Turbulent Times Ahead, Navigate Smartly

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Fresh losses in the stock and bond markets following this week’s Federal Reserve meeting make one thing clear for investors: Be prepared for still more turbulence ahead.

The central bank this week raised the federal-funds rate by 0.75% for an unprecedented third-straight meeting, taking the funds rate target to 3.0% to 3.25%. At the same time, Fed officials indicated they expect continued rate increases that could take this key short-term rate to 4.6% next year.

In addition, while it sometimes can be difficult for investors to interpret what Fed officials mean, the message was clear when Chairman Jerome Powell spoke following the decision to again aggressively raise interest rates: The Fed will do what it takes to get inflation down from 40-year highs. And to do that will mean slowing down the economy.

“We have got to get inflation behind us. I wish there were a painless way to do that, there isn't,” Powell said. That pain, he said, includes higher rates, slower growth, and a weaker jobs market.

And while Powell didn’t say it directly, that increasingly is expected to include a recession, not just a so-called soft-landing where the economy cools off but doesn’t shrink.

“As an investor it’s not an easy message to hear,” says Chris Konstantinos, chief investment strategist at the RiverFront Investment Group.

Here are six takeaways for investors:

Rates Will Keep Rising

There clearest takeaway from the Fed meeting is that short-term interest rates will continue to rise, and they will keep raising rates until officials are comfortable with the idea that inflation has really turned the corner and is heading lower.

“The Fed has been surprisingly clear about the direction it’s going to take,” says Jason Trennert, chief investment strategist at Strategas Research Partners. While the Fed officially has a dual mandate of delivering maximum sustainable employment and stable prices, “for all intents and purposes, the Fed has only one mandate right now and that’s price stability.”

Currently, the Fed’s projections suggest that the federal-funds rate will rise by another percentage point by the end of the year, an exceptionally fast pace for rate increases by historic standards.

In a bit of a twist, the fact that the economy has remained as healthy as its been— especially the job market—may mean the Fed will feel more comfortable staying on an aggressive rate hike path. In addition, the fact the rates have been lifted as much as they have means that when it comes time to lower rates, there is also plenty of room to bring them down, says Matt Freund, head of fixed income strategies and co-chief investment officer at Calamos Investments.

“The Fed generally believes they have room to tighten without lasting damage,” he says. Freund adds that he believes the Fed will be able to slow down its rate hikes as we move into next year.

A Recession Is Looking More Likely

It’s not just Powell’s comments that have market watchers looking for a more meaningful economic slowdown. The warning signs in the markets and the economy are increasingly flashing yellow about the potential for an economic downturn. (Technically, gross domestic product growth has already been negative for two quarters, which is generally seen as a recession.)

In the bond market, short-term interest rates are now meaningfully above long-term interest rates, which is known as an inverted yield curve, and is historically a strong indicator a recession is coming.

In the wake of the Fed meeting, “We’ve seen further inversion, which suggests that the probability of a hard landing is increasing,” says RiverFront’s Konstantinos.

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  • ThaiGirl
    ·2022-09-25
    The perfect storm may be devastating to make the richmuch poorer.
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  • YvetteGunther
    ·2022-09-24
    Do you think the market will break through the June low?
    Reply
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  • YeddaJohnson
    ·2022-09-24
    There is not too many room to raise the rates.
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  • XantheJuliana
    ·2022-09-24
    The first mission of FED is ro reduce the inflation.The market is risky.
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  • keane3921
    ·2022-09-30
    Gd
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  • Yx tan
    ·2022-09-26
    Ok
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  • Ninja Turtle
    ·2022-09-25
    gd
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  • miaumiau
    ·2022-09-26
    👍
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  • CGE
    ·2022-09-26
    like
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  • Blessedme
    ·2022-09-26
    noted
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  • CoffeeNew
    ·2022-09-26
    o k
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  • Lanfong54088
    ·2022-09-26
    Nice
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  • Jessiechew
    ·2022-09-26
    ok
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  • LP Eva
    ·2022-09-26
    [微笑]
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  • whitesnake
    ·2022-09-26
    👍🏻
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  • pinky557
    ·2022-09-26
    cool
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  • Jeff Ng
    ·2022-09-26
    Ok
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  • Pjun
    ·2022-09-26
    wowo
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  • Siti Saniah
    ·2022-09-26
    ok
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  • WEE Yang
    ·2022-09-25
    Ok
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