To The Moon

In terms of the mainland stock market, although China's import and export volume in 2021 will hit a record high (US$6.05 trillion), both exports and imports have experienced a significant slowdown. The news of CITIC Securities' announcement of large-scale rights issue financing also affected the recent strong The performance of financial stocks, the Shanghai Stock Exchange fell 0.96% to 3521 points; Shenzhen Stock Exchange rose 0.09% to 14150 points. The total turnover of the two cities increased slightly to 1107 billion, but the inflow of foreign capital through the Mainland Stock Connect Shenzhen further fell to only 282 million.

As mentioned in the previous article, if the Shanghai Stock Exchange falls below 3550 points, it will further decline. Yesterday, the Shanghai Stock Exchange opened lower and rebounded, but after hitting a high of 3548 points, it fell again and closed at a close to the low of the whole day, reflecting the reference position for judgment The same applies to the A-share market. However, the author only invests in the A-share medium and long-term through the A50 ETF, and has not traded any A-share stocks, so the short-term trend does not make much sense to the author (only for the performance of Hong Kong stocks). refer to).

Technology and Internet stocks rebounded sharply from lows, and consumer goods stocks also saw selling pressure. However, local stocks performed well, and with the support of the surge in gambling stocks and the narrowing of ATMX's decline at the end of the day, the Hang Seng Index only fell slightly throughout the day. At 46:00, it reported 24,383 points, and the total transaction volume of the two cities dropped to 119.8 billion before the holiday.

The overall view of the market has not changed significantly. Readers can look back at last week’s article for reference. I mentioned to you a few days ago that investors, whether short-term or long-term, should give themselves a macro view to avoid being dragged by the market. Let's go. This time, I want to use the incident of the Macau gambling license amendment as an example of a macro view.

In mid-September last year, Macau announced a public consultation on amending the Gaming Law, and many gambling stocks immediately fell sharply. Regardless of technical trends or fundamental analysis, the market also believes that gambling stocks should be avoided. Kat. However, if you understand the economic environment of Macau and the direction of national policies, you should know that the possibility of foreign investment not being renewed is very low. If you can understand this general direction, irrational and sudden setbacks are a great opportunity to absorb at low prices. And after the news is digested, you can naturally get good profits. Of course, if you can cooperate with short-term technical analysis (the author pointed out in his book that the medium and long-term performance depends on the analysis of fundamental factors; the short-term performance depends on technical analysis) , the return has increased exponentially. For the convenience of everyone, the author will excerpt the original text exchanged in front of the city that day for everyone to see:

"From the content of the consultation, there are three main parts of market concerns: (1) the number of licenses issued; (2) the intervention of government representatives; (3) the restriction of profit distribution.

Let’s talk about the number of licenses first. Currently, there are only three gambling licenses in Macau to GEG (0027), SJM (0880) and Wynn (1128). If a license is issued, there is a risk of immediate suspension of operations. However, I think this possibility is very low. First of all, the Chinese government has expressed its support for opening the market to foreign investment. Juba Influence. Relevant changes will inevitably cause great turmoil, which is not what the Chinese government likes. The biggest possibility is that the number of main brands will increase to meet the demand. As for measures such as government intervention and dividend distribution restrictions, new regulatory actions will of course have a negative impact on business operations. Influence. However, the gambling industry itself is also regulated by the government. Although this amendment has allowed the gambling stocks to have room to reduce their valuations, it should not be as huge as yesterday's decline. As soon as I heard the regulatory news came out, I asked for money but not goods.

Personally, I believe that the real purpose of this amendment is to make the regulation more clearly to deal with the current environment (the bidding for the last three gambling licenses was done in 2001), and on the other hand, it is a political The chips are used as bargaining chips for the Chinese side. Personally, I also tend to believe that after the consultation period on the 45th, the chance of a rebound in the relevant shares after the news becomes clear is not low.