My view after FOMC meeting
The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point increase in interest rates, bringing the benchmark rate to a range of 4.5% to 4.75%, in line with market expectations, but the focus was on the content of Powell's press conference remarks, with highlights including.
* Expected to raise rates two more times to keep rates at restrictive levels, will update its assessment of the path of rate increases in March, and the terminal rate is expected to remain above or below 5%, with no rate cuts this year.
* This is the first time I think: "anti-inflation has begun. (that the disinflationary process has started)
* The optimistic view is that the US inflation rate can fall back to 2% and there will not be a really serious recession, nor will it lead to a significant increase in the unemployment rate, releasing signals of an expected "soft landing" of the US economy.
What is surprising this time is that against the backdrop of a major rebound in U.S. stocks, Powell has not chosen to be on the hawkish side, but instead has released a more optimistic view of the economy and inflation decline, which has led the market to wonder if the Federal Reserve is already preparing to stop raising or even lowering interest rates.
But as investors, we still have to pay attention to the economy will continue to be affected by the lag of interest rate increases, including the technology industry continues to massive layoffs, retail sales data decline, manufacturing data decline, the company lowered its earnings guidance; in addition, with the unsealing of China, copper prices, oil prices have risen significantly, may also be involved in the market on the re-emergence of inflationary worries.
The bull market restart before the "first squat then jump", in the end will not squat? Or will the first run short to the air force surrender? This can only be observed as we go, but I will choose to continue to adjust to the action of the high.
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- Maria_yy·2023-02-05Higher interest rates will only lead to further layoffs in the tech sectorLikeReport
- ElvisMarner·2023-02-05I thought the FOMC would cut rates by the end of the yearLikeReport
- BellaFaraday·2023-02-05So are they going to raise rates two more times in the future?LikeReport
- MortimerDodd·2023-02-0525 basis points is not a big deal for the stock marketLikeReport
- HilaryWilde·2023-02-05A fall in inflation is already a likely eventLikeReport
- TKPK·2023-02-02thanks for sharingLikeReport
- alexj·2023-02-02hopefully the inflation is tamedLikeReport
- THB·2023-02-02okLikeReport
- Porky9696·2023-02-02😱LikeReport
- Horsey·2023-02-02okLikeReport
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- DuckBot·2023-02-02sui1Report
- zeeling·2023-02-02Gr eatLikeReport
- Rookie22·2023-02-02Good luckLikeReport
- OpenSesame88·2023-02-02niceLikeReport
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- EY12·2023-02-02likeLikeReport
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