Can ChatGPT replace investment decisions?

Backgrounds

ChatGPT is a chatbot software launched by OpenAI in November 2022. ChatGPT can continuously interact with humans in most fields, and when implemented, it became the fastest-growing consumer application in history.

Just two months after ChatGPT was launched, its monthly active users exceeded 100 million at the end of January 2023, making it the consumer app with the fastest user growth rate in history. According to Sensor Tower data, it took 9 months for TikTok to reach 100 million users, while it took 2 and a half years for Instagram.

In the opinion of many people, ChatGPT is more like a god: it can be a programmer and directly help you write programs; it can also help you with business planning and are clearly organized; it can even write articles and papers with strict logic...

So is ChatGPT really that amazing? And can it replace investment decisions?

For a brief summary of its advantages and disadvantages, please refer to ↓

Strength

1. ChatGPT optimizes the accuracy of matching between questions and answers, and the user experience is far better than traditional search engines

2. ChatGPT has strong command learning ability. The task instructions it can understand include not only answering questions, but also information retrieval, article writing, problem solving, programming, composing, etc.

3. ChatGPT can accurately capture the meaning of contextually determined pronouns and accurately identify intentions in multiple rounds of conversation

Disadvantages

1. Due to model training methods, it is difficult to update data in real time

2. The cost of a single search is too high. It is estimated that the cost of generating a piece of information is around 1.3 cents, which is 3 to 4 times that of traditional search engines

3. The content generated by the statistical model is real and mixed, making it difficult for users to discern

4. Currently, ChatGPT can only do the most basic popular science research, and content that is highly subjective is still difficult to replace. Every field has its own set of research logic. Currently, ChatGPT has not been able to master

5. In terms of emotional companionship, it is currently impossible to provide scenario-based, professional and empathetic services like real people

What is the impact in the field of investment?

Hou Yanjun, founder of Houshi Tiancheng Investment, said in a small group in the morning, “In the field of investment, artificial intelligence can only do auxiliary work in the future. Investing is far more complicated than artificial intelligence.”

Hou Yanjun said that the essence of the problem still lies in physics. Everyone has heard about the three body questions. Mathematically, when the three rigid spheres collide, the trajectories are not solved in the exact sense of the word. The only thing the Three Bodies can't deal with when they attack Earth is that scientific and technological means are unable to detect human thought processes. Because the human brain has hundreds of billions of nerve cells, the mind is generated by the electrical signals of neurons. There are hundreds of billions of interlinked circuits that link each other, more than the number of stars in the universe combined. This is just one person. However, the stock market, futures, bonds, etc. are made up of hundreds of millions of people's brain circuits. Therefore, from a biological or physical point of view, investment cannot be solved by artificial intelligence. This is even more true from a philosophical point of view. Does one artificial intelligence generate an investment idea, or do all artificial intelligence generate an idea? So is there still a market? There won't be a market.

Another founder of quantitative private equity in Shenzhen said that it can bring little help; after all, it can only write simple strategies. Things that are strategically detailed still have to rely on expertise and experience to revise them in a timely manner.

A brokerage investor said, “When customers lose money and want comfort, ChatGPT's answer makes sense, but it's obviously not cool. After AI, all content based on data, history, and statistical rules will probably be realized, and another technological innovation that will change the world will begin. Many positions will be replaced, and it is unknown whether humans are owners or being crushed by AI; as investors, you need to be better at communicating and communicating with customers heart and soul, because technical value can be easily replaced, but there is no substitute for genuine communication and down-to-earth companionship.”

Summary

1. ChatGPT cannot completely replace traditional search engines in the short to medium term, and it is also difficult to change the current competitive pattern of the global search engine market. However, it is expected to accelerate the search engine evolution process and form a new search engine pattern dominated by traditional search engines and complemented by ChatGPT models in the medium term, which will lead to a significant increase in AI investment by traditional search engine giants such as Google.

2. The pangasius effect generated by ChatGPT is expected to drive the overall acceleration of the global AI industrialization process and the full advent of the AI-generated content era.

3. The success of ChatGPT will not bring disruptive newcomers to the search industry, but it will push search giants such as Google to speed up the iteration of big language models to support the new pattern of traditional search engines.

4. AI can do auxiliary work in the field of investment, but it cannot replace the work of investors and investors.

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# AI hype begins to fade or just a temporary retreat?

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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    ·2023-02-11
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    ·2023-02-09
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    ·2023-02-09
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    ·2023-02-09
    Really?
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