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","text":"$恒生科技指数(HSTECH)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/308518129225840","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":294,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":363524521541832,"gmtCreate":1729777646619,"gmtModify":1729780578798,"author":{"id":"4177058835468772","authorId":"4177058835468772","name":"Benchen997","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b842684d88b82a0583a48acc48ac6904","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4177058835468772","idStr":"4177058835468772"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"f","listText":"f","text":"f","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/363524521541832","repostId":"2477572174","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2477572174","pubTimestamp":1729758623,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2477572174?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-10-24 16:30","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"高盛唱空未来十年股市，投资者如何逆势突围？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2477572174","media":"金十数据","summary":"高盛最新报告引发热议，称未来十年标普500指数年均回报仅3%，扣除通胀后更是只有1%。这预示着股市可能步入失落的十年。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>高盛最新报告引发热议，称未来十年标普500指数年均回报仅3%，扣除通胀后更是只有1%。这预示着股市可能步入失落的十年。</p></blockquote><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>的策略师认为大规模股市回报的时代已经结束。华尔街的看涨者认为高盛错了，即使高盛的预测成真，也有办法战胜它。</p><p>华尔街发布了大量研究报告，大多数都没有引起太多关注。但<strong>高盛最近的一份报告提出了一个令人瞩目的主张：未来十年，标普500指数的年均回报率将仅为3%，扣除通胀后的实际回报率仅为1%。</strong></p><p>虽然这些只是估算，但它们暗示股市将迎来失落的十年，这将是自1930年代大萧条以来最糟糕的时期之一。过去几十年间，股市的年均回报率约为11%。</p><p>高盛在周三没有回应评论请求。</p><p><strong>其预测的核心是市场高度集中在少数几只明星股票，主要是“七大科技巨头”</strong>。根据高盛的说法，市场的集中度达到了过去100年来的最高点。“任何公司都很难在长时间内保持高水平的销售增长和利润率，”高盛分析师写道，“高度集中的指数也面临同样的问题。”</p><p>高盛还认为，市场基于周期调整市盈率（CAPE）被高估，该比率使用过去10年通胀调整后的平均收益。高盛指出，标普500指数的CAPE比率为38，这在自1930年以来的历史中排在第97个百分位。</p><p>几位分析师对高盛的观点表示反对。独立研究公司DataTrek在周二的一份报告中称，高盛的预测“异常悲观”。虽然股市曾经历过长达十年的3%回报期，但这些时期通常伴随着“非常特定的催化剂”，如大萧条、1973-1974年石油危机或2008年金融危机，DataTrek指出。</p><p>“我们没看到他们的研究人员预见了什么危机，”DataTrek写道。</p><p>经济学家兼策略师Ed Yardeni也对高盛关于市场集中度的警告提出质疑。他承认<strong>，科技和通信服务这两个板块现在占标普500指数的约40%，与互联网泡沫时期相当</strong>。</p><p>但高盛可能忽视了科技对更广泛经济的深远影响。“如今，所有公司都可以被视为科技公司，”Yardeni在周二写道。“<strong>科技不仅仅是股市中的一个板块，它还是提高生产力增长、降低单位劳动力成本通胀和提高所有公司利润率的一个越来越重要的来源。</strong>”</p><p>如何看待这些情况？可以选择忽略它。虽然高盛认为市场过度集中且估值过高的论点有其道理，但<strong>市场也可能在高估值的情况下继续上涨数年</strong>。华尔街的知名人物多年来一直在指出高估值。要是你听从他们的建议，退出股市，你可能错过了一次极好的上涨行情。</p><p>甚至曾推广CAPE比率的诺贝尔奖得主罗伯特·希勒（Robert Shiller）近年来也承认，该比率可能需要调整。</p><p>话虽如此，高盛的一个建议值得考虑。该公司建议投资者关注标普500指数的等权重版本，而不是传统的市值加权版本。如果当前的明星股票表现放缓，等权重指数可能表现更好。</p><p>使用该策略的Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF是《巴伦周刊》推荐的一个指数基金。</p><p>高盛还提到债券，认为未来十年它们有很大可能跑赢股票。不过这并不算多大成就。如今10年期美国国债的收益率为4.24%，扣除通胀后的实际收益率约为2%。虽然这比什么都不做要好，<strong>但即便只是为了股息而购买股票并持续再投资，股票的表现应该也会更好</strong>，尤其是随着复利效应的显现。</p></body></html>","source":"xnew_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n高盛唱空未来十年股市，投资者如何逆势突围？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-10-24 16:30 北京时间 <a href=https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=151348&type=news&data_type=0><strong>金十数据</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>高盛最新报告引发热议，称未来十年标普500指数年均回报仅3%，扣除通胀后更是只有1%。这预示着股市可能步入失落的十年。高盛的策略师认为大规模股市回报的时代已经结束。华尔街的看涨者认为高盛错了，即使高盛的预测成真，也有办法战胜它。华尔街发布了大量研究报告，大多数都没有引起太多关注。但高盛最近的一份报告提出了一个令人瞩目的主张：未来十年，标普500指数的年均回报率将仅为3%，扣除通胀后的实际回报率仅为...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=151348&type=news&data_type=0\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b3684302211042d481cacf9066fbcca","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=151348&type=news&data_type=0","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2477572174","content_text":"高盛最新报告引发热议，称未来十年标普500指数年均回报仅3%，扣除通胀后更是只有1%。这预示着股市可能步入失落的十年。高盛的策略师认为大规模股市回报的时代已经结束。华尔街的看涨者认为高盛错了，即使高盛的预测成真，也有办法战胜它。华尔街发布了大量研究报告，大多数都没有引起太多关注。但高盛最近的一份报告提出了一个令人瞩目的主张：未来十年，标普500指数的年均回报率将仅为3%，扣除通胀后的实际回报率仅为1%。虽然这些只是估算，但它们暗示股市将迎来失落的十年，这将是自1930年代大萧条以来最糟糕的时期之一。过去几十年间，股市的年均回报率约为11%。高盛在周三没有回应评论请求。其预测的核心是市场高度集中在少数几只明星股票，主要是“七大科技巨头”。根据高盛的说法，市场的集中度达到了过去100年来的最高点。“任何公司都很难在长时间内保持高水平的销售增长和利润率，”高盛分析师写道，“高度集中的指数也面临同样的问题。”高盛还认为，市场基于周期调整市盈率（CAPE）被高估，该比率使用过去10年通胀调整后的平均收益。高盛指出，标普500指数的CAPE比率为38，这在自1930年以来的历史中排在第97个百分位。几位分析师对高盛的观点表示反对。独立研究公司DataTrek在周二的一份报告中称，高盛的预测“异常悲观”。虽然股市曾经历过长达十年的3%回报期，但这些时期通常伴随着“非常特定的催化剂”，如大萧条、1973-1974年石油危机或2008年金融危机，DataTrek指出。“我们没看到他们的研究人员预见了什么危机，”DataTrek写道。经济学家兼策略师Ed Yardeni也对高盛关于市场集中度的警告提出质疑。他承认，科技和通信服务这两个板块现在占标普500指数的约40%，与互联网泡沫时期相当。但高盛可能忽视了科技对更广泛经济的深远影响。“如今，所有公司都可以被视为科技公司，”Yardeni在周二写道。“科技不仅仅是股市中的一个板块，它还是提高生产力增长、降低单位劳动力成本通胀和提高所有公司利润率的一个越来越重要的来源。”如何看待这些情况？可以选择忽略它。虽然高盛认为市场过度集中且估值过高的论点有其道理，但市场也可能在高估值的情况下继续上涨数年。华尔街的知名人物多年来一直在指出高估值。要是你听从他们的建议，退出股市，你可能错过了一次极好的上涨行情。甚至曾推广CAPE比率的诺贝尔奖得主罗伯特·希勒（Robert Shiller）近年来也承认，该比率可能需要调整。话虽如此，高盛的一个建议值得考虑。该公司建议投资者关注标普500指数的等权重版本，而不是传统的市值加权版本。如果当前的明星股票表现放缓，等权重指数可能表现更好。使用该策略的Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF是《巴伦周刊》推荐的一个指数基金。高盛还提到债券，认为未来十年它们有很大可能跑赢股票。不过这并不算多大成就。如今10年期美国国债的收益率为4.24%，扣除通胀后的实际收益率约为2%。虽然这比什么都不做要好，但即便只是为了股息而购买股票并持续再投资，股票的表现应该也会更好，尤其是随着复利效应的显现。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":310691101782048,"gmtCreate":1716861743723,"gmtModify":1716861886507,"author":{"id":"4177058835468772","authorId":"4177058835468772","name":"Benchen997","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b842684d88b82a0583a48acc48ac6904","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4177058835468772","idStr":"4177058835468772"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/HSTECH\">$恒生科技指数(HSTECH)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> ","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/HSTECH\">$恒生科技指数(HSTECH)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 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