$YANGZIJIANG SHIPBLDG HLDGS LTD(BS6.SI)$I have exited all my YZJSB after 2 years, forgoing the dividend. Business fundamental has no changed. I exit at >1x NAV which I'm happy with.As for YZJFH, I will let the market decide the price as to me they are at no cost. Hope to see it to be traded at 0.8x NAV
$YANGZIJIANG SHIPBLDG HLDGS LTD(BS6.SI)$Assumptions made forYZJFH1) YZJFH will trade based on Financial Companies from HKSE PE and PB2) YZJFH's Book value and EPS remainYZJSB1) YZJSB will trade within the range of its PE and PB ratios2) YZJSB's Book value and EPS remainEPS and NAV are based on the latest announcement made on 1 April 2022 and converted to SGD based on 1SGD = 4.69CNYHong Stock remains in a bear market so the valuations based on comparable companies traded on HKSE are conservative.YZJ will trade at the lowest PE or PB only during special events like major market sell-off or a specific event such as ‘government investigation’Base Case, YZJ should be traded at $1.68-$1.75Optimistic Case, YZJ should trade at $2.11-$2.15
$YANGZIJIANG SHIPBLDG HLDGS LTD(BS6.SI)$Yangzijiang shipbuilding 2021 Full Year Financial Results:Cash and cash equivalent per share: SGD 0.68Net Liquid asset per share: SGD 1.49Book Value per share: SGD 1.96Dividend per share: SGD 0.05From valuation perspective, YZJ is still cheap at $1.40 level. Out of $1.40, about 50% of its valuation is from its cash and cash equivalents. Meaning that you are paying $0.70 for all of its other net assets, future earning and growth potential
$YANGZIJIANG SHIPBLDG HLDGS LTD(BS6.SI)$Evergrande debt implication on YZJYZJ has limited disclosure on its debt investments. So there is no information showing YZJ actually held Evergrande DebtAnalysis from public available informationSource: YZJ 1H Financial ResultTotal Debt amortised at cost:10,907,170+5,719,110=16,626,280Debt investment as a percentages of total asset:16,626,280/47,334,191 = 35% This means that if all YZJ debt investment get wipe out, 35% of its assets will be goneConcern about Real Estate debt default.About 41% of its debt investments were from real estate sector.0.41 x 16,626,280 = 6,816,774.8Real estate debt investment as a percentage of total asset:6,816,774.8/47,334,191 =14.4%This means that if all YZJ real estate related
$YANGZIJIANG SHIPBLDG HLDGS LTD(BS6.SI)$YZJ from a technical perspectiveYZY business fundamental remains intact and what has changed was just the price.Looking at Picture 1 yzj is still on a uptrend with long term moving averages sloping up+trend line.Looking at Picture 2 yzj is a textbook breakout and retrace to find support at previous resistance around $1.55. It may be due for a rebound based on1) Previous resistance act as a support 2) Stochastic oversold 3) Candle stick pattern of hammer (I don't really look at candle stick pattern actually)However, remember that TA is just a probability.
$YANGZIJIANG SHIPBLDG HLDGS LTD(BS6.SI)$Today $1.7x is different from $1.7x in 2017Will look from perspective of Price to Book and all else equal.Look at the Price to Book (PB) ratio:2017: 1.2x PB for price of $1.7x2019: 1.04x PB for price of 1.6x2021: 0.92x PE for price of 1.6xIn 2019, th share price crashed from high was due to one time extraordinary incident. If without this extraordinary event, price may go higher but no one can predict the future.The lower valuation given today may factor in the risk of debt investment and political risk.
$COMFORTDELGRO CORPORATION LTD(C52.SI)$Is it worth to revisit?When people talk about Comfortdelgro the first thing come to their mind is Taxis. Private hired cars caused disruption to the industry and is here to stay. One may overstate the impact of Taxi segment of Comfortdelgro. Look at the picture from 2021 1H Financial update. Taxi only account less than 15% of its revenue.More than 70% of its revenue come from its public transport segment. In Singapore the Duopoly (SMRT and SBS) are responsible in our public transport operations. Although there are Goahead and Towertransit, these 2 remain the major players in public transport. The Bus revenue is partially secured with Bus contractual model while Train revenue risk
$YANGZIJIANG SHIPBLDG HLDGS LTD(BS6.SI)$Is YZJ Cheap or Expensive?Based on 10 years Discounted CashflowFair value: $1.92With 10% margin: $1.73With 20% margin: $1.54Based on DCF current price of $1.49 still look reasonable.Based on the photoCurrent price relative to historical average still look reasonable.This is shipping industry supercycle so it would not be surprised if the price can be valued between Highest and Average PB/PE
$YANGZIJIANG SHIPBLDG HLDGS LTD(BS6.SI)$Revenue fall 20% 1H2021 Vs 1H2020Net profit up 39% 1H2021 Vs 1H2020UOB (CIMB) estimateRevenue est: RMB5.4BRevenue actual: RMB 3.9BNet profit est: RMB745m (RMB680-710)Net profit actual:RMB902m Expectations from UOBShipping margin expansion❌Lower trading business✔️