CPI Tonight - What To Watch; Will Market Close Up/Down?

CPI is reported at 8:30 a.m ET (i.e. 8:30 PM SGT) Wednesday, and is expected to show that inflation has finally peaked.

It is important to stock market as Fed’s rate hike decision mainly depends on this key data.

1. CPI in line with expectations?

CPI in June may be the peal this year as food and energy showed significant year-over-year declines in July.

Bloomberg expects CPI at 8.7% in July.

Analysts polled by Reuters forecast inflation at 8.9% in July.

Overall, the CPI for July is likely between 8.7% and 8.9% because of the fall in crude oil prices.

The market forecast for CPI is basically the same, so tonight's focus is mainly on Core CPI.

2. What is Core CPI?

Core CPI is the CPI – energy and food prices.

Core CPI is still expected to be higher than June on a year-over-year basis, gaining 6.1% from June’s 5.9%.

commodity prices andsupply chain issues are not major concerns for July CPI. However, services inflation remain to be a question as housing and the labor market don’t show positive signs.

The recent 2 Bills also means more money circulating in the market.

Aneta Markowska, chief economist at Jefferies said:

You still have a problem with services inflation, and that’s driven by shortages in housing and labor. That’s not going away any time soon, until the Fed manages to destroy demand and that hasn’t happened.

3. The broader market rises to pressure levels - closing up or down tonight?

Jose Torres, senior economist at Intrust Securities, said

The S&P 500 has a "very strong resistance" at 4175, which the index hit and has been retreating since Monday.

4170-4250 has acted as a rally pivot point many times. 

In late May rally, $S&P 500(.SPX)$ rose to the pressure level and then fell. If $S&P 500(.SPX)$  can rise above current resistance level (4170-4250), the next strong resistance level will be at 4500/4600.

When the historical CPI data - 9.1% was released last month, the market did not plunge and rose after the bell.

On the flip side, the market won't necessarily rise today even the CPI and core CPI meets expectations.

Will this pullback in US stocks end tonight?

Will you just keep watch or buy the dip when market plunges again?

Follow me and comment here to win tiger coins~

# Q2 Earnings Season

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  • BenjiFuji
    ·2022-08-10
    I am guessing that the CPI will be within expectations and the market will soar. However if the market dips i will happily fire away. What about you? [Sly]
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  • Boo2020
    ·2022-08-10
    hopefully it will dip, then I can buy moreee
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  • RDPD富爸穷爸
    ·2022-08-10
    I'm hoping for a pullback to buy on dips. Let's see [Happy]
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  • ___ _
    ·2022-08-10
    This has happened so many times this year that I lose interest in monitoring.  To me it's pretty simple.  If dip, add. If  rise,  consider to take profit.  If trade sideways, do nothing. 
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  • SG 88
    ·2022-08-10
    If CPI remains high my guess is markets going to go downtrend as everyone expect another big interest rate hike come Sept. If so time to "load your bullet up" & start hunting for great stock [Wow]
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  • koolgal
    ·2022-08-11

    US stocks roared to a stunning close today with all 3 US Indexes closing higher.  The Nasdaq index is back into Bull territory and ending the longest Nasdaq bear market since the financial crisis.

    This exciting uptrend is all because CPI report shows that inflation has eased to 8.5% in July!   The markets are now pricing in a lower interest rate hike.

    However we are not out of the woods yet as inflation is still high.

    Let's hope this exciting rally will continue and the Bull will be back in no time!

    @Tiger_chat  @TigerStars  

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    • EHGReplying toEHG
      Like
      2022-08-14
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    • koolgalReplying toyeetmin76
      My pleasure
      2022-08-13
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    • koolgalReplying toTYen
      Thanks
      2022-08-13
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  • Tiger_comments
    ·2022-08-15
    Dear Tigers, the coins had been sent for your wonderful comments. Remember to check your tiger coins ~@Huiz84 @GrumpyDino @SR050321 @Investforget @koolgal @Brocco @Cris0 @JL28168 @cfybao @LMSunshine @Big Cat @Spa @Mrzorro @MSing @Kaixiang @JZ8 @爱上投资学 @Thalos @GordonLee66 @SG 88 @Venus_M @RDPD富爸穷爸 @Boo2020 @StickyRice @Success88 @highhand @phagefish @phagefish @BenjiFuji
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  • LMSunshine
    ·2022-08-11
    Thanks @Tiger_chat for the excellent summary!US stocks will bounce back up after a few bearish nights if inflation has peaked.Will have to keep watch as my cash is stuck in other stocks already😓
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  • Kaixiang
    ·2022-08-10
    CPI expected to end the pullback after tonight. Inflation has eased as expected with drop in oil and commodity prices. Expect further upside to 2H2022
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  • GordonLee66
    ·2022-08-10
    The US market will pull back tonight. I will be buying the dip snd hold till mid September before the next Fed Reserve meeting.
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  • StickyRice
    ·2022-08-10
    This is the day that probably will decide the fate of how August will turns to be positive or negative. If it’s goes down from last month, we’ll see the market is cheer and go up. So the opposite
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  • highhand
    ·2022-08-10
    Market at resistance now, see s&p 500
    Uptrend not broken
    Any good or reasonable news will be reason to continue trend
    If cpi is > 9.1% in Jul, will bring market down
    If dip, wait a few days to buy in
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  • SR050321
    ·2022-08-11
    Will buy good co in the dip, significant dip is precious, like big sale 😍 when price pick up, have tha choice to sell some and keep some, buy back if low, repeat [Grin] feel bored if price stagnant😅
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  • Cris0
    ·2022-08-11
    Hopefully nope. Going to buy the dip soon. Generally feel that the worst month should be over already
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  • JZ8
    ·2022-08-10
    I think the market will be slightly better than yesterday. The past CPI is already very high, hopefully this time round will have a slight reduction. I will just keep watch, not going to buy any dip.
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  • 爱上投资学
    ·2022-08-10
    CPI下跌📉无疑对市场是个好消息,美联储在9月份加息力度大大降低或低于75bps!这对市场起到振兴的作用,所以今天会以涨📈收盘!!
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  • Thalos
    ·2022-08-10
    I think overall it will contribute a positive sentiment. Counters that have rallied significantly might not see immediate rise and those undervalued shares might get a fair chance to catch up
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  • Success88
    ·2022-08-10
    I believe the data should be stready come down. Due to oil price and energy price improve come down. i foreseen 8.1 to 8.4 this type of figure
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  • 己所不欲
    ·2022-08-10
    Market sentiment will improve after the release of CPI.  Knowing the actual number is easier to bear than playing the guessing game. I am at all times ready to buy the dip.  But doubt that will happen
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  • Mrzorro
    ·2022-08-10
    Hopefully can rise or temporary rebound? Lets see...
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