To The Moon

Markets Power Through Washington Gridlock

Despite the U.S. government grinding to a halt, stocks climbed to fresh records on Thursday.

• $S&P 500(.SPX)$ +0.1%, 30th record close this year

• $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ +0.4%, 30th record close

• Dow Jones Industrial Average +0.2%, 10th record high of 2025

History shows shutdowns rarely hurt equities, and this time was no different. Still, prolonged disruption could strain 750,000 furloughed federal workers, dent household spending, and inject volatility into bonds, the dollar, and equities.

For now, the bigger market story remains the absence of official U.S. economic data, with BLS, BEA, and Census reports suspended. Investors are leaning on private data (ADP jobs, Challenger layoffs) that suggest a “low hire, low fire” labor market, stable but cooling.

AI Spotlight: OpenAI Hits $500 Billion Valuation

AI

• Employees sold $6.6B of stock, valuing OpenAI at ~$500B.

• This leap from its last funding round could fuel future fundraising and an eventual IPO.

• OpenAI’s commitments:

• $300B cloud deal with $Oracle(ORCL)$

• Up to $22.4B with CoreWeave

• $10B contract with $Broadcom(AVGO)$

• Backed by up to $100B from $NVIDIA(NVDA)$

These mega-deals have boosted related stocks and reinforced the AI rally that has already added $21T to U.S. Equity markets since late 2022.

The bubble debate: skeptics point to parallels with the dot-com boom, while optimists highlight AI’s potential to permanently lift productivity…

Conclusion

The shutdown has-so far-barely registered on Wall Street’s radar, with record highs overshadowing political dysfunction. But as official data stays dark, private indicators will play an outsized role in shaping Fed expectations. Meanwhile, the AI-driven rally keeps propelling markets upward, raising the stakes.

Is this sustainable productivity, driven growth, or the makings of another bubble?

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This summary is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Investors should conduct their own research before making investment decisions.