ASX Marches Toward 10000? Is CBA Overvalued?
The Australian stock market has continued its strong upward momentum, once again setting a new historical record. Last Thursday, $S&P/ASX 200(XJO.AU)$ broke through the 9,000-point mark, reaching an all-time high.
Several sectors posted sharp gains, with many companies delivering earnings that exceeded market expectations. The Big Four banks all closed higher, while consumer stocks performed strongly: Super Retail Group surged 12.34%, and Bramble hit a record high.
On August 12, the Reserve Bank of Australia cut interest rates for the third time this year, lowering the benchmark rate to 3.6%—its lowest level since April 2023—and hinted at the possibility of another 80 basis points of cuts over the coming year. All 11 market sectors rose, led by industrials, consumer, and financials.
How should valuations be viewed after this surge in Australian equities? Is CBA still the best choice?
Taking CBA as an example:
Current share price: AUD 169
FY24 EPS: AUD 5.63
PE: 30x (above the banking sector average of 20x)
Using the Dividend Discount Model (DDM):
Based on last year’s dividend of AUD 4.65, valuation is around AUD 98–101
If considering gross dividend of AUD 6.80, valuation could reach AUD 143.8
📢 Discussion
Do you think the ASX, boosted by rate cuts and abundant liquidity, can reach 10,000 points this year?
With CBA’s high valuation but stable dividends, would you continue to hold or take profits at higher levels?
In the context of consumption recovery, do you prefer bank stocks or consumer stocks?
If you could only choose one, would it be traditional bank stocks or mining stocks? Which ASX companies stood out this reporting season?
👉 Share your thoughts in the comments to win tiger coins, for example:
I believe the ASX will definitely hit 10,000 points this year!
CBA is too expensive; I prefer consumer stocks to catch up.
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
谈到CBA，确实估值已经偏高，但股息稳定、盈利能力稳健，仍然有长期吸引力。不过在当前高位，我更倾向于在价格继续上涨到预期区间时分批获利了结，把资金调配到更具成长性的板块。相比之下，消费股在复苏背景下更有弹性，尤其是零售、旅游和餐饮类公司，受益于内需回暖和消费信心提升，涨幅可能比传统银行股更可观。
如果只能选一只，我个人会倾向消费股而非传统银行股。矿业股虽然有资源价格支撑，但波动性大且高度依赖大宗商品行情，不如消费股受经济复苏带动的增长可预期。财报季中，一些消费类公司表现亮眼，例如零售和日用消费品企业交出的盈利增速超预期，显示出板块的韧性和市场热情。
总结来看，我相信今年ASX有机会冲击10000点，但在高位需要注意短期回调风险。CBA股息稳定，但高估值让我更倾向于部分获利了结，转向消费股布局更具成长性板块。如果只能选一只，我会选择消费股，尤其是那些受益于消费复苏、财报业绩亮眼的公司，而不是传统银行或矿业股。这样既参与市场上涨，又能兼顾稳健和成长。
8月12日，澳大利亞央行今年第三次降息，將基準利率降至3.6%——2023年4月以來的最低水平——並暗示未來一年可能再降息80個基點。11個市場板塊全部上漲，工業、消費和金融領漲。