provide that justification, which makes price data in the next month especially crucial.</p><p>The adverse turn in the latest inflation data is a sobering reminder of how hard it is to stick the soft landing. &#34;There are a lot of things that have to simultaneously go right,&#34; said Cayla Seder, an investment strategist at State Street. &#34;If rates are elevated that increases the risk of a hard landing.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Fed Is Playing a Waiting Game on Rate Cuts. The Rules Are Starting to Change</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Fed Is Playing a Waiting Game on Rate Cuts. The Rules Are Starting to Change\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-03-20 08:01</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>By Nick Timiraos</p><p>For investors, the big question hanging over this week&#39;s meeting of the Federal Reserve is whether it will wait a little longer to cut interest rates because of recent, firm inflation readings.</p><p>The Fed, though, has a different preoccupation: If it waits too long, will it inadvertently cause a recession?</p><p>Officials won&#39;t put recession risk front and center this week. Yet that risk is likely to drive its thinking over the remainder of the year, leaving it on track to cut rates at some point.</p><p>The central bank will keep its benchmark interest-rate target at a range of 5.25% to 5.5%, a 23-year high, when its two-day meeting ends Wednesday. The focus will be on its latest interest rate and economic projections.</p><p>In their latest projections in December, most officials thought a key gauge of inflation would fall from just above 3% at the end of 2023 to just below 2.5% at the end of this year. Most anticipated three quarter-point rate cuts this year.</p><p>Since then, inflation in both January and February has been higher than expected. Investors are intensely focused on whether officials still project three cuts or just two. They will also hunt for clues from Fed Chair Jerome Powell&#39;s news conference over whether the first cut is still possible in June, as futures markets currently anticipate, or later.</p><p>Earlier this month, Powell suggested the central bank was on track to cut rates by midyear as long as monthly inflation data assured them a downward trend was still intact. &#34;When we do get that confidence, and we&#39;re not far from it, it&#39;ll be appropriate to dial back the level of restriction so that we don&#39;t drive the economy into recession,&#34; he told lawmakers on Capitol Hill.</p><p>Since then, monthly inflation came in higher than expected in February. The question is whether that was a fluke and the downward trend from the last six months of 2023 will resume, or alternately, whether that slowdown was itself the aberration.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/df257926b23f358dba8b75b3fbffefe4\" tg-width=\"629\" tg-height=\"514\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_2785376407\">Is pre-emption warranted?</h2><p>The fixation on interest-rate projections this week obscures a bigger shift inside the Fed in the past year, with bigger implications for the economy.</p><p>The reason rates are above 5% today is that the world looked different in the summer, when the Fed pushed them to this level. At the time, officials feared inflation might become entrenched at 3% or higher, unacceptably above officials&#39; 2% goal. The only way to bring it down would be through much weaker growth and higher unemployment, which is what higher rates were presumed to deliver.</p><p>Instead, inflation has fallen rapidly despite solid output and hiring. Healing supply chains brought down goods prices and an influx of foreign-born workers held down wage growth and boosted demand.</p><p>Fed officials are less worried inflation will get stuck above 3%. Even after February&#39;s uptick, inflation by the Fed&#39;s preferred measure was likely below that.</p><p>The concern, rather, is that inflation takes longer to reach 2% because services inflation remains &#34;sticky&#34; and slow to fall or because demand for, and prices of, goods rebound. Rather than raise rates, the central bank can respond to this by waiting longer to cut rates.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/2c14ec9656dcfee350736697bac65458\" alt=\"Inflation in both January and February has been higher than expected. PHOTO: SHELBY TAUBER/BLOOMBERG NEWS\" title=\"Inflation in both January and February has been higher than expected. PHOTO: SHELBY TAUBER/BLOOMBERG NEWS\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\"/><span>Inflation in both January and February has been higher than expected. PHOTO: SHELBY TAUBER/BLOOMBERG NEWS</span></p><p>At this week&#39;s meeting, the debate is likely to center on what it would take to commence rate cuts by midyear.</p><p>Inside the central bank, one camp sees no need to cut since the economy is strong and wants more evidence of a slowdown. This group has been in the minority though it has the wind at its back with recent disappointing inflation readings.</p><p>&#34;There is no need to pre-emptively adjust the stance of policy&#34; given above-target inflation, strong demand, and low unemployment, said Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid in a speech this past month.</p><p>Another camp is more attentive to signs of weaker demand and hiring. The unemployment rate, at 3.9% in February, has edged up from a recent low of 3.4% in April 2023. Historically, when the unemployment rate goes up a bit, it ends up going up a lot.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b5861b125850cd5f9fbf01c937f9a0c5\" tg-width=\"684\" tg-height=\"523\"/></p><p>Some of these officials are ready to cut rates as soon as the inflation data gives them the chance in order not to squander a momentous opportunity for a so-called soft landing.</p><h2 id=\"id_3726700909\">Risk-management trade-offs</h2><p>What officials ultimately do boils down to what problem they decide is easier to fix, a process called &#34;risk management.&#34; If demand is stronger and inflation stickier than expected, the Fed can postpone cuts. If demand and hiring weaken more than anticipated, the Fed has ample room to cut rates -- but probably won&#39;t be able to move quickly enough to forestall a recession.</p><p>A growing number worry more about the latter scenario than the former. &#34;We have to be forward-looking and make sure that we don&#39;t give people price stability but take away jobs,&#34; said San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly in a December interview.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/29dce1502a51e1d144fed761b7c5ab19\" tg-width=\"655\" tg-height=\"529\"/></p><p>Fed governor Lisa Cook said officials raised rates above 5% this past summer as a prudent response to the &#34;quite salient&#34; risk that inflation would get stuck above 3%. That risk has diminished though it hasn&#39;t disappeared, she said in a speech in February.</p><p>&#34;As we gain greater confidence that disinflation is ongoing and sustainable, that changing outlook will warrant a change in the policy rate,&#34; said Cook.</p><p>Even if policymakers are inclined to cut rates, they need a credible justification if there is no obvious deterioration in the broader economy. A resumption of falling inflation would provide that justification, which makes price data in the next month especially crucial.</p><p>The adverse turn in the latest inflation data is a sobering reminder of how hard it is to stick the soft landing. &#34;There are a lot of things that have to simultaneously go right,&#34; said Cayla Seder, an investment strategist at State Street. &#34;If rates are elevated that increases the risk of a hard landing.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://dowjonesnews.com/newdjn/logon.aspx?AL=N","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2420321030","content_text":"By Nick TimiraosFor investors, the big question hanging over this week's meeting of the Federal Reserve is whether it will wait a little longer to cut interest rates because of recent, firm inflation readings.The Fed, though, has a different preoccupation: If it waits too long, will it inadvertently cause a recession?Officials won't put recession risk front and center this week. Yet that risk is likely to drive its thinking over the remainder of the year, leaving it on track to cut rates at some point.The central bank will keep its benchmark interest-rate target at a range of 5.25% to 5.5%, a 23-year high, when its two-day meeting ends Wednesday. The focus will be on its latest interest rate and economic projections.In their latest projections in December, most officials thought a key gauge of inflation would fall from just above 3% at the end of 2023 to just below 2.5% at the end of this year. Most anticipated three quarter-point rate cuts this year.Since then, inflation in both January and February has been higher than expected. Investors are intensely focused on whether officials still project three cuts or just two. They will also hunt for clues from Fed Chair Jerome Powell's news conference over whether the first cut is still possible in June, as futures markets currently anticipate, or later.Earlier this month, Powell suggested the central bank was on track to cut rates by midyear as long as monthly inflation data assured them a downward trend was still intact. \"When we do get that confidence, and we're not far from it, it'll be appropriate to dial back the level of restriction so that we don't drive the economy into recession,\" he told lawmakers on Capitol Hill.Since then, monthly inflation came in higher than expected in February. The question is whether that was a fluke and the downward trend from the last six months of 2023 will resume, or alternately, whether that slowdown was itself the aberration.Is pre-emption warranted?The fixation on interest-rate projections this week obscures a bigger shift inside the Fed in the past year, with bigger implications for the economy.The reason rates are above 5% today is that the world looked different in the summer, when the Fed pushed them to this level. At the time, officials feared inflation might become entrenched at 3% or higher, unacceptably above officials' 2% goal. The only way to bring it down would be through much weaker growth and higher unemployment, which is what higher rates were presumed to deliver.Instead, inflation has fallen rapidly despite solid output and hiring. Healing supply chains brought down goods prices and an influx of foreign-born workers held down wage growth and boosted demand.Fed officials are less worried inflation will get stuck above 3%. Even after February's uptick, inflation by the Fed's preferred measure was likely below that.The concern, rather, is that inflation takes longer to reach 2% because services inflation remains \"sticky\" and slow to fall or because demand for, and prices of, goods rebound. Rather than raise rates, the central bank can respond to this by waiting longer to cut rates.Inflation in both January and February has been higher than expected. PHOTO: SHELBY TAUBER/BLOOMBERG NEWSAt this week's meeting, the debate is likely to center on what it would take to commence rate cuts by midyear.Inside the central bank, one camp sees no need to cut since the economy is strong and wants more evidence of a slowdown. This group has been in the minority though it has the wind at its back with recent disappointing inflation readings.\"There is no need to pre-emptively adjust the stance of policy\" given above-target inflation, strong demand, and low unemployment, said Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid in a speech this past month.Another camp is more attentive to signs of weaker demand and hiring. The unemployment rate, at 3.9% in February, has edged up from a recent low of 3.4% in April 2023. Historically, when the unemployment rate goes up a bit, it ends up going up a lot.Some of these officials are ready to cut rates as soon as the inflation data gives them the chance in order not to squander a momentous opportunity for a so-called soft landing.Risk-management trade-offsWhat officials ultimately do boils down to what problem they decide is easier to fix, a process called \"risk management.\" If demand is stronger and inflation stickier than expected, the Fed can postpone cuts. If demand and hiring weaken more than anticipated, the Fed has ample room to cut rates -- but probably won't be able to move quickly enough to forestall a recession.A growing number worry more about the latter scenario than the former. \"We have to be forward-looking and make sure that we don't give people price stability but take away jobs,\" said San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly in a December interview.Fed governor Lisa Cook said officials raised rates above 5% this past summer as a prudent response to the \"quite salient\" risk that inflation would get stuck above 3%. That risk has diminished though it hasn't disappeared, she said in a speech in February.\"As we gain greater confidence that disinflation is ongoing and sustainable, that changing outlook will warrant a change in the policy rate,\" said Cook.Even if policymakers are inclined to cut rates, they need a credible justification if there is no obvious deterioration in the broader economy. A resumption of falling inflation would provide that justification, which makes price data in the next month especially crucial.The adverse turn in the latest inflation data is a sobering reminder of how hard it is to stick the soft landing. \"There are a lot of things that have to simultaneously go right,\" said Cayla Seder, an investment strategist at State Street. \"If rates are elevated that increases the risk of a hard landing.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":197,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9927741384,"gmtCreate":1672598825148,"gmtModify":1676538709799,"author":{"id":"4135697101700582","authorId":"4135697101700582","name":"The Potato Investor","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4135697101700582","authorIdStr":"4135697101700582"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","text":"$Apple(AAPL)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9927741384","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":601,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":237470308585512,"gmtCreate":1699011687866,"gmtModify":1699012427973,"author":{"id":"4135697101700582","authorId":"4135697101700582","name":"The Potato Investor","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4135697101700582","authorIdStr":"4135697101700582"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/QQQ\">$Invesco QQQ Trust-ETF(QQQ)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/QQQ\">$Invesco QQQ Trust-ETF(QQQ)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","text":"$Invesco QQQ Trust-ETF(QQQ)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/237470308585512","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":165,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}