鲍威尔握紧拳头不松手，股市将重回下跌轨道？

146
Comment
7

鲍威尔握紧拳头不松手，股市将重回下跌轨道？

东北偏北FICC2022-08-27

作者：东北证券首席经济学家付鹏在杰克逊霍尔央行会议上，鲍威尔基本肯定一个答案就是：目前来讲美联储目标不会发生任何的变化，仍然是要将借贷成本的提高到限制增长所需的水平。相关阅读：”吓崩“美股！鲍威尔在Jackson Hole的讲话全文这句话呢其实就是允许利率曲线倒挂，因为利率曲线本身的前端你可以理解成借贷成本。而远端就是经济潜在的增长增速，提高到限制增长其实就是债券曲线倒挂。并且表示在一段时间内都...

Source Link

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

146

Report

Comment

haiwei183
·2022-08-29
look
Reply
1
Report
BenWong78
·2022-08-29
👌
Reply
Like
Report
Alvis89
·2022-08-28
Good
Reply
Like
Report
山那边的英英子
·2022-08-27
h
Reply
1
Report

Most Discussed

7x24

All

Terms and Conditions·Privacy Policy

Company: TTMF Limited. Tech supported by Xiangshang Yixin.

Email：uservice@ttm.financial

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"data":{"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1138397935?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cccb4060ead1a8adaaa889023510cde1","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2022-08-27 11:37","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","id":"1138397935","market":"us","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"鲍威尔握紧拳头不松手，股市将重回下跌轨道？","media":"东北偏北FICC","content":"<div>\n<p>作者：东北证券首席经济学家付鹏在杰克逊霍尔央行会议上，鲍威尔基本肯定一个答案就是：目前来讲美联储目标不会发生任何的变化，仍然是要将借贷成本的提高到限制增长所需的水平。相关阅读：”吓崩“美股！鲍威尔在Jackson Hole的讲话全文这句话呢其实就是允许利率曲线倒挂，因为利率曲线本身的前端你可以理解成借贷成本。而远端就是经济潜在的增长增速，提高到限制增长其实就是债券曲线倒挂。并且表示在一段时间内都...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzkzNDM4MTM5MA==&mid=2247484984&idx=1&sn=0f254e8330e86ded08cd06cb9112219e&chksm=c2bf5419f5c8dd0fb58780f93312128eab09ad9d66e263d5bdfd4342936277d5df21af6fe04c&mpshare=1&scene=23&srcid=0827CmY1uvXxXYgwTblmcoN0&sharer_sharetime=1661564949755&sharer_shareid=00a55b671777cf0e253d4693000ead51%23rd\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"lsy1661571483521","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>鲍威尔握紧拳头不松手，股市将重回下跌轨道？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n鲍威尔握紧拳头不松手，股市将重回下跌轨道？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-08-27 11:37 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzkzNDM4MTM5MA==&mid=2247484984&idx=1&sn=0f254e8330e86ded08cd06cb9112219e&chksm=c2bf5419f5c8dd0fb58780f93312128eab09ad9d66e263d5bdfd4342936277d5df21af6fe04c&mpshare=1&scene=23&srcid=0827CmY1uvXxXYgwTblmcoN0&sharer_sharetime=1661564949755&sharer_shareid=00a55b671777cf0e253d4693000ead51%23rd><strong>东北偏北FICC</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者：东北证券首席经济学家付鹏在杰克逊霍尔央行会议上，鲍威尔基本肯定一个答案就是：目前来讲美联储目标不会发生任何的变化，仍然是要将借贷成本的提高到限制增长所需的水平。相关阅读：”吓崩“美股！鲍威尔在Jackson Hole的讲话全文这句话呢其实就是允许利率曲线倒挂，因为利率曲线本身的前端你可以理解成借贷成本。而远端就是经济潜在的增长增速，提高到限制增长其实就是债券曲线倒挂。并且表示在一段时间内都...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzkzNDM4MTM5MA==&mid=2247484984&idx=1&sn=0f254e8330e86ded08cd06cb9112219e&chksm=c2bf5419f5c8dd0fb58780f93312128eab09ad9d66e263d5bdfd4342936277d5df21af6fe04c&mpshare=1&scene=23&srcid=0827CmY1uvXxXYgwTblmcoN0&sharer_sharetime=1661564949755&sharer_shareid=00a55b671777cf0e253d4693000ead51%23rd\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":".DJI","symbol_name":"道琼斯","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzkzNDM4MTM5MA==&mid=2247484984&idx=1&sn=0f254e8330e86ded08cd06cb9112219e&chksm=c2bf5419f5c8dd0fb58780f93312128eab09ad9d66e263d5bdfd4342936277d5df21af6fe04c&mpshare=1&scene=23&srcid=0827CmY1uvXxXYgwTblmcoN0&sharer_sharetime=1661564949755&sharer_shareid=00a55b671777cf0e253d4693000ead51%23rd","article_id":"1138397935","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://static.tigerbbs.com/cccb4060ead1a8adaaa889023510cde1"],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138397935","pubTimestamp":1661571456,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"lsy1661571483521","name":"东北偏北FICC"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"全球资产进入到一个温水煮青蛙的过程。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"qq.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"translate_title":"Powell clenches his fist and does not let go. Will the stock market return to the downward track?","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68b81615c3b2fba3bfc75aaa139a09cc","symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9},"content_text":"作者：东北证券首席经济学家付鹏在杰克逊霍尔央行会议上，鲍威尔基本肯定一个答案就是：目前来讲美联储目标不会发生任何的变化，仍然是要将借贷成本的提高到限制增长所需的水平。相关阅读：”吓崩“美股！鲍威尔在Jackson Hole的讲话全文这句话呢其实就是允许利率曲线倒挂，因为利率曲线本身的前端你可以理解成借贷成本。而远端就是经济潜在的增长增速，提高到限制增长其实就是债券曲线倒挂。并且表示在一段时间内都应该保持在这样的水平。通过利率曲线倒挂的方式来限制经济增长限制需求，用拉低需求的方式来推动通胀的回落，这个思路呢是非常明确的。在这种情况下，这一轮比较特殊的地方，就在于就短端通胀的复杂性，这可能会使得整个通胀持续的时间会比较的长，它不是那么容易的能够快速回落的。这个时候需要保持这样一个握紧拳头的方式坚持一段时间不松手也不能松手。再者虽然说现在看到了通胀数据上掉头的迹象，但是联储设定的目标和目前的通胀水平偏离还是太远。按照以前的FICC交易的逻辑是说如果见到利率曲线扁平甚至是倒挂，见到通胀掉头经济放缓的预期，其实就可以左侧提前去做美联储的下一轮宽松交易的布局。但是这一次如果按照以往的经验去做，就会过早，因为忽略了这中间此次多的一个变量-就是时间。目前的短暂通胀距离央行目标太远，美联储需要握紧拳头坚持很长的一段时间内，直到通胀回落到目标范围内才可能去松手也就是预期调整；如果按照以前的经验做交易的你过早介入到左侧交易，你可能会反反复复的被按在地上摩擦。这次握紧拳头保持的时间是一个重要的变量，可能持续的时间维度会持久一些，那这样的话负债端成本会紧紧的保持在高位，流动性完全没法去提前松，如果提前松可能就会犯历史性的错误；握紧拳头不松手下，全球资产就会陷入到温水煮青蛙，小刀子刮肉钝磨的状态。去年10月份到今年的二季度，属于这个手逐步到握紧拳头的过程。全球是一轮杀估值的表现，例如ARKK的跌幅。而握紧拳头不松手可能不会带来向前面那种“杀”的力度。就像一些乐观的人讲的：虽然FED不松手，但是不是也没有更紧的情况了呀，话虽这么说，但是它导致的一个结果将会是全球资产进入到一个温水煮青蛙的过程，整个资产价格是小刀子刮肉钝磨的过程。这种情境下真正的变量不仅仅是利率的绝对水平，而持续的时间将会越发重要，持续越久，压力越大。全球的各国央行都不得不把拳头握紧。美联储其实已经走在相对的前头，他握紧拳头不能松。那么其他的央行就得进一步的跟上联储的动作。对于美国来讲，他希望实现的是温和着陆，即便是衰退，如同美联储哈克讲的可能也只是个浅衰退。在温水煮青蛙的情况下，其实就是比谁的经济韧性更强的问题。全球抬高借贷成本究竟会限制谁的增长，限制谁的需求？美国相对欧洲而言是更有韧性，一些国家如果被动的跟随这样的利率曲线状态的话，这种过程可能是非常痛苦的了，不跟随汇率的贬值和资本的流动也是同样的压力。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":null,"is_publish_highlight":null,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":9997063886,"gmtCreate":1661728210747,"gmtModify":1676536565737,"author":{"id":"3572683426659077","authorId":"3572683426659077","name":"haiwei183","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1cae291bddff5a30eeb96060074d8531","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"look","listText":"look","text":"look","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9997063886","repostId":1138397935,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9997010987,"gmtCreate":1661726537251,"gmtModify":1676536565045,"author":{"id":"3583105234087115","authorId":"3583105234087115","name":"BenWong78","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab93ce829c1388a21eb1da2c92d221ae","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"👌","listText":"👌","text":"👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9997010987","repostId":1138397935,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9994201915,"gmtCreate":1661645601339,"gmtModify":1676536552575,"author":{"id":"4097718990210550","authorId":"4097718990210550","name":"Alvis89","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c485ca056f902ebf1f1d195e2bd52c52","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Good&nbsp;","listText":"Good&nbsp;","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9994201915","repostId":1138397935,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9994606667,"gmtCreate":1661614265262,"gmtModify":1676536549789,"author":{"id":"3581939067431343","authorId":"3581939067431343","name":"山那边的英英子","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c8a7304c7112e9c83de3d44c85ec252","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"h","listText":"h","text":"h","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9994606667","repostId":1138397935,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"hasMoreComments":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":146,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":7,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false}}