To The Moon

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Last week, at the end of the Super Central Bank Week, the Federal Reserve decided to speed up debt reduction, while the Bank of England pulled the trigger for raising interest rates. This week, we are about to usher in Christmas Week, because the European and American markets will be closed early due to holidays.It is expected that the overall volatility of the market will be limited.​​

​As shown in the above figure, as my writing, the opening of US stocks is still adjusting, and the VIX panic index has climbed to nearly 20%. This wave of selling is actually related to some related comments made by Fed officials last Friday.​​

​Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said on Friday that after deciding to end the asset purchase program early, the Fed may start raising interest rates as early as the March 15-16 meeting to curb "alarmingly high" inflation.

In addition, Waller also advocatesThe Fed could decide to start shrinking its huge balance sheet at one or two interest rate hike meetings after raising interest rates, allowing maturing securities to flow out.

Xu Dao believes that accelerating debt reduction has become an established fact, and the time node will end in March next year, so it is unlikely that this process will be shortened again. The focus of the market began to turn to whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at the end of debt contraction. How can Waller not only break the news to raise interest rates ahead of schedule, but also reduce the table?​​

​This directly scares the market.As shown in the above figure, the current market price is generally expected that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 25 basis points in May-June next year, while Waller hints that this time node can be advanced to March.

Of course, Xu Dao believes that a more important factor leading to the warming of market risk aversion is that the previous "3B" bill could not be passed around Christmas.​​

I don't know who gave Joe Manchin such courage that these interview comments were not notified to the White House or the top Democrats in Congress in advance. Since Republicans are opposed to this bill, This means that Manchin currently holds the most crucial vote in the 50-50 stalemate in the Senate. If this doesn't work out...... What do you think, If the "3B" bill fails, it means that the mid-term election next year may cause the Democratic Party to lose control of the House of Representatives, which will lead to the defeat of the presidential election in 2024. As the saying goes, those who block people's money are like that. Xu Dao is very worried about his personal safety, so he specially left a photo of him in today's courseware.

Back to the A-share market, today's adjustment is nearing completion in terms of hourly level.If we take advantage of a low opening and bottom tomorrow morning, we are expected to have a short-term low.

In fact, after a lapse of 19 months, Yang Ma also lowered the one-year LPR for the first time, from 3.85% to 3.80%, but remained unchanged at 4.65% in the five-year period. It should be said that in December, the central government lowered the RRR, cut interest rates and raised the foreign exchange deposit reserve frequently. Combined with the interpretation of the previous economic work conference, it is not difficult to see that the shift of monetary policy and the shift of the Federal Reserve are actually "coincidentally consistent", only one to the left and the other to the right, commonly known as counter-cyclical regulation.​​

​Of course, interest rate cuts are essentially good for the stock market, otherwise we can't see the red plate circled in the figure. As for today's adjustment, besides some emotional transmission in overseas markets, it is also related to the big moves made by supervision. In view of the sensitivity of this part of the content, Xu Dao can only make some interpretations on the live broadcast,。

$E-mini Nasdaq 100 - main 2203(NQmain)$   $Gold - main 2202(GCmain)$   $Light Crude Oil - main 2202(CLmain)$  $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2203(ESmain)$   $Volatility Index - main 2112(VIXmain)$

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