Weekly | Did Supply Concerns Drive $LYC Shares Up 16%?

As of the close on Friday, $S&P/ASX 200(XJO.AU)$ closed at 8,787.70 on Friday, down 0.13% in the past 5 days.

The S&P/ASX 200 edged up 0.13%, delivering its strongest weekly performance in a year with mining companies leading the gains. Copper craze lifts Australian mining stocks to new highs.

1. $LYNAS RARE EARTHS LTD(LYC.AU)$ +15.52%

  • Global concerns over China's rare-earth export restrictions have intensified. As the largest producer outside China, Lynas is seen as a critical alternative source, boosting its strategic value for Western economies and automakers .

  • The company's partnership with the U.S. Department of Defense to build a heavy rare earths separation plant in Texas highlights its key role in building a non-China supply chain, generating significant investor confidence .

  • Initiatives like a proposed U.S.-backed minimum price floor for rare earths are viewed positively by the market. These policies aim to ensure higher and more stable prices, directly benefiting producers like Lynas .

  • The stock is exhibiting strong price momentum and its earnings outlook has improved. It was recently upgraded to a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy), reflecting positive earnings estimate revisions, which can attract institutional investors .

2. $NORTHERN STAR RESOURCES LTD(NST.AU)$ +9.80%

  • The gold price has reached record levels, this provides a strong tailwind for all gold producers, significantly boosting Northern Star's revenue potential and profitability .

  • A large stake in the company (worth approximately A$1.1 billion) was put up for sale by Gold Fields . The strong investor demand for this block trade, executed at a minimal discount, signals robust market confidence in Northern Star's future .

  • The company received a significant vote of confidence when a major bank, Macquarie, named it its top pick among large gold stocks, replacing Newmont Corporation. This endorsement likely attracted new investor attention .

3. $EVOLUTION MINING LTD(EVN.AU)$ +8.21%

  • The company's stock has demonstrated significant strength, with a notable year-to-date increase . This positive momentum is a key factor in the recent performance.

  • The gold price has been trading near record highs, creating a strong revenue tailwind for gold producers like Evolution Mining .

  • The successful early and under-budget completion of projects like the Mungari mill expansion demonstrates effective execution and enhances future production prospects .

4. $Rio Tinto Ltd(RIO.AU)$ +8.07%

  • Copper prices climbed to a 15-month peak, providing a significant boost to the entire mining sector. This was largely driven by a supply disruption after Freeport-McMoRan declared force majeure at its Grasberg mine in Indonesia.

  • The mining sector index soared 1.7% to its highest level in almost 21 months. As a sector leader, Rio Tinto benefited from this broad upward trend, with its shares advancing 3.6% on September 25th.

  • The stock was also boosted by firmer iron ore prices, attributed to renewed buying interest from China, a key market for Rio Tinto's primary product.

5. $NEWMONT CORP-CDI(NEM.AU)$ +6.68%

  • The stock has demonstrated strong short-term momentum, rising 3.12% in the past week and over 17% in the past month, outperforming the broader market . This strength was reinforced by significant analyst upgrades.

  • The price of gold has reached record highs, with December 2025 futures touching approximately $3,824 per ounce . This provides a powerful tailwind for gold miners like Newmont, as higher metal prices directly and significantly boost profitability .

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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