To The Moon

$Brookfield Corp(BN)$

Hi Tiger, The Canada people there are great, but they've made a critical mistake—tying their economy too closely to the United States. Now, they're trapped in a cycle of economic blackmail. We're witnessing a new level of drama unfold.

It's important to understand the kind of person Trump is—he thrives on transactional deals and punishes those who rely on him. And now, Canada is facing a harsh ultimatum: accept the punishment with a smile, or watch your economy crumble. "Sign on the dotted line," he says, "and don’t forget to bow while you’re at it."

Trump has gone off the rails. Just a few hours ago, he issued a major threat to Canada’s economy. Ontario announced a 25% surcharge on electricity, and Trump responded with force: "You’re not even allowed to do that. We don’t need your cars, your lumber, or your energy. And soon, you’ll find out what happens when you fail to diversify trade—you get treated like trash on the sidewalk."

Trump is weaponizing the U.S. consumer market to get what he wants. Will it tank the U.S. stock market? Yes—prices are already falling. Will it hurt the American economy and drive inflation? Absolutely. But at this point, Trump doesn’t care.

Now, he's doubling down on steel and aluminum tariffs against Canada—not just 25%, but a staggering 50%, effective March 12. While he later backtracked, the damage is done. We need to talk about the implications because they are severe. A 50% tariff would devastate Canadian exports to the U.S. The steel industry operates on razor-thin margins, and U.S. buyers would undoubtedly cut back on Canadian steel.

This situation proves that Canada can't remain in economic limbo forever. Even though Trump rescinded the order, this is still economic blackmail—worse treatment than even China receives.

So, what will Markh, the new prime minister, do? Trump is poised to declare a national emergency over Canada's retaliation on electricity, and there’s no telling how far this could escalate. If they try to crush Ontario, I will personally advocate for cutting off their energy supply with a smile. And I urge every province—Quebec, Manitoba, BC—to stand together. The eastern provinces rely on our energy, and they need to feel the consequences.

This isn't just about Canada’s steel industry—it’s about the country's economic survival.

Collapsing Canada's Economy & Auto Sector

One major sector on the verge of collapse is Canada's auto industry. Trump is set to increase tariffs on Canadian auto parts starting April 2nd, a move that could permanently shut down auto manufacturing in the country. But there’s a catch—if Canada were to integrate into the U.S., Trump would lift the tariffs. Essentially, Canada faces a brutal choice: become the 51st state or suffer severe economic punishment. And honestly, I’m not sure which option is worse.

This is an urgent wake-up call for Canada. The economic pressure won’t let up anytime soon. Canada must start diversifying its trade partnerships immediately—working more with the EU, China, Asia, and BRICS. We've been warning about this for over three years: any country that relies too heavily on the U.S. consumer market risks facing this exact kind of economic blackmail.

Trump’s threat may sound extreme, but it carries real weight. The U.S. still has significant leverage over Canada’s auto industry. While Canadian auto exports to the U.S. have declined, they still total over a million vehicles annually, supporting countless jobs and livelihoods.

Canada is now at a crossroads. If they cave to U.S. demands, Trump will continue imposing conditions—starting with a baseline 25% tariff and additional retaliatory measures. But if Canada pushes back, the auto industry could face a devastating collapse. The stakes are massive:

• The auto industry directly employs more than 125,000 people, with an additional 370,000 jobs tied to related businesses.

• This sector makes up 8% of all manufacturing jobs in Canada—a significant share of the economy.

• U.S. tariffs could be severe enough to push Canada into a recession.

• Ontario, in particular, would be hit hardest—vehicles and auto parts account for nearly 20% of its total exports.

If Trump follows through with his tariffs, Ontario could be economically devastated. But if Canada continues to rely on the U.S., they risk being permanently tied to an unpredictable and increasingly hostile economic relationship.

And let’s not forget—Trump still has four more years in office. Today, it’s auto parts. But what if tomorrow he demands steep discounts on Canadian oil? Or forces Canada to sell its gold at a loss?

The road ahead looks bleak, and when dealing with Trump, no scenario is off the table. Canada must act now.

Canada's Dependency Trap

We must recognize the difficult position Canada is in right now. If Trump raises trade barriers on cars, it could lead to deindustrialization in the short term. From 2020 to 2023, Canada successfully attracted nearly $15 billion in auto investments, including from major players like Stellantis, GM, and Ford. But we need to remember Trump’s endgame—he wants to bring manufacturing back to the U.S. A steep tariff on Canadian cars would erase any incentive for companies to set up factories in Canada.

This would hit Toyota, Honda, and other automakers particularly hard, as they manufacture in Canada primarily to export to the U.S. The Canadian market alone isn't large enough to sustain these operations. And that’s exactly why Trump is confident that Canada will fold—the short-term economic pain could be unbearable.

Will this also hurt the U.S. economy? Absolutely. Car prices would skyrocket. If you live in the U.S., you could see an increase of up to $12,000 per vehicle due to tariffs. That’s enough to make many families rethink their purchases.

So, will this be good for the American economy? Not at all. But Trump either doesn’t care or is fully prepared for a U.S. recession. He’s completely sold on the idea that tariffs are the magic solution to everything.

When asked about a possible recession, Trump’s response is telling:

"Recession? You hesitate? I’ll tell you what—I don’t hesitate! We’re going to bring in hundreds of billions in tariffs, and we’ll be so rich you won’t even know how to spend all that money. Just watch—factories will reopen, jobs will come back. It’s going to be great."

We all know tariffs don’t work that way. But for Trump, he truly believes they do. So, Canada—and the world—should brace for more economic retaliation.

Is Trump playing 3D chess while the rest of us fail to see the strategy? Or has his ego completely taken over? Canada has already stated that its retaliatory tariffs will remain in place until the U.S. shows respect. But in reality, the only force left that might stop Trump is the U.S. stock market.

Since the trade war escalation with Canada, the S&P 500 has lost over 8% in a single month, with further declines after the most recent threats. Perhaps the only thing that could slow Trump down is a full-blown U.S. recession, which could finally crash his approval ratings.

Yet, despite the trade war, Trump’s popularity remains surprisingly strong. He still has widespread support and a clear mandate to continue these policies. And that means Canada—and the world—must prepare for even more economic shocks ahead.

Backfire On The U.S.

Trump has a clear mandate to continue his policies, which means he’s dead serious about enforcing reciprocal tariffs on the world. But this could backfire spectacularly. The U.S. might soon face massive global boycotts, not just from Canada but from the world at large. Many American brands are already suffering.

Trump himself recently made headlines by promising to buy a Tesla after its stock price collapsed by over 15%—which is insane. The President of the United States is openly using his influence to prop up the stock of his close friend’s company. How crazy is that?

But Tesla isn’t the only American company at risk. Many U.S. businesses are now facing a wall of resistance from foreign buyers. And here’s the irony—while Trump raises tariffs on imports, he’s also driving up production costs inside the U.S. itself. That means domestic goods are becoming more expensive, and American consumers—already struggling—are relying more on credit just to stay afloat.

And this is where Trump’s problem really begins:

• The U.S. economy is highly dependent on foreign buyers.

• Nearly 30% of all revenue from S&P 500 companies comes from international markets.

• If global demand for U.S. products drops, the stock market suffers—which is exactly what we’re seeing now.

This isn’t just about China dumping U.S. bonds or slowing growth. There’s a real fear that Trump’s trade war is making the world turn away from American goods altogether. It’s the same dynamic we see with China’s collapsing real estate market—when people feel poorer, they spend less.

And here’s something crucial: the U.S. consumer is deeply tied to the stock market.

• Over 40% of American households own stocks or have investment portfolios.

• If stock prices crash, consumer confidence plummets.

• Even a 10-20% market drop is enough to make people feel significantly poorer, leading them to cut spending—just as a Trump-induced recession looms.

The last thing people want to do in an economic downturn is go out and spend money—yet that’s exactly where we’re headed, thanks to Trump’s reckless trade war.

What Next For Canada

Canada has a tough choice to make: start diversifying trade today or risk becoming a de facto extension of the U.S. economy. If they don’t act now, they could be forced into "Fortress America," cutting off trade with China and falling completely under U.S. economic control.

But let’s be real—who do you think will lead Fortress America? It sure as hell won’t be Canada. The U.S. will be calling the shots, just like always.

And let’s not forget—Trump’s administration doesn’t even believe tariffs are inflationary. It doesn’t matter what we think—the only thing that matters is what Trump and his allies believe.

If Trump follows through on his promised tariffs—

• Additional 10% on China this week

• 25% on Canada and Mexico

How much do you think this will cost American consumers? The Peterson Institute estimates an additional $1,200 per household per year.

Yet, when asked about the impact, the response from the administration was predictable:

"We have experience from Trump’s first term, and tariffs didn’t raise prices. It’s a holistic approach—tariffs, deregulation, cheaper energy. Inflation will keep dropping, and we’ll hit the Fed’s 2% target soon."

Translation? Inflation is all in your head. And if prices do drop, it’ll likely be because the economy has collapsed and demand has dried up.

But what do you think? How will Canada respond? Do they even have a real choice left? Let me know in the comments below.

Disclaimer: I want to make it clear that I am not a financial advisor, and nothing I say is intended to be a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Additionally, it's important to remember that there are no guarantees or certainties in trading or investing, and you should never invest money that you can't afford to lose.

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