To The Moon

I've been watching $Sea Ltd(SE)$ closely these past few weeks, and I have to admit the recent price action has been a rollercoaster. Last Friday's sharp drop felt like a punch in the gut—watching the stock gap down hard after what looked like a solid setup was frustrating. But seeing it fill that gap almost immediately and climb back gave me some relief. It reminded me why I still hold a decent chunk of my portfolio in Sea Limited: the market tends to overreact to short-term noise, and SEA has a habit of proving the skeptics wrong when earnings roll around. The numbers heading into this report look promising on paper. Analysts are calling for $0.77 EPS and revenue up 30.5% YoY to $5.65B, which would be a nice acceleration from last quarter. What excites me most isn't just the beat potential—SEA has beaten estimates four quarters in a row—but the fact that management reportedly signaled a return to growth investment during the roadshow. After a year of belt-tightening, hearing they're ready to step on the gas again in Shopee and Garena feels like the pivot I've been waiting for. If they can execute without burning cash like it's 2021, that's the catalyst I think the stock desperately needs. That said, I'm not blind to the risks. October was rough across Southeast Asian e-commerce names, and SEA slid more than most. Competition from Temu and TikTok Shop is real, and margins in Shopee are still thinner than I'd like. I keep asking myself whether the market has already priced in a perfect recovery at around $150. The stock is trading at its highest forward multiple in years, and any hint of guidance disappointment could send it right back to the low-100s. Still, every time I think about trimming, I remember how quickly this name can run when sentiment flips—20% gaps to the upside aren't exactly rare for SEA. Personally, I added a little on that post-drop dip last week because I believe the growth story is intact longer-term. Free Fire is showing signs of life again, Shopee's take-rate keeps creeping higher, and SeaMoney could be the sleeper hit if digital banking licenses keep expanding in the region. At $150, it's definitely not the screaming bargain it was at $70 earlier this year, but I'm willing to give management one more quarter to show they can grow the top line while keeping costs in check. If they beat and raise, I think $180–200 is in play by mid-2026. So yeah, I'm cautiously optimistic. I'm not pounding the table telling everyone to back up the truck, but I'm holding my shares and even added a few more. For me, $150 feels like fair value for now—not dirt-cheap, but not "priced for perfection" either. If they deliver another beat and talk confidently about reinvesting in growth, I'll sleep just fine. If they miss or sound hesitant, I'll reassess fast. Either way, earnings this week will tell us whether the recent rally has legs or if last Friday's drop was just a preview of what's coming. Fingers crossed. As a retail investor, I focus mainly on the US and Singapore markets, combining a mix of technical trading and long-term investing strategies. I enjoy analyzing charts, spotting patterns, and making calculated moves based on both market sentiment and fundamentals. While I'm not a professional, I treat my portfolio seriously and continue to learn and grow with each trade. If you're also navigating the markets and enjoy discussing stocks, options, or market trends, feel free to follow me. Let's learn and grow together as a community. @Tiger_comments @TigerStars