Thanksgiving week is a slow week for trading, so we're closed tomorrow and we'll continue our casual chat today.
Pre-market initial claims for the week ended November 19 (the number of people in line for unemployment benefits at state unemployment agencies) came in at 240,000 versus 225,000 expected versus 222,000.
The higher-than-expected job losses represented another step in the Fed's fight against inflation, but indexes didn't show much reaction to the data, either jumping or plunging in joy. Given that all three indexes closed above 1% yesterday, the market has finished early again, as expected with this kind of unemployment data. Good landing after the collapse has been very give face.
Considering that there are meeting minutes tonight, tomorrow will not open, more than half of the traders also went to watch (bet) the ball, suggest tonight's trade light, steady.
Continue to add on TLT trading strategy:
Between 2004 and 2020, the market experienced two rate hikes. As the chart shows, the yellow bar represents interest rates, the green line represents the TLT trend, and the red line is the S&P 500. You can see that between the two hikes the S&P 500 rose and the TLT fell. This stock market performance and this rate hike is inconsistent, because the macro fundamentals are different. But the TLT trend is only related to Treasury rates, so you can refer to it.
Then TLT started to rally at the end of two rate hikes, so if the end of the year is the end of Fed rate hikes, then next year TLT will be a more certain opportunity.
In terms of options volatility, put seems to have a lot of volume, but it's still dominated by arbitrage. The only two things I care about are LCID and LYFT:
LCID:$LCID%2020230120%2015.0%20PUT$ $LCID 20230120 15.0 PUT$ &$LCID%2020230120%2015.0%20CALL$ $LCID 20230120 15.0 CALL$
Deep price inside straddle, the direction is strongly bearish. Making that list means Tesla still isn't going anywhere. Otherwise, the Tesla rally would take the entire auto sector higher.
LYFT:$LYFT%2020230120%2012.5%20CALL$ $LYFT 20230120 12.5 CALL$ &$LYFT%2020230120%2015.0%20CALL$ $LYFT 20230120 15.0 CALL$ . Call spread strategy. Could be betting on a rebound down low.
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- MaudNelly·2022-11-24Happy Thanksgiving week and have a nice trip bro. Need a little rest.3Report
- ClarenceNehemiah·2022-11-24Will higher-than-expected job losses make FED take slowly step on hike rate?3Report
- AndreaClarissa·2022-11-24Let me care more about price of LCID,seems like more rise will be on the way.2Report
- limnorth·2022-11-24Happy Thanksgiving!3Report
- AricLo·2022-11-23okay thanks for sharing3Report
- 多鱼先生·2022-11-28可以分享 PTP 吗?我发现好像很多VIX 的ETF都属于 PTP 架构… 有哪些不是呢?LikeReport
- fxaw·2022-11-23your option choices are interesting [Like]2Report
- vinH·2022-11-24Thank you for sharing.1Report
- nenevader·2022-11-25gggLikeReport
- AlvinLau·2022-11-25Thanks sharingLikeReport
- szueyann·2022-11-24okLikeReport
- RiYeon·2022-11-24👍🏻LikeReport
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- CCLEE·2022-11-24[smile]1Report
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