I. Performance and Valuation of Global Equity Indices Data Source: Bloomberg, Complied by Tiger Brokers II. Key Market Themes i. Positive Signals from China's High-Level Meeting: How to Position Greater China Assets? On December 9, the Chinese Communist Party's Politburo convened a meeting to analyze and discuss economic work for 2025. Compared to previous sessions, this meeting adopted a more positive tone, introducing the term “extraordinary counter-cyclical adjustments” for the first time. Moreover, in the overall agenda, “expanding domestic demand comprehensively” was prioritized over “building a modern industrial system,” indicating that addressing “how to expand domestic demand and tackle insufficient effective demand” will be the top priority for China’s economy next year. Nota

I. Performance and Valuation of Global Equity Indices Data Source: Bloomberg, compiled by Tiger Brokers II. Key Market Themes i. U.S. Economic Data Released Intensively: Is the Fed "All in Control"? Last week, the U.S. released its November manufacturing and services PMI. Unlike the past few months, manufacturing PMI saw a significant improvement over previous readings and exceeded market expectations, though it remained below the neutral 50 threshold. In contrast, services PMI sharply declined, falling below expectations but stayed above the 50 line. In other words, manufacturing is warming up, though not sufficiently, while services are weakening, but not alarmingly so. Additionally, November employment data was released last Friday. Non-farm payroll additions, based on corporate su

I. Performance and Valuation of Global Equity Indices Data Source: Bloomberg, compiled by Tiger Brokers II. Key Market Themes i. October PCE Inflation in the U.S. Meets Expectations, Economy Strengthens – Can December Deliver a Rate Cut? Recently, the October PCE inflation data for the U.S. was released. Nominal PCE and core PCE rose by 0.20% and 0.27% month-over-month, respectively, both in line with market expectations. Notably, inflation in the services sector continued to rise with an accelerating pace, while durable goods experienced a continued month-over-month decline. Overall, while inflation has ticked up, it remains within expectations. At the same time, personal income and personal spending of U.S. residents increased by 0.6% and 0.4% month-over-month, respectively, signifi

I. Performance and Valuation of Global Equity Indices Data Source: Bloomberg, compiled by Tiger Brokers II. Key Market Themes i. Trump’s Cabinet Formation is Complete: What Does the Treasury Secretary Choice Mean for the Future Macroeconomic Landscape? Recently, the highly anticipated position of U.S. Treasury Secretary in the new administration was finalized. Trump ultimately did not choose Lutnick, strongly recommended by Musk, but instead nominated Key Square founder and Soros Fund CIO, Bessent. Comparatively, Bessent is a staunch supporter of liberal economics, aligning with Trump on policies such as broad tariffs, tax reform, and financial deregulation, though he is less radical than Lutnick. Specifically, he has proposed the “3-3-3 Policy” to Trump, which entails reducing the f

I. Performance and Valuation of Global Equity Indices Data Source: Bloomberg, compiled by Tiger Brokers II. Key Market Themes i. U.S. inflation remains elevated, the economy is strong, but the stock market is plummeting—what exactly is the market worried about? Last week, the U.S. October inflation data was released. The nominal CPI and core CPI rose by 0.2% and 0.3% month-over-month, respectively, staying consistent with previous increases and meeting market expectations. A closer look reveals that only used car prices saw a notable increase, but given their small weight in the index, the overall impact was minimal. The following day, PPI data also came out as expected, with no surprises. In response, Federal Reserve spokesperson Nick indicated that while inflation remains stubborn,

I. Performance and Valuation of Global Equity Indices Data Source: Bloomberg, compiled by Tiger Brokers II. Key Market Themes i. Trump’s Decisive Victory and Republican Sweep: Implications for U.S. Equities, Bonds, and the Federal Reserve This week, the final outcome of the U.S. election revealed a sweeping win for Trump, who captured all seven battleground states and decisively secured the presidency. Additionally, the Republican Party achieved a majority in both the Senate and the House of Representatives, establishing unified governance across the executive and legislative branches. Over the coming four years, Trump’s policy implementation is likely to become smoother and have broader impacts. Market reactions have been particularly notable, with beneficiaries like DJT and Tesla

I. Performance and Valuation of Global Equity Indices Data source: Bloomberg, 2024/10/28-2024/11/03, compiled by Tiger Brokers II. Key Market Themes i. Trump’s Odds Decline, U.S. Election Uncertainty Remains – Watch Out for Market Panic This week, the results of the U.S. election are about to be announced. Just a few days ago, the market believed that Trump was almost guaranteed to win, but multiple polls released over the weekend show that the Democratic Party currently holds an advantage in several swing states. As a result, Trump’s odds on Polymarket plummeted from 66% last week to as low as 54%. On some other platforms, Harris's support rate has even surpassed Trump's, leaving the suspense of this election until the last moment. The capital markets quickly reacted as well, with Tr

I. Performance and Valuation of Global Equity Indices Data source: Bloomberg, 2024/10/21-2024/10/27, compiled by Tiger Brokers II. Key Market Themes i. Countdown to the U.S. Election: Markets Betting on a Trump Rally, Caution Needed During Macro Super Week! The highly anticipated U.S. 2024 election is entering its final countdown, with both the Republican and Democratic parties actively campaigning to make a last push. Interestingly, there is a wide disparity in polling data across different media platforms. For instance, CNN's recent poll shows support for both sides nearly tied, while The Economist’s model predicts a 54% chance of Trump returning to the White House. Additionally, external betting site Polymarket indicates a 66% probability for a Trump win. Recently, capital markets

I. Performance and Valuation of Global Equity Indices Data source: Bloomberg, 2024/10/14-2024/10/20, compiled by Tiger Brokers II. Key Market Themes i. The U.S. economy continues to strengthen, and Fed officials suggest a slowdown in rate cuts—can rate cut trades persist? Last week, the U.S. released September retail consumption data, with a month-over-month increase of 0.43%, significantly surpassing market expectations of 0.3%. Excluding gasoline and automobiles, retail sales rose 0.7% month-over-month, with significant increases in the food services and beverage sectors. Additionally, initial jobless claims last week recorded 241,000, better than the market's expected 260,000. At the same time, Fed officials made positive remarks this week. Fed Governor Waller stated, "As long as t

I. Performance of Global Equity Indices (in US dollars) Data source: Bloomberg, 2024/09/30-2024/10/13, compiled by Tiger Brokers II. Key Market Themes i. China's mainland stimulus policies continue to increase, and Greater China assets have become more volatile. Is this a good time to increase positions? Recently, mainland China's economic stimulus policies have continued to intensify and accelerate. Since the policy direction was set by top leaders in late September, monetary policies such as interest rate cuts, reserve requirement ratio reductions, and lowering of mortgage rates on existing loans have been successively introduced. On October 12, Minister of Finance Lan Fo’an attended a press conference at the State Council Information Office, introducing measures related to “increas

I. Performance of Global Equity Indices (in US dollars) Data source: Bloomberg, 2024/09/23-2024/09/29, compiled by Tiger Brokers II. Key Market Themes i. China's mainland has unleashed major economic stimulus measures, sparking a global scramble for Greater China assets. How should we view the subsequent market trends? This week, China's mainland has rolled out a series of major economic stimulus measures. On September 24th, the State Council Information Office of China held a press conference where the Governor of the People's Bank of China, the Director of the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, and the Chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission introduced the situation and answered questions from reporters. The policy intensity of this press conference fa

I. Performance of Global Equity Indices (in US dollars) Data source: Bloomberg, 2024/09/15-2024/09/19, compiled by Tiger Brokers II. Our View This week, the Federal Reserve's FOMC decided to cut interest rates by 50bps, officially opening the door to rate cuts. Contrary to the previous expectations of mainstream institutions, the Fed did not adopt the "25bps cut + dovish statement" approach, but instead used a "50bps cut + hawkish statement" to continue balancing expectations. The market had already anticipated the start of the rate cut cycle with a 50bps reduction. Given that the current Federal Reserve's benchmark interest rate is significantly higher than the neutral rate (around 2.5%-3%), the initial 50bps cut demonstrates the Fed's determination to prevent an economic recession, mitig

I. Performance of Global Equity Indices (in US dollars) Data source: Bloomberg, 2024/09/02-2024/09/08, compiled by Tiger Brokers II. Key Market Themes i. September Calendar Effect Strikes, U.S. Stocks Plunge to Record Weekly Drop—What's Next? Last week, U.S. stocks experienced a September hit, with the Nasdaq 100 Index $纳斯达克100指数(NDX)$ dropping 5.89% in a single week, marking its worst weekly performance in nearly two years, despite no significant shifts in fundamentals. As a result, discussions about the September calendar effect in the market have started heating up. According to statistics from Bank of America (BofA), over the past 100 years, U.S. stocks generally perform poorly in September, with the S&P 500

I. Performance of Global Equity Indices (in US dollars) Data source: Bloomberg, 2024/08/26-2024/09/01, compiled by Tiger Brokers II. Key Market Themes i. NVIDIA Earnings Beat Expectations, Yet Stock Drops: What's Behind It? Last week, the AI leader Nvidia $英伟达(NVDA)$ released its Q2 financial report. The data shows that the company's quarterly revenue was 30.04 billion, with AI-related data center business revenue at 26.3 billion, and the third-quarter guidance revenue at 32.5 billion, all of which exceeded market expectations. However, despite this, the stock price fell by more than 6% after the report. The market generally believes there are two reasons for this. On the one hand, the gross margin that Nvidia announced this ti

I. Performance of Global Equity Indices (in US dollars) Data source: Bloomberg, 2024/08/19-2024/08/25, compiled by Tiger Brokers II. Key Market Themes i. Non-Farm Revisions and Powell's First Official Rate Cut Announcement Boost Market Sentiment Last week, the U.S. non-farm payrolls data underwent its official annual revision. The data showed that from April 2023 to March 2024, non-farm job additions were revised down by a total of 818,000, averaging a monthly downward revision of 68,200. Despite the significant downward revision, it did not exceed market expectations, and U.S. stocks continued to rise after the data was released. This confirms our analysis from last week: the market is most concerned with the moment of data release and tends to downplay subsequent revision

I. Performance of Global Equity Indices (in US dollars) Data source: Bloomberg, compiled by Tiger Brokers II. Key Market Themes i. Review: US Inflation and Economic Outlook Improve, Recession Sentiment Reverses, Market Rebounds Recently, US July inflation data was released, with both CPI and PPI beating market expectations. CPI rose by 2.9% year-over-year, lower than the expected 3%, marking the lowest increase in nearly three years. In detail, core goods continued to decline, while core services remained stubborn, with higher increases in housing and transportation. On the other hand, recent US economic data has also improved. Retail sales in July increased by 1% month-over-month, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 0.3%! Even considering the -0.2% downward revision of June

I. Performance of Global Equity Indices (in US dollars) Data source: Bloomberg, compiled by Tiger Brokers II. Key Market Themes i. Emergency "Reassurances" by US and Japanese Central Banks: How Long Will the Recession Sentiment Last? Recently, facing the severe turbulence in the capital markets and near-loss-of-control panic, the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan have both stepped in to calm the markets. The Deputy Governor of the Bank of Japan even directly stated, "Given the extreme turbulence in both domestic and international financial and capital markets, the central bank needs to temporarily maintain the current accommodative policy." This near-defeatist statement has somewhat reassured the precarious market sentiment. On one hand, according to the Commodity Futures Trading Commi

I. Performance of Global Equity Indices (in US dollars) Data source: Bloomberg, compiled by Tiger Brokers II. Key Market Themes i. Market Recap: Japan and South Korea plummet, US stocks plunge, panic sweeps the globe, what happened to the market? Recently, frequent black swan events worldwide have triggered severe fluctuations in the global capital markets. Among them, US tech stocks, Japanese, and South Korean stocks in the Asia-Pacific region were hit the hardest, leading the global decline. On August 5th, the Nikkei 225 index plummeted more than 12% in a single day, setting a record for the largest single-day drop in history. Firstly, the Bank of Japan raised interest rates again and unexpectedly tightened monetary policy, causing a global repatriation of yen carry traders, putting sign

I. Performance of Global Equity Indices (in US dollars) Data source: Bloomberg, compiled by Tiger Brokers II. Key Market Themes i. Earnings reports trigger a continuous decline in big tech; is AI at this moment a pie or a trap? Last week, Google $谷歌(GOOG)$ and Tesla $特斯拉(TSLA)$ released their Q2 earnings reports on the same day. Tesla's net profit plummeted by 42%, significantly below market expectations. In contrast, Google's performance exceeded market expectations, but its guidance for the second half of the year did not provide any pleasant surprises. Consequently, the tech sector took a nosedive, and the Nasdaq index continued to decline. As observed in last week's market commentary, "The difficulty

I. Performance of Global Equity Indices (in US dollars) Data source: Bloomberg, compiled by Tiger Brokers II. Key Market Themes i. US stocks have entered the Q2 earnings season, with Wall Street expectations on the rise. Will the market continue to buy in? As of last Friday, about 14% of the S&P 500 constituents have released their latest earnings reports, with 80% of companies beating earnings expectations, higher than the historical average. However, the magnitude of beating expectations is far lower than the historical average. Among them, the financial sector has the largest margin of beating expectations, while the energy sector is relatively weaker. The year-over-year growth in overall earnings of US stocks has increased compared to the end of June. Overall, Wall Street's earning