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MSA3A

06-12

Baker Hughes & Maersk are one too. Brilliant riggers from Blackstone Inc's No.1 private equity firm in the world. Michelle Farrah & Sandra Cooper

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MSA3A

06-12

Choose Malaysian Drillers for the best & safest oil. With companies like Blackstone Inc.

Sorry, the original content has been removed

MSA3A

06-12

This is essentially what the Crown Prince of Johor and I have been rambling about from Malaysia. The newly coronated King Ibrahim and his wife also have expressed concern & interest over the catastrophic need for such endeavours. Please sign it.

Singapore, Malaysia Near Final Pact for Special Economic Zone

MSA3A

06-06

Further in need of Ai Securities @ Comissioning. Great man once said an Open Ai is an eye opened.

US Regulators to Open Antitrust Inquiries of Microsoft, OpenAI and Nvidia, NYT Reports

MSA3A

05-29

Kutzbah

Tesla's iPhone Moment

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Brilliant riggers from Blackstone Inc's No.1 private equity firm in the world. Michelle Farrah &amp; Sandra Cooper&nbsp;","listText":"Baker Hughes &amp; Maersk are one too. Brilliant riggers from Blackstone Inc's No.1 private equity firm in the world. Michelle Farrah &amp; Sandra Cooper&nbsp;","text":"Baker Hughes & Maersk are one too. Brilliant riggers from Blackstone Inc's No.1 private equity firm in the world. Michelle Farrah & Sandra Cooper","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/316066278383896","repostId":"2442587047","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":321,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":316065991446568,"gmtCreate":1718194257774,"gmtModify":1718198574720,"author":{"id":"4179503792031752","authorId":"4179503792031752","name":"MSA3A","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/838b2d2b99a3e9332e14aa48f904963f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4179503792031752","idStr":"4179503792031752"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Choose Malaysian Drillers for the best &amp; safest oil. With companies like Blackstone Inc.&nbsp;","listText":"Choose Malaysian Drillers for the best &amp; safest oil. With companies like Blackstone Inc.&nbsp;","text":"Choose Malaysian Drillers for the best & safest oil. With companies like Blackstone Inc.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/316065991446568","repostId":"2442587047","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":173,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":316027910066192,"gmtCreate":1718184992064,"gmtModify":1718186161046,"author":{"id":"4179503792031752","authorId":"4179503792031752","name":"MSA3A","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/838b2d2b99a3e9332e14aa48f904963f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4179503792031752","idStr":"4179503792031752"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"This is essentially what the Crown Prince of Johor and I have been rambling about from Malaysia.&nbsp; The newly coronated King Ibrahim and his wife also have expressed concern &amp; interest over the catastrophic need for such endeavours.&nbsp; Please sign it.&nbsp;","listText":"This is essentially what the Crown Prince of Johor and I have been rambling about from Malaysia.&nbsp; The newly coronated King Ibrahim and his wife also have expressed concern &amp; interest over the catastrophic need for such endeavours.&nbsp; Please sign it.&nbsp;","text":"This is essentially what the Crown Prince of Johor and I have been rambling about from Malaysia. The newly coronated King Ibrahim and his wife also have expressed concern & interest over the catastrophic need for such endeavours. Please sign it.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/316027910066192","repostId":"1125564499","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1125564499","pubTimestamp":1718182823,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1125564499?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-06-12 17:00","market":"sg","language":"en","title":"Singapore, Malaysia Near Final Pact for Special Economic Zone","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1125564499","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"Malaysia PM says keen to meet potential investors in SingaporeSingapore PM says open to proposals for KL-Singapore railSingapore and Malaysia are close to finalizing plans to develop a special economi","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Malaysia PM says keen to meet potential investors in Singapore</p></li><li><p>Singapore PM says open to proposals for KL-Singapore rail</p></li></ul><p>Singapore and Malaysia are close to finalizing plans to develop a special economic zone that seeks to boost trade and connectivity.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The two neighbors are “very close” to a final agreement on the SEZ in Malaysia’s southern Johor state, the country’s Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim said, citing initial briefings.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">“I would even drop into Singapore to meet the potential investors to encourage them but we have to get the parameters and issues resolved,” Anwar said in Kuala Lumpur on Wednesday at a joint press briefing with Singapore’s Prime Minister Lawrence Wong.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Earlier this year, the two countries agreed to jointly develop the SEZ but have yet to announce a specific location. Johor last month suggested creating a Shenzhen-style hub comprising Iskandar Malaysia, home to struggling property development Forest City, and petrochemical hub Pengerang.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The countries are also working to complete the Rapid Transit System between the Malaysian state’s Johor Bahru city and the northern part of Singapore by 2026. The rail link will have a peak capacity of up to 10,000 passengers per hour per direction.</p><p>“If we can press forward with good master planning, clear and consistent policies around the SEZ, with the RTS coming alongside, I think it will unlock a lot of economic benefit for both sides,” Wong said at the press conference.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Wong added that he’s willing to hear fresh proposals on a high-speed rail line between Kuala Lumpur and Singapore. The on-again, off-again rail link project was terminated in 2021.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The leaders also discussed long-standing issues related to water supply as well as airspace and maritime boundaries in their first meeting since Wong took office in May. Anwar said he hopes to resolve bilateral issues before the annual Singapore-Malaysia leaders’ retreat at the end of the year.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Singapore, Malaysia Near Final Pact for Special Economic Zone</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSingapore, Malaysia Near Final Pact for Special Economic Zone\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-06-12 17:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-12/singapore-malaysia-near-final-pact-for-special-economic-zone?srnd=homepage-asia><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Malaysia PM says keen to meet potential investors in SingaporeSingapore PM says open to proposals for KL-Singapore railSingapore and Malaysia are close to finalizing plans to develop a special ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-12/singapore-malaysia-near-final-pact-for-special-economic-zone?srnd=homepage-asia\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"STI.SI":"富时新加坡海峡指数"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-12/singapore-malaysia-near-final-pact-for-special-economic-zone?srnd=homepage-asia","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1125564499","content_text":"Malaysia PM says keen to meet potential investors in SingaporeSingapore PM says open to proposals for KL-Singapore railSingapore and Malaysia are close to finalizing plans to develop a special economic zone that seeks to boost trade and connectivity.The two neighbors are “very close” to a final agreement on the SEZ in Malaysia’s southern Johor state, the country’s Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim said, citing initial briefings.“I would even drop into Singapore to meet the potential investors to encourage them but we have to get the parameters and issues resolved,” Anwar said in Kuala Lumpur on Wednesday at a joint press briefing with Singapore’s Prime Minister Lawrence Wong.Earlier this year, the two countries agreed to jointly develop the SEZ but have yet to announce a specific location. Johor last month suggested creating a Shenzhen-style hub comprising Iskandar Malaysia, home to struggling property development Forest City, and petrochemical hub Pengerang.The countries are also working to complete the Rapid Transit System between the Malaysian state’s Johor Bahru city and the northern part of Singapore by 2026. The rail link will have a peak capacity of up to 10,000 passengers per hour per direction.“If we can press forward with good master planning, clear and consistent policies around the SEZ, with the RTS coming alongside, I think it will unlock a lot of economic benefit for both sides,” Wong said at the press conference.Wong added that he’s willing to hear fresh proposals on a high-speed rail line between Kuala Lumpur and Singapore. The on-again, off-again rail link project was terminated in 2021.The leaders also discussed long-standing issues related to water supply as well as airspace and maritime boundaries in their first meeting since Wong took office in May. Anwar said he hopes to resolve bilateral issues before the annual Singapore-Malaysia leaders’ retreat at the end of the year.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":135,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":313802540003464,"gmtCreate":1717650486198,"gmtModify":1717652793104,"author":{"id":"4179503792031752","authorId":"4179503792031752","name":"MSA3A","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/838b2d2b99a3e9332e14aa48f904963f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4179503792031752","idStr":"4179503792031752"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Further in need of Ai Securities @ Comissioning. Great man once said an Open Ai is an eye opened.&nbsp;","listText":"Further in need of Ai Securities @ Comissioning. Great man once said an Open Ai is an eye opened.&nbsp;","text":"Further in need of Ai Securities @ Comissioning. Great man once said an Open Ai is an eye opened.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/313802540003464","repostId":"2441756943","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2441756943","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1717650390,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2441756943?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-06-06 13:06","market":"us","language":"en","title":"US Regulators to Open Antitrust Inquiries of Microsoft, OpenAI and Nvidia, NYT Reports","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2441756943","media":"Reuters","summary":"June 5  - The U.S. Justice Department and the Federal Trade Commission have reached a deal that allows them to proceed with antitrust investigations into the dominant roles that Microsoft   , OpenAI and Nvidia    play in the artificial intelligence industry, the New York Times reported on Wednesday, citing people familiar with the matter.  ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>(Reuters) - The U.S. Justice Department and the Federal Trade Commission have reached a deal that allows them to proceed with antitrust investigations into the dominant roles that <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft </a>, OpenAI and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">Nvidia </a> play in the artificial intelligence industry, the New York Times reported on Wednesday, citing people familiar with the matter.</p><p>Under the deal, the U.S. Department of Justice will take the lead in investigating whether Nvidia violated antitrust laws, while the FTC will examine the conduct of OpenAI and Microsoft, the report said. While OpenAI&#39;s parent is a nonprofit, Microsoft has invested, opens new tab $13 billion in a for-profit subsidiary, for what would be a 49% stake.</p><p>The Microsoft-OpenAI partnership is also under informal scrutiny in other regions.</p><p>The regulators struck the deal over the past week and it is expected to be completed in the coming days, the report said, citing two people with knowledge of the matter.</p><p>The FTC is said to be looking into Microsoft&#39;s $650 million deal with AI startup Inflection AI, the Wall Street Journal reported on Thursday, citing a person familiar with the matter.</p><p>The moves signal growing regulatory scrutiny into the AI industry. In January, the FTC ordered OpenAI, Microsoft, Alphabet (GOOGL.O), opens new tab Amazon (AMZN.O), opens new tab and Anthropic to provide information on recent investments and partnerships involving generative AI companies and cloud service providers.</p><p>In July last year, the FTC opened an investigation into OpenAI on claims it had run afoul of consumer protection laws by putting personal reputations and data at risk.</p><p>Last week, U.S. antitrust chief Jonathan Kanter, opens new tab referred to &#34;structures and trends in AI that should give us pause,&#34; at an AI conference, adding that the technology relies on massive amounts of data and computing power, which can give already-dominant firms a substantial advantage.</p><p>Microsoft, OpenAI, Nvidia, the Justice Department and FTC did not immediately respond to requests for comment outside regular business hours.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>US Regulators to Open Antitrust Inquiries of Microsoft, OpenAI and Nvidia, NYT Reports</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUS Regulators to Open Antitrust Inquiries of Microsoft, OpenAI and Nvidia, NYT Reports\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-06-06 13:06</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>(Reuters) - The U.S. Justice Department and the Federal Trade Commission have reached a deal that allows them to proceed with antitrust investigations into the dominant roles that <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft </a>, OpenAI and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">Nvidia </a> play in the artificial intelligence industry, the New York Times reported on Wednesday, citing people familiar with the matter.</p><p>Under the deal, the U.S. Department of Justice will take the lead in investigating whether Nvidia violated antitrust laws, while the FTC will examine the conduct of OpenAI and Microsoft, the report said. While OpenAI&#39;s parent is a nonprofit, Microsoft has invested, opens new tab $13 billion in a for-profit subsidiary, for what would be a 49% stake.</p><p>The Microsoft-OpenAI partnership is also under informal scrutiny in other regions.</p><p>The regulators struck the deal over the past week and it is expected to be completed in the coming days, the report said, citing two people with knowledge of the matter.</p><p>The FTC is said to be looking into Microsoft&#39;s $650 million deal with AI startup Inflection AI, the Wall Street Journal reported on Thursday, citing a person familiar with the matter.</p><p>The moves signal growing regulatory scrutiny into the AI industry. In January, the FTC ordered OpenAI, Microsoft, Alphabet (GOOGL.O), opens new tab Amazon (AMZN.O), opens new tab and Anthropic to provide information on recent investments and partnerships involving generative AI companies and cloud service providers.</p><p>In July last year, the FTC opened an investigation into OpenAI on claims it had run afoul of consumer protection laws by putting personal reputations and data at risk.</p><p>Last week, U.S. antitrust chief Jonathan Kanter, opens new tab referred to &#34;structures and trends in AI that should give us pause,&#34; at an AI conference, adding that the technology relies on massive amounts of data and computing power, which can give already-dominant firms a substantial advantage.</p><p>Microsoft, OpenAI, Nvidia, the Justice Department and FTC did not immediately respond to requests for comment outside regular business hours.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4503":"景林资产持仓","IE00B775SV38.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN US MULTICAP OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00B3S45H60.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Multicap Opportunities A Acc SGD-H","IE0034235295.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE0004445239.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON US FORTY \"A2\" (USD) ACC","IE00BJJMRX11.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD","BK4097":"系统软件","IE00BJTD4V19.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN US LONG SHORT EQUITY \"A1\" (USD) ACC","LU0079474960.USD":"联博美国增长基金A","IE00BDCRKT87.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"ADC\" (USD) INC","GB00BDT5M118.USD":"天利环球扩展Alpha基金A Acc","LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","GB00B4QBRK32.GBP":"FUNDSMITH EQUITY \"R\" (GBP) INC","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0061474960.USD":"天利环球焦点基金AU Acc","IE00BJJMRY28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD","GB00B4LPDJ14.GBP":"FUNDSMITH EQUITY \"R\" (GBP) ACC","IE00BBT3K403.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE TACTICAL DIVIDEND INCOME \"A(USD) ACC","BK4588":"碎股","BK4111":"出版","IE00BKDWB100.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5H\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU0109392836.USD":"富兰克林科技股A","LU0171293334.USD":"贝莱德英国基金A2","BK4516":"特朗普概念","BK4528":"SaaS概念","IE0004445015.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (USD) ACC","BK4592":"伊斯兰概念","LU0175139822.USD":"AB FCP I Global Equity Blend A USD","LU0011850046.USD":"贝莱德全球长线股票 A2 USD","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4567":"ESG概念","BK4576":"AR","IE00B1BXHZ80.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Appreciation A Acc USD","LU0061475181.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) AMERICAN \"AU\" (USD) ACC","BK4566":"资本集团","BK4587":"ChatGPT概念","BK4525":"远程办公概念","IE0034235188.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL FOCUS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0149725797.USD":"汇丰美国股市经济规模基金","IE00BKVL7J92.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Equity Sustainability Leaders A Acc USD","BK4577":"网络游戏","LU0127658192.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE0009356076.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION \"A2\" (USD) ACC","IE00BJTD4N35.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Long Short Equity A1  Acc SGD-H","BK4579":"人工智能","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓"},"source_url":"https://api.rkd.refinitiv.com/api/News/News.svc/REST/News_1/RetrieveStoryML_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2441756943","content_text":"(Reuters) - The U.S. Justice Department and the Federal Trade Commission have reached a deal that allows them to proceed with antitrust investigations into the dominant roles that Microsoft , OpenAI and Nvidia  play in the artificial intelligence industry, the New York Times reported on Wednesday, citing people familiar with the matter.Under the deal, the U.S. Department of Justice will take the lead in investigating whether Nvidia violated antitrust laws, while the FTC will examine the conduct of OpenAI and Microsoft, the report said. While OpenAI's parent is a nonprofit, Microsoft has invested, opens new tab $13 billion in a for-profit subsidiary, for what would be a 49% stake.The Microsoft-OpenAI partnership is also under informal scrutiny in other regions.The regulators struck the deal over the past week and it is expected to be completed in the coming days, the report said, citing two people with knowledge of the matter.The FTC is said to be looking into Microsoft's $650 million deal with AI startup Inflection AI, the Wall Street Journal reported on Thursday, citing a person familiar with the matter.The moves signal growing regulatory scrutiny into the AI industry. In January, the FTC ordered OpenAI, Microsoft, Alphabet (GOOGL.O), opens new tab Amazon (AMZN.O), opens new tab and Anthropic to provide information on recent investments and partnerships involving generative AI companies and cloud service providers.In July last year, the FTC opened an investigation into OpenAI on claims it had run afoul of consumer protection laws by putting personal reputations and data at risk.Last week, U.S. antitrust chief Jonathan Kanter, opens new tab referred to \"structures and trends in AI that should give us pause,\" at an AI conference, adding that the technology relies on massive amounts of data and computing power, which can give already-dominant firms a substantial advantage.Microsoft, OpenAI, Nvidia, the Justice Department and FTC did not immediately respond to requests for comment outside regular business hours.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":164,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":311150983819384,"gmtCreate":1716970121847,"gmtModify":1716973274064,"author":{"id":"4179503792031752","authorId":"4179503792031752","name":"MSA3A","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/838b2d2b99a3e9332e14aa48f904963f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4179503792031752","idStr":"4179503792031752"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Kutzbah","listText":"Kutzbah","text":"Kutzbah","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/311150983819384","repostId":"2439803538","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2439803538","pubTimestamp":1716960562,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2439803538?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-05-29 13:29","market":"fut","language":"en","title":"Tesla's iPhone Moment","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2439803538","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Both the Electric Vehicle industry and Tesla, Inc. have lost sales momentum.Tesla is situated well within the auto industry, but the company must successfully restructure.Tesla will pivot to high-volu","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Both the Electric Vehicle industry and Tesla, Inc. have lost sales momentum.</p></li><li><p>Tesla is situated well within the auto industry, but the company must successfully restructure.</p></li><li><p>Tesla will pivot to high-volume, affordable cars and push its “Full Self Driving” subscription service.</p></li><li><p>A great method of comparing peer valuations is using Enterprise Value.</p></li><li><p>I created a DCF model as a “check” on Tesla stock valuation.</p></li></ul><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/15402ca3ce706835733f8b286527cedb\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\"/></p><p>jetcityimage</p><p></p><h2 id=\"id_1876793236\">Thesis</h2><p>Magnificent 7 shares have run up sharply despite high interest rates. Concurrently, <strong>Tesla, Inc.</strong> (NASDAQ:TSLA) stock is suffering from a cacophony of bad publicity, an overvalued share price, and weakening industry fundamentals. I will explain how Tesla remains well positioned within the automobile industry despite its shortcomings.</p><p>Two disastrous back-to-back quarters have motivated CEO Elon Musk to restructure Tesla. I believe Musk will pivot from producing premium cars towards high-volume economical vehicles that utilize its FSD (“full self-driving”) subscription plan. I’ll show how Tesla could benefit from this new strategy using a financial model and discounted cash flow. Furthermore, I will also demonstrate ways of determining Tesla’s proper valuation, despite controversies over what kind of company it truly is.</p><h2 id=\"id_28010681\">Introduction</h2><p><strong>Tesla</strong> is often described as an automaker, and increasingly, as a clean-energy company that’s had its fair share of near-death experiences. Understanding Tesla is similar to understanding cryptocurrencies with its “second-order thinking.” Once you get past the Ponzi-scheme allegations and mercurial leader, you’ll see a broader vision of things to come. This article focuses on Tesla, the EV (Electric Vehicle) manufacturer, and its evolution to an FSD subscription model.</p><h2 id=\"id_2544396275\">Tesla’s Position and Industry Structure</h2><p>I rate Tesla “<strong>Above Average</strong>” using the Five-Forces Industry Analysis (after Harvard’s Michael Porter) and Innovation analysis (by Clayton Christensen). Tesla benefits from its strong business position, low-cost production, vertical integration, somewhat-low threats from existing ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) legacy makers (GM, Ford, Chrysler/Fiat), protection from competitive Chinese automakers, and weak credit profiles from other EV manufacturers (Faraday, Fisker, Lucid, Polestar, Rivian). Tesla’s greatest threat is Waymo, which may not be cost-competitive with Tesla, given Waymo’s use of complex autonomous subsystems. Legacy players announced plans to reduce their aggressive strategy to scale-up EV models due to inconsistent demand and production bottlenecks, and they must deal with high-cost unionized labor. Hence, Tesla remains in a strong “pole-position.”</p><h2 id=\"id_456238874\">EV Industry Weakness</h2><p>Since we’ve already hit a “tipping point” of EV unit sales, I expected a “J-Curve” of rapid adoption. Instead, several factors halted this transition. I believe the primary reason for the slowing EV sales was the “pull-forward” from the Biden Administration’s EV tax incentives. Bleeding-edge folks already adopted EVs and the mainstream consumer worries over “range anxiety.” EV’s share of total car sales has halted at 8% and EV prices need to decline below ICE prices ($46,997) to boost sales. Ark Invest expects 90% of EV market share once average selling prices fall to $20,000. EV versus internal combustion engine (&#34;ICE&#34;) prices are below.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/400e96eb8ed27692e0e13de3573060ff\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"274\"/></p><p>Cox Automotive</p><p></p><h2 id=\"id_2653607460\">Tesla’s Disaster</h2><p>Dan Ives, one of the most outspoken analysts, called Tesla’s Q4 ’23 and 1Q ’24 earnings reports an “unmitigated disaster.” A laundry-list of well-telegraphed issues are bulleted below:</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Decelerating unit sales</p></li><li><p>Weaker average selling prices due to pricing &amp; mix</p></li><li><p>Lack of new car models and dependence on the Model Y</p></li><li><p>An arson attack in Gigafactory, Berlin</p></li><li><p>Production issues related to Model 3 and Cybertruck ramp-ups</p></li><li><p>Hesitant purchasers due to Elon Musk’s rants.</p></li></ul><h2 id=\"id_1991622630\">How Are Investors Valuing Tesla?</h2><p>I agree with analysts that times are tough for Tesla, but I’m a long-term investor, so should I really care? My preferred valuation method is utilizing <strong>Enterprise Value/Forward Revenues</strong>, which can be used on any company, in any industry, regardless of earnings, and it adjusts for balance sheet cash.</p><p>I think we can all agree that Tesla is <strong>more</strong> than a car company and its valuation should reflect a blend between an Automaker and Tech company growing at 8-10% (or 18% for its LT growth). This would place Tesla’s EV/Revenues between 1.3x (Premium automaker) and 7.5x (SaaS Software) with a midpoint around 3x (similar to the S&amp;P 500’s). Today’s EV/Revenue valuation of 5.6x remains expensive. This suggests Tesla’ price could decline 50% to approximately $90, though technically, there’s strong support in the $100 area. This 50% share-price cut assumes that investors think that half of the company is Tech (which may not be true). Also note that Tesla’s shares last bottomed at 2x EV/Revenues during 11/19.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/70396a3b970c723e2600c7d1cd5bd6c3\" tg-width=\"562\" tg-height=\"324\"/></p><p>Author&#39;s Creation</p><p></p><h2 id=\"id_2811957917\">Tesla’s Restructuring</h2><p>It appears that Tesla’s in a “bad place” again. Could Tesla shift its strategy to reset itself ? As many are aware, Tesla has been aggressively restructuring. I believe Tesla could exit the other side by becoming more like an Apple iPhone (using a Razor Razor-blade strategy). Customers often say that the cars remind them of iPhones due to their glasslike paint, software updates, user-friendly interface, “iPad screen,” and minimalist design. The next step could be changing its business strategy to a subscription model.</p><p>I created a Financial Model to incorporate this new strategy into 2038. I project that Tesla will substantially reduce its profit margins and free cash flow in its automobile business but boost cash flow from its subscription-based FSD business. I also expect Tesla to offer its own and third-party applications in its Tesla Mobile App; however, these are <strong>not</strong> included in my projections. Historically, the hugely profitable Apple App-store and Razor blade strategies have had strong moats, except for antitrust losses. Tesla wouldn’t be subject to these lawsuits, given the proprietary nature of FSD. My Tesla Financial Model includes “Tesla Core” and “New Tesla” which incorporates nearly one dozen models for each new business unit (e.g., Robotaxi, Optimus...). The segment data below is <strong>only</strong> for Tesla Core.</p><h2 id=\"id_1596740891\">Auto Unit</h2><p>I project that unit sales of all cars (Model S, 3, X, Y…) grow slightly in 2024 to 1.85MM cars. This growth is down sharply from 2023’s 38%. While Tesla’s Auto free cash flows (FCF) have been high over the last few years (~ $17Bn) I project 2024 will have a loss of nearly $2.8Bn. Tesla’s unique and vertically integrated operations have boosted historical FCF margins (i.e., FCF/Revenues) to well over 9%. One would expect that a much larger scaled operation and new production processes to continue boosting FCF margins. <strong>However, I believe Tesla will artificially suppress margins to no higher than 4% during the forecast period with the goal of increasing unit sales and market share.</strong></p><p>Consequently, I expect unit sales to rebound in 2025 and grow at a CAGR of 29% from 2025 through 2029. Helping boost sales will be Tesla’s compact car (code-named “Redwood”) that will lower ASP (Average Selling Prices). Concurrently, global EV sales (including hybrids) are forecast to rise from 14.1MM units in 2023 to 37MM units by 2030 (Source: International Energy Agency). I expect Tesla’s EV market share to rise from 13% in 2023 to 18% by 2028 and 21% by 2030.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/32bf782597a1b231cd5549a5efa6dbd8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"213\"/></p><p>Author&#39;s creation, IHS Industry projections</p><p></p><h2 id=\"id_1874926894\">“Full Self-Driving”</h2><p>Tesla sells Level 2 ADAS (Advanced Driver Assistance Systems) to its customers using what it calls &#34;Full Self Driving Capability.&#34; Having seen Tesla’s FSD in action, it’s clear that it’s at least at Level 3; however, one could assume it is fully autonomous (Level 6) given its nomenclature (hence the lawsuits).</p><p>Last year, Tesla rolled out FSD version 12. New Tesla investors may not realize it, but FSD 12 isn’t just the 12th iteration of FSD, but the first version of a whole new way of autonomous driving. Instead of having every single driving situation hard-coded, V12 uses an AI trained Neural Network. Despite coming from a high-base, Miles-Driven with FSD rose from 56% growth in 4Q ’23 to 73%, to 1.3Bn miles, as of 1Q ’24.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/465ea0442d045206fac714c02a38d301\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"342\"/></p><p>Tesla</p><p></p><p>While I expect Tesla’s auto sales to have low FCF margins, its FSD segment will likely maintain high margins due to mostly “sunk-costs.” At first glance, this goes against the grain of Tesla’s recent 50% price cut to $100/month for FSD (or $8,000 one-time payment) but I think we can all agree that the “attach rate” would be hindered at high prices. I project a 50% “attach rate” of Tesla’s fleet using FSD, rising to 70% by 2028. Tesla’s FSD revenue growth is supported by forecasts from McKinsey (see below).</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/775eab9bed72f0d080becca814bc7c77\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"359\"/></p><p>McKinsey</p><p></p><p>I also expect Tesla to license its FSD to legacy carmakers beginning in 2028 at $200/month. If Tesla follows through with its Robotaxi by 2028 (Musk has said it could launch as soon as this year under human-supervision) that could add substantial licensing dollars <strong>not </strong>included in this model.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1ee33c27f7b15e87fc5ce7e7d274fc9d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"207\"/></p><p>Author&#39;s creation</p><p></p><h2 id=\"id_642404909\">Tesla Truck Unit:</h2><p>My Tesla “Truck” projections, meaning Class 8 Semis, are conservative as Ryder Systems recently published a study showing that EV trucks are not economical and too expensive to maintain. By 2028, I project 81k unit sales at $207k/unit, with ASP declining 3% per year. For perspective, Paccar forecasts 788k global unit sales by 2028 (see Industry Class 8 sales below). On 5/24, Tesla announced it will finally start producing trucks in 2025 (over eight years late if we exclude the pilot production for PepsiCo).</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/cd716b1f75ce8c03474f3cb4c3cab871\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"178\"/></p><p>Author&#39;s creation, Paccar industry forecast</p><p></p><h2 id=\"id_891172600\">Insurance &amp; Charging</h2><p>Tesla’s Insurance business is small and conducted more as a “service” to customers that cannot find affordable coverage. I forecast Tesla charges $3,300/car based on blended auto insurance rates for those states Tesla sells into, according to data supplied by Insurance.com.</p><p>I forecast Tesla’s EV charging business will grow sharply but operate at a FCF loss for several years (as per a McKinsey White paper and Wedbush’s Dan Ives) which now explains recent mass layoffs in this unit. Revenue/Port is expected to rise now that Tesla’s charging model has become the standard for most automakers.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5d6a463346925077cf94f219c5419e52\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"192\"/></p><p>Author&#39;s creation</p><p></p><h2 id=\"id_97855532\">Energy Generation &amp; Storage</h2><p>I believe that Tesla’s Energy Storage segment offers the most promise. The company aggregates residential and commercial storage together, which doesn’t do justice to the FCF powerhouse in selling commercial Megapacks. It’s basically a giant battery used in power stations to help manage the flow of electricity on the grid. A Megapack (~ $1.5MM each excl. installation costs) holds a huge 3.9 MWh which can power 3,600 homes for one hour. I forecast the Energy Storage unit will grow much faster than Generation (which sells cheap residential solar panels and pricier solar-roofs). In contrast, the Megapack business has a two-year backlog and just received approval for a Chinese factory that will start producing 10,000 units by 2025. For perspective, the Chinese fab will be able to annually produce over <strong>twice</strong> the revenues of the combined Energy Generation and Storage Unit’s 2023’s revenues.</p><p>Given the strong backlog, I forecast rapid revenue and FCF growth during the forecast period. This aligns with industry projections for “Energy Battery US Storage Revenue” provided by Grand-View Research below and anecdotal commentaries.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/cd9b26e85008cc8c5148afb5678680d3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"294\"/></p><p>Author&#39;s creation, Grand-view Research projections</p><p></p><h2 id=\"id_3320584169\">DCF Model</h2><p>The DCF Model projects each unit going out to 2038 – thereafter, I project a conservative 3% growth rate in FCF. I calculated a conservative (i.e., high) WACC of 10.4% using a Beta of 1.65 and a 5% cost of debt, blended at 65% Equity and 35% Debt proportions. I use a high Shares Outstanding of 4.5Bn (vs. today’s 3.5Bn) to account for Elon’s hefty share compensation; however, I don’t foresee future capital raises.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/76c9b3898c81c5c1fb70b475bc39abf8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"190\"/></p><p>Author&#39;s creation</p><p></p><p>The Model’s calculated value is 20% above the present-day’s stock price. More aggressive assumptions yield calculated values 50% higher than today’s stock price. Still, given the sensitivity to assumptions and execution risk, I don’t think this is enough margin to support the shares. Hence, I still think Tesla’s shares could decline another 40-45% until investors feel comfortable with the risk and until its revenues are mostly Tech-based (see pie chart). <strong>Remember…investors are focused solely on the EV business</strong>.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4f38ee6c55107fcac4154b9096725bf3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"385\"/></p><p>Author&#39;s creation</p><p></p><h2 id=\"id_446247861\">Explaining My Buy Rating</h2><p>Despite my above near-term bearishness, I rate Tesla a “Buy” as Seeking Alpha doesn’t have a short-term rating. Further, my “New Tesla” DCF model reflects another half-dozen new businesses that, I believe, will evolve Tesla into an AI and robotics powerhouse.</p><h2 id=\"id_4138428498\">Conclusion:</h2><p>I’ve never seen such a large company with a “Do or Die” plan. Tesla has the chance to become the most consequential company in history. Readers interested in knowing more about Tesla’s moonshots are encouraged to read its Master Plan. Shh, it’s a “secret.”</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla's iPhone Moment</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla's iPhone Moment\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-05-29 13:29 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4696041-tesla-iphone-moment><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Both the Electric Vehicle industry and Tesla, Inc. have lost sales momentum.Tesla is situated well within the auto industry, but the company must successfully restructure.Tesla will pivot to high-...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4696041-tesla-iphone-moment\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU1720051017.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence AT Acc H2-SGD","AAPL":"苹果","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4515":"5G概念","LU0289961442.SGD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"AX\" (SGD) ACC","LU1861558580.USD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B","BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓","LU0127658192.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0149725797.USD":"汇丰美国股市经济规模基金","LU0689472784.USD":"安联收益及增长基金Cl AM AT Acc","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","LU1551013425.SGD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS H2-SGD","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","IE00BJTD4N35.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Long Short Equity A1  Acc SGD-H","LU2756315318.SGD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMG\" (SGDHDG) INC A","BK4555":"新能源车","LU0256863811.USD":"ALLIANZ US EQUITY \"A\" INC","BK4566":"资本集团","IE00B775SV38.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN US MULTICAP OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","TSLA":"特斯拉","LU0943347566.SGD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金AM H2-SGD","LU2357305700.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence ET H2-SGD","IE00B3S45H60.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Multicap Opportunities A Acc SGD-H","LU1839511570.USD":"WELLS FARGO GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"I\" (USD) ACC","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","IE0004445239.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON US FORTY \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU1861559042.SGD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B SGD","LU1435385759.SGD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity RA SGD-H","IE00BJJMRX11.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD","IE00BJTD4V19.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN US LONG SHORT EQUITY \"A1\" (USD) ACC","LU1551013342.USD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS USD","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0353189680.USD":"富国美国全盘成长基金Cl A Acc","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","IE00BKDWB100.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5H\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU1914381329.SGD":"Allianz Best Styles Global Equity Cl ET Acc H2-SGD","LU2249611893.SGD":"BNP PARIBAS ENERGY TRANSITION \"CRH\" (SGD) ACC","LU0820561909.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AM\" (HKD) INC","BK4512":"苹果概念","BK4099":"汽车制造商","BK4511":"特斯拉概念","LU2756315664.SGD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMI\" (SGDHDG) INC","LU0011850046.USD":"贝莱德全球长线股票 A2 USD","IE0004445015.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","LU2087621335.USD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4696041-tesla-iphone-moment","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2439803538","content_text":"Both the Electric Vehicle industry and Tesla, Inc. have lost sales momentum.Tesla is situated well within the auto industry, but the company must successfully restructure.Tesla will pivot to high-volume, affordable cars and push its “Full Self Driving” subscription service.A great method of comparing peer valuations is using Enterprise Value.I created a DCF model as a “check” on Tesla stock valuation.jetcityimageThesisMagnificent 7 shares have run up sharply despite high interest rates. Concurrently, Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) stock is suffering from a cacophony of bad publicity, an overvalued share price, and weakening industry fundamentals. I will explain how Tesla remains well positioned within the automobile industry despite its shortcomings.Two disastrous back-to-back quarters have motivated CEO Elon Musk to restructure Tesla. I believe Musk will pivot from producing premium cars towards high-volume economical vehicles that utilize its FSD (“full self-driving”) subscription plan. I’ll show how Tesla could benefit from this new strategy using a financial model and discounted cash flow. Furthermore, I will also demonstrate ways of determining Tesla’s proper valuation, despite controversies over what kind of company it truly is.IntroductionTesla is often described as an automaker, and increasingly, as a clean-energy company that’s had its fair share of near-death experiences. Understanding Tesla is similar to understanding cryptocurrencies with its “second-order thinking.” Once you get past the Ponzi-scheme allegations and mercurial leader, you’ll see a broader vision of things to come. This article focuses on Tesla, the EV (Electric Vehicle) manufacturer, and its evolution to an FSD subscription model.Tesla’s Position and Industry StructureI rate Tesla “Above Average” using the Five-Forces Industry Analysis (after Harvard’s Michael Porter) and Innovation analysis (by Clayton Christensen). Tesla benefits from its strong business position, low-cost production, vertical integration, somewhat-low threats from existing ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) legacy makers (GM, Ford, Chrysler/Fiat), protection from competitive Chinese automakers, and weak credit profiles from other EV manufacturers (Faraday, Fisker, Lucid, Polestar, Rivian). Tesla’s greatest threat is Waymo, which may not be cost-competitive with Tesla, given Waymo’s use of complex autonomous subsystems. Legacy players announced plans to reduce their aggressive strategy to scale-up EV models due to inconsistent demand and production bottlenecks, and they must deal with high-cost unionized labor. Hence, Tesla remains in a strong “pole-position.”EV Industry WeaknessSince we’ve already hit a “tipping point” of EV unit sales, I expected a “J-Curve” of rapid adoption. Instead, several factors halted this transition. I believe the primary reason for the slowing EV sales was the “pull-forward” from the Biden Administration’s EV tax incentives. Bleeding-edge folks already adopted EVs and the mainstream consumer worries over “range anxiety.” EV’s share of total car sales has halted at 8% and EV prices need to decline below ICE prices ($46,997) to boost sales. Ark Invest expects 90% of EV market share once average selling prices fall to $20,000. EV versus internal combustion engine (\"ICE\") prices are below.Cox AutomotiveTesla’s DisasterDan Ives, one of the most outspoken analysts, called Tesla’s Q4 ’23 and 1Q ’24 earnings reports an “unmitigated disaster.” A laundry-list of well-telegraphed issues are bulleted below:Decelerating unit salesWeaker average selling prices due to pricing & mixLack of new car models and dependence on the Model YAn arson attack in Gigafactory, BerlinProduction issues related to Model 3 and Cybertruck ramp-upsHesitant purchasers due to Elon Musk’s rants.How Are Investors Valuing Tesla?I agree with analysts that times are tough for Tesla, but I’m a long-term investor, so should I really care? My preferred valuation method is utilizing Enterprise Value/Forward Revenues, which can be used on any company, in any industry, regardless of earnings, and it adjusts for balance sheet cash.I think we can all agree that Tesla is more than a car company and its valuation should reflect a blend between an Automaker and Tech company growing at 8-10% (or 18% for its LT growth). This would place Tesla’s EV/Revenues between 1.3x (Premium automaker) and 7.5x (SaaS Software) with a midpoint around 3x (similar to the S&P 500’s). Today’s EV/Revenue valuation of 5.6x remains expensive. This suggests Tesla’ price could decline 50% to approximately $90, though technically, there’s strong support in the $100 area. This 50% share-price cut assumes that investors think that half of the company is Tech (which may not be true). Also note that Tesla’s shares last bottomed at 2x EV/Revenues during 11/19.Author's CreationTesla’s RestructuringIt appears that Tesla’s in a “bad place” again. Could Tesla shift its strategy to reset itself ? As many are aware, Tesla has been aggressively restructuring. I believe Tesla could exit the other side by becoming more like an Apple iPhone (using a Razor Razor-blade strategy). Customers often say that the cars remind them of iPhones due to their glasslike paint, software updates, user-friendly interface, “iPad screen,” and minimalist design. The next step could be changing its business strategy to a subscription model.I created a Financial Model to incorporate this new strategy into 2038. I project that Tesla will substantially reduce its profit margins and free cash flow in its automobile business but boost cash flow from its subscription-based FSD business. I also expect Tesla to offer its own and third-party applications in its Tesla Mobile App; however, these are not included in my projections. Historically, the hugely profitable Apple App-store and Razor blade strategies have had strong moats, except for antitrust losses. Tesla wouldn’t be subject to these lawsuits, given the proprietary nature of FSD. My Tesla Financial Model includes “Tesla Core” and “New Tesla” which incorporates nearly one dozen models for each new business unit (e.g., Robotaxi, Optimus...). The segment data below is only for Tesla Core.Auto UnitI project that unit sales of all cars (Model S, 3, X, Y…) grow slightly in 2024 to 1.85MM cars. This growth is down sharply from 2023’s 38%. While Tesla’s Auto free cash flows (FCF) have been high over the last few years (~ $17Bn) I project 2024 will have a loss of nearly $2.8Bn. Tesla’s unique and vertically integrated operations have boosted historical FCF margins (i.e., FCF/Revenues) to well over 9%. One would expect that a much larger scaled operation and new production processes to continue boosting FCF margins. However, I believe Tesla will artificially suppress margins to no higher than 4% during the forecast period with the goal of increasing unit sales and market share.Consequently, I expect unit sales to rebound in 2025 and grow at a CAGR of 29% from 2025 through 2029. Helping boost sales will be Tesla’s compact car (code-named “Redwood”) that will lower ASP (Average Selling Prices). Concurrently, global EV sales (including hybrids) are forecast to rise from 14.1MM units in 2023 to 37MM units by 2030 (Source: International Energy Agency). I expect Tesla’s EV market share to rise from 13% in 2023 to 18% by 2028 and 21% by 2030.Author's creation, IHS Industry projections“Full Self-Driving”Tesla sells Level 2 ADAS (Advanced Driver Assistance Systems) to its customers using what it calls \"Full Self Driving Capability.\" Having seen Tesla’s FSD in action, it’s clear that it’s at least at Level 3; however, one could assume it is fully autonomous (Level 6) given its nomenclature (hence the lawsuits).Last year, Tesla rolled out FSD version 12. New Tesla investors may not realize it, but FSD 12 isn’t just the 12th iteration of FSD, but the first version of a whole new way of autonomous driving. Instead of having every single driving situation hard-coded, V12 uses an AI trained Neural Network. Despite coming from a high-base, Miles-Driven with FSD rose from 56% growth in 4Q ’23 to 73%, to 1.3Bn miles, as of 1Q ’24.TeslaWhile I expect Tesla’s auto sales to have low FCF margins, its FSD segment will likely maintain high margins due to mostly “sunk-costs.” At first glance, this goes against the grain of Tesla’s recent 50% price cut to $100/month for FSD (or $8,000 one-time payment) but I think we can all agree that the “attach rate” would be hindered at high prices. I project a 50% “attach rate” of Tesla’s fleet using FSD, rising to 70% by 2028. Tesla’s FSD revenue growth is supported by forecasts from McKinsey (see below).McKinseyI also expect Tesla to license its FSD to legacy carmakers beginning in 2028 at $200/month. If Tesla follows through with its Robotaxi by 2028 (Musk has said it could launch as soon as this year under human-supervision) that could add substantial licensing dollars not included in this model.Author's creationTesla Truck Unit:My Tesla “Truck” projections, meaning Class 8 Semis, are conservative as Ryder Systems recently published a study showing that EV trucks are not economical and too expensive to maintain. By 2028, I project 81k unit sales at $207k/unit, with ASP declining 3% per year. For perspective, Paccar forecasts 788k global unit sales by 2028 (see Industry Class 8 sales below). On 5/24, Tesla announced it will finally start producing trucks in 2025 (over eight years late if we exclude the pilot production for PepsiCo).Author's creation, Paccar industry forecastInsurance & ChargingTesla’s Insurance business is small and conducted more as a “service” to customers that cannot find affordable coverage. I forecast Tesla charges $3,300/car based on blended auto insurance rates for those states Tesla sells into, according to data supplied by Insurance.com.I forecast Tesla’s EV charging business will grow sharply but operate at a FCF loss for several years (as per a McKinsey White paper and Wedbush’s Dan Ives) which now explains recent mass layoffs in this unit. Revenue/Port is expected to rise now that Tesla’s charging model has become the standard for most automakers.Author's creationEnergy Generation & StorageI believe that Tesla’s Energy Storage segment offers the most promise. The company aggregates residential and commercial storage together, which doesn’t do justice to the FCF powerhouse in selling commercial Megapacks. It’s basically a giant battery used in power stations to help manage the flow of electricity on the grid. A Megapack (~ $1.5MM each excl. installation costs) holds a huge 3.9 MWh which can power 3,600 homes for one hour. I forecast the Energy Storage unit will grow much faster than Generation (which sells cheap residential solar panels and pricier solar-roofs). In contrast, the Megapack business has a two-year backlog and just received approval for a Chinese factory that will start producing 10,000 units by 2025. For perspective, the Chinese fab will be able to annually produce over twice the revenues of the combined Energy Generation and Storage Unit’s 2023’s revenues.Given the strong backlog, I forecast rapid revenue and FCF growth during the forecast period. This aligns with industry projections for “Energy Battery US Storage Revenue” provided by Grand-View Research below and anecdotal commentaries.Author's creation, Grand-view Research projectionsDCF ModelThe DCF Model projects each unit going out to 2038 – thereafter, I project a conservative 3% growth rate in FCF. I calculated a conservative (i.e., high) WACC of 10.4% using a Beta of 1.65 and a 5% cost of debt, blended at 65% Equity and 35% Debt proportions. I use a high Shares Outstanding of 4.5Bn (vs. today’s 3.5Bn) to account for Elon’s hefty share compensation; however, I don’t foresee future capital raises.Author's creationThe Model’s calculated value is 20% above the present-day’s stock price. More aggressive assumptions yield calculated values 50% higher than today’s stock price. Still, given the sensitivity to assumptions and execution risk, I don’t think this is enough margin to support the shares. Hence, I still think Tesla’s shares could decline another 40-45% until investors feel comfortable with the risk and until its revenues are mostly Tech-based (see pie chart). Remember…investors are focused solely on the EV business.Author's creationExplaining My Buy RatingDespite my above near-term bearishness, I rate Tesla a “Buy” as Seeking Alpha doesn’t have a short-term rating. Further, my “New Tesla” DCF model reflects another half-dozen new businesses that, I believe, will evolve Tesla into an AI and robotics powerhouse.Conclusion:I’ve never seen such a large company with a “Do or Die” plan. Tesla has the chance to become the most consequential company in history. Readers interested in knowing more about Tesla’s moonshots are encouraged to read its Master Plan. Shh, it’s a “secret.”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":194,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":316066278383896,"gmtCreate":1718194363366,"gmtModify":1718194367466,"author":{"id":"4179503792031752","authorId":"4179503792031752","name":"MSA3A","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/838b2d2b99a3e9332e14aa48f904963f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4179503792031752","authorIdStr":"4179503792031752"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Baker Hughes &amp; Maersk are one too. Brilliant riggers from Blackstone Inc's No.1 private equity firm in the world. Michelle Farrah &amp; Sandra Cooper&nbsp;","listText":"Baker Hughes &amp; Maersk are one too. Brilliant riggers from Blackstone Inc's No.1 private equity firm in the world. Michelle Farrah &amp; Sandra Cooper&nbsp;","text":"Baker Hughes & Maersk are one too. Brilliant riggers from Blackstone Inc's No.1 private equity firm in the world. Michelle Farrah & Sandra Cooper","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/316066278383896","repostId":"2442587047","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2442587047","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1718193990,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2442587047?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-06-12 20:06","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The World Will Be Swimming in Excess Oil by End of Decade, IEA Says","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2442587047","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"Global oil markets are headed toward a major glut this decade, a global energy watchdog forecast, citing surging supplies and slowing demand growth for crude thanks to lower-emissions energy sources.Oil-demand growth is set to peak by 2029 and start to contract the following year, reaching 105.4 million barrels a day in 2030 as the rollout of clean-energy technologies accelerates, according to the Paris-based organization. Meanwhile, oil-production capacity is set to ramp up to nearly 113.8 million barrels a day, driven by producers in the U.S. and the Americas.Despite the slowdown, global oil demand in 2030 is still forecast to rise by 3.2 million barrels a day from 2023, the agency said. The increase will be driven by strong demand from economies in Asia--particularly by a surge of petrol use in India and a booming petrochemical sector in China. But rising electric-car sales, fuel-efficiency improvements and the use of renewables for electricity generation will increasingly offset ga","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Global oil markets are headed toward a major glut this decade, a global energy watchdog forecast, citing surging supplies and slowing demand growth for crude thanks to lower-emissions energy sources.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The International Energy Agency, whose members include the world’s biggest oil consumers, predicted in its closely watched medium-term oil market report that so-called spare capacity—the amount of pumping capacity left unused because of adequate supply—could surge in coming years to levels only seen during the Covid-19 pandemic.  </p><p>Oil-demand growth is set to peak by 2029 and start to contract the next year, reaching 105.4 million barrels a day in 2030 as the rollout of clean-energy technologies accelerates, according to the Paris-based organization. Meanwhile, oil-production capacity is set to increase to nearly 113.8 million barrels a day, driven by producers in the U.S. and the Americas.</p><p>“This would result in levels of spare capacity never seen before other than at the height of the Covid-19 lockdowns in 2020,” the IEA said on Wednesday. “Such a massive oil production buffer could usher in a lower oil price environment, posing tough challenges for producers in the U.S. shale patch and the OPEC+ bloc.”</p><p>Despite the slowdown, global oil demand in 2030 is still forecast to rise by 3.2 million barrels a day from 2023, the agency said. The increase will be driven by strong demand from economies in Asia, particularly in India and China. But rising electric-car sales, fuel-efficiency improvements and the use of renewables for electricity generation will increasingly offset gains.</p><p>In advanced economies, demand is forecast to fall from around 45.7 million barrels per day in 2023 to 42.7 million barrels per day in 2030. Excluding the pandemic, the last time that oil demand was that low was in 1991, according to the IEA.</p><p>Meanwhile, global production capacity growth will be led by producers outside of the OPEC+ alliance—particularly the U.S., Brazil, Canada, Argentina and Guyana—which are forecast to account for three quarters of the expected increase to 2030.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">OPEC+ oil-production capacity is forecast to grow by 1.4 million barrels a day from 2023 through 2030, led by Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Iraq. According to the IEA, the group’s total oil market share dropped to 48.5% this year—the lowest since the alliance was formed in 2016—due to its voluntary output curbs.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The IEA cited various risks to its demand forecast, including economic growth estimates, the trajectory of oil prices and the pace of adoption of electric vehicles worldwide.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">In the short term, the agency cut its forecast for global oil-demand growth to 960,000 barrels a day this year from previous estimates of 1.1 million barrels a day, as weak deliveries in OECD countries pushed global demand in a narrow contraction in March.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Oil-demand growth for next year is now forecast at 1 million barrels a day, down from 1.2 million barrels a day previously, on lackluster economic growth, the increasing use of electric vehicles and efficiency gains. Total demand is expected to reach an average of 103.2 million barrels a day in 2024 and 104.2 million barrels a day in 2025.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Wednesday’s reports came as Brent crude trades around $82 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate is around $78 a barrel. Both benchmarks rallied about 3% earlier this week as traders seem to be buying on the back of a dip following an oil selloff sparked by OPEC+’s plan to unwind some of its production cuts.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Prices are supported by expectations that summer fuel demand and output curbs from OPEC+ will lead to a sizable deficit in the third quarter. Bearish sentiment continues to dominate the market, with prospects of higher-for-longer interest rates in the U.S. damping the commodity’s demand outlook.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The agency’s projections remain well below OPEC’s. The cartel forecasts global oil-demand growth of 2.2 million barrels a day this year and 1.8 million barrels a day in 2025.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Total oil supply is now expected to be higher, reaching an average of 102.9 million barrels a day this year and 104.7 million barrels a day the next from previous expectations of 102.7 million barrels a day and 104.5 million barrels a day, respectively, the IEA said. Non-OPEC+ countries are still set to lead global supply, the agency said, with production expected to grow by 1.4 million barrels a day in 2024 and 1.5 million barrels a day in 2025.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">OPEC+ production is forecast to fall 740,000 barrels a day this year if the group keeps its voluntary output cuts in place, and to flip to a growth of 320,000 barrels a day the next. The cartel and its allies agreed to extend voluntary curbs of 2.2 million barrels a day to the end of September and said they aim to gradually unwind them from October 2024 to September 2025, contingent on market conditions.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Meanwhile, Russian crude exports rose by 100,000 barrels a day in May to 7.7 million barrels a day, while export revenue fell 0.6% compared with the previous month to $16.8 billion, the IEA said. Russia’s oil production is expected to decrease by 260,000 barrels a day this year to 10.7 million barrels a day as the country carries out deeper OPEC+ production cuts, but supply is forecast to remain broadly steady through 2030 supported by the Vostok Oil project in the Arctic.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The World Will Be Swimming in Excess Oil by End of Decade, IEA Says</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe World Will Be Swimming in Excess Oil by End of Decade, IEA Says\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-06-12 20:06</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Global oil markets are headed toward a major glut this decade, a global energy watchdog forecast, citing surging supplies and slowing demand growth for crude thanks to lower-emissions energy sources.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The International Energy Agency, whose members include the world’s biggest oil consumers, predicted in its closely watched medium-term oil market report that so-called spare capacity—the amount of pumping capacity left unused because of adequate supply—could surge in coming years to levels only seen during the Covid-19 pandemic.  </p><p>Oil-demand growth is set to peak by 2029 and start to contract the next year, reaching 105.4 million barrels a day in 2030 as the rollout of clean-energy technologies accelerates, according to the Paris-based organization. Meanwhile, oil-production capacity is set to increase to nearly 113.8 million barrels a day, driven by producers in the U.S. and the Americas.</p><p>“This would result in levels of spare capacity never seen before other than at the height of the Covid-19 lockdowns in 2020,” the IEA said on Wednesday. “Such a massive oil production buffer could usher in a lower oil price environment, posing tough challenges for producers in the U.S. shale patch and the OPEC+ bloc.”</p><p>Despite the slowdown, global oil demand in 2030 is still forecast to rise by 3.2 million barrels a day from 2023, the agency said. The increase will be driven by strong demand from economies in Asia, particularly in India and China. But rising electric-car sales, fuel-efficiency improvements and the use of renewables for electricity generation will increasingly offset gains.</p><p>In advanced economies, demand is forecast to fall from around 45.7 million barrels per day in 2023 to 42.7 million barrels per day in 2030. Excluding the pandemic, the last time that oil demand was that low was in 1991, according to the IEA.</p><p>Meanwhile, global production capacity growth will be led by producers outside of the OPEC+ alliance—particularly the U.S., Brazil, Canada, Argentina and Guyana—which are forecast to account for three quarters of the expected increase to 2030.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">OPEC+ oil-production capacity is forecast to grow by 1.4 million barrels a day from 2023 through 2030, led by Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Iraq. According to the IEA, the group’s total oil market share dropped to 48.5% this year—the lowest since the alliance was formed in 2016—due to its voluntary output curbs.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The IEA cited various risks to its demand forecast, including economic growth estimates, the trajectory of oil prices and the pace of adoption of electric vehicles worldwide.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">In the short term, the agency cut its forecast for global oil-demand growth to 960,000 barrels a day this year from previous estimates of 1.1 million barrels a day, as weak deliveries in OECD countries pushed global demand in a narrow contraction in March.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Oil-demand growth for next year is now forecast at 1 million barrels a day, down from 1.2 million barrels a day previously, on lackluster economic growth, the increasing use of electric vehicles and efficiency gains. Total demand is expected to reach an average of 103.2 million barrels a day in 2024 and 104.2 million barrels a day in 2025.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Wednesday’s reports came as Brent crude trades around $82 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate is around $78 a barrel. Both benchmarks rallied about 3% earlier this week as traders seem to be buying on the back of a dip following an oil selloff sparked by OPEC+’s plan to unwind some of its production cuts.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Prices are supported by expectations that summer fuel demand and output curbs from OPEC+ will lead to a sizable deficit in the third quarter. Bearish sentiment continues to dominate the market, with prospects of higher-for-longer interest rates in the U.S. damping the commodity’s demand outlook.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The agency’s projections remain well below OPEC’s. The cartel forecasts global oil-demand growth of 2.2 million barrels a day this year and 1.8 million barrels a day in 2025.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Total oil supply is now expected to be higher, reaching an average of 102.9 million barrels a day this year and 104.7 million barrels a day the next from previous expectations of 102.7 million barrels a day and 104.5 million barrels a day, respectively, the IEA said. Non-OPEC+ countries are still set to lead global supply, the agency said, with production expected to grow by 1.4 million barrels a day in 2024 and 1.5 million barrels a day in 2025.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">OPEC+ production is forecast to fall 740,000 barrels a day this year if the group keeps its voluntary output cuts in place, and to flip to a growth of 320,000 barrels a day the next. The cartel and its allies agreed to extend voluntary curbs of 2.2 million barrels a day to the end of September and said they aim to gradually unwind them from October 2024 to September 2025, contingent on market conditions.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Meanwhile, Russian crude exports rose by 100,000 barrels a day in May to 7.7 million barrels a day, while export revenue fell 0.6% compared with the previous month to $16.8 billion, the IEA said. Russia’s oil production is expected to decrease by 260,000 barrels a day this year to 10.7 million barrels a day as the country carries out deeper OPEC+ production cuts, but supply is forecast to remain broadly steady through 2030 supported by the Vostok Oil project in the Arctic.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"OXY":"西方石油","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4588":"碎股","BK4129":"建筑与工程","BK4570":"地缘局势概念股"},"source_url":"https://dowjonesnews.com/newdjn/logon.aspx?AL=N","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2442587047","content_text":"Global oil markets are headed toward a major glut this decade, a global energy watchdog forecast, citing surging supplies and slowing demand growth for crude thanks to lower-emissions energy sources.The International Energy Agency, whose members include the world’s biggest oil consumers, predicted in its closely watched medium-term oil market report that so-called spare capacity—the amount of pumping capacity left unused because of adequate supply—could surge in coming years to levels only seen during the Covid-19 pandemic.  Oil-demand growth is set to peak by 2029 and start to contract the next year, reaching 105.4 million barrels a day in 2030 as the rollout of clean-energy technologies accelerates, according to the Paris-based organization. Meanwhile, oil-production capacity is set to increase to nearly 113.8 million barrels a day, driven by producers in the U.S. and the Americas.“This would result in levels of spare capacity never seen before other than at the height of the Covid-19 lockdowns in 2020,” the IEA said on Wednesday. “Such a massive oil production buffer could usher in a lower oil price environment, posing tough challenges for producers in the U.S. shale patch and the OPEC+ bloc.”Despite the slowdown, global oil demand in 2030 is still forecast to rise by 3.2 million barrels a day from 2023, the agency said. The increase will be driven by strong demand from economies in Asia, particularly in India and China. But rising electric-car sales, fuel-efficiency improvements and the use of renewables for electricity generation will increasingly offset gains.In advanced economies, demand is forecast to fall from around 45.7 million barrels per day in 2023 to 42.7 million barrels per day in 2030. Excluding the pandemic, the last time that oil demand was that low was in 1991, according to the IEA.Meanwhile, global production capacity growth will be led by producers outside of the OPEC+ alliance—particularly the U.S., Brazil, Canada, Argentina and Guyana—which are forecast to account for three quarters of the expected increase to 2030.OPEC+ oil-production capacity is forecast to grow by 1.4 million barrels a day from 2023 through 2030, led by Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Iraq. According to the IEA, the group’s total oil market share dropped to 48.5% this year—the lowest since the alliance was formed in 2016—due to its voluntary output curbs.The IEA cited various risks to its demand forecast, including economic growth estimates, the trajectory of oil prices and the pace of adoption of electric vehicles worldwide.In the short term, the agency cut its forecast for global oil-demand growth to 960,000 barrels a day this year from previous estimates of 1.1 million barrels a day, as weak deliveries in OECD countries pushed global demand in a narrow contraction in March.Oil-demand growth for next year is now forecast at 1 million barrels a day, down from 1.2 million barrels a day previously, on lackluster economic growth, the increasing use of electric vehicles and efficiency gains. Total demand is expected to reach an average of 103.2 million barrels a day in 2024 and 104.2 million barrels a day in 2025.Wednesday’s reports came as Brent crude trades around $82 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate is around $78 a barrel. Both benchmarks rallied about 3% earlier this week as traders seem to be buying on the back of a dip following an oil selloff sparked by OPEC+’s plan to unwind some of its production cuts.Prices are supported by expectations that summer fuel demand and output curbs from OPEC+ will lead to a sizable deficit in the third quarter. Bearish sentiment continues to dominate the market, with prospects of higher-for-longer interest rates in the U.S. damping the commodity’s demand outlook.The agency’s projections remain well below OPEC’s. The cartel forecasts global oil-demand growth of 2.2 million barrels a day this year and 1.8 million barrels a day in 2025.Total oil supply is now expected to be higher, reaching an average of 102.9 million barrels a day this year and 104.7 million barrels a day the next from previous expectations of 102.7 million barrels a day and 104.5 million barrels a day, respectively, the IEA said. Non-OPEC+ countries are still set to lead global supply, the agency said, with production expected to grow by 1.4 million barrels a day in 2024 and 1.5 million barrels a day in 2025.OPEC+ production is forecast to fall 740,000 barrels a day this year if the group keeps its voluntary output cuts in place, and to flip to a growth of 320,000 barrels a day the next. The cartel and its allies agreed to extend voluntary curbs of 2.2 million barrels a day to the end of September and said they aim to gradually unwind them from October 2024 to September 2025, contingent on market conditions.Meanwhile, Russian crude exports rose by 100,000 barrels a day in May to 7.7 million barrels a day, while export revenue fell 0.6% compared with the previous month to $16.8 billion, the IEA said. Russia’s oil production is expected to decrease by 260,000 barrels a day this year to 10.7 million barrels a day as the country carries out deeper OPEC+ production cuts, but supply is forecast to remain broadly steady through 2030 supported by the Vostok Oil project in the Arctic.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":321,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":316065991446568,"gmtCreate":1718194257774,"gmtModify":1718198574720,"author":{"id":"4179503792031752","authorId":"4179503792031752","name":"MSA3A","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/838b2d2b99a3e9332e14aa48f904963f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4179503792031752","authorIdStr":"4179503792031752"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Choose Malaysian Drillers for the best &amp; safest oil. With companies like Blackstone Inc.&nbsp;","listText":"Choose Malaysian Drillers for the best &amp; safest oil. With companies like Blackstone Inc.&nbsp;","text":"Choose Malaysian Drillers for the best & safest oil. With companies like Blackstone Inc.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/316065991446568","repostId":"2442587047","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":173,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":316027910066192,"gmtCreate":1718184992064,"gmtModify":1718186161046,"author":{"id":"4179503792031752","authorId":"4179503792031752","name":"MSA3A","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/838b2d2b99a3e9332e14aa48f904963f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4179503792031752","authorIdStr":"4179503792031752"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"This is essentially what the Crown Prince of Johor and I have been rambling about from Malaysia.&nbsp; The newly coronated King Ibrahim and his wife also have expressed concern &amp; interest over the catastrophic need for such endeavours.&nbsp; Please sign it.&nbsp;","listText":"This is essentially what the Crown Prince of Johor and I have been rambling about from Malaysia.&nbsp; The newly coronated King Ibrahim and his wife also have expressed concern &amp; interest over the catastrophic need for such endeavours.&nbsp; Please sign it.&nbsp;","text":"This is essentially what the Crown Prince of Johor and I have been rambling about from Malaysia. The newly coronated King Ibrahim and his wife also have expressed concern & interest over the catastrophic need for such endeavours. Please sign it.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/316027910066192","repostId":"1125564499","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1125564499","pubTimestamp":1718182823,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1125564499?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-06-12 17:00","market":"sg","language":"en","title":"Singapore, Malaysia Near Final Pact for Special Economic Zone","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1125564499","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"Malaysia PM says keen to meet potential investors in SingaporeSingapore PM says open to proposals for KL-Singapore railSingapore and Malaysia are close to finalizing plans to develop a special economi","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Malaysia PM says keen to meet potential investors in Singapore</p></li><li><p>Singapore PM says open to proposals for KL-Singapore rail</p></li></ul><p>Singapore and Malaysia are close to finalizing plans to develop a special economic zone that seeks to boost trade and connectivity.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The two neighbors are “very close” to a final agreement on the SEZ in Malaysia’s southern Johor state, the country’s Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim said, citing initial briefings.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">“I would even drop into Singapore to meet the potential investors to encourage them but we have to get the parameters and issues resolved,” Anwar said in Kuala Lumpur on Wednesday at a joint press briefing with Singapore’s Prime Minister Lawrence Wong.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Earlier this year, the two countries agreed to jointly develop the SEZ but have yet to announce a specific location. Johor last month suggested creating a Shenzhen-style hub comprising Iskandar Malaysia, home to struggling property development Forest City, and petrochemical hub Pengerang.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The countries are also working to complete the Rapid Transit System between the Malaysian state’s Johor Bahru city and the northern part of Singapore by 2026. The rail link will have a peak capacity of up to 10,000 passengers per hour per direction.</p><p>“If we can press forward with good master planning, clear and consistent policies around the SEZ, with the RTS coming alongside, I think it will unlock a lot of economic benefit for both sides,” Wong said at the press conference.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Wong added that he’s willing to hear fresh proposals on a high-speed rail line between Kuala Lumpur and Singapore. The on-again, off-again rail link project was terminated in 2021.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The leaders also discussed long-standing issues related to water supply as well as airspace and maritime boundaries in their first meeting since Wong took office in May. Anwar said he hopes to resolve bilateral issues before the annual Singapore-Malaysia leaders’ retreat at the end of the year.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Singapore, Malaysia Near Final Pact for Special Economic Zone</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSingapore, Malaysia Near Final Pact for Special Economic Zone\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-06-12 17:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-12/singapore-malaysia-near-final-pact-for-special-economic-zone?srnd=homepage-asia><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Malaysia PM says keen to meet potential investors in SingaporeSingapore PM says open to proposals for KL-Singapore railSingapore and Malaysia are close to finalizing plans to develop a special ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-12/singapore-malaysia-near-final-pact-for-special-economic-zone?srnd=homepage-asia\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"STI.SI":"富时新加坡海峡指数"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-12/singapore-malaysia-near-final-pact-for-special-economic-zone?srnd=homepage-asia","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1125564499","content_text":"Malaysia PM says keen to meet potential investors in SingaporeSingapore PM says open to proposals for KL-Singapore railSingapore and Malaysia are close to finalizing plans to develop a special economic zone that seeks to boost trade and connectivity.The two neighbors are “very close” to a final agreement on the SEZ in Malaysia’s southern Johor state, the country’s Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim said, citing initial briefings.“I would even drop into Singapore to meet the potential investors to encourage them but we have to get the parameters and issues resolved,” Anwar said in Kuala Lumpur on Wednesday at a joint press briefing with Singapore’s Prime Minister Lawrence Wong.Earlier this year, the two countries agreed to jointly develop the SEZ but have yet to announce a specific location. Johor last month suggested creating a Shenzhen-style hub comprising Iskandar Malaysia, home to struggling property development Forest City, and petrochemical hub Pengerang.The countries are also working to complete the Rapid Transit System between the Malaysian state’s Johor Bahru city and the northern part of Singapore by 2026. The rail link will have a peak capacity of up to 10,000 passengers per hour per direction.“If we can press forward with good master planning, clear and consistent policies around the SEZ, with the RTS coming alongside, I think it will unlock a lot of economic benefit for both sides,” Wong said at the press conference.Wong added that he’s willing to hear fresh proposals on a high-speed rail line between Kuala Lumpur and Singapore. The on-again, off-again rail link project was terminated in 2021.The leaders also discussed long-standing issues related to water supply as well as airspace and maritime boundaries in their first meeting since Wong took office in May. Anwar said he hopes to resolve bilateral issues before the annual Singapore-Malaysia leaders’ retreat at the end of the year.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":135,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":313802540003464,"gmtCreate":1717650486198,"gmtModify":1717652793104,"author":{"id":"4179503792031752","authorId":"4179503792031752","name":"MSA3A","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/838b2d2b99a3e9332e14aa48f904963f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4179503792031752","authorIdStr":"4179503792031752"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Further in need of Ai Securities @ Comissioning. Great man once said an Open Ai is an eye opened.&nbsp;","listText":"Further in need of Ai Securities @ Comissioning. Great man once said an Open Ai is an eye opened.&nbsp;","text":"Further in need of Ai Securities @ Comissioning. Great man once said an Open Ai is an eye opened.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/313802540003464","repostId":"2441756943","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":164,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":311150983819384,"gmtCreate":1716970121847,"gmtModify":1716973274064,"author":{"id":"4179503792031752","authorId":"4179503792031752","name":"MSA3A","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/838b2d2b99a3e9332e14aa48f904963f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4179503792031752","authorIdStr":"4179503792031752"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Kutzbah","listText":"Kutzbah","text":"Kutzbah","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/311150983819384","repostId":"2439803538","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2439803538","pubTimestamp":1716960562,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2439803538?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-05-29 13:29","market":"fut","language":"en","title":"Tesla's iPhone Moment","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2439803538","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Both the Electric Vehicle industry and Tesla, Inc. have lost sales momentum.Tesla is situated well within the auto industry, but the company must successfully restructure.Tesla will pivot to high-volu","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Both the Electric Vehicle industry and Tesla, Inc. have lost sales momentum.</p></li><li><p>Tesla is situated well within the auto industry, but the company must successfully restructure.</p></li><li><p>Tesla will pivot to high-volume, affordable cars and push its “Full Self Driving” subscription service.</p></li><li><p>A great method of comparing peer valuations is using Enterprise Value.</p></li><li><p>I created a DCF model as a “check” on Tesla stock valuation.</p></li></ul><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/15402ca3ce706835733f8b286527cedb\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\"/></p><p>jetcityimage</p><p></p><h2 id=\"id_1876793236\">Thesis</h2><p>Magnificent 7 shares have run up sharply despite high interest rates. Concurrently, <strong>Tesla, Inc.</strong> (NASDAQ:TSLA) stock is suffering from a cacophony of bad publicity, an overvalued share price, and weakening industry fundamentals. I will explain how Tesla remains well positioned within the automobile industry despite its shortcomings.</p><p>Two disastrous back-to-back quarters have motivated CEO Elon Musk to restructure Tesla. I believe Musk will pivot from producing premium cars towards high-volume economical vehicles that utilize its FSD (“full self-driving”) subscription plan. I’ll show how Tesla could benefit from this new strategy using a financial model and discounted cash flow. Furthermore, I will also demonstrate ways of determining Tesla’s proper valuation, despite controversies over what kind of company it truly is.</p><h2 id=\"id_28010681\">Introduction</h2><p><strong>Tesla</strong> is often described as an automaker, and increasingly, as a clean-energy company that’s had its fair share of near-death experiences. Understanding Tesla is similar to understanding cryptocurrencies with its “second-order thinking.” Once you get past the Ponzi-scheme allegations and mercurial leader, you’ll see a broader vision of things to come. This article focuses on Tesla, the EV (Electric Vehicle) manufacturer, and its evolution to an FSD subscription model.</p><h2 id=\"id_2544396275\">Tesla’s Position and Industry Structure</h2><p>I rate Tesla “<strong>Above Average</strong>” using the Five-Forces Industry Analysis (after Harvard’s Michael Porter) and Innovation analysis (by Clayton Christensen). Tesla benefits from its strong business position, low-cost production, vertical integration, somewhat-low threats from existing ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) legacy makers (GM, Ford, Chrysler/Fiat), protection from competitive Chinese automakers, and weak credit profiles from other EV manufacturers (Faraday, Fisker, Lucid, Polestar, Rivian). Tesla’s greatest threat is Waymo, which may not be cost-competitive with Tesla, given Waymo’s use of complex autonomous subsystems. Legacy players announced plans to reduce their aggressive strategy to scale-up EV models due to inconsistent demand and production bottlenecks, and they must deal with high-cost unionized labor. Hence, Tesla remains in a strong “pole-position.”</p><h2 id=\"id_456238874\">EV Industry Weakness</h2><p>Since we’ve already hit a “tipping point” of EV unit sales, I expected a “J-Curve” of rapid adoption. Instead, several factors halted this transition. I believe the primary reason for the slowing EV sales was the “pull-forward” from the Biden Administration’s EV tax incentives. Bleeding-edge folks already adopted EVs and the mainstream consumer worries over “range anxiety.” EV’s share of total car sales has halted at 8% and EV prices need to decline below ICE prices ($46,997) to boost sales. Ark Invest expects 90% of EV market share once average selling prices fall to $20,000. EV versus internal combustion engine (&#34;ICE&#34;) prices are below.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/400e96eb8ed27692e0e13de3573060ff\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"274\"/></p><p>Cox Automotive</p><p></p><h2 id=\"id_2653607460\">Tesla’s Disaster</h2><p>Dan Ives, one of the most outspoken analysts, called Tesla’s Q4 ’23 and 1Q ’24 earnings reports an “unmitigated disaster.” A laundry-list of well-telegraphed issues are bulleted below:</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Decelerating unit sales</p></li><li><p>Weaker average selling prices due to pricing &amp; mix</p></li><li><p>Lack of new car models and dependence on the Model Y</p></li><li><p>An arson attack in Gigafactory, Berlin</p></li><li><p>Production issues related to Model 3 and Cybertruck ramp-ups</p></li><li><p>Hesitant purchasers due to Elon Musk’s rants.</p></li></ul><h2 id=\"id_1991622630\">How Are Investors Valuing Tesla?</h2><p>I agree with analysts that times are tough for Tesla, but I’m a long-term investor, so should I really care? My preferred valuation method is utilizing <strong>Enterprise Value/Forward Revenues</strong>, which can be used on any company, in any industry, regardless of earnings, and it adjusts for balance sheet cash.</p><p>I think we can all agree that Tesla is <strong>more</strong> than a car company and its valuation should reflect a blend between an Automaker and Tech company growing at 8-10% (or 18% for its LT growth). This would place Tesla’s EV/Revenues between 1.3x (Premium automaker) and 7.5x (SaaS Software) with a midpoint around 3x (similar to the S&amp;P 500’s). Today’s EV/Revenue valuation of 5.6x remains expensive. This suggests Tesla’ price could decline 50% to approximately $90, though technically, there’s strong support in the $100 area. This 50% share-price cut assumes that investors think that half of the company is Tech (which may not be true). Also note that Tesla’s shares last bottomed at 2x EV/Revenues during 11/19.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/70396a3b970c723e2600c7d1cd5bd6c3\" tg-width=\"562\" tg-height=\"324\"/></p><p>Author&#39;s Creation</p><p></p><h2 id=\"id_2811957917\">Tesla’s Restructuring</h2><p>It appears that Tesla’s in a “bad place” again. Could Tesla shift its strategy to reset itself ? As many are aware, Tesla has been aggressively restructuring. I believe Tesla could exit the other side by becoming more like an Apple iPhone (using a Razor Razor-blade strategy). Customers often say that the cars remind them of iPhones due to their glasslike paint, software updates, user-friendly interface, “iPad screen,” and minimalist design. The next step could be changing its business strategy to a subscription model.</p><p>I created a Financial Model to incorporate this new strategy into 2038. I project that Tesla will substantially reduce its profit margins and free cash flow in its automobile business but boost cash flow from its subscription-based FSD business. I also expect Tesla to offer its own and third-party applications in its Tesla Mobile App; however, these are <strong>not</strong> included in my projections. Historically, the hugely profitable Apple App-store and Razor blade strategies have had strong moats, except for antitrust losses. Tesla wouldn’t be subject to these lawsuits, given the proprietary nature of FSD. My Tesla Financial Model includes “Tesla Core” and “New Tesla” which incorporates nearly one dozen models for each new business unit (e.g., Robotaxi, Optimus...). The segment data below is <strong>only</strong> for Tesla Core.</p><h2 id=\"id_1596740891\">Auto Unit</h2><p>I project that unit sales of all cars (Model S, 3, X, Y…) grow slightly in 2024 to 1.85MM cars. This growth is down sharply from 2023’s 38%. While Tesla’s Auto free cash flows (FCF) have been high over the last few years (~ $17Bn) I project 2024 will have a loss of nearly $2.8Bn. Tesla’s unique and vertically integrated operations have boosted historical FCF margins (i.e., FCF/Revenues) to well over 9%. One would expect that a much larger scaled operation and new production processes to continue boosting FCF margins. <strong>However, I believe Tesla will artificially suppress margins to no higher than 4% during the forecast period with the goal of increasing unit sales and market share.</strong></p><p>Consequently, I expect unit sales to rebound in 2025 and grow at a CAGR of 29% from 2025 through 2029. Helping boost sales will be Tesla’s compact car (code-named “Redwood”) that will lower ASP (Average Selling Prices). Concurrently, global EV sales (including hybrids) are forecast to rise from 14.1MM units in 2023 to 37MM units by 2030 (Source: International Energy Agency). I expect Tesla’s EV market share to rise from 13% in 2023 to 18% by 2028 and 21% by 2030.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/32bf782597a1b231cd5549a5efa6dbd8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"213\"/></p><p>Author&#39;s creation, IHS Industry projections</p><p></p><h2 id=\"id_1874926894\">“Full Self-Driving”</h2><p>Tesla sells Level 2 ADAS (Advanced Driver Assistance Systems) to its customers using what it calls &#34;Full Self Driving Capability.&#34; Having seen Tesla’s FSD in action, it’s clear that it’s at least at Level 3; however, one could assume it is fully autonomous (Level 6) given its nomenclature (hence the lawsuits).</p><p>Last year, Tesla rolled out FSD version 12. New Tesla investors may not realize it, but FSD 12 isn’t just the 12th iteration of FSD, but the first version of a whole new way of autonomous driving. Instead of having every single driving situation hard-coded, V12 uses an AI trained Neural Network. Despite coming from a high-base, Miles-Driven with FSD rose from 56% growth in 4Q ’23 to 73%, to 1.3Bn miles, as of 1Q ’24.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/465ea0442d045206fac714c02a38d301\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"342\"/></p><p>Tesla</p><p></p><p>While I expect Tesla’s auto sales to have low FCF margins, its FSD segment will likely maintain high margins due to mostly “sunk-costs.” At first glance, this goes against the grain of Tesla’s recent 50% price cut to $100/month for FSD (or $8,000 one-time payment) but I think we can all agree that the “attach rate” would be hindered at high prices. I project a 50% “attach rate” of Tesla’s fleet using FSD, rising to 70% by 2028. Tesla’s FSD revenue growth is supported by forecasts from McKinsey (see below).</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/775eab9bed72f0d080becca814bc7c77\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"359\"/></p><p>McKinsey</p><p></p><p>I also expect Tesla to license its FSD to legacy carmakers beginning in 2028 at $200/month. If Tesla follows through with its Robotaxi by 2028 (Musk has said it could launch as soon as this year under human-supervision) that could add substantial licensing dollars <strong>not </strong>included in this model.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1ee33c27f7b15e87fc5ce7e7d274fc9d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"207\"/></p><p>Author&#39;s creation</p><p></p><h2 id=\"id_642404909\">Tesla Truck Unit:</h2><p>My Tesla “Truck” projections, meaning Class 8 Semis, are conservative as Ryder Systems recently published a study showing that EV trucks are not economical and too expensive to maintain. By 2028, I project 81k unit sales at $207k/unit, with ASP declining 3% per year. For perspective, Paccar forecasts 788k global unit sales by 2028 (see Industry Class 8 sales below). On 5/24, Tesla announced it will finally start producing trucks in 2025 (over eight years late if we exclude the pilot production for PepsiCo).</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/cd716b1f75ce8c03474f3cb4c3cab871\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"178\"/></p><p>Author&#39;s creation, Paccar industry forecast</p><p></p><h2 id=\"id_891172600\">Insurance &amp; Charging</h2><p>Tesla’s Insurance business is small and conducted more as a “service” to customers that cannot find affordable coverage. I forecast Tesla charges $3,300/car based on blended auto insurance rates for those states Tesla sells into, according to data supplied by Insurance.com.</p><p>I forecast Tesla’s EV charging business will grow sharply but operate at a FCF loss for several years (as per a McKinsey White paper and Wedbush’s Dan Ives) which now explains recent mass layoffs in this unit. Revenue/Port is expected to rise now that Tesla’s charging model has become the standard for most automakers.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5d6a463346925077cf94f219c5419e52\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"192\"/></p><p>Author&#39;s creation</p><p></p><h2 id=\"id_97855532\">Energy Generation &amp; Storage</h2><p>I believe that Tesla’s Energy Storage segment offers the most promise. The company aggregates residential and commercial storage together, which doesn’t do justice to the FCF powerhouse in selling commercial Megapacks. It’s basically a giant battery used in power stations to help manage the flow of electricity on the grid. A Megapack (~ $1.5MM each excl. installation costs) holds a huge 3.9 MWh which can power 3,600 homes for one hour. I forecast the Energy Storage unit will grow much faster than Generation (which sells cheap residential solar panels and pricier solar-roofs). In contrast, the Megapack business has a two-year backlog and just received approval for a Chinese factory that will start producing 10,000 units by 2025. For perspective, the Chinese fab will be able to annually produce over <strong>twice</strong> the revenues of the combined Energy Generation and Storage Unit’s 2023’s revenues.</p><p>Given the strong backlog, I forecast rapid revenue and FCF growth during the forecast period. This aligns with industry projections for “Energy Battery US Storage Revenue” provided by Grand-View Research below and anecdotal commentaries.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/cd9b26e85008cc8c5148afb5678680d3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"294\"/></p><p>Author&#39;s creation, Grand-view Research projections</p><p></p><h2 id=\"id_3320584169\">DCF Model</h2><p>The DCF Model projects each unit going out to 2038 – thereafter, I project a conservative 3% growth rate in FCF. I calculated a conservative (i.e., high) WACC of 10.4% using a Beta of 1.65 and a 5% cost of debt, blended at 65% Equity and 35% Debt proportions. I use a high Shares Outstanding of 4.5Bn (vs. today’s 3.5Bn) to account for Elon’s hefty share compensation; however, I don’t foresee future capital raises.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/76c9b3898c81c5c1fb70b475bc39abf8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"190\"/></p><p>Author&#39;s creation</p><p></p><p>The Model’s calculated value is 20% above the present-day’s stock price. More aggressive assumptions yield calculated values 50% higher than today’s stock price. Still, given the sensitivity to assumptions and execution risk, I don’t think this is enough margin to support the shares. Hence, I still think Tesla’s shares could decline another 40-45% until investors feel comfortable with the risk and until its revenues are mostly Tech-based (see pie chart). <strong>Remember…investors are focused solely on the EV business</strong>.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4f38ee6c55107fcac4154b9096725bf3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"385\"/></p><p>Author&#39;s creation</p><p></p><h2 id=\"id_446247861\">Explaining My Buy Rating</h2><p>Despite my above near-term bearishness, I rate Tesla a “Buy” as Seeking Alpha doesn’t have a short-term rating. Further, my “New Tesla” DCF model reflects another half-dozen new businesses that, I believe, will evolve Tesla into an AI and robotics powerhouse.</p><h2 id=\"id_4138428498\">Conclusion:</h2><p>I’ve never seen such a large company with a “Do or Die” plan. Tesla has the chance to become the most consequential company in history. Readers interested in knowing more about Tesla’s moonshots are encouraged to read its Master Plan. Shh, it’s a “secret.”</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla's iPhone Moment</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla's iPhone Moment\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-05-29 13:29 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4696041-tesla-iphone-moment><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Both the Electric Vehicle industry and Tesla, Inc. have lost sales momentum.Tesla is situated well within the auto industry, but the company must successfully restructure.Tesla will pivot to high-...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4696041-tesla-iphone-moment\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU1720051017.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence AT Acc H2-SGD","AAPL":"苹果","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4515":"5G概念","LU0289961442.SGD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"AX\" (SGD) ACC","LU1861558580.USD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B","BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓","LU0127658192.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0149725797.USD":"汇丰美国股市经济规模基金","LU0689472784.USD":"安联收益及增长基金Cl AM AT Acc","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","LU1551013425.SGD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS H2-SGD","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","IE00BJTD4N35.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Long Short Equity A1  Acc SGD-H","LU2756315318.SGD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMG\" (SGDHDG) INC A","BK4555":"新能源车","LU0256863811.USD":"ALLIANZ US EQUITY \"A\" INC","BK4566":"资本集团","IE00B775SV38.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN US MULTICAP OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","TSLA":"特斯拉","LU0943347566.SGD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金AM H2-SGD","LU2357305700.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence ET H2-SGD","IE00B3S45H60.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Multicap Opportunities A Acc SGD-H","LU1839511570.USD":"WELLS FARGO GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"I\" (USD) ACC","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","IE0004445239.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON US FORTY \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU1861559042.SGD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B SGD","LU1435385759.SGD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity RA SGD-H","IE00BJJMRX11.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD","IE00BJTD4V19.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN US LONG SHORT EQUITY \"A1\" (USD) ACC","LU1551013342.USD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS USD","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0353189680.USD":"富国美国全盘成长基金Cl A Acc","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","IE00BKDWB100.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5H\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU1914381329.SGD":"Allianz Best Styles Global Equity Cl ET Acc H2-SGD","LU2249611893.SGD":"BNP PARIBAS ENERGY TRANSITION \"CRH\" (SGD) ACC","LU0820561909.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AM\" (HKD) INC","BK4512":"苹果概念","BK4099":"汽车制造商","BK4511":"特斯拉概念","LU2756315664.SGD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMI\" (SGDHDG) INC","LU0011850046.USD":"贝莱德全球长线股票 A2 USD","IE0004445015.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","LU2087621335.USD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4696041-tesla-iphone-moment","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2439803538","content_text":"Both the Electric Vehicle industry and Tesla, Inc. have lost sales momentum.Tesla is situated well within the auto industry, but the company must successfully restructure.Tesla will pivot to high-volume, affordable cars and push its “Full Self Driving” subscription service.A great method of comparing peer valuations is using Enterprise Value.I created a DCF model as a “check” on Tesla stock valuation.jetcityimageThesisMagnificent 7 shares have run up sharply despite high interest rates. Concurrently, Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) stock is suffering from a cacophony of bad publicity, an overvalued share price, and weakening industry fundamentals. I will explain how Tesla remains well positioned within the automobile industry despite its shortcomings.Two disastrous back-to-back quarters have motivated CEO Elon Musk to restructure Tesla. I believe Musk will pivot from producing premium cars towards high-volume economical vehicles that utilize its FSD (“full self-driving”) subscription plan. I’ll show how Tesla could benefit from this new strategy using a financial model and discounted cash flow. Furthermore, I will also demonstrate ways of determining Tesla’s proper valuation, despite controversies over what kind of company it truly is.IntroductionTesla is often described as an automaker, and increasingly, as a clean-energy company that’s had its fair share of near-death experiences. Understanding Tesla is similar to understanding cryptocurrencies with its “second-order thinking.” Once you get past the Ponzi-scheme allegations and mercurial leader, you’ll see a broader vision of things to come. This article focuses on Tesla, the EV (Electric Vehicle) manufacturer, and its evolution to an FSD subscription model.Tesla’s Position and Industry StructureI rate Tesla “Above Average” using the Five-Forces Industry Analysis (after Harvard’s Michael Porter) and Innovation analysis (by Clayton Christensen). Tesla benefits from its strong business position, low-cost production, vertical integration, somewhat-low threats from existing ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) legacy makers (GM, Ford, Chrysler/Fiat), protection from competitive Chinese automakers, and weak credit profiles from other EV manufacturers (Faraday, Fisker, Lucid, Polestar, Rivian). Tesla’s greatest threat is Waymo, which may not be cost-competitive with Tesla, given Waymo’s use of complex autonomous subsystems. Legacy players announced plans to reduce their aggressive strategy to scale-up EV models due to inconsistent demand and production bottlenecks, and they must deal with high-cost unionized labor. Hence, Tesla remains in a strong “pole-position.”EV Industry WeaknessSince we’ve already hit a “tipping point” of EV unit sales, I expected a “J-Curve” of rapid adoption. Instead, several factors halted this transition. I believe the primary reason for the slowing EV sales was the “pull-forward” from the Biden Administration’s EV tax incentives. Bleeding-edge folks already adopted EVs and the mainstream consumer worries over “range anxiety.” EV’s share of total car sales has halted at 8% and EV prices need to decline below ICE prices ($46,997) to boost sales. Ark Invest expects 90% of EV market share once average selling prices fall to $20,000. EV versus internal combustion engine (\"ICE\") prices are below.Cox AutomotiveTesla’s DisasterDan Ives, one of the most outspoken analysts, called Tesla’s Q4 ’23 and 1Q ’24 earnings reports an “unmitigated disaster.” A laundry-list of well-telegraphed issues are bulleted below:Decelerating unit salesWeaker average selling prices due to pricing & mixLack of new car models and dependence on the Model YAn arson attack in Gigafactory, BerlinProduction issues related to Model 3 and Cybertruck ramp-upsHesitant purchasers due to Elon Musk’s rants.How Are Investors Valuing Tesla?I agree with analysts that times are tough for Tesla, but I’m a long-term investor, so should I really care? My preferred valuation method is utilizing Enterprise Value/Forward Revenues, which can be used on any company, in any industry, regardless of earnings, and it adjusts for balance sheet cash.I think we can all agree that Tesla is more than a car company and its valuation should reflect a blend between an Automaker and Tech company growing at 8-10% (or 18% for its LT growth). This would place Tesla’s EV/Revenues between 1.3x (Premium automaker) and 7.5x (SaaS Software) with a midpoint around 3x (similar to the S&P 500’s). Today’s EV/Revenue valuation of 5.6x remains expensive. This suggests Tesla’ price could decline 50% to approximately $90, though technically, there’s strong support in the $100 area. This 50% share-price cut assumes that investors think that half of the company is Tech (which may not be true). Also note that Tesla’s shares last bottomed at 2x EV/Revenues during 11/19.Author's CreationTesla’s RestructuringIt appears that Tesla’s in a “bad place” again. Could Tesla shift its strategy to reset itself ? As many are aware, Tesla has been aggressively restructuring. I believe Tesla could exit the other side by becoming more like an Apple iPhone (using a Razor Razor-blade strategy). Customers often say that the cars remind them of iPhones due to their glasslike paint, software updates, user-friendly interface, “iPad screen,” and minimalist design. The next step could be changing its business strategy to a subscription model.I created a Financial Model to incorporate this new strategy into 2038. I project that Tesla will substantially reduce its profit margins and free cash flow in its automobile business but boost cash flow from its subscription-based FSD business. I also expect Tesla to offer its own and third-party applications in its Tesla Mobile App; however, these are not included in my projections. Historically, the hugely profitable Apple App-store and Razor blade strategies have had strong moats, except for antitrust losses. Tesla wouldn’t be subject to these lawsuits, given the proprietary nature of FSD. My Tesla Financial Model includes “Tesla Core” and “New Tesla” which incorporates nearly one dozen models for each new business unit (e.g., Robotaxi, Optimus...). The segment data below is only for Tesla Core.Auto UnitI project that unit sales of all cars (Model S, 3, X, Y…) grow slightly in 2024 to 1.85MM cars. This growth is down sharply from 2023’s 38%. While Tesla’s Auto free cash flows (FCF) have been high over the last few years (~ $17Bn) I project 2024 will have a loss of nearly $2.8Bn. Tesla’s unique and vertically integrated operations have boosted historical FCF margins (i.e., FCF/Revenues) to well over 9%. One would expect that a much larger scaled operation and new production processes to continue boosting FCF margins. However, I believe Tesla will artificially suppress margins to no higher than 4% during the forecast period with the goal of increasing unit sales and market share.Consequently, I expect unit sales to rebound in 2025 and grow at a CAGR of 29% from 2025 through 2029. Helping boost sales will be Tesla’s compact car (code-named “Redwood”) that will lower ASP (Average Selling Prices). Concurrently, global EV sales (including hybrids) are forecast to rise from 14.1MM units in 2023 to 37MM units by 2030 (Source: International Energy Agency). I expect Tesla’s EV market share to rise from 13% in 2023 to 18% by 2028 and 21% by 2030.Author's creation, IHS Industry projections“Full Self-Driving”Tesla sells Level 2 ADAS (Advanced Driver Assistance Systems) to its customers using what it calls \"Full Self Driving Capability.\" Having seen Tesla’s FSD in action, it’s clear that it’s at least at Level 3; however, one could assume it is fully autonomous (Level 6) given its nomenclature (hence the lawsuits).Last year, Tesla rolled out FSD version 12. New Tesla investors may not realize it, but FSD 12 isn’t just the 12th iteration of FSD, but the first version of a whole new way of autonomous driving. Instead of having every single driving situation hard-coded, V12 uses an AI trained Neural Network. Despite coming from a high-base, Miles-Driven with FSD rose from 56% growth in 4Q ’23 to 73%, to 1.3Bn miles, as of 1Q ’24.TeslaWhile I expect Tesla’s auto sales to have low FCF margins, its FSD segment will likely maintain high margins due to mostly “sunk-costs.” At first glance, this goes against the grain of Tesla’s recent 50% price cut to $100/month for FSD (or $8,000 one-time payment) but I think we can all agree that the “attach rate” would be hindered at high prices. I project a 50% “attach rate” of Tesla’s fleet using FSD, rising to 70% by 2028. Tesla’s FSD revenue growth is supported by forecasts from McKinsey (see below).McKinseyI also expect Tesla to license its FSD to legacy carmakers beginning in 2028 at $200/month. If Tesla follows through with its Robotaxi by 2028 (Musk has said it could launch as soon as this year under human-supervision) that could add substantial licensing dollars not included in this model.Author's creationTesla Truck Unit:My Tesla “Truck” projections, meaning Class 8 Semis, are conservative as Ryder Systems recently published a study showing that EV trucks are not economical and too expensive to maintain. By 2028, I project 81k unit sales at $207k/unit, with ASP declining 3% per year. For perspective, Paccar forecasts 788k global unit sales by 2028 (see Industry Class 8 sales below). On 5/24, Tesla announced it will finally start producing trucks in 2025 (over eight years late if we exclude the pilot production for PepsiCo).Author's creation, Paccar industry forecastInsurance & ChargingTesla’s Insurance business is small and conducted more as a “service” to customers that cannot find affordable coverage. I forecast Tesla charges $3,300/car based on blended auto insurance rates for those states Tesla sells into, according to data supplied by Insurance.com.I forecast Tesla’s EV charging business will grow sharply but operate at a FCF loss for several years (as per a McKinsey White paper and Wedbush’s Dan Ives) which now explains recent mass layoffs in this unit. Revenue/Port is expected to rise now that Tesla’s charging model has become the standard for most automakers.Author's creationEnergy Generation & StorageI believe that Tesla’s Energy Storage segment offers the most promise. The company aggregates residential and commercial storage together, which doesn’t do justice to the FCF powerhouse in selling commercial Megapacks. It’s basically a giant battery used in power stations to help manage the flow of electricity on the grid. A Megapack (~ $1.5MM each excl. installation costs) holds a huge 3.9 MWh which can power 3,600 homes for one hour. I forecast the Energy Storage unit will grow much faster than Generation (which sells cheap residential solar panels and pricier solar-roofs). In contrast, the Megapack business has a two-year backlog and just received approval for a Chinese factory that will start producing 10,000 units by 2025. For perspective, the Chinese fab will be able to annually produce over twice the revenues of the combined Energy Generation and Storage Unit’s 2023’s revenues.Given the strong backlog, I forecast rapid revenue and FCF growth during the forecast period. This aligns with industry projections for “Energy Battery US Storage Revenue” provided by Grand-View Research below and anecdotal commentaries.Author's creation, Grand-view Research projectionsDCF ModelThe DCF Model projects each unit going out to 2038 – thereafter, I project a conservative 3% growth rate in FCF. I calculated a conservative (i.e., high) WACC of 10.4% using a Beta of 1.65 and a 5% cost of debt, blended at 65% Equity and 35% Debt proportions. I use a high Shares Outstanding of 4.5Bn (vs. today’s 3.5Bn) to account for Elon’s hefty share compensation; however, I don’t foresee future capital raises.Author's creationThe Model’s calculated value is 20% above the present-day’s stock price. More aggressive assumptions yield calculated values 50% higher than today’s stock price. Still, given the sensitivity to assumptions and execution risk, I don’t think this is enough margin to support the shares. Hence, I still think Tesla’s shares could decline another 40-45% until investors feel comfortable with the risk and until its revenues are mostly Tech-based (see pie chart). Remember…investors are focused solely on the EV business.Author's creationExplaining My Buy RatingDespite my above near-term bearishness, I rate Tesla a “Buy” as Seeking Alpha doesn’t have a short-term rating. Further, my “New Tesla” DCF model reflects another half-dozen new businesses that, I believe, will evolve Tesla into an AI and robotics powerhouse.Conclusion:I’ve never seen such a large company with a “Do or Die” plan. Tesla has the chance to become the most consequential company in history. Readers interested in knowing more about Tesla’s moonshots are encouraged to read its Master Plan. Shh, it’s a “secret.”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":194,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}