SPX Structure: Why Bears Should Stand Ready
The stock market continues moving in euphoric mode, and the question now is: what is coming next? Today, 7,460 was reached by the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ , very close to a level I anticipated since November 2025. We are going to study what to expect from the market moving forward, considering the current overbought conditions and the recent price action.
Regarding our high-probability trades posted last Saturday, a bullish move was anticipated for $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ , targeting 445 for a 3.5% move 🎯. That target was reached and surpassed today. Now, monitoring price action using daily levels is worth considering, as the stock is showing some overextended conditions.
Another bullish setup anticipated was $Apple(AAPL)$ , targeting 300 🎯. That level was the high of the day today, completing a 2.4% move for the week. For $Visa(V)$ , there was an expectation for a bullish reversal upon recovering 321. It reached the bullish target of 327 for a 2.6% move yesterday before the price reversed 🎯. This reversal is why I highlight caution with Apple and Tesla, considering overbought conditions in the broader market.
In Saturday’s Setups Blueprint, there were bearish considerations for $JPMorgan Chase(JPM)$ . JPM reached our bearish target of 296 🎯 for a 1.9% move yesterday before spiking; anyway, the Central Weekly Level rejected the price again yesterday, leading to bearish price action today.
Risk management is key in these high-probability setups, as seen this week with $Eli Lilly(LLY)$ . I anticipated potential “red” before a bullish continuation, but that continuation happened sooner than expected. Any potential short position based on the bearish setup found its risk management trigger at 964 ⚠️, the Central Weekly Level that invalidated the bearish bias. The price has since flipped the setup and reached 1,013 as an extended bullish target.
This week, there was also an expectation for $iShares Bitcoin Trust(IBIT)$ reaching 48.5 for a 6.8% move. That level was reached 🎯 , and IBIT is now mirroring Bitcoin by printing a healthy consolidation after the run we anticipated in the Weekly Compass. Another bearish setup highlighted was $Exxon Mobil(XOM)$ , but like Lilly, it bounced sooner than expected ⚠️. It recovered the Central Weekly Level of 147.9, triggering capital protection, and is now showing indecision at the weekly bullish layer of 151.9.
Other setups to watch were also posted, such as $Costco(COST)$ . The bullish target for COST was 1,025.5 (a 1.7% move), but it has since been extended to 1,042.1 for a total move of 3.3%. Paid subscribers know how important it is to monitor the surpass of a specific annual level we have watched for weeks.
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