$Alphabet(GOOG)$$Alphabet(GOOGL)$I am wondering if party is over for GOOGL and it is going toward $100, may be because Anti Trust Investigation, UK has something similar and Musk claiming to build biggest Search Engine, which will bring google down. Nothing make sense about this stock anymore, and google being tight lip about everything, and $6-8 drop is very common everyday from $180.
$Intel(INTC)$There is no logical reason for a company to buy Intel at this time. They can wait until they are dropped from the dow and next earnings are horrible. The stock price will drop below $10 and bankruptcy is probably imminent unless they get bailed out. Then a company can buy them at a much better price.
$Broadcom(AVGO)$Tech stocks are quite toxic right now. It's very easy to look at them and conclude the prices are at a screaming buy but that could be a huge mistake. There is most definitely room for these stocks to fall further. Hope I'm wrong but there is a mad exodus out of equities and into bonds right now. If that continues for another few weeks these high flying tech stocks could fall another 15-20%. THAT would be the time to load up if it happens.
$Intel(INTC)$The split is the only way forward. Intel is losing market share on all fronts using chips made internally. It is starting to use $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ for its flagship designs and the early looks are encouraging. Hence, the sooner Intel ditches the fabs the better. The costs of building & sustaining investments in Fabs are astronomic and only pure play foundries like TSMC can afford them or a behemoth like $Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd.(SSNLF)$ . Intel is neither and is in much worse situation than both. It has the worst cost structure and worst competitive position between all leading edge foundries
$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$The problem is that the AI portion of the business is essentially a start-up. Why should we believe Tesla has a better chance of dominating these areas than any other company? Tesla had a 5-10 year lead in EVs at one point and now revenues are stagnant in a rapidly growing market segment, so market share is plunging. Why invest in a company that cant even compete in its current business? Pivoting to a new business because you are failing at the current one is a big gamble and with the current valuation, investors are taking enormous risk.The robotics opportunity is huge, but will Tesla be the leader here? Who knows?
$C3.ai, Inc.(AI)$if this dead cat can crawl back up to $21 it could be a good short from there.. puts have cheapened today (IV dropped ~30%) so buying the $17.50 October OTM Put for around $0.30-0.40 as the underlying hits $21 could yield nicely (assuming AI fails to crack $21 and slides back down)..
$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$you expect the share to climb 20% while they buyback 1.66% of the company valuation ? Might i had there is no timeline for that buyback. So it could be running for the 10 years to come if they want to. As they can wait 1 year or 2 before beginning the buyback.The buyback will trigger no uplift, it is just pure fact based on the company way bigger valuation. The numbers of shares will not decline enough to have a meaningful impact on the price rise for what would be left after it is completed.At least I am giving you arguments, facts, as to why it won’t do anything.While all you do is write buyback=share price uplift. Well sorry, it doesn’t occur in all buyback.
$Apple(AAPL)$Buffet knows something. He famously said we would never have cash around just to hold cash. They know something is coming and $Apple(AAPL)$ & $Bank of America(BAC)$ indicate it’s an everything problem not a remote problem with both companies. War, reinflation, consumer debt, stagflation, etc.
$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$The graph of TSLA since Nov. 2021 is the most informative and most relevant. Tesla has has all of the supposed stated advantages thru this entire period. What I see is three attempts to recover the Nov. highs all of which collapsed on the basis on continuing declining fundamentals. Since Nov. 21 the single largest factor seems to be the maturing of EV commodity vehicle markets and while Musk has bragged about Tesla vertical integration and scaling - Tesla still buys the majority of battery cells from its competitors in both EVs and Energy Storage. Finally, the delayed FSD robotaxi reveal will not arrive with either DOT licenses or insurance carriers underwriting. All of which means in the best case sc
$Fair Isaac(FICO)$I’m interested in acquiring a position in FICO, but I have concerns about its current valuation. The recent increase in the stock price seems to be driven primarily by multiple expansion. Looking ahead, what will sustain future returns? It’s unlikely that further multiple expansion will occur from a 90 P/E ratio, especially with revenue growth projected at 8-12% in the coming years. Is the company’s monopoly and pricing power the key factors that will drive FCF per share growth? What kind of returns can be expected over the next 5-10 years? Perhaps 10-15% if the P/E ratio compresses slightly as the company matures and growth slows?
$S&P Global(SPGI)$SPGI is a great company. But it's overvalued. Their current EPS (TTM) is about $13.95. This is expected to grow at about 13% CAGR for the foreseeable future so in 5 years, this would give EPS of about $25.70.The current PE is about 36.6. The average PE for the past 10 years is 26. The average PE for the past 5 years is 31. What multiple will SPGI trade at in the future?PE 26 gives $668 estimated price target and total CAGR of 6.2%. This will likely under-perform the market. To clarify, PE 26 is still a premium over the broader market.PE 30 gives $771 estimated price target and total CAGR of 9.3%. This is decent, but will likely underperform the market.The average return for
$Alphabet(GOOG)$$Alphabet(GOOGL)$This doj overhang will keep the stock suppressed from its max potential. The company wont get broken up but its fair to assume it wont come out unscathed. The stock is dead for awhile. Technicals showing downtrend is in effect. 143 gap before 181 gap.
$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$The lucky ones sold yesterday. Ask yourself: should I keep bag holding this bubble? If the answer is yes, then you need to buy. If the answer is no, you need to sell. Pretty simpleWhen is the $50 billion buy back happening? Suspect this pullback is the opportunity created to finish that buy back and then the stock will go new highs. This might drop down to $95 n then bounce
$XIAOMI-W(01810)$$Xiaomi Corp.(XIACY)$Man, buying in at the top? That’s risky business. Looks like some folks are just setting themselves up to be stuck for a while. If you’re jumping in now, you might be in for a long wait before seeing any real gains. It’s like you’re signing up to be stuck in the trenches for a couple of years. Just a heads-up: be ready for some serious patience and maybe a bit of heartache!
$Broadcom(AVGO)$Some are having a love fest for their beloved AVGO. But they make excuses or ignore the very high PE for this stock of 70, and the expected slowdown in the next 2-3 years on this stock.I wish it were in the same position it had been in, where it always went up upon reporting, and staying up, but the times and the market have changed. Unfortunately, that is the reality, and I can't stick my head in the sand and ignore it.
$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$I’ve decided to ditch my position in Coinbase—this stock is just brutal and seriously underperforming compared to the entire crypto market. I’m sticking with $MicroStrategy(MSTR)$ and BTC from now on. It’s been rough watching COIN lag behind, and I’m not up for the hassle anymore. So, I’m out. Good luck to everyone sticking with it, but I’m moving on. Catch you all later!
$Apple(AAPL)$Up to now, none of Apple's competitors had the ability to move upmarket to complete with Apple's high end offerings. It is different now that $XIAOMI-W(01810)$$Xiaomi Corp.(XIACY)$ is becoming a high technology company, and not just in smartphones but also in EVs and IoT, and there is no doubt it will have the ability to compete with Apple on the quality of the smartphones. The only thing going for Apple is perceived loyalty to the brand, but I think it will erode over time.
$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$Wall Street is hungry for something much more from Nvidia. Doubling revenues is not going to cut it. It has been said that Nvidia will lose 40% of the business from $Alphabet(GOOG)$$Alphabet(GOOGL)$$Microsoft(MSFT)$$Amazon.com(AMZN)$, etc. because these companies are building their own hyperscaler chips. And then the competition begins with those Big Techs selling their chips in the open market.
$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$When the bubbles finally burst and easy fast money dries up, there's a sea of lemmings wailing and nashing of teeff, as they cry in regret, shame and humiliation for the grave financial mistake they made to stay long a bursting bubble stock. Oh the humanity.
$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$What do you think about the probability that the decline at the open tomorrow in NVDA will drag other semiconductor stocks down with it that can be purchased at lower p/e, Enterprise Value/EBITDA, Price/Cash Flow and PEG ratios--and in many instances also pay a decent dividend? I believe that the probability is very high, which is why I plan to start buying back at $152 or lower the $Broadcom(AVGO)$ that I trimmed above $165. Ditto other names such as $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$$Micron Technology(MU)$$Qualcomm(QCOM)$