Four Weeks Wiped Out
What started as a quiet Friday turned into one of the ugliest trading days we’ve seen in months.
U.S. stocks went into freefall on Friday after President Trump suddenly reignited the trade war with China, wiping out not just the week’s gains, but the entire month’s progress in a matter of hours. The S&P 500 $S&P 500(.SPX)$ crashed 2.7%, the Nasdaq $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ got hammered for 3.6%, and the Dow $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ shed 879 points, marking the worst session since April for the major indices.
The sell-off kicked off with a presidential social media post threatening a “massive increase” in tariffs on Chinese goods. If that wasn’t enough to spook investors, an after-hours announcement dropped the real bombshell: a 100% tariff on Chinese goods starting November 1. Yes, you read that right: 100%.
Technology stocks, particularly semiconductors, bore the brunt of the damage. The Information Technology sector plunged 4.0%, while the SMH Semiconductor ETF $VanEck Semiconductor ETF(SMH)$ , a key barometer for chip stocks cratered -5.8%.
Individual casualties included:
$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ : Down 4.9%
$Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ : Dropped 7.7%
$Qualcomm(QCOM)$ : Fell 7.3% (also facing a new antitrust probe from Beijing)
Price Action Is Primal
We’ve been closely examining overbought conditions, the market just needed a catalyst, and as suggested on Wednesday, maintaining caution was indicated as crucial considering our premium studies of the Volatility Index $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ . A sooner pullback is beneficial for sustaining bullish momentum in November and December, since continuing with a more overheated market can lead to a more dramatic swing; remember our study of comparable rallies and the double digit corrections when the market extended the exuberance.
Risk Management and Performance Enhancement
The Support and Resistance levels, published every Friday, provide a central weekly level that was backtested last Wednesday for $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ $NVIDIA(NVDA)$. This highlights the value of a risk management approach, particularly when considering buys upon the recovery or holding of the central weekly level (and sells when it is lost), as opposed to a simple buy-and-hold strategy. The results have been impressive:
From April 24th (the date of the bullish signal shared in the paid subscribers’ chat) to October 8th, the outcomes analyzed on Wednesday are:
SPX:
Buy-and-Hold ROI: +22%
Buy/Sell ROI: +25%
QQQ:
Buy-and-Hold ROI: +24.8%
Buy/Sell ROI: +30.24%
TSLA:
Buy-and-Hold ROI: +68.7%
Buy/Sell ROI: +83% (with an alternative +97% by adjusting risk tolerance)
NVDA:
Buy-and-Hold ROI: +87%
Buy/Sell ROI: +111%
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- bohobird·10-12[Speechless][Speechless]LikeReport
