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2023-11-17
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Is It Time to Consider Swapping Out Nvidia for AMD?
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However, on valuation alone, you can make a bearish argument.","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>Nvidia </strong>(<strong><u>NVDA</u></strong>) is expensive compared to its peers. </p></li><li><p>NVDA stock looks ready to revert to the mean. </p></li><li><p><strong>Advanced Micro Devices </strong>(<strong><u>AMD</u></strong>) has a new chip for AI.</p></li></ul><p>I should pay more attention when I sign up to write about specific companies. In <strong>Nvidia’s </strong>(NASDAQ: <strong><u>NVDA</u></strong>) case, I could write a bullish or a bearish take on NVDA stock.</p><p>For some strange reason, I took the bearish stance. Excuse me? Anyone who’s followed me over the years knows that CEO Jensen Huang is my favorite American CEO.</p><p>Sure, there was a time when I would have suggested that <strong>Advanced Micro Devices</strong> (NASDAQ: <strong><u>AMD</u></strong>) was the better bet than Nvidia. In June 2020, I suggested that whenever AMD stock is on the ropes, it always stages a comeback.</p><p>Over the past month, AMD stock is up 12.4%, 519 basis points higher than Nvidia. In most years, investors would be happy with an 87% return like AMD has generated in 2023. </p><p>And yet, it’s trailing Nvidia by almost three-fold, which brings me to the thesis of my Nvidia bearish argument. </p><p>While Nvidia is one of the premier stocks to own for the next decade, the odds suggest that AMD will outperform NVDA in 2024. </p><p>Here’s why. </p><h2 id=\"id_3302546574\">Reversion to the Mean Has Got to Kick In</h2><p>Over the past five years, AMD spent the first 30 months, from Nov. 2018 to May 2021, outperforming NVDA. They were neck and neck over the next 17 months through November 2022. </p><p>However, Nvidia’s share price took off a year ago, sending it over a $1 trillion market capitalization in May. It fell back during the summer but is now safely over this mark at $1.22 trillion. </p><p>As for AMD, it has a long way to go to a trillion dollars. However, I wouldn’t put it past CEO Linda Su. If anyone can do it, she sure can. Since being named to the top job in October 2014, AMD stock has appreciated by 3,228% cumulatively or 47.6% compounded annually. </p><p>That’s just a mind-blowing performance, but what’s scary is that the next 10 years could be just as rewarding for long-time shareholders. </p><h2 id=\"id_3291879473\">AMD’s Got a New Chip</h2><p>In June, AMD announced it would start shipping, later in 2023, a new advanced GPU (general processing unit), the MI300 X, that would help its customers build AI (artificial intelligence) programs for chatbots, etc.</p><p>“We think about the data center AI accelerator [market] growing from something like $30 billion this year, at over 50% compound annual growth rate, to over $150 billion in 2027,” <em>CNBC </em>reported Su’s June comments.</p><p>Interestingly, SU said in June that the MI300x would support up to 192 GB (gigabyte) of memory, 60% more than Nvidia’s H100 GPU. </p><p>“Model sizes are getting much larger, and you actually need multiple GPUs to run the latest large language models,” Su said.</p><p>Su believes it’s one of the best products she’s ever been a part of developing. <em>Fortune’s </em>David Meyer reported in October about Su and how she’s ready to crash Nvidia’s party. </p><p>Meyer gained insight from Morningstar tech sector director Brian Colello on what could happen in 2024.</p><p>“The trillion-dollar question for Nvidia’s valuation is twofold: How big is this market, and how dominant will they be in this market?” Colello said in an interview with <em>Fortune</em>. “It’s one thing if Nvidia can command 95% of the AI market, relegating AMD to a distant second place. But if it’s a 70/30 split, he says, ‘that would be very good for AMD.”</p><p>While Nvidia is the leading provider of products with top-notch AI capabilities and speed, AMD is said to be getting better by the day. </p><h2 id=\"id_2064827639\">The Bearish Line on NVDA Stock</h2><p>My conclusion is not so much bearish on NVDA stock because I am not, but it’s unrealistic to think Nvidia will capture 100% of the AI market, leaving AMD and <strong>Intel </strong>(NASDAQ: <strong><u>INTC</u></strong>) on the outside looking in. </p><p>Logic dictates that AMD’s products will appeal to a large segment of the AI industry without slowing Nvidia’s growth in this area. There’s more than enough for both. </p><p>“It has become abundantly clear, certainly with the adoption of generative AI in the last year, that this [industry] has the space to grow at an incredibly fast pace,” she said. “We’re looking at 50% compound annual growth rate for the next five-plus years, and there are few markets that do that at this size when you’re talking about tens of billions of dollars.”</p><p>Looking at Nvidia and AMD’s price-to-sales ratios—37.1 and 8.58, respectively—I think it’s fair to suggest that a segment of the investment community will opt for the less expensive stock at this point in AI development. </p><p>It’s not that NVDA stock is terrible; it’s just that AMD is currently the better play from a valuation perspective. </p></body></html>","source":"investorplace_stock_picks","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is It Time to Consider Swapping Out Nvidia for AMD?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs It Time to Consider Swapping Out Nvidia for AMD?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-11-17 11:50 GMT+8 <a href=https://investorplace.com/2023/11/is-it-time-to-consider-swapping-out-nvidia-for-amd/><strong>InvestorPlace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Nvidia (NVDA) is expensive compared to its peers. NVDA stock looks ready to revert to the mean. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) has a new chip for AI.I should pay more attention when I sign up to write ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2023/11/is-it-time-to-consider-swapping-out-nvidia-for-amd/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0353189763.USD":"ALLSPRING US ALL CAP GROWTH FUND \"I\" (USD) ACC","BK4573":"虚拟现实","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","BK4581":"高盛持仓","AMD":"美国超微公司","LU0979878070.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - ASIA ABSOLUTE ALPHA \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0320765059.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin US Opportunities A Acc SGD","LU1852331112.SGD":"Blackrock World Technology Fund A2 SGD-H","LU0672654240.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin US Opportunities A Acc SGD-H1","IE00B1BXHZ80.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Appreciation A Acc USD","NVDA":"英伟达","LU0316494557.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL FUNDAMENTAL STRATEGIES \"A\" ACC","IE00BFSS8Q28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD-H","BK4529":"IDC概念","LU0786609619.USD":"高盛全球千禧一代股票组合Acc","LU0234572021.USD":"高盛美国核心股票组合Acc","LU1951198990.SGD":"Natixis Thematics AI & Robotics Fund H-R/A SGD-H","LU0708995401.HKD":"FRANKLIN U.S. OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU1951200564.SGD":"Natixis Thematics AI & Robotics Fund R/A SGD","IE0009356076.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION \"A2\" (USD) ACC","BK4592":"伊斯兰概念","LU1303367103.USD":"摩根大通多经理另类基金 A (acc)","IE00B7KXQ091.USD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc USD","LU0348723411.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL HI-TECH GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","LU1923623000.USD":"Natixis Thematics AI & Robotics Fund R/A USD","LU2098885051.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - Multi-Manager Alternatives A (acc) SGD","IE00BFSS7M15.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD-H","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","LU0109391861.USD":"富兰克林美国机遇基金A Acc","IE00B19Z9505.USD":"美盛-美国大盘成长股A Acc","BK4575":"芯片概念","LU0417517546.SGD":"Allianz US Equity Cl AT Acc SGD","BK4587":"ChatGPT概念","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元","LU1988902786.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS GLOBAL ABSOLUTE ALPHA \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU0082616367.USD":"摩根大通美国科技A（dist）","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4543":"AI","LU0080751232.USD":"富达环球多元动力基金A","LU0719512351.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Technology A (acc) SGD","BK4579":"人工智能","IE00BMPRXR70.SGD":"Neuberger Berman 5G Connectivity A Acc SGD-H","BK4588":"碎股","IE00BMPRXN33.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN 5G CONNECTIVITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0321505439.SGD":"Schroder ISF Global Dividend Maximiser A Acc SGD","LU0820562030.AUD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMH2\" (AUDHDG) H2 INC"},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2023/11/is-it-time-to-consider-swapping-out-nvidia-for-amd/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2383842737","content_text":"Nvidia (NVDA) is expensive compared to its peers. NVDA stock looks ready to revert to the mean. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) has a new chip for AI.I should pay more attention when I sign up to write about specific companies. In Nvidia’s (NASDAQ: NVDA) case, I could write a bullish or a bearish take on NVDA stock.For some strange reason, I took the bearish stance. Excuse me? Anyone who’s followed me over the years knows that CEO Jensen Huang is my favorite American CEO.Sure, there was a time when I would have suggested that Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ: AMD) was the better bet than Nvidia. In June 2020, I suggested that whenever AMD stock is on the ropes, it always stages a comeback.Over the past month, AMD stock is up 12.4%, 519 basis points higher than Nvidia. In most years, investors would be happy with an 87% return like AMD has generated in 2023. And yet, it’s trailing Nvidia by almost three-fold, which brings me to the thesis of my Nvidia bearish argument. While Nvidia is one of the premier stocks to own for the next decade, the odds suggest that AMD will outperform NVDA in 2024. Here’s why. Reversion to the Mean Has Got to Kick InOver the past five years, AMD spent the first 30 months, from Nov. 2018 to May 2021, outperforming NVDA. They were neck and neck over the next 17 months through November 2022. However, Nvidia’s share price took off a year ago, sending it over a $1 trillion market capitalization in May. It fell back during the summer but is now safely over this mark at $1.22 trillion. As for AMD, it has a long way to go to a trillion dollars. However, I wouldn’t put it past CEO Linda Su. If anyone can do it, she sure can. Since being named to the top job in October 2014, AMD stock has appreciated by 3,228% cumulatively or 47.6% compounded annually. That’s just a mind-blowing performance, but what’s scary is that the next 10 years could be just as rewarding for long-time shareholders. AMD’s Got a New ChipIn June, AMD announced it would start shipping, later in 2023, a new advanced GPU (general processing unit), the MI300 X, that would help its customers build AI (artificial intelligence) programs for chatbots, etc.“We think about the data center AI accelerator [market] growing from something like $30 billion this year, at over 50% compound annual growth rate, to over $150 billion in 2027,” CNBC reported Su’s June comments.Interestingly, SU said in June that the MI300x would support up to 192 GB (gigabyte) of memory, 60% more than Nvidia’s H100 GPU. “Model sizes are getting much larger, and you actually need multiple GPUs to run the latest large language models,” Su said.Su believes it’s one of the best products she’s ever been a part of developing. Fortune’s David Meyer reported in October about Su and how she’s ready to crash Nvidia’s party. Meyer gained insight from Morningstar tech sector director Brian Colello on what could happen in 2024.“The trillion-dollar question for Nvidia’s valuation is twofold: How big is this market, and how dominant will they be in this market?” Colello said in an interview with Fortune. “It’s one thing if Nvidia can command 95% of the AI market, relegating AMD to a distant second place. But if it’s a 70/30 split, he says, ‘that would be very good for AMD.”While Nvidia is the leading provider of products with top-notch AI capabilities and speed, AMD is said to be getting better by the day. The Bearish Line on NVDA StockMy conclusion is not so much bearish on NVDA stock because I am not, but it’s unrealistic to think Nvidia will capture 100% of the AI market, leaving AMD and Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) on the outside looking in. Logic dictates that AMD’s products will appeal to a large segment of the AI industry without slowing Nvidia’s growth in this area. There’s more than enough for both. “It has become abundantly clear, certainly with the adoption of generative AI in the last year, that this [industry] has the space to grow at an incredibly fast pace,” she said. “We’re looking at 50% compound annual growth rate for the next five-plus years, and there are few markets that do that at this size when you’re talking about tens of billions of dollars.”Looking at Nvidia and AMD’s price-to-sales ratios—37.1 and 8.58, respectively—I think it’s fair to suggest that a segment of the investment community will opt for the less expensive stock at this point in AI development. It’s not that NVDA stock is terrible; it’s just that AMD is currently the better play from a valuation perspective.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":165,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":242327546953792,"gmtCreate":1700199017168,"gmtModify":1700201282631,"author":{"id":"4161803401120962","authorId":"4161803401120962","name":"F_C_Liu","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4161803401120962","authorIdStr":"4161803401120962"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Share your opinion about this news…","listText":"Share your opinion about this news…","text":"Share your opinion about this news…","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/242327546953792","repostId":"2383842737","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":165,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
