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07-24

The harsh truth is that no one knows what's gonna happen to the market tomorrow.

Nvidia, Super Micro, Broadcom - and 22 Other Stocks Most Likely to Crash

07-12

$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ Future looks bright atleast till the end of 2025 now.

2023-12-24

VIG has same yield as the S&P 500 etf, doesn't make any sense to add that in the portfolio. It will drag the portfolio down during the bear markets and provide less growth. I would rather have S&P 500 etf instead.

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The higher a stock soars, the more likely it is to plunge.The market indicator, known as the \"U.S. Crash Confidence Index,\" was created 40 years ago by Yale University's Robert Shiller and is now maintained by the Yale School of Management. Each month a group of individual and institutional investors are asked, \"What do you think is the probability of a catastrophic stock market crash in the U. S.?\" As with other sentiment measures, this one has contrarian significance: It's a bad sign when investors believe the probability of a crash is particularly low.The researchers found that a survey respondent's belief in a crash's probability was heavily influenced by \"rare, extreme events\" having nothing to do with the stock market. When an earthquake had recently occurred in the respondent's immedia","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>The higher a stock soars, the more likely it is to plunge.</p></blockquote><p>The U.S. stock market is likely to be a below-average performer over the next 24 months, according to an obscure sentiment index - as are 25 high-flying, popular U.S. stocks including Nvidia <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$(NVDA)$</a>, Super Micro Computer <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMCI\">$(SMCI)$</a> and Broadcom <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVGO\">$(AVGO)$</a>.</p><p>The market indicator, known as the &#34;U.S. Crash Confidence Index,&#34; was created 40 years ago by Yale University&#39;s Robert Shiller and is now maintained by the Yale School of Management. Each month a group of individual and institutional investors are asked, &#34;What do you think is the probability of a catastrophic stock market crash in the U. S.?&#34; As with other sentiment measures, this one has contrarian significance: It&#39;s a bad sign when investors believe the probability of a crash is particularly low.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/14f3c700dfbae93bb368924565bad0d8\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"471\"/></p><p>It&#39;s worth noting that Yale reports the index in terms of the percentage of respondents who think the probability of a crash is less than 10%, so higher readings in the chart mean investors think the likelihood of a crash is lower - and vice versa. The six-month moving average of the institutional-investor index recently reached its highest level of the past 15 years, and the individual-investor index reached its second-highest level.</p><p>I analyzed the data back to 2001, which is when Yale began updating the index on a monthly basis. On average, the monthly readings are inversely correlated with the S&amp;P 500&#39;s SPX total return over the subsequent 24 months - meaning that higher index readings are correlated with below-average returns, and vice versa. The correlation is significant at the 95% confidence level for the institutional index and the 93% confidence level for the individual index.</p><h3 id=\"id_3634368013\">Why the Crash Confidence Index is a contrarian indicator</h3><p>The U.S. Crash Confidence Index is a valuable contrarian indicator because stock-market investors become more or less bullish for reasons totally unrelated to the stock market. Since irrational bullishness (as opposed to rational bullishness) will cause stocks on average to be overvalued, it follows that the market tends to struggle in the wake of a widespread belief that a crash is unlikely.</p><p>The role of emotions in the U.S. Crash Confidence Index has been documented in a new study by Shiller, Yale professor William Goetzmann, and Dasol Kim of the U.S. Treasury Department&#39;s Office of Financial Research. Entitled &#34;Emotions and Subjective Crash Beliefs,&#34; the study began circulating in June in academic circles.</p><p>The researchers found that a survey respondent&#39;s belief in a crash&#39;s probability was heavily influenced by &#34;rare, extreme events&#34; having nothing to do with the stock market. When an earthquake had recently occurred in the respondent&#39;s immediate vicinity, for example, belief in a stock-market crash was more likely than for another respondent who had not experienced a nearby earthquake. Similarly, if a winning lottery ticket had been sold from a nearby store, the respondent was less likely to believe a crash was probable than another person for whom that was not the case.</p><h3 id=\"id_939044424\">Emotions and beliefs</h3><blockquote><p>The probability of a stock&#39;s crash increases along with the extent to which trailing two-year return is ahead of the S&amp;P 500.</p></blockquote><p>The contrarian indicator based on the Crash Confidence Index is not itself forecasting that a crash will occur, but simply that the next two years will experience below-average returns. The index reflects investors&#39; emotions and subjective beliefs, which are far different than the objective factors that have a statistically significant ability to forecast a heightened probability of a crash. As I discussed in a recent column, a recent study of those objective factors implies that the odds of a market-wide crash are below average right now.</p><p>But certain individual stocks are still vulnerable to crashing, defined as a 40% drop over the next two years. A recent study found that the probability of a stock&#39;s crash increases along with the extent to which the trailing two-year return is ahead of the S&amp;P 500. When this margin of outperformance is 100 percentage points, for example, the probability of a subsequent crash is close to 50%. When it&#39;s 150 points or more, a crash becomes nearly certain.</p><p>The table below lists the 25 stocks in the S&amp;P 1500 index that have outperformed the S&amp;P 500 over the past two years by more than 200 percentage points, according to FactSet data. Not all of them will crash, of course, but it&#39;s a good bet that an above-average number of them will lose at least 40% over the next two years.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0372715130f84a1516bb0f45741544cd\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"821\"/></p><p></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia, Super Micro, Broadcom - and 22 Other Stocks Most Likely to Crash</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia, Super Micro, Broadcom - and 22 Other Stocks Most Likely to Crash\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-07-23 22:29</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>The higher a stock soars, the more likely it is to plunge.</p></blockquote><p>The U.S. stock market is likely to be a below-average performer over the next 24 months, according to an obscure sentiment index - as are 25 high-flying, popular U.S. stocks including Nvidia <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$(NVDA)$</a>, Super Micro Computer <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMCI\">$(SMCI)$</a> and Broadcom <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVGO\">$(AVGO)$</a>.</p><p>The market indicator, known as the &#34;U.S. Crash Confidence Index,&#34; was created 40 years ago by Yale University&#39;s Robert Shiller and is now maintained by the Yale School of Management. Each month a group of individual and institutional investors are asked, &#34;What do you think is the probability of a catastrophic stock market crash in the U. S.?&#34; As with other sentiment measures, this one has contrarian significance: It&#39;s a bad sign when investors believe the probability of a crash is particularly low.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/14f3c700dfbae93bb368924565bad0d8\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"471\"/></p><p>It&#39;s worth noting that Yale reports the index in terms of the percentage of respondents who think the probability of a crash is less than 10%, so higher readings in the chart mean investors think the likelihood of a crash is lower - and vice versa. The six-month moving average of the institutional-investor index recently reached its highest level of the past 15 years, and the individual-investor index reached its second-highest level.</p><p>I analyzed the data back to 2001, which is when Yale began updating the index on a monthly basis. On average, the monthly readings are inversely correlated with the S&amp;P 500&#39;s SPX total return over the subsequent 24 months - meaning that higher index readings are correlated with below-average returns, and vice versa. The correlation is significant at the 95% confidence level for the institutional index and the 93% confidence level for the individual index.</p><h3 id=\"id_3634368013\">Why the Crash Confidence Index is a contrarian indicator</h3><p>The U.S. Crash Confidence Index is a valuable contrarian indicator because stock-market investors become more or less bullish for reasons totally unrelated to the stock market. Since irrational bullishness (as opposed to rational bullishness) will cause stocks on average to be overvalued, it follows that the market tends to struggle in the wake of a widespread belief that a crash is unlikely.</p><p>The role of emotions in the U.S. Crash Confidence Index has been documented in a new study by Shiller, Yale professor William Goetzmann, and Dasol Kim of the U.S. Treasury Department&#39;s Office of Financial Research. Entitled &#34;Emotions and Subjective Crash Beliefs,&#34; the study began circulating in June in academic circles.</p><p>The researchers found that a survey respondent&#39;s belief in a crash&#39;s probability was heavily influenced by &#34;rare, extreme events&#34; having nothing to do with the stock market. When an earthquake had recently occurred in the respondent&#39;s immediate vicinity, for example, belief in a stock-market crash was more likely than for another respondent who had not experienced a nearby earthquake. Similarly, if a winning lottery ticket had been sold from a nearby store, the respondent was less likely to believe a crash was probable than another person for whom that was not the case.</p><h3 id=\"id_939044424\">Emotions and beliefs</h3><blockquote><p>The probability of a stock&#39;s crash increases along with the extent to which trailing two-year return is ahead of the S&amp;P 500.</p></blockquote><p>The contrarian indicator based on the Crash Confidence Index is not itself forecasting that a crash will occur, but simply that the next two years will experience below-average returns. The index reflects investors&#39; emotions and subjective beliefs, which are far different than the objective factors that have a statistically significant ability to forecast a heightened probability of a crash. As I discussed in a recent column, a recent study of those objective factors implies that the odds of a market-wide crash are below average right now.</p><p>But certain individual stocks are still vulnerable to crashing, defined as a 40% drop over the next two years. A recent study found that the probability of a stock&#39;s crash increases along with the extent to which the trailing two-year return is ahead of the S&amp;P 500. When this margin of outperformance is 100 percentage points, for example, the probability of a subsequent crash is close to 50%. When it&#39;s 150 points or more, a crash becomes nearly certain.</p><p>The table below lists the 25 stocks in the S&amp;P 1500 index that have outperformed the S&amp;P 500 over the past two years by more than 200 percentage points, according to FactSet data. Not all of them will crash, of course, but it&#39;s a good bet that an above-average number of them will lose at least 40% over the next two years.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0372715130f84a1516bb0f45741544cd\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"821\"/></p><p></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0079474960.USD":"联博美国增长基金A","GB00BDT5M118.USD":"天利环球扩展Alpha基金A Acc","BK4170":"电脑硬件、储存设备及电脑周边","LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","LU0048584097.USD":"FIDELITY FUNDS  GLOBAL THEMATIC OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) INC","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","IE00BKDWB100.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5H\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU1861220033.SGD":"Blackrock Next Generation Technology A2 SGD-H","LU0320765646.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Income A MDIS SGD-H1","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","IE00BDRTCR15.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"ADC\" (USD) INC A","SMCI":"超微电脑","IE0004445015.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (USD) ACC","NVDA":"英伟达","IE0005OL40V9.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A6M\" (USD) INC","AVGO":"博通","LU0965509010.AUD":"AB LOW VOLATILITY EQUITY PORTFOLIO \"AD\" (AUDHDG) INC","IE00BBT3K403.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE TACTICAL DIVIDEND INCOME \"A(USD) ACC","IE0004091025.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES \"B\" (USD) ACC","SPY":"标普500ETF","IE00B19Z8X17.USD":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE US LARGE CAP GROWTH  \"AG\" (USD) ACC","LU0466842654.USD":"HSBC ISLAMIC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0965508806.USD":"AB LOW VOLATILITY EQUITY PORTFOLIO \"AD\" (USD) INC","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","LU0096364046.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN \"DU\" (USD) ACC","IE00B1BXHZ80.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Appreciation A Acc USD","IE00BMPRXQ63.HKD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN NEXT GENERATION CONNECTIVITY FUND \"A\" (HKDHDG) ACC","LU0868494617.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - US TOTAL YIELD SUSTAINABLE \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU0053671581.USD":"摩根大通美国小盘成长股 A(dist)","LU0820561818.USD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金Cl AM DIS","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","OEX":"标普100","LU0444971666.USD":"天利全球科技基金","IE00BLSP4239.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Tactical Dividend Income A Mdis USD Plus","VOO":"Vanguard标普500ETF","IE0004086264.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0943347566.SGD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金AM H2-SGD","LU0957808578.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"ZU\" (USD) ACC","LU1861215975.USD":"贝莱德新一代科技基金 A2","IE0034235295.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00B894F039.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Aggressive Growth A Acc SGD-H","LU0109392836.USD":"富兰克林科技股A","IE0004445239.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON US FORTY \"A2\" (USD) ACC"},"source_url":"https://dowjonesnews.com/newdjn/logon.aspx?AL=N","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2453076978","content_text":"The higher a stock soars, the more likely it is to plunge.The U.S. stock market is likely to be a below-average performer over the next 24 months, according to an obscure sentiment index - as are 25 high-flying, popular U.S. stocks including Nvidia $(NVDA)$, Super Micro Computer $(SMCI)$ and Broadcom $(AVGO)$.The market indicator, known as the \"U.S. Crash Confidence Index,\" was created 40 years ago by Yale University's Robert Shiller and is now maintained by the Yale School of Management. Each month a group of individual and institutional investors are asked, \"What do you think is the probability of a catastrophic stock market crash in the U. S.?\" As with other sentiment measures, this one has contrarian significance: It's a bad sign when investors believe the probability of a crash is particularly low.It's worth noting that Yale reports the index in terms of the percentage of respondents who think the probability of a crash is less than 10%, so higher readings in the chart mean investors think the likelihood of a crash is lower - and vice versa. The six-month moving average of the institutional-investor index recently reached its highest level of the past 15 years, and the individual-investor index reached its second-highest level.I analyzed the data back to 2001, which is when Yale began updating the index on a monthly basis. On average, the monthly readings are inversely correlated with the S&P 500's SPX total return over the subsequent 24 months - meaning that higher index readings are correlated with below-average returns, and vice versa. The correlation is significant at the 95% confidence level for the institutional index and the 93% confidence level for the individual index.Why the Crash Confidence Index is a contrarian indicatorThe U.S. Crash Confidence Index is a valuable contrarian indicator because stock-market investors become more or less bullish for reasons totally unrelated to the stock market. Since irrational bullishness (as opposed to rational bullishness) will cause stocks on average to be overvalued, it follows that the market tends to struggle in the wake of a widespread belief that a crash is unlikely.The role of emotions in the U.S. Crash Confidence Index has been documented in a new study by Shiller, Yale professor William Goetzmann, and Dasol Kim of the U.S. Treasury Department's Office of Financial Research. Entitled \"Emotions and Subjective Crash Beliefs,\" the study began circulating in June in academic circles.The researchers found that a survey respondent's belief in a crash's probability was heavily influenced by \"rare, extreme events\" having nothing to do with the stock market. When an earthquake had recently occurred in the respondent's immediate vicinity, for example, belief in a stock-market crash was more likely than for another respondent who had not experienced a nearby earthquake. Similarly, if a winning lottery ticket had been sold from a nearby store, the respondent was less likely to believe a crash was probable than another person for whom that was not the case.Emotions and beliefsThe probability of a stock's crash increases along with the extent to which trailing two-year return is ahead of the S&P 500.The contrarian indicator based on the Crash Confidence Index is not itself forecasting that a crash will occur, but simply that the next two years will experience below-average returns. The index reflects investors' emotions and subjective beliefs, which are far different than the objective factors that have a statistically significant ability to forecast a heightened probability of a crash. As I discussed in a recent column, a recent study of those objective factors implies that the odds of a market-wide crash are below average right now.But certain individual stocks are still vulnerable to crashing, defined as a 40% drop over the next two years. A recent study found that the probability of a stock's crash increases along with the extent to which the trailing two-year return is ahead of the S&P 500. When this margin of outperformance is 100 percentage points, for example, the probability of a subsequent crash is close to 50%. When it's 150 points or more, a crash becomes nearly certain.The table below lists the 25 stocks in the S&P 1500 index that have outperformed the S&P 500 over the past two years by more than 200 percentage points, according to FactSet data. Not all of them will crash, of course, but it's a good bet that an above-average number of them will lose at least 40% over the next two years.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":125,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":326522154143816,"gmtCreate":1720741371222,"gmtModify":1720748104512,"author":{"id":"4152492245948462","authorId":"4152492245948462","name":"Kbros","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4152492245948462","authorIdStr":"4152492245948462"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$</a> Future looks bright atleast till the end of 2025 now.","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$</a> Future looks bright atleast till the end of 2025 now.","text":"$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ Future looks bright atleast till the end of 2025 now.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/326522154143816","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":131,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":255415074173176,"gmtCreate":1703370870130,"gmtModify":1703378520639,"author":{"id":"4152492245948462","authorId":"4152492245948462","name":"Kbros","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4152492245948462","authorIdStr":"4152492245948462"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"VIG has same yield as the S&amp;P 500 etf, doesn't make any sense to add that in the portfolio. It will drag the portfolio down during the bear markets and provide less growth. I would rather have S&amp;P 500 etf instead.","listText":"VIG has same yield as the S&amp;P 500 etf, doesn't make any sense to add that in the portfolio. It will drag the portfolio down during the bear markets and provide less growth. I would rather have S&amp;P 500 etf instead.","text":"VIG has same yield as the S&P 500 etf, doesn't make any sense to add that in the portfolio. It will drag the portfolio down during the bear markets and provide less growth. I would rather have S&P 500 etf instead.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/255415074173176","repostId":"2393479103","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":347,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":330912997748904,"gmtCreate":1721797134178,"gmtModify":1721799670223,"author":{"id":"4152492245948462","authorId":"4152492245948462","name":"Kbros","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4152492245948462","authorIdStr":"4152492245948462"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"The harsh truth is that no one knows what's gonna happen to the market tomorrow.","listText":"The harsh truth is that no one knows what's gonna happen to the market tomorrow.","text":"The harsh truth is that no one knows what's gonna happen to the market tomorrow.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/330912997748904","repostId":"2453076978","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2453076978","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1721744979,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2453076978?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-07-23 22:29","market":"other","language":"en","title":"Nvidia, Super Micro, Broadcom - and 22 Other Stocks Most Likely to Crash","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2453076978","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"It's a bad sign when investors believe the probability of a crash is particularly low - like now. The higher a stock soars, the more likely it is to plunge.The market indicator, known as the \"U.S. Crash Confidence Index,\" was created 40 years ago by Yale University's Robert Shiller and is now maintained by the Yale School of Management. Each month a group of individual and institutional investors are asked, \"What do you think is the probability of a catastrophic stock market crash in the U. S.?\" As with other sentiment measures, this one has contrarian significance: It's a bad sign when investors believe the probability of a crash is particularly low.The researchers found that a survey respondent's belief in a crash's probability was heavily influenced by \"rare, extreme events\" having nothing to do with the stock market. When an earthquake had recently occurred in the respondent's immedia","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>The higher a stock soars, the more likely it is to plunge.</p></blockquote><p>The U.S. stock market is likely to be a below-average performer over the next 24 months, according to an obscure sentiment index - as are 25 high-flying, popular U.S. stocks including Nvidia <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$(NVDA)$</a>, Super Micro Computer <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMCI\">$(SMCI)$</a> and Broadcom <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVGO\">$(AVGO)$</a>.</p><p>The market indicator, known as the &#34;U.S. Crash Confidence Index,&#34; was created 40 years ago by Yale University&#39;s Robert Shiller and is now maintained by the Yale School of Management. Each month a group of individual and institutional investors are asked, &#34;What do you think is the probability of a catastrophic stock market crash in the U. S.?&#34; As with other sentiment measures, this one has contrarian significance: It&#39;s a bad sign when investors believe the probability of a crash is particularly low.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/14f3c700dfbae93bb368924565bad0d8\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"471\"/></p><p>It&#39;s worth noting that Yale reports the index in terms of the percentage of respondents who think the probability of a crash is less than 10%, so higher readings in the chart mean investors think the likelihood of a crash is lower - and vice versa. The six-month moving average of the institutional-investor index recently reached its highest level of the past 15 years, and the individual-investor index reached its second-highest level.</p><p>I analyzed the data back to 2001, which is when Yale began updating the index on a monthly basis. On average, the monthly readings are inversely correlated with the S&amp;P 500&#39;s SPX total return over the subsequent 24 months - meaning that higher index readings are correlated with below-average returns, and vice versa. The correlation is significant at the 95% confidence level for the institutional index and the 93% confidence level for the individual index.</p><h3 id=\"id_3634368013\">Why the Crash Confidence Index is a contrarian indicator</h3><p>The U.S. Crash Confidence Index is a valuable contrarian indicator because stock-market investors become more or less bullish for reasons totally unrelated to the stock market. Since irrational bullishness (as opposed to rational bullishness) will cause stocks on average to be overvalued, it follows that the market tends to struggle in the wake of a widespread belief that a crash is unlikely.</p><p>The role of emotions in the U.S. Crash Confidence Index has been documented in a new study by Shiller, Yale professor William Goetzmann, and Dasol Kim of the U.S. Treasury Department&#39;s Office of Financial Research. Entitled &#34;Emotions and Subjective Crash Beliefs,&#34; the study began circulating in June in academic circles.</p><p>The researchers found that a survey respondent&#39;s belief in a crash&#39;s probability was heavily influenced by &#34;rare, extreme events&#34; having nothing to do with the stock market. When an earthquake had recently occurred in the respondent&#39;s immediate vicinity, for example, belief in a stock-market crash was more likely than for another respondent who had not experienced a nearby earthquake. Similarly, if a winning lottery ticket had been sold from a nearby store, the respondent was less likely to believe a crash was probable than another person for whom that was not the case.</p><h3 id=\"id_939044424\">Emotions and beliefs</h3><blockquote><p>The probability of a stock&#39;s crash increases along with the extent to which trailing two-year return is ahead of the S&amp;P 500.</p></blockquote><p>The contrarian indicator based on the Crash Confidence Index is not itself forecasting that a crash will occur, but simply that the next two years will experience below-average returns. The index reflects investors&#39; emotions and subjective beliefs, which are far different than the objective factors that have a statistically significant ability to forecast a heightened probability of a crash. As I discussed in a recent column, a recent study of those objective factors implies that the odds of a market-wide crash are below average right now.</p><p>But certain individual stocks are still vulnerable to crashing, defined as a 40% drop over the next two years. A recent study found that the probability of a stock&#39;s crash increases along with the extent to which the trailing two-year return is ahead of the S&amp;P 500. When this margin of outperformance is 100 percentage points, for example, the probability of a subsequent crash is close to 50%. When it&#39;s 150 points or more, a crash becomes nearly certain.</p><p>The table below lists the 25 stocks in the S&amp;P 1500 index that have outperformed the S&amp;P 500 over the past two years by more than 200 percentage points, according to FactSet data. Not all of them will crash, of course, but it&#39;s a good bet that an above-average number of them will lose at least 40% over the next two years.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0372715130f84a1516bb0f45741544cd\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"821\"/></p><p></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia, Super Micro, Broadcom - and 22 Other Stocks Most Likely to Crash</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia, Super Micro, Broadcom - and 22 Other Stocks Most Likely to Crash\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-07-23 22:29</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>The higher a stock soars, the more likely it is to plunge.</p></blockquote><p>The U.S. stock market is likely to be a below-average performer over the next 24 months, according to an obscure sentiment index - as are 25 high-flying, popular U.S. stocks including Nvidia <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$(NVDA)$</a>, Super Micro Computer <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMCI\">$(SMCI)$</a> and Broadcom <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVGO\">$(AVGO)$</a>.</p><p>The market indicator, known as the &#34;U.S. Crash Confidence Index,&#34; was created 40 years ago by Yale University&#39;s Robert Shiller and is now maintained by the Yale School of Management. Each month a group of individual and institutional investors are asked, &#34;What do you think is the probability of a catastrophic stock market crash in the U. S.?&#34; As with other sentiment measures, this one has contrarian significance: It&#39;s a bad sign when investors believe the probability of a crash is particularly low.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/14f3c700dfbae93bb368924565bad0d8\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"471\"/></p><p>It&#39;s worth noting that Yale reports the index in terms of the percentage of respondents who think the probability of a crash is less than 10%, so higher readings in the chart mean investors think the likelihood of a crash is lower - and vice versa. The six-month moving average of the institutional-investor index recently reached its highest level of the past 15 years, and the individual-investor index reached its second-highest level.</p><p>I analyzed the data back to 2001, which is when Yale began updating the index on a monthly basis. On average, the monthly readings are inversely correlated with the S&amp;P 500&#39;s SPX total return over the subsequent 24 months - meaning that higher index readings are correlated with below-average returns, and vice versa. The correlation is significant at the 95% confidence level for the institutional index and the 93% confidence level for the individual index.</p><h3 id=\"id_3634368013\">Why the Crash Confidence Index is a contrarian indicator</h3><p>The U.S. Crash Confidence Index is a valuable contrarian indicator because stock-market investors become more or less bullish for reasons totally unrelated to the stock market. Since irrational bullishness (as opposed to rational bullishness) will cause stocks on average to be overvalued, it follows that the market tends to struggle in the wake of a widespread belief that a crash is unlikely.</p><p>The role of emotions in the U.S. Crash Confidence Index has been documented in a new study by Shiller, Yale professor William Goetzmann, and Dasol Kim of the U.S. Treasury Department&#39;s Office of Financial Research. Entitled &#34;Emotions and Subjective Crash Beliefs,&#34; the study began circulating in June in academic circles.</p><p>The researchers found that a survey respondent&#39;s belief in a crash&#39;s probability was heavily influenced by &#34;rare, extreme events&#34; having nothing to do with the stock market. When an earthquake had recently occurred in the respondent&#39;s immediate vicinity, for example, belief in a stock-market crash was more likely than for another respondent who had not experienced a nearby earthquake. Similarly, if a winning lottery ticket had been sold from a nearby store, the respondent was less likely to believe a crash was probable than another person for whom that was not the case.</p><h3 id=\"id_939044424\">Emotions and beliefs</h3><blockquote><p>The probability of a stock&#39;s crash increases along with the extent to which trailing two-year return is ahead of the S&amp;P 500.</p></blockquote><p>The contrarian indicator based on the Crash Confidence Index is not itself forecasting that a crash will occur, but simply that the next two years will experience below-average returns. The index reflects investors&#39; emotions and subjective beliefs, which are far different than the objective factors that have a statistically significant ability to forecast a heightened probability of a crash. As I discussed in a recent column, a recent study of those objective factors implies that the odds of a market-wide crash are below average right now.</p><p>But certain individual stocks are still vulnerable to crashing, defined as a 40% drop over the next two years. A recent study found that the probability of a stock&#39;s crash increases along with the extent to which the trailing two-year return is ahead of the S&amp;P 500. When this margin of outperformance is 100 percentage points, for example, the probability of a subsequent crash is close to 50%. When it&#39;s 150 points or more, a crash becomes nearly certain.</p><p>The table below lists the 25 stocks in the S&amp;P 1500 index that have outperformed the S&amp;P 500 over the past two years by more than 200 percentage points, according to FactSet data. Not all of them will crash, of course, but it&#39;s a good bet that an above-average number of them will lose at least 40% over the next two years.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0372715130f84a1516bb0f45741544cd\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"821\"/></p><p></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0079474960.USD":"联博美国增长基金A","GB00BDT5M118.USD":"天利环球扩展Alpha基金A Acc","BK4170":"电脑硬件、储存设备及电脑周边","LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","LU0048584097.USD":"FIDELITY FUNDS  GLOBAL THEMATIC OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) INC","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","IE00BKDWB100.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5H\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU1861220033.SGD":"Blackrock Next Generation Technology A2 SGD-H","LU0320765646.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Income A MDIS SGD-H1","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","IE00BDRTCR15.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"ADC\" (USD) INC A","SMCI":"超微电脑","IE0004445015.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (USD) ACC","NVDA":"英伟达","IE0005OL40V9.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A6M\" (USD) INC","AVGO":"博通","LU0965509010.AUD":"AB LOW VOLATILITY EQUITY PORTFOLIO \"AD\" (AUDHDG) INC","IE00BBT3K403.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE TACTICAL DIVIDEND INCOME \"A(USD) ACC","IE0004091025.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES \"B\" (USD) ACC","SPY":"标普500ETF","IE00B19Z8X17.USD":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE US LARGE CAP GROWTH  \"AG\" (USD) ACC","LU0466842654.USD":"HSBC ISLAMIC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0965508806.USD":"AB LOW VOLATILITY EQUITY PORTFOLIO \"AD\" (USD) INC","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","LU0096364046.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN \"DU\" (USD) ACC","IE00B1BXHZ80.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Appreciation A Acc USD","IE00BMPRXQ63.HKD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN NEXT GENERATION CONNECTIVITY FUND \"A\" (HKDHDG) ACC","LU0868494617.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - US TOTAL YIELD SUSTAINABLE \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU0053671581.USD":"摩根大通美国小盘成长股 A(dist)","LU0820561818.USD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金Cl AM DIS","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","OEX":"标普100","LU0444971666.USD":"天利全球科技基金","IE00BLSP4239.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Tactical Dividend Income A Mdis USD Plus","VOO":"Vanguard标普500ETF","IE0004086264.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0943347566.SGD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金AM H2-SGD","LU0957808578.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"ZU\" (USD) ACC","LU1861215975.USD":"贝莱德新一代科技基金 A2","IE0034235295.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00B894F039.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Aggressive Growth A Acc SGD-H","LU0109392836.USD":"富兰克林科技股A","IE0004445239.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON US FORTY \"A2\" (USD) ACC"},"source_url":"https://dowjonesnews.com/newdjn/logon.aspx?AL=N","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2453076978","content_text":"The higher a stock soars, the more likely it is to plunge.The U.S. stock market is likely to be a below-average performer over the next 24 months, according to an obscure sentiment index - as are 25 high-flying, popular U.S. stocks including Nvidia $(NVDA)$, Super Micro Computer $(SMCI)$ and Broadcom $(AVGO)$.The market indicator, known as the \"U.S. Crash Confidence Index,\" was created 40 years ago by Yale University's Robert Shiller and is now maintained by the Yale School of Management. Each month a group of individual and institutional investors are asked, \"What do you think is the probability of a catastrophic stock market crash in the U. S.?\" As with other sentiment measures, this one has contrarian significance: It's a bad sign when investors believe the probability of a crash is particularly low.It's worth noting that Yale reports the index in terms of the percentage of respondents who think the probability of a crash is less than 10%, so higher readings in the chart mean investors think the likelihood of a crash is lower - and vice versa. The six-month moving average of the institutional-investor index recently reached its highest level of the past 15 years, and the individual-investor index reached its second-highest level.I analyzed the data back to 2001, which is when Yale began updating the index on a monthly basis. On average, the monthly readings are inversely correlated with the S&P 500's SPX total return over the subsequent 24 months - meaning that higher index readings are correlated with below-average returns, and vice versa. The correlation is significant at the 95% confidence level for the institutional index and the 93% confidence level for the individual index.Why the Crash Confidence Index is a contrarian indicatorThe U.S. Crash Confidence Index is a valuable contrarian indicator because stock-market investors become more or less bullish for reasons totally unrelated to the stock market. Since irrational bullishness (as opposed to rational bullishness) will cause stocks on average to be overvalued, it follows that the market tends to struggle in the wake of a widespread belief that a crash is unlikely.The role of emotions in the U.S. Crash Confidence Index has been documented in a new study by Shiller, Yale professor William Goetzmann, and Dasol Kim of the U.S. Treasury Department's Office of Financial Research. Entitled \"Emotions and Subjective Crash Beliefs,\" the study began circulating in June in academic circles.The researchers found that a survey respondent's belief in a crash's probability was heavily influenced by \"rare, extreme events\" having nothing to do with the stock market. When an earthquake had recently occurred in the respondent's immediate vicinity, for example, belief in a stock-market crash was more likely than for another respondent who had not experienced a nearby earthquake. Similarly, if a winning lottery ticket had been sold from a nearby store, the respondent was less likely to believe a crash was probable than another person for whom that was not the case.Emotions and beliefsThe probability of a stock's crash increases along with the extent to which trailing two-year return is ahead of the S&P 500.The contrarian indicator based on the Crash Confidence Index is not itself forecasting that a crash will occur, but simply that the next two years will experience below-average returns. The index reflects investors' emotions and subjective beliefs, which are far different than the objective factors that have a statistically significant ability to forecast a heightened probability of a crash. As I discussed in a recent column, a recent study of those objective factors implies that the odds of a market-wide crash are below average right now.But certain individual stocks are still vulnerable to crashing, defined as a 40% drop over the next two years. A recent study found that the probability of a stock's crash increases along with the extent to which the trailing two-year return is ahead of the S&P 500. When this margin of outperformance is 100 percentage points, for example, the probability of a subsequent crash is close to 50%. When it's 150 points or more, a crash becomes nearly certain.The table below lists the 25 stocks in the S&P 1500 index that have outperformed the S&P 500 over the past two years by more than 200 percentage points, according to FactSet data. Not all of them will crash, of course, but it's a good bet that an above-average number of them will lose at least 40% over the next two years.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":125,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":326522154143816,"gmtCreate":1720741371222,"gmtModify":1720748104512,"author":{"id":"4152492245948462","authorId":"4152492245948462","name":"Kbros","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4152492245948462","authorIdStr":"4152492245948462"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$</a> Future looks bright atleast till the end of 2025 now.","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$</a> Future looks bright atleast till the end of 2025 now.","text":"$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ Future looks bright atleast till the end of 2025 now.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/326522154143816","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":131,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":255415074173176,"gmtCreate":1703370870130,"gmtModify":1703378520639,"author":{"id":"4152492245948462","authorId":"4152492245948462","name":"Kbros","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4152492245948462","authorIdStr":"4152492245948462"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"VIG has same yield as the S&amp;P 500 etf, doesn't make any sense to add that in the portfolio. It will drag the portfolio down during the bear markets and provide less growth. I would rather have S&amp;P 500 etf instead.","listText":"VIG has same yield as the S&amp;P 500 etf, doesn't make any sense to add that in the portfolio. It will drag the portfolio down during the bear markets and provide less growth. I would rather have S&amp;P 500 etf instead.","text":"VIG has same yield as the S&P 500 etf, doesn't make any sense to add that in the portfolio. It will drag the portfolio down during the bear markets and provide less growth. I would rather have S&P 500 etf instead.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/255415074173176","repostId":"2393479103","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2393479103","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1703365200,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2393479103?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-12-24 05:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Strategically Building A $50,000 Dividend Portfolio With Only 3 ETFs And 3 Stocks","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2393479103","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Many investors lack the time to meticulously select a wide range of individual companies. However, this is a crucial step in achieving an extensive portfolio diversification and reduced risk levels.Th","content":"<html><body><ul><li>Many investors lack the time to meticulously select a wide range of individual companies. However, this is a crucial step in achieving an extensive portfolio diversification and reduced risk levels.</li><li>Therefore, in today’s article, I will show you how you could allocate the amount of $50,000 among three ETFs as well as three individual companies.</li><li>This dividend portfolio serves as a buy-and-hold portfolio. It provides investors with an extensive diversification across companies and sectors, securing a diminished risk profile for the portfolio.</li><li>At the same time, the portfolio provides you with an appealing 5 Year Weighted Average Dividend Growth Rate [CAGR] of 9.31%, indicating strong dividend growth prospects.</li></ul><p><figure><picture> <img height=\"1025px\" loading=\"lazy\" sizes=\"(max-width: 768px) calc(100vw - 36px), (max-width: 1024px) calc(100vw - 132px), (max-width: 1200px) calc(66.6vw - 72px), 600px\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1226730172/image_1226730172.jpg?io=getty-c-w750\" srcset=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1226730172/image_1226730172.jpg?io=getty-c-w1536 1536w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1226730172/image_1226730172.jpg?io=getty-c-w1280 1280w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1226730172/image_1226730172.jpg?io=getty-c-w1080 1080w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1226730172/image_1226730172.jpg?io=getty-c-w750 750w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1226730172/image_1226730172.jpg?io=getty-c-w640 640w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1226730172/image_1226730172.jpg?io=getty-c-w480 480w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1226730172/image_1226730172.jpg?io=getty-c-w320 320w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1226730172/image_1226730172.jpg?io=getty-c-w240 240w\" width=\"1536px\"/> </picture><figcaption> <p>William_Potter</p></figcaption></figure></p> <h2><strong>Investment Thesis</strong></h2> <p>Not all investors have the time and willingness to build a portfolio that consists of an extensive number of companies to ensure a good level of diversification. Doing so implies a diminished risk-profile for your portfolio and<span> an elevated chance of favorable investment results.</span></p> <p>For this reason, in today’s article, I will present you with a diversified dividend portfolio that consists of just three ETFs and three individual companies.</p> <p>I will demonstrate how you could allocate the amount of $50,000 among these three ETFs and three individual companies to invest with a relatively low level of risk, targeting positive investment returns with a significant chance of success.</p> <p>This portfolio combines dividend income with dividend growth, reaching a Weighted Average Dividend Yield [TTM] of 2.92% and a 5 Year Weighted Average Dividend Growth Rate [CAGR] of 9.31%.</p> <p>These numbers indicate that this dividend portfolio is most suitable for younger investors with a long-investment horizon. This is due to the fact that they can benefit in particular from the strong dividend growth rates that the portfolio provides them with.</p> <p>Part of today’s dividend portfolio are three ETFs, each comprising 30% of the total investment portfolio:</p> <ul> <li>Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF (SCHD)</li> <li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EEMA\">iShares</a> Select Dividend ETF (DVY)</li> <li>Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF (VIG)</li> </ul> <p>The following individual companies are also part of this dividend portfolio, each holding a proportion of 3.33%:</p> <ul> <li>Apple (AAPL)</li> <li>BlackRock (BLK)</li> <li>Johnson &amp; Johnson (JNJ)</li> </ul> <p>I will demonstrate how this dividend portfolio achieves extensive diversification across companies and sectors, even when distributing the three ETFs (SCHD, DVY and VIG) across their respective companies and sectors.</p> <p>Moreover, I will show you that the portfolio reaches a relatively low company-specific allocation risk: only Apple, BlackRock and Johnson &amp; Johnson, which all have an attractive risk/reward profile from my point of view, hold a proportion of more than 2.3% of the overall investment portfolio.</p> <h2><strong>Overview of the 3 Selected ETFs and 3 Individual Companies That Are Part of This Dividend Portfolio</strong></h2> <span><span><span></span><table> <tr> <td><p><strong>Symbol</strong></p></td> <td><p><strong>Name</strong></p></td> <td><p><strong>Sector</strong></p></td> <td><p><strong>Industry</strong></p></td> <td><p><strong>Country</strong></p></td> <td><p><strong>Dividend Yield [TTM]</strong></p></td> <td><p><strong>Dividend Growth 5 Yr [CAGR]</strong></p></td> <td><p><strong>Allocation</strong></p></td> <td><p><strong>Amount in $</strong></p></td> </tr> <tr> <td><p>SCHD</p></td> <td><p>Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF</p></td> <td><p>ETF</p></td> <td><p>ETF</p></td> <td><p>United States</p></td> <td><p>3.52%</p></td> <td><p>13.05%</p></td> <td><p>30%</p></td> <td><p>15,000</p></td> </tr> <tr> <td><p>DVY</p></td> <td><p>iShares Select Dividend ETF</p></td> <td><p>ETF</p></td> <td><p>ETF</p></td> <td><p>United States</p></td> <td><p>3.68%</p></td> <td><p>5.95%</p></td> <td><p>30%</p></td> <td><p>15,000</p></td> </tr> <tr> <td><p>VIG</p></td> <td><p>Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF</p></td> <td><p>ETF</p></td> <td><p>ETF</p></td> <td><p>United States</p></td> <td><p>1.86%</p></td> <td><p>9.52%</p></td> <td><p>30%</p></td> <td><p>15,000</p></td> </tr> <tr> <td><p>AAPL</p></td> <td><p>Apple</p></td> <td><p>Information Technology</p></td> <td><p>Technology Hardware, Storage and Peripherals</p></td> <td><p>United States</p></td> <td><p>0.48%</p></td> <td><p>6.15%</p></td> <td><p>3.33%</p></td> <td><p>1,666.66</p></td> </tr> <tr> <td><p>BLK</p></td> <td><p>BlackRock</p></td> <td><p>Financials</p></td> <td><p>Asset Management and Custody Banks</p></td> <td><p>United States</p></td> <td><p>2.51%</p></td> <td><p>10.72%</p></td> <td><p>3.33%</p></td> <td><p>1,666.66</p></td> </tr> <tr> <td><p>JNJ</p></td> <td><p>Johnson &amp; Johnson</p></td> <td><p>Health Care</p></td> <td><p>Pharmaceuticals</p></td> <td><p>United States</p></td> <td><p>3.02%</p></td> <td><p>5.83%</p></td> <td><p>3.33%</p></td> <td><p>1,666.66</p></td> </tr> <tr> <td> </td> <td> </td> <td> </td> <td> </td> <td> </td> <td><p><strong>Average: 2.92%</strong></p></td> <td><p><strong>Average: 9.31%</strong></p></td> <td><p><strong>Sum: 100% </strong></p></td> <td><p><strong>Sum: 50,000</strong></p></td> </tr> </table> <span></span></span><button><svg viewbox=\"0 0 16 16\" xmlns=\"http://www.w3.org/2000/svg\"><path clip-rule=\"evenodd\" d=\"M16 11a5 5 0 0 1-5 5H5a5 5 0 0 1-5-5V5a5 5 0 0 1 5-5h6a5 5 0 0 1 5 5v6zm-4.5-2.5h2v-6h-6v2h4v4zm-9-1h2v4h4v2h-6v-6z\" fill-rule=\"evenodd\"></path></svg>Click to enlarge</button></span> <p>Source: The Author, data from Seeking Alpha</p> <h2><strong>Risk Analysis of The Current Composition of This Dividend Portfolio</strong></h2> <p>The following risk-analysis of this dividend portfolio, which consists of three ETFs (SCHD, DVY and VIG) and three individual companies (Apple, BlackRock, and Johnson &amp; Johnson), aims to demonstrate the portfolio’s reduced risk level. The composition of the portfolio has been chosen to enhance the probability of successful investment outcomes, if committed to a long-term investment approach.</p> <h3><strong>Risk Analysis of the Portfolio Allocation per Company/ETF</strong></h3> <p>The chart below illustrates that each of the selected ETFs hold 30% of the overall investment portfolio, collectively accounting for 90%.</p> <p>Apple, BlackRock, and Johnson &amp; Johnson, which represent the only individual positions of this dividend portfolio, represent 3.33% of the portfolio each, equalling 10% of the overall portfolio.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img contenteditable=\"false\" height=\"395\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2023/12/21/55029283-1703197385934289.png\" width=\"640\"/></span><figcaption><p><span>Source: The Author</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <h3><strong>Risk Analysis of the Company-Specific Concentration Risk When Allocating SCHD, DVY and VIG Across the Companies They Are Invested in</strong></h3> <p>The graphic below shows the allocation of the portfolio’s holdings when distributing SCHD, DVY and VIG across the companies they are invested in.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img contenteditable=\"false\" height=\"396\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2023/12/21/55029283-17031974263350768.png\" width=\"640\"/></span><figcaption><p><span>Source: The Author, data from Seeking Alpha and Morningstar</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>It can be highlighted that the three individual companies Apple, BlackRock, and Johnson &amp; Johnson account for a larger proportion of the overall investment portfolio.</p> <p>Apple represents 4.68% of the overall investment portfolio when distributing the three ETFs across the companies they are invested in. The portfolio is both directly invested in Apple (with a percentage of 3.33%) and indirectly via Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF.</p> <p>BlackRock represents 4.66% of the overall investment portfolio. The portfolio is directly invested into BlackRock and indirectly via <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SCHD\">Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF</a> and Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF.</p> <p>Johnson &amp; Johnson accounts for 4.08% of the overall portfolio. The portfolio is directly invested in Johnson &amp; Johnson and indirectly via Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF.</p> <p>The fact that no individual position accounts for more than 5% of the overall portfolio, even when distributing the three ETFs SCHD, DVY and VIG across the companies they are invested in, underscores its reduced risk level and elevated chance of achieving positive investment results.</p> <p>Besides Apple, BlackRock, and Johnson &amp; Johnson, all other companies have a proportion of less than 2.3% of the overall investment portfolio and are indirect investments via one of the three selected ETFs.</p> <p>The relatively low proportion of these companies compared to the overall investment portfolio bolsters my confidence in its thoughtful construction, designed to prevent any single company from holding a disproportionately large portion. This approach also indicates an attractive risk/reward profile for the portfolio.</p> <h3><strong>Risk Analysis of the Portfolio’s Sector-Specific Concentration Risk When Distributing SCHD, DVY, and VIG Across the Sectors they are Invested in</strong></h3> <p>The chart below demonstrates the portfolio’s diversification across sectors when allocating SCHD, DVY and VIG across the sectors they are invested in.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img contenteditable=\"false\" height=\"396\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2023/12/21/55029283-1703197642724098.png\" width=\"640\"/></span><figcaption><p><span>Source: The Author, data from Seeking Alpha and Morningstar</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>You can see that the Financials Sector accounts for the largest part of this dividend portfolio, representing 21.77%, followed by the Information Technology Sector (15.96%), the Health Care Sector (13.65%), and the Industrials Sector (10.27%).</p> <p>All other sectors account for less than 10% of the overall investment portfolio: the Consumer Staples Sector accounts for 9.57%, the Utilities Sector for 8.75%, Consumer Discretionary Sector for 8.22%, the Energy Sector for 5.24%, the Communication Sector for 3.58%, and the Materials Sector for 2.99%.</p> <p>The chart underscores the portfolio’s reduced sector-specific concentration risk. Only the Financials Sector slightly exceeds 20% of the total portfolio, while all other sectors represent less than 16% each. This allocation indicates an extensive portfolio diversification across sectors.</p> <p>However, it should be highlighted that the Real Estate Sector is not represented in this dividend portfolio. Therefore, to increase the portfolio diversification to an even higher degree, you could incorporate a company from the Real Estate Sector.</p> <p>Realty Income (O), for example, could be an appealing choice for this dividend portfolio, due to its relatively high Dividend Yield [FWD] of 5.39% and attractive risk/reward profile. In addition to that, it can be highlighted that Realty Income’s low 24M Beta Factor of 0.65 indicates that you can additionally reduce portfolio volatility by incorporating the company.</p> <h3><strong>Risk Analysis: Analyzing the 3 Individual Companies with the Largest Proportion of This Overall Portfolio</strong></h3> <p>Apple (with a proportion of 4.68% of the overall investment portfolio), BlackRock (4.66%) and Johnson &amp; Johnson (4.08%) represent by far the largest holdings of this dividend portfolio.</p> <p>I am convinced that this portfolio provides investors with an attractive risk/reward profile due to the three companies coming attached to a relatively low risk level while offering investors relatively high chances of achieving an attractive Total Return.</p> <h4><strong>Apple, BlackRock and Johnson &amp; Johnson’s Profitability Metrics Underline Their Strong Positions in Their Respective Industries</strong></h4> <p>All three companies have significant competitive advantages, are financially healthy and are well positioned in their respective industries. Apple, BlackRock and Johnson &amp; Johnson’s financial health and their excellent positions within their industries are reflected in their high EBIT Margins [TTM] (29.82%, 35.35% and 27.97% respectively) and their high Net Income Margins [TTM] (25.31%, 30.66% and 35.10% respectively).</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <img contenteditable=\"true\" height=\"371\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2023/12/22/55029283-17032485423791018.png\" width=\"600\" wt-ignore-input=\"true\"/> </picture><figcaption><p><span>Source: The Author, data from Seeking Alpha</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <h4><strong>Apple, BlackRock, and Johnson &amp; Johnson’s Growth Metrics Underscore that their Growth Prospects Are Positive</strong></h4> <p>The chart below further indicates that Apple, BlackRock and Johnson &amp; Johnson are on track when it comes to growth. This theory is underlined by the companies’ EPS Diluted Growth Rate 3 Year [CAGR] of 23.18% (Apple), 5.80% (BlackRock) and 27.64% (Johnson &amp; Johnson), as well as their EBIT Growth Rate 3 Year [CAGR] of 19.91% (Apple), 4.49% (BlackRock) and 11.23% (Johnson &amp; Johnson).</p> <p>These metrics serve as additional indicators of the portfolio’s reduced risk level, implying an elevated chance of successful investment performance for investors who implement it.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <img contenteditable=\"false\" height=\"371\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2023/12/21/55029283-1703197805570462.png\" width=\"600\"/> </picture><figcaption><p><span>Source: The Author, data from Seeking Alpha</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <h3><strong>Risk Analysis of The Equity Style of This Dividend Portfolio</strong></h3> <p>The graphic below illustrates the equity style of this dividend portfolio when distributing the three ETFs (SCHD, DVY and VIG) across the companies they are invested in.</p> <p>My hypothesis of this dividend portfolio having a lowered risk level is supported by its composition: 66% are large-cap companies, 27% mid-cap, and only 7% are small-cap.</p> <p>The reduced risk level is further confirmed by the fact that 45% of the selected companies are value companies, 49% are core companies (which combine value and growth) and only 6% are growth companies. which come attached to a higher risk level.</p> <p>It can further be highlighted that 37% of the portfolio consists of large-cap companies that combine value and growth (core companies), and 24% of the portfolio consists of large-cap companies with a value focus, additionally substantiating the portfolio’s lowered risk profile and its superior potential for positive investment outcomes.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <img contenteditable=\"false\" height=\"371\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2023/12/21/55029283-17031978728250875.png\" width=\"600\"/> </picture><figcaption><p><span>Source: The Author, data from Morningstar</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <h2><strong>Conclusion</strong></h2> <p>Many investors lack the time and willingness to construct an extensively diversified dividend portfolio with a wide range of individual companies, which is crucial for minimizing the risk-level of their investment portfolio.</p> <p>For this reason, in today’s article, I have explained in greater detail how you could allocate the amount of $50,000 among three dividend paying ETFs and three dividend paying individual companies, securing extensive diversification and diminished portfolio risk.</p> <p>The portfolio I have presented today is particularly attractive for younger investors that have a long investment-horizon and plan to benefit from the attractive dividend growth rates that it provides investors with.</p> <p>The portfolio offers investors with a 5 Year Weighted Average Dividend Growth Rate [CAGR] of 9.31% and a Weighted Average Dividend Yield [TTM] of 2.92%, indicating that it blends dividend income with dividend growth. Due to the portfolio composition, I further believe that it is suitable to achieve an attractive Total Return when investing over the long term.</p> <p>Each included company accounts for less than 5% of the overall portfolio, even when distributing the three ETFs (SCHD, DVY and VIG) across the companies they are invested in, indicating a minimization of company-specific concentration risk.</p> <p>I am further convinced that this dividend portfolio provides you with an attractive risk/reward profile due to the three companies that account for the largest share (Apple, BlackRock and Johnson &amp; Johnson) coming attached to a low risk level, thus offering investors a high probability of attractive investment results.</p> <p>For those seeking an even broader diversification, integrating a company from the Real Estate Sector could be a beneficial option. With the incorporation of Realty Income, for example, you could not only amplify the portfolio’s diversification, but also decrease its risk level, as indicated by the company’s 24M Beta Factor of 0.65.</p> <p>I am convinced that the portfolio presented today is tailor-made for a buy-and-hold-approach, ideal for investors seeking a more passive investment approach.</p> <p>You can implement this portfolio without the need to closely follow the financial results of the companies that are part of it, since the portfolio minimizes the demands for active portfolio management.</p> <p>The dividend portfolio presented today offers you the luxury of being able to spend more time with your friends and family, while steadily increasing your wealth with a high chance of success.</p> <div></div> <p><em>Author’s Note: Thank you for reading, and I wish you and your families a Merry Christmas and all the best for 2024!</em></p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Strategically Building A $50,000 Dividend Portfolio With Only 3 ETFs And 3 Stocks</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStrategically Building A $50,000 Dividend Portfolio With Only 3 ETFs And 3 Stocks\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-12-24 05:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4659305-strategically-building-a-50000-dividend-portfolio-with-only-3-etfs-and-3-stocks><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Many investors lack the time to meticulously select a wide range of individual companies. However, this is a crucial step in achieving an extensive portfolio diversification and reduced risk levels....</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4659305-strategically-building-a-50000-dividend-portfolio-with-only-3-etfs-and-3-stocks\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1226730172/image_1226730172.jpg","relate_stocks":{"LU1244550221.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET  INCOME \"A\" (USDHEDGED) INC (M)","LU1074936037.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Value A (acc) SGD","LU0149725797.USD":"汇丰美国股市经济规模基金","FDN":"First Trust Dow Jones Internet I","DVY":"股息指数ETF-iShares Dow Jones","LU0127658192.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4080":"零售业房地产投资信托","LU1201861249.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity PA SGD-H","LU1585245621.USD":"EASTSPRING INV GLOBAL LOW VOLATILITY EQUITY FUND \"A\" (USD) ACC B","IE00B7KXQ091.USD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc USD","LU0980610538.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity RA SGD-H","LU0114720955.EUR":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL HEALTH CARE \"A\" INC","SCHD":"Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF","IE00BLSP4452.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Tactical Dividend Income A Mdis SGD-H Plus","LU2430703095.HKD":"WELLINGTON MULTI-ASSET HIGH INCOME \"AM4\" (HKD) INC","LU0792757196.USD":"TEMPLETON SHARIAH GLOBAL EQUITY FUND \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2430703178.SGD":"WELLINGTON MULTI-ASSET HIGH INCOME \"AM4H\" (SGDHDG) INC","LU1506573853.SGD":"MANULIFE GF GLOBAL EQUITY \"AA\" (SGD) INC","IE00B19Z9505.USD":"美盛-美国大盘成长股A Acc","LU1670628061.USD":"M&G (LUX) NORTH AMERICAN DIVIDEND \"A\" (USD) INC","IE00BJJMRX11.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD","LU1988902786.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS GLOBAL ABSOLUTE ALPHA \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU1023059063.AUD":"BGF WORLD HEALTHSCIENCE \"A2\" (AUDHDG) ACC","LU2430703251.USD":"WELLINGTON MULTI-ASSET HIGH INCOME \"AM4\" (USD) INC","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","LU0353189680.USD":"富国美国全盘成长基金Cl A Acc","BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓","BLK":"贝莱德","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4512":"苹果概念","AAPL":"苹果","LU1261432733.SGD":"Fidelity World A-ACC-SGD","LU2592432038.USD":"WELLINGTON MULTI-ASSET HIGH INCOME \"A\" (USD) ACC","VIG":"股利增长指数ETF-Vanguard","LU0912757837.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Income A (mth) SGD-H","BK4170":"电脑硬件、储存设备及电脑周边","O":"Realty Income Corp","LU0353189763.USD":"ALLSPRING  US ALL CAP GROWTH FUND \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU2264538146.SGD":"Fullerton Lux Funds - Global Absolute Alpha A Acc SGD","IE00BZ1G4Q59.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE US EQUITY SUSTAINABILITY LEADER \"A\"(USD) INC (A)","JNJ":"强生","IE0004445015.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU0011850046.USD":"贝莱德全球长线股票 A2 USD","LU0130102774.USD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity RA USD","BK4592":"伊斯兰概念","LU0882574055.USD":"富达全球健康医疗A ACC","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","LU2505996681.GBP":"WELLINGTON MULTI-ASSET HIGH INCOME \"AM4H\" (GBPHDG) INC","LU0795875169.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Income A (div) SGD-H"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4659305-strategically-building-a-50000-dividend-portfolio-with-only-3-etfs-and-3-stocks","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2393479103","content_text":"Many investors lack the time to meticulously select a wide range of individual companies. However, this is a crucial step in achieving an extensive portfolio diversification and reduced risk levels.Therefore, in today’s article, I will show you how you could allocate the amount of $50,000 among three ETFs as well as three individual companies.This dividend portfolio serves as a buy-and-hold portfolio. It provides investors with an extensive diversification across companies and sectors, securing a diminished risk profile for the portfolio.At the same time, the portfolio provides you with an appealing 5 Year Weighted Average Dividend Growth Rate [CAGR] of 9.31%, indicating strong dividend growth prospects.   William_Potter Investment Thesis Not all investors have the time and willingness to build a portfolio that consists of an extensive number of companies to ensure a good level of diversification. Doing so implies a diminished risk-profile for your portfolio and an elevated chance of favorable investment results. For this reason, in today’s article, I will present you with a diversified dividend portfolio that consists of just three ETFs and three individual companies. I will demonstrate how you could allocate the amount of $50,000 among these three ETFs and three individual companies to invest with a relatively low level of risk, targeting positive investment returns with a significant chance of success. This portfolio combines dividend income with dividend growth, reaching a Weighted Average Dividend Yield [TTM] of 2.92% and a 5 Year Weighted Average Dividend Growth Rate [CAGR] of 9.31%. These numbers indicate that this dividend portfolio is most suitable for younger investors with a long-investment horizon. This is due to the fact that they can benefit in particular from the strong dividend growth rates that the portfolio provides them with. Part of today’s dividend portfolio are three ETFs, each comprising 30% of the total investment portfolio:  Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF (SCHD) iShares Select Dividend ETF (DVY) Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF (VIG)  The following individual companies are also part of this dividend portfolio, each holding a proportion of 3.33%:  Apple (AAPL) BlackRock (BLK) Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)  I will demonstrate how this dividend portfolio achieves extensive diversification across companies and sectors, even when distributing the three ETFs (SCHD, DVY and VIG) across their respective companies and sectors. Moreover, I will show you that the portfolio reaches a relatively low company-specific allocation risk: only Apple, BlackRock and Johnson & Johnson, which all have an attractive risk/reward profile from my point of view, hold a proportion of more than 2.3% of the overall investment portfolio. Overview of the 3 Selected ETFs and 3 Individual Companies That Are Part of This Dividend Portfolio   Symbol Name Sector Industry Country Dividend Yield [TTM] Dividend Growth 5 Yr [CAGR] Allocation Amount in $   SCHD Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF ETF ETF United States 3.52% 13.05% 30% 15,000   DVY iShares Select Dividend ETF ETF ETF United States 3.68% 5.95% 30% 15,000   VIG Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF ETF ETF United States 1.86% 9.52% 30% 15,000   AAPL Apple Information Technology Technology Hardware, Storage and Peripherals United States 0.48% 6.15% 3.33% 1,666.66   BLK BlackRock Financials Asset Management and Custody Banks United States 2.51% 10.72% 3.33% 1,666.66   JNJ Johnson & Johnson Health Care Pharmaceuticals United States 3.02% 5.83% 3.33% 1,666.66             Average: 2.92% Average: 9.31% Sum: 100%  Sum: 50,000   Click to enlarge Source: The Author, data from Seeking Alpha Risk Analysis of The Current Composition of This Dividend Portfolio The following risk-analysis of this dividend portfolio, which consists of three ETFs (SCHD, DVY and VIG) and three individual companies (Apple, BlackRock, and Johnson & Johnson), aims to demonstrate the portfolio’s reduced risk level. The composition of the portfolio has been chosen to enhance the probability of successful investment outcomes, if committed to a long-term investment approach. Risk Analysis of the Portfolio Allocation per Company/ETF The chart below illustrates that each of the selected ETFs hold 30% of the overall investment portfolio, collectively accounting for 90%. Apple, BlackRock, and Johnson & Johnson, which represent the only individual positions of this dividend portfolio, represent 3.33% of the portfolio each, equalling 10% of the overall portfolio. Source: The Author Risk Analysis of the Company-Specific Concentration Risk When Allocating SCHD, DVY and VIG Across the Companies They Are Invested in The graphic below shows the allocation of the portfolio’s holdings when distributing SCHD, DVY and VIG across the companies they are invested in. Source: The Author, data from Seeking Alpha and Morningstar It can be highlighted that the three individual companies Apple, BlackRock, and Johnson & Johnson account for a larger proportion of the overall investment portfolio. Apple represents 4.68% of the overall investment portfolio when distributing the three ETFs across the companies they are invested in. The portfolio is both directly invested in Apple (with a percentage of 3.33%) and indirectly via Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF. BlackRock represents 4.66% of the overall investment portfolio. The portfolio is directly invested into BlackRock and indirectly via Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF and Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF. Johnson & Johnson accounts for 4.08% of the overall portfolio. The portfolio is directly invested in Johnson & Johnson and indirectly via Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF. The fact that no individual position accounts for more than 5% of the overall portfolio, even when distributing the three ETFs SCHD, DVY and VIG across the companies they are invested in, underscores its reduced risk level and elevated chance of achieving positive investment results. Besides Apple, BlackRock, and Johnson & Johnson, all other companies have a proportion of less than 2.3% of the overall investment portfolio and are indirect investments via one of the three selected ETFs. The relatively low proportion of these companies compared to the overall investment portfolio bolsters my confidence in its thoughtful construction, designed to prevent any single company from holding a disproportionately large portion. This approach also indicates an attractive risk/reward profile for the portfolio. Risk Analysis of the Portfolio’s Sector-Specific Concentration Risk When Distributing SCHD, DVY, and VIG Across the Sectors they are Invested in The chart below demonstrates the portfolio’s diversification across sectors when allocating SCHD, DVY and VIG across the sectors they are invested in. Source: The Author, data from Seeking Alpha and Morningstar You can see that the Financials Sector accounts for the largest part of this dividend portfolio, representing 21.77%, followed by the Information Technology Sector (15.96%), the Health Care Sector (13.65%), and the Industrials Sector (10.27%). All other sectors account for less than 10% of the overall investment portfolio: the Consumer Staples Sector accounts for 9.57%, the Utilities Sector for 8.75%, Consumer Discretionary Sector for 8.22%, the Energy Sector for 5.24%, the Communication Sector for 3.58%, and the Materials Sector for 2.99%. The chart underscores the portfolio’s reduced sector-specific concentration risk. Only the Financials Sector slightly exceeds 20% of the total portfolio, while all other sectors represent less than 16% each. This allocation indicates an extensive portfolio diversification across sectors. However, it should be highlighted that the Real Estate Sector is not represented in this dividend portfolio. Therefore, to increase the portfolio diversification to an even higher degree, you could incorporate a company from the Real Estate Sector. Realty Income (O), for example, could be an appealing choice for this dividend portfolio, due to its relatively high Dividend Yield [FWD] of 5.39% and attractive risk/reward profile. In addition to that, it can be highlighted that Realty Income’s low 24M Beta Factor of 0.65 indicates that you can additionally reduce portfolio volatility by incorporating the company. Risk Analysis: Analyzing the 3 Individual Companies with the Largest Proportion of This Overall Portfolio Apple (with a proportion of 4.68% of the overall investment portfolio), BlackRock (4.66%) and Johnson & Johnson (4.08%) represent by far the largest holdings of this dividend portfolio. I am convinced that this portfolio provides investors with an attractive risk/reward profile due to the three companies coming attached to a relatively low risk level while offering investors relatively high chances of achieving an attractive Total Return. Apple, BlackRock and Johnson & Johnson’s Profitability Metrics Underline Their Strong Positions in Their Respective Industries All three companies have significant competitive advantages, are financially healthy and are well positioned in their respective industries. Apple, BlackRock and Johnson & Johnson’s financial health and their excellent positions within their industries are reflected in their high EBIT Margins [TTM] (29.82%, 35.35% and 27.97% respectively) and their high Net Income Margins [TTM] (25.31%, 30.66% and 35.10% respectively).   Source: The Author, data from Seeking Alpha Apple, BlackRock, and Johnson & Johnson’s Growth Metrics Underscore that their Growth Prospects Are Positive The chart below further indicates that Apple, BlackRock and Johnson & Johnson are on track when it comes to growth. This theory is underlined by the companies’ EPS Diluted Growth Rate 3 Year [CAGR] of 23.18% (Apple), 5.80% (BlackRock) and 27.64% (Johnson & Johnson), as well as their EBIT Growth Rate 3 Year [CAGR] of 19.91% (Apple), 4.49% (BlackRock) and 11.23% (Johnson & Johnson). These metrics serve as additional indicators of the portfolio’s reduced risk level, implying an elevated chance of successful investment performance for investors who implement it.   Source: The Author, data from Seeking Alpha Risk Analysis of The Equity Style of This Dividend Portfolio The graphic below illustrates the equity style of this dividend portfolio when distributing the three ETFs (SCHD, DVY and VIG) across the companies they are invested in. My hypothesis of this dividend portfolio having a lowered risk level is supported by its composition: 66% are large-cap companies, 27% mid-cap, and only 7% are small-cap. The reduced risk level is further confirmed by the fact that 45% of the selected companies are value companies, 49% are core companies (which combine value and growth) and only 6% are growth companies. which come attached to a higher risk level. It can further be highlighted that 37% of the portfolio consists of large-cap companies that combine value and growth (core companies), and 24% of the portfolio consists of large-cap companies with a value focus, additionally substantiating the portfolio’s lowered risk profile and its superior potential for positive investment outcomes.   Source: The Author, data from Morningstar Conclusion Many investors lack the time and willingness to construct an extensively diversified dividend portfolio with a wide range of individual companies, which is crucial for minimizing the risk-level of their investment portfolio. For this reason, in today’s article, I have explained in greater detail how you could allocate the amount of $50,000 among three dividend paying ETFs and three dividend paying individual companies, securing extensive diversification and diminished portfolio risk. The portfolio I have presented today is particularly attractive for younger investors that have a long investment-horizon and plan to benefit from the attractive dividend growth rates that it provides investors with. The portfolio offers investors with a 5 Year Weighted Average Dividend Growth Rate [CAGR] of 9.31% and a Weighted Average Dividend Yield [TTM] of 2.92%, indicating that it blends dividend income with dividend growth. Due to the portfolio composition, I further believe that it is suitable to achieve an attractive Total Return when investing over the long term. Each included company accounts for less than 5% of the overall portfolio, even when distributing the three ETFs (SCHD, DVY and VIG) across the companies they are invested in, indicating a minimization of company-specific concentration risk. I am further convinced that this dividend portfolio provides you with an attractive risk/reward profile due to the three companies that account for the largest share (Apple, BlackRock and Johnson & Johnson) coming attached to a low risk level, thus offering investors a high probability of attractive investment results. For those seeking an even broader diversification, integrating a company from the Real Estate Sector could be a beneficial option. With the incorporation of Realty Income, for example, you could not only amplify the portfolio’s diversification, but also decrease its risk level, as indicated by the company’s 24M Beta Factor of 0.65. I am convinced that the portfolio presented today is tailor-made for a buy-and-hold-approach, ideal for investors seeking a more passive investment approach. You can implement this portfolio without the need to closely follow the financial results of the companies that are part of it, since the portfolio minimizes the demands for active portfolio management. The dividend portfolio presented today offers you the luxury of being able to spend more time with your friends and family, while steadily increasing your wealth with a high chance of success.  Author’s Note: Thank you for reading, and I wish you and your families a Merry Christmas and all the best for 2024!","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":347,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}