To The Moon

From April 3 to April 7, gold prices plummeted for three consecutive trading days, with a total decline of 7.08%. However, gold prices quickly rebounded and hit a record high of $3,263.

Due to last week's plunge, investors sell gold to cover margin calls from losses in other assets such as equities.

But soon after, as US Treasuries and the dollar plunged, investors once again turned to gold as a safe haven. Amid escalating US-China tariff tensions, markets feared that China might sell US Treasury assets, pushing yields sharply higher.

1. Major Banks Raise Gold Price Targets to $3500-$4000

$Goldman Sachs(GS)$ raised its year-end $Gold - main 2506(GCmain)$ forecast to $3,700 (previously $3,300), with a projected range of $3,650–$3,950/oz. They noted tail risks could drive prices as high as $4,500 (albeit a low-probability scenario).

$UBS Group AG(UBS)$ revised its forecast to $3,500, citing strong buying potential from Chinese institutional and retail investors.

2. Central Bank Gold Buying Estimates Upgraded to 80 tons/Month, Significantly Higher Than 2022's 17 Tons

Goldman Sachs raised its monthly central bank gold purchase estimate from 70 tons to 80 tons. The bank notes that between Nov 2024 and Feb 2025, actual purchases averaged 109 tons/month, significantly higher than the 2022 average of 17 tons/month.

In an extreme scenario, if central bank purchases rise to 110 tons/month, gold could reach $4,500 by the end of 2025.

JPMorgan forecasts that due to ongoing de-dollarization and global instability, central banks will buy about 850 tons of gold in 2025.

3. Up to RMB 20 Trillion from China’s Insurance Sector Poised for Gold Market

UBS pointed out that Chinese insurance capital has officially entered the gold market, with some institutions already conducting test trades.

Among the 10 approved insurers, the combined assets total RMB 20 trillion. If they allocate the maximum 1%, that's a potential RMB 200 billion (~9 million ounces) into gold.

4. JPMorgan Highlights Faster Pace of $1,000 Increments: Time Cut by 2/3

Gold took 12 years to move from $1,000 in 2008 to $2,000 in 2020. It only took 5 years to go from $2,000 to $3,000 (March 2025). Most recently, gold rose from $2,500 to $3,000 in just 210 days, far quicker than the historical average of 1,700 days per $500 gain.

This leads many to believe that the next psychological milestone, $4,000, could come even faster.

5. But Not Everyone Is Bullish – Cash Might Be a Better Hedge?

While gold is traditionally seen as a safe-haven asset, some analysts argue that cash remains the most reliable crisis hedge.

In times of deep market turmoil, gold is often sold off to raise liquidity, even if it initially rises during early panic phases. During both the 2008 and 2020 crises, gold peaked after equity markets started falling, and its high typically came midway through the equity downturn.

So, even if gold reaches a new high now, another steep sell-off could still trigger gold liquidation.

Some young investors recently borrowed money to trade gold, riding the recent rollercoaster. Is your mindset resilient enough to handle such volatility?

• What’s your gold target price? Based on the trend, could gold break $4,000 by 2026?

• Are you holding cash, or buying gold as a hedge?

• If another 2008 or 2020 crisis unfolds, is your portfolio ready?

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