To The Moon

Buy a little bit of AMD doomsday tonight and bet down 6%:

​$AMD 20221118 68.0 PUT$ 

The reason is that the call/put ratio of cboe climbed to a high again today, but from the perspective of the structure, it is not completely one-way bearish, but bear spread. This strategy has been published before, which is an arbitrage strategy for institutions to cope with big fluctuations:

Options Insights Ⅹ: What Strategy To Use When Stocks Won't Rise Much?

If you are in the habit of watching options moves on a daily basis, you can guess that the put call ratio is out of balance again just by looking at the moves on each underlying index.Deep in-price strategy is not feasible in imitation, because the price difference is very large, so the successful arbitrage needs to calculate the price and be able to deal, which is more suitable for institutional application. But the timing of these carry orders is interesting.

Take AMD, for example: $AMD%2020230120%20120.0%20PUT$ $AMD 20230120 120.0 PUT$  ,Combined with the stock price k line, it can be seen that the next day of the order will have a 6% plunge or rise, from the probability of the plunge is more than the rise.

As luck would have it, yesterday AMD's strategy portfolio order volume surged, so there is a high probability of a big move today, which is a good time to use this week's expiration options to amplify leverage play. But given the nature of options expiring that week, it's recommended to buy them as lottery tickets.

Think long before the opening is to buy call or buy put, both directions are possible. After all, Nvidia's earnings today look a lot like Apple's on Oct. 28, and there is a possibility of a short market, so buying either way is an option:

• $AMD%2020221118%2076.0%20CALL$ $AMD 20221118 76.0 CALL$ 
• $AMD%2020221118%2068.0%20PUT$ $AMD 20221118 68.0 PUT$ 

In addition, a friend provided a big single clue, someone layout Ctrip call$TCOM%2020221216%2035.0%20CALL$ $TCOM 20221216 35.0 CALL$ , bought 1 million. It may be to prepare for the relaxation of China's epidemic prevention policy