04 Feb Market In Positive Bias With Tariffs Development

We saw that the stock market displaying a positive bias which was helped by how the tariffs is developing and how tariffs could impact inflation and corporate earnings.

The most significant events would be Canada received a 30-day reprieve from tariff actions, while China's retaliatory measures seemed more symbolic.

Despite high expectations, President Trump did not engage in talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping. The S&P 500 gained 0.72%, and the NASDAQ rose by 1.35% while DJIA also rose by 0.30%.

December Factory Orders Show Weakness. Job Openings Also Lower

Weakness was seen from the December Factory Orders which came in at -0.9% while consensus was at -0.3% and previous was revised to -0.8% from -0.4%. That was mainly in transportation equipment.

Lower jobs openings also reported from the December JOLTS, it was 7.600 million as compared to previous at 8.156 million which was revised from 8.098 million.

We will be expecting the following economic data, Weekly MBA Mortgage Index at 7am ET, January ADP Employment Change at 8.15am ET, December Trade Balance at 8.30am ET.

The most important to look at is from 9.45am ET, Final January S&P Global U.S. Services PMI with previous at 52.8, at 10 am ET, we will be seeing January ISM Services with consensus of 53.9% compared to previous at 54.1%. 10.30amET, we will have the Weekly crude oil inventories.

S&P 500 Energy Sector Significant Performance

We have seven S&P 500 sectors in the green, with energy leading the pack at 2,80% gain, $Marathon Petroleum(MPC)$ with 6.74% gain, $Valero(VLO)$ also gained 5%, helped the energy sector.

Communication services was helped by $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ which rose 2.56% to a new 52-week high, before reporting earnings.

Information technology sector gained 1.44% with help from Palantir Technologies (PLTR) which surged 23.99% following strong earnings results.

Health care sector was pulled down by Merck (MRK) which dropped by 9.07% due to disappointing earnings.

The consumer staples sector was also dragged down by Estee Lauder (EL) which fell 16.07% after releasing unfavorable earnings results. PepsiCo (PEP) also dragged the sector down after it retreated 4.51% following its earnings report.

Note Yield In Mixed Mode

The decline in rates contributed to the market's positive bias. The December JOLTS report showed a decrease in job openings to 7.600 million from a revised 8.156 million in November.

The 2-year yield dropped to 4.22% from 4.24%, indicating a softening labor market. This did not significantly change expectations for future rate cuts but aligned with the belief that the Federal Reserve's next move could be a rate reduction.

Stocks To Watch

$Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ reported a strong fourth quarter with revenue of $7.7 billion, surpassing expectations by $170 million, and a 24.2% year-over-year growth. Despite a forecasted sequential revenue decline for Q1 2025, AMD projects a 30% year-over-year increase. The company's shares rose by 3% following the report, driven by strong demand for AI chips and a positive outlook on long-term growth.

PayPal Holdings (PYPL) experienced a 12% drop in stock price despite exceeding Q4 earnings expectations and providing strong 2025 guidance. Analysts attribute the decline to high market expectations and concerns over the company's branded checkout acceleration and unbranded payment volume growth. PayPal is focusing on profitable growth, particularly in its Braintree segment.

Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL) saw a post-market drop of over 6% after narrowly surpassing profit expectations in its Q4 earnings. While revenue rose 12% to $96.47 billion, in-line with projections, some units underperformed. CEO Sundar Pichai highlighted advances in AI and strong demand for Google Cloud, but the market reacted to the lackluster performance in certain areas.

PepsiCo (PEP) shares fell 4.8% as the company reported Q4 earnings that highlighted challenges in the salty and savory snack categories. Inflationary pressures and higher borrowing costs have impacted consumer demand, and the company is considering expanding its healthy snack options amid ongoing geopolitical tensions.

Nvidia (NVDA) faces pressure as the U.S. semiconductor market reacts to looming China tariffs. The market is adjusting to potential impacts, with Nvidia being a significant player in the sector.

Marathon Petroleum (MPC) saw a 6.8% increase in shares after surpassing Q4 estimates, buoyed by strong performance in the energy sector, which was the leading sector in market gains.

From the technical, MPC has shown a decent bullish reversal after the bulls managed to stay in the daily uptrend above the 12-EMA and defended the 26-EMA, so I guess the bulls have succeed in making a daily uptrend expansion.

I am looking for more upside coming from MPC, there should be another new highs coming this week or the next. I have not add any energy stocks in my portfolio yet.

$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ soared by 24% following a robust Q4 performance that exceeded Wall Street expectations, driven by accelerating AI developments and strong software demand.

This continue to be one of my best long-term stocks.

Summary

I think the market might suffer a volatility as we saw two huge earnings, AMD and GOOGL which declined despite a considerable ok earnings. I would think there might be a rotation out from tech to energy or consumer discretionary.

I will be watching closely on Amazon and ARM earnings.

Appreciate if you could share your thoughts in the comment section whether you think market could still give a positive bias despite some volatility coming.

@TigerStars @Daily_Discussion @Tiger_Earnings @TigerWire appreciate if you could feature this article so that fellow tiger would benefit from my investing and trading thoughts.

Disclaimer: The analysis and result presented does not recommend or suggest any investing in the said stock. This is purely for Analysis.

# 💰 Stocks to watch today?(7 Feb)

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  • Great job on your latest stock market success! Your commitment to research and analysis is evident in your results.Trade with Tiger Cash Boost Account and use contra trading toenhance your strategies."Welcome to open a CBAtoday and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000with upcoming 0-commission, unlimited trading on SG, HKand US stocks. as well as ETFs.
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  • snuggix
    ·02-05 11:28
    Thanks for the insights
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  • zubee
    ·02-05 11:28
    Great analysis
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