To The Moon

From this week's upcoming data expectations, the market should be early to cash in on the positive, so this week's trend is likely to be similar to last week, at worst will not fall. So continue with last week's strategy: do index put spread, and TLT sell put.

Looking at the specific data, Powell's last speech before the December FOMC meeting was held on Wednesday night. I think it is likely to be consistent with the central idea conveyed by the FOMC in November, that is, to slow down the rate hike pace and extend the rate hike cycle. There is still a high probability that the media will continue to pick dovish statements out of context, the market may be volatile but not large, the S&P 500 is expected to remain between 3900 and 4000.

After the speech, the PCE on Thursday is expected to be 0.3% versus 0.5%, which is still positive for the market, or the market will continue to wait for the non-farm data before deciding the direction of volatility.

Finally, there's the big data, Friday's non-farm payrolls and unemployment figures for November. Non-farm forecast 200k, last 261k; The unemployment rate is expected to remain the same as last month at 3.7 percent. The market is now pricing in a 74.7% chance of a 50 basis point rise in December and a 25.3% chance of a 75 basis point rise. In fact, this time the market pricing expectations of interest rate hike are different from the previous several times, the data generally exceed the expectations only slightly increase the probability of interest rate hike of 75 basis points, the data below the expectations only continue to consolidate 50 basis points, and the possibility of data exceeding the expectations is very low.

Therefore, from the perspective of expectation, it is highly likely that the market will get out of the positive trend first and move to the positive landing trend after the data released on Friday. However, I think the fluctuation range of the positive landing may be relatively limited even if the positive landing. For details, you can refer to the trend of the US dollar.

So combined with the above ideas, this week or to sell put the main, according to the future of personal views of different and add a leg composition strategy.

If the future bearish can do the calendar put spread, no idea about the future can do the bull put spread strategy.

The bull put spread:

• sell $DIA%2020221202%20335.0%20PUT$ $DIA 20221202 335.0 PUT$ ​
• buy $DIA%2020221202%20330.0%20PUT$ $DIA 20221202 330.0 PUT$ 

Calendar put spread:

• buy $DIA%2020221202%20335.0%20PUT$ $DIA 20230120 330.0 PUT$ ​
• sell $DIA%2020221202%20330.0%20PUT$ $DIA 20221202 330.0 PUT$ 

And TLT's sell put: $TLT%2020221202%20101.0%20PUT$ $TLT 20221202 101.0 PUT$