Weekly Macro Themes - Bullish China A-shares on cheap valuations
This week I covered the following topics/ideas:
1. US Dollar: After a sharp rally, the DXY is now overbought, facing a major overhead resistance zone, consensus bullishness, fading seasonal tailwinds, expensive valuations, and monetary/fiscal headwinds.
2. China: Bullish China A-shares on cheap valuations, improved technicals, stepped up stimulus and fading tail risks (initial rebound in property prices), and excess pessimism (global/US).
3. Commodities: Remain bullish commodities on cheap valuations, supply tailwinds, sentiment/positioning signals, multiple bullish technical indicators, and the prospect of global growth reacceleration.
4. Oil & Energy Stocks: Continue to see upside risk for crude oil given sentiment/technicals and robust demand, but arguably geopolitical tail risk has reduced somewhat, and major support line is at risk.
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