Institutions Roll Long Calls to Higher Strike Prices, Slapping Short Sellers in the Face
Another large bullish order appeared for VIX. On Dec 17, the 34 call $VIX 20251217 34.0 CALL$ traded 15,000 contracts for a total value of $1.47 million.
The "200 Million Brother" rolled his long call position from the Nov 21st 165 call $NVDA 20251121 165.0 CALL$ to the Jan 200 call $NVDA 20260116 200.0 CALL$ .
The higher strike price indicates continued bullish expectations for NVIDIA's financial performance, showing no respect for the major short sellers.
However, some large short-term bullish orders adjusted strikes downwards to de-risk: closed the 235 call $NVDA 20251219 235.0 CALL$ and rolled to the 220 call $NVDA 20251219 220.0 CALL$ .
Short sellers are look on this inexplicable pullback. The current expected pullback low is around 180, with extreme short bets being rare, such as buying the 145 put $NVDA 20260220 145.0 PUT$ .
After seeing the order flow, one thought comes to mind: which new money is playing with options? They bought out all the weekly expiring puts.
$AMD 20251107 220.0 PUT$ $AMD 20251107 225.0 PUT$ $AMD 20251107 242.5 PUT$
The battle between bulls and bears for this week's expiring options has reached rare intensity. The open interest rankings show both sides heavily favor opening positions in weekly options, something not seen with other earnings plays before.
Bulls are relatively cautious, only seen above 270 and below 300 $AMD 20251107 270.0 CALL$ $AMD 20251107 300.0 CALL$ , while bears are targeting below 220.
The result of this fierce opening from both sides is a stalemate, with Friday's closing price likely oscillating between 240 and 270. $AMD 20251107 240.0 PUT$ $AMD 20251107 270.0 CALL$
The large bullish orders for Intel belong to the particularly fickle kind, quick to close and run at the slightest sign of trouble: $INTC 20251219 45.0 CALL$ $INTC 20251121 45.0 CALL$
$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$
Institutions rolled long calls, closing the 160 call $PLTR 20251121 160.0 CALL$ and rolling to the Jan 200 call $PLTR 20260116 200.0 CALL$ .
Raising the strike price still slaps the major short sellers in the face, maintaining a normal bullish view on the stock price.
Therefore, the current pullback window appears brief, limited to the next two weeks. After this window passes, the broader market should resume its climb.
One question: It seems everyone currently thinks this way, which raises the possibility that the market might not follow the consensus expectation. There is a second path, one I'm less keen on seeing: the market continues rising first before experiencing a sharper correction.
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