To The Moon

The US midterm election finally reached its first milestone over the weekend, when Democrats won the 50th Senate seat, giving them control of the chamber for the next two years.

19 seats remain undecided in the House of Representatives race, but counting is nearing an end. If the final tally is consistent with the current advantage of each district, Republicans will get 222 votes and the Democrats 213 votes.

The difference between the two sides is only nine votes, and Republicans control the House of Representatives by a narrow margin.

Georgia is very important for Democrats

The race for the Senate is not over yet, with Georgia heading to a play-off on December 6th.

In the first round of voting, the Democratic candidate of Georgia won, so the runoff on December 6th should have a better chance. But now Democrats have won the Senate, it may stimulate centrist voters in Georgia to stay away or switch, and the outcome in Georgia may be uncertain.

Some would argue that Democrats have 50 votes in the Senate anyway, so this one vote doesn't really matter. But in fact, this vote has a great effect on Democrats. Because when Democrats controlled the Senate by 50 votes, Senator Joe Manchin of West Virginia used his own vote to threaten Biden and Democrats all the time, making Biden very passive.

If Georgia wins this vote, then Democrats will have 51 votes and will no longer be subject to the threat of Manchin.

Trump Caused Republicans to Lose the Senate?

Democrats did surprisingly well in the mid-term elections (expectations were too low), and they did well nationally. So this time Republicans hype about voter fraud has been silenced. If you lose Arizona, you can say cheating, but if you lose Arizona, Pennsylvania and Nevada, you can hardly say that.

The New York Times said Republicans mid-term election performance was the worst for opposition parties in decades. So Republicans are now looking for a scapegoat. The most important question is whether Trump is the reason why Democrats are enthusiastic about voting.

In fact, many Republicans are already blaming Trump for their party's dismal performance in the midterm elections. But I don't think we should jump to conclusions so easily. We should still look at the data.

Trump has supported many candidates, some have won and some have lost. Don't simply attribute the losses directly to Trump. Here are the election results for senators and governors in the most competitive states. All references to Trump's support refer to whether he supports the Republican candidate. 

In New Hampshire and Georgia, Republicans won the governors but lost the Senates, both by big margins. The governors of both states have distanced themselves from Trump, especially the relationship between the governor of Georgia and Trump. So judging from the results of these two states, Trump is really bad for Republicans.

In Nevada and Arizona, Trump-backed governor candidates did better than Senate candidates on the same ballot. For example, the governor of NV is R+2.3 and the senator is D+0.7. The difference is 2.3+0.7 = 3.0.

This reflects the ambivalence of voters: they want Republicans to manage the affairs of the state, but do not want them to run the country. So it can also be argued that they don't like Trump (his influence on them at the national level).

The Wisconsin results could also reflect Trump's problems, since Johnson won as the Republican candidate. Despite Trump's endorsement, he has not been that close to him. Tim Michels, the candidate for governor whom Trump had endorsed, was trounced.

In the most hotly contested states, Trump bears some of the blame for Republican Party's losses. Voters preferred Republican governors to Republican senators, and Republican governor candidates who distanced themselves from Trump won big.

Bottom Line

Trump spent the weekend lambasting Republicans in his own media, especially FOX News, began its campaign against Trump, arguing that the party must now break with him. Republicans can't win against Democrats with Trump.

Of course, the appeals of the media or politicians are useless, and Trump got out of the siege in a state of total Republican blockade. Any politician who tried to beat him, like Cruz, Rubio, Jeb Bush was defeated by Trump.

Will today's DeSantis be better than those three? The key still depends on the public opinion of Republican voters.

The next question is, have Republican voters begun to abandon Trump? How high is the support rate of Trump's party voters?