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Roy ong and Motorless are gay boy

11-01

$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$

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11-01

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10-31

$SUPER MICRO COMPUTER INC(SMCI)$

Super Micro Shares Tank over 33% as Ernst & Young Resigns as Its Accountant

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10-31

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Stock Track | Super Micro Computer Stock Plunges Over Auditor Resignation Amid Governance Concerns

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10-27

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Stock Track | Canadian Solar Shares Soar 13% on Optimism for 2025 Outlook

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10-27

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10-27

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10-27

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10-26

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10-26

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10-26

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10-26

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10-26

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10-26

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10-24

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QuantumScape Q3 2024 GAAP EPS $(0.23), Inline

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10-24

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10-22

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10-22

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Tim Cook on Why Apple's Huge Bets Will Pay Off

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10-22

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10-22

Roy NG LENG HWEE

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&#34;accounting manipulation&#34; at the AI server maker.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9b5e45ec9c24dd7c070ef0ad74421591\" tg-width=\"786\" tg-height=\"633\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Ernst &amp; Young in its resignation letter said it was “unwilling to be associated with the financial statements prepared by management.” The accountancy also raised concerns about the board’s independence from CEO Charles Laing and “other members of management.”</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">EY had been hired to audit Super Micro for the first time for the 2024 fiscal year, the company said. Super Micro has still not issued its financial statements for this year, and is reportedly under federal investigation.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The auditor first flagged issues with Super Micro’s internal financial controls, governance and forthcomingness in late July, prompting the server firm to appoint a special board committee to investigate the company’s internal controls.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">“We are resigning due to information that has recently come to our attention which has led us to no longer be able to rely on management’s and the Audit Committee’s representations,” EY said in its resignation letter. EY’s concerns were raised prior to a short-seller report that took aim at Super Micro’s financial controls and accounting practices.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Super Micro has run into trouble with regulators over its accounting practices before. It paid a $17.5 million penalty to the Securities and Exchange Commission in 2020 after the regulator alleged it prematurely and improperly recorded revenue.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The company hired law firm Cooley and a forensic accounting firm to review Super Micro’s internal controls. That review remains ongoing, the company said in a regulatory filing.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Super Micro Shares Tank over 33% as Ernst & Young Resigns as Its Accountant</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSuper Micro Shares Tank over 33% as Ernst & Young Resigns as Its Accountant\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1006801671\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4567337cbdf294b657b1fa87c5488b48);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-10-30 21:38</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMCI\">Super Micro Computer </a> shares slumped 33.75% in morning trading on Wednesday after it said Ernst &amp; Young had resigned as its public accounting firm, over a month after Hindenburg Research alleged &#34;accounting manipulation&#34; at the AI server maker.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9b5e45ec9c24dd7c070ef0ad74421591\" tg-width=\"786\" tg-height=\"633\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Ernst &amp; Young in its resignation letter said it was “unwilling to be associated with the financial statements prepared by management.” The accountancy also raised concerns about the board’s independence from CEO Charles Laing and “other members of management.”</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">EY had been hired to audit Super Micro for the first time for the 2024 fiscal year, the company said. Super Micro has still not issued its financial statements for this year, and is reportedly under federal investigation.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The auditor first flagged issues with Super Micro’s internal financial controls, governance and forthcomingness in late July, prompting the server firm to appoint a special board committee to investigate the company’s internal controls.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">“We are resigning due to information that has recently come to our attention which has led us to no longer be able to rely on management’s and the Audit Committee’s representations,” EY said in its resignation letter. EY’s concerns were raised prior to a short-seller report that took aim at Super Micro’s financial controls and accounting practices.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Super Micro has run into trouble with regulators over its accounting practices before. It paid a $17.5 million penalty to the Securities and Exchange Commission in 2020 after the regulator alleged it prematurely and improperly recorded revenue.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The company hired law firm Cooley and a forensic accounting firm to review Super Micro’s internal controls. That review remains ongoing, the company said in a regulatory filing.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SMCI":"超微电脑"},"source_url":"https://www.streetinsider.com/Corporate+News/Super+Micro+Computers+%28SMCI%29+Certifying+Accountant+Ernst+%26+Young+Resigns/23899201.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1190757025","content_text":"Super Micro Computer  shares slumped 33.75% in morning trading on Wednesday after it said Ernst & Young had resigned as its public accounting firm, over a month after Hindenburg Research alleged \"accounting manipulation\" at the AI server maker.Ernst & Young in its resignation letter said it was “unwilling to be associated with the financial statements prepared by management.” The accountancy also raised concerns about the board’s independence from CEO Charles Laing and “other members of management.”EY had been hired to audit Super Micro for the first time for the 2024 fiscal year, the company said. Super Micro has still not issued its financial statements for this year, and is reportedly under federal investigation.The auditor first flagged issues with Super Micro’s internal financial controls, governance and forthcomingness in late July, prompting the server firm to appoint a special board committee to investigate the company’s internal controls.“We are resigning due to information that has recently come to our attention which has led us to no longer be able to rely on management’s and the Audit Committee’s representations,” EY said in its resignation letter. EY’s concerns were raised prior to a short-seller report that took aim at Super Micro’s financial controls and accounting practices.Super Micro has run into trouble with regulators over its accounting practices before. It paid a $17.5 million penalty to the Securities and Exchange Commission in 2020 after the regulator alleged it prematurely and improperly recorded revenue.The company hired law firm Cooley and a forensic accounting firm to review Super Micro’s internal controls. That review remains ongoing, the company said in a regulatory filing.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":365778005541016,"gmtCreate":1730341381066,"gmtModify":1730341383560,"author":{"id":"4192641781859792","authorId":"4192641781859792","name":"Roy ong and Motorless are gay boy","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4192641781859792","authorIdStr":"4192641781859792"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great article, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great article, would you like to share it?","text":"Great article, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/365778005541016","repostId":"1124461623","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1124461623","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Track stock‘s movements and relevant news","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Stock Track","id":"1086803395","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a81accab1e7ee4144dc051f71903a390"},"pubTimestamp":1730332044,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1124461623?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-10-31 07:47","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Stock Track | Super Micro Computer Stock Plunges Over Auditor Resignation Amid Governance Concerns","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1124461623","media":"Stock Track","summary":"Shares of Super Micro Computer Inc. , a leading provider of high-performance server solutions, plummeted by over 34% in pre-market trading on Tuesday, October 30th, 2024. The sharp decline came after the company's auditor, Ernst & Young , abruptly resigned, citing concerns over governance, transparency, and the ability to rely on representations from Super Micro's management and audit committee.In a letter to Super Micro's audit committee dated October 24th, EY stated that it was resigning due t","content":"<p>Shares of Super Micro Computer Inc. (SMCI), a leading provider of high-performance server solutions, plummeted by over 34% in pre-market trading on Tuesday, October 30th, 2024. The sharp decline came after the company's auditor, Ernst & Young (EY), abruptly resigned, citing concerns over governance, transparency, and the ability to rely on representations from Super Micro's management and audit committee.</p>\n\n<p>In a letter to Super Micro's audit committee dated October 24th, EY stated that it was resigning due to \"information that has recently come to our attention which has led us to no longer be able to rely on management's and the Audit Committee's representations and to be unwilling to be associated with the financial statements prepared by management.\"</p>\n\n<p>EY's resignation has raised serious questions about the integrity of Super Micro's financial reporting and accounting practices. The auditor had previously raised concerns about governance, transparency of communications, and internal controls over financial reporting. In response, Super Micro had appointed a special committee in late July to review these matters, engaging external legal and forensic accounting advisors.</p>","source":"ai_movement_en","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stock Track | Super Micro Computer Stock Plunges Over Auditor Resignation Amid Governance Concerns</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStock Track | Super Micro Computer Stock Plunges Over Auditor Resignation Amid Governance Concerns\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1086803395\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/a81accab1e7ee4144dc051f71903a390);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Stock Track </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-10-31 07:47</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Shares of Super Micro Computer Inc. (SMCI), a leading provider of high-performance server solutions, plummeted by over 34% in pre-market trading on Tuesday, October 30th, 2024. The sharp decline came after the company's auditor, Ernst & Young (EY), abruptly resigned, citing concerns over governance, transparency, and the ability to rely on representations from Super Micro's management and audit committee.</p>\n\n<p>In a letter to Super Micro's audit committee dated October 24th, EY stated that it was resigning due to \"information that has recently come to our attention which has led us to no longer be able to rely on management's and the Audit Committee's representations and to be unwilling to be associated with the financial statements prepared by management.\"</p>\n\n<p>EY's resignation has raised serious questions about the integrity of Super Micro's financial reporting and accounting practices. The auditor had previously raised concerns about governance, transparency of communications, and internal controls over financial reporting. In response, Super Micro had appointed a special committee in late July to review these matters, engaging external legal and forensic accounting advisors.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SMCI":"超微电脑"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1124461623","content_text":"Shares of Super Micro Computer Inc. (SMCI), a leading provider of high-performance server solutions, plummeted by over 34% in pre-market trading on Tuesday, October 30th, 2024. The sharp decline came after the company's auditor, Ernst & Young (EY), abruptly resigned, citing concerns over governance, transparency, and the ability to rely on representations from Super Micro's management and audit committee.\nIn a letter to Super Micro's audit committee dated October 24th, EY stated that it was resigning due to \"information that has recently come to our attention which has led us to no longer be able to rely on management's and the Audit Committee's representations and to be unwilling to be associated with the financial statements prepared by management.\"\nEY's resignation has raised serious questions about the integrity of Super Micro's financial reporting and accounting practices. The auditor had previously raised concerns about governance, transparency of communications, and internal controls over financial reporting. In response, Super Micro had appointed a special committee in late July to review these matters, engaging external legal and forensic accounting advisors.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":364428837994648,"gmtCreate":1729982124460,"gmtModify":1729982128507,"author":{"id":"4192641781859792","authorId":"4192641781859792","name":"Roy ong and Motorless are gay boy","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4192641781859792","authorIdStr":"4192641781859792"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great article, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great article, would you like to share it?","text":"Great article, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/364428837994648","repostId":"1151660016","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1151660016","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Track stock‘s movements and relevant news","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Stock Track","id":"1086803395","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a81accab1e7ee4144dc051f71903a390"},"pubTimestamp":1729901551,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1151660016?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-10-26 08:12","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Stock Track | Canadian Solar Shares Soar 13% on Optimism for 2025 Outlook","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1151660016","media":"Stock Track","summary":"Shares of Canadian Solar Inc.  surged by 13.43% on Thursday, closing at $33.76, as investors grew increasingly bullish about the company's prospects for the upcoming year 2025.The rally comes amid expectations of a potential upcycle in the solar industry, which could provide a tailwind for Canadian Solar's performance. Analysts have highlighted the company's vertically integrated business model, geographical diversification, and significant project pipeline as potential catalysts for growth.Howe","content":"<p>Shares of Canadian Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: CSIQ) surged by 13.43% on Thursday, closing at $33.76, as investors grew increasingly bullish about the company's prospects for the upcoming year 2025.</p>\n\n<p>The rally comes amid expectations of a potential upcycle in the solar industry, which could provide a tailwind for Canadian Solar's performance. Analysts have highlighted the company's vertically integrated business model, geographical diversification, and significant project pipeline as potential catalysts for growth.</p>\n\n<p>However, the optimism is tempered by concerns over competition from Chinese manufacturers, geopolitical tensions, and the cyclical nature of the solar industry. Canadian Solar's significant exposure to China, where much of its production is based, could pose risks if tariffs or trade tensions escalate under a potential Trump presidency.</p>","source":"ai_movement_en","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stock Track | Canadian Solar Shares Soar 13% on Optimism for 2025 Outlook</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStock Track | Canadian Solar Shares Soar 13% on Optimism for 2025 Outlook\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1086803395\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/a81accab1e7ee4144dc051f71903a390);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Stock Track </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-10-26 08:12</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Shares of Canadian Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: CSIQ) surged by 13.43% on Thursday, closing at $33.76, as investors grew increasingly bullish about the company's prospects for the upcoming year 2025.</p>\n\n<p>The rally comes amid expectations of a potential upcycle in the solar industry, which could provide a tailwind for Canadian Solar's performance. Analysts have highlighted the company's vertically integrated business model, geographical diversification, and significant project pipeline as potential catalysts for growth.</p>\n\n<p>However, the optimism is tempered by concerns over competition from Chinese manufacturers, geopolitical tensions, and the cyclical nature of the solar industry. Canadian Solar's significant exposure to China, where much of its production is based, could pose risks if tariffs or trade tensions escalate under a potential Trump presidency.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"CSIQ":"阿特斯太阳能"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1151660016","content_text":"Shares of Canadian Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: CSIQ) surged by 13.43% on Thursday, closing at $33.76, as investors grew increasingly bullish about the company's prospects for the upcoming year 2025.\nThe rally comes amid expectations of a potential upcycle in the solar industry, which could provide a tailwind for Canadian Solar's performance. Analysts have highlighted the company's vertically integrated business model, geographical diversification, and significant project pipeline as potential catalysts for growth.\nHowever, the optimism is tempered by concerns over competition from Chinese manufacturers, geopolitical tensions, and the cyclical nature of the solar industry. Canadian Solar's significant exposure to China, where much of its production is based, could pose risks if tariffs or trade tensions escalate under a potential Trump presidency.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":364394469748904,"gmtCreate":1729973734182,"gmtModify":1729997866340,"author":{"id":"4192641781859792","authorId":"4192641781859792","name":"Roy ong and Motorless are gay boy","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4192641781859792","authorIdStr":"4192641781859792"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Replying to <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/4132300740238052\">@icycrystal</a>:SKY NG LENG HWEE//<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/4132300740238052\">@icycrystal</a>:not sure if it's the best time to invest in Chinese stock since it seems to have not recover... however, on the other hand, it may be an opportunity to buy at a good price and wait for its recovery... <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/4113904591642392\"> @</a><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/4113904591642392\">LMSunshine</a><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/4113904591642392\"> </a><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/4100927749199030\"> @</a><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/4100927749199030\">rL</a><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/4100927749199030\"> </a><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/3581735774790928\"> @</a>","listText":"Replying to <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/4132300740238052\">@icycrystal</a>:SKY NG LENG HWEE//<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/4132300740238052\">@icycrystal</a>:not sure if it's the best time to invest in Chinese stock since it seems to have not recover... however, on the other hand, it may be an opportunity to buy at a good price and wait for its recovery... <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/4113904591642392\"> @</a><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/4113904591642392\">LMSunshine</a><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/4113904591642392\"> </a><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/4100927749199030\"> @</a><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/4100927749199030\">rL</a><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/4100927749199030\"> </a><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/3581735774790928\"> @</a>","text":"Replying to @icycrystal:SKY NG LENG HWEE//@icycrystal:not sure if it's the best time to invest in Chinese stock since it seems to have not recover... however, on the other hand, it may be an opportunity to buy at a good price and wait for its recovery... @LMSunshine @rL @","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/364394469748904","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":88,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4141429963588842","authorId":"4141429963588842","name":"TigerGPT","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5b82af1deb17dfa8f94b4741b9ea2738","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4141429963588842","authorIdStr":"4141429963588842"},"content":"It's true that things aren't doing very well for the Chinese stock market right now, but whether it's the best time to invest remains to be seen. Investing in stocks requires consideration of many factors, including macroeconomic conditions, industry outlook, company financial status, etc. If you think the Chinese stock market has great long-term potential and have the patience to wait for the stock price to recover, then now may be a time to consider investing. In addition, undervalued stock prices may provide better buying opportunities for investment. However, I recommend conducting adequate research and research before making investment decisions. You can pay attention to relevant news and opinions to understand the trends and forecasts of China's stock market, and you can also consider consulting professional investment consultants for more advice. It should be noted that there are risks in the stock market, so investment needs to be cautious. The above information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.","text":"It's true that things aren't doing very well for the Chinese stock market right now, but whether it's the best time to invest remains to be seen. Investing in stocks requires consideration of many factors, including macroeconomic conditions, industry outlook, company financial status, etc. If you think the Chinese stock market has great long-term potential and have the patience to wait for the stock price to recover, then now may be a time to consider investing. In addition, undervalued stock prices may provide better buying opportunities for investment. However, I recommend conducting adequate research and research before making investment decisions. You can pay attention to relevant news and opinions to understand the trends and forecasts of China's stock market, and you can also consider consulting professional investment consultants for more advice. It should be noted that there are risks in the stock market, so investment needs to be cautious. The above information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.","html":"It's true that things aren't doing very well for the Chinese stock market right now, but whether it's the best time to invest remains to be seen. Investing in stocks requires consideration of many factors, including macroeconomic conditions, industry outlook, company financial status, etc. If you think the Chinese stock market has great long-term potential and have the patience to wait for the stock price to recover, then now may be a time to consider investing. In addition, undervalued stock prices may provide better buying opportunities for investment. However, I recommend conducting adequate research and research before making investment decisions. You can pay attention to relevant news and opinions to understand the trends and forecasts of China's stock market, and you can also consider consulting professional investment consultants for more advice. It should be noted that there are risks in the stock market, so investment needs to be cautious. The above information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice."}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":364357029093544,"gmtCreate":1729964593397,"gmtModify":1729964596290,"author":{"id":"4192641781859792","authorId":"4192641781859792","name":"Roy ong and Motorless are gay boy","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4192641781859792","authorIdStr":"4192641781859792"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/D01.SI\">$DFIRG USD(D01.SI)$&nbsp;</a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/D01.SI\">$DFIRG USD(D01.SI)$&nbsp;</a>&nbsp;","text":"$DFIRG USD(D01.SI)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/364357029093544","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":364349136376048,"gmtCreate":1729962752480,"gmtModify":1729997928488,"author":{"id":"4192641781859792","authorId":"4192641781859792","name":"Roy ong and Motorless are gay boy","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4192641781859792","authorIdStr":"4192641781859792"},"themes":[],"title":"Happy 59th Birthday Singapore!","htmlText":"Find out more here:<a href=\"https://tigr.link/to?data=aHR0cHM6Ly9zZy5ldGFzcGhlcmUuY29tL3NnL21hcmtldGluZy93ZWxjb21lc2cwOD9pc19pbnZpdGU9dHJ1ZSZ1dG1fY2FtcGFpZ249QUMxNzEzMTcxNjA3NzU2dUthcWNRJmFkY29kZT1BQzE3MTMxNjc1NjYxNTRQaGdNQWgmdXRtX21lZGl1bT10aWdlcl9jb21tdW5pdHkmc2tpbj0xJmVkaXRpb249ZnVuZGFtZW50YWwmc2hhcmVJRD1hYzdkNDY0NGIyNWQ5MzNjYWFhN2M3NjAxZjk4MGU1OSZwbGF0Zm9ybT1hbmRyb2lkJmFjY291bnRfZGlzcGxheT1nbG9iYWwmb3JpZ2luYWxfbW9kdWxlPW15X3Byb2ZpbGVfYWN0aXZpdHkmaW52aXRlPUI2QUg1SCZsYW5nPWVuX05aJnV0bV9zb3VyY2U9aW52aXRl\">Happy 59th Birthday Singapore!</a> Join us to receive up to USD 1006 rewards Roy NG LENG HWEE&nbsp;","listText":"Find out more here:<a href=\"https://tigr.link/to?data=aHR0cHM6Ly9zZy5ldGFzcGhlcmUuY29tL3NnL21hcmtldGluZy93ZWxjb21lc2cwOD9pc19pbnZpdGU9dHJ1ZSZ1dG1fY2FtcGFpZ249QUMxNzEzMTcxNjA3NzU2dUthcWNRJmFkY29kZT1BQzE3MTMxNjc1NjYxNTRQaGdNQWgmdXRtX21lZGl1bT10aWdlcl9jb21tdW5pdHkmc2tpbj0xJmVkaXRpb249ZnVuZGFtZW50YWwmc2hhcmVJRD1hYzdkNDY0NGIyNWQ5MzNjYWFhN2M3NjAxZjk4MGU1OSZwbGF0Zm9ybT1hbmRyb2lkJmFjY291bnRfZGlzcGxheT1nbG9iYWwmb3JpZ2luYWxfbW9kdWxlPW15X3Byb2ZpbGVfYWN0aXZpdHkmaW52aXRlPUI2QUg1SCZsYW5nPWVuX05aJnV0bV9zb3VyY2U9aW52aXRl\">Happy 59th Birthday Singapore!</a> Join us to receive up to USD 1006 rewards Roy NG LENG HWEE&nbsp;","text":"Find out more here:Happy 59th Birthday Singapore! Join us to receive up to USD 1006 rewards Roy NG LENG HWEE","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/364349136376048","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":364215818895360,"gmtCreate":1729930116923,"gmtModify":1729930119069,"author":{"id":"4192641781859792","authorId":"4192641781859792","name":"Roy ong and Motorless are gay boy","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4192641781859792","authorIdStr":"4192641781859792"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"SKY NG LENG HWEE&nbsp;","listText":"SKY NG LENG HWEE&nbsp;","text":"SKY NG LENG HWEE","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/364215818895360","repostId":"2475314672","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2475314672","pubTimestamp":1728980883,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2475314672?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-10-15 16:28","market":"fut","language":"en","title":"Amazon: Deep Dive Shows Massive Upside","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2475314672","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"I previously rated Amazon.com, Inc. as a Strong Buy in December 2023 with a price target of $180, which the stock has now reached.Amazon operates in six major segments: 1st Party, 3rd Party, Physical,","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li><p>I previously rated Amazon.com, Inc. as a Strong Buy in December 2023 with a price target of $180, which the stock has now reached.</p></li><li><p>Amazon operates in six major segments: 1st Party, 3rd Party, Physical, Subscriptions, Advertising, and Cloud, each contributing uniquely to its revenue.</p></li><li><p>A Bear- and Bull-Case Discounted Cash Flow Analysis was used to evaluate Amazon, considering growth rates and EBIT-margins for each segment.</p></li><li><p>Given this valuation method, the company could currently be undervalued by up to 117%.</p></li></ul><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3eb2610a8104c2fa1647f9a96f69c969\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\"/></p><p>Julie Clopper</p><p></p><p>In this article, we are revisiting <strong>Amazon.com, Inc.</strong> (NASDAQ:AMZN) from my latest article on AMZN in December 2023, where I rated the company as a Strong Buy with a price target of $180. From this, the stock returned a solid 25% to today&#39;s price, meaning that we are currently pretty much at my then defined price target.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6add3aff830a3ce3585db3c5f1d07607\" tg-width=\"297\" tg-height=\"413\"/></p><p>My Amazon Stock Coverage (seekingalpha.com)</p><p></p><p>To get a realistic valuation, we briefly analyze every business segment of AMZN, define suitable growth rates and EBIT margins for each segment and finally evaluate the whole company using a Bear- and Bull-Case Discounted Cash Flow Analysis. For more details on the different segments of Amazon and their current operations, please refer to the above-mentioned article.</p><h3 id=\"id_4282393402\">Starting Point</h3><p>Since Amazon isn&#39;t declaring the profitability of each of its business segments, we have to get a bit creative here to get a financial starting point for our following analysis. Amazon is declaring the profitability of the AWS (Cloud) segment separately from the rest, meaning we can at least use this as the first anchoring point. Since subscriptions, 1st and 3rd party are connected through offerings like free shipping with Amazon Prime, I tried to at least find a suitable profitability metric for the advertisement segment of Amazon. The two main competitors in the advertising space, Google (GOOG) (GOOGL) and Meta (META), are currently having EBIT margins in the range of 25% to 40%. For our starting point, I assumed an EBIT margin of 25% in Amazon&#39;s advertisement segment.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/720ac9939c6602941b7d6abc456bffac\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"439\"/></p><p>Data by YCharts</p><p></p><p>To then get close to the stated EBIT of each year, I then broke down the remaining EBIT on the remaining business sectors for each financial year. Because some segments overlap, it is exceedingly difficult to forecast exact measurements in this case. These measurements, however, simply represent the beginning of each segment.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a2de9bc4277966ab3fcd52b5a64c3762\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"57\"/></p><p>Assumptions Starting Point (own assumptions)</p><p></p><h2 id=\"id_1968806287\">eCommerce (1st and 3rd Party)</h2><p>The eCommerce market is expected to grow at a CAGR of ~9.5% over the various markets until 2029.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/22779c48593812f88244e1b6515bc0a3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"248\"/></p><p>eCommerce Growth per Region 2024 to 2029 (statista.com)</p><p></p><p>If we factor in the increasing priority of 3rd party at Amazon, we can assume the following growth rates for the eCommerce business segments.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b8b262603df9e0597e30ccbf9d9d345b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"388\"/></p><p>Amazon 1st vs. 3rd party sales (statista.com)</p><p></p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/58bed054f059a5a604d0670d32bb4740\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"400\"/></p><p>Amazon share of 3rd party sales of the years (statista.com)</p><p></p><h4 id=\"id_2376152078\">1st Party</h4><p>Bear: 3% p.a.</p><p>Bull: 5% p.a.</p><h4 id=\"id_230580202\">3rd Party</h4><p>Bear: 10% p.a.</p><p>Bull: 15% p.a.</p><p>These seem rather conservative, factoring in the latest growth rates in the 3rd party segment of 13.9% in 2022 and 19% in 2023.</p><p>The average net margin for the online retail is right around 7%.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ff011eb64a8b9c005b559b9d5e83f4f6\" tg-width=\"935\" tg-height=\"518\"/></p><p>Average net margin per business segment 2022 (statista.com)</p><p></p><p>I think given this metric, we can assume the following margin development for the 1st party from the above defined starting point.</p><table style=\"border-collapse:collapse;\"><tbody><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>EBIT Margin 1st</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2023</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2024</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2025</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2026</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2027</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2028</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2029</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2030</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2031</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Bear</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-6%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-3%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>0%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>4%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>5%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>5%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>5%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>5%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Bull</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-6%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>0%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2.5%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>5%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>7.5%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>7.5%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>7.5%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>7.5%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>7.5%</p></td></tr></tbody></table><p>Click to enlarge</p><p>Taking a look at the 3rd party margins, it becomes apparent why Amazon is increasingly focusing in this segment. The margins of the two main competitors, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EBAY\">eBay</a> (EBAY) and Etsy (ETSY), are currently sitting right around 10% to 38%. While the average of eBay over the last few years was more right around 25%.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4e2e98890cdc59162e269256a1c0eee9\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"439\"/></p><p>Data by YCharts</p><p></p><p>I think that it is reasonable to assume that Amazon will - eventually - achieve similar margins to eBay, which gives us the following assumptions:</p><table style=\"border-collapse:collapse;\"><tbody><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>EBIT Margin 3rd</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2023</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2024</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2025</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2026</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2027</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2028</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2029</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2030</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2031</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Bear</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>4.5%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>10%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>15%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>15%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>15%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>15%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>15%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>15%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>15%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Bull</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>4.5%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>15%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>25%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>25%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>25%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>25%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>25%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>25%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>25%</p></td></tr></tbody></table><p>Click to enlarge</p><h2 id=\"id_1701601226\">Physical Stores</h2><p>This segment is a slow growth and low margin business for Amazon, taking a look at recent growth rates of this segment and the EBIT-margin of one major competitor, Kroger (KR).</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9d0ed02fce4708cdc028cf6556766ca8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"30\"/></p><p>Amazon Physical Stores Growth(Amazon Quarterly Earnings Q1/23 to Q2/24)</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/526d47eced6c932749b47386d8626529\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"424\"/></p><p>Data by YCharts</p><p></p><p>Keeping this in mind, the following assumptions seem fitting:</p><p>Bear: 3% p.a.</p><p>Bull: 10% p.a.</p><p>Considering the &#34;cashierless&#34; technology of Amazon in this segment, the profitability should improve, giving us the following EBIT assumptions:</p><p>Bear: 5%</p><p>Bull: 10%</p><p>Without wasting more time with this rather unimportant segment, we jump right into the more promising segment subscriptions.</p><h2 id=\"id_3180827049\">Subscriptions</h2><p>The revenue growth rate in this segment is currently at around 11%, a slight decline from historical numbers of ~30%.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/73f19474d7d9242018f447abbce8dc2c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"32\"/></p><p>Amazon Subscriptions Growth (Amazon Quarterly Earnings Q1/23 to Q2/24)</p><p></p><table style=\"border-collapse:collapse;\"><tbody><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>[million USD]</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2018</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2019</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2020</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2021</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2022</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2023</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Revenue</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>14,168</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>19,210</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>25,207</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>31,768</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>35,218</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>40,761</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>YOY Growth</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>46%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>36%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>31%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>26%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>11%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>15%</p></td></tr></tbody></table><p>Click to enlarge</p><p>If we take a look at the whole streaming market, experts are currently projecting a CAGR of 18.7% for the whole market until 2031. Therefore, the following growth rates seem viable:</p><p>Bear: 7.5% p.a.</p><p>Bull: 15% p.a.</p><p>If we now take a look at the margins of the comparable business Netflix (NFLX), the following assumptions for profitability should be suitable:</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9051a799240375842ed05326bdd5ef72\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"424\"/></p><p>Data by YCharts</p><p></p><p>Bear: 15%</p><p>Bull: 25%.</p><h2 id=\"id_1823772008\">Advertising</h2><p>The advertising segment for me is one of the most exciting and compelling business segments of Amazon. If we take a look at the financial metrics, it becomes apparent why I think so.</p><p>The digital advertising spending worldwide is expected to grow at a CAGR of 15.5% until 2030.</p><p>This is already pretty impressive, if we however factor in that Amazon is currently - apart from TikTok - the only major competitor that is gaining market share in this very saturated market, the prospects look even better.</p><p></p><p><social-image src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/10/14/51058349-17289208648740807.png\"></social-image></p><p>Share of major ad-selling companies in digital advertising (statista.com)</p><p></p><p>Given this development, these growth metrics seem fitting for the advertising segment.</p><p>Bear: 10% p.a.</p><p>Bull: 20% p.a.</p><p>Like mentioned at our starting point, the EBIT-margins of Meta and Google are currently at around 25% to 40%, with Google being suppressed by their massive <em>Others</em> segment. More on this issue in my latest Google article. Amazon should be able to at least achieve similar margins or might even be able to surpass these, as their ads are way more targeted towards customers that are already willing to buy something. Since they are already on Amazon&#39;s side surfing for products to buy. Because of this, I came up with the following assumptions:</p><table style=\"border-collapse:collapse;\"><tbody><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>EBIT Margin Ads</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2023</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2024</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2025</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2026</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2027</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2028</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2029</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2030</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2031</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Bear</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>25%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>30%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>30%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>30%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>30%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>30%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>30%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>30%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>30%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Bull</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>25%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>30%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>35%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>40%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>45%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>45%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>45%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>45%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>45%</p></td></tr></tbody></table><p>Click to enlarge</p><h2 id=\"id_1675279717\">Cloud - AWS</h2><p>The global cloud, market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 21.2% from 2024 to 2030. As Amazon is currently maintaining its dominant market share, a growth rate right around the market growth rate looks promising.</p><p></p><p><social-image src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/10/14/51058349-17289214849984775.png\"></social-image></p><p>Cloud Infrastructure Market Share per Quarter (statista.com)</p><p></p><p>Bear: 15% p.a.</p><p>Bull: 20% p.a.</p><p>With our Bull Case, I only projected 20% annual growth because it appears unfeasible to rise beyond the market given the already massive market share and the elevated growth rate of 20% for 8 years.</p><p>For the profitability, I assumed the following metrics:</p><table style=\"border-collapse:collapse;\"><tbody><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>EBIT Margin AWS</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2023</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2024</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2025</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2026</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2027</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2028</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2029</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2030</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2031</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Bear</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>27%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>25%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>25%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>25%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>25%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>25%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>25%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>25%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>25%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Bull</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>27%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>35%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>35%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>35%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>35%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>35%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>35%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>35%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>35%</p></td></tr></tbody></table><p>Click to enlarge</p><h2 id=\"id_1677487832\">Discounted Cash Flow Analysis</h2><p>For our Discounted Cash Flow Analysis (&#34;DCF&#34;), we need a few additional assumptions.</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>Tax Rate:</strong> Here I averaged out the last four years and arrived at an average tax rate of 14.4%.</p></li><li><p><strong>Free Cash Flow Conversion:</strong> I found an appropriate EBIAT to Free Cash Flow Ratio after computing the EBIAT using the tax rate given above. Since 2021 and 2022 appear to be outliers in this case, I averaged out the EBIAT To FCF from 2017 through 2020 and 2023. This gave me a conversion rate of 101%. For an additional margin of safety, I used 85% in the following DCF.</p></li></ul><table style=\"border-collapse:collapse;\"><colgroup><col/></colgroup><tbody><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2017</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2018</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2019</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2020</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2021</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2022</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2023</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>EBIAT</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>3,277</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>11,104</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>12,069</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>20,197</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>21,744</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>10,729</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>31,545</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>EBIAT to FCF</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>154%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>75%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>114%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>54%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-142%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-208%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>117%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>FCF</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>8,307</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>19,400</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>25,800</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>31,020</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-9,069</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-11,569</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>36,800</p></td></tr></tbody></table><p>Click to enlarge</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>WACC:</strong> Here I used 9%, which is also higher than Amazon&#39;s current WACC meaning additional margin of safety.</p></li><li><p><strong>Perpetuity Growth Rate:</strong> Here I used 3%, which is pretty conservative for this company if you ask me.</p></li></ul><h3 id=\"id_4114785257\">Bear-Case</h3><p></p><p><social-image src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/10/13/51058349-1728820166087182.png\"></social-image></p><p>Main Assumptions Amazon Bear-Case (aboutamazon.com; seekingalpha.com; own assumptions)</p><p><social-image src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/10/13/51058349-17288192091753738.png\"></social-image></p><p>DCF Amazon Bear I (aboutamazon.com; seekingalpha.com; own assumptions)</p><p><social-image src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/10/13/51058349-17288192662678003.png\"></social-image></p><p>DCF Amazon Bear II (aboutamazon.com; seekingalpha.com; own assumptions)</p><p></p><p>With our Bear-Case DCF, we get a target share price of ~$150, indicating that the company could currently be overvalued by 20%. However, keep in mind that this factors in decelerating growth rates below-market rates and lower profitability compared to competitors.</p><h2 id=\"id_738275189\">Bull-Case</h2><p></p><p><social-image src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/10/13/51058349-17288201919055088.png\"></social-image></p><p>Main Assumptions Bull-Case (aboutamazon.com; seekingalpha.com; own assumptions)</p><p><social-image src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/10/13/51058349-1728819551935197.png\"></social-image></p><p>DCF Amazon Bull I (aboutamazon.com; seekingalpha.com; own assumptions)</p><p><social-image src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/10/13/51058349-17288196208292644.png\"></social-image></p><p>DCF Amazon Bull II (aboutamazon.com; seekingalpha.com; own assumptions)</p><p></p><p>The Bull-Case indicated a fair value share price of ~$318, which would translate in an undervaluation of a whopping 117%! On the other hand, they include profit margins that are larger than those of their main rivals and growth rates that surpass the market.</p><h2 id=\"id_550457842\">Conclusion</h2><p>If we take a look at the last year of our Bull-Case scenarios, we can clearly see on what segments Amazon should focus on in the upcoming years.</p><p></p><p><social-image src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/10/13/51058349-17288202303395493.png\"></social-image></p><p>2031 Bull-Case Prediction (DCF)</p><p></p><p>The biggest EBIT contributors are the Cloud, Advertising and 3rd Party segment. This is why in the upcoming earnings call (earnings to be released on October 25th), I will lay special emphasis on the relevant metrics in these few segments. I also would prefer if Amazon starts to stop &#34;experiments&#34; like the physical stores and focus on their core growth catalysts.</p><p>With our Bear- and Bull-Case analysis, we get a miss-pricing in the range of -20% to 117%. As always, the truth is probably laying somewhere in between these two scenarios, since some risks, like another lawsuit, can&#39;t really be considered in such an DCF-analysis.</p><p>I nevertheless think that the current valuation is still a very good entry point into Amazon, considering that the assumptions we made are very realistic and could very well exactly play out as expected. That is why I currently rate the Stock a Strong Buy, with a medium term price target of $220.</p><p>If you have read this far, please consider following me for more deep-dives! Thank you so much for reading!</p><p><strong><em>Editor&#39;s Note</em></strong><em>: This article was submitted as part of Seeking Alpha&#39;s</em> <em>Best Value Idea investment competition, which runs through October 14. With cash prizes, this competition -- open to all analysts -- is one you don&#39;t want to miss. If you are interested in becoming an analyst and taking part in the competition,</em> <em>click here</em> <em>to find out more and submit your article today!</em></p><p>Editor&#39;s Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Amazon: Deep Dive Shows Massive Upside</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAmazon: Deep Dive Shows Massive Upside\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-10-15 16:28 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4726684-amazon-deep-dive-shows-massive-upside><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>I previously rated Amazon.com, Inc. as a Strong Buy in December 2023 with a price target of $180, which the stock has now reached.Amazon operates in six major segments: 1st Party, 3rd Party, Physical,...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4726684-amazon-deep-dive-shows-massive-upside\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4561":"索罗斯持仓","IE00BKPKM429.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE0005OL40V9.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A6M\" (USD) INC","IE00BZ1G4Q59.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE US EQUITY SUSTAINABILITY LEADER \"A\"(USD) INC (A)","IE00BK4W5L77.USD":"HSBC GLOBAL FUNDS ICAV US EQUITY INDEX \"HC\" (USD) ACC","LU0061474705.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL DYNAMIC REAL RETURN \"AU\" (USD) ACC","IE00BK4W5M84.HKD":"HSBC GLOBAL FUNDS ICAV US EQUITY INDEX \"HC\" (HKD) ACC","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","IE00BJLML261.HKD":"HSBC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"HCH\" (HKD) ACC","IE00B1BXHZ80.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Appreciation A Acc USD","LU0061475181.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) AMERICAN \"AU\" (USD) ACC","IE00BMPRXQ63.HKD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN NEXT GENERATION CONNECTIVITY FUND \"A\" (HKDHDG) ACC","IE00BFSS8Q28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD-H","BK4592":"伊斯兰概念","IE0009356076.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION \"A2\" (USD) ACC","IE00BJTD4N35.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Long Short Equity A1  Acc SGD-H","IE00B7KXQ091.USD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc USD","AMZN":"亚马逊","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4507":"流媒体概念","IE00BFSS7M15.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD-H","IE0004086264.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4566":"资本集团","IE00B3S45H60.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Multicap Opportunities A Acc SGD-H","IE0004445239.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON US FORTY \"A2\" (USD) ACC","IE00B19Z9505.USD":"美盛-美国大盘成长股A Acc","IE00BJJMRX11.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD","IE00BN29S564.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A3\" (USD) INC","LU0072462426.USD":"贝莱德全球配置 A2","BK4524":"宅经济概念","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","LU0079474960.USD":"联博美国增长基金A","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","LU0082616367.USD":"摩根大通美国科技A（dist）","GB00BDT5M118.USD":"天利环球扩展Alpha基金A Acc","BK4538":"云计算","IE0034235303.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US RESEARCH ENHANCED CORE EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4579":"人工智能","LU0080751232.USD":"富达环球多元动力基金A","LU0061474960.USD":"天利环球焦点基金AU Acc","BK4588":"碎股","IE00BMPRXR70.SGD":"Neuberger Berman 5G Connectivity A Acc SGD-H","IE00BKDWB100.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5H\" (SGDHDG) ACC","BK4122":"互联网与直销零售","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","IE00B775H168.HKD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A5M\" (HKD) INC"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4726684-amazon-deep-dive-shows-massive-upside","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2475314672","content_text":"I previously rated Amazon.com, Inc. as a Strong Buy in December 2023 with a price target of $180, which the stock has now reached.Amazon operates in six major segments: 1st Party, 3rd Party, Physical, Subscriptions, Advertising, and Cloud, each contributing uniquely to its revenue.A Bear- and Bull-Case Discounted Cash Flow Analysis was used to evaluate Amazon, considering growth rates and EBIT-margins for each segment.Given this valuation method, the company could currently be undervalued by up to 117%.Julie ClopperIn this article, we are revisiting Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) from my latest article on AMZN in December 2023, where I rated the company as a Strong Buy with a price target of $180. From this, the stock returned a solid 25% to today's price, meaning that we are currently pretty much at my then defined price target.My Amazon Stock Coverage (seekingalpha.com)To get a realistic valuation, we briefly analyze every business segment of AMZN, define suitable growth rates and EBIT margins for each segment and finally evaluate the whole company using a Bear- and Bull-Case Discounted Cash Flow Analysis. For more details on the different segments of Amazon and their current operations, please refer to the above-mentioned article.Starting PointSince Amazon isn't declaring the profitability of each of its business segments, we have to get a bit creative here to get a financial starting point for our following analysis. Amazon is declaring the profitability of the AWS (Cloud) segment separately from the rest, meaning we can at least use this as the first anchoring point. Since subscriptions, 1st and 3rd party are connected through offerings like free shipping with Amazon Prime, I tried to at least find a suitable profitability metric for the advertisement segment of Amazon. The two main competitors in the advertising space, Google (GOOG) (GOOGL) and Meta (META), are currently having EBIT margins in the range of 25% to 40%. For our starting point, I assumed an EBIT margin of 25% in Amazon's advertisement segment.Data by YChartsTo then get close to the stated EBIT of each year, I then broke down the remaining EBIT on the remaining business sectors for each financial year. Because some segments overlap, it is exceedingly difficult to forecast exact measurements in this case. These measurements, however, simply represent the beginning of each segment.Assumptions Starting Point (own assumptions)eCommerce (1st and 3rd Party)The eCommerce market is expected to grow at a CAGR of ~9.5% over the various markets until 2029.eCommerce Growth per Region 2024 to 2029 (statista.com)If we factor in the increasing priority of 3rd party at Amazon, we can assume the following growth rates for the eCommerce business segments.Amazon 1st vs. 3rd party sales (statista.com)Amazon share of 3rd party sales of the years (statista.com)1st PartyBear: 3% p.a.Bull: 5% p.a.3rd PartyBear: 10% p.a.Bull: 15% p.a.These seem rather conservative, factoring in the latest growth rates in the 3rd party segment of 13.9% in 2022 and 19% in 2023.The average net margin for the online retail is right around 7%.Average net margin per business segment 2022 (statista.com)I think given this metric, we can assume the following margin development for the 1st party from the above defined starting point.EBIT Margin 1st202320242025202620272028202920302031Bear-6%-3%0%2%4%5%5%5%5%Bull-6%0%2.5%5%7.5%7.5%7.5%7.5%7.5%Click to enlargeTaking a look at the 3rd party margins, it becomes apparent why Amazon is increasingly focusing in this segment. The margins of the two main competitors, eBay (EBAY) and Etsy (ETSY), are currently sitting right around 10% to 38%. While the average of eBay over the last few years was more right around 25%.Data by YChartsI think that it is reasonable to assume that Amazon will - eventually - achieve similar margins to eBay, which gives us the following assumptions:EBIT Margin 3rd202320242025202620272028202920302031Bear4.5%10%15%15%15%15%15%15%15%Bull4.5%15%25%25%25%25%25%25%25%Click to enlargePhysical StoresThis segment is a slow growth and low margin business for Amazon, taking a look at recent growth rates of this segment and the EBIT-margin of one major competitor, Kroger (KR).Amazon Physical Stores Growth(Amazon Quarterly Earnings Q1/23 to Q2/24)Data by YChartsKeeping this in mind, the following assumptions seem fitting:Bear: 3% p.a.Bull: 10% p.a.Considering the \"cashierless\" technology of Amazon in this segment, the profitability should improve, giving us the following EBIT assumptions:Bear: 5%Bull: 10%Without wasting more time with this rather unimportant segment, we jump right into the more promising segment subscriptions.SubscriptionsThe revenue growth rate in this segment is currently at around 11%, a slight decline from historical numbers of ~30%.Amazon Subscriptions Growth (Amazon Quarterly Earnings Q1/23 to Q2/24)[million USD]201820192020202120222023Revenue14,16819,21025,20731,76835,21840,761YOY Growth46%36%31%26%11%15%Click to enlargeIf we take a look at the whole streaming market, experts are currently projecting a CAGR of 18.7% for the whole market until 2031. Therefore, the following growth rates seem viable:Bear: 7.5% p.a.Bull: 15% p.a.If we now take a look at the margins of the comparable business Netflix (NFLX), the following assumptions for profitability should be suitable:Data by YChartsBear: 15%Bull: 25%.AdvertisingThe advertising segment for me is one of the most exciting and compelling business segments of Amazon. If we take a look at the financial metrics, it becomes apparent why I think so.The digital advertising spending worldwide is expected to grow at a CAGR of 15.5% until 2030.This is already pretty impressive, if we however factor in that Amazon is currently - apart from TikTok - the only major competitor that is gaining market share in this very saturated market, the prospects look even better.Share of major ad-selling companies in digital advertising (statista.com)Given this development, these growth metrics seem fitting for the advertising segment.Bear: 10% p.a.Bull: 20% p.a.Like mentioned at our starting point, the EBIT-margins of Meta and Google are currently at around 25% to 40%, with Google being suppressed by their massive Others segment. More on this issue in my latest Google article. Amazon should be able to at least achieve similar margins or might even be able to surpass these, as their ads are way more targeted towards customers that are already willing to buy something. Since they are already on Amazon's side surfing for products to buy. Because of this, I came up with the following assumptions:EBIT Margin Ads202320242025202620272028202920302031Bear25%30%30%30%30%30%30%30%30%Bull25%30%35%40%45%45%45%45%45%Click to enlargeCloud - AWSThe global cloud, market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 21.2% from 2024 to 2030. As Amazon is currently maintaining its dominant market share, a growth rate right around the market growth rate looks promising.Cloud Infrastructure Market Share per Quarter (statista.com)Bear: 15% p.a.Bull: 20% p.a.With our Bull Case, I only projected 20% annual growth because it appears unfeasible to rise beyond the market given the already massive market share and the elevated growth rate of 20% for 8 years.For the profitability, I assumed the following metrics:EBIT Margin AWS202320242025202620272028202920302031Bear27%25%25%25%25%25%25%25%25%Bull27%35%35%35%35%35%35%35%35%Click to enlargeDiscounted Cash Flow AnalysisFor our Discounted Cash Flow Analysis (\"DCF\"), we need a few additional assumptions.Tax Rate: Here I averaged out the last four years and arrived at an average tax rate of 14.4%.Free Cash Flow Conversion: I found an appropriate EBIAT to Free Cash Flow Ratio after computing the EBIAT using the tax rate given above. Since 2021 and 2022 appear to be outliers in this case, I averaged out the EBIAT To FCF from 2017 through 2020 and 2023. This gave me a conversion rate of 101%. For an additional margin of safety, I used 85% in the following DCF.2017201820192020202120222023EBIAT3,27711,10412,06920,19721,74410,72931,545EBIAT to FCF154%75%114%54%-142%-208%117%FCF8,30719,40025,80031,020-9,069-11,56936,800Click to enlargeWACC: Here I used 9%, which is also higher than Amazon's current WACC meaning additional margin of safety.Perpetuity Growth Rate: Here I used 3%, which is pretty conservative for this company if you ask me.Bear-CaseMain Assumptions Amazon Bear-Case (aboutamazon.com; seekingalpha.com; own assumptions)DCF Amazon Bear I (aboutamazon.com; seekingalpha.com; own assumptions)DCF Amazon Bear II (aboutamazon.com; seekingalpha.com; own assumptions)With our Bear-Case DCF, we get a target share price of ~$150, indicating that the company could currently be overvalued by 20%. However, keep in mind that this factors in decelerating growth rates below-market rates and lower profitability compared to competitors.Bull-CaseMain Assumptions Bull-Case (aboutamazon.com; seekingalpha.com; own assumptions)DCF Amazon Bull I (aboutamazon.com; seekingalpha.com; own assumptions)DCF Amazon Bull II (aboutamazon.com; seekingalpha.com; own assumptions)The Bull-Case indicated a fair value share price of ~$318, which would translate in an undervaluation of a whopping 117%! On the other hand, they include profit margins that are larger than those of their main rivals and growth rates that surpass the market.ConclusionIf we take a look at the last year of our Bull-Case scenarios, we can clearly see on what segments Amazon should focus on in the upcoming years.2031 Bull-Case Prediction (DCF)The biggest EBIT contributors are the Cloud, Advertising and 3rd Party segment. This is why in the upcoming earnings call (earnings to be released on October 25th), I will lay special emphasis on the relevant metrics in these few segments. I also would prefer if Amazon starts to stop \"experiments\" like the physical stores and focus on their core growth catalysts.With our Bear- and Bull-Case analysis, we get a miss-pricing in the range of -20% to 117%. As always, the truth is probably laying somewhere in between these two scenarios, since some risks, like another lawsuit, can't really be considered in such an DCF-analysis.I nevertheless think that the current valuation is still a very good entry point into Amazon, considering that the assumptions we made are very realistic and could very well exactly play out as expected. That is why I currently rate the Stock a Strong Buy, with a medium term price target of $220.If you have read this far, please consider following me for more deep-dives! Thank you so much for reading!Editor's Note: This article was submitted as part of Seeking Alpha's Best Value Idea investment competition, which runs through October 14. With cash prizes, this competition -- open to all analysts -- is one you don't want to miss. If you are interested in becoming an analyst and taking part in the competition, click here to find out more and submit your article today!Editor's Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":364215691161792,"gmtCreate":1729930087343,"gmtModify":1729930089724,"author":{"id":"4192641781859792","authorId":"4192641781859792","name":"Roy ong and Motorless are gay boy","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4192641781859792","authorIdStr":"4192641781859792"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"SKY NG LENG HWEE&nbsp;","listText":"SKY NG LENG HWEE&nbsp;","text":"SKY NG LENG HWEE","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/364215691161792","repostId":"2475314672","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2475314672","pubTimestamp":1728980883,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2475314672?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-10-15 16:28","market":"fut","language":"en","title":"Amazon: Deep Dive Shows Massive Upside","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2475314672","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"I previously rated Amazon.com, Inc. as a Strong Buy in December 2023 with a price target of $180, which the stock has now reached.Amazon operates in six major segments: 1st Party, 3rd Party, Physical,","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li><p>I previously rated Amazon.com, Inc. as a Strong Buy in December 2023 with a price target of $180, which the stock has now reached.</p></li><li><p>Amazon operates in six major segments: 1st Party, 3rd Party, Physical, Subscriptions, Advertising, and Cloud, each contributing uniquely to its revenue.</p></li><li><p>A Bear- and Bull-Case Discounted Cash Flow Analysis was used to evaluate Amazon, considering growth rates and EBIT-margins for each segment.</p></li><li><p>Given this valuation method, the company could currently be undervalued by up to 117%.</p></li></ul><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3eb2610a8104c2fa1647f9a96f69c969\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\"/></p><p>Julie Clopper</p><p></p><p>In this article, we are revisiting <strong>Amazon.com, Inc.</strong> (NASDAQ:AMZN) from my latest article on AMZN in December 2023, where I rated the company as a Strong Buy with a price target of $180. From this, the stock returned a solid 25% to today&#39;s price, meaning that we are currently pretty much at my then defined price target.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6add3aff830a3ce3585db3c5f1d07607\" tg-width=\"297\" tg-height=\"413\"/></p><p>My Amazon Stock Coverage (seekingalpha.com)</p><p></p><p>To get a realistic valuation, we briefly analyze every business segment of AMZN, define suitable growth rates and EBIT margins for each segment and finally evaluate the whole company using a Bear- and Bull-Case Discounted Cash Flow Analysis. For more details on the different segments of Amazon and their current operations, please refer to the above-mentioned article.</p><h3 id=\"id_4282393402\">Starting Point</h3><p>Since Amazon isn&#39;t declaring the profitability of each of its business segments, we have to get a bit creative here to get a financial starting point for our following analysis. Amazon is declaring the profitability of the AWS (Cloud) segment separately from the rest, meaning we can at least use this as the first anchoring point. Since subscriptions, 1st and 3rd party are connected through offerings like free shipping with Amazon Prime, I tried to at least find a suitable profitability metric for the advertisement segment of Amazon. The two main competitors in the advertising space, Google (GOOG) (GOOGL) and Meta (META), are currently having EBIT margins in the range of 25% to 40%. For our starting point, I assumed an EBIT margin of 25% in Amazon&#39;s advertisement segment.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/720ac9939c6602941b7d6abc456bffac\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"439\"/></p><p>Data by YCharts</p><p></p><p>To then get close to the stated EBIT of each year, I then broke down the remaining EBIT on the remaining business sectors for each financial year. Because some segments overlap, it is exceedingly difficult to forecast exact measurements in this case. These measurements, however, simply represent the beginning of each segment.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a2de9bc4277966ab3fcd52b5a64c3762\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"57\"/></p><p>Assumptions Starting Point (own assumptions)</p><p></p><h2 id=\"id_1968806287\">eCommerce (1st and 3rd Party)</h2><p>The eCommerce market is expected to grow at a CAGR of ~9.5% over the various markets until 2029.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/22779c48593812f88244e1b6515bc0a3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"248\"/></p><p>eCommerce Growth per Region 2024 to 2029 (statista.com)</p><p></p><p>If we factor in the increasing priority of 3rd party at Amazon, we can assume the following growth rates for the eCommerce business segments.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b8b262603df9e0597e30ccbf9d9d345b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"388\"/></p><p>Amazon 1st vs. 3rd party sales (statista.com)</p><p></p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/58bed054f059a5a604d0670d32bb4740\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"400\"/></p><p>Amazon share of 3rd party sales of the years (statista.com)</p><p></p><h4 id=\"id_2376152078\">1st Party</h4><p>Bear: 3% p.a.</p><p>Bull: 5% p.a.</p><h4 id=\"id_230580202\">3rd Party</h4><p>Bear: 10% p.a.</p><p>Bull: 15% p.a.</p><p>These seem rather conservative, factoring in the latest growth rates in the 3rd party segment of 13.9% in 2022 and 19% in 2023.</p><p>The average net margin for the online retail is right around 7%.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ff011eb64a8b9c005b559b9d5e83f4f6\" tg-width=\"935\" tg-height=\"518\"/></p><p>Average net margin per business segment 2022 (statista.com)</p><p></p><p>I think given this metric, we can assume the following margin development for the 1st party from the above defined starting point.</p><table style=\"border-collapse:collapse;\"><tbody><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>EBIT Margin 1st</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2023</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2024</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2025</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2026</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2027</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2028</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2029</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2030</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2031</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Bear</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-6%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-3%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>0%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>4%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>5%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>5%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>5%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>5%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Bull</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-6%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>0%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2.5%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>5%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>7.5%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>7.5%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>7.5%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>7.5%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>7.5%</p></td></tr></tbody></table><p>Click to enlarge</p><p>Taking a look at the 3rd party margins, it becomes apparent why Amazon is increasingly focusing in this segment. The margins of the two main competitors, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EBAY\">eBay</a> (EBAY) and Etsy (ETSY), are currently sitting right around 10% to 38%. While the average of eBay over the last few years was more right around 25%.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4e2e98890cdc59162e269256a1c0eee9\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"439\"/></p><p>Data by YCharts</p><p></p><p>I think that it is reasonable to assume that Amazon will - eventually - achieve similar margins to eBay, which gives us the following assumptions:</p><table style=\"border-collapse:collapse;\"><tbody><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>EBIT Margin 3rd</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2023</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2024</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2025</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2026</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2027</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2028</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2029</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2030</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2031</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Bear</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>4.5%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>10%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>15%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>15%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>15%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>15%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>15%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>15%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>15%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Bull</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>4.5%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>15%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>25%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>25%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>25%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>25%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>25%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>25%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>25%</p></td></tr></tbody></table><p>Click to enlarge</p><h2 id=\"id_1701601226\">Physical Stores</h2><p>This segment is a slow growth and low margin business for Amazon, taking a look at recent growth rates of this segment and the EBIT-margin of one major competitor, Kroger (KR).</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9d0ed02fce4708cdc028cf6556766ca8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"30\"/></p><p>Amazon Physical Stores Growth(Amazon Quarterly Earnings Q1/23 to Q2/24)</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/526d47eced6c932749b47386d8626529\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"424\"/></p><p>Data by YCharts</p><p></p><p>Keeping this in mind, the following assumptions seem fitting:</p><p>Bear: 3% p.a.</p><p>Bull: 10% p.a.</p><p>Considering the &#34;cashierless&#34; technology of Amazon in this segment, the profitability should improve, giving us the following EBIT assumptions:</p><p>Bear: 5%</p><p>Bull: 10%</p><p>Without wasting more time with this rather unimportant segment, we jump right into the more promising segment subscriptions.</p><h2 id=\"id_3180827049\">Subscriptions</h2><p>The revenue growth rate in this segment is currently at around 11%, a slight decline from historical numbers of ~30%.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/73f19474d7d9242018f447abbce8dc2c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"32\"/></p><p>Amazon Subscriptions Growth (Amazon Quarterly Earnings Q1/23 to Q2/24)</p><p></p><table style=\"border-collapse:collapse;\"><tbody><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>[million USD]</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2018</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2019</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2020</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2021</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2022</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2023</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Revenue</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>14,168</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>19,210</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>25,207</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>31,768</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>35,218</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>40,761</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>YOY Growth</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>46%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>36%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>31%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>26%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>11%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>15%</p></td></tr></tbody></table><p>Click to enlarge</p><p>If we take a look at the whole streaming market, experts are currently projecting a CAGR of 18.7% for the whole market until 2031. Therefore, the following growth rates seem viable:</p><p>Bear: 7.5% p.a.</p><p>Bull: 15% p.a.</p><p>If we now take a look at the margins of the comparable business Netflix (NFLX), the following assumptions for profitability should be suitable:</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9051a799240375842ed05326bdd5ef72\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"424\"/></p><p>Data by YCharts</p><p></p><p>Bear: 15%</p><p>Bull: 25%.</p><h2 id=\"id_1823772008\">Advertising</h2><p>The advertising segment for me is one of the most exciting and compelling business segments of Amazon. If we take a look at the financial metrics, it becomes apparent why I think so.</p><p>The digital advertising spending worldwide is expected to grow at a CAGR of 15.5% until 2030.</p><p>This is already pretty impressive, if we however factor in that Amazon is currently - apart from TikTok - the only major competitor that is gaining market share in this very saturated market, the prospects look even better.</p><p></p><p><social-image src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/10/14/51058349-17289208648740807.png\"></social-image></p><p>Share of major ad-selling companies in digital advertising (statista.com)</p><p></p><p>Given this development, these growth metrics seem fitting for the advertising segment.</p><p>Bear: 10% p.a.</p><p>Bull: 20% p.a.</p><p>Like mentioned at our starting point, the EBIT-margins of Meta and Google are currently at around 25% to 40%, with Google being suppressed by their massive <em>Others</em> segment. More on this issue in my latest Google article. Amazon should be able to at least achieve similar margins or might even be able to surpass these, as their ads are way more targeted towards customers that are already willing to buy something. Since they are already on Amazon&#39;s side surfing for products to buy. Because of this, I came up with the following assumptions:</p><table style=\"border-collapse:collapse;\"><tbody><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>EBIT Margin Ads</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2023</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2024</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2025</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2026</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2027</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2028</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2029</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2030</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2031</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Bear</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>25%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>30%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>30%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>30%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>30%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>30%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>30%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>30%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>30%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Bull</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>25%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>30%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>35%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>40%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>45%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>45%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>45%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>45%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>45%</p></td></tr></tbody></table><p>Click to enlarge</p><h2 id=\"id_1675279717\">Cloud - AWS</h2><p>The global cloud, market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 21.2% from 2024 to 2030. As Amazon is currently maintaining its dominant market share, a growth rate right around the market growth rate looks promising.</p><p></p><p><social-image src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/10/14/51058349-17289214849984775.png\"></social-image></p><p>Cloud Infrastructure Market Share per Quarter (statista.com)</p><p></p><p>Bear: 15% p.a.</p><p>Bull: 20% p.a.</p><p>With our Bull Case, I only projected 20% annual growth because it appears unfeasible to rise beyond the market given the already massive market share and the elevated growth rate of 20% for 8 years.</p><p>For the profitability, I assumed the following metrics:</p><table style=\"border-collapse:collapse;\"><tbody><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>EBIT Margin AWS</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2023</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2024</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2025</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2026</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2027</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2028</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2029</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2030</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2031</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Bear</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>27%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>25%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>25%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>25%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>25%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>25%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>25%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>25%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>25%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Bull</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>27%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>35%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>35%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>35%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>35%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>35%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>35%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>35%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>35%</p></td></tr></tbody></table><p>Click to enlarge</p><h2 id=\"id_1677487832\">Discounted Cash Flow Analysis</h2><p>For our Discounted Cash Flow Analysis (&#34;DCF&#34;), we need a few additional assumptions.</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>Tax Rate:</strong> Here I averaged out the last four years and arrived at an average tax rate of 14.4%.</p></li><li><p><strong>Free Cash Flow Conversion:</strong> I found an appropriate EBIAT to Free Cash Flow Ratio after computing the EBIAT using the tax rate given above. Since 2021 and 2022 appear to be outliers in this case, I averaged out the EBIAT To FCF from 2017 through 2020 and 2023. This gave me a conversion rate of 101%. For an additional margin of safety, I used 85% in the following DCF.</p></li></ul><table style=\"border-collapse:collapse;\"><colgroup><col/></colgroup><tbody><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2017</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2018</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2019</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2020</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2021</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2022</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2023</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>EBIAT</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>3,277</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>11,104</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>12,069</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>20,197</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>21,744</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>10,729</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>31,545</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>EBIAT to FCF</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>154%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>75%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>114%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>54%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-142%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-208%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>117%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>FCF</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>8,307</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>19,400</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>25,800</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>31,020</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-9,069</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-11,569</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>36,800</p></td></tr></tbody></table><p>Click to enlarge</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>WACC:</strong> Here I used 9%, which is also higher than Amazon&#39;s current WACC meaning additional margin of safety.</p></li><li><p><strong>Perpetuity Growth Rate:</strong> Here I used 3%, which is pretty conservative for this company if you ask me.</p></li></ul><h3 id=\"id_4114785257\">Bear-Case</h3><p></p><p><social-image src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/10/13/51058349-1728820166087182.png\"></social-image></p><p>Main Assumptions Amazon Bear-Case (aboutamazon.com; seekingalpha.com; own assumptions)</p><p><social-image src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/10/13/51058349-17288192091753738.png\"></social-image></p><p>DCF Amazon Bear I (aboutamazon.com; seekingalpha.com; own assumptions)</p><p><social-image src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/10/13/51058349-17288192662678003.png\"></social-image></p><p>DCF Amazon Bear II (aboutamazon.com; seekingalpha.com; own assumptions)</p><p></p><p>With our Bear-Case DCF, we get a target share price of ~$150, indicating that the company could currently be overvalued by 20%. However, keep in mind that this factors in decelerating growth rates below-market rates and lower profitability compared to competitors.</p><h2 id=\"id_738275189\">Bull-Case</h2><p></p><p><social-image src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/10/13/51058349-17288201919055088.png\"></social-image></p><p>Main Assumptions Bull-Case (aboutamazon.com; seekingalpha.com; own assumptions)</p><p><social-image src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/10/13/51058349-1728819551935197.png\"></social-image></p><p>DCF Amazon Bull I (aboutamazon.com; seekingalpha.com; own assumptions)</p><p><social-image src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/10/13/51058349-17288196208292644.png\"></social-image></p><p>DCF Amazon Bull II (aboutamazon.com; seekingalpha.com; own assumptions)</p><p></p><p>The Bull-Case indicated a fair value share price of ~$318, which would translate in an undervaluation of a whopping 117%! On the other hand, they include profit margins that are larger than those of their main rivals and growth rates that surpass the market.</p><h2 id=\"id_550457842\">Conclusion</h2><p>If we take a look at the last year of our Bull-Case scenarios, we can clearly see on what segments Amazon should focus on in the upcoming years.</p><p></p><p><social-image src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/10/13/51058349-17288202303395493.png\"></social-image></p><p>2031 Bull-Case Prediction (DCF)</p><p></p><p>The biggest EBIT contributors are the Cloud, Advertising and 3rd Party segment. This is why in the upcoming earnings call (earnings to be released on October 25th), I will lay special emphasis on the relevant metrics in these few segments. I also would prefer if Amazon starts to stop &#34;experiments&#34; like the physical stores and focus on their core growth catalysts.</p><p>With our Bear- and Bull-Case analysis, we get a miss-pricing in the range of -20% to 117%. As always, the truth is probably laying somewhere in between these two scenarios, since some risks, like another lawsuit, can&#39;t really be considered in such an DCF-analysis.</p><p>I nevertheless think that the current valuation is still a very good entry point into Amazon, considering that the assumptions we made are very realistic and could very well exactly play out as expected. That is why I currently rate the Stock a Strong Buy, with a medium term price target of $220.</p><p>If you have read this far, please consider following me for more deep-dives! Thank you so much for reading!</p><p><strong><em>Editor&#39;s Note</em></strong><em>: This article was submitted as part of Seeking Alpha&#39;s</em> <em>Best Value Idea investment competition, which runs through October 14. With cash prizes, this competition -- open to all analysts -- is one you don&#39;t want to miss. If you are interested in becoming an analyst and taking part in the competition,</em> <em>click here</em> <em>to find out more and submit your article today!</em></p><p>Editor&#39;s Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Amazon: Deep Dive Shows Massive Upside</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAmazon: Deep Dive Shows Massive Upside\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-10-15 16:28 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4726684-amazon-deep-dive-shows-massive-upside><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>I previously rated Amazon.com, Inc. as a Strong Buy in December 2023 with a price target of $180, which the stock has now reached.Amazon operates in six major segments: 1st Party, 3rd Party, Physical,...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4726684-amazon-deep-dive-shows-massive-upside\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4561":"索罗斯持仓","IE00BKPKM429.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE0005OL40V9.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A6M\" (USD) INC","IE00BZ1G4Q59.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE US EQUITY SUSTAINABILITY LEADER \"A\"(USD) INC (A)","IE00BK4W5L77.USD":"HSBC GLOBAL FUNDS ICAV US EQUITY INDEX \"HC\" (USD) ACC","LU0061474705.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL DYNAMIC REAL RETURN \"AU\" (USD) ACC","IE00BK4W5M84.HKD":"HSBC GLOBAL FUNDS ICAV US EQUITY INDEX \"HC\" (HKD) ACC","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","IE00BJLML261.HKD":"HSBC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"HCH\" (HKD) ACC","IE00B1BXHZ80.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Appreciation A Acc USD","LU0061475181.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) AMERICAN \"AU\" (USD) ACC","IE00BMPRXQ63.HKD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN NEXT GENERATION CONNECTIVITY FUND \"A\" (HKDHDG) ACC","IE00BFSS8Q28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD-H","BK4592":"伊斯兰概念","IE0009356076.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION \"A2\" (USD) ACC","IE00BJTD4N35.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Long Short Equity A1  Acc SGD-H","IE00B7KXQ091.USD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc USD","AMZN":"亚马逊","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4507":"流媒体概念","IE00BFSS7M15.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD-H","IE0004086264.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4566":"资本集团","IE00B3S45H60.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Multicap Opportunities A Acc SGD-H","IE0004445239.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON US FORTY \"A2\" (USD) ACC","IE00B19Z9505.USD":"美盛-美国大盘成长股A Acc","IE00BJJMRX11.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD","IE00BN29S564.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A3\" (USD) INC","LU0072462426.USD":"贝莱德全球配置 A2","BK4524":"宅经济概念","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","LU0079474960.USD":"联博美国增长基金A","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","LU0082616367.USD":"摩根大通美国科技A（dist）","GB00BDT5M118.USD":"天利环球扩展Alpha基金A Acc","BK4538":"云计算","IE0034235303.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US RESEARCH ENHANCED CORE EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4579":"人工智能","LU0080751232.USD":"富达环球多元动力基金A","LU0061474960.USD":"天利环球焦点基金AU Acc","BK4588":"碎股","IE00BMPRXR70.SGD":"Neuberger Berman 5G Connectivity A Acc SGD-H","IE00BKDWB100.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5H\" (SGDHDG) ACC","BK4122":"互联网与直销零售","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","IE00B775H168.HKD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A5M\" (HKD) INC"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4726684-amazon-deep-dive-shows-massive-upside","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2475314672","content_text":"I previously rated Amazon.com, Inc. as a Strong Buy in December 2023 with a price target of $180, which the stock has now reached.Amazon operates in six major segments: 1st Party, 3rd Party, Physical, Subscriptions, Advertising, and Cloud, each contributing uniquely to its revenue.A Bear- and Bull-Case Discounted Cash Flow Analysis was used to evaluate Amazon, considering growth rates and EBIT-margins for each segment.Given this valuation method, the company could currently be undervalued by up to 117%.Julie ClopperIn this article, we are revisiting Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) from my latest article on AMZN in December 2023, where I rated the company as a Strong Buy with a price target of $180. From this, the stock returned a solid 25% to today's price, meaning that we are currently pretty much at my then defined price target.My Amazon Stock Coverage (seekingalpha.com)To get a realistic valuation, we briefly analyze every business segment of AMZN, define suitable growth rates and EBIT margins for each segment and finally evaluate the whole company using a Bear- and Bull-Case Discounted Cash Flow Analysis. For more details on the different segments of Amazon and their current operations, please refer to the above-mentioned article.Starting PointSince Amazon isn't declaring the profitability of each of its business segments, we have to get a bit creative here to get a financial starting point for our following analysis. Amazon is declaring the profitability of the AWS (Cloud) segment separately from the rest, meaning we can at least use this as the first anchoring point. Since subscriptions, 1st and 3rd party are connected through offerings like free shipping with Amazon Prime, I tried to at least find a suitable profitability metric for the advertisement segment of Amazon. The two main competitors in the advertising space, Google (GOOG) (GOOGL) and Meta (META), are currently having EBIT margins in the range of 25% to 40%. For our starting point, I assumed an EBIT margin of 25% in Amazon's advertisement segment.Data by YChartsTo then get close to the stated EBIT of each year, I then broke down the remaining EBIT on the remaining business sectors for each financial year. Because some segments overlap, it is exceedingly difficult to forecast exact measurements in this case. These measurements, however, simply represent the beginning of each segment.Assumptions Starting Point (own assumptions)eCommerce (1st and 3rd Party)The eCommerce market is expected to grow at a CAGR of ~9.5% over the various markets until 2029.eCommerce Growth per Region 2024 to 2029 (statista.com)If we factor in the increasing priority of 3rd party at Amazon, we can assume the following growth rates for the eCommerce business segments.Amazon 1st vs. 3rd party sales (statista.com)Amazon share of 3rd party sales of the years (statista.com)1st PartyBear: 3% p.a.Bull: 5% p.a.3rd PartyBear: 10% p.a.Bull: 15% p.a.These seem rather conservative, factoring in the latest growth rates in the 3rd party segment of 13.9% in 2022 and 19% in 2023.The average net margin for the online retail is right around 7%.Average net margin per business segment 2022 (statista.com)I think given this metric, we can assume the following margin development for the 1st party from the above defined starting point.EBIT Margin 1st202320242025202620272028202920302031Bear-6%-3%0%2%4%5%5%5%5%Bull-6%0%2.5%5%7.5%7.5%7.5%7.5%7.5%Click to enlargeTaking a look at the 3rd party margins, it becomes apparent why Amazon is increasingly focusing in this segment. The margins of the two main competitors, eBay (EBAY) and Etsy (ETSY), are currently sitting right around 10% to 38%. While the average of eBay over the last few years was more right around 25%.Data by YChartsI think that it is reasonable to assume that Amazon will - eventually - achieve similar margins to eBay, which gives us the following assumptions:EBIT Margin 3rd202320242025202620272028202920302031Bear4.5%10%15%15%15%15%15%15%15%Bull4.5%15%25%25%25%25%25%25%25%Click to enlargePhysical StoresThis segment is a slow growth and low margin business for Amazon, taking a look at recent growth rates of this segment and the EBIT-margin of one major competitor, Kroger (KR).Amazon Physical Stores Growth(Amazon Quarterly Earnings Q1/23 to Q2/24)Data by YChartsKeeping this in mind, the following assumptions seem fitting:Bear: 3% p.a.Bull: 10% p.a.Considering the \"cashierless\" technology of Amazon in this segment, the profitability should improve, giving us the following EBIT assumptions:Bear: 5%Bull: 10%Without wasting more time with this rather unimportant segment, we jump right into the more promising segment subscriptions.SubscriptionsThe revenue growth rate in this segment is currently at around 11%, a slight decline from historical numbers of ~30%.Amazon Subscriptions Growth (Amazon Quarterly Earnings Q1/23 to Q2/24)[million USD]201820192020202120222023Revenue14,16819,21025,20731,76835,21840,761YOY Growth46%36%31%26%11%15%Click to enlargeIf we take a look at the whole streaming market, experts are currently projecting a CAGR of 18.7% for the whole market until 2031. Therefore, the following growth rates seem viable:Bear: 7.5% p.a.Bull: 15% p.a.If we now take a look at the margins of the comparable business Netflix (NFLX), the following assumptions for profitability should be suitable:Data by YChartsBear: 15%Bull: 25%.AdvertisingThe advertising segment for me is one of the most exciting and compelling business segments of Amazon. If we take a look at the financial metrics, it becomes apparent why I think so.The digital advertising spending worldwide is expected to grow at a CAGR of 15.5% until 2030.This is already pretty impressive, if we however factor in that Amazon is currently - apart from TikTok - the only major competitor that is gaining market share in this very saturated market, the prospects look even better.Share of major ad-selling companies in digital advertising (statista.com)Given this development, these growth metrics seem fitting for the advertising segment.Bear: 10% p.a.Bull: 20% p.a.Like mentioned at our starting point, the EBIT-margins of Meta and Google are currently at around 25% to 40%, with Google being suppressed by their massive Others segment. More on this issue in my latest Google article. Amazon should be able to at least achieve similar margins or might even be able to surpass these, as their ads are way more targeted towards customers that are already willing to buy something. Since they are already on Amazon's side surfing for products to buy. Because of this, I came up with the following assumptions:EBIT Margin Ads202320242025202620272028202920302031Bear25%30%30%30%30%30%30%30%30%Bull25%30%35%40%45%45%45%45%45%Click to enlargeCloud - AWSThe global cloud, market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 21.2% from 2024 to 2030. As Amazon is currently maintaining its dominant market share, a growth rate right around the market growth rate looks promising.Cloud Infrastructure Market Share per Quarter (statista.com)Bear: 15% p.a.Bull: 20% p.a.With our Bull Case, I only projected 20% annual growth because it appears unfeasible to rise beyond the market given the already massive market share and the elevated growth rate of 20% for 8 years.For the profitability, I assumed the following metrics:EBIT Margin AWS202320242025202620272028202920302031Bear27%25%25%25%25%25%25%25%25%Bull27%35%35%35%35%35%35%35%35%Click to enlargeDiscounted Cash Flow AnalysisFor our Discounted Cash Flow Analysis (\"DCF\"), we need a few additional assumptions.Tax Rate: Here I averaged out the last four years and arrived at an average tax rate of 14.4%.Free Cash Flow Conversion: I found an appropriate EBIAT to Free Cash Flow Ratio after computing the EBIAT using the tax rate given above. Since 2021 and 2022 appear to be outliers in this case, I averaged out the EBIAT To FCF from 2017 through 2020 and 2023. This gave me a conversion rate of 101%. For an additional margin of safety, I used 85% in the following DCF.2017201820192020202120222023EBIAT3,27711,10412,06920,19721,74410,72931,545EBIAT to FCF154%75%114%54%-142%-208%117%FCF8,30719,40025,80031,020-9,069-11,56936,800Click to enlargeWACC: Here I used 9%, which is also higher than Amazon's current WACC meaning additional margin of safety.Perpetuity Growth Rate: Here I used 3%, which is pretty conservative for this company if you ask me.Bear-CaseMain Assumptions Amazon Bear-Case (aboutamazon.com; seekingalpha.com; own assumptions)DCF Amazon Bear I (aboutamazon.com; seekingalpha.com; own assumptions)DCF Amazon Bear II (aboutamazon.com; seekingalpha.com; own assumptions)With our Bear-Case DCF, we get a target share price of ~$150, indicating that the company could currently be overvalued by 20%. However, keep in mind that this factors in decelerating growth rates below-market rates and lower profitability compared to competitors.Bull-CaseMain Assumptions Bull-Case (aboutamazon.com; seekingalpha.com; own assumptions)DCF Amazon Bull I (aboutamazon.com; seekingalpha.com; own assumptions)DCF Amazon Bull II (aboutamazon.com; seekingalpha.com; own assumptions)The Bull-Case indicated a fair value share price of ~$318, which would translate in an undervaluation of a whopping 117%! On the other hand, they include profit margins that are larger than those of their main rivals and growth rates that surpass the market.ConclusionIf we take a look at the last year of our Bull-Case scenarios, we can clearly see on what segments Amazon should focus on in the upcoming years.2031 Bull-Case Prediction (DCF)The biggest EBIT contributors are the Cloud, Advertising and 3rd Party segment. This is why in the upcoming earnings call (earnings to be released on October 25th), I will lay special emphasis on the relevant metrics in these few segments. I also would prefer if Amazon starts to stop \"experiments\" like the physical stores and focus on their core growth catalysts.With our Bear- and Bull-Case analysis, we get a miss-pricing in the range of -20% to 117%. As always, the truth is probably laying somewhere in between these two scenarios, since some risks, like another lawsuit, can't really be considered in such an DCF-analysis.I nevertheless think that the current valuation is still a very good entry point into Amazon, considering that the assumptions we made are very realistic and could very well exactly play out as expected. That is why I currently rate the Stock a Strong Buy, with a medium term price target of $220.If you have read this far, please consider following me for more deep-dives! Thank you so much for reading!Editor's Note: This article was submitted as part of Seeking Alpha's Best Value Idea investment competition, which runs through October 14. With cash prizes, this competition -- open to all analysts -- is one you don't want to miss. If you are interested in becoming an analyst and taking part in the competition, click here to find out more and submit your article today!Editor's Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":364204014604456,"gmtCreate":1729927236344,"gmtModify":1729927240177,"author":{"id":"4192641781859792","authorId":"4192641781859792","name":"Roy ong and Motorless are gay boy","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4192641781859792","authorIdStr":"4192641781859792"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"SKY NG LENG HWEE&nbsp;","listText":"SKY NG LENG HWEE&nbsp;","text":"SKY NG LENG HWEE","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/364204014604456","repostId":"2475314672","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2475314672","pubTimestamp":1728980883,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2475314672?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-10-15 16:28","market":"fut","language":"en","title":"Amazon: Deep Dive Shows Massive Upside","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2475314672","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"I previously rated Amazon.com, Inc. as a Strong Buy in December 2023 with a price target of $180, which the stock has now reached.Amazon operates in six major segments: 1st Party, 3rd Party, Physical,","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li><p>I previously rated Amazon.com, Inc. as a Strong Buy in December 2023 with a price target of $180, which the stock has now reached.</p></li><li><p>Amazon operates in six major segments: 1st Party, 3rd Party, Physical, Subscriptions, Advertising, and Cloud, each contributing uniquely to its revenue.</p></li><li><p>A Bear- and Bull-Case Discounted Cash Flow Analysis was used to evaluate Amazon, considering growth rates and EBIT-margins for each segment.</p></li><li><p>Given this valuation method, the company could currently be undervalued by up to 117%.</p></li></ul><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3eb2610a8104c2fa1647f9a96f69c969\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\"/></p><p>Julie Clopper</p><p></p><p>In this article, we are revisiting <strong>Amazon.com, Inc.</strong> (NASDAQ:AMZN) from my latest article on AMZN in December 2023, where I rated the company as a Strong Buy with a price target of $180. From this, the stock returned a solid 25% to today&#39;s price, meaning that we are currently pretty much at my then defined price target.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6add3aff830a3ce3585db3c5f1d07607\" tg-width=\"297\" tg-height=\"413\"/></p><p>My Amazon Stock Coverage (seekingalpha.com)</p><p></p><p>To get a realistic valuation, we briefly analyze every business segment of AMZN, define suitable growth rates and EBIT margins for each segment and finally evaluate the whole company using a Bear- and Bull-Case Discounted Cash Flow Analysis. For more details on the different segments of Amazon and their current operations, please refer to the above-mentioned article.</p><h3 id=\"id_4282393402\">Starting Point</h3><p>Since Amazon isn&#39;t declaring the profitability of each of its business segments, we have to get a bit creative here to get a financial starting point for our following analysis. Amazon is declaring the profitability of the AWS (Cloud) segment separately from the rest, meaning we can at least use this as the first anchoring point. Since subscriptions, 1st and 3rd party are connected through offerings like free shipping with Amazon Prime, I tried to at least find a suitable profitability metric for the advertisement segment of Amazon. The two main competitors in the advertising space, Google (GOOG) (GOOGL) and Meta (META), are currently having EBIT margins in the range of 25% to 40%. For our starting point, I assumed an EBIT margin of 25% in Amazon&#39;s advertisement segment.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/720ac9939c6602941b7d6abc456bffac\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"439\"/></p><p>Data by YCharts</p><p></p><p>To then get close to the stated EBIT of each year, I then broke down the remaining EBIT on the remaining business sectors for each financial year. Because some segments overlap, it is exceedingly difficult to forecast exact measurements in this case. These measurements, however, simply represent the beginning of each segment.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a2de9bc4277966ab3fcd52b5a64c3762\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"57\"/></p><p>Assumptions Starting Point (own assumptions)</p><p></p><h2 id=\"id_1968806287\">eCommerce (1st and 3rd Party)</h2><p>The eCommerce market is expected to grow at a CAGR of ~9.5% over the various markets until 2029.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/22779c48593812f88244e1b6515bc0a3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"248\"/></p><p>eCommerce Growth per Region 2024 to 2029 (statista.com)</p><p></p><p>If we factor in the increasing priority of 3rd party at Amazon, we can assume the following growth rates for the eCommerce business segments.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b8b262603df9e0597e30ccbf9d9d345b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"388\"/></p><p>Amazon 1st vs. 3rd party sales (statista.com)</p><p></p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/58bed054f059a5a604d0670d32bb4740\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"400\"/></p><p>Amazon share of 3rd party sales of the years (statista.com)</p><p></p><h4 id=\"id_2376152078\">1st Party</h4><p>Bear: 3% p.a.</p><p>Bull: 5% p.a.</p><h4 id=\"id_230580202\">3rd Party</h4><p>Bear: 10% p.a.</p><p>Bull: 15% p.a.</p><p>These seem rather conservative, factoring in the latest growth rates in the 3rd party segment of 13.9% in 2022 and 19% in 2023.</p><p>The average net margin for the online retail is right around 7%.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ff011eb64a8b9c005b559b9d5e83f4f6\" tg-width=\"935\" tg-height=\"518\"/></p><p>Average net margin per business segment 2022 (statista.com)</p><p></p><p>I think given this metric, we can assume the following margin development for the 1st party from the above defined starting point.</p><table style=\"border-collapse:collapse;\"><tbody><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>EBIT Margin 1st</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2023</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2024</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2025</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2026</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2027</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2028</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2029</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2030</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2031</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Bear</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-6%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-3%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>0%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>4%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>5%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>5%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>5%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>5%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Bull</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-6%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>0%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2.5%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>5%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>7.5%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>7.5%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>7.5%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>7.5%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>7.5%</p></td></tr></tbody></table><p>Click to enlarge</p><p>Taking a look at the 3rd party margins, it becomes apparent why Amazon is increasingly focusing in this segment. The margins of the two main competitors, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EBAY\">eBay</a> (EBAY) and Etsy (ETSY), are currently sitting right around 10% to 38%. While the average of eBay over the last few years was more right around 25%.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4e2e98890cdc59162e269256a1c0eee9\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"439\"/></p><p>Data by YCharts</p><p></p><p>I think that it is reasonable to assume that Amazon will - eventually - achieve similar margins to eBay, which gives us the following assumptions:</p><table style=\"border-collapse:collapse;\"><tbody><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>EBIT Margin 3rd</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2023</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2024</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2025</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2026</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2027</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2028</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2029</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2030</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2031</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Bear</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>4.5%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>10%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>15%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>15%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>15%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>15%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>15%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>15%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>15%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Bull</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>4.5%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>15%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>25%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>25%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>25%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>25%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>25%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>25%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>25%</p></td></tr></tbody></table><p>Click to enlarge</p><h2 id=\"id_1701601226\">Physical Stores</h2><p>This segment is a slow growth and low margin business for Amazon, taking a look at recent growth rates of this segment and the EBIT-margin of one major competitor, Kroger (KR).</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9d0ed02fce4708cdc028cf6556766ca8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"30\"/></p><p>Amazon Physical Stores Growth(Amazon Quarterly Earnings Q1/23 to Q2/24)</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/526d47eced6c932749b47386d8626529\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"424\"/></p><p>Data by YCharts</p><p></p><p>Keeping this in mind, the following assumptions seem fitting:</p><p>Bear: 3% p.a.</p><p>Bull: 10% p.a.</p><p>Considering the &#34;cashierless&#34; technology of Amazon in this segment, the profitability should improve, giving us the following EBIT assumptions:</p><p>Bear: 5%</p><p>Bull: 10%</p><p>Without wasting more time with this rather unimportant segment, we jump right into the more promising segment subscriptions.</p><h2 id=\"id_3180827049\">Subscriptions</h2><p>The revenue growth rate in this segment is currently at around 11%, a slight decline from historical numbers of ~30%.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/73f19474d7d9242018f447abbce8dc2c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"32\"/></p><p>Amazon Subscriptions Growth (Amazon Quarterly Earnings Q1/23 to Q2/24)</p><p></p><table style=\"border-collapse:collapse;\"><tbody><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>[million USD]</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2018</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2019</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2020</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2021</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2022</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2023</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Revenue</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>14,168</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>19,210</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>25,207</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>31,768</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>35,218</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>40,761</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>YOY Growth</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>46%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>36%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>31%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>26%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>11%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>15%</p></td></tr></tbody></table><p>Click to enlarge</p><p>If we take a look at the whole streaming market, experts are currently projecting a CAGR of 18.7% for the whole market until 2031. Therefore, the following growth rates seem viable:</p><p>Bear: 7.5% p.a.</p><p>Bull: 15% p.a.</p><p>If we now take a look at the margins of the comparable business Netflix (NFLX), the following assumptions for profitability should be suitable:</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9051a799240375842ed05326bdd5ef72\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"424\"/></p><p>Data by YCharts</p><p></p><p>Bear: 15%</p><p>Bull: 25%.</p><h2 id=\"id_1823772008\">Advertising</h2><p>The advertising segment for me is one of the most exciting and compelling business segments of Amazon. If we take a look at the financial metrics, it becomes apparent why I think so.</p><p>The digital advertising spending worldwide is expected to grow at a CAGR of 15.5% until 2030.</p><p>This is already pretty impressive, if we however factor in that Amazon is currently - apart from TikTok - the only major competitor that is gaining market share in this very saturated market, the prospects look even better.</p><p></p><p><social-image src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/10/14/51058349-17289208648740807.png\"></social-image></p><p>Share of major ad-selling companies in digital advertising (statista.com)</p><p></p><p>Given this development, these growth metrics seem fitting for the advertising segment.</p><p>Bear: 10% p.a.</p><p>Bull: 20% p.a.</p><p>Like mentioned at our starting point, the EBIT-margins of Meta and Google are currently at around 25% to 40%, with Google being suppressed by their massive <em>Others</em> segment. More on this issue in my latest Google article. Amazon should be able to at least achieve similar margins or might even be able to surpass these, as their ads are way more targeted towards customers that are already willing to buy something. Since they are already on Amazon&#39;s side surfing for products to buy. Because of this, I came up with the following assumptions:</p><table style=\"border-collapse:collapse;\"><tbody><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>EBIT Margin Ads</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2023</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2024</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2025</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2026</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2027</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2028</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2029</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2030</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2031</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Bear</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>25%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>30%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>30%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>30%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>30%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>30%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>30%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>30%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>30%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Bull</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>25%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>30%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>35%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>40%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>45%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>45%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>45%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>45%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>45%</p></td></tr></tbody></table><p>Click to enlarge</p><h2 id=\"id_1675279717\">Cloud - AWS</h2><p>The global cloud, market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 21.2% from 2024 to 2030. As Amazon is currently maintaining its dominant market share, a growth rate right around the market growth rate looks promising.</p><p></p><p><social-image src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/10/14/51058349-17289214849984775.png\"></social-image></p><p>Cloud Infrastructure Market Share per Quarter (statista.com)</p><p></p><p>Bear: 15% p.a.</p><p>Bull: 20% p.a.</p><p>With our Bull Case, I only projected 20% annual growth because it appears unfeasible to rise beyond the market given the already massive market share and the elevated growth rate of 20% for 8 years.</p><p>For the profitability, I assumed the following metrics:</p><table style=\"border-collapse:collapse;\"><tbody><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>EBIT Margin AWS</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2023</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2024</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2025</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2026</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2027</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2028</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2029</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2030</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2031</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Bear</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>27%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>25%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>25%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>25%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>25%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>25%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>25%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>25%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>25%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Bull</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>27%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>35%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>35%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>35%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>35%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>35%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>35%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>35%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>35%</p></td></tr></tbody></table><p>Click to enlarge</p><h2 id=\"id_1677487832\">Discounted Cash Flow Analysis</h2><p>For our Discounted Cash Flow Analysis (&#34;DCF&#34;), we need a few additional assumptions.</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>Tax Rate:</strong> Here I averaged out the last four years and arrived at an average tax rate of 14.4%.</p></li><li><p><strong>Free Cash Flow Conversion:</strong> I found an appropriate EBIAT to Free Cash Flow Ratio after computing the EBIAT using the tax rate given above. Since 2021 and 2022 appear to be outliers in this case, I averaged out the EBIAT To FCF from 2017 through 2020 and 2023. This gave me a conversion rate of 101%. For an additional margin of safety, I used 85% in the following DCF.</p></li></ul><table style=\"border-collapse:collapse;\"><colgroup><col/></colgroup><tbody><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2017</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2018</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2019</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2020</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2021</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2022</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2023</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>EBIAT</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>3,277</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>11,104</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>12,069</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>20,197</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>21,744</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>10,729</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>31,545</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>EBIAT to FCF</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>154%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>75%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>114%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>54%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-142%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-208%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>117%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>FCF</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>8,307</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>19,400</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>25,800</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>31,020</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-9,069</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-11,569</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>36,800</p></td></tr></tbody></table><p>Click to enlarge</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>WACC:</strong> Here I used 9%, which is also higher than Amazon&#39;s current WACC meaning additional margin of safety.</p></li><li><p><strong>Perpetuity Growth Rate:</strong> Here I used 3%, which is pretty conservative for this company if you ask me.</p></li></ul><h3 id=\"id_4114785257\">Bear-Case</h3><p></p><p><social-image src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/10/13/51058349-1728820166087182.png\"></social-image></p><p>Main Assumptions Amazon Bear-Case (aboutamazon.com; seekingalpha.com; own assumptions)</p><p><social-image src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/10/13/51058349-17288192091753738.png\"></social-image></p><p>DCF Amazon Bear I (aboutamazon.com; seekingalpha.com; own assumptions)</p><p><social-image src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/10/13/51058349-17288192662678003.png\"></social-image></p><p>DCF Amazon Bear II (aboutamazon.com; seekingalpha.com; own assumptions)</p><p></p><p>With our Bear-Case DCF, we get a target share price of ~$150, indicating that the company could currently be overvalued by 20%. However, keep in mind that this factors in decelerating growth rates below-market rates and lower profitability compared to competitors.</p><h2 id=\"id_738275189\">Bull-Case</h2><p></p><p><social-image src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/10/13/51058349-17288201919055088.png\"></social-image></p><p>Main Assumptions Bull-Case (aboutamazon.com; seekingalpha.com; own assumptions)</p><p><social-image src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/10/13/51058349-1728819551935197.png\"></social-image></p><p>DCF Amazon Bull I (aboutamazon.com; seekingalpha.com; own assumptions)</p><p><social-image src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/10/13/51058349-17288196208292644.png\"></social-image></p><p>DCF Amazon Bull II (aboutamazon.com; seekingalpha.com; own assumptions)</p><p></p><p>The Bull-Case indicated a fair value share price of ~$318, which would translate in an undervaluation of a whopping 117%! On the other hand, they include profit margins that are larger than those of their main rivals and growth rates that surpass the market.</p><h2 id=\"id_550457842\">Conclusion</h2><p>If we take a look at the last year of our Bull-Case scenarios, we can clearly see on what segments Amazon should focus on in the upcoming years.</p><p></p><p><social-image src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/10/13/51058349-17288202303395493.png\"></social-image></p><p>2031 Bull-Case Prediction (DCF)</p><p></p><p>The biggest EBIT contributors are the Cloud, Advertising and 3rd Party segment. This is why in the upcoming earnings call (earnings to be released on October 25th), I will lay special emphasis on the relevant metrics in these few segments. I also would prefer if Amazon starts to stop &#34;experiments&#34; like the physical stores and focus on their core growth catalysts.</p><p>With our Bear- and Bull-Case analysis, we get a miss-pricing in the range of -20% to 117%. As always, the truth is probably laying somewhere in between these two scenarios, since some risks, like another lawsuit, can&#39;t really be considered in such an DCF-analysis.</p><p>I nevertheless think that the current valuation is still a very good entry point into Amazon, considering that the assumptions we made are very realistic and could very well exactly play out as expected. That is why I currently rate the Stock a Strong Buy, with a medium term price target of $220.</p><p>If you have read this far, please consider following me for more deep-dives! Thank you so much for reading!</p><p><strong><em>Editor&#39;s Note</em></strong><em>: This article was submitted as part of Seeking Alpha&#39;s</em> <em>Best Value Idea investment competition, which runs through October 14. With cash prizes, this competition -- open to all analysts -- is one you don&#39;t want to miss. If you are interested in becoming an analyst and taking part in the competition,</em> <em>click here</em> <em>to find out more and submit your article today!</em></p><p>Editor&#39;s Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Amazon: Deep Dive Shows Massive Upside</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAmazon: Deep Dive Shows Massive Upside\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-10-15 16:28 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4726684-amazon-deep-dive-shows-massive-upside><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>I previously rated Amazon.com, Inc. as a Strong Buy in December 2023 with a price target of $180, which the stock has now reached.Amazon operates in six major segments: 1st Party, 3rd Party, Physical,...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4726684-amazon-deep-dive-shows-massive-upside\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4561":"索罗斯持仓","IE00BKPKM429.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE0005OL40V9.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A6M\" (USD) INC","IE00BZ1G4Q59.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE US EQUITY SUSTAINABILITY LEADER \"A\"(USD) INC (A)","IE00BK4W5L77.USD":"HSBC GLOBAL FUNDS ICAV US EQUITY INDEX \"HC\" (USD) ACC","LU0061474705.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL DYNAMIC REAL RETURN \"AU\" (USD) ACC","IE00BK4W5M84.HKD":"HSBC GLOBAL FUNDS ICAV US EQUITY INDEX \"HC\" (HKD) ACC","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","IE00BJLML261.HKD":"HSBC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"HCH\" (HKD) ACC","IE00B1BXHZ80.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Appreciation A Acc USD","LU0061475181.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) AMERICAN \"AU\" (USD) ACC","IE00BMPRXQ63.HKD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN NEXT GENERATION CONNECTIVITY FUND \"A\" (HKDHDG) ACC","IE00BFSS8Q28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD-H","BK4592":"伊斯兰概念","IE0009356076.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION \"A2\" (USD) ACC","IE00BJTD4N35.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Long Short Equity A1  Acc SGD-H","IE00B7KXQ091.USD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc USD","AMZN":"亚马逊","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4507":"流媒体概念","IE00BFSS7M15.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD-H","IE0004086264.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4566":"资本集团","IE00B3S45H60.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Multicap Opportunities A Acc SGD-H","IE0004445239.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON US FORTY \"A2\" (USD) ACC","IE00B19Z9505.USD":"美盛-美国大盘成长股A Acc","IE00BJJMRX11.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD","IE00BN29S564.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A3\" (USD) INC","LU0072462426.USD":"贝莱德全球配置 A2","BK4524":"宅经济概念","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","LU0079474960.USD":"联博美国增长基金A","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","LU0082616367.USD":"摩根大通美国科技A（dist）","GB00BDT5M118.USD":"天利环球扩展Alpha基金A Acc","BK4538":"云计算","IE0034235303.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US RESEARCH ENHANCED CORE EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4579":"人工智能","LU0080751232.USD":"富达环球多元动力基金A","LU0061474960.USD":"天利环球焦点基金AU Acc","BK4588":"碎股","IE00BMPRXR70.SGD":"Neuberger Berman 5G Connectivity A Acc SGD-H","IE00BKDWB100.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5H\" (SGDHDG) ACC","BK4122":"互联网与直销零售","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","IE00B775H168.HKD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A5M\" (HKD) INC"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4726684-amazon-deep-dive-shows-massive-upside","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2475314672","content_text":"I previously rated Amazon.com, Inc. as a Strong Buy in December 2023 with a price target of $180, which the stock has now reached.Amazon operates in six major segments: 1st Party, 3rd Party, Physical, Subscriptions, Advertising, and Cloud, each contributing uniquely to its revenue.A Bear- and Bull-Case Discounted Cash Flow Analysis was used to evaluate Amazon, considering growth rates and EBIT-margins for each segment.Given this valuation method, the company could currently be undervalued by up to 117%.Julie ClopperIn this article, we are revisiting Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) from my latest article on AMZN in December 2023, where I rated the company as a Strong Buy with a price target of $180. From this, the stock returned a solid 25% to today's price, meaning that we are currently pretty much at my then defined price target.My Amazon Stock Coverage (seekingalpha.com)To get a realistic valuation, we briefly analyze every business segment of AMZN, define suitable growth rates and EBIT margins for each segment and finally evaluate the whole company using a Bear- and Bull-Case Discounted Cash Flow Analysis. For more details on the different segments of Amazon and their current operations, please refer to the above-mentioned article.Starting PointSince Amazon isn't declaring the profitability of each of its business segments, we have to get a bit creative here to get a financial starting point for our following analysis. Amazon is declaring the profitability of the AWS (Cloud) segment separately from the rest, meaning we can at least use this as the first anchoring point. Since subscriptions, 1st and 3rd party are connected through offerings like free shipping with Amazon Prime, I tried to at least find a suitable profitability metric for the advertisement segment of Amazon. The two main competitors in the advertising space, Google (GOOG) (GOOGL) and Meta (META), are currently having EBIT margins in the range of 25% to 40%. For our starting point, I assumed an EBIT margin of 25% in Amazon's advertisement segment.Data by YChartsTo then get close to the stated EBIT of each year, I then broke down the remaining EBIT on the remaining business sectors for each financial year. Because some segments overlap, it is exceedingly difficult to forecast exact measurements in this case. These measurements, however, simply represent the beginning of each segment.Assumptions Starting Point (own assumptions)eCommerce (1st and 3rd Party)The eCommerce market is expected to grow at a CAGR of ~9.5% over the various markets until 2029.eCommerce Growth per Region 2024 to 2029 (statista.com)If we factor in the increasing priority of 3rd party at Amazon, we can assume the following growth rates for the eCommerce business segments.Amazon 1st vs. 3rd party sales (statista.com)Amazon share of 3rd party sales of the years (statista.com)1st PartyBear: 3% p.a.Bull: 5% p.a.3rd PartyBear: 10% p.a.Bull: 15% p.a.These seem rather conservative, factoring in the latest growth rates in the 3rd party segment of 13.9% in 2022 and 19% in 2023.The average net margin for the online retail is right around 7%.Average net margin per business segment 2022 (statista.com)I think given this metric, we can assume the following margin development for the 1st party from the above defined starting point.EBIT Margin 1st202320242025202620272028202920302031Bear-6%-3%0%2%4%5%5%5%5%Bull-6%0%2.5%5%7.5%7.5%7.5%7.5%7.5%Click to enlargeTaking a look at the 3rd party margins, it becomes apparent why Amazon is increasingly focusing in this segment. The margins of the two main competitors, eBay (EBAY) and Etsy (ETSY), are currently sitting right around 10% to 38%. While the average of eBay over the last few years was more right around 25%.Data by YChartsI think that it is reasonable to assume that Amazon will - eventually - achieve similar margins to eBay, which gives us the following assumptions:EBIT Margin 3rd202320242025202620272028202920302031Bear4.5%10%15%15%15%15%15%15%15%Bull4.5%15%25%25%25%25%25%25%25%Click to enlargePhysical StoresThis segment is a slow growth and low margin business for Amazon, taking a look at recent growth rates of this segment and the EBIT-margin of one major competitor, Kroger (KR).Amazon Physical Stores Growth(Amazon Quarterly Earnings Q1/23 to Q2/24)Data by YChartsKeeping this in mind, the following assumptions seem fitting:Bear: 3% p.a.Bull: 10% p.a.Considering the \"cashierless\" technology of Amazon in this segment, the profitability should improve, giving us the following EBIT assumptions:Bear: 5%Bull: 10%Without wasting more time with this rather unimportant segment, we jump right into the more promising segment subscriptions.SubscriptionsThe revenue growth rate in this segment is currently at around 11%, a slight decline from historical numbers of ~30%.Amazon Subscriptions Growth (Amazon Quarterly Earnings Q1/23 to Q2/24)[million USD]201820192020202120222023Revenue14,16819,21025,20731,76835,21840,761YOY Growth46%36%31%26%11%15%Click to enlargeIf we take a look at the whole streaming market, experts are currently projecting a CAGR of 18.7% for the whole market until 2031. Therefore, the following growth rates seem viable:Bear: 7.5% p.a.Bull: 15% p.a.If we now take a look at the margins of the comparable business Netflix (NFLX), the following assumptions for profitability should be suitable:Data by YChartsBear: 15%Bull: 25%.AdvertisingThe advertising segment for me is one of the most exciting and compelling business segments of Amazon. If we take a look at the financial metrics, it becomes apparent why I think so.The digital advertising spending worldwide is expected to grow at a CAGR of 15.5% until 2030.This is already pretty impressive, if we however factor in that Amazon is currently - apart from TikTok - the only major competitor that is gaining market share in this very saturated market, the prospects look even better.Share of major ad-selling companies in digital advertising (statista.com)Given this development, these growth metrics seem fitting for the advertising segment.Bear: 10% p.a.Bull: 20% p.a.Like mentioned at our starting point, the EBIT-margins of Meta and Google are currently at around 25% to 40%, with Google being suppressed by their massive Others segment. More on this issue in my latest Google article. Amazon should be able to at least achieve similar margins or might even be able to surpass these, as their ads are way more targeted towards customers that are already willing to buy something. Since they are already on Amazon's side surfing for products to buy. Because of this, I came up with the following assumptions:EBIT Margin Ads202320242025202620272028202920302031Bear25%30%30%30%30%30%30%30%30%Bull25%30%35%40%45%45%45%45%45%Click to enlargeCloud - AWSThe global cloud, market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 21.2% from 2024 to 2030. As Amazon is currently maintaining its dominant market share, a growth rate right around the market growth rate looks promising.Cloud Infrastructure Market Share per Quarter (statista.com)Bear: 15% p.a.Bull: 20% p.a.With our Bull Case, I only projected 20% annual growth because it appears unfeasible to rise beyond the market given the already massive market share and the elevated growth rate of 20% for 8 years.For the profitability, I assumed the following metrics:EBIT Margin AWS202320242025202620272028202920302031Bear27%25%25%25%25%25%25%25%25%Bull27%35%35%35%35%35%35%35%35%Click to enlargeDiscounted Cash Flow AnalysisFor our Discounted Cash Flow Analysis (\"DCF\"), we need a few additional assumptions.Tax Rate: Here I averaged out the last four years and arrived at an average tax rate of 14.4%.Free Cash Flow Conversion: I found an appropriate EBIAT to Free Cash Flow Ratio after computing the EBIAT using the tax rate given above. Since 2021 and 2022 appear to be outliers in this case, I averaged out the EBIAT To FCF from 2017 through 2020 and 2023. This gave me a conversion rate of 101%. For an additional margin of safety, I used 85% in the following DCF.2017201820192020202120222023EBIAT3,27711,10412,06920,19721,74410,72931,545EBIAT to FCF154%75%114%54%-142%-208%117%FCF8,30719,40025,80031,020-9,069-11,56936,800Click to enlargeWACC: Here I used 9%, which is also higher than Amazon's current WACC meaning additional margin of safety.Perpetuity Growth Rate: Here I used 3%, which is pretty conservative for this company if you ask me.Bear-CaseMain Assumptions Amazon Bear-Case (aboutamazon.com; seekingalpha.com; own assumptions)DCF Amazon Bear I (aboutamazon.com; seekingalpha.com; own assumptions)DCF Amazon Bear II (aboutamazon.com; seekingalpha.com; own assumptions)With our Bear-Case DCF, we get a target share price of ~$150, indicating that the company could currently be overvalued by 20%. However, keep in mind that this factors in decelerating growth rates below-market rates and lower profitability compared to competitors.Bull-CaseMain Assumptions Bull-Case (aboutamazon.com; seekingalpha.com; own assumptions)DCF Amazon Bull I (aboutamazon.com; seekingalpha.com; own assumptions)DCF Amazon Bull II (aboutamazon.com; seekingalpha.com; own assumptions)The Bull-Case indicated a fair value share price of ~$318, which would translate in an undervaluation of a whopping 117%! On the other hand, they include profit margins that are larger than those of their main rivals and growth rates that surpass the market.ConclusionIf we take a look at the last year of our Bull-Case scenarios, we can clearly see on what segments Amazon should focus on in the upcoming years.2031 Bull-Case Prediction (DCF)The biggest EBIT contributors are the Cloud, Advertising and 3rd Party segment. This is why in the upcoming earnings call (earnings to be released on October 25th), I will lay special emphasis on the relevant metrics in these few segments. I also would prefer if Amazon starts to stop \"experiments\" like the physical stores and focus on their core growth catalysts.With our Bear- and Bull-Case analysis, we get a miss-pricing in the range of -20% to 117%. As always, the truth is probably laying somewhere in between these two scenarios, since some risks, like another lawsuit, can't really be considered in such an DCF-analysis.I nevertheless think that the current valuation is still a very good entry point into Amazon, considering that the assumptions we made are very realistic and could very well exactly play out as expected. That is why I currently rate the Stock a Strong Buy, with a medium term price target of $220.If you have read this far, please consider following me for more deep-dives! Thank you so much for reading!Editor's Note: This article was submitted as part of Seeking Alpha's Best Value Idea investment competition, which runs through October 14. With cash prizes, this competition -- open to all analysts -- is one you don't want to miss. If you are interested in becoming an analyst and taking part in the competition, click here to find out more and submit your article today!Editor's Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. 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infos","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9056201606","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":363393474211936,"gmtCreate":1729745651211,"gmtModify":1729745654998,"author":{"id":"4192641781859792","authorId":"4192641781859792","name":"Roy ong and Motorless are gay boy","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4192641781859792","authorIdStr":"4192641781859792"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Roy NG LENG HWEE&nbsp;","listText":"Roy NG LENG HWEE&nbsp;","text":"Roy NG LENG HWEE","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/363393474211936","repostId":"2477656484","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2477656484","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Benzinga","id":"1052270027","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa"},"pubTimestamp":1729714762,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2477656484?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-10-24 04:19","market":"us","language":"en","title":"QuantumScape Q3 2024 GAAP EPS $(0.23), Inline","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2477656484","media":"Benzinga","summary":"QuantumScape (NYSE:QS) reported quarterly losses of $(0.23) per share which met the analyst consensus estimate.","content":"<html><body><p>QuantumScape (NYSE:QS) reported quarterly losses of $(0.23) per share which met the analyst consensus estimate.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>QuantumScape Q3 2024 GAAP EPS $(0.23), Inline</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 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class=\"title\">\nQuantumScape Q3 2024 GAAP EPS $(0.23), Inline\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-10-24 04:19</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><body><p>QuantumScape (NYSE:QS) reported quarterly losses of $(0.23) per share which met the analyst consensus estimate.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"QS":"Quantumscape Corp."},"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/24/10/41501131/quantumscape-q3-2024-gaap-eps-0-23-inline","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2477656484","content_text":"QuantumScape (NYSE:QS) reported quarterly losses of $(0.23) per share which met the analyst consensus estimate.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":14,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":363393700909184,"gmtCreate":1729745616531,"gmtModify":1729745619921,"author":{"id":"4192641781859792","authorId":"4192641781859792","name":"Roy ong and Motorless are gay boy","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4192641781859792","authorIdStr":"4192641781859792"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great article, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great article, would you like to share it?","text":"Great article, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/363393700909184","repostId":"2477656484","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2477656484","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Benzinga","id":"1052270027","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa"},"pubTimestamp":1729714762,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2477656484?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-10-24 04:19","market":"us","language":"en","title":"QuantumScape Q3 2024 GAAP EPS $(0.23), Inline","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2477656484","media":"Benzinga","summary":"QuantumScape (NYSE:QS) reported quarterly losses of $(0.23) per share which met the analyst consensus estimate.","content":"<html><body><p>QuantumScape (NYSE:QS) reported quarterly losses of $(0.23) per share which met the analyst consensus estimate.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>QuantumScape Q3 2024 GAAP EPS $(0.23), Inline</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 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solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nQuantumScape Q3 2024 GAAP EPS $(0.23), Inline\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-10-24 04:19</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><body><p>QuantumScape (NYSE:QS) reported quarterly losses of $(0.23) per share which met the analyst consensus estimate.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"QS":"Quantumscape Corp."},"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/24/10/41501131/quantumscape-q3-2024-gaap-eps-0-23-inline","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2477656484","content_text":"QuantumScape (NYSE:QS) reported quarterly losses of $(0.23) 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HWEE","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/362627069857848","repostId":"2477404220","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":81,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":362627023081672,"gmtCreate":1729567818100,"gmtModify":1729567820355,"author":{"id":"4192641781859792","authorId":"4192641781859792","name":"Roy ong and Motorless are gay boy","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4192641781859792","authorIdStr":"4192641781859792"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Roy NG LENG HWEE","listText":"Roy NG LENG HWEE","text":"Roy NG LENG HWEE","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/362627023081672","repostId":"2477404220","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2477404220","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1729473082,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2477404220?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-10-21 09:11","market":"nz","language":"en","title":"Tim Cook on Why Apple's Huge Bets Will Pay Off","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2477404220","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"By Ben Cohen | Photography by Campbell Addy for WSJ. Magazine. He reads email, reviews overnight sales reports and studies countries where numbers are changing to keep his finger on the pulse of the business. Then he puts the phone away. It's time to get his own pulse up. During his workout, which he records on his Apple Watch, classic rock pounds through his AirPods. At the office, he switches to his MacBook Air, MacBook Pro and iMac. On the road, he travels with his iPad Pro. \"Every day,\" he says, \"every product.\". \"We're perfectly fine with not being first,\" he says. \"As it turns out, it takes a while to get it really great. It takes a lot of iteration. It takes worrying about every detail. Sometimes, it takes a little longer to do that. We would rather come out with that kind of product and that kind of contribution to people versus running to get something out first. If we can do both, that's fantastic. But if we can only do one, there's no doubt around here. If you talk to 100 pe","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>THE FIRST THING Tim Cook does when he wakes up is check his iPhone. It&#39;s sitting atop his nightstand in silent mode when the chief executive officer of Apple, the most valuable company in the history of the world, reaches for his device and starts triaging his inbox.</p><p>He reads email, reviews overnight sales reports and studies countries where numbers are changing to keep his finger on the pulse of the business. Then he puts the phone away. It&#39;s time to get his own pulse up. During his workout, which he records on his Apple Watch, classic rock pounds through his AirPods. At the office, he switches to his MacBook Air, MacBook Pro and iMac. On the road, he travels with his iPad Pro. &#34;Every day,&#34; he says, &#34;every product.&#34;</p><p>But for the past year, Cook has been using two other products that wouldn&#39;t exist if not for two of the most consequential bets that a company worth trillions of dollars has ever made.</p><p>They are the latest technological innovations to emerge from a patch of land in Cupertino, California, that, over the past half-century, have reshaped the world and come to rule our lives. The iPhone alone generates more money per year than America&#39;s biggest bank and still accounts for only half of Apple&#39;s revenue, with the rest coming from desktops, laptops, tablets, headphones, watches, streaming movies, TV and music and all the other hardware, software, products and services that Tim Cook uses from the second he wakes until the moment he falls asleep.</p><p>There is one idea that encapsulates the approach to innovation that makes all of it possible -- and it&#39;s maybe the closest thing to a grand unified theory of Apple. It&#39;s a philosophy of just four words that describe Apple&#39;s past, present and definitely its future. Four words that help explain why this was the year the company plowed into spatial computing and artificial intelligence. During one of those epochal years when it feels like everything is about to change again, I heard them over and over, in conversation with Apple executives and Cook himself: Not first, but best.</p><p>Cook elaborated on those four words in a lengthy interview this summer at Caffè Macs on Apple&#39;s campus, where the steady and typically reserved CEO explained that his company&#39;s top priority is delivering great products that enrich people&#39;s lives.</p><p>&#34;We&#39;re perfectly fine with not being first,&#34; he says. &#34;As it turns out, it takes a while to get it really great. It takes a lot of iteration. It takes worrying about every detail. Sometimes, it takes a little longer to do that. We would rather come out with that kind of product and that kind of contribution to people versus running to get something out first. If we can do both, that&#39;s fantastic. But if we can only do one, there&#39;s no doubt around here. If you talk to 100 people, 100 of them would tell you: It&#39;s about being the best.&#34;</p><p>COOK HAS BEEN THE CEO of Apple longer than he&#39;s been anything else in his career. But 13 years since he found himself in the unenviable position of following Steve Jobs, he still gets nervous on big days, like the day Wall Street declared was bigger than any since the birth of the iPhone and the biggest day in Cook&#39;s time running the company.</p><p>As visitors descended on a glistening Apple Park in June for the annual Worldwide Developers Conference, the weather felt like it had been designed by Apple. The first car I spotted on campus, a red Tesla, had the license plate VISNPRO. Only a few months earlier, Apple had unveiled a sleek headset for spatial computing, the Vision Pro, a gadget that makes you feel like you&#39;ve been transported to the future. Now the company was introducing something no less ambitious.</p><p>Cook bounded onto the stage to a roar. He may not match Jobs&#39;s showmanship, but he&#39;s a rock star at this event. After greeting the crowd, Cook took his seat in a corner of the front row as a parade of executives showed off Apple Intelligence, the feature that everyone was there to see. It can summarize your notifications. It can proofread an email you&#39;ve written, or rewrite it to make it friendly, professional or concise. It can also generate custom emojis. And it had the clever effect of rebranding a tantalizing but completely terrifying notion as something more familiar and comforting, not artificial intelligence but Apple Intelligence. Cook likes to say that it&#39;s AI for the rest of us.</p><p>&#34;We weren&#39;t the first to do intelligence,&#34; he says. &#34;But we&#39;ve done it in a way that we think is the best for the customer.&#34;</p><p>Including one customer who happens to run the company. Until recently, Cook read long emails. Now he relies on Apple Intelligence summaries. &#34;If I can save time here and there,&#34; he says, &#34;it adds up to something significant across a day, a week, a month.&#34; Even before Apple Intelligence was released, it changed his productivity and daily habits. &#34;It&#39;s changed my life,&#34; he says. &#34;It really has.&#34;</p><p>But how much will it change his business?</p><p>Every second of the day, Apple sells another seven iPhones. In the time it took you to read this sentence, it just sold a few more. And now a few more. Which is surprising, because the iPhone has become so powerful and durable that you don&#39;t have to buy a new one every year. In fact, I&#39;m writing this sentence on an iPhone 11 bought five years ago. (&#34;It&#39;s time to upgrade,&#34; Cook tells me.) The computers we hold in our hands have gotten better, but incrementally, not so obviously that you have to buy the next one -- until now. Or at least that&#39;s the pitch attached to Apple Intelligence. If you have an iPhone like mine, anything older than an iPhone 15 Pro or Pro Max, the only way to add the software that has changed Tim Cook&#39;s life is to buy a newer model.</p><p>I asked Cook if he believes Apple Intelligence will make the experience of using his company&#39;s products fundamentally different, slightly different -- or not at all different.</p><p>&#34;Profoundly different,&#34; he said.</p><p>He puts Apple Intelligence in the same pantheon of innovative breakthroughs as the iPod&#39;s click wheel and the iPhone&#39;s touch interface. &#34;I think we&#39;ll look back and it will be one of these air pockets that happened to get you on a different technology curve,&#34; he says.</p><p>To put it another way, he believes what&#39;s happening to him will happen for everyone. For some, it will happen very soon. For others, it will happen later. &#34;But it will happen,&#34; he says. &#34;It will happen for all of us.&#34;</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/aaf04289deae94d5c3ef257eba90082e\" tg-width=\"1327\" tg-height=\"900\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/434af209bd0547a6a9d8e957f40bded9\" tg-width=\"1327\" tg-height=\"900\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e778f5d250ae0e54c06e3a73c5ffbad4\" tg-width=\"1328\" tg-height=\"900\"/></p><p>The day after Cook officially ushered in this new era, Apple gained more than $200 billion in value. It was the single most lucrative day in the history of the company.</p><p>I LOVE the emerging world,&#34; Tim Cook says. &#34;I love the idea for a bunch of people to feel like tomorrow is better than today -- the dream, the belief that you&#39;re going to stand on your parents&#39; shoulders.&#34;</p><p>Tomorrow is better than today. To understand Cook, you have to understand that he truly believes this. It&#39;s a deeply American idea, he says, though it&#39;s no longer exclusively American. He finds it in every corner of the world. &#34;There may not be a more important philosophy in life,&#34; he says. &#34;I think it&#39;s something we all need to hold onto -- and not only hold onto it, but feel accountable for passing it on.&#34;</p><p>He would know. Before the 45th president of the United States called him Tim Apple, Cook grew up in the small town of Robertsdale, Alabama. Neither of his parents went to college. As a child, he set his mind to attending Auburn University, where he studied industrial engineering, watched football and learned to ask lots of questions.</p><p>&#34;I&#39;ve gone from believing that if you ask questions, it meant you&#39;re fundamentally not smart, to believing that the more you ask, the more curious you are, the smarter you get,&#34; he says.</p><p>He worked at <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IBM\">IBM</a> and Compaq and developed such a reputation for supply-chain and logistics expertise that in early 1998, Apple called. The rational thing to do was hang up. The year before, the company had lost more than a billion dollars. But he listened to his intuition and took the meeting with Jobs. Within minutes, he knew he wanted to work at Apple.</p><p>When he moved to California, Cook lived in a tiny apartment, drove a Honda Accord but preferred his bicycle and subsisted on chicken, rice and steamed vegetables. At Apple, he reinvented the company&#39;s supply chain, modernizing logistics and transforming a mediocre operations team into a machine. He was promoted to chief operating officer in 2005 and elevated to chief executive officer in August 2011. That October, on the day of his first major event as CEO, Cook went to Jobs&#39;s home to say goodbye. One of Jobs&#39;s last pieces of advice for his successor was to not ask what he would do -- and just do what was right. He died the next day.</p><p>It was only natural to wonder if Apple could survive without Jobs. But under Cook, the company matured into something more predictable, maybe a bit less magical, but a whole lot more valuable.</p><p>On the day I met him in Caffè Macs, nothing about the executive&#39;s appearance suggested that he was someone who could utter a single word and seriously dent the global economy. One of the most powerful men on the planet wore a plain polo shirt, casual jeans, and sneakers and glasses made by Nike.</p><p>Even today, Cook, who turns 64 in November, has maintained his privacy to the point that the public doesn&#39;t know much about him. That his favorite escape is hiking the national parks. That he drinks Diet Mountain Dew, though not as much as he once did, because Apple doesn&#39;t stock his favorite soda. That he follows Duke basketball and Auburn football so closely that this summer he was monitoring the Denver Broncos&#39; starting quarterback competition between two Auburn alumni. This is how he likes it. A decade ago, when he came out as the first gay CEO of a major company, Cook said that he prefers to keep the attention on Apple products and their impact on customers&#39; lives.</p><p>With that in mind, I asked if he ever thinks about what his childhood in Alabama would have been like if it had been filled with those products. </p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">“Yeah, I do,” he says quietly. “This was pre-internet, and just the idea that you can find people like you would have been an extraordinary idea at that point in time.” </p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">It would have opened up an emerging world with answers to his many questions—a portal beyond a small town where one boy with the belief that tomorrow was better than today was already beginning to think differently.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"><strong>ONE OF THE PECULIAR THINGS</strong> about Apple is how many of its most successful products once appeared to be failures. Maybe you’ve forgotten this, now that it seems crazy anyone thought there wouldn’t be a market for them. Apple’s executives haven’t. They remember when the company was ridiculed for reasons that sound totally ridiculous. The iPhone didn’t have a physical keyboard. The iPod cost $399 when CD players were $39. AirPods looked funny and would fall out of your ears. Who would wear an Apple Watch or use Apple Pay or watch an Apple TV+ show about an American football coach hired by a British soccer team? By now, they’re used to it. “It’s predictable in some ways,” Cook says. </p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Some devices that are now like bodily appendages were underwhelming at first and improved with time. Others were simply ahead of their time. Elsewhere in Silicon Valley, patience has the approval rating of carrier pigeons. But for every product that began slowly, Cook says he was confident it would eventually catch on. “It’s not that people are wrong and we’re right,” he says. “We have enough faith that if we love the product, there will be enough other people out there that love it too.” </p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/576e57267ffa105a00c2ed633e3e6a2b\" alt=\"One of Steve Jobs’s last pieces of advice for Cook was to not ask what he would do—and just do what was right. Photo: Paul Sakuma/AP Photo\" title=\"One of Steve Jobs’s last pieces of advice for Cook was to not ask what he would do—and just do what was right. Photo: Paul Sakuma/AP Photo\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"476\"/><span>One of Steve Jobs’s last pieces of advice for Cook was to not ask what he would do—and just do what was right. Photo: Paul Sakuma/AP Photo</span></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">It’s hard for a company that can do so many things to decide what it actually wants to do—and what it can do better than anyone. “The key for us is focus,” Cook says, “saying no to really, really good ideas so you can make room for the great ones.” But the only thing harder than deciding what to do is doing it. “We’d argue the innovation isn’t having that idea,” says Craig Federighi, Apple’s senior vice president of software engineering. “The innovation was being able to craft the right product that you could deliver in a great way at the time.” </p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">In other words, innovation is everything that happens after the idea. And at Apple, it happens in a carefully protected area called the Design Studio. When I’m given a tour, opaque white barriers prevent me from peeking at any secret projects in the works. The company’s designers joke that 99 percent of them will never see the light of day. This year, for example, Apple killed plans to build an electric car after spending more than a decade and billions of dollars pursuing one, a costly reminder that Apple products are more likely to fail internally than externally. </p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Of all the products that made it beyond the area I could not see, the most ambitious to pull off was Vision Pro. There are lots of reasons why a supercomputer disguised as ski goggles is something of a technological miracle. When I spoke with Apple’s leading design minds, they weren’t allowed to tell me most of them. Apple says there are more than 5,000 patents baked into the Vision Pro, which is another way of saying 5,000 limitations that had never been overcome before. To make this sort of product, says Alan Dye, vice president of human interface design, “it takes not only that big idea that might be innovative, but really the hundreds or thousands of innovative thoughts that come after it.” </p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Maybe the most surprising aspect of Vision Pro is how it makes you <em>feel.</em> You might not believe that strapping yourself into a piece of technology could be emotionally overwhelming. But when you experience an ultra-high-resolution spatial photo of your daughter at age 3, or watch an immersive video of a grandparent who’s since died, it’s no longer a headset. It’s a time machine. You put on this device from the future and find yourself reliving the past. You come back to the present and have tears in your eyes. </p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">“That really is why we did this product,” says Richard Howarth, vice president of industrial design. “It’s got the ability to do things that the other products can’t do.” </p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">There is no killer use case for the Vision Pro yet, so I asked Cook how he’s using it. At work, of course, when he wants several windows open for multitasking. But especially at home. “I’ve always viewed having to sit in a certain place in your living room as really constrained,” he says. He prefers to lie flat on the couch, project <em>Ted Lasso</em> and <em>The Morning Show</em> on the ceiling and stare into the Vision Pro. “It’s a lot more pleasant way to watch something than to sit like a statue in front of a TV,” he insists.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/32bf1e3548971573d967ec48ca70fe7d\" alt=\"‘We have enough faith that if we love the product, there will be enough other people out there that love it too,’ says Cook.\" title=\"‘We have enough faith that if we love the product, there will be enough other people out there that love it too,’ says Cook.\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"1518\"/><span>‘We have enough faith that if we love the product, there will be enough other people out there that love it too,’ says Cook.</span></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Jon M. Chu agrees. The director of <em>Wicked</em> grew up in Silicon Valley and bought a Vision Pro the first day it went on sale. From the second he put it on, he knew it would have a dramatic effect on his creative process. “Everyone here laughs at me because I’m so obsessed with it,” he says. Jobs once famously described computers as a bicycle for the mind. “I feel like Vision Pro is a rocket ship for the mind,” Chu says. “You don’t know where you’re headed, but you get to go someplace and figure it out with everybody.” </p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">But that rocket ship is an expensive ride. When the Vision Pro came out this year, mixed reality crashed into the reality that most consumers aren’t ready to shell out $3,500 for a cool toy. </p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">“Over time, everything gets better, and it too will have its course of getting better and better,” Cook says. “I think it’s just arguably a success today from an ecosystem-being-built-out point of view.” </p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">And from a sales point of view?</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">“I’d always like to sell more of everything, because ultimately, we want our products to be in as many people’s hands as possible,” he says. “And so obviously I’d like to sell more.” But there’s a limit to the number of faces this version of the Vision Pro will be on. “At $3,500, it’s not a mass-market product,” Cook says. “Right now, it’s an early-adopter product. People who want to have tomorrow’s technology today—that’s who it’s for. Fortunately, there’s enough people who are in that camp that it’s exciting.” </p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">More exciting is how today’s technology will evolve—and what it might look like tomorrow. The next Vision Pro will almost inevitably be lighter and cheaper, but the competition will also be stiffer, as Meta is making its own massive bets on smart goggles and sunglasses in a way that puts the giant tech companies with conflicting strategies on a collision course. Then again, Apple has a history of turning uncertainty into ubiquity. If you doubt the Vision Pro, you might be right. Or you might be as wrong as the skeptics who dismissed iPods and iPhones and AirPods. And from the success of the company’s iconic products, Cook learned one more thing. </p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">“It doesn’t occur overnight,” he says. “None of these did.”  </p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"><strong>ONE MORNING</strong> in September, the Apple Store on New York City’s Fifth Avenue was glowing. Inside the glass cube, the party anthem “Turn Down for What” blasted at 7:57 a.m. as clapping employees waited for the doors to open at 8. There were lines of shoppers outside, excited to be the first people in America to buy the new iPhones—and get their iPhone boxes autographed by Tim Cook. </p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">All of them would make decisions and form habits with their new devices, just as Cook did with his own iPhone. His wallpaper? A photo with his nephew in Grand Teton National Park. His most underrated app? Notes, where he types or dictates thoughts before he forgets them.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The best name of a group chat? He looked at me like I’d asked him to recommend the best Android phone. </p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">“The best—<em>name</em>?” he said. “I don’t name them. Do you name yours? Interesting. I may take that on.” </p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The next time we meet, Cook proudly reports that he’s named the group chat with his college roommates: Roommates. </p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/657ad18f8de6b3fa1b6be0bfc10b4eb0\" alt=\"‘I’d always like to sell more of everything.’ Cook says, ‘because ultimately, we want our products to be in as many people’s hands as possible.’\" title=\"‘I’d always like to sell more of everything.’ Cook says, ‘because ultimately, we want our products to be in as many people’s hands as possible.’\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"1518\"/><span>‘I’d always like to sell more of everything.’ Cook says, ‘because ultimately, we want our products to be in as many people’s hands as possible.’</span></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">On the morning of iPhone release day, there were other things on his mind. “You work on something for so many years, and you’re wondering how it will be received,” he says. “You never know until you come out with it.” Even then, he couldn’t be sure of the reception for Apple Intelligence. At that moment, it was neither first nor best. Despite the sleek “Hello, Apple Intelligence” ads plastered around the store, the iPhone’s most enticing new feature wouldn’t be available for another month, with more updates rolling out next year. But it didn’t seem to bother customers—or Cook. “In the longness of time,” he says, “I don’t think it will be even a footnote.”</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Every night, the last thing Cook does before he goes to bed is set his iPhone alarm for an ungodly hour before 5 a.m. So after our first sit-down interview, I hunted down his email address and sent him a note. We’d never emailed before, and he had no reason to expect this one. I figured it would get lost in a deluge of messages from colleagues and feedback from customers—maybe even filtered to spam. </p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">I scheduled it to send before 5 a.m.  </p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">He responded at 5:34 a.m.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The reply was friendly, professional and concise, but it wasn’t written by Apple Intelligence. He tapped it out himself. And then Tim Cook got on with his day. </p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Because if you believe that tomorrow is better than today, that also means today is going to be better than yesterday.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tim Cook on Why Apple's Huge Bets Will Pay Off</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTim Cook on Why Apple's Huge Bets Will Pay Off\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-10-21 09:11</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>THE FIRST THING Tim Cook does when he wakes up is check his iPhone. It&#39;s sitting atop his nightstand in silent mode when the chief executive officer of Apple, the most valuable company in the history of the world, reaches for his device and starts triaging his inbox.</p><p>He reads email, reviews overnight sales reports and studies countries where numbers are changing to keep his finger on the pulse of the business. Then he puts the phone away. It&#39;s time to get his own pulse up. During his workout, which he records on his Apple Watch, classic rock pounds through his AirPods. At the office, he switches to his MacBook Air, MacBook Pro and iMac. On the road, he travels with his iPad Pro. &#34;Every day,&#34; he says, &#34;every product.&#34;</p><p>But for the past year, Cook has been using two other products that wouldn&#39;t exist if not for two of the most consequential bets that a company worth trillions of dollars has ever made.</p><p>They are the latest technological innovations to emerge from a patch of land in Cupertino, California, that, over the past half-century, have reshaped the world and come to rule our lives. The iPhone alone generates more money per year than America&#39;s biggest bank and still accounts for only half of Apple&#39;s revenue, with the rest coming from desktops, laptops, tablets, headphones, watches, streaming movies, TV and music and all the other hardware, software, products and services that Tim Cook uses from the second he wakes until the moment he falls asleep.</p><p>There is one idea that encapsulates the approach to innovation that makes all of it possible -- and it&#39;s maybe the closest thing to a grand unified theory of Apple. It&#39;s a philosophy of just four words that describe Apple&#39;s past, present and definitely its future. Four words that help explain why this was the year the company plowed into spatial computing and artificial intelligence. During one of those epochal years when it feels like everything is about to change again, I heard them over and over, in conversation with Apple executives and Cook himself: Not first, but best.</p><p>Cook elaborated on those four words in a lengthy interview this summer at Caffè Macs on Apple&#39;s campus, where the steady and typically reserved CEO explained that his company&#39;s top priority is delivering great products that enrich people&#39;s lives.</p><p>&#34;We&#39;re perfectly fine with not being first,&#34; he says. &#34;As it turns out, it takes a while to get it really great. It takes a lot of iteration. It takes worrying about every detail. Sometimes, it takes a little longer to do that. We would rather come out with that kind of product and that kind of contribution to people versus running to get something out first. If we can do both, that&#39;s fantastic. But if we can only do one, there&#39;s no doubt around here. If you talk to 100 people, 100 of them would tell you: It&#39;s about being the best.&#34;</p><p>COOK HAS BEEN THE CEO of Apple longer than he&#39;s been anything else in his career. But 13 years since he found himself in the unenviable position of following Steve Jobs, he still gets nervous on big days, like the day Wall Street declared was bigger than any since the birth of the iPhone and the biggest day in Cook&#39;s time running the company.</p><p>As visitors descended on a glistening Apple Park in June for the annual Worldwide Developers Conference, the weather felt like it had been designed by Apple. The first car I spotted on campus, a red Tesla, had the license plate VISNPRO. Only a few months earlier, Apple had unveiled a sleek headset for spatial computing, the Vision Pro, a gadget that makes you feel like you&#39;ve been transported to the future. Now the company was introducing something no less ambitious.</p><p>Cook bounded onto the stage to a roar. He may not match Jobs&#39;s showmanship, but he&#39;s a rock star at this event. After greeting the crowd, Cook took his seat in a corner of the front row as a parade of executives showed off Apple Intelligence, the feature that everyone was there to see. It can summarize your notifications. It can proofread an email you&#39;ve written, or rewrite it to make it friendly, professional or concise. It can also generate custom emojis. And it had the clever effect of rebranding a tantalizing but completely terrifying notion as something more familiar and comforting, not artificial intelligence but Apple Intelligence. Cook likes to say that it&#39;s AI for the rest of us.</p><p>&#34;We weren&#39;t the first to do intelligence,&#34; he says. &#34;But we&#39;ve done it in a way that we think is the best for the customer.&#34;</p><p>Including one customer who happens to run the company. Until recently, Cook read long emails. Now he relies on Apple Intelligence summaries. &#34;If I can save time here and there,&#34; he says, &#34;it adds up to something significant across a day, a week, a month.&#34; Even before Apple Intelligence was released, it changed his productivity and daily habits. &#34;It&#39;s changed my life,&#34; he says. &#34;It really has.&#34;</p><p>But how much will it change his business?</p><p>Every second of the day, Apple sells another seven iPhones. In the time it took you to read this sentence, it just sold a few more. And now a few more. Which is surprising, because the iPhone has become so powerful and durable that you don&#39;t have to buy a new one every year. In fact, I&#39;m writing this sentence on an iPhone 11 bought five years ago. (&#34;It&#39;s time to upgrade,&#34; Cook tells me.) The computers we hold in our hands have gotten better, but incrementally, not so obviously that you have to buy the next one -- until now. Or at least that&#39;s the pitch attached to Apple Intelligence. If you have an iPhone like mine, anything older than an iPhone 15 Pro or Pro Max, the only way to add the software that has changed Tim Cook&#39;s life is to buy a newer model.</p><p>I asked Cook if he believes Apple Intelligence will make the experience of using his company&#39;s products fundamentally different, slightly different -- or not at all different.</p><p>&#34;Profoundly different,&#34; he said.</p><p>He puts Apple Intelligence in the same pantheon of innovative breakthroughs as the iPod&#39;s click wheel and the iPhone&#39;s touch interface. &#34;I think we&#39;ll look back and it will be one of these air pockets that happened to get you on a different technology curve,&#34; he says.</p><p>To put it another way, he believes what&#39;s happening to him will happen for everyone. For some, it will happen very soon. For others, it will happen later. &#34;But it will happen,&#34; he says. &#34;It will happen for all of us.&#34;</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/aaf04289deae94d5c3ef257eba90082e\" tg-width=\"1327\" tg-height=\"900\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/434af209bd0547a6a9d8e957f40bded9\" tg-width=\"1327\" tg-height=\"900\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e778f5d250ae0e54c06e3a73c5ffbad4\" tg-width=\"1328\" tg-height=\"900\"/></p><p>The day after Cook officially ushered in this new era, Apple gained more than $200 billion in value. It was the single most lucrative day in the history of the company.</p><p>I LOVE the emerging world,&#34; Tim Cook says. &#34;I love the idea for a bunch of people to feel like tomorrow is better than today -- the dream, the belief that you&#39;re going to stand on your parents&#39; shoulders.&#34;</p><p>Tomorrow is better than today. To understand Cook, you have to understand that he truly believes this. It&#39;s a deeply American idea, he says, though it&#39;s no longer exclusively American. He finds it in every corner of the world. &#34;There may not be a more important philosophy in life,&#34; he says. &#34;I think it&#39;s something we all need to hold onto -- and not only hold onto it, but feel accountable for passing it on.&#34;</p><p>He would know. Before the 45th president of the United States called him Tim Apple, Cook grew up in the small town of Robertsdale, Alabama. Neither of his parents went to college. As a child, he set his mind to attending Auburn University, where he studied industrial engineering, watched football and learned to ask lots of questions.</p><p>&#34;I&#39;ve gone from believing that if you ask questions, it meant you&#39;re fundamentally not smart, to believing that the more you ask, the more curious you are, the smarter you get,&#34; he says.</p><p>He worked at <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IBM\">IBM</a> and Compaq and developed such a reputation for supply-chain and logistics expertise that in early 1998, Apple called. The rational thing to do was hang up. The year before, the company had lost more than a billion dollars. But he listened to his intuition and took the meeting with Jobs. Within minutes, he knew he wanted to work at Apple.</p><p>When he moved to California, Cook lived in a tiny apartment, drove a Honda Accord but preferred his bicycle and subsisted on chicken, rice and steamed vegetables. At Apple, he reinvented the company&#39;s supply chain, modernizing logistics and transforming a mediocre operations team into a machine. He was promoted to chief operating officer in 2005 and elevated to chief executive officer in August 2011. That October, on the day of his first major event as CEO, Cook went to Jobs&#39;s home to say goodbye. One of Jobs&#39;s last pieces of advice for his successor was to not ask what he would do -- and just do what was right. He died the next day.</p><p>It was only natural to wonder if Apple could survive without Jobs. But under Cook, the company matured into something more predictable, maybe a bit less magical, but a whole lot more valuable.</p><p>On the day I met him in Caffè Macs, nothing about the executive&#39;s appearance suggested that he was someone who could utter a single word and seriously dent the global economy. One of the most powerful men on the planet wore a plain polo shirt, casual jeans, and sneakers and glasses made by Nike.</p><p>Even today, Cook, who turns 64 in November, has maintained his privacy to the point that the public doesn&#39;t know much about him. That his favorite escape is hiking the national parks. That he drinks Diet Mountain Dew, though not as much as he once did, because Apple doesn&#39;t stock his favorite soda. That he follows Duke basketball and Auburn football so closely that this summer he was monitoring the Denver Broncos&#39; starting quarterback competition between two Auburn alumni. This is how he likes it. A decade ago, when he came out as the first gay CEO of a major company, Cook said that he prefers to keep the attention on Apple products and their impact on customers&#39; lives.</p><p>With that in mind, I asked if he ever thinks about what his childhood in Alabama would have been like if it had been filled with those products. </p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">“Yeah, I do,” he says quietly. “This was pre-internet, and just the idea that you can find people like you would have been an extraordinary idea at that point in time.” </p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">It would have opened up an emerging world with answers to his many questions—a portal beyond a small town where one boy with the belief that tomorrow was better than today was already beginning to think differently.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"><strong>ONE OF THE PECULIAR THINGS</strong> about Apple is how many of its most successful products once appeared to be failures. Maybe you’ve forgotten this, now that it seems crazy anyone thought there wouldn’t be a market for them. Apple’s executives haven’t. They remember when the company was ridiculed for reasons that sound totally ridiculous. The iPhone didn’t have a physical keyboard. The iPod cost $399 when CD players were $39. AirPods looked funny and would fall out of your ears. Who would wear an Apple Watch or use Apple Pay or watch an Apple TV+ show about an American football coach hired by a British soccer team? By now, they’re used to it. “It’s predictable in some ways,” Cook says. </p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Some devices that are now like bodily appendages were underwhelming at first and improved with time. Others were simply ahead of their time. Elsewhere in Silicon Valley, patience has the approval rating of carrier pigeons. But for every product that began slowly, Cook says he was confident it would eventually catch on. “It’s not that people are wrong and we’re right,” he says. “We have enough faith that if we love the product, there will be enough other people out there that love it too.” </p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/576e57267ffa105a00c2ed633e3e6a2b\" alt=\"One of Steve Jobs’s last pieces of advice for Cook was to not ask what he would do—and just do what was right. Photo: Paul Sakuma/AP Photo\" title=\"One of Steve Jobs’s last pieces of advice for Cook was to not ask what he would do—and just do what was right. Photo: Paul Sakuma/AP Photo\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"476\"/><span>One of Steve Jobs’s last pieces of advice for Cook was to not ask what he would do—and just do what was right. Photo: Paul Sakuma/AP Photo</span></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">It’s hard for a company that can do so many things to decide what it actually wants to do—and what it can do better than anyone. “The key for us is focus,” Cook says, “saying no to really, really good ideas so you can make room for the great ones.” But the only thing harder than deciding what to do is doing it. “We’d argue the innovation isn’t having that idea,” says Craig Federighi, Apple’s senior vice president of software engineering. “The innovation was being able to craft the right product that you could deliver in a great way at the time.” </p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">In other words, innovation is everything that happens after the idea. And at Apple, it happens in a carefully protected area called the Design Studio. When I’m given a tour, opaque white barriers prevent me from peeking at any secret projects in the works. The company’s designers joke that 99 percent of them will never see the light of day. This year, for example, Apple killed plans to build an electric car after spending more than a decade and billions of dollars pursuing one, a costly reminder that Apple products are more likely to fail internally than externally. </p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Of all the products that made it beyond the area I could not see, the most ambitious to pull off was Vision Pro. There are lots of reasons why a supercomputer disguised as ski goggles is something of a technological miracle. When I spoke with Apple’s leading design minds, they weren’t allowed to tell me most of them. Apple says there are more than 5,000 patents baked into the Vision Pro, which is another way of saying 5,000 limitations that had never been overcome before. To make this sort of product, says Alan Dye, vice president of human interface design, “it takes not only that big idea that might be innovative, but really the hundreds or thousands of innovative thoughts that come after it.” </p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Maybe the most surprising aspect of Vision Pro is how it makes you <em>feel.</em> You might not believe that strapping yourself into a piece of technology could be emotionally overwhelming. But when you experience an ultra-high-resolution spatial photo of your daughter at age 3, or watch an immersive video of a grandparent who’s since died, it’s no longer a headset. It’s a time machine. You put on this device from the future and find yourself reliving the past. You come back to the present and have tears in your eyes. </p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">“That really is why we did this product,” says Richard Howarth, vice president of industrial design. “It’s got the ability to do things that the other products can’t do.” </p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">There is no killer use case for the Vision Pro yet, so I asked Cook how he’s using it. At work, of course, when he wants several windows open for multitasking. But especially at home. “I’ve always viewed having to sit in a certain place in your living room as really constrained,” he says. He prefers to lie flat on the couch, project <em>Ted Lasso</em> and <em>The Morning Show</em> on the ceiling and stare into the Vision Pro. “It’s a lot more pleasant way to watch something than to sit like a statue in front of a TV,” he insists.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/32bf1e3548971573d967ec48ca70fe7d\" alt=\"‘We have enough faith that if we love the product, there will be enough other people out there that love it too,’ says Cook.\" title=\"‘We have enough faith that if we love the product, there will be enough other people out there that love it too,’ says Cook.\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"1518\"/><span>‘We have enough faith that if we love the product, there will be enough other people out there that love it too,’ says Cook.</span></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Jon M. Chu agrees. The director of <em>Wicked</em> grew up in Silicon Valley and bought a Vision Pro the first day it went on sale. From the second he put it on, he knew it would have a dramatic effect on his creative process. “Everyone here laughs at me because I’m so obsessed with it,” he says. Jobs once famously described computers as a bicycle for the mind. “I feel like Vision Pro is a rocket ship for the mind,” Chu says. “You don’t know where you’re headed, but you get to go someplace and figure it out with everybody.” </p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">But that rocket ship is an expensive ride. When the Vision Pro came out this year, mixed reality crashed into the reality that most consumers aren’t ready to shell out $3,500 for a cool toy. </p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">“Over time, everything gets better, and it too will have its course of getting better and better,” Cook says. “I think it’s just arguably a success today from an ecosystem-being-built-out point of view.” </p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">And from a sales point of view?</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">“I’d always like to sell more of everything, because ultimately, we want our products to be in as many people’s hands as possible,” he says. “And so obviously I’d like to sell more.” But there’s a limit to the number of faces this version of the Vision Pro will be on. “At $3,500, it’s not a mass-market product,” Cook says. “Right now, it’s an early-adopter product. People who want to have tomorrow’s technology today—that’s who it’s for. Fortunately, there’s enough people who are in that camp that it’s exciting.” </p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">More exciting is how today’s technology will evolve—and what it might look like tomorrow. The next Vision Pro will almost inevitably be lighter and cheaper, but the competition will also be stiffer, as Meta is making its own massive bets on smart goggles and sunglasses in a way that puts the giant tech companies with conflicting strategies on a collision course. Then again, Apple has a history of turning uncertainty into ubiquity. If you doubt the Vision Pro, you might be right. Or you might be as wrong as the skeptics who dismissed iPods and iPhones and AirPods. And from the success of the company’s iconic products, Cook learned one more thing. </p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">“It doesn’t occur overnight,” he says. “None of these did.”  </p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"><strong>ONE MORNING</strong> in September, the Apple Store on New York City’s Fifth Avenue was glowing. Inside the glass cube, the party anthem “Turn Down for What” blasted at 7:57 a.m. as clapping employees waited for the doors to open at 8. There were lines of shoppers outside, excited to be the first people in America to buy the new iPhones—and get their iPhone boxes autographed by Tim Cook. </p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">All of them would make decisions and form habits with their new devices, just as Cook did with his own iPhone. His wallpaper? A photo with his nephew in Grand Teton National Park. His most underrated app? Notes, where he types or dictates thoughts before he forgets them.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The best name of a group chat? He looked at me like I’d asked him to recommend the best Android phone. </p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">“The best—<em>name</em>?” he said. “I don’t name them. Do you name yours? Interesting. I may take that on.” </p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The next time we meet, Cook proudly reports that he’s named the group chat with his college roommates: Roommates. </p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/657ad18f8de6b3fa1b6be0bfc10b4eb0\" alt=\"‘I’d always like to sell more of everything.’ Cook says, ‘because ultimately, we want our products to be in as many people’s hands as possible.’\" title=\"‘I’d always like to sell more of everything.’ Cook says, ‘because ultimately, we want our products to be in as many people’s hands as possible.’\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"1518\"/><span>‘I’d always like to sell more of everything.’ Cook says, ‘because ultimately, we want our products to be in as many people’s hands as possible.’</span></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">On the morning of iPhone release day, there were other things on his mind. “You work on something for so many years, and you’re wondering how it will be received,” he says. “You never know until you come out with it.” Even then, he couldn’t be sure of the reception for Apple Intelligence. At that moment, it was neither first nor best. Despite the sleek “Hello, Apple Intelligence” ads plastered around the store, the iPhone’s most enticing new feature wouldn’t be available for another month, with more updates rolling out next year. But it didn’t seem to bother customers—or Cook. “In the longness of time,” he says, “I don’t think it will be even a footnote.”</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Every night, the last thing Cook does before he goes to bed is set his iPhone alarm for an ungodly hour before 5 a.m. So after our first sit-down interview, I hunted down his email address and sent him a note. We’d never emailed before, and he had no reason to expect this one. I figured it would get lost in a deluge of messages from colleagues and feedback from customers—maybe even filtered to spam. </p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">I scheduled it to send before 5 a.m.  </p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">He responded at 5:34 a.m.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The reply was friendly, professional and concise, but it wasn’t written by Apple Intelligence. He tapped it out himself. And then Tim Cook got on with his day. </p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Because if you believe that tomorrow is better than today, that also means today is going to be better than yesterday.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","IE00BK4W5L77.USD":"HSBC GLOBAL FUNDS ICAV US EQUITY INDEX \"HC\" (USD) ACC","IE00BZ1G4Q59.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE US EQUITY SUSTAINABILITY LEADER \"A\"(USD) INC (A)","BK4507":"流媒体概念","BK4576":"AR","IE0005OL40V9.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A6M\" (USD) INC","IE000W1ABFV2.USD":"PIMCO BALANCED INCOME AND GROWTH \"R\" (USD) INC","IE00BK4W5M84.HKD":"HSBC GLOBAL FUNDS ICAV US EQUITY INDEX \"HC\" (HKD) ACC","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4575":"芯片概念","IE00B19Z8X17.USD":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE US LARGE CAP GROWTH  \"AG\" (USD) ACC","IE0003U64NQ7.SGD":"PIMCO BALANCED INCOME AND GROWTH \"M\" (SGDHDG) ACC","IE00B1BXHZ80.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Appreciation A Acc USD","BK4132":"无线电信业务","BK4527":"明星科技股","IE000KEQY171.SGD":"PIMCO BALANCED INCOME AND GROWTH \"M\" (SGDHDG) INC","IE00BFSS8Q28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD-H","BK4501":"段永平概念","BK4588":"碎股","BK4579":"人工智能","IE00B3SWFQ91.USD":"PIMCO BALANCED INCOME AND GROWTH \"E\" (USD) INC","IE0034235303.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US RESEARCH ENHANCED CORE EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BKVL7J92.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Equity Sustainability Leaders A Acc USD","IE00B19Z8W00.USD":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE US LARGE CAP GROWTH \"A\" INC","IE0009356076.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION \"A2\" (USD) ACC","BK4574":"无人驾驶","AAPL":"苹果","IE00B4JS1V06.HKD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (HKD) ACC","IE00B7KXQ091.USD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc USD","IE00BLSP4239.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Tactical Dividend Income A Mdis USD Plus","BK4573":"虚拟现实","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","IE0004086264.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4581":"高盛持仓","IE00BFSS7M15.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD-H","IE00BLSP4452.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Tactical Dividend Income A Mdis SGD-H Plus","HK0000306685.HKD":"TAIKANG KAITAI CHINA NEW OPPORTUNITIES FUND \"A\" (HKD) INC","IE00B19Z9505.USD":"美盛-美国大盘成长股A Acc","IE0004091025.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES \"B\" (USD) ACC","BK4170":"电脑硬件、储存设备及电脑周边","IE00BN8TJ469.HKD":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE TACTICAL DIVIDEND INCOME \"A\" (HKD) INC","IE00BJJMRY28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD","BK4592":"伊斯兰概念","IE00BBT3K403.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE TACTICAL DIVIDEND INCOME \"A(USD) ACC","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","HK0000306701.USD":"TAIKANG KAITAI CHINA NEW OPPORTUNITIES FUND \"A\" (USD) INC"},"source_url":"https://dowjonesnews.com/newdjn/logon.aspx?AL=N","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2477404220","content_text":"THE FIRST THING Tim Cook does when he wakes up is check his iPhone. It's sitting atop his nightstand in silent mode when the chief executive officer of Apple, the most valuable company in the history of the world, reaches for his device and starts triaging his inbox.He reads email, reviews overnight sales reports and studies countries where numbers are changing to keep his finger on the pulse of the business. Then he puts the phone away. It's time to get his own pulse up. During his workout, which he records on his Apple Watch, classic rock pounds through his AirPods. At the office, he switches to his MacBook Air, MacBook Pro and iMac. On the road, he travels with his iPad Pro. \"Every day,\" he says, \"every product.\"But for the past year, Cook has been using two other products that wouldn't exist if not for two of the most consequential bets that a company worth trillions of dollars has ever made.They are the latest technological innovations to emerge from a patch of land in Cupertino, California, that, over the past half-century, have reshaped the world and come to rule our lives. The iPhone alone generates more money per year than America's biggest bank and still accounts for only half of Apple's revenue, with the rest coming from desktops, laptops, tablets, headphones, watches, streaming movies, TV and music and all the other hardware, software, products and services that Tim Cook uses from the second he wakes until the moment he falls asleep.There is one idea that encapsulates the approach to innovation that makes all of it possible -- and it's maybe the closest thing to a grand unified theory of Apple. It's a philosophy of just four words that describe Apple's past, present and definitely its future. Four words that help explain why this was the year the company plowed into spatial computing and artificial intelligence. During one of those epochal years when it feels like everything is about to change again, I heard them over and over, in conversation with Apple executives and Cook himself: Not first, but best.Cook elaborated on those four words in a lengthy interview this summer at Caffè Macs on Apple's campus, where the steady and typically reserved CEO explained that his company's top priority is delivering great products that enrich people's lives.\"We're perfectly fine with not being first,\" he says. \"As it turns out, it takes a while to get it really great. It takes a lot of iteration. It takes worrying about every detail. Sometimes, it takes a little longer to do that. We would rather come out with that kind of product and that kind of contribution to people versus running to get something out first. If we can do both, that's fantastic. But if we can only do one, there's no doubt around here. If you talk to 100 people, 100 of them would tell you: It's about being the best.\"COOK HAS BEEN THE CEO of Apple longer than he's been anything else in his career. But 13 years since he found himself in the unenviable position of following Steve Jobs, he still gets nervous on big days, like the day Wall Street declared was bigger than any since the birth of the iPhone and the biggest day in Cook's time running the company.As visitors descended on a glistening Apple Park in June for the annual Worldwide Developers Conference, the weather felt like it had been designed by Apple. The first car I spotted on campus, a red Tesla, had the license plate VISNPRO. Only a few months earlier, Apple had unveiled a sleek headset for spatial computing, the Vision Pro, a gadget that makes you feel like you've been transported to the future. Now the company was introducing something no less ambitious.Cook bounded onto the stage to a roar. He may not match Jobs's showmanship, but he's a rock star at this event. After greeting the crowd, Cook took his seat in a corner of the front row as a parade of executives showed off Apple Intelligence, the feature that everyone was there to see. It can summarize your notifications. It can proofread an email you've written, or rewrite it to make it friendly, professional or concise. It can also generate custom emojis. And it had the clever effect of rebranding a tantalizing but completely terrifying notion as something more familiar and comforting, not artificial intelligence but Apple Intelligence. Cook likes to say that it's AI for the rest of us.\"We weren't the first to do intelligence,\" he says. \"But we've done it in a way that we think is the best for the customer.\"Including one customer who happens to run the company. Until recently, Cook read long emails. Now he relies on Apple Intelligence summaries. \"If I can save time here and there,\" he says, \"it adds up to something significant across a day, a week, a month.\" Even before Apple Intelligence was released, it changed his productivity and daily habits. \"It's changed my life,\" he says. \"It really has.\"But how much will it change his business?Every second of the day, Apple sells another seven iPhones. In the time it took you to read this sentence, it just sold a few more. And now a few more. Which is surprising, because the iPhone has become so powerful and durable that you don't have to buy a new one every year. In fact, I'm writing this sentence on an iPhone 11 bought five years ago. (\"It's time to upgrade,\" Cook tells me.) The computers we hold in our hands have gotten better, but incrementally, not so obviously that you have to buy the next one -- until now. Or at least that's the pitch attached to Apple Intelligence. If you have an iPhone like mine, anything older than an iPhone 15 Pro or Pro Max, the only way to add the software that has changed Tim Cook's life is to buy a newer model.I asked Cook if he believes Apple Intelligence will make the experience of using his company's products fundamentally different, slightly different -- or not at all different.\"Profoundly different,\" he said.He puts Apple Intelligence in the same pantheon of innovative breakthroughs as the iPod's click wheel and the iPhone's touch interface. \"I think we'll look back and it will be one of these air pockets that happened to get you on a different technology curve,\" he says.To put it another way, he believes what's happening to him will happen for everyone. For some, it will happen very soon. For others, it will happen later. \"But it will happen,\" he says. \"It will happen for all of us.\"The day after Cook officially ushered in this new era, Apple gained more than $200 billion in value. It was the single most lucrative day in the history of the company.I LOVE the emerging world,\" Tim Cook says. \"I love the idea for a bunch of people to feel like tomorrow is better than today -- the dream, the belief that you're going to stand on your parents' shoulders.\"Tomorrow is better than today. To understand Cook, you have to understand that he truly believes this. It's a deeply American idea, he says, though it's no longer exclusively American. He finds it in every corner of the world. \"There may not be a more important philosophy in life,\" he says. \"I think it's something we all need to hold onto -- and not only hold onto it, but feel accountable for passing it on.\"He would know. Before the 45th president of the United States called him Tim Apple, Cook grew up in the small town of Robertsdale, Alabama. Neither of his parents went to college. As a child, he set his mind to attending Auburn University, where he studied industrial engineering, watched football and learned to ask lots of questions.\"I've gone from believing that if you ask questions, it meant you're fundamentally not smart, to believing that the more you ask, the more curious you are, the smarter you get,\" he says.He worked at IBM and Compaq and developed such a reputation for supply-chain and logistics expertise that in early 1998, Apple called. The rational thing to do was hang up. The year before, the company had lost more than a billion dollars. But he listened to his intuition and took the meeting with Jobs. Within minutes, he knew he wanted to work at Apple.When he moved to California, Cook lived in a tiny apartment, drove a Honda Accord but preferred his bicycle and subsisted on chicken, rice and steamed vegetables. At Apple, he reinvented the company's supply chain, modernizing logistics and transforming a mediocre operations team into a machine. He was promoted to chief operating officer in 2005 and elevated to chief executive officer in August 2011. That October, on the day of his first major event as CEO, Cook went to Jobs's home to say goodbye. One of Jobs's last pieces of advice for his successor was to not ask what he would do -- and just do what was right. He died the next day.It was only natural to wonder if Apple could survive without Jobs. But under Cook, the company matured into something more predictable, maybe a bit less magical, but a whole lot more valuable.On the day I met him in Caffè Macs, nothing about the executive's appearance suggested that he was someone who could utter a single word and seriously dent the global economy. One of the most powerful men on the planet wore a plain polo shirt, casual jeans, and sneakers and glasses made by Nike.Even today, Cook, who turns 64 in November, has maintained his privacy to the point that the public doesn't know much about him. That his favorite escape is hiking the national parks. That he drinks Diet Mountain Dew, though not as much as he once did, because Apple doesn't stock his favorite soda. That he follows Duke basketball and Auburn football so closely that this summer he was monitoring the Denver Broncos' starting quarterback competition between two Auburn alumni. This is how he likes it. A decade ago, when he came out as the first gay CEO of a major company, Cook said that he prefers to keep the attention on Apple products and their impact on customers' lives.With that in mind, I asked if he ever thinks about what his childhood in Alabama would have been like if it had been filled with those products. “Yeah, I do,” he says quietly. “This was pre-internet, and just the idea that you can find people like you would have been an extraordinary idea at that point in time.” It would have opened up an emerging world with answers to his many questions—a portal beyond a small town where one boy with the belief that tomorrow was better than today was already beginning to think differently.ONE OF THE PECULIAR THINGS about Apple is how many of its most successful products once appeared to be failures. Maybe you’ve forgotten this, now that it seems crazy anyone thought there wouldn’t be a market for them. Apple’s executives haven’t. They remember when the company was ridiculed for reasons that sound totally ridiculous. The iPhone didn’t have a physical keyboard. The iPod cost $399 when CD players were $39. AirPods looked funny and would fall out of your ears. Who would wear an Apple Watch or use Apple Pay or watch an Apple TV+ show about an American football coach hired by a British soccer team? By now, they’re used to it. “It’s predictable in some ways,” Cook says. Some devices that are now like bodily appendages were underwhelming at first and improved with time. Others were simply ahead of their time. Elsewhere in Silicon Valley, patience has the approval rating of carrier pigeons. But for every product that began slowly, Cook says he was confident it would eventually catch on. “It’s not that people are wrong and we’re right,” he says. “We have enough faith that if we love the product, there will be enough other people out there that love it too.” One of Steve Jobs’s last pieces of advice for Cook was to not ask what he would do—and just do what was right. Photo: Paul Sakuma/AP PhotoIt’s hard for a company that can do so many things to decide what it actually wants to do—and what it can do better than anyone. “The key for us is focus,” Cook says, “saying no to really, really good ideas so you can make room for the great ones.” But the only thing harder than deciding what to do is doing it. “We’d argue the innovation isn’t having that idea,” says Craig Federighi, Apple’s senior vice president of software engineering. “The innovation was being able to craft the right product that you could deliver in a great way at the time.” In other words, innovation is everything that happens after the idea. And at Apple, it happens in a carefully protected area called the Design Studio. When I’m given a tour, opaque white barriers prevent me from peeking at any secret projects in the works. The company’s designers joke that 99 percent of them will never see the light of day. This year, for example, Apple killed plans to build an electric car after spending more than a decade and billions of dollars pursuing one, a costly reminder that Apple products are more likely to fail internally than externally. Of all the products that made it beyond the area I could not see, the most ambitious to pull off was Vision Pro. There are lots of reasons why a supercomputer disguised as ski goggles is something of a technological miracle. When I spoke with Apple’s leading design minds, they weren’t allowed to tell me most of them. Apple says there are more than 5,000 patents baked into the Vision Pro, which is another way of saying 5,000 limitations that had never been overcome before. To make this sort of product, says Alan Dye, vice president of human interface design, “it takes not only that big idea that might be innovative, but really the hundreds or thousands of innovative thoughts that come after it.” Maybe the most surprising aspect of Vision Pro is how it makes you feel. You might not believe that strapping yourself into a piece of technology could be emotionally overwhelming. But when you experience an ultra-high-resolution spatial photo of your daughter at age 3, or watch an immersive video of a grandparent who’s since died, it’s no longer a headset. It’s a time machine. You put on this device from the future and find yourself reliving the past. You come back to the present and have tears in your eyes. “That really is why we did this product,” says Richard Howarth, vice president of industrial design. “It’s got the ability to do things that the other products can’t do.” There is no killer use case for the Vision Pro yet, so I asked Cook how he’s using it. At work, of course, when he wants several windows open for multitasking. But especially at home. “I’ve always viewed having to sit in a certain place in your living room as really constrained,” he says. He prefers to lie flat on the couch, project Ted Lasso and The Morning Show on the ceiling and stare into the Vision Pro. “It’s a lot more pleasant way to watch something than to sit like a statue in front of a TV,” he insists.‘We have enough faith that if we love the product, there will be enough other people out there that love it too,’ says Cook.Jon M. Chu agrees. The director of Wicked grew up in Silicon Valley and bought a Vision Pro the first day it went on sale. From the second he put it on, he knew it would have a dramatic effect on his creative process. “Everyone here laughs at me because I’m so obsessed with it,” he says. Jobs once famously described computers as a bicycle for the mind. “I feel like Vision Pro is a rocket ship for the mind,” Chu says. “You don’t know where you’re headed, but you get to go someplace and figure it out with everybody.” But that rocket ship is an expensive ride. When the Vision Pro came out this year, mixed reality crashed into the reality that most consumers aren’t ready to shell out $3,500 for a cool toy. “Over time, everything gets better, and it too will have its course of getting better and better,” Cook says. “I think it’s just arguably a success today from an ecosystem-being-built-out point of view.” And from a sales point of view?“I’d always like to sell more of everything, because ultimately, we want our products to be in as many people’s hands as possible,” he says. “And so obviously I’d like to sell more.” But there’s a limit to the number of faces this version of the Vision Pro will be on. “At $3,500, it’s not a mass-market product,” Cook says. “Right now, it’s an early-adopter product. People who want to have tomorrow’s technology today—that’s who it’s for. Fortunately, there’s enough people who are in that camp that it’s exciting.” More exciting is how today’s technology will evolve—and what it might look like tomorrow. The next Vision Pro will almost inevitably be lighter and cheaper, but the competition will also be stiffer, as Meta is making its own massive bets on smart goggles and sunglasses in a way that puts the giant tech companies with conflicting strategies on a collision course. Then again, Apple has a history of turning uncertainty into ubiquity. If you doubt the Vision Pro, you might be right. Or you might be as wrong as the skeptics who dismissed iPods and iPhones and AirPods. And from the success of the company’s iconic products, Cook learned one more thing. “It doesn’t occur overnight,” he says. “None of these did.”  ONE MORNING in September, the Apple Store on New York City’s Fifth Avenue was glowing. Inside the glass cube, the party anthem “Turn Down for What” blasted at 7:57 a.m. as clapping employees waited for the doors to open at 8. There were lines of shoppers outside, excited to be the first people in America to buy the new iPhones—and get their iPhone boxes autographed by Tim Cook. All of them would make decisions and form habits with their new devices, just as Cook did with his own iPhone. His wallpaper? A photo with his nephew in Grand Teton National Park. His most underrated app? Notes, where he types or dictates thoughts before he forgets them.The best name of a group chat? He looked at me like I’d asked him to recommend the best Android phone. “The best—name?” he said. “I don’t name them. Do you name yours? Interesting. I may take that on.” The next time we meet, Cook proudly reports that he’s named the group chat with his college roommates: Roommates. ‘I’d always like to sell more of everything.’ Cook says, ‘because ultimately, we want our products to be in as many people’s hands as possible.’On the morning of iPhone release day, there were other things on his mind. “You work on something for so many years, and you’re wondering how it will be received,” he says. “You never know until you come out with it.” Even then, he couldn’t be sure of the reception for Apple Intelligence. At that moment, it was neither first nor best. Despite the sleek “Hello, Apple Intelligence” ads plastered around the store, the iPhone’s most enticing new feature wouldn’t be available for another month, with more updates rolling out next year. But it didn’t seem to bother customers—or Cook. “In the longness of time,” he says, “I don’t think it will be even a footnote.”Every night, the last thing Cook does before he goes to bed is set his iPhone alarm for an ungodly hour before 5 a.m. So after our first sit-down interview, I hunted down his email address and sent him a note. We’d never emailed before, and he had no reason to expect this one. I figured it would get lost in a deluge of messages from colleagues and feedback from customers—maybe even filtered to spam. I scheduled it to send before 5 a.m.  He responded at 5:34 a.m.The reply was friendly, professional and concise, but it wasn’t written by Apple Intelligence. He tapped it out himself. And then Tim Cook got on with his day. Because if you believe that tomorrow is better than today, that also means today is going to be better than yesterday.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":8,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":362624165376312,"gmtCreate":1729567121579,"gmtModify":1729567433640,"author":{"id":"4192641781859792","authorId":"4192641781859792","name":"Roy ong and Motorless are gay boy","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4192641781859792","authorIdStr":"4192641781859792"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"NG LENG HWEE","listText":"NG LENG HWEE","text":"NG LENG HWEE","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/362624165376312","repostId":"361095468318744","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":361095468318744,"gmtCreate":1729193755041,"gmtModify":1729193759265,"author":{"id":"4091288899223820","authorId":"4091288899223820","name":"文登股神","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/968554394515074fc7e84998905ba338","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4091288899223820","authorIdStr":"4091288899223820"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/ADM\">$阿彻丹尼尔斯米德兰公司(ADM)$</a> A&nbsp; Adm Yao good","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/ADM\">$阿彻丹尼尔斯米德兰公司(ADM)$</a> A&nbsp; Adm Yao good","text":"$阿彻丹尼尔斯米德兰公司(ADM)$ A Adm Yao good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/361095468318744","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":8,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":362599188603096,"gmtCreate":1729567067672,"gmtModify":1729567106338,"author":{"id":"4192641781859792","authorId":"4192641781859792","name":"Roy ong and Motorless are gay boy","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4192641781859792","authorIdStr":"4192641781859792"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Roy NG LENG HWEE","listText":"Roy NG LENG HWEE","text":"Roy NG LENG HWEE","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/362599188603096","repostId":"353454272720904","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":353454272720904,"gmtCreate":1727329328948,"gmtModify":1727333191738,"author":{"id":"3574935484727599","authorId":"3574935484727599","name":"LawrenceSG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a879ddd0abf131f7ee8ffa279a89e97d","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574935484727599","authorIdStr":"3574935484727599"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/ADM 20241011 59.0 PUT\">$ADM 20241011 59.0 PUT$ </a> buy put n huat! <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/ADM\">$Archer-Daniels Midland(ADM)$ </a>&nbsp; How I know...I have sell put that went into the money. Buy call that gone worthless. Buy future call if u believe it will come back. But short term put as it is going down further. Alamak, lose 160 ITM spread. Lost 160 x dca buy call ... Whenever I touch this ticker...it dips.&nbsp; Haiz","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/ADM 20241011 59.0 PUT\">$ADM 20241011 59.0 PUT$ </a> buy put n huat! <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/ADM\">$Archer-Daniels Midland(ADM)$ </a>&nbsp; How I know...I have sell put that went into the money. Buy call that gone worthless. Buy future call if u believe it will come back. But short term put as it is going down further. Alamak, lose 160 ITM spread. Lost 160 x dca buy call ... Whenever I touch this ticker...it dips.&nbsp; Haiz","text":"$ADM 20241011 59.0 PUT$ buy put n huat! $Archer-Daniels Midland(ADM)$ How I know...I have sell put that went into the money. Buy call that gone worthless. Buy future call if u believe it will come back. But short term put as it is going down further. Alamak, lose 160 ITM spread. Lost 160 x dca buy call ... Whenever I touch this ticker...it dips. Haiz","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f58bca97120db2d57927d397a60f029e","width":"1079","height":"1127"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/353454272720904","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":364394469748904,"gmtCreate":1729973734182,"gmtModify":1729997866340,"author":{"id":"4192641781859792","authorId":"4192641781859792","name":"Roy ong and Motorless are gay boy","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4192641781859792","authorIdStr":"4192641781859792"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Replying to <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/4132300740238052\">@icycrystal</a>:SKY NG LENG HWEE//<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/4132300740238052\">@icycrystal</a>:not sure if it's the best time to invest in Chinese stock since it seems to have not recover... however, on the other hand, it may be an opportunity to buy at a good price and wait for its recovery... <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/4113904591642392\"> @</a><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/4113904591642392\">LMSunshine</a><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/4113904591642392\"> </a><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/4100927749199030\"> @</a><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/4100927749199030\">rL</a><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/4100927749199030\"> </a><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/3581735774790928\"> @</a>","listText":"Replying to <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/4132300740238052\">@icycrystal</a>:SKY NG LENG HWEE//<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/4132300740238052\">@icycrystal</a>:not sure if it's the best time to invest in Chinese stock since it seems to have not recover... however, on the other hand, it may be an opportunity to buy at a good price and wait for its recovery... <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/4113904591642392\"> @</a><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/4113904591642392\">LMSunshine</a><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/4113904591642392\"> </a><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/4100927749199030\"> @</a><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/4100927749199030\">rL</a><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/4100927749199030\"> </a><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/3581735774790928\"> @</a>","text":"Replying to @icycrystal:SKY NG LENG HWEE//@icycrystal:not sure if it's the best time to invest in Chinese stock since it seems to have not recover... however, on the other hand, it may be an opportunity to buy at a good price and wait for its recovery... @LMSunshine @rL @","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/364394469748904","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":88,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4141429963588842","authorId":"4141429963588842","name":"TigerGPT","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5b82af1deb17dfa8f94b4741b9ea2738","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4141429963588842","authorIdStr":"4141429963588842"},"content":"It's true that things aren't doing very well for the Chinese stock market right now, but whether it's the best time to invest remains to be seen. Investing in stocks requires consideration of many factors, including macroeconomic conditions, industry outlook, company financial status, etc. If you think the Chinese stock market has great long-term potential and have the patience to wait for the stock price to recover, then now may be a time to consider investing. In addition, undervalued stock prices may provide better buying opportunities for investment. However, I recommend conducting adequate research and research before making investment decisions. You can pay attention to relevant news and opinions to understand the trends and forecasts of China's stock market, and you can also consider consulting professional investment consultants for more advice. It should be noted that there are risks in the stock market, so investment needs to be cautious. The above information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.","text":"It's true that things aren't doing very well for the Chinese stock market right now, but whether it's the best time to invest remains to be seen. Investing in stocks requires consideration of many factors, including macroeconomic conditions, industry outlook, company financial status, etc. If you think the Chinese stock market has great long-term potential and have the patience to wait for the stock price to recover, then now may be a time to consider investing. In addition, undervalued stock prices may provide better buying opportunities for investment. However, I recommend conducting adequate research and research before making investment decisions. You can pay attention to relevant news and opinions to understand the trends and forecasts of China's stock market, and you can also consider consulting professional investment consultants for more advice. It should be noted that there are risks in the stock market, so investment needs to be cautious. The above information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.","html":"It's true that things aren't doing very well for the Chinese stock market right now, but whether it's the best time to invest remains to be seen. Investing in stocks requires consideration of many factors, including macroeconomic conditions, industry outlook, company financial status, etc. If you think the Chinese stock market has great long-term potential and have the patience to wait for the stock price to recover, then now may be a time to consider investing. In addition, undervalued stock prices may provide better buying opportunities for investment. However, I recommend conducting adequate research and research before making investment decisions. You can pay attention to relevant news and opinions to understand the trends and forecasts of China's stock market, and you can also consider consulting professional investment consultants for more advice. It should be noted that there are risks in the stock market, so investment needs to be cautious. The above information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice."}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":366341773336632,"gmtCreate":1730447221918,"gmtModify":1730447224330,"author":{"id":"4192641781859792","authorId":"4192641781859792","name":"Roy ong and Motorless are gay boy","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4192641781859792","authorIdStr":"4192641781859792"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a>&nbsp;","text":"$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/366341773336632","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":366312322854984,"gmtCreate":1730432288922,"gmtModify":1730432290955,"author":{"id":"4192641781859792","authorId":"4192641781859792","name":"Roy ong and Motorless are gay boy","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4192641781859792","authorIdStr":"4192641781859792"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/DRUG\">$Bright Minds Biosciences Inc(DRUG)$ </a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/DRUG\">$Bright Minds Biosciences Inc(DRUG)$ </a>&nbsp;","text":"$Bright Minds Biosciences Inc(DRUG)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/366312322854984","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":365778632683776,"gmtCreate":1730341536342,"gmtModify":1730341539147,"author":{"id":"4192641781859792","authorId":"4192641781859792","name":"Roy ong and Motorless are gay boy","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4192641781859792","authorIdStr":"4192641781859792"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SMCI\">$SUPER MICRO COMPUTER INC(SMCI)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SMCI\">$SUPER MICRO COMPUTER INC(SMCI)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>&nbsp;","text":"$SUPER MICRO COMPUTER INC(SMCI)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/365778632683776","repostId":"1190757025","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1190757025","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1006801671","head_image":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4567337cbdf294b657b1fa87c5488b48"},"pubTimestamp":1730295528,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1190757025?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-10-30 21:38","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Super Micro Shares Tank over 33% as Ernst & Young Resigns as Its Accountant","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1190757025","media":"Reuters","summary":"$Super Micro Computer (SMCI)$ shares slumped 33.75% in morning trading on Wednesday after it said Ernst & Young had resigned as its public accounting firm, over a month after Hindenburg Research alleg","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMCI\">Super Micro Computer </a> shares slumped 33.75% in morning trading on Wednesday after it said Ernst &amp; Young had resigned as its public accounting firm, over a month after Hindenburg Research alleged &#34;accounting manipulation&#34; at the AI server maker.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9b5e45ec9c24dd7c070ef0ad74421591\" tg-width=\"786\" tg-height=\"633\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Ernst &amp; Young in its resignation letter said it was “unwilling to be associated with the financial statements prepared by management.” The accountancy also raised concerns about the board’s independence from CEO Charles Laing and “other members of management.”</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">EY had been hired to audit Super Micro for the first time for the 2024 fiscal year, the company said. Super Micro has still not issued its financial statements for this year, and is reportedly under federal investigation.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The auditor first flagged issues with Super Micro’s internal financial controls, governance and forthcomingness in late July, prompting the server firm to appoint a special board committee to investigate the company’s internal controls.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">“We are resigning due to information that has recently come to our attention which has led us to no longer be able to rely on management’s and the Audit Committee’s representations,” EY said in its resignation letter. EY’s concerns were raised prior to a short-seller report that took aim at Super Micro’s financial controls and accounting practices.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Super Micro has run into trouble with regulators over its accounting practices before. It paid a $17.5 million penalty to the Securities and Exchange Commission in 2020 after the regulator alleged it prematurely and improperly recorded revenue.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The company hired law firm Cooley and a forensic accounting firm to review Super Micro’s internal controls. That review remains ongoing, the company said in a regulatory filing.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Super Micro Shares Tank over 33% as Ernst & Young Resigns as Its Accountant</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSuper Micro Shares Tank over 33% as Ernst & Young Resigns as Its Accountant\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1006801671\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4567337cbdf294b657b1fa87c5488b48);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-10-30 21:38</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMCI\">Super Micro Computer </a> shares slumped 33.75% in morning trading on Wednesday after it said Ernst &amp; Young had resigned as its public accounting firm, over a month after Hindenburg Research alleged &#34;accounting manipulation&#34; at the AI server maker.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9b5e45ec9c24dd7c070ef0ad74421591\" tg-width=\"786\" tg-height=\"633\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Ernst &amp; Young in its resignation letter said it was “unwilling to be associated with the financial statements prepared by management.” The accountancy also raised concerns about the board’s independence from CEO Charles Laing and “other members of management.”</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">EY had been hired to audit Super Micro for the first time for the 2024 fiscal year, the company said. Super Micro has still not issued its financial statements for this year, and is reportedly under federal investigation.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The auditor first flagged issues with Super Micro’s internal financial controls, governance and forthcomingness in late July, prompting the server firm to appoint a special board committee to investigate the company’s internal controls.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">“We are resigning due to information that has recently come to our attention which has led us to no longer be able to rely on management’s and the Audit Committee’s representations,” EY said in its resignation letter. EY’s concerns were raised prior to a short-seller report that took aim at Super Micro’s financial controls and accounting practices.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Super Micro has run into trouble with regulators over its accounting practices before. It paid a $17.5 million penalty to the Securities and Exchange Commission in 2020 after the regulator alleged it prematurely and improperly recorded revenue.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The company hired law firm Cooley and a forensic accounting firm to review Super Micro’s internal controls. That review remains ongoing, the company said in a regulatory filing.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SMCI":"超微电脑"},"source_url":"https://www.streetinsider.com/Corporate+News/Super+Micro+Computers+%28SMCI%29+Certifying+Accountant+Ernst+%26+Young+Resigns/23899201.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1190757025","content_text":"Super Micro Computer  shares slumped 33.75% in morning trading on Wednesday after it said Ernst & Young had resigned as its public accounting firm, over a month after Hindenburg Research alleged \"accounting manipulation\" at the AI server maker.Ernst & Young in its resignation letter said it was “unwilling to be associated with the financial statements prepared by management.” The accountancy also raised concerns about the board’s independence from CEO Charles Laing and “other members of management.”EY had been hired to audit Super Micro for the first time for the 2024 fiscal year, the company said. Super Micro has still not issued its financial statements for this year, and is reportedly under federal investigation.The auditor first flagged issues with Super Micro’s internal financial controls, governance and forthcomingness in late July, prompting the server firm to appoint a special board committee to investigate the company’s internal controls.“We are resigning due to information that has recently come to our attention which has led us to no longer be able to rely on management’s and the Audit Committee’s representations,” EY said in its resignation letter. EY’s concerns were raised prior to a short-seller report that took aim at Super Micro’s financial controls and accounting practices.Super Micro has run into trouble with regulators over its accounting practices before. It paid a $17.5 million penalty to the Securities and Exchange Commission in 2020 after the regulator alleged it prematurely and improperly recorded revenue.The company hired law firm Cooley and a forensic accounting firm to review Super Micro’s internal controls. That review remains ongoing, the company said in a regulatory filing.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":365778005541016,"gmtCreate":1730341381066,"gmtModify":1730341383560,"author":{"id":"4192641781859792","authorId":"4192641781859792","name":"Roy ong and Motorless are gay boy","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4192641781859792","authorIdStr":"4192641781859792"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great article, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great article, would you like to share it?","text":"Great article, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/365778005541016","repostId":"1124461623","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1124461623","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Track stock‘s movements and relevant news","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Stock Track","id":"1086803395","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a81accab1e7ee4144dc051f71903a390"},"pubTimestamp":1730332044,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1124461623?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-10-31 07:47","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Stock Track | Super Micro Computer Stock Plunges Over Auditor Resignation Amid Governance Concerns","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1124461623","media":"Stock Track","summary":"Shares of Super Micro Computer Inc. , a leading provider of high-performance server solutions, plummeted by over 34% in pre-market trading on Tuesday, October 30th, 2024. The sharp decline came after the company's auditor, Ernst & Young , abruptly resigned, citing concerns over governance, transparency, and the ability to rely on representations from Super Micro's management and audit committee.In a letter to Super Micro's audit committee dated October 24th, EY stated that it was resigning due t","content":"<p>Shares of Super Micro Computer Inc. (SMCI), a leading provider of high-performance server solutions, plummeted by over 34% in pre-market trading on Tuesday, October 30th, 2024. The sharp decline came after the company's auditor, Ernst & Young (EY), abruptly resigned, citing concerns over governance, transparency, and the ability to rely on representations from Super Micro's management and audit committee.</p>\n\n<p>In a letter to Super Micro's audit committee dated October 24th, EY stated that it was resigning due to \"information that has recently come to our attention which has led us to no longer be able to rely on management's and the Audit Committee's representations and to be unwilling to be associated with the financial statements prepared by management.\"</p>\n\n<p>EY's resignation has raised serious questions about the integrity of Super Micro's financial reporting and accounting practices. The auditor had previously raised concerns about governance, transparency of communications, and internal controls over financial reporting. In response, Super Micro had appointed a special committee in late July to review these matters, engaging external legal and forensic accounting advisors.</p>","source":"ai_movement_en","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stock Track | Super Micro Computer Stock Plunges Over Auditor Resignation Amid Governance Concerns</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStock Track | Super Micro Computer Stock Plunges Over Auditor Resignation Amid Governance Concerns\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1086803395\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/a81accab1e7ee4144dc051f71903a390);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Stock Track </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-10-31 07:47</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Shares of Super Micro Computer Inc. (SMCI), a leading provider of high-performance server solutions, plummeted by over 34% in pre-market trading on Tuesday, October 30th, 2024. The sharp decline came after the company's auditor, Ernst & Young (EY), abruptly resigned, citing concerns over governance, transparency, and the ability to rely on representations from Super Micro's management and audit committee.</p>\n\n<p>In a letter to Super Micro's audit committee dated October 24th, EY stated that it was resigning due to \"information that has recently come to our attention which has led us to no longer be able to rely on management's and the Audit Committee's representations and to be unwilling to be associated with the financial statements prepared by management.\"</p>\n\n<p>EY's resignation has raised serious questions about the integrity of Super Micro's financial reporting and accounting practices. The auditor had previously raised concerns about governance, transparency of communications, and internal controls over financial reporting. In response, Super Micro had appointed a special committee in late July to review these matters, engaging external legal and forensic accounting advisors.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SMCI":"超微电脑"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1124461623","content_text":"Shares of Super Micro Computer Inc. (SMCI), a leading provider of high-performance server solutions, plummeted by over 34% in pre-market trading on Tuesday, October 30th, 2024. The sharp decline came after the company's auditor, Ernst & Young (EY), abruptly resigned, citing concerns over governance, transparency, and the ability to rely on representations from Super Micro's management and audit committee.\nIn a letter to Super Micro's audit committee dated October 24th, EY stated that it was resigning due to \"information that has recently come to our attention which has led us to no longer be able to rely on management's and the Audit Committee's representations and to be unwilling to be associated with the financial statements prepared by management.\"\nEY's resignation has raised serious questions about the integrity of Super Micro's financial reporting and accounting practices. The auditor had previously raised concerns about governance, transparency of communications, and internal controls over financial reporting. In response, Super Micro had appointed a special committee in late July to review these matters, engaging external legal and forensic accounting advisors.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":364428837994648,"gmtCreate":1729982124460,"gmtModify":1729982128507,"author":{"id":"4192641781859792","authorId":"4192641781859792","name":"Roy ong and Motorless are gay boy","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4192641781859792","authorIdStr":"4192641781859792"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great article, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great article, would you like to share it?","text":"Great article, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/364428837994648","repostId":"1151660016","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1151660016","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Track stock‘s movements and relevant news","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Stock Track","id":"1086803395","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a81accab1e7ee4144dc051f71903a390"},"pubTimestamp":1729901551,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1151660016?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-10-26 08:12","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Stock Track | Canadian Solar Shares Soar 13% on Optimism for 2025 Outlook","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1151660016","media":"Stock Track","summary":"Shares of Canadian Solar Inc.  surged by 13.43% on Thursday, closing at $33.76, as investors grew increasingly bullish about the company's prospects for the upcoming year 2025.The rally comes amid expectations of a potential upcycle in the solar industry, which could provide a tailwind for Canadian Solar's performance. Analysts have highlighted the company's vertically integrated business model, geographical diversification, and significant project pipeline as potential catalysts for growth.Howe","content":"<p>Shares of Canadian Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: CSIQ) surged by 13.43% on Thursday, closing at $33.76, as investors grew increasingly bullish about the company's prospects for the upcoming year 2025.</p>\n\n<p>The rally comes amid expectations of a potential upcycle in the solar industry, which could provide a tailwind for Canadian Solar's performance. Analysts have highlighted the company's vertically integrated business model, geographical diversification, and significant project pipeline as potential catalysts for growth.</p>\n\n<p>However, the optimism is tempered by concerns over competition from Chinese manufacturers, geopolitical tensions, and the cyclical nature of the solar industry. Canadian Solar's significant exposure to China, where much of its production is based, could pose risks if tariffs or trade tensions escalate under a potential Trump presidency.</p>","source":"ai_movement_en","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stock Track | Canadian Solar Shares Soar 13% on Optimism for 2025 Outlook</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStock Track | Canadian Solar Shares Soar 13% on Optimism for 2025 Outlook\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1086803395\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/a81accab1e7ee4144dc051f71903a390);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Stock Track </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-10-26 08:12</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Shares of Canadian Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: CSIQ) surged by 13.43% on Thursday, closing at $33.76, as investors grew increasingly bullish about the company's prospects for the upcoming year 2025.</p>\n\n<p>The rally comes amid expectations of a potential upcycle in the solar industry, which could provide a tailwind for Canadian Solar's performance. Analysts have highlighted the company's vertically integrated business model, geographical diversification, and significant project pipeline as potential catalysts for growth.</p>\n\n<p>However, the optimism is tempered by concerns over competition from Chinese manufacturers, geopolitical tensions, and the cyclical nature of the solar industry. Canadian Solar's significant exposure to China, where much of its production is based, could pose risks if tariffs or trade tensions escalate under a potential Trump presidency.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"CSIQ":"阿特斯太阳能"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1151660016","content_text":"Shares of Canadian Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: CSIQ) surged by 13.43% on Thursday, closing at $33.76, as investors grew increasingly bullish about the company's prospects for the upcoming year 2025.\nThe rally comes amid expectations of a potential upcycle in the solar industry, which could provide a tailwind for Canadian Solar's performance. Analysts have highlighted the company's vertically integrated business model, geographical diversification, and significant project pipeline as potential catalysts for growth.\nHowever, the optimism is tempered by concerns over competition from Chinese manufacturers, geopolitical tensions, and the cyclical nature of the solar industry. Canadian Solar's significant exposure to China, where much of its production is based, could pose risks if tariffs or trade tensions escalate under a potential Trump presidency.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":364357029093544,"gmtCreate":1729964593397,"gmtModify":1729964596290,"author":{"id":"4192641781859792","authorId":"4192641781859792","name":"Roy ong and Motorless are gay boy","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4192641781859792","authorIdStr":"4192641781859792"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/D01.SI\">$DFIRG USD(D01.SI)$&nbsp;</a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/D01.SI\">$DFIRG USD(D01.SI)$&nbsp;</a>&nbsp;","text":"$DFIRG USD(D01.SI)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/364357029093544","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":364349136376048,"gmtCreate":1729962752480,"gmtModify":1729997928488,"author":{"id":"4192641781859792","authorId":"4192641781859792","name":"Roy ong and Motorless are gay boy","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4192641781859792","authorIdStr":"4192641781859792"},"themes":[],"title":"Happy 59th Birthday Singapore!","htmlText":"Find out more here:<a href=\"https://tigr.link/to?data=aHR0cHM6Ly9zZy5ldGFzcGhlcmUuY29tL3NnL21hcmtldGluZy93ZWxjb21lc2cwOD9pc19pbnZpdGU9dHJ1ZSZ1dG1fY2FtcGFpZ249QUMxNzEzMTcxNjA3NzU2dUthcWNRJmFkY29kZT1BQzE3MTMxNjc1NjYxNTRQaGdNQWgmdXRtX21lZGl1bT10aWdlcl9jb21tdW5pdHkmc2tpbj0xJmVkaXRpb249ZnVuZGFtZW50YWwmc2hhcmVJRD1hYzdkNDY0NGIyNWQ5MzNjYWFhN2M3NjAxZjk4MGU1OSZwbGF0Zm9ybT1hbmRyb2lkJmFjY291bnRfZGlzcGxheT1nbG9iYWwmb3JpZ2luYWxfbW9kdWxlPW15X3Byb2ZpbGVfYWN0aXZpdHkmaW52aXRlPUI2QUg1SCZsYW5nPWVuX05aJnV0bV9zb3VyY2U9aW52aXRl\">Happy 59th Birthday Singapore!</a> Join us to receive up to USD 1006 rewards Roy NG LENG HWEE&nbsp;","listText":"Find out more here:<a href=\"https://tigr.link/to?data=aHR0cHM6Ly9zZy5ldGFzcGhlcmUuY29tL3NnL21hcmtldGluZy93ZWxjb21lc2cwOD9pc19pbnZpdGU9dHJ1ZSZ1dG1fY2FtcGFpZ249QUMxNzEzMTcxNjA3NzU2dUthcWNRJmFkY29kZT1BQzE3MTMxNjc1NjYxNTRQaGdNQWgmdXRtX21lZGl1bT10aWdlcl9jb21tdW5pdHkmc2tpbj0xJmVkaXRpb249ZnVuZGFtZW50YWwmc2hhcmVJRD1hYzdkNDY0NGIyNWQ5MzNjYWFhN2M3NjAxZjk4MGU1OSZwbGF0Zm9ybT1hbmRyb2lkJmFjY291bnRfZGlzcGxheT1nbG9iYWwmb3JpZ2luYWxfbW9kdWxlPW15X3Byb2ZpbGVfYWN0aXZpdHkmaW52aXRlPUI2QUg1SCZsYW5nPWVuX05aJnV0bV9zb3VyY2U9aW52aXRl\">Happy 59th Birthday Singapore!</a> Join us to receive up to USD 1006 rewards Roy NG LENG HWEE&nbsp;","text":"Find out more here:Happy 59th Birthday Singapore! Join us to receive up to USD 1006 rewards Roy NG LENG HWEE","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/364349136376048","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":364215818895360,"gmtCreate":1729930116923,"gmtModify":1729930119069,"author":{"id":"4192641781859792","authorId":"4192641781859792","name":"Roy ong and Motorless are gay boy","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4192641781859792","authorIdStr":"4192641781859792"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"SKY NG LENG HWEE&nbsp;","listText":"SKY NG LENG HWEE&nbsp;","text":"SKY NG LENG HWEE","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/364215818895360","repostId":"2475314672","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2475314672","pubTimestamp":1728980883,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2475314672?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-10-15 16:28","market":"fut","language":"en","title":"Amazon: Deep Dive Shows Massive Upside","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2475314672","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"I previously rated Amazon.com, Inc. as a Strong Buy in December 2023 with a price target of $180, which the stock has now reached.Amazon operates in six major segments: 1st Party, 3rd Party, Physical,","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li><p>I previously rated Amazon.com, Inc. as a Strong Buy in December 2023 with a price target of $180, which the stock has now reached.</p></li><li><p>Amazon operates in six major segments: 1st Party, 3rd Party, Physical, Subscriptions, Advertising, and Cloud, each contributing uniquely to its revenue.</p></li><li><p>A Bear- and Bull-Case Discounted Cash Flow Analysis was used to evaluate Amazon, considering growth rates and EBIT-margins for each segment.</p></li><li><p>Given this valuation method, the company could currently be undervalued by up to 117%.</p></li></ul><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3eb2610a8104c2fa1647f9a96f69c969\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\"/></p><p>Julie Clopper</p><p></p><p>In this article, we are revisiting <strong>Amazon.com, Inc.</strong> (NASDAQ:AMZN) from my latest article on AMZN in December 2023, where I rated the company as a Strong Buy with a price target of $180. From this, the stock returned a solid 25% to today&#39;s price, meaning that we are currently pretty much at my then defined price target.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6add3aff830a3ce3585db3c5f1d07607\" tg-width=\"297\" tg-height=\"413\"/></p><p>My Amazon Stock Coverage (seekingalpha.com)</p><p></p><p>To get a realistic valuation, we briefly analyze every business segment of AMZN, define suitable growth rates and EBIT margins for each segment and finally evaluate the whole company using a Bear- and Bull-Case Discounted Cash Flow Analysis. For more details on the different segments of Amazon and their current operations, please refer to the above-mentioned article.</p><h3 id=\"id_4282393402\">Starting Point</h3><p>Since Amazon isn&#39;t declaring the profitability of each of its business segments, we have to get a bit creative here to get a financial starting point for our following analysis. Amazon is declaring the profitability of the AWS (Cloud) segment separately from the rest, meaning we can at least use this as the first anchoring point. Since subscriptions, 1st and 3rd party are connected through offerings like free shipping with Amazon Prime, I tried to at least find a suitable profitability metric for the advertisement segment of Amazon. The two main competitors in the advertising space, Google (GOOG) (GOOGL) and Meta (META), are currently having EBIT margins in the range of 25% to 40%. For our starting point, I assumed an EBIT margin of 25% in Amazon&#39;s advertisement segment.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/720ac9939c6602941b7d6abc456bffac\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"439\"/></p><p>Data by YCharts</p><p></p><p>To then get close to the stated EBIT of each year, I then broke down the remaining EBIT on the remaining business sectors for each financial year. Because some segments overlap, it is exceedingly difficult to forecast exact measurements in this case. These measurements, however, simply represent the beginning of each segment.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a2de9bc4277966ab3fcd52b5a64c3762\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"57\"/></p><p>Assumptions Starting Point (own assumptions)</p><p></p><h2 id=\"id_1968806287\">eCommerce (1st and 3rd Party)</h2><p>The eCommerce market is expected to grow at a CAGR of ~9.5% over the various markets until 2029.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/22779c48593812f88244e1b6515bc0a3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"248\"/></p><p>eCommerce Growth per Region 2024 to 2029 (statista.com)</p><p></p><p>If we factor in the increasing priority of 3rd party at Amazon, we can assume the following growth rates for the eCommerce business segments.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b8b262603df9e0597e30ccbf9d9d345b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"388\"/></p><p>Amazon 1st vs. 3rd party sales (statista.com)</p><p></p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/58bed054f059a5a604d0670d32bb4740\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"400\"/></p><p>Amazon share of 3rd party sales of the years (statista.com)</p><p></p><h4 id=\"id_2376152078\">1st Party</h4><p>Bear: 3% p.a.</p><p>Bull: 5% p.a.</p><h4 id=\"id_230580202\">3rd Party</h4><p>Bear: 10% p.a.</p><p>Bull: 15% p.a.</p><p>These seem rather conservative, factoring in the latest growth rates in the 3rd party segment of 13.9% in 2022 and 19% in 2023.</p><p>The average net margin for the online retail is right around 7%.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ff011eb64a8b9c005b559b9d5e83f4f6\" tg-width=\"935\" tg-height=\"518\"/></p><p>Average net margin per business segment 2022 (statista.com)</p><p></p><p>I think given this metric, we can assume the following margin development for the 1st party from the above defined starting point.</p><table style=\"border-collapse:collapse;\"><tbody><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>EBIT Margin 1st</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2023</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2024</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2025</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2026</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2027</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2028</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2029</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2030</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2031</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Bear</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-6%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-3%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>0%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>4%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>5%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>5%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>5%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>5%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Bull</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-6%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>0%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2.5%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>5%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>7.5%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>7.5%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>7.5%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>7.5%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>7.5%</p></td></tr></tbody></table><p>Click to enlarge</p><p>Taking a look at the 3rd party margins, it becomes apparent why Amazon is increasingly focusing in this segment. The margins of the two main competitors, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EBAY\">eBay</a> (EBAY) and Etsy (ETSY), are currently sitting right around 10% to 38%. While the average of eBay over the last few years was more right around 25%.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4e2e98890cdc59162e269256a1c0eee9\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"439\"/></p><p>Data by YCharts</p><p></p><p>I think that it is reasonable to assume that Amazon will - eventually - achieve similar margins to eBay, which gives us the following assumptions:</p><table style=\"border-collapse:collapse;\"><tbody><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>EBIT Margin 3rd</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2023</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2024</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2025</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2026</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2027</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2028</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2029</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2030</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2031</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Bear</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>4.5%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>10%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>15%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>15%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>15%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>15%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>15%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>15%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>15%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Bull</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>4.5%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>15%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>25%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>25%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>25%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>25%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>25%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>25%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>25%</p></td></tr></tbody></table><p>Click to enlarge</p><h2 id=\"id_1701601226\">Physical Stores</h2><p>This segment is a slow growth and low margin business for Amazon, taking a look at recent growth rates of this segment and the EBIT-margin of one major competitor, Kroger (KR).</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9d0ed02fce4708cdc028cf6556766ca8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"30\"/></p><p>Amazon Physical Stores Growth(Amazon Quarterly Earnings Q1/23 to Q2/24)</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/526d47eced6c932749b47386d8626529\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"424\"/></p><p>Data by YCharts</p><p></p><p>Keeping this in mind, the following assumptions seem fitting:</p><p>Bear: 3% p.a.</p><p>Bull: 10% p.a.</p><p>Considering the &#34;cashierless&#34; technology of Amazon in this segment, the profitability should improve, giving us the following EBIT assumptions:</p><p>Bear: 5%</p><p>Bull: 10%</p><p>Without wasting more time with this rather unimportant segment, we jump right into the more promising segment subscriptions.</p><h2 id=\"id_3180827049\">Subscriptions</h2><p>The revenue growth rate in this segment is currently at around 11%, a slight decline from historical numbers of ~30%.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/73f19474d7d9242018f447abbce8dc2c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"32\"/></p><p>Amazon Subscriptions Growth (Amazon Quarterly Earnings Q1/23 to Q2/24)</p><p></p><table style=\"border-collapse:collapse;\"><tbody><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>[million USD]</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2018</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2019</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2020</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2021</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2022</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2023</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Revenue</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>14,168</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>19,210</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>25,207</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>31,768</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>35,218</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>40,761</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>YOY Growth</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>46%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>36%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>31%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>26%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>11%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>15%</p></td></tr></tbody></table><p>Click to enlarge</p><p>If we take a look at the whole streaming market, experts are currently projecting a CAGR of 18.7% for the whole market until 2031. Therefore, the following growth rates seem viable:</p><p>Bear: 7.5% p.a.</p><p>Bull: 15% p.a.</p><p>If we now take a look at the margins of the comparable business Netflix (NFLX), the following assumptions for profitability should be suitable:</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9051a799240375842ed05326bdd5ef72\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"424\"/></p><p>Data by YCharts</p><p></p><p>Bear: 15%</p><p>Bull: 25%.</p><h2 id=\"id_1823772008\">Advertising</h2><p>The advertising segment for me is one of the most exciting and compelling business segments of Amazon. If we take a look at the financial metrics, it becomes apparent why I think so.</p><p>The digital advertising spending worldwide is expected to grow at a CAGR of 15.5% until 2030.</p><p>This is already pretty impressive, if we however factor in that Amazon is currently - apart from TikTok - the only major competitor that is gaining market share in this very saturated market, the prospects look even better.</p><p></p><p><social-image src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/10/14/51058349-17289208648740807.png\"></social-image></p><p>Share of major ad-selling companies in digital advertising (statista.com)</p><p></p><p>Given this development, these growth metrics seem fitting for the advertising segment.</p><p>Bear: 10% p.a.</p><p>Bull: 20% p.a.</p><p>Like mentioned at our starting point, the EBIT-margins of Meta and Google are currently at around 25% to 40%, with Google being suppressed by their massive <em>Others</em> segment. More on this issue in my latest Google article. Amazon should be able to at least achieve similar margins or might even be able to surpass these, as their ads are way more targeted towards customers that are already willing to buy something. Since they are already on Amazon&#39;s side surfing for products to buy. Because of this, I came up with the following assumptions:</p><table style=\"border-collapse:collapse;\"><tbody><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>EBIT Margin Ads</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2023</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2024</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2025</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2026</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2027</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2028</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2029</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2030</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2031</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Bear</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>25%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>30%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>30%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>30%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>30%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>30%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>30%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>30%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>30%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Bull</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>25%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>30%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>35%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>40%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>45%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>45%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>45%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>45%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>45%</p></td></tr></tbody></table><p>Click to enlarge</p><h2 id=\"id_1675279717\">Cloud - AWS</h2><p>The global cloud, market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 21.2% from 2024 to 2030. As Amazon is currently maintaining its dominant market share, a growth rate right around the market growth rate looks promising.</p><p></p><p><social-image src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/10/14/51058349-17289214849984775.png\"></social-image></p><p>Cloud Infrastructure Market Share per Quarter (statista.com)</p><p></p><p>Bear: 15% p.a.</p><p>Bull: 20% p.a.</p><p>With our Bull Case, I only projected 20% annual growth because it appears unfeasible to rise beyond the market given the already massive market share and the elevated growth rate of 20% for 8 years.</p><p>For the profitability, I assumed the following metrics:</p><table style=\"border-collapse:collapse;\"><tbody><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>EBIT Margin AWS</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2023</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2024</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2025</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2026</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2027</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2028</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2029</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2030</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2031</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Bear</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>27%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>25%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>25%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>25%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>25%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>25%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>25%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>25%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>25%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Bull</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>27%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>35%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>35%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>35%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>35%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>35%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>35%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>35%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>35%</p></td></tr></tbody></table><p>Click to enlarge</p><h2 id=\"id_1677487832\">Discounted Cash Flow Analysis</h2><p>For our Discounted Cash Flow Analysis (&#34;DCF&#34;), we need a few additional assumptions.</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>Tax Rate:</strong> Here I averaged out the last four years and arrived at an average tax rate of 14.4%.</p></li><li><p><strong>Free Cash Flow Conversion:</strong> I found an appropriate EBIAT to Free Cash Flow Ratio after computing the EBIAT using the tax rate given above. Since 2021 and 2022 appear to be outliers in this case, I averaged out the EBIAT To FCF from 2017 through 2020 and 2023. This gave me a conversion rate of 101%. For an additional margin of safety, I used 85% in the following DCF.</p></li></ul><table style=\"border-collapse:collapse;\"><colgroup><col/></colgroup><tbody><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2017</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2018</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2019</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2020</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2021</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2022</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2023</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>EBIAT</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>3,277</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>11,104</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>12,069</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>20,197</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>21,744</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>10,729</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>31,545</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>EBIAT to FCF</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>154%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>75%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>114%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>54%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-142%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-208%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>117%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>FCF</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>8,307</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>19,400</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>25,800</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>31,020</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-9,069</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-11,569</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>36,800</p></td></tr></tbody></table><p>Click to enlarge</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>WACC:</strong> Here I used 9%, which is also higher than Amazon&#39;s current WACC meaning additional margin of safety.</p></li><li><p><strong>Perpetuity Growth Rate:</strong> Here I used 3%, which is pretty conservative for this company if you ask me.</p></li></ul><h3 id=\"id_4114785257\">Bear-Case</h3><p></p><p><social-image src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/10/13/51058349-1728820166087182.png\"></social-image></p><p>Main Assumptions Amazon Bear-Case (aboutamazon.com; seekingalpha.com; own assumptions)</p><p><social-image src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/10/13/51058349-17288192091753738.png\"></social-image></p><p>DCF Amazon Bear I (aboutamazon.com; seekingalpha.com; own assumptions)</p><p><social-image src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/10/13/51058349-17288192662678003.png\"></social-image></p><p>DCF Amazon Bear II (aboutamazon.com; seekingalpha.com; own assumptions)</p><p></p><p>With our Bear-Case DCF, we get a target share price of ~$150, indicating that the company could currently be overvalued by 20%. However, keep in mind that this factors in decelerating growth rates below-market rates and lower profitability compared to competitors.</p><h2 id=\"id_738275189\">Bull-Case</h2><p></p><p><social-image src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/10/13/51058349-17288201919055088.png\"></social-image></p><p>Main Assumptions Bull-Case (aboutamazon.com; seekingalpha.com; own assumptions)</p><p><social-image src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/10/13/51058349-1728819551935197.png\"></social-image></p><p>DCF Amazon Bull I (aboutamazon.com; seekingalpha.com; own assumptions)</p><p><social-image src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/10/13/51058349-17288196208292644.png\"></social-image></p><p>DCF Amazon Bull II (aboutamazon.com; seekingalpha.com; own assumptions)</p><p></p><p>The Bull-Case indicated a fair value share price of ~$318, which would translate in an undervaluation of a whopping 117%! On the other hand, they include profit margins that are larger than those of their main rivals and growth rates that surpass the market.</p><h2 id=\"id_550457842\">Conclusion</h2><p>If we take a look at the last year of our Bull-Case scenarios, we can clearly see on what segments Amazon should focus on in the upcoming years.</p><p></p><p><social-image src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/10/13/51058349-17288202303395493.png\"></social-image></p><p>2031 Bull-Case Prediction (DCF)</p><p></p><p>The biggest EBIT contributors are the Cloud, Advertising and 3rd Party segment. This is why in the upcoming earnings call (earnings to be released on October 25th), I will lay special emphasis on the relevant metrics in these few segments. I also would prefer if Amazon starts to stop &#34;experiments&#34; like the physical stores and focus on their core growth catalysts.</p><p>With our Bear- and Bull-Case analysis, we get a miss-pricing in the range of -20% to 117%. As always, the truth is probably laying somewhere in between these two scenarios, since some risks, like another lawsuit, can&#39;t really be considered in such an DCF-analysis.</p><p>I nevertheless think that the current valuation is still a very good entry point into Amazon, considering that the assumptions we made are very realistic and could very well exactly play out as expected. That is why I currently rate the Stock a Strong Buy, with a medium term price target of $220.</p><p>If you have read this far, please consider following me for more deep-dives! Thank you so much for reading!</p><p><strong><em>Editor&#39;s Note</em></strong><em>: This article was submitted as part of Seeking Alpha&#39;s</em> <em>Best Value Idea investment competition, which runs through October 14. With cash prizes, this competition -- open to all analysts -- is one you don&#39;t want to miss. If you are interested in becoming an analyst and taking part in the competition,</em> <em>click here</em> <em>to find out more and submit your article today!</em></p><p>Editor&#39;s Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Amazon: Deep Dive Shows Massive Upside</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAmazon: Deep Dive Shows Massive Upside\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-10-15 16:28 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4726684-amazon-deep-dive-shows-massive-upside><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>I previously rated Amazon.com, Inc. as a Strong Buy in December 2023 with a price target of $180, which the stock has now reached.Amazon operates in six major segments: 1st Party, 3rd Party, Physical,...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4726684-amazon-deep-dive-shows-massive-upside\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4561":"索罗斯持仓","IE00BKPKM429.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE0005OL40V9.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A6M\" (USD) INC","IE00BZ1G4Q59.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE US EQUITY SUSTAINABILITY LEADER \"A\"(USD) INC (A)","IE00BK4W5L77.USD":"HSBC GLOBAL FUNDS ICAV US EQUITY INDEX \"HC\" (USD) ACC","LU0061474705.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL DYNAMIC REAL RETURN \"AU\" (USD) ACC","IE00BK4W5M84.HKD":"HSBC GLOBAL FUNDS ICAV US EQUITY INDEX \"HC\" (HKD) ACC","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","IE00BJLML261.HKD":"HSBC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"HCH\" (HKD) ACC","IE00B1BXHZ80.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Appreciation A Acc USD","LU0061475181.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) AMERICAN \"AU\" (USD) ACC","IE00BMPRXQ63.HKD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN NEXT GENERATION CONNECTIVITY FUND \"A\" (HKDHDG) ACC","IE00BFSS8Q28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD-H","BK4592":"伊斯兰概念","IE0009356076.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION \"A2\" (USD) ACC","IE00BJTD4N35.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Long Short Equity A1  Acc SGD-H","IE00B7KXQ091.USD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc USD","AMZN":"亚马逊","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4507":"流媒体概念","IE00BFSS7M15.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD-H","IE0004086264.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4566":"资本集团","IE00B3S45H60.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Multicap Opportunities A Acc SGD-H","IE0004445239.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON US FORTY \"A2\" (USD) ACC","IE00B19Z9505.USD":"美盛-美国大盘成长股A Acc","IE00BJJMRX11.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD","IE00BN29S564.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A3\" (USD) INC","LU0072462426.USD":"贝莱德全球配置 A2","BK4524":"宅经济概念","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","LU0079474960.USD":"联博美国增长基金A","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","LU0082616367.USD":"摩根大通美国科技A（dist）","GB00BDT5M118.USD":"天利环球扩展Alpha基金A Acc","BK4538":"云计算","IE0034235303.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US RESEARCH ENHANCED CORE EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4579":"人工智能","LU0080751232.USD":"富达环球多元动力基金A","LU0061474960.USD":"天利环球焦点基金AU Acc","BK4588":"碎股","IE00BMPRXR70.SGD":"Neuberger Berman 5G Connectivity A Acc SGD-H","IE00BKDWB100.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5H\" (SGDHDG) ACC","BK4122":"互联网与直销零售","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","IE00B775H168.HKD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A5M\" (HKD) INC"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4726684-amazon-deep-dive-shows-massive-upside","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2475314672","content_text":"I previously rated Amazon.com, Inc. as a Strong Buy in December 2023 with a price target of $180, which the stock has now reached.Amazon operates in six major segments: 1st Party, 3rd Party, Physical, Subscriptions, Advertising, and Cloud, each contributing uniquely to its revenue.A Bear- and Bull-Case Discounted Cash Flow Analysis was used to evaluate Amazon, considering growth rates and EBIT-margins for each segment.Given this valuation method, the company could currently be undervalued by up to 117%.Julie ClopperIn this article, we are revisiting Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) from my latest article on AMZN in December 2023, where I rated the company as a Strong Buy with a price target of $180. From this, the stock returned a solid 25% to today's price, meaning that we are currently pretty much at my then defined price target.My Amazon Stock Coverage (seekingalpha.com)To get a realistic valuation, we briefly analyze every business segment of AMZN, define suitable growth rates and EBIT margins for each segment and finally evaluate the whole company using a Bear- and Bull-Case Discounted Cash Flow Analysis. For more details on the different segments of Amazon and their current operations, please refer to the above-mentioned article.Starting PointSince Amazon isn't declaring the profitability of each of its business segments, we have to get a bit creative here to get a financial starting point for our following analysis. Amazon is declaring the profitability of the AWS (Cloud) segment separately from the rest, meaning we can at least use this as the first anchoring point. Since subscriptions, 1st and 3rd party are connected through offerings like free shipping with Amazon Prime, I tried to at least find a suitable profitability metric for the advertisement segment of Amazon. The two main competitors in the advertising space, Google (GOOG) (GOOGL) and Meta (META), are currently having EBIT margins in the range of 25% to 40%. For our starting point, I assumed an EBIT margin of 25% in Amazon's advertisement segment.Data by YChartsTo then get close to the stated EBIT of each year, I then broke down the remaining EBIT on the remaining business sectors for each financial year. Because some segments overlap, it is exceedingly difficult to forecast exact measurements in this case. These measurements, however, simply represent the beginning of each segment.Assumptions Starting Point (own assumptions)eCommerce (1st and 3rd Party)The eCommerce market is expected to grow at a CAGR of ~9.5% over the various markets until 2029.eCommerce Growth per Region 2024 to 2029 (statista.com)If we factor in the increasing priority of 3rd party at Amazon, we can assume the following growth rates for the eCommerce business segments.Amazon 1st vs. 3rd party sales (statista.com)Amazon share of 3rd party sales of the years (statista.com)1st PartyBear: 3% p.a.Bull: 5% p.a.3rd PartyBear: 10% p.a.Bull: 15% p.a.These seem rather conservative, factoring in the latest growth rates in the 3rd party segment of 13.9% in 2022 and 19% in 2023.The average net margin for the online retail is right around 7%.Average net margin per business segment 2022 (statista.com)I think given this metric, we can assume the following margin development for the 1st party from the above defined starting point.EBIT Margin 1st202320242025202620272028202920302031Bear-6%-3%0%2%4%5%5%5%5%Bull-6%0%2.5%5%7.5%7.5%7.5%7.5%7.5%Click to enlargeTaking a look at the 3rd party margins, it becomes apparent why Amazon is increasingly focusing in this segment. The margins of the two main competitors, eBay (EBAY) and Etsy (ETSY), are currently sitting right around 10% to 38%. While the average of eBay over the last few years was more right around 25%.Data by YChartsI think that it is reasonable to assume that Amazon will - eventually - achieve similar margins to eBay, which gives us the following assumptions:EBIT Margin 3rd202320242025202620272028202920302031Bear4.5%10%15%15%15%15%15%15%15%Bull4.5%15%25%25%25%25%25%25%25%Click to enlargePhysical StoresThis segment is a slow growth and low margin business for Amazon, taking a look at recent growth rates of this segment and the EBIT-margin of one major competitor, Kroger (KR).Amazon Physical Stores Growth(Amazon Quarterly Earnings Q1/23 to Q2/24)Data by YChartsKeeping this in mind, the following assumptions seem fitting:Bear: 3% p.a.Bull: 10% p.a.Considering the \"cashierless\" technology of Amazon in this segment, the profitability should improve, giving us the following EBIT assumptions:Bear: 5%Bull: 10%Without wasting more time with this rather unimportant segment, we jump right into the more promising segment subscriptions.SubscriptionsThe revenue growth rate in this segment is currently at around 11%, a slight decline from historical numbers of ~30%.Amazon Subscriptions Growth (Amazon Quarterly Earnings Q1/23 to Q2/24)[million USD]201820192020202120222023Revenue14,16819,21025,20731,76835,21840,761YOY Growth46%36%31%26%11%15%Click to enlargeIf we take a look at the whole streaming market, experts are currently projecting a CAGR of 18.7% for the whole market until 2031. Therefore, the following growth rates seem viable:Bear: 7.5% p.a.Bull: 15% p.a.If we now take a look at the margins of the comparable business Netflix (NFLX), the following assumptions for profitability should be suitable:Data by YChartsBear: 15%Bull: 25%.AdvertisingThe advertising segment for me is one of the most exciting and compelling business segments of Amazon. If we take a look at the financial metrics, it becomes apparent why I think so.The digital advertising spending worldwide is expected to grow at a CAGR of 15.5% until 2030.This is already pretty impressive, if we however factor in that Amazon is currently - apart from TikTok - the only major competitor that is gaining market share in this very saturated market, the prospects look even better.Share of major ad-selling companies in digital advertising (statista.com)Given this development, these growth metrics seem fitting for the advertising segment.Bear: 10% p.a.Bull: 20% p.a.Like mentioned at our starting point, the EBIT-margins of Meta and Google are currently at around 25% to 40%, with Google being suppressed by their massive Others segment. More on this issue in my latest Google article. Amazon should be able to at least achieve similar margins or might even be able to surpass these, as their ads are way more targeted towards customers that are already willing to buy something. Since they are already on Amazon's side surfing for products to buy. Because of this, I came up with the following assumptions:EBIT Margin Ads202320242025202620272028202920302031Bear25%30%30%30%30%30%30%30%30%Bull25%30%35%40%45%45%45%45%45%Click to enlargeCloud - AWSThe global cloud, market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 21.2% from 2024 to 2030. As Amazon is currently maintaining its dominant market share, a growth rate right around the market growth rate looks promising.Cloud Infrastructure Market Share per Quarter (statista.com)Bear: 15% p.a.Bull: 20% p.a.With our Bull Case, I only projected 20% annual growth because it appears unfeasible to rise beyond the market given the already massive market share and the elevated growth rate of 20% for 8 years.For the profitability, I assumed the following metrics:EBIT Margin AWS202320242025202620272028202920302031Bear27%25%25%25%25%25%25%25%25%Bull27%35%35%35%35%35%35%35%35%Click to enlargeDiscounted Cash Flow AnalysisFor our Discounted Cash Flow Analysis (\"DCF\"), we need a few additional assumptions.Tax Rate: Here I averaged out the last four years and arrived at an average tax rate of 14.4%.Free Cash Flow Conversion: I found an appropriate EBIAT to Free Cash Flow Ratio after computing the EBIAT using the tax rate given above. Since 2021 and 2022 appear to be outliers in this case, I averaged out the EBIAT To FCF from 2017 through 2020 and 2023. This gave me a conversion rate of 101%. For an additional margin of safety, I used 85% in the following DCF.2017201820192020202120222023EBIAT3,27711,10412,06920,19721,74410,72931,545EBIAT to FCF154%75%114%54%-142%-208%117%FCF8,30719,40025,80031,020-9,069-11,56936,800Click to enlargeWACC: Here I used 9%, which is also higher than Amazon's current WACC meaning additional margin of safety.Perpetuity Growth Rate: Here I used 3%, which is pretty conservative for this company if you ask me.Bear-CaseMain Assumptions Amazon Bear-Case (aboutamazon.com; seekingalpha.com; own assumptions)DCF Amazon Bear I (aboutamazon.com; seekingalpha.com; own assumptions)DCF Amazon Bear II (aboutamazon.com; seekingalpha.com; own assumptions)With our Bear-Case DCF, we get a target share price of ~$150, indicating that the company could currently be overvalued by 20%. However, keep in mind that this factors in decelerating growth rates below-market rates and lower profitability compared to competitors.Bull-CaseMain Assumptions Bull-Case (aboutamazon.com; seekingalpha.com; own assumptions)DCF Amazon Bull I (aboutamazon.com; seekingalpha.com; own assumptions)DCF Amazon Bull II (aboutamazon.com; seekingalpha.com; own assumptions)The Bull-Case indicated a fair value share price of ~$318, which would translate in an undervaluation of a whopping 117%! On the other hand, they include profit margins that are larger than those of their main rivals and growth rates that surpass the market.ConclusionIf we take a look at the last year of our Bull-Case scenarios, we can clearly see on what segments Amazon should focus on in the upcoming years.2031 Bull-Case Prediction (DCF)The biggest EBIT contributors are the Cloud, Advertising and 3rd Party segment. This is why in the upcoming earnings call (earnings to be released on October 25th), I will lay special emphasis on the relevant metrics in these few segments. I also would prefer if Amazon starts to stop \"experiments\" like the physical stores and focus on their core growth catalysts.With our Bear- and Bull-Case analysis, we get a miss-pricing in the range of -20% to 117%. As always, the truth is probably laying somewhere in between these two scenarios, since some risks, like another lawsuit, can't really be considered in such an DCF-analysis.I nevertheless think that the current valuation is still a very good entry point into Amazon, considering that the assumptions we made are very realistic and could very well exactly play out as expected. That is why I currently rate the Stock a Strong Buy, with a medium term price target of $220.If you have read this far, please consider following me for more deep-dives! Thank you so much for reading!Editor's Note: This article was submitted as part of Seeking Alpha's Best Value Idea investment competition, which runs through October 14. With cash prizes, this competition -- open to all analysts -- is one you don't want to miss. If you are interested in becoming an analyst and taking part in the competition, click here to find out more and submit your article today!Editor's Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":364215691161792,"gmtCreate":1729930087343,"gmtModify":1729930089724,"author":{"id":"4192641781859792","authorId":"4192641781859792","name":"Roy ong and Motorless are gay boy","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4192641781859792","authorIdStr":"4192641781859792"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"SKY NG LENG HWEE&nbsp;","listText":"SKY NG LENG HWEE&nbsp;","text":"SKY NG LENG HWEE","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/364215691161792","repostId":"2475314672","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2475314672","pubTimestamp":1728980883,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2475314672?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-10-15 16:28","market":"fut","language":"en","title":"Amazon: Deep Dive Shows Massive Upside","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2475314672","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"I previously rated Amazon.com, Inc. as a Strong Buy in December 2023 with a price target of $180, which the stock has now reached.Amazon operates in six major segments: 1st Party, 3rd Party, Physical,","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li><p>I previously rated Amazon.com, Inc. as a Strong Buy in December 2023 with a price target of $180, which the stock has now reached.</p></li><li><p>Amazon operates in six major segments: 1st Party, 3rd Party, Physical, Subscriptions, Advertising, and Cloud, each contributing uniquely to its revenue.</p></li><li><p>A Bear- and Bull-Case Discounted Cash Flow Analysis was used to evaluate Amazon, considering growth rates and EBIT-margins for each segment.</p></li><li><p>Given this valuation method, the company could currently be undervalued by up to 117%.</p></li></ul><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3eb2610a8104c2fa1647f9a96f69c969\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\"/></p><p>Julie Clopper</p><p></p><p>In this article, we are revisiting <strong>Amazon.com, Inc.</strong> (NASDAQ:AMZN) from my latest article on AMZN in December 2023, where I rated the company as a Strong Buy with a price target of $180. From this, the stock returned a solid 25% to today&#39;s price, meaning that we are currently pretty much at my then defined price target.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6add3aff830a3ce3585db3c5f1d07607\" tg-width=\"297\" tg-height=\"413\"/></p><p>My Amazon Stock Coverage (seekingalpha.com)</p><p></p><p>To get a realistic valuation, we briefly analyze every business segment of AMZN, define suitable growth rates and EBIT margins for each segment and finally evaluate the whole company using a Bear- and Bull-Case Discounted Cash Flow Analysis. For more details on the different segments of Amazon and their current operations, please refer to the above-mentioned article.</p><h3 id=\"id_4282393402\">Starting Point</h3><p>Since Amazon isn&#39;t declaring the profitability of each of its business segments, we have to get a bit creative here to get a financial starting point for our following analysis. Amazon is declaring the profitability of the AWS (Cloud) segment separately from the rest, meaning we can at least use this as the first anchoring point. Since subscriptions, 1st and 3rd party are connected through offerings like free shipping with Amazon Prime, I tried to at least find a suitable profitability metric for the advertisement segment of Amazon. The two main competitors in the advertising space, Google (GOOG) (GOOGL) and Meta (META), are currently having EBIT margins in the range of 25% to 40%. For our starting point, I assumed an EBIT margin of 25% in Amazon&#39;s advertisement segment.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/720ac9939c6602941b7d6abc456bffac\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"439\"/></p><p>Data by YCharts</p><p></p><p>To then get close to the stated EBIT of each year, I then broke down the remaining EBIT on the remaining business sectors for each financial year. Because some segments overlap, it is exceedingly difficult to forecast exact measurements in this case. These measurements, however, simply represent the beginning of each segment.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a2de9bc4277966ab3fcd52b5a64c3762\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"57\"/></p><p>Assumptions Starting Point (own assumptions)</p><p></p><h2 id=\"id_1968806287\">eCommerce (1st and 3rd Party)</h2><p>The eCommerce market is expected to grow at a CAGR of ~9.5% over the various markets until 2029.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/22779c48593812f88244e1b6515bc0a3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"248\"/></p><p>eCommerce Growth per Region 2024 to 2029 (statista.com)</p><p></p><p>If we factor in the increasing priority of 3rd party at Amazon, we can assume the following growth rates for the eCommerce business segments.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b8b262603df9e0597e30ccbf9d9d345b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"388\"/></p><p>Amazon 1st vs. 3rd party sales (statista.com)</p><p></p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/58bed054f059a5a604d0670d32bb4740\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"400\"/></p><p>Amazon share of 3rd party sales of the years (statista.com)</p><p></p><h4 id=\"id_2376152078\">1st Party</h4><p>Bear: 3% p.a.</p><p>Bull: 5% p.a.</p><h4 id=\"id_230580202\">3rd Party</h4><p>Bear: 10% p.a.</p><p>Bull: 15% p.a.</p><p>These seem rather conservative, factoring in the latest growth rates in the 3rd party segment of 13.9% in 2022 and 19% in 2023.</p><p>The average net margin for the online retail is right around 7%.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ff011eb64a8b9c005b559b9d5e83f4f6\" tg-width=\"935\" tg-height=\"518\"/></p><p>Average net margin per business segment 2022 (statista.com)</p><p></p><p>I think given this metric, we can assume the following margin development for the 1st party from the above defined starting point.</p><table style=\"border-collapse:collapse;\"><tbody><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>EBIT Margin 1st</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2023</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2024</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2025</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2026</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2027</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2028</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2029</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2030</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2031</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Bear</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-6%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-3%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>0%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>4%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>5%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>5%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>5%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>5%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Bull</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-6%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>0%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2.5%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>5%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>7.5%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>7.5%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>7.5%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>7.5%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>7.5%</p></td></tr></tbody></table><p>Click to enlarge</p><p>Taking a look at the 3rd party margins, it becomes apparent why Amazon is increasingly focusing in this segment. The margins of the two main competitors, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EBAY\">eBay</a> (EBAY) and Etsy (ETSY), are currently sitting right around 10% to 38%. While the average of eBay over the last few years was more right around 25%.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4e2e98890cdc59162e269256a1c0eee9\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"439\"/></p><p>Data by YCharts</p><p></p><p>I think that it is reasonable to assume that Amazon will - eventually - achieve similar margins to eBay, which gives us the following assumptions:</p><table style=\"border-collapse:collapse;\"><tbody><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>EBIT Margin 3rd</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2023</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2024</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2025</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2026</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2027</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2028</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2029</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2030</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2031</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Bear</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>4.5%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>10%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>15%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>15%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>15%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>15%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>15%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>15%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>15%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Bull</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>4.5%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>15%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>25%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>25%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>25%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>25%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>25%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>25%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>25%</p></td></tr></tbody></table><p>Click to enlarge</p><h2 id=\"id_1701601226\">Physical Stores</h2><p>This segment is a slow growth and low margin business for Amazon, taking a look at recent growth rates of this segment and the EBIT-margin of one major competitor, Kroger (KR).</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9d0ed02fce4708cdc028cf6556766ca8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"30\"/></p><p>Amazon Physical Stores Growth(Amazon Quarterly Earnings Q1/23 to Q2/24)</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/526d47eced6c932749b47386d8626529\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"424\"/></p><p>Data by YCharts</p><p></p><p>Keeping this in mind, the following assumptions seem fitting:</p><p>Bear: 3% p.a.</p><p>Bull: 10% p.a.</p><p>Considering the &#34;cashierless&#34; technology of Amazon in this segment, the profitability should improve, giving us the following EBIT assumptions:</p><p>Bear: 5%</p><p>Bull: 10%</p><p>Without wasting more time with this rather unimportant segment, we jump right into the more promising segment subscriptions.</p><h2 id=\"id_3180827049\">Subscriptions</h2><p>The revenue growth rate in this segment is currently at around 11%, a slight decline from historical numbers of ~30%.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/73f19474d7d9242018f447abbce8dc2c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"32\"/></p><p>Amazon Subscriptions Growth (Amazon Quarterly Earnings Q1/23 to Q2/24)</p><p></p><table style=\"border-collapse:collapse;\"><tbody><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>[million USD]</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2018</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2019</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2020</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2021</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2022</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2023</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Revenue</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>14,168</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>19,210</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>25,207</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>31,768</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>35,218</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>40,761</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>YOY Growth</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>46%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>36%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>31%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>26%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>11%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>15%</p></td></tr></tbody></table><p>Click to enlarge</p><p>If we take a look at the whole streaming market, experts are currently projecting a CAGR of 18.7% for the whole market until 2031. Therefore, the following growth rates seem viable:</p><p>Bear: 7.5% p.a.</p><p>Bull: 15% p.a.</p><p>If we now take a look at the margins of the comparable business Netflix (NFLX), the following assumptions for profitability should be suitable:</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9051a799240375842ed05326bdd5ef72\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"424\"/></p><p>Data by YCharts</p><p></p><p>Bear: 15%</p><p>Bull: 25%.</p><h2 id=\"id_1823772008\">Advertising</h2><p>The advertising segment for me is one of the most exciting and compelling business segments of Amazon. If we take a look at the financial metrics, it becomes apparent why I think so.</p><p>The digital advertising spending worldwide is expected to grow at a CAGR of 15.5% until 2030.</p><p>This is already pretty impressive, if we however factor in that Amazon is currently - apart from TikTok - the only major competitor that is gaining market share in this very saturated market, the prospects look even better.</p><p></p><p><social-image src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/10/14/51058349-17289208648740807.png\"></social-image></p><p>Share of major ad-selling companies in digital advertising (statista.com)</p><p></p><p>Given this development, these growth metrics seem fitting for the advertising segment.</p><p>Bear: 10% p.a.</p><p>Bull: 20% p.a.</p><p>Like mentioned at our starting point, the EBIT-margins of Meta and Google are currently at around 25% to 40%, with Google being suppressed by their massive <em>Others</em> segment. More on this issue in my latest Google article. Amazon should be able to at least achieve similar margins or might even be able to surpass these, as their ads are way more targeted towards customers that are already willing to buy something. Since they are already on Amazon&#39;s side surfing for products to buy. Because of this, I came up with the following assumptions:</p><table style=\"border-collapse:collapse;\"><tbody><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>EBIT Margin Ads</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2023</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2024</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2025</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2026</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2027</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2028</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2029</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2030</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2031</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Bear</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>25%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>30%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>30%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>30%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>30%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>30%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>30%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>30%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>30%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Bull</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>25%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>30%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>35%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>40%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>45%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>45%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>45%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>45%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>45%</p></td></tr></tbody></table><p>Click to enlarge</p><h2 id=\"id_1675279717\">Cloud - AWS</h2><p>The global cloud, market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 21.2% from 2024 to 2030. As Amazon is currently maintaining its dominant market share, a growth rate right around the market growth rate looks promising.</p><p></p><p><social-image src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/10/14/51058349-17289214849984775.png\"></social-image></p><p>Cloud Infrastructure Market Share per Quarter (statista.com)</p><p></p><p>Bear: 15% p.a.</p><p>Bull: 20% p.a.</p><p>With our Bull Case, I only projected 20% annual growth because it appears unfeasible to rise beyond the market given the already massive market share and the elevated growth rate of 20% for 8 years.</p><p>For the profitability, I assumed the following metrics:</p><table style=\"border-collapse:collapse;\"><tbody><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>EBIT Margin AWS</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2023</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2024</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2025</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2026</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2027</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2028</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2029</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2030</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2031</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Bear</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>27%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>25%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>25%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>25%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>25%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>25%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>25%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>25%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>25%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Bull</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>27%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>35%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>35%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>35%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>35%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>35%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>35%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>35%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>35%</p></td></tr></tbody></table><p>Click to enlarge</p><h2 id=\"id_1677487832\">Discounted Cash Flow Analysis</h2><p>For our Discounted Cash Flow Analysis (&#34;DCF&#34;), we need a few additional assumptions.</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>Tax Rate:</strong> Here I averaged out the last four years and arrived at an average tax rate of 14.4%.</p></li><li><p><strong>Free Cash Flow Conversion:</strong> I found an appropriate EBIAT to Free Cash Flow Ratio after computing the EBIAT using the tax rate given above. Since 2021 and 2022 appear to be outliers in this case, I averaged out the EBIAT To FCF from 2017 through 2020 and 2023. This gave me a conversion rate of 101%. For an additional margin of safety, I used 85% in the following DCF.</p></li></ul><table style=\"border-collapse:collapse;\"><colgroup><col/></colgroup><tbody><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2017</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2018</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2019</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2020</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2021</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2022</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2023</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>EBIAT</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>3,277</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>11,104</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>12,069</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>20,197</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>21,744</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>10,729</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>31,545</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>EBIAT to FCF</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>154%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>75%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>114%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>54%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-142%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-208%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>117%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>FCF</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>8,307</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>19,400</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>25,800</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>31,020</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-9,069</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-11,569</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>36,800</p></td></tr></tbody></table><p>Click to enlarge</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>WACC:</strong> Here I used 9%, which is also higher than Amazon&#39;s current WACC meaning additional margin of safety.</p></li><li><p><strong>Perpetuity Growth Rate:</strong> Here I used 3%, which is pretty conservative for this company if you ask me.</p></li></ul><h3 id=\"id_4114785257\">Bear-Case</h3><p></p><p><social-image src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/10/13/51058349-1728820166087182.png\"></social-image></p><p>Main Assumptions Amazon Bear-Case (aboutamazon.com; seekingalpha.com; own assumptions)</p><p><social-image src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/10/13/51058349-17288192091753738.png\"></social-image></p><p>DCF Amazon Bear I (aboutamazon.com; seekingalpha.com; own assumptions)</p><p><social-image src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/10/13/51058349-17288192662678003.png\"></social-image></p><p>DCF Amazon Bear II (aboutamazon.com; seekingalpha.com; own assumptions)</p><p></p><p>With our Bear-Case DCF, we get a target share price of ~$150, indicating that the company could currently be overvalued by 20%. However, keep in mind that this factors in decelerating growth rates below-market rates and lower profitability compared to competitors.</p><h2 id=\"id_738275189\">Bull-Case</h2><p></p><p><social-image src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/10/13/51058349-17288201919055088.png\"></social-image></p><p>Main Assumptions Bull-Case (aboutamazon.com; seekingalpha.com; own assumptions)</p><p><social-image src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/10/13/51058349-1728819551935197.png\"></social-image></p><p>DCF Amazon Bull I (aboutamazon.com; seekingalpha.com; own assumptions)</p><p><social-image src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/10/13/51058349-17288196208292644.png\"></social-image></p><p>DCF Amazon Bull II (aboutamazon.com; seekingalpha.com; own assumptions)</p><p></p><p>The Bull-Case indicated a fair value share price of ~$318, which would translate in an undervaluation of a whopping 117%! On the other hand, they include profit margins that are larger than those of their main rivals and growth rates that surpass the market.</p><h2 id=\"id_550457842\">Conclusion</h2><p>If we take a look at the last year of our Bull-Case scenarios, we can clearly see on what segments Amazon should focus on in the upcoming years.</p><p></p><p><social-image src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/10/13/51058349-17288202303395493.png\"></social-image></p><p>2031 Bull-Case Prediction (DCF)</p><p></p><p>The biggest EBIT contributors are the Cloud, Advertising and 3rd Party segment. This is why in the upcoming earnings call (earnings to be released on October 25th), I will lay special emphasis on the relevant metrics in these few segments. I also would prefer if Amazon starts to stop &#34;experiments&#34; like the physical stores and focus on their core growth catalysts.</p><p>With our Bear- and Bull-Case analysis, we get a miss-pricing in the range of -20% to 117%. As always, the truth is probably laying somewhere in between these two scenarios, since some risks, like another lawsuit, can&#39;t really be considered in such an DCF-analysis.</p><p>I nevertheless think that the current valuation is still a very good entry point into Amazon, considering that the assumptions we made are very realistic and could very well exactly play out as expected. That is why I currently rate the Stock a Strong Buy, with a medium term price target of $220.</p><p>If you have read this far, please consider following me for more deep-dives! Thank you so much for reading!</p><p><strong><em>Editor&#39;s Note</em></strong><em>: This article was submitted as part of Seeking Alpha&#39;s</em> <em>Best Value Idea investment competition, which runs through October 14. With cash prizes, this competition -- open to all analysts -- is one you don&#39;t want to miss. If you are interested in becoming an analyst and taking part in the competition,</em> <em>click here</em> <em>to find out more and submit your article today!</em></p><p>Editor&#39;s Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Amazon: Deep Dive Shows Massive Upside</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAmazon: Deep Dive Shows Massive Upside\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-10-15 16:28 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4726684-amazon-deep-dive-shows-massive-upside><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>I previously rated Amazon.com, Inc. as a Strong Buy in December 2023 with a price target of $180, which the stock has now reached.Amazon operates in six major segments: 1st Party, 3rd Party, Physical,...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4726684-amazon-deep-dive-shows-massive-upside\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4561":"索罗斯持仓","IE00BKPKM429.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE0005OL40V9.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A6M\" (USD) INC","IE00BZ1G4Q59.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE US EQUITY SUSTAINABILITY LEADER \"A\"(USD) INC (A)","IE00BK4W5L77.USD":"HSBC GLOBAL FUNDS ICAV US EQUITY INDEX \"HC\" (USD) ACC","LU0061474705.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL DYNAMIC REAL RETURN \"AU\" (USD) ACC","IE00BK4W5M84.HKD":"HSBC GLOBAL FUNDS ICAV US EQUITY INDEX \"HC\" (HKD) ACC","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","IE00BJLML261.HKD":"HSBC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"HCH\" (HKD) ACC","IE00B1BXHZ80.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Appreciation A Acc USD","LU0061475181.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) AMERICAN \"AU\" (USD) ACC","IE00BMPRXQ63.HKD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN NEXT GENERATION CONNECTIVITY FUND \"A\" (HKDHDG) ACC","IE00BFSS8Q28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD-H","BK4592":"伊斯兰概念","IE0009356076.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION \"A2\" (USD) ACC","IE00BJTD4N35.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Long Short Equity A1  Acc SGD-H","IE00B7KXQ091.USD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc USD","AMZN":"亚马逊","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4507":"流媒体概念","IE00BFSS7M15.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD-H","IE0004086264.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4566":"资本集团","IE00B3S45H60.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Multicap Opportunities A Acc SGD-H","IE0004445239.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON US FORTY \"A2\" (USD) ACC","IE00B19Z9505.USD":"美盛-美国大盘成长股A Acc","IE00BJJMRX11.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD","IE00BN29S564.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A3\" (USD) INC","LU0072462426.USD":"贝莱德全球配置 A2","BK4524":"宅经济概念","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","LU0079474960.USD":"联博美国增长基金A","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","LU0082616367.USD":"摩根大通美国科技A（dist）","GB00BDT5M118.USD":"天利环球扩展Alpha基金A Acc","BK4538":"云计算","IE0034235303.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US RESEARCH ENHANCED CORE EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4579":"人工智能","LU0080751232.USD":"富达环球多元动力基金A","LU0061474960.USD":"天利环球焦点基金AU Acc","BK4588":"碎股","IE00BMPRXR70.SGD":"Neuberger Berman 5G Connectivity A Acc SGD-H","IE00BKDWB100.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5H\" (SGDHDG) ACC","BK4122":"互联网与直销零售","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","IE00B775H168.HKD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A5M\" (HKD) INC"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4726684-amazon-deep-dive-shows-massive-upside","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2475314672","content_text":"I previously rated Amazon.com, Inc. as a Strong Buy in December 2023 with a price target of $180, which the stock has now reached.Amazon operates in six major segments: 1st Party, 3rd Party, Physical, Subscriptions, Advertising, and Cloud, each contributing uniquely to its revenue.A Bear- and Bull-Case Discounted Cash Flow Analysis was used to evaluate Amazon, considering growth rates and EBIT-margins for each segment.Given this valuation method, the company could currently be undervalued by up to 117%.Julie ClopperIn this article, we are revisiting Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) from my latest article on AMZN in December 2023, where I rated the company as a Strong Buy with a price target of $180. From this, the stock returned a solid 25% to today's price, meaning that we are currently pretty much at my then defined price target.My Amazon Stock Coverage (seekingalpha.com)To get a realistic valuation, we briefly analyze every business segment of AMZN, define suitable growth rates and EBIT margins for each segment and finally evaluate the whole company using a Bear- and Bull-Case Discounted Cash Flow Analysis. For more details on the different segments of Amazon and their current operations, please refer to the above-mentioned article.Starting PointSince Amazon isn't declaring the profitability of each of its business segments, we have to get a bit creative here to get a financial starting point for our following analysis. Amazon is declaring the profitability of the AWS (Cloud) segment separately from the rest, meaning we can at least use this as the first anchoring point. Since subscriptions, 1st and 3rd party are connected through offerings like free shipping with Amazon Prime, I tried to at least find a suitable profitability metric for the advertisement segment of Amazon. The two main competitors in the advertising space, Google (GOOG) (GOOGL) and Meta (META), are currently having EBIT margins in the range of 25% to 40%. For our starting point, I assumed an EBIT margin of 25% in Amazon's advertisement segment.Data by YChartsTo then get close to the stated EBIT of each year, I then broke down the remaining EBIT on the remaining business sectors for each financial year. Because some segments overlap, it is exceedingly difficult to forecast exact measurements in this case. These measurements, however, simply represent the beginning of each segment.Assumptions Starting Point (own assumptions)eCommerce (1st and 3rd Party)The eCommerce market is expected to grow at a CAGR of ~9.5% over the various markets until 2029.eCommerce Growth per Region 2024 to 2029 (statista.com)If we factor in the increasing priority of 3rd party at Amazon, we can assume the following growth rates for the eCommerce business segments.Amazon 1st vs. 3rd party sales (statista.com)Amazon share of 3rd party sales of the years (statista.com)1st PartyBear: 3% p.a.Bull: 5% p.a.3rd PartyBear: 10% p.a.Bull: 15% p.a.These seem rather conservative, factoring in the latest growth rates in the 3rd party segment of 13.9% in 2022 and 19% in 2023.The average net margin for the online retail is right around 7%.Average net margin per business segment 2022 (statista.com)I think given this metric, we can assume the following margin development for the 1st party from the above defined starting point.EBIT Margin 1st202320242025202620272028202920302031Bear-6%-3%0%2%4%5%5%5%5%Bull-6%0%2.5%5%7.5%7.5%7.5%7.5%7.5%Click to enlargeTaking a look at the 3rd party margins, it becomes apparent why Amazon is increasingly focusing in this segment. The margins of the two main competitors, eBay (EBAY) and Etsy (ETSY), are currently sitting right around 10% to 38%. While the average of eBay over the last few years was more right around 25%.Data by YChartsI think that it is reasonable to assume that Amazon will - eventually - achieve similar margins to eBay, which gives us the following assumptions:EBIT Margin 3rd202320242025202620272028202920302031Bear4.5%10%15%15%15%15%15%15%15%Bull4.5%15%25%25%25%25%25%25%25%Click to enlargePhysical StoresThis segment is a slow growth and low margin business for Amazon, taking a look at recent growth rates of this segment and the EBIT-margin of one major competitor, Kroger (KR).Amazon Physical Stores Growth(Amazon Quarterly Earnings Q1/23 to Q2/24)Data by YChartsKeeping this in mind, the following assumptions seem fitting:Bear: 3% p.a.Bull: 10% p.a.Considering the \"cashierless\" technology of Amazon in this segment, the profitability should improve, giving us the following EBIT assumptions:Bear: 5%Bull: 10%Without wasting more time with this rather unimportant segment, we jump right into the more promising segment subscriptions.SubscriptionsThe revenue growth rate in this segment is currently at around 11%, a slight decline from historical numbers of ~30%.Amazon Subscriptions Growth (Amazon Quarterly Earnings Q1/23 to Q2/24)[million USD]201820192020202120222023Revenue14,16819,21025,20731,76835,21840,761YOY Growth46%36%31%26%11%15%Click to enlargeIf we take a look at the whole streaming market, experts are currently projecting a CAGR of 18.7% for the whole market until 2031. Therefore, the following growth rates seem viable:Bear: 7.5% p.a.Bull: 15% p.a.If we now take a look at the margins of the comparable business Netflix (NFLX), the following assumptions for profitability should be suitable:Data by YChartsBear: 15%Bull: 25%.AdvertisingThe advertising segment for me is one of the most exciting and compelling business segments of Amazon. If we take a look at the financial metrics, it becomes apparent why I think so.The digital advertising spending worldwide is expected to grow at a CAGR of 15.5% until 2030.This is already pretty impressive, if we however factor in that Amazon is currently - apart from TikTok - the only major competitor that is gaining market share in this very saturated market, the prospects look even better.Share of major ad-selling companies in digital advertising (statista.com)Given this development, these growth metrics seem fitting for the advertising segment.Bear: 10% p.a.Bull: 20% p.a.Like mentioned at our starting point, the EBIT-margins of Meta and Google are currently at around 25% to 40%, with Google being suppressed by their massive Others segment. More on this issue in my latest Google article. Amazon should be able to at least achieve similar margins or might even be able to surpass these, as their ads are way more targeted towards customers that are already willing to buy something. Since they are already on Amazon's side surfing for products to buy. Because of this, I came up with the following assumptions:EBIT Margin Ads202320242025202620272028202920302031Bear25%30%30%30%30%30%30%30%30%Bull25%30%35%40%45%45%45%45%45%Click to enlargeCloud - AWSThe global cloud, market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 21.2% from 2024 to 2030. As Amazon is currently maintaining its dominant market share, a growth rate right around the market growth rate looks promising.Cloud Infrastructure Market Share per Quarter (statista.com)Bear: 15% p.a.Bull: 20% p.a.With our Bull Case, I only projected 20% annual growth because it appears unfeasible to rise beyond the market given the already massive market share and the elevated growth rate of 20% for 8 years.For the profitability, I assumed the following metrics:EBIT Margin AWS202320242025202620272028202920302031Bear27%25%25%25%25%25%25%25%25%Bull27%35%35%35%35%35%35%35%35%Click to enlargeDiscounted Cash Flow AnalysisFor our Discounted Cash Flow Analysis (\"DCF\"), we need a few additional assumptions.Tax Rate: Here I averaged out the last four years and arrived at an average tax rate of 14.4%.Free Cash Flow Conversion: I found an appropriate EBIAT to Free Cash Flow Ratio after computing the EBIAT using the tax rate given above. Since 2021 and 2022 appear to be outliers in this case, I averaged out the EBIAT To FCF from 2017 through 2020 and 2023. This gave me a conversion rate of 101%. For an additional margin of safety, I used 85% in the following DCF.2017201820192020202120222023EBIAT3,27711,10412,06920,19721,74410,72931,545EBIAT to FCF154%75%114%54%-142%-208%117%FCF8,30719,40025,80031,020-9,069-11,56936,800Click to enlargeWACC: Here I used 9%, which is also higher than Amazon's current WACC meaning additional margin of safety.Perpetuity Growth Rate: Here I used 3%, which is pretty conservative for this company if you ask me.Bear-CaseMain Assumptions Amazon Bear-Case (aboutamazon.com; seekingalpha.com; own assumptions)DCF Amazon Bear I (aboutamazon.com; seekingalpha.com; own assumptions)DCF Amazon Bear II (aboutamazon.com; seekingalpha.com; own assumptions)With our Bear-Case DCF, we get a target share price of ~$150, indicating that the company could currently be overvalued by 20%. However, keep in mind that this factors in decelerating growth rates below-market rates and lower profitability compared to competitors.Bull-CaseMain Assumptions Bull-Case (aboutamazon.com; seekingalpha.com; own assumptions)DCF Amazon Bull I (aboutamazon.com; seekingalpha.com; own assumptions)DCF Amazon Bull II (aboutamazon.com; seekingalpha.com; own assumptions)The Bull-Case indicated a fair value share price of ~$318, which would translate in an undervaluation of a whopping 117%! On the other hand, they include profit margins that are larger than those of their main rivals and growth rates that surpass the market.ConclusionIf we take a look at the last year of our Bull-Case scenarios, we can clearly see on what segments Amazon should focus on in the upcoming years.2031 Bull-Case Prediction (DCF)The biggest EBIT contributors are the Cloud, Advertising and 3rd Party segment. This is why in the upcoming earnings call (earnings to be released on October 25th), I will lay special emphasis on the relevant metrics in these few segments. I also would prefer if Amazon starts to stop \"experiments\" like the physical stores and focus on their core growth catalysts.With our Bear- and Bull-Case analysis, we get a miss-pricing in the range of -20% to 117%. As always, the truth is probably laying somewhere in between these two scenarios, since some risks, like another lawsuit, can't really be considered in such an DCF-analysis.I nevertheless think that the current valuation is still a very good entry point into Amazon, considering that the assumptions we made are very realistic and could very well exactly play out as expected. That is why I currently rate the Stock a Strong Buy, with a medium term price target of $220.If you have read this far, please consider following me for more deep-dives! Thank you so much for reading!Editor's Note: This article was submitted as part of Seeking Alpha's Best Value Idea investment competition, which runs through October 14. With cash prizes, this competition -- open to all analysts -- is one you don't want to miss. If you are interested in becoming an analyst and taking part in the competition, click here to find out more and submit your article today!Editor's Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":364204014604456,"gmtCreate":1729927236344,"gmtModify":1729927240177,"author":{"id":"4192641781859792","authorId":"4192641781859792","name":"Roy ong and Motorless are gay boy","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4192641781859792","authorIdStr":"4192641781859792"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"SKY NG LENG HWEE&nbsp;","listText":"SKY NG LENG HWEE&nbsp;","text":"SKY NG LENG HWEE","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/364204014604456","repostId":"2475314672","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2475314672","pubTimestamp":1728980883,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2475314672?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-10-15 16:28","market":"fut","language":"en","title":"Amazon: Deep Dive Shows Massive Upside","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2475314672","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"I previously rated Amazon.com, Inc. as a Strong Buy in December 2023 with a price target of $180, which the stock has now reached.Amazon operates in six major segments: 1st Party, 3rd Party, Physical,","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li><p>I previously rated Amazon.com, Inc. as a Strong Buy in December 2023 with a price target of $180, which the stock has now reached.</p></li><li><p>Amazon operates in six major segments: 1st Party, 3rd Party, Physical, Subscriptions, Advertising, and Cloud, each contributing uniquely to its revenue.</p></li><li><p>A Bear- and Bull-Case Discounted Cash Flow Analysis was used to evaluate Amazon, considering growth rates and EBIT-margins for each segment.</p></li><li><p>Given this valuation method, the company could currently be undervalued by up to 117%.</p></li></ul><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3eb2610a8104c2fa1647f9a96f69c969\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\"/></p><p>Julie Clopper</p><p></p><p>In this article, we are revisiting <strong>Amazon.com, Inc.</strong> (NASDAQ:AMZN) from my latest article on AMZN in December 2023, where I rated the company as a Strong Buy with a price target of $180. From this, the stock returned a solid 25% to today&#39;s price, meaning that we are currently pretty much at my then defined price target.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6add3aff830a3ce3585db3c5f1d07607\" tg-width=\"297\" tg-height=\"413\"/></p><p>My Amazon Stock Coverage (seekingalpha.com)</p><p></p><p>To get a realistic valuation, we briefly analyze every business segment of AMZN, define suitable growth rates and EBIT margins for each segment and finally evaluate the whole company using a Bear- and Bull-Case Discounted Cash Flow Analysis. For more details on the different segments of Amazon and their current operations, please refer to the above-mentioned article.</p><h3 id=\"id_4282393402\">Starting Point</h3><p>Since Amazon isn&#39;t declaring the profitability of each of its business segments, we have to get a bit creative here to get a financial starting point for our following analysis. Amazon is declaring the profitability of the AWS (Cloud) segment separately from the rest, meaning we can at least use this as the first anchoring point. Since subscriptions, 1st and 3rd party are connected through offerings like free shipping with Amazon Prime, I tried to at least find a suitable profitability metric for the advertisement segment of Amazon. The two main competitors in the advertising space, Google (GOOG) (GOOGL) and Meta (META), are currently having EBIT margins in the range of 25% to 40%. For our starting point, I assumed an EBIT margin of 25% in Amazon&#39;s advertisement segment.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/720ac9939c6602941b7d6abc456bffac\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"439\"/></p><p>Data by YCharts</p><p></p><p>To then get close to the stated EBIT of each year, I then broke down the remaining EBIT on the remaining business sectors for each financial year. Because some segments overlap, it is exceedingly difficult to forecast exact measurements in this case. These measurements, however, simply represent the beginning of each segment.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a2de9bc4277966ab3fcd52b5a64c3762\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"57\"/></p><p>Assumptions Starting Point (own assumptions)</p><p></p><h2 id=\"id_1968806287\">eCommerce (1st and 3rd Party)</h2><p>The eCommerce market is expected to grow at a CAGR of ~9.5% over the various markets until 2029.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/22779c48593812f88244e1b6515bc0a3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"248\"/></p><p>eCommerce Growth per Region 2024 to 2029 (statista.com)</p><p></p><p>If we factor in the increasing priority of 3rd party at Amazon, we can assume the following growth rates for the eCommerce business segments.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b8b262603df9e0597e30ccbf9d9d345b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"388\"/></p><p>Amazon 1st vs. 3rd party sales (statista.com)</p><p></p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/58bed054f059a5a604d0670d32bb4740\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"400\"/></p><p>Amazon share of 3rd party sales of the years (statista.com)</p><p></p><h4 id=\"id_2376152078\">1st Party</h4><p>Bear: 3% p.a.</p><p>Bull: 5% p.a.</p><h4 id=\"id_230580202\">3rd Party</h4><p>Bear: 10% p.a.</p><p>Bull: 15% p.a.</p><p>These seem rather conservative, factoring in the latest growth rates in the 3rd party segment of 13.9% in 2022 and 19% in 2023.</p><p>The average net margin for the online retail is right around 7%.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ff011eb64a8b9c005b559b9d5e83f4f6\" tg-width=\"935\" tg-height=\"518\"/></p><p>Average net margin per business segment 2022 (statista.com)</p><p></p><p>I think given this metric, we can assume the following margin development for the 1st party from the above defined starting point.</p><table style=\"border-collapse:collapse;\"><tbody><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>EBIT Margin 1st</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2023</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2024</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2025</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2026</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2027</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2028</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2029</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2030</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2031</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Bear</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-6%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-3%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>0%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>4%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>5%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>5%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>5%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>5%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Bull</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-6%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>0%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2.5%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>5%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>7.5%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>7.5%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>7.5%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>7.5%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>7.5%</p></td></tr></tbody></table><p>Click to enlarge</p><p>Taking a look at the 3rd party margins, it becomes apparent why Amazon is increasingly focusing in this segment. The margins of the two main competitors, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EBAY\">eBay</a> (EBAY) and Etsy (ETSY), are currently sitting right around 10% to 38%. While the average of eBay over the last few years was more right around 25%.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4e2e98890cdc59162e269256a1c0eee9\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"439\"/></p><p>Data by YCharts</p><p></p><p>I think that it is reasonable to assume that Amazon will - eventually - achieve similar margins to eBay, which gives us the following assumptions:</p><table style=\"border-collapse:collapse;\"><tbody><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>EBIT Margin 3rd</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2023</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2024</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2025</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2026</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2027</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2028</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2029</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2030</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2031</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Bear</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>4.5%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>10%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>15%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>15%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>15%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>15%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>15%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>15%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>15%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Bull</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>4.5%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>15%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>25%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>25%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>25%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>25%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>25%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>25%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>25%</p></td></tr></tbody></table><p>Click to enlarge</p><h2 id=\"id_1701601226\">Physical Stores</h2><p>This segment is a slow growth and low margin business for Amazon, taking a look at recent growth rates of this segment and the EBIT-margin of one major competitor, Kroger (KR).</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9d0ed02fce4708cdc028cf6556766ca8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"30\"/></p><p>Amazon Physical Stores Growth(Amazon Quarterly Earnings Q1/23 to Q2/24)</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/526d47eced6c932749b47386d8626529\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"424\"/></p><p>Data by YCharts</p><p></p><p>Keeping this in mind, the following assumptions seem fitting:</p><p>Bear: 3% p.a.</p><p>Bull: 10% p.a.</p><p>Considering the &#34;cashierless&#34; technology of Amazon in this segment, the profitability should improve, giving us the following EBIT assumptions:</p><p>Bear: 5%</p><p>Bull: 10%</p><p>Without wasting more time with this rather unimportant segment, we jump right into the more promising segment subscriptions.</p><h2 id=\"id_3180827049\">Subscriptions</h2><p>The revenue growth rate in this segment is currently at around 11%, a slight decline from historical numbers of ~30%.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/73f19474d7d9242018f447abbce8dc2c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"32\"/></p><p>Amazon Subscriptions Growth (Amazon Quarterly Earnings Q1/23 to Q2/24)</p><p></p><table style=\"border-collapse:collapse;\"><tbody><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>[million USD]</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2018</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2019</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2020</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2021</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2022</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2023</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Revenue</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>14,168</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>19,210</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>25,207</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>31,768</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>35,218</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>40,761</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>YOY Growth</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>46%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>36%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>31%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>26%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>11%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>15%</p></td></tr></tbody></table><p>Click to enlarge</p><p>If we take a look at the whole streaming market, experts are currently projecting a CAGR of 18.7% for the whole market until 2031. Therefore, the following growth rates seem viable:</p><p>Bear: 7.5% p.a.</p><p>Bull: 15% p.a.</p><p>If we now take a look at the margins of the comparable business Netflix (NFLX), the following assumptions for profitability should be suitable:</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9051a799240375842ed05326bdd5ef72\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"424\"/></p><p>Data by YCharts</p><p></p><p>Bear: 15%</p><p>Bull: 25%.</p><h2 id=\"id_1823772008\">Advertising</h2><p>The advertising segment for me is one of the most exciting and compelling business segments of Amazon. If we take a look at the financial metrics, it becomes apparent why I think so.</p><p>The digital advertising spending worldwide is expected to grow at a CAGR of 15.5% until 2030.</p><p>This is already pretty impressive, if we however factor in that Amazon is currently - apart from TikTok - the only major competitor that is gaining market share in this very saturated market, the prospects look even better.</p><p></p><p><social-image src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/10/14/51058349-17289208648740807.png\"></social-image></p><p>Share of major ad-selling companies in digital advertising (statista.com)</p><p></p><p>Given this development, these growth metrics seem fitting for the advertising segment.</p><p>Bear: 10% p.a.</p><p>Bull: 20% p.a.</p><p>Like mentioned at our starting point, the EBIT-margins of Meta and Google are currently at around 25% to 40%, with Google being suppressed by their massive <em>Others</em> segment. More on this issue in my latest Google article. Amazon should be able to at least achieve similar margins or might even be able to surpass these, as their ads are way more targeted towards customers that are already willing to buy something. Since they are already on Amazon&#39;s side surfing for products to buy. Because of this, I came up with the following assumptions:</p><table style=\"border-collapse:collapse;\"><tbody><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>EBIT Margin Ads</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2023</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2024</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2025</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2026</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2027</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2028</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2029</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2030</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2031</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Bear</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>25%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>30%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>30%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>30%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>30%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>30%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>30%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>30%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>30%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Bull</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>25%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>30%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>35%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>40%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>45%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>45%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>45%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>45%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>45%</p></td></tr></tbody></table><p>Click to enlarge</p><h2 id=\"id_1675279717\">Cloud - AWS</h2><p>The global cloud, market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 21.2% from 2024 to 2030. As Amazon is currently maintaining its dominant market share, a growth rate right around the market growth rate looks promising.</p><p></p><p><social-image src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/10/14/51058349-17289214849984775.png\"></social-image></p><p>Cloud Infrastructure Market Share per Quarter (statista.com)</p><p></p><p>Bear: 15% p.a.</p><p>Bull: 20% p.a.</p><p>With our Bull Case, I only projected 20% annual growth because it appears unfeasible to rise beyond the market given the already massive market share and the elevated growth rate of 20% for 8 years.</p><p>For the profitability, I assumed the following metrics:</p><table style=\"border-collapse:collapse;\"><tbody><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>EBIT Margin AWS</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2023</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2024</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2025</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2026</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2027</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2028</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2029</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2030</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2031</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Bear</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>27%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>25%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>25%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>25%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>25%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>25%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>25%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>25%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>25%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Bull</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>27%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>35%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>35%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>35%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>35%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>35%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>35%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>35%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>35%</p></td></tr></tbody></table><p>Click to enlarge</p><h2 id=\"id_1677487832\">Discounted Cash Flow Analysis</h2><p>For our Discounted Cash Flow Analysis (&#34;DCF&#34;), we need a few additional assumptions.</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>Tax Rate:</strong> Here I averaged out the last four years and arrived at an average tax rate of 14.4%.</p></li><li><p><strong>Free Cash Flow Conversion:</strong> I found an appropriate EBIAT to Free Cash Flow Ratio after computing the EBIAT using the tax rate given above. Since 2021 and 2022 appear to be outliers in this case, I averaged out the EBIAT To FCF from 2017 through 2020 and 2023. This gave me a conversion rate of 101%. For an additional margin of safety, I used 85% in the following DCF.</p></li></ul><table style=\"border-collapse:collapse;\"><colgroup><col/></colgroup><tbody><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2017</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2018</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2019</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2020</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2021</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2022</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2023</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>EBIAT</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>3,277</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>11,104</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>12,069</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>20,197</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>21,744</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>10,729</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>31,545</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>EBIAT to FCF</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>154%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>75%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>114%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>54%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-142%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-208%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>117%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>FCF</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>8,307</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>19,400</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>25,800</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>31,020</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-9,069</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-11,569</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>36,800</p></td></tr></tbody></table><p>Click to enlarge</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>WACC:</strong> Here I used 9%, which is also higher than Amazon&#39;s current WACC meaning additional margin of safety.</p></li><li><p><strong>Perpetuity Growth Rate:</strong> Here I used 3%, which is pretty conservative for this company if you ask me.</p></li></ul><h3 id=\"id_4114785257\">Bear-Case</h3><p></p><p><social-image src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/10/13/51058349-1728820166087182.png\"></social-image></p><p>Main Assumptions Amazon Bear-Case (aboutamazon.com; seekingalpha.com; own assumptions)</p><p><social-image src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/10/13/51058349-17288192091753738.png\"></social-image></p><p>DCF Amazon Bear I (aboutamazon.com; seekingalpha.com; own assumptions)</p><p><social-image src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/10/13/51058349-17288192662678003.png\"></social-image></p><p>DCF Amazon Bear II (aboutamazon.com; seekingalpha.com; own assumptions)</p><p></p><p>With our Bear-Case DCF, we get a target share price of ~$150, indicating that the company could currently be overvalued by 20%. However, keep in mind that this factors in decelerating growth rates below-market rates and lower profitability compared to competitors.</p><h2 id=\"id_738275189\">Bull-Case</h2><p></p><p><social-image src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/10/13/51058349-17288201919055088.png\"></social-image></p><p>Main Assumptions Bull-Case (aboutamazon.com; seekingalpha.com; own assumptions)</p><p><social-image src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/10/13/51058349-1728819551935197.png\"></social-image></p><p>DCF Amazon Bull I (aboutamazon.com; seekingalpha.com; own assumptions)</p><p><social-image src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/10/13/51058349-17288196208292644.png\"></social-image></p><p>DCF Amazon Bull II (aboutamazon.com; seekingalpha.com; own assumptions)</p><p></p><p>The Bull-Case indicated a fair value share price of ~$318, which would translate in an undervaluation of a whopping 117%! On the other hand, they include profit margins that are larger than those of their main rivals and growth rates that surpass the market.</p><h2 id=\"id_550457842\">Conclusion</h2><p>If we take a look at the last year of our Bull-Case scenarios, we can clearly see on what segments Amazon should focus on in the upcoming years.</p><p></p><p><social-image src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/10/13/51058349-17288202303395493.png\"></social-image></p><p>2031 Bull-Case Prediction (DCF)</p><p></p><p>The biggest EBIT contributors are the Cloud, Advertising and 3rd Party segment. This is why in the upcoming earnings call (earnings to be released on October 25th), I will lay special emphasis on the relevant metrics in these few segments. I also would prefer if Amazon starts to stop &#34;experiments&#34; like the physical stores and focus on their core growth catalysts.</p><p>With our Bear- and Bull-Case analysis, we get a miss-pricing in the range of -20% to 117%. As always, the truth is probably laying somewhere in between these two scenarios, since some risks, like another lawsuit, can&#39;t really be considered in such an DCF-analysis.</p><p>I nevertheless think that the current valuation is still a very good entry point into Amazon, considering that the assumptions we made are very realistic and could very well exactly play out as expected. That is why I currently rate the Stock a Strong Buy, with a medium term price target of $220.</p><p>If you have read this far, please consider following me for more deep-dives! Thank you so much for reading!</p><p><strong><em>Editor&#39;s Note</em></strong><em>: This article was submitted as part of Seeking Alpha&#39;s</em> <em>Best Value Idea investment competition, which runs through October 14. With cash prizes, this competition -- open to all analysts -- is one you don&#39;t want to miss. If you are interested in becoming an analyst and taking part in the competition,</em> <em>click here</em> <em>to find out more and submit your article today!</em></p><p>Editor&#39;s Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Amazon: Deep Dive Shows Massive Upside</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAmazon: Deep Dive Shows Massive Upside\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-10-15 16:28 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4726684-amazon-deep-dive-shows-massive-upside><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>I previously rated Amazon.com, Inc. as a Strong Buy in December 2023 with a price target of $180, which the stock has now reached.Amazon operates in six major segments: 1st Party, 3rd Party, Physical,...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4726684-amazon-deep-dive-shows-massive-upside\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4561":"索罗斯持仓","IE00BKPKM429.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE0005OL40V9.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A6M\" (USD) INC","IE00BZ1G4Q59.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE US EQUITY SUSTAINABILITY LEADER \"A\"(USD) INC (A)","IE00BK4W5L77.USD":"HSBC GLOBAL FUNDS ICAV US EQUITY INDEX \"HC\" (USD) ACC","LU0061474705.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL DYNAMIC REAL RETURN \"AU\" (USD) ACC","IE00BK4W5M84.HKD":"HSBC GLOBAL FUNDS ICAV US EQUITY INDEX \"HC\" (HKD) ACC","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","IE00BJLML261.HKD":"HSBC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"HCH\" (HKD) ACC","IE00B1BXHZ80.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Appreciation A Acc USD","LU0061475181.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) AMERICAN \"AU\" (USD) ACC","IE00BMPRXQ63.HKD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN NEXT GENERATION CONNECTIVITY FUND \"A\" (HKDHDG) ACC","IE00BFSS8Q28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD-H","BK4592":"伊斯兰概念","IE0009356076.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION \"A2\" (USD) ACC","IE00BJTD4N35.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Long Short Equity A1  Acc SGD-H","IE00B7KXQ091.USD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc USD","AMZN":"亚马逊","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4507":"流媒体概念","IE00BFSS7M15.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD-H","IE0004086264.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4566":"资本集团","IE00B3S45H60.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Multicap Opportunities A Acc SGD-H","IE0004445239.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON US FORTY \"A2\" (USD) ACC","IE00B19Z9505.USD":"美盛-美国大盘成长股A Acc","IE00BJJMRX11.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD","IE00BN29S564.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A3\" (USD) INC","LU0072462426.USD":"贝莱德全球配置 A2","BK4524":"宅经济概念","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","LU0079474960.USD":"联博美国增长基金A","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","LU0082616367.USD":"摩根大通美国科技A（dist）","GB00BDT5M118.USD":"天利环球扩展Alpha基金A Acc","BK4538":"云计算","IE0034235303.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US RESEARCH ENHANCED CORE EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4579":"人工智能","LU0080751232.USD":"富达环球多元动力基金A","LU0061474960.USD":"天利环球焦点基金AU Acc","BK4588":"碎股","IE00BMPRXR70.SGD":"Neuberger Berman 5G Connectivity A Acc SGD-H","IE00BKDWB100.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5H\" (SGDHDG) ACC","BK4122":"互联网与直销零售","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","IE00B775H168.HKD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A5M\" (HKD) INC"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4726684-amazon-deep-dive-shows-massive-upside","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2475314672","content_text":"I previously rated Amazon.com, Inc. as a Strong Buy in December 2023 with a price target of $180, which the stock has now reached.Amazon operates in six major segments: 1st Party, 3rd Party, Physical, Subscriptions, Advertising, and Cloud, each contributing uniquely to its revenue.A Bear- and Bull-Case Discounted Cash Flow Analysis was used to evaluate Amazon, considering growth rates and EBIT-margins for each segment.Given this valuation method, the company could currently be undervalued by up to 117%.Julie ClopperIn this article, we are revisiting Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) from my latest article on AMZN in December 2023, where I rated the company as a Strong Buy with a price target of $180. From this, the stock returned a solid 25% to today's price, meaning that we are currently pretty much at my then defined price target.My Amazon Stock Coverage (seekingalpha.com)To get a realistic valuation, we briefly analyze every business segment of AMZN, define suitable growth rates and EBIT margins for each segment and finally evaluate the whole company using a Bear- and Bull-Case Discounted Cash Flow Analysis. For more details on the different segments of Amazon and their current operations, please refer to the above-mentioned article.Starting PointSince Amazon isn't declaring the profitability of each of its business segments, we have to get a bit creative here to get a financial starting point for our following analysis. Amazon is declaring the profitability of the AWS (Cloud) segment separately from the rest, meaning we can at least use this as the first anchoring point. Since subscriptions, 1st and 3rd party are connected through offerings like free shipping with Amazon Prime, I tried to at least find a suitable profitability metric for the advertisement segment of Amazon. The two main competitors in the advertising space, Google (GOOG) (GOOGL) and Meta (META), are currently having EBIT margins in the range of 25% to 40%. For our starting point, I assumed an EBIT margin of 25% in Amazon's advertisement segment.Data by YChartsTo then get close to the stated EBIT of each year, I then broke down the remaining EBIT on the remaining business sectors for each financial year. Because some segments overlap, it is exceedingly difficult to forecast exact measurements in this case. These measurements, however, simply represent the beginning of each segment.Assumptions Starting Point (own assumptions)eCommerce (1st and 3rd Party)The eCommerce market is expected to grow at a CAGR of ~9.5% over the various markets until 2029.eCommerce Growth per Region 2024 to 2029 (statista.com)If we factor in the increasing priority of 3rd party at Amazon, we can assume the following growth rates for the eCommerce business segments.Amazon 1st vs. 3rd party sales (statista.com)Amazon share of 3rd party sales of the years (statista.com)1st PartyBear: 3% p.a.Bull: 5% p.a.3rd PartyBear: 10% p.a.Bull: 15% p.a.These seem rather conservative, factoring in the latest growth rates in the 3rd party segment of 13.9% in 2022 and 19% in 2023.The average net margin for the online retail is right around 7%.Average net margin per business segment 2022 (statista.com)I think given this metric, we can assume the following margin development for the 1st party from the above defined starting point.EBIT Margin 1st202320242025202620272028202920302031Bear-6%-3%0%2%4%5%5%5%5%Bull-6%0%2.5%5%7.5%7.5%7.5%7.5%7.5%Click to enlargeTaking a look at the 3rd party margins, it becomes apparent why Amazon is increasingly focusing in this segment. The margins of the two main competitors, eBay (EBAY) and Etsy (ETSY), are currently sitting right around 10% to 38%. While the average of eBay over the last few years was more right around 25%.Data by YChartsI think that it is reasonable to assume that Amazon will - eventually - achieve similar margins to eBay, which gives us the following assumptions:EBIT Margin 3rd202320242025202620272028202920302031Bear4.5%10%15%15%15%15%15%15%15%Bull4.5%15%25%25%25%25%25%25%25%Click to enlargePhysical StoresThis segment is a slow growth and low margin business for Amazon, taking a look at recent growth rates of this segment and the EBIT-margin of one major competitor, Kroger (KR).Amazon Physical Stores Growth(Amazon Quarterly Earnings Q1/23 to Q2/24)Data by YChartsKeeping this in mind, the following assumptions seem fitting:Bear: 3% p.a.Bull: 10% p.a.Considering the \"cashierless\" technology of Amazon in this segment, the profitability should improve, giving us the following EBIT assumptions:Bear: 5%Bull: 10%Without wasting more time with this rather unimportant segment, we jump right into the more promising segment subscriptions.SubscriptionsThe revenue growth rate in this segment is currently at around 11%, a slight decline from historical numbers of ~30%.Amazon Subscriptions Growth (Amazon Quarterly Earnings Q1/23 to Q2/24)[million USD]201820192020202120222023Revenue14,16819,21025,20731,76835,21840,761YOY Growth46%36%31%26%11%15%Click to enlargeIf we take a look at the whole streaming market, experts are currently projecting a CAGR of 18.7% for the whole market until 2031. Therefore, the following growth rates seem viable:Bear: 7.5% p.a.Bull: 15% p.a.If we now take a look at the margins of the comparable business Netflix (NFLX), the following assumptions for profitability should be suitable:Data by YChartsBear: 15%Bull: 25%.AdvertisingThe advertising segment for me is one of the most exciting and compelling business segments of Amazon. If we take a look at the financial metrics, it becomes apparent why I think so.The digital advertising spending worldwide is expected to grow at a CAGR of 15.5% until 2030.This is already pretty impressive, if we however factor in that Amazon is currently - apart from TikTok - the only major competitor that is gaining market share in this very saturated market, the prospects look even better.Share of major ad-selling companies in digital advertising (statista.com)Given this development, these growth metrics seem fitting for the advertising segment.Bear: 10% p.a.Bull: 20% p.a.Like mentioned at our starting point, the EBIT-margins of Meta and Google are currently at around 25% to 40%, with Google being suppressed by their massive Others segment. More on this issue in my latest Google article. Amazon should be able to at least achieve similar margins or might even be able to surpass these, as their ads are way more targeted towards customers that are already willing to buy something. Since they are already on Amazon's side surfing for products to buy. Because of this, I came up with the following assumptions:EBIT Margin Ads202320242025202620272028202920302031Bear25%30%30%30%30%30%30%30%30%Bull25%30%35%40%45%45%45%45%45%Click to enlargeCloud - AWSThe global cloud, market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 21.2% from 2024 to 2030. As Amazon is currently maintaining its dominant market share, a growth rate right around the market growth rate looks promising.Cloud Infrastructure Market Share per Quarter (statista.com)Bear: 15% p.a.Bull: 20% p.a.With our Bull Case, I only projected 20% annual growth because it appears unfeasible to rise beyond the market given the already massive market share and the elevated growth rate of 20% for 8 years.For the profitability, I assumed the following metrics:EBIT Margin AWS202320242025202620272028202920302031Bear27%25%25%25%25%25%25%25%25%Bull27%35%35%35%35%35%35%35%35%Click to enlargeDiscounted Cash Flow AnalysisFor our Discounted Cash Flow Analysis (\"DCF\"), we need a few additional assumptions.Tax Rate: Here I averaged out the last four years and arrived at an average tax rate of 14.4%.Free Cash Flow Conversion: I found an appropriate EBIAT to Free Cash Flow Ratio after computing the EBIAT using the tax rate given above. Since 2021 and 2022 appear to be outliers in this case, I averaged out the EBIAT To FCF from 2017 through 2020 and 2023. This gave me a conversion rate of 101%. For an additional margin of safety, I used 85% in the following DCF.2017201820192020202120222023EBIAT3,27711,10412,06920,19721,74410,72931,545EBIAT to FCF154%75%114%54%-142%-208%117%FCF8,30719,40025,80031,020-9,069-11,56936,800Click to enlargeWACC: Here I used 9%, which is also higher than Amazon's current WACC meaning additional margin of safety.Perpetuity Growth Rate: Here I used 3%, which is pretty conservative for this company if you ask me.Bear-CaseMain Assumptions Amazon Bear-Case (aboutamazon.com; seekingalpha.com; own assumptions)DCF Amazon Bear I (aboutamazon.com; seekingalpha.com; own assumptions)DCF Amazon Bear II (aboutamazon.com; seekingalpha.com; own assumptions)With our Bear-Case DCF, we get a target share price of ~$150, indicating that the company could currently be overvalued by 20%. However, keep in mind that this factors in decelerating growth rates below-market rates and lower profitability compared to competitors.Bull-CaseMain Assumptions Bull-Case (aboutamazon.com; seekingalpha.com; own assumptions)DCF Amazon Bull I (aboutamazon.com; seekingalpha.com; own assumptions)DCF Amazon Bull II (aboutamazon.com; seekingalpha.com; own assumptions)The Bull-Case indicated a fair value share price of ~$318, which would translate in an undervaluation of a whopping 117%! On the other hand, they include profit margins that are larger than those of their main rivals and growth rates that surpass the market.ConclusionIf we take a look at the last year of our Bull-Case scenarios, we can clearly see on what segments Amazon should focus on in the upcoming years.2031 Bull-Case Prediction (DCF)The biggest EBIT contributors are the Cloud, Advertising and 3rd Party segment. This is why in the upcoming earnings call (earnings to be released on October 25th), I will lay special emphasis on the relevant metrics in these few segments. I also would prefer if Amazon starts to stop \"experiments\" like the physical stores and focus on their core growth catalysts.With our Bear- and Bull-Case analysis, we get a miss-pricing in the range of -20% to 117%. As always, the truth is probably laying somewhere in between these two scenarios, since some risks, like another lawsuit, can't really be considered in such an DCF-analysis.I nevertheless think that the current valuation is still a very good entry point into Amazon, considering that the assumptions we made are very realistic and could very well exactly play out as expected. That is why I currently rate the Stock a Strong Buy, with a medium term price target of $220.If you have read this far, please consider following me for more deep-dives! Thank you so much for reading!Editor's Note: This article was submitted as part of Seeking Alpha's Best Value Idea investment competition, which runs through October 14. With cash prizes, this competition -- open to all analysts -- is one you don't want to miss. If you are interested in becoming an analyst and taking part in the competition, click here to find out more and submit your article today!Editor's Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. 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class=\"title\">\nQuantumScape Q3 2024 GAAP EPS $(0.23), Inline\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-10-24 04:19</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><body><p>QuantumScape (NYSE:QS) reported quarterly losses of $(0.23) per share which met the analyst consensus estimate.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"QS":"Quantumscape Corp."},"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/24/10/41501131/quantumscape-q3-2024-gaap-eps-0-23-inline","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2477656484","content_text":"QuantumScape (NYSE:QS) reported quarterly losses of $(0.23) 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class=\"title\">\nQuantumScape Q3 2024 GAAP EPS $(0.23), Inline\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-10-24 04:19</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><body><p>QuantumScape (NYSE:QS) reported quarterly losses of $(0.23) per share which met the analyst consensus estimate.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"QS":"Quantumscape Corp."},"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/24/10/41501131/quantumscape-q3-2024-gaap-eps-0-23-inline","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2477656484","content_text":"QuantumScape (NYSE:QS) reported quarterly losses of $(0.23) 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