AI Crypto Battle! Bitcoin Plummets: Bullish or Bearish Scenario, PT at?
Today, Bitcoin fell below $100,000, hitting a low of $99,963. In just 30 days, Bitcoin has wiped out one-fifth of its market value.
Bitcoin’s gain for the year is now less than 10%, even the stock market has outperformed it. Instead of being a safe-haven asset, it has become the most fragile symbol of risk.
The bear market has lasted a month. At the $100K mark, when is the real bottom?
On October 10, a sudden U.S.–China tension, leverage wipeouts, and a stablecoin depeg triggered chaos. Nearly $19 billion in positions were liquidated overnight. Since then, institutions have retreated, and retail investors have fallen silent.
Technical analysis:
📈 Bullish Scenario:
If the support holds at $103,500, BTC could bounce strongly toward $110,200, with extended targets at $115,400, $120,700, and $125,000. A strong rejection wick or volume confirmation would support this upside move.
📉 Bearish Scenario:
If BTC breaks below $103,500, a bearish continuation could unfold, targeting $99,400, $94,300, and potentially $88,600.
AI model PK ends: Qwen wins! Can your returns outperform the AI models?
Organizer Nof1.AI wanna test leading large language models (LLMs) in a real-world, dynamic trading environment instead of static benchmark tests.
6 Models: GPT-5, Gemini 2.5 Pro, Claude Sonnet 4.5, Grok 4, DeepSeek v3.1, and Qwen3-Max each has initial capital of USD 10,000 to trade Crypto perpetual futures (BTC, ETH, SOL, etc.).
They can only refer to numerical data (price, volume, indicators, account state) — no access to market news or sentiment.
🏆 Qwen 3-Max — The Discipline-Driven Trader
Executed just 43 trades in 17 days, minimizing fees and noise. Relied on classic indicators (MACD, RSI) and strict stop-loss / take-profit rules.
Acted decisively, with low frequency and high conviction.
🏅 DeepSeek Chat V3.1 — The Quantitative Specialist
Delivered the best risk-adjusted returns (Sharpe ≈ 0.359). Used moderate leverage and diversified across six crypto assets.
Average position held for ~35 hours, demonstrating balanced confidence and control.
❌ Gemini 2.5 Pro — The Over-Traded, High-Cost Operator
Made 238 trades (~13/day), incurring $1,331 in fees (13% of capital).
Reacted to every small fluctuation — lack of conviction and discipline.
❌ Grok 4 — The Emotion-Driven FOMO Trader
Tried to trade based on social media sentiment, but ended up chasing fear and greed.
Bought tops and sold bottoms — effectively mirrored market emotions.
❌ Claude Sonnet 4.5 — The Unhedged Long Bias
Maintained 100% long exposure with no hedging or stop-loss.
Collapsed when the market reversed — rigid, one-dimensional strategy.
❌ GPT-5 — The "Retail Investor"
Overcautious, overthinking, often delayed decisions amid conflicting signals.
Demonstrated that in trading, knowing ≠ doing — execution matters more than reasoning.
Can your returns outperform the AI models?
When will be the right time to buy the Bitcoin dip?
$Strategy(MSTR)$ is down 15% this year — does it still have a chance to bounce back?
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If $103,500 support holds, a rebound toward $110K seems possible; if not, $94K or even $88K could be next. I’m staying patient — no point catching every dip when volatility rules. Waiting for clear signs of reversal feels smarter than reacting to panic.
$MicroStrategy(MSTR)$ dropping 15% this year shows how closely it tracks Bitcoin. Still, I believe its conviction will eventually pay off when sentiment turns. For now, it’s all about discipline and timing. 💥 #Bitcoin #CryptoMarket #TradingMindset
@TigerStars @Tiger_comments
Should we buy the dip? Personally I would if Bitcoin goes below USD 90,000. I would use Dollar Cost Averaging into $iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF(IBIT)$ instead of making a single large purchase. This would reduce the risk of trying to time the market bottom.
I believe that Bitcoin is a good hedge against inflation and Fiat currency devaluation. Bitcoin can also potentially deliver high returns over the long term as its supply is limited.
@Tiger_comments @TigerStars @TigerClub @CaptainTiger @Tiger_SG
Check them in the history - “community distribution“
AI models offer insights, but crypto’s volatility and regulatory uncertainty make short-term predictions challenging, with traditional analysis often more reliable in volatile times
When market sentiment turns overly pessimistic, signaling a potential bottom, and trend reversal indicators like bullish candlesticks or momentum signals appear, it may be a good time to buy the Bitcoin dip
Strategy Inc (MSTR) stock is closely tied to Bitcoin, so its recovery depends on Bitcoin’s performance, with the core business secondary to its crypto strategy, making it risky if Bitcoin falters
The market’s volatility makes timing the Bitcoin dip tough, but a strategic entry could benefit MSTR, though it remains risky due to Bitcoin exposure
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@Huat99
@Snowwhite
我自己观察到，机构资金在10月中旬开始明显撤出，稳定币脱钩更是让市场流动性雪上加霜。190亿美元的清算说明杠杆太高，而比特币此刻的波动，根本不是技术面的问题，而是信心面临考验。
如果从图表上看，103,500美元确实是个关键支撑，一旦守不住，跌到9万甚至8.8万美元都不是不可能。反过来说，若能在这个区间稳住，反弹到11万至12万美元也合理。但我不会急着抄底。
真正的逢低买入时机，应该是市场“没人再讨论比特币”的那一刻。情绪冷却、杠杆出清、散户退场后，那才是聪明钱回来的信号。至于现在？我宁愿错过底部，也不要接刀子。在这个阶段，比特币更像是一面镜子——照出的是人性，而不是价格。
📉看跌情景：
如果BTC跌破103,500美元，則可能會繼續看跌，目標爲99,400美元、94,300美元，並可能達到88,600美元。
比特币今年的涨幅现在不到10%，甚至股市也跑赢了它