Why Visa is an unbeatable stock for the next decade

What kind of company is $Visa(V)$?

Visa Inc. operates as a payments technology company worldwide. They operate a network that enables authorization, clearing, and settlement of payment transactions. To simplify it, every time you swipe your Debit or Credit Card, Visa earns a few cents. While it may just be a few cents, there is 7 billion people in the world, and we swipe our cards a few times everyday. This has made Visa into a Free Cash Flow Giant. 


How are the Earnings?

Earnings has grown at a rate of 13.6% since inception. Revenue for FY2020 was 22B and earnings was 11B. That makes it have a 50% profit margin. Visa is also a free cash flow cow, as they dont have much operating expenses. FCF for FY20 was 15B. 


How sustainable is the business?

Visa has a very strong Moat. It has 50% of market share, more than its competitors Mastercard (25.6%), UnionPay (19.8%) and AMEX (2.5%). Visa is dominant in its field and there has not been any competitors able to take up as much market share as Visa. 


Financial Health of the company?

Visa has very low net debt of only 6.6% due to having a cash balance of $18.5 Billion on its balance sheet. V's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (72.6%). V's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (30.9x coverage). Perfect, flying colours.


Shareholder Returns?

Visa has returned 180% in the past 5 years and its dividend has increased significantly from just $0.22 in 2015 to $1.50 in 2020. Buybacks have been active. From 2015 to 2020, outstanding shares have decreased by 12% due to share buybacks. 


Valuation?

With a discount rate of 6%, and a growth rate of 10%, based on the FCF of 2020, I have determine that the fair price of Visa Inc is $273, 20% undervalued to its current market price. 


Final thoughts on the company:

While I do not believe this company has much room for growth, this company's fundamentals and underlying business is solid as a rock. If you seek for stable dividend and want to invest in a company that is sustainable for the next 10 years, I believe Visa should be among your options. However, if you would looking to grow ur capital for the next 10 years, then Visa may not be the right choice and it has approached its mature years.

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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  • FannyNg
    ·2021-12-31
    I have been using Visa for as long as I remember, I will stay invested in companies that continue to stay relevant.
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  • Zrey
    ·2021-12-31
    If VISA is approaching its mature years then why is it still considered as strong? Its definitely strong for people who bought shares long long ago. So far my 6 months experience has not been good. 
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    • tkj
      the author is right. buying visa stock is about it's dividend payout,  not capital appreciation anymore as it is in a mature market
      2022-01-02
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    • Ultimate Dystopia
      You somehow have got the point, valuation matters. being an investor doesn't mean to buy all strong good company blindly, but to buy at a reasonable price.
      2022-01-02
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    • L1324
      greatz
      2022-01-01
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  • vibzee
    ·2021-12-30
    Visa has returned 180% in the past 5 years and its dividend has increased significantly from just $0.22 in 2015 to $1.50 in 2020. Buybacks have been active. From 2015 to 2020, outstanding shares have decreased by 12% due to share buybacks. All these data show that Visa is definitely a company worthy of our long-term investment.
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    • Kel9670ongReplying toEPK
      well different market has their own popular card payment service provider
      2022-01-01
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    • TakihoReplying toEPK
      challenging markets, but room to grow and maintain
      2022-01-01
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    • EPKReplying toKel9670ong
      Yes - agree, in fact, Amazon UK has stopped to accept VISA due to its high fee and that will be quite a lot of revenue lost to competitors. https://www.bbc.com/news/business-59306200
      2021-12-31
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  • quixy
    ·2021-12-30
    Visa is a payments technology company worldwide. Its services are everywhere and go deep into our lives. It is worth a long-term investment.
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    • CokePepsi
      Agree
      2021-12-31
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    • tig2021
      ok
      2022-01-01
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    • Phyusin
      Yes
      2022-01-01
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  • twizzy
    ·2021-12-30
    In the long run, Visa business still has huge room for growth.
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    • RattythingReplying toKLHuat
      Visa forever!
      2022-01-02
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    • KLHuat
      Especially, with the adaption of crypto currencies payment.
      2022-01-01
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  • LWKJKK
    ·2021-12-31
    Visa though is slow yet steady growth stock. No matter is PayPal, WeChat, Grabpay etc, will require to top-up by credit cards. Visa remains be the top 3 competing with MasterCard and Amex.
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    • LWKJKKReplying toChiweii
      yup you got it
      2022-01-01
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    • Chiweii
      Not forgetting companies that offer BNPL
      2022-01-01
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  • setia100
    ·2022-01-01
    Many young people just using eWallets payment. This is the real threat to Visa n MasterCard 😁
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    • setia100Replying toTxfen80
      Agree...else will be like Kodak.👌
      2022-01-02
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    • Txfen80
      They need innovate
      2022-01-02
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  • RDPD富爸穷爸
    ·2022-01-01
    I like your deep dive into Visa. It is a company I like and a product I use ❤👍. For me, Visa has stable growth while Mastercard has higher growth in the long run. Both are investable 😊
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    • sk5735
      👍🏻
      2022-01-04
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  • blinkix
    ·2021-12-30
    If the market value of Visa is undervalued by 20%, it is really worth our investment at this stage. Thanks for sharing.
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  • Cedric77
    ·2022-01-01

    Visa & Mastercard will be the biggest business failures in 2022https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/chamath-palihapitiya-visa-mastercard-biggest-losers-2022-web3-crypto-altcoin-2021-12

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  • pizzi
    ·2021-12-30
    Paypal, Alipay, WeChat payment, and other mobile payment services are booming. Will they affect Visa's payment business?
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  • Ultimate Dystopia
    ·2022-01-02
    good company but current price is not a good buying point. Would buy it if it slips below 200, which I've actually missed the bus few weeks ago when it was below 200
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    • CMLeong
      [强]
      2022-01-02
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  • Eldenminaj
    ·2022-01-01
    thanks for the love!
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  • wobee
    ·2021-12-30
    Visa has a very strong Moat. It has a 50% of the market share, more than its competitors。That's why we want to invest in this company.
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  • Beli
    ·2022-01-02
    Visa has good cash flow, may consider if goes under $200!
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  • JPStudio
    ·2022-01-01
    V is the pioneer in the payment technology, and yet to see any disruptive company in this area. I'm looking at how V will innovate their business to stay in challenge for long run.
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  • zoomzi
    ·2021-12-30
    Buffett holds shares in this payment processing giant. It is also worth our investment.
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  • Strawberry88
    ·2022-01-02
    Agree. Market share for visa is bigger than mastercard. Both have a downward trend. Will wait for it to drop more to buy some. Dividend is also better than mastercard
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  • HengHuat
    ·2022-01-01
    most of my card are visa too
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    • Rattything
      Yes me too
      2022-01-02
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  • wingcheong
    ·2022-01-01
    Thanks for sharing. Great writeup, stay invested in solid companies like Visa and Mastercard.
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