To The Moon

As of October 1, 2025, at 12:01 a.m. EDT, the U.S. federal government formally entered a shutdown after Congress failed to pass a funding measure. (The Washington Post)

Yet for all the turmoil, markets reacted with a degree of composure. On Tuesday, the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ closed up 0.4%, the $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ up 0.3%, and the $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ eked out a 0.2% gain to mark a new record close. $NVIDIA(NVDA)$

Investors appear willing to discount the brinkmanship in Washington, for now.

There have been 20 shutdowns since 1977, lasting an average of eight days, according to researchers for the Bank of America Institute. Only seven have exceeded that average. The longest shutdown, of course, started in December 2018 during President Donald Trump’s first administration and lasted 35 days.

Shutdown

Shutdown: What It Means & What’s At Risk

• The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that a shutdown could furlough roughly 750,000 federal employees, at a daily cost of nearly $400 million in back wages. (TIME)

• Essential services (e.g. national security, air traffic control, Social Security) will continue operations, though many employees may go unpaid until funding resumes.

• Economic data releases are already being impacted. The Departments of Labor and Commerce have confirmed that reports such as the September jobs report, weekly jobless claims, and other monthly government statistics will be suspended during the shutdown.

This means ADP’s private employment report, scheduled Wednesday, may become the only timely gauge of labor activity in the near term.

Market Reaction & Risks Ahead

• Historically, Treasury yields tend to drift lower during shutdowns as uncertainty and safe-haven demand rise. J.P. Morgan strategists suggest the movement could be muted this time, given the absence of a debt-ceiling standoff.

• The shutdown may delay key economic data, leading markets to reassess expectations for a rate cut in October, especially if the jobs report is postponed.

• Though past shutdowns have been relatively benign for stocks, uncertainty, lack of data, and political risk create fertile ground for volatility.

Conclusion

The U.S. is now in a government shutdown. While markets so far appear to shrug it off, the implications are material:

• Data blackouts strip the Fed and investors of critical inputs.

• Delayed jobs and inflation numbers will make policy decisions murkier.

• Political brinkmanship could reignite volatility if surprises emerge.

In the coming days, expect markets to lean on private signals (like ADP) and forward-looking statements from policymakers, rather than fresh macro prints…

If you found this summary helpful, be sure to like and subscribe to stay informed on the economic trends shaping markets.

@TigerStars @Tiger_SG @TigerCommunity @Tiger_comments @Daily_Discussion @TigerEvents

This summary is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Investors should conduct their own research before making investment decisions.