To The Moon

1. Bob Chapek will stay as CEO

I may as well start with the prediction that will upset a lot of Disney fans. CEO Bob Chapek is routinely slammed on social media, particularly by theme-park fans who aren't pleased with recent moves at the entertainment-behemoth's gated attractions. There was even chatter -- likely little more than wishful thinking -- that well-liked Bob Iger would return to the helm.

It's not going to happen. Chapek is staying.

He's done more right than wrong since taking over as CEO just as the pandemic was descending in the U.S., shuttering his theme parks, cruise ships, mall stores, and movie theaters just two weeks later. Chapek has been vilified for moves that will enhance the profitability of its theme parks. Regular visitors may not like it, but it's the kind of stuff that a boardroom will cheer. He’s also emphasizing on Disney’s favourite characters and all the merchandise sales on the run-up to a solid Easter revenue boost.

2. Disney stock will move higher after Easter 

Investors have to be scratching their heads. Outside of Disney+ and, to a certain extent, its media-networks segment, Disney was pounded by the pandemic in 2020. The stock still moved 26% higher. This year has been one of Disney resuming its dominance at the box office and turnstiles, but the stock is trading 16% lower through Monday's close.

Predicting that Disney will move higher in 2022 may not seem like going too far out on a limb. The stock has a positive year far more often than not. However, after the wild gain in an uncertain 2020 and a decline through this year's rebirth, everything is upside down.

Disney will get it right on both ends in 2022. The business will improve, and investors will reap the rewards.

3. The dividend doesn't come back

A lot of the companies that suspended their payouts in 2020 have resumed their distributions in 2021, but Disney has been a holdout. Back in September, Chapek said that bringing back its dividend was something that would happen "sort of in the distant future." The disbursements will come back once Disney improves its credit rating, gets past the COVID-19 crisis, and improves its cash flows.

It's hard to see Disney checking off all three of those boxes in 2022. Disney+ isn't expected to turn an operating profit until fiscal 2024. While that's just one business in Disney's wide portfolio, it will drag down the company's cash flow and credit rating in the process.

The COVID-19 situation has only gotten worse in the past three months. Disney's dividend never amounted to much, and right now, that money is better spent turning the company around.