$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ Tesla's EV market is tumbling across all 3 major markets. China's throat cutting price wars; Europe's anti Musk sentiment and USA's impending consumer spending collapse means the current valuation is still over stretched. Another 50-70% downside risk while upside opportunity support is still too far away to save it.
$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ someone who doesn't like Elon will surely not buy Tesla car. Someone who likes Elon may not buy Tesla car. I will not be surprised Europe sales to drop by 80% yoy In the next few months. China market is prolly decline in big double digit with the ongoing price war. US market is affected too as ev buyers are usually progressive. So all, the factory will come close to a big slow down.
$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ Blackwell is mainly for inference purpose. The gold rush moment getting GPUs for training purpose is over. Now tech companies have to scrutinise carefully the ROI on every infrastructure investment. Microsoft has been very careful now, they 80bil capital spending will be largely for long lived assets like land next year. To give a context, land and building are about 60% of AI investment, the rest goes to the chips and network. So near term, it may still go on a run but in a few months time, cracks will be telling!
$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ decrease in gross margin due to a transition to more complex and higher cost system within data centre.. sounds like a permanent slide and weakened pricing power. With more Blackwell sales taking over, the margin will slide further.
$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ Let's just say the initial gold rush moment for GPU training purpose is over? Inference needs are less time pressured and there are a few competitors out there. Margin will not reach 75% even with ramp up.
$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ turbulent time for Tesla. Even with recent correction, it still stands at exorbitant PE with future products no longer providing competitive edge given the swamp of competitors.
$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ Wall Street Analysts gave unrealistic targets and at the same time selling big time. Retail investors unfortunately are still in euphoric moment.
$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ FSD roll out - this really depends on regulatory approval. Again, Europe and China will not approve until their champions are ready. EV competition - fierce competition, market is growing, competitors are growing but Tesla sales are dropping Humanoid robots - hundreds of robotic companies from China are ready to compete. The Tesla now is different from the Tesla back during the infantry of EV industry. Surely 100+ trailing and forward PE are overly optimistic in this challenging environment for Tesla
$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ quite frankly, Nvidia chips are great for training. Market leader no doubt but the market needs are growing as fast. Inference is growing; now at 40% and will end up 80-90%. Inference can be done from the edge and lots of competitors out there.. margin will not be as great. DeepSeek shows it is worth penetrating CUDA to achieve better inference efficiency. And to add on, insider trading is selling the shares big time!
$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ SMCI prolly can recognise some parts of Blackwell revenue where it prepares client site for installation while waiting for Blackwell chip to arrive. But for NVIDIA, revenue can only be recognised when chips are shipped. I would expect revenue this quarter to go below forecast or even lower than last quarter. A big revenue hole to fill as it transits from hopper to Blackwell.
$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ Blackwell delay? Extract from Supermicro earnings transcript: John Tanwang, Analyst, CGS Securities Inc.: you could break down the factors that were maybe, David, driving the reduction in the '25 revenue guidance. How much is maybe pricing related? How much do you think is related to delays or availability of Blackwell on how and the impact on hopper demand? And then maybe how much was related to your 10 ks and maybe customers not feeling so great about doing business with you until that's filed? David Wiegand, Chief Financial Officer, Supermicro: Yes. I would say, John, that probably the biggest factor was just the delay in new technology because we were when you think about it, we were all set to go
$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ government connection is great but it can be negative too. Ultimately Tesla sells to end consumers. There may be risk of consumer quiet boycott if it is not managed properly.
$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ good time, can enjoy extreme PE; when situation changes, it is fastest to change fortunes. Furthermore, it is not backed by solid earnings.
$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ FSD faces regulatory hurdles, EV competition in China intensifies, lost of market share in China. Slow or stagnant growth in North America and Europe. Thousands of Humanoid robots are to be deployed this year in own factories for boring tasks - if boring any robots can do right?. Despite all these challenges, Tesla shares jumped on the optimism that Tesla will be the largest company in the world, bigger than the next 5 companies put together. Love the story telling session.